851
FXUS65 KABQ 272337 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LENGTHY PERIODS OF RAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL TO
ELEVATE THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH RECENT FLOODING, URBAN DRAINAGES, LOW-LYING AREAS, AND
AROUND BURN SCARS.
- RIVER FLOODING FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
- SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
LARGE TREES WITH SATURATED SOILS MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AS RICH MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION ON A 85-95KT UPPER
LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE 00Z NAEFS SHOWS +3.8 STDEV PWATS
SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE POLO SQUEEZES AHEAD OF A 565DM H5 LOW ALONG THE CA COAST.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF RAIN TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST NM LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FORM NEAR THE CONT DIVIDE. CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FORCING A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS EASTWARD INTO THE RGV BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLOOD WATCH START TIME HAS BEEN DELAYED
TIL NOON MONDAY SINCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
WITH DECREASING SURFACE PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NM (WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 35MPH). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM STORMS WITH LARGE AREAS
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT MONDAY WITHIN NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND WESTERN NM. EASTERN NM WILL SEE LESS WIDESPREAD STORMS THRU
MONDAY NIGHT BUT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE. THE
24-HR HREF LPMM QPF IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS >2".
THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR FLOODING
GIVEN THE RECENT RECORD RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
LARGE AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY AS THE H5 LOW SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM POLO SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NM.
12Z MODELS ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS THE
GREATEST ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE STORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A 55% CHANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN 25KM OF ANY POINT ACROSS EASTERN NM. RIVER
FLOODING MAY BEGIN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
48-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3" EXPECTED BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL COME ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT
RECORD RAINFALL.
AN ATYPICAL WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION WITH TROPICAL REMNANTS
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. MOS GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT PATCHY SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE. THE
12Z NAM ACTUALLY PULLS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER FROM POLO
NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NM ACROSS THE ABQ METRO AREA INTO
NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY WITH 700MB WINDS NEAR 50KT. THE SURFACE LOW
CROSSES NEAR THE ABQ METRO WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 989MB. THIS MAY
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WHICH HAS
POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREES IN SATURATED SOILS. THE 12Z RRFS INDICATES
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH NEAR THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT BUT WARRANTS
SOME ATTENTION.
BY WEDNESDAY, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITH REGARD
TO HOW THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. THE 12Z EC AND CANADIAN
ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER LOW PROGRESSION WHILE THE NAM AND
GFS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE. EITHER WAY, IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE RAIN
LINGERING OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY KEEPS PRECIP LINGERING OVER NORTHEAST
NM INTO THURSDAY. LOCALLY GREATER THAN 5" OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NM. FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE MOST SEVERE IN AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS, RECENT
HEAVY RAIN FROM LAST WEEK, AND AROUND BURN SCARS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ENTERING INTO
NORTHWEST NM AROUND SUNRISE WITH AN OVERALL MOTION OF 20 TO 30
KTS. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST NM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST INTO
CENTRAL NM COME THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM COME
THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LONG PERIODS OF RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3" WITH LOCALLY >5" POSSIBLE. SATURATED
SOILS ACROSS THE REGION WILL ELEVATE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 64 54 65 / 50 80 90 80
DULCE........................... 46 61 44 61 / 40 90 90 90
CUBA............................ 52 63 50 58 / 20 90 90 100
GALLUP.......................... 51 65 48 60 / 40 80 90 90
EL MORRO........................ 50 66 47 58 / 10 90 90 90
GRANTS.......................... 53 69 50 60 / 10 90 90 100
QUEMADO......................... 53 72 52 61 / 10 70 90 100
MAGDALENA....................... 57 72 55 60 / 5 70 90 90
DATIL........................... 53 69 52 59 / 5 70 90 100
RESERVE......................... 54 79 54 65 / 10 70 90 100
GLENWOOD........................ 60 83 58 70 / 10 70 90 100
CHAMA........................... 47 57 46 55 / 50 90 90 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 66 52 57 / 10 60 90 100
PECOS........................... 52 71 52 60 / 5 50 90 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 64 49 58 / 10 70 90 100
RED RIVER....................... 40 61 41 51 / 10 70 90 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 62 38 55 / 5 60 90 100
TAOS............................ 48 66 48 59 / 10 70 90 100
MORA............................ 50 68 50 59 / 0 40 80 90
ESPANOLA........................ 55 73 54 65 / 10 60 90 100
SANTA FE........................ 57 70 54 59 / 5 60 90 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 71 53 61 / 5 60 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 75 57 62 / 5 60 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 76 57 64 / 5 60 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 78 57 65 / 5 60 90 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 76 59 63 / 5 70 90 90
BELEN........................... 58 79 57 65 / 5 60 90 90
BERNALILLO...................... 59 77 58 65 / 5 70 90 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 78 55 65 / 5 60 90 90
CORRALES........................ 59 77 58 65 / 5 70 90 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 78 57 65 / 5 60 90 90
PLACITAS........................ 59 72 57 61 / 5 60 90 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 76 58 64 / 5 70 90 90
SOCORRO......................... 62 82 60 68 / 5 60 90 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 69 52 57 / 0 60 90 90
TIJERAS......................... 55 72 53 60 / 0 50 90 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 74 52 61 / 0 40 90 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 76 51 63 / 0 40 90 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 74 53 60 / 0 30 90 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 75 53 61 / 0 30 90 100
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 75 54 61 / 0 30 90 100
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 79 59 67 / 0 30 90 90
RUIDOSO......................... 54 76 55 64 / 0 30 90 90
CAPULIN......................... 53 70 53 60 / 0 5 80 100
RATON........................... 52 73 52 62 / 0 20 80 100
SPRINGER........................ 51 75 54 64 / 0 10 80 90
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 71 53 60 / 5 20 90 90
CLAYTON......................... 57 79 59 67 / 0 0 80 90
ROY............................. 56 76 56 64 / 0 0 80 90
CONCHAS......................... 59 85 62 72 / 0 0 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 81 61 68 / 0 0 90 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 86 63 74 / 0 0 80 90
CLOVIS.......................... 59 86 63 75 / 0 0 80 90
PORTALES........................ 60 87 64 77 / 0 0 80 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 85 63 73 / 0 0 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 58 86 63 79 / 0 0 80 90
PICACHO......................... 58 83 60 74 / 0 10 90 90
ELK............................. 56 83 58 73 / 0 20 90 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71
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