896
FXUS65 KABQ 302350 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 541 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH INTO MID WEEK.
- DRY STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT
WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. ONE IS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, WHILE THE OTHER IS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE ONE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT TODAY, HELPING TO GENERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. WITH DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA WILL BE OF THE DRIER NATURE. ACROSS THE
EAST, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHED IN OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUES TO TREND
HIGHER. STORMS HERE WILL GRADUALLY TREND WETTER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY CONVECTION TODAY, ALTHOUGH SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUPERCELL IN UNION COUNTY WHERE THE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. IN NORTH-
CENTRAL NM, THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG OF MU
CAPE) THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE. WHILE THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT KABQ WAS RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE, THE INCREASE OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SUPPORT A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS.
WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN WESTERN NM AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE EAST. THERE
WILL BE LESS UPPER-LEVEL FORCING THAN TODAY, BUT THE TIGHTENING OF
THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NM WILL SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WHILE A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND EVEN STORMS
COULD DEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN TODAY. BULK SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOMORROW (25
TO 35 KNOTS) SO A SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. THE GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY WHERE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE WEEK, ALLOWING RIDGING TO
BUILD IN AND MOISTURE TO SNEAK UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW SO THERE
IS A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS AROUND A 10% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" OVER
THE BURN AREAS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES
COULD TREND HIGHER OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL STILL
BE DRY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH IMPRESSIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE.
THIS DRYING IN AN ALREADY DROUGHT STRICKEN AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT VEGETATION, WHICH IS A CONCERN GIVEN THAT THE 4TH OF JULY IS ON
SATURDAY. WHILE IT IS TECHNICALLY MONSOON SEASON, IT HAS BEEN DRY OF
LATE, PARTICULARLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SO FIREWORKS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO START ADDITIONAL FIRES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL TREND UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY SPREAD FROM
EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EACH
DAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE SHOWING
PWATS OF 100 TO 130% OF NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO SO THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KT THRU SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST NEAR 25KT. A FEW CELLS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM MAY BE STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE THRU SUNSET WITH OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50KT. PATCHY SMOKE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE NM/CO BORDER MAY
REDUCE VSBYS BELOW 5SM AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING AROUND THE STATE TODAY. THERE IS A STARK DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
WESTERN AND EASTERN NM, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM AS LOW AS 20 F
IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEARLY 60 F IN THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NM TODAY, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS THE MAIN HAZARD. A FEW DRY STORMS AND VIRGA SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY,
EXCEPT EVEN DRIER ACROSS THE WEST. DESPITE THE LOWER HUMIDITIES,
WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOWER SO NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN, ISOLATED DRY STORMS WILL BE A
CONCERN ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE, WHICH WILL LIKELY
SET-UP OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN AND AROUND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER IN WESTERN NM, WITH 10 TO 15
HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH EACH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 86 42 89 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 85 51 87 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 85 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 88 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 52 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 87 58 88 / 5 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 54 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 47 88 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 51 93 50 96 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 79 43 82 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 84 60 86 / 20 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 52 85 52 87 / 30 10 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 82 51 84 / 30 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 73 44 75 / 30 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 77 38 79 / 40 10 5 0
TAOS............................ 51 84 50 87 / 20 5 5 0
MORA............................ 50 82 50 85 / 30 10 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 58 91 57 93 / 20 10 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 57 85 56 87 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 88 54 90 / 10 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 91 61 93 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 93 62 94 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 95 59 96 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 94 61 95 / 10 5 5 0
BELEN........................... 61 95 58 96 / 10 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 62 94 60 95 / 10 5 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 94 57 96 / 10 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 62 95 60 96 / 10 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 95 57 96 / 10 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 90 62 91 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 94 62 95 / 10 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 98 65 99 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 86 57 88 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 87 58 89 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 88 55 90 / 10 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 90 49 91 / 10 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 84 53 86 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 88 56 90 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 87 56 88 / 5 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 90 63 91 / 0 10 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 58 82 57 83 / 10 30 5 40
CAPULIN......................... 54 85 54 88 / 20 20 20 0
RATON........................... 51 88 50 91 / 20 10 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 53 90 52 93 / 30 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 86 53 88 / 40 10 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 63 93 62 95 / 20 20 10 0
ROY............................. 58 88 58 90 / 20 10 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 96 63 97 / 20 30 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 90 61 92 / 20 30 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 96 66 96 / 30 30 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 65 91 64 92 / 40 40 30 30
PORTALES........................ 66 93 65 93 / 50 50 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 93 65 95 / 20 30 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 68 94 67 95 / 30 40 20 20
PICACHO......................... 62 91 60 91 / 20 50 10 50
ELK............................. 60 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ105.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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