808
FXUS65 KABQ 261931
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
131 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL ACCOMPANY
STORMS MAINLY THRU EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING AND LATE
THURSDAY.
- RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE 598DM H5 MONSOON HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GILA NF AND WEST-
CENTRAL NM WITH THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING MEASURING A HEALTHY 0.98" PWAT.
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER OF H5 HIGH HOWEVER, ANY AFTERNOON
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED WITH SLOW MOTIONS AND SMALL
WETTING FOOTPRINTS. THE 18Z ABQ UA SOUNDING ALSO MEASURED 1254 J/KG
OF DCAPE, WHICH ALONGSIDE THE WIDESPREAD 40-50F WILL SUPPORT STRONG
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EMANATING FROM THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THRU CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF STORMS ROLLING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL
THREATEN LARGE HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING
HIGHER MOISTURE AND SBCAPE OF 1000-1700 J/KG UNDERLYING MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PRODUCING 25-30KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
THESE CELLS WILL CONGLOMERATE AND CLUSTER OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM
STRETCHING FROM CLAYTON SOUTHWARD TO CLOVIS AND PORTALES THIS
EVENING, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY GO. SURFACE
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SURGE THRU
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PRODUCING EAST CANYON WINDS
AT SANTA FE AND ABQ AGAIN THIS EVENING, NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS LONG
THRU THE NIGHT HOWEVER.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SETUP WITH
SLOWER MOVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF WESTERN NM WITH LONGER LASTING AND STRONG STORMS ROLLING
S/SE OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE HIGHLANDS. THE SUBTLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE A STRONG N-S STEERING FLOW OVER EASTERN NM
LIMITING HOW FAR EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS PROGRESS
TOWARD THE TX BORDER. THIS WILL ALSO FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
EAST CANYON WINDS PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN INTO SANTA FE AND ABQ. FRIDAY'S SUBTLE DIFFERENCE RELATIVE TO
THURSDAY WILL SEE SHORTER LIVED STORMS MOVING MORE S/SSW OFF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL THE WHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE 70S/80S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 90S TO NEAR 100F IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINNING SATURDAY WILL SEE THE MONSOON HIGH
BEGIN TO SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS NM WITH THE START OF A HEALTHY
MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CA
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS PLUME WILL FOCUS OVER EASTERN AZ AND
WESTERN NM WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE N/NE THRU THE LATE DAY AND EVENING
PERIOD. PWATS STEADILY CLIMB UPWARD TO 1.10" TO 1.20" WHICH WILL
YIELD HEALTHY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS, IN TURN INCREASING THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS OF WESTERN NM THIS WEEKEND.
THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK STEERING FLOW, STEERING
STORMS AT A 20-30MPH CLIP. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
MAINLY TO AREAS OF WESTERN NM SEEING REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORED FURTHER
EAST ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE 100F.
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING FAIR SIGNALS THAT THE H5 HIGH
WILL EXPAND BACK WEST OVER NM, REDUCING THE INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND RAISING TEMPERATURES AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR INITIATION
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY WITH THE LONGEST LASTING STORMS
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CLUSTER TOGETHER OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM WHERE IT WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. A PERIOD OF ERRATIC AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS IS FAVORED TO IMPACT KSAF AND KABQ B/W 22Z TO 03Z
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLIES FAVORED THRU THE CANYONS THEREAFTER TO
NEAR OR JUST PAST THE MIDNIGHT HOUR BEFORE CALMING. CALMER WINDS
AND VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
PREVAILING DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE
MAIN WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE HIGHER MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS
EASTERN NM ALONGSIDE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THRU
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SPARSE ACROSS
WESTERN NM AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE SATURDAY AS A MONSOON
PLUME OF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NM,
FLIPPING THE SCRIPT TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
NM. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL
BE THE RULE SATURDAY THRU MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST TOWARD TX. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL REMAIN IN A BUFFER
IN BETWEEN ZONE MAINLY DEFINED BY STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 96 66 96 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 92 47 92 / 5 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 56 90 57 91 / 20 10 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 91 59 91 / 5 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 87 57 87 / 10 10 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 58 90 59 90 / 10 20 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 60 89 60 89 / 10 10 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 63 88 63 88 / 30 10 20 30
DATIL........................... 60 86 59 86 / 20 20 20 40
RESERVE......................... 59 96 59 95 / 10 20 10 50
GLENWOOD........................ 66 102 65 100 / 10 10 10 30
CHAMA........................... 51 85 51 86 / 5 30 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 86 61 87 / 40 40 20 30
PECOS........................... 56 87 56 88 / 50 20 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 84 53 86 / 30 20 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 45 75 46 77 / 40 20 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 80 36 82 / 40 40 20 10
TAOS............................ 52 87 52 90 / 30 20 10 5
MORA............................ 51 83 52 86 / 50 50 30 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 93 60 95 / 40 20 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 60 87 61 88 / 50 10 20 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 90 59 91 / 40 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 96 68 97 / 20 0 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 96 66 97 / 20 0 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 98 65 99 / 10 0 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 96 67 97 / 10 0 20 0
BELEN........................... 64 97 65 98 / 20 0 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 97 66 98 / 20 0 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 98 63 98 / 10 0 20 0
CORRALES........................ 65 98 66 99 / 20 0 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 97 65 98 / 10 0 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 93 65 94 / 20 0 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 97 66 97 / 20 0 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 70 99 / 20 5 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 90 60 90 / 20 5 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 60 91 62 91 / 20 5 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 91 57 92 / 20 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 93 55 93 / 20 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 87 57 88 / 30 20 30 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 91 58 91 / 20 10 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 90 59 90 / 20 10 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 93 64 92 / 20 20 40 10
RUIDOSO......................... 59 85 58 84 / 20 40 40 60
CAPULIN......................... 53 82 55 85 / 60 40 20 5
RATON........................... 52 85 52 88 / 50 40 30 10
SPRINGER........................ 53 87 54 90 / 50 50 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 55 87 / 50 60 30 30
CLAYTON......................... 61 86 62 90 / 40 10 20 0
ROY............................. 57 85 58 88 / 50 10 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 64 96 / 50 5 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 90 62 92 / 50 10 40 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 93 64 95 / 50 5 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 94 65 94 / 60 10 30 0
PORTALES........................ 66 95 65 94 / 60 10 30 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 95 65 96 / 50 0 40 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 98 69 98 / 40 0 30 0
PICACHO......................... 62 93 61 93 / 20 20 50 10
ELK............................. 61 92 59 91 / 10 50 30 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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