352
FXUS65 KABQ 190556 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
- WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S ON TAP INTO
THE WEEKEND. HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE EXTREMELY SENSITIVE
TO HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING AND/OR HYDRATION. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO FAVOR SATURDAY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE THROUGH EASTERN NM SUNDAY,
LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS LIKELY TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION TODAY AS THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG, POSSIBLY HISTORICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER SOUTHERN
NV AND CA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR REFERENCE, THE LAS VEGAS, NV 12Z
SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A 500MB HEIGHT OF 593DM, WHICH APPEARS
TO BE THE HIGHEST 500MB HEIGHT EVER FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH (AND
APRIL) ON THEIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY RECORD. 593DM WOULD ALSO BE A
90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHT FOR AUGUST, NORMALLY THEIR HOTTEST TIME
PERIOD. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT THE NEARLY UNHEARD OF EARLY
SEASON HEAT IS FAST APPROACHING NM. FOR TODAY, WE ARE SPARED FROM
THE ABNORMAL HEAT FOR ONE MORE AFTERNOON AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
TO HIGH 70S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEVERAL DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ABQ (3/18 RECORD
IS 80F), THOUGH THIS WILL BE OUR "COOLEST" DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT, OUTSIDE OF A FEW
NORTHWEST BREEZES NEAR FARMINGTON. GIVEN THE DRY NATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, SHARP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE LIKELY TO SET
UP OVERNIGHT, SPECIFICALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, GIVING WAY TO
COLDER TEMPS.
THE STRONG RIDGE INCHES CLOSER TO NM ON THURSDAY, LIKELY CENTERING
ITSELF OVER SOUTHWESTERN AZ BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FLIRT
WITH ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS. FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES
SPECIFICALLY, ROSWELL AND CLAYTON ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
SHY OF THEIR ALL TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH, WHILE ABQ IS FORECAST TO
BREAK IT BY SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHER THAN THESE POTENTIAL RECORD
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES CLOSER ON FRIDAY, CENTERING ITSELF OVER
SOUTHERN AZ. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NM CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH MORE
DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD TEMPERATURES IN JEOPARDY. THIS IS ALSO THE
FIRST DAY WHERE ABQ HAS A LOW (~15%) CHANCE TO HIT 90F FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS YEAR. FOR PERSPECTIVE, THE CURRENT EARLIEST 90F DEGREE DAY
FOR ABQ IS MAY 3, SO ANY 90F OCCURRENCE FOR THE SUNPORT WOULD
OBLITERATE THE OLD RECORD. HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM FOR FRIDAY, WITH LOW TO MID
80S ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TOWARDS TUSCON, AZ AND THE BOOTHEEL OF NM, FURTHER
AMPLIFYING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ACROSS NM. MID TO UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY
ACROSS LOW ELEVATION AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. IF WE DO
NOT REACH 90F IN ABQ ON FRIDAY, IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WE WILL ON
SATURDAY, WITH RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT. ROSWELL AND CLAYTON
ALSO LOOK TO TIE/BREAK THEIR ALL TIME MARCH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY AS
WELL. IF THAT WASN'T ENOUGH, THERE IS A LOW (~20%) CHANCE FOR
TUCUMCARI TO BREACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
IT'S GOING TO BE A HOT ONE. ALSO IMPRESSIVE ARE THE FORECAST
DEWPOINT AND RH VALUES FOR SATURDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW NEGATIVE DEWPOINT VALUES IN WESTERN NM, WITH WIDESPREAD SINGLE
DIGIT RH DROPPING AS LOW AS 3-4%.
SUNDAY SEES OUR FIRST REAL CHANGE IN CONDITIONS AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
IS SLATED TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NM SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS DIFFICULT GIVEN RATHER WIDE MODEL SPREAD, SO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY COULD FLUCTUATE
QUITE A BIT AS THE TIMING IS IRONED OUT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS OF
NOW, IT IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, SO IT
STILL GIVES SOUTHEAST NM TIME TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 90S. GUIDANCE
IS ALSO PINGING THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, PRODUCING A BREEZY GAP WIND FOR ABQ SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH "COOLER" ACROSS EASTERN
NM WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE HIGH 60S TO 70S, THOUGH THIS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MARCH. ALONGSIDE THIS COLD
FRONT, ZONAL FLOW WORKS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE, DECREASING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RIDGE TO REBUILD TO THE WEST OF NM IN THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
TROUGHING PATTERN OFF THE WEST COAST OF CONUS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. BREEZY NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS
AT KSAF DEVELOPING LATER OVERNIGHT INTO MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE 90F COULD LEAD TO SOME DENSITY
ALTITUDE CONCERNS AT KROW AND KABQ DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM MDT WED MAR 18 2026
WHILE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LAY OVER
THE STATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND IF NOT BEYOND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
RH PORTION OF THE RFTI TO RISE TO 3-4 MOST DAYS AS RH VALUES FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW 5%. WINDS WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR MOST DAYS WITH
WINDS ONLY UP TO 10-15MPH. DURING THESE DRY DAYS, RAPID FIRE SPREAD
DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND, BUT FIRES WILL BE
ABLE TO START EASILY GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
SUNDAY BEHIND A STIFF BACKDOOR FRONT PRODUCING STRONGER NORTHERLY
WINDS, THOUGH RH VALUES MAY RISE ABOVE 15% AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH. A FEW DAYS OF BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY RETURN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AND RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WHILE WINDS ARE NOT MUCH OF
A FACTOR THIS WEEKEND, THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOW RH VALUES WILL WORK TO
DRY UP A VAST MAJORITY OF BOTH FINE FUELS AND TIMBER THIS WEEKEND.
SINGLE DIGIT RH HOURS MAY RANGE FROM 8-12, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRIME FUELS AND RAISE ERCS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE A PRIMER FOR A MORE EXTENDED FIRE WEATHER
SEASON IF/WHEN WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 39 82 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 80 32 84 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 38 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 31 84 34 85 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 82 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 34 85 37 86 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 38 83 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 42 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 88 40 90 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 92 45 96 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 75 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 38 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 75 23 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 28 81 32 84 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 41 81 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 87 42 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 83 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 90 46 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 88 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 38 88 41 91 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 89 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 88 41 92 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 46 90 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 88 42 91 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 49 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 88 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 90 49 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 47 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 85 39 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 80 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 83 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 86 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 40 78 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 36 81 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 34 84 37 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 82 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 42 83 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 40 90 42 92 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 87 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 90 43 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 48 91 48 93 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 92 45 94 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 90 42 93 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 92 47 93 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 49 89 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...44/53
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