513
FXUS65 KABQ 141950
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
150 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
- LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND GUST TO 55 MPH OR GREATER FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY.
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
A DRY INTRUSION PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY WILL
CONTINUE KICKING OFF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN
NM THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH DCAPE WITH LARGE INVERTED-V
PROFILES AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURST GUSTS >60
MPH OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU AROUND 6PM. THE 12Z HREF ENSEMBLE
MAX GUSTS SHOW SEVERAL OUTFLOWS >60 MPH CLOSER TO THE TX/NM
BORDER. SPC SHOWS A 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA FOR THIS SAME AREA.
MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND WARM
WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THRU SUNSET.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLATED TO ENTER EASTERN NM FRIDAY HAS
TRENDED WEAKER WITH A LESS ROBUST WESTWARD PUSH. CAMS ARE STILL
SUGGESTING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER EASTERN COLFAX AND UNION
COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL SETUP IS SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS FOR NORTHEAST NM. THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE HOT TEMPS, SUNNY SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY,
AND BREEZY WEST WINDS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN MOST AREAS OUTSIDE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND MORE NOTICEABLE MIN
TEMP INVERSIONS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES SLOWLY EAST THRU THE GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE
TROUGH WILL TRACK AND HOW DEEP OR CLOSED THE LOW BECOMES THRU THIS
PERIOD. THE LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE DEEPENING AN H5 LOW BETWEEN 547DM
AND 555DM OVER NV BY SUNDAY. STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS LOW SATURDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO
BETWEEN 988MB AND 994MB OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL FAVOR INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS. WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BY SATURDAY BUT
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE STRONG. PATTERN RECOGNITION
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER THAN SHOWN FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45KT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DECREASES BELOW
990MB OVER NORTHEAST NM. THE LATEST NBM 75TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS
ARE ALREADY 40 TO 55 MPH SUNDAY OVER A LARGE AREA OF NM. THIS WIND
MAX SHIFTS EAST INTO EASTERN NM MONDAY WHILE H5 HEIGHTS FALL OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS. FOLKS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO PRACTICE FIRE SAFETY BUT ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEGINNING TUESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND KEY SURFACE FEATURES. A MOIST
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL SHOWN ENTERING EASTERN NM TUESDAY
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY BUT THE DEPTH OF THIS MOISTURE AND THE EXTENT
OF INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH-BASED SHRA/TS DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA
SOUTH TO FT SUMNER AND ROSWELL WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 25KT INTO
WEST TX THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS >50KT AND LCL BLDU. A FEW
GUSTY SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING FROM NEAR SOCORRO TO
CORONA OTHERWISE CLEARING WILL OCCUR ALL AREAS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS OVER EASTERN NM TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST AROUND 25 MPH INTO WEST TX THIS EVENING. DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS >55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST NM
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS LATER TONIGHT WITH POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ZONE
123 TODAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY HAS TRENDED
WEAKER WITH HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY STORMS FOCUSED MAINLY OVER COLFAX
AND UNION COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. POOR RECOVERIES
WILL OCCUR AGAIN IN MOST AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING RIDGE
TOP WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR A MULTI-DAY FIRE GROWING PATTERN TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
NORTH OF NM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
THEN PEAK SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 6 TO
12+ HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY, POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES,
MIXING HEIGHTS >15,000FT, ERC VALUES ABOVE THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES, AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. RFTIS WILL
AVERAGE 3 TO 6 SATURDAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH
FOLLOWED BY RFTIS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 SUNDAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 50 MPH. THE DRY AND WINDY PATTERN WILL LINGER OVER AT LEAST
EASTERN NM MONDAY. COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM BY MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 81 37 83 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 42 81 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 77 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 47 82 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 80 51 82 / 5 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 48 77 46 79 / 0 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 43 84 40 84 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 87 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 76 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 79 54 79 / 0 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 47 80 47 82 / 0 5 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 77 45 78 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 73 38 74 / 0 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 73 38 75 / 0 10 5 0
TAOS............................ 39 81 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 79 47 81 / 0 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 48 86 48 87 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 80 51 81 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 83 48 84 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 86 57 87 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 87 54 89 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 90 53 92 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 88 55 90 / 0 5 5 0
BELEN........................... 54 89 51 91 / 5 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 89 54 90 / 0 5 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 89 50 91 / 0 5 5 0
CORRALES........................ 54 90 54 91 / 0 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 89 52 91 / 0 5 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 84 56 86 / 0 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 88 54 90 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 90 56 93 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 80 53 82 / 0 5 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 83 50 85 / 0 5 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 84 49 86 / 0 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 84 45 86 / 0 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 79 49 82 / 0 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 82 49 84 / 5 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 80 50 82 / 10 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 84 56 85 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 58 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 46 78 44 82 / 0 20 10 5
RATON........................... 45 83 43 86 / 0 20 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 46 85 45 88 / 0 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 82 48 84 / 0 10 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 87 53 91 / 0 20 10 5
ROY............................. 51 84 49 88 / 0 20 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 93 52 97 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 88 53 91 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 95 55 99 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 95 57 99 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 95 57 99 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 93 54 97 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 95 58 98 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 60 88 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 58 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123-125-126.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ123.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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