782
FXUS65 KABQ 190706
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
106 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD BECOMES MORE ISOLATED TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRAY ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM VIRGA SHOWERS WILL IMPACT A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHILE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER WESTERN NM, HIGHER
MOISTURE ALONGSIDE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS RESIDES THROUGH
EASTERN NM INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BRINGING A NICE
CHANGE TO THE RECENT STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE STRONG JETMAX ROUNDING AN H5 LOW HAS EJECTED OUT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS LAST NIGHT WITH A LOITERING H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT/NV
THIS MORNING. WHILE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT WAS
OBSERVED MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS BACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM BRINGING GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH TO AREAS FROM CLAYTON TO CLOVIS OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY BY MID-DAY AND AFTERNOON, STAYING BREEZY TO
WINDY ALL AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
INTO THE TUSAS AND JEMEZ MTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRAY AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD FROM THIS, IMPACTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN THE AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO SEE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE ADVERTISING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NM WHICH HAD BEEN USHERED BACK STAGE EAST TOWARD TX/OK
ADVANCE BACK WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WITH THE LOITERING H5 SHORTWAVE STILL
OVER UT AND NORTHERN AZ, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER NM
WILL AGAIN TRY TO SHARPEN A DRYLINE FEATURE SOMEWHERE N-S ALONG THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THRU
EASTERN NM. THERE IS A CLEAR DEMARCATION BETWEEN THE MOIST
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND THE
MOIST MARITIME AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW FROM
THE GULF ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FIRING UP ALONG
THIS SHARP SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS HOUR.
HOWEVER, THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EASTERN NM, AND NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF
LATITUDINAL SOLUTIONS OF HOW FAR NORTH/SOUTH THE GULF MOISTURE
REACHES INTO EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY. THIS YIELDS TWO SCENARIOS FOR
MANY AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM REGARDING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. ONE BEING THE NAM SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS THE
MORE STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTH WITH RELATIVELY LOWER
TD'S IN THE 40S WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A DRYLINE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE SECOND BEING A MORE CONVECTIVELY BULLISH
SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WHERE THE WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE GULF MOISTURE IS FURTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN NM ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRST
BEGINNING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF NM BEFORE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD TX IN THE EVENING. IN FACT, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A CONDITIONALLY MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THRU THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTTOM LINE, WEDNESDAY'S THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR
EASTERN NM BOILS DOWN TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM MORE UNSTABLE GULF
MOISTURE CAN PUSH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
OUTFLOW FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL PUSH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST TO AND THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AGAIN. DRY WESTERLIES ADVANCE BACK EAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOITERING H5 TROUGH OVER UT FINALLY GETS ESCORTED
OUT OF THE AREA AND MOVES ALONG EASTWARD OVER CO. THIS SHIFTS ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTWARD ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE FEATURE
FAVORED CLOSE TO THE TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY SEES CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THANKS TO WEAKER FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHEAST
OF A 575DM H5 LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT
BACKING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN NM FROM CO WILL ADVANCE THRU
EASTERN NM AND UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY. WITH A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FIRST. SUBSEQUENT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOOK TO INITIATE SECONDARY CONVECTION LATER IN
THE DAY AND EVENING THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WITH MOISTURE
STEADILY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT FURTHER WEST EACH
DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE MOST PART THIS
EVENING, REPLACED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BEHIND A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD FROM CO. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING THROUGH KTCC
THIS HOUR, AND WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO KSAF AND KABQ NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND 13Z TO 14Z, REACHING KROW AN HOUR OR SO EARLIER BY 11Z TO
12Z. WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM QUICKLY VEER SOUTHEASTERLY, JOINING
UP WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN BUT AT NOTABLY LESSER SPEEDS RELATIVE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM, INCLUDING AT KROW, TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONGSIDE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS VEERING SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY
THROUGH EASTERN NM, DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY THIS
MORNING WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BRIEFLY SURGES THRU THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
INTO SANTA FE AND ABQ. ANY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THIS
WILL BE QUICKLY USHERED BACK OUT BY THE INCREASING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN WHAT WAS
OBSERVED MONDAY, BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SOUTH OF THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HAS WARRANTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SIMILAR SETUP
IS FAVORED WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA, AND YET ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING
FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL
HAVE TO BE EVALUATED.
EASTERN NM SEES THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BRINGING LOWER
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY USHERED BACK EAST TOWARD TX THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER MOISTURE ADVANCES WEST EACH NIGHT, GETTING
USHERED BACK EAST TOWARD TX EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU EASTERN NM WILL FAVOR AREAS
ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 44 76 42 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 71 36 73 31 / 10 10 10 0
CUBA............................ 73 42 74 39 / 10 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 43 72 41 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 77 39 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 75 44 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 78 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 48 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 78 42 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 83 45 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 65 36 66 33 / 10 30 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 51 71 49 / 10 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 71 43 70 43 / 10 10 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 42 69 41 / 10 30 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 59 35 59 34 / 10 40 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 30 64 30 / 10 30 40 20
TAOS............................ 71 39 73 36 / 10 20 20 10
MORA............................ 67 41 66 42 / 10 30 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 79 48 79 45 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 73 49 72 47 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 55 81 54 / 10 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 82 54 83 52 / 10 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 52 84 49 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 54 84 52 / 10 10 5 0
BELEN........................... 86 50 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 83 53 83 51 / 10 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 49 85 46 / 5 5 5 0
CORRALES........................ 84 54 85 51 / 10 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 85 50 86 47 / 0 5 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 79 54 78 52 / 10 10 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 83 54 84 51 / 10 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 87 56 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 50 75 48 / 10 5 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 78 50 76 48 / 10 5 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 46 75 44 / 10 5 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 42 77 40 / 5 5 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 44 68 45 / 0 10 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 78 46 78 44 / 0 0 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 48 78 46 / 0 0 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 54 82 53 / 0 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 52 71 50 / 0 5 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 62 35 59 40 / 5 20 30 40
RATON........................... 67 41 65 42 / 5 20 30 50
SPRINGER........................ 69 41 66 43 / 0 30 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 44 64 44 / 10 30 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 66 42 61 46 / 0 20 30 50
ROY............................. 68 42 62 45 / 0 30 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 75 47 69 48 / 0 30 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 30 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 75 48 70 51 / 0 20 40 40
CLOVIS.......................... 76 50 68 52 / 0 20 40 30
PORTALES........................ 77 50 70 51 / 0 20 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 50 72 50 / 0 20 50 30
ROSWELL......................... 85 57 77 56 / 0 20 30 30
PICACHO......................... 83 51 77 50 / 0 10 30 10
ELK............................. 83 49 80 48 / 0 5 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ106.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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