983
FXUS65 KABQ 010721
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TODAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME RESURGES OVER THE REGION.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WEST COAST TROUGHING AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ARE ALLOWING A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO STAND UP AND
PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS ARE PERSISTING OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
NM IN WHAT IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN, BUT HAS BEEN
LARGELY ABSENT FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER. ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS
FORECAST, WITH CONVECTION INITIALLY FAVORING AREAS FROM THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT THEN MOVING
EAST OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS PER THE LATEST CAMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING TODAY IN RUIDOSO, BUT
THE LATEST CAMS ARE AVOIDING DIRECT HITS TO THE SCARS AND
FAVORING MORE INTENSE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF RUIDOSO. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY,
WHERE A MODERATE HEAT RISK EXISTS. PWATS TAKE A DIP ACROSS NORTHERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME RELATIVE DRIER AIR IS STEERED OVER THE
REGION, BRINGING A DOWNTREND IN COVERAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING
INITIATED CONVECTION. A MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY, WITH ROSWELL FORECAST TO REACH A HIGH
OF 100 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
THU/FRI OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND PULL THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
BACK NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, BRINGING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE PWATS AND AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. A MODERATE HEAT RISK
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS, WHERE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL TREND SLOWLY UPWARD AS THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD BACK WEST TOWARD NM. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO CENTER OVER FAR EASTERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
OVER THE WEEKEND, FOCUSING DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO
BACK OUT OF THE REGION TOWARD THE EAST NEXT WEEK, BUT MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GET PICKED UP BY A WEST COAST TROUGH
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS DEVELOPMENT
WOULD FAVOR WESTERN NM FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS INITIALLY, WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL NM BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NM, BUT
WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH FOCUSING FURTHER EAST THAN MONDAY'S ROUND. LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT KABQ/KAEG/KSAF
AND KROW TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE KABQ/KAEG TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AND ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WETTING STORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVING
GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. EXPECT A DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS WEDNESDAY, BUT A QUICK REBOUND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
FAVORING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THANKS TO A RESURGING
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 58 86 59 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 84 44 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 82 55 83 56 / 10 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 80 51 84 51 / 0 5 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 80 52 81 51 / 5 5 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 82 54 85 55 / 20 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 80 55 81 55 / 30 5 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 82 60 83 61 / 60 10 30 10
DATIL........................... 78 54 80 55 / 40 10 20 5
RESERVE......................... 87 53 87 55 / 10 10 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 92 57 92 59 / 5 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 77 48 78 49 / 10 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 83 60 / 20 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 83 56 85 56 / 40 20 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 53 82 54 / 40 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 71 44 72 45 / 40 10 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 36 78 38 / 40 5 20 0
TAOS............................ 84 50 85 51 / 30 5 5 0
MORA............................ 80 50 83 51 / 50 10 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 89 57 90 59 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 84 61 85 61 / 20 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 58 88 59 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 67 92 68 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 65 92 66 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 63 94 65 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 67 92 68 / 5 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 92 62 93 64 / 20 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 92 65 93 66 / 5 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 61 93 62 / 10 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 93 66 93 66 / 5 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 62 93 64 / 10 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 88 65 90 66 / 10 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 66 92 66 / 5 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 94 67 94 68 / 30 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 58 86 60 / 10 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 86 61 87 62 / 10 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 56 88 57 / 30 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 54 90 55 / 30 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 58 86 60 / 40 20 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 57 87 58 / 30 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 58 87 59 / 30 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 63 90 64 / 30 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 58 83 59 / 50 10 30 0
CAPULIN......................... 85 55 86 56 / 40 20 10 0
RATON........................... 87 51 89 52 / 50 20 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 87 52 91 53 / 60 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 86 55 / 40 20 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 92 64 94 66 / 10 30 5 0
ROY............................. 87 58 90 59 / 40 20 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 96 65 98 67 / 30 30 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 63 93 65 / 50 20 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 67 98 69 / 10 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 98 67 98 69 / 0 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 98 68 98 70 / 0 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 67 98 69 / 10 30 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 99 71 100 72 / 20 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 92 62 93 64 / 70 10 30 10
ELK............................. 90 59 90 60 / 60 10 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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