595
FXUS65 KABQ 232035
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK IN SOME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WHEN THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS, AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS WITH LIGHTER RAIN, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A FEW HIGH RES MODELS ARE NOW DEPICTING SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF NM MAY HELP TRIGGER THE
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM. THIS GUSTY AND MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT, WHERE
A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EL PASO
TODAY WILL WEAKEN/FLATTEN OUT SOME AND NUDGE SOUTHWARD A LITTLE
ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. ASIDE FROM INCREASING INSTABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO INCREASE ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY FARTHER SOUTH. INVERTED-V
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT PROFILES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND PWATS THERE ONLY AROUND 0.50-0.80", WILL RESULT IN SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS IN THE MIX WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS GENERALLY
VARYING AROUND 800-1800 J/KG, AND LOCALLY UP TO 2400 J/KG AROUND
GALLUP, WILL ENABLE SOME OF THESE TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO 60 MPH AROUND GALLUP, AND BLOWING DUST
WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL REACHING THE SURFACE. STORMS WILL BE
WETTER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHERE PWATS WILL VARY FROM 0.80-1.00". SOME
STORMS WILL ALSO TURN SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM
ON WEDNESDAY, AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VARIES FROM 25-45 KT AND CAPE
VARIES FROM 1800-3500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT, BUT WITH STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL A FEW TO AS MUCH AS 12
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS, EXCEPT FOR
LITTLE CHANGE LONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ASIDE FROM THE MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT, AND THE
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT, ANOTHER COOLING FACTOR ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE NBM SUGGESTS ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM ALBUQUERQUE
SOUTHWARD, AND ALSO AROUND ROSWELL. HOWEVER, A REVIEW OF MODEL
INPUTS TO THE NBM INDICATES WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY BIAS CORRECTED MODEL OUTPUT. THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL MAKE WEDNESDAY
UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS DAYS THIS WEEK WHEN THE MODEL BIAS DEVELOPED,
SO WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE FORECAST HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY A
LITTLE BELOW THE NBM ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS. TONIGHT'S NIGHT SHIFT WILL RE-EVALUATE
THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY AS THE DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLIES
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WEAKEN THE UPPER HIGH AND
FLATTEN IT OUT FURTHER. PWATS WILL CLIMB SOME ON WEDNESDAY AS
BETTER MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE UNDER THE
RIDGE ALOFT, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE MIX OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE RISK OF GUSTY AND DRY STORMS MAY SPREAD TO
PARTS OF THE EAST AS WELL ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK
ITS WAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST DECREASING STORM
COVERAGE SOME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL THEN FEATURE VERY DRY, BREEZY TO WINDY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
US. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A
RISK OF ADDITIONAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND WESTERN PARTS OF NM. HOWEVER, A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO
STEER BETTER GULF MOISTURE OVER NM'S SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MONDAY ENABLING WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THERE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 12 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL MAKE DENSITY ALTITUDE AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX
TERRAIN. ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC DRY-MICROBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WITH
SOME POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL BLOWING DUST. TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A
20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA
FROM RATON TO CLAYTON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE BY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT AIDED BY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WILL ALSO DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT,
EXCEPT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY. A NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1249 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AFTER HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASE FURTHER IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY, BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
VIRGA SHOWERS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRIER CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FRIDAY, WHEN
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD TO PARTS OF
EASTERN NM AS WELL. AFTER THREE DAYS OF LIGHTNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO MONDAY, AS VERY DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENS OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 94 59 91 / 0 10 40 20
DULCE........................... 47 91 46 87 / 0 10 40 20
CUBA............................ 58 90 55 86 / 0 10 40 50
GALLUP.......................... 56 92 50 88 / 0 20 50 40
EL MORRO........................ 57 91 53 85 / 0 20 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 57 93 52 89 / 0 40 40 60
QUEMADO......................... 58 91 56 87 / 5 20 20 60
MAGDALENA....................... 66 91 62 89 / 0 20 20 60
DATIL........................... 61 89 57 86 / 0 30 10 60
RESERVE......................... 55 98 53 94 / 5 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 61 103 60 99 / 0 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 47 84 46 80 / 0 10 40 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 89 61 85 / 0 10 40 60
PECOS........................... 57 92 55 88 / 0 5 30 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 87 55 82 / 0 10 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 47 79 47 73 / 0 20 50 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 83 43 78 / 0 10 50 30
TAOS............................ 52 90 52 85 / 0 0 40 40
MORA............................ 54 87 52 84 / 0 20 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 59 96 58 91 / 0 5 40 50
SANTA FE........................ 63 92 61 87 / 0 5 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 94 58 90 / 0 5 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 98 67 94 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 101 63 97 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 99 65 95 / 0 0 20 60
BELEN........................... 64 101 62 97 / 0 0 10 50
BERNALILLO...................... 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 100 61 96 / 0 0 10 50
CORRALES........................ 66 100 64 96 / 0 0 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 100 62 96 / 0 0 10 50
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 65 92 / 0 0 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 99 64 95 / 0 0 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 72 103 68 100 / 0 5 10 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 93 61 89 / 0 0 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 64 94 60 90 / 0 0 10 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 95 57 92 / 0 0 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 97 54 93 / 0 0 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 91 55 89 / 0 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 96 57 93 / 0 0 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 95 59 92 / 0 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 99 65 97 / 0 0 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 63 92 61 90 / 0 20 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 84 52 85 / 20 60 30 40
RATON........................... 55 89 52 89 / 20 50 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 89 54 91 / 10 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 89 55 89 / 0 50 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 60 85 60 92 / 20 10 20 40
ROY............................. 59 87 56 91 / 10 40 40 20
CONCHAS......................... 64 95 61 100 / 5 10 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 94 60 96 / 0 10 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 95 63 100 / 5 5 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 67 99 64 100 / 0 10 50 5
PORTALES........................ 68 100 65 102 / 5 10 50 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 98 64 99 / 0 0 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 104 68 103 / 0 10 20 5
PICACHO......................... 66 99 63 98 / 0 20 10 30
ELK............................. 64 98 61 97 / 0 20 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ207-219>221-225-
226-238>240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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