245
FXUS65 KABQ 071132 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON
AREA BURN SCARS EACH DAY. A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A 594DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY
WITH A THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND NEAR-NORMAL PWAT AIRMASS DRAPED FROM
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS NM. STRONG HEATING IN A
MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL HELP STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING. STORMS WILL THEN MOVE
ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND WEST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS ON
STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THRU THE EARLY EVENING. DCAPE IS STILL
AVERAGING 500-1000 J/KG WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
SO BOUNDARIES MAY PRODUCE GUSTS >40 MPH. SMALL FOOTPRINTS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS >1" ARE POSSIBLE BASED ON 6-HR HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE
LPMM PRECIP AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF.
THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL ELONGATE WESTWARD WHILE BUILDING TO
NEAR 596DM OFF THE SOCAL COAST WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS
AND THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES FOR STORMS TO FORM OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING BUT STEERING FLOW WILL INSTEAD
GUIDE STORMS ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND
VALLEYS, INCLUDING MORE OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM. QPF
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1" FROM STRONGER CELLS ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NM WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED 40-50KT SPEED MAX MOVES THRU CO. A DOWNTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE IS LIKELY, EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM MAY BECOME ORGANIZED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE SPEED MAX FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHERN CO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE HOTTER WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS
IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THERE
IS A >75% CHANCE OF REACHING 100F IN THE MIDDLE RGV AND EASTERN
PLAINS OF NM, EXCEPT ROSWELL WHERE THERE IS A 20-40% OF REACHING
105F.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE PATTERN
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. A 100-120KT SPEED MAX
OVER THE ALEUTIANS WILL ROUND A 599DM H5 HIGH OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND HELP TO CARVE OUT A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL KICK THE H5 HIGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE AREA
OF ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC WILL ASSIST BUILDING THE GREAT PLAINS HIGH INTO A MASSIVE
+3 STANDARD DEVIATION H5 RIDGE (~598DM) OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN MAY HELP TO OPEN THE
DOOR TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS COMPLEX
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. HOWEVER, CHANCES ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN 11AM AND 1PM
THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET. DIRECT HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS NEAR 35KT, BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, PATCHY BLDU,
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE
EVENING WITHIN THE RGV FROM NEAR KSAF TO KABQ AND KONM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. STORMS WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
NEARBY HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL NM. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE SLOW
AND ERRATIC TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THEN SLOW AND ERRATIC TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY. STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE DRIER
WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE RAINFALL. MUCH DRIER AND
HOTTER WEATHER WILL SPREAD TO MORE OF NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
EXCEPT NORTHEAST NM WHERE STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHWEST NM EACH DAY MAY PRODUCE A
FEW HOURS WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. MOISTURE MAY
SURGE BACK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORM CHANCES ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR NEXT
WEEK AS EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO SPREAD NORTHWEST INTO
MORE OF NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 97 65 98 63 / 0 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 92 50 94 49 / 20 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 91 57 92 58 / 20 30 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 92 56 93 57 / 20 10 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 86 57 87 57 / 40 10 40 5
GRANTS.......................... 90 56 92 57 / 40 10 40 5
QUEMADO......................... 88 59 89 59 / 50 20 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 87 64 89 64 / 30 30 40 10
DATIL........................... 85 59 86 60 / 60 20 60 10
RESERVE......................... 92 54 94 54 / 60 30 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 96 58 98 58 / 60 20 50 10
CHAMA........................... 84 48 86 48 / 40 10 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 62 87 63 / 40 30 40 20
PECOS........................... 88 55 91 56 / 40 20 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 55 87 55 / 40 30 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 75 47 77 48 / 50 40 40 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 43 82 42 / 60 30 60 20
TAOS............................ 88 53 89 52 / 30 20 20 10
MORA............................ 83 53 86 54 / 50 30 50 10
ESPANOLA........................ 94 60 96 61 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 88 61 90 62 / 30 20 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 58 93 59 / 20 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 66 98 66 / 20 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 65 97 66 / 10 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 63 99 65 / 10 30 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 66 98 67 / 10 30 10 20
BELEN........................... 98 63 99 64 / 5 30 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 97 65 99 66 / 10 30 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 61 98 62 / 10 20 5 10
CORRALES........................ 97 65 99 66 / 10 30 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 62 98 64 / 10 20 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 92 66 94 67 / 20 30 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 66 98 67 / 10 20 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 99 70 101 71 / 5 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 61 91 62 / 30 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 90 61 92 62 / 30 30 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 58 92 59 / 30 30 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 54 94 54 / 30 30 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 57 89 57 / 30 30 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 59 92 60 / 20 30 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 60 90 61 / 10 30 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 91 65 93 67 / 20 5 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 85 59 86 61 / 20 5 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 86 56 88 54 / 20 10 40 20
RATON........................... 91 53 93 53 / 20 20 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 92 55 93 55 / 20 20 30 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 56 89 56 / 40 20 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 64 97 63 / 0 10 20 20
ROY............................. 89 61 92 60 / 5 10 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 97 66 100 66 / 0 10 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 64 96 64 / 0 10 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 69 99 69 / 0 0 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 94 67 96 68 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 68 98 69 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 68 98 68 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 98 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 93 64 94 65 / 0 0 10 10
ELK............................. 88 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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