700
FXUS65 KABQ 170525 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD WARMTH FOR MARCH. MINOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE PERSISTENT RECORD HEAT
GRIPS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
TEMPS HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM UP TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE
OF A POTENT COLD FRONT AND PERSISTENT CIRRUS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS LEADING TO
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM.
MEANWHILE, A NARROW 130KT JET MAX ALOFT IS DIVING SOUTH FROM WESTERN
CO INTO WESTERN NM. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TUESDAY FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO THE ABQ METRO. A FEW GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 50 MPH IN THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY BUT MOST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH. TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL
REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A +3 TO +4 STANDARD DEVIATION
H5 HIGH DRIFTING EAST FROM SOCAL INTO AZ. PRESSURE HEIGHTS PEAKING
NEAR 596DM ON THE ECMWF WOULD TOPPLE MARCH RECORD H5 HEIGHTS IN THE
VICINITY FROM FLAGSTAFF TO TUSCON, ALBUQUERQUE, AND EL PASO. THIS
SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXCEPTIONALLY DRY SO DIURNAL
SWINGS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A HISTORIC
HEATWAVE WILL GRIP OUR REGION WITH MAX TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE
MAY AND EARLY JUNE. THE MOST RECENT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TRENDED
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER AT ABQ, WHICH LOWERS THE RISK OF BREAKING
THE ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD HIGH IN MARCH (89F). THE TREND HAS ALSO
DECREASED THE CHANCES OF HITTING OUR FIRST 90 DEGREE, SIX WEEKS
BEFORE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD (MAY 3RD). THE CURRENT MAX TEMP
FORECAST WILL HOWEVER BREAK THE ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD (85F: MARCH
19, 1907 AND MARCH 26, 1971).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT KFMN SHOULD TAPER OFF JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY. LESS HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AIRSPACE TUESDAY WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN KFMN TO KGNT
TO KCQC. PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THIS ZONE.
NORTHWEST WINDS TAPER OFF SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN A LITTLE
BRISK AT KFMN AND KAEG. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, INCLUDING KROW, WITH WEST WINDS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THRU TUESDAY BETWEEN AN
EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
AREA FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO CUBA, GRANTS, AND THE ABQ METRO TODAY
AND TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 13 TO 18% RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN
THIS AREA. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A HISTORIC LATE MARCH HEATWAVE
WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY. SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITY IS LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD WITH LIGHTER WINDS FROM WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 73 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 69 29 76 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 28 68 35 76 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 24 73 29 81 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 71 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 73 34 80 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 71 36 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 36 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 29 77 37 84 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 82 40 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 26 64 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 30 70 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 66 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 56 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 63 25 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 70 29 78 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 28 69 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 28 75 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 72 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 74 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 37 76 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 79 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 38 76 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 30 79 39 84 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 37 77 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 79 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 37 77 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 79 40 84 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 39 73 46 79 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 38 76 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 36 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 68 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 73 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 68 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 31 71 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 71 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 66 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 23 69 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 74 32 80 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 20 75 32 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 73 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 29 74 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 23 72 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 24 78 38 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 23 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 78 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 28 76 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 25 77 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 23 79 39 84 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 78 44 86 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 31 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 30 75 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71
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