039
FXUS65 KABQ 201119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- STRONG GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS PUSHING INTO SANTA FE AND ABQ THIS
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING.
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM ANY NEW SPARK FAVORED TO
RETURN TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED SMALL DISTURBANCES AND MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING BROKEN SKIES REMAINS ALOFT OVER NM
THIS MORNING. WITH A STUBBORNLY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL
OVER UT/AZ, THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THRU WESTERN NM
THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A MOIST CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THAT PUSHED
INTO EASTERN NM BEHIND YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT REMAINS ENTRENCHED AND
HAS PUSHED WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
BRINGING GUSTY EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO SANTA FE AND ABQ.
THIS AIRMASS HAS SHUNTED THE INTRUSION OF A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIRMASS FROM THE GULF SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. THIS IS
FAVORING THE SHALLOW MORE STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PERSISTING OVER
EASTERN NM THRU MUCH OF THE TODAY. A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO'S ON GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS HOUR AND IS FAVORED TO
EXPAND FURTHER OVER EASTERN NM. SOME THE SOUPIER GULF MOISTURE WILL
TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD HOWEVER, PUSHING UP THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM, PERHAPS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AS WELL. THIS IS FAVORING A SCENARIO WHERE HIGHER
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY EXISTING ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LESSER
INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ACROSS EASTERN NM. COUPLED WITH
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MARKING 45-50KTS OF 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR, THIS IS YIELDING A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR THE SOUPIER LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE
CAN INTRUDE NORTHWARD AND HOW ENTRENCHED THE LOW STRATUS BLANKET
WILL BE THRU EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT. SIMPLY PUT, THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAVORS SOUTHEASTERN NM, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AS ONE GOES NORTHWARD TOWARDS I-40. LIGHTER SHOWERS MIXED
WITH DRIZZLE IS FAVORED FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT TOWARD THE CO
BORDER.
THURSDAY SEES A SIMILAR SET UP AS TODAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHING
BACK WEST THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY IN THE MORNING BEFORE RETREATING TOWARD TX IN THE
AFTERNOON, REPLACED BY DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVANCING FROM
WESTERN NM. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE INTERIOR MOIST
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AND SOUPIER MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS FROM THE
GULF BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FAR EASTERN
NM. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE IS FAVORED
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THURSDAY MORNING, THIS WILL QUICKLY BURN
OFF WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL ADVANCE BACK WEST A FEW
COUNTIES DEEP FROM TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE THE STALLED UPPER LEVEL H5 TROUGH FINALLY
TREKS EASTWARD OVER CO. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
ADVANCING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE NM/TX LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
SHUTTING DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A COLD FRONT WILL BACK SOUTH
AND WEST THRU EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RETURN INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZ/NM THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL TRY TO PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST
BY MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF EXPANSION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THEREAFTER, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
BRING STRENGTHENING DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR OVERRIDING THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM WOULD FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
CONDITIONS PUNCH FURTHER EAST ACROSS NM BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS REMAIN AT KSAF AND KABQ THIS HOUR, BUT
ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NM, AND AMDS MAY BE NECESSARY AT KROW TO
ADJUST IF CEILINGS COME DOWN. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPING INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY, HAVE BROUGHT CEILINGS
THERE TO MVFR IN A TEMPO GROUP. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM WITH LIGHTER MORE DRIZZLE
PRECIPITATION IF ANY FAVORED FURTHER NORTH TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NM.
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EAST CANYON WINDS FAVORED
TO RETURN TO KSAF AND KABQ LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, BUT AT
A MUCH LESSER CLIP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WITH BREEZY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
WESTERN NM WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ALONGSIDE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NM REMAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SEE HIGHER MOISTURE PUSH IN THRU THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT, MIXED OUT BY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR EASTERN NM AS WELL, WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DRIER WESTERLIES ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
REPLACED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM CO THRU EASTERN NM BRINGING A
RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES
SATURDAY. DAILY ROUNDS OF SLOWER MOVING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS PUSHING MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY. THUS MONDAY IS
FAVORED TO SEE THE MOST WESTWARD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SMALL UNTIL TUESDAY
WHEN FASTER STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAVORED. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLIES
ADVANCE BACK THRU WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 73 31 75 32 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 74 40 75 40 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 35 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 72 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 40 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 75 42 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 74 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 79 40 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 84 44 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 66 33 69 33 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 49 73 48 / 20 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 70 43 74 40 / 30 40 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 41 70 41 / 20 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 34 61 34 / 20 5 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 30 66 29 / 30 10 20 0
TAOS............................ 74 37 74 35 / 20 5 10 0
MORA............................ 66 42 70 39 / 30 50 30 0
ESPANOLA........................ 80 45 81 43 / 20 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 73 48 75 47 / 20 20 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 45 78 44 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 54 82 54 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 51 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 50 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 87 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 85 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 86 46 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 86 51 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 80 53 80 52 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 89 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 48 76 48 / 10 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 78 48 77 48 / 5 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 44 78 44 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 40 79 40 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 44 74 44 / 30 20 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 45 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 75 50 73 51 / 10 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 58 40 66 39 / 20 60 60 30
RATON........................... 64 42 70 40 / 40 50 60 20
SPRINGER........................ 65 43 72 40 / 30 50 60 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 45 72 42 / 30 50 20 5
CLAYTON......................... 61 47 71 47 / 30 60 60 50
ROY............................. 60 45 71 44 / 40 50 50 10
CONCHAS......................... 68 48 80 48 / 60 50 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 47 77 46 / 60 50 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 50 80 50 / 60 40 50 20
CLOVIS.......................... 69 51 80 52 / 50 20 30 5
PORTALES........................ 70 50 81 51 / 50 20 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 50 82 49 / 60 30 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 80 55 86 55 / 40 20 5 0
PICACHO......................... 78 50 82 52 / 40 10 20 0
ELK............................. 81 49 82 50 / 20 5 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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