809
FXUS65 KABQ 101139 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
MAINLY FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. A COUPLE
STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. TEMPERATURES COULD TIE
OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ TODAY WILL FORCE DRY
AIR FROM EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST NM.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 10% NORTH AND WEST OF THE ABQ METRO WITH
NEAR-RECORD HOT TEMPS AND SLIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES. MEANWHILE, A
50KT SPEED MAX IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
NM WHILE LOW LEVEL REMAINS BANKED AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY SLIDE OVER NORTHEAST
NM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN WILL ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA.
THE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS MORE OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM FRIDAY. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HOT TEMPS WITH
HUMIDITY <15% AND MORE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM. THIS PATTERN MAY ALLOW ANY RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN
DRY FUELS TO PERK UP AS NEW FIRE STARTS. A COUPLE HIGH-BASED AND
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL APPROACH WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM BY LATE
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARD THE NM
BOOTHEEL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE BUT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND AN UPTICK IN HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN
NM. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EVEN FARTHER EAST INTO TX BY SUNDAY WITH A
MORE NOTEWORTHY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NM. AN EXTENSION
OF THE UPPER HIGH WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NM MAY CHOKE OFF THE BETTER
MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN MX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AN
ACTUAL UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS
WILL ALSO REMAIN HOT, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NM.
MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY ARE STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MORE ACTIVE DAYS AS
THE UPPER HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A ROBUST PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NM. HOWEVER,
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN HAS BEEN ADVERTISED MANY TIMES THIS SEASON WITH
VERY LITTLE TO SHOW FOR IT. FORTUNATELY, TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER BUT
STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL FORM AROUND THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM AFTER 1PM. A COUPLE CELLS IN NORTHEAST NM
MAY BECOME STRONG AFTER 2PM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL BE VERY DRY WITH SKC AND
SLIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THRU
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM LATE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY LOW CIGS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
A VERY DRY AIRMASS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NOT EVEN MARGINALLY CRITICAL, THE COMBO OF
LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES (GUSTS 15-25 MPH), HOT TEMPS, SINGLE DIGIT
MIN HUMIDITY, AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL OCCUR IN AN AREA
ALREADY EXPERIENCING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT THIS SUMMER. ERCS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE. RECENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY PRODUCE NEW FIRE STARTS TODAY OR FRIDAY IN NORTHWEST NM.
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY WILL FEATURE THE DRY AIR SPREADING EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO MORE OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WHILE MIN
HUMIDITY BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN NM. HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WITH MORE
LIGHTNING STARTS POSSIBLE IN DRY FUELS. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL AREAWIDE.
A WETTER PATTERN WILL ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF WETTING RAINFALL. TEMPS
WILL AT LEAST TREND COOLER WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AREAWIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 91 53 92 60 / 0 0 10 5
DULCE........................... 89 45 90 52 / 0 0 5 0
CUBA............................ 87 54 89 57 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 90 51 89 55 / 0 0 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 85 51 84 54 / 0 0 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 88 53 89 58 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 85 55 84 57 / 0 0 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 85 60 87 63 / 0 0 20 0
DATIL........................... 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 20 10
RESERVE......................... 91 56 89 57 / 5 0 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 97 61 96 61 / 10 5 20 20
CHAMA........................... 82 47 83 51 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 60 86 62 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 88 53 90 57 / 0 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 50 84 53 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 81 40 81 43 / 5 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 36 82 40 / 10 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 85 50 88 54 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 81 50 86 54 / 20 10 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 91 58 93 62 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 88 58 89 60 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 56 91 60 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 64 94 66 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 65 95 68 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 64 96 67 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 64 96 67 / 0 0 5 0
BELEN........................... 95 62 97 64 / 0 0 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 95 62 96 66 / 0 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 61 96 63 / 0 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 96 63 97 66 / 0 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 60 96 62 / 0 0 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 91 62 93 65 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 94 63 95 67 / 0 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 95 68 97 70 / 0 0 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 58 87 62 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 90 60 91 63 / 0 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 57 90 61 / 0 0 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 52 91 55 / 0 0 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 56 88 59 / 5 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 58 90 60 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 58 89 60 / 5 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 64 92 66 / 10 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 83 58 86 59 / 50 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 78 53 86 56 / 50 20 0 0
RATON........................... 85 50 91 53 / 50 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 87 51 92 55 / 20 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 53 89 57 / 10 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 84 60 93 62 / 20 20 0 0
ROY............................. 85 57 91 60 / 10 30 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 93 63 98 65 / 5 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 63 96 65 / 5 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 64 98 66 / 20 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 92 65 98 67 / 30 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 65 99 67 / 30 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 66 99 68 / 5 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 98 69 101 70 / 0 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 63 96 65 / 40 5 10 0
ELK............................. 87 59 91 61 / 70 5 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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