300  
FXUS65 KABQ 070911  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
311 AM MDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO  
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND AGAIN  
FRIDAY. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST  
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN  
AT LEAST SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING THE  
SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE  
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY TO MID JULY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
 
 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME  
ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE, WITH A  
DRYSLOT MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM BEHIND  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS OF CO. THIS DRY AIRMASS  
WILL SHUTDOWN CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NM TODAY, WITH THE  
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST SHOT AT  
STORMS. THE SPC DAY1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK INCLUDES THE NORTHEAST  
PLAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A  
BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY, NOTABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE  
COLUMN AND MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE MID  
50S TO LOW 60S. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE WARMER AS THE UPPER HIGH  
BUILDS UP OVER THE AREA TO NEAR 594DAM AT 500MB. CONVECTION WILL  
FOLLOW A FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS EVENING, WITH A  
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE ROUND FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO OVER  
NORTHWEST NM AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 598DAM AT 500MB.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY  
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN  
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH  
CIRCULATION WILL BE MET BY SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PROVIDING  
SUFFICIENT SHEAR. ELSEWHERE, AIRMASS STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE SHORT-  
LIVED UPDRAFTS AND PRODUCE A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF SOAKING RAINFALL.  
 
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...  
WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS AGREE THAT THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BE  
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORECAST SOUTH OF I-40 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NM BUT  
WITH A MODERATE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE, THEY WILL LIKELY BE  
RATHER SHORT-LIVED. GFS, ECWMF AND NBM AGREE THAT THE MONSOON HIGH  
WEAKENS SOMEWHAT BY SUNDAY AND WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRINGING IN MORE  
MOISTURE, SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS  
FORECAST TO BREAK OUT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS  
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS  
AGREE THAT THE MONSOON HIGH WILL LIKELY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN  
AZ/SOUTHERN UT AND WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE EACH  
DAY, ACTIVE TO VERY ACTIVE DAYS ARE FORECAST. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO  
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 15-20 MPH ALL THREE DAYS. STEERING  
FLOW ALOFT IS SUGGESTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO  
IMPACT THE ABQ METRO, EAST MOUNTAIN AREA AS WELL AS VALENCIA COUNTY  
AS STORM OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS OVER THE JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE  
CRISTO MOUNTAINS COLLIDE TO DEVELOP NEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE MID  
RGV.  
 
11/33  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM  
TODAY, WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS FOCUSED FROM THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY TO NEAR 601DAM AT 500MB AND CENTER  
OVER SOUTHERN CO OR NORTHWEST NM. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THE  
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH AND WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL  
AREAWIDE BY SUN/MON. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL RETURN TO AREA  
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER HIGH  
CENTER IS THEN FORECAST TO BACK-OFF TO OVER UT GOING FROM EARLY TO  
MID WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR FRONT TO WORK WEST ACROSS THE  
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR MORE PRODUCTIVE ROUNDS OF WETTING  
STORMS.  
 
11  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT AT KTCC OVERNIGHT.  
ISO/SCT STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY IMPACT KTCC, KROW AND  
KLVS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST  
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 92 55 95 62 / 0 0 0 0  
DULCE........................... 85 50 89 51 / 10 0 5 5  
CUBA............................ 85 55 88 59 / 0 0 5 5  
GALLUP.......................... 88 45 92 58 / 0 0 5 0  
EL MORRO........................ 84 47 89 59 / 5 0 5 5  
GRANTS.......................... 87 46 91 58 / 0 0 5 5  
QUEMADO......................... 85 52 89 60 / 0 0 5 10  
MAGDALENA....................... 86 61 89 63 / 10 5 20 10  
DATIL........................... 84 54 87 60 / 10 0 10 10  
RESERVE......................... 90 55 92 59 / 5 5 10 10  
GLENWOOD........................ 93 62 95 68 / 5 5 10 10  
CHAMA........................... 79 48 83 50 / 20 5 10 5  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 61 86 61 / 5 5 10 10  
PECOS........................... 86 59 86 58 / 20 10 20 20  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 48 83 49 / 10 10 20 10  
RED RIVER....................... 75 46 76 47 / 20 20 30 20  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 40 77 43 / 20 20 30 20  
TAOS............................ 85 51 87 55 / 10 10 20 10  
MORA............................ 82 54 82 54 / 20 10 40 20  
ESPANOLA........................ 90 59 92 61 / 5 5 10 10  
SANTA FE........................ 86 61 87 62 / 5 5 20 20  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 58 90 61 / 5 5 10 10  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 69 93 68 / 5 5 10 10  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 67 94 67 / 0 0 10 10  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 62 97 64 / 0 0 5 5  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 66 95 68 / 0 0 5 5  
BELEN........................... 95 64 97 65 / 0 0 10 10  
BERNALILLO...................... 94 64 96 66 / 0 0 5 5  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 58 97 63 / 0 0 5 10  
CORRALES........................ 94 65 96 66 / 0 0 5 5  
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 60 97 65 / 0 0 5 10  
PLACITAS........................ 91 65 93 65 / 5 5 10 10  
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 66 95 67 / 0 0 5 5  
SOCORRO......................... 95 67 97 68 / 5 5 10 10  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 61 88 63 / 10 5 10 10  
TIJERAS......................... 89 62 90 61 / 10 5 10 10  
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 60 90 58 / 10 5 10 10  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 55 90 57 / 10 5 10 10  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 58 87 58 / 20 10 30 20  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 60 89 59 / 20 5 20 10  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 61 89 60 / 20 10 20 20  
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 65 90 65 / 30 10 20 20  
RUIDOSO......................... 80 58 80 59 / 40 20 40 20  
CAPULIN......................... 83 57 83 57 / 30 30 50 20  
RATON........................... 88 57 88 57 / 30 20 40 20  
SPRINGER........................ 90 58 89 59 / 20 20 40 20  
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 57 85 57 / 20 20 30 20  
CLAYTON......................... 90 64 91 63 / 40 30 40 30  
ROY............................. 89 62 89 61 / 20 20 40 30  
CONCHAS......................... 97 68 97 68 / 20 20 30 30  
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 66 95 66 / 20 20 30 30  
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 69 99 68 / 20 30 30 30  
CLOVIS.......................... 95 67 94 67 / 20 30 30 30  
PORTALES........................ 97 69 95 68 / 30 30 30 30  
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 70 97 70 / 20 30 30 30  
ROSWELL......................... 100 72 99 73 / 20 20 30 20  
PICACHO......................... 91 65 91 65 / 40 20 30 20  
ELK............................. 86 62 86 63 / 50 20 30 20  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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