685
FXUS65 KABQ 091215 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
515 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 446 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WHERE READINGS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
- COLDER, MORE FEBRUARY-LIKE, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO EASTERN NM
AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NM LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE STATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WET AND SLICK TRAVEL,
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL RISE.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TODAY, BUT AREAS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL OBSERVE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DROPS, AS A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA. DESPITE
SOME COOLING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, TEMPERATURE
READINGS TODAY WILL STILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE OR MIST WILL DEVELOP
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A BREEZY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCING THE MOST NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE DROPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT
TUESDAY, MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW AMOUNTS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN DRAG COOLER AIR
AND MORE BATCHES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW INTO NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WHEN ALL AREAS OF THE STATE ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS. AFTER DRIER
WEATHER ON THURSDAY, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
IN THE WAKE OF A DISTURBANCE THAT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING, COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. IN ADDITION, BROAD SHEETS OF THIN, HIGH CIRROSTRATUS
CLOUDS WILL CROSS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW TO 18 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS
WITH THE GREATEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. READINGS
WILL FALL A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE A STALLED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
RECEIVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST.
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG
THE NM/CO BORDER WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
HIGH PEAKS NEAR THE CO BORDER. THE DISTURBANCE, AND A BROADER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA, WILL DRAW A RETURN
FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO INTO NM WITH BROAD COVERAGE OF LOW
CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND PERHAPS
AS FAR NORTH AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG IN THE MIX RIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT THE CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH FOR
LOW CLOUDS TO BE MORE LIKELY. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS
FORECAST TO RETREAT SLOWLY ON MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER
THAN TODAY'S READINGS BY A FEW TO 12 DEGREES. READINGS WILL PROBABLY
COOL A FEW TO SIX DEGREES FARTHER SOUTH DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO INVADE NORTHEASTERN NM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE PLAINS. LOW STRATUS, DRIZZLE, AND MIST WILL ACCOMPANY
THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL USHER IN SEVERAL SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS OVER EASTERN
NM THROUGH THIS TIME WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING IN
LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. THIS STILL LOOKS TO JUXTAPOSE SOME
UPWARD FORCING AND CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY BEFORE EXPANDING TO SOME ADDITIONAL
NORTHERN AND EVEN EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS
POINTS TO OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STAYING ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE NOW
LOOKING TO FARE BEST ABOVE 8,000 FEET WITH SOME PEAKS NOW CLOSING
IN ON 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 ABOVE 10,000
FEET. CONFIDENCE IN THESE NUMBERS IS STILL RATHER LOW. TUESDAY’S
TEMPERATURES WOULD OF COURSE RUN COLDER IN THE EASTERN ZONES, BUT
EVEN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES (STILL
HOVERING ABOVE NORMAL) AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION DEVELOP.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT’S SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BE CAPPED
OFF WITH A MORE VIGOROUS ONE ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER
WEAKER TRAILING ONE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED AND QPF HAS TRENDED
DOWNWARD DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO KEEP SURPRISINGLY HIGH POP VALUES WITH LIGHT QPF (0.15 OR
LESS). TRIMMED POPS DOWN, BUT WE WILL SEE WHAT NEW MODEL RUNS
BRING IN. REGARDLESS, COLDER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE EASIER TO AGREE
UPON WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STAY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WOULD VEER SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. SUBTLE WARMING WOULD ENSUE, BUT MOST
LOCALES WOULD STILL LIKELY FAIL TO REACH NORMALCY. THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO FRIDAY, SENDING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALOFT AND STRONGER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NM
WHILE A DEEP LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS WILL
REINTRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO MOST ZONES FRIDAY WHILE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LEADS TO MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHWESTERN STATES, FEEDING INTO WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE DAY. THE TROUGH AXIS WOULD THEN LIKELY CROSS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION BREAKING UP, AND UNABLE TO ENTER EASTERN
NM ZONES DUE TO PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPING. THE FLOW WOULD TURN
NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TRAILING
SHORTWAVES TO KEEP BATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 446 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CROSS TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, A BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ABOUT A 40%
CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH AS FAR WEST AS CLINES CORNERS AND
RUIDOSO BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM MST SUN FEB 9 2025
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE CONTINUED COOLING OVERALL
WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY STARTING MONDAY AS A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN US WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT. EXCEPT FOR SOME SUB 15%
HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS TODAY, MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL RISE NEAR AND ABOVE 15% DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK AS SOME GULF MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FOLLOWED BY MOISTURE WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER POTENTIALLY MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. ANY WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT
FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ELSEWHERE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST CENTRAL AREAS THAT DAY BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE KEYING ON A POTENTIALLY STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
CHANCE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL VARY
FROM 20-30 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 33 59 29 / 0 5 5 10
DULCE........................... 51 23 53 23 / 0 5 10 30
CUBA............................ 53 30 57 27 / 0 5 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 59 25 60 23 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 58 34 60 27 / 0 0 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 63 28 64 23 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 63 35 62 28 / 0 0 5 5
MAGDALENA....................... 66 44 64 35 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 63 39 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 69 28 65 21 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 72 40 68 30 / 0 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 46 25 46 23 / 0 20 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 38 56 35 / 0 5 10 20
PECOS........................... 55 31 55 30 / 0 0 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 33 50 28 / 0 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 41 29 41 22 / 0 10 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 24 47 20 / 0 5 20 20
TAOS............................ 53 27 54 24 / 0 10 10 20
MORA............................ 54 28 54 24 / 0 0 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 60 33 62 29 / 0 5 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 55 36 56 33 / 0 5 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 34 59 31 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 40 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 38 67 32 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 68 35 69 33 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 63 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 35 68 32 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 64 38 65 35 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 37 68 32 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 60 40 62 38 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 72 43 71 37 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 37 58 37 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 59 39 60 38 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 33 61 35 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 28 63 25 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 27 58 26 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 36 60 33 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 36 60 32 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 43 63 39 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 63 43 58 37 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 40 22 52 18 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 45 21 57 19 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 47 21 60 20 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 26 57 23 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 21 53 17 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 43 22 55 20 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 51 26 62 26 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 28 63 26 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 25 61 26 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 51 29 54 29 / 0 0 10 10
PORTALES........................ 53 28 54 30 / 0 0 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 29 58 28 / 0 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 39 62 40 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 66 35 67 37 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 70 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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