521
FXUS65 KABQ 281235 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
635 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
- RIVER FLOODING LINGERS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW IS FAVORED
ABOVE 10,000 FEET ELEVATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
CURRENT GOES MID-LEVEL WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY
WSW FLOW ALOFT, INDICATIVE OF A GENERALLY PLEASANT FALL DAY AHEAD.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWS POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG,
MAINLY OVER GUADALUPE AND CURRY COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND NMDOT WEBCAM TRENDS SUGGEST THE FOG WILL NOT
BECOME WIDESPREAD OR DENSE, BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RUN WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES F OF NORMAL VALUES, EXCEPT IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
SOME MID- AND EVEN UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST. VAST MAJORITY OF THE
CWA WILL STAY DRY, BUT CAMS ARE SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE STORM
OR TWO TO DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE SAME SPOT OF SE LINCOLN/SW CHAVES
COUNTIES, WHICH HAS BEEN A FAVORED SPOT THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS.
ANY STORMS SHOULD FIZZLE OUT BY SUNSET, YIELDING A QUIET NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS RUNNING 5-15F ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS SOME
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL
STORM VANCE CLIPS NM AS IT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT.
EASTERN CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES COULD PICK UP 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A WPC SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CLIPS THESE AREAS IN CONSEQUENCE. THERE
IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR BURN-SCAR FLASH FLOODING AROUND RUIDOSO,
AS THE RRFS/REFS INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH 6-HOUR LPMM AMOUNTS
IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE IN BOTH THE REFS AND HREF SYSTEMS. NO SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS EASTERN NM EARLY IN THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO SW NM TOWARD AFTERNOON,
CUTTING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
HAVE THE SUPPORT OF WIDESPREAD LIFT FROM THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF
AN H25 SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
WPC SLIGHT RISK ERO AREA NOSING INTO THE GILA WILDERNESS, WITHIN A
LARGER MARGINAL AREA. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS SHORT-WAVE ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE A
CONCERN IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT.
SATURDAY (HALLOWEEN), AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME, SHOULD SEE A
RELATIVE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AS FLAT/SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SETS
UP BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND THE NEXT
DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OFF OF CALIFORNIA. EVENING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S-60S F AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY INCREASING REGARDING
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM CROSSING NEW
MEXICO FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEEK, SOME DETAILS STILL REMAIN
TO BE SORTED OUT. DIFFERENCES ARE STILL APPARENT IN THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING REGARDING THE DEGREE OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM COMPONENTS OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH A GOOD PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP SHOULD BE IN PLAY REGARDLESS. NBM HIGHEST POPS AND
QPF FAVOR THE WINDOW FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MOST FAVORED, WITH 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
PRECIP. WPC HAS 0.5-1.0 INCHES FALLING IN THE FARMINGTON AREA
DURING THIS WINDOW, BUT CLOSE TO A GRADIENT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
FARTHER NORTH. QPF IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO,
CURRENTLY IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE, WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR ANY POTENTIAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES DOWNSTREAM ON THE ANIMAS
AND SAN JUAN RIVERS BY MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS STILL PROGGED TO HOVER
AROUND 10,000 FT. MSL (AS H7 TEMPS STAY AROUND 0C IN THE GFS, FOR
EXAMPLE), BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T ESPECIALLY HIGH, AS DIFFERENCES IN
THE PHASING AND ULTIMATE DIGGING OF THE NORTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH/LOW WILL DETERMINE THIS.
BY TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS END UP IN A
PRETTY SIMILAR PLACE, WITH A SEASONALLY DEEP LOW IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WINDY AND BRISK CONDITIONS ON ITS
BACKSIDE, ESPECIALLY FOR NE NM. A WRAP-AROUND VORT MAX COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN ON THE PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND POTNL THE HIGHLAND ZONES AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
OUTSIDE OF KROW...ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR SKIES AND LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH (90%)
CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH- AND WESTWARD INTO THE
PECOS VALLEY, PER LATEST GOES NIGHTTIME CLOUD MICROPHYSICS RGB
SATELLITE. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT FOG/MIST HAS BEEN ABLE
TO DEVELOP AT GROUND LEVEL WHERE WINDS TEMPORARILY DROP BELOW 6-8
KNOTS, SO WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS AT KROW THROUGH 15Z.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, SHORT-TERM MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER WESTERN CHAVES COUNTY, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS AT KROW IS LOW (20%), SO
HAVE DROPPED PROB30 GROUP TO -SHRA INSTEAD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT WED OCT 28 2026
OVERALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE RATHER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE 30%, EXCEPT FOR WEST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE RH FALLS INTO THE 20S. PERIODS
OF RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION (ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FT. MSL)
ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES INCREASE ON SUNDAY, BEFORE VEERING MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENING ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEASTERN NM. VENTILATION TRENDS POORER AFTER THURSDAY, THEN
RECOVERS ON SUNDAY AS WINDS PICK BACK UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 38 68 46 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 61 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 63 38 64 43 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 67 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 68 32 68 40 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 68 36 68 42 / 0 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 68 43 67 47 / 0 0 0 20
DATIL........................... 65 37 64 42 / 0 0 20 20
RESERVE......................... 71 38 71 44 / 0 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 76 44 76 48 / 0 0 30 20
CHAMA........................... 55 33 58 36 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 43 63 45 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 63 37 65 41 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 37 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 51 31 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 23 59 24 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 61 31 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 64 33 64 37 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 68 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 41 65 44 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 48 71 48 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 47 72 49 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 73 44 73 49 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 71 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 71 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 42 73 47 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 68 45 69 47 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 45 71 49 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 76 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 65 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 39 67 44 / 0 0 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 33 69 40 / 0 0 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 42 65 44 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 42 68 45 / 0 0 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 44 67 44 / 0 0 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 50 70 49 / 0 0 50 40
RUIDOSO......................... 67 45 65 44 / 5 5 60 60
CAPULIN......................... 67 38 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 70 34 68 40 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 71 32 70 39 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 37 66 41 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 74 47 73 49 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 71 39 69 46 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 76 46 74 52 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 0 50
CLOVIS.......................... 75 53 73 53 / 0 5 5 60
PORTALES........................ 77 53 73 53 / 0 5 5 70
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 51 72 53 / 0 5 5 60
ROSWELL......................... 76 53 71 54 / 20 20 10 80
PICACHO......................... 75 49 71 50 / 30 20 20 70
ELK............................. 73 47 69 47 / 20 20 30 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ233-237.
SHORT TERM...53-SCHROEDER
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53
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