839
FXUS65 KABQ 040804
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
104 AM MST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1248 AM MST THU DEC 4 2025
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AROUND THE REGION. SLICK
TRAVEL IS LIKELY FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN MANY AREAS
AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- STRONG NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE AND HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MST THU DEC 4 2025
THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION ONGOING AROUND THE
AREA TONIGHT (AS OF MIDNIGHT). THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS
ALMOST ALL SNOW AND IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NM, EXTENDING FROM I-40
NORTHWARD TO RED RIVER. THIS SHOWERY SNOWFALL (MOSTLY GRAUPEL) IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD CENTER OF THE 500MB LOW, LOCATED IN WEST-
CENTRAL NM. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS CONTINUOUSLY REGENERATING.
THIS WILL GENERATE BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1",
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL IN THE MORNING. THE SANTA FE AND
LOS ALAMOS AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER 1-3" BETWEEN NOW AND
SUNRISE, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE SURROUNDING HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS,
AND THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS WHERE HI-RES MODELS ARE THE MOST
BULLISH FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIP IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SW/NE ORIENTED JET STREAK WITH MAX WINDS AROUND
130KTS. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS GENERATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW, WHICH WILL ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO 2" ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUST RECENTLY DROPPED BELOW
FREEZING ALONG I-40 BETWEEN SANTA ROSA AND THE TX BORDER. WHILE SNOW
LIKELY WON'T ACCUMULATE ON MAJOR ROADWAYS IN THIS PORTION OF THE
STATE, SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLACK ICE
FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY AIR HAS BEGUN TO PUNCH INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NM, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ALONG WITH THE EXITING JET STREAK WILL RAPIDLY
END PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AFTER SUNRISE. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AFTER SNOW ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ADDING TO THE ALREADY TRICKY TRAVEL. FOG MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS, UNTIL THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH
AND SFC HUMIDITIES DROP. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE REGION. IT WILL BE A CHILLY
EARLY WINTER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S IN MOST AREAS, WHICH
IS AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES WARM
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY, REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AREAWIDE. A LIGHT
NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHLANDS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MST THU DEC 4 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY WARMER TEMPS EACH AFTERNOON, RISING TO
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THESE WARM TEMPS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MELT MUCH OF THE FRESH SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS >9500 FEET. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NORTHWEST BREEZE IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON, WITH MINOR IMPACTS
CONFINED TO TRAVELING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A MINORITY OF ENSEMBLES (~20%) ARE
SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN JUST ENOUGH TO BRING THE JET STREAM
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR A FEW STORM SYSTEMS TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. EVEN IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE SECOND WEEK OF
DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM MST WED DEC 3 2025
WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AS A
WINTER STORM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. AREAS OF SNOW WITH
IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN WITH MT OBSCURATIONS, ICING, AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED.
LARGE AREAS OF IFR WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THRU SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SNOW WILL THEN TAPER OFF OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW
FLURRIES LINGERING ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SLOW CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW AREA OF FAR
EASTERN NM MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1248 AM MST THU DEC 4 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 7+ DAYS, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL THEY'RE WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWN AS
TEMPERATURES RISE AS WELL, WITH SUB-25% AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 45 MPH.
VENTILATION WILL BE BEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN WINDS ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, WITH WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION PREVAILING ON
ALL OTHER DAYS THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 19 39 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 10 39 9 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 36 13 38 17 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 13 45 17 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 16 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 44 13 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 14 43 19 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 22 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 41 18 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 51 16 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 20 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 8 35 11 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 18 38 23 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 18 42 20 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 13 36 17 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 9 35 12 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 3 36 11 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 34 9 36 12 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 38 14 43 17 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 41 16 44 17 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 36 21 39 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 17 39 19 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 25 43 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 21 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 47 20 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 44 22 46 24 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 46 17 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 44 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 45 17 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 45 20 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 18 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 39 23 41 26 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 22 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 23 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 18 37 23 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 18 40 25 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 15 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 14 40 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 17 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 18 42 22 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 20 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 25 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 26 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 13 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 36 13 46 15 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 39 11 45 13 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 14 43 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 20 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 34 15 44 17 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 17 49 19 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 25 47 25 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 20 51 22 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 26 54 25 / 20 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 27 55 25 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 25 53 26 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 47 23 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 25 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 22 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ203-210>212-214-216-218-222-223-228-229.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ213-215-221-227.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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