725
FXUS65 KABQ 101129 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND SUNDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON
MOSTLY THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL DEVELOP.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL TURN MORE SPOTTY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AS A
RESULT OF UPSTREAM FEATURES MOVING CLOSER. THESE INCLUDE A COLD
CORE LOW NEAR 30N, 125W AND TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WHICH WILL
PHASE TOGETHER AND MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CA BY SUNDAY. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES,
AND WHILE THE BULK OF IT WILL BE STEERED INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ,
MORE SUBTLE RISES WILL BE OBSERVED INTO NM. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE FROM CURRENT RANGES OF 0.4 TO 0.6 INCH
TOWARD A MORE RESPECTABLE 0.6 TO 1.0 INCH GAMUT. IN ADDITION,
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING IN CA AND AZ, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT INTO NM. THIS WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY. AS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER IS DRAWN INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THE INSTABILITY FROM
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE LIMITED (100 TO 500 J/KG) WITH NOT MUCH
PROSPECT FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INCREASED 700 TO 500 MB
LAYER WINDS OF 10 TO 20KT WILL STEER STORMS AT A DECENT PACE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH LOW QPF AMOUNTS BELOW 0.25 INCH IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED MOMENTUM ALOFT AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH IN NORTHEASTERN NM WILL YIELD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
THERE WITH BREEZY (GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH) SPEEDS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES IN WESTERN ZONES TODAY DUE
TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RISE A COUPLE
DEGREES IN THE WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONCENTRATE TOWARD THE CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM THIS EVENING WITH A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY.
WITH THE PACIFIC LOW AND REMNANTS OF RACHEL MOVING UP THE LOWER CO
RIVER BASIN ON SUNDAY, THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE
MEAN 700 TO 500 MB LAYER WINDS RISING TO 20 TO 45 KT. ANOTHER
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP, INDUCING STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BEING MORE
COMMON AND EVEN UP TO 45 MPH IN SCATTERED AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RATHER THAN A STEADY STREAM OF INCREASED MOISTURE, THERE SEEMS TO
BE A MOSAIC OR PATCHWORK OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO NM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. STILL, THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WOULD BE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST MODEST INSTABILITY. WHILE SPEED
SHEAR WOULD BE PRESENT, THE MEAGER INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY LIMIT
THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT SUNDAY, AND THE FAST MOVEMENT
WOULD ALSO KEEP QPF IN A 0.01 TO 0.25" RANGE WITH VERY SPOTTY
OUTLIERS THAT EXCEED.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
BY MONDAY, ANOTHER (DOUBLE VORT LOBE) COLD CORE LOW WILL BE
DROPPING DOWN THE CA COASTLINE WHILE HURRICANE SIMON ENCROACHES
UPON THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND (JALISCO). WHILE AMPLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM SIMON, IT WILL
LARGELY GET STEERED INTO WEST TX, BYPASSING NM ASIDE FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF NM DRY ON MONDAY AND
EVEN INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE SOUTHERN-MOST VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD CORE LOW MOVES OVER THE NV-UT BORDER. ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAVORED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
AND FAR EASTERN ZONES, MOSTLY ON TUESDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY WITH THE GRADIENT ALOFT
RESTRENGTHENING AND LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHS RECURRING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL IN WESTERN NM ON MONDAY,
REDUCING A FEW DEGREES INTO TUESDAY WHILE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AMONG THE GUSTY DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXIT OF THE COLD
CORE LOW INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN PACING THINGS MUCH QUICKER INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NEARBY HIGH PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND ENS MEAN ARE SLOWER, SUGGESTING
THAT THE LOW WOULD BECOME CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JETS, ALLOWING IT TO WANDER AIMLESSLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
WELL INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF ALL AVAILABLE
MODELS INDICATES THE LOW WOULD LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TETHERING TO
THE JET TO GET USHERED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT A WEAKER AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS IS STILL PROJECTED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, PERHAPS A WEAKER CUT-OFF LOW. FOR
NOW, BLENDED GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW POPS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS MODIFIED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SEEPS INTO
INTO THE AREA. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST, QUICKLY IMPACTING KGUP, KFMN, KGNT, K4SL, AND KE33 IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING TOWARD KAEG, KABQ, KLAM, AND KSAF
IN THE EVENING HOURS. ANY DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUICK WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KT AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LIKELY BEING
THE BIGGER AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST,
JUST FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
PREVAILING BREEZES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 15
TO 20 KT BEING COMMON. GUSTS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AT 25 TO 30 KT
IN FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS (KLVS, KRTN, KCAO).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SAT OCT 10 2026
HUMIDITY WILL TREND UPWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON VALUES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT IN MOST ZONES. WESTERN ZONES WILL
HAVE THE BEST SHOT FOR RAINFALL AS FAINT AND MODIFIED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SEEPS IN THIS WEEKEND, BUT SOAKING RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE ALL THAT WIDESPREAD WITH MANY WESTERN AREAS LIKELY NOT
EVEN RECEIVING 0.25 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN EASTERN ZONES WHILE WESTERN ZONES REDUCE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BREEZES WILL START TO INCREASE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL
BE COMMON. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE INTO SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BEING MORE COMMON ALONG WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THESE INCREASED WINDS
WILL FORTUNATELY BE OFFSET WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25
TO 35 PERCENT THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY LOOMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WEDNESDAY ONWARD, BUT
NO BLATANT PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE FORESEEN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 55 76 53 / 30 50 30 30
DULCE........................... 70 45 71 43 / 40 50 60 80
CUBA............................ 70 50 70 47 / 30 20 30 40
GALLUP.......................... 72 49 73 45 / 20 30 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 69 46 71 43 / 40 30 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 72 49 74 47 / 30 20 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 72 50 72 47 / 30 20 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 72 54 73 52 / 20 20 20 10
DATIL........................... 69 48 71 46 / 30 30 20 20
RESERVE......................... 75 50 72 49 / 20 30 60 40
GLENWOOD........................ 81 55 77 53 / 20 40 70 60
CHAMA........................... 64 45 65 43 / 40 50 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 52 71 52 / 10 20 20 30
PECOS........................... 72 49 72 49 / 0 20 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 48 69 48 / 10 20 20 50
RED RIVER....................... 60 41 60 41 / 10 20 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 37 67 37 / 5 10 10 40
TAOS............................ 71 47 72 46 / 5 20 10 40
MORA............................ 71 46 70 47 / 0 10 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 77 53 78 52 / 10 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 72 53 73 53 / 5 20 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 52 76 52 / 5 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 60 79 59 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 59 80 58 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 79 59 82 58 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 59 80 58 / 20 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 79 57 82 56 / 10 20 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 79 58 81 57 / 10 20 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 79 57 82 56 / 10 20 10 10
CORRALES........................ 79 59 81 58 / 10 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 57 82 57 / 10 20 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 76 58 78 57 / 10 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 59 80 58 / 20 20 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 80 59 82 57 / 0 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 53 73 52 / 10 20 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 73 55 76 54 / 10 20 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 51 76 51 / 5 20 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 50 78 50 / 5 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 52 75 52 / 0 10 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 73 52 75 52 / 0 10 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 73 53 75 53 / 0 10 5 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 57 79 58 / 0 5 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 70 52 73 52 / 0 5 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 74 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 78 49 79 50 / 0 0 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 51 74 52 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 81 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 77 54 78 56 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 84 61 87 63 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 82 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 83 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 86 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 81 57 84 58 / 0 5 5 10
ELK............................. 77 55 80 56 / 0 5 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page