603
FXUS65 KABQ 200004 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
504 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL PLAGUE MUCH
OF EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED ROADWAYS.
- SNOW WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF SNOW SQUALLS EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
FRIDAY MORNING AS A BLUSTERY COLD FRONT CROSSES WEST CENTRAL,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TODAY AND
FRIDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE
AREAWIDE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IS OVER CENTRAL CA PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO RACE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE
STRONG WINDS, SNOW TO THE NORTHERN/WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH ON FRIDAY, WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH DOWN TO
BETWEEN -6 AND -10C ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN NM ON FRIDAY. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FROM STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, WILL RESULT IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS, WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 10-12", BUT LESSER AMOUNTS OF 3-6"
ARE FORECAST IN CHAMA AND NEARBY COMMUNITIES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS, JEMEZ AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
AND DO NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY OR WARNING AT THIS
TIME. STRONG WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REACH UP TO 50KTS AT 700MB ON FRIDAY, WITH STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN
FOCUS AREA FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60MPH WILL BE SOME OF THE USUAL
SUSPECTS BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS, LAS VEGAS AND SANTA ROSA, WHERE A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY. SURROUNDING THAT
AREA AND EXTENDING EAST TO THE TX BORDER IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE SAME PERIOD. BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS WELL, BUT
LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENT. FOR NOW, THE MIDDLE RGV
AND CHAVES COUNTY NEAR ROSWELL ARE THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED. SNOW AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION RESULTING IN A COLD NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MX AND THE SOUTHWEST US.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS MODELED TO PERSIST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 PM MST THU FEB 19 2026
ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD WINDY
CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MVFR OR BRIEFLY
IFR IN SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS FOR KFMN AND KGUP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD PRODUCE
SNOW SQUALL-LIKE CONDITIONS AT THESE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KSAF AROUND
MID-DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR PREVAILS. KROW COULD SEE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING DUST FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST IN
THE TAF AT THIS JUNCTURE, THERE IS A HIGH (80%) PROBABILITY THAT
AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE NEEDED FOR KABQ FOR WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 35 KNOTS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 15-21Z FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MST THU FEB 19 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EAST
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY, BRINGING GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION, BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST US
THEREAFTER, BRINGING A WARMING/DRYING TREND AND DETERIORATING
VENTILATION GOING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND GIVES WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLIES. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AT THE SAME TIME,
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 40 15 41 / 70 50 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 34 5 42 / 80 90 10 0
CUBA............................ 22 37 14 42 / 40 60 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 39 7 43 / 60 40 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 36 14 44 / 30 50 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 20 40 11 48 / 20 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 25 41 17 49 / 10 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 47 23 48 / 5 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 26 42 19 48 / 5 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 25 46 16 56 / 20 30 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 48 20 61 / 20 30 0 0
CHAMA........................... 12 28 4 37 / 70 90 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 25 38 19 42 / 30 40 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 40 16 46 / 20 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 32 10 38 / 30 70 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 24 6 30 / 30 80 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 30 2 38 / 30 60 5 0
TAOS............................ 19 37 10 43 / 30 40 0 0
MORA............................ 18 38 14 46 / 20 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 45 16 48 / 30 30 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 41 19 44 / 20 30 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 23 43 18 46 / 20 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 47 27 51 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 49 26 52 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 51 24 55 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 49 24 53 / 10 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 28 53 21 54 / 5 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 49 23 54 / 10 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 52 20 54 / 5 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 50 23 54 / 10 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 52 21 54 / 5 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 46 24 49 / 20 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 48 24 53 / 10 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 57 26 56 / 5 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 41 22 46 / 20 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 29 44 24 46 / 10 20 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 44 20 48 / 10 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 46 15 50 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 23 41 18 45 / 5 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 27 46 21 50 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 48 21 51 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 53 27 54 / 5 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 31 46 25 51 / 10 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 42 12 43 / 0 20 0 0
RATON........................... 14 45 11 47 / 5 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 16 47 12 49 / 0 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 21 43 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 20 51 18 49 / 0 10 0 0
ROY............................. 21 48 17 48 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 24 57 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 25 54 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 59 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 60 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 62 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 60 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 35 67 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 33 55 25 59 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ104-125-126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ214-215-
223-229-232-233.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ212-221-222-
226-228-231-234>237-239-240.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR NMZ210.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...53-SCHROEDER
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