618
FXUS65 KABQ 071127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE REMAINS SITUATED OVER NEW MEXICO, BEING ACCOMPANIED
BY A 50-60KT 250MB JET ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NM. THE SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAK,
PRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GAUGES UP IN THE JEMEZ AND TUSAS
MOUNTAINS MEASURING UP TO 0.3". VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET
UP ON WEDNESDAY, WITH CAMS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE
MESSAGING REMAINS THE SAME, WITH DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WHILE THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNDER 0.1" FOR MOST AREAS, A FEW POCKETS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO
0.5-1" CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER ONE LOCATION. FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE OF THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AWARE IF YOU OBSERVE A STORM NEARBY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOUT 10F ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY, WITH
HIGH 70S TO LOW 80S IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, AND UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S IN HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE AXIS OF THE 250MB SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER INTO TX,
LEAVING NM IN A PRIMARY REGION OF SUBSIDENCE, LEADING TO A DOWNTICK
IN THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO RECEIVE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE SAME PRIMARY THREATS REMAIN
IN GUSTY WINDS AND THE LOW CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER 0.5". OF NOTE,
THE NAM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF ON THE COVERAGE OF RAINFALL FOR
THURSDAY COMPARED TO ITS RUNS YESTERDAY, ALIGNING BACK WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS. WITH PRESSURE HEIGHTS LOWERING JUST A TOUCH THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING SEES LITTLE CHANGE FROM ONE ANOTHER,
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE, BUT ARE STILL
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY/MID OCTOBER. GETTING
FURTHER THROUGH SATURDAY IS WHEN WE BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE. A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL BEGIN TO SHIFT
TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AFTER BEING SHEARED APART BY A PREVIOUS
SHORTWAVE. CURRENT MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR THE PNW TROUGH
DIGGING DOWN THE COAST OF CA AND EJECTING THE MOISTURE FROM RACHEL
PRIMARILY INTO AZ. WITH THIS FAVORED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM, TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY EVENING.
CURRENTLY, DURING THIS TIMEFRAME (SATURDAY-SUNDAY), RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5", PRIMARILY
ACROSS WESTERN NM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT TO
THE RAINFALL, SO AREAS CLOSE TO TERRAIN MAY SEE LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE TRACK OF THIS INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE
MAY FLUCTUATE, WHICH WOULD AFFECT THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS.
THE SECOND PLAYER, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT, IN THIS
SETUP IS ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN CA (THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
IS CURRENTLY DESIGNATED WITH A 90% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION FROM
THE NHC). WHILE THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS SECOND PUSH, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO NM BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD BRING ABOUT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE HAD POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY, AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
IS SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED INTO NM OR NOT. THESE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET
TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CHECK THE FORECAST AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD TODAY WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN, PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
25KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. TIMING FOR WHEN
WINDS MAY AFFECT WESTERN TAF SITES (KFMN, KGUP) IS LOW TO MODERATE,
AND CURRENT MOST LIKELY TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF. OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH CALM
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY (WITH GUSTS UP TO 35MPH), AND
THEN GRADUALLY AREAWIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN TO WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH CURRENT
FORECAST RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN
TO THE STATE IN THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 79 53 79 53 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 39 77 40 / 10 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 75 47 73 46 / 5 5 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 76 46 77 46 / 20 0 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 73 45 72 44 / 20 0 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 76 47 74 45 / 5 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 75 46 74 46 / 10 5 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 74 51 71 50 / 0 0 10 5
DATIL........................... 72 46 70 45 / 5 0 10 5
RESERVE......................... 82 47 79 46 / 10 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 86 53 83 52 / 20 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 72 42 70 42 / 30 20 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 50 71 48 / 5 5 10 5
PECOS........................... 76 45 73 44 / 0 0 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 46 72 45 / 10 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 70 33 70 33 / 10 10 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 30 69 28 / 5 10 20 10
TAOS............................ 76 42 74 42 / 5 5 10 5
MORA............................ 73 44 71 41 / 5 5 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 80 48 77 47 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 76 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 79 48 75 48 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 55 79 55 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 54 79 54 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 53 81 54 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 82 54 79 54 / 0 0 5 0
BELEN........................... 82 52 80 53 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 84 53 81 53 / 0 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 83 51 81 52 / 0 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 84 52 81 52 / 0 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 53 80 53 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 79 53 77 53 / 0 0 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 83 53 80 53 / 0 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 83 55 80 55 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 48 73 48 / 0 0 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 78 47 77 47 / 0 0 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 47 75 46 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 46 75 46 / 0 0 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 48 72 48 / 0 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 47 73 47 / 0 0 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 48 72 48 / 0 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 54 75 52 / 5 0 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 72 49 68 46 / 10 5 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 75 48 73 48 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 80 47 77 46 / 5 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 81 45 77 44 / 0 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 45 72 45 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 81 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 78 47 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 82 57 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 54 77 52 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 78 52 75 48 / 5 0 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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