370
FXUS65 KABQ 260721
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1221 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AFTER THANKSGIVING, MAINLY FROM LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, SHOULD STAY UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER
TRAVEL ROUTES OR PLANS, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
BRING WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
INCLUDING NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU, INCLUDING FARMINGTON AGAIN THIS
MORNING. ANY PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL BURN OFF LATE THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE ACROSS EASTERN NM, WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW IS RESULTING
IN SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, INCLUDING RATON
AND LAS VEGAS, AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS, INCLUDING ROSWELL. THIS SHOULD
BURN OFF AROUND MID MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THANKSGIVING
EVE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE EFFECT OF TUESDAY'S BACKDOOR
FRONT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE LEE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL HELP
WARM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY ACROSS THIS
PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LEE LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME
BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
CLINES CORNERS TO THE TX BORDER WITH PEAL WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. A SPLENDID THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
AROUND AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. A BLANKET
OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MOVE OUT DURING THE DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD AND THE
STATE SOUTH OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. 700
MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW END BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE NM/CO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL MOVE THE THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH COOLING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MOST EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM WHERE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
NORTH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT.
ATTENTION ON SUNDAY WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERALL STORM EVOLUTION AND
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IMPACTS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS,
CANADIAN, AND ECMWF HAVE A POSITIVELY TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY
(SCENARIO 1). MEANWHILE, THE AI-GFS AND EC-AIFS HAVE THE TRACK OF
THIS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS FURTHER NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY BEFORE BRUSHING NORTHERN NM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (SCENARIO 2). THE CLUSTERS STILL ARE EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS, SCENARIO 1 WOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH PEAK COVERAGE AND RESULTANT IMPACTS ON
MONDAY MORNING. 700 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 TO -10 DEG C ALONG WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL HELP RESULT IN SNOW
BEING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE, EVEN FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SCENARIO 2 WOULD BE A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE STATE DUE TO BEING
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL STILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO. FOR NOW, STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST
FOR ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS, INCLUDING KFMN. LIKE OCCURRED TUESDAY, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN TO THE GALLUP AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT UNTIL
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPROCK WITH MOSTLY LOW VFR AND LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. COOLER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THANKSGIVING EVE DUE TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT. GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS. MILDER WITH MOSTLY POOR
VENTILATION ON THANKSGIVING DAY AND GOOD TO LOCALLY VERY GOOD
VENTILATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY. COOLER FOR MOST TO
COLDER ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AREAWIDE BEHIND
PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTS WITH GOOD TO LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE TRACK OF A
SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
POTENTIALLY DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 17 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 23 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 20 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 28 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 58 23 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 26 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 33 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 28 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 25 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 29 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 20 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 30 52 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 28 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 26 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 21 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 14 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 20 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 54 25 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 23 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 31 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 27 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 36 58 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 30 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 31 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 57 24 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 57 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 24 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 25 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 33 56 36 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 30 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 32 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 30 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 31 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 26 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 20 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 27 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 27 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 27 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 33 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 23 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 53 23 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 55 21 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 27 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 26 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 28 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 62 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 31 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44
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