745
FXUS65 KABQ 062341
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, MONDAY, AND
TUESDAY MAY RESULT IN STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, DRY
LIGHTNING, AND RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
- DRY AND BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY COULD PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.7
INCHES) COMBINED WITH DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER FAR WESTERN NM AND THE UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS HAS RESULTED
IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, AND EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO HOT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
MOVES OVER THE STATE SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR OF PWATS BETWEEN 0.3 TO
0.6 INCHES IN PLACE. THIS ALONG WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM WITH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES EAST TO OVER TEXAS ON MONDAY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW. TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
SUNDAY WILL HEAT UP A DEGREE TO TWO AREAWIDE RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. SOUTHWEST FLOW
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. INTENSE DAYTIME
HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -4 DEG
C WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VIRGA
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER AND MIDDLE RGV COME THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FIRE STARTS. DRY AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MOVES ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
COMBINED WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE,
ALONG WITH A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, DUE TO LINGERING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT DRIER LOW LEVELS, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE DUE TO BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500 TO 2500 J/KG. FINALLY, ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM, MUCH DRIER 500 TO
700 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 30 TO 40 KTS AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A
HIGH RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO MONDAY, EXCEPT A TOUCH COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AND EXPECTED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE STATE
BEING SOUTH OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
GREAT PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE PRECEDING DAYS OF HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MONSOON HIGH
BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND DESERT SW FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGHER GULF MOISTURE BEHIND A
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NM WILL FOCUS OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING, WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN CONCERN. ANY STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE INTO TX BY
04Z AT THE LATEST.
BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN NM, WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED GUSTY
SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO
COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. HOT AND DRY AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD RESULT
IN FIRE STARTS. STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL
HELP TO INCREASE WINDS AREAWIDE. THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH
SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND VERY DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. DRY AND HOT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND PRECEDING DAYS OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A
HIGHER RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN
TO FIRST EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 46 85 45 88 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 54 86 53 87 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 50 87 46 89 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 52 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 55 88 52 89 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 52 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 61 86 59 86 / 5 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 56 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 47 89 48 91 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 50 94 51 96 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 44 80 44 81 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 84 59 85 / 5 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 50 85 54 86 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 83 53 83 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 73 45 74 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 78 46 79 / 10 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 48 85 51 86 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 83 52 84 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 92 56 93 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 57 85 59 86 / 5 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 88 56 89 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 93 67 93 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 94 63 94 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 97 62 97 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 94 63 94 / 5 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 61 95 60 95 / 5 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 63 95 64 95 / 5 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 95 59 95 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 63 95 64 95 / 5 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 95 61 95 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 91 65 90 / 5 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 94 63 94 / 5 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 66 97 66 97 / 5 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 87 60 87 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 88 59 88 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 89 57 90 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 90 53 90 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 86 57 86 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 88 55 89 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 87 57 89 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 90 64 93 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 88 53 89 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 49 91 52 91 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 93 52 94 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 88 53 88 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 94 62 97 / 5 5 0 0
ROY............................. 52 92 56 93 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 100 60 101 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 97 60 97 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 100 63 101 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 98 64 100 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 99 64 101 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 100 61 100 / 30 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 102 64 102 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 94 62 95 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 92 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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