670
FXUS65 KABQ 192340 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
- SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MOST DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD-TO-NEAR-RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
A "MOIST" BACKDOOR "COLD" FRONT THAT ENTERED EASTERN NM THIS MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS "UPTICK" WILL BE BRIEF AS YET ANOTHER DRY, HOT,
AND STABLE AIRMASS RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AND THRU MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THE 18Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.03" BUT A PESKY
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS PRESENT NEAR 500MB WITH HEIGHTS AT 598DM.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST NM
BUT REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. 12Z
CAMS AND PROBABILISTIC QPF STILL SHOWS THE NEXT 48-HRS AS THE
MORE FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA, EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
THE FOCUS FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST NM WHERE
THE RICHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PRESENT BENEATH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. ELSEWHERE, ANY STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
RAINFALL WILL ACT LIKE A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING EFFECT FOR THE HIGHER
QPF POTENTIAL THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
FRIDAY THRU MONDAY HAS TRENDED EVEN DRIER WITH THE MAIN STORM FOCUS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WHILE A 598DM H5 HIGH CENTERS OVER
EASTERN NM. DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL SLIDE NORTHWEST BENEATH THE
UPPER HIGH WHICH HELPS TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS EVEN MORESO. PWATS
ARE ALSO SHOWN FALLING BELOW 0.75" IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RISE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE
CHALLENGING FOR FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS ON ANY FIRES OVER THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO PLACE THE 2026 MONSOON SEASON IN EVEN MORE
SOLID TERRITORY AS ONE OF THE DRIEST AND HOTTEST EVER RECORDED FOR
MANY AREAS TO DATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ERRATICALLY
SOUTHWARD INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS >40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS,
ALONG WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR
FROM DIRECT HITS. THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH ABOUT 9PM. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL ROUGHLY 3AM WITHIN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AGAIN LOOK SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PEAK TODAY THRU FRIDAY THEN CHANCES DECREASE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
THRU THE WEEKEND. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN DRY FUELS. BURN SCAR FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN AREAS WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HOT THRU ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE IN SOME
AREAS. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW IN MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS WELL. MIN HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO NEAR 15% OVER LOCALIZED AREAS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THRU THE WEEKEND BEFORE LOWERING FURTHER NEXT
WEEK OVER A LARGER AREA. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 99 65 97 / 5 10 30 0
DULCE........................... 51 94 50 93 / 10 30 20 50
CUBA............................ 59 92 58 90 / 20 30 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 58 92 58 91 / 30 10 10 50
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 56 86 / 30 40 30 60
GRANTS.......................... 59 93 59 91 / 30 20 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 60 88 59 88 / 30 40 30 60
MAGDALENA....................... 64 90 64 89 / 30 20 30 30
DATIL........................... 59 86 59 85 / 20 50 30 50
RESERVE......................... 58 94 57 93 / 20 50 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 62 97 62 98 / 20 50 20 20
CHAMA........................... 52 86 52 86 / 30 70 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 89 63 90 / 40 20 30 20
PECOS........................... 58 88 57 88 / 50 50 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 87 57 87 / 60 30 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 46 80 47 83 / 60 60 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 82 41 82 / 60 70 30 70
TAOS............................ 55 90 55 91 / 60 30 30 40
MORA............................ 54 85 54 85 / 60 60 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 62 96 62 97 / 40 20 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 63 90 63 90 / 40 30 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 93 60 93 / 40 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 95 68 96 / 40 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 96 66 97 / 40 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 99 65 99 / 30 10 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 98 68 98 / 30 10 30 5
BELEN........................... 66 99 65 98 / 30 10 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 98 67 99 / 30 10 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 98 63 98 / 30 20 30 5
CORRALES........................ 68 99 68 99 / 30 10 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 98 65 98 / 30 10 30 5
PLACITAS........................ 66 93 66 94 / 40 20 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 97 67 98 / 30 10 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 69 100 / 20 10 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 89 61 90 / 50 40 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 63 92 62 93 / 50 40 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 92 58 93 / 50 50 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 93 55 93 / 40 40 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 88 59 88 / 40 50 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 91 58 92 / 30 40 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 90 59 90 / 30 40 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 65 93 / 30 40 30 20
RUIDOSO......................... 61 85 60 85 / 20 40 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 56 85 57 87 / 70 30 20 10
RATON........................... 55 89 56 91 / 70 40 30 10
SPRINGER........................ 56 90 55 93 / 60 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 88 56 89 / 50 50 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 91 64 96 / 30 5 10 5
ROY............................. 60 89 60 91 / 40 20 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 66 96 65 99 / 30 10 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 92 63 94 / 40 10 30 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 96 64 99 / 20 5 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 98 67 99 / 30 10 30 5
PORTALES........................ 67 98 67 99 / 30 10 30 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 97 66 99 / 30 10 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 101 70 102 / 10 5 10 0
PICACHO......................... 66 95 65 95 / 10 10 10 5
ELK............................. 62 93 61 93 / 10 20 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...23
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