212
FXUS65 KABQ 011128 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY WITH MORE SPARSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS UP 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE BELOW CANYONS INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
A LOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC HAS CROSSED THE BAJA, AND IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE BOOTHEEL OF NM AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE
THE POLAR JET FEEDS ANOTHER BROADER TROUGH CLOSER TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL, MOIST AIRMASS
THAT IS SEEPING INTO NM FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TODAY. NORTHEASTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH A SECONDARY AREA
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, AND THESE AREAS WILL BE MERGING
AND FILLING IN WITH LIGHT STRATIFORM BATCHES BETWEEN 3 AM AND DAWN.
ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET WILL OBSERVE A MORNING AND
OVERNIGHT MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE TRENDING MORE
TOWARD SNOW. SNOW WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS BEING THE PRIMARY RANGE FOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE TUSAS SHOULD START TO STACK UP A FEW INCHES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DROPPING BRIEF ISOLATED HEAVY
RATES. THIS IS PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THERE. THE RAIN IN THE EASTERN HALF IS PROJECTED TO TURN LIGHTER
WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT DESTABILIZATION IN
WESTERN ZONES WILL EXPLOIT THE RECENTLY FOUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG A NORTH-
SOUTH AXIS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RAINFALL IN THE WESTERN
ZONES WILL BE SPOTTY WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS, BUT A FEW HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH.
THIS CONVECTION WILL CARRY ON THROUGH THE EVENING, SLOWLY
DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MOST WESTERN ZONES.
SATURDAY'S UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TURNS MESSY, AS THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO NM AS A WEAK LOW CIRCULATION
WHILE A BROADER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES STATES. MEAGER, BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE CONSIDERABLE GAINS WITH MOST
AREAS OBSERVING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES
WHICH WILL GET INSOLATION AGAIN. HOWEVER, ALL AREAS WILL STILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN A BIT MORE WESTERLY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FLATTENS AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW
APPROACHES THE CA COAST. DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE 20'S AND 30'S
(DEG F) ON SUNDAY, SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, AND LOW INSTABILITY WITH
LI'S OF -1 TO-2 C WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN, ALBEIT WITH LESS SPATIAL COVERAGE. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD TEND TO INITIALIZE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN AGAIN, BUT THE SPATIAL EXTENT CREEPING NORTHWARD FROM
SATURDAY. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO,
AND THIS WILL KICK UP SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
(GUSTS MOSTLY AT 20 TO 25 MPH).
INTO MONDAY, THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CA WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT OVER NM WHILE THE LEE-SIDE CYCLONE SETTLES INTO WESTERN OK.
THIS WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT
HIGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOTS OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD, AND
THIS COULD POSE VERTICAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING LIMITATIONS. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, DEWPOINTS ARE PROJECTED
TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WOULD THEN TREK OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN ON TUESDAY,
SPREADING SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIP INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NM WHILE NORTHEASTERN ZONES POTENTIALLY GET GRAZED BY A
CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM TUESDAY. PIECES OF
ENERGY FROM THE CA LOW WOULD THEN MOVE FARTHER EAST OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN MODEL INDICATIONS OF ADDITIONAL
PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OF NM, AND THIS IS
KEEPING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POP FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND MORE-SO
FOR THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ALL HAVE
INDICATIONS OF THESE PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST OF NM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. FOR NOW MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STATISTICALLY
FAVORING THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING TO CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES ON THURSDAY WITH OVERALL LOW
PROBABILITIES ON BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SNOW WILL
MIX WITH RAIN AT ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 7,000 TO 8,000 FEET, TURNING
MORE CONSISTENTLY TO SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS (BELOW 3,000 FT) AND VISIBILITY (BELOW 5 SM) WILL BE
COMMON IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
IFR CEILINGS (BELOW 1,000 FT) AND VISIBILITY (BELOW 3 SM). AREAS
OBSERVING SNOW WILL BE MORE PRONE TO IFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY REDUCE AND DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST, BUT
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. WESTERN AREAS WILL START TO SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH LIGHTNING, BRIEF ISOLATED DOWNPOURS,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ACCOMPANYING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
COOL, MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN UNFOLDING WHILE WET SNOW ACCUMULATES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ELIMINATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
THE EASTERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, AND MORE-SO INTO THE EVENING IN
EASTERN ZONES, BUT WESTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL AREAS OF WETTING RAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY,
INCHING UP A FEW MORE DEGREES SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY STAYING
IN A 20-35% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL START
TO TURN MORE BREEZY ON SUNDAY, BUT NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
IS FORESEEN.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY DUE TO AN UPSTREAM CA
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOTH WINDS AND RH WILL BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE,
NOT QUITE REACHING THRESHOLDS FOR WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
AND THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS ABOUT INEFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING THAT
MAY STUNT WIND GUST POTENTIAL. ON TUESDAY, WINDS APPEAR BE STRONGEST
IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM AS THE LOW APPROACHES CLOSER, AND AGAIN
THIS WILL LIKELY POSE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, MAINLY FOR
CENTRAL NM (SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA). LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXIST ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY WINDS LOOK TO REDUCE WITH NORTHERN ZONES BEING THE MOST
LIKELY RECIPIENTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 70 41 70 44 / 10 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 61 27 66 28 / 60 50 20 5
CUBA............................ 59 31 62 35 / 50 40 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 66 31 67 35 / 20 20 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 62 35 61 38 / 40 40 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 62 33 64 35 / 50 30 30 10
QUEMADO......................... 64 37 64 39 / 30 20 50 10
MAGDALENA....................... 56 38 60 43 / 50 50 40 20
DATIL........................... 58 37 59 40 / 60 60 60 20
RESERVE......................... 71 37 68 37 / 30 40 40 5
GLENWOOD........................ 76 39 73 41 / 20 30 30 5
CHAMA........................... 54 25 58 28 / 80 70 40 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 36 59 41 / 80 50 40 10
PECOS........................... 48 29 60 33 / 70 50 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 28 58 34 / 80 70 40 5
RED RIVER....................... 41 21 48 28 / 80 70 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 17 52 22 / 80 70 40 10
TAOS............................ 55 27 60 29 / 80 70 40 10
MORA............................ 43 25 57 30 / 90 60 40 10
ESPANOLA........................ 61 36 67 38 / 70 50 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 52 34 59 39 / 60 50 50 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 33 62 38 / 60 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 41 64 47 / 50 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 40 66 44 / 40 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 39 67 43 / 40 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 41 68 46 / 40 30 30 10
BELEN........................... 63 38 69 40 / 40 30 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 61 39 68 44 / 40 30 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 36 68 39 / 40 30 30 10
CORRALES........................ 61 39 69 44 / 40 30 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 38 68 41 / 40 30 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 56 40 63 45 / 50 30 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 40 69 45 / 40 30 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 43 67 44 / 50 40 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 35 61 41 / 60 30 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 52 36 62 41 / 60 30 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 32 62 35 / 70 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 29 63 30 / 70 30 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 31 58 36 / 80 30 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 33 62 36 / 70 30 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 33 60 37 / 80 30 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 40 62 43 / 90 30 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 46 34 56 37 / 100 30 40 5
CAPULIN......................... 45 26 58 31 / 90 30 10 0
RATON........................... 50 25 63 29 / 80 30 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 28 64 30 / 90 40 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 29 59 33 / 90 40 30 5
CLAYTON......................... 54 35 68 43 / 100 20 10 0
ROY............................. 47 31 62 36 / 100 30 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 52 34 68 39 / 100 30 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 34 64 37 / 90 20 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 36 71 43 / 90 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 38 67 43 / 90 30 10 0
PORTALES........................ 54 38 68 41 / 90 30 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 36 67 38 / 100 20 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 43 66 43 / 100 30 10 0
PICACHO......................... 51 38 62 38 / 100 30 20 5
ELK............................. 50 34 59 35 / 100 50 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR NMZ210.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ213>215.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ227.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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