238
FXUS65 KABQ 150824
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
224 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 209 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- DRY STORMS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY MAY IGNITE NEW FIRES.
LOCALIZED AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR THESE STORMS MAY RAPIDLY
SPREAD NEW FIRE STARTS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO NEAR-RECORD
HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET DRAPED OVER
SOUTHERN NM. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS HAVE TRENDED
STRONGER WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATE. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH PASSAGE, WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO PEAK AFTERNOON MIXING.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UP FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. TWO AREAS
OF DRY STORMS AND GUSTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, THE FIRST OF
WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SECOND WILL BE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. SIMILAR TO THURSDAY,
CLOUD BASES WILL BE VERY HIGH SO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL DRIVE
STRONG MICROBURST WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED IN CHAVES COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. WITH DRY SOILS, THESE STRONG DOWNBURSTS WIND GUSTS COULD
CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AT TIMES. FURTHERMORE, VERY LOW SFC
HUMIDITIES WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS
FROM LIGHTNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS COULD RAPIDLY GROW THESE NEW
FIRE STARTS.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES IN AND
AROUND THE NORTHERN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE MUCH LOWER
PWATS (AROUND 0.3") SHOULD NOT SUPPORT ANY WETTING RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL CONTINUE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN ON SUNDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SFC AND THE DEEPER
MIXING WILL DROP HUMIDITIES DOWN TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.
CURRENTLY, PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS > 50 MPH REMAIN QUITE LOW,
WITH PROBS OVER 50% CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
DECOUPLING, KEEPING BREEZES GOING IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MONDAY IS NOW LOOKING LIKE IT COULD BE WINDIER THAN SUNDAY, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS > 50 MPH 40% OR HIGHER OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN NM, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
MONDAY WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO EASTERN NM. THE MOISTURE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT COULD STICK AROUND IN THE EAST FOR A FEW
DAYS, SUPPORTING LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GIVEN THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED HOWEVER A FEW REMNANT BOUNDARIES
COULD GENERATE INTERMITTENT GUSTS IN EASTERN NM THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LLWS WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE PECOS
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS (THROUGH AROUND 09Z). HIGH
BASED SHOWERS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS AS
WELL. A LIGHT SW TO W BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AT MOST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THERE WERE SEVERAL FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING IN EASTERN NM
YESTERDAY AND IT WILL BE A THREAT ONCE AGAIN TODAY IN THE SAME
AREAS. DRY STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. VERY DEEP MIXING (UP TO 19,000 FEET) MEANS
THAT CLOUD BASES WILL BE VERY HIGH AND ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
(EVEN SHOWERS) WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION, FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THERE ARE LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS, SOUTHWEST
WINDS ENHANCED BY NEARBY SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RAPIDLY SPREAD
THESE FIRES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES ALONG WITH VERY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY (4
TO 10%) PREVAIL ON SATURDAY, CREATING WIDESPREAD NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
TACT, BUT WAS NOT YET UPGRADED SINCE WINDS ARE MARGINAL FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD. WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MAX RFTI VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 7 RANGE, WITH POCKETS OF 8 IN EASTERN NM WHERE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. LONG-DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT 10 TO 15 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY IN EASTERN NM.
MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DRY AND WINDY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FOCUSING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE THERE IS ALREADY A 50%+ CHANCE
OF WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND WEAKER BEYOND MONDAY, WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY IN EASTERN AREAS BEHIND A SERIES OF BACKDOOR FRONTAL
PASSAGES. AS A RESULT, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 85 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 82 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 80 46 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 81 43 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 46 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 82 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 79 43 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 80 52 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 78 47 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 84 41 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 87 45 87 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 77 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 80 46 82 48 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 46 78 46 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 68 40 69 41 / 5 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 74 38 75 40 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 82 41 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 79 46 81 48 / 10 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 86 50 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 48 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 54 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 89 52 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 89 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 52 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 89 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 84 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 55 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 91 56 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 81 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 83 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 84 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 79 50 82 52 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 77 56 79 54 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 78 44 82 47 / 20 5 5 0
RATON........................... 84 44 86 46 / 20 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 86 45 88 48 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 48 84 53 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 87 53 91 57 / 20 10 5 0
ROY............................. 85 49 88 52 / 20 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 93 52 96 59 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 53 92 57 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 56 99 61 / 20 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 95 58 98 58 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 54 96 55 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 95 58 98 57 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 88 58 91 56 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 86 56 89 55 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123-125-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ126.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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