139
FXUS65 KABQ 170754
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
154 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND MONDAY OVER EASTERN NM.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL IMPACT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST TODAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE
TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A VERY DRY, WARM, AND WINDY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON TAP TODAY AND
MONDAY. A POTENT 140KT H3 JETMAX DIGGING DOWN THE PACNW IS
SHARPENING A TROUGHING PATTERN THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD CLOSING OFF AN H5
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE, ENHANCING THE
FIRE GROWTH PATTERN OVER NM. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25MPH
SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY RUIDOSO
AND THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN
DUST PRONE AREAS ALONGSIDE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON AREA HIGHWAYS WILL BE PRESENT. THE MAIN VORTLOBE
ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ANY NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH OF THE STATE BORDER. ELEVATED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER MOUNTAIN TOPS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SPREADING BACK DOWN TO SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAY
AND AFTERNOON MONDAY. TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN THE SURFACE IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE TO AVOID THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS AS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AT H7 TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER
CO/KS/OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT NOT ENTIRELY, THERE IS STILL A
MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS > 55MPH REACHING AREAS
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE WIND POTENTIAL SUBSIDES LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF BLOWING DUST AND HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON AREA HIGHWAYS WILL
FOCUS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AS PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY EVENING, A COLD
FRONT BACKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NM WILL BRING ONE MORE ROUND
OF GUSTY WINDS, THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING AND OPENING H5 LOW/TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A STRONG 9-12MB 3HR SURFACE
PRESSURE INCREASE BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NM AND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES. THIS SHARP INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURE WILL HELP
PUSH THE FRONT AND ENHANCE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO
25 TO 35 MPH FOR A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE TX BORDER LIKE CLOVIS.
OTHERWISE, THIS FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY TO EASTERN NM AS IT WASHES UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY. AFTER DRIER
S/SSW WINDS TRY TO PUSH BACK INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, A MORE
NOTABLE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY MAKES ITS WAY INTO
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80S FOR PLACES LIKE ROSWELL.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A TWO-FACED SITUATION
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH THE WEST FAVORING DRY CONDITIONS WHILE HIGHER
MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE MAIN AREA OF
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY CAN PUSH
EACH MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY HEAVILY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION
CAN GENERATE EACH EVENING, WITH RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEING
THE SIGNIFICANT DRIVER OF HOW FAR WEST SAID MOISTURE CAN REACH. ALL
THE WHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN EACH DAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO TAP INTO
TO ORGANIZE INTO STRONGER AND MORE LONGER LIVED CELLS. STORM MOTION
FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN
AS THIS STEERING FLOW WEAKENS RESULTING IN SMALLER AND MORE POTENT
WETTING FOOTPRINTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF FRONTAL BOUNDARY NUDGING
INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NM BRINGING A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT TO KFMN
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SMOKE FROM THE SEVEN CABINS WILDFIRE LOOKS TO
STAY NORTH OF KROW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS LONG AS SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF S/SW THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NEVERTHELESS. LLWS REMAINS THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TO TERMINALS
OVER A NOTABLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCLUDED
MENTION OF THIS AT KFMN-KABQ-KAEG-KSAF TONIGHT AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS REMAIN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
THIS IS FORECAST TO STEADILY SUBSIDE THROUGH 09Z TO 11Z HOWEVER.
SW LLWS WILL RETURN TO A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP AT
GROUND LEVEL AREAWIDE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS OF
40KTS. BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITY MAY ALSO OCCUR IN DUST
PRONE LOCATIONS. INCLUDED A GENERIC MENTION OF 6SM FROM BLDU AT
KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES
TODAY AND MONDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM...
STRENGTHENING VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THE CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. A
DEEPENING TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL YIELD
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE STATE TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM. WIDESPREAD
HUMIDITY FALLING <10% FOR 6 TO 18 HOURS FOLLOWING AN ABYSMALLY POOR
RECOVERY THIS MORNING PEAKING AT 15-20% OVER EASTERN WILL YIELD
EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY THUS REMAINS
ON TRACK.
MONDAY SEES EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE MAIN JETMAX
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING W-E OVER SOUTHERN CO AND
ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THE STRONGEST 30-40MPH GUSTING UPWARDS
OF 50-60 MPH FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND LESSER WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN NM DURING THIS TIME. THESE WINDS STEADILY BACK OFF FROM
THEIR PEAKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
MONDAY MORNING REMAIN POOR OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS MAKING IT EASY FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HUMIDITY FALLING <10% FOR 5-10 HOURS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS. DESPITE FORECAST MINIMUM HUMIDITY STAYING ABOVE LOCAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS
GUSTING 40-55MPH ALONGSIDE ERCS APPROACHING THE 97TH PERCENTILE AND
CURRENT EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS, HAVE ELECTED TO EXPAND MONDAY'S
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A STRONG AND SUDDEN NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
THROUGH EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT, GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH AT TIMES ALONG
THE TX BORDER. HOWEVER, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY AS WINDS SUBSIDE LATER TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, DRIER
CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL FAVOR WESTERN NM WHILE
HIGHER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD SEE SOME OF THIS
HIGHER HUMIDITY ALLOWING FOR HIGHER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER EASTERN NM CAN PUSH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 82 47 66 38 / 0 5 20 0
DULCE........................... 75 38 63 26 / 0 0 40 0
CUBA............................ 75 43 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 78 39 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 43 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 78 42 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 43 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 78 50 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 74 46 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 78 43 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 83 44 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 69 36 57 29 / 0 0 40 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 53 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 75 46 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 45 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 62 38 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 31 61 20 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 77 41 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 74 44 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 82 50 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 78 51 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 81 49 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 58 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 54 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 53 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 55 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 50 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 86 55 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 49 84 43 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 87 55 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 51 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 81 57 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 55 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 90 55 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 78 53 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 79 52 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 80 51 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 46 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 50 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 80 50 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 51 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 57 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 54 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 79 42 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 81 42 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 84 44 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 77 50 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 88 53 84 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 83 51 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 92 57 88 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 55 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 60 91 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 94 57 92 47 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 95 57 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 56 89 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 95 57 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 86 56 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 83 54 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104>106-109-121-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-106-109-121>126.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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