873
FXUS65 KABQ 311950
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
- A HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SATURDAY. STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ABQ AND SANTA FE
METRO THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL RESULT IN
DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS ON NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS AND
HIGHLANDS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO TODAY, RETREATING TO NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE EXPANDING BACK EAST BEGINNING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
HAS HELPED PUSHED A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS PUSH THE 600 DAM UPPER HIGH
AT 500 MB WEST TO AZ THIS MORNING. HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
PWATS AROUND 1 TO 1.4 INCHES BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS RESULTING
IN A GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CURRENTLY. THE LATEST NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS THE RUIDOSO AREA THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED WITH TO YESTERDAY
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS INITIALIZING JUST WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BURN SCARS BEFORE MOVING EAST. STORM MOTION
LOOKS TO BE BRISK ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE THREAT SOMEWHAT BUT THIS WILL
BE WORTH WATCHING THESE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE AREA IS IN THE
CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS. THE RISK IS HIGHEST
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SPC INTRODUCING A SLIGHT RISK
LATE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL HELP DROP PWATS TO
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.9 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND HOT ACROSS THIS PART OF THE
STATE. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FARMINGTON, ALBUQUERQUE,
AND SOCORRO TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S. A
HEAT ADVISORY IS ALSO CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE ROSWELL AREA DUE
TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 105 BEFORE STORMS ALONG THE
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MID THIS EVENING. SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GILA MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RGV THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MID THIS EVENING DUE TO HIGHER MOISTURE OF PWATS AROUND 1 TO
1.1 INCHES LINGERING ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE.
BY MID THIS EVENING, STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL HELP PUSH THE BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN RESULTING IN A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND AT
CANYON OPENINGS INTO THE RGV. THE MET AND LAV GUIDANCE AT KABQ IS
SHOWING HIGH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS > 50 MPH LATE THIS EVENING AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SO A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ABQ METRO FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM SATURDAY. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE. STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM LOOK TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
TAPERING OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING WEST TO THE AZ BORDER COME SUNRISE SATURDAY.
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MIDDAY
WITH PWATS AROUND 1 TO 1.4 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. 60. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GET
GOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES MIDDAY BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 598 TO 599 UPPER HIGH OVER AZ. STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL DUE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO
45 KTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT MENTIONED ABOVE. THE FLASH FLOODING RISK WILL BE HIGHEST ON
RECENT BURN SCARS (I.E. RUIDOSO AREA) AND AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S AND
EVENING STORMS. RUIDOSO WILL LIKELY SEE TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST ROUND FROM STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SECOND ROUND
MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING AS STORMS FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS MOVE SOUTH. FOR THAT REASON, A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA FROM NOON TO
MIDNIGHT. FINALLY, THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DUE TO BEING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE 599 TO 600 DAM
UPPER HIGH OVER UT AND AZ. HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU (INCLUDING
GALLUP AND ZUNI) DUE TO RECOVERY OPERATIONS FROM FLASH FLOODING
EVENTS THE LAST FEW WEEKS. STORMS SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE FOCUSED
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN NOSING BACK EAST TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA SUNDAY BEFORE FLATTENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND BEYOND. DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL LOWER PWATS AROUND 0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES RESULTING IN A MUCH
LOWER STORM COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. WITH THE 594 TO 596 DAM 500 MB UPPER HIGH OVERHEAD ALONG
WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS, THE HEAT WILL REINTENSIFY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WITH UPPER 90S TO MID 100S COMMON
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU SUNDAY AND WILL
POTENTIALLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO SEVERAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES
COME MONDAY. PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 1 TO 1.1 INCHES
BEGINNING TUESDAY HELPING TO RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE APPEARS TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES
MORE CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND STRENGTHENS TO ~ 597-599 DAM AT 500
MB. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOTTER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST
WITH HIGHS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND GILA MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS AND LOWER RGV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH
ALL STORMS IN THE AIRSPACE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING
OFF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL PRODUCE A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND
AT KSAF AND ESPECIALLY KABQ MID TO LATE THIS EVENING LASTING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ABQ SUNPORT FROM 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING TO 3
AM MDT SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER MOISTURE AND STORM COVERAGE TO AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL
BRING HIGHER MOISTURE WEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND A STRONG EAST CANYON WIND THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL BE
HIGHEST ON AREA BURN SCARS, LOW LYING, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
AREAS. MEANWHILE, HOT AND DRY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER EXPANDS BACK EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STILL HOTTER THAN NORMAL WITH STORM COVERAGE GRADUALLY TICKING
UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 55 93 52 94 / 0 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 59 90 57 91 / 0 20 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 60 98 59 98 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 92 57 92 / 10 10 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 62 94 59 95 / 5 10 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 61 93 61 93 / 20 10 5 10
MAGDALENA....................... 64 91 62 90 / 30 20 20 20
DATIL........................... 61 89 58 88 / 30 30 20 30
RESERVE......................... 61 95 60 94 / 10 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 66 97 63 97 / 20 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 52 82 50 85 / 10 50 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 84 60 88 / 10 50 10 10
PECOS........................... 57 82 54 86 / 20 80 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 83 54 88 / 50 30 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 46 72 45 78 / 70 50 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 77 36 81 / 70 80 10 30
TAOS............................ 54 87 51 91 / 50 40 10 5
MORA............................ 52 79 50 84 / 80 80 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 62 91 59 94 / 20 40 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 61 86 60 89 / 10 60 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 90 58 92 / 10 60 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 94 65 95 / 10 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 96 64 97 / 20 30 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 97 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 96 66 98 / 10 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 65 98 63 99 / 30 10 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 96 64 99 / 10 30 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 97 61 99 / 20 20 20 0
CORRALES........................ 67 96 65 99 / 10 30 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 97 63 99 / 20 10 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 93 63 95 / 10 40 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 95 65 98 / 10 20 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 98 67 96 / 30 10 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 87 57 90 / 20 50 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 61 90 59 92 / 20 50 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 89 54 92 / 20 60 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 90 52 92 / 20 70 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 83 55 88 / 20 60 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 89 56 90 / 50 50 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 90 57 89 / 50 60 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 91 62 88 / 50 70 60 10
RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 56 81 / 60 80 60 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 82 52 90 / 80 50 10 0
RATON........................... 53 88 52 94 / 80 60 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 54 89 53 96 / 70 50 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 82 53 88 / 60 80 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 90 60 95 / 30 30 20 0
ROY............................. 58 85 56 91 / 60 50 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 61 99 / 70 30 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 90 60 95 / 60 40 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 94 61 99 / 80 40 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 92 63 94 / 80 40 30 0
PORTALES........................ 66 92 63 95 / 80 30 40 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 92 63 95 / 70 40 40 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 95 68 98 / 40 20 60 0
PICACHO......................... 65 89 62 92 / 40 40 60 5
ELK............................. 62 85 59 88 / 30 60 60 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-219-220-238.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NMZ219.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page