974
FXUS65 KABQ 051943
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
143 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
CHANGES SINCE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...NOT MANY IF ANY AT ALL.
OTHER THAN SOME SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN DAY TO DAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO LOOK LESS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST DATA. A HEAT ADIVSORY FOR TOMORROW WAS ADDED FOR
THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY EXCEPT THE FAR WESTERN ZONE WAS REMOVED
AND THE ZONE FOR THE ESPANOLA VALLEY WAS ADDED.
FORECAST STILL HINTS AT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF AZ/NM
WILL CONTRACT BACK OVER AZ LATE TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NM WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IN THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. ALREADY SEEING STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE MAY NOT
BE QUITE LIKE IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WITH HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS. NO SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK FOR
TOMORROW BUT STILL THE SIMILAR OUTLINE FOR SUB-SEVERE STORMS.
HEAT RISK LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY THE SAME THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ESPANOLA VALLEY WAS ADDED TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY JUST BELOW OR AT CRITERIA SO
IT MADE SENSE TO INCLUDE THAT AREA. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WEST OF
THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS AND GALLUP ARE LESS SO THINK IT IS SAFE TO DROP
THE ADVISORY THERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOES MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS IDEA. THE PROBLEM IS THAT AS THE RIDGE MOVES
TO THE WEST IT ALSO BECOMES STRONGER. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT DROP MUCH AS THE RIDGE MOVES AWAY DUE
TO IT STRENGTHENING AT THE SAME TIME. THE END RESULT MEANS THAT
HIGH TEMPERATURES DO NOT DECREASE MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WE WILL
LIKELY BE RE-ISSUING HEAT ADVISORIES INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A LOT
OF THE SAME AREAS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY INTO TUESDAY THE RIDGE DOES BECOME
WEAKER WITH LOWER HEIGHTS MEANING LESS SUBSIDENCE. BY NEXT TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS MORE PRONOUNCED OVER
SE AZ AND E AZ WITH SOME MOISTURE FILTERING INTO NM. THERE IS NOT
MUCH TO BANK ON WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT THE FORECAST DOES TREND
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE BUT NEW MEXICO REALLY
NEEDS THE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR NEW MEXICO TERMINALS.
TAFS REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SAME FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MINOR
TWEAKS. CONVECTION SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
POCKETS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS ACROSS TO
THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THE MAIN REASON FOR THIS IS A
COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS.
FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANYWHERE CLOSE TO
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL LEVELS. STILL THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
FUEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS ACROSS THE STATE POSING AS THE TYPICAL HAZARDS. THE RECENT
RUN OF SMALL FIRES ACROSS THE STATE IS MAINLY DUE TO LIGHTNING
STRIKES. GIVEN THE STATE OF FUELS AND DRIER AIR, LIGHTNING
IGNITING FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM UNTIL THERE IS MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THESE TROUBLE AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 100 62 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 98 51 99 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 59 96 59 95 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 58 94 56 96 / 0 10 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 55 91 / 10 20 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 59 94 57 95 / 10 10 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 61 89 58 91 / 20 50 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 65 90 63 91 / 10 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 60 86 58 87 / 20 50 10 30
RESERVE......................... 59 93 57 95 / 30 60 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 62 97 61 98 / 30 60 20 70
CHAMA........................... 54 91 52 91 / 0 5 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 91 62 92 / 5 20 5 20
PECOS........................... 58 93 58 91 / 5 10 10 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 91 57 91 / 10 5 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 83 48 81 / 10 10 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 86 43 85 / 10 20 10 50
TAOS............................ 56 95 55 94 / 5 5 5 20
MORA............................ 53 89 53 89 / 10 20 10 50
ESPANOLA........................ 62 99 61 99 / 5 5 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 63 93 62 92 / 5 5 5 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 95 60 95 / 5 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 99 68 99 / 0 0 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 99 66 98 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 101 65 101 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 66 101 64 100 / 5 5 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 101 66 101 / 0 0 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 100 63 99 / 0 0 5 10
CORRALES........................ 69 102 67 101 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 101 64 100 / 5 0 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 98 65 97 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 101 67 100 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 71 101 68 102 / 5 20 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 95 60 93 / 0 5 5 40
TIJERAS......................... 64 95 62 93 / 0 5 5 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 95 58 94 / 0 10 10 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 97 55 95 / 5 10 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 91 59 90 / 10 20 20 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 94 59 93 / 5 30 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 91 59 91 / 10 40 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 65 93 / 30 40 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 61 86 59 86 / 20 50 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 88 57 88 / 30 20 10 30
RATON........................... 54 92 54 93 / 40 20 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 95 55 95 / 30 10 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 91 55 91 / 20 30 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 95 65 96 / 40 5 20 20
ROY............................. 60 91 61 92 / 30 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 99 67 100 / 20 5 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 95 64 95 / 20 20 30 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 100 67 100 / 20 0 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 68 98 67 98 / 0 0 10 5
PORTALES........................ 69 98 69 99 / 0 0 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 97 69 98 / 10 0 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 66 95 65 95 / 10 10 10 5
ELK............................. 62 93 61 93 / 5 20 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-205-207-219-
221.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ201-207-217-
219.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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