829
FXUS65 KABQ 100532 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MOSTLY THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND, TURNING MORE SPOTTY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TURN MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY,
WITH LOOMING CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN OFF IN THE DISTANCE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 574DM H5 CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CA COASTLINE WHICH IS MODELED TO SCOOP UP THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS
NOW TROPICAL STORM RACHEL AND BRING IT ASHORE THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OF RACHEL GETS SPUN UP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONGSIDE
INCREASING FORCING. UNLIKE THE MOST RECENT REMNANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENT INVOLVING POLO THAT ENDED SEPTEMBER, THE CORE OF THE DEEP
LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RACHEL WILL FUSE AND MERGE
MORE FULLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 LOW, STAYING MOSTLY WEST OF
THE REGION THRU SOCAL AND AZ. AS SUCH, THE WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS AND FLASH FLOODING RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT ARE
FAVORED TO STAY WEST OF THE NM BORDER. NEVERTHELESS, FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL FAVOR WESTERN NM
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
S/SW WINDS WILL PICK UP IN STRENGTH SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A JET MAX
ROUNDING THE SOUTHEASTERLY PORTION OF THE MERGING TROPICAL AND MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONIC SYSTEMS. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MOST AREAS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND LASTING
INTO SUNDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON MIXING, PEAK GUSTS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL REACH 35 TO 50 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FAST MOVING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, FAVORED TO
FINALLY REACH EASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREAFTER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAKE A
DOWNWARD TREND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BY THEN FULLY ABSORBED
REMNANTS OF RACHEL EJECT NORTHWARD OVER UT, WITH A DRYSLOT FAVORED
TO PUNCH INTO AZ/NM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SEE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITES
TREND TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYSLOT REMAINING MOSTLY DOMINANT
OVER NM, LODGED BETWEEN THE LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC TROUGH TO THE W
AND NW AND THE REMNANTS OF WHAT IS NOW HURRICANE SIMON BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THROUGH THE TX BIG BEND
REGION. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE DIFFERENCES B/W DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TRACKING THE H5 TO
THE N/NW TO SOUTHWEST WY BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST 12Z
GFS RUN HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AS WELL, TRACKING THE H5 LOW
STEADILY TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN UT BY THE
SAME TIME FRAME. THE PRIOR 06Z GFS RUN HAD TO LOW STALLING OVER AZ
AND PROGRESSING OVER NM MUCH LATER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF HURRICANE SIMON'S REMNANT
MOISTURE CAN STILL REACH SOUTHEASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT. SO THERE
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING RAIN CHANCES
OVER EASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT WILL BE
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE PRECISE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE H5 LOW
TO NM'S N AND NW.
ASIDE FROM RAIN CHANCES, RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF H5 LOW WILL INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
DUSTING COULD END UP GRACING ELEVATIONS <10K FEET.
THEREAFTER, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SWEEP WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE STATE BEHIND THE H5 LOW'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE
TO END NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL WITH
MANY NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF
THE SEASON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
FAINT AND MODIFIED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SEEP INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO SATURDAY WITH INCREASED, SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST QUICKLY, IMPACTING KGUP, KFMN, KGNT, K4SL, AND KE33
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD KAEG, KABQ, KLAM, AND
KSAF IN THE EARLY EVENING. ANY DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUICK WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KT AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY BEING
THE BIGGER AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. FARTHER EAST,
JUST FAIR WEATHER HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS S/SW WINDS STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE WILL BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE'S RACHEL
AND SIMON PUSH THRU THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY. A DRYSLOT WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGER SCALE STORM SYSTEM
TO THE N AND NW OF THE REGION AND SIMON'S REMNANTS WILL KEEP SOME
DRIER CONDITIONS THRU THE CENTRAL SWATH OF THE STATE. BUT OTHERWISE,
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TEMPERED BY EITHER SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN NM, MODERATE HUMIDITY IN CENTRAL NM, OR
SHOWERS/STORMS THRU SOUTHEASTERN NM DURING THIS STRETCH. DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES ENTER THE REGION BY LATE
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 74 55 76 / 5 30 50 30
DULCE........................... 40 70 45 71 / 5 40 50 60
CUBA............................ 47 70 50 70 / 0 30 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 49 72 49 73 / 0 20 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 46 69 46 71 / 5 40 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 48 72 49 74 / 0 30 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 48 72 50 72 / 0 30 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 52 72 54 73 / 0 20 20 20
DATIL........................... 46 69 48 71 / 0 30 30 20
RESERVE......................... 46 75 50 72 / 0 20 30 60
GLENWOOD........................ 53 81 55 77 / 5 20 40 70
CHAMA........................... 43 64 45 65 / 5 40 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 71 52 71 / 0 10 20 20
PECOS........................... 45 72 49 72 / 0 0 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 68 48 69 / 0 10 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 37 60 41 60 / 0 10 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 65 37 67 / 0 5 10 10
TAOS............................ 44 71 47 72 / 0 5 20 10
MORA............................ 40 71 46 70 / 0 0 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 49 77 53 78 / 0 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 50 72 53 73 / 0 5 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 74 52 76 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 77 60 79 / 0 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 77 59 80 / 0 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 79 59 82 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 78 59 80 / 0 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 54 79 57 82 / 0 10 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 54 79 58 81 / 0 10 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 79 57 82 / 0 10 20 10
CORRALES........................ 56 79 59 81 / 0 10 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 79 57 82 / 0 10 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 55 76 58 78 / 0 10 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 78 59 80 / 0 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 56 80 59 82 / 0 0 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 71 53 73 / 0 10 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 53 73 55 76 / 0 10 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 74 51 76 / 0 5 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 76 50 78 / 0 5 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 73 52 75 / 0 0 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 73 52 75 / 0 0 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 73 53 75 / 0 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 76 57 79 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 70 52 73 / 0 0 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 48 74 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 42 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 42 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 73 51 74 / 0 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 57 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 50 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 85 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 81 57 84 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 50 77 55 80 / 0 0 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...52
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