195
FXUS65 KABQ 271904
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
104 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FAVOR AREAS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE 597DM H5 MONSOON HIGH REMAINS CENTERED MIDWAY ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER TODAY RESULTING IN A DAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
WEDNESDAY WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALREADY
BEGINNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS HOUR. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL FAVOR A SLOW AND STEADY MOTION TOWARD
THE SE/ESE OUT AND OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY AND
EVENING. THE MORE N-S STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT TOWARD THE TX BORDER
RELATIVE TO WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY LOWER SBCAPE IN THE REALM OF 750-
1250 J/KG OVER THE HIGHLANDS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PULSE
SEVERE STORMS HERE AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS, MODEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
20-30KTS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO THREATEN SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S.
STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTS NEAR THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS HAVE AND
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY STAY SOUTH OF OTERO COUNTY LINE. ALTHOUGH NEW
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS LOOK TO CREEP NORTHWARD THRU THE DAY, INDIVIDUAL
CELLS THEMSELVES WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY MOTION. ELSEWHERE,
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM SOUTHWARD WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH SHORT LIFESPANS AND ISOLATED WETTING FOOTPRINTS. MUCH
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS HERE HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
40-50+ TD DEPRESSIONS WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EMANATING FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS.
ABUNDANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF BROKEN STRATUS AND
CIRRUS WILL LIKELY OBSCURE TONIGHT'S LUNAR ECLIPSE. MUCH OF THIS
WILL CLEAR THRU THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO FRIDAY MORNING
HOWEVER. ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE MORENO VALLEY BY ANGEL
FIRE IS ALSO LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. OTHERWISE, A CALM FRIDAY MORNING
WEATHER WISE WILL YIELD TO ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN. THE CENTROID OF THE H5 MONSOON HIGH SLIDES A BIT
EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NM, SLOWING STORM MOTIONS AREAWIDE. WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL WITH OVERALL SHORT STORM LIFESPANS. A
MODERATE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER RUIDOSO
HOWEVER GIVEN THE SLOW STORM TRACK AND FAVORABILITY FOR A STORM TO
DEVELOP DIRECTLY OVER THE SCARS THERE. SHORT STORM LIFESPANS WILL
LIMIT THE HIGHER END RAINFALL POTENTIAL HERE, THUS AT THIS TIME
PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH. WIDESPREAD STRONG AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
PWATS CLIMB TO THE 1.00" MARK SATURDAY ON THEIR WAY HIGHER TO 1.10"
TO 1.20" BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THANKS TO THE MONSOON HIGH SLIDING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE TX BORDER BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FOCUSED THRU EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THIS PLUME ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NM SATURDAY THRU AT LEAST MONDAY. ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE LIMITED BY STORM
MOTIONS BEING JUST FAST ENOUGH, BUT FAVORING AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION REPEATEDLY. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION ZONE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON FINDING ITS WAY EASTWARD FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ONE
AREA OF LOWER FORECAST CERTAINTY WILL BE SUNDAY'S CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD COVER PERSISTING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIMIT AND DELAY
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO BEGIN. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO LOWER THRU WESTERN NM, STAYING HOT
NEAR THE 100F MARK FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN NM B/W 18Z AND 20Z.
STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL FAVOR A S/SE MOTION
WHILE STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ANYWHERE.
LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE STRONGER STORMS
MOVING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS ELSEWHERE THRU CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. CONDITIONS CALM
THRU THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. FOG THAT DEVELOPED
WITHIN THE MORENO VALLEY AT KAXX IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH VARYING
FLAVORS OF BEHAVIOR. TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SHORT-LIVED
STORMS THREATENING MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WHILE STORMS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE WETTING MOVING S/SE OVER
THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. SATURDAY THRU MONDAY WILL SEE A MONSOONAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE SWITCH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MORE
MORE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NM, PUSHING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS
WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 96 67 92 / 0 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 48 93 51 90 / 5 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 58 91 60 89 / 10 0 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 58 92 59 89 / 5 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 57 85 / 5 10 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 59 91 60 89 / 5 10 20 60
QUEMADO......................... 59 89 60 86 / 10 30 40 60
MAGDALENA....................... 63 89 64 87 / 10 20 20 50
DATIL........................... 59 86 59 84 / 10 30 30 50
RESERVE......................... 59 95 58 93 / 10 40 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 65 100 64 98 / 20 30 50 20
CHAMA........................... 51 86 54 84 / 5 0 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 87 64 87 / 30 20 20 30
PECOS........................... 56 89 59 89 / 20 10 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 86 57 86 / 30 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 46 77 49 77 / 30 10 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 83 43 83 / 30 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 53 90 56 89 / 10 10 20 10
MORA............................ 51 86 55 86 / 30 20 10 50
ESPANOLA........................ 60 94 63 94 / 20 5 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 89 64 89 / 20 5 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 92 62 92 / 20 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 97 70 97 / 20 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 97 68 96 / 20 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 99 67 98 / 10 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 97 70 97 / 20 5 20 20
BELEN........................... 65 98 66 98 / 10 5 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 66 99 69 98 / 20 5 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 99 66 98 / 10 5 20 10
CORRALES........................ 67 99 70 99 / 20 5 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 98 67 97 / 10 5 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 66 95 68 94 / 20 5 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 69 97 / 20 5 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 70 99 / 10 0 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 91 63 90 / 20 10 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 62 91 65 91 / 20 10 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 93 60 92 / 20 20 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 94 58 94 / 20 20 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 89 61 89 / 30 20 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 92 61 92 / 20 20 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 90 61 90 / 20 30 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 93 66 93 / 30 20 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 85 59 85 / 40 60 10 50
CAPULIN......................... 56 86 59 89 / 30 20 10 10
RATON........................... 52 89 55 91 / 30 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 54 92 56 94 / 30 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 88 57 90 / 40 20 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 63 93 69 97 / 30 0 5 0
ROY............................. 58 90 62 93 / 30 20 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 65 99 69 101 / 30 5 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 94 66 96 / 40 10 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 98 70 100 / 20 0 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 97 69 100 / 20 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 65 97 69 100 / 20 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 98 70 100 / 40 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 100 72 101 / 30 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 62 95 64 96 / 20 30 5 20
ELK............................. 59 92 61 93 / 20 40 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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