194
FXUS65 KABQ 200737
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
137 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- FLASH FLOOD RISK INCREASES IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS, WITH DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SOME DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION FAVORING CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
MEANWHILE, THE POTENT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THIS STORM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM.
STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST IVT (INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT) OVER
CENTRAL ARIZONA. NORTHWEST NM WILL BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL DRIVE MOST OF THE
RAINFALL (AS OPPOSED TO DESTABILIZATION) SO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE FAVORED. THIS COULD CHANGE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER
ARIZONA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT INLAND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY, WITH VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW KEEPS THE
MAIN VORT MAX WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL
FOCUS THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY
THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATER IN THE
DAY. PWATS WILL PEAK EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AT 4 TO 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER, SHATTERING RECORD
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH FOR
SOAKING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, BUT
INSTABILITY REMAINS A BIG QUESTION MARK. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE, KEEPING THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OFF
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
EVEN WITH THE ABSENCE OF ROBUST INSTABILITY, ROUNDS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES FOR
SENSITIVE LOW-LYING AREAS THAT CANNOT HANDLE LARGE VOLUMES OF WATER.
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB JET MAX WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW SUPERCELLS NEAR THE
ARIZONA BORDER AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
PROVIDE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS WELL. GIVEN RECENT STORM TRACK
SHIFTS AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXACTLY WHERE CORRIDORS OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDE LEAVE A BIG QUESTION MARK AROUND WHERE
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. FURTHERMORE, IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FLOOD THREAT WILL NOT NECESSARILY FOLLOW THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL CYCLE WITH THE THREAT PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT. POCKETS OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
INSTABILITY COULD KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY RATES AROUND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
WHILE THE ENERGY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
FRIDAY, DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER NEW
MEXICO. ALL 3 DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS NOW FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANOTHER LOW OVER ARIZONA, WHICH WOULD KEEP LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NIGHT AND DAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING THIS WAY AS
WELL, ALTHOUGH AROUND 50% OF MODELS STILL FAVOR AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND. WITH EITHER SCENARIO, RAIN
CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AS A BACKDOOR FRONT AND GULF MOISTURE INTERACT OVER THE
AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW STORMS REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALLOWING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL FAVOR WESTERN NM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STORMS IN CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. ISOLATED STORMS FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY, WITH STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 3-DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-
2" ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY MANY STORMS AND A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. STORM COVERAGE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FORECAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PREVAILING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE MID-WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. FAIR TO GOOD
VENTILATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH DETERIORATION LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 51 66 50 / 5 20 80 90
DULCE........................... 67 38 68 44 / 10 10 80 90
CUBA............................ 66 46 69 50 / 10 5 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 69 47 67 47 / 10 30 70 80
EL MORRO........................ 68 44 69 48 / 10 20 80 70
GRANTS.......................... 69 46 67 47 / 20 20 80 50
QUEMADO......................... 70 47 72 51 / 10 5 40 40
MAGDALENA....................... 67 51 69 53 / 50 5 20 20
DATIL........................... 67 46 68 50 / 20 10 40 30
RESERVE......................... 72 48 75 51 / 20 20 50 70
GLENWOOD........................ 77 54 80 55 / 30 40 70 80
CHAMA........................... 60 39 63 45 / 10 5 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 50 64 49 / 20 5 30 70
PECOS........................... 67 43 72 48 / 10 10 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 43 68 48 / 20 0 20 40
RED RIVER....................... 54 35 60 41 / 20 0 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 32 63 39 / 10 0 10 30
TAOS............................ 68 40 68 46 / 10 0 20 50
MORA............................ 66 39 69 45 / 10 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 72 45 75 51 / 20 5 20 60
SANTA FE........................ 68 50 67 51 / 20 5 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 48 69 49 / 10 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 57 75 56 / 20 5 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 54 74 54 / 20 5 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 53 76 53 / 10 5 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 55 74 55 / 10 5 20 40
BELEN........................... 74 51 78 54 / 20 5 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 75 53 77 54 / 20 5 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 51 78 53 / 20 5 10 30
CORRALES........................ 75 53 77 54 / 10 5 20 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 52 78 55 / 20 5 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 71 54 73 54 / 20 5 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 53 78 55 / 10 5 20 40
SOCORRO......................... 75 54 75 54 / 30 5 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 49 72 51 / 20 10 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 68 51 73 53 / 20 10 20 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 46 72 49 / 20 10 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 71 43 70 47 / 20 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 48 70 47 / 20 10 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 48 74 49 / 30 10 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 48 73 50 / 30 10 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 54 77 55 / 20 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 48 72 50 / 30 0 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 44 70 50 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 75 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 74 39 75 48 / 5 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 45 68 46 / 10 0 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 74 52 77 56 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 72 43 75 52 / 10 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 79 50 81 56 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 50 78 53 / 30 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 55 82 56 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 76 52 78 52 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 77 53 82 54 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 53 80 53 / 10 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 55 80 56 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 75 50 79 52 / 30 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 50 79 51 / 30 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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