044
FXUS65 KABQ 132028
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
228 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN EACH AFTERNOON,
INCLUDING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS, WITH SATURDAY BEING
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
WITH A BROAD RIDGE TO OUR EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND
TROUGHING SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST, MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH TODAY'S 18Z ABQ SOUNDING COMING IN JUST
BELOW AT 1.15 INCHES. WHILE EARLIER EXPANSIVE MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING, WE DO STILL HAVE SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH FOR CONVECTION FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH, WITH THE BEST CHANCES POSITIONED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED, SCATTERED AT BEST. HOWEVER, WITH RAP
MESOANALYSIS PINGING AREAS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND A
DECENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH, SOME STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EMANATE FROM INITIAL STORMS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION
ON FRIDAY, WITH GREATER CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
INTERACT WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ALOFT, TO SUPPORT MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN TODAY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
STORM MOTION SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH OUR AREAS OF
MORE VULNERABLE TERRAIN INCLUDING RECENT BURN SCARS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
OUR WETTER MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY AS THE
WEEKEND PROGRESSES AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TRICKLES IN, WITH OUR
MOISTURE PLUME BECOMING NARROW AND FOCUSING ITSELF NEAR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN RESPONSE. ON SATURDAY, ANY CONVECTION
WITHIN THIS HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COULD
PROMOTE REPEATED CONVECTION OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS AND OTHER VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD, PROMOTING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SUPPRESSING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE, MAINLY
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER, LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PASSING DISTURBANCES MAY ALLOW FOR FOCUSED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEIGHBORING HIGHER TERRAIN HEADING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MOVING INTO MID-TO-LATE WEEK
REMAINS LOW AS LONG- TERM, ENSEMBLE, AND AI GUIDANCE STILL VARY ON
THE POSITIONING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS SUCH, DETERMINING THE
ULTIMATE DEGREE OF DRYING, WARMING, AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA IS PROVING A BIT DIFFICULT. THE CURRENT NBM
SOLUTION IS BEING USED, SUGGESTING MORE ISOLATED STORMS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH, BETTER REFINEMENTS TO THE
FORECAST CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND MODEL
SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE FROM SW TO NE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
FROM CENTRAL PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WESTWARD, WITH MORE
NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. VERY
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS, AS WELL AS THE CAPABILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS
WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER
01-02Z, BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT AROUND 06-08Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
CONSISTENTLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BECOMING FAIR TO EXCELLENT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN EASTERN ZONES, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OF 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY WILL BE LIMITED, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH. VERY BRIEF
OUTFLOWS FROM ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. STORM
COVERAGE BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOCUSED ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE GREATEST ON
SATURDAY, TARGETING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BEFORE EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS, WITH SATURDAY BEING
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. SCATTERED SLOW- MOVING STORMS AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A
WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL FORECAST SCENARIOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 86 62 90 / 10 30 5 0
DULCE........................... 54 85 53 87 / 10 30 20 5
CUBA............................ 58 84 57 86 / 30 30 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 57 81 55 84 / 10 40 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 55 77 54 80 / 30 40 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 58 83 57 85 / 30 50 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 57 77 56 81 / 40 60 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 61 82 62 83 / 40 50 30 30
DATIL........................... 55 78 56 80 / 30 50 30 20
RESERVE......................... 56 84 56 88 / 40 40 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 60 90 61 93 / 20 20 10 5
CHAMA........................... 52 78 51 80 / 10 40 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 84 61 81 / 20 40 30 20
PECOS........................... 56 86 56 86 / 10 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 82 55 82 / 20 20 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 47 71 47 71 / 20 40 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 78 40 74 / 10 50 20 40
TAOS............................ 57 84 56 85 / 20 20 20 20
MORA............................ 54 82 53 82 / 10 50 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 64 91 62 92 / 20 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 60 86 60 88 / 10 10 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 88 59 89 / 10 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 66 88 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 91 67 90 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 93 66 90 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 92 67 90 / 20 10 20 10
BELEN........................... 66 93 65 94 / 20 10 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 66 92 65 91 / 20 10 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 92 63 92 / 20 10 20 10
CORRALES........................ 66 93 66 91 / 20 10 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 92 64 93 / 20 10 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 65 89 64 88 / 20 10 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 91 67 92 / 20 10 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 68 93 68 91 / 30 30 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 85 59 86 / 20 10 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 62 86 61 87 / 20 10 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 86 59 87 / 20 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 89 55 89 / 10 10 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 85 58 84 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 87 58 87 / 20 10 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 86 58 86 / 20 10 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 40
RUIDOSO......................... 58 84 58 79 / 5 50 10 80
CAPULIN......................... 57 84 56 83 / 30 40 30 70
RATON........................... 56 88 56 86 / 20 50 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 57 90 57 90 / 10 40 30 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 88 56 83 / 5 10 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 64 94 64 90 / 20 10 20 40
ROY............................. 61 91 61 90 / 10 5 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 68 98 67 98 / 5 5 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 94 66 94 / 5 5 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 100 69 98 / 5 5 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 69 96 68 94 / 5 10 10 20
PORTALES........................ 70 98 69 97 / 5 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 97 68 96 / 5 5 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 71 99 71 98 / 5 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 65 92 65 92 / 5 60 20 60
ELK............................. 60 88 61 87 / 5 40 20 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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