362  
FXUS65 KABQ 222331 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
531 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR KCAO TO KSRR  
AND WESTWARD TOWARD KONM WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH APPROXIMATELY  
02Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SHOWER OR  
T-STORM. LOW CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT FROM NEAR KCVN SOUTHWARD, BUT  
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF KROW. MOISTURE CURRENTLY  
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL  
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM ALONG A  
SHARPER MOISTURE GRADIENT.  
 
34  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2021
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS  
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
SPOTTY AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. A COLD FRONT  
SURGING THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL  
ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH GREATER CHANCES  
IN WETTING PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY  
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO  
PUSH WESTWARD.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...  
A 593DAM 500MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL PER THE 12Z  
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND A  
PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. THIS MOISTURE WILL  
ADVECT NORTHEAST WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, RESULTING IN A RISE IN PWATS AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO  
OVER FAR WEST TX. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE  
COVERAGE, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING STORMS INSTEAD OF THE  
DRIER STORMS CURRENTLY SHOWING ON RADAR. WESTERN NM WILL BE 3-7  
DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, DECREASED  
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN-COOLING. THE EASTERN PLAINS  
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS THERE AND A  
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LATE DAY WINDS. IN FACT, MOST OF EASTERN NM  
WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION  
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...  
THE H5 HIGH WEAKENS AND ELONGATES THURSDAY OVER TX WHILE AN UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW STAYS OFF THE COAST OF CA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN  
DOMINANT OVER NM BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, AND A SUBTROPICAL PLUME  
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.  
PWATS WILL INCREASE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.75" TO 1". THIS MOISTURE  
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
CONVECTION. WHILE DEWPOINTS DO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO  
WEDNESDAY, LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT MORE HIGH-BASED  
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS - PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST.  
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV  
HAS BETTER CHANCES WHERE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.  
 
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHICH PUSHES THE MOISTURE  
GRADIENT FARTHER EAST. THIS RESULTS IN DECREASED PWATS AND DEWPOINTS  
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE EAST. THUS,  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO SHIFT FARTHER EAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SET UP. THIS  
FRONT SURGES THROUGH EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE  
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR  
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL SPREAD WESTWARD SUNDAY  
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THE MOISTURE  
CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO  
AZ.  
 
11/15  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW  
MEXICO WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL  
AREAS, WHERE A ROUND OF MIXED WET/DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
UNDERWAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND  
INCREASING WETTING POTENTIAL. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY  
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY  
IMPROVED MOISTURE FOR ROUNDS OF WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONCE  
THIS MOISTURE COMES IN, IT WILL STAY AROUND FOR AWHILE GIVEN NO  
SCOURING MECHANISM WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF  
NEW MEXICO OVER THE PACIFIC NW OR GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS  
OF WETTING STORMS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
11  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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