993
FXUS65 KABQ 111950
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
150 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AIDING IN DELIVERING THE DRY AIR THAT REMAINS OVER THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING HAD A PWAT OF 0.48",
DOUBLE WHAT YESTERDAY'S 00Z SOUNDING HAD (0.22"), BUT LESS THAN
YESTERDAY'S 18Z SOUNDING (0.55"). NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT REMAINS VERY
DRY OUT THERE TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS TODAY REMAIN THE HEAT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. FOR THE HEAT, THE 5956M
500MB HEIGHT AT 18Z SITS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY,
SHOWCASING AND EXPLAINING WHY SEVERAL RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO BE CHALLENGED, IF NOT BROKEN, THIS AFTERNOON. LOW 100S ARE
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH MID TO HIGH 90S ELSEWHERE IN LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. ACROSS WESTERN NM, HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
PICK UP ON A STRONG SIGNAL FOR INVERTED-V PROFILES AND INCREASING
MID- LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM MORE UNIFORM ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS WEST- CENTRAL CONUS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE ANNOUNCE THE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM HIGH-BASED VIRGA
SHOWERS. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW 50-55MPH GUSTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THESE SHOWERS. THESE
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NM (FARMINGTON-GALLUP-
QUEMADO) AFTER 3-4PM BEFORE SURGING FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AFTER 6-8PM THIS EVENING, BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30-35MPH. BRIEF, ISOLATED 40MPH GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS LOOK TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EASTWARD TOMORROW, CENTERING ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. AS IT DOES, ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE STARTS TO SEEP INTO THE STATE. THIS RAISES PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN, THOUGH THESE
STORMS WILL BE RATHER SLOW AND ISOLATED IN NATURE GIVEN THE HIGH
SITTING DIRECTLY OVER THEM. TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE STATE, AND SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST NM
MAY FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F). OVERALL, ANOTHER
RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A WETTER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. THE PLACEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES PUTS A
BULK OF AZ AND NM IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
IS EASILY ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL DAYS OF INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STORMS LOOK TO
INITIALLY FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. A SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY
PROVIDE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS OVERNIGHT RAINFALL, SHOULD IT
OCCUR, WOULD LIKELY LEAVE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND STABLE AIR INTO
MONDAY, WHICH CAN SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
RAINFALL INTENSITY, AND TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE
FINER DETAILS DEGRADE EACH DAY GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL PROPERTIES. IN
GENERAL, THE OVERALL PATTERN OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN THROUGHOUT A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONSISTENT
DAYS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LREF PWAT VALUES REACH OR
EXCEED THE 95TH PERCENTILE EACH DAY, SHOWING THE FAVORED ENVIRONMENT
FOR RAINFALL. A CONSISTENT QUESTION MARK (OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONAL
PROPERTIES ABOVE) REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY OR
COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO EASTERN NM SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A BOUNDARY SUCH AS THIS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN NM. WHILE SEVERAL FINE DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY,
THE UPCOMING PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF BRIEF BLOWING DUST THIS EVENING. MAIN
AVIATION HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE GUSTY TO STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS GENERATED BY HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM. CLOSER TO WESTERN TAF SITES (KGUP, KFMN), OUTFLOWS
CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 40KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AFTER 22Z. THE SEVERAL OUTFLOWS THAT ARE
LIKELY TO BE GENERATED FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH TOWARDS
CENTRAL TAF SITES AFTER 00-01Z (PRIMARILY KABQ AND KAEG). WINDS
MAY GET UP TO 35KTS BRIEFLY IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO 40KTS NEAR KONM. BLOWING DUST IS ALSO A
CONCERN FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY
BRING VISIBILITIES INTO MVFR TERRITORY. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
TOWARDS 10-15KTS AT MOST BY 06-09Z ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN TODAY (WIDESPREAD LOW TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS) ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS MAY
BRING ABOUT ISOLATED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WOULD BE THE
IGNITION OF ANY DORMANT LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE ALSO LIKELY IN WESTERN NM TODAY, WHICH ARE FAVORED TO PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40MPH, LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND THE LOW
CHANCE OF A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE.
SATURDAY BEGINS A TRANSITION TO A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WETTING
RAINFALL, WITH SUNDAY USHERING IN THE FIRST OF MULTIPLE DAYS WITH
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WETTING RAINFALL CHANCES FIRST FAVOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM SUNDAY, BEFORE
SPREADING TO A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. STORMS EACH DAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 91 62 91 / 10 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 45 89 48 87 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 55 87 57 85 / 5 0 0 40
GALLUP.......................... 54 86 55 86 / 20 10 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 52 83 53 84 / 20 10 10 50
GRANTS.......................... 57 87 56 87 / 10 20 20 60
QUEMADO......................... 56 84 56 84 / 20 10 20 60
MAGDALENA....................... 61 86 61 85 / 10 20 20 40
DATIL........................... 57 83 56 83 / 10 20 20 50
RESERVE......................... 55 89 57 87 / 30 40 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 60 95 62 92 / 30 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 49 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 87 61 85 / 0 10 10 20
PECOS........................... 60 89 58 86 / 0 5 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 47 76 46 75 / 0 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 82 39 80 / 0 5 5 30
TAOS............................ 51 89 53 88 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 57 86 54 84 / 0 10 5 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 94 61 92 / 0 5 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 63 89 62 87 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 91 60 90 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 94 67 92 / 5 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 94 66 93 / 5 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 96 66 95 / 5 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 95 67 93 / 5 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 62 95 65 95 / 5 0 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 64 96 66 94 / 5 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 95 65 95 / 5 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 65 96 67 94 / 5 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 95 66 95 / 5 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 93 65 91 / 5 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 95 66 93 / 5 0 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 68 96 69 96 / 5 10 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 89 60 87 / 5 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 59 90 62 89 / 5 0 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 91 59 89 / 0 0 5 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 92 57 91 / 0 0 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 89 59 88 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 89 60 89 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 93 66 90 / 0 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 60 86 61 83 / 0 20 0 60
CAPULIN......................... 56 85 55 88 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 54 89 54 91 / 0 0 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 54 93 55 92 / 0 0 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 89 56 87 / 0 5 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 91 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 60 92 59 91 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 65 100 66 99 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 96 65 96 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 100 68 100 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 67 100 69 98 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 68 100 70 99 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 101 68 99 / 0 0 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 69 103 71 101 / 0 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 66 96 65 94 / 0 20 5 30
ELK............................. 63 93 62 90 / 0 20 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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