828
FXUS65 KABQ 281122 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
422 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
ROSWELL AREA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY OVER THE PAST 24HRS AS A DIRTY
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FLATTENS AND SLIDES WESTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE EXCEPTION REMAINS ROSWELL AND CHAVES COUNTY
WHERE ABUNDANT SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND AND WHERE HIGHS ONLY
TOPPED OUT AT 33F TUESDAY. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS WHERE LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO 9F AT
ROSWELL EARLY THIS MORNING AND WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL
BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THIS MORNING'S FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS CHAVES COUNTY,
WHERE THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN SOME PRIOR SNOW MELT HAVING
OCCURRED AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES. TODAY'S FORECAST HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 40S SHOULD ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE SNOW MELT AND
THIS WILL BE A QUESTION AGAIN HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT TO A
LESSER DEGREE. HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED DIRTY RIDGE COULD INHIBIT FREEZING FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF CHAVES COUNTY, TEMPERATURES RISE FURTHER TODAY INTO THE
50S FOR MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CLIPPING
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BRING SOME WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE RIDGELINE OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTS. SOME OF THIS MAY REACH ADJACENT CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN HIGHLAND AREAS AS WELL, BUT WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO STAY
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE LOWERING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND MODEST
COLD FRONT WILL STALL THE WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE FOR
THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE CHAVES COUNTY WHERE FURTHER SNOW
MELT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
FRIDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH STABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER, A POTENT LOW
ORIGINATING FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL DIVE DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST REGION OF THE CONUS SENDING DOWN ANOTHER POTENT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WITHOUT THE ARCTIC CHILL WE OBSERVED THIS PAST
WEEK. THE BRUNT OF THIS CANADIAN AIRMASS STAYS EAST OF THE REGION
LIMITING THE COOL DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
DIP INTO THE 40S SATURDAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO SEE NEAR PERFECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT AS THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FLATTENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR NEARLY ALL LOWER AND MID-ELEVATION AREAS EACH DAY
WITH SOME LOW 60S ACROSS EASTERN NM. THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL STARTING TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO
CO AND NM ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF YET ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE EVENTUALLY TRIES TO EVOLVE THIS
SCENARIO INTO A REX-BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATER INTO
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR PREVAILS AS HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CROSSES THE STATE, ALONGSIDE
LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO KSAF THIS
MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING TO PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN
PLAINS BRINGING LLWS TO THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. DIALED BACK THE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG AT KROW THIS
MORNING AS THIS HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY AS HIGH CIRRUS MOVES OVERHEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR WARMING TREND TODAY, PLATEAUING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, NOTABLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN NM BRINGING AN EASTERLY WIND SHIFT THAT QUICKLY
VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES INTO NORTHERN NM TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 18 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 9 44 10 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 18 43 17 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 12 50 13 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 19 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 15 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 21 49 19 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 29 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 57 22 57 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 62 26 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 10 39 12 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 22 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 22 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 17 40 17 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 14 32 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 8 38 5 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 11 43 12 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 21 46 17 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 49 15 49 16 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 23 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 18 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 23 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 49 16 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 24 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 18 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 24 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 19 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 26 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 26 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 52 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 26 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 25 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 21 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 17 47 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 21 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 22 46 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 23 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 26 48 24 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 29 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 21 42 16 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 47 18 47 15 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 52 17 50 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 21 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 29 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 50 23 49 20 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 23 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 26 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 24 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 25 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 23 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 22 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 20 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 29 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 28 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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