682
FXUS65 KABQ 271714 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1114 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
CANYON GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY. PATCHY BLOWING
DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CREATE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN
COMMONPLACE ALTHOUGH NO HIGH WIND GUSTS (>58 MPH) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
YET. VERY LITTLE DUST HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE FRONT, BUT THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM. THIS COLD
FRONT IS BOTH COLDER AND MORE MOIST THAN THE AIRMASS THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE SO THE RELATIVE LACK OF A DENSITY GRADIENT HAS
LIKELY HELPED TO KEEP MAX WIND GUSTS DOWN SLIGHTLY SO FAR TONIGHT.
STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR
IN ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE (TO A LESSER DEGREE). STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH WINDS FINALLY DECREASING IN
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS COULD PICK UP A LITTLE DUST IN THE RGV AS
WELL, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AIR QUALITY BEING THE MAIN IMPACT.
24-HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE, WITH FORECAST HIGHS 30 TO 45 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY'S RECORD SHATTERING VALUES. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN NM, PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY KEEPING HIGHS EVEN BELOW FORECAST VALUES.
THAT BEING SAID, SOME LOCATIONS SUCH AS ROSWELL MOST LIKELY ALREADY
REACHED THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING. LOCATIONS SUCH AS SANTA FE
AND LAS VEGAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE
EARLY MORNING SO BE SURE TO COVER ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION IF IN
THESE AREAS. THE SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
SHALLOW FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AGAIN,
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY, HELPING TO SUPPORT THE RAPID WARM-UP.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH
PWATS RISING WELL-ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (200-300% OF NORMAL).
THIS WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN WESTERN NM, WHICH
IS GENERALLY QUITE DRY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT BEING SAID, THE
DEWPOINTS AT THE SFC WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE (ONLY 20 TO 30F).
THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND AND THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IT CREATES AS IT MOVES INTO THE
DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY IN WESTERN NM COULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES,
WITH THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BEING THE FAVORED AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 500 J/KG OF DCAPE IN WESTERN NM, WHICH IS ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR DAMAGING
OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SFC HEATING BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
STRONGER GUSTS. DCAPE VALUES RISE INTO THE 600-800 J/KG RANGE ON
MONDAY, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS. IN
ADDITION, THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD
THANKS TO A SUBTLE LIFTING MECHANISM FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
A QUASI-ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PUSH INLAND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, PUSHING MORE MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NM AND
INCREASING FORCING ALOFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WETTING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
IN THE REST OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES DROP
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, BUT REBOUND LATER IN THE
WEEK. WESTERLY WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
500MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE ENS IS STILL SHOWING A DEEPER TROUGH,
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES, WHILE THE
GEFS FAVORS GUSTY, DRY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES ARE PREVAILING AT MOST NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AIRPORTS, BUT A FEW ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUCH AS KAXX AND KSRR WILL PERIODICALLY BE DEALING WITH LOWER
MVFR CEILINGS (2,500-3,000 FT) THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGHER VFR CEILINGS OF 3,500-4,500 FT WILL BE MORE COMMON
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE OTHER PRIMARY AVIATION
WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY HIT 35
TO 45 KT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH A FEW GUSTS OCCASIONALLY
HITTING NEAR 50 KT NEAR AND JUST EAST OF KABQ, KBRG, AND KONM WHERE
A COLD FRONT IS ACCELERATING THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS WITHIN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS WILL SETTLE IN THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO RELAX IN CENTRAL AREAS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE RAPIDLY DROPPING AND MOISTURE IS INCREASING BEHIND
A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PEAK
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH EAST CANYON WINDS THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKING LATE MORNING AND
REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE 10 TO AS MUCH AS 45 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY'S RECORD
BREAKING VALUES, BUT WARM AGAIN ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC
PRESSURE FALLS. A STRONG SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE, BUT HUMIDITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOONS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO GIVEN THAT FUELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY FOR LATE MARCH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY VIRGA SHOWERS
AS WELL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD. THE CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. WESTERLY WINDS TREND STRONGER MID TO
LATE WEEK, INCREASING THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 42 76 41 / 0 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 73 28 71 31 / 5 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 64 30 67 37 / 0 0 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 75 32 76 34 / 0 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 66 32 72 37 / 0 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 67 29 73 35 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 71 35 75 39 / 0 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 62 32 68 44 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 63 31 71 41 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 80 33 74 35 / 0 0 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 85 36 76 39 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 67 28 65 34 / 10 0 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 35 67 45 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 58 28 67 39 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 29 67 39 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 52 25 61 33 / 5 0 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 17 65 27 / 5 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 66 25 69 32 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 53 25 71 40 / 0 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 72 32 72 39 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 65 34 67 43 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 33 69 40 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 37 70 49 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 38 72 48 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 31 74 40 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 38 72 46 / 0 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 69 34 73 40 / 0 0 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 69 36 72 44 / 0 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 69 31 73 38 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 70 36 72 44 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 33 72 39 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 64 36 69 48 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 37 71 47 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 69 38 72 47 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 32 66 46 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 62 33 67 46 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 30 68 42 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 26 71 32 / 0 0 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 65 40 / 0 0 5 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 28 67 41 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 29 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 34 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 23 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 47 26 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 53 25 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 55 28 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 27 69 41 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 33 69 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 30 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 36 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 35 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 36 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 36 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 36 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 34 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 29 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ220-227-230-
231-234-238.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ219.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ224-225-
235-236.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52
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