564
FXUS65 KABQ 192011
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
211 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON RECENT BURN SCARS NEAR RUIDOSO.
- RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
INCREDIBLY DRY CONDITIONS AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS THRU
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM.
- A MODERATE HEAT RISK REMAINS FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY, AND ALL LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES
THIS WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOST
STORMS SOUTH OF US-60 SHOULD EXHIBIT SLOW STORM MOTIONS, WHILE
STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE MORE NOTICABLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
MOTIONS TO THEM. MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN, WHICH SHOULD NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF A FLASH FLOOD RISK UNLESS STORMS REGENERATE OVER THE SAME AREA OR
FALL ON SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH AS BURN SCARS. THE STORMS MOVING OFF OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT (~20-30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR), WHICH MAY HELP DEVELOP
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR THIS AREA, WHICH ALIGNS
WITH OUR LOCAL THINKING. OUTSIDE OF EASTERN NM, A FEW SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT CAUSE ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM AND OUTFLOW ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT.
THE STATE CONTINUES TO BE DIVIDED INTO A MOIST EAST AND DRY WEST
MOVING INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS INDICATING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE, VERY DRY AIR (HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS)
WILL ADVANCE INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NM, CONTINUING THE HOT AND DRY
TREND. IN EASTERN NM, THIS DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD,
SETTING UP A DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER THUNDERSTORMS CAN ACTUALLY GET GOING
ACROSS THIS DRYLINE. THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE REMAINS OVER
CO, SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT WE SEE 1 TO 2 STORMS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
10% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OF THE DRYLINE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. RETURNING TO CO, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SETS UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO, STRETCHING
INTO NORTHEAST NM. AS A RESULT, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35MPH LIKELY.
AS ALSO MENTIONED BEFORE, THIS IS THE CORRIDOR WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, SO STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE FAVORED JUST NORTH OF
THE STATE BORDER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A DEVELOPING CLUSTER
OF STORMS CLIPS UNION COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS
MAINTAINED ANOTHER MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR FAR NORTHEAST UNION
COUNTY AS THERE IS BETTER SHEAR (~30-40KTS), THOUGH THE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT VERY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE A STORM IN THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES. WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE HIGH 90S TO
LOW 100S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH UP TO THE HIGH 80S FOR OUR
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. HEAT RISK LOOKS TO REMAIN AT A MODERATE FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN NM AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE DRY AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT IN ITS BATTLE AGAINST THE MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY, AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR JUST ABOUT EVERY LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. IN
FACT, A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL SEE BETWEEN 12-20 HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY! SUFFICE TO SAY, IT WILL BE QUITE DRY ON
SUNDAY. IN TURN, THE HEAT RISK ALSO INCREASES AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RISE. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REMAINS IN THE HIGH 90S TO
LOW 100S, AND THE EASTERN PLAINS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 100S.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT RISK IS LIKELY TO BE SEEN ACROSS OUR
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY OR TWO MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR SOME OF OUR SOUTHEAST AREAS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY NIGHT,
REPLENISHING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AS IT PUSHES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FEW WIND
GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 40MPH. AS THAT SETTLES AGAINST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL
FLOW LOOKS TO INCREASE THE SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA, SO A FEW STORMS
HAVE THE CHANCE TO TURN STRONG TO SEVERE.
OUR FIRST RENDITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH LOOKS TO BUILD INTO
SOUTHWEST NM THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING IN EASTERN NM, DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON THE
HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION, WITH THESE STORMS
MOVING OFF INTO THE EAST. SHEAR VALUES EACH DAY APPEAR SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WESTERN NM, THE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH MAY BRING ABOUT A FEW DRIER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO SIT ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH. THIS PATTERN OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST
AND HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WEST LOOKS TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A FEW BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP HERE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AFTER 18Z TODAY, WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40KTS
IN AND AROUND THEM. SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AS WELL NEAR KLAM, WHICH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT OFF
TOWARDS KSAF, PRODUCING ANOTHER BATCH OF OUTFLOW WINDS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DRIFT OFF INTO EASTERN NM
THROUGH THE EVENING, DISSIPATING BY 03Z. A FEW LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
LATER THIS EVENING, AFFECTING KABQ AND POSSIBLY KAEG. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 PM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST NM ON
SATURDAY. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE FOR THE NEWLY ISSUED RED FLAG
WARNING IS THE EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS (HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO
5%, WITH 6-12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY) AND THE ERCS BEING AT
OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE, PER THE SOUTHWEST COORDINATION CENTER
(SWCC). WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY CRITICAL, ABOUT 15-25 MPH OUT OF
THE WEST, BUT THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ALLOWED FOR HIGH ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A RFW. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG IN NORTHEAST
NM, WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO CRITICAL HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS,
BUT SWCC ERCS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SIT AROUND THE
50TH PERCENTILE. SO WHILE CONDITIONS MAY BE MET FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN A FEW AREAS IN NORTHEAST NM, THE LACK OF RECEPTIVE
FUELS LED TO NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT BEING ISSUED. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW,
CONTINUING TO LIMIT RECEPTIVE FUELS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS ALL OF NEW
MEXICO, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING 12-20 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH. THE
WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT, LIMITING CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AT THE MOMENT. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AREAS OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE WINDS AROUND 15MPH
ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, SHOULD THE FORECAST
WINDS INCREASE, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO REACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS NM SUNDAY NIGHT, CREATING BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE
ACROSS THAT HALF OF THE STATE, AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOOKS LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND THE AIR
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY (RH A OR BELOW 15%). WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK, SO THERE
IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MONDAY ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 94 52 92 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 49 89 44 89 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 59 89 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 89 46 89 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 87 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 92 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 90 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 92 58 92 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 88 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 93 50 94 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 83 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 89 58 88 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 57 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 86 50 86 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 78 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 82 43 81 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 54 90 49 89 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 88 51 88 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 63 97 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 64 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 93 55 92 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 98 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 100 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 98 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 65 101 62 100 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 69 98 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 99 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 99 63 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 100 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 95 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 98 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 69 102 65 102 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 94 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 90 57 89 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 93 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 89 54 89 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 52 94 52 93 / 20 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 53 95 52 95 / 30 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 91 54 91 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 60 94 63 96 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 57 93 57 94 / 30 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 101 64 102 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 97 65 97 / 30 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 100 68 102 / 30 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 64 97 67 102 / 20 10 5 0
PORTALES........................ 64 99 68 104 / 20 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 98 67 102 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 68 101 67 106 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 62 96 66 99 / 10 10 0 0
ELK............................. 59 94 63 96 / 10 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ101-105-
120-121.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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