861
FXUS65 KABQ 270536 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A REMNANT MCV IS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS GRANTS, NM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RADAR SHOWING STORMS BLOSSOMING ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CO WITH A LARGE, DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE 18Z PWAT AT
KABQ WAS DOWN TO 1.15", H5 TEMPS WARMED TO NEAR -3C, AND STEERING
FLOW VEERED MORE SOUTHERLY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW
THAT TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LESS STORM COVERAGE THAN
RECENT DAYS. THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM
WITH SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. THERE IS STILL A MODERATE TO
HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING OVER WESTERN NM FROM ANY STRONGER
CELLS GIVEN THE RECENT STRETCH OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE 12Z SUITE
OF QPF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS CELLS WITH SMALLER FOOTPRINTS BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.50". LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH LOTS OF
60S AND 70S.
THE H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NM MONDAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO STORM COVERAGE. PWATS WILL REMAIN >1" AREAWIDE WITH
TYPICAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER EASTERN CO ON THE
NAM12 MONDAY EVENING LOOKS TO FORCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NM LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BECOME A PLAYER FOR STORMS
ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL TREND HOTTER FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SEVERAL ZONES NOW HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY, INCLUDING
THE ABQ METRO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST NM WHERE A REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BECOME
DRAPED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
SINCE THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE IS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN CLOSE TO -3C WITH THE 597DM HIGH CENTER NEAR NORTHERN NM.
PWATS WILL REMAIN >1" SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WHEREVER
CELLS DO FORM. IT WILL STAY HOT AS WELL WITH MORE HEAT ADVISORIES
LIKELY FOR A FEW ZONES TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER CONTINUES
DRIFTING WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NM WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORECAST
PWATS NOTED AT KABQ. OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN HOT WITH AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST A FEW ZONES EACH DAY. STORM
COVERAGE WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANGES IN STEERING
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NE NM WILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE, STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN ON SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF IFR
VSBYS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF
SITE ATTM. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. PATCHY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION MAY STILL LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES. A STRONG MONSOON HIGH WILL
MEANDER WEST OVER NORTHERN NM THIS WEEK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
TREND HOTTER AREAWIDE. THE FOCUS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. SMALL RAINFALL
FOOTPRINTS OF 1 TO 2" MAY CREATE FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 98 69 100 / 20 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 55 95 58 97 / 30 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 61 93 63 94 / 20 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 61 91 62 92 / 20 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 59 87 60 89 / 20 20 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 62 92 63 93 / 20 30 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 61 88 62 89 / 20 10 20 50
MAGDALENA....................... 66 91 67 92 / 20 30 20 30
DATIL........................... 62 87 62 88 / 20 30 20 50
RESERVE......................... 59 94 61 95 / 20 30 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 63 99 65 100 / 20 20 20 60
CHAMA........................... 54 88 56 88 / 20 20 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 93 68 92 / 20 20 20 50
PECOS........................... 62 94 63 92 / 20 20 20 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 91 59 89 / 40 30 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 53 81 52 79 / 40 50 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 86 51 84 / 20 40 30 70
TAOS............................ 60 94 61 92 / 20 20 20 40
MORA............................ 59 91 60 88 / 20 30 30 70
ESPANOLA........................ 68 100 69 98 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 67 94 67 92 / 20 10 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 97 66 96 / 20 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 99 73 99 / 20 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 100 72 100 / 20 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 103 71 102 / 20 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 100 73 100 / 20 0 20 20
BELEN........................... 69 102 72 102 / 20 5 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 70 102 72 101 / 20 0 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 102 70 101 / 20 5 20 20
CORRALES........................ 71 102 72 102 / 20 0 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 102 71 101 / 20 5 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 70 97 70 97 / 20 0 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 100 72 101 / 20 0 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 73 103 75 103 / 20 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 95 66 94 / 20 5 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 66 95 67 94 / 20 0 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 97 64 96 / 20 5 20 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 98 62 96 / 20 5 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 92 64 91 / 20 10 20 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 96 64 95 / 20 5 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 94 65 94 / 20 0 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 98 72 98 / 10 0 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 65 91 67 91 / 10 20 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 61 94 60 89 / 20 20 40 70
RATON........................... 60 99 61 94 / 20 20 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 62 101 63 96 / 20 20 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 94 62 91 / 20 20 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 70 104 70 98 / 10 20 20 20
ROY............................. 66 98 67 94 / 20 10 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 71 105 71 102 / 20 0 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 102 69 99 / 10 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 107 73 104 / 10 0 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 70 104 71 104 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 71 105 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 104 72 104 / 10 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 106 75 106 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 101 70 100 / 0 5 5 5
ELK............................. 65 98 67 98 / 5 20 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ217-219-221-
228-230>232-234>238.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34
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