505
FXUS65 KABQ 161211 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
511 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 509 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON EAST TO WEST ROADWAYS THIS MORNING ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MID
WEEK, WHILE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 509 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
WINDS SPEEDS ARE DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40. THEREFORE, HAVE CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THROUGH 8AM MST.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING. IT HAS BEEN
BARRELING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS WITH GUSTS
WELL OVER 60 MPH. A LINE OF DUST HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THOUGH OBSERVATIONS HAVE ONLY SHOWN VISIBILITIES DROPPING
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES FOR A SHORT TIME. NONETHELESS, THIS FRONT IS
ABOUT TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM AND WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NM AND ALONG THE TX BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH LIKELY. BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
CO, THERE IS SOME CONCERN OF A BRIEF HIGH WIND GUST, PARTICULARLY
AROUND KCAO EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, THEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THE WIND,
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, OR ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES
COLDER THAN YESTERDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS WESTERN NM, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER. ADDITIONALLY, A 30KT
OR SO MID LEVEL JET WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM KFMN TO KABQ TO KROW. THOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ONLY AROUND
3-4KFT, A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NM. WEAK MIXING COMBINED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NM, THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THOUGH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NM AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER
WEST TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN
NM WILL ALSO DROP UP TO 5 DEGREES AS H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON SATURDAY
MORNING AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM SATURDAY AFTN. MODELS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT A RIBBON OF SNOW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY MORNING. CAMS ARE NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL, LIKELY OWING TO THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, BUT
SOME LOW END POPS (<=15%) HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK UPWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NM (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, ACROSS WESTERN NM). A WEAK LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING WESTERLY
BREEZES TO RETURN. DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
AROUND 20 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS. IN OTHER WORDS,
SATURDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE WARMEST ACROSS EASTERN NM. WESTERN
NM'S WARMUP WILL ONLY BE UP TO 8 DEGREES OR SO.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THE FRONT MAY OOZE INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN DROP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN NM ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE WESTERN NM WILL BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE'RE SEEING WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNING
OVER NM BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TEMP FORECAST DROP
A BIT FROM CURRENT PROJECTIONS. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS
MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45KT ARE COMMON
ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z BEFORE DECREASING AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. ACROSS
WESTERN NM, NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS OVERHEAD. ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, CIGS
WILL LOWER THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN VFR. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT, BRINGING
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. A FEW FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR FAR NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN NM AS A POTENT COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PLAINS. GUSTS NEAR 50 TO 55 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE EAST, BUT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NM THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN NM EARLY SATURDAY, THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ON SUNDAY WILL YO-YO TEMPERATURES BACK
UPWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT ANOTHER FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY WILL DROP TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. YET ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM ON SATURDAY MORNING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PERIODS OF POOR VENTILATION. GREATEST VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 24 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 11 45 12 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 19 44 17 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 16 47 13 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 21 45 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 17 49 13 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 20 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 28 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 24 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 20 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 11 39 14 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 23 40 23 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 17 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 16 36 19 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 34 11 28 15 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 5 33 6 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 46 10 40 10 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 49 14 40 19 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 17 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 22 41 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 21 44 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 30 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 25 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 28 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 57 20 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 57 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 21 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 26 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 22 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 29 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 27 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 26 43 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 27 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 22 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 16 46 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 18 38 19 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 22 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 21 47 22 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 27 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 9 29 12 / 0 10 5 0
RATON........................... 44 10 34 11 / 0 10 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 47 12 37 11 / 0 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 14 39 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 17 33 20 / 0 20 10 0
ROY............................. 43 15 35 16 / 0 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 18 42 17 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 19 40 19 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 18 41 18 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 48 19 40 19 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 49 19 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 19 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 22 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 22 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 54 22 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ235-236.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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