467
FXUS65 KABQ 051156 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
556 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM THROUGH SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING ONTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP AS WELL WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. HEAT-ILLNESSES
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND FAR
NORTHEAST NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A BOUNDARY PUSHING WESTWARD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF
SHORTLY TO AROUND SUNRISE. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL NM COMBINED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY PWATS
BETWEEN 0.6 TO 1.1 INCHES AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER CALIFORNIA WILL HELP RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN THE RUIDOSO AREA WITH THE HREF
MAX 6 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES. GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT SOILS AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ON
THE BURN SCAR, OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
RUIDOSO AREA FOR TODAY. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO EASTERN NM, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE DUE TO MLCAPE VALUES > 1000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
SOME VIRGA ACTIVITY WITH SOME SPRINKLES AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AREAWIDE WITH
LOWER ELEVATIONS TIPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. SOME
LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE
SANTA FE AND ABQ METROS BEFORE CLEARING SKIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER MOISTURE PUSHES WEST INTO WESTERN NM MONDAY MORNING WITH
PWATS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AROUND 0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MIDDAY WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL NM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM WILL BE DRIER IN NATURE
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER HEAVIER
RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS, IT WILL BE HOT WITH MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE STATE GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE STATE MONDAY SHIFTS WEST INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH PWATS
AROUND 0.6 TO 1 INCH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DRIER IN
NATURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
MIDNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. DRIER AIR LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NM DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST TOWARDS THE STATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 600 DAM AT 500 MB NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOST
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS REMAINING DRY. THE HIGHER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 90S
TO LOW 100S, THUS RESULTING IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM AND NEAR KROW SHOULD TAPER
OFF LATER THIS MORNING. A NEW CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG WITH VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
MIDDAY SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS
AREAWIDE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KTS WITH STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LARGE HAIL. LINGERING STORMS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY SOUTHEAST CANYON
WINDS AT KSAF AND KABQ THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK, FAVORING
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND ALL
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE DRIFTING INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS
BEGINNING MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ALONG WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN
SCARS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM WILL BE ON THE DRIER
SIDE WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
THE BIGGER THREAT. LOWERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES AS
AN UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 64 96 64 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 93 48 93 49 / 0 0 10 5
CUBA............................ 90 58 90 58 / 0 0 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 91 55 91 55 / 0 0 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 86 57 87 56 / 0 0 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 90 57 91 56 / 0 5 50 10
QUEMADO......................... 88 60 89 58 / 10 5 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 87 65 88 63 / 30 10 50 5
DATIL........................... 84 62 85 59 / 10 10 60 20
RESERVE......................... 93 57 94 54 / 10 10 60 30
GLENWOOD........................ 98 62 98 59 / 10 10 50 30
CHAMA........................... 86 48 85 48 / 0 0 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 63 87 64 / 10 5 40 20
PECOS........................... 88 54 89 56 / 20 0 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 87 56 / 5 0 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 77 46 78 48 / 20 5 40 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 42 82 45 / 20 5 40 10
TAOS............................ 89 51 90 53 / 5 0 20 10
MORA............................ 83 52 85 54 / 40 5 50 10
ESPANOLA........................ 95 60 95 61 / 5 0 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 89 61 90 63 / 5 0 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 59 92 60 / 0 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 68 95 69 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 65 97 65 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 64 99 64 / 0 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 67 97 68 / 0 5 10 10
BELEN........................... 97 63 98 63 / 10 5 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 97 65 98 66 / 5 5 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 97 62 97 62 / 10 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 98 66 99 66 / 5 5 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 63 98 64 / 10 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 94 67 / 5 5 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 66 97 67 / 5 5 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 98 70 99 68 / 20 5 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 61 90 62 / 5 5 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 90 61 91 62 / 5 5 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 56 92 58 / 5 5 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 53 93 54 / 10 10 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 54 87 57 / 20 5 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 57 91 58 / 20 5 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 59 89 59 / 30 10 40 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 91 64 92 64 / 50 10 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 83 58 83 59 / 60 10 60 20
CAPULIN......................... 83 51 86 55 / 70 20 40 20
RATON........................... 88 50 90 54 / 60 10 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 89 52 92 55 / 50 10 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 88 57 / 40 10 50 10
CLAYTON......................... 90 58 92 63 / 50 30 10 10
ROY............................. 86 55 89 60 / 40 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 94 60 97 64 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 59 92 63 / 30 20 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 61 96 67 / 30 40 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 93 62 94 66 / 30 50 10 20
PORTALES........................ 94 62 95 67 / 30 40 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 62 95 66 / 20 30 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 97 66 97 69 / 10 20 5 5
PICACHO......................... 91 62 92 63 / 30 20 30 5
ELK............................. 89 59 90 60 / 40 20 40 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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