605
FXUS65 KABQ 231145 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 438 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WINTER STORM HAZARD CHANGES:
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING OTHER THAN CHANGING
THE SEGMENTS AROUND A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. THE REMAINING SEGMENT OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY, WITH THE START TIME PUSHED BACK
ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THE
CHUSKAS, NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS, AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WERE ALSO
ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WARM, MOIST PACIFIC
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD, DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTHEAST.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN EASTERN NM AS WINDS SLOWLY
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG 1048MB SFC HIGH THAT IS SLIDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AS CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWER AND SFC DEWPOINTS RISE. SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN LATE THIS MORNING, RAPIDLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN SWATH OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
STATE. THE MOST INTENSE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN THE 800-600MB
LAYER, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT THE MAIN DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES HERE, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD
DRIER, SUGGESTING MORE GAPS IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE 700MB LAYER WILL INCREASE SNOW
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS IN THE EAST AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS VERY SLOWLY TRIES TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST.
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS,
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF
0.1". THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SPARED FROM THE
FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS HOVERING JUST A TAD ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COLDER AND NOT AS LUCKY. FURTHERMORE, HI-RES MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN IN AND AROUND THE RUIDOSO AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE SHALLOW, COLD AIRMASS BANKS UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. IF THIS AIRMASS MANAGES TO SQUEAK AROUND THE SACRAMENTO AND
CAPITAN MOUNTAINS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE ON TAP
FOR THE TULAROSA VALLEY AS WELL. ANOTHER NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET, WITH THE
HREF INDICATING THAT FREEZING RAIN COULD CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT ALL
THE WAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE
NAM ARE SHOWING A VERY STRONG WARM NOSE AT 700MB, DESPITE RAPIDLY
DROPPING SFC TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS REASON, BOTH THE NBM AND HREF
ARE SHOWING LOW PROBS (10-30%) FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, DESPITE RAPIDLY DROPPING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 20S AND TEENS. FREEZING RAIN AT THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
EXCEEDINGLY RARE SO SKEPTICISM IS QUITE HIGH THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THAT THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT
WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS COMBATING ITS PROGRESS. THAT BEING SAID,
THE SNOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE STARK ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BOUNDARY, CREATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SNOW
LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE AREAS JUST EAST. THE
PACIFIC LOW LIFTS ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. SNOW LEVELS DROP AS 700MB TEMPS
FINALLY PLUMMET, WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS THE BEST WINDOW FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN
THIS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RGV, WITH 1-2" THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID, THE GEFS AND EPS HAVE BOTH TRENDED COLDER
ON SATURDAY WITH THE MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLE, SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICKER TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE, WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -10F IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS, INCLUDING CLOVIS AND CLAYTON. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS A PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE STATE. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10
TO AS MUCH AS 35 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS
SNOW DENSITY TRENDS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DROPPING TEMPS. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS.
MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER THUS
FAR WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS.
HIGHS MAY TREND DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE COMING DAYS DUE TO
SNOW COVER, ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A LIGHT DOWNSLOPING
BREEZE WILL PROMOTE QUICK MELTING ACROSS THE EAST. MODEL UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES LATE WEEK WHEN THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (~20%) OF A WEAK
WINTER STORM EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW GRAZING CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 438 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DROP IN EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND
INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 7,000 FEET IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
AND MUCH LOWER IN EASTERN NM. PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT LOW CIGS IN EASTERN NM. A WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH RA, SN, PL,
FZRA ALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL TREND LOWER
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
POOR VENTILATION PREVAILS IN MOST AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY, EXCEPT
FOR POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION IMPROVES SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT, WITH THE GREATEST IMPROVEMENTS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF LIQUID-EQUIVALENT
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.5" ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WINTER STORM, WITH DANGEROUSLY
COLD TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY MODERATE EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR IMPROVEMENTS MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 32 39 15 / 20 80 80 20
DULCE........................... 45 26 36 3 / 60 100 100 50
CUBA............................ 45 26 35 6 / 60 90 100 70
GALLUP.......................... 49 28 38 3 / 30 80 100 50
EL MORRO........................ 48 27 38 9 / 50 90 100 70
GRANTS.......................... 49 26 41 6 / 50 90 100 70
QUEMADO......................... 48 29 39 12 / 60 80 100 80
MAGDALENA....................... 50 31 43 20 / 60 80 100 90
DATIL........................... 45 30 40 17 / 60 80 100 90
RESERVE......................... 46 31 44 13 / 80 80 100 90
GLENWOOD........................ 50 35 48 19 / 90 90 100 90
CHAMA........................... 38 21 31 4 / 60 90 100 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 26 32 12 / 30 90 100 80
PECOS........................... 40 19 26 6 / 30 90 100 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 21 31 8 / 20 80 100 80
RED RIVER....................... 34 16 25 3 / 20 80 100 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 8 29 -9 / 20 80 100 90
TAOS............................ 45 22 32 4 / 20 80 100 80
MORA............................ 40 18 29 4 / 20 90 100 90
ESPANOLA........................ 47 27 35 10 / 30 90 100 80
SANTA FE........................ 43 24 29 11 / 30 90 100 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 23 30 9 / 30 90 100 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 31 37 16 / 40 100 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 32 39 16 / 40 90 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 33 41 14 / 40 90 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 32 38 16 / 30 90 100 80
BELEN........................... 53 34 43 11 / 40 90 100 90
BERNALILLO...................... 51 30 38 14 / 30 90 100 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 33 41 10 / 40 90 100 90
CORRALES........................ 51 31 38 15 / 30 90 100 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 34 41 12 / 40 90 100 90
PLACITAS........................ 50 29 37 15 / 30 100 100 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 31 38 16 / 30 90 100 80
SOCORRO......................... 52 35 46 17 / 60 80 100 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 26 33 11 / 40 100 100 90
TIJERAS......................... 48 27 35 12 / 40 100 100 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 23 31 6 / 40 100 100 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 21 29 0 / 40 100 100 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 17 19 2 / 40 90 100 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 26 35 5 / 50 100 100 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 26 36 5 / 60 100 100 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 33 39 13 / 80 100 100 100
RUIDOSO......................... 43 27 32 12 / 90 100 100 100
CAPULIN......................... 24 4 14 0 / 10 60 60 70
RATON........................... 31 9 17 0 / 10 50 70 80
SPRINGER........................ 33 9 19 0 / 10 50 50 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 13 19 1 / 20 80 90 80
CLAYTON......................... 21 1 10 2 / 30 80 70 80
ROY............................. 27 7 13 1 / 30 70 80 90
CONCHAS......................... 33 9 16 0 / 40 90 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 13 18 1 / 50 90 100 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 7 13 -2 / 40 90 100 90
CLOVIS.......................... 34 9 13 2 / 50 90 100 100
PORTALES........................ 36 10 16 1 / 50 80 100 100
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 13 19 0 / 60 80 100 100
ROSWELL......................... 43 24 25 7 / 80 90 100 90
PICACHO......................... 41 21 25 6 / 70 90 100 90
ELK............................. 47 24 29 6 / 90 90 100 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ210>218-221>224-229-232>234-237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ227-228-230-231.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ207-219-225-241.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ202-203-206-208.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ226-235-236-238>240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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