070
FXUS65 KABQ 021114 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- MUCH LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING BEGINNING TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH OVER AZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM 599DAM AT
500MB DOWN TO 595DAM THROUGH MONDAY AND GET STRETCHED FROM EAST TO
EAST OVER NM, ALLOWING DRIER WESTERLIES TO PENETRATE INTO WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS TREND WILL BRING A DOWNTREND IN COVERAGE
OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION AND THE DRIER AIR WILL
ALLOW FOR LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, EXPANDING A MODERATE
TO MAJOR EAST RISK EAST ACROSS THE AREA DESPITE LOWER PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL PLATEAUS TODAY, BUT A MORE EXPANSIVE ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MONDAY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND
EASTERN PLAINS. WITH THE UNUSUAL HEAT AND LOWER PWATS FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY, STORMS WILL FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER
RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND HAVE A HARDER TIME SURVIVING MOVING OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE ONE EXCEPT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE A HIGHER PWAT ATMOSPHERE WILL
LINGER AND MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TUESDAY AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ORIENTED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING ADDED FORCING AND MOISTURE TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
THAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NM, A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AN
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MIDDLE RGV AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.
THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH TO OVER NV/UT AND
STRENGTHEN FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND, TAKING THE EDGE OFF OF THE
HEAT ACROSS NM BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INFUSION. DAILY
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST, BUT WITH LOWER COVERAGE AND
LOWER PWATS THAN ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY STEPPING DOWN FROM MID THROUGH
LATE WEEK. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL TREND DOWN TODAY AND
MONDAY THEN SLOWLY TREND BACK UP FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT
STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR EARLY AUGUST. NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE DRIEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH POOR
TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCES FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 66 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 97 56 98 56 / 0 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 94 62 96 63 / 0 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 97 60 99 64 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 91 60 92 60 / 5 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 95 63 97 64 / 10 5 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 93 63 93 63 / 10 10 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 90 66 93 67 / 10 5 20 10
DATIL........................... 87 60 90 62 / 30 10 20 20
RESERVE......................... 95 60 97 60 / 30 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 98 65 100 64 / 50 20 40 20
CHAMA........................... 90 57 92 57 / 10 5 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 90 65 93 66 / 10 10 20 0
PECOS........................... 90 59 99 62 / 10 10 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 91 60 93 60 / 0 0 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 82 49 88 49 / 0 0 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 47 89 47 / 5 0 30 5
TAOS............................ 93 59 97 59 / 5 0 10 0
MORA............................ 89 57 96 59 / 10 5 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 98 66 100 65 / 5 10 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 92 65 96 66 / 0 10 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 63 99 64 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 71 100 72 / 5 5 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 70 102 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 69 104 71 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 71 103 73 / 0 5 0 10
BELEN........................... 99 68 105 70 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 99 70 104 71 / 0 5 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 68 105 69 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 100 71 104 72 / 0 5 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 69 104 70 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 95 68 100 70 / 5 5 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 71 103 71 / 0 5 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 100 71 104 73 / 5 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 64 95 65 / 10 5 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 94 65 98 67 / 10 5 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 94 61 99 63 / 10 5 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 59 100 61 / 10 5 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 62 95 64 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 63 97 64 / 10 5 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 62 94 64 / 10 5 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 91 68 96 71 / 0 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 84 61 89 64 / 20 0 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 88 59 94 59 / 0 0 40 20
RATON........................... 92 57 97 59 / 5 5 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 57 100 59 / 5 5 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 57 96 59 / 10 10 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 94 67 102 67 / 0 0 5 30
ROY............................. 91 62 98 63 / 0 5 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 99 69 106 71 / 0 5 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 66 102 68 / 5 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 69 107 73 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 96 68 102 70 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 70 103 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 69 102 72 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 99 72 105 73 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 95 66 99 68 / 10 0 20 10
ELK............................. 91 63 95 65 / 20 0 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-205.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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