401
FXUS65 KABQ 251134 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
EXCEPT FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.
- SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TODAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. THE 00Z ABQ SOUNDING
BOASTED A 0.73" PWAT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB OVERNIGHT
INTO THE 0.90" RANGE AS PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO
NM. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS CROSSING THE STATE,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY EXPAND ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 50 MPH, THOUGH WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF ONE OR TWO HAD HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
THAT A FEW STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OUTSIDE
OF NORTHEAST NM WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE A FOCUS. WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS
WILL BE LARGER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL SPOTTY OWING TO QUICK
STORM MOTIONS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE MOST COMMON. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY,
THOUGH A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CA WILL BEGIN TO STEER
DRIER AIR OVER NM. MUCH LIKE THURSDAY, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. A BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE LOITERING
AROUND FAR NORTHEAST NM WHICH COULD TRIGGER A SEVERE STORM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN OVER THE
WEEKEND, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER NM. DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY. 25 TO 35KT ARE NOTED AT H7,
DEEP MIXING (WELL ABOVE H7), AND WARMER TEMPERATURES CAUSE GREAT
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA.
GUSTS AT THE SURFACE OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON. ANY FIRES
THAT START DUE TO LIGHTNING THROUGH FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SPREAD RAPIDLY. MORE DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND WINDY, THERE WILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM TO DEVELOP.
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CREEP BACK
TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST. FOR MONDAY, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LINGER FOR MOST AREAS, BUT RETURN FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DRAW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THESE
AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN IMPROVES MORE MONDAY
NIGHT, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTDVD TUESDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION GOING FORWARD WILL
BE HOW FAR EAST THE WEST COAST TROUGH MIGRATES AND IF DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, OR IF SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NM WHICH WOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLDU MAY CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITY. FEWER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING,
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOSE INTO NE NM AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE
AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. THOUGH PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL, QUICK STORM MOTIONS
WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD OVER NM THIS WEEKEND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH EACH AFTERNOON AND HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING THAT
ALREADY HAS HAPPENED AND WILL HAPPEN THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY
LIGHTNING-STARTED FIRES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY
SPREAD THIS WEEKEND. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF NORTHWEST NM, NORTHEAST NM, AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FOR
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME NUANCES BETWEEN EACH AREA IN TERMS OF
VEGETATION AND PRECIPITATION. NORTHWEST NM REMAINS VERY DRY, AND
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE CONCERNS OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. ACROSS NORTHEAST NM,
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERE STORMS, AND SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
DROPPED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. BUT THEY TOO HAVE BEEN
SPOTTY, AND THERE IS A MIX OF THE AMOUNT OF GREEN-UP THAT HAS
OCCURRED. SO, THERE ARE STILL POCKETS THAT COULD BURN RAPIDLY. IF
THIS AREA RECEIVED WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY,
THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED, BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
POINT. THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS HAVE JUST RECENTLY RECEIVED SOME GOOD
BUT SPOTTY RAIN, BUT LOCAL INTEL SUGGESTS IT'S STILL QUITE BROWN
AND READY TO BURN. THIS IS CORROBORATED BY HOW QUICK THE CANYON
VENADO FIRE SPREAD EAST OF CLINES CORNERS EARLIER THIS WEEK. IF
WINDS TREND UPWARD FURTHER, THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED INTO THE WATCH.
ANOTHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL STILL PREVAIL MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
GRADUALLY THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 61 91 59 / 30 30 30 20
DULCE........................... 85 51 86 49 / 20 40 40 40
CUBA............................ 82 55 83 55 / 50 50 60 20
GALLUP.......................... 85 55 87 56 / 50 50 30 5
EL MORRO........................ 82 54 84 54 / 50 50 30 5
GRANTS.......................... 86 54 87 54 / 50 40 40 10
QUEMADO......................... 84 56 86 57 / 60 30 30 5
MAGDALENA....................... 87 61 88 63 / 50 40 40 5
DATIL........................... 84 57 85 58 / 60 30 30 5
RESERVE......................... 90 51 91 53 / 40 30 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 96 57 96 57 / 30 30 10 5
CHAMA........................... 79 48 79 47 / 30 30 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 61 84 61 / 40 30 50 20
PECOS........................... 84 54 85 55 / 40 30 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 54 81 54 / 40 30 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 71 47 72 48 / 40 40 50 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 42 76 43 / 20 30 30 20
TAOS............................ 84 54 85 53 / 30 20 40 20
MORA............................ 81 53 83 53 / 40 30 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 89 59 90 58 / 40 30 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 84 59 85 59 / 50 30 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 57 88 57 / 40 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 63 90 63 / 50 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 63 92 63 / 50 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 61 94 61 / 60 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 63 92 62 / 60 30 40 10
BELEN........................... 94 60 94 60 / 60 30 40 10
BERNALILLO...................... 91 62 92 62 / 60 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 58 93 59 / 60 30 40 10
CORRALES........................ 91 62 92 62 / 60 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 58 93 59 / 60 30 40 10
PLACITAS........................ 88 64 90 64 / 50 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 63 91 63 / 60 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 96 68 96 70 / 50 30 50 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 59 86 60 / 50 30 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 87 60 88 60 / 50 30 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 58 89 58 / 40 30 40 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 54 90 53 / 40 20 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 56 86 56 / 30 20 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 58 89 59 / 40 20 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 59 89 59 / 40 20 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 65 93 67 / 20 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 85 59 86 62 / 20 30 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 85 52 85 54 / 20 20 30 20
RATON........................... 89 52 89 52 / 20 20 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 90 55 91 55 / 20 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 56 87 58 / 30 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 92 60 91 63 / 30 20 40 30
ROY............................. 89 58 89 59 / 20 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 99 64 99 65 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 64 95 65 / 20 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 65 99 68 / 20 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 97 66 98 67 / 20 30 10 20
PORTALES........................ 98 66 99 68 / 20 30 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 65 98 67 / 30 30 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 101 68 102 70 / 30 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 96 65 96 66 / 30 20 20 10
ELK............................. 92 61 93 63 / 30 20 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-120-121-123-125.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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