974
FXUS65 KABQ 141123 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
- LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND GUST TO 55 MPH OR GREATER FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY MONDAY TOO, WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AROUND THE REGION ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL OUT THERE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER NEW
MEXICO IS BEING TILTED ZONALLY AS THE STATE COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE OVER EASTERN NM BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE VERY DEEP (UP TO 18KFT) SO THERE WILL BE
QUITE A BIT OF DCAPE TO GENERATE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. IN ADDITION,
THESE WILL MIX DOWN BACKGROUND WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT 500 MB DOWN
TO THE SFC, WITH INTERMITTENTLY GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS A RESULT. IT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE WILL BE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE TX BORDER DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, THE
DOWNSLOPING BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM IN EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON, CHALLENGING A FEW RECORD HIGHS. IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, BUT STILL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARIZONA WILL EJECT ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. IT COULD GENERATE A FEW FAST-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ONCE AGAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LARGELY UNCHANGED FRIDAY
DESPITE THE INTRUSION OF THIS FRONT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER NEW MEXICO, BUT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY AS NEW MEXICO
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 700 MB WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE
LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS MEAN SFC
PRESSURE ARE SHOWING A 992 MB SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST CO,
WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 50 MPH.
WINDS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST FORECAST
UPDATE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THERE FROM BEING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF
THIS TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THIS DECREASES ON TUESDAY. THE ENS
EXITS THIS TROUGH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY WHEREAS THE OTHER
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS KEEP THE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THE JET STREAM OVER NEW
MEXICO UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY BEFORE HEIGHTS FINALLY RISE AGAIN.
THE WEAKENING OF ZONAL FLOW COULD ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO SNEAK INTO
EASTERN NM STARTING THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG A TIGHTENING DRYLINE THESE
DAYS AS WELL, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH BASED GUSTY SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER EASTERN NM BETWEEN 18Z
AND 00Z. SHOWERS HAVE THE POTENTIALLY TO PRODUCE STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND KICK UP BLOWING DUST, CREATING
MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS IN FAR
EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON TOO, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
A WEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM, WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS (20 TO 30 KTS) IN EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHILE IT WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY IN EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, RFTI
VALUES WERE TOO LOW (2-4) TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE OF THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH. HOWEVER, DRY STORMS WILL BE A THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 MPH, WHICH COULD KICK UP BLOWING
DUST AS WELL. LINGERING MOISTURE, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE,
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INTERACT OVER NORTHEASTERN NM TO PRODUCE
A FEW MORE GUSTY SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY AS
WELL, EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
PACIFIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TREND STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEW MEXICO COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH. BREEZY CONDITIONS TURN
WINDY SUNDAY AS HUMIDITY DROPS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP AS LOW AS 5% IN EASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10
HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH ON SUNDAY AS WELL. WITH STRONG WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, DEEP MIXING, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND CLEAR SKIES,
SUNDAY HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A HIGH-END RED FLAG DAY.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE GREAT BASIN
TROUGH REMAINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BEYOND MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE FIRE GROWING
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 46 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 36 83 37 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 47 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 79 44 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 53 80 52 / 5 0 10 0
DATIL........................... 79 48 77 47 / 0 0 5 0
RESERVE......................... 85 41 84 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 88 41 87 39 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 75 37 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 0
PECOS........................... 80 48 80 47 / 5 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 45 77 45 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 67 39 68 40 / 5 0 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 31 74 31 / 0 0 10 0
TAOS............................ 81 39 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 80 48 79 47 / 5 5 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 86 48 86 48 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 80 51 80 51 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 48 83 48 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 57 86 57 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 54 88 54 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 92 49 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 91 46 89 44 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 90 53 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 44 89 43 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 91 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 45 89 44 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 85 56 84 56 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 93 58 90 56 / 5 5 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 52 81 53 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 83 52 82 52 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 84 51 83 50 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 47 84 45 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 50 80 49 / 10 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 50 82 49 / 10 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 53 81 50 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 58 84 56 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 81 58 78 56 / 5 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 81 47 78 45 / 10 5 30 0
RATON........................... 85 45 83 44 / 10 5 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 87 45 85 45 / 10 5 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 50 82 49 / 5 5 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 90 57 87 54 / 20 10 20 10
ROY............................. 86 50 84 49 / 10 5 30 0
CONCHAS......................... 94 53 93 53 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 55 89 54 / 20 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 56 96 55 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 96 58 96 56 / 20 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 59 97 57 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 57 94 55 / 20 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 97 64 96 59 / 10 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 91 60 89 59 / 10 5 0 0
ELK............................. 90 58 87 55 / 10 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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