968  
FXUS65 KABQ 291743  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1043 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
COOL WINTER WEATHER OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
I-40 THIS MORNING. DRIZZLE, LOW CLOUDS, FOG, FLURRIES, AND PERHAPS A  
DUSTING WILL BE PRESENT IN THIS AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING  
CONDITIONS WEST TO EAST ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARMING TREND  
ENSUES FRIDAY WITH A RETURN OF WINDY WESTERLIES. WINDS STRENGTHEN  
FURTHER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,  
ESPECIALLY THROUGH EASTERN NM. BLOWING DUST WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS SEVERE AS WHAT  
WAS OBSERVED TUESDAY IN CHAVES COUNTY. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY  
WITH ELEVATED WINDS REMAINING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 2AM SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED  
AROUND CATRON COUNTY WITH RADAR ECHOES SPREADING EAST TO NORTHEAST  
ACROSS SOCORRO, LINCOLN, AND CHAVES COUNTIES. PRECIP IS FALLING AS  
SNOW IN MOST AREAS WITH WET-BULB COOLING DROPPING TEMPS BELOW  
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE LOWER RGV WHERE RAIN IS LIKELY  
TO CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE SOUTH OF LOS LUNAS. EVEN ROSWELL IS  
REPORTING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND RUIDOSO WITH  
A FEW INCHES EXPECTED. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SNOWFALL WILL  
TEASE THE ABQ METRO WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER MEASURABLE PRECIP  
WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS I-40. A COUPLE 00Z HI-RES MODELS  
SUGGESTED A FEW HOURS OF SNOW IN ABQ FROM 6AM TO 9AM BUT CONFIDENCE  
IS REALLY LOW GIVEN THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE SHOWING PRECIP  
DISSIPATING ON APPROACH. OTHERWISE, THE 00Z/06Z MODELS ARE IN GREAT  
AGREEMENT WITH SNOW PIVOTING THRU EASTERN NM THIS MORNING THEN  
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CAPROCK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
LIKELY TO BE AN INCH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS WITH AN ISOLATED 2" SPOT  
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NM, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTS WHERE UP  
TO 4" MAY FALL ABOVE RUIDOSO.  
 
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR  
SLIDING IN OVERHEAD. JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN IN  
PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AND THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY  
TO ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY  
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH, SUNNY SKIES, AND  
MAX TEMPS WARMING 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGHING  
PATTERN PINNED OVER THE PACIFIC COASTLINE. NM WILL BE UNDERNEATH A  
TIGHTENING UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRENGTHENING  
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER  
MIXING AND A SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THANKS TO A LEE SURFACE  
LOWS OVER EASTERN CO OR WY WILL ALLOW FOR THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT  
TO REACH GROUND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPE  
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN NM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ALL  
AREAS WILL SEE WINDY CONDITIONS THESE DAYS, AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST  
OF THE SANDIA/MANZANOS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE  
STRONGEST GUST POTENTIAL UPWARDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. BLOWING DUST WILL  
AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH EACH DAY AS IT WILL BE A FEW DAYS  
REMOVED FROM THIS MORNING'S LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT ALLOWING FOR  
PARTICULATES TO DRY AGAIN. THANKFULLY, THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST  
WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF NM, AWAY FROM THE PRIME DUST SOURCE REGIONS  
NEAR ROSWELL.  
 
CONCERNING PRECIPITATION, A SPEEDMAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE  
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL QUICKLY EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE CO ROCKIES  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MOSTLY  
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SNOW REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN HIGH TERRAIN  
INCLUDING THE CHUSKAS, TUSAS, AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS.  
 
MONDAY SEES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH ONE  
MORE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE GIVING LIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG THE CO  
BORDER. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED WINDY WESTERLIES REMAIN OVER MUCH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN NM,  
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD  
FRONT WILL BACK INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRESSES  
FURTHER INTO EASTERN NM TUESDAY, AND HAVE LEANED COLDER FOR  
TUESDAY'S MAXT AS A RESULT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1043 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY TO  
MID THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS EAST.  
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER CLEARER SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
MOST TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF  
THE SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPER OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVERALL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SOME  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WITHIN THE PECOS  
RIVER VALLEY AND VALLEYS IN THE GILA REGION AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY  
MORNING BURNING OFF SHORTLY AFTER.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 29 2024  
 
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM  
SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY, AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AND  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...  
 
AN AREA OF SNOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS  
EXPECTED. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT  
MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
A QUICK TRANSITION TO A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH  
LOWER RH. AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SLIDE OVER THE  
ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER FOR EASTERN NM. THE LATEST RFTI SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF  
EXTREME VALUES COINCIDING WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH, 20 FOOT WINDS ABOVE  
25 MPH, HIGH HAINES, AND MAX TEMPS UP TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. A FIRE WX  
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR  
FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RGV BUT CONFIDENCE  
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET GIVEN MARGINAL WINDS. POOR RECOVERIES ARE  
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE PLAINS WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER HIGHLY POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS. INCREASING MID  
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STAVE OFF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS WITHIN CENTRAL NM SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL  
FIRE WX IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NM MONDAY HOWEVER HUMIDITY VALUES  
ARE STILL MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY THEN  
ENTER EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY  
INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 57 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0  
DULCE........................... 53 21 54 23 / 0 0 0 0  
CUBA............................ 52 27 56 29 / 0 0 0 0  
GALLUP.......................... 58 24 60 30 / 0 0 0 0  
EL MORRO........................ 53 27 56 29 / 10 0 0 0  
GRANTS.......................... 57 24 61 25 / 5 0 0 0  
QUEMADO......................... 55 25 60 29 / 20 0 0 0  
MAGDALENA....................... 54 31 61 33 / 40 0 0 0  
DATIL........................... 52 27 58 29 / 30 0 0 0  
RESERVE......................... 57 23 62 24 / 10 0 0 0  
GLENWOOD........................ 60 34 65 31 / 20 0 0 0  
CHAMA........................... 46 18 47 21 / 0 0 0 0  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0  
PECOS........................... 51 31 56 34 / 0 0 0 0  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 31 49 34 / 0 0 0 0  
RED RIVER....................... 43 21 46 24 / 0 0 0 0  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 17 44 19 / 0 0 0 0  
TAOS............................ 52 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0  
MORA............................ 52 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0  
ESPANOLA........................ 59 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA FE........................ 52 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 30 61 32 / 5 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 37 64 38 / 30 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 35 66 36 / 30 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 32 68 32 / 30 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 33 66 34 / 20 0 0 0  
BELEN........................... 58 30 68 26 / 40 0 0 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 59 34 67 35 / 10 0 0 0  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 30 67 26 / 30 0 0 0  
CORRALES........................ 59 33 67 35 / 20 0 0 0  
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 31 68 27 / 30 0 0 0  
PLACITAS........................ 54 35 62 36 / 20 0 0 0  
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 34 66 35 / 20 0 0 0  
SOCORRO......................... 59 34 68 34 / 40 0 0 0  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 33 57 35 / 30 0 0 0  
TIJERAS......................... 52 31 61 35 / 30 0 0 0  
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 30 61 32 / 30 0 0 0  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 27 61 28 / 30 0 0 0  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 28 57 29 / 40 0 0 0  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 31 60 33 / 50 0 0 0  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 29 58 31 / 60 0 0 0  
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 34 61 37 / 50 0 0 0  
RUIDOSO......................... 45 33 57 32 / 40 0 0 0  
CAPULIN......................... 52 28 61 31 / 0 0 0 0  
RATON........................... 55 26 63 29 / 0 0 0 0  
SPRINGER........................ 56 25 63 29 / 0 0 0 0  
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 31 61 32 / 0 0 0 0  
CLAYTON......................... 49 34 70 38 / 5 0 0 0  
ROY............................. 49 30 65 32 / 10 0 0 0  
CONCHAS......................... 55 32 71 39 / 40 0 0 0  
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 35 65 36 / 60 0 0 0  
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 33 71 37 / 60 0 0 0  
CLOVIS.......................... 48 35 71 38 / 90 0 0 0  
PORTALES........................ 49 33 71 37 / 90 0 0 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 32 70 36 / 80 0 0 0  
ROSWELL......................... 54 36 73 38 / 60 0 0 0  
PICACHO......................... 54 37 69 39 / 30 0 0 0  
ELK............................. 53 35 67 39 / 30 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...42  
LONG TERM....24  
AVIATION...71  
 
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