402
FXUS65 KABQ 270718
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
118 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A POTENT LATE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO NM AND A DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND DEEP LAYER MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SAT/SUN AND A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NM. AN
ADDITIONAL ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY. A LITTLE WARMING
IS FORECAST AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE A MODERATE
HEAT RISK MAY IMPACT MORE SENSITIVE GROUPS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A FEW VIRGA
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM WHERE STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE LATEST CAMS ARE HITTING ROSWELL BETWEEN 20-22Z,
ALTHOUGH WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A SECOND UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW
AND LOWER GREAT BASIN MON/TUE, KEEPING STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING MORE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. GULF MOISTURE WILL TREND UP ACROSS EASTERN NM
MON/TUE IN THIS REGIME, INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY BY TUESDAY TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE JET STREAM WILL RETREAT FURTHER NORTH FROM MID
TO LATE WEEK AND THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE 00Z
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON IT'S PLACEMENT BEYOND WEDESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT WINDS WILL TREND DOWN
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST OF
THE JET STREAM RETREATING NORTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR POTENTIAL SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR KROW THROUGH 07Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING SATURDAY, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35KTS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE
FOR SPEEDS TO REACH AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA AT KABQ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
A POTENT LATE SEASON UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO NM THIS WEEKEND, INCLUDING A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SUNDAY BEING THE MORE
CRITICAL DAY DUE TO CONTINUED DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PRECEDING POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERY. LARGE FIRE GROWTH IS
LIKELY GIVEN ONGOING WILDFIRES AND A NUMBER OF NEW IGNITIONS FROM
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A SECOND UPPER
LOW SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND LOWER GREAT BASIN ON
MON/TUE WILL KEEP STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS
NM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HUMIDITY WILL
TREND UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEEK, BUT
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE TRENDING DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MODEL CYCLES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL TREND DOWN LATE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MONSOON HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 58 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 46 87 45 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 86 53 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 52 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 53 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 88 53 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 86 55 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 88 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 84 56 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 90 52 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 95 56 94 53 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 79 46 80 44 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 62 86 61 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 87 57 87 55 / 10 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 54 83 53 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 45 75 43 / 10 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 42 78 40 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 85 53 85 52 / 10 0 0 5
MORA............................ 83 54 84 52 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 92 58 93 57 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 87 60 88 59 / 10 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 58 91 57 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 64 95 64 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 65 94 65 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 60 97 59 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 63 95 63 / 10 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 96 61 97 60 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 95 63 96 62 / 10 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 59 96 58 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 96 63 96 62 / 10 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 60 96 59 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 91 65 92 64 / 10 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 94 63 95 63 / 5 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 99 67 99 66 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 60 88 59 / 10 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 89 61 89 60 / 10 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 59 90 58 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 56 91 54 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 58 87 57 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 59 90 57 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 60 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 67 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 87 60 86 58 / 0 0 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 86 55 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 90 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 92 58 93 56 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 60 88 58 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 96 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 91 62 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 99 67 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 66 95 66 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 70 100 70 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 98 69 98 69 / 10 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 100 70 100 69 / 20 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 68 99 68 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 102 70 103 71 / 10 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 96 66 96 66 / 10 0 10 0
ELK............................. 93 64 92 63 / 5 0 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-109-120-121-123-125.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ101-104-
105-109-120-121-123-125.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ202-205-210-216.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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