333
FXUS65 KABQ 220800
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
200 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 109 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
- UNPRECEDENTED HEAT FOR MARCH WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
A RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- EAST WIND GUSTS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE CROSSWINDS UP TO 45 MPH ON NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE, INCLUDING I-25.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
IN THE WAKE OF DISTURBANCES THAT CROSSED THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN NM TODAY, WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT OCCURS FARTHER WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY TO FALL A FEW TO 7 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS, EXCEPT
UP TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM. NONETHELESS,
NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN TODAY OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, AND POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST AREAS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. SOME MODELS SHOW THE FRONT
REACHING ROSWELL AS EARLY AS 18Z TODAY, WHILE OTHERS SLOW THE
ARRIVAL UNTIL 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL TIME
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT BEFORE ROSWELL TIES IT'S ALL TIME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, WHICH WAS 98
DEGREES SET JUST YESTERDAY (SATURDAY). THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE
PEAK NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY, THEN GAP WIND GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT.
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MOST PLACES,
ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EAST ON MONDAY WILL VARY FROM A FEW TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES, AND AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES FARTHER
WEST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING 18-27 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN. NUMEROUS DAILY
RECORDS WILL AGAIN BE SET TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, INCLUDING A
POTENTIAL TIE ON WEDNESDAY OF ALBUQUERQUE'S ALL TIME RECORD
WARMEST MARCH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES, WHICH WAS ALSO SET
YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES STRENGTHENS THE FLOW
ALOFT OVER NM, AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THROUGH
GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND
ALL THE WAY TO THE AZ BORDER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO PLUNGE A FEW TO AROUND 15 DEGREES
FROM THURSDAY'S READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS, AND AS
MUCH AS 28 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST. THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO THE
CA COAST FRIDAY, BUT MODELS DEPICT THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER NM
AGAIN WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GUSTY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY MORNING
IN CLAYTON, THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
THE REST OF EASTERN NM. PEAK GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL COMMONLY
REACH 30-35 KT. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND BELOW CANYONS
OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH 40 KT BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE
ALBUQUERQUE AREA, AND ALSO IN CARRIZOZO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, BECAUSE HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE 25-40 PERCENT RANGE. THERE WILL
STILL BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON JUST BEFORE AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER HUMIDITIES
ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON MONDAY, BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL NEAR
AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. HUMIDITIES
WILL THEN TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL REDEVELOP ON THURSDAY WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
PROBABLY REACHING 35-40 MPH OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. MOISTURE
WITH THURSDAY NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE HUMIDITIES TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 20 PERCENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 42 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 79 34 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 78 40 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 82 33 81 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 78 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 82 34 81 36 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 80 39 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 79 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 85 39 83 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 89 43 86 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 74 35 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 46 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 79 37 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 65 34 61 40 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 25 67 27 / 5 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 79 33 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 78 35 72 44 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 84 43 80 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 80 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 84 40 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 48 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 45 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 48 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 89 42 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 87 47 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 88 42 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 87 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 44 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 83 47 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 91 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 44 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 80 44 75 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 40 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 34 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 36 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 39 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 41 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 47 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 81 40 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 69 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 75 32 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 81 33 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 35 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 81 36 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 89 39 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 39 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 39 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 91 40 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 93 39 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 39 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 98 47 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 43 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 90 40 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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