174
FXUS65 KABQ 132344 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS, IS FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY,
CREATING STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHWEST UTAH AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS TO
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM DUE TO
CLOUDS, NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM, AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS MOSTLY TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHWEST, WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD
AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. LOW CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NEAR THE CO BORDER. THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WINDS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT SETTING THE STAGE
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS MARKING THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON. A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS AND QUESTA. THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE TO TWO, SO THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL AND
GARDENING INTERESTS SHOULD BRING ANY PLANTS INDOORS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER, LOWER HEIGHTS RETROGRADE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NM DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
RESULTING IN NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH. COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. A FEW
WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL HELP PULL THE BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH A 1043 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL RESULT IN A VERY STRONG EAST
CANYON WIND EVENT FOR CANYON OPENINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NM. EASTERLY
700 MB WINDS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER ALBUQUERQUE SHOW LOW POTENTIAL FOR A MOUNTAIN OVERTOPPING EVENT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE
FOR WIND GUSTS > 60 MPH, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ABQ METRO, SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY AND LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING SOCORRO.
GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY RELAXES AND EASTERLY 700 MB WINDS SLOWLY
WEAKEN. IT WILL BE A COOL AND CRISP MID OCTOBER DAY AREAWIDE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS DUE TO HIGHER
MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS THE PART OF THE STATE. FREEZE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR MORE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS, EXCLUDING THE RGV, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO TEMPERATURES AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. COOL
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OPENS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY RESULTING IN A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. EVEN
MILDER MONDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVES OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THROUGH
AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AROUND EARLY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG
THIS FRONT, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL NM. BY 21Z TOMORROW, ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE STATE, THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE MORE
GRADUAL, RATHER THAN AN ABRUPT WIND DIRECTION CHANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM THIS
EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. COOLER MID TO LATE THIS WEEK AS PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SOME
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY, WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MILDER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE
OVERHEAD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 55 37 62 / 80 60 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 54 27 63 / 70 80 5 0
CUBA............................ 43 56 32 60 / 30 50 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 38 55 30 60 / 70 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 55 28 61 / 60 20 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 59 32 62 / 40 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 60 32 65 / 40 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 67 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 44 61 32 62 / 10 5 0 0
RESERVE......................... 43 67 34 70 / 40 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 69 39 75 / 40 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 50 27 55 / 80 90 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 59 36 60 / 10 30 0 0
PECOS........................... 44 61 36 61 / 0 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 58 32 57 / 10 50 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 34 50 25 48 / 10 50 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 57 20 53 / 0 30 0 0
TAOS............................ 40 61 31 59 / 5 30 0 0
MORA............................ 39 60 33 56 / 0 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 67 37 66 / 10 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 62 38 62 / 5 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 65 36 65 / 5 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 68 43 68 / 5 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 69 42 68 / 5 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 71 42 70 / 5 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 69 43 68 / 5 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 51 73 43 70 / 0 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 70 40 69 / 10 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 72 41 70 / 5 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 70 41 69 / 5 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 72 42 70 / 0 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 67 41 67 / 5 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 69 41 68 / 10 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 52 77 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 61 36 62 / 5 20 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 65 38 65 / 0 20 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 64 37 64 / 0 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 66 36 66 / 0 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 64 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 62 38 51 / 0 10 10 10
RATON........................... 41 66 36 57 / 0 10 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 41 69 36 60 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 63 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 68 45 59 / 0 10 30 0
ROY............................. 49 69 42 60 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 77 47 69 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 76 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 79 49 69 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 79 53 69 / 10 30 5 0
PORTALES........................ 61 81 54 70 / 10 20 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 80 51 71 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 85 54 76 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 77 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 73 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ219-220-224-225.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NMZ216.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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