480
FXUS65 KABQ 071913
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
113 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON
AREA BURN SCARS EACH DAY. A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS STARTED BUILDING MORE OVER NORTHWESTERN NM
WITH OVERALL HIGHER PWATS OF 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH IN THIS REGION. SOME
SPOKES OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAVE ROTATED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE, LOWERING THETA-E VALUES AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THERE. THIS WILL KEEP THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NM FAVORED FOR STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VERY SLOW CLOCKWISE STEERING FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH. THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BUT NORTHWESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A LOT OF DRY SUB-CLOUD
AIR TO CONTEND WITH (SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30'S AND LOW 40'S) AND
OVERCOME, SO VIRGA AND DRY STORMS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE OF CONCERN THERE. STORMS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO VALLEYS AND
LOWLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING VIA OUTFLOWS AND MESOSCALE COLD POOLS,
BUT AGAIN OVERALL STORM MOTION WILL BE SLUGGISH, OFTEN AT 5 MPH OR
LESS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL ELONGATE WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NM
INTO THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO START WRAPPING INTO
NORTHWESTERN NM WHILE A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE STATE. CONSEQUENTLY, STORMS WILL REDUCE
OVER NORTHWESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY WHILE EXPANDING MORE EASTWARD OFF
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
REMAINING SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES REPLAYING SIMILAR TO TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY ZONES, POSING MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS WITH LOTS OF 90'S BEING OBSERVED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
INTO THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ELONGATED ON A WEST-EAST AXIS,
CENTERING JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL ACTUALLY INTRODUCE
A MODEST SPEED MAX ALOFT (50-60 KT AT 300 MB) THAT WILL NOSE ITS WAY
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE ENOUGH MOMENTUM ALOFT
OVER NORTHWESTERN NM, ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR AND BREEZY
WEST WINDS (GUSTS TO 25 MPH). THIS DRIER AIR WILL SHUT DOWN STORMS
IN NORTHWESTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAINING AREAS SHOULD
STILL OBSERVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS ITS CENTROID BACK OVER NM ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
DRY AIR PIVOTING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
FURTHER EAT AWAY AT OUR STORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN HIGH COUNTRY STILL LEFT
SUPPORTING SCATTERED AFTERNOON CELLS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX
ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT TRAVERSES CO INTO KS ON FRIDAY, SO
SURFACE BREEZES ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH AS ON
THURSDAY.
THIS JET ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO USHER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THAT COULD SEND CONVECTION INTO NORTHEASTERN NM
FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON SATURDAY, AS MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD INCREASE THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WOULD START TO BUILD NORTH OF NM
INTO SATURDAY, AND MORE-SO INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SEEPAGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHEASTERN NM ON FRIDAY COULD ADD SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO STORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TRAJECTORY OF
THIS FEATURE SO FAR OUT. FOR NOW, THE POPS FAVOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
SATURDAY, SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHILE WARM TO HOT (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL)
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL
BE COMMON AVIATION HAZARDS UNDER AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
STORMS IN NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE DUE TO EVAPORATION
(VIRGA), AND THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. STORMS WILL MOSTLY DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS COULD SURVIVE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WILL
ALSO PREVAIL TODAY, SUGGESTING POOR AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE FOR MANY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NM THROUGH THE EVENING,
BUT OVERALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL BE QUITE SMALL AND ISOLATED. IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NM, DRIER LOW LAYER AIR WILL KEEP STORMS
FROM BEING AS EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAINFALL AS THEY OTHERWISE
WOULD, SO VIRGA, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT THERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL SPILL FARTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, AND
EVEN MORE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO FEWER
STORMS THERE. MEANWHILE, SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE SLOWLY PROPAGATING
INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS DURING THE EVENINGS.
ONE DAY OF MODEST CONCERN IS THURSDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE
GUSTS OF 25 WILL BE COMMON WITH A FEW GUSTS EVEN REACHING CLOSE TO
30 MPH. HUMIDITY WILL HAVE LOWERED CONSIDERABLY BY THIS TIME (BELOW
10% IN THE AFTERNOON). WESTERLY BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THESE
AREAS AGAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT SPEEDS WILL COME DOWN 5-10 MPH.
THE FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OPPORTUNITIES FOR SOAKING
RAINFALL WILL STILL BE RATHER ISOLATED AND SPARSE, SO RELIEF TO OUR
DRY FUELS AND HIGH ERC'S WILL BE SLOW TO COME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 98 63 98 / 10 5 10 0
DULCE........................... 51 93 51 93 / 20 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 57 92 58 92 / 30 20 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 57 93 58 94 / 20 30 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 57 86 57 89 / 20 50 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 56 91 57 93 / 20 50 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 59 89 59 90 / 30 50 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 64 89 64 91 / 10 40 20 40
DATIL........................... 58 86 59 88 / 20 60 30 20
RESERVE......................... 54 92 55 95 / 20 60 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 58 96 59 99 / 30 50 20 40
CHAMA........................... 49 84 49 85 / 30 40 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 87 63 89 / 50 40 30 30
PECOS........................... 56 89 56 92 / 40 40 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 85 54 86 / 40 30 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 78 45 79 / 40 40 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 81 41 82 / 40 50 30 20
TAOS............................ 53 88 53 90 / 40 30 20 20
MORA............................ 53 84 54 87 / 40 50 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 58 96 60 96 / 30 30 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 90 61 91 / 40 20 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 93 59 95 / 30 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 97 68 99 / 30 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 96 70 98 / 20 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 98 62 100 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 97 67 99 / 20 20 30 10
BELEN........................... 65 98 66 100 / 10 20 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 64 98 65 99 / 30 20 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 97 62 99 / 10 20 20 10
CORRALES........................ 64 98 65 100 / 30 20 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 97 63 99 / 10 20 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 94 68 96 / 30 20 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 97 67 98 / 30 20 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 71 102 / 5 20 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 90 61 92 / 30 20 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 61 91 61 93 / 30 20 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 91 59 93 / 30 20 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 93 54 95 / 30 20 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 88 57 90 / 20 30 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 91 60 93 / 20 20 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 89 61 92 / 10 20 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 92 67 95 / 10 20 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 56 85 58 87 / 5 30 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 87 53 86 / 30 40 30 70
RATON........................... 53 93 53 91 / 30 50 30 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 93 55 92 / 30 40 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 88 56 90 / 30 40 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 64 96 64 94 / 10 30 30 40
ROY............................. 61 92 60 91 / 20 40 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 66 100 66 99 / 10 30 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 96 64 96 / 5 30 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 99 69 100 / 5 10 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 66 96 67 97 / 0 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 67 98 68 99 / 0 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 98 68 99 / 5 10 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 69 99 71 101 / 0 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 64 94 65 95 / 0 20 10 30
ELK............................. 59 89 63 91 / 0 20 10 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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