339
FXUS65 KABQ 050941
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021
SYNOPSIS
WHILE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO GET UNDERWAY
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A 559DAM 500MB LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS IMPACTING
SOUTHEAST CO AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-
3") LIKELY BETWEEN RATON PASS AND CAPULIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
ARE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR UNION, HARDING AND QUAY COUNTIES.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PROGRESSES EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
HOWEVER, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NM SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS TO MOST LOCALES.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TRANSLATING
EASTWARD OVER NM TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE A VERY
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE-DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHWEST BREEZES
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. HEIGHTS REBOUND FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ALL AREAS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL WARMING WILL ACT TO DRAW WIND MOMENTUM
DOWNWARD FROM ALOFT TO RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITONS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO PHASE THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST MONDAY. THIS PHASING RESULTS IN A STREAM OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO NM ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS PLUME.
BY MID-WEEK, MODELS AGREE THAT A RELATIVELY COLD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT, THE
NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE STATE APPEARS FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET.
ALL BETS ARE OFF THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, WITH QUITE THE SMORGASBORD OF
SOLUTIONS/FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE UPTREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST AND TURNS INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL TREND UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH
THERE IS SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BE A FACTOR. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINING STRONGER WINDS AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING NORTHERLY. SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
NORTH OF A KRTN TO KCAO LINE. MOUNTAIN PEAK OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING
FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A FEW MVFR CEILINGS
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 55 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 56 25 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 59 21 62 21 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 24 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 58 21 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 27 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 30 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 55 26 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 23 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 17 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 32 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 24 51 29 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 19 45 26 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 9 48 18 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 53 19 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 56 30 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 29 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 64 29 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 63 30 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 63 30 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 27 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 32 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 23 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 28 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 29 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 24 56 29 / 50 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 19 60 25 / 40 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 18 61 25 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 22 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 29 61 34 / 40 0 0 0
ROY............................. 55 25 58 29 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 27 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 28 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 28 64 34 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 28 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 31 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ227.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ230-231-234.
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