863
FXUS65 KABQ 231124 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE
HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE SWING DANCE CONTINUES BETWEEN WHAT'S LEFT OF THE UPPER LOW AND
MONSOON HIGH TONIGHT WITH THE LOW OPENING TO A WEAK AND DEFORMED
FEATURE OVER WESTERN CO AND WY. THE MONSOON HIGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN TX WILL SLIDE WESTWARD OVER EASTERN NM TODAY. IN TERMS OF
TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MOST CI
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE
SCATTERED STORM CELLS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. LOWERING PWS TO ~1.00", LESS FORCING, AND THE ENCROACHING
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE HIGH WILL ACT TO LOWER THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING TODAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT
BE NON-EXISTENT GIVEN ALREADY RAIN SOAKED GROUND CONDITIONS OVER
WESTERN NM. A STRONG STORM HITTING THE WRONG PLACE COULD STILL CAUSE
OR EXACERBATE ALREADY EXISTING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY. HEAT BUILDS
BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER EASTERN NM WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S. PREVAILING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING WAA AND DOWNSLOPING INTO
THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY AT TUCUMCARI. HAVE BUMPED FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES THERE A NUDGE TO REACH THE 105F THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY.
AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE CO FRONT RANGE WILL PUSH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH THE MONSOON HIGH SLIDING FURTHER OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM,
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROBUST ROUND OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. THESE STORMS
WILL FAVOR A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM FRIDAY EVENING. SLOWER MOVING SCATTERED STORMS
WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT WITH SHORT LIFESPANS BENEATH THE HIGH AND
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
MOVING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S HOWEVER WILL HAVE A FAIR CHANCE OF
PUSHING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE PUSHED WESTWARD WILL HELP INCREASE AFTERNOON
STORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM SATURDAY
AND THE WEEKEND AS THE MONSOON HIGH NUDGES A BIT NORTHWARD MORE
SQUARELY OVER THE CO SAN JUANS. ALL OF THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW
FAR THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MOVING OFF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO'S FRIDAY EVENING ADVANCES THROUGH CENTRAL, SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
THEREAFTER, THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN SEES LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
MONSOON HIGH FAVORING RESIDENCE OVER NM AND CO. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL SEE LITTLE REPLENISHMENT, INSTEAD BEING RECYCLED VIA DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORM PROCESSES. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS,
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM ANY NEARBY OR PASSING STORM. ALL THE WHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S/80S IN THE MOUNTAINS, TO 90S TO LOW 100S IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THERE IS SOME ISOLATED FOG POTENTIAL OVER FAR WESTERN NM PREDAWN
THIS MORNING, BUT SLOW THE SLOW TO CLEAR BROKEN CEILINGS WILL
HELP LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL. THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE AT KFMN OR
KGUP. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NM TODAY, LIMITING CONVECTION TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CONDITIONS CLEAR AND CALM
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEES A DOWNTICK TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS MOVING SW TO NE. DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SLOW MOVING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING OVER ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
THE RULE EACH DAY THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. REMNANT AND
LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CONSISTENT GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 91 66 98 67 / 10 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 86 54 93 54 / 30 20 20 20
CUBA............................ 86 60 90 61 / 30 20 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 87 60 92 60 / 10 10 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 84 59 87 59 / 20 10 40 20
GRANTS.......................... 88 60 92 62 / 20 20 30 10
QUEMADO......................... 85 60 89 61 / 40 20 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 88 66 90 67 / 30 10 40 30
DATIL........................... 84 61 87 62 / 30 20 40 30
RESERVE......................... 91 60 94 61 / 20 10 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 96 64 99 65 / 20 10 10 10
CHAMA........................... 79 52 84 53 / 50 20 50 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 65 87 65 / 40 20 50 30
PECOS........................... 88 60 90 60 / 20 10 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 57 86 58 / 50 30 50 20
RED RIVER....................... 74 49 76 51 / 40 30 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 48 81 48 / 40 20 80 20
TAOS............................ 87 57 89 57 / 40 20 40 20
MORA............................ 86 57 85 57 / 30 20 70 20
ESPANOLA........................ 92 65 95 66 / 40 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 88 64 90 65 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 63 93 63 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 70 96 70 / 10 10 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 71 97 71 / 20 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 69 98 69 / 20 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 70 97 70 / 20 20 5 20
BELEN........................... 97 69 99 69 / 20 20 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 96 69 98 70 / 20 20 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 67 98 67 / 20 20 5 20
CORRALES........................ 96 69 98 70 / 20 20 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 68 98 68 / 10 20 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 92 67 94 69 / 20 10 5 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 69 97 70 / 20 20 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 99 72 101 74 / 10 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 64 90 64 / 10 10 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 89 65 92 64 / 10 10 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 62 92 62 / 10 10 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 59 94 59 / 10 10 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 61 89 60 / 10 10 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 62 93 61 / 5 5 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 63 91 63 / 5 5 30 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 70 95 69 / 5 0 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 87 64 89 63 / 20 5 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 89 58 86 58 / 20 20 60 50
RATON........................... 93 59 91 57 / 30 20 70 30
SPRINGER........................ 95 60 93 59 / 30 20 60 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 60 88 59 / 20 10 60 30
CLAYTON......................... 100 67 95 66 / 10 50 20 20
ROY............................. 94 64 91 63 / 10 20 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 102 69 100 68 / 5 10 40 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 98 68 97 66 / 5 10 40 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 73 101 70 / 0 10 40 50
CLOVIS.......................... 102 71 100 69 / 0 0 40 50
PORTALES........................ 102 72 103 68 / 0 5 20 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 72 101 69 / 0 5 40 50
ROSWELL......................... 104 74 105 73 / 0 0 10 30
PICACHO......................... 97 69 98 69 / 5 0 20 30
ELK............................. 93 65 95 66 / 5 0 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ234.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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