550
FXUS65 KABQ 052329
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
- OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
IT'S A VERY PLEASANT WINTER DAY AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A REX BLOCK IS SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH
THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND A LOW OFF THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING OF THE LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TICK
UPWARD A FEW MORE DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES STILL PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
THE UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE SET IN MOTION THIS WEEKEND AS
THE SLOW-MOVING CLOSED PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INCREASE PWATS AND CLOUD COVER,
WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE TOP-DOWN SATURATION AND
UPPER LEVEL LIFT COMBINE TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, BUT SUB-CLOUD
EVAPORATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY LIGHT FLURRIES OR SHOWERS TO THE HIGH
PEAKS.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
TIMING/TRAJECTORY OF THE CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT OF NORTHERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE BORDER,
BUT AN INTENSIFYING JET STREAM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORCE THIS
LOW TO OPEN AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING REPLACES THE RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL FAVOR
INCREASED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS. HOW QUICKLY THIS PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS REMAINS A QUESTION
MARK, WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW QUICKLY THIS TROUGHING WILL
DEVELOP. GEFS AND GEPS MEMBERS FAVOR THE QUICKER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN, WHEREAS THE ENS HAS A SLOWER TRANSITION
AND KEEPS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH FURTHER WEST (TRANSLATING TO LOWER
PRECIP. CHANCES ACROSS NEW MEXICO).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS NO GREATER THAN 6KTS
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW AREAS NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN ARE
LIKELY TO SEE DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
INCLUDING KSAF AND KFMN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IN
FAR SOUTHWEST NM AS OF 00Z, AND THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA, CREATING SCT TO BKN DECKS OF HIGH CLOUDS GOING
INTO TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AND
TOMORROW THANKS TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDING ALOFT. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENTS SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY, HOWEVER
WETTING PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED.
POOR VENTILATION RETURNS SUNDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LIGHT LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 27 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 62 26 60 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 25 60 30 59 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 17 63 25 61 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 26 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 21 64 28 62 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 26 62 31 60 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 32 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 20
DATIL........................... 28 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 25 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 28 69 32 69 / 0 0 5 20
CHAMA........................... 25 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 57 37 56 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 28 62 32 59 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 29 55 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 48 29 45 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 55 23 52 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 24 59 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 27 64 30 60 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 25 64 30 64 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 31 60 36 60 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 37 62 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 23 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 31 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 30 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 63 33 66 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 34 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 31 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 34 59 38 59 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 65 28 64 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 33 60 39 59 / 0 0 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 28 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 65 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 22 67 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 65 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 67 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 65 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 28 72 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 71 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 73 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 72 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 73 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 71 33 70 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 29 68 35 67 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 33 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 30 68 36 66 / 0 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...77
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