674  
FXUS65 KABQ 131957  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
157 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
VERY HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY WILL LEAD TO A FEW RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO A  
FEW LUCKY FOLKS THROUGH THE EVENING BUT VERY GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.  
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NM FRIDAY WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER  
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM WHERE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY  
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AREAWIDE. HEAT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ONCE  
AGAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH VERY DRY, HOT, AND WINDY WEATHER FOR  
SEVERAL DAYS POSSIBLE. EXTREMELY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY OCCUR WITH  
THIS SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALMOST SQUARELY OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH SOARING HEIGHTS REACHING NEAR 596 DECAMETERS AT 500 MB AND  
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ENCROACHING UPON RECORD DAILY HIGHS. A WEAK  
SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE IS PRESENT OVER FAR EASTERN NM WHERE SOME  
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ARE TRYING TO GO UP, BUT EVEN ON THE MOIST SIDE  
OF THE BOUNDARY THERE IS STILL VERY LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT  
DEPRESSIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90’S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER  
50’S AND LOW 60’S. THIS WILL KEEP STORMS SPARSE OVER THE FAR EASTERN  
TIER OF NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH MAINLY A DOWNBURST WIND THREAT  
RATHER THAN ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. ANEMIC CUMULUS ARE ALSO TRYING  
TO GO UP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, BUT ARE EVEN MORE LIMITED DUE  
TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND A SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AS  
SEEN ON THIS MORNING’S ABQ SOUNDING AROUND 450 MB.  
 
UPSTREAM, OUR UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY INCHING TOWARD THE TIJUANA  
AREA, AND SHOULD DRAW IN SOME MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAINT  
DIVERGENCE TO WESTERN NM LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS  
FEATURE SHOULD LIFT INTO SOUTHERN CO AS A WEAKER OPEN WAVE, BUT  
SHOULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO LEAD TO A NOTABLE REDUCTION IN  
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. PWATS WILL RISE TO NEAR 1.0  
INCH ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE WESTERN  
AREAS PEAK NEAR 0.7 TO 0.9 FOR A BRIEF TIME. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL  
INCREASE WITH MEAN 700-500 MB LAYER WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 15 TO 30  
KT, AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING AT A BRISK PACE  
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY MITIGATE THE FLASH FLOODING  
THREAT OVER THE HPCC BURN SCAR, AND THERE ARE NO PLANS OF ISSUING A  
WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WOULD LIKELY BE THE AREA  
OF FOCUS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 OR MORE ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT NBM QPF PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH  
OF RAINFALL ARE ALL LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AROUND THE SANGRES, SO THIS  
WAS ANOTHER CONSIDERATION. THE FV3 WAS THE LONE CAM THAT ADVERTISES  
MORE CONCERNING AMOUNTS, BUT GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES OVERDUE  
DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION, HAVE OPTED TO DISCOUNT THIS AS AN OUTLIER. A  
COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE  
PLAINS, MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
MOST OF THE CONVECTION WOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A  
FEW EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES RETAINING STORMS INTO EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY MORNING  
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
MAX TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES WITH VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR  
MID JUNE. IT WILL BE VERY DRY ONCE AGAIN BUT SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS  
AND PERHAPS A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER NORTHEAST NM.  
 
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER EACH  
DAY WITH A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IN PLACE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY  
HOT TEMPS AND EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY. A COUPLE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY  
BE REQUIRED AS WELL. FIRE DANGER MAY BE EXTREMELY HIGH DURING THIS  
PERIOD GIVEN THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS AFTER LIGHTNING  
STRIKES POSSIBLE TOMORROW.  
 
MANY EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN EXTENSIVE UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
DEEP-LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THEN ALLOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE  
TO SURGE NORTHWEST INTO NM WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU THE  
END OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO TODAY, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE  
READINGS THAT COULD POSE POOR AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE ISSUES. HIGH-  
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT ONLY A FEW  
SPARSE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE OR SURVIVE, MAINLY INTO THE  
FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE  
PRONE TO GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ONLY VERY SMALL AREAS OF  
RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY  
MORNING AS THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC STORM CROSS NORTH OF THE  
STATE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE APPRECIABLE  
RAINFALL, BUT STILL VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
WIDESPREAD HOT TEMPERATURES ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. WHILE SOME DEEPER LOW LAYER MOISTURE IS  
PRESENT IN FAR EASTERN NM, THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL  
RELIEF EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXCEPT IN VERY SMALL, ISOLATED  
EASTERN SPOTS. ALONG WITH THE HEAT COMES HIGH INSTABILITY (HIGH  
HAINES INDICES FROM STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES AND VERY DRY AIR  
IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE) AND ALSO THE THREAT FOR DRY  
LIGHTNING, AS THE RAINFALL WILL BE SO ISOLATED. WHILE IT WILL BE  
SHORT-LIVED, THERE IS RELIEF ON THE WAY FRIDAY, AS A PACIFIC LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK INTO SOUTHERN CO, DRAGGING MORE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS INTO NM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE  
RAINFALL, BUT AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MORE THAN A TENTH  
OF AN INCH WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD  
INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. MODERATELY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY  
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH PASSING STORMS STIRRING UP  
STRONGER GUSTS, AND THIS COULD PERK UP ANY ONGOING FIRES IN THE  
AREA. THE INCOMING SHOWERS, STORMS AND ASSOCIATED HUMIDITY WILL KEEP  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT BAY ON FRIDAY, BUT MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST  
OF OUR AREA COULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.  
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OF FRIDAY WILL FADE QUICKLY WITH REBOUNDING  
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY CLOSER  
TO NORMAL MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL  
TURN STRONGER WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY THAT COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED  
OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN NM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 66 85 54 94 / 20 50 10 0  
DULCE........................... 50 78 41 88 / 5 40 20 0  
CUBA............................ 57 77 48 87 / 10 60 20 5  
GALLUP.......................... 54 83 46 92 / 20 60 10 0  
EL MORRO........................ 54 79 46 87 / 20 70 10 0  
GRANTS.......................... 57 80 47 90 / 20 80 20 0  
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 49 89 / 20 60 10 0  
MAGDALENA....................... 62 83 57 89 / 10 60 20 5  
DATIL........................... 58 82 51 87 / 20 60 20 5  
RESERVE......................... 52 90 46 94 / 20 40 5 0  
GLENWOOD........................ 67 95 59 97 / 20 30 0 0  
CHAMA........................... 49 72 42 82 / 5 70 20 10  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 78 56 84 / 5 80 40 10  
PECOS........................... 59 82 52 86 / 5 80 60 10  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 76 45 81 / 0 80 50 20  
RED RIVER....................... 43 70 42 73 / 5 80 50 20  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 73 35 78 / 5 80 50 10  
TAOS............................ 54 81 46 85 / 0 70 40 10  
MORA............................ 53 77 47 83 / 5 90 50 20  
ESPANOLA........................ 62 86 53 91 / 0 70 40 5  
SANTA FE........................ 64 81 54 86 / 5 80 50 10  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 84 52 90 / 5 70 40 5  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 85 60 92 / 5 60 40 5  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 86 62 94 / 5 60 30 0  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 88 54 96 / 5 50 30 0  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 86 60 94 / 5 50 30 0  
BELEN........................... 65 90 57 96 / 10 50 30 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 66 87 58 95 / 5 50 30 0  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 89 53 95 / 10 50 30 5  
CORRALES........................ 65 87 57 95 / 5 50 30 0  
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 89 55 96 / 10 50 30 5  
PLACITAS........................ 66 84 57 91 / 5 60 40 5  
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 86 60 94 / 5 50 30 0  
SOCORRO......................... 70 93 63 98 / 10 50 30 5  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 80 55 86 / 5 60 40 5  
TIJERAS......................... 64 82 56 88 / 5 60 40 5  
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 82 53 89 / 5 70 40 5  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 84 49 90 / 5 70 50 5  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 79 52 85 / 5 70 60 10  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 84 53 89 / 10 60 50 5  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 86 53 89 / 10 70 50 10  
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 91 62 93 / 10 60 50 10  
RUIDOSO......................... 54 83 53 87 / 10 70 50 20  
CAPULIN......................... 55 82 51 84 / 10 80 50 20  
RATON........................... 58 84 52 88 / 5 80 50 10  
SPRINGER........................ 58 86 53 90 / 5 80 50 20  
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 79 51 85 / 5 80 60 10  
CLAYTON......................... 63 89 61 91 / 20 50 60 20  
ROY............................. 61 85 57 88 / 10 70 60 20  
CONCHAS......................... 67 93 61 95 / 10 50 70 10  
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 88 59 92 / 5 60 60 10  
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 93 61 94 / 20 30 70 10  
CLOVIS.......................... 68 94 64 93 / 20 20 70 10  
PORTALES........................ 68 95 63 95 / 20 20 60 10  
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 94 63 95 / 10 40 70 10  
ROSWELL......................... 73 100 70 101 / 20 20 40 10  
PICACHO......................... 67 92 61 94 / 10 50 50 20  
ELK............................. 64 91 57 93 / 20 50 50 20  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-209-218>221-  
225-238.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...52  
LONG TERM....42  
AVIATION...52  
 
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