917
FXUS65 KABQ 040700
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
100 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY RISK OF
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAINLY OVER CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN AREAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEK ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL OCCUR EACH
DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH IS PULLING A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
NORTH OVER THE REGION, WITH NO REAL OBVIOUS CONNECTION TO
HURRICANE MARIE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. PWATS ARE ALREADY ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OVER THE AREA AND ARE FORECAST TO CHALLENGE RECORD
VALUES TODAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THE LATEST CAMS FAVOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM, THERE IS A CONTINUED
MODERATE HEAT RISK AS THAT AREA REMAINS MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
UPPER HIGH AS IT BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS A FURTHER WEST INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN
RUIDOSO SATURDAY, BUT WITH FORECAST LIGHTER STEERING FLOW THE
RELATIVE THREAT IS HIGHER THAN TODAY'S. LIGHTER FORECAST
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED PENDING SOIL CONDITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAY'S ROUNDS OF RAINFALL. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LESS SPREAD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AND ARE
FORECASTING A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN US, WITH NM AND THE DESERT SW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NM FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION, BUT A GRADUAL DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST
FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
SHIFTS WEST INTO AZ. THIS ALL ADDS UP TO CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM, WITH A
MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DAILY ROUNDS FOR
STORMS FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL BECOME LESS RAINFALL
PRODUCTIVE AS THE STUBBORN UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE US
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
BUT STRONG/ERRATIC GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING
STORMS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM, MORE
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING WEST INTO
THE US SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST
FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES OVER
THE REGION, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS
EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 81 59 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 80 48 85 49 / 20 30 10 0
CUBA............................ 77 56 81 57 / 40 30 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 76 52 81 55 / 30 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 72 51 78 54 / 40 20 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 76 54 82 57 / 60 30 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 54 79 57 / 60 30 30 5
MAGDALENA....................... 78 59 82 62 / 60 30 40 20
DATIL........................... 73 54 78 57 / 70 30 40 10
RESERVE......................... 77 55 86 57 / 40 20 40 0
GLENWOOD........................ 81 58 92 61 / 30 20 30 5
CHAMA........................... 75 50 79 51 / 20 30 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 59 83 62 / 30 30 40 10
PECOS........................... 81 57 85 58 / 30 30 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 53 82 56 / 10 30 30 5
RED RIVER....................... 77 45 76 43 / 20 30 50 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 42 78 41 / 30 40 60 5
TAOS............................ 83 54 85 54 / 10 30 30 5
MORA............................ 81 53 82 54 / 40 30 60 20
ESPANOLA........................ 86 60 90 61 / 20 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 82 58 85 63 / 20 30 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 84 60 88 61 / 20 40 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 64 89 68 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 65 90 67 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 65 92 66 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 87 66 90 68 / 20 20 10 20
BELEN........................... 88 63 91 64 / 20 10 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 88 65 91 67 / 20 20 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 88 63 91 63 / 10 20 10 20
CORRALES........................ 87 65 91 67 / 20 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 88 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 85 63 88 66 / 10 20 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 65 90 67 / 20 20 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 89 67 94 69 / 20 20 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 59 82 61 / 20 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 83 60 86 62 / 20 30 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 83 57 87 58 / 30 40 40 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 56 88 56 / 30 40 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 58 85 59 / 30 30 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 58 85 58 / 30 20 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 58 86 59 / 30 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 63 88 64 / 30 20 50 20
RUIDOSO......................... 79 58 79 58 / 40 10 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 87 58 86 57 / 20 30 30 10
RATON........................... 89 56 89 56 / 30 30 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 92 56 91 56 / 30 30 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 56 86 57 / 30 30 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 95 66 94 66 / 10 20 20 30
ROY............................. 91 61 90 61 / 10 30 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 98 67 98 67 / 10 30 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 69 98 68 / 20 20 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 97 68 97 68 / 20 10 20 20
PORTALES........................ 97 68 98 68 / 20 10 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 68 98 68 / 20 10 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 100 70 99 70 / 20 10 5 20
PICACHO......................... 91 64 92 63 / 40 10 30 10
ELK............................. 87 60 89 59 / 40 10 50 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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