991
FXUS65 KABQ 232007
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
107 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY
MIX, FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
WITH COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...
A PAIR OF FEATURES ARE ENCROACHING UPON NM, LEADING TO DETERIORATING
WINTRY WEATHER OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A CUT-
OFF PACIFIC LOW HAS TREKKED SOUTHWARD AND IS ABOUT TO TURN MORE TO
THE EAST AND CROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS HAS BEEN PUMPING A FETCH
OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN
STATES WITH ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES STILL SHOWING
PWATS OF 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE BORDERLAND. THIS WILL YIELD EXPANDING PRECIPITATION OVER NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL START OUT QUITE HIGH (8,000 TO 9,000
FT IN SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS) AND WILL BE STUBBORN TO
RECEDE TONIGHT AS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION KEEPS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS BELOW 7,000 FT. A MUCH DIFFERENT
SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM, AS THE ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHES IN, LAYING A SHALLOW LAYER OF FRIGID AIR EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY PLUNGING IN THE EAST, AND AS ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE AND SEEDER CLOUDS ALOFT EXPAND, MORE SNOW, FREEZING RAIN,
AND SLEET WILL TRANSPIRE INTO TONIGHT. THE WARM NOSE ALOFT OVER EAST
CENTRAL NM CAN BE SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AROUND 730 MB WITH
THE NAM AND A COUPLE OF OTHER HIGHER RESOLUTION CAMS SHOWING MORE
INDICATIONS OF EXCEEDING THE 0 DEGREE C ISOTHERM BY 1-3 DEGREES
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST HYDROMETEORS (SNOWFLAKES) WOULD HAVE
POTENTIAL TO MELT AND THEN REFREEZE BEFORE OR UPON HITTING THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, THE GFS AND SEVERAL OTHER CAMS, INCLUDING THE
HRRR, ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARM NOSE, AND LOOKING AT
OVERALL NBM PROBABILITIES OF ICE, THERE HAS BEEN A DOWNWARD TREND,
BUT A BIT OF AN EXPANSION WESTWARD OF THE LOW PROBABILITIES TOWARD
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL THIS TO SAY, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF NM, AND
OVERALL ICE ACCUMULATION WILL LARGELY STAY AT LESS THAN 0.10 INCH
WITH SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE TONIGHT.
INTO SATURDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF OF CA AND
MOVING INTO SONORA, MX BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN NM WITH COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WARM,
MOIST ADVECTION WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION SWATHS STRETCHING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM. BY THIS
TIME THE POLAR JET WILL ALSO BE USHERING ANOTHER CONTINENTAL POLAR
SHORTWAVE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS, AND THIS WILL BEGIN GENERATING
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH
CENTRAL NM. OVERALL, SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR PERIODIC BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION IS MODELED LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH BOTH UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES REINVIGORATING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE BAJA LOW WILL GET ABSORBED
AS A WEAKER, BUT STILL VERY MOISURE-LADEN, OPEN WAVE OVER FAR WEST
TX AND SE NM SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NM, AND THIS IS MODELED
A BIT QUICKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE CONVERGENCE OF THESE UPPER
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION
GOING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH HEALTHY PRECIP RATES.
ANY PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE IS MODELED TO DISPERSE IN THE
EAST, AND WESTERN AREAS WILL OBSERVE FALLING SNOW LEVELS, SO P-TYPE
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, KEEPING THIS
TIME FRAME A HIGH-IMPACT WINDOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY COLD WITH MANY WESTERN ZONES
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WHILE EASTERN AREAS DROP A
COUPLE TO A FEW MORE DEGREES.
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAKES ITS WAY INTO WEST TX.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN MANY AREAS WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS RETAINING A FEW BATCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN 10 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH MOST OF
THE WESTERN ZONES MANAGING THE MID 30'S AND THE EASTERN ZONES
STAYING BELOW FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
NOW BEING MODELED WITH THE POLAR JET USHERING IT INTO CO, NORTHEAST
NM, AND THE NEIGHBORING PANHANDLES OF OK/TX. THIS FEATURE DOES HAVE
AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL HOST ENOUGH COLD AIR AND
BAROCLINICITY TO PRODUCE SOME DYNAMICS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW POPS (40% OR LESS) ARE IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH QPF PROJECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AT A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE BIGGER IMPACT FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD HARSH TEMPERATURES
WITH LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO READINGS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
BY THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK A BIT MORE
WESTERLY WHILE DRYING. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS THEN ADVERTISED
OVER EASTERN CO WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER MOST OF THE
NM PLAINS. WHILE THIS WOULD SUGGEST WARMING TEMPERATURES, MUCH OF
THE AVAILABLE ENERGY, ADIABATIC OR DIABATIC, WOULD GO INTO MELTING
SNOW. THIS WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR MANY
EASTERN ZONES MONDAY WITH ONLY MODEST OR NEGLIGIBLE GAINS IN THE
WEST AS WELL.
THE FLOW ALOFT RETAINS A WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION INTO TUESDAY WITH
AN UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT IS SLATED TO CROSS NM INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. THE WARM
UP WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY STUNTED OVER AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL NM
WHERE SNOWPACK LINGERS. THEREAFTER, THE NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION
HAS A WIDER VARIANCE ON POSSIBLE TRACKS. NONE APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MAKERS, BUT THEY COULD ALTER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THROUGH SATURDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE THAT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. IN
THE EASTERN HALF, AN ARCTIC FRONT IS ARRIVING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND
SLEET. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MORE-SO OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC BREAKS BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO
(CEILINGS COMMONLY DROPPING BETWEEN 400 TO 1000 FT AND VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 1/2 TO 2 MILES). MEANWHILE A MIX OF VFR TO MVFR (CEILINGS
LESS THAN 3,000 FT AND VISIBILITY BELOW 5 MILES) WILL BE MORE
COMMON IN THE WESTERN HALF, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS (BELOW
6,500 TO 7,500 FEET) WHERE RAIN IS MORE COMMON. MOUNTAIN PEAK
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER MOST NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL RANGES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE (5 TO 15
KT).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS BRINGING AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE
RAPIDLY PLUMMETING WITH FRIGID ARCTIC AIR CONTINUING TO SETTLE INTO
EASTERN NM THROUGH SATURDAY. COLDER AIR THEN OVERTAKES REMAINING
AREAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SNOW WILL WANE SUNDAY MORNING,
BUT A WIDESPREAD SNOW FIELD (ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM)
WILL BE SLOW TO MELT GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM UP. BENEFICIAL SOIL AND FUEL MOISTURE
SHOULD COME FROM THE SNOW, AND NO CRITICAL OR WIDESPREAD WIND
CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 43 17 37 / 80 70 20 0
DULCE........................... 26 39 5 33 / 90 90 50 10
CUBA............................ 26 36 8 32 / 90 80 60 10
GALLUP.......................... 26 41 9 37 / 80 80 50 5
EL MORRO........................ 29 38 10 34 / 80 80 70 10
GRANTS.......................... 26 42 12 38 / 80 80 70 10
QUEMADO......................... 31 40 12 33 / 80 80 70 20
MAGDALENA....................... 34 45 21 36 / 80 80 80 30
DATIL........................... 31 42 16 33 / 80 80 80 20
RESERVE......................... 32 48 16 43 / 80 80 80 30
GLENWOOD........................ 35 51 21 49 / 90 80 80 30
CHAMA........................... 23 33 4 26 / 90 90 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 33 14 31 / 90 90 70 30
PECOS........................... 18 27 7 27 / 90 90 80 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 33 8 26 / 80 80 80 20
RED RIVER....................... 15 26 2 20 / 80 80 80 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 31 -8 23 / 80 80 80 30
TAOS............................ 23 34 7 29 / 80 80 70 20
MORA............................ 16 29 6 29 / 80 80 80 20
ESPANOLA........................ 21 35 8 35 / 90 80 70 20
SANTA FE........................ 24 30 11 28 / 90 90 80 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 31 9 30 / 90 90 80 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 39 16 35 / 90 90 80 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 40 17 38 / 90 80 80 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 42 10 40 / 90 80 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 40 17 38 / 90 80 80 20
BELEN........................... 34 47 18 40 / 90 80 80 30
BERNALILLO...................... 30 39 13 38 / 90 90 80 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 31 44 13 40 / 90 80 80 30
CORRALES........................ 31 40 14 38 / 90 80 80 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 33 45 17 40 / 90 80 80 30
PLACITAS........................ 30 36 14 34 / 90 90 80 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 40 16 38 / 90 80 80 20
SOCORRO......................... 37 49 23 42 / 80 80 80 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 32 11 30 / 90 90 80 30
TIJERAS......................... 29 33 12 31 / 90 90 80 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 23 29 8 29 / 90 90 80 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 18 29 5 30 / 90 80 80 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 15 21 6 24 / 90 80 80 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 34 7 30 / 90 90 90 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 36 7 29 / 90 90 90 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 41 13 32 / 90 80 90 50
RUIDOSO......................... 25 33 10 30 / 90 90 90 70
CAPULIN......................... 4 16 3 26 / 60 50 60 10
RATON........................... 7 18 3 28 / 60 60 70 20
SPRINGER........................ 8 20 5 31 / 60 50 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 12 20 5 29 / 80 80 70 20
CLAYTON......................... 3 12 6 28 / 80 70 70 20
ROY............................. 6 14 5 27 / 80 70 80 10
CONCHAS......................... 8 17 6 32 / 80 80 90 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 11 17 6 28 / 90 80 90 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 6 16 4 29 / 80 80 90 20
CLOVIS.......................... 10 16 6 25 / 80 80 90 40
PORTALES........................ 9 19 5 27 / 80 80 90 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 11 20 8 27 / 90 80 90 30
ROSWELL......................... 22 26 11 26 / 90 90 90 40
PICACHO......................... 21 27 9 31 / 90 90 80 40
ELK............................. 21 31 8 33 / 90 90 80 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ202>204-206-208.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210>218-
221>224-229-232>234-237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ227-228-230-
231.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ207-219-225-241.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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