375
FXUS65 KABQ 241937
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
137 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE 7-DAY PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH THE 7-DAY PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS
SHOWED THE MONSOON HIGH CENTERED NEAR GALLUP TODAY WITH A RICH PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM. A LARGE WEDGE OF UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE BIG BEND. STRONG HEATING, RICH MOISTURE, AND OROGRAPHICS
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN TODAY THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS ON STORM
OUTFLOWS. 12Z MODELS CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHEAST NM ROUNDING THE H5 HIGH CENTER THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
MODELS FOCUS ROBUST CONVECTION TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AND HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHWARD
AROUND THE MONSOON HIGH. THE UPDATED SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK TODAY
SHOWS A 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA OVER EASTERN NM WHERE BULK SHEAR HAS
IMPROVED. THE RRFS, HRRR, AND NAM12 ROTATE A REMNANT MCV FEATURE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY TO
PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER CENTRAL NM.
THE FOCUS FOR ROBUST STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES SATURDAY WILL
DEPEND PARTLY ON WHERE THE REMNANT MCV IS POSITIONED IN THE MORNING.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WAVE WILL BE NEAR
GRANTS WITH A TRAJECTORY WESTWARD TOWARD ALREADY SATURATED AREAS OF
WESTERN NM. HI-RES ENSEMBLE LPMM QPF AND NBM90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS A
FEW CLUSTERS WITH >1.5" OVER WESTERN NM, INCLUDING THE WESTERN PARTS
OF LINCOLN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE BURN SCAR FLOOD RISK, FLOOD WATCHES WILL
BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. WPC ALSO SHOWS A LARGE 'SLIGHT RISK' OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A TARGET AREA BETWEEN GALLUP, GRANTS, AND
THE GILA REGION. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER SATURDAY
AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COMPARED TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE MONSOON HIGH WILL EXPAND TO NEAR 598DM AND
BECOME CENTERED MORE OVER NORTHEAST NM AND WEST TX. THIS WILL DRIVE
THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. STEERING FLOW WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST/NORTHWEST WITH LESS CONVECTION EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S FOR PARTS OF THE RGV AND EASTERN NM SO ADDITIONAL
HEAT RISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE TYPICAL OF LATE JULY WITH THE MONSOON
HIGH CENTER DRIFTING WEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BENEATH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO
NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU THIS
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW GUSTS >35KT,
MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CENTRAL NM IN THE VCNTY OF KABQ,
KAEG, AND KGNT THRU LATE THIS EVENING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SEES PARTIAL CLEARING THRU SUNRISE SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
TWO WEEKS. WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM ARE MOISTENING UP,
PATCHY DRY FUELS MAY STILL LEAD TO NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO NEARBY
LOWLANDS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. SMALL FOOTPRINTS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-2" WILL OCCUR WITH DIRECT HITS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 98 68 97 / 5 5 30 20
DULCE........................... 54 95 54 94 / 20 50 20 60
CUBA............................ 61 90 60 90 / 30 30 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 61 90 59 90 / 10 60 30 50
EL MORRO........................ 61 86 58 86 / 10 70 40 70
GRANTS.......................... 63 90 61 91 / 10 50 40 60
QUEMADO......................... 62 87 59 86 / 20 70 40 70
MAGDALENA....................... 67 89 66 89 / 30 40 40 50
DATIL........................... 63 85 62 85 / 30 60 30 70
RESERVE......................... 61 94 59 93 / 30 70 40 70
GLENWOOD........................ 65 98 62 97 / 20 60 40 50
CHAMA........................... 53 86 54 86 / 20 60 20 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 89 66 90 / 40 40 20 30
PECOS........................... 60 89 59 90 / 30 60 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 87 60 88 / 20 50 10 40
RED RIVER....................... 50 84 52 85 / 10 50 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 83 50 85 / 20 50 20 50
TAOS............................ 57 91 58 91 / 20 40 10 30
MORA............................ 57 86 57 89 / 20 50 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 66 96 66 97 / 30 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 66 90 66 90 / 30 50 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 93 63 93 / 30 40 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 96 70 97 / 40 40 50 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 97 68 98 / 40 30 50 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 99 67 100 / 30 30 50 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 98 70 98 / 30 30 40 5
BELEN........................... 68 99 66 99 / 40 30 50 5
BERNALILLO...................... 69 98 69 99 / 30 30 30 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 98 65 98 / 40 30 50 5
CORRALES........................ 70 99 69 100 / 30 30 40 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 98 67 98 / 40 30 50 5
PLACITAS........................ 69 94 69 95 / 40 40 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 98 69 98 / 30 30 40 5
SOCORRO......................... 73 101 72 101 / 30 20 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 91 64 91 / 40 50 40 10
TIJERAS......................... 62 93 62 93 / 40 50 40 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 94 59 94 / 50 50 40 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 94 57 94 / 50 60 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 88 59 89 / 50 60 40 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 93 60 93 / 50 50 50 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 91 62 91 / 40 40 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 93 68 94 / 30 40 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 64 86 63 86 / 20 50 20 50
CAPULIN......................... 58 90 60 92 / 20 10 10 20
RATON........................... 57 94 59 97 / 20 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 59 95 60 98 / 30 20 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 90 60 91 / 30 30 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 66 99 69 101 / 10 5 5 0
ROY............................. 63 92 65 94 / 30 10 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 68 100 69 102 / 30 5 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 94 66 97 / 50 10 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 101 71 102 / 30 5 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 98 69 100 / 50 10 5 0
PORTALES........................ 70 99 70 101 / 50 10 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 99 70 101 / 40 10 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 101 73 102 / 30 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 68 95 67 96 / 20 20 5 10
ELK............................. 66 93 64 94 / 10 20 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ202-204>206-208-209.
FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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