134
FXUS65 KABQ 280754
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
154 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM HAS SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD AND NUDGE UP TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IN
PARTICULAR THAT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. CAMS ALSO DEPICT THAT THESE STORMS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. NBM90TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE OVER
2.5 INCHES ACROSS FAR NE NM AND REFS LPMM AMOUNTS ARE NOT FAR
BEHIND. THUS, THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE
NORTHERN SANGRES, JOHNSON AND BARTLETT MESAS AND UNION COUNTY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ALTERED. CAMS
ARE ALSO VERY MUCH IN AGREEMENT THAT AREAS AROUND GALLUP, ZUNI
PUEBLO AND SURROUNDING AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY, AND PERHAPS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THESE
ALREADY HARD HIT AREAS. WHILE STORMS SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE ALMOST
SQUARELY OVER SANTA FE BY EARLY AFTN. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH STORM TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN HOT TODAY. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AND NO CHANGES TO THE NPW
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS BETWEEN 100-104 ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AROUND FARMINGTON AND SHIPROCK, WHILE TEMPS UP
TO 107 ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. SEVERAL
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY AGAIN, INCLUDING CLOVIS, FORT
SUMNER, MORIARTY, PORTALES, ROSWELL, SANTA FE AND TUCUMCARI.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER NM ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WILL NOT CHANGE IN STRENGTH MUCH FROM TODAY -- STILL AROUND 596DAM
AT H5. MODELS SUGGEST STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH GENERALLY SHOW COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN TODAY.
THE EXCEPTION TO THAT RULE IS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IN CO SHOULD SET OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER BOTH THE NM AND CO SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR THE NM/CO BORDER. THESE STORMS
COULD ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1-1.5". WHILE
NE NM SEEMS TO BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ELSEWHERE AS
PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AT OR JUST ABOVE 1 INCH AND STORM
MOTIONS WILL REMAIN SLOW.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MAY STAY JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND
104 REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NM WHILE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 98 AND 101 ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN ON THURSDAY TO 598 DAM AS IT BEGINS
TO SHIFT WESTWARD, THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN OVER
CENTRAL NM. THOUGH STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
LESS THAN WEDNESDAY, STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AS PWATS REMAIN UNCHANGED. MEANWHILE, THE VORT MAX
PRODUCED BY LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION OVER MEXICO LOOKS TO MERGE WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHIFTING OVER NORTHERN CA LATER TODAY AND MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN CO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION THAT ENSUES OVER CO, NE AND KS
WILL SEND ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NE NM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MEANWHILE ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
WEST- NORTHWEST TO THE AZ/UT BORDER AND STRENGTHENED TO AT LEAST
600DAM AT H5. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNING AROUND FMN. SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP, AT LEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BUT DRIER AIR MAY START TO
MOVE INTO NW NM AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. THE DRIER AIR MAY CONTINUE
TO PUSH MORE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK REDUCING STORM COVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PWATS MAY FINALLY DIP BELOW 1 INCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LATE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MTNS, SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
FOCUSING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS SHOULD ROLL OFF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, IFR OR LOWER VSBYS, AND
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE PAST 06Z WED BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AREAWIDE. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP. WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD TODAY, STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, BUT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND NORTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NM. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
TYPICAL MONSOON HAZARDS INCLUDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FLASH
FLOODING, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED DAILY. NEW FIRES MAY START DUE TO LIGHTNING IN POCKETS OF
DRY FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 69 98 67 / 5 20 10 20
DULCE........................... 97 57 94 55 / 20 40 30 30
CUBA............................ 95 62 91 61 / 20 50 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 92 60 92 60 / 40 40 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 88 59 88 59 / 60 50 50 20
GRANTS.......................... 93 62 92 61 / 30 50 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 89 60 89 60 / 60 40 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 92 67 91 66 / 30 30 40 30
DATIL........................... 88 61 88 61 / 50 40 40 30
RESERVE......................... 95 60 94 61 / 60 20 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 100 63 98 65 / 60 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 89 55 86 54 / 30 50 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 66 89 65 / 50 50 50 60
PECOS........................... 92 60 89 60 / 60 50 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 89 58 86 58 / 50 40 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 80 51 77 50 / 60 50 60 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 49 82 48 / 60 30 60 40
TAOS............................ 92 60 90 59 / 50 30 30 40
MORA............................ 89 58 86 57 / 70 50 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 100 67 95 65 / 40 40 30 40
SANTA FE........................ 93 65 90 64 / 50 40 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 97 64 93 63 / 30 40 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 99 70 96 70 / 30 50 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 100 70 98 70 / 20 50 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 103 70 100 69 / 20 50 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 71 98 71 / 20 40 10 30
BELEN........................... 103 70 100 69 / 20 50 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 102 70 99 69 / 20 40 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 102 68 99 67 / 20 60 10 20
CORRALES........................ 102 70 99 70 / 20 40 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 102 69 99 68 / 20 50 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 97 69 95 68 / 30 40 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 101 70 98 70 / 20 40 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 104 74 101 73 / 20 40 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 64 90 64 / 40 50 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 95 64 92 64 / 40 60 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 97 62 93 61 / 50 60 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 59 94 58 / 50 60 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 92 61 90 61 / 40 50 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 96 62 93 62 / 40 50 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 63 93 63 / 30 40 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 98 69 96 68 / 20 20 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 91 65 88 63 / 20 10 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 89 58 88 59 / 70 70 70 30
RATON........................... 94 58 91 58 / 80 40 50 30
SPRINGER........................ 96 60 94 59 / 70 40 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 92 60 89 59 / 50 50 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 98 66 96 67 / 20 50 30 30
ROY............................. 95 63 92 64 / 40 50 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 103 68 101 68 / 20 40 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 99 67 98 66 / 10 40 0 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 70 102 71 / 5 30 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 104 70 101 69 / 5 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 104 71 101 71 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 105 71 101 70 / 5 10 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 107 74 103 73 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 101 69 97 67 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 99 66 93 64 / 5 5 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ204>209-211>215-218-221-227>230-241.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ201-217-219-220-234>238.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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