733
FXUS65 KABQ 042323 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IN A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING FARMINGTON,
SANTA FE, ESPANOLA, MORIARTY, AND ESTANCIA. FOLKS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO PROTECT PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM A DAMAGING
FREEZE EVENT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FUTURE FIRE STARTS.
LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PLAINS IN ITS WAKE. THIS
SURFACE HIGH BROUGHT COLDER TEMPERATURES TO NM YESTERDAY AND LAST
NIGHT, AND TODAY'S TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
EASTERN ZONES. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH CHILLY, BUT
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT READINGS TONIGHT. A FEW MORE LOCATIONS WILL DIP
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT CERTAINLY A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT WARM STRETCH PRIOR TO
YESTERDAY. NO FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED, GIVEN READINGS WILL NOT
BE AS COLD AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING. BREEZES WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY, EXCEPT IN
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE GUSTS WILL BE A BIT STIFFER, REACHING 30 TO
35 MPH. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, FAINT MOISTURE BEGINS TO MAKE AN
ATTEMPTED RUN INTO SOUTHERN NM VIA SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND A
SPOKE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVERTISED IN 700-500 MB LAYER RH PROGS.
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEEBLE
MOISTURE INCREASE WILL TEND TO STAY OVER MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NM WITH
LOW 10-20% CHANCES THAT THEY BREACH OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO THIS 10-20% RANGE WITH A DRY
THUNDER MENTION, AS HIGH LCL'S AND A DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
LIMIT MEASURABLE RAINFALL PROSPECTS. HOWEVER, ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS FARTHER SOUTH COULD AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
ANY MOISTURE THAT CAN CREEP UP FARTHER INTO WESTERN NM EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ISOLATED, DRY STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON, AND LOW 10-20% POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE ANYTHING WILL INITIALLY
BE VERY HIGH-BASED DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THROUGH THE EVENING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS MODELED TO MOISTEN UP FROM NEARBY SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH WESTERN AREAS SEEING A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF MEASURABLE
RAIN PROSPECTS (TO 30% CHANCES). GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WOULD REDEVELOP
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY WITH SPEEDS SIMILAR, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, THAN THOSE OBSERVED ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SEASONABLE, STILL JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
A FEW SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE UPSTREAM IN AZ ON MONDAY, GRADUALLY
CROSSING INTO NM LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS NOT VERY DYNAMIC WITH MINIMAL BAROCLINICITY AND NOT MUCH EVIDENCE
OF A THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT PER ISOTHERMAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER, LI'S
DO DECREASE MORE, INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY INTO TUESDAY, EVEN
WELL BEHIND (WEST) OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS THAT WOULD MOVE
INTO FAR EASTERN NM BY LATE DAY TUESDAY. CONCEPTUALLY, THIS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE AN IDEAL PRECIPITATION SETUP, BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF QPF SLIGHTLY, AND THE NBM HAS A
BIG JUMP FOR TUESDAY. HAVE SCALED THESE BACK, BUT NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN ZONES HAVE STILL BEEN GIVEN LIKELY (60%) POPS WITH
GRADUATED REDUCTIONS TO SCATTERED COVERAGE (30-50%) ELSEWHERE.
A FLATTENING RIDGE WOULD THEN MOVE ACROSS NM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AMID THE ZONAL FLOW. A FEW HIGH-
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WOULD REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
TEMPERATURES BOOST SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INTO THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF CA. THIS WOULD START TO SPREAD STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT INTO NM WHILE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
ADVECTS MOISTURE TO WEST TX AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR SEASONAL DRYLINE TO START DEVELOPING
WHICH WOULD OF COURSE TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
SHOULD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ALIGN AND JUXTAPOSE. FOR NOW, NBM
COVERS THE EAST WITH 10 TO 30% POPS ON THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-
50% ON FRIDAY, FAR TOO HIGH AND CONFLICTING WITH ITS 20-30 DEGREE F
DEWPOINTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH VFR CIGS
IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT KROW SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST, BUT AS WE MARCH AHEAD FARTHER INTO APRIL, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL DAYS WITH ELEVATED, MARGINAL, OR NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WITH WESTERN NM ZONES OBSERVING THE LOWEST HUMIDITY OF
8 TO 15%. FAINT MOISTURE INCREASES LATE SUNDAY WILL YIELD A FEW HIGH-
BASED VIRGA SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STRAY DRY THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NM. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE A LOCALIZED
GUSTY WIND THREAT. MEANWHILE PREVAILING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A
BIT STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY HIT 30 TO 35 MPH, ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL OR SPOTTY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHERE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE HOVERING NEAR THE
15% CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NM INTO MONDAY, INCREASING THE DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
CONVECTIVE GUST THREAT THERE. A REPEATED ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS
IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE ANOTHER MARGINAL OR
SPOTTY THREAT FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO WATCHES
ARE PLANNED FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.
A BETTER SHOT OF MEASURABLE, BUT NOT NECESSARILY SOAKING, RAINFALL
ARRIVES TUESDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT CROSSES. HUMIDITY TRENDS UP
ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY, BUT THE
LIGHTNING AND NEW IGNITION THREAT WILL LINGER. PREVAILING WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE GUSTY (GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH) IN EAST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NM TUESDAY. DRIER, WARMER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THEN
RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO ONE
POTENTIALLY DEFINED BY THE SURFACE DRYLINE, SEPARATING DRY, WARM,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST AND MOIST AND PERHAPS STORMY
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 22 67 27 67 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 30 64 32 63 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 23 70 32 69 / 0 5 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 26 65 35 64 / 0 5 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 24 67 31 66 / 0 0 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 28 67 36 65 / 0 10 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 35 64 37 62 / 0 5 5 10
DATIL........................... 29 63 34 61 / 0 10 5 20
RESERVE......................... 31 71 31 68 / 0 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 38 74 35 71 / 0 20 10 20
CHAMA........................... 24 60 28 60 / 0 0 0 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 62 38 62 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 30 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 61 32 62 / 0 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 22 54 26 56 / 0 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 58 17 60 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 24 64 27 65 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 27 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 32 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 34 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 32 69 34 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 37 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 37 72 40 70 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 72 35 70 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 37 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 72 36 70 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 38 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 71 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 41 72 40 69 / 0 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 36 65 38 65 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 66 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 31 66 31 65 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 64 31 64 / 0 5 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 66 36 65 / 0 10 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 30 57 31 59 / 0 10 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 26 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 26 67 27 69 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 27 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 35 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 32 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 71 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 35 74 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 36 70 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 70 40 69 / 0 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 37 62 36 64 / 0 10 5 5
ELK............................. 34 58 31 60 / 0 20 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
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