719
FXUS65 KABQ 171715 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MID
WEEK, WHILE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING INTO WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING AND THE
REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE
QUITE CHILLY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
THE FRONT MAY WEAKLY PUSH INTO SANTA FE THROUGH GLORIETA PASS, BUT
OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD WILL BE
UNAFFECTED BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES AND H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO LOWER. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN NM WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH (PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER
AT MT. TAYLOR). AS A SIDE NOTE, IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL STAY MAINLY EAST
OF THE BORDER, OVER THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES.
WINDS AREAWIDE WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER (MID 20S) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST ON
SUNDAY. SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, INCLUDING KCQC. DOWNSLOPING WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REBOUND. MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S
READINGS. EVEN WESTERN NM WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS H5
HEIGHTS RISE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A 1035-1037MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE 1035MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN OK BEFORE IT ELONGATES
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY EVENING. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A
STRONG EAST WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATTM, IT CERTAINLY LOOKS
TO BE A STRONG EAST-TO-WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EXPERIENCE
SUGGESTS MODEL GUIDANCE MAY TREND MORE TOWARD WHAT IS NOW THE 90TH
TO 95TH PERCENTILE NBM WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. OF COURSE,
THIS IS ASSUMING THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH
DOESN'T CHANGE. NONETHELESS, THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO EASTERN NM WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND
40S COMMON. WESTERN NM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM
SUNDAY.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
NM WILL RETURN TUESDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THUS, TEMPS
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL YO-YO BACK UPWARD. ANOTHER FRONT WILL NOSE
INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT A STRONGER, REINFORCING
FRONTAL PUSH WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SO, LARGE
TEMPERATURE SWINGS CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NM. MEANWHILE, THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WE'VE BEEN SEEING WILL FINALLY START TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND BY THURSDAY, FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY.
BUT, WHAT'S MORE EXCITING, IS THAT A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL OFF THE COAST OF CA ON THURSDAY SHOULD GET A NUDGE EASTWARD
FROM AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM, AND MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS
OF NM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
(PERHAPS AS LATE AS EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK) AND HOW STRONG THE
SYSTEM WILL BE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD (CLOSED LOW VS. WEAK OPEN
WAVE). PLUS, THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STAY PRETTY
FAR SOUTH, PERHAPS OVER MEXICO. THUS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOTS
OF UNCERTAINTY SO WE'RE NOT GETTING OUR HOPES TOO HIGH JUST YET.
UNTIL IT ARRIVES, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT ARE ALREADY RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 40KTS AT KFMN LATE THIS
MORNING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH MID DAY. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL
TREND DOWN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
EXCEPT FOR A GUSTY NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF SUNDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY OR NEXT
SATURDAY, BUT IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON
WHEN A PACIFIC LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM.
THEN ON SUNDAY, WESTERLY BREEZES WILL RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL NM.
RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT MOST DAYS, SANS MONDAY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SUB-15% RH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. THE HIGHEST VENTILATION RATES OF THE NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOST AREAS AT LEAST IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD CATEGORY. AFTER TODAY, POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 18 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 14 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 17 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 12 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 19 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 13 56 18 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 19 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 26 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 54 20 64 23 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 61 23 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 16 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 24 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 20 52 21 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 15 47 20 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 15 40 18 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 3 45 9 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 38 11 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 37 17 56 19 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 17 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 22 48 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 20 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 27 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 23 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 25 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 20 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 25 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 19 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 24 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 18 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 27 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 26 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 26 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 25 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 26 48 27 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 24 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 16 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 20 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 22 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 22 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 25 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 24 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 12 53 15 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 10 56 15 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 9 58 16 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 16 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 20 58 18 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 16 57 19 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 40 16 61 21 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 19 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 40 16 62 21 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 19 59 23 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 41 15 61 19 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 16 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 47 19 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 22 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 20 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
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