939
FXUS65 KABQ 091114 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN LITTLE
RAINFALL WITH A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE IS NOTABLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE AT THIS TIME. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRY AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NM,
BUT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM AGAIN TODAY, WITH ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NM BOOTHEEL TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, FAVORING THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING, SO DON'T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. THE SYSTEM WILL BE A QUICK-HITTER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONVECTIVE, SO OVERALL QPF IS LOW WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR 0.10" OR MORE OF LIQUID IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS WARM
SYSTEM, GENERALLY BETWEEN 8500-9500KFT, WITH ONLY THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN IN LINE TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE 565DAM 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT EAST INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE TUESDAY EVENING, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING
ACROSS EASTERN NM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BARREL SOUTH DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT HAVE TRENDED UP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MOS FOR SOME OF
OUR EASTERN PLAINS SITES. MODERATE PROBABILITIES (50-70%) FOR
WIND ADVISORY-TYPE SPEEDS EXIST FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR THE TX BORDER AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE. THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO BE DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
NM FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. THIS REGIME WILL BRING DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR
CIGS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL EAST
OF KROW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KROW THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AGAIN TODAY AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO
EASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM REMAIN DRY AND WARM. MODERATE WNW FLOW ALOFT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING WARM, DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAVORING AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
CONTINUED DRYING OF FUELS ACROSS WESTERN NM DURING THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD MAY BRING ERCS UP SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 35 67 36 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 63 27 65 26 / 0 0 20 5
CUBA............................ 66 35 63 34 / 0 20 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 67 29 63 29 / 0 20 30 5
EL MORRO........................ 65 33 58 32 / 0 40 50 10
GRANTS.......................... 70 31 63 31 / 0 30 50 10
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 55 33 / 0 60 60 20
MAGDALENA....................... 69 40 58 40 / 0 50 70 20
DATIL........................... 66 36 54 35 / 0 60 80 30
RESERVE......................... 70 33 57 31 / 0 80 70 30
GLENWOOD........................ 75 35 58 33 / 0 80 80 30
CHAMA........................... 57 30 59 26 / 0 0 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 41 62 39 / 0 20 50 20
PECOS........................... 66 35 63 36 / 0 30 60 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 36 62 31 / 0 5 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 54 31 56 25 / 0 10 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 24 58 20 / 0 20 60 30
TAOS............................ 65 30 65 28 / 0 10 40 20
MORA............................ 65 35 63 33 / 0 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 71 35 69 36 / 0 10 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 66 39 64 38 / 0 20 60 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 36 66 36 / 0 20 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 46 66 43 / 0 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 45 69 44 / 0 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 37 71 37 / 0 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 44 70 43 / 0 30 40 10
BELEN........................... 75 39 69 40 / 0 40 50 20
BERNALILLO...................... 73 42 70 41 / 0 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 37 70 36 / 0 30 50 20
CORRALES........................ 74 41 70 41 / 0 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 74 38 69 39 / 0 30 40 20
PLACITAS........................ 69 44 66 41 / 0 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 44 69 42 / 0 30 40 10
SOCORRO......................... 76 44 67 46 / 0 40 50 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 41 62 39 / 0 40 60 20
TIJERAS......................... 67 42 63 40 / 0 40 60 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 39 63 39 / 0 40 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 30 65 36 / 0 40 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 37 62 35 / 0 40 50 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 38 62 38 / 0 40 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 38 61 37 / 0 40 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 44 61 41 / 0 50 60 20
RUIDOSO......................... 67 39 56 40 / 0 50 70 30
CAPULIN......................... 70 33 67 29 / 0 10 40 30
RATON........................... 73 31 70 30 / 0 10 50 20
SPRINGER........................ 74 31 72 32 / 0 10 40 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 36 66 33 / 0 20 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 78 44 75 37 / 0 10 30 20
ROY............................. 75 39 70 36 / 0 20 40 20
CONCHAS......................... 82 40 77 41 / 0 30 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 40 72 42 / 0 40 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 43 78 41 / 0 30 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 82 48 75 41 / 0 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 83 45 77 42 / 0 30 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 41 74 44 / 0 40 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 83 47 74 46 / 0 30 40 10
PICACHO......................... 79 42 67 45 / 5 40 50 10
ELK............................. 75 40 63 42 / 0 30 60 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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