251
FXUS65 KABQ 211149 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
- AN UNPRECEDENTED HEATWAVE FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH WILL CONTINUE
AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN TO A LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY, PRODUCING A RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT.
ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
- EAST WIND GUSTS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE CROSSWINDS UP TO 45 MPH ON NORTH-TO-
SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE TO ALBUQUERQUE, INCLUDING I-25.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
UNPRECEDENTED MARCH HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A SUMMER-LIKE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AZ EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER NM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 22-30 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SET THEIR
ALL TIME HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. IF
ALBUQUERQUE REACHES 90 F TODAY, IT WILL BREAK IT'S PREVIOUS RECORD
EARLIEST 90 F DAY SET ON MAY 3, 1943 AND 1947. CLAYTON'S HIGH OF
90 DEGREES TODAY SHOULD ALSO ECLIPSE THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD
EARLIEST 90 F DAY SET ON APRIL 20, 1989. THAT SAID, THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SO OUR OFFICIAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT HAS BEEN DROPPED
TO 89 DEGREES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. (ALBUQUERQUE WILL GET ANOTHER
CHANCE TO SET IT'S EARLIEST 90 F TEMPERATURE RECORD ON WEDNESDAY).
THE DISTURBANCE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF NM WILL STRENGTHEN THE
FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE WIND GUSTS
TO PEAK FROM 25-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF NM TODAY, A GUSTY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WHILE A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT OCCURS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY TO FALL A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS,
EXCEPT AS MUCH AS 18 DEGREES OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE. NONETHELESS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO
VARY FROM 11-26 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES WITH NUMEROUS NEW
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
WESTERN AREAS. CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO RETURN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY PEAK
FROM 30-40 MPH. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GUSTY EAST WIND
BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL PROBABLY REACH UP TO 45 MPH BELOW TIJERAS CANYON IN
ALBUQUERQUE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH AROUND
THE SANTA FE AIRPORT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE COOLING TREND IS FORECAST TO SPREAD AREAWIDE AND CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO A WEAK AND DRY DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY, SENDING HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING
AROUND 18-27 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AGAIN. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS WILL AGAIN BE SET TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE'S RECORD EARLIEST 90 F
DAY ON WEDNESDAY; ASSUMING THE SUNPORT DOESN'T REACH 90 F TODAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ON THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES STRENGTHENS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM,
AND ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES THEN
LOOK TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A DISTURBANCE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, AND ANOTHER GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIVING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE
GUSTY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 35 KT FROM CLINES CORNERS AND LAS VEGAS TO
CONCHAS. ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR
AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON IN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY WHERE GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 40
MPH. AFTER WIDESPREAD POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO IMPACT MOST OF THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, COOLER BUT CONTINUED HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND PERSISTENT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES MOSTLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INCREASED THE INCOMING
MOISTURE WITH SUNDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT A LITTLE, WHICH COULD
DECREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION. FOR THIS REASON, WE WILL NOT UPGRADE SUNDAY'S
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES SHOULD MOSTLY VARY FROM 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN, HUMIDITIES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST MONDAY, WHILE WESTERN
READINGS CONTINUE TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE AS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 40 82 41 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 83 34 79 34 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 84 39 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 32 81 33 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 38 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 87 34 83 34 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 85 39 81 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 86 49 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 84 44 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 90 36 86 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 94 42 91 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 77 38 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 53 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 83 45 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 39 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 70 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 27 71 27 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 85 33 80 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 83 44 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 90 42 86 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 83 47 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 43 83 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 53 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 52 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 46 88 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 49 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 91 41 89 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 91 48 88 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 41 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 91 48 88 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 42 88 44 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 86 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 50 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 93 50 91 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 51 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 84 51 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 46 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 34 84 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 46 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 47 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 47 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 53 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 83 54 82 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 84 44 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 87 42 76 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 90 39 81 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 45 81 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 90 52 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 89 46 81 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 97 43 89 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 47 90 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 45 88 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 97 51 90 42 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 48 93 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 44 95 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 96 47 97 48 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 93 53 93 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 92 49 92 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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