714
FXUS65 KABQ 301837
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
- AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY NEAR ROSWELL SUNDAY MORNING. SLICK SPOTS ON ELEVATED
SURFACES MAY DEVELOP, INCLUDING ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, EXCEPT BRIEFLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY.
- SLIM (<20%) CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF TODAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AROUND
ROSWELL WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
A SHARP SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEND AN
ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD AND INTO EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT, FIRST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THEN SPREADING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE SATURATED LAYER AT LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THUS, FREEZING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD PREVAIL. THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP ERODE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM FIRST WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS MAY LINGER
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY (OR
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY). THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THIS AREA, AND FORECAST HIGHS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED
FURTHER. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NM, TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY NEAR
ROSWELL. OVERALL, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS TONIGHT, BUT LOW VISIBILITY AND SLICK SPOTS WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER NM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL
EXPEDITE THE WARM-UP ACROSS EASTERN NM. IN FACT, ALL BUT CONTINUED
SNOW-COVERED AREAS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO SHIFT OVER NM ON MONDAY. THIS WILL DO LITTLE
TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, THOUGH IT WILL INCREASE PASSING CLOUDS
OVER THE STATE. A BREEZY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE NOTED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NM.
ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT, COOLING HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ON THE ORDER
OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NM
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NOSE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM FOR
THIS PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL BE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. FLURRIES APPEAR MOST LIKELY.
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
REX BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 05Z SAT. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NM WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KT. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NM BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM BEFORE EXPANDING/SHIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER AROUND KROW AND PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DRY CONDITIONS (NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND RH FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY) AND POOR VENTILATION PREVAILING ACROSS
MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM, RESULTING IN
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FREEZING FOG, AND ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE SLIM, AND FAVOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 20 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 13 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 45 19 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 49 14 56 15 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 50 14 56 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 20 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 27 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 48 23 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 57 21 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 16 46 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 25 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 21 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 20 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 34 12 40 14 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 2 44 5 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 45 13 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 18 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 51 18 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 23 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 21 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 28 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 26 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 24 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 26 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 19 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 20 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 25 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 21 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 27 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 26 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 26 47 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 26 47 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 20 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 13 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 22 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 22 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 25 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 14 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 13 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 13 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 16 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 18 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 48 17 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 19 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 19 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 19 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 20 40 24 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 19 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 18 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 22 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 25 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 54 23 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
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