417
FXUS65 KABQ 280230 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
830 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 827 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE CANYONS AND GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING.
- DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CREATE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 827 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS OBS INDICATE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS RELAXING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. ALTHOUGH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH MAY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BELOW CANYONS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ABQ METRO, THE HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
HIGH CONTRAST WEATHER PATTERN IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM WHILE WINDS HAVE SWITCHED
DIRECTION WITH STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS IN THESE AREAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES ALSO SEEM TO CONTRAST WITH ONE ANOTHER, A
STOUT 588 DECAMETER HIGH SPRAWLING ACROSS MX AND TX WHILE A 1040 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS GOING
THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER TONIGHT, FLIRTING
WITH THE FREEZING MARK, BUT STILL JUST NEAR AVERAGE IN MOST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN QUITE PREVALENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BURN OFF
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BE VEERING IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TIME, AND THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST COMPONENT AIDED
BY A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO START INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WITH A FEW VIRGA
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY TAKING SHAPE, NAMELY IN WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES PER THE INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE
AREAS. THESE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INTRODUCE SOME ROGUE WIND
GUSTS AS RAIN QUICKLY EVAPORATES INTO THE VERY ARID SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RELOCATE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF ON SUNDAY
WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE FARTHER WEST NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO WILL KEEP STEERING MODEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO NM. SUBTLE STEEPENING OF THE
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO OCCUR SUNDAY, AND SO ANY VIRGA
SHOWERS THAT TRY TO DEVELOP LIKE ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF GROWING IN HEIGHT WITH A COUPLE TO A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES POSSIBLE, MOSTLY IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE DOWNSLOPING BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES, AND
ALL AREAS SHOULD SPIKE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BAJA TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND INTO
MONDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE OF THE MODEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WHERE ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PROSPECTS FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE VERY LOW THOUGH (<10%), AND
MOST LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY JUST SEE A COUPLE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH, IF ANYTHING.
INTO TUESDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS INCREASINGLY ZONAL WITH A COUPLE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS SKIMMING ALONG THE NORTHERN NM-CO BORDER. THE
STREAM OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE
STATE, AND FEEBLE FORCING FROM THE PERTURBATION WILL YIELD A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND ANEMIC THUNDERSTORMS. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER SOME IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN NM SHORTWAVE, AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
FEW TO SEVERAL (3 TO 15) DEGREES. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ALSO NUDGE
INTO NORTHEAST NM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN AMBIGUOUS FATE PER
LATEST DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS, AS THE GFS KEEPS IT FROM
INVADING MUCH OF THE STATE WHILE THE ECMWF DRAWS IT IN MUCH MORE
FORCIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN LOOKS TO CROSS NM INTO
WEDNESDAY, OFFERING STRONGER FORCING AND ANOTHER BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WOULD CONTINUE COOLING, EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, AND THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES ABOVE 9KFT IN
NORTHERN NM. THIS PRECIP OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE TRANSIENT WITH A DRY
SLOT WORKING INTO NM ON THURSDAY WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD
ACCOMPANY THIS WEDNESDAY SHORTWAVE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY,
MIMICKING A MUCH MORE TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RGV THRU AROUND 2AM
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT. LLWS AND TURBULENCE WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THIS AREA UNTIL SURFACE WINDS RELAX. A LARGE AREA OF
VFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NM THRU SATURDAY
MORNING WITH MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STRATUS WILL THEN BURN OFF BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THRU THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
LAST NIGHT'S AND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT HAS SENT TEMPERATURES
TUMBLING WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS STILL IN PROGRESS. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO DECREASE IN SPEED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND THIS WEEKEND, GETTING CLOSE TO OR
SURPASSING NORMAL ON SATURDAY, THEN SURGING BEYOND BY 10 TO 20
DEGREES ON SUNDAY. CONCERNS ON SATURDAY WILL INCLUDE WINDY
CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERN NM, AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN COLFAX AND
MORA COUNTIES WITH HUMIDITY (15 TO 20%) BEING THE LIMITER FOR WHAT
WOULD OTHERWISE BE MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS. INTO SUNDAY, THE LEE-
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE
WESTERLY, AND THIS WILL PLACE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF
MARGINAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS OF NM (LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS). FARTHER
WEST, THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE IN WESTERN (AND PARTICULARLY
SOUTHWESTERN) ZONES WHEN FAINT MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH
VERY HIGH ERC'S AND DRY FUEL CONDITIONS, NEW IGNITION THREATS WILL
BE A CONCERN WITH THESE DRY STORMS.
THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
AS A CONTINUED FETCH OF MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS GETTING
STEERED INTO NM. WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES WOULD BE FAVORED FOR THESE
VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS WHILE NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO FACE BREEZY TO WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS. WIND
SPEEDS APPEAR TO BE MORE MARGINAL ON MONDAY, INCREASING ON TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
DESPITE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY, COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HELP PRECLUDE THE CRITICAL
THREAT. CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD RETURN IN EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY
AS A DRY SLOT ALOFT ARRIVES ALONG WITH WARMER AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 76 41 79 / 0 5 5 5
DULCE........................... 28 71 31 75 / 0 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 30 67 37 75 / 0 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 32 76 34 77 / 0 5 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 32 72 37 73 / 0 10 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 29 73 35 77 / 0 10 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 35 75 39 74 / 0 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 32 68 44 76 / 0 10 10 10
DATIL........................... 31 71 41 73 / 0 10 10 10
RESERVE......................... 33 74 35 80 / 0 10 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 36 76 39 84 / 0 5 5 10
CHAMA........................... 28 65 34 68 / 0 5 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 67 45 73 / 0 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 28 67 39 75 / 0 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 29 67 39 71 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 61 33 64 / 0 10 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 17 65 27 68 / 0 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 25 69 32 75 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 25 71 40 73 / 5 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 72 39 81 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 34 67 43 75 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 69 40 78 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 37 70 49 79 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 72 48 81 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 31 74 40 84 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 38 72 46 82 / 0 5 5 5
BELEN........................... 34 73 40 83 / 0 5 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 36 72 44 82 / 0 5 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 31 73 38 83 / 0 5 5 5
CORRALES........................ 36 72 44 83 / 0 5 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 33 72 39 83 / 0 5 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 36 69 48 78 / 0 5 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 71 47 81 / 0 5 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 38 72 47 84 / 0 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 66 46 74 / 0 5 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 33 67 46 75 / 0 5 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 68 42 76 / 0 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 71 32 79 / 0 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 65 40 75 / 0 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 67 41 77 / 0 5 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 65 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 67 44 80 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 23 66 38 75 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 26 67 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 72 35 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 28 74 35 82 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 69 41 78 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 69 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 30 68 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 73 43 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 71 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 71 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 67 43 88 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 37 70 40 88 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 36 68 38 88 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 40 67 41 86 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 34 69 43 83 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 29 68 41 81 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
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