907
FXUS65 KABQ 010744
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
- ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
WITH A RISK OF HYDROPLANING IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MAINLY AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE ARIZONA AND COLORADO BORDERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW COVERED AND ICY ROADS ARE ALSO FORECAST
ON NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PASSES OVER 9000 FEET.
- STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND MAINLY
DRY THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF NEW
FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
WIDESPREAD RADAR ECHOES HAVE FINALLY PRODUCED LIGHT RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RAPID TOP-DOWN MOISTENING LATE TUESDAY EVENING. PWATS
HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.0" ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED PWATS BETWEEN 150 AND 250% OF NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL. DERIVED MOTION WINDS ALSO SHOW A 120KT JET MAX CRASHING
INTO SOCAL AND ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE EASTWARD INTO AZ AND NM. THE
FIRST WAVE OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE.
A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM BY
LATE THIS MORNING THEN SURGE EAST ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. MODEL PROBS FOR QPF >0.25" ARE NOW ABOVE 80%
IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASSISTS
THE MOIST SPEED MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. A FEW LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
STILL ONLY HAVE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR >0.10", INCLUDING FROM THE ABQ
METRO SOUTHWARD AND AREAS SHADOWED BY NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TERRAIN.
WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS MTS
MAY SEE MORE THAN 1" OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 4-8" OF SNOW ABOVE
9,000 FT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM AS THE
JET MAX MOVES OVERHEAD AND A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NM. REFS WIND GUST PROBS >45 MPH ARE STILL IN THE
40-60% RANGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE
NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT HIGHER HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING ARE A CONCERN. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED IN SEVERAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND A
HIGH WIND WARNING WAS POSTED FOR FAR SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND
ALLOW PRECIP TO END QUICKLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. A FEW SHOWERS MAY HOWEVER LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT PERSISTING
OVER NORTHERN NM TONIGHT MAY ALLOW DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. A WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED IN THAT AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR MT WAVE CRASHING TO
OCCUR THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY.
VERY DRY, WARM, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THURSDAY OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WINDS DO
APPEAR WEAKER THAN TODAY HOWEVER HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER AND
THE RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE HIGHER AGAIN. THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL WAVE IS SHOWN APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN ALL NIGHT WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS COMPARED TO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
A 545DM H5 LOW PROGGED TO SWING QUICKLY EAST THRU WY FRIDAY WILL
DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU NM WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
THE RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM.
TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 TO
15F COOLER THAN THURSDAY. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN NM WILL ALLOW
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VERY COLD LOW TEMPS FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM WITH EVEN A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE ABQ METRO
AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE WEATHER LOOKS TRANQUIL AT THIS POINT SATURDAY
THRU MONDAY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MOIST STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE AIRSPACE THE NEXT 24 HRS WILL
CREATE VARIOUS IMPACTS TO AVIATION, INCLUDING; ICING, TURBULENCE,
LLWS, RAIN, ISOLATED STORMS, AREAS OF MVFR, AND MT OBSCURATIONS.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH THE
FIRST WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW DEVELOPING
NOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR MVFR AND LCL IFR THRU SUNRISE WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST NM. A
LULL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A SECOND WAVE OF
RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MT OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FROM MORE PERSISTENT RAIN ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG
AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF 35-45KT EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS >35KT AT KABQ
BETWEEN 1PM AND 5PM. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASING WINDS MOST AREAS. THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WILL REMAIN WINDY AS MT WAVE
ACTION AMPLIFIES AND CREATES DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45KT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TODAY WILL
BRIEFLY ALLEVIATE THE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OF THE
PAST 6 WEEKS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG OVER EASTERN NM TODAY
BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY ABOVE 20% WILL HELP
TO MITIGATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. ERC PERCENTILES AND RFTI VALUES
ALSO DON'T LINE UP TODAY FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE HAVE
BEEN FIRES ON DAYS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CLOUD COVER SO FOLKS ARE
STILL ENCOURAGED TO PRACTICE FIRE SAFETY. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY OVER EASTERN NM BUT WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, 90TH PERCENTILE ERCS, AND RFTI VALUES IN THE 5
TO 7 RANGE. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL VERY LIKELY BE UPGRADED
TO A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM FRIDAY WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
PARTS OF EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD LIGHTER
WINDS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
VERY DRY AND WARM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 34 70 37 / 80 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 26 64 29 / 90 50 10 5
CUBA............................ 55 31 67 33 / 70 10 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 57 29 68 28 / 90 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 31 66 34 / 90 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 31 70 32 / 60 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 31 70 34 / 60 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 37 73 40 / 30 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 32 68 37 / 40 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 29 72 31 / 70 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 35 76 36 / 70 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 46 25 56 28 / 90 70 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 37 65 41 / 80 20 5 0
PECOS........................... 55 33 66 37 / 80 20 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 31 60 35 / 90 40 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 23 52 25 / 90 60 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 26 57 26 / 90 60 5 5
TAOS............................ 53 29 65 33 / 90 40 0 0
MORA............................ 51 33 66 36 / 70 20 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 61 35 74 38 / 70 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 35 68 40 / 80 20 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 34 71 39 / 70 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 40 75 47 / 60 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 42 77 44 / 50 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 40 78 43 / 50 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 41 77 45 / 50 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 70 38 80 41 / 40 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 41 77 45 / 60 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 37 79 40 / 50 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 42 78 44 / 50 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 39 79 41 / 40 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 40 73 47 / 70 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 41 78 45 / 50 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 41 81 44 / 30 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 38 69 43 / 70 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 38 71 43 / 70 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 36 71 41 / 70 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 34 73 36 / 70 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 35 68 39 / 70 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 36 71 41 / 70 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 37 71 41 / 60 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 40 73 45 / 40 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 62 40 67 45 / 60 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 60 32 68 35 / 40 0 0 0
RATON........................... 63 32 73 34 / 40 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 66 35 73 37 / 40 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 36 69 38 / 60 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 41 77 45 / 30 5 0 0
ROY............................. 65 37 74 40 / 40 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 43 81 47 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 72 44 77 45 / 40 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 46 83 48 / 30 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 46 82 47 / 30 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 80 46 82 47 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 44 82 45 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 81 46 85 48 / 20 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 75 42 80 46 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 38 78 45 / 40 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ226>232-238-239.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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