339
FXUS65 KABQ 071139 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
439 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND WARMER WEATHER FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LEADING
TO SNOWMELT ACROSS MIDSLOPE AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE THAT STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS CREATE DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES IN
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
THE PACIFIC PORTION OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING TROUGH
HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, WITH A COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE FRONT ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE
FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE EAST, CREATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE COOLER AIR FUNNELING IN
TONIGHT WILL TRANSLATE TO COLDER TEMPS TONIGHT IN MID-SLOPE AND HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS, BUT WILL DISTURB STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS FROM
DEVELOPING AND THAT WILL KEEP TEMPS A TAD WARMER TONIGHT IN THESE
AREAS. NORTHWEST WINDS SLACKEN TOMORROW AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS,
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN NORTHERN NM AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE STORY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER, PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE
DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF NEXT WEEK, AS RIDGING SLOWLY AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA. A STRONG BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NBM PROBS
OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH ARE STILL LOWER THAN 20%
EVERYWHERE SO THESE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
UNIMPACTFUL.
A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL INTRUDE EASTERN NM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, DROPPING TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES, BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE A WARMING ONE AS 700 AND 500
MB HEIGHTS TICK UPWARD. THURSDAY IS ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. THANKS TO A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE, NBM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
40% CHANCE OF TEMPS REACHING 80 DEGREES IN ROSWELL. THIS WOULD BREAK
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79F SET BACK IN 1987. A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
SUCH AS FORT SUMNER, PORTALES, AND CLOVIS MAY APPROACH RECORD
TERRITORY AS WELL.
BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, THERE IS AROUND 10% OF ENSEMBLES THAT ARE
FINALLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND USHERING IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT COULD FINALLY BRING SOME
MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, THE OTHER 90% ARE KEEPING
ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, KEEPING THE DRY AND WARM
PATTERN AROUND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 437 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
LLWS HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT TREND WEAKER. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL AT
MOST TERMINALS TODAY. MVFR CIGS REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN AND AROUND
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, BUT WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY
18Z. HIGH CLOUDS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MST SAT DEC 6 2025
A COLDER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT,
WITH BREEZES WEAKENING IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
RESULTING IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IN MOST AREAS. WINDS INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CREATE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD, BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
LOW GIVEN THAT ERCS ARE BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING MID-WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
ENTRENCHED OVERHEAD. THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, LIKELY EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 23 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 10 46 12 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 21 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 18 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 24 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 51 19 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 23 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 28 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 49 26 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 59 23 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 26 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 13 43 16 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 25 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 45 23 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 18 43 21 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 34 10 41 13 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 8 43 11 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 41 14 44 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 46 19 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 48 20 51 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 26 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 23 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 31 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 26 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 24 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 27 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 54 21 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 26 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 21 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 25 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 23 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 29 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 26 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 27 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 26 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 24 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 21 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 18 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 23 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 24 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 30 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 19 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 46 18 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 17 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 21 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 25 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 49 22 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 23 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 24 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 27 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 27 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 24 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 28 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 26 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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