977
FXUS65 KABQ 250233 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
833 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WHICH WILL THREATEN FLASH FLOODING, AS
WELL AS SOME MAIN STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF
MOISTURE/RAINFALL WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO EAST
CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING THE ROSWELL, RUIDOSO AND CLOVIS AREAS
OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
WE ARE CONTINUING TO WATCH A DISTURBANCE LIFT NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, AS IT SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE GREATEST AREA OF CONCERN REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
WHERE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FAVORS
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHEN
COMBINED WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR, TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WPC HAS UPGRADED PORTIONS OF LINCOLN
AND CHAVES COUNTIES TO A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL RATES
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR, AND LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 2-4 INCHES.
GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
48 HOURS, EVEN MODEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. IN FACT, THE HREF AND RRFS SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE OF 100
YEAR QPF ARI EXCEEDANCE THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ELSEWHERE WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING UNTIL A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO MOVE
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE EXISTING FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO UP INTO QUAY COUNTY THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW MORNING.
AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL LOW ROTATING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TOMORROW BEFORE A DECREASE
IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MORE ON THIS
BELOW!
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY IN TANDEM
WITH 591 DAM RIDGE, KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET AND WARMER THAN WE
HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS QUIET PERIOD
WILL BE BRIEF, AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG IN FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION,
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AND MORESO ON MONDAY.
BY THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRENDS BEGINS TO LOWER DUE
TO SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE PLUME INFLUENCE FROM
HURRICANE POLO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH WOULD FAVOR A WETTER SCENARIO AS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE SHOWCASING, WHEREAS A FASTER PROGRESSION
LIKE WHAT THE GFS AND GFS ENS SHOW WOULD RESULT IN A QUICKER
RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO PEAK SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH TRAVERSES
EASTWARD AND A DRIER PATTERN TAKES HOLD BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
DETAILS WILL BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR
BRIEFLY SHUFFLES IN ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 76 48 80 / 20 40 10 0
DULCE........................... 49 67 45 73 / 70 70 20 0
CUBA............................ 50 66 50 71 / 60 70 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 75 41 78 / 60 30 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 68 47 72 / 60 40 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 73 42 79 / 60 60 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 71 49 73 / 60 30 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 52 70 51 74 / 50 50 20 0
DATIL........................... 50 69 48 72 / 40 30 10 0
RESERVE......................... 53 74 52 78 / 60 30 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 57 78 58 82 / 60 20 5 0
CHAMA........................... 46 61 42 67 / 80 80 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 66 51 73 / 60 60 30 5
PECOS........................... 51 67 49 72 / 70 50 30 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 64 43 69 / 60 60 50 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 57 39 62 / 70 50 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 64 35 69 / 70 60 40 0
TAOS............................ 46 71 42 76 / 60 60 40 0
MORA............................ 49 67 46 72 / 50 50 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 72 51 76 / 50 50 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 71 48 76 / 60 60 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 73 49 78 / 50 60 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 74 54 80 / 50 50 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 76 56 81 / 50 40 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 77 57 82 / 50 40 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 76 56 82 / 50 50 30 0
BELEN........................... 58 75 58 78 / 70 50 40 0
BERNALILLO...................... 57 75 56 80 / 50 50 40 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 75 58 79 / 50 40 40 0
CORRALES........................ 58 75 56 81 / 50 50 40 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 74 58 78 / 70 40 40 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 74 53 79 / 50 50 40 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 73 56 77 / 50 50 40 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 77 57 81 / 80 50 30 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 66 51 70 / 50 50 40 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 68 53 72 / 50 50 40 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 71 50 74 / 50 50 40 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 76 47 79 / 40 50 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 71 49 76 / 50 50 40 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 69 53 73 / 70 50 40 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 69 55 73 / 90 50 30 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 71 58 76 / 90 50 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 68 53 72 / 90 60 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 67 49 74 / 80 50 20 0
RATON........................... 49 74 47 81 / 90 40 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 73 50 79 / 70 60 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 72 46 77 / 70 60 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 59 72 57 81 / 60 70 10 0
ROY............................. 56 70 53 78 / 70 60 30 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 77 60 84 / 70 80 40 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 75 59 82 / 80 60 40 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 79 59 87 / 80 80 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 76 59 84 / 80 80 40 0
PORTALES........................ 62 76 61 84 / 80 80 40 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 77 61 84 / 90 60 40 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 81 61 88 / 80 50 30 0
PICACHO......................... 59 75 57 81 / 90 80 20 5
ELK............................. 57 73 55 78 / 100 50 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ226-234>240.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...34
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