727
FXUS65 KABQ 081110 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CO IS ON ITS WAY TO GETTING ELONGATED
WITH CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING PROJECTED TODAY WHILE THE WEAK LOW WEST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS QUICKLY GETS ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW IN
SOUTHWEST TX. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND A LIGHT (5-10 KT) AND
GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND ALOFT OVER NM TODAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20'S (DEG F) IN WEST CENTRAL NM TO THE
40'S IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PWATS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.3 TO
0.7 INCH ON A SIMILAR GRADUATED ORIENTATION, NOT A LOT OF FUEL FOR
DEEP, MOIST CONVECTION TODAY. THIS CAN BE REITERATED ON THETA-E
PROGNOSES, AND CONSEQUENTLY THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE VERY SPARSE AND ISOLATED, GENERALLY STAYING RELEGATED TO HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS (ABOVE 8,000 FT) WHERE SOUTH-FACING SLOPES CAN ALLOW
AN UPDRAFT TO SUSTAIN ITSELF TODAY. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED CELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAY'S HIGHS, OR NEAR TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER HIGH AND LOW WILL GET FURTHER
ABSORBED EASTWARD, POSING NO EFFECT ON NM WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. A
COLD CORE LOW WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTH, CLOSER TO 30N, 130W, OVER THE
OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC, AND SOON-TO-BE TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL BE
ALIGNING FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL START TO INTRODUCE A
HINT OF WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NM WITH PWATS STILL
REMAINING FAIRLY LOW (0.4 TO 0.6 INCH) IN NM, BUT INCREASING IN
AZ. THETA-E PROGNOSES INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY ALIGNED OVER
THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN OF NM WHERE AGAIN STORMS WILL BE QUITE
SPARSE. A NEAR-PERSISTENCE FORECAST SHOULD HOLD FOR TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
THINGS TURN A BIT MORE INTERESTING FOR WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN PACIFIC COLD CORE LOW MERGE OFFSHORE OF THE
BAJA AND THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CA AND AZ. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN BETWEEN CA AND
AZ WITH MORE SUBDUED AND MODIFIED MOISTURE COMING INTO NM (PWATS
RISING TO 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH). STIFFER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ARRIVE SATURDAY (15 TO 25 KT AT 500 MB), TURNING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING MORE ON SUNDAY (25 TO 50 KT AT 500
MB). WITH SHORTENING DAY LENGTH AND A LOWER SOLAR ELEVATION
ANGLE, DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS GETTING HARDER TO COME BY, AND
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF INSTABILITY ARE QUITE MODEST (JUST A COUPLE
TO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE). THIS COUPLED WITH
THE QUICK STEERING FLOW WOULD LIKELY KEEP STORMS SPOTTY TO
SCATTERED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OROGRAPHICS HELPING REGENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OPTIMALLY
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SLOPES. OVERALL QPF IS QUITE
LIGHT WITH MOST OF THESE AREAS PROJECTED TO RECEIVE 0.25 INCH OR
LESS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY ANOTHER DEEPER COLD CORE LOW WILL BE
DROPPING INTO SOUTHERN CA WHILE THE REMNANTS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL
STORM, SIMON, GET ABSORBED INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT VIA
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES STILL
WITH THE TRACK AND PACE OF BOTH THE COLD CORE LOW AND SIMON, SO
PINPOINTING HOW AND IF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY INTACT IS A BIT
DAUNTING THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO ALIGN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND FORCING ALOFT,
BRINGING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MUCH OF NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO NORTHERN NM AS COLD CORE LOW DYNAMICS
TAKEOVER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE OF COURSE
MORE SUBDUED WITH THE PWATS, BUT STILL SHOW SOME RANGES IN VALUES
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (0.7 TO 1.2 INCH) WITH THE
GEFS RUNNING ON THE HIGHER SIDE, NOT ONLY ON PWATS BUT ALSO ON
QPF. FOR NOW, OFFICIAL QPF IS GENERALLY STAYING BETWEEN 0.1 TO 0.5
INCHES ON MONDAY, RISING TO A 0.25 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE ON A MORE
WIDESPREAD BASIS FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WITH JUST A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS (CEILINGS OF 7,000-8,000
FT) IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT A
NORTHERLY DRAINAGE BREEZE COULD TURN A BIT STIFF (10-15 KT) IN THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SPARSE AND
ISOLATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN MOUNTAINS WITH SLOW MOVEMENT THAT WILL
PREVENT THEM FROM MOVING VERY FAR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KT
AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IMMEDIATELY
BENEATH AND NEAR ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DIE OUT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A
CLEARING TREND WITH LIGHT BREEZES IS FORECAST TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS FROM LAND INFORMATION SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW GOOD SOIL MOISTURE RETENTION FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN
LATE SEPTEMBER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FUELS ON THE MOIST SIDE
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. SEASONAL FREEZES HAVE BEGUN
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS, GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET, AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME CURING OF FUELS, BUT REMAINING AREAS LOOK TO BE
SET UP FOR LATER FREEZES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSIONS
FORESEEN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS SLATED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FIRST HITTING SPOTTY AREAS IN
WESTERN NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE A POTENTIALLY MORE
WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING EVENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH RAIN CHANCES AND AMOUNTS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME NO BOUTS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE FORESEEN. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO
BREEZY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND TO THE WINDY CATEGORY ON SUNDAY, BUT
FORTUNATELY MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 77 41 75 44 / 5 5 0 10
CUBA............................ 74 45 72 47 / 10 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 79 44 76 47 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 74 43 73 45 / 0 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 76 44 75 47 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 76 45 74 47 / 5 5 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 73 49 72 51 / 0 5 0 5
DATIL........................... 72 44 71 46 / 5 5 0 5
RESERVE......................... 79 47 77 48 / 20 5 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 83 53 82 53 / 30 10 5 10
CHAMA........................... 71 41 69 43 / 10 10 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 49 72 50 / 5 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 74 44 72 45 / 5 5 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 42 70 45 / 10 5 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 65 35 62 39 / 10 10 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 28 67 32 / 10 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 75 43 73 45 / 5 5 0 0
MORA............................ 72 41 71 43 / 5 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 79 49 78 50 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 74 47 72 48 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 46 75 48 / 5 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 53 77 54 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 55 78 56 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 53 79 54 / 0 5 0 5
BELEN........................... 81 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 82 51 80 53 / 0 5 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 81 51 80 51 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 81 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 79 51 77 53 / 0 5 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 53 79 55 / 0 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 80 55 80 55 / 0 5 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 48 72 50 / 5 5 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 76 50 74 51 / 0 5 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 75 48 74 49 / 0 5 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 44 76 46 / 0 5 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 48 72 49 / 0 5 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 48 72 50 / 0 5 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 49 73 49 / 5 5 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 53 75 54 / 10 5 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 68 48 68 49 / 20 10 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 75 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 79 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 80 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 81 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 77 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 56 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 83 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 77 53 78 53 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 74 50 74 50 / 10 5 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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