349
FXUS65 KABQ 082320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 403 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS
AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- DESPITE A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AREAWIDE.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
ALLOW TEMPS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO PLUMMET, THOUGH GENERALLY
SPEAKING, LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
THE UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY, THEREBY NOT HAVING ANY IMPACT ON NM
WEATHER. HOWEVER, A WEAK PERTURBATION IN WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
700MB WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NM. THOUGH MIXING HEIGHTS WON'T BE QUITE THAT HIGH, SOME MOMENTUM
ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ALLOWING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AROUND
20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM KLVS TO
KCQC EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS (AND HIGH TEMPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). VERY LOW RH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. MORE ON
THIS BELOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PIVOT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWEST TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AS THE LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD, MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH MODELS DIFFER REGARDING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH, BUT IS ALSO QUITE
THE OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER MODELS. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY
TUESDAY AND SHOULD WEAKLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY MID DAY. A FEW BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WHERE THE FRONT MEETS THE MOISTURE MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
EXIST. IF THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
PROJECTED, THEN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD ALSO AID IN PRECIP
PRODUCTION. THUS, LOW GRADE POPS FOR RAIN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. MODELS INDICATE PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL
TRACK FROM SOCAL NORTHEASTWARD OVER NW NM. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN
THE FLOW MAY ALLOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SQUEEZE OUT OVER NW NM
WED AND WED NIGHT. AGAIN, THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH ON THIS
ASPECT, BUT MOST MODELS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT
MOST. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL INCREASE
BREEZINESS ACROSS EASTERN NM. ON THURSDAY, THE PACIFIC TAP OF
MOISTURE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AS ROBUST, BUT ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN
MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT NM ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS REGARDING ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE EC
AND CMC PUSH A STRONGER FRONT MUCH FURTHER WESTWARD, WHILE THE
GFS HANGS UP THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
QUICK-HITTING STORM SYSTEM, THUS NOT MUCH RESIDENCE TIME FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO FALL TO
AROUND 7000-7500 FEET, SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, RIDGING
WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 403 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET WITH LIGHT AND TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER EASTERN NM MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30KT COMMON AFTER 1PM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM LAS VEGAS AND CLINES
CORNERS EASTWARD TO TUCUMCARI, CLOVIS AND THE TX BORDER. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WHILE DAYTIME RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT RH IS ALSO LIKELY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN NM.
ON TUESDAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS EARLY, THEN WEAKLY THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BY MID DAY. MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. WARM, MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS AND A FEW BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE FOR WED AND
THURS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NORTHWEST NM EACH DAY. BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM IMPACTS NM. LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
FAVORED, THOUGH FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE
FAVORED ABOVE 7000-7500 FEET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 27 63 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 61 20 61 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 25 61 28 60 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 16 64 19 63 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 24 62 27 60 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 18 66 20 64 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 24 65 29 61 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 33 64 38 61 / 0 0 5 10
DATIL........................... 28 62 32 59 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 25 68 30 66 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 28 71 33 69 / 0 0 5 20
CHAMA........................... 22 53 22 54 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 29 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 57 30 56 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 21 49 25 48 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 53 17 51 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 21 61 22 58 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 28 63 30 58 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 25 65 27 65 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 32 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 62 30 60 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 64 39 62 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 68 35 65 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 66 36 64 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 27 67 30 67 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 32 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 67 31 66 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 31 67 34 66 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 34 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 33 70 38 69 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 59 36 59 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 34 60 38 59 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 63 32 61 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 66 25 62 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 31 63 35 61 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 64 37 62 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 66 42 63 / 0 0 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 36 62 41 58 / 0 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 28 66 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 68 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 70 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 67 30 56 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 37 73 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 69 31 56 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 29 76 36 63 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 71 39 63 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 77 38 61 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 36 74 40 61 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 33 75 41 62 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 74 38 64 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 34 74 41 66 / 0 0 5 20
PICACHO......................... 37 73 43 67 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 34 72 41 66 / 0 0 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42
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