807
FXUS65 KABQ 012340 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 431 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
- AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY MAY IMPACT AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY MORNING ONCE AGAIN.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS AREA SHOULD FINALLY SEE
SOME SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP MELT THE SNOW THAT IS STILL
ON THE GROUND. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE HINTING THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
FREEZING FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THUS, A MENTION OF PATCHY
FREEZING FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, QUIET,
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE
NOTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT THESE BREEZES SHOULD GET A
LITTLE STRONGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW, ESPECIALLY FROM CLINES CORNERS AND VAUGHN TO THE TX
BORDER. MAX GUSTS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE, WHEREAS
ON MONDAY, MAX WIND GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND KCQC. THE DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM EVEN MORESO THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 COMMON ACROSS EASTERN NM. FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS ON
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AT UPPER LEVELS, THE RIDGE OVER NM TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT AND A WEAK WAVE WILL CROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE, BUT EVEN
DESPITE THAT, TEMPERATURES WILL INCH UPWARD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE INITIAL WAVE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD,
DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
BREEZES WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SECOND PERTURBATION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO SLIDE OVER NM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID AND UPPER
LEVELS, THEREBY CLEARING THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 6 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY THAN THEY WILL BE ON
MONDAY.
ON TUESDAY, AS A REX BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE WEST
COAST, A STRONG NORTHERLY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAK TROUGH
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE ROCKIES, NOSING INTO NORTHEAST NM
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
NORTHEAST NM AS WELL. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE QUITE MEAGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM, BUT ENOUGH LIFT MAY EXIST TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TUES NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
PRESS WESTWARD TO THE AZ BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS, THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM. ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NM EARLY
WEDNESDAY WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER, AND FORECAST HIGHS
MAY BE LOWERED MORE IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.
THE COOLDOWN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE REX BLOCK STARTS TO LEAN
OVER ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PORTION OF THE BLOCKING
PATTERN TO SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NM. THOUGH MIXING
WILL BE WEAK, PLENTY OF SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
QUICKLY. THE EVOLUTION OF HOW THE UPPER LOW PORTION OF THE
BLOCKING PATTERN EJECTS EASTWARD IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT FOR
NOW, SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER NM WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO, INCLUDING THE ABQ FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME HAZE/MIST (HZ/BR)
STILL BEING REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR KATS. LIGHT
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS
CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING IN. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
PECOS VALLEY FROM MELTING SNOW IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
LOW STRATUS AND FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE AREAL EXTENT OF FOG IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
THAN TODAY AND YESTERDAY, BUT WILL STILL IMPACT KROW AND NEARBY
RURAL AREAS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS POTENTIALLY AS
LOW AS 400 FT AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 SM). FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL GO AWAY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY.
BREEZES WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO
25 KT BEING COMMON (SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NEAR
KCQC). WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHERLY IN THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT
ACCOMPANYING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS SOME SPRINKLES
AND FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT DIP BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS (ONE MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT). A FEW WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE NOTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
NM, BUT STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NE NM. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40
MPH ARE EXPECTED MON AFTN FROM KCQC TO THE TX BORDER. RH VALUES
WILL ALSO BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE BACKDOOR FRONTS
WILL RAISE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUE AND WED, BUT
RH WILL FALL BACK BELOW OR NEAR 20% FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
IN THESE AREAS. POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AND ALL AREAS
BY THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 55 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 55 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 24 55 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 18 60 16 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 57 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 19 60 18 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 58 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 32 61 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 28 57 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 26 66 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 29 68 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 20 49 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 53 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 29 57 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 50 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 43 15 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 49 6 46 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 18 55 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 29 58 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 24 61 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 30 55 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 57 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 60 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 61 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 63 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 62 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 22 62 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 63 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 63 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 30 64 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 62 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 32 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 31 63 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 65 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 55 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 32 55 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 28 57 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 60 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 54 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 29 58 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 59 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 59 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 54 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 59 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 21 61 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 20 65 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 62 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 64 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 65 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 25 69 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 32 67 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 70 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 67 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 29 68 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 69 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 26 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 68 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 67 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page