510
FXUS65 KABQ 082329
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON AREA BURN
SCARS EACH DAY FROM DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM, MAINLY IN UNION COUNTY.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE H5 REMAINS FLAT AND ELONGATED WEST TO EAST FROM NM TO JUST
OFFSHORE THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TODAY WITH ONLY MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD SURFACE TD'S
IN THE 40S TO 50S IS BEGINNING TO YIELD THIS AFTERNOON'S CROP OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. STEERING
FLOW WILL GENERALLY TAKE STORMS OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S S/SE OVER
THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS LATE TODAY, REACHING NEAR THE SACRAMENTO MTS
THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRIEFLY
PRODUCING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S,
BUT ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW. RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS
PARTICULAR CLUSTER WILL STEADILY LOWER AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE SLOWER AND ERRATIC WITH SHORT LIFESPANS.
RELATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL HEIGHTEN THE RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG AND ABRUPT DRY
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS. EVENING CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN TO ABOUT THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WITH ERRATIC
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO CALMING THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTER A RELATIVELY CALM OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIOD, THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE H5 HIGH CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND MIGRATE WESTWARD, ALLOWING
FOR DRIER WESTERLIES TO EXPAND THROUGH MORE OF NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL SHUNT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MORESO TO
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS, AS WELL AS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN THE GILA NF AREA, AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS NEAR RUIDOSO. STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVERRIDING THE CO
ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE FOR BETTER BULK SHEAR, ALLOWING FOR A MARGINAL
RISK OF STORMS MOVING EAST OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE OVER COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE H5 HIGH BUILDS BACK EAST OVER NM FRIDAY, BUT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL FAVOR THE SAME AREAS WITH ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S. THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 100S FOR MORE LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. SOME AREAS INCLUDING FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE MAY
NEED HEAT ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE H5 HIGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE INTO A MORE CLASSICALLY SHAPED NAM
MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE HEAT GOING OVER WESTERN NM WITH SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL PRESENT THROUGH EASTERN NM. AFTERNOON STORMS WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WITH RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
RECENT BURN SCARS. PWATS CLIMB TOWARD THE 0.90" TO 1.00" MARK SUNDAY
AS THE MONSOON HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE 600DM MARK OVER WY, ALLOWING
FOR GULF MOISTURE TO ADVANCE FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE STATE. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NM. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES PRESENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM CAPABLE OF BEING A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS AS WELL.
THE NEAR 600-602DM HIGH SETS UP ITS DOMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING A HEALTHY INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF THROUGH MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE MIGRATING WESTWARD OVER SURROUNDING
LOWER ELEVATIONS IS THE FAVORED PATTERN EACH DAY. ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING WHERE STORMS PASS OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALSO TREND DOWN WITH THE HIGH MIGRATING AWAY FROM NM,
LOWERING THE HEAT RISK.
ONE AREA FOR UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK REVOLVES AROUND GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS NO LONGER
STRONGLY RESOLVING AN EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE PUSHING INTO NM FROM TX.
SUPPRESSION ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE WOULD ACT TO LOWER
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, INCREASING AGAIN AS ITS AXIS MOVES INTO THE
STATE, BUT THERE IS LESS OF A SIGNAL FOR THAT WITH THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS THIS MORNING. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, WITH COVERAGE DISSIPATING AFTER 03Z IN
MOST AREAS. GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS WILL CREATE VARIABLE WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NM WILL SHIFT WESTWARD
THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR INCREASING WEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR INTRUDING FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
NO BY THE BOOK CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HOWEVER, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HEAT BUILDING AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY REMAINS. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ABRUPT AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANIED
BY AN INCREASED DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL DOES EXIST WHERE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PASS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL, NORTHERN, AND
WESTERN NM THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. MORE RAIN EFFICIENT
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER EASTERN NM SATURDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EACH AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN MONSOON HIGH
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND MIGRATES OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 98 63 97 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 49 93 48 94 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 91 59 92 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 93 58 93 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 89 58 89 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 93 58 94 / 20 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 90 61 90 / 50 0 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 90 66 92 / 20 30 20 10
DATIL........................... 60 87 62 88 / 20 20 20 5
RESERVE......................... 54 95 55 95 / 50 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 58 99 59 99 / 20 40 30 30
CHAMA........................... 49 86 49 87 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 88 65 90 / 10 20 5 5
PECOS........................... 57 90 58 92 / 20 20 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 86 56 88 / 20 30 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 48 77 48 78 / 20 20 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 82 38 83 / 20 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 52 90 52 91 / 10 20 0 0
MORA............................ 54 86 55 87 / 20 40 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 60 95 61 98 / 10 20 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 90 63 92 / 20 30 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 94 60 95 / 20 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 97 70 99 / 20 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 99 66 100 / 20 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 100 65 102 / 20 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 99 68 100 / 20 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 64 100 65 102 / 20 10 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 100 67 101 / 20 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 100 63 101 / 20 10 20 0
CORRALES........................ 66 100 67 102 / 20 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 100 65 101 / 20 10 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 68 97 / 20 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 99 67 100 / 20 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 101 71 104 / 20 10 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 92 64 93 / 20 10 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 93 63 94 / 20 10 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 94 60 95 / 20 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 95 56 96 / 30 10 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 89 58 91 / 30 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 93 61 95 / 40 10 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 91 63 94 / 60 20 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 68 97 / 40 20 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 59 86 63 89 / 30 40 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 54 86 53 86 / 20 60 20 60
RATON........................... 53 90 54 90 / 20 50 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 92 55 93 / 20 40 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 89 57 90 / 20 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 94 61 92 / 20 40 30 10
ROY............................. 60 90 59 90 / 20 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 66 99 65 99 / 30 20 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 95 64 96 / 30 20 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 100 68 100 / 20 5 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 99 68 99 / 5 5 20 0
PORTALES........................ 69 99 70 101 / 5 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 101 72 103 / 10 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 65 96 66 97 / 20 20 20 5
ELK............................. 62 93 64 94 / 10 50 10 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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