348
FXUS65 KABQ 231751
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
TODAY. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING VERY RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER NM EXITS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM 0.10-0.50", BUT THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF (HIGH-END SCENARIO FOR PLANNING) DEPICTS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 1.5" FROM MOUNT TAYLOR NORTHWARD TO THE CO BORDER AND
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM MOUNT TAYLOR NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TO THE JEMEZ AND
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ACCUMULATED 1-2" OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT WILL ONLY TAKE
MODERATE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS TODAY,
SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THESE
AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES AGAIN APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS TO TURN SEVERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER IN MOST PLACES
TODAY, WITH READINGS VARYING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020
AVERAGES ALONG NM'S WESTERN BORDER, AND AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW, A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TODAY, THEN
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND CO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL AGAIN DRAW EXTREMELY
RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. A LINE OF CLEARING WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, THEN THROUGH CENTRAL
AREAS AS WELL SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS VERY ACTIVE
FARTHER EAST. WITH UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWATS REACHING AROUND 0.80"
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND AS MUCH AS 1.15" FARTHER
EAST, SOME STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY, THEN
OVER EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY, WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR. RAIN AMOUNTS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REACH AROUND
AROUND 0.50-3.0" ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND FROM 1-4" FARTHER EAST, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER
WEST. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS FOR THIS PERIOD REACH A
STAGGERING 3-7" ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
A FEW TO 4" OF SNOW ARE ALSO FORECAST ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT,
WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2 TO +4 C.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHEN READINGS SHOULD
VARY FROM A FEW TO AROUND 9 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
A SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
ENABLING ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS CROSSING ALOFT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO TREND
DOWNWARD, SO THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW.
OTHERWISE, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH OF NM DRAWS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY RETURN TO EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
PROGRESS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN MAKE
ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN US. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA, SINCE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM ARE SO
GREAT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS TAF CYCLE. STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL BE ON THE
FAST SIDE AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 30-45 KNOTS.
SOME STORMS MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN IN THE CARDS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SOUTH WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 45 64 43 / 20 20 80 50
DULCE........................... 62 43 61 41 / 90 70 80 90
CUBA............................ 63 45 60 42 / 80 70 80 80
GALLUP.......................... 64 41 63 36 / 10 20 30 10
EL MORRO........................ 64 41 61 36 / 10 20 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 66 41 63 33 / 20 40 70 20
QUEMADO......................... 66 44 64 36 / 5 10 20 5
MAGDALENA....................... 67 48 63 42 / 40 70 60 40
DATIL........................... 64 44 59 38 / 30 30 50 20
RESERVE......................... 68 45 65 37 / 10 30 30 5
GLENWOOD........................ 72 49 70 42 / 40 30 40 5
CHAMA........................... 55 42 55 39 / 90 90 90 100
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 47 56 43 / 80 90 100 100
PECOS........................... 66 45 59 42 / 90 100 100 100
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 44 58 42 / 80 90 100 90
RED RIVER....................... 54 39 49 36 / 80 80 100 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 41 52 38 / 80 90 100 100
TAOS............................ 65 43 58 39 / 80 90 100 90
MORA............................ 65 44 55 41 / 70 100 100 100
ESPANOLA........................ 72 50 64 46 / 70 90 100 90
SANTA FE........................ 66 47 59 45 / 80 90 100 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 68 48 61 45 / 70 90 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 51 63 47 / 40 80 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 53 65 49 / 40 80 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 52 66 48 / 50 80 90 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 51 65 47 / 60 80 90 80
BELEN........................... 76 52 72 49 / 30 70 80 70
BERNALILLO...................... 74 52 67 48 / 70 90 90 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 50 69 46 / 40 80 90 70
CORRALES........................ 74 51 67 47 / 70 80 90 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 50 71 46 / 40 80 80 70
PLACITAS........................ 71 51 63 47 / 70 90 90 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 53 68 49 / 70 80 90 80
SOCORRO......................... 77 53 71 47 / 30 80 80 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 48 62 46 / 50 90 90 80
TIJERAS......................... 69 50 63 47 / 50 90 90 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 48 61 46 / 50 90 100 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 45 62 41 / 50 90 100 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 45 59 41 / 60 90 90 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 48 64 45 / 40 90 80 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 48 63 45 / 50 90 80 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 52 68 50 / 40 90 80 80
RUIDOSO......................... 71 47 64 45 / 40 80 80 90
CAPULIN......................... 67 48 56 39 / 30 80 100 100
RATON........................... 71 48 56 41 / 50 80 100 100
SPRINGER........................ 73 49 60 43 / 50 80 100 100
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 44 55 40 / 80 100 90 100
CLAYTON......................... 74 53 64 48 / 20 70 90 90
ROY............................. 69 50 59 46 / 60 90 100 100
CONCHAS......................... 78 56 67 53 / 60 80 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 54 64 52 / 50 80 100 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 56 67 52 / 30 70 80 90
CLOVIS.......................... 78 53 65 53 / 5 40 70 80
PORTALES........................ 80 56 72 56 / 0 40 60 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 78 56 68 55 / 40 80 80 90
ROSWELL......................... 81 58 69 56 / 10 70 70 90
PICACHO......................... 78 53 67 52 / 40 90 80 90
ELK............................. 76 50 66 49 / 30 80 90 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ203-204-206-207-211.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...23
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