729
FXUS65 KABQ 251150 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- ONGOING AREAL FLOODING IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM WILL SEE
CLEARING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS THREATEN SECONDARY FLASH FLOODING TODAY.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE CONTINUES AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
TODAY, BUT STILL WITH A CONTINUED MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN ANOTHER STRETCH
OF INCREASED FLASH FLOODING RISK POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ONGOING FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER AREAS OF
EASTERN LINCOLN, CHAVES, DE BACA, ROOSEVELT, CURRY, AND QUAY
COUNTIES WHERE MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME
LOCALIZED SPOTS NEAR LINCOLN, NM, AND A SWATH ACROSS ROOSEVELT AND
CURRY COUNTIES HAVE SEEN UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MUCH OF THE RAIN OVER THESE AREAS HAS BECOME MOSTLY STRATIFORM AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE IN NATURE OVER THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER, RADAR AND
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PICKED UP ON ANOTHER MESO-VORTICITY FEATURE
ROTATING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL NM NEAR EL PASO TO LAS
CRUCES. THIS NEXT FEATURE IS ON A NNE/NE TRACK WITH HI-RES CAMS
SHOWING IT BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THESE ALREADY SOAKED AND FLOODED AREAS TONIGHT. THE
PRIME TIME PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING TO AREAS FROM RUIDOSO TO
ROSWELL FROM 2AM TO 3AM MDT, AND ONWARD TO PORTALES AND CLOVIS BY
4AM TO 7AM MDT, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR ON EITHER SIDE. DUE TO ALREADY
HEAVY RAINS, AND POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE AN DANGEROUS OVERNIGHT
FLASH FLOODING EVENT WITH RAPID RISES, LOCALS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
BE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS. HEED LOCAL AUTHORITIES, AND ONLY TRAVEL IF ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY. THESE AREAS LOOK TO SEE RAIN CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA
WEST TO EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH WITH SPORADIC SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY STILL. A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HERE WOULD CLEARLY DISRUPT OR EXACERBATE ANY
RECOVERY OPERATIONS.
AREAS OVER CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND WESTERN NM WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT WITH CELLS GENERALLY
MOVING N/NE. THE WIDER SPACES BETWEEN THESE CELLS AND FASTER
MOVEMENT WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL A NON-ZERO RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
HITTING AREAS THAT DO GET HIT MULTIPLE TIMES, ARE ALREADY INUNDATED,
OR ARE POORLY DRAINED. IN PARTICULAR, A BATCH OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS WHITE SANDS AREA LOOKS TO
PROGRESS UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, REACHING PLACES ACROSS SOCORRO
COUNTY AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ABQ METRO BY 2AM TO 6AM MDT, LIKELY
PETERING OUT BY THE SANTA FE METRO. SCATTERED STORMS CURRENTLY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NM ALSO LOOK TO PROGRESS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN NM AND NAVAJO NATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
THE EARLY PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, THE UPPER LOW OVER AZ WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER
PLAYER AS IT SHIFTS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH
AT A LESSER COVERAGE, THESE STORMS WILL STILL POSE A MARGINAL RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING IF HITTING THE WRONG SENSITIVE AREAS. A SLIGHT
RISK DOES EXIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM WHERE THE MOST SENSITIVE AREAS
WILL LIKELY SEE FLASH FLOODING EVEN FROM ONE STORM GIVEN THE CURRENT
ONGOING FLOODING.
SATURDAY SEES MUCH NEEDED AND WELCOMED CLEARING CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT MAJOR MONSOONAL
PLUME ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEPENDING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CA, AND WITH
HURRICANE POLO APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA. STORMS WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NM.
MONDAY SEES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSE OFF TO A 563DM H5 LOW OVER
CENTRAL CA, PULLING UP HURRICANE POLO AND ITS ASSOCIATED ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MIDWAY UP THE BAJA COAST. THIS WILL BRING NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF NM. GIVEN
THE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR, SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE A
SEVERE WEATHER COMPONENT ALONGSIDE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NM
NONSTOP THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE H5 LOW TRACKS ACROSS
AZ, ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF POLO MOVING ASHORE NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. DEPENDING ON HOW THE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM ABSORPTION
OCCURS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NM MAY PERSIST AS LONG
AS FRIDAY. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EVEN HIGHER. THIS WILL EXACERBATE ANY FLASH
FLOODING IMPACTS LEFTOVER FROM THIS WEEK'S EVENT, PRODUCE RISES ON
AREA TRIBUTARIES, STREAMS, AND RIVERS. IF NOT ALREADY PREPPED FROM
THE CURRENT ONGOING WEATHER, NOW IS THE TIME TO DOUBLE-CHECK YOUR
EMERGENCY PLANS AND BE WEATHER AWARE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM CONTINUE IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, WHILE ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG AND MIST
ARE BRINGING IFR/LIFR TO A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
LIKE KAXX. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY NECESSARY AMDS AT KSAF,
KABQ, KGUP, AND KFMN THIS MORNING AS CLEARING SKIES HAVE MOVED
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY, MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE
BRINGING LOCALIZED AND BRIEF IMPACTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1214 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AS ABUNDANT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. ASIDE FROM SATURDAY'S
DRIER CONDITIONS, EACH DAY HAS NOTABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE. MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH FLOODING,
NOTABLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 75 51 79 52 / 40 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 68 40 75 40 / 60 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 46 72 47 / 60 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 45 78 46 / 30 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 69 43 72 45 / 40 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 71 45 78 47 / 50 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 71 47 74 49 / 30 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 52 74 53 / 50 30 0 0
DATIL........................... 68 47 72 48 / 40 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 49 79 50 / 30 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 80 55 83 56 / 20 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 62 40 69 41 / 80 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 50 73 51 / 60 30 5 0
PECOS........................... 68 47 73 48 / 50 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 44 71 45 / 60 40 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 58 38 62 37 / 50 30 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 35 68 31 / 50 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 69 43 75 43 / 50 30 0 0
MORA............................ 69 44 73 45 / 50 20 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 74 50 77 50 / 50 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 69 50 74 50 / 60 30 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 50 76 49 / 60 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 56 78 56 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 56 80 57 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 56 81 56 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 57 80 56 / 50 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 75 55 78 54 / 50 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 55 79 55 / 50 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 54 79 54 / 40 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 56 80 55 / 50 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 55 78 55 / 40 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 73 55 78 55 / 50 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 56 77 55 / 50 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 57 81 58 / 50 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 51 71 51 / 50 40 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 69 52 72 53 / 50 40 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 71 50 74 49 / 50 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 47 77 45 / 50 30 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 51 74 51 / 50 30 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 51 74 50 / 50 30 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 51 73 50 / 50 30 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 56 76 56 / 50 30 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 51 74 52 / 60 20 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 48 74 50 / 30 20 0 0
RATON........................... 71 46 80 48 / 40 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 74 47 79 47 / 50 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 47 76 48 / 50 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 73 56 82 56 / 70 10 0 0
ROY............................. 70 51 78 52 / 60 20 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 78 58 85 56 / 80 30 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 58 82 56 / 60 30 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 59 86 56 / 80 20 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 75 60 84 59 / 80 40 0 0
PORTALES........................ 77 61 85 60 / 80 40 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 59 85 58 / 60 30 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 61 88 60 / 50 30 5 0
PICACHO......................... 76 56 82 57 / 70 30 5 0
ELK............................. 76 52 81 54 / 50 20 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226-235-236-238>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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