891
FXUS65 KABQ 211820
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1220 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- UNPRECEDENTED HEAT FOR MARCH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TODAY,
LESSENING SUNDAY, AND PRODUCING A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS
FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT. ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
INCLUDING TIJERAS CANYON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE CROSSWINDS UP
TO 45 MPH ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE H5 HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ HAS SINCE WEAKENED TO
~590DM AS OF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER,
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE REGION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN
CLIMB TO UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS FOR MID-TO-LATE MARCH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. ABQ WILL SEE ANOTHER FLIRTATION WITH 90F AT THE SUNPORT
WITH SOME 90S LIKELY BE REACHED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM, WITH LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR SOCORRO. A FEW SPOTS FROM CLOVIS
TO ROSWELL COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A
MINOR HEAT RISK REMAINS FOR THOSE INDIVIDUALS MOST SENSITIVE TO
HEAT. HYDRATION WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO STAY ON TOP OF FOR THOSE
OUTDOORS TODAY, FOR MORE REASON THAN JUST THE RECORD HEAT. HUMIDITY
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS BELOW 10% ACROSS THE STATE FOR
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS WILL QUICKLY DEHYDRATE ANYONE.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY CUTTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY
WILL SEND DOWN A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS GREAT PLAINS
AND WESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND NM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SHORT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTING
A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS OF 30-
40MPH OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE FURTHER FLATTENING AND WEAKENING OF THE H5
HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FINALLY
RETREAT FROM THE RECORD LEVELS WE'VE BEEN SEEING. FORECAST HIGHS
FALL BACK 3F-7F OVER MUCH OF THE STATE AND AS MUCH AS 10F TO 15F
OVER NORTHEASTERN NM BEHIND THE FRONT. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN,
FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY REMAIN 15F TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO BACK SOUTH AND WEST SUNDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DUE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SETUP OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE ~1030MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN, HAVE BACKED OFF
THE GAP WINDS FOR SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE A BIT. NEVERTHELESS, THE
SHARP PRESSURE AND DENSITY GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ABYSMALLY DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
STILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 TO 35+ MPH THRU THE TIJERAS
CANYON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FALL BACK 10F TO 20F ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ~5F ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
STAYING FAIRLY STABLE THRU WESTERN NM. THEREAFTER, THE H5 HIGH
BEGINS TO REFORM OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. HIGHS
CLIMB BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN. RECORD HEAT
REMAINS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE H5 FAVORS TO REMAIN
OVER CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO. BREEZY WESTERLIES WILL BE FAVORED EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORE SO AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
CROSSES NORTHERN NM. IF THE ABQ SUNPORT MISSES 90F TODAY, IT WILL
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FAVOR A TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY SENDING DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN FROM RECORD LEVELS AGAIN TO END NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR PREVAILS AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
WEST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND AT
KSAF IS EXPECTED TO ABATE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS, TURNING LIGHT
AND SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. WINDS AGAIN LESSEN THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
RECORD HEAT AND ABYSMAL DRYNESS HIGHLIGHTED BY HIGHS REACHING THE
80S AND 90S 20F TO 30F ABOVE NORMAL AND 6 TO 12 HOURS OF SUB 10%
HUMIDITY REMAINS THE RULE TODAY. WIND WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. THE HEAT RETURNS
SUNDAY BUT A FEW DEGREES LOWER, 10F TO 15F COOLER BEHIND A COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN NM. A BRIEF 1 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM
WHERE WINDS COINCIDE WITH RISING HUMIDITY STILL BELOW 20%. DESPITE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, FUEL READINESS TO BURN IS AT
RECORD LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, AND A RISE IN RH TO NEAR 30%
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO ABATE THE FIRE THREAT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MORE IMPORTANTLY DO BEGIN TO ABATE THRU THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL DO MORE TO REDUCE THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DURING THIS TIME. MEANWHILE, A STRONG EAST
CANYON WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AT SANTA FE AND
ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK MONDAY FROM ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM, RECORD HEAT AND DRYNESS RETURNS TUESDAY. WIND
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON. THURSDAY CURRENTLY
SEES THE HIGHEST RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
INCREASES THE RISK OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 81 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 34 79 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 78 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 79 33 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 37 82 36 81 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 79 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 82 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 47 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 39 85 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 90 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 72 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 78 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 79 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 65 36 63 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 71 27 68 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 34 80 34 76 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 46 79 35 73 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 42 85 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 79 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 82 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 84 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 87 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 47 90 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 87 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 43 89 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 88 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 89 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 49 89 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 89 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 87 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 92 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 82 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 84 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 80 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 83 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 83 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 87 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 82 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 47 70 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 43 77 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 43 82 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 82 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 76 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 48 83 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 46 92 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 90 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 90 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 93 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 97 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 95 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 97 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 93 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 92 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-126.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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