466
FXUS65 KABQ 100837
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
237 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON AREA BURN
SCARS EACH DAY FROM DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TODAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM, MAINLY IN UNION COUNTY.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z RAOBS INDICATED A BROAD 596DM H5 RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM SOCAL EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN SONORA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 40KT SPEED MAX ENTERING
SOUTHERN NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO SOUTHERN CO
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS ARE MODEST ACROSS NM
WITH MANY AREAS IN THE 30S AND 40S. A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST NM WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX, LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND RATON RIDGE WILL ALLOW STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS HREF AND
REFS JOINT PROBS OF CAPE >500 J/KG, CIN >-25, AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR >30KT ARE >70% OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM. SPC ALSO INDICATES A
'SLIGHT RISK' AREA OVER UNION COUNTY WITH A LARGER 'MARGINAL RISK'
OVER NORTHEAST NM. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE VERY HOT
AND MAINLY DRY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE
LOW 100S. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
THE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL FORCE A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THRU GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
TONIGHT. A MODERATE GAP WIND IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SANTA FE
TO THE ABQ METRO WHERE REFS WIND GUST PROBS >40 MPH AVERAGE 50 TO
70%. DEEPENING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE H5
RIDGE WILL BUILD TO NEAR 598DM OVER WESTERN CO WHICH FORCES STEERING
FLOW MORE NORTH TO SOUTH. THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE AS PWATS RISE ABOVE 1" OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM AND
STORMS HAVE THE TENDENCY TO FORM REPEATEDLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN.
REFS AND HREF 24-HR LPMM QPF SHOWS STORM FOOTPRINTS WITH RAINFALL
>1" AND ISOLATED VALUES >1.50". IT MAY BE A CLOSE CALL FOR RUIDOSO
SATURDAY AS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL MOVE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DOWN THE SPINE OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS. A FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE ON HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE STORMS SATURDAY WILL FORCE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WEST THRU
THE RGV INTO WESTERN NM FOR SUNDAY. THE H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD TO NEAR
599DM FROM CENTRAL CO NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN GETS REALLY
COMPLICATED WITH LOWER PREDICTABILITY AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION
THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BECOMES A CLOSED-
LOW AND MIGRATES AROUND THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. DESPITE DEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER NM, A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MAY CAP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY THRU
TUESDAY, OR AT LEAST SHIFT THE FOCUS INTO FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
NM. MODELS HAVE VARIOUS AND INCONSISTENT INTERPRETATIONS OF HOW THE
CLOSED-LOW WILL SHIFT WEST AND IMPACT OUR STORM CHANCES BEYOND
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A TREND TOWARD HIGHER
STORM CHANCES WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THRU THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
VIRGA AND -SHRA LINGERING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY. SHRA/TS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN BETWEEN 1PM AND 3PM THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND
EAST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL SEE A DOWNTICK IN SHRA/TS COMPARED TO
RECENT DAYS. THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN NM
WILL BE FAVORED, INCLUDING NORTHEAST NM WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM. A DIRECT HIT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
WIND GUSTS >45KT, BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL SEND A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NM TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU
FRIDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THERE IS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS. A LIMITED CROP OF STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST
AROUND 10-20 MPH. ANY SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NM WILL BE DRY WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. THE STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NM TODAY WILL FORCE A MOIST BOUNDARY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL CHAIN TONIGHT. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
WETTING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20
MPH. ANOTHER LARGE OUTFLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DEEPEN MOISTURE MUCH
FARTHER WEST INTO WESTERN NM AND AZ FOR SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON STORM COVERAGE BEGINNING SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE IN STARK
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR WILL IMPACT AIRMASS
STABILITY ON SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 60 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 96 47 98 52 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 94 56 93 59 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 95 55 96 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 91 57 92 59 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 95 57 96 59 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 92 60 92 61 / 5 0 5 5
MAGDALENA....................... 93 66 92 65 / 20 5 5 10
DATIL........................... 89 61 89 62 / 20 10 5 5
RESERVE......................... 96 55 97 57 / 30 20 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 100 59 100 59 / 40 20 50 30
CHAMA........................... 88 48 89 50 / 0 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 91 65 91 65 / 10 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 93 57 90 57 / 5 5 50 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 89 55 89 56 / 0 0 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 80 47 79 49 / 5 0 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 43 83 44 / 5 0 50 0
TAOS............................ 93 52 92 53 / 0 0 20 0
MORA............................ 88 53 86 54 / 10 10 60 5
ESPANOLA........................ 98 62 99 63 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 93 63 92 63 / 0 0 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 96 61 95 61 / 0 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 100 70 99 69 / 0 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 102 68 99 66 / 0 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 104 68 102 66 / 0 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 102 70 100 69 / 0 5 5 0
BELEN........................... 103 68 101 65 / 0 5 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 103 69 101 67 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 103 66 100 63 / 0 5 10 5
CORRALES........................ 104 69 102 67 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 103 68 101 65 / 0 5 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 99 69 97 68 / 0 0 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 103 69 100 68 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 104 73 103 71 / 5 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 95 62 93 62 / 0 5 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 95 63 94 62 / 0 5 30 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 97 59 94 58 / 0 5 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 56 95 55 / 5 5 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 91 57 89 56 / 10 10 50 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 96 60 94 58 / 5 5 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 94 62 91 61 / 10 10 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 96 67 94 65 / 20 20 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 88 61 86 59 / 40 20 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 86 52 86 54 / 60 40 40 10
RATON........................... 91 53 91 54 / 40 20 60 5
SPRINGER........................ 93 55 92 55 / 40 20 60 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 56 88 56 / 20 20 50 10
CLAYTON......................... 93 61 93 62 / 40 50 20 30
ROY............................. 90 59 89 59 / 20 30 50 30
CONCHAS......................... 100 65 97 64 / 20 40 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 64 93 62 / 20 30 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 67 97 66 / 20 60 20 50
CLOVIS.......................... 100 67 96 66 / 0 30 5 40
PORTALES........................ 100 69 97 66 / 0 30 0 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 100 69 96 66 / 10 30 0 40
ROSWELL......................... 102 71 99 69 / 0 10 0 30
PICACHO......................... 97 65 94 63 / 20 10 10 30
ELK............................. 94 63 91 60 / 30 10 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-219-220.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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