639
FXUS65 KABQ 032332 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A DIRTY RIDGE IS OVERHEAD AND IS RESULTING IN WARMER CONDITIONS
TODAY, DESPITE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A ROUND OF DAYTIME
HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN NM, THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TODAY, SO WETTING (>0.10")
RAIN AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL, WITH
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS THE MORE COMMON IMPACT FROM THIS ROUND. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT ON MONDAY AND GIVE WAY TO
STRONGER WESTERLIES, BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON. WARMING WILL CONTINUE MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL PLAY A ROLE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
LOW, WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE JET STREAM WILL ORIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC LOW ON TUESDAY, WITH 300MB WIND
SPEEDS FORECAST TO REACH UP TO 125KTS. A WINDY DAY WILL RESULT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST NM THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED FORCING, BUT LOWER
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ARE STILL LOOKING
PRIMED TO PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8,500FT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES TO
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PULL UP STATIONARY ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE FORECAST
BEYOND WEDNESDAY IS OF LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME DUE
TO MODEL SPREAD AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE HANDLING OF
A BAJA LOW AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH. HOWEVER, A LEAN TOWARD
DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM AND WETTER/COOLER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS
TIME. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTING EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING, EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS ERRATIC GUSTS UP
TO 25KT. LOW CHANCES (10-30%) EXIST OF SHOWERS IMPACTING KAEG AND
KABQ, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES EXIST AT KGUP. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER,
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 35KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 40KT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND UP AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT AND GIVES WAY TO STRONGER
WESTERLIES, BRINGING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING
PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS EASTERN NM AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS TO
ERCS, THERE IS LOW TO NO CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, WHICH
WILL ALSO BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM NEAR THE CO
BORDER ON WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE CREEPING
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
BUT THE FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE GIVEN MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE HANDLING OF A PACIFIC LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH. THAT SAID, PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND WEDNESDAY ARE LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 74 46 66 / 30 0 5 30
DULCE........................... 38 68 38 63 / 40 10 5 40
CUBA............................ 41 68 42 61 / 40 5 10 50
GALLUP.......................... 39 70 40 62 / 30 0 10 50
EL MORRO........................ 40 67 40 59 / 20 5 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 40 71 42 64 / 30 5 10 50
QUEMADO......................... 43 71 43 62 / 30 5 30 40
MAGDALENA....................... 48 71 48 65 / 30 5 20 40
DATIL........................... 43 68 43 61 / 30 5 20 40
RESERVE......................... 40 73 40 64 / 10 5 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 41 77 40 68 / 20 5 30 50
CHAMA........................... 35 62 34 58 / 50 10 5 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 69 47 62 / 30 5 5 60
PECOS........................... 42 70 42 63 / 20 0 5 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 65 40 61 / 20 10 0 40
RED RIVER....................... 35 55 34 52 / 30 10 0 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 62 32 57 / 20 5 0 40
TAOS............................ 39 69 39 64 / 20 5 0 30
MORA............................ 41 68 41 62 / 10 5 0 40
ESPANOLA........................ 46 76 47 68 / 20 5 5 40
SANTA FE........................ 46 70 45 63 / 20 5 10 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 73 44 66 / 20 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 76 53 67 / 30 5 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 78 52 69 / 20 5 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 80 51 71 / 20 5 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 78 52 69 / 30 5 10 50
BELEN........................... 48 80 50 71 / 30 5 10 40
BERNALILLO...................... 50 79 52 69 / 30 0 10 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 46 80 48 70 / 20 5 10 40
CORRALES........................ 49 79 51 70 / 30 0 10 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 80 48 70 / 20 5 10 40
PLACITAS........................ 52 75 52 66 / 30 0 10 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 78 52 68 / 30 0 10 50
SOCORRO......................... 52 80 54 74 / 40 5 20 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 71 48 62 / 30 5 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 48 73 49 64 / 20 5 10 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 74 46 65 / 20 5 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 75 40 67 / 20 5 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 71 44 63 / 20 0 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 73 46 65 / 30 5 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 73 46 66 / 40 5 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 74 53 68 / 20 5 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 49 69 49 61 / 10 5 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 41 71 39 57 / 10 10 5 70
RATON........................... 40 75 42 64 / 10 0 0 50
SPRINGER........................ 42 76 46 68 / 5 0 0 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 71 44 65 / 10 0 0 30
CLAYTON......................... 49 80 44 62 / 5 0 5 30
ROY............................. 46 76 47 67 / 5 0 0 30
CONCHAS......................... 53 85 53 76 / 5 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 81 51 73 / 10 0 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 87 54 77 / 5 0 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 51 85 55 77 / 5 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 53 86 57 79 / 5 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 86 55 77 / 10 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 52 90 57 80 / 10 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 50 80 52 73 / 10 0 10 20
ELK............................. 47 76 50 69 / 10 0 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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