086
FXUS65 KABQ 051109 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
- A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS FORECAST ON THE RUIDOSO BURN
SCARS THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, WHERE MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THREE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE AT WORK FOR NM
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INLAND
INTO OR WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH SUBTLE PRESSURE RISES INTO NM.
WHILE HURRICANE MARIE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER OPEN WATERS
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SHE WILL SHED SOME HIGH LEVEL MODIFIED
MOISTURE THAT WILL SPLIT THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES AND WORK
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES BY SUNDAY.
AS FOR TODAY, THE BEST THETA-E AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NM WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED MAXIMUM
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS WILL
CONSEQUENTLY BE MOST PRONE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SECONDARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE GILA NORTHWARD TO THE JEMEZ AND TUSAS. A FEW AIRMASS STORMS
WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, BUT WILL ALSO BE
EXTREMELY SPARSE AND ISOLATED. WITH THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISING
SLIGHTLY, THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL TURN MORE ERRATIC AND SLOWER,
STEERING STORMS MUCH MORE SLUGGISHLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
CONSEQUENTLY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A THREAT. MANY HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS PINPOINT THE RUIDOSO
BURN SCARS GETTING HEFTY RAINFALL, SO THE FLOOD WATCH IS WELL
WARRANTED THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE READINGS IN THE EAST
REACH 8 TO 12 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES WITH LOTS OF 90'S BEING
COMMON. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND JUST A FEW EVENING OUTFLOWS BEING
THE MAIN MECHANISMS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
ON SUNDAY, PWATS WILL RISE MUCH MORE INTO AZ AND UT, ORIGINATING
IN A MODIFIED FASHION FROM MARIE. THIS WILL SPREAD A BROADER
THETA-E BAND OVER NM, IMPLYING MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS STILL LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE IMMEDIATE
FOUR CORNERS AREA SUNDAY, BUT WILL CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND JUST WEST OF THERE. STORM MOTIONS WOULD
REMAIN SLUGGISH NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT
ANY CELLS IN WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NM WOULD TEND TO DRIFT
A BIT QUICKER AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST. THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WOULD BE MORE ALIGNED WITH SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS, BUT WITH PWATS OF 1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
BE CAPABLE WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
INTO MONDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED OR LOW WILL BE EJECTING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
THIS WILL DRAG SOME DRIER AIR CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS, BUT
OVERALL MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL STAY
INTACT, KEEPING STORMS FIRING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE GILA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THE MONSOON PLUME OF
MOISTURE WILL NOT ALTER ALL THAT MUCH INTO TUESDAY WITH JUST A
MINOR WEST-EAST ELONGATION AND A STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE DEEP SOUTHERN STATES. HOWEVER, IF THE HIGH CONTINUES TO
ELONGATE LIKE THIS INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE
PLUME SOME, PUSHING IT FARTHER WEST INTO AZ. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT A FAINT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WOULD SAG INTO EASTERN CO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS NOT A CLEAR CUT CONSENSUS THAT THIS WOULD
SEEP INTO NORTHEASTERN NM.
THE HIGH WOULD THEN START TO CENTER CLOSER TO AZ AND NM INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN A SLIGHTLY MORE WEAKENED STATE (500 MB
HEIGHTS OF 590-594 DECAMETERS). WITH PWATS STILL STAYING IN A 0.8
TO 1.1 INCH RANGE FOR MOST ZONES, SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS
WOULD STILL ENSUE. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO KEEP A SIMILAR
TREND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BEING MOST COMMON IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH READINGS (BY 6 TO 12 DEGREES) STAYING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOR TODAY, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN ANY
OF THE TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAFS) ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, HOWEVER THERE WILL BE BATCHES OF SCATTERED
CELLS THAT DEVELOP AT A DISTANCE. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE JEMEZ AND
TUSAS WILL ALSO OBSERVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. STORMS WILL
BE SLOW-MOVING, LEADING TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TEMPORARILY. SMALL HAIL, LOTS OF
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
JUST BEFORE NOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH THE
COVERAGE AND NUMBER THEN QUICKLY DWINDLING AND DECREASING THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE EVENING SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY AREAS TODAY BEFORE BROADENING A
BIT AND NUDGING WESTWARD ON SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
AREA WHERE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED WITH GENERALLY JUST ISOLATED
CELLS ON EITHER SIDE. THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
STAY ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NM
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE A BIT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME BECOMES MORE SUBDUED,
BUT SCATTERED STORMS WILL STILL BE COMMON OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN OF NM THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORM
MOTIONS WILL TEND TO TURN SLOWER IN THE COMING DAYS, INCREASING
THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL UNDERNEATH ANY STRONG STORMS, BUT
WETTING RAINFALL WILL STILL BE SPOTTY OR HIT-AND-MISS. NO
WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION WIND CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, JUST BRIEF
AND LOCALIZED OUTFLOWS THAT WILL CREATE STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 85 59 88 64 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 86 46 88 52 / 0 0 10 30
CUBA............................ 82 56 85 58 / 5 5 5 30
GALLUP.......................... 83 54 86 56 / 0 5 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 83 54 / 5 10 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 83 56 86 58 / 10 10 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 80 56 83 57 / 10 10 70 30
MAGDALENA....................... 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 20 30
DATIL........................... 77 57 79 57 / 20 10 50 30
RESERVE......................... 86 55 88 59 / 20 10 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 94 61 95 62 / 5 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 80 50 82 52 / 10 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 61 83 60 / 40 10 10 30
PECOS........................... 84 58 84 57 / 30 20 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 56 82 56 / 30 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 77 45 76 45 / 40 20 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 40 79 41 / 50 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 84 54 85 55 / 20 10 10 20
MORA............................ 82 54 81 53 / 50 20 60 30
ESPANOLA........................ 88 61 90 63 / 30 10 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 84 62 84 62 / 20 10 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 60 87 61 / 20 10 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 68 89 66 / 20 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 66 90 67 / 20 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 92 65 92 66 / 10 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 68 91 68 / 10 10 10 40
BELEN........................... 91 64 92 65 / 10 10 5 30
BERNALILLO...................... 92 66 92 67 / 20 20 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 63 91 64 / 10 10 10 30
CORRALES........................ 92 66 92 67 / 20 10 10 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 64 92 65 / 10 10 5 30
PLACITAS........................ 88 66 87 64 / 20 20 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 67 90 67 / 10 10 10 40
SOCORRO......................... 91 68 94 68 / 10 10 10 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 61 82 59 / 20 20 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 86 62 86 62 / 20 20 40 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 58 86 58 / 20 20 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 56 88 56 / 20 20 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 59 85 58 / 20 30 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 58 85 58 / 20 20 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 59 85 58 / 30 20 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 64 88 62 / 40 20 60 10
RUIDOSO......................... 81 57 80 55 / 80 20 60 5
CAPULIN......................... 86 57 84 58 / 30 30 30 5
RATON........................... 88 55 88 56 / 40 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 90 56 89 57 / 30 20 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 57 84 56 / 30 30 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 94 66 92 66 / 20 40 20 10
ROY............................. 89 61 87 61 / 20 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 98 67 96 67 / 20 30 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 66 90 65 / 20 40 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 69 96 69 / 20 30 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 98 68 95 67 / 20 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 99 68 95 67 / 20 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 68 95 68 / 10 20 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 99 70 98 69 / 10 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 91 62 90 61 / 50 20 10 0
ELK............................. 88 59 87 56 / 60 20 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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