406
FXUS65 KABQ 220608 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1208 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
A BACKDOOR FRONT IS MAKING SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND WILL SURGE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
CENTRAL NM, AIDED BY AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW CURRENTLY OVER
SOCAL. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CREATE A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND
INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THIS EVENING AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CENTER
OVER EAST TX TUESDAY, WHILE THE PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH SLOWS IT'S
APPROACH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW, CAUSING A MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME TO STAND UP OVER THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE THE STORY TUESDAY, WITH PWATS RACING UP TO NEAR CALENDAR
DAY RECORDS BY THE EVENING HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALONG/WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLY LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLOOD THREAT IN RUIDOSO IS LOOKING LOW THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TUESDAY PER THE LATEST CAMS, BUT WILL TREND UP
TUESDAY NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS W/EMBEDDED THUNDER UNFOLDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOAKING RAINFALL IS FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL DECLINE AS LEFT-OVER INSTABILITY
GETS DEPLETED. THAT SAID, EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING IN A HIGH PWAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW RAINFALL TO ADD UP, WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
PWATS ARE MODELED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND CHALLENGE CALENDAR DAY
RECORDS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WETTEST DAYS IN RECENT
MEMORY, IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL. THE 12Z NAM MOS
IS SHOWING A 100 POP FOR KABQ ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS EXTREMELY
RARE FOR OUR AREA. THE DAY WILL START WITH ONGOING PRECIPITATION
AND A RAIN-COOLED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
LIMIT INSTABILITY, BUT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH OVER WESTERN NM AND PROVIDE ADDED FORCING TO KEEP SOME
CONVECTION GOING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
THANKS TO THE RAIN-COOLING AND CLOUD COVER. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, REFOCUSING
HEAVIER RAINFALL FURTHER NORTH. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY OVER A LARGER AREA AND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT 6PM, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED-OVER GOING INTO THURSDAY
AND WILL TAKE AWHILE TO DESTABILIZE AND PRODUCE A CROP OF
CONVECTION ABSENT A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIKE WEDNESDAY. THE
3-DAY STORM TOTAL MEAN QPF IS IMPRESSIVE, FAVORING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2-4". THE BURN SCAR
FLOOD THREAT IN RUIDOSO WILL BE HIGH ON WED/THU, WITH INCREASINGLY
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REQUIRING LESS RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. THE PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM FRIDAY, PRODUCING
A CROP OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA DESPITE A DOWNTREND IN
PWATS. GROUNDS WILL BE SATURATED BY FRIDAY, SO THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH LESS RAIN NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNTREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, INTERACTING WITH LEF-OVER
MOISTURE ACROSS NM AND PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN OCCASIONALLY GUSTY GAP WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BELOW
CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM THE EAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, IMPACTING KSAF, KABQ, AND CARRIZOZO. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO EVENTUALLY IN SANTA FE.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY,
BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH
WET MICROBURSTS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 50
KT. STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 KT. TUESDAY NIGHT, STORMS WILL
SPEED UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MOVING
NORTHWARD UP TO 35 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS A VERY WET LATE MONSOON SEASON PATTERN PERSISTS.
HUMIDITY AND VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINFALL WILL TREND UP
RAPIDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DESPITE SOME DRYING
AND WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND, HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO
EXCELLENT DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND LEFT OVER MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 56 80 55 / 0 0 40 60
DULCE........................... 77 41 75 43 / 0 0 70 80
CUBA............................ 77 50 71 49 / 0 0 60 70
GALLUP.......................... 77 48 74 49 / 0 0 60 70
EL MORRO........................ 75 49 70 47 / 0 0 70 80
GRANTS.......................... 77 52 72 51 / 0 0 60 80
QUEMADO......................... 75 53 73 52 / 0 0 70 80
MAGDALENA....................... 77 56 72 53 / 0 0 70 90
DATIL........................... 75 53 69 51 / 0 5 70 90
RESERVE......................... 83 52 75 54 / 0 0 60 90
GLENWOOD........................ 87 59 80 57 / 0 10 60 90
CHAMA........................... 70 46 67 45 / 0 0 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 54 71 53 / 0 5 60 80
PECOS........................... 78 52 70 51 / 5 10 60 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 49 71 49 / 0 5 30 60
RED RIVER....................... 63 41 62 42 / 0 0 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 35 66 34 / 5 5 60 80
TAOS............................ 76 45 73 47 / 0 0 50 70
MORA............................ 71 49 67 50 / 10 20 60 90
ESPANOLA........................ 82 53 79 54 / 0 0 50 80
SANTA FE........................ 75 55 72 53 / 0 0 70 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 55 75 53 / 0 0 60 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 59 78 57 / 0 5 70 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 58 78 57 / 0 0 70 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 57 80 57 / 0 0 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 58 78 58 / 0 0 70 90
BELEN........................... 86 56 79 57 / 0 0 60 90
BERNALILLO...................... 84 58 79 57 / 0 0 70 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 54 80 55 / 0 0 70 90
CORRALES........................ 84 57 79 58 / 0 0 70 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 85 56 80 57 / 0 0 60 90
PLACITAS........................ 81 57 77 56 / 0 5 70 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 82 58 78 58 / 0 0 70 80
SOCORRO......................... 88 60 80 59 / 0 0 70 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 52 72 52 / 0 10 80 80
TIJERAS......................... 79 55 74 54 / 0 10 70 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 53 74 52 / 0 10 60 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 76 50 / 0 10 60 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 53 71 50 / 0 20 70 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 52 73 52 / 0 5 70 100
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 54 73 53 / 0 0 60 100
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 59 77 57 / 0 5 60 90
RUIDOSO......................... 76 53 69 53 / 0 20 70 90
CAPULIN......................... 71 52 71 51 / 20 20 30 70
RATON........................... 76 52 74 51 / 10 30 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 77 53 76 52 / 10 30 30 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 52 69 52 / 5 20 50 90
CLAYTON......................... 76 56 75 58 / 30 20 20 70
ROY............................. 74 55 72 55 / 10 30 30 90
CONCHAS......................... 82 60 80 61 / 10 30 40 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 59 78 60 / 10 40 40 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 60 81 61 / 10 30 30 80
CLOVIS.......................... 81 60 80 59 / 30 30 40 70
PORTALES........................ 91 61 81 60 / 20 20 40 70
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 61 82 61 / 5 20 40 90
ROSWELL......................... 93 65 86 63 / 0 20 40 80
PICACHO......................... 87 59 78 59 / 0 20 60 90
ELK............................. 82 57 75 56 / 0 20 70 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ204-206>208-211-212-214-215-217>226-228-229-231>233-
237>241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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