077
FXUS65 KABQ 081954
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
154 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
A WEAK EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH REMAINS OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM
TODAY. MODEST MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
LOOK LIGHT OVERALL, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE, A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND LIGHT WINDS.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW MAY SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT OVERALL (<0.10"). MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TO
STRENGTHEN. GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM TODAY
AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE TS RACHEL WILL BE SHEARED APART AND THE
MOISTURE REMNANTS WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A PACIFIC LOW WEST OF THE
BAJA ON SATURDAY. THEN THOSE MOISTURE REMNANTS WILL SHIFT INTO
SOCAL AND SW AZ SUNDAY. WHILE RACHEL STAYS WELL WEST OF NM, PWATS
WILL INCREASE OVER NM THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES. PWATS AROUND 0.50" ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RISE
TOWARD 0.75-0.80" ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON
SATURDAY, AND BETWEEN 0.75-1.00" AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF NM EACH DAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MOST AREAS SHOULD PICK UP LESS THAN 0.25"
THOUGH MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRING A FEW AREAS UP TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE A BIG PLAYER
DICTATING WHAT AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
TUSAS MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED.
A DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BRING
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH TO NORTHEAST NM ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH A FEW
BREEZES WILL BE FELT ELSEWHERE. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE FROM AROUND
15-20KT ON SATURDAY TO 20-35KT ON SUNDAY AT H7. MODEST MIXING
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AREAWIDE SUNDAY AFTN.
TS SIMON WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF MEXICO BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND MAKING LANDFALL IN MX LATE SUNDAY. WHERE
THE REMNANTS OF SIMON WILL GO THEREAFTER WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC SHOW THE LOW
EJECTING EASTWARD FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, WHICH HELPS
DIRECT THE MOISTURE FROM SIMON AWAY FROM NM AND PERHAPS ONLY
CLIPPING SE OR EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. NOW MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO NM AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY. THEREFORE, BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC ARE
CONSIDERABLY DRIER FOR NM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
ALSO MEANS THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE AI AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS. GIVEN THE AI MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRIER AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN PWATS STAYING AT OR BELOW 0.75"
FOR ALL BUT EASTERN NM, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT OPERATIONAL MODELS
WILL FLIP-FLOP BACK TO A WETTER SOLUTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD IN CASE, BUT IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, POPS MAY BE REDUCED IN THE FUTURE.
THE UPPER LOW STILL LOOKS TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER OR NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUNDAY, THOUGH PERHAPS A WEAKER LOW THAN WHAT WAS
THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL IMPACT NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
DRY SLOT LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND/OR THE SOUTHWEST MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF MODERATE
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30KT POSSIBLE. A STRAY STORM ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS. ALL STORMS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP STARTING FRIDAY AND AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS NE NM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL KEEP BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS NE NM SATURDAY, THEN AS FLOW INCREASES
ALOFT, MIXING WILL ALLOW BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP NEARLY AREAWIDE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NM, THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. LATEST
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME
WILL NOT BE AS WET, AND RATHER, A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE
STATE. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER CHANGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 80 52 75 / 5 10 10 20
DULCE........................... 39 75 41 70 / 5 10 10 30
CUBA............................ 44 72 46 69 / 5 5 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 39 77 46 73 / 5 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 41 73 44 69 / 5 10 5 40
GRANTS.......................... 40 76 45 71 / 5 5 10 30
QUEMADO......................... 42 74 46 70 / 5 10 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 48 72 50 70 / 5 0 5 20
DATIL........................... 43 70 45 67 / 5 5 10 30
RESERVE......................... 43 77 45 74 / 5 5 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 51 83 53 81 / 5 10 10 20
CHAMA........................... 41 68 41 62 / 10 10 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 71 50 69 / 5 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 44 72 45 71 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 70 44 67 / 5 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 33 62 36 58 / 10 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 67 30 65 / 5 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 39 73 42 69 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 41 71 41 70 / 5 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 46 77 48 76 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 48 73 49 71 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 76 48 73 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 77 54 76 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 78 55 77 / 5 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 79 54 78 / 0 0 5 10
BELEN........................... 47 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 52 80 53 79 / 0 0 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 51 80 53 79 / 0 0 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 52 76 53 75 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 79 54 78 / 5 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 54 82 55 79 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 71 50 71 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 51 72 52 73 / 5 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 74 48 74 / 5 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 72 47 72 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 72 48 72 / 5 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 71 48 72 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 75 54 76 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 69 49 71 / 10 5 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 45 72 47 72 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 41 78 44 78 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 39 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 73 45 73 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 78 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 80 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 76 50 78 / 5 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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