174
FXUS65 KABQ 202331 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
- GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, AS WELL AS A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
STORM COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AND FRIDAY AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS BENEATH A STRONG MONSOON HIGH DRIFTING NORTH AND
EAST THRU SOUTHERN CO. THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17" WITH
NO MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND H5 HEIGHTS STILL AT 598DM.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT MOST
METARS AS OF 1PM. 12Z CAMS AND PROBABILISTIC QPF SHOWS HIGHER PEAK
QPF NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY BEFORE TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER
FRIDAY. A COUPLE STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS
WHERE STORM COVERAGE IS GREATER. SOUTHEAST NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL STILL SEE FEWER STORMS SO TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY STILL LOOKS DRIER AND HOTTER WITH THE MAIN
STORM FOCUS OVER FAR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN NM AS THE 598DM H5
HIGH CENTERS OVER EASTERN NM. DRIER UPPER LEVEL AIR ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALSO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS WHILE
PWATS FALL BELOW 0.75" IN MOST AREAS. ANY OF THE STORMS OVER FAR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD-TO-NEAR-
RECORD HIGHS IN MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS REGARDING THE MEDIUM TO EXTENDED
RANGE PATTERN. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE MONSOON
HIGH DRIFTING FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHEAST AZ WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. A MOIST
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM
SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD SERVE
TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM BY MID
NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH TRENDING TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 00Z, WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AS LATE AS 06Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
EVENING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 35KTS AT
TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z, WITH LOWER GUSTS THEREAFTER. THE CONFIDENCE
FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IMPACTS IS HIGHER THAN TS OR SHRA IMPACTS TO
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT TS OR SHRA IMPACT TO TERMINALS
MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF BRIEF GUSTY DRAINAGE WINDS NEAR
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MAINLY FORMING ALONG THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NM AFTER 18Z, WITH SIMILAR HAZARDS LIKELY (GUSTY WINDS,
BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LATEST FORECAST. THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PEAK TODAY
AND FRIDAY THEN FOCUS OVER FAR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN NM THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN DRY FUELS. BURN SCAR FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING
STORM COVERAGE, HIGH TEMPS NEAR RECORD HIGHS, AND DECREASING
MINIMUM RH. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD WITH THE
HIGHER VALUES OVER EASTERN NM. A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
MAY BEGIN TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 98 64 96 / 20 10 30 5
DULCE........................... 53 93 50 91 / 10 40 40 50
CUBA............................ 58 90 59 90 / 40 20 30 20
GALLUP.......................... 56 91 57 90 / 20 40 50 20
EL MORRO........................ 55 87 56 86 / 40 50 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 58 91 59 90 / 40 30 30 50
QUEMADO......................... 59 88 59 87 / 30 60 30 50
MAGDALENA....................... 63 89 64 89 / 30 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 58 85 59 85 / 20 40 20 30
RESERVE......................... 58 94 58 93 / 30 40 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 61 99 64 98 / 10 20 10 20
CHAMA........................... 53 86 52 84 / 20 50 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 89 63 88 / 20 20 30 30
PECOS........................... 56 89 58 89 / 20 30 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 87 57 86 / 40 40 20 40
RED RIVER....................... 45 83 45 85 / 30 60 20 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 83 42 82 / 20 50 20 60
TAOS............................ 54 91 55 90 / 30 40 20 30
MORA............................ 55 86 55 85 / 20 40 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 63 96 62 96 / 30 20 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 90 63 90 / 30 20 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 93 61 93 / 20 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 95 69 96 / 30 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 97 67 97 / 30 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 99 66 99 / 30 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 98 69 98 / 30 5 30 5
BELEN........................... 65 98 65 99 / 20 10 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 99 68 99 / 30 10 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 98 64 99 / 20 10 20 0
CORRALES........................ 67 99 68 100 / 30 10 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 98 66 98 / 20 5 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 93 67 94 / 30 20 20 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 98 68 98 / 30 5 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 100 69 100 / 20 10 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 89 62 89 / 30 20 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 62 92 63 93 / 30 20 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 93 59 94 / 30 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 93 56 94 / 30 30 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 89 60 89 / 30 20 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 91 59 92 / 30 30 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 90 61 91 / 30 20 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 93 66 93 / 20 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 86 60 86 / 20 60 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 56 88 58 88 / 20 20 10 20
RATON........................... 56 91 57 91 / 20 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 56 93 56 94 / 30 20 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 89 56 90 / 20 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 65 96 66 97 / 20 20 5 5
ROY............................. 61 92 61 93 / 20 20 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 67 100 67 101 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 95 64 96 / 20 10 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 100 68 101 / 20 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 99 68 100 / 30 20 10 0
PORTALES........................ 68 99 69 100 / 30 20 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 99 68 100 / 30 10 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 103 70 103 / 5 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 66 95 66 96 / 5 5 10 5
ELK............................. 62 93 62 94 / 0 20 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...77
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