263
FXUS65 KABQ 031720 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1120 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY.
- A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE FARMINGTON AND SANTA
FE AREAS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT PLANTS, PETS, AND
PIPES FROM A DAMAGING FREEZE EVENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN THE BASE OF A 547DM H5 LOW OVER
WY IS SPREADING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS CURRENTLY NEAR 50KT ARE DRAPED
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS
THIS MORNING IF OBS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
MEANWHILE, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS AND WILL BLAST THRU ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY BY NOON ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40. THE REFS AND NBM 75TH PERCENTILE WINDS ARE SUPPORTIVE A
LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH SO A COUPLE MORE IMPROMPTU WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. THE AIRMASS ARRIVING BEHIND THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY WITH SURFACE HUMIDITY FALLING
BELOW 10% IN MANY AREAS. THE RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN NM BUT FOLKS FARTHER
WEST TOWARD THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METRO AREAS MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE
HOURS WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY. THE RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY
WAS HEAVY ENOUGH IN SEVERAL AREAS TO HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL
THREAT. THE BOSQUE AREA IS THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME. MAX
TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND IT WILL FEEL
EVEN COLDER WITH THE STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHERN NM.
THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL POISED TO MOVE
SOUTH THRU EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WITH A SHARP NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT. THE COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR
STORM OVER SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT AND/OR SOUTHEAST CHAVES COUNTIES
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING THERE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. STORM CHANCES ARE LOW AND THE LATEST HREF 6-HR PROBABILITY
MATCHED MEAN (PMM) QPF >0.10" IS ONLY SHOWN OVER LEA COUNTY.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. A
FREEZE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED IN THE VALLEY AREAS FROM FARMINGTON
TO ESPANOLA, SANTA FE, ABQ, AND THE ESTANCIA BASIN. THE HISTORIC
HEAT FROM MARCH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS 2 TO
6 WEEKS EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE IN THESE AREAS.
ONE ISSUE FOR THE RGV MAY BE THAT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS DELAY
THE MORE EFFICIENT COOLING FROM ABQ SOUTHWARD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL ALSO MOVE OVERHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING
SATURDAY, TEMPS WILL WARM TO WITHIN +-5F OF NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE TONIGHT. FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY AGAIN IN MOST NORTHERN AND
WESTERN VALLEYS. FOLKS FROM FARMINGTON TO ESPANOLA, SANTA FE, AND
THE ESTANCIA BASIN WILL HOVER CLOSER TO FREEZING COMPARED TO THE
HARD FREEZE TONIGHT SO A FREEZE WATCH MAY NOT BE NEEDED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON EASTER SUNDAY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BENEATH A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST NM ALONG WITH IMPROVING LIFT WITH A 95KT
SPEED MAX NEAR THE BAJA WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
GILA REGION. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS TIME
GIVEN MLCAPE <200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES ONLY SLIGHTLY <0C. NAM12
DCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH LAPSE RATES >8C/KM SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST
WINDS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IMPROVES MONDAY WITH PWATS FORECAST TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75" SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX APPROACHING FROM THE BAJA WILL
FORCE A SUBTLE TROUGH AXIS OVER NM MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION SO CONFIDENCE ON QPF IS LOW. THE LATEST NBM HAS
TRENDED DRIER MONDAY WITH LOW PROBABILITIES OF >0.05". HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE CARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TWO MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THRU THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY DO TREND ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN BUT WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY LIGHTER
WINDS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM, INCLUDING KCAO, BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WITH
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET WHILE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS EVENING TURN
NORTHERLY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. PEAK GUSTS AROUND
25 TO 35 KTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SLOWLY TAPER OFF AND TURN EASTERLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS IN STORE AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SURGE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A VERY DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN FOCUS AREA WILL BE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN NM
WHERE FUELS ARE ALSO DRIEST. THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FARTHER WEST IN THE AREA FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO CUBA,
ABQ, SANTA FE, AND EDGEWOOD. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL DURATION IS NOT
LONG ENOUGH WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL TO SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING
AT THIS TIME.
BEYOND TODAY, THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL DECREASE WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY, RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS, AND GREATER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. A COUPLE DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 23 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 55 17 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 23 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 16 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 25 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 60 16 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 24 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 31 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 63 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 73 25 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 33 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 19 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 33 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 26 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 26 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 19 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 13 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 58 15 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 60 24 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 26 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 29 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 25 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 38 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 34 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 31 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 36 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 30 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 34 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 28 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 34 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 31 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 35 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 79 38 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 32 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 27 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 21 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 29 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 24 58 28 / 5 10 0 0
RATON........................... 66 23 62 26 / 5 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 24 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 26 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 31 62 36 / 5 10 0 0
ROY............................. 70 29 61 32 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 34 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 36 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 42 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 83 41 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 39 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 80 36 65 36 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201-217>219-
222.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ223.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ125-126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page