095
FXUS65 KABQ 160527 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1027 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1025 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. NUMEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE IN
JEOPARDY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS, SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR MOST OF
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO HAVE
SLOWLY BUT SURELY BEEN DIMINISHING AND CEILINGS CONTINUE TO CLIMB.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL
CREATE SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, ABOUT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER WARM THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS LIKE TUCUMCARI AND CLAYTON APPROACHING THE 70S.
THE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION THAT BROUGHT IN THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE STATE ON TUESDAY. AS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ROUNDS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD OVER THE STATE. ONCE AGAIN, SOME BREEZY 15 KT WINDS WILL BE
COMMON. LESS CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE THREATENED, PARTICULARLY AT GALLUP, LAS VEGAS,
RATON, SANTA FE, AND ANGEL FIRE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE UPPER CONUS ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT A 170 KT UPPER LEVEL JET INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL DIG SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TOO. IN THE MID LEVELS, 700 MB
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 60 TO 70 KT RANGE OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE EVENING. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN PEAKS REACHING GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO WIND ADVISORIES ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY. CONSIDERING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOME TIME
BETWEEN 12 AM MDT AND 3 AM MDT ON THURSDAY, SURFACE INVERSIONS
WILL PREVENT SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. HOWEVER, CROSS SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG, AND SOME BRISK 20 TO 30 KT
WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE OVER PARTS OF THE
HIGHLANDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. YET AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE FOR WIND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
REMAINS LOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ON THURSDAY, WITH
FLOW ALOFT DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
PUSH DOWN A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN
AREAS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WEDNESDAY'S READINGS, BUT STILL
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A WARM BUT
PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST OF NEW MEXICO, WITH LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE.
INCREASED ZONAL FLOW AND LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING RETURNS ON
FRIDAY, WHICH BRINGS BACK TYPICAL BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 15 TO 25
KTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPING, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE NEARING RECORD
HIGHS. FOR THE MOST PART, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID DECEMBER. ALBUQUERQUE, CLAYTON, AND SANTA FE
ARE JUST SOME OF THE MAJOR LOCALES FORECAST TO BREAK RECORDS.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE EXTENSIVE NOW,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY THIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BREEZES COULD TURN
STRONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT BUILDS IN BEHIND AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LOCATIONS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WOULD BE MOST PRONE TO EXPERIENCE
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, NEW MEXICO WILL SEE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHEN GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE WARM, DRY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR AREAS ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORTUNATELY, ERCS WILL STILL BE BELOW THE 50TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD LOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZIER DAYS OF WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY, VENTILATION
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN POOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 51 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 19 53 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 23 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 58 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 19 59 21 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 23 55 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 32 60 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 65 26 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 29 70 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 51 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 54 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 30 61 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 27 53 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 50 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 54 8 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 21 57 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 30 61 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 26 60 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 30 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 58 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 62 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 26 60 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 60 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 24 60 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 29 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 25 60 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 32 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 31 59 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 63 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 54 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 32 55 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 58 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 55 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 29 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 60 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 27 64 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 24 67 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 65 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 34 67 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 66 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 69 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 68 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 69 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 69 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 69 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 73 31 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 37 69 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 35 68 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page