077
FXUS65 KABQ 071935
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL LEAD
TO STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING, AND A RISK
OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
- DRY AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY COULD PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
OF PWATS BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES IN PLACE. THE DRIER AIR AND
DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS IS RESULTING IN HOT TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM. MID LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON ARE INDICATING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY MOVES EAST TO OVER TEXAS ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY WILL HEAT UP A DEGREE TO TWO AREAWIDE
RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR RISK FOR
HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM TODAY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -4 DEG C WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RGV COME THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FIRE STARTS. FINALLY, DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM (GALLUP) COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE,
ALONG WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE DUE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 3000 J/KG. FINALLY, FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, DEEP DAYTIME MIXING WILL TAP INTO MUCH DRIER 500 TO 700 MB
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE
RESULTING IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM
THAT EXPERIENCED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FIRE STARTS AND RESULTANT RAPID SPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, EXCEPT A
TOUCH COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND HOT AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STATE BEING
SOUTH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE PRECEDING DAYS OF HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105 DEG F) ACROSS
THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS, INCLUDING ROSWELL. A BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING COOLS HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 5 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT RETREATS FRIDAY SETTING UP MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER WESTERLY FLOW RETREATS
NORTH DUE TO THE MONSOON HIGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND
DESERT SW. THIS WILL HELP HIGHER MOISTURE FROM MEXICO TO GRADUALLY
MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE END RESULT WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT
WITH LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO 100.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HOT WITH SOME DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS FOR SOME
PILOTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE CHUSKA AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS IN AND AROUND GALLUP WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH, SO
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ZONE. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD RESULT IN FIRE
STARTS. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL HELP TO
INCREASE WINDS AREAWIDE. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SINGLE
DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE ZONES HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING. LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM
THAT EXPERIENCED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MONDAY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR FIRE STARTS AND RESULTANT RAPID SPREAD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD CONTAIN
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. DRY AND HOT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND PRECEDING DAYS OF HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO RETURN TO FIRST EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY
AND THEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 93 55 93 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 45 88 46 87 / 0 5 10 20
CUBA............................ 53 86 52 88 / 0 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 46 89 46 90 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 84 50 88 / 0 10 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 52 89 51 91 / 0 20 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 50 86 51 89 / 5 10 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 59 85 60 88 / 0 20 10 20
DATIL........................... 53 83 55 87 / 0 20 10 10
RESERVE......................... 49 90 50 90 / 0 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 52 95 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 80 45 79 / 0 10 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 85 59 86 / 0 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 54 87 54 85 / 0 10 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 83 53 82 / 0 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 75 44 72 / 0 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 79 46 80 / 0 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 51 86 52 86 / 0 10 10 20
MORA............................ 53 85 52 83 / 0 10 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 57 92 57 92 / 0 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 59 87 60 87 / 0 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 90 57 90 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 93 65 94 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 94 62 95 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 97 61 98 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 94 62 95 / 0 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 61 96 59 98 / 0 10 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 63 95 62 97 / 0 10 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 96 58 97 / 0 10 10 10
CORRALES........................ 64 96 62 96 / 0 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 96 59 97 / 5 10 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 91 63 94 / 0 10 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 94 62 95 / 0 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 66 97 66 98 / 5 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 88 59 89 / 0 10 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 58 90 / 0 10 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 90 56 90 / 0 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 91 53 91 / 0 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 86 56 87 / 0 5 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 90 56 90 / 0 10 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 88 57 89 / 0 5 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 59 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 52 92 53 90 / 0 0 0 30
SPRINGER........................ 52 93 53 93 / 0 0 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 89 55 88 / 0 5 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 97 62 93 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 56 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 60 100 64 97 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 97 61 92 / 0 0 0 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 102 68 97 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 64 99 65 93 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 64 100 65 94 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 64 102 68 97 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 62 95 62 92 / 0 0 0 30
ELK............................. 60 93 61 90 / 0 0 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ101-105.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ105.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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