284
FXUS65 KABQ 170912
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD EACH DAY WITH A RISK
OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY MOIST PWATS AROUND 1-1.3" WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS PERSIST OVER THE CO/WY BORDER AND ALSO ON THE
TX/LA COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX TODAY AND SATURDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE MEXICO AND NM BORDER ON
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY
DRIFT WESTWARD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY
AND ERRATICALLY. WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS CAN ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY. SOME CELLS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT RATES OVER 1"/HR WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT EACH DAY WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA; HOWEVER, THE NBM'S 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES TODAY'S FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ACTUALLY
BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT, EXTENDING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE AZ BORDER. CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MCKINLEY COUNTY, WHERE FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRED IN AND SOUTH OF GALLUP ON THURSDAY. THE NBM
INDICATES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1-2" OF RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS
AGAIN TODAY, WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING, BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
EXTREMELY VULNERABLE BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE THE RAPID ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SYSTEM'S (REFS) LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN (LPMM)
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST OF FEW OF TODAY'S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1.25" OF RAINFALL. THE LREF'S LPMM
INDICATES THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NM FROM THE
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO GLENWOOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED
LOCATIONS FOR ISOLATED 1-2" RAIN AMOUNTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY
FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES FROM DAY
TO DAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGHS CONSOLIDATE INTO
A STRONGER (595 DAM) HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, INITIALLY OVER CO ON
MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD RECENTERING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE,
WHERE IT SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND 597 DAM. MEANWHILE, THE WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH, TRACKING OVER MEXICO AND THE NM
BOOTHEEL TUESDAY, THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER AZ ON WEDNESDAY. NM'S
STORMS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM TOWARD THE WEST AT A FASTER PACE
(10-25 MPH) ON MONDAY, THEN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE SLOWING DOWN SOME. BY THURSDAY, MODELS DEPICT A
NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS
WESTWARD OVER NM. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND WARMER AS THE
WORK WEEK PROGRESSES WITH THE STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MOVING
GRADUALLY MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON
THURSDAY FROM NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES ALONG NM'S WESTERN BORDER TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ALONG NM'S EASTERN
BORDER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
TRUSTED HIGH RES MODELS KEEP RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR KROW EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH BORDERLINE MVFR CEILINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SINCE THE PROBABILITY IS ONLY
AROUND 20%. THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL
AGAIN BE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NM BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
DEVELOPING LATER ELSEWHERE. AS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
INCREASES ACROSS THE BOARD, BRIEF MVFR COULD OCCUR IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT ALMOST ANY TAF SITE, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURST WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WITH SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE STRONG AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY, AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS WILL ALSO HAVE A
SHOT AT SOME WETTING PRECIP TODAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 61 89 62 / 30 50 20 20
DULCE........................... 85 48 87 49 / 70 40 60 20
CUBA............................ 82 54 82 55 / 50 60 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 83 53 82 52 / 70 60 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 78 54 / 70 60 70 50
GRANTS.......................... 83 55 83 55 / 70 50 70 50
QUEMADO......................... 80 55 79 55 / 70 50 70 50
MAGDALENA....................... 82 61 82 61 / 60 40 80 50
DATIL........................... 78 57 78 57 / 60 40 80 40
RESERVE......................... 85 53 86 53 / 50 30 80 40
GLENWOOD........................ 89 55 89 55 / 40 20 70 50
CHAMA........................... 77 47 80 48 / 80 40 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 60 83 62 / 60 50 40 20
PECOS........................... 82 53 83 54 / 70 40 60 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 54 82 54 / 70 30 40 5
RED RIVER....................... 71 46 73 47 / 80 30 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 40 77 41 / 70 30 30 5
TAOS............................ 82 51 84 51 / 70 30 40 10
MORA............................ 78 51 81 52 / 70 40 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 89 59 90 60 / 50 40 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 59 83 60 / 50 50 70 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 57 86 58 / 50 50 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 65 89 66 / 40 50 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 63 90 63 / 40 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 62 92 63 / 30 40 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 65 91 66 / 30 40 30 40
BELEN........................... 92 61 92 61 / 30 40 30 40
BERNALILLO...................... 92 64 92 64 / 30 40 30 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 60 91 60 / 40 40 30 40
CORRALES........................ 92 64 93 64 / 30 40 30 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 62 91 62 / 30 40 30 40
PLACITAS........................ 87 64 88 65 / 40 40 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 64 91 65 / 30 40 30 40
SOCORRO......................... 93 66 93 66 / 50 40 50 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 58 84 59 / 50 50 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 84 59 84 59 / 50 50 60 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 54 86 55 / 60 40 70 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 51 87 52 / 60 40 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 54 82 54 / 70 30 70 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 55 85 55 / 60 40 70 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 56 83 56 / 70 40 80 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 62 85 62 / 70 40 60 50
RUIDOSO......................... 77 56 78 56 / 90 40 90 60
CAPULIN......................... 81 53 83 53 / 30 10 20 5
RATON........................... 85 53 87 54 / 30 20 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 86 54 88 55 / 40 30 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 54 83 55 / 60 30 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 89 62 91 62 / 20 20 5 0
ROY............................. 84 58 86 59 / 20 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 93 63 / 20 40 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 61 88 61 / 30 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 64 93 64 / 10 30 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 89 63 91 63 / 20 30 40 30
PORTALES........................ 90 63 91 63 / 20 40 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 63 91 63 / 20 30 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 91 66 92 66 / 30 40 30 40
PICACHO......................... 85 61 87 61 / 60 40 70 50
ELK............................. 82 57 84 57 / 80 40 90 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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