066
FXUS65 KABQ 180730
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
130 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE MOST
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL IMPACT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
A STOUT 100-110KT H3 JETMAX, SAMPLED BY THE RENO WFO ON THE PRIOR
00Z SOUNDING, CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER AREA 51
NORTHWEST OF LAS VEGAS, NV THIS HOUR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER AZ/NM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
H5 LOW CLOSING OFF AND DEEPENING OVER NV/UT THIS MORNING. MOST OF
THESE WINDS REMAIN ALOFT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BUT HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE UP AND DOWN IN ALTITUDE, AT TIMES REACHING THE
SURFACE IN ERRATIC FASHION. THE ABQ SUNPORT HAS SEEN SOME OF THESE
ERRATIC WIND SPEEDS ALREADY TONIGHT AT TIMES GUSTING TO 30 MPH
BEFORE SUBSIDING AGAIN. A DAY OF STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH,
PEAKING IN STRENGTH TO 50 TO 55 MPH ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS REMAINS ON TRACK. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN JETMAX AND VORTLOBE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN NM BY 12PM MDT TODAY BEFORE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS TIMING JUST MISSES PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING TO
FULLY REALIZE THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL. AS SUCH, WHILE IT WON'T BE
SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW GUSTS REACH HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF > 58MPH
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND PERHAPS A
STRAY SPOT ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO FULLY UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. WIND ADVISORIES WERE INSTEAD HOISTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE FROM TAOS AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO'S EASTWARD AND FROM I-40 NORTHWARD. HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST THREATENING LOW
VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BARELY SKIRT THE FAR
NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE ALONG THE CO BORDER.
WIND SPEEDS QUICKLY TAPER OFF PAST SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW OPENS AND QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION. LEFT IN
ITS WAKE WILL BE A POTENT COLD FRONT BACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT, AIDED BY A QUICK
3HR 9-12MB INCREASE IN MSLP. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR ANY FIRE
SUPPRESSION ACTIVITIES OVER EASTERN NM GIVEN THE INITIAL SUDDEN WIND
SHIFT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY OVER
EASTERN NM. DRIER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE HIGHLANDS, HAVING NEVER LEFT WESTERN NM AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER SPEED
RELATIVE TO MONDAY. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM IF ANY WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DRY DAY FOR MANY
ASIDE FROM THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY OVER EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH A TRICKY METEOROLOGICAL FORECAST
OVER EASTERN NM. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT BACKS THROUGH
EASTERN NM TUESDAY WILL SEE WINDS VEER SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN
NM. THE QUESTION HOWEVER IS WHETHER OR NOT RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY, OR IF THE SUBTLY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S HOLDS ON? THE
WARMER AND HIGHER MOISTURE GFS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND CHANCES FOR SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MORE STABLE NAM SOLUTION WOULD LIKELY FAVOR A BLANKET
OF LOW STRATUS LOITERING OVER EASTERN NM MUCH OF THE DAY SUPPRESSING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE
(DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN SOLUTION) WAS CHOSEN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WHERE THE BOUNDARY B/W THE HIGHER MOISTURE GULF RETURN FLOW
AND CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS FADED SOMEWHERE THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL NM
WITH SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION FAVORED ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE
HIGHLANDS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
WHILE WESTERN NM STAYS HIGH AND DRY, EASTERN NM WILL SEE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ATTEMPT TO PUSH WESTWARD AGAIN INTO PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOW MUCH WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES OCCURRING FROM ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NM
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NM
THURSDAY. MODEST WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TREKKING EASTWARD OVER WY/CO WILL SHUNT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
EAST INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY. THIS SHUTS DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM EXCEPT THE FURTHEST
NORTHEASTERN CORNER IN UNION COUNTY. A SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT
BACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NM NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RETURN THE TWO-FACED PATTERN OF WEATHER OVER NM
WITH WESTERN AREAS REMAINING HIGH AND DRY WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
ALONGSIDE DECREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
LLWS THRU THE NIGHT. THIS WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AROUND DAWN AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS WILL COMMONLY
REACH 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE REGION WITH THE WEAKEST WIND SPEEDS
RELEGATED TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NM NEAR KFMN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 KTS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTS. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST COULD ALSO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AT SOME DUST PRONE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING AT KABQ AND KROW. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTS
REACHING OR JUST SURPASSING 35KTS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR KABQ AS WELL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN EARNEST PAST 00Z
MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN EARNEST THIS MORNING
GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS REACHING 50 TO 55+ MPH ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MODERATELY
WEAKER WESTERLIES IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NM WHERE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
MAY SKIRT THE CO BORDER. OTHERWISE, THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
WIDESPREAD HUMIDITY FALLING TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH 6 TO 11 HOURS
OF SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
COINCIDE WITH THE LOWEST SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NM.
WINDS QUICKLY RETREAT FROM THEIR PEAK SPEEDS THIS EVENING WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN NM WHERE GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BEHIND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THIS
SUDDEN WIND SHIFT WILL BE A MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY ONGOING SUPPRESSION
ACTIVITIES THROUGH EASTERN NM. OTHERWISE, THE GOOD NEWS IS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BETTER RECOVERIES HEADING INTO TUESDAY ONCE WINDS
CALM. BREEZY TO AT TIMES WINDY SOUTHWESTERLIES RETURN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, PUSHING BACK THIS MOISTURE TOWARD TX AND CO AND PRODUCING
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FROM SOCORRO TO ABQ.
A STRONGER WESTWARD PUSH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES A DRY LINE
WESTWARD TO OR THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE A DICHOTOMY OF DRY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN NM EACH DAY WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CENTRAL PORTIONS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE IN FLUX
WITH LIKELY GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH DRYING CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. FRIDAY SEES DRIER WESTERLIES PUNCH EASTWARD TOWARD
THE TX LINE BEFORE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO EASTERN NM
NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 39 75 43 / 20 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 30 73 37 / 50 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 67 37 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 68 34 74 36 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 66 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 72 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 71 42 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 37 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 80 41 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 57 31 67 37 / 60 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 46 70 51 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 73 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 38 70 43 / 0 0 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 54 32 61 35 / 0 0 5 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 26 63 31 / 0 0 10 40
TAOS............................ 68 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 69 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 30
ESPANOLA........................ 77 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 72 45 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 43 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 53 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 49 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 86 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 80 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 83 46 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 81 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 46 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 77 50 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 88 53 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 76 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 44 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 40 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 78 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 48 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 30 63 37 / 0 5 0 40
RATON........................... 76 35 68 40 / 0 0 0 40
SPRINGER........................ 78 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 40
CLAYTON......................... 83 38 68 42 / 0 0 0 40
ROY............................. 78 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 40
CONCHAS......................... 88 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 40
CLOVIS.......................... 89 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 91 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 88 47 82 50 / 0 0 0 40
ROSWELL......................... 92 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 20
PICACHO......................... 83 51 84 51 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 80 49 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ104-106-109-121>126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ210-212>216-223-227>234.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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