139
FXUS65 KABQ 071830
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1230 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY, CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/UT BORDER WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING 598-
599DM. HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS COMMONLY REACHING THE 100F MARK ACROSS ALL LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
INCLUDING FARMINGTON, ESPANOLA, ALBUQUERQUE, GRANTS, AND THE EAST
MTN COMMUNITIES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOR THESE SAME ZONES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (GRANTS, ACOMA AND LAGUNA PUEBLOS).
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
STORMS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH, PUSHING STORMS SOUTHEASTWARD
OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S, WESTWARD OFF THE SACRAMENTO'S AND GILA
NF, WITH VERY SLOW MOVING ISOLATED STORMS IF ANY AS ONE GETS CLOSER
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST BULK
SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR A PULSE SHORT-LIVED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MOVING
OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, STORMS LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
LOCAL WETTING FOOTPRINTS, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONGEAL OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS OF NM
THIS EVENING BEFORE PETERING OUT LATE THIS EVENING THE AREAS
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI, FT. SUMNER, ROSWELL, AND CLOVIS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TRENDS LOWER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH EXPANDS AND
BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN NM ALONGSIDE A BIT MORE DRIER AIR
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS STILL
FORECAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT WITH LESS SPREAD OVER
SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SUBTLE AND SLOW CHANGES TO THE MONSOON HIGH BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD
SUNDAY AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER TO 595-596DM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN RETREATING FROM NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH LOWER
COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS TRACKING SLOWLY CLOCKWISE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE HIGH EACH
DAY. EAST CANYON WINDS PUSHING INTO SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE EACH
EVENING ALSO LOOKS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND SEES THE MONSOON HIGH BEGIN TO EXPAND IN AREA
WHILE ALSO LOWERING IN HEIGHT AND MEANDERING EASTWARD TOWARD TX.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TAP OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN PWS TO THE 1.00"
TO 1.20" BY THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TRENDS UPWARDS WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE RAIN
EFFICIENT PRODUCERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DOES OCCUR, NOTABLY OVER RECENT BURN
SCARS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL TRACK CLOCKWISE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH SITUATED ALONG THE UT/AZ BORDER WITH STORMS MOVING S/SE OFF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S, AND SW/W OFF THE SACRAMENTO'S AND
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. LOCALIZED AND BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE CELLS WITH THE LONGEST LASTING MOVING
OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S. THESE CELLS WILL CONGEAL OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS OF NM LASTING WELL INTO THE EVENING. PROB30S
FOR TS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KSAF AND KROW TO ADDRESS THIS. GUSTY
E/SE CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS CALMING BY THE 06Z TO 08Z HOUR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
MONSOON HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT ALONGSIDE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS. MOISTURE TICKS UP WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF NM. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IMPROVE ALONGSIDE AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 101 66 100 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 97 55 97 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 60 95 61 95 / 0 5 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 57 95 59 94 / 0 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 89 57 89 / 10 30 10 40
GRANTS.......................... 57 95 59 95 / 10 10 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 58 90 59 90 / 20 20 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 63 91 64 92 / 40 5 0 20
DATIL........................... 58 87 58 87 / 20 20 5 50
RESERVE......................... 57 94 58 94 / 10 30 10 40
GLENWOOD........................ 61 98 62 99 / 10 40 10 30
CHAMA........................... 53 90 55 90 / 5 5 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 91 63 91 / 0 20 5 30
PECOS........................... 57 90 59 92 / 5 20 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 90 59 91 / 0 5 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 49 81 50 82 / 0 5 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 84 45 86 / 0 10 5 40
TAOS............................ 55 94 57 95 / 0 5 5 10
MORA............................ 53 88 55 91 / 0 20 5 50
ESPANOLA........................ 61 100 63 100 / 0 10 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 62 92 64 93 / 0 10 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 95 61 96 / 0 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 99 70 100 / 5 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 100 68 100 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 102 68 103 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 100 70 101 / 5 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 65 100 66 102 / 10 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 101 68 102 / 5 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 100 66 102 / 5 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 68 102 70 103 / 5 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 100 67 101 / 5 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 66 97 67 98 / 5 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 100 69 102 / 5 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 71 102 72 102 / 20 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 94 63 93 / 10 5 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 62 95 64 94 / 10 10 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 95 59 95 / 10 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 95 57 97 / 20 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 91 62 92 / 30 5 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 94 61 95 / 40 0 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 91 60 92 / 50 0 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 93 64 94 / 30 10 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 20 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 57 90 60 91 / 5 10 5 30
RATON........................... 55 93 56 95 / 5 10 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 54 95 56 98 / 10 20 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 90 58 93 / 10 20 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 65 97 69 98 / 10 0 0 5
ROY............................. 59 93 63 95 / 20 5 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 63 100 69 102 / 50 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 96 66 98 / 60 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 100 70 102 / 60 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 98 68 99 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 98 69 99 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 98 68 99 / 70 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 99 72 101 / 30 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 95 64 97 / 30 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 92 60 94 / 10 5 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-207-217-219-
221.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201-217-219-
221.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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