331
FXUS65 KABQ 131910
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
110 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL
ELEVATE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS THAT HAVE DRIED UP THIS
SUMMER MAY FILL WITH WATER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWING 1.01". THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MONSOON HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM NM. THE
INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ALL OF THE LATEST CAMS CONFIRM THIS
TREND AND ALTHOUGH THE OUTPUT ISN'T FAVORABLE FOR THE ABQ METRO
TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEY ARE
BULLISH FOR MONDAY BETWEEN 3-9PM. THE WPC SHOWS MUCH OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY, WITH THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN MONDAY THANKS TO THE ADDED MOISTURE
RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN-COOLING, WITH THE ABQ
METRO FORECAST TO STAY IN THE 80S FOR THE 1ST TIME IN OVER A WEEK.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST US, WHILE
A WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE PACIFIC NW AND GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW A MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME TO STAND UP OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED UPTREND IN PWATS THROUGH MID WEEK AND THEN REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORDS EACH DAY THIS WEEK, WITH THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY PERIOD BEING THE PEAK. THE RESULT WILL BE A WET PERIOD
WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE WPC SHOWS MUCH OF
OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WHICH LOOK TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS. WITH
INCREASINGLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCES THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
REQUIRED BOTH ON AND OFF AREA BURN SCARS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN- COOLING, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW AVERAGE MOST
AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, EXCEPT FOR LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING DUST DUE
TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. VFR CIGS MAY LOWER FURTHER THAN FORECAST
AT KGUP EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN
VFR. AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY AND IS BEING
ACCOUNTED FOR WITH PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS, EXCEPT FOR KROW
WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THE MONSOON HIGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
AND A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL STAND UP OVER THE REGION,
BRINGING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
DOWN THROUGH THE WEEK AND BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCEPT FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A DRYING/WARMING TREND MAY BEGIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 82 58 82 / 60 60 50 30
DULCE........................... 53 79 49 80 / 70 70 60 50
CUBA............................ 56 77 53 77 / 60 70 70 50
GALLUP.......................... 56 80 52 79 / 30 60 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 54 77 51 76 / 40 60 70 50
GRANTS.......................... 57 81 53 79 / 30 60 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 57 78 55 78 / 30 70 60 60
MAGDALENA....................... 62 80 59 78 / 40 70 70 60
DATIL........................... 57 77 55 76 / 20 70 50 60
RESERVE......................... 56 82 55 83 / 30 50 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 62 87 61 87 / 40 50 50 50
CHAMA........................... 51 72 48 74 / 70 70 60 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 79 59 77 / 30 70 70 60
PECOS........................... 56 81 54 79 / 50 50 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 77 52 76 / 40 60 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 49 68 46 67 / 30 50 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 74 41 73 / 30 50 40 70
TAOS............................ 56 81 52 80 / 30 60 50 50
MORA............................ 55 79 53 76 / 40 40 40 80
ESPANOLA........................ 63 85 58 83 / 30 70 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 60 81 57 79 / 40 60 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 84 56 82 / 30 50 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 86 63 84 / 20 60 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 86 63 84 / 30 50 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 88 62 86 / 30 50 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 86 63 84 / 30 60 60 40
BELEN........................... 65 88 61 86 / 30 50 60 40
BERNALILLO...................... 66 87 62 86 / 30 60 70 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 87 59 86 / 30 50 50 40
CORRALES........................ 65 87 62 85 / 30 60 70 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 87 59 86 / 30 50 60 40
PLACITAS........................ 65 85 62 83 / 30 60 60 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 86 63 84 / 30 60 70 40
SOCORRO......................... 69 89 66 87 / 30 60 60 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 81 57 79 / 30 60 50 60
TIJERAS......................... 63 82 59 81 / 30 60 50 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 84 57 82 / 20 60 50 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 86 53 83 / 20 50 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 83 56 80 / 30 50 50 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 83 58 81 / 30 60 60 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 84 57 81 / 30 50 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 87 63 83 / 30 30 50 40
RUIDOSO......................... 59 79 58 77 / 30 50 50 70
CAPULIN......................... 58 84 55 74 / 20 30 20 50
RATON........................... 55 87 54 80 / 20 30 20 50
SPRINGER........................ 58 89 55 83 / 30 30 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 82 56 80 / 30 30 40 50
CLAYTON......................... 66 92 64 83 / 20 30 30 30
ROY............................. 63 87 60 83 / 30 30 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 69 95 66 90 / 20 30 40 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 91 65 87 / 20 50 60 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 97 68 92 / 30 20 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 67 95 67 92 / 30 10 30 50
PORTALES........................ 68 96 68 93 / 20 10 30 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 95 67 91 / 20 30 40 30
ROSWELL......................... 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 40 30
PICACHO......................... 64 90 63 88 / 20 60 50 60
ELK............................. 61 87 60 85 / 20 40 40 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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