011
FXUS65 KABQ 122320
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BEING COMMON. HIGHER GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO, WEDGED BETWEEN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. THE NEXT VORTMAX ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL IN NATURE, SLIDING A STEADY
STREAM OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BACK WEST AND MORE
SQUARELY OVER AZ TODAY. THIS VORTMAX FEATURE IS PROGGED TO RIDE UP
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND NAVAJO NATION TONIGHT, BRINGING
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS STRAY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TIER OF NM FROM GALLUP TO FARMINGTON TO DULCE.
OTHERWISE, A DRYSLOT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
BRINGING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PICKED UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SETUP STAYS TRUE THROUGH TUESDAY DESPITE THE H5 CLOSED LOW
ANCHORING THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN EASTERN NV.
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CONDITIONS DO LOOK TO BE A STEP WEAKER RELATIVE
TO TODAY THANKS TO A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN NM. ALL THE WHILE, SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE BY THEN ~565DM H5 LOW
TRACKING WESTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN NM BRINGING A COLD FRONT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE STATE THRU THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH ANY SNOW RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SW-NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE STATE
THRU WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS VEERING WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT SOME PERCENTAGE OF MOISTURE FROM TC SIMON
ALONG THE WESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE WILL GET PICKED UP AND ADVECTED
NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TIER OF THE STATE. AMPLE SHEAR
WILL ALLOW SOME THESE STORMS TO THREATEN SEVERE GUSTS, AND THERE IS
ALREADY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SET OUT BY THE SPC.
A COOL AND DRY FALL AIRMASS FILLS IN WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH CALMING WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AT MANY LOCATIONS. NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS
IN PARTICULAR WILL LIKELY SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZES OVER THE SEASON,
ASIDE FROM THE MORENO VALLEY WHERE LOWS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REGULARLY
BELOW FREEZING AT TIMES.
THEREAFTER, NUMERICAL AND AI MODEL SUITES HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE POLAR JET
BEING SQUEEZED OFF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, GENERATING ITS OWN NEW
LARGE BUT WEAK UPPER LOW THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
MAIN UPPER LOW WILL SEND DOWN A POTENT COLD FRONT, BACKING SOUTH AND
WEST THROUGH EASTERN NM. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD,
SURGING THRU THE GAPS AND OVER THE RIDGELINES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND
NAM12 IN PARTICULAR HAVE STRONG H7 EASTERLY WINDS OF 40-50KTS DURING
THIS TIME, HENCE THE THINKING THIS WILL OVERTOP THE SANDIA/MANZANO'S
PRODUCING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ALL AREAS OF THE ABQ METRO OUTSIDE OF
JUST THE TIJERAS CANYON. WIND ADVISORIES AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGH
WIND WARNINGS LOOK TO BE HOISTED FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD FOR THIS EVENT, FOCUSING ON THOSE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 45-55MPH, POTENTIALLY HIGHER, THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TC SIMON GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THIS NEW UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN NM AREA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE DEGREE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF NM FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES TREND HIGHER ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
AND FAR NORTHWEST NM AFTER 06Z, WITH OTHER AREAS REMAINING DRY.
A BATCH OF SHOWERS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO FAR
WESTERN NM AFTER 06Z, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS AT BOTH KGUP AND KFMN. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AT BOTH SITES, WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE (<20% CHANCE) FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN FAR WESTERN NM BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST THIRD
OF THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SW TO S BREEZES ARE
LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. WINDS
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NM TONIGHT, AND
POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
NOTABLY WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL AS WELL.
THEREAFTER, A POTENT COLD FRONT BACKS SOUTH AND WEST THRU THE STATE
LATE THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY WILL LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A DEGREE. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS GUSTING 40 TO 55 MPH, POTENTIALLY HIGHER THRU THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SOUTH OF I-40, WILL OVERCOME THAT STILL YIELDING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. WINDS TAPER OFF THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAVORING FAR SOUTHERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 66 43 59 / 40 60 50 70
DULCE........................... 40 60 38 57 / 70 80 70 90
CUBA............................ 44 64 41 59 / 5 20 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 43 62 39 57 / 40 50 50 20
EL MORRO........................ 41 63 38 56 / 10 10 40 20
GRANTS.......................... 45 68 42 61 / 0 5 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 44 66 42 61 / 5 0 20 5
MAGDALENA....................... 49 70 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 64 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 45 66 44 66 / 10 10 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 49 71 47 70 / 10 20 5 10
CHAMA........................... 40 54 36 52 / 60 70 60 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 64 45 60 / 5 0 5 20
PECOS........................... 45 66 42 64 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 62 40 60 / 10 20 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 36 53 32 52 / 10 10 10 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 61 29 58 / 0 5 5 20
TAOS............................ 43 64 40 63 / 5 5 5 20
MORA............................ 39 67 38 62 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 48 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 48 66 45 64 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 68 45 66 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 74 51 71 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 75 51 72 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 77 51 74 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 75 51 72 / 5 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 51 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 75 50 72 / 5 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 76 50 73 / 5 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 77 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 72 50 69 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 75 50 72 / 5 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 52 80 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 67 45 63 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 69 47 66 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 70 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 68 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 73 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 68 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 71 43 63 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 43 74 41 67 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 45 77 41 70 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 68 43 65 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 59 80 52 70 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 52 75 47 69 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 60 84 54 78 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 80 53 76 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 86 58 80 / 20 0 0 40
CLOVIS.......................... 62 87 59 81 / 20 0 10 60
PORTALES........................ 63 88 61 82 / 20 0 10 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 85 56 82 / 10 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 61 90 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 56 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 54 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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