130
FXUS65 KABQ 071135 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY.
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM
WITH MORE THAN A HALF AN INCH NEAR ZUNI PUEBLO AND BETWEEN A
QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND NEAR GALLUP.
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40, AND THOSE LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP BETWEEN
A TENTH AND ONE QUARTER INCH. AFTER SUNRISE, MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, THUS THE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH STORM COVERAGE WANING
AFTER SUNSET. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER, WITH MOST LOCATIONS NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY APRIL.
DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NM ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST,
BUT NOT QUITE ALL, OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT. STILL,
CU BUILDUPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN APPEAR LIKELY AND VIRGA IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, THOUGH SHOULD BE SPARSE. NONETHELESS, THE
DRIER AIR AND LESS CLOUD COVERAGE OVERALL WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S READINGS. ALL AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN
NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH DAYTIME MIXING ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL MIX MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE OUT. NONETHELESS, CAN'T RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, A LOW CHANCE OF VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS EXISTS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO OVER WEDNESDAY'S
READINGS.
GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A STRONGER NORTHWESTWARD PUSH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND MAY REACH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER, DAYTIME MIXING WILL MIX SFC
DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS EASTERN
NM. MEANWHILE, A PACIFIC LOW WILL GET NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD WEST OF
THE CA COAST AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES IT FROM THE NW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. AS MOISTURE RETURN RAMPS
UP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS IF NOT
INCREASES AS THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON SOUTHEAST
NM, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REGENERATE ACROSS EASTERN
NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE AS HIGH AS 0.50" TO
1.00". DISTURBED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ON SATURDAY, BUT THE
AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEPEND ON IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR AND
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE SOMEWHAT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO CROSS NM ON
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT IF IT'S DELAYED AT ALL, THAT WOULD HELP
GENERATE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE PARENT PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE LATE SATURDAY OVER SOCAL,
THEN WILL ZIP EASTWARD OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS NORTHWEST
NM SUNDAY MORNING. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING THE WAVE TO EXIT NM BY THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY, SHUTTING DOWN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH ENSEMBLES LINGER THE PRECIPITATION A BIT LONGER.
NONETHELESS, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASED
MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD YIELD A BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE,
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN INCREASING OVER NM. WHILE
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST NM MONDAY AFTERNOON,
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FORECAST WINDS TREND UPWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS IF THE PATTERN HOLDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM, TO INCLUDE KXNI AND AREAS JUST SOUTH OF
KGUP, AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE LIFTING LATE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THEY SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST NM TOWARD SUNRISE WED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT TUE APR 7 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING,
THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, ENDING LARGELY BY
MIDNIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS EASTERN NM THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL. UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS ON TAP FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY, WHICH WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THE EARLIEST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST IS MONDAY PENDING HOW WET
THE FUELS REMAIN. IF FUELS REMAIN SOAKED AND ERC'S ARE LOW, THEN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD HOLD OFF EVEN LONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 39 76 41 / 20 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 66 29 70 28 / 50 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 63 34 70 38 / 60 30 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 65 29 73 32 / 30 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 36 69 39 / 40 20 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 65 33 74 35 / 40 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 37 71 40 / 50 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 42 71 47 / 60 20 5 0
DATIL........................... 58 39 69 43 / 60 30 5 0
RESERVE......................... 67 33 75 36 / 40 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 72 38 80 41 / 30 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 30 64 32 / 70 30 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 41 69 45 / 60 60 5 0
PECOS........................... 59 35 70 39 / 70 60 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 34 65 39 / 70 50 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 50 31 56 34 / 70 60 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 22 62 25 / 70 70 10 10
TAOS............................ 63 30 69 32 / 70 60 10 5
MORA............................ 59 34 68 37 / 70 60 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 67 38 75 39 / 50 50 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 39 70 44 / 70 60 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 37 73 41 / 60 60 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 47 75 51 / 40 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 45 77 48 / 40 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 42 80 46 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 44 78 49 / 40 40 0 0
BELEN........................... 68 39 80 43 / 60 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 42 78 48 / 40 40 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 38 79 41 / 50 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 68 42 78 48 / 40 40 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 39 79 43 / 50 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 45 75 50 / 40 50 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 44 77 49 / 40 40 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 46 79 49 / 70 20 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 42 70 46 / 60 40 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 61 43 72 47 / 50 40 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 39 72 42 / 60 50 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 29 74 35 / 60 50 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 36 70 41 / 70 50 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 40 72 43 / 70 30 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 39 72 44 / 80 40 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 44 73 48 / 80 40 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 40 67 46 / 80 30 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 62 34 70 37 / 50 60 10 10
RATON........................... 66 30 74 34 / 60 60 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 67 31 76 34 / 50 50 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 35 72 39 / 60 50 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 68 41 77 43 / 30 30 10 10
ROY............................. 64 36 75 39 / 40 50 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 69 40 82 43 / 30 30 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 39 80 41 / 30 30 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 42 82 47 / 20 20 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 63 40 78 47 / 30 10 5 0
PORTALES........................ 64 38 80 46 / 30 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 39 81 43 / 30 20 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 63 44 81 48 / 80 20 5 0
PICACHO......................... 59 40 77 45 / 80 30 10 0
ELK............................. 58 36 73 43 / 80 30 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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