634
FXUS65 KABQ 141146 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS, WITH SATURDAY BEING
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
RICH, MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT IN
BETWEEN A RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A
WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. OVERALL, TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN,
MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE SFC WARMING AND MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION TODAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST CROP OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL RAINFALL RATES. HREF
90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS SHOW ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1-2" IN SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS, WHERE THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING.
SMOKE DISPERSION MODELS INDICATE THAT SMOKE SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE
SANTA FE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SMOKE GENERALLY
FUNNELING NORTHWARD UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY POOR AIR QUALITY IN THE TAOS AREA THIS EVENING.
PWATS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SATURDAY, BUT THE ADVECTION OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL HELP TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
AND INCREASE CAPE VALUES TO NEARLY 1000 J/KG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HREF LPMM
ALREADY SUGGESTING LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 3" THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. THERE WILL BE SURFACE CONVERGENCE, SOUTH TO NORTH
STEERING FLOW PARALLEL TO THE TERRAIN, AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SO ALL
THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS. THE OTHER AREA TO WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. A DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES SHOULD INITIATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN
THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND THIS CLUSTER COULD SCRAPE THE
FAR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING RATON WHERE WPC HAS OUTLINED A
SLIGHT RISK AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WHICH WILL BE JUST WEST OF THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME. GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN AND CLOUDS, HIGH TEMPS WILL
RISE BACK UP TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
RIDGING OVER TEXAS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL START TO DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME.
THE WEAKENING OF FLOW ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY HELP MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH PWATS RISING BACK ABOVE THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. SUNDAY COULD HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE OF
ANY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS A RESULT. STORM MOTIONS WILL TREND SLOWER,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE AND AN ELONGATED RIDGE BLOCKS OFF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MID-WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND THAT.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST TRANSITIONING INTO A REVERSE MONSOON PATTERN WITH THE MONSOON
HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LEAVING EASTERN NM
VULNERABLE TO THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT OR TWO. OTHERS KEEP
RIDGING OVER THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, WITH MOISTURE STEADILY
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN, BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE DRIER OR WETTER DEPENDING ON HOW MODELS
TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A BATCH OF BROKEN VFR CIGS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DRAPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM IS GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR WITH THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS, BUT VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO LAST MORE THAN 30
MIN. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BROKEN CIGS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN TODAY,
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF STORMS AT KFMN, KABQ, AND KAEG THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO
MENTION WAS MADE IN THE TAFS SINCE PROBS ARE TOO LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
BRIEFLY POOR AIR QUALITY MAY IMPACT AREAS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF THE FRIJOLES FIRE TODAY, BUT IS UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE SANTA FE
AREA GIVEN PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST TODAY.
A TAP OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES FUNNELING INTO NEW MEXICO
TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY LOW AND MOISTURE RELATIVELY
HIGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND TREK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. STORM
COVERAGE FOCUSES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY WHERE
THERE WILL BE HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WESTERN AREAS WILL BE
DRIER SATURDAY, BUT THIS CHANGES ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING STARTS TO
DEVELOP OVERHEAD, TRAPPING MOISTURE UNDERNEATH. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT BECOME FAIR TO GOOD
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN TREND BETTER AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ELONGATED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
GENERALLY FAVORING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE MID-WEEK TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER AND
OTHER FAVORING HOTTER AND DRIER. BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR
NORMAL MOISTURE, BUT THERE IS STILL A RANGE OF POTENTIAL FORECAST
OUTCOMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 84 61 89 60 / 10 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 48 88 47 / 20 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 78 55 86 56 / 20 30 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 79 52 84 54 / 40 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 75 52 81 54 / 50 20 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 78 54 85 55 / 70 40 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 55 82 57 / 70 20 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 80 61 85 63 / 60 40 30 10
DATIL........................... 75 55 80 57 / 60 30 10 5
RESERVE......................... 79 52 89 55 / 60 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 84 57 94 61 / 30 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 73 48 81 49 / 20 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 60 85 61 / 40 40 30 5
PECOS........................... 81 57 86 57 / 20 40 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 55 84 55 / 30 30 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 68 46 73 45 / 50 30 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 38 79 38 / 50 30 50 10
TAOS............................ 82 53 86 53 / 20 20 10 0
MORA............................ 78 52 83 52 / 60 40 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 86 59 91 59 / 30 40 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 81 61 86 62 / 20 30 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 58 90 59 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 66 94 68 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 65 93 66 / 20 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 63 95 65 / 20 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 66 93 68 / 20 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 91 62 95 63 / 20 30 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 88 65 95 66 / 20 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 61 94 62 / 20 30 0 5
CORRALES........................ 88 66 95 67 / 20 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 63 94 64 / 20 30 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 86 64 91 65 / 20 30 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 66 94 66 / 20 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 66 96 68 / 20 30 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 58 87 60 / 20 40 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 83 60 88 62 / 20 30 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 84 55 89 56 / 20 40 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 54 91 54 / 20 30 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 58 86 58 / 20 30 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 56 89 57 / 20 20 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 57 87 58 / 10 20 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 64 90 64 / 10 10 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 78 58 83 58 / 40 10 80 10
CAPULIN......................... 82 56 84 54 / 50 20 80 50
RATON........................... 85 55 88 54 / 50 20 70 30
SPRINGER........................ 89 56 90 55 / 40 20 60 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 87 55 / 30 30 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 92 64 93 61 / 20 30 40 70
ROY............................. 88 60 89 59 / 20 30 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 98 66 97 64 / 10 20 20 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 64 93 63 / 20 30 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 68 98 65 / 5 20 20 50
CLOVIS.......................... 97 68 97 67 / 5 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 98 69 98 67 / 10 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 68 97 67 / 5 20 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 100 70 99 70 / 10 10 20 10
PICACHO......................... 89 64 93 63 / 50 20 70 10
ELK............................. 86 60 90 58 / 30 10 70 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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