113
FXUS65 KABQ 231118 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
418 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED TODAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAKE A LONG AWAITED RETURN LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN SPREAD EAST
INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
BELOW 10,000FT WITH ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED TO
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BEHIND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
PER THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS, THE UPPER HIGH WAS OVER FAR WEST
TX AT NEAR 589DAM AT 500MB. THE KABQ 00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED
A 500MB HEIGHT OF 586DAM, WHICH WAS 1 DECAMETER AWAY FROM TYING A
DAILY RECORD. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA TODAY, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND ONCE AGAIN CHALLENGING DAILY RECORDS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE EAST TO OVER THE UPPER GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF OF THE WEST
COAST TAPS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND POUNDS CA AND THE GREAT BASIN.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BRING
PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PWATS THAT WILL RISE
TO NEAR DAILY RECORDS. A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ENSUE, WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING BRINGING INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
HOWEVER, THE FORCING ISN'T NOTABLY STRONG AND WITH VERY HIGH SNOW
LEVELS OF 10-11KFT, NO WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER PROVIDED BY THE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING PROCESS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS
TO WESTERLY WINDS PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
PWATS WILL BEGIN TO TREND BACK DOWN CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT A
RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME-BY
OUTSIDE OF OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SO UNFORTUNATELY, CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS ARE
ZILCH UNLESS YOU LIVE HIGH UP IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH ONLY VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON CHRISTMAS DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM WESTERLY WINDS.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH
FILLS AND MOVES INLAND. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BUT ALL OF THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ALSO AGREE ON A STRONGER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND, BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND SATURDAY, BUT WORTHY OF NOTE THAT THE 00Z
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A REX BLOCK
TAKES SHAPE OFFSHORE OF OR/CA. WE'LL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT FOR THAT
PATTERN TO BREAK-DOWN BEFORE NOTABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC
MOISTURE ADVECTION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL BE TOO HIGH
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND AND BRING MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA, BUT WILL TANK THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME MOSTLY POOR BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 40 57 43 / 0 10 10 40
DULCE........................... 63 29 56 34 / 0 5 20 50
CUBA............................ 61 35 58 37 / 0 0 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 66 32 56 37 / 0 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 66 36 56 38 / 0 5 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 68 32 61 35 / 0 0 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 67 36 58 39 / 0 0 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 68 43 62 43 / 0 0 5 10
DATIL........................... 65 38 58 40 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 70 32 62 37 / 0 5 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 76 35 66 38 / 0 10 40 40
CHAMA........................... 57 30 50 33 / 0 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 39 56 40 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 64 37 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 37 56 39 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 52 33 48 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 26 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 63 27 59 34 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 66 36 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 66 32 63 37 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 63 40 59 42 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 35 60 39 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 45 63 47 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 40 64 43 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 38 66 41 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 40 64 43 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 67 33 65 38 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 68 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 69 33 65 37 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 67 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 65 43 61 44 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 40 58 41 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 64 41 60 42 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 36 60 40 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 30 63 34 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 37 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 67 39 63 41 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 39 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 67 44 64 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 36 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 32 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 30 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 38 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 73 44 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 70 36 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 75 37 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 39 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 39 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 78 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 79 38 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 77 38 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 75 36 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 76 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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