859
FXUS65 KABQ 111131 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 433 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
MOSTLY THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL DEVELOP.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL TURN MORE SPOTTY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SATURDAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WAS VERY UNDERWHELMING,
AND PROSPECTS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE A
FEW NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP. A COLD CORE
LOW HAS SCOOPED UP THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, AND IS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY INLAND INTO SOUTHERN CA. WHILE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS GETTING ADVECTED INTO THAT REGION, IT IS MUCH MORE
TEMPERED INTO NM WITH PWATS PROJECTED TO STAY IN A 0.7 TO 1.0 RANGE.
THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY, STEERING
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 45
MPH. THIS WILL REDUCE RESIDENCE TIME AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. WHILE CLOUD COVER WAS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL ON
SATURDAY, A CLEARING IN THE HIGH LEVELS COULD OFFER A BIT MORE
INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK
AND GENERALLY MODELED TO BE UNREMARKABLE (BETWEEN 100-500 J/KG OF
SURFACE-BASED CAPE WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS OF 500-600 J/KG
NEAR THE DIVIDE). LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE INCREASING TOO, BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MANY UPDRAFTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND LONG
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ANY SEVERE CELLS DESPITE AMPLE SPEED SHEAR. ALL
THIS TO SAY, QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE EASIER TO COME BY, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER BACKGROUND
WINDS, AS 700 MB SPEEDS WILL BE RISING TO 25 TO 40 KT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS IN
EASTERN CO. NO WIND ADVISORY IS PLANNED, BUT A FEW SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHILE EASTERN ZONES CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE.
CAMS SHOW THAT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED, BROKEN/DISCONTINUOUS BATCH
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY DWINDLING
MORE AS IT GETS FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS MONDAY. THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL AND ITS COLD CORE LOW USHER
WILL BE RACING TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A NEW LOW SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
STIFF SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT OVER NM WITH ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE
CYCLONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN CO AGAIN, PRODUCING ANOTHER
BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. PWATS WILL START TO DECREASE TO 0.5 TO 0.6
INCH IN MANY ZONES MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE VALUES WILL OF AN INCH OR MORE WILL
HOLD. WITH THE PRIMARY UPSTREAM LOW MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN NV AND
A SOUTHERN VORT LOBE CARVING OUT A TROUGH INTO SOUTHERN CA, THERE
WILL BE SOME MORE LARGE SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING INTO NM, BUT
LOWERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER LIMIT OUR POPS
MONDAY. THIS WILL PUT WINDS AS THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR MONDAY, BUT
WITH 700 MB SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 20 TO 30 KT, THE OVERALL SURFACE
GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS TODAY'S. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A COUPLE DEGREES IN WESTERN ZONES AND GAIN A COUPLE (5
TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) IN EASTERN ONES ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THE SOUTHERN CA TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN NV ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS OVER NM WILL STAY FAIRLY BRISK
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH 700 MB SPEEDS REDUCING TO A 15 TO 30 KT
RANGE WHILE THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW SAGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO IN
A WEAKENED FASHION. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND BROADENED DRY SLOT WILL
PRECEDE THE UPPER LOW, OVERTAKING MOST OF NM THROUGH TUESDAY,
SHRINKING RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES TO JUST SCANT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND PERHAPS ALONG THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH
WEST TX. LOWERING HEIGHTS WOULD REDUCE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY WITH EASTERN ZONES STILL REMAINING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE PRIMARY CORE OF THE POLAR JET WILL
BE WELL NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH
STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
ORIENTATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE JET STREAK INCOMING OFF OF THE
PACIFIC INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FATE OF THE CONUS UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS AND ECMWF HAVE RETAINED SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT
THESE SOLUTIONS VARY DRASTICALLY FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS/GEFS
SOLUTIONS ARE MOSTLY IN FAVOR OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED JET STREAK STRENGTHENING OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
ALBERTA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SCOOPING UP THE LOW OUT AND
KICKING IT OUT EAST NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE ECMWF/EPS SOLUTIONS
ARE MORE PRONE TO KEEP THE LOW CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR JET, CAUSING
IT TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. EITHER OUTCOME
WOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT THE FORMER GFS/GEFS WOULD
LEND TO MORE TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS WHILE THE LATTER
ECMWF/EPS SCENARIOS ARE MUCH DIFFERENT AND WETTER WITH THE UPPER
LOW WEST OF NM ALLOWING REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SIMON TO
RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY, LARGE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WEDNESDAY ONWARD. ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR PWATS ARE RATHER
DRY (0.3 TO 0.5 INCH OVER MOST OF NM) WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE
LATTER AND WET SOLUTIONS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF MIGHT BE
OVERDONE OR OUTLIERS. FOR NOW, 10 TO 30% POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EASTERN ZONES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, REDUCING TO 10 TO 20%
OVER CENTRAL ZONES INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO, ROLLING TOWARD CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THE EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO 45 KT,
VERY BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY. THE
BACKGROUND, OR PREVAILING WINDS OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KT
BEING MORE WIDESPREAD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALIGNING NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE EVENING,
DECREASING AND DYING OFF OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE TODAY AS THE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHTENS AND
A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CO. OCCASIONAL
SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT
FORTUNATELY THESE INCREASED WINDS WILL BE OFFSET WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HELP MOISTEN THINGS
ON LOCALIZED SCALES AS SCATTERED, FAST-MOVING CELLS RACE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NM THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW, GENERALLY AMOUNTING TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING BEFORE FALLING APART IN
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY BRISK ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT GUSTS
SHOULD TEND TO STAY IN A 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, PREVENTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A GREAT
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, BUT AGAIN NO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY FORECAST MODELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 52 70 51 / 40 20 10 30
DULCE........................... 71 42 65 42 / 70 90 30 50
CUBA............................ 71 46 67 45 / 40 30 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 72 45 66 44 / 40 40 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 70 42 66 42 / 20 20 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 75 46 70 45 / 20 5 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 71 46 67 45 / 20 10 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 74 50 72 49 / 20 10 10 0
DATIL........................... 70 46 67 44 / 20 10 20 0
RESERVE......................... 71 49 66 48 / 80 60 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 75 53 69 52 / 80 60 30 10
CHAMA........................... 64 41 59 41 / 80 90 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 50 68 48 / 30 40 10 5
PECOS........................... 73 47 70 46 / 20 50 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 45 66 44 / 20 70 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 39 58 37 / 20 70 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 38 63 35 / 20 40 20 0
TAOS............................ 73 45 68 43 / 20 60 10 10
MORA............................ 72 44 70 43 / 10 30 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 79 50 75 49 / 30 40 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 73 50 70 48 / 30 50 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 50 73 48 / 20 40 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 56 76 54 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 55 77 55 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 56 79 55 / 20 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 56 77 54 / 20 20 5 0
BELEN........................... 82 54 80 54 / 10 10 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 81 55 78 54 / 20 20 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 54 79 54 / 20 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 81 56 78 54 / 20 20 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 55 79 54 / 20 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 78 55 75 53 / 20 20 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 55 77 54 / 20 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 83 56 80 55 / 20 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 73 49 71 48 / 20 20 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 75 51 73 50 / 20 20 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 49 74 48 / 10 20 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 48 76 47 / 10 20 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 51 72 49 / 10 20 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 50 72 49 / 10 20 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 51 72 51 / 10 30 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 58 76 56 / 0 40 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 52 70 52 / 0 40 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 76 51 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 80 48 78 45 / 0 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 82 49 80 47 / 0 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 49 72 48 / 0 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 82 60 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 79 54 78 52 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 87 61 87 59 / 5 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 58 83 57 / 10 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 63 88 60 / 0 10 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 85 61 86 60 / 0 5 0 10
PORTALES........................ 86 62 87 62 / 0 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 61 86 60 / 10 20 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 89 61 90 63 / 0 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 85 57 84 57 / 10 30 5 0
ELK............................. 81 55 80 55 / 0 40 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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