847
FXUS65 KABQ 030710
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
110 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
- THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP BEGINNING
SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A QUIET AND MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY JULY NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR TODAY, THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO EXPAND
WESTWARD WITH A NEW DEVELOPING CENTROID OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM. VERY
DRY WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LEE TROUGH. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE, INDICATED BY PWATS AROUND
0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES, WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE (OUTSIDE OF THE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER CORES) DUE TO DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 40 TO 50 DEGREES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR EARLY JULY. ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF AROUND SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A SEASONABLY TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HOT INDEPENDENCE DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WITH A 593 TO 594 DAM 500 MB
MONSOON HIGH OVERHEAD. THE WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH WILL ALLOW
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE STATE WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 0.3 TO 0.5 INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
AND AROUND 0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
EVENING DURING FIREWORK SHOWS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH END QPF AMOUNTS FROM POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RUIDOSO
AREA LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.5 INCHES DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT FAIRLY DRY LOW
LEVELS AS INDICATED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A FORECASTED MCS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS THE NIGHT OF THE 4TH OF JULY WILL HELP BRING HIGHER MOISTURE
TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER
SOUTHERN CA AND AZ WILL HELP RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WETTER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MIDDAY
BEFORE MOVING INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM LATE SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE CLEARING SKIES
EARLY MONDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL FEEL EXACTLY LIKE EARLY JULY. THE
MONSOON HIGH WILL BE PRETTY MUCH BE OVERHEAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND MOVING EAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEXT WEEKEND. PWATS AROUND 0.7 TO 1 INCH
WILL HELP RESULT IN DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
AND EVERY DAY, FIRST FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY BEFORE
MOVING INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR AREA BURN SCARS
(I.E. RUIDOSO), LOW LYING, AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS IS TYPICAL
WITH THE MONSOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NM WILL BE DRIER IN NATURE DUE TO THE DRIER LOW LEVELS
WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST, AND POTENTIAL
ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE FIRE STARTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE STORMS WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK HEATING
UP TO LOW 90S TO AROUND 100 DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES MAY PRODUCE REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY THRU TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR KONM AND
KTCS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NM DUE TO A LONG PERIOD OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH BREEZY WEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
SMOKE FROM FIRES IN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN SOME
POORER AIR QUALITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM INDEPENDENCE
DAY DUE TO ANOTHER DAY OF A LONG PERIOD OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS OF BREEZY WINDS.
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE MONSOON HIGH GENERALLY OVERHEAD
NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN THE END OF NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING THE BIGGER THREAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 55 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 42 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 88 52 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 87 45 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 51 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 90 51 91 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 87 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 93 53 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 97 58 98 61 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 45 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 88 55 90 58 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 53 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 81 41 80 45 / 0 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 43 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 87 49 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 87 52 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 95 55 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 88 60 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 57 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 63 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 62 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 64 97 68 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 97 61 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 96 63 98 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 60 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 61 97 64 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 92 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 63 97 67 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 100 69 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 59 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 52 94 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 57 89 58 / 0 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 59 93 59 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 61 91 61 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 94 66 / 0 0 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 86 61 87 61 / 20 0 50 0
CAPULIN......................... 89 54 87 53 / 0 0 5 20
RATON........................... 93 52 91 54 / 0 0 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 94 53 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 55 91 59 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 97 65 95 62 / 0 0 5 30
ROY............................. 93 59 92 60 / 0 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 100 65 100 65 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 64 96 65 / 0 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 69 101 68 / 0 0 5 30
CLOVIS.......................... 97 68 98 68 / 0 0 10 10
PORTALES........................ 97 69 99 69 / 0 0 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 68 99 68 / 0 0 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 98 71 100 72 / 0 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 94 64 96 65 / 10 0 30 0
ELK............................. 92 62 93 62 / 20 0 40 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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