841
FXUS65 KABQ 280858
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
- PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE MORENO VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ON PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FAVOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A 25% CHANCE OF RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE SEVEN CABINS BURN SCAR IN THE CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN
STALLED THERE TODAY, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, AND REACH
UT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW INDUCED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. A PATCHIER EPISODE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM
TONIGHT.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BRISK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (65%) WILL BE OVER THE FIRE-RAVAGED CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLES BOTH
INDICATE A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF RAIN ACCUMULATION ON
THE CAPITAN'S SEVEN CABINS WILDFIRE AND BURN SCAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE A MIXED BLESSING IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT, BECAUSE THE
BURN SCAR AND STEEP TERRAIN WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF
AND SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. ACCORDING TO HIGH
RES MODELS THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT/TIMING ON THE FIRE/SCAR
WILL BE AROUND 0.25" FROM 1-5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO EVENING, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS, WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REACH AROUND 25-30 KT WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG. MODELS THEN KEEP A
15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UT FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SWEEP A DRY SLOT THROUGH NM PRODUCING AN ACTIVE
DRYLINE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
LATEST MODELS FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST
PLAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT NEAR THE EASTERN NM
BORDER, RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO THURSDAY'S STORMS. HOWEVER, A BROADER AREA OF 25-30 KT
BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ON FRIDAY, WIND
SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS PROBABLY
PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH AROUND GALLUP AND GRAN QUIVIRA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND A FEW TO 12 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, THEN READINGS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
UT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERVADE THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY
GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER SOME CONTINUED
COOLING CENTRAL AND WEST ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SUNDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ALONG NM'S WESTERN BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A MOIST RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LOW LEVELS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A 15-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS,
WHICH HAVE YET TO BE INGESTED BY THE NBM, ALL INDICATE THE MOIST
RETURN FLOW WILL ENABLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING; POTENTIALLY
AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WILL FEATURE DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS, AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POTENTIALLY FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SWEEPS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
US. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOUR CORNERS MAY MISS OUT ON THIS MOISTURE,
BUT THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING A HALF
INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS
FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS TO NM'S EASTER BORDER. IN
ADDITION, HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
UNTIL AROUND 10Z. EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MOVEMENT WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 15-30 KT. THURSDAY NIGHT, SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALL THE WAY TO NM'S EASTERN BORDER,
WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE CO BORDER AS FAR WEST AS
NAVAJO LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT DAILY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UPWARD THERE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND
GUSTS WILL MOSTLY VARY AROUND 30-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES PLUMMET FROM 7-12 PERCENT, AND ERCS VARY
FROM 65-75TH PERCENTILES. IF THE WIND SPEED FORECAST STRENGTHENS
IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, THESE LOCATIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN, EXCEPT FOR ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WITH
TIMING DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
IN ADDITION, SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY FROM ALBUQUERQUE NORTHWARD TO THE CO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 51 83 45 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 82 43 79 36 / 5 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 78 47 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 81 40 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 44 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 44 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 78 45 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 54 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 76 48 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 81 41 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 45 85 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 74 41 72 35 / 5 10 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 76 55 76 50 / 5 10 5 5
PECOS........................... 79 48 78 44 / 20 30 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 49 74 43 / 5 20 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 69 38 66 36 / 10 20 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 36 69 28 / 20 20 30 20
TAOS............................ 78 48 76 43 / 0 20 20 10
MORA............................ 75 47 74 43 / 30 30 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 84 52 84 44 / 5 20 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 79 54 78 47 / 10 20 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 52 82 45 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 84 60 84 55 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 59 85 54 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 53 88 46 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 58 86 53 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 55 88 50 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 57 86 52 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 52 87 46 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 87 56 87 52 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 86 53 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 83 58 82 53 / 10 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 58 85 54 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 89 60 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 55 79 50 / 10 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 81 55 81 50 / 10 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 53 80 48 / 10 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 47 82 44 / 10 5 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 51 77 47 / 20 20 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 81 51 81 48 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 52 79 48 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 58 82 56 / 20 5 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 75 51 76 48 / 40 20 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 73 47 73 43 / 20 20 20 20
RATON........................... 77 48 78 43 / 30 30 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 79 50 79 45 / 30 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 49 76 45 / 30 30 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 78 53 81 51 / 10 20 20 20
ROY............................. 76 52 77 48 / 20 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 84 57 84 53 / 10 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 56 82 53 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 58 85 55 / 5 20 40 20
CLOVIS.......................... 85 58 84 55 / 10 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 87 59 86 56 / 10 20 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 57 84 54 / 10 20 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 88 61 89 57 / 20 30 10 5
PICACHO......................... 82 56 85 54 / 30 30 5 5
ELK............................. 81 53 82 52 / 30 30 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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