826
FXUS65 KABQ 230520 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS THROUGH LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS PEAK IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S EACH
DAY. LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN NM HAS ALREADY
MIXED OUT SO TEMPERATURES ARE RISING AND THE HUMIDITY IS DROPPING
RAPIDLY. THE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
FROM LAST NIGHT WAS MORE PRONOUNCED. THERE IS STILL A CONDITIONAL
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY
TODAY. ALMOST ALL HI-RES MODELS (EXCEPT FOR THE FV3) ARE SHOWING NO
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NEW MEXICO, BUT THERE IS A CU FIELD THAT
HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE JOHNSON AND BARTLET MESAS,
INDICATING A LOCALIZED INSTABILITY MAXIMA. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ON THE OFF CHANCE THAT A STORM OR
TWO DOES DEVELOP.
THE MONSOON RIDGE CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK NORTHWARD TUESDAY, LIKELY
REACHING ITS MAX STRENGTH (~598MB) OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE
AND A SLEW OF HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NM, INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE AND ROSWELL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN CLIMB INTO THE MID-90S IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS,
INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO AND SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL CREEP NORTHWARD INTO
ARIZONA AND FAR WESTERN NM TUESDAY. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
RIDGE, THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND A FEW DRY STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE HUMIDITIES WILL BE SUB-
15% WITHIN THE DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SO VERY LITTLE, IF
ANY OF THIS RAIN WILL REACH THE GROUND. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH IS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IF THERE
ARE FRESH FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A
CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN FAR NORTHEAST NM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CREATED FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS OFF TO THE NORTH
OVER SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN NM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO, WITH MAJOR HEAT RISK CONFINED
TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING SOCORRO. MOISTURE WILL
WRAP AROUND THE MONSOON RIDGE, BLANKETING MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE PWATS WILL BE TRENDING UPWARDS, THE
MOISTURE WILL STILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER SO ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY
AND ANY PASSING SHOWER COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO EVEN DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
OVER NORTHEAST NM WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THAT SFC HEATING WILL BE DRIVING MOST OF THE
CONVECTION, STORMS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET.
THURSDAY WILL BE AN EVEN MORE ACTIVE DAY WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE CONTINUED ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE AND LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT HIGHER INSTABILITY
AND THEREFORE HIGHER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THAT DESPERATELY NEED IT.
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND DEEPER. THIS WILL KEEP A BIT OF
LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND INTO FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT IT ALSO MEANS THAT WINDS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE STATE COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TAKE CENTER
STAGE ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH LITTLE RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, GEFS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH
AS A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DEPTH
OF THIS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS A QUESTION MARK GIVEN
ITS SUB-OPTIMAL TRAJECTORY, BUT NONETHELESS WILL BE A WELCOMED SIGN
AFTER THE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM WHERE MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE STATE. IF THESE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP, THEY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY 16-17Z TUE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUE
AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST OF KROW, AND A FEW SPRINKLES MAY IMPACT THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BUT STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
VERY DRY AND HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THE MONSOON
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS WEEK, REACHING
ITS PEAK INTENSITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM. MOISTURE
WILL BE ADVECTED AROUND THE MONSOON HIGH, REACHING FAR WESTERN NM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY GENERATING A FEW HIGH BASED GUSTY
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED DRY STORM OR TWO. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, CREATING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DRY STORMS WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IN
WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE LIFTED INDICES (LIS) OF -1 TO
-3C WILL OVERLAP WITH SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 45 TO 55F. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FROM EVEN PASSING VIRGA SHOWERS COULD
CREATE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS THAT CREATE BRIEFLY DANGEROUS FIRE
BEHAVIOR FROM BOTH NEW AND EXISTING FIRES. STORM COVERAGE PEAKS ON
THURSDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL FOR MOST
LOCALES SINCE PWATS WILL RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH. A
FIRE GROWING PATTERN RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
DRAPES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN GIVEN THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND VERY DRY
FUELS (ERCS > 97TH PERCENTILE). ANY MEAGER RAINFALL MID-WEEK WILL
NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FUEL STATUS. FURTHERMORE, ANY NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING COULD SPREAD DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
MOISTURE WILL MAY BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 44 92 49 89 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 53 92 58 89 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 48 94 56 92 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 52 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 51 95 56 93 / 0 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 54 92 58 91 / 0 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 63 95 66 92 / 0 0 5 20
DATIL........................... 58 92 60 90 / 0 0 10 20
RESERVE......................... 51 96 54 97 / 0 10 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 57 101 60 102 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 45 86 48 83 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 53 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 88 54 85 / 0 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 79 46 76 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 83 41 81 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 50 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 50 89 53 86 / 0 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 56 98 60 95 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 58 93 62 91 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 96 59 94 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 101 65 100 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 99 66 98 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 59 103 64 102 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 100 65 99 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 101 63 100 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 61 100 66 99 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 102 63 101 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 63 97 67 96 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 69 104 73 103 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 97 57 96 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 93 58 91 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 95 62 95 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 99 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 60 90 62 89 / 0 0 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 92 54 83 / 10 0 20 50
RATON........................... 53 96 54 89 / 5 0 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 54 98 56 90 / 5 0 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 93 57 89 / 0 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 60 97 60 86 / 10 5 20 20
ROY............................. 58 95 59 87 / 0 0 10 30
CONCHAS......................... 63 104 64 95 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 102 64 95 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 104 67 95 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 65 101 66 97 / 0 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 65 102 67 99 / 0 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 103 67 98 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 68 105 70 104 / 0 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 63 99 65 97 / 0 20 0 20
ELK............................. 60 95 63 94 / 0 10 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ207-219>221-
225-226-238>240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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