095
FXUS65 KABQ 290036 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
636 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2020
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT CONTINUING MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FAT MOST TAF LOCATIONS LATE MORNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
33
PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2020
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS STORE TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS SUNDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF WIND, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
A WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK TO GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY, CONTINUING
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST WILL
BEGIN TO STEER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND DULCE AND CHAMA. AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM, MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
WITH GOOD BUOYANT MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM A FEW TO AROUND 14 DEGREES ABOVE
TODAY'S READINGS, WHILE REMAINING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST AND AS
MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A MAINLY DRY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH NM MONDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CO LINE
MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCES ELSEWHERE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST- NWLY
TUESDAY, ALLOWING A WARMING TREND TO GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW TO AS MUCH AS
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
SEVERAL DEGREES MORE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECWMF AGREE THAT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH NEAR
WHERE A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BRISK WINDS CONTINUE
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STOUT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT
COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
44/33
FIRE WEATHER
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO AROUND
14 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, ALTHOUGH HAINES INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE
(WITH LOCALIZED 5'S) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS MONDAY MORNING CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TO WINDY ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB 15% HUMIDITIES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THERE.
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF NM DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEAK WITH LIGHTER WINDS, DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEAK, BUT A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. SOME DRY AND
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THURSDAY, WHILE THE FRONT TRIGGERS MORE WETTING PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS THE FRONT TRIES TO REACH THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AND DRY, WITH MORE WETTING PRECIP FURTHER EAST.
44
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page