391
FXUS65 KABQ 031835
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1134 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
- OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH MODEST TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NM.
- A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE THRU SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY,
ALBEIT WITH SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN TO PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING PATTERN DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
ROCKY MTS WILL BRING A MODEST COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH AND
WESTWARD THRU EASTERN NM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT HEADING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE TX BORDER FROM CLAYTON TO CLOVIS.
MEANWHILE, THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BRINGING A MODEST EAST CANYON WIND TO
EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE AND DOWN TO CARRIZOZO. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WILL
BATTLE A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND AT SANTA FE, ALLOWING FOR ERRATIC
WIND DIRECTIONS THERE. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THE COLD FRONT, FAVORING ALONG LIGHT FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NM LATE TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER 5F TO 10F MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. WINDS TAPER OFF THRU THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE REX-BLOCK PATTERN CURRENTLY PRESENT WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE
CA AND BAJA COASTS WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE PORTION
SLIDING EASTWARD AND FLATTENING OVER NM. A GENERAL WARMING TREND
WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE H5 LOW
PORTION OF THE ORIGINAL REX-BLOCK PATTERN WILL LAG BEHIND LOOKING TO
CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOTABLE INCONSISTENCIES B/W MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN REMAIN WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW, IN TURN KEEPING LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE INTO THE
STATE. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL TAKE THE FAVORED MORE PROGRESSIVE
TRACK WITH THE H5 LOW BRINGING THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR PREVAILS ALL AREAS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REACH KFMN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING IN
THE WAKE OF A MODEST COLD FRONT PUSHING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS REACHING 15 TO 20KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN EACH OF THESE AREAS AND TIMES. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
MODEST EAST CANYON WIND INTO KABQ TONIGHT AS WELL, WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRYING TO REACH KSAF. BUT THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND WILL BE GOING UP AGAINST THE NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND, SO WIND
DIRECTIONS AT KSAF WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD BE ERRATIC AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME AREAS
TODAY WHERE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS SETUP. OTHERWISE,
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT
WINDS ARE THE RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WHEN HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 55 18 59 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 50 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 18 55 16 59 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 25 52 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 18 54 17 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 23 55 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 26 49 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 63 20 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 68 23 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 48 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 47 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 21 48 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 46 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 39 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 43 11 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 49 16 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 18 48 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 21 55 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 26 49 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 54 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 57 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 57 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 25 57 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 29 57 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 57 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 52 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 56 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 59 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 48 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 29 50 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 50 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 51 18 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 45 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 50 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 55 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 47 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 20 43 21 58 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 47 19 60 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 50 18 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 48 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 28 49 27 65 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 23 49 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 57 23 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 27 52 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 56 25 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 54 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 29 57 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 55 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 55 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 52 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 26 52 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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