945
FXUS65 KABQ 282352 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
AND NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CREATING HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN SO STAY TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES IF PLANNING TO
TRAVEL IN THIS AREA MONDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER MID-WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH BEING OBSERVED JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS.
THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE FRONT IS ALSO PUSHING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE RISING SUN. WINDS
ARE LIKELY PEAKING RIGHT AROUND NOW, WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE 700MB WINDS RAPIDLY DROP OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD INVERSION CONDITIONS IN
MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT OF A WARM/MOIST
AIRMASS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SNOWBAND SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH/CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THIS SNOWBAND EXPANDING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD
BY SUNRISE. THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL INSURE THE PTYPE IS ALL SNOW INITIALLY, EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING. A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE WITH LIFT THROUGHOUT THIS LAYER WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LARGE FLAKY SNOW, WITH RATES >1"/HOUR WHERE THE MAIN E/W ORIENTED
BAND SETS UP. RECENT TRENDS HAVE NUDGED THIS SNOW BAND NORTHWARD AND
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING RUIDOSO, EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY, AND
CHAVES COUNTY. WHILE THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THESE COUNTIES MAY
REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY, THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE ZONES HAVE A
10% CHANCE OF RECEIVING 4-7". THE BULLSEYE FOR SNOW LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE IN SW CHAVES COUNTY OR ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE, THIS MAY BE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH RIGHT INTO THE RUIDOSO AREA. THIS IS THE KIND OF
SCENARIO WHERE BOTH THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY END UP VERIFYING IN DIFFERENT AREAS, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
BAND SETS UP.
THE RECENT WARMTH MEANS GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE WELL-ABOVE FREEZING
SO SNOW MAY INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE FROM ROSWELL TO DEXTER
UNTIL HEAVIER RATES DEVELOP. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING,
WITH MOST SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS
A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THIS
EVENT IN CHAVES COUNTY AS WARM AIR IN THE 700-850MB LAYER ERODES THE
COLD AIR. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT IS UNLIKELY AND THAT
ELEVATED TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW -3C, BUT MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
POOR AT RESOLVING THESE ELEVATED WARM LAYERS SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH. ELSEWHERE, MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN A WHILE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR
LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON SHOWING THE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY, WITH THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE SIMPLY BEING TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH
BASED VIRGA AND GLOOMY SKIES, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT
RAIN/SNOW NOW LOOKS UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A FEW
DEGREES ON TUESDAY, WITH MORE WARMING WEDNESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS FROM
PACIFIC MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO GET INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT
THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH WITH
AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE EJECTS INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THERE ARE STILL DECENT TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOVE 9,000 FEET WITH THIS PACIFIC
STORM SO ANY SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIP. REMAINS IN WESTERN NM AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA, DESPITE THE
GLOOMY SKIES EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST,
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION, IFR CONDITIONS, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM RUIDOSO
AND DUNKEN EASTWARD TO ROSWELL LATE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND SUNSET ON
MONDAY. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY THEN LINGER IN THOSE
LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS. A
DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS IS FUNNELING INTO THE STATE TODAY,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VENTILATION IMPROVEMENTS. STRONG NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKENING TO A LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT.
A SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND AREAS JUST EAST. DRIER WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT, POOR VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE
DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE LATE WEEK, WITH A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE STATE. VENTILATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPROVEMENTS FRIDAY IN AT LEAST EASTERN NM
AS WINDS STRENGTHEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 16 44 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 10 46 12 51 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 15 41 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 9 45 10 49 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 17 43 19 51 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 9 45 12 51 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 20 45 23 54 / 0 10 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 25 37 27 48 / 0 20 10 10
DATIL........................... 22 39 25 50 / 0 20 10 10
RESERVE......................... 19 50 22 59 / 10 40 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 23 53 25 61 / 20 50 20 10
CHAMA........................... 13 40 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 20 38 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 16 40 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 18 40 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 13 34 14 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 2 39 5 49 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 12 43 10 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 13 42 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 16 46 15 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 40 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 20 42 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 45 29 49 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 46 24 50 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 48 23 51 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 46 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 19 45 19 50 / 0 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 25 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 47 19 51 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 25 48 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 20 46 21 50 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 26 43 26 48 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 47 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 24 43 28 52 / 0 20 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 20 39 22 46 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 23 40 23 46 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 18 40 19 49 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 12 40 12 51 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 16 36 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 20 38 21 49 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 36 21 49 / 0 10 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 26 38 28 50 / 20 50 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 23 33 25 47 / 30 60 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 12 38 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 12 40 14 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 12 43 12 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 40 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 16 43 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 15 40 15 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 18 46 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 40 19 56 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 18 47 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 21 42 22 54 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 22 42 21 54 / 0 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 19 42 18 53 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 26 35 22 48 / 30 60 40 5
PICACHO......................... 24 34 22 50 / 20 50 30 5
ELK............................. 19 34 19 52 / 50 70 40 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST
MONDAY FOR NMZ226-238-239.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM MST MONDAY
FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
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