897
FXUS65 KABQ 132015
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
215 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 152 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS WEEKEND.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING
WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
A BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW BISECTING THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH FROM KFMN TO
KCQC AND KROW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. OTHERWISE,
WARMER TODAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN AND DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ACROSS NM, THIS WILL MEAN THAT MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, INCREASING FROM AROUND 20 KT AT
NOON TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT BY 6PM. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MIXING, SOME OF THIS
MOMENTUM WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, A 990-992 SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL INCREASE
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NM. ALL-IN-ALL, WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, WHILE
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARRIVE. AT THEIR
PEAK, GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SLIGHTLY
LOWER WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE DREADFULLY LOW.
ON SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT AS MID LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, WIND SPEEDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN H7 WINDS CLIMB
TO BETWEEN 50 AND 70KT. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BRING THIS
HIGHER MOMENTUM DOWN TO LOWER ELEVATIONS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INCLUDING NEAR KCQC, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
BY MID MORNING SUNDAY, BOTH THE PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN THEIR TREK ACROSS NM. WITH EACH FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
STRONGER WINDS AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TO OR BELOW ZERO (LIKELY
BELOW) AND DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL STILL BE LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, EXCEPT JUST EAST OF
THE EAST MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS MAY
REACH 70 MPH. WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE ALSO
LIKELY. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, AS WELL AS THE SANTA FE AND ABQ
METRO AREAS. AT LEAST WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE,
BUT THIS HIGH WIND WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED A BIT WESTWARD WITH
LATER UPDATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FALL ON THE ORDER
OF 20 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS, THOUGH NORTHEAST NM WILL
FALL AS MUCH AS 35 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN NM, AND 60S TO 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
BRIEFLY PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN IN THE EVENING TO BRING A LIGHT GAP WIND TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HOWEVER, BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
EVERYWHERE. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE BELOW ZERO.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WON'T BE IDEAL BECAUSE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT A HARD FREEZE SEEMS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE LAST HARD
FREEZE (<=28 DEGF) FOR THE ABQ SUNPORT WAS FEB 22, AND THIS ALSO
HAPPENED TO BE THE ONLY HARD FREEZE IN FEBRUARY. THOSE WITH EARLY
BLOOMING FRUIT TREES OR OTHER GARDEN PLANTS WILL NEED TO TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT THEM.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BUT
THOSE PLACES THAT ARE NORMALLY BREEZY TO WINDY IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE AGAIN ON MONDAY. THIS INCLUDES AREAS FROM KFMN TO KAEG AND
KCQC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NM, THOUGH
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WILL BOUNCE BACK UPWARD SEVERAL
DEGREES. ALL AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THEREAFTER, LESS WIND BUT RECORD WARMTH LOOKS TO BE ON TAP AS AN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPS WILL JUMP 10 TO 25 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY, BUT RECORD WARMTH
LOOKS TO LARGELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECAST TEMPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MORE LIKE WHAT IS NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. ALL-TIME MARCH RECORDS
WILL LIKELY BE SUPERSEDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL IMPACT AREAS FROM KFMN TO KAEG TO KROW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 32KT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WHERE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST. NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE, BUT WILL START EARLIER AND
LINGER LONGER ACROSS EASTERN NM. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH
IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AS WELL. HAVE
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND EXTENDED THE RFW THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BUT SHORTENED THE TIME SPAN FROM
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL, BUT MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY WILL BRING THIS STRONGER MOMENTUM TO LOWER ELEVATIONS
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MID
MORNING, BOTH PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL ENTER
NORTHERN NM AND THEN WILL RACE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS AND EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW. GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT RH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE DESPITE COOLING
TEMPERATURES. LESS WIND IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FELT FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WARM UP AFTER MONDAY. LESS WIND
AND RECORD HEAT IS ON TAP FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 74 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 70 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 32 72 36 51 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 74 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 69 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 75 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 73 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 42 75 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 71 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 76 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 79 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 63 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 69 43 52 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 37 70 40 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 66 36 45 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 29 56 30 35 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 62 30 44 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 27 70 32 50 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 36 70 37 51 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 35 77 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 37 71 44 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 73 42 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 77 48 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 79 47 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 81 46 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 80 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 83 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 80 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 81 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 80 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 82 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 75 47 58 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 79 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 84 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 72 45 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 72 45 56 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 73 45 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 76 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 70 40 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 75 44 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 73 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 76 47 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 71 48 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 72 29 43 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 30 79 30 51 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 32 78 37 53 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 75 41 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 41 81 33 45 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 38 79 41 51 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 38 85 46 62 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 80 51 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 87 45 60 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 42 86 48 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 40 87 50 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 86 51 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 89 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 82 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 42 79 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109-120>122-124.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ104-123-125.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ212>215-218-219-221>224-226>240.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ125.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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