779
FXUS65 KABQ 210721
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1221 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MOST PLACES STARTING MONDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT WIND AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY IS ALREADY IN NORTHERN KANSAS, WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT INCHING INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NM AS OF MIDNIGHT.
THERE ARE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR FUNNELING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME REMNANT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE
THE COLDEST NIGHT IN A WHILE FOR MANY AREAS, WITH STRONGER VALLEY
INVERSIONS DEVELOPING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW MEXICO. OTHER THAN A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN, HELPING TO LOWER THE FIRE DANGER THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR
DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS (AND THEREFORE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE) WILL
ALLOW STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-20S OR LOWER IN ALL AREAS, AND VERY COLD
SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MORENO
VALLEY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE AND REACH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER THE JET STREAM WILL STAY NORTH OF NEW MEXICO, KEEPING
THE AREA DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. THE JET WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD BY MID-WEEK, RESULTING
IN STRONGER WIND SPEEDS, GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM THESE DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EAST, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S AS FAR NORTH AS SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAVE EASTERN NM VULNERABLE TO DRY
BACKDOOR FRONTAL INTRUSIONS MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL BOUNCE
TEMPERATURES AROUND OUT THERE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LARGELY UNCHANGED LATE WEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND PERIODIC
BACKDOOR FRONTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~25%) THAT SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BREEZY NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSAF AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT FOR KABQ AND KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
A BREAK IN THE HIGH FIRE DANGER ARRIVES TODAY, WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE QUITE LOW (LESS THAN 15% ALONG THE RGV AND
IN EASTERN NM), WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, RISING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THROUGH MONDAY, VENTILATION WILL BE
POOR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, WITH FAIR VALUES IN THE EAST. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS THE
JET STREAM GRADUALLY DIPS DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
INCREASE WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY RETURNING FOR AT LEAST THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODIC DRY BACKDOOR
FRONTAL INTRUSIONS ARE LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK IN EASTERN NM,
KNOCKING DOWN TEMPS SLIGHTLY AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES. THE PATTERN
WILL CHANGE LITTLE LATE WEEK, WITH LOW HUMIDITIES, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZE IN MOST
AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 40 17 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 3 51 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 41 17 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 9 55 15 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 21 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 14 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 21 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 27 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 46 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 57 21 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 61 24 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 7 45 18 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 22 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 45 18 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 16 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 31 11 40 20 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 -3 46 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 42 9 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 45 14 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 49 15 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 23 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 20 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 27 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 24 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 52 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 20 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 25 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 26 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 25 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 24 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 26 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 19 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 13 58 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 19 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 21 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 21 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 42 15 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 45 13 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 48 12 58 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 45 17 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 22 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 47 18 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 20 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 21 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 19 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 23 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 22 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 20 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 57 26 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 24 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 22 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page