994
FXUS65 KABQ 250538 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1032 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
- STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CHAVES COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CREATE MINOR
HEAT RISK WEDNESDAY AND TO A GREATER EXTENT THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HOLDING STRONG JUST OFF THE BAJA CA
COAST, AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK TO THE NORTH OF NM, AND UNSEASONABLY
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC MIXING, BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE EACH DAY. ONE AREA THAT WILL
PROBABLY FEEL WEAKER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SETUP AND DECREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEST OF THERE, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO VAUGHN AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS FORT SUMNER.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY TO THE ROSWELL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
AROUND 9-23 F ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AREAS, AND MULTIPLE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM WILL
CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW TO AROUND 12 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY'S READINGS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 21 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES. A
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 79 DEGREES IS FORECAST IN ALBUQUERQUE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW A NEARLY 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT ALBUQUERQUE
WILL REACH 80 DEGREES ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE OLD
RECORD FOR THE FIRST 80+ DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON BY MORE THAN A
WEEK IF THE SUNPORT ACTUALLY HITS 80 DEGREES.
EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE
WESTERN US STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, WHILE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
PROBABLY BECOME BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. GUSTS
NEAR 45KT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHILE GUSTS NEAR 35KT
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ABQ SUNPORT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM, INCLUDING KROW, AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NM THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MST TUE FEB 24 2026
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MAINLY TO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS
ARE EXPECTED UNDER A 995 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FARTHER
NORTH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. IF THIS SURFACE LOW SETS UP A COUNTY
OR TWO FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
PROJECTING FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PROBABLY EXPERIENCE GREATER COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE NIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A
POTENTIAL LAST MINUTE RED FLAG WARNING.
OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY
AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE AVERAGE CONTINUE. WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 30 62 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 35 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 69 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 65 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 34 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 36 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 40 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 37 77 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 41 80 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 57 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 64 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 40 66 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 61 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 52 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 58 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 31 65 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 40 65 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 37 72 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 41 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 70 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 72 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 75 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 75 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 40 78 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 74 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 77 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 75 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 40 78 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 41 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 71 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 68 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 37 70 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 73 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 37 73 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 72 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 78 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 75 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 46 83 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 76 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 83 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 83 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 84 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 82 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 88 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 79 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 51 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ214-223-233-
237.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...34
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