605
FXUS65 KABQ 152320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 516 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS STRONG WINDS DECREASE AREAWIDE.
- MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX EXITS QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION.
VERY DRY AIR WITH INCREASING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASING
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER TEMPS TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN TERMS OF HOW COLD LOWS ACTUALLY GET.
NONETHELESS, THERE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WITH LOTS OF
EASTERN NM FALLING INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT. FOLKS WITH EARLY SEASON
YARD PROJECTS, COOL SEASON VEGGIES, AND FRUIT TREES WILL NEED TO
TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP AS HIGH CLOUDS EXIT THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL ACTUALLY BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NM AND NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHWEST NM
BENEATH A THIN 130KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING SOUTH FROM WESTERN
CO. PEAK WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY AROUND FARMINGTON FOR A
FEW HOURS. THERE WILL STILL BE A RISK OF FIRE SPREAD WITH VERY LOW
HUMIDITY HOWEVER IT IS MORE MARGINAL THAN TODAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE
CHILLY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER HARD FREEZE OVER EASTERN NM.
STRONGER MIDSLOPE INVERSIONS WILL RETURN TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS A MARCH RECORD H5 HIGH CENTER DRIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SEVERAL LOCALES ARE STILL PROGGED TO
BREAK THEIR ALL-TIME MARCH AND POTENTIALLY ALL-TIME APRIL RECORD
HIGH TEMPS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO RUN
HIGHER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, EVEN MOS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO BREAK
MANY RECORDS SO THE OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THAT A HISTORIC MARCH
HEATWAVE IS IN STORE LATER THIS WEEK. IF THE ABQ SUNPORT HITS 90F
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, IT WILL BEAT THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 90F ON RECORD
BY 6 WEEKS!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THRU WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THRU EASTERN NM HAVE BACKED OFF
FROM THEIR EARLIER PEAK STRENGTHS. SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS TO THE RULE
TONIGHT, INCLUDING A GAP WIND REACHING KSAF BRINGING AN EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT THERE TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
WINDS VEER OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BUT WITH ONLY POOR TO FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
NORTHWEST NM MONDAY BUT WITH COOL TEMPERATURES, SHALLOW MIXING,
AND MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS CONDITIONS WARRANT ONLY ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL
FEATURE A RECORD STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A HISTORIC HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD TEMPS, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHTER
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 27 61 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 19 58 24 72 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 25 55 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 22 61 27 74 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 26 59 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 23 61 27 74 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 60 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 64 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 31 60 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 69 31 79 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 34 74 33 85 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 18 52 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 56 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 16 56 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 18 51 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 10 44 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 48 19 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 12 55 22 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 15 54 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 62 30 78 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 56 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 59 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 62 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 65 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 67 33 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 65 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 32 69 32 80 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 65 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 29 68 30 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 31 66 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 32 68 32 81 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 61 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 65 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 70 39 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 56 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 25 59 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 19 59 31 74 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 60 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 18 55 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 23 60 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 60 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 58 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 55 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 8 47 22 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 9 50 20 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 11 52 21 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 54 27 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 14 49 28 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 13 47 23 72 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 18 55 24 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 53 25 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 19 54 26 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 21 51 27 76 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 19 52 25 77 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 52 24 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 28 53 27 78 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 25 55 30 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 23 58 30 78 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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