999
FXUS65 KABQ 121928
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
- LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND GUST TO 50MPH OR GREATER FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, LATE WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
- MODERATE CHANCE (50-70%) OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. MODERATE CHANCE
(50-70%) ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- MODERATE CHANCE (40-60%) FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A 500MB HEIGHT OF 591DAM,
WHICH IS A CALENDAR DAY RECORD 500MB HEIGHT. RECORD AND NEAR-
RECORD HEAT AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON CORRELATES WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS, WITH KABQ FORECAST TO TIE
TODAY'S RECORD HIGH OF 93 DEGREES. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OF NM ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE EXTRA BUMP IN PWATS, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A CROP OF HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT
WILL FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS VS WETTING (>0.10")
RAINFALL. THE 12Z NAM IS ADVERTISING POCKETS OF DCAPE REACHING
2,000+J/KG WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY 21Z WEDNESDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GREATER THAN 50MPH. DRY
CONVECTION WILL PROGRESS INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, BRINGING STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR
TO NEAR CAPULIN. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HOT ONE TOO, WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW RACING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL STEER STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
NM. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING DEEP LAYER MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BOOST ROSWELL'S HIGH
TEMPERATURE TO 100 DEGREES. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN FRIDAY, BUT THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL BACK AND INCREASE THIS WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE MOST
NOTABLE ON SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS TO BETWEEN
985-989MB ACROSS EASTERN CO. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE
CHANCE (40-60%) OF WIND SPEEDS EXCEEDING ADVISORY THRESHOLD ON
SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY,
BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED, BUT
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
AN UPPER HIGH IS BRINGING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, BUT WILL
MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
THE AREA, RESULTING IN A ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
BE FAIRLY LIMITED WEDNESDAY, BUT ANY IGNITIONS COULD GROW ON
THURSDAY GIVEN STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST. MANY HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEEP LAYER MIXING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE SUSTAINED/GUST SPREADS. IN
ADDITION, ERCS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS WEEK AND SHOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD BY THURSDAY. THAT SAID, A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY, BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. BACKING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT THIS WEEKEND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL BRING BACK THE
THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER A LARGER AREA ON
SUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WIND
TO NM AND POTENTIALLY MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 88 48 84 / 0 10 10 0
DULCE........................... 43 85 43 80 / 0 5 20 0
CUBA............................ 49 82 47 78 / 0 10 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 84 42 81 / 0 10 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 81 44 77 / 0 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 84 45 82 / 0 20 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 82 45 80 / 10 10 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 84 54 83 / 0 10 5 5
DATIL........................... 52 80 49 80 / 5 10 5 0
RESERVE......................... 48 86 43 84 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 50 91 46 87 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 41 79 40 74 / 0 5 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 83 57 80 / 0 10 10 0
PECOS........................... 49 83 50 80 / 0 10 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 80 48 76 / 0 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 41 71 42 67 / 0 10 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 76 42 72 / 0 10 10 0
TAOS............................ 48 84 48 81 / 0 5 10 0
MORA............................ 47 81 51 79 / 0 10 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 89 55 86 / 0 5 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 53 84 53 81 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 87 52 84 / 0 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 88 60 86 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 90 58 87 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 92 57 90 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 90 57 88 / 0 5 5 0
BELEN........................... 56 92 55 91 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 91 58 88 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 92 53 90 / 0 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 57 91 57 89 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 92 53 90 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 88 60 85 / 0 5 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 90 58 88 / 0 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 94 61 93 / 0 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 84 56 81 / 0 5 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 56 83 / 0 5 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 86 55 83 / 0 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 87 45 85 / 0 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 83 54 81 / 0 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 86 54 84 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 88 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 80 61 80 / 5 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 44 81 50 83 / 10 10 10 10
RATON........................... 46 85 50 86 / 10 10 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 47 87 51 88 / 10 10 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 83 54 82 / 0 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 51 86 58 91 / 10 5 5 10
ROY............................. 50 84 55 87 / 10 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 55 93 61 95 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 91 57 92 / 0 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 56 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 56 96 60 97 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 95 60 96 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 61 98 63 100 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 57 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 56 88 57 88 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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