535
FXUS65 KABQ 051105 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING
IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING FARMINGTON, SANTA FE,
ESPANOLA, MORIARTY, AND ESTANCIA. FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
PROTECT PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM A DAMAGING FREEZE EVENT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FUTURE FIRE
STARTS. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
- AFTER A QUIET AND WARMER WEDNESDAY, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
QUIET, ALBEIT CHILLY, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED AT THE
SURFACE FOR MOST AREAS AS WINDS VEER IN THE WAKE OF FRIDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT H7, A MID LEVEL HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
PANHANDLES, ALLOWING FOR DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER NM. THIS IS
SLOWLY BUT SURELY PULLING POOLED MOISTURE OVER TX INTO NM, THOUGH
THE EFFECTS OF THAT MAY NOT REALLY BE SEEN FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
24 HOURS. NONETHELESS, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VIRGA SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES OVER SOUTHERN NM. THOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, THEY OTHERWISE WON'T BE TERRIBLY
EXCITING. HOWEVER, TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL BE UNDERWAY THERE AND
OVER SOUTHERN NM FROM THESE SHOWERS. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WILL PULL THIS MODEST
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH NM FROM THE WEST AND WITH IT WILL
COME ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE. WEAK FORCING FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXTREMELY LIMITED.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL, WITH MOST AREAS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 0.10" OF RAIN. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS WANING THAT THERE WILL
BE MUCH OF THAT ON TUESDAY GIVEN NEAR SATURATED FORECAST SOUNDING
PROFILES.
OTHER THAN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BOTH TODAY
AND MONDAY. WITH THIS AREA BEING THE LAST TO RECEIVE THE BENEFITS
OF ANY INCREASED MOISTURE, NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN. GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WILL VARY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH 60S AND LOW 70S COMMON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL
WANE TUESDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AID ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB. A SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPING WINDS TO
MODESTLY INCREASE, AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL AID IN
INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALL-IN-ALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WED WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUE, WITH THE
GREATEST INCREASES ACROSS EASTERN NM. OUTSIDE OF A FEW BREEZES,
SHOULD BE A GORGEOUS DAY OVERALL.
THOUGH THE DETAILS OF THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD REMAIN
MURKY, THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT A CLOSED LOW PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL TREK FROM THE COAST OF CA TOWARD NM THRU THE PERIOD. WHILE
THAT IS OCCURRING, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE
INTO AT LEAST EASTERN NM WITH A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT FRIDAY APPEARS MORE LIKELY. THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE
HOW FAST THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD, PARTICULARLY
FRI/SAT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REACH. A SLOWER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO REACH
AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTDVD WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
NEARLY AREAWIDE, BUT A FASTER SYSTEM WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE TO
EASTERN NM AND BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, AND NEAR 20 TO 25 KT ELSEWHERE,
INCLUDING KROW. INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
ALLOW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO WEAKEN THUS
EVE ACROSS EASTERN NM, EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NE NM WHERE GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS APPROACH
CRITICAL CRITERIA AND RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 TO 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BETWEEN RATON AND LAS VEGAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS WHILE RH VALUES FALL
TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS AREA FOR A
POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH, BUT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT MIXING SO HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW.
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE, BUT WETTING RAINFALL WILL
BE SCARCE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY,
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ROUND OUT THE WEEK. GULF MOISTURE
SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST EASTERN NM BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 41 71 43 / 0 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 68 28 67 31 / 0 0 10 20
CUBA............................ 64 33 64 36 / 0 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 70 32 69 36 / 5 0 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 66 36 65 38 / 5 5 10 40
GRANTS.......................... 68 33 67 36 / 0 0 10 30
QUEMADO......................... 67 38 66 40 / 10 5 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 65 38 63 43 / 10 5 10 30
DATIL........................... 63 36 62 40 / 10 5 20 40
RESERVE......................... 70 31 68 37 / 20 10 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 74 34 71 40 / 10 5 20 40
CHAMA........................... 61 29 61 31 / 0 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 39 63 41 / 0 0 5 20
PECOS........................... 62 31 64 35 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 32 63 35 / 0 0 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 52 28 54 30 / 0 0 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 19 60 25 / 0 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 65 28 67 32 / 0 0 10 20
MORA............................ 60 30 63 32 / 0 0 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 70 36 70 37 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 64 37 65 40 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 34 67 39 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 44 68 47 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 42 70 46 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 39 72 45 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 42 70 46 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 73 37 71 43 / 0 0 0 20
BERNALILLO...................... 72 40 71 45 / 0 0 0 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 35 71 42 / 0 0 0 20
CORRALES........................ 72 40 71 45 / 0 0 0 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 36 71 43 / 0 0 0 20
PLACITAS........................ 69 42 68 46 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 43 70 46 / 0 0 0 20
SOCORRO......................... 73 41 70 46 / 5 5 5 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 38 64 42 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 66 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 24 67 34 / 0 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 31 63 38 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 32 65 40 / 5 5 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 31 65 40 / 5 5 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 36 65 44 / 10 10 0 30
RUIDOSO......................... 56 32 58 40 / 10 10 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 62 33 65 33 / 0 0 5 10
RATON........................... 66 28 69 31 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 67 29 70 33 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 68 41 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 65 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 72 34 73 40 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 33 69 40 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 36 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 34 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 33 70 41 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 70 39 70 46 / 5 5 0 10
PICACHO......................... 63 35 65 41 / 5 5 0 20
ELK............................. 59 31 62 39 / 10 5 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page