594
FXUS65 KABQ 262325 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM TODAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A REMNANT MCV IS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS GRANTS, NM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RADAR SHOWING STORMS BLOSSOMING ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CO WITH A LARGE, DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE 18Z PWAT AT
KABQ WAS DOWN TO 1.15", H5 TEMPS WARMED TO NEAR -3C, AND STEERING
FLOW VEERED MORE SOUTHERLY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW
THAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN
RECENT DAYS. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM
WITH SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING OVER WESTERN NM FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z SUITE
OF QPF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CELLS WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.50". LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH LOTS OF
60S AND 70S.
THE H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NM MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO STORM COVERAGE. PWATS WILL REMAIN >1" AREAWIDE WITH
TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER EASTERN CO ON THE
NAM12 MONDAY EVENING LOOKS TO FORCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NM LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BECOME A PLAYER FOR STORMS
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL TREND HOTTER FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SEVERAL ZONES NOW HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY, INCLUDING
THE ABQ METRO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST NM WHERE A REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
DRAPED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
SINCE THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN CLOSE TO -3C WITH THE 597DM HIGH CENTER NEAR NORTHERN NM.
PWATS WILL REMAIN >1" SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHEREVER
CELLS DO FORM. IT WILL STAY HOT AS WELL WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES
LIKELY FOR A FEW ZONES TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONTINUES
DRIFTING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NM WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORECAST
PWATS NOTED AT KABQ. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN HOT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW ZONES EACH DAY. STORM
COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN STEERING
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SLOW-MOVING AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING, WITH SHORT-
LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE STORMS. LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACT AT CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TAF SITES AGAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. PATCHY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. A STRONG MONSOON HIGH WILL
MEANDER WEST OVER NORTHERN NM THIS WEEK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TREND HOTTER AREAWIDE. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SMALL RAINFALL
FOOTPRINTS OF 1 TO 2" MAY CREATE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 98 68 99 / 30 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 55 95 55 96 / 30 20 10 20
CUBA............................ 61 92 62 93 / 20 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 59 87 59 88 / 20 20 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 62 92 63 93 / 20 20 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 61 88 61 89 / 20 20 20 60
MAGDALENA....................... 66 91 68 91 / 10 20 20 30
DATIL........................... 62 87 64 87 / 20 20 30 50
RESERVE......................... 59 94 60 95 / 20 40 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 63 98 64 99 / 20 30 20 50
CHAMA........................... 54 87 54 87 / 20 40 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 93 69 92 / 30 30 20 50
PECOS........................... 62 93 63 92 / 10 20 20 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 90 60 88 / 40 40 30 60
RED RIVER....................... 48 85 49 85 / 40 50 40 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 86 52 84 / 30 40 30 80
TAOS............................ 60 93 60 92 / 30 20 30 50
MORA............................ 59 91 60 88 / 20 30 30 80
ESPANOLA........................ 68 100 68 99 / 30 10 20 40
SANTA FE........................ 67 93 68 94 / 10 10 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 97 66 98 / 10 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 100 72 100 / 10 5 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 100 71 100 / 10 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 103 69 102 / 10 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 101 72 101 / 10 5 10 10
BELEN........................... 69 102 70 102 / 10 5 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 71 102 72 102 / 10 5 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 102 68 101 / 10 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 71 103 72 102 / 10 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 102 70 101 / 10 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 70 98 71 98 / 10 5 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 101 71 101 / 10 5 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 73 103 75 104 / 5 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 94 68 92 / 10 5 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 64 97 65 96 / 10 5 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 98 63 96 / 10 10 20 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 97 60 96 / 5 10 30 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 92 62 91 / 5 20 30 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 96 62 95 / 5 20 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 94 65 94 / 0 10 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 97 71 98 / 5 10 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 65 90 66 91 / 5 30 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 61 94 60 89 / 10 20 40 70
RATON........................... 60 100 61 95 / 20 20 40 80
SPRINGER........................ 62 101 62 96 / 10 10 40 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 96 63 91 / 10 20 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 70 103 69 99 / 5 0 20 20
ROY............................. 66 98 66 95 / 10 5 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 71 106 70 103 / 10 0 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 102 68 99 / 5 0 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 106 72 105 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 105 70 104 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 71 105 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 106 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 101 70 100 / 0 5 5 5
ELK............................. 65 98 67 97 / 5 10 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ217-219-221-
228-231-232-234>238.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ205-206-208.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page