090
FXUS65 KABQ 301142 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
- DRY STORMS AND GUSTY SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. DRY STORMS MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
- BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
- STRONG WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA HAVE DISSIPATED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
DECAYING BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO WESTERN NM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW
DRY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAS
TRENDED DOWN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. VIRGA SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NM IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THE EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
BE IN THE 40 TO 55F DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, SO
AMPLE EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. GIVEN LOW SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THESE DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE SOME PATCHY
BLOWING DUST, WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS WILL
RAPIDLY DECAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER
SEASONABLY HOT DAY WITH RECORD HIGHS BROKEN, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN
AREAS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO WESTERN NM ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EJECT INLAND INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK LIFT ALOFT WILL HELP TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WESTERN NM ONCE AGAIN, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SFC BASED CAPE. THE BEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN NM AND IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS,
WITH LESSER COVERAGE IN CENTRAL AREAS. THE INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL TRANSLATE TO STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE AREA AND ANY GUSTY
SHOWERS THAT TO DEVELOP WILL MIX DOWN THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN FAR WESTERN NM WHERE THERE
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AMD ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE (200-300% OF NORMAL) IN
PLACE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS, FOCUSING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOTABLY
TRENDED STRONGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHERE THERE IS NOW A 40-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A CLEARLY DEFINED PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL
RAPIDLY SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
AND IT COULD KICK UP SOME DUST AS IT MOVES DOWN INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AS WELL. THE WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHORTER
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS, WITH THE LONG PERIOD OF POPS
ACCOUNTING FOR TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BUT REBOUND QUITE RAPIDLY
THURSDAY FROM SUBSIDENCE.
TYPICAL SPRING WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE. A POTENT TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE WEEK, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
TOO DRY FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. A MINORITY OF MODELS (AROUND 25%) ARE
SHOWING A LAGGING SHORTWAVE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS TROUGH, WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN FAR NORTHERN NM ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE DRIER SOLUTIONS APPEARS TO BE WINNING OUT IN THE LONG-
TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL LIKELY TREND WEAKER OVER THE WEEKEND AS NEW MEXICO GETS
STUCK IN-BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
POTENTIALLY COLDER IN EASTERN NM BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE AROUND 18Z, EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION WILL DECAY AFTER
AROUND 02Z, GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. BKN CEILINGS
BETWEEN 10KFT AND 15KFT WILL BE COMMONPLACE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN ALL AREAS. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE WEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTHERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
WIND SPEEDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SLIGHTLY WEAKER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A FEW HOURS
OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS BUT THEY WERE NOT DEEMED
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE. MEANWHILE, GUSTY SHOWERS
AND A FEW DRY STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN WESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
FUELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY IN THIS AREA (RECORD DRYNESS FOR THE
DATE) SO THERE IS A THREAT THAT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
START NEW FIRES. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECAY DURING THE
EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GUSTY
SHOWERS AND A FEW DRY STORMS WILL BE A CONCERN IN WESTERN NM AGAIN
ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHERE THERE IS A 70%+ CHANCE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER FURTHER SOUTH, BUT STILL
BENEFICIAL NONETHELESS. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ON
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NM. HOWEVER, THE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS HERE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THAT WILL NOT BE THE CASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND DRIER WESTERLIES TAKE OVER. THERE IS NOW
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE CHANCES IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS TREND WEAKER NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPS COOL
DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2026
KCAO REACHED 83F YESTERDAY, BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 81F
SET IN 1943, 2012, AND 2021. THE DAILY RECORD WAS ALSO TIED AT
KABQ (81F). SEVERAL OTHER SITES AROUND THE ENTIRE REGION,
INCLUDING KTCC, KGUP, AND KLVS ALL BROKE DAILY RECORDS AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL RECORDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN TODAY, BUT NOT ANY
ANY OF THE LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 47 74 48 / 10 10 10 70
DULCE........................... 74 33 70 35 / 10 10 30 80
CUBA............................ 73 40 70 41 / 20 20 20 60
GALLUP.......................... 75 40 69 42 / 30 20 10 50
EL MORRO........................ 71 43 66 42 / 30 20 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 76 43 71 40 / 30 20 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 70 41 69 45 / 40 50 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 74 48 72 50 / 30 20 10 10
DATIL........................... 70 44 68 45 / 40 30 10 20
RESERVE......................... 76 37 74 40 / 40 30 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 80 42 78 43 / 40 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 70 34 63 34 / 20 10 30 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 48 68 48 / 20 20 20 60
PECOS........................... 74 41 70 43 / 10 20 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 70 41 65 42 / 10 10 20 50
RED RIVER....................... 61 37 56 37 / 10 5 20 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 30 63 31 / 10 10 20 50
TAOS............................ 75 35 69 36 / 10 10 10 50
MORA............................ 72 41 68 41 / 10 10 10 40
ESPANOLA........................ 79 41 75 46 / 10 10 10 50
SANTA FE........................ 75 45 70 47 / 20 20 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 43 74 45 / 10 20 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 52 76 53 / 20 20 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 51 77 52 / 20 20 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 48 79 52 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 51 77 53 / 20 20 10 30
BELEN........................... 81 45 79 50 / 20 30 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 81 50 78 53 / 20 20 10 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 44 78 48 / 20 20 10 20
CORRALES........................ 81 50 78 52 / 20 20 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 46 78 50 / 20 20 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 77 51 74 54 / 20 20 10 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 50 77 54 / 20 20 10 30
SOCORRO......................... 84 51 82 55 / 20 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 47 71 50 / 20 20 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 75 47 72 49 / 20 20 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 45 73 48 / 10 20 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 42 75 44 / 10 20 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 45 72 44 / 5 10 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 45 74 47 / 10 20 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 45 73 47 / 10 20 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 49 77 51 / 5 10 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 75 49 71 50 / 10 10 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 75 42 69 40 / 10 5 10 20
RATON........................... 79 40 75 39 / 5 5 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 81 40 76 41 / 5 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 44 74 44 / 5 10 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 85 52 78 44 / 5 5 5 10
ROY............................. 81 46 76 46 / 5 5 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 89 49 85 50 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 51 81 49 / 5 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 90 52 86 49 / 5 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 91 52 86 52 / 5 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 91 51 88 51 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 48 85 50 / 5 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 53 89 56 / 10 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 85 50 81 52 / 20 10 0 0
ELK............................. 83 47 79 49 / 10 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page