476
FXUS65 KABQ 311147 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TODAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. DRY
STORMS MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
- BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ARRIVE LATE TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
- STRONG WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURNS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THRU TONIGHT. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF WET/DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY. MODEL DCAPES ARE STILL PROJECTED AT 400
TO 800 J/KG SO GUSTY AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. IMPROVING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH A 95-105KT SPEED MAX
ENTERING NORTHWEST NM TONIGHT ALONG WITH PWATS RISING TO BETWEEN
0.50 AND 0.70" WILL PROVIDE MORE EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESSES AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM. THE LATEST 00Z HREF AND REFS PROBS OF QPF >0.25" BY
6AM WEDNESDAY AVERAGE >80% OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN WHILE
THE NBM IS IN THE 40-60% RANGE. THE NBM CATCHES UP WITH THE HIGHER
PROBS WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN JET ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NM. TOTAL QPF FROM WPC
WITH CLOSE AGREEMENT FROM AIGFS AND ECMWF-AIFS SHOW 0.75-1.25"
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN WITH VALUES DECREASING FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL NM. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
TYPICAL HIGHER VALUES >1.25" ON WEST-FACING SLOPES ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST. SNOW LEVELS ARE ALSO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
RATIOS WILL PROMOTE A WETTER TYPE ACCUM OF 5-10" ABOVE 9,000 FEET
(MAINLY THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS RANGES). NBM, HREF, AND REFS 50TH
PERCENTILE ACCUMS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTER WX ADVISORY BUT THE
LATEST WSSI (WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX) BARELY SHOWS MINOR
IMPACTS AND NOT EVEN IN THE RURAL POPULATION AREAS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SURGES EAST WITH 700MB
WINDS NEAR 50KT AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR 990MB OVER SOUTHEAST CO.
THE HREF AND REFS PROB WIND GUSTS >40 MPH AVERAGE 70-90% ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND PARTS OF THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE PROBS DECREASE REMARKABLY FOR
GUSTS >45 MPH SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON WIND ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, MOS GUIDANCE IS STILL PLENTY STRONG WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF WIND ADVISORY AND EVEN SOME LOCAL HIGH WIND WARNING
AROUND QUAY, HARDING, AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL AVERAGE 5-15F ABOVE
NORMAL THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VERY DRY AND FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS
IS EXPECTED BUT WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR WIND ADVISORIES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. IT WILL BE VERY DRY SO THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
RETURNS. A STRONGER PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SHOWN SURGING THRU THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES FOR A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEENS AND 20S LIKELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
WEST OF NM AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO
THE SOUTH THRU THIS PERIOD BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP
WITH REGARD TO MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS THE
MORE "MOIST" SOLUTION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
20S AND 30S WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. EITHER WAY, THE LIKELY OUTCOME IS THAT TEMPS WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
AREAS OF TURBULENCE THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WEST
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT AFTER 12PM. HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AFTER 1PM THEN MOVE
EAST NEAR 30KT WITH ERRATIC, DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
WILL BECOME WETTER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THRU MIDNIGHT.
THERE IS A 20-40% OF MVFR CIGS FROM NEAR KFMN TO KGUP TONIGHT
WITH AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AND MT OBSCURATIONS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2026
A MIX OF WET/DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. DEEPER MOISTURE ENTERING THE AREA TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN AND VERY
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. TOTAL QPF VALUES OF 0.75-1.25" ARE LIKELY FOR THE SAN
JUAN, TUSAS, AND CHUSKA MTS WITH ROUGHLY 0.25 TO 0.50" IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO, JEMEZ, AND ZUNI/SAN MATEO MTS. PRECIP VALUES
DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST BUT EVEN THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS
MAY PICK UP 0.10 TO 0.25". STRONG WEST WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY REMAIN ABOVE 20%
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. WE HAVE SEEN FIRE STARTS EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF COLD FRONTS WITH CLOUD COVER SO THE WIND COMPONENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. ERCS WILL STILL BE NEAR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND THE FIRE RISK
ASSESSED AGAIN WITH NEWER DATA TODAY.
THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE WINDY BUT MUCH DRIER OVER EASTERN NM IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. AN EVEN STRONGER
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS NM FRIDAY WITH VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS YET AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST EASTERN NM DESPITE COOLER TEMPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 72 47 62 37 / 20 70 90 10
DULCE........................... 69 34 54 31 / 20 90 90 20
CUBA............................ 69 41 57 33 / 20 50 80 20
GALLUP.......................... 69 40 60 31 / 30 60 80 5
EL MORRO........................ 67 43 56 35 / 30 50 70 5
GRANTS.......................... 72 42 61 32 / 20 40 60 5
QUEMADO......................... 70 43 60 34 / 30 30 60 0
MAGDALENA....................... 73 49 64 39 / 10 20 40 5
DATIL........................... 68 45 60 36 / 20 20 40 5
RESERVE......................... 75 41 65 29 / 20 20 50 5
GLENWOOD........................ 80 43 68 33 / 20 20 40 0
CHAMA........................... 62 35 47 29 / 20 90 90 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 46 56 41 / 10 50 80 20
PECOS........................... 70 42 57 35 / 5 40 80 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 41 52 36 / 10 60 70 20
RED RIVER....................... 61 36 48 29 / 20 70 80 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 33 50 28 / 10 60 80 20
TAOS............................ 71 38 57 31 / 10 60 70 20
MORA............................ 68 40 57 35 / 10 30 60 20
ESPANOLA........................ 76 47 63 38 / 5 50 70 20
SANTA FE........................ 71 46 57 40 / 5 50 80 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 45 61 37 / 5 40 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 53 65 45 / 10 30 60 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 52 68 43 / 10 30 60 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 51 70 41 / 10 30 50 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 53 68 43 / 10 30 60 10
BELEN........................... 80 50 71 39 / 10 20 50 10
BERNALILLO...................... 79 53 68 43 / 10 40 60 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 49 70 37 / 10 30 50 10
CORRALES........................ 79 53 69 42 / 10 30 60 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 50 70 38 / 10 20 50 10
PLACITAS........................ 75 53 63 44 / 10 40 70 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 53 67 44 / 10 30 60 10
SOCORRO......................... 83 55 74 43 / 10 10 30 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 48 60 43 / 10 30 70 20
TIJERAS......................... 75 49 63 39 / 10 30 70 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 47 63 40 / 5 30 70 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 44 65 34 / 5 20 60 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 44 60 36 / 5 20 60 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 46 64 39 / 10 20 60 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 46 64 39 / 10 10 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 50 68 43 / 5 5 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 71 47 63 41 / 0 5 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 70 42 63 33 / 10 20 20 10
RATON........................... 76 41 68 33 / 5 20 30 10
SPRINGER........................ 76 42 68 34 / 5 10 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 44 62 36 / 5 10 50 10
CLAYTON......................... 78 43 73 42 / 10 5 20 10
ROY............................. 77 47 67 38 / 5 10 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 85 52 75 41 / 0 5 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 51 72 44 / 0 5 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 50 77 44 / 0 0 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 87 52 79 45 / 0 0 20 10
PORTALES........................ 88 50 81 44 / 0 0 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 50 77 43 / 0 0 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 90 54 82 47 / 0 0 10 5
PICACHO......................... 82 51 75 43 / 0 0 20 5
ELK............................. 81 47 72 39 / 0 0 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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