130
FXUS65 KABQ 161929
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
129 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM, THEN
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
RELAX AND THE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM WILL DECREASE.
ADDITIONALLY, FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, MUCH
DRIER AIR HAS MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SET UP EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS
EXPECTED. A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPED BELOW FREEZING LAST NIGHT,
NAMELY LAS VEGAS, MORIARTY AND ESTANCIA, THUS THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED IN THOSE LOCATIONS AND THE FREEZE WATCH WAS CANCELLED.
OTHERWISE, THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS STILL EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. HAVE ALSO ADDED ALL OF CHAVES COUNTY INTO THE
FREEZE WARNING. A FEW CAVEATS: AREAS AROUND FARMINGTON ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FREEZE, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF BURNHAM ARE. IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO, THE SUNPORT AND NORTHEAST HEIGHTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FREEZE, BUT AREAS AROUND BELEN, LOS LUNAS, THE ABQ
VALLEY AND NEAR KAEG ARE EXPECTED TO FREEZE. SIMILARLY, KROW MAY
NOT FREEZE, BUT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST CHAVES COUNTY ARE MORE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING.
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY, AND
THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN THE WARMING TREND FOR
EASTERN NM. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, BUT
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPS WILL TREND WARMER AS
WELL. GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON WILL LIKELY END FOR MANY TONIGHT,
AND WARMER TEMPS FORECAST, NO ADDITIONAL FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
WILL SLOWLY FILL AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO NM AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AS SOON AS SUNDAY MORNING. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON MONDAY, AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD TO AT
LEAST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ALL EYES WILL THEN BE ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO NM AHEAD
OF IT. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, BUT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES OVER NM.
PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 0.6-0.75" ON SUN/MON TO 0.8-1.0 BY
THU. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, THUS SNOW IS EXPECTED ONLY FOR THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
COMMON ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST TODAY BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WHILE EASTERLY WINDS WITH 20-30KT GUSTS WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM WILL WANE TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED TONIGHT, THEN A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS ON TAP SATURDAY MORNING. COOL BUT QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. WETTING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO BE SPOTTY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL
EXISTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST PEAKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 66 40 61 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 28 66 32 62 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 31 61 38 60 / 0 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 25 65 36 62 / 0 0 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 28 61 36 62 / 0 0 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 26 62 33 63 / 0 0 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 31 63 35 65 / 0 0 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 29 58 38 61 / 0 0 5 10
DATIL........................... 27 58 34 61 / 0 0 10 30
RESERVE......................... 32 67 37 66 / 0 0 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 34 68 43 68 / 0 0 20 30
CHAMA........................... 30 60 37 58 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 61 42 60 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 29 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 24 56 26 56 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 11 60 16 61 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 29 62 26 62 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 30 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 31 62 34 62 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 63 32 62 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 63 41 65 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 31 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 64 41 66 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 27 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 33 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 33 66 40 67 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 34 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 33 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 60 36 61 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 29 62 38 63 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 63 26 66 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 26 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 60 33 62 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 60 33 61 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 56 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 62 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 24 67 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 62 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 29 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 67 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 31 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 28 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 62 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 33 61 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 29 59 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NMZ201-217>220-223>225-228-230>241.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page