357
FXUS65 KABQ 231211 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
611 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AN INTENSE SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS IT
STREAMS NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES. BY FRIDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA,
THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING,
KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING WITH MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH
GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS FORECAST TO REACH NEARLY 250 PERCENT OF NORMAL
TODAY, THEN TO REMAIN UP TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ON THURSDAY,
RAIN RATES IN STRONGER CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO REACH 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BETWEEN 115-190 PERCENT OF
NORMAL ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD ENABLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, AND OVER 1
INCH PER HOUR ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE MOST LIKELY ADDITIONAL
RAIN AMOUNT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO VARY
AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST. THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE RAIN AMOUNT (SERVES
AS AN UPPER-END SCENARIO FOR PLANNING) INDICATES A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A FEW PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE AROUND 4 TO 8 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WITH 2-4
INCHES WEST OF THERE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND 0.5-2 INCHES
FARTHER WEST TO THE AZ BORDER.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHEN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL NO DOUBT LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TODAY AROUND 5-20 DEGREES
BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES, WHICH WILL PLACE THEM MOSTLY IN THE 60S
AND 70S, EXCEPT FOR SOME 50S AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS WILL TREND A FEW TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY, THEN A
FEW TO 3 DEGREES WARMER AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WHEN READINGS SHOULD
VARY FROM NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST SATURDAY, AND MOST PLACES ON SUNDAY AS
WELL, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER STEERS MUCH DRIER AIR OVER NM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, REACHING THE 70S AND 80S BY
SUNDAY; EXCEPT FOR 60S AND SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND AREAWIDE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN US DRAWS RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AGAIN. ON MONDAY, GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS LOOK TO PEAK
BETWEEN 170-200% OF NORMAL, OR FROM 1-1.28 INCHES, ENABLING A
RETURN OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR; AS
WELL AS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING THAT WILL PROBABLY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY (AT LEAST IN THE EAST). WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE EARLY
IN THE COMING WORK WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
FROM XNI TO GUP AND FMN, WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD PASS JUST
TO THE EAST. LATE TONIGHT, HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS
DECREASING IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AREAS OF MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, FOG, AND LOW CLOUDS; MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL
BE TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 25-35 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
WITH THE POWERFUL SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AND A SECONDARY SURGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 54 72 53 / 60 60 30 20
DULCE........................... 63 45 69 44 / 90 90 70 50
CUBA............................ 60 48 66 48 / 90 90 50 40
GALLUP.......................... 63 46 70 46 / 60 40 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 58 44 68 45 / 90 60 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 61 48 70 49 / 90 70 40 50
QUEMADO......................... 60 48 69 49 / 90 50 40 40
MAGDALENA....................... 59 51 68 52 / 100 70 50 70
DATIL........................... 57 47 67 49 / 90 70 40 60
RESERVE......................... 67 49 75 51 / 80 40 30 60
GLENWOOD........................ 74 54 80 56 / 90 50 30 70
CHAMA........................... 58 45 62 44 / 90 90 80 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 52 66 51 / 100 100 60 50
PECOS........................... 62 50 68 49 / 100 100 60 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 48 65 48 / 90 100 70 40
RED RIVER....................... 53 43 57 41 / 90 100 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 38 63 36 / 90 100 70 40
TAOS............................ 64 48 68 47 / 90 100 70 40
MORA............................ 61 49 68 47 / 90 100 70 50
ESPANOLA........................ 66 53 73 52 / 90 100 60 50
SANTA FE........................ 62 53 67 52 / 100 100 60 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 52 70 52 / 100 100 60 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 56 72 56 / 100 100 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 56 74 56 / 90 90 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 56 75 56 / 90 90 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 57 73 56 / 90 90 30 60
BELEN........................... 66 55 74 56 / 100 80 30 70
BERNALILLO...................... 67 56 74 56 / 90 90 30 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 54 74 54 / 90 80 30 70
CORRALES........................ 68 56 74 56 / 90 90 30 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 55 74 55 / 90 80 30 70
PLACITAS........................ 64 55 71 55 / 100 100 40 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 57 73 56 / 90 90 30 60
SOCORRO......................... 69 56 76 57 / 100 80 40 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 51 68 51 / 100 100 40 60
TIJERAS......................... 62 53 68 53 / 100 100 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 52 70 51 / 100 100 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 50 72 49 / 100 100 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 63 51 68 50 / 100 100 50 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 51 69 52 / 100 100 50 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 52 68 53 / 100 100 50 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 56 71 56 / 100 90 60 90
RUIDOSO......................... 63 52 68 52 / 90 90 70 90
CAPULIN......................... 64 51 67 51 / 80 100 70 60
RATON........................... 66 51 71 50 / 80 100 70 60
SPRINGER........................ 68 53 73 50 / 80 100 70 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 51 68 49 / 90 100 70 60
CLAYTON......................... 71 59 73 57 / 80 100 80 70
ROY............................. 66 56 70 54 / 90 100 70 70
CONCHAS......................... 74 61 77 60 / 90 100 80 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 69 60 73 59 / 100 90 70 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 60 77 59 / 90 90 60 80
CLOVIS.......................... 77 61 77 60 / 70 80 70 90
PORTALES........................ 78 63 79 61 / 60 80 70 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 62 76 61 / 90 90 70 90
ROSWELL......................... 77 62 78 63 / 60 90 60 90
PICACHO......................... 70 58 74 58 / 90 80 70 90
ELK............................. 69 56 73 56 / 90 80 70 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ201>241.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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