298
FXUS65 KABQ 041120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
- THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. HEAT-ILLNESSES
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A SEASONABLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WITH A 594 TO 595 DAM 500 MB
MONSOON HIGH OVERHEAD. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES RETREATING
NORTH, THIS WILL ALLOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH FROM
MEXICO INTO THE STATE. THIS IS INDICATED BY HIGHER PWATS AROUND 0.3
TO 0.5 INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AND AROUND 0.6 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH SOME VIRGA SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER LOW LEVELS, DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RUIDOSO AREA LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.25
INCHES WITH HIGH END RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM VIRGA ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS COULD MOVE INTO THE ABQ METRO AROUND SUNSET DURING
FIREWORK DISPLAYS. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TAPER OFF
AROUND SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, A
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST FROM CURRENT STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS WILL HELP AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM LATER THIS
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 0.6 TO 1
INCH) ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY MORNING. THE BOUNDARY, HIGHER MOISTURE, AND
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HELP RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING
INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORMS COMING OFF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE AS THE MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
DUE TO MLCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30
KTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AREAWIDE WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL PUSH HIGHER MOISTURE WEST INTO THE RGV AND WESTERN NM
AS WELL AS RESULT IN A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND FOR THE ABQ METRO SUNDAY
EVENING SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NM LATE SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING SKIES EARLY
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
TYPICAL EARLY JULY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AFTER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BE PRETTY MUCH BE OVERHEAD MONDAY
SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH HIGHER AVAILABLE
MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 0.7 TO 1 INCH) WILL HELP RESULT IN A BETTER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AND EVERY
DAY, FIRST FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY, MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AT AROUND SUNSET. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AREA BURN SCARS (I.E. RUIDOSO), LOW LYING, AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SEASON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM WILL BE DRIER IN NATURE
DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVELS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, AND POTENTIAL ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE FIRE STARTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE STORMS
WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST TOWARDS THE STATE
BEGINNING THURSDAY MOVING OVER COLORADO BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATION AREAS REMAINING DRY. THE HIGHER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING
OUT IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S, THUS RESULTING IN A HIGHER RISK FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE MAY PRODUCE LOCAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM NEAR THE SACATON FIRE. A
SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NM ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY. AN AREA OF VIRGA WITH DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY MID TO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO THE
RGV NEAR SUNSET. ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY DUE TO ANOTHER DAY OF A LONG PERIOD
OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS. HAZY SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY LOWER
VISIBILITY FOR AREAS NEAR ACTIVE WILDFIRES. SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY
AND ALL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEGINNING MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM WILL BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEING THE BIGGER THREAT. LOWERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH HOTTER
TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST TO OVER COLORADO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 94 58 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 91 45 92 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 57 89 59 / 0 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 92 55 89 56 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 88 58 85 58 / 5 5 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 92 59 90 58 / 5 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 87 60 85 60 / 5 5 20 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 66 87 66 / 10 10 30 0
DATIL........................... 87 63 84 62 / 10 10 30 0
RESERVE......................... 91 57 93 57 / 5 5 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 94 62 97 62 / 5 5 10 0
CHAMA........................... 84 45 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 65 87 63 / 0 0 10 0
PECOS........................... 89 58 87 56 / 0 0 40 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 53 85 55 / 0 0 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 76 40 76 47 / 0 0 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 82 39 80 43 / 0 0 40 5
TAOS............................ 90 51 88 52 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 86 55 83 53 / 0 0 60 5
ESPANOLA........................ 95 60 94 61 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 91 63 88 62 / 0 0 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 60 91 60 / 0 0 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 70 94 68 / 0 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 66 95 65 / 0 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 65 97 65 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 68 96 67 / 0 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 99 65 97 64 / 5 10 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 99 67 96 66 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 63 96 62 / 5 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 98 67 97 66 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 10 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 96 68 92 66 / 0 5 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 67 96 66 / 0 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 72 99 70 / 5 5 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 63 89 61 / 0 5 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 93 61 90 60 / 0 5 30 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 94 57 90 57 / 0 5 40 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 55 91 54 / 0 0 40 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 56 86 55 / 0 0 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 59 90 58 / 5 5 40 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 94 61 88 59 / 5 0 40 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 66 92 65 / 10 5 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 86 60 84 59 / 40 5 60 10
CAPULIN......................... 89 52 83 52 / 10 20 70 10
RATON........................... 94 52 88 52 / 5 5 70 5
SPRINGER........................ 97 55 88 54 / 0 5 60 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 58 86 55 / 0 5 50 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 60 90 59 / 10 40 50 20
ROY............................. 94 58 87 57 / 0 10 60 10
CONCHAS......................... 101 64 95 61 / 0 20 50 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 100 63 91 60 / 5 5 40 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 66 95 62 / 10 30 40 40
CLOVIS.......................... 98 67 94 64 / 30 30 20 40
PORTALES........................ 99 68 96 65 / 30 30 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 67 95 64 / 20 10 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 103 71 98 68 / 20 10 30 10
PICACHO......................... 96 64 92 63 / 30 5 40 5
ELK............................. 91 62 90 60 / 40 10 30 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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