197
FXUS65 KABQ 302349 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
A CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE TX BORDER AROUND MIDNIGHT. BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW, WITH THE
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE WHERE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARE MOST FAVORABLE. RAINFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
AND MODERATE SIDE, BUT COULD BRIEFLY REACH RATES UP TO 1"/HOUR AS
HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL FOCUS OVER
TAOS, MORA, AND COLFAX COUNTIES WHERE 1-2" IS LIKELY. 12-HOUR TOTALS
MAY EXCEED 3" OVER A SMALL AREA IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS,
BUT RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR HIGHER TOTALS.
GIVEN THE SOAKING RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF LANDSLIDES, PARTICULARLY IN STEEP AREAS ALONG THE
ENCHANTED CIRCLE. WHILE PERSISTENT RAIN WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NM,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY UNDER THE LOW AND ALONG THE
BACKSIDE TODAY AS WHERE BRIEF CLEARING WILL HELP SOME INSTABILITY
BUILD UP. AS A RESULT, AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING
COULD OCCUR IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THIS STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL SEND A
BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN NM, WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE
PLAINS NORTH OF I-40. THE WIND GUST FORECAST REMAINS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA (50 MPH), BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ISSUANCE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
AFORMENTIONED BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL NM. UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL FAVOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SO RAIN CHANCES STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT SO FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BOTH THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO
LINGERING PONDING AND VERY WET SOILS. MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN WESTERN NM
WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA THURSDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS FAVORED FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE CENTER OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER-LOW WILL CENTER ITSELF OVER FAR
NORTHERN NM ON FRIDAY, KEEPING UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A LOW CLOUD DECK
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN, WITH
HIGHS RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE PLEASANT FALL
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING
THE WARMING TREND GOING.
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THIS RIDGE TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE VERY POSITIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH, IT WOULD LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO DRAW SIGNIFICANT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
NEITHER ENSEMBLE SYSTEM IS BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WITH ALL
SHOWING LESS THAN 0.25" AREAWIDE. AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL LIKELY
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
FAVORING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND A CLOSED
LOW, WHICH IS NOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ABQ METRO THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE STATE, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL FORMING ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. A FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS MAY PRODUCE INSTANCES
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE WIND OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NM. WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS PROGGED TO MAINLY FAVOR NORTHERN NM, BRIEF INSTANCES OF
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH
SUNRISE. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN VALLEYS, DUE TO LINGERING PONDING AND VERY WET
SOILS. INCORPORATED TEMPO GROUPS FOR KGUP AND KFMN FOR MVFR/IFR IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TREND, MAINLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 09-14Z. A
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A BOUNDARY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO CENTRAL NM, HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WILL FAVOR NORTHERN NM, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 0.5-1.5". AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 0.5". SHOWERS
AND STORMS END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS (GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH) WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
AREAS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS, WITH
WESTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FAVORED THURSDAY MORNING AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS FAVORED FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY MORNING FOG MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN A FEW AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 73 51 75 / 40 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 73 39 74 / 50 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 67 44 66 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 42 69 44 71 / 30 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 67 42 66 / 20 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 44 67 44 67 / 30 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 67 44 67 / 20 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 64 47 63 / 5 10 20 0
DATIL........................... 43 62 43 61 / 5 0 10 0
RESERVE......................... 45 75 46 74 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 47 79 51 80 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 64 40 70 / 70 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 63 44 66 / 70 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 66 40 68 / 60 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 61 38 69 / 100 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 52 35 61 / 100 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 56 34 64 / 100 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 41 63 41 70 / 100 0 0 0
MORA............................ 43 62 41 65 / 90 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 70 43 73 / 80 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 45 64 43 66 / 60 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 66 44 67 / 40 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 70 47 72 / 40 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 70 49 72 / 40 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 72 50 73 / 40 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 71 48 72 / 40 10 10 0
BELEN........................... 51 71 50 72 / 30 20 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 72 47 73 / 40 10 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 72 48 73 / 30 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 51 72 49 73 / 40 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 72 47 73 / 30 10 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 49 68 46 70 / 40 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 71 49 72 / 40 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 73 50 73 / 10 20 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 63 43 65 / 40 20 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 66 45 68 / 40 20 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 65 44 65 / 30 20 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 67 40 67 / 30 20 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 63 44 62 / 30 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 64 44 63 / 30 20 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 64 44 63 / 30 10 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 69 50 66 / 20 10 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 44 63 45 58 / 20 20 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 42 55 42 63 / 90 70 20 0
RATON........................... 44 61 44 68 / 90 50 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 47 64 41 68 / 90 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 62 42 65 / 70 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 63 50 65 / 90 50 20 0
ROY............................. 47 65 44 67 / 70 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 74 52 73 / 50 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 70 52 67 / 20 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 72 53 68 / 30 20 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 73 54 67 / 10 20 10 5
PORTALES........................ 55 74 54 68 / 5 20 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 74 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 77 57 70 / 0 10 20 20
PICACHO......................... 50 72 51 65 / 0 20 30 40
ELK............................. 47 71 49 64 / 0 10 30 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ203-210-211-
213>217-227-228-230.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...23
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