462
FXUS65 KABQ 171838
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1238 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER REMAINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME SHOWERS
ENTERING WESTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- FAST MOVING STORMS WILL THREATEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WHICH HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MAINLY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER HAS BEFALLEN NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH A 578DM H5
LOW SPINNING UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO AZ WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FURTHER EAST OVER NM. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP QUICKLY AFTER
BOTTOMING OUT THIS MORNING WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE 60S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER STEADILY INCREASES TONIGHT FROM SW TO NE OVER NM AS MID
TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PUSHED OVER THE REGION FROM THE
APPROACHING H5 LOW. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, BUT
NOT AS COLD AS THIS PAST MORNING'S OBSERVATIONS. AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO OPEN, LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NM THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE H5 LOW
OPENS ENTIRELY BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS FURTHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS, AND
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THE REMNANTS OF THE H5 LOW IS MODELED TO BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER.
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO 70S MONDAY, AND 70S TO NEAR 80
FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS TUESDAY. PWS LOOK TO CLIMB TO THE 0.66" TO
0.75" RANGE AS WELL WITH SURFACE TD'S IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EACH OF THESE DAYS MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM.
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FORCING DOESN'T BEGIN TO TRULY
INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEEPENING OF A STOUT UPPER LOW
DIGGING DOWN THE CA COASTLINE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE NOTABLY
OVER WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT. MODEL GUIDANCE
ADVERTISES THE H5 LOW TURNING EASTERLY AND COMING ASHORE SOCAL
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING ALSO FAVORS THE
ROUNDING OF VORTMAX ALONG ITS SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLANK,
PEAKING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER AZ/NM. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THIS REMAINS, WITH HIGHER CERTAINTY THAT THERE WILL BE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AVAILABLE FOR THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN, NORTHERN, AND
CENTRAL NM. PW'S APPROACHING THE 0.90" TO 1.00"+ RANGE, WHICH WOULD
SET DAILY RECORDS AT ABQ, THANKS TO MULTIPLE FACTORS FROM LOW RETURN
FLOW PUSHING IN MOISTURE FROM TX AND THE GULF AS WELL AS A TAP OF
EPAC TROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPORT THE RISK OF ROBUST RAINFALL PRODUCERS
DURING THIS TIME. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR FLOODING RISK WILL BE FAST
STORM SPEEDS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.
THERE REMAINS A LOW MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS AND NAVAJO NATION AREA AS A RESULT.
THEREAFTER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN A
MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS AND A
LAGGING TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR PREVAILS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY STAYING LIGHT AND
TURNING SOUTHERLY MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH STEADILY INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POOR VENTILATION THRU THE REST OF
TODAY WITH STEADILY INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY ALONGSIDE LIGHT
SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY THRU TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS TRYING TO ENTER
WESTERN NM, PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH DAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE STORMS WILL BE
FAST MOVING, BUT REPEATED ROUNDS COULD STILL THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A LOW FLOODING RISK. DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED TO RETURN
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 62 44 66 / 0 0 20 20
DULCE........................... 34 64 37 65 / 0 0 20 20
CUBA............................ 40 62 42 65 / 0 0 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 40 64 41 66 / 0 20 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 36 64 39 64 / 0 20 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 38 67 41 66 / 0 5 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 38 68 42 67 / 5 30 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 40 65 45 66 / 0 5 10 40
DATIL........................... 37 65 42 64 / 0 20 20 40
RESERVE......................... 35 70 41 69 / 0 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 37 73 44 74 / 0 20 30 40
CHAMA........................... 37 60 39 58 / 0 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 63 43 64 / 0 0 5 20
PECOS........................... 36 66 40 68 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 65 41 63 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 33 59 34 56 / 0 0 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 19 63 24 61 / 0 0 10 10
TAOS............................ 35 65 37 66 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 36 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 35 69 40 71 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 42 63 45 66 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 64 43 68 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 69 49 72 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 68 47 72 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 70 43 74 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 44 68 48 72 / 0 0 5 10
BELEN........................... 38 69 43 73 / 0 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 41 70 45 73 / 0 0 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 70 41 74 / 0 0 5 10
CORRALES........................ 42 70 46 74 / 0 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 70 42 73 / 0 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 44 67 47 70 / 0 0 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 68 47 72 / 0 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 44 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 63 42 66 / 0 0 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 40 64 44 68 / 0 0 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 67 41 69 / 0 0 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 69 39 71 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 64 42 67 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 65 49 70 / 0 0 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 37 66 45 67 / 0 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 37 69 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 31 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 30 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 69 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 67 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 32 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 38 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 70 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 37 70 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 35 68 44 75 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 37 70 45 76 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 36 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 37 72 45 75 / 0 0 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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