931
FXUS65 KABQ 221718 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1118 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL NOT SLOSH WESTWARD AS FAR AS LAST NIGHT,
AND THUS, WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NM, AND THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AROUND SUNRISE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHEAST NM. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE STALLING NEAR A SANTA ROSA TO PORTALES LINE. BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 2-4PM. ENOUGH INSTABILITY (800-1500J/KG MLCAPE)
AND SHEAR (~30KT 0-6KM) EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP. STORMS WILL HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL TO STAY SEVERE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ONCE STORMS MOVE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD, THEY SHOULD TEND TO
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT, AIDED BY ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS OR STORMS POP UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3AM SATURDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW GAPS IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST WIND WILL
LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EAST
TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT SQUEAKED WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL QUICKLY MIX BACK OUT ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
BE SHIFTING OVER EASTERN CO. THE RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST NM WILL YIELD NEARLY 40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FUEL ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON OR
NEAR THE RATON RIDGE AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN COLFAX
AND UNION COUNTIES. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS HARDING AND
QUAY COUNTIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD, BUT THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT,
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BUT
ON SUNDAY, H5 HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHS
OVER NM. MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT, EVEN ACROSS
EASTERN NM, BUT ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER, HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB, AND ALL AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES NM. AS
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON MONDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL NM, PROBABLY WITH THE AID OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP (IE. IF THERE'S A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION). AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS PROMISING
THAT MOST AREAS WILL GET SOME RAINFALL, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE
VARIABLE - AS IS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP BACK
INTO THE TEENS, BUT THE MOISTURE WILL NOT FULLY MIX OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THUS, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON
TAP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL MIX OUT FURTHER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO/SCT STORMS IS FORECAST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM,
BUT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF TAF SITES. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG TO EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
CREATE A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND AT KABQ THAT MAY APPROACH AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING THRESHOLD BETWEEN 08-14Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE,
TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING GUSTINESS IS FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH EACH AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE EAST, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIURNALLY SLOSH BACK AND FORTH, WITH THE AID OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM. MAIN
CONCERN HERE WILL BE ANY LIGHTNING STARTED FIRES. ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED AS A STORM
SYSTEM CROSSES THE STATE. SEVERAL AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING
RAINFALL, BUT FOOTPRINTS MAY BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE NATURE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB-15% RH RETURNING. THE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO
PUSH FURTHER INTO EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO RETURN WED AND THURS ACROSS WESTERN NM.
OTHERWISE, STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 79 44 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 76 39 77 38 / 0 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 76 43 77 44 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 77 38 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 74 41 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 79 40 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 75 44 78 45 / 0 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 76 50 78 52 / 0 5 5 0
DATIL........................... 73 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 81 41 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 44 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 70 37 72 37 / 0 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 51 75 53 / 0 5 20 0
PECOS........................... 77 43 75 44 / 0 5 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 41 72 42 / 5 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 63 35 62 35 / 5 20 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 31 67 30 / 10 20 20 5
TAOS............................ 77 42 76 41 / 0 10 10 0
MORA............................ 73 42 70 43 / 10 20 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 83 49 80 49 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 77 48 76 49 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 47 79 48 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 56 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 86 50 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 53 84 55 / 0 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 86 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 86 52 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 86 49 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 81 54 81 56 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 87 57 88 57 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 50 77 52 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 79 51 79 52 / 0 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 48 79 49 / 0 0 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 42 80 42 / 0 0 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 45 75 47 / 10 0 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 47 79 48 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 45 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 74 50 73 51 / 10 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 40 68 42 / 30 70 50 20
RATON........................... 73 42 73 42 / 40 60 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 75 43 74 43 / 30 60 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 43 72 44 / 20 10 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 72 46 72 49 / 20 70 30 20
ROY............................. 74 45 72 47 / 30 40 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 83 51 81 51 / 30 20 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 50 80 50 / 30 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 52 81 53 / 20 40 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 86 51 82 52 / 20 20 10 10
PORTALES........................ 88 51 83 53 / 20 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 51 84 52 / 20 10 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 90 55 89 57 / 10 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 84 50 81 51 / 10 0 10 0
ELK............................. 82 49 80 49 / 10 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
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