705
FXUS65 KABQ 231727 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PRESSED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO KABQ AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
KSAF. THE MOISTURE USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT LATER THIS MORNING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING FOR A STRAY SHOWER ON MOUNT
TAYLOR OR THE JEMEZ MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, A DRYLINE OR PSEUDO- DRYLINE SHOULD SET UP ACROSS
EASTERN NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG IT AND SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM, BUT MLCAPE VALUES ARE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NM. CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS STORMS DEVELOP ON AND ROLL OFF THE
RATON RIDGE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH
HAIL FURTHER SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD LARGELY END BY 9 PM MDT, BUT A
FEW GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN, OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS WILL AID IN PUSHING THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THE MOISTURE SHOULD
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
NM TODAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME CENTERED
OVER NM. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT MORESO THAN
TODAY, BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA, SHEAR WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE, THUS THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW. MEANWHILE, ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR VIRGA AND/OR SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. LARGE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 800 AND 1500 J/KG
WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY VIRGA/SPRINKLE
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, GIVEN THE RISE IN H5 HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE. TEMPERATURES UP TO 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WILL BE
ON TAP FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT
HIGHS WILL BE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN SLOSH BACK TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/WEAKLY
CLOSED LOW. THROUGH MONDAY, A WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS SOCAL AND WESTERN AZ. AHEAD OF THE LOW, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO NM AT ALL LEVELS. IN FACT, FORECAST
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BECOME MOIST ADIABATIC THROUGH THE LAYER BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHAT THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY, BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND
STABILIZES MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FEWER
AND GOOD SOAKING RAINS WILL PREVAIL. AS THE SHORTWAVE/WEAKLY
CLOSED LOW INCHES EAST AND NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
MONDAY NIGHT, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AS WELL. THIS SHOULD MEAN WETTING RAINFALL FOR AREAS FROM THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BY 3AM TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN THIS
AREA MONDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME FEWER AS WELL.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM AFTER THE MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE PASSES, BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING REMAINS TO THE WEST.
COULD SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM
IF CLOUDS BREAK LONG ENOUGH FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR, THOUGH
SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE.
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAY PUSH FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY,
BUT THIS WOULD DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MIXING WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO DROP QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM, BUT CHANCES COULD DWINDLE TO NEAR ZERO ON THURSDAY
IF THE DRY SLOT PUSHES EASTWARD. LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN MODEL
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION ON
FRIDAY, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AND LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES
WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN AREAS,
BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF KROW. PATCHES OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STATUS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN KROW TAF. THE GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND LATE TONIGHT AT
KABQ IS STILL FORECAST, BUT SPEEDS ARE TRENDING DOWN AND
DEPENDENT ON WESTWARD BOUND OUTFLOW FROM AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIURNALLY SLOSH
ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE ON TAP AGAIN TODAY, WITH
LESSER COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS COULD SEE BETWEEN 5 AND 8 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH EACH DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, VIRGA SHOWERS MAY BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AT ALL
LEVELS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA. WIDESPREAD, MUCH NEEDED, WETTING PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO AT LEAST
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS ALL OF NM ON THURS
AND FRI. CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THESE DAYS, THOUGH THAT COULD TREND
UPWARD. WETTING RAINFALL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY ALSO PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 47 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 78 39 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 77 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 80 40 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 76 42 80 47 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 80 42 83 46 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 78 46 81 49 / 0 0 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 78 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 47 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 84 42 85 45 / 0 0 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 88 45 89 47 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 72 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 53 79 56 / 20 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 77 45 80 48 / 10 0 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 73 42 76 46 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 63 36 67 39 / 5 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 32 72 35 / 10 0 10 10
TAOS............................ 77 42 80 46 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 73 43 76 47 / 20 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 82 49 85 52 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 77 50 81 53 / 10 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 48 84 51 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 58 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 55 88 58 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 86 51 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 55 88 58 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 86 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 86 54 89 57 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 86 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 81 56 85 60 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 55 88 59 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 89 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 53 81 57 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 79 52 83 56 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 49 84 53 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 42 85 45 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 47 80 50 / 10 0 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 80 48 83 52 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 47 83 51 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 55 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 76 51 77 53 / 5 0 10 10
CAPULIN......................... 67 42 76 46 / 70 20 20 10
RATON........................... 72 43 80 46 / 60 10 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 74 43 82 47 / 50 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 44 79 48 / 40 10 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 72 49 83 53 / 50 30 20 20
ROY............................. 73 47 81 51 / 30 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 81 52 90 56 / 20 10 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 50 87 54 / 20 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 53 91 57 / 20 20 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 85 53 88 55 / 20 20 10 10
PORTALES........................ 86 53 89 56 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 52 90 55 / 10 10 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 89 57 93 60 / 10 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 83 52 86 54 / 20 0 5 10
ELK............................. 83 49 83 52 / 20 0 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
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