180
FXUS65 KABQ 191719 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1119 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- FLASH FLOOD RISK INCREASES THRU NORTHWESTERN NM WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
FOCUSED ON FAST STORMS PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THRU WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH MODEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION, WITH AN INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A VORT LOBE THAT WILL
BE LOCATED OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.1" OR
NOTHING AT ALL. HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FOCUSED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD GENERATE UPWARDS OF 0.75" IN CENTRAL NM,
WITH SOUTHERN BERNALILLO/NORTHERN VALENCIA COUNTY FAVORED BASED ON
00Z GUIDANCE.
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO SOME
DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL GENERATE MONDAY'S CROP OF CONVECTION. RAIN
CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WHERE PWATS WILL CREEP HIGHER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NBM POPS REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THIS
PERIOD, THEY MAY TREND HIGHER IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
AN ACTIVE AND WET FALL PATTERN IS FORECAST MID-WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO BREAK OFF FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAM TUESDAY, SETTLING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
FOCUSING A MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AS EVIDENCED BY IVT VALUES
APPROACHING 600 UNITS (KG/MS), WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL AZ
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING INTO EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY AS
THE CLOSED LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS REVOLVED AROUND THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
INLAND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS MOVEMENT INLAND, WITH ONLY A SMALL
MINORITY (~15%) OF ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING A NEAR-STATIONARY CLOSED
LOW OVER SOCAL.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CREATE LARGE SWATHS OF PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER BANDS FOCUSING AROUND THE
VORT MAX THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE TICKED HIGHER FOR THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH 50TH
PERCENTILE AMOUNTS OVER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING NOW SHOWING 1.8" IN GALLUP AND 2.1" IN
FARMINGTON. NOTABLY, THE AVERAGE RECURRENCE INTERVAL (ARI) FOR THESE
50TH PERCENTILE 48 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 4 YEARS IN
GALLUP TO 20 YEARS IN FARMINGTON. GIVEN THAT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES
WILL DRIVE MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION, THE SPREAD OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS (E.G. 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE) IS ON THE LOWER SIDE COMPARED
TO A TYPICAL MONSOONAL SURGE. FORECAST INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGHEST
OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THEN OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY WHERE CLEARING SHOULD PROMOTE MORE
SURFACE HEATING. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY AS IT COULD
BE THE CASE THAT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS NOT NECESSARILY CO-
LOCATED WITH THE HIGHEST FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
BEYOND FRIDAY, MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS HIGH, BUT THE OVERALL
FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER. THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT SOME MODELS WANT TO RE-
DEVELOP ANOTHER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHICH WOULD KEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (~75%) OF MODELS
FEATURE A SLOWER DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN,
ALTHOUGH THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT ADVERTISED BY CURRENT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE CROSSING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THIS
HOUR, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THRU SOUTHWESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
PROB30S AND TEMPOS INCLUDED AT CENTRAL AND WESTERN TAF SITES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS LATE DAY AND EVENING ROUND OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING CONDITIONS FORECAST PAST MIDNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL GENERALLY FOCUS
OVER CENTRAL NM, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WETTING RAINFALL
IS NOT LIKELY IN WITH MOST STORMS, BUT BRIEFLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY FAST MOVING STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. COVERAGE TRENDS LOWER ON TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE.
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
"MOST LIKELY" 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.5-2", WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
COMMONPLACE EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL, VENTILATION WILL TREND
BETTER MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 69 48 70 50 / 10 20 10 5
DULCE........................... 68 40 66 38 / 10 40 30 5
CUBA............................ 67 43 66 46 / 10 30 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 66 43 69 46 / 30 30 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 65 41 67 45 / 40 30 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 67 44 70 47 / 40 30 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 68 43 70 47 / 30 40 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 65 47 68 51 / 60 40 40 10
DATIL........................... 64 44 67 47 / 70 60 20 10
RESERVE......................... 71 46 72 47 / 70 60 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 75 49 77 52 / 80 80 30 40
CHAMA........................... 61 39 60 40 / 10 30 30 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 45 65 47 / 10 40 20 10
PECOS........................... 69 42 67 43 / 20 50 30 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 43 63 44 / 10 20 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 57 36 55 37 / 20 20 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 31 60 31 / 20 20 20 5
TAOS............................ 68 41 66 41 / 20 20 30 5
MORA............................ 66 40 66 41 / 20 30 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 74 45 72 45 / 10 30 20 5
SANTA FE........................ 68 46 66 48 / 20 40 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 46 68 46 / 20 40 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 52 73 56 / 20 50 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 50 73 52 / 20 40 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 47 75 49 / 20 40 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 51 73 53 / 20 40 20 10
BELEN........................... 73 46 75 48 / 30 40 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 75 50 75 51 / 20 50 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 44 75 47 / 20 40 20 5
CORRALES........................ 75 50 75 51 / 20 50 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 45 75 47 / 20 40 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 72 50 71 54 / 20 50 20 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 50 74 52 / 20 50 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 74 53 77 56 / 40 50 30 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 46 67 50 / 20 50 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 69 47 68 51 / 20 50 30 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 44 70 46 / 20 50 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 42 72 43 / 30 50 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 45 68 48 / 30 50 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 45 69 47 / 40 50 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 46 69 48 / 40 60 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 51 73 55 / 50 50 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 67 46 69 48 / 70 50 30 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 44 67 44 / 5 10 20 0
RATON........................... 71 39 72 39 / 10 10 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 72 39 74 39 / 10 20 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 43 67 42 / 20 30 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 50 74 51 / 0 5 10 0
ROY............................. 70 46 72 44 / 10 20 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 50 78 51 / 5 20 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 49 74 50 / 10 30 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 51 79 54 / 0 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 77 49 77 54 / 0 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 78 49 77 54 / 0 5 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 49 76 53 / 0 10 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 49 79 54 / 5 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 74 48 75 50 / 30 30 30 5
ELK............................. 75 48 76 50 / 30 20 30 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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