538
FXUS65 KABQ 230003 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 551 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS TODAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PULLED-UP STATIONARY ALONG A RATON TO
LAS VEGAS TO NEAR SANTA ROSA TO NEAR PORTALES LINE. THE FRONT
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MODELED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND AROUND SUNSET, EXPECT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CO ACROSS COLFAX
AND UNION COUNTY BETWEEN 03-06Z PER THE LATEST CAMS. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST OVER NIGHT AND RESULT IN A GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RGV BETWEEN SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE AND LOS
LUNAS, BUT WITH SPEEDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER WESTERN NM SATURDAY, BRINGING SOME
ADDITIONAL WARMING. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM ON SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION THAT WILL HAVE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF GOING SEVERE NEAR THE TX/OK BORDERS WHERE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. THE GREATER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM UNDER STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT. ALL 12Z MODELS SHOW STORMS FOLLOWING A NORMAL DIURNAL
DOWNTREND SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL PEAK AT AROUND 585DAM AT 500MB OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR ISOLATED
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY, BUT WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL
GIVEN A LACK OF SHEAR. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NM ON MONDAY
AND GIVE WAS TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING FROM OVER SOCAL. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE SOLID RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FORECASTING A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING (>0.10") RAIN EVENT, WITH MODERATE
PROBABILITIES (40-60%) FOR A SOAKING (>0.25") RAIN. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM AS THE UPPER
LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AZ. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
AND SOUTHERN CO. THE HIGHEST POPS FOR CENTRAL NM WILL BE THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD, WHEN PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REACH UP TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MON/TUE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE
DEPARTING TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO STEER A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE STATE THU/FRI, ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING
EASTWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL NM BY AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING, WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST NM THROUGH LATE
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COVERAGE OF CELLS OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD DECREASE TO ISOLATED AND WIDELY SCATTERED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM UNTIL 9 PM, OR SO. LATE TONIGHT
UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO,
SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FROM
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND ALSO OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN TURN SEVERE BY PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY,
BUT THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPOTTY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH GRADUAL DRYING GOING INTO SATURDAY
LEADING TO LOWER STORM COVERAGE AND A SMALLER WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT. A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL MON/TUE. WARMING/DRYING IS FORECAST
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT FUELS MAY NOT BE RECEPTIVE
TO RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE GIVEN A PRECEDING WETTING EVENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 77 38 82 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 77 44 80 / 0 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 38 80 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 78 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 80 42 83 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 44 78 45 81 / 5 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 50 78 52 82 / 5 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 41 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 86 44 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 72 37 76 / 5 5 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 75 53 79 / 5 20 0 10
PECOS........................... 43 75 44 80 / 5 10 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 72 42 76 / 10 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 62 35 67 / 20 20 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 67 30 72 / 20 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 42 76 41 81 / 10 10 0 0
MORA............................ 42 70 43 76 / 20 30 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 49 80 49 85 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 76 49 81 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 79 48 84 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 82 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 85 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 83 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 86 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 84 55 88 / 0 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 49 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 84 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 81 56 85 / 0 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 83 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 88 57 92 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 77 52 81 / 0 5 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 51 79 52 83 / 0 5 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 79 49 83 / 0 5 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 80 42 84 / 0 10 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 75 47 79 / 0 10 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 79 48 83 / 0 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 79 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 81 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 73 51 77 / 0 5 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 40 68 42 76 / 70 50 20 20
RATON........................... 42 73 42 81 / 60 40 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 43 74 43 82 / 60 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 72 44 78 / 10 30 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 46 72 49 83 / 70 30 20 20
ROY............................. 45 72 47 81 / 40 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 51 81 51 90 / 20 10 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 80 50 87 / 10 10 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 81 53 91 / 40 10 20 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 82 52 88 / 20 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 51 83 53 89 / 10 10 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 84 52 90 / 10 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 89 57 92 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 81 51 86 / 0 10 0 10
ELK............................. 49 80 49 83 / 0 10 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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