207
FXUS65 KABQ 281110 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
410 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 407 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON SUNDAY.
- PERIODIC ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING, WHICH HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR UNSEASONABLE WARMTH OF LATE, CAN BE SEEN ON
GOES WATER-VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NOT A GREAT
DEAL OF CHANGE IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY TO
TODAY, WHICH OVERALL WILL YIELD A VERY NICE LATE WINTER DAY. DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING (00Z/ABQ SOUNDING WAS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO
~615MB) WILL BRING DOWN NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO THE SURFACE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER, WHERE A
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHTER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. SEVERAL DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL
AGAIN; SEE CLIMATE SECTION, BELOW.
THE CURRENT LATE WINTER WARMTH PEAKS ON SUNDAY (01 MARCH). DESPITE
THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENING, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OFF OF
NORTHERN CA, HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH AND SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE, FURTHER ENHANCING
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. OPERATIONAL NBM GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY WITH THE SUN FORECAST HIGH FOR THE ABQ SUNPORT,
NOW CHECKING IN AT 79F. NBM 5.0 PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80F IS AT
30%. THIS WOULD SMASH THE DAILY RECORD OF 74F, AT ANY RATE.
ROSWELL HEATS UP INTO THE UPPER 80S, WITH NBM 5.0 CHANCE OF
HITTING 90F ONLY 13%. THE SEASONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES YIELD
FORECAST RH VALUES <15%, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40, WITH AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH WINDS BEING A
LIMITING FACTOR.
A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP INTO UNION COUNTY DURING
THE DAY AND MAKE ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH- AND WESTWARD UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET. ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT MORE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ON
THE TIMING OF A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT'S WESTWARD PUSH LATE SUNDAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, GUIDANCE
(PARTICULARLY THE NAM), HAS THE BOUNDARY PARKED OVER UNION COUNTY
MUCH OF THE DAY. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO START PUSHING FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXDOWN OF WESTERLY
WINDS, PUSHING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY DAWN
MONDAY. SOME ADDED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MODELED TO RIDE UP ALONG
THE FRONT FROM RICHER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER CENTRAL TX, WITH THE
RRFS AND NAM SUGGESTING SOME AREAS OF LOW STRATUS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM, WITH SOME FOG OR EVEN DRIZZLE NOT BEING
RULED OUT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. THIS WILL KNOCK 5 TO 10 DEGREES
OFF OF SUNDAY'S HIGHS FOR SE NM, BUT THE RGV STILL HEATS UP, WITH
THE OPERATIONAL NBM FORECAST FOR ABQ STILL 80F, AND A 45% CHANCE
OF EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THAT NUMBER, PER NBM 5.0. THIS WOULD
EASILY BE ANOTHER RECORD. THE FRONT WASHES OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN CA TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH A MOSTLY OPEN
WAVE FOR THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, WITH THE H5 VORT MAX TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN CO. THIS MEANS CONTINUED PALTRY PRECIP CHANCES FOR NM,
WITH ONLY LIGHT QPF IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEWPOINT RISES BEHIND
ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE IMPACTFUL, AS WINDS PICK UP INTO THE BREEZY
TO WINDY CATEGORY AND DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WIDESPREAD
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
WEDNESDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL, AS A SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER NM. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE AT
LEAST A MEDIUM CHANCE TO RETURN ON THURSDAY, AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST REGION, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING. PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK SCANTY, APART FROM LOW
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE TX BORDER,
WHERE A DRYLINE FEATURE MAY SET UP.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REALLY DECREASES BEYOND THURSDAY.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON
TROUGHING EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF FROM MEAN FLOW INTO A CLOSED LOW
SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S. OR NORTHERN MEXICO...BUT
LOCATION AND EVENTUAL EJECTION TIMING VARY WIDELY. THIS SETUP
COULD ACT TO PULL A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT AND/OR LOW-LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO NM. FOR NOW, WE HAVE RETAINED THE 20-40% POPS FROM
THE NBM FOR LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME-TO-TIME. NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS AT KSAF ONCE
AGAIN MAY REACH 12-14 KNOTS BRIEFING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO RE-OCCUR DURING THE WEEK
AHEAD, AS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION, THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SEVERAL BACK-DOOR
FRONTS ACT TO OCCASIONALLY REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR AREAS ALONG THE
TEXAS BORDER, KEEPING THE THREAT MORE LIMITED THERE. DRY AND
SEASONALLY HOT CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY YIELD FORECAST RH VALUES <15%,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-40, WITH AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH 20-FT. WINDS BEING THE LIMITING
FACTOR. TUESDAY APPEARS SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, IN TERMS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER PATTERN, BUT WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALLOWING FOR
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. LIGHTER WINDS MITIGATE
THE THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, WITH AREAS
OF AT LEAST NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE FORECAST IS
RATHER UNCERTAIN BEYOND THURSDAY, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS WOULD STAY
HIGHER IN THIS SCENARIO, BUT MOISTURE/PRECIP PLACEMENT MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ANY FIRE SPREAD THREAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
SAT FCST (RECORD) / SUN FCST (RECORD)/ MON FCST (RECORD) ABQ
SUNPORT: 74F (75F) / 79F (74F) / 80F (76F) ROSWELL: 87F (87F) /
89F (86F) / 82F (86F)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 65 27 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 66 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 31 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 34 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 71 39 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 72 44 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 70 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 79 36 79 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 83 40 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 30 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 72 39 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 55 35 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 27 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 67 31 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 72 36 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 35 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 68 43 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 48 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 42 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 75 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 76 43 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 38 82 40 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 42 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 39 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 70 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 43 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 79 44 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 68 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 39 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 43 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 72 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 47 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 47 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 35 68 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 72 32 73 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 75 32 75 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 73 39 67 32 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 73 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 38 80 36 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 39 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 38 80 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 43 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 41 85 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 38 83 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 87 45 89 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 84 46 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 87 44 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...53-SCHROEDER
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