707
FXUS65 KABQ 221200 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN THE WEST SUNDAY AND
AREAWIDE MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR SCATTERED OCCURRENCES
OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY
FLOODING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND A MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKED OVER EASTERN TX, WILL DRAW VERY RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FLOODING IMPACTS LIKELY BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
FORECAST MODELS ARE GENERATING HEAVIER RAIN FARTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, AND SPREADING IT NEAR THE CO BORDER AND ONTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO,
WE EXPANDED THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO INCLUDE ALL ZONES ALONG THE AZ AND CO BORDER,
AS WELL AS QUAY COUNTY. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY
EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE ROOSEVELT AND CURRY COUNTIES AS WELL,
SINCE THE RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH WILL CONTINUE WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN A BAJA
LOW WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS TRIGGERING MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS ACTIVE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH, GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS SPIKE UP TO 225%
OF NORMAL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, EXCEPT UP TO 250% OF NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD (IF NOT RECORD) PWATS LIKELY. THE MOST
LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 2-4" IN MOST PLACES ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FORECAST AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST GENERALLY
VARY FROM 1-3 INCHES, EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER AMOUNTS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE (SERVES AS AN UPPER-END SCENARIO
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES) INDICATES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY ACCUMULATE 4 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 10 INCHES POSSIBLE
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. FARTHER WEST, THESE UPPER-END SCENARIO
AMOUNTS MOSTLY VARY FROM 2-4 INCHES, EXCEPT FOR LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE EXPANDED THE WATCH
TO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU INCLUDING FARMINGTON, BECAUSE THAT AREA
SHOULD HAVE THE MOST DESTABILIZING SUN TODAY, AND ATMOSPHERIC
FORCING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPIKE THERE THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD. IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE MODEL QPF IS UNDER FORECAST AROUND FARMINGTON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020
AVERAGES ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. HIGHS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT ON
WEDNESDAY AROUND 6-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WHICH WILL PLACE
THEM MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND 70S, EXCEPT FOR SOME 50S AND UPPER 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN TX BEGINS TO
MIGRATE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF COAST. MODELS DEPICT PWATS
BEGINNING TO TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY, WHILE REMAINING UP TO 180% OF
NORMAL OVER NORTHEAST NM. THIS WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR AND PRODUCE MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN ALL OF
THE ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE MAIN RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, AS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES, PROBABLY LIMITING SPOTTY STORMS TO OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THAT AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN OVER WESTERN AREAS STARTING SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST DRAWS ANOTHER
STREAM OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND
DRAWING THE MONSOON MOISTURE STREAM MORE SQUARELY OVER NM AGAIN.
GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS REACH AROUND 180% OF NORMAL OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY, SUGGESTING A FEW
STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE RAIN RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR
THERE WITH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ON FRIDAY, READINGS WILL REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING
UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER EASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY;
WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING LATE MORNING.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE, BECOMING NUMEROUS DURING EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH WET MICROBURSTS AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 45 KT. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MAINLY
TOWARD THE NORTH TONIGHT AT SPEEDS FROM 15-35 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WITH THE POWERFUL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. FEW IF ANY STORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THEN, STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 55 66 53 / 40 60 50 50
DULCE........................... 75 43 61 42 / 70 80 80 70
CUBA............................ 71 49 60 49 / 60 70 90 80
GALLUP.......................... 74 49 62 45 / 60 70 70 40
EL MORRO........................ 70 47 59 45 / 70 80 80 60
GRANTS.......................... 72 51 61 49 / 60 80 80 70
QUEMADO......................... 73 52 61 48 / 70 80 80 60
MAGDALENA....................... 72 53 61 52 / 70 90 100 70
DATIL........................... 69 51 58 49 / 70 90 100 60
RESERVE......................... 75 54 65 50 / 60 90 90 40
GLENWOOD........................ 80 57 70 53 / 60 90 90 40
CHAMA........................... 67 45 56 45 / 70 80 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 53 60 52 / 60 80 100 90
PECOS........................... 70 51 61 51 / 60 80 100 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 49 60 50 / 30 60 90 90
RED RIVER....................... 62 42 54 43 / 40 70 100 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 34 57 35 / 60 80 100 90
TAOS............................ 73 47 63 47 / 50 70 100 90
MORA............................ 67 50 60 50 / 60 90 100 90
ESPANOLA........................ 79 54 66 54 / 50 80 100 90
SANTA FE........................ 72 53 62 53 / 70 80 100 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 53 64 52 / 60 80 100 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 57 66 57 / 70 80 100 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 57 66 56 / 70 90 90 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 58 66 58 / 70 90 90 80
BELEN........................... 79 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70
BERNALILLO...................... 79 57 67 56 / 70 80 100 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 55 68 53 / 70 90 90 70
CORRALES........................ 79 58 67 57 / 70 80 90 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 57 68 55 / 60 90 90 70
PLACITAS........................ 77 56 65 56 / 70 80 100 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 58 66 57 / 70 80 90 80
SOCORRO......................... 80 59 68 57 / 70 90 100 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 52 62 51 / 80 80 100 80
TIJERAS......................... 74 54 63 53 / 70 80 100 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 52 64 51 / 60 90 100 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 50 66 49 / 60 90 100 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 50 63 50 / 70 90 100 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 73 52 64 51 / 70 100 100 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 73 53 65 52 / 60 100 100 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 57 68 55 / 60 90 100 70
RUIDOSO......................... 69 53 63 52 / 70 90 100 70
CAPULIN......................... 71 51 64 51 / 30 70 80 90
RATON........................... 74 51 66 51 / 30 60 80 90
SPRINGER........................ 76 52 68 52 / 30 80 90 90
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 52 62 52 / 50 90 100 90
CLAYTON......................... 75 58 71 57 / 20 70 80 90
ROY............................. 72 55 66 54 / 30 90 90 100
CONCHAS......................... 80 61 74 60 / 40 90 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 60 70 60 / 40 90 90 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 61 76 59 / 30 80 80 90
CLOVIS.......................... 80 59 76 59 / 40 70 80 90
PORTALES........................ 81 60 77 61 / 40 70 80 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 61 76 61 / 40 90 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 86 63 79 62 / 40 80 80 90
PICACHO......................... 78 59 70 58 / 60 90 100 80
ELK............................. 75 56 67 55 / 70 90 90 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ201>234-237>241.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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