304
FXUS65 KABQ 161147 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, WET MICROBURSTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE A WET WEDNESDAY AROUND THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY. A PLUME OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
NORTH/NORTHEAST IN-BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN VERY MOIST, BUT TODAY LOOKS
TO BE EVEN WETTER. PWATS WILL SURGE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE ALMOST
EVERYWHERE IN NEW MEXICO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS CONFLUENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTENSIFIES OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.
THE MAIN AREA OF OF PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN NM,
WITH SHOWERS BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SATELLITE TRENDS TONIGHT SUGGEST THERE SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION. SWATHS
OF MORE INSTABILITY WILL FOCUS HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE THE NORM IN MOST AREAS. THE MOST RECENT SOIL MOISTURE
ANALYSIS (0-10 CM) FROM NASA SPORT SHOWS THAT RAINFALL THE LAST TWO
DAYS HAS TURNED DRIER THAN NORMAL TOPSOIL TO NEAR RECORD WET TOPSOIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL REQUIRED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
GIVEN THE RECENT SATURATION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE
AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS, THE FLOOD WATCH WAS
EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE.
STRONG MERIDIONAL MOISTURE FLUX WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ALONG THE CREST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH PERSISTENT
RAINFALL AS UPDRAFTS GET ANCHORED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AS WELL CONSIDERING THE RECORD LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN
SCARS IS 0.75-1", WITH HIGH-END AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2".
WHILE A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM, AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. POPS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY HIGH DURING
THIS PERIOD FOR DAYS, BUT HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A LARGE SWATH OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CREST-LEVEL WINDS. THE
RRFS EVEN SHOWS IVT VALUES PEAKING OVER 500 UNITS ALONG THE MIDDLE
RGV LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF MUCH INSTABILITY.
THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY, TILTING THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MORE ZONALLY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN NM
(LIKELY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE). THIS AREA WILL PUSH INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY REQUIRE THE
ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH. 48-HOUR MEAN QPF AMOUNTS THIS
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING SHOW AT LEAST 0.5" FOR ALL AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS (2- 3") OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS SHOW OVER 3" ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
SUGGEST AT LEAST A 10% CHANCE OF 1"+ FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS OUTSIDE
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY, WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WESTERLY OVER NEW
MEXICO. THE CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR EAST/WEST FACING
SLOPES INSTEAD OF NORTH/SOUTH ONES, BUT VERY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. DRYING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME GETS DISRUPTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE
SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER, THE INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INCREASE SHEAR AND SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
MOISTURE IS FINALLY SCOURED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT AN UPTICK IS LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS ARE SHOWING
MOISTURE 150-200% OF NORMAL OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL LINGER INTO THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AFTER 18Z. HI-RES MODELS ARE STRUGGLING THIS MORNING WITH
INITIALIZATION SO CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AT TERMINALS IS LOW FOR TODAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE
GREATEST AND MOST PERSISTENT IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF
STORMS AREAWIDE. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH A BATCH OF
SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH MVFR CIGS
LIKELY EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER
06Z. NBM CIGS SUGGEST CLOUD BASES COULD DROP TO IFR LEVELS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT. DIVIDE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD IS LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY, WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING INCREASINGLY WESTERLY OVER NEW
MEXICO. THE CHANGE IN THE FLOW PATTERN WILL FAVOR EAST/WEST FACING
SLOPES INSTEAD OF NORTH/SOUTH ONES, BUT VERY SATURATED SOILS FROM
RECENT RAINFALL WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. DRYING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SUB-TROPICAL
PLUME GETS DISRUPTED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE
SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER, THE INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD INCREASE SHEAR AND SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
MOISTURE IS FINALLY SCOURED OUT ON SUNDAY, BUT AN UPTICK IS LIKELY
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE. BOTH THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS ARE SHOWING
MOISTURE 150-200% OF NORMAL OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL LINGER INTO THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 57 74 55 / 80 100 80 60
DULCE........................... 72 45 70 42 / 70 90 100 90
CUBA............................ 69 51 70 49 / 70 90 80 80
GALLUP.......................... 71 50 72 47 / 80 100 70 40
EL MORRO........................ 69 49 72 47 / 80 100 50 60
GRANTS.......................... 71 52 74 49 / 80 90 60 70
QUEMADO......................... 72 54 74 52 / 70 90 40 50
MAGDALENA....................... 72 58 75 57 / 60 90 40 60
DATIL........................... 70 54 72 53 / 70 80 60 70
RESERVE......................... 75 55 78 53 / 70 100 40 50
GLENWOOD........................ 80 58 84 57 / 70 100 50 60
CHAMA........................... 67 48 65 46 / 80 90 100 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 57 72 56 / 70 90 60 80
PECOS........................... 73 53 73 52 / 90 80 70 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 70 52 70 52 / 70 80 70 80
RED RIVER....................... 63 45 63 45 / 70 70 60 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 36 68 36 / 80 80 60 70
TAOS............................ 74 48 75 48 / 70 90 60 80
MORA............................ 71 51 72 50 / 80 90 60 60
ESPANOLA........................ 76 56 80 55 / 70 80 60 80
SANTA FE........................ 73 57 74 57 / 80 90 60 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 55 76 54 / 80 90 60 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 61 81 61 / 80 90 40 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 59 80 58 / 70 90 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 58 82 57 / 70 90 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 62 79 60 / 70 90 30 80
BELEN........................... 78 57 82 56 / 60 80 20 60
BERNALILLO...................... 77 60 81 59 / 70 90 40 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 56 82 54 / 60 80 20 70
CORRALES........................ 77 60 81 59 / 70 90 30 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 58 82 57 / 60 80 20 70
PLACITAS........................ 75 60 78 59 / 80 90 50 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 60 80 59 / 70 90 30 80
SOCORRO......................... 81 62 85 62 / 50 80 20 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 54 76 54 / 90 90 50 70
TIJERAS......................... 74 57 77 57 / 80 90 50 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 75 52 77 52 / 90 80 50 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 50 79 48 / 80 70 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 53 75 53 / 90 60 50 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 54 78 54 / 70 70 30 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 55 78 55 / 70 60 30 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 59 80 59 / 70 50 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 72 55 76 55 / 90 50 60 20
CAPULIN......................... 74 55 75 55 / 30 50 30 10
RATON........................... 77 52 78 52 / 70 70 50 20
SPRINGER........................ 80 54 80 54 / 60 70 40 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 53 74 52 / 80 90 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 81 61 83 63 / 10 30 0 5
ROY............................. 77 57 78 58 / 40 60 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 86 63 86 63 / 40 60 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 61 82 62 / 50 50 30 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 62 88 63 / 30 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 88 63 90 65 / 20 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 89 64 90 65 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 63 88 64 / 40 30 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 89 65 90 66 / 20 20 0 5
PICACHO......................... 80 58 84 60 / 80 40 40 10
ELK............................. 78 57 83 57 / 80 30 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NMZ201>209-226-241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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