590
FXUS65 KABQ 181716 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1016 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 910 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING, THOUGH TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE COLD. A
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING WESTERLY WINDS
TO PICK UP. DOWNSLOPING WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE ON
THE ORDER OF 25 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY'S READINGS. THE BREEZIEST
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, TO INCLUDE
KCQC, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS
EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BACK INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AS A
1035 MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDES DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OK. THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN IT
WAS YESTERDAY, AND AS A RESULT, ONLY A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
WIND IS EXPECTED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY MORNING.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NM BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
30S, WHICH MEANS HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MEANWHILE, LITTLE CHANGE FOR WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
AFTER SUBSIDING MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE EAST WIND SHOULD RETURN IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS WILL BE
COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM BEHIND
THE FRONT.
SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY
AND DOWNSLOPING WILL AGAIN YO-YO TEMPERATURES BACK UPWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR
ACROSS EASTERN NM. AGAIN, LITTLE CHANGE FOR WESTERN NM. MODELS
HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST NM IN THE MORNING, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHER MODELS SUGGEST JUST ONE MAIN
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS MAKES THE TEMP FORECAST A LITTLE TRICKY, BUT EXPECT A
DOWNWARD TEMP TREND BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN IT ARRIVES. MODELS DO
AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY
COOLING ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM THE EARLY
HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THE
DETAILS ARE STILL BLURRY. A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MAY SLIDE DOWN
FROM THE PACNW ACROSS NM ON FRIDAY INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZES,
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE TOO WEAK, AND INSTEAD
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT COULD PUSH INTO EASTERN NM FRIDAY. THERE'S
ALSO THE QUESTION OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND HOW FAST IT WILL TREK
EASTWARD, HOW STRONG IT WILL BE, AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PHASE
WITH ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOW POPS (<20%)
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THE
DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 910 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CREATE
A WIND SHIFT AT KTCC OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY KROW EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CREATE AN EAST CANYON WIND AT KABQ EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, BUT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW
20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF POCKETS OF BETTER
VENT RATES, INCLUDING TODAY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS, AND
MONDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. OTHERWISE, POOR
VENT RATES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE TEMPERATURE
SWINGS DUE TO PERIODIC BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS REMAIN ON TAP FOR
EASTERN NM, WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NM. A PATTERN
CHANGE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA, BUT THE DETAILS ARE FUZZY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 22 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 49 18 49 15 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 21 47 18 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 17 53 12 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 24 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 56 19 54 14 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 24 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 31 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 54 26 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 64 23 61 21 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 26 65 24 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 18 43 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 28 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 21 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 21 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 18 33 14 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 9 37 3 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 49 19 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 56 17 39 16 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 53 22 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 26 44 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 24 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 31 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 30 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 27 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 29 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 54 23 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 28 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 23 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 55 28 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 22 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 51 30 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 29 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 29 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 27 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 28 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 26 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 17 44 12 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 21 36 18 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 25 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 24 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 30 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 30 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 53 14 33 14 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 56 15 36 11 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 59 16 37 9 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 18 37 14 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 18 34 20 / 0 5 5 0
ROY............................. 56 19 34 15 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 22 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 24 39 17 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 22 40 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 23 39 18 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 20 41 13 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 23 42 15 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 24 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 28 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 27 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
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