749
FXUS65 KABQ 251716 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1116 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
GUSTS WILL COMMONLY REACH 45 TO 55 MPH, EXCEPT AROUND 60 MPH
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD, AND OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS, WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN US TODAY,
STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SOME FROM YESTERDAY
AND INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM NOON TO 8 PM
TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY STEERING A STRONG JET STREAK
OVER THE STATE WITH 700-500 MB WIND SPEEDS VARYING BETWEEN 40-70
KT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENT LEE TROUGH SOUTH OF A ~992 MB
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES SUNDAY, CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS SHOULD MIX BETWEEN 13,000-16000 FEET, WITH THERMALS
TAPPING INTO THAT STRONG MOMENTUM ALOFT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ON SUNDAY SHOULD COMMONLY PEAK BETWEEN 45-55 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH ON MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO IS NOW FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS KS
SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE JET CORE LINGERS OVER NM ENABLING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS ON PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO REACH AROUND 50 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND UP TO
45 MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO SPREAD SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL ONLY
RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, EXCEPT A UP TO
ABOUT 0.25" NEAR THE CO BORDER. A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW IS FORECAST ABOVE 9500' IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT
AROUND 2" IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS ABOVE CHAMA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
EXISTS FOR GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS THAT COULD PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, OR IN AN ARC FROM
GALLUP, TO GRANTS, TO ALBUQUERQUE, TO MORIARTY, TO LAS VEGAS, AND
TO RATON; AND, ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE CO
BORDER.
THE STRONG WINDS, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND SPOTTY DRY STORMS WILL
CREATE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, AND ALSO ALONG AND EAST OF I-25, ON
SUNDAY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM, OR SO. AGAIN, THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY
LIGHTNING WILL MOSTLY BE RELEGATED TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM, AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY VARYING FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9
DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES, READINGS WILL FALL AS MUCH AS 8
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES OVER WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY AS EASTERN
READINGS CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN MONDAY, AND TO A
GREATER EXTENT TUESDAY, AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE
WESTERN US, THEN PASSES JUST NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN BRISK BOTH DAYS, AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BOTH DAYS. WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY PEAK IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
OVER WESTERN AREAS MONDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AT THIS TIME WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS LOOK TO WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY, WHILE
STRENGTHENING SOME OVER EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF AVERAGE ON
MONDAY, EXCEPT AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE NORTHWEST.
READINGS SHOULD THEN REBOUND A FEW TO 8 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER WEATHER
AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND WETTING RAIN SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PLOWS EASTWARD ACROSS NM. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE GENERALLY DELAYED THE ONSET OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, AND THEY KEEP IT GOING THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE TAPERING IT OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FEEDING INTO THE
SYSTEM COULD PACK STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY OVER EASTERN
AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR
CIGS. LOWERING OF CIGS MAY APPROACH MVFR CATEGORY AT KFMN AND KGUP
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE,
BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE EXPANDING THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR SUNDAY WESTWARD TO THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BASIN, AND
RANGE, WHERE RFTIS AROUND 5-6 ARE FORECAST WITH ERCS AROUND THE 75TH
PERCENTILE. FURTHER, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY
LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY IN THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40. STRONG WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN RETURN
ON TUESDAY, WITH CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH
DAYS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. OF THE TWO
DAYS, TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST CRITICAL DUE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND BECAUSE OF WEAK RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEING INDUCED
BY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.
NONETHELESS, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 45 65 38 / 5 40 50 20
DULCE........................... 66 37 59 34 / 5 60 70 30
CUBA............................ 66 38 64 33 / 5 20 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 66 36 63 30 / 10 10 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 63 37 62 32 / 5 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 36 67 32 / 5 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 66 40 65 32 / 5 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 45 71 39 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 66 40 65 34 / 5 5 0 0
RESERVE......................... 71 38 68 30 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 76 40 73 34 / 5 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 60 34 53 31 / 5 70 80 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 45 65 40 / 5 20 30 5
PECOS........................... 68 39 67 34 / 0 20 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 39 58 36 / 0 30 50 20
RED RIVER....................... 57 33 49 29 / 0 30 60 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 60 29 57 27 / 0 30 40 10
TAOS............................ 67 36 63 33 / 0 30 40 10
MORA............................ 67 39 65 34 / 0 10 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 74 43 72 39 / 0 20 30 5
SANTA FE........................ 69 43 67 37 / 0 20 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 41 71 37 / 0 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 51 74 45 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 48 75 44 / 5 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 45 78 42 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 47 75 43 / 5 10 10 0
BELEN........................... 79 44 79 41 / 5 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 76 46 76 42 / 5 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 42 78 39 / 5 5 5 0
CORRALES........................ 76 47 76 42 / 5 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 42 78 39 / 5 5 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 73 48 73 44 / 5 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 48 75 43 / 5 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 49 81 44 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 46 68 41 / 5 10 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 70 45 71 41 / 5 10 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 42 72 39 / 0 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 34 74 32 / 0 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 42 69 35 / 0 10 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 44 72 38 / 0 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 44 72 38 / 0 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 53 76 46 / 0 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 50 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 37 68 34 / 0 10 10 0
RATON........................... 73 37 71 36 / 0 10 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 75 40 73 38 / 0 5 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 41 69 37 / 0 10 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 77 43 78 43 / 0 10 10 0
ROY............................. 75 44 74 41 / 0 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 82 48 84 48 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 45 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 50 86 49 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 83 50 86 48 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 85 49 88 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 47 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 55 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 52 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 50 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-123-125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104>106-109-123>126.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ215-221>224-226>229-233-239-240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11
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