242
FXUS65 KABQ 042330 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING ONTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP AS WELL WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. HEAT-ILLNESSES
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM AN OVERNIGHT MCS ACROSS KS HAS
RACED SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM MUCH FASTER AND EARLIER THAN
MODELS WERE INDICATING. STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL OWING TO BETWEEN
1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS, DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE LOW SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED, OR WOULD BE VERY BRIEF. HOWEVER, STORMS
IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE
DRY LOW LEVELS. THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS FROM THESE STORMS. ACROSS WESTERN NM, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED ON AZ
RADARS THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY ACROSS WESTERN
NM, BUT VIRGA APPEARS VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VIRGA
SHOWERS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS AND SOME OF THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY SHIFT INTO THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING.
THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. THESE
MAY ALSO HAVE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. THESE
OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, BRINGING EAST (SOUTHEAST) WINDS TO ALBUQUERQUE (SANTA FE)
BY EARLY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK PACIFIC DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TAP TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOCAL AND AZ TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NM.
SUNDAY WILL MUCH MORE ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN NM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
NUDGED UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST SLOPES,
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM ON ANY
REMAINING BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION. MUCH LIKE TODAY,
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 20-30KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL ALLOW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. STORMS WILL
GENERALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTERS
OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE, THE
ADDED MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL RESULT IN MORE VIRGA AND
SPRINKLES, AND PERHAPS A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE, TOO, WILL HAVE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
THE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH ANOTHER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WITH THE HELP OF THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION,
WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HIGH TERRAIN STORMS AREAWIDE ON
MONDAY. IN TYPICAL MONSOON FASHION, STORMS SHOULD ERUPT OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS WILL TAKE STORMS
GENERALLY TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ONTO ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN NM, WITH DRIER STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OVER AZ ON TUESDAY, BUT
MOISTURE OVER NM WILL RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY OVERALL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
WESTWARD FOR WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST NM AND
THIS MAY TAPER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SLIGHTLY, BUT THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL REMAIN FAVORED. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NM
ON THURSDAY, DECREASING STORM COVERAGE FURTHER. THE UPPER HIGH
STARTS TO SLIDE BACK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY THEN WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY TO 600DAM AT H5 AS IT CENTERED OVER THE
UT/CO BORDER. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. MODERATE HEAT
RISK WILL EXIST FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FAVOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH
THE EVENING, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
MOISTURE WILL PUSH WESTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS
MAKING IT INTO THE RGV BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED VIRGA SHOWERS
IN THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
SCATTERED STORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THROUGH
TONIGHT, WHILE VIRGA SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN NM. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES ON SUNDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WHILE MORE VIRGA, SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS DRY LIGHTNING
IMPACTS WESTERN NM. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM. STARTING MONDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAWIDE, THEN
SPREAD ONTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 46 91 50 91 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 57 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 54 90 55 90 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 56 84 57 86 / 0 10 0 40
GRANTS.......................... 56 89 58 89 / 5 0 5 50
QUEMADO......................... 60 85 60 87 / 5 10 5 50
MAGDALENA....................... 65 86 65 87 / 5 10 10 50
DATIL........................... 61 83 62 84 / 10 10 10 60
RESERVE......................... 57 91 57 92 / 5 10 5 60
GLENWOOD........................ 60 97 62 97 / 0 5 5 50
CHAMA........................... 45 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 86 64 85 / 0 10 0 40
PECOS........................... 57 88 55 88 / 0 20 5 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 85 55 85 / 0 10 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 42 75 45 75 / 0 20 0 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 79 41 79 / 0 20 5 40
TAOS............................ 52 87 52 88 / 0 5 5 20
MORA............................ 54 81 52 83 / 0 30 10 50
ESPANOLA........................ 60 94 61 93 / 0 5 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 88 61 88 / 0 5 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 91 58 91 / 0 5 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 94 67 94 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 65 97 64 97 / 0 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 65 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 65 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 95 66 95 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 71 98 70 98 / 0 5 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 88 61 88 / 0 10 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 62 90 61 90 / 0 10 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 88 57 90 / 0 20 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 88 53 91 / 0 20 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 54 86 / 0 30 5 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 89 57 90 / 0 20 5 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 87 59 88 / 0 30 5 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 91 64 90 / 0 40 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 61 82 58 83 / 5 60 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 52 81 51 85 / 30 70 20 40
RATON........................... 54 85 51 90 / 10 50 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 86 53 91 / 5 40 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 85 54 86 / 0 30 10 50
CLAYTON......................... 60 89 58 92 / 40 40 40 10
ROY............................. 58 85 56 88 / 10 30 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 94 60 96 / 10 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 90 59 93 / 5 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 94 62 96 / 30 30 40 5
CLOVIS.......................... 66 92 63 93 / 40 20 50 10
PORTALES........................ 67 94 63 95 / 30 20 50 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 94 62 95 / 20 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 70 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 65 91 62 92 / 5 20 10 30
ELK............................. 62 87 59 88 / 10 40 10 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...16
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