786
FXUS65 KABQ 111753 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1153 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW MEXICO
(UNDER 7000 FEET) WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EAST
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS ON ROADWAYS.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THE STATE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES TONIGHT. THE CHANGE
WILL BE THE MOST DRASTIC IN WESTERN NM WHERE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING
WILL MAKE WAY FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE HOTTEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE SE PLAINS WHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE FIRST HEAT
ADVISORY OF THE YEAR WAS ISSUED FOR ROSWELL, WHERE THERE IS A 60%
CHANCE THAT THE HIGH REACHES 105F.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY RACING SOUTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO AND KANSAS
WILL PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NM AROUND SUNRISE, BUT ITS PROGRESS
WILL BE STALLED IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THANKS TO
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NORTH WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH MAY OCCUR IN THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT BLOWING DUST SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL. AFTER SUNSET, THE FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WESTWARD,
PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WIND GUSTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER, BUT GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WINDS
OUTPERFORM GUIDANCE.
MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PROVIDE THE ENERGY
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT WOULD BE A SLOW START
TO THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW CLOUDS BLANKETING EASTERN NM, BUT THEY
WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. DRIER CONVECTION ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE WILL BE FALLING
INTO A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SO RAINFALL WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY HERE
AND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL POSE A THREAT TO START NEW FIRES GIVEN
THE VERY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT ON SATURDAY TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE SW MOUNTAINS, BUT STORM
CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN GENERALLY FAVOR EASTERN NM. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE
ACROSS EASTERN NM, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE SHEAR, FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND PUSHING LOW TO
MODERATE RAIN CHANCES WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES TRENDING LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST. HOWEVER, THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL STEEPEN MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EASTERN NM, LIKELY ELEVATING THE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST NM AS STORMS COME OFF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED MID NEXT WEEK, BUT
THAT COULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE SNEAKS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENTLY, BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WHILE A BACKDOOR
FRONT PRODUCES GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. BOTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND
WILL DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING BY 06Z. GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40KTS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT KABQ
AND KSAF. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
FOR KABQ TONIGHT. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT MAY INDUCE INSTANCES
OF LLWS AT KABQ AND KROW AFTER 06Z, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN CONSISTENT
LLWS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TAF. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, THERE IS A MODERATE (50%) CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING FROM KSXU TO KTCC SOUTH TO KCVN AFTER 12Z AND EXTENDING
TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AT THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE WEAKER TODAY, BUT A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30
MPH STILL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN THE EAST IN EASTERN NM BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL STALL OUT IN THE
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY SURGING SOUTH AND WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THIS FRONT
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO BLANKET EASTERN NM FRIDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS, WITH WETTING RAIN CHANCES FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD START NEW FIRES AND
GENERATE DRY MICROBURSTS. STORM CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY, WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA BORDER.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE FROM WEST TO
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN LIMITED TO
EASTERN AREAS. DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS LIKELY AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAILING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 54 95 59 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 89 42 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 88 52 88 57 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 91 49 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 88 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 93 53 91 57 / 0 0 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 91 62 89 63 / 0 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 89 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 97 52 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 101 55 98 57 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 83 43 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 59 87 62 / 0 0 5 10
PECOS........................... 91 52 86 54 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 50 85 55 / 0 0 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 79 41 76 45 / 0 0 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 82 40 80 45 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 91 49 88 53 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 88 49 82 52 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 97 55 93 59 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 91 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 56 91 59 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 66 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 63 94 66 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 63 96 66 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 63 95 67 / 0 0 10 10
BELEN........................... 99 61 97 64 / 0 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 98 63 96 66 / 0 0 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 60 96 63 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 99 63 96 67 / 0 0 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 62 96 64 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 94 63 92 66 / 0 0 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 63 95 66 / 0 0 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 102 68 100 69 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 58 88 62 / 0 0 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 92 59 90 61 / 0 0 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 93 56 90 58 / 0 0 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 54 91 55 / 0 0 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 55 85 57 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 56 90 58 / 0 0 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 93 57 89 58 / 0 0 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 97 65 92 64 / 0 0 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 91 60 83 59 / 0 0 60 10
CAPULIN......................... 78 46 82 52 / 0 0 20 5
RATON........................... 87 48 87 52 / 0 0 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 89 50 87 54 / 0 5 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 53 84 56 / 0 5 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 83 54 86 61 / 0 5 10 20
ROY............................. 86 53 83 57 / 0 0 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 94 60 92 63 / 0 5 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 59 89 60 / 0 10 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 62 93 64 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 100 65 92 65 / 0 5 10 20
PORTALES........................ 102 65 93 65 / 0 5 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 64 92 63 / 0 10 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 105 70 96 67 / 0 0 30 20
PICACHO......................... 100 63 89 61 / 0 0 60 20
ELK............................. 99 61 87 59 / 0 0 70 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...77
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