183
FXUS65 KABQ 101824
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1224 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MOSTLY THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL DEVELOP.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL TURN MORE SPOTTY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEAR GHOSTLY REMNANTS OF WHAT IS LEFT
OF TC RACHEL BEING ABSORBED INTO THE 568DM H5 LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM SOCAL TO AZ, AND INTO SOUTHERN NV AND
UT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO REACH INTO WESTERN NM THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL NOT HAVE MORE APPRECIABLE COVERAGE UNTIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS AND A QUICK PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST COMMON HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
PASSING CELLS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIDE BACK WEST AS THE BY THEN FULLY FUSED
REMNANT TROUGH OF RACHEL EJECTS NORTHWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEEP LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC TROUGHING PATTERN DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST. MUCH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOME EXPANSION OF FAST MOVING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BACK EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL TRY TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF UPPING THOSE GUSTS TO THE 50 MPH MARK,
MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MONDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CONTINUED ROUNDS OF FAST
MOVING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FLOWING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NM AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A NOTABLE DRYSLOT CONTINUING TO SHUTDOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE AMONGST GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL SUITES
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGHING PATTERN CLOSING OFF EITHER TO
ONE OR TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NV AND CA. THIS
DOESN'T HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER NM THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT DOES END UP CAUSING LARGE DOWNSTREAM
DIVERGENCES AMONGST VARIOUS MODEL RUNS. WHICHEVER DIRECTION THE
UPPER LOW ENDS UP TAKING, THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON FAVOR A
PROGRESSION OVER THE TX BIG BEND AREA, CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN NM
WEDNESDAY.
THE 12Z GFS, MANY ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AI RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ALL FAVOR THE H5 CLOSED LOW OPENING AND BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, TREKKING EASTWARD OVER CO. THIS SETUP
FEATURES A CLASSIC FALL COLD FRONT SWEEPING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH AND WEST THRU EASTERN NM THEREAFTER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, REPLENISHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CURRENTLY
LESS LIKELY SCENARIO ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE H5 LOW CUTTING OFF AND RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD
NORTHERN AZ OR FURTHER WEST. THIS BRINGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
BACKING INTO EASTERN NM LATE WEEK FURTHER WEST WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTENT BEHIND IT ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES BREAK OUT ACROSS MOSTLY THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM AS A RESULT IN THIS SCENARIO. IT'S A LOWER
PROBABILITY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, BUT WORTH MENTIONING GIVEN THE
SHARP CHANGE IN FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN IT WOULD BRING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH EASTERN NM AS THICKER
CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPORADIC SHOWER ACTIVITY BEGINS TO ENTER
WESTERN NM LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD THRU WESTERN NM, REACHING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AND
PROB30S ARE INCLUDED AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF SITES FOR THIS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY DOES SHIFT BACK WEST SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE IT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NM AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE TC RACHEL AND LARGER SCALE STORM
SYSTEM DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC COASTLINE WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND MOISTURE TO WESTERN NM TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. EASTERN NM LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE SIMON MOVES THROUGH THE TX BIG BEND AREA,
CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERN
NM IS SEEING STRONGER WINDIER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR
ELEVATED CONDITIONS TODAY AND EACH AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER, CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS FAVOR A SWEEPING FALL COLD FRONT
MOVING THRU THE AREA WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE WITH SOME MOISTURE BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BACKING INTO EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BE FAVORED. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE SCENARIO FOR MUCH HIGHER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES LINGERING OVER MOST OF THE STATE TO END
NEXT WEEK, SO BURNING INTERESTS THIS FAR OUT SHOULD STAY TUNED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 76 53 72 / 60 40 40 10
DULCE........................... 45 71 42 66 / 70 70 90 30
CUBA............................ 50 70 46 68 / 40 40 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 49 72 45 68 / 30 50 40 10
EL MORRO........................ 46 70 43 67 / 30 30 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 50 73 47 72 / 30 40 30 10
QUEMADO......................... 50 71 46 69 / 30 20 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 54 73 50 73 / 20 20 30 10
DATIL........................... 48 69 46 68 / 20 20 30 10
RESERVE......................... 50 71 49 69 / 30 80 60 20
GLENWOOD........................ 55 76 53 74 / 40 80 70 40
CHAMA........................... 45 63 42 59 / 70 80 90 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 70 51 69 / 30 20 50 10
PECOS........................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 20 60 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 68 46 65 / 30 20 70 10
RED RIVER....................... 41 60 40 56 / 30 20 70 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 67 38 64 / 20 10 50 10
TAOS............................ 47 71 45 68 / 30 20 60 10
MORA............................ 47 71 44 70 / 10 10 40 5
ESPANOLA........................ 53 78 51 76 / 20 20 40 5
SANTA FE........................ 54 73 52 70 / 30 20 60 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 75 51 73 / 20 20 50 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 80 58 78 / 20 10 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 80 56 79 / 20 10 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 82 56 81 / 20 10 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 80 57 79 / 30 20 30 5
BELEN........................... 57 81 55 81 / 10 10 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 58 81 57 80 / 20 20 30 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 81 54 81 / 20 10 30 5
CORRALES........................ 58 82 57 80 / 30 20 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 81 55 81 / 20 10 30 5
PLACITAS........................ 58 78 57 76 / 20 20 40 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 80 57 79 / 30 20 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 59 83 56 82 / 10 10 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 73 51 71 / 20 20 50 10
TIJERAS......................... 55 75 53 73 / 10 10 40 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 76 51 74 / 10 10 40 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 77 49 76 / 10 10 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 74 52 72 / 5 10 40 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 74 51 73 / 10 10 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 73 52 72 / 10 10 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 78 59 77 / 5 5 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 53 73 52 72 / 5 10 40 5
CAPULIN......................... 53 75 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 79 48 78 / 0 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 51 81 49 80 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 74 50 72 / 5 5 20 5
CLAYTON......................... 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 78 55 78 / 0 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 87 62 87 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 83 59 83 / 0 5 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 87 63 89 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 85 61 86 / 0 5 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 89 62 91 / 0 0 30 0
PICACHO......................... 57 86 58 85 / 0 5 40 5
ELK............................. 56 82 56 83 / 0 10 40 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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