166
FXUS65 KABQ 292046
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
- A LOCALIZED RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DUE TO DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS OF NEW MEXICO.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATING IN
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST CROSSWINDS WILL DEVELOP BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR
29 2026
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY AS
TIGHTENING 500MB AND 700MB PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE THE MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A WELL-MIXED
LAYER UP TO 700MB, AND WOULD LIKELY INCREASE IN HEIGHT AS THE
AFTERNOON WENT ON. THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN NM
LAST NIGHT HAS ALLOWED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
BOTH THE WESTERN WINDS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, AND THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN EASTERN NM, GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALONGSIDE THIS, A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NM/CO
BORDER. THIS FEATURE HAS THE LOW CHANCE TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LIKELY NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES TODAY REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 60S
TO LOW 80S.
THE PREVIOUS BACKDOOR FRONT/RETURN FLOW GETS A RESURGENT PUSH LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, PROVIDING AN INFLUX OF NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER FROM CLAYTON DOWN TO
CLOVIS. THIS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE BENEFICIAL TO SUPPORT THE
UPCOMING SYSTEM AND ITS DESIRE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW. BEFORE THIS, A 250MB JET STREAK WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST,
IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER. THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAY RESIDE OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM JUST
LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE
STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO.
THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO RESIDES IN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO MOVE ALONG THE
AZ/MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN AS A CLOSED LOW. IT IS
THEN FORECAST TO REACH THE BOOTHEEL OF NM AND OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN
WAVE. CONCURRENTLY, THE RESURGING MOISTURE WILL BE TRACKING
EAST/SOUTHEAST, AND CROSS-SECTIONS OF THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY SHOW
ADEQUATE OMEGA VALUES INDICATING SUFFICIENT LIFT. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES NM, THE DYNAMICS OF THE DOWNSTREAM REGION OF THE TROUGH
AND COLLOCATED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
LIFT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPSLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH SUBTLE BUT APPARENT LIFT IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS. THIS PRECIPITATION
EVENT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PEAK LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN SLOWLY TAPER
OFF THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
0.5-1.25" ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD SEE UP TO 0.5",
DECREASING THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO.
FOR SNOWFALL, SNOW LEVELS SHOULD INITIALLY BE AROUND
9,000-10,000FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUOUSLY DECREASING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO 7,000-
8,000FT. WITH THIS, THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A SECOND PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW
LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED TO BE AROUND
3-8" BETWEEN 7,500-9,500FT, WITH AMOUNTS 8-14" ABOVE 9,500FT.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE OBSERVED NEAR THE PEAKS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THIS, THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
GET UP TO 6" ACROSS THEIR HIGHER ELEVATIONS, HOWEVER THIS IS
LIKELY TO COME LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THAT SECOND PERIOD
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL. THEY WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT ISSUANCE GIVEN THE LONGER TIME
UNTIL IT OCCURS. SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD ALSO SIT AT OR BELOW
10:1 (EXCEPT ABOVE 9,500FT), WHICH IS A SIGNAL FOR A WETTER,
HEAVIER SNOW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT WET ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD AFFECT POWER LINES AND TREES.
WHILE MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW MIXES WITH PEAK
HEATING. A SECOND, LOWER CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM,
INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS THE PEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE THIRD CHANCE IS ON FRIDAY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO WESTERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS THIRD
CHANCE HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDER THROUGH THE EVENT.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, THE SURGING MOISTURE/COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH UP AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE A GUSTY GAP WIND
IN ABQ AND SANTA FE. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME UP ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
GAP WIND, AND THAT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS IS A GOOD SETUP THAT CAN SIPHON THE FRONT THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS, INCREASING THE SPEED. GUSTS UP TO 45-50MPH MAY BE
OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CANYONS, AND IT IS POSSIBLE A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (~50% CHANCE).
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH REMNANT RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN AS THERE SHOULD BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRESENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
WEAK RIDGING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM IS
LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN ON SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING,
RATHER LARGE IN SIZE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, AND MOVING TOWARDS THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW, BUT THERE IS TIMING AND EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES
(MAINLY FROM THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IT PROVIDES AND IN WHAT FORM IT
MOVES OVER THE STATE). NONETHELESS, IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION IS
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY, WHILE SOUTHERN NM LOOKS FAVORED FOR A MORE
DRY AND WINDY PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS NEAR KRTN, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BREAKING UP AS OF 1730Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY WEST WINDS PERSIST,
EXCEPT FOR EASTERN NM WHERE THEY ARE SOUTHERLY. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS
ARE LIKELY, MAINLY FROM KRTN TO KLVS, AS WELL AS KFMN AND WEST OF
KABQ. ISOLATED SMOKE MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN SOUTHERN CATRON COUNTY
AND EAST OF THAT AREA DUE TO THE HUMMINGBIRD FIRE. WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT EASTERLY IN EASTERN NM BY 03-06Z AND CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND IS LIKELY AT KABQ/KSAF
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOW PROBABILITY OF A GUST UP TO 25KTS. NEAR THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, A RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN NORTHEAST NM NEAR KCAO AND KRTN, WITH
AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AFTER 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED APR 29 2026
AFTER BRIEF, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS TO PUT A DAMPER
ON FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO
TAKE PLACE TONIGHT BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT, AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE IN THE 40-50% ACROSS EASTERN NM
THURSDAY WHILE REMAINING BELOW 15% IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM (THOUGH
WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS, SO NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS).
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FIRST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THEN SPREADING TO ALL OF EASTERN NM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-1" ARE
LIKELY IN EASTERN NM, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5" WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN (DECREASING THE FURTHER WEST YOU GO). SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SPECIFICALLY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE UP TO 14" MAY FALL MAINLY ABOVE
9,500FT, WITH 3-8" BELOW. A GUSTY GAP WIND IN ABQ EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE ONLY WIND CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM. REMNANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 70 39 67 / 0 0 5 40
DULCE........................... 25 67 29 60 / 0 10 40 90
CUBA............................ 36 67 35 56 / 0 10 60 90
GALLUP.......................... 33 69 31 64 / 0 5 10 40
EL MORRO........................ 36 66 36 59 / 0 5 20 60
GRANTS.......................... 33 71 36 61 / 0 5 30 70
QUEMADO......................... 38 68 38 64 / 0 5 20 50
MAGDALENA....................... 47 70 43 56 / 0 5 60 70
DATIL........................... 41 67 40 57 / 0 5 40 70
RESERVE......................... 36 75 36 71 / 0 10 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 41 78 40 77 / 0 10 40 40
CHAMA........................... 27 60 29 52 / 0 30 60 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 64 41 50 / 0 40 80 90
PECOS........................... 38 62 34 46 / 10 60 100 100
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 61 34 49 / 20 70 90 100
RED RIVER....................... 27 49 27 37 / 30 80 100 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 53 23 40 / 30 80 100 100
TAOS............................ 30 65 31 53 / 10 60 90 100
MORA............................ 34 57 29 42 / 20 80 100 100
ESPANOLA........................ 41 71 41 58 / 0 40 80 90
SANTA FE........................ 44 65 41 50 / 5 50 90 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 68 40 53 / 0 40 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 73 45 56 / 0 20 80 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 75 44 58 / 0 20 80 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 78 44 61 / 0 10 80 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 75 47 60 / 0 10 70 70
BELEN........................... 43 77 44 62 / 0 10 80 70
BERNALILLO...................... 48 76 45 59 / 0 20 80 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 77 42 61 / 0 10 80 70
CORRALES........................ 48 77 46 61 / 0 20 80 70
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 77 44 61 / 0 10 80 70
PLACITAS........................ 48 71 44 54 / 0 20 80 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 75 46 60 / 0 20 70 70
SOCORRO......................... 50 80 48 64 / 0 5 70 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 67 39 49 / 0 30 90 80
TIJERAS......................... 44 69 40 51 / 0 20 90 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 68 36 50 / 0 30 90 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 68 31 50 / 0 30 90 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 61 33 42 / 0 40 100 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 70 36 50 / 0 20 90 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 69 37 49 / 0 20 90 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 72 45 53 / 0 20 100 80
RUIDOSO......................... 48 65 39 46 / 0 20 100 90
CAPULIN......................... 33 46 28 39 / 50 90 100 100
RATON........................... 34 52 30 43 / 50 90 100 100
SPRINGER........................ 37 55 33 45 / 40 90 100 100
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 56 32 42 / 20 70 100 100
CLAYTON......................... 39 51 36 47 / 50 50 100 90
ROY............................. 38 52 34 43 / 40 70 100 100
CONCHAS......................... 44 62 37 49 / 20 40 100 100
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 61 36 45 / 5 40 100 100
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 62 39 49 / 20 50 100 100
CLOVIS.......................... 45 63 41 48 / 10 30 100 100
PORTALES........................ 45 64 41 49 / 5 30 90 100
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 66 39 49 / 0 30 100 100
ROSWELL......................... 53 75 47 53 / 0 20 90 100
PICACHO......................... 49 71 41 49 / 0 20 90 90
ELK............................. 47 72 39 50 / 0 20 90 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ213>215-227.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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