356
FXUS65 KABQ 261157 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, FAVORING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM LATE
IN THE DAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER BURN
SCARS AND ANY AREAS THAT MAY BE SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL.
THIS INCLUDES THE HERMIT'S PEAK CALF CANYON BURN SCAR AND BURN
SCARS AROUND RUIDOSO.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM, AND UP TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND SUNRISE.
LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST AREAS THAT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SATURATED AFTER TODAY'S
RAINFALL. MEANWHILE, THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS WESTWARD
AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR TODAY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THE FRONT WILL LARGELY MIX OUT, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN ENOUGH
INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AREAWIDE. THERE'S ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS THAT KEEP
LOW LEVEL EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM, AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY
RESULTING IN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LESS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM. THE OUTCOME WILL LIKELY BE SOME COMBINATION OF
THE TWO SCENARIOS, BUT THIS RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE
FORECAST TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. CONFIDENCE
IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN NM. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. MOST CAMS SUGGEST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SEE STORMS, THOUGH DIFFER IN
AMOUNT. WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MTN BY MID DAY, OR AT LEAST MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE, THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS COULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
RUIDOSO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
HERMIT'S PEAK CALF CANYON BURN SCAR HAS SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
THREE DAYS IN A ROW NOW, SO IT IS PRIMED FOR FLOODING SHOULD
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR. THUS, OPTED TO ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN SCARS. FORTUNATELY, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
A BIT FASTER TODAY, GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT, CAMS GENERALLY SHOW A BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, IN
SIMILAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS MONDAY. THAT SAID, THE NAM
AND EC ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS. THUS, THE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS TONIGHT. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
STORMS DO THIS, BUT IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST, THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED.
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LESS EXCITED ABOUT WEDNESDAY'S CROP OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER TEXAS, ALLOWING FOR MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER NM.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST SCATTERED ACTIVITY NEARLY AREAWIDE, BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ABOVE 500 MB, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LESS
ROBUST AND WITH STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND
10 OR SO MPH, THAT SHOULD LIMIT CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE
AREA THAT SHOULD STILL BE WATCHED IS AROUND RUIDOSO WHERE MOIST
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ONTO THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL PERSIST,
BUT ATTM, ALL CAMS SUGGEST ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE EAST OF
THE VILLAGE. MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK WESTWARD ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN
NM/FAR WEST TEXAS. AS THIS OCCURS, ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM. MOIST UPSLOPE ONTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD FAVOR THIS AREA AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST NM FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS, THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE WILL STILL BE A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS
LOOK TO BLOW OFF TS JULIETTE INTO WESTERN NM BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT. THE FRONT LOOKS TO
LARGELY MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY, BUT THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS, AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTION. THE EAST SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORED ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TO SPILL ACROSS WESTERN NM.
THUS, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NM SUN AND MON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM NEAR KFMN
EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR KTCC. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, MVFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NM. LOCALIZED AREAS, INCLUDING KLVS, HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO LIFR. LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY SQUEAK INTO KSAF AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY
ERODE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL ERODE TODAY.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST. STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS MAY SHIFT OVER NE
NM IN THE EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE STRONGER STORMS
AS WELL AS GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
BY SUNRISE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS ONCE AGAIN. ON WEDNESDAY,
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP NEARLY AREAWIDE, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS ROBUST AS TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT.
STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOLLOWING ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE MAY
SEEP BACK ACROSS WESTERN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 85 63 83 60 / 70 70 40 20
DULCE........................... 80 49 77 45 / 70 70 70 20
CUBA............................ 80 53 77 54 / 70 70 60 20
GALLUP.......................... 82 54 80 52 / 60 60 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 77 53 / 60 60 60 20
GRANTS.......................... 83 56 81 54 / 60 60 60 20
QUEMADO......................... 82 55 79 53 / 50 60 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 84 60 80 60 / 30 30 50 30
DATIL........................... 80 54 78 53 / 40 50 60 20
RESERVE......................... 86 54 86 53 / 40 50 50 20
GLENWOOD........................ 89 58 89 58 / 40 50 40 10
CHAMA........................... 73 48 71 44 / 70 70 70 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 57 75 57 / 70 60 60 30
PECOS........................... 76 54 77 53 / 60 50 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 52 73 50 / 70 70 60 20
RED RIVER....................... 64 45 64 42 / 70 60 60 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 41 70 37 / 70 60 50 20
TAOS............................ 77 54 77 49 / 70 60 50 20
MORA............................ 70 49 75 47 / 70 60 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 85 58 83 56 / 70 60 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 78 58 77 59 / 60 60 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 81 57 81 56 / 60 50 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 66 84 67 / 40 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 64 85 64 / 30 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 64 87 64 / 30 40 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 65 86 65 / 40 50 30 20
BELEN........................... 92 62 88 61 / 30 30 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 89 64 86 62 / 40 50 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 61 87 60 / 30 30 30 20
CORRALES........................ 90 64 86 64 / 40 50 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 63 87 62 / 30 30 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 85 62 82 62 / 40 40 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 64 85 64 / 40 50 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 93 65 90 65 / 20 30 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 56 79 57 / 40 40 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 82 59 80 59 / 40 40 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 81 54 81 54 / 40 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 54 82 52 / 40 30 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 55 78 55 / 40 40 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 56 82 56 / 30 30 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 56 81 57 / 30 30 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 61 84 62 / 30 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 77 55 76 57 / 40 30 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 67 53 78 52 / 70 60 40 20
RATON........................... 71 52 80 50 / 70 60 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 74 54 83 51 / 60 60 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 54 79 52 / 60 60 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 70 59 84 59 / 40 60 10 20
ROY............................. 72 56 82 55 / 50 60 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 82 61 88 60 / 30 60 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 59 85 59 / 30 60 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 59 88 61 / 20 50 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 84 61 90 65 / 20 40 5 10
PORTALES........................ 86 61 91 65 / 20 40 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 63 89 64 / 20 40 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 93 67 93 67 / 20 30 10 10
PICACHO......................... 88 59 87 61 / 20 30 30 20
ELK............................. 83 56 83 58 / 30 20 40 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-
215-226-229.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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