196
FXUS65 KABQ 201837
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1237 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY NEW SPARK THIS
AFTERNOON FROM INCREDIBLY DRY CONDITIONS AND STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THEN AGAIN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR SENSITIVE INDIVIDUALS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING
BROKEN DOWN, WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION OUT AHEAD OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TRANSITION TODAY, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES
PREVAILING AREAWIDE. MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY AIRMASS EVENTUALLY TAKES
OVER. A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH TOO IN
THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS, ALTHOUGH NEARLY NO HI-RES MODELS ARE
BEARISH ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION AT ALL.
IT WILL BE AN EXTRAORDINARILY DRY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM, WITH OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE 15% MARK.
THIS WILL HELP IT TO COOL OFF WELL, OFFERING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
PERSISTENT HEAT. SPEAKING OF HEAT, SUNDAY WILL BRING ABOUT AN
INCREASE IN TEMPS, WITH ROSWELL FORECAST TO HIT 106F. THEREFORE, A
HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS. IT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ANOTHER SUNNY JUNE DAY WITH UV INDEX LEVELS MAXING OUT THE
SCALE. SUNSCREEN IS A MUST IF PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL SEND
A BACKDOOR FRONT SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATE EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SHOWERS
INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO UNION COUNTY. THE SOMEWHAT UNIMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY (IN
TERMS OF TEMP/MOISTURE GRADIENT) WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM ON MONDAY SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE BUILDING
MONSOON HIGH TO THE SOUTH WILL ATTEMPT TO PUT A CAP ON CONVECTION.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY MID-WEEK, REACHING A
STRENGTH OF AROUND ~598 DAM, WHICH IS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. TEMPERATURES WILL TICK UP A FEW MORE DEGREES AS A
RESULT, CREATING LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
PECOS RIVER VALLEYS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE CREEPING
NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH THE HIGH MID-WEEK AS WELL, WITH INCREASING
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE 30-40F RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
DRY STORMS WILL BE A THREAT, WITH GUSTY WINDS MORE LIKELY THAN
WETTING RAINFALL. THIS CHANGES LATE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
PWATS TICK UPWARDS. WESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS IN EASTERN NM EACH DAY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HIGHER. THE MONSOON RIDGE RETREATS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL ONCE AGAIN DRY OUT
THE REGION. THIS RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
MODERATE SW TO W BREEZE WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL PREVAIL AT
MOST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z.
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR EASTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SMOKE ADVECTED EASTWARD FROM FIRES IN SE ARIZONA MAY CREATE VERY MINOR
VIS REDUCTIONS DOWN TO THE SFC IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL CREATE SEVERAL HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
WHERE FUELS ARE VERY DRY AND ERCS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT SO HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
POOR, WITH PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL NM STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE 10%.
SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY, WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AREAWIDE AND VALUES EVEN DROPPING BELOW 5% IN A FEW AREAS.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, HELPING TO MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD
RISKS.
LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TUESDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO CREATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MID NEXT WEEK. DRY STORMS WITH
STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS MAY START NEW FIRES GIVEN THE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STILL LOW SFC DEWPOINTS (30-40F). STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONGER AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE WETTING RAINFALL. STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO PEAK ON THURSDAY,
THEN TRENDS LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE DOWNTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE WILL COINCIDE WITH INCREASING WEST WINDS, LIKELY CREATING
AT LEAST LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
NM NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 93 52 95 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 89 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 88 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 89 43 91 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 86 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 91 47 93 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 89 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 54 89 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 48 95 48 96 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 98 54 99 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 83 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 44 77 43 75 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 82 36 81 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 51 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 49 88 49 84 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 58 96 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 99 60 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 61 100 60 100 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 98 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 99 58 98 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 61 99 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 99 57 98 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 62 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 68 103 66 102 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 90 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 92 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 93 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 97 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 54 89 52 80 / 0 0 10 20
RATON........................... 50 93 51 86 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 51 95 53 87 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 91 53 87 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 61 96 60 84 / 0 0 20 10
ROY............................. 57 93 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 62 101 62 91 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 97 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 102 63 91 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 65 102 62 92 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 103 62 95 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 101 64 94 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 106 67 100 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 65 99 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 61 96 60 92 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-120-
121.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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