416
FXUS65 KABQ 100016 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 545 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON AREA BURN
SCARS EACH DAY FROM DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM, MAINLY IN UNION COUNTY.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE 595DM H5 HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION OVER AND JUST
OFFSHORE SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THUS A SIMILAR SETUP
FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY'S OBSERVATIONS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN, SOUTH-
CENTRAL, AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WILL BE THE RULE. STORMS MOVING
E/SE OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S WILL HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF
BECOMING STRONG/SEVERE, TAPPING INTO HIGHER BULK SHEAR CAPABLE OF
SOME SINGLE-CELLULAR ORGANIZATION EARLY ON MOSTLY OVER COLFAX AND
UNION COUNTIES. SOME OF THESE CELLS WILL LOOK TO CONGEAL OVER EAST-
CENTRAL NM BY THE I-40 CORRIDOR LATE DAY AND EVENING, CONTINUING TO
THEIR DEMISE SOMEWHERE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM GENERALLY BETWEEN
CLOVIS, FORT SUMNER, AND ROSWELL LATE THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING
STORMS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR RUIDOSO WILL HAVE SOME
CHANCE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. STORMS OVER THE GILA NF AND
FURTHER UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY IN NATURE
THREATENING STRONG ERRATIC GUSTS AND DRY LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, EVEN
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AT TIMES AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN SOME SPOTS OF CATRON AND
SOCORRO COUNTIES THE PAST FEW DAYS.
DRIER WESTERLIES WILL PUSH FURTHER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
NM TODAY, AND FURTHERMORE FRIDAY AS THE H5 REMAINS FAIRLY FLAT. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MOST PART
OVER THE PORTION OF THE STATE. AREAS OF THE UPPER TO MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE FROM TAOS TO LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE TO ABQ, WILL BE IN THAT
TRANSITION ZONE WHERE SOME MEAGER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW SPITS OF RAIN AND MOSTLY ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 3P - 8P. HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THERE WHERE
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU (FARMINGTON) TODAY,
AND WILL BE ISSUED AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S ELSEWHERE
IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM ABQ TO SOCORRO WILL
WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF HEAT ADVISORIES THERE AS WELL WHERE MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST TO EXIST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATURDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE H5 COALESCING AND
GATHERING STRENGTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S FOR
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE
SAME AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MTS, AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS IN THE GILA
NF. STORMS MOVING OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S WILL AGAIN DRIFT S/SE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LESS BULK SHEAR TO WORK WITH IN ORDER
TO ORGANIZE. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE STRENGTHS COULD STILL ALLOW FOR A
SHORT-DURATION PULSE SEVERE HERE AND THERE. STORMS NEAR THE RUIDOSO
AREA WILL BE SLOWER MOVERS, FAVORING A S/SW DIRECTION, CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE H5 HIGH BUILDS TO 599-600DM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT TOURS WY
AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH IT'S ASSOCIATED H5 HEIGHTS
REACHING NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEIGHTS IN THE PORTION OF THE CONUS.
THANKFULLY FOR NEW MEXICO, THIS MEANS LOWERING PRESSURE HEIGHTS
LOCALLY AND AN INFLUX OF HEIGHTENED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
VIA TX. HIGHS FALL BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S MOST AREAS. WHILE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE INCREASES, HIGHLIGHTED BY AN UPTICK IN PWATS TO
NEAR 1.00" EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME DOES NOT FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK. WITH THE H5 TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST, SCATTERED STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL FAVOR A
WESTWARD MOTION LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. RAIN EFFICIENCY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE,
WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR ANY VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT THE LINE BREAKING UP INTO MORE
ISOLATED CELLS OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THE LATE EVENING. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED CELLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING MID EVENING; SOME
OF WHICH WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN REACHING THE
SURFACE. ON FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES, AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, MODELS
DEPICT MORE ISOLATED CELLS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG NM'S EASTERN
BORDER. SOME STORMS WILL PROBABLY TURN SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL SOAR A FEW TO AROUND 11 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES, MAKING DENSITY ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND
POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES OVER WESTERN NM, COUPLED WITH INTENSE HEAT.
THE HEAT SUBSIDES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY ARRIVING
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS, WITH CELLS OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S MOVING S/SE. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE MORE S/SW SATURDAY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE MAIN DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES OVER WY AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 99 61 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 94 48 98 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 59 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 58 95 55 96 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 91 58 93 / 5 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 58 95 57 96 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 92 60 93 / 5 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 65 93 66 92 / 10 20 10 0
DATIL........................... 61 90 62 89 / 10 10 5 5
RESERVE......................... 55 96 56 97 / 10 40 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 59 99 60 101 / 20 40 10 40
CHAMA........................... 49 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 58 92 59 90 / 0 10 10 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 49 79 48 79 / 0 5 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 83 37 83 / 0 5 5 50
TAOS............................ 53 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 54 87 55 86 / 0 20 20 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 64 93 65 92 / 5 5 5 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 96 62 95 / 5 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 98 71 99 / 5 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 100 67 99 / 5 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 102 67 102 / 5 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 100 69 100 / 5 0 5 0
BELEN........................... 65 102 66 101 / 10 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 67 101 68 101 / 5 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 102 65 101 / 5 0 5 10
CORRALES........................ 67 101 68 102 / 5 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 102 66 101 / 5 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 68 98 69 97 / 5 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 100 68 101 / 5 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 71 103 72 103 / 10 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 93 64 93 / 5 10 10 40
TIJERAS......................... 63 95 64 94 / 5 5 10 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 96 60 94 / 5 5 5 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 97 57 95 / 5 5 5 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 91 58 89 / 10 10 10 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 95 61 94 / 10 10 5 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 94 63 92 / 20 10 10 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 96 68 95 / 20 10 10 50
RUIDOSO......................... 63 86 62 86 / 20 40 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 53 85 53 86 / 20 50 40 50
RATON........................... 53 91 53 90 / 10 40 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 55 93 55 92 / 5 30 30 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 90 57 88 / 5 20 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 61 92 61 93 / 30 50 50 20
ROY............................. 59 90 59 89 / 10 20 40 40
CONCHAS......................... 66 100 65 98 / 20 20 40 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 98 64 93 / 20 5 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 101 67 98 / 30 5 50 10
CLOVIS.......................... 68 98 67 97 / 20 0 30 5
PORTALES........................ 70 99 69 98 / 20 0 30 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 100 69 97 / 20 0 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 72 103 72 99 / 20 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 66 96 66 94 / 20 20 10 5
ELK............................. 64 92 63 92 / 10 40 10 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ201-219-220.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...44
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