757
FXUS65 KABQ 141718 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
- BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL CREATE
DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS ALONG WEST TO EAST ROADWAYS LIKE I-40.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WESTERLY WINDS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY PRODUCED PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.30"
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS NEAR 0.60" IN THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. THREE TO 7" OF SNOWFALL HAVE BEEN REPORTED ABOVE 8,000'. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL FORCE A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT THRU THE REGION WITH CLEARING FROM WEST
TO EAST. 700MB WINDS NEAR 40KT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
WAVE WILL HELP TO SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NM WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COLDER LOW TEMPS. REMNANT SURFACE MOISTURE
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM MAY HELP SUPPORT A PERIOD OF PATCHY
FREEZING FOG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER NM
SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS, LIGHTER WINDS, AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING RIDGE
TOP WINDS AND A DEEPENING LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WILL HELP TO BOOST MAX TEMPS UP TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN NM.
DESPITE THE WARM TEMPS, FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS ARE LIMITED FOR NOW
SO EVEN WITH 700MB WINDS NEAR 35KT OVER EASTERN, SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
ONLY REMAIN IN THE BREEZY CATEGORY.
RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A 160KT SPEED
MAX SLIDES INTO NORTHWEST NM. 700MB WINDS OF 50 TO 70KT OVER EASTERN
NM TUESDAY WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT MIXING DOWN AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT MAY
SQUEEZE OUT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
YET ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WHILE STRONG WEST WINDS
CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NM. MORE STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSING THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WITH EACH THE TROUGH PASSAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING, BUT ALL
TERMINALS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. THE LONE
EXCEPTION IS AT KTCC, WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 22Z. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET.
A TYPICAL NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AT KSAF. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG/LOW STRATUS EXIST AT KFMN SUNDAY
MORNING AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM
WITH THE SYSTEM FROM FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO BRISK NORTHERLY
WINDS TODAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A RIDGE CRESTING OVER NM WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
A PROLONGED FIRE GROWING PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING OVER
EASTERN NM MONDAY WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HUMIDITY
FALLING BELOW 10% IN SOME AREAS OF EASTERN NM. LOCALIZED EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT NIGHT
WILL BE BORDERLINE POOR TO FAIR AS WELL WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. FUEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO RECEPTIVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
EVIDENCED BY SEVERAL FIRES OVER THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 19 59 23 / 20 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 24 56 29 / 30 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 17 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 25 61 30 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 20 64 24 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 24 63 31 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 32 61 35 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 50 27 61 31 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 58 23 65 27 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 27 69 30 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 20 51 25 / 30 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 31 56 34 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 53 26 59 31 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 24 54 30 / 30 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 19 48 26 / 50 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 9 56 20 / 50 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 53 19 58 25 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 24 64 30 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 25 63 27 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 31 58 35 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 27 59 32 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 36 63 40 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 33 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 30 67 33 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 32 64 35 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 63 26 67 30 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 32 65 35 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 25 67 30 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 61 30 66 35 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 27 66 31 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 34 61 38 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 32 64 35 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 32 58 35 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 53 31 59 36 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 26 63 31 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 21 64 24 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 28 59 32 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 28 61 34 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 28 61 33 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 33 64 38 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 32 61 40 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 46 24 59 30 / 30 0 0 0
RATON........................... 51 22 63 26 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 20 67 24 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 26 64 32 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 30 64 38 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 56 27 64 29 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 29 72 36 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 29 69 34 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 30 72 37 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 34 70 38 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 31 70 35 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 28 68 31 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 34 69 35 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 33 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 63 30 69 35 / 5 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11
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