581
FXUS65 KABQ 232331 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
IT'S A RAINY DAY AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE STATE
REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A
HIGH OVER TEXAS. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM
THE SOUTH, PUSHING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE UP TO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
LEVELS FOR THE LATE SEPTEMBER. PRECIPITATION THUS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN
FOCUSED ALONG A WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW. PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAINFALL HAS BEEN THE STORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH RAINFALL RATES REMAINING BELOW 0.2"/HOUR.
THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR THESE AREAS EARLY.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL STILL PERSISTS FURTHER EAST WHERE
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS STRONGER AND MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION HAS BEGUN
TO OCCUR. SPC MESOANALYSIS ANALYZES 500-100J/KG OF MU CAPE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE 1-4" SWATH OF RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM
ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO SANTA ROSA WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE
MOST PERSISTENT. GIVEN THAT THIS FOLLOWS THE PECOS RIVER, IT DOES
NUDGE THE RISK OF SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE PECOS HIGHER. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CO. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME VERY WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THIS WAVE, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WELL, WITH A MINIMAL THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO GET DISRUPTED THURSDAY
AS THE BAJA LOW RAPIDLY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO ARIZONA AND EVENTUALLY
NEW MEXICO BY LATE THURSDAY. WHILE THE MOISTURE FETCH WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS TODAY, PWATS WILL STILL RANGE FROM 100-200% OF NORMAL
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS IN WESTERN NM WITH THE
EJECTING LOW AND ALSO IN EASTERN NM WHERE PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING RUIDOSO AND ROSWELL, WAS
EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS AS WELL. HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE IS NOT
SHOWING AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER VERY SATURATED SOILS WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD THREAT ELEVATED. LIFT PROVIDED FROM THE BAJA LOW WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP RAIN SHOWERS GOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY YET AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE OVER ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
DRYING TREND OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND THOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHERMORE, JET DYNAMICS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONIC JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AS IT
MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM/WEST TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY, WITH LOWER
CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW
1.5" AREAWIDE FOR FRIDAY, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR 2-3" IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE SOIL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE VERY HIGH BY FRIDAY. DRY AIR FINALLY TAKES OVER ON
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM CONTINUES TO GET MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SEEING THE RETURN OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES. THE MOISTURE FROM NOW
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO WILL LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP IN THE JET STREAM AND
ADVECTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH ITS
NOT YET CLEAR THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THIS MOISTURE. NONETHELESS,
LREF MEAN PWATS RISE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 10TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
ALMOST NO PRECIPITATION OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD,
SUGGESTING THAT THE RETURN OF DEEP, SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOT A
GUARANTEE JUST YET. TRENDS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THIS WILL
DETERMINE WHERE MOISTURE GETS PUSHED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHILE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. PATCHY MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR
CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, THOUGH DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT WHERE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN NEARLY ALL AREAS ARE SATURATED
ATTM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY NEARLY AREAWIDE, BUT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VSBYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM LESS THAN 0.1" ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NM TO OVER 3" IN POCKETS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM. A
SWATH OF PERSISTENT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HEAVIER STORMS ACROSS THE EAST AND
ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN IN THE WEST. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CENTRAL AND PARTICULARLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH FLOODING CONCERNS THE MAIN HAZARD. PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS,
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS REMAIN UNLIKELY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE SAME AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER EACH DAY. DRIER
WEATHER IS LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 73 53 74 / 30 50 20 20
DULCE........................... 49 65 46 71 / 80 70 60 60
CUBA............................ 50 65 48 67 / 70 50 40 50
GALLUP.......................... 46 71 48 71 / 10 30 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 47 68 46 68 / 20 30 50 50
GRANTS.......................... 48 69 48 70 / 40 40 50 70
QUEMADO......................... 48 69 49 70 / 20 30 40 20
MAGDALENA....................... 52 68 51 68 / 50 30 70 60
DATIL........................... 48 67 49 67 / 30 40 70 40
RESERVE......................... 50 75 51 76 / 30 30 70 30
GLENWOOD........................ 56 79 56 80 / 40 30 80 20
CHAMA........................... 46 60 45 63 / 90 80 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 64 51 66 / 90 60 50 60
PECOS........................... 51 65 49 68 / 90 60 60 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 63 47 66 / 100 70 50 60
RED RIVER....................... 42 54 41 58 / 100 80 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 59 40 63 / 100 80 50 60
TAOS............................ 49 66 48 69 / 100 70 50 60
MORA............................ 50 63 48 69 / 100 70 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 54 70 51 73 / 90 60 50 60
SANTA FE........................ 52 64 52 67 / 90 60 60 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 67 52 69 / 90 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 69 56 73 / 70 30 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 71 57 72 / 70 30 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 73 57 74 / 60 20 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 71 56 72 / 70 20 60 50
BELEN........................... 57 73 56 73 / 60 20 70 50
BERNALILLO...................... 57 72 56 74 / 70 30 60 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 73 55 73 / 60 20 70 50
CORRALES........................ 57 72 56 74 / 70 30 60 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 73 55 74 / 60 20 70 50
PLACITAS........................ 55 69 55 71 / 80 40 60 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 71 56 73 / 70 30 60 50
SOCORRO......................... 56 75 57 76 / 60 20 80 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 65 51 67 / 80 40 60 50
TIJERAS......................... 53 66 53 68 / 80 30 60 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 68 52 71 / 80 40 60 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 70 49 72 / 80 40 60 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 66 51 68 / 90 40 70 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 68 52 70 / 70 30 80 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 68 52 68 / 70 40 80 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 70 56 72 / 80 60 90 70
RUIDOSO......................... 52 66 52 69 / 80 70 90 70
CAPULIN......................... 52 63 50 69 / 100 70 60 40
RATON........................... 53 67 50 73 / 90 70 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 54 70 51 75 / 90 50 50 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 66 50 70 / 100 60 70 50
CLAYTON......................... 58 71 57 74 / 100 70 60 50
ROY............................. 55 67 55 71 / 90 60 70 50
CONCHAS......................... 61 75 60 78 / 100 60 80 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 73 59 75 / 90 50 90 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 76 60 76 / 90 60 80 80
CLOVIS.......................... 61 74 61 76 / 80 70 90 90
PORTALES........................ 63 76 61 77 / 80 70 80 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 74 61 76 / 90 60 90 80
ROSWELL......................... 64 76 63 79 / 80 60 90 70
PICACHO......................... 58 72 57 76 / 80 70 90 80
ELK............................. 55 70 55 77 / 70 70 90 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ212>215-218-221>225-
227>236.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ226-237>240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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