937
FXUS65 KABQ 082036
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
236 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
OVERALL STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
LOWERING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PWATS RANGING BETWEEN 0.80-1.20
INCHES. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
ALONG A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. SLOWER STORM MOTIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, WITH THE
GREATEST CONCERN NEAR AND AROUND THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS.
THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS BACK WEST, CENTERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST, BY
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARMING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT
SPREADS INTO NORTHWESTERN NM AND SUPPRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
THERE. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE, HOWEVER, ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS
POTENTIALLY INITIATING ADDITIONAL CELLS ACROSS NEARBY LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS, WHERE ANOTHER, MORE POTENT,
BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION, PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH
THE AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC, THE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM OR TWO, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ESTABLISHED OVER AZ ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ALLOWING THE DRIER AIR TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NM. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
STARK MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING STABILITY, WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND DRIER MID-
LEVELS WILL CAUSE QUITE THE DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE
GILA AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THE
SETTLING OF THE RIDGE, TRENDING UPWARDS (C'MON NOW IT'S
SEPTEMBER--WE SHOULD BE TRENDING DOWNWARDS!), WITH PORTIONS OF THE
CWA POTENTIALLY REACHING 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.
THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EAST AND A
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THE TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST WHILE THE MINIMAL MOISTURE
PLUME REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES TO PERSIST, WITH TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EASE
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STORMS WILL MOVE EAST
AND INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE EVENING AND ARE
GENERALLY NOT FORECAST TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OR SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN NM THE REST OF
TODAY, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOWER
MOVING AND CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. SIMILAR AREAS WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY. ONE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE
NORTHEASTERN NM AS A BACKDOOR FRONT PROPAGATES SOUTH AND EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM OR TWO, WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING HAIL AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. WIND CONCERNS ALSO EXIST WITH ANY LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN
LOWER STORM COVERAGE, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW AS 10-20% DURING
THE AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NM.
A WEAK PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 94 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 91 44 90 / 5 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 57 89 54 88 / 5 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 90 49 90 / 10 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 84 52 86 / 40 40 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 47 89 / 20 20 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 57 85 56 85 / 30 60 50 10
MAGDALENA....................... 61 86 60 85 / 50 50 40 20
DATIL........................... 57 81 56 82 / 50 60 50 20
RESERVE......................... 57 90 57 89 / 40 60 60 30
GLENWOOD........................ 61 95 61 95 / 40 50 60 40
CHAMA........................... 52 85 49 84 / 10 5 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 85 60 86 / 20 20 10 5
PECOS........................... 57 87 55 87 / 20 30 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 85 52 84 / 30 20 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 48 75 46 74 / 50 50 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 80 40 80 / 40 60 20 10
TAOS............................ 52 88 50 88 / 20 20 10 5
MORA............................ 55 84 52 82 / 40 40 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 63 93 59 93 / 20 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 57 89 57 87 / 20 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 91 57 90 / 10 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 94 65 94 / 30 10 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 95 65 94 / 20 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 97 65 96 / 20 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 95 66 95 / 20 10 10 0
BELEN........................... 66 96 63 95 / 10 10 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 66 96 65 96 / 20 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 96 63 96 / 10 10 20 5
CORRALES........................ 65 97 65 97 / 20 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 96 62 95 / 10 10 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 63 93 64 92 / 20 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 96 66 96 / 20 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 96 63 96 / 10 20 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 88 59 88 / 40 20 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 64 89 61 89 / 40 20 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 89 57 89 / 40 20 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 91 55 90 / 40 20 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 86 55 86 / 40 30 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 88 57 87 / 40 40 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 87 58 86 / 40 50 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 90 64 89 / 30 30 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 58 83 57 83 / 20 50 30 60
CAPULIN......................... 57 81 54 81 / 60 60 50 30
RATON........................... 55 86 53 86 / 30 50 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 56 90 55 87 / 50 50 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 85 52 83 / 40 40 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 65 89 61 86 / 40 40 40 20
ROY............................. 62 89 58 86 / 60 50 50 10
CONCHAS......................... 68 97 65 94 / 30 30 50 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 93 64 92 / 20 30 30 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 97 66 94 / 10 20 40 5
CLOVIS.......................... 67 97 65 92 / 0 10 20 20
PORTALES........................ 69 97 67 93 / 0 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 97 66 95 / 5 20 30 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 99 67 96 / 0 5 10 10
PICACHO......................... 64 93 64 91 / 0 20 40 20
ELK............................. 60 89 60 87 / 10 20 30 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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