710
FXUS65 KABQ 011911
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
- PERIODS OF WET ROADS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS ON PASSES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REACHING OVER
9,000 FEET.
- WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH TODAY, AND UP TO 60
MPH FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ROADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS INTO THE EASTERN HIGH PLAINS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.70", WHICH
SMASHED THE DAILY RECORD OF 0.54". HOWEVER, FORCING IS WEAK AT
BEST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM OVER AZ/UT. THE RESULT IS AREAS OF ONLY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT HAS MEASURED AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND BETWEEN 0.10-0.20" ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NM. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH, AROUND 9KFT AND VERY LITTLE TO
NO SNOW HAS BEEN NOTED AT AREA SNOTELS. HOWEVER, THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW
SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT NOT OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER CA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS OVERNIGHT AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON
FRIDAY, STEERING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA AND RESULTING
IN WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WITH
700MB WIND SPEEDS FORECAST TO REACH UP BETWEEN 50-60KTS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING A PACIFIC FRONT, SO THERE WILL BE A
GRADIENT COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON FRIDAY AS WELL. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND GUADALUPE
COUNTY (MAINLY FOR FAR WESTERN PORTIONS) FOR FRIDAY WITH THE 12Z
GFS MOS PEAKING AT 34KTS SUSTAINED AND THE NAM MOS AS 37KTS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND,
WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND WARMING THAT WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BE THE
SETUP FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH,
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT FROM MID TO LATE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH THIS FEATURE,
SO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION AROUND MID
WEEK AT TIME. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE PACIFIC LOW TO FILL
AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND UPPER
CA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SW, BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS TO NM BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IS RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CLOUD
LAYERS WITH A MIXED BAG OF MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM
AND THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME DETERIORATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT
MAY NOT RESULT IN A CHANGE OF FLIGHT RULES CATEGORY. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OVER THE STATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS FORECAST TO IMPACT KROW. AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IS PROVIDING
HIGH HUMIDITY AND AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT WITH A SMALLER
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL EXCEED CRITICAL
THRESHOLD FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NM, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND RAMP UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH VENT
RATES TRENDING DOWN AND BECOMING MOSTLY POOR BY SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING BRINGING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL RAMP BACK UP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION COMING BACK TO THE FORECAST
AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM NEAR SOCAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 51 28 51 / 60 60 0 0
DULCE........................... 29 47 21 54 / 70 90 0 0
CUBA............................ 33 48 23 54 / 50 70 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 51 19 56 / 50 40 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 48 26 57 / 50 40 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 53 20 59 / 30 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 51 24 62 / 10 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 36 55 31 57 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 51 28 58 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 29 62 23 66 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 63 25 68 / 20 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 29 41 21 50 / 50 80 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 47 30 51 / 40 60 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 51 28 58 / 10 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 46 26 52 / 10 50 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 38 22 46 / 10 40 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 44 16 52 / 10 50 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 49 21 54 / 20 50 0 0
MORA............................ 34 50 26 59 / 10 40 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 55 24 58 / 30 60 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 37 50 31 54 / 20 50 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 53 27 54 / 20 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 57 35 56 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 59 31 57 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 62 29 59 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 59 31 57 / 10 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 32 62 26 57 / 10 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 37 59 30 59 / 20 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 62 26 58 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 36 61 30 59 / 20 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 32 62 27 57 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 40 54 32 54 / 20 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 59 31 57 / 20 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 37 66 32 61 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 51 30 53 / 20 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 53 31 54 / 10 20 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 54 28 56 / 5 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 55 24 59 / 5 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 51 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 56 28 58 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 57 28 59 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 59 31 63 / 20 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 39 54 33 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 57 26 56 / 0 10 5 0
RATON........................... 29 59 24 57 / 0 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 60 23 60 / 0 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 55 27 59 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 66 33 61 / 0 10 10 0
ROY............................. 35 62 28 58 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 37 69 29 64 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 40 70 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 68 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 69 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 67 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 71 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 66 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 35 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ223-233.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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