846
FXUS65 KABQ 262012
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
112 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND AS LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND
MID 80S.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGIN TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
RATHER PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
A HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, ALLOWING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. THUS, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 30-35MPH. WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
(INCLUDING CLINES CORNERS) MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 45MPH. OTHERWISE, NEAR
RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE STATEWIDE, WITH
MID 70S TO LOW 80S LIKELY IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGES
MOVING INTO FRIDAY IN TERMS OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SAME PLACES AS TODAY, THOUGH
ARE FAVORED TO NOT BE AS STRONG. THIS IS DUE TO THE CORE OF 700MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, MISSING
THE ALIGNMENT WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO BE BROKEN FRIDAY, AS TEMPS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MOST LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY AND WARM WITH THE OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUING. THE HIGH PRESSURE MENTIONED IN THE
SHORT TERM REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO, CONTINUING A
PATTERN OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THUS WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY, AND TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABQ
SUNPORT HAS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE TO HIT 80F ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD
BEAT THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL 80F DAY IN ABQ BY OVER A WEEK. SEVERAL
OTHER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE THREATENED AND/OR
BROKEN.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR A PATTERN CHANGE. FIRSTLY, A BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERS NM IN THE
MONDAY TIMEFRAME, THOUGH THE TRUE TIME OF THIS FRONT IS STILL UP FOR
DEBATE, AS THE GFS AND AI-GFS BRING IT IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHILE
THE EURO AND CANADIAN BRING IT IN LATER MONDAY, AS WELL AS BEING
WEAKER. NONETHELESS, "COOLER" TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM (HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S). MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLATED TO ENTER NM IN THE TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON THIS BEING A FASTER, MORE OPEN
SHORTWAVE AS COMPARED TO A DEEPER, CLOSED LOW. THIS PATH RESULTS IN
SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIPITATION OVERALL FOR THE STATE, HOWEVER FAIRLY
GOOD POPS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AT AROUND 40-50%.
ANY SORT OF APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOST LIKELY
SIT AT AND ABOVE 8,500-9,000FT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER IN THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITH LOW BUT NOTICABLE SBCAPE
VALUES BEING DEPICTED. A SECOND POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CURRENT
FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS SIT ABOVE 10,000FT, WHICH ARE NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY MARCH. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ANY STRONGER WINDS
TO MIX DOWN. HOWEVER, AS NOTED BEFORE WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES,
THAT REMAINS TRUE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER 700MB
WINDS COINCIDES WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS MOST
OF NEW MEXICO, WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY BETWEEN 25-30KTS ACROSS
CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING KABQ, KAEG, NEAR KCQC AND UP TO KFMN. 15-25KT
GUSTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF IF/WHEN THE NORTHWEST WINDS REACH KROW.
THE MOST LIKELY TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE TAF,
BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS. HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAK INTO NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM MST THU FEB 26 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM TODAY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PEAKING AROUND 30-35MPH
IN GUSTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO
MID TEENS. HUMIDITY VALUES DROP LOWER ON FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEENS TO HIGH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES, EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST NM
WHICH WILL SIT IN THE HIGH TEENS TO LOW 20S. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY
ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE WILL MOST LIKELY BE GUSTS UP TO 30MPH, MAINLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS. ELEVATED CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FAVORED TO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO NORTHERN NM AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 33 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 24 63 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 32 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 70 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 34 67 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 29 71 31 74 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 70 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 36 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 36 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 82 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 57 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 64 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 60 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 27 52 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 25 64 28 66 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 32 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 31 71 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 66 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 69 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 35 75 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 38 75 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 34 75 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 38 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 75 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 75 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 78 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 67 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 40 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 71 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 70 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 74 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 71 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 26 73 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 31 72 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 72 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 32 72 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 78 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 77 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 79 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 80 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 84 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 82 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 42 83 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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