981
FXUS65 KABQ 141204 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH A RISK OF DUST STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY. THE RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN A
MODERATE RISK ON MONDAY.
- HOT, DRY, AND GUSTY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A MODERATELY STRONG EAST
CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS PROBABLY REACHING NEAR 45 MPH BELOW
TIJERAS CANYON IN ALBUQUERQUE, NEAR 40 MPH AT THE SANTA FE
AIRPORT, AND AROUND 35 MPH IN CARRIZOZO. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM.
THE MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY TO THE AZ BORDER BY
LATE MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION AS
A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS CROSS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL MARCH EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND POTENTIALLY ONTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND COOL AIR BEHIND
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE A STABILITY PROFILE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF RAIN SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY WARM SOME AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THEN THE
DISTURBANCES WILL STREAM OVER EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT PROBABLY
TRIGGERING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WHERE CAPE WILL GENERALLY
PEAK AROUND 1400-1800 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-45
KT. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES, AND 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM
100-200 M^2/S^2 IN SPOTS, SUGGESTS A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP WITH A RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THERE WILL BE A
GREATER RISK OF LOCALIZED DUST-STORMS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY
THAT COULD MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS BY DROPPING VISIBILITY BELOW A
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES IN DUST-PRONE LOCATIONS, SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON SATURDAY. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TODAY, WHERE SOME DRY OR MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WITH LOCALIZED 1/4 MILE
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.
WITH PWATS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AROUND 1 INCH, THE RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SHIFT WESTWARD BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY, WHERE WET MICROBURSTS COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH IN SPOTS. THE GROUND IS VERY DRY,
SO IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE MUCH OF THE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION,
STORMS WILL MOVE AROUND 20-30 MPH, SO THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING SHOULD BE PRETTY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXCEPT
IN ARROYOS WHICH WILL BE DANGEROUS PLACES TO BE TODAY.
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD, EXCEPT FOR
MORE NUMEROUS CELLS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN
SCARS, MONDAY SHOULD PRESENT A GREATER RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THAN TODAY, BECAUSE TODAY'S COOL
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ABATE BY THEN DESTABILIZING THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID, IN OUR BURN SCAR DASHBOARD WE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING BELOW THE RUIDOSO-AREA BURN SCARS FOR TODAY, BECAUSE OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS THERE AND DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS ON
HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN THE DISTURBANCES CROSS ALOFT.
OTHERWISE, BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AREAS TODAY COMPARED TO
SATURDAY, AND AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH
ONLY A LITTLE COOLING NEAR THE AZ BORDER. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND A
FEW DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AREAS, AND AS MUCH AS 13 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS WILL STEER MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHUTTING DOWN
CONVECTION, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW NOW LOOKS STRONGER
FOR TUESDAY, WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON
WEDNESDAY, WHEN MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE STILL FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SURFACE WIND GUSTS PEAK FROM 25-40 MPH. THE DRIER AIR WILL
ALSO ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR AVERAGE TO 9 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON TUESDAY, THEN AROUND 3-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND
100-105 DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH LOW 100S IN PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL.
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER
NM DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRACKS INLAND OVER THE CA COAST DRAWING ENOUGH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NM FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP STARTING
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, A SOMEWHAT MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
REACHES AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL PROBABLY ALSO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN STARTING THURSDAY. STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES MORE
PROGRESS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE FURTHER ENHANCING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW. ON SATURDAY, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE
WEST, AND MAYBE ALSO IN THE EAST DEPENDING ON HOW RAPIDLY THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS NM TO THE NORTHEAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A MODERATELY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND WILL CONTINUE BELOW GAPS IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE,
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE STABLE ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD, WITH DRIER ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
WETTER ACTIVITY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOVEMENT WILL BE
TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15-25 KT. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST (AT LOWER ELEVATIONS)
THAT MAY DROP THE VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE. HIGH RES MODELS
DEPICT CLUSTERS AND LINES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXITING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ONTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, DURING THE EVENING, AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS DISTURBANCES CROSS ALOFT. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS TODAY
AS STORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 60 MPH. WET MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE STORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
PRODUCE SMALLER WETTING FOOTPRINTS WITH SOME DRY OR MOSTLY DRY
MICROBURSTS IN THE MIX. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE THE MAIN MODE OF CONVECTION UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WHEN DISTURBANCES WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THE
FAVORED LOCATION FOR ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, WITH SOME SPOTTIER AND DRIER STORMS FARTHER WEST. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.
THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOKS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST
AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST RISK FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE NORTHWEST OF ALBUQUERQUE TO
THE FOUR CORNERS. RAIN TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY DECREASE ERCS SOME
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY STORMS SHOULD RETURN TO
NORTHWEST AREAS, WEST CENTRAL AREAS, AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 59 92 56 / 10 10 5 0
DULCE........................... 86 44 87 41 / 40 30 20 0
CUBA............................ 81 51 85 52 / 50 30 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 87 50 87 49 / 30 10 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 84 53 84 52 / 20 10 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 86 52 88 52 / 50 20 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 85 55 85 55 / 10 10 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 58 84 59 / 60 40 40 0
DATIL........................... 82 55 83 56 / 40 10 20 0
RESERVE......................... 92 52 90 50 / 20 10 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 98 55 95 54 / 10 10 20 5
CHAMA........................... 78 44 79 43 / 60 30 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 56 80 58 / 70 50 40 0
PECOS........................... 74 49 83 50 / 50 50 30 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 50 77 50 / 80 60 50 5
RED RIVER....................... 65 41 69 41 / 90 70 60 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 39 74 40 / 100 70 40 5
TAOS............................ 78 48 80 47 / 80 50 30 5
MORA............................ 69 47 79 48 / 80 60 30 5
ESPANOLA........................ 84 54 87 54 / 70 60 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 77 55 82 57 / 50 50 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 80 53 86 54 / 50 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 62 90 64 / 60 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 87 59 91 61 / 60 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 59 93 60 / 60 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 61 92 62 / 70 30 20 0
BELEN........................... 90 57 93 58 / 40 40 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 88 60 92 61 / 60 40 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 56 92 57 / 50 30 20 0
CORRALES........................ 89 60 93 61 / 70 30 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 57 92 59 / 40 30 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 83 60 88 61 / 60 40 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 60 92 61 / 70 30 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 92 63 93 64 / 50 50 30 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 55 85 57 / 60 40 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 80 55 86 57 / 60 40 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 52 87 53 / 50 50 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 49 88 50 / 50 50 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 50 82 52 / 50 40 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 52 86 54 / 40 50 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 53 85 55 / 40 50 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 60 86 61 / 40 60 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 74 55 79 57 / 60 70 50 10
CAPULIN......................... 64 45 73 47 / 60 60 60 30
RATON........................... 69 47 78 48 / 70 70 50 30
SPRINGER........................ 70 49 80 49 / 80 60 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 50 79 51 / 60 50 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 67 51 76 54 / 40 30 20 40
ROY............................. 67 50 77 52 / 30 50 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 72 55 84 57 / 30 30 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 54 82 56 / 20 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 55 83 59 / 40 30 10 40
CLOVIS.......................... 73 57 81 59 / 50 40 30 20
PORTALES........................ 75 56 82 59 / 50 50 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 57 84 59 / 40 40 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 82 62 85 63 / 50 60 20 20
PICACHO......................... 77 57 83 58 / 70 70 30 20
ELK............................. 78 55 83 56 / 70 70 70 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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