571
FXUS65 KABQ 021154 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY. PATCHY FOG
WILL ALSO LIMIT VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ABQ METRO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THRU SUNRISE. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND SOUTH OF I-40 IS ALSO LIKELY TO
DIMINISH THRU SUNRISE. THE HIGHER NBM PROBS FOR CIGS <3,000 FT AND
VISIBILITIES <3 MILES ARE FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND TORRANCE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
NM. JUST HOW MUCH DRY AIR ARRIVES WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40 HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE AND ARE PROJECTED TO PICK
UP LOCALIZED WETTING RAINFALL (>0.10"). THE NBM INTER-QUARTILE
SPREAD IS HIGH FOR THESE LOW QPF AMOUNTS SO OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. OTHERWISE, A NICE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH WARMING TEMPS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY.
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN WITH LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE IN
STORE SUNDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO TREND 5-10F WARMER.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER NM MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT MOIST
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. A 85-95KT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A ~994MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL HELP TO
INCREASE WEST WINDS BUT THEIR STRENGTH MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAKER
MIXING FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE LATEST NBM 50TH PERCENTILE
WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
MUCH OF EASTERN NM.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AS A 110-130KT SPEED
MAX APPROACHES WESTERN NM AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE. PWATS
ARE SHOWN RISING TO BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.70" TUESDAY MORNING. HOW
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES CROSSING NM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT
STORM AND THE DETAILS WILL BE COMPLEX TO SORT OUT. A WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM SOCAL IS SHOWN OPENING UP WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORCES A SHORTWAVE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ANY PHASING CAN OCCUR
AND WHERE THAT OCCURS IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE TRICKY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ENTER NORTHEAST NM DURING THIS TIME.
FOR NOW, THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF ARE RELEGATED TO NORTHEAST NM AND
SOUTHWEST NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, ICING, MT OBSCURATIONS, AND HIGH LEVEL TURB
OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF NM THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. PATCHY MVFR LOW CIGS FARTHER NORTH TO THE I-40
CORRIDOR WILL ALSO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TS WILL REDEVELOP QUICKLY BEFORE NOON IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH WITH BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. DRY AIR
FILTERING SOUTH INTO NM BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL CLEAR ALL ACTIVITY
BY SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 AM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THE PAST 24-36 HOURS WITH PATCHY AREAS FROM THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY (30-60% CHANCE) THEN POSSIBLY PARTS OF
WESTERN NM SUNDAY (10-20% CHANCE). ERCS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO FALL
NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DRYING EXPECTED. THE ONE DAY TO WATCH
WILL BE MONDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE A LOW CHANCE TO
COINCIDE WITH MIN HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 15%. THICKER CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY LIMIT WINDS AND
MITIGATE CRITICAL CONDITIONS. RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THE PACIFIC SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 41 75 46 / 5 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 66 30 70 35 / 20 5 10 20
CUBA............................ 62 34 68 40 / 30 10 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 67 33 73 38 / 20 5 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 60 35 69 41 / 30 10 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 63 32 71 38 / 30 10 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 62 37 69 43 / 30 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 59 41 68 48 / 30 20 20 20
DATIL........................... 57 37 65 44 / 60 20 20 10
RESERVE......................... 66 35 72 41 / 40 20 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 71 39 77 45 / 40 20 5 5
CHAMA........................... 58 29 63 34 / 20 10 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 41 66 46 / 30 10 10 20
PECOS........................... 59 34 67 41 / 30 10 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 33 64 38 / 20 5 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 27 55 33 / 20 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 22 61 29 / 20 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 61 29 68 35 / 20 10 10 20
MORA............................ 56 30 65 38 / 20 10 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 66 38 73 43 / 20 10 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 39 67 45 / 30 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 37 71 43 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 45 72 51 / 20 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 44 74 50 / 20 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 45 76 48 / 20 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 44 75 51 / 20 10 10 20
BELEN........................... 69 39 75 46 / 20 10 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 68 43 75 49 / 20 10 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 40 76 44 / 20 10 10 20
CORRALES........................ 68 43 76 49 / 20 10 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 40 75 46 / 20 10 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 64 43 71 50 / 20 10 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 44 75 50 / 20 10 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 44 76 51 / 30 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 40 67 46 / 30 10 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 61 40 69 46 / 30 10 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 35 69 42 / 20 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 29 71 38 / 20 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 36 67 43 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 36 68 44 / 30 20 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 37 67 45 / 40 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 43 68 52 / 40 20 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 52 38 63 49 / 60 20 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 60 33 68 38 / 10 5 5 5
RATON........................... 64 32 74 36 / 10 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 65 31 74 37 / 10 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 33 69 42 / 20 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 68 43 77 48 / 5 0 5 5
ROY............................. 63 37 72 44 / 10 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 69 40 79 49 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 39 74 50 / 10 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 43 81 52 / 5 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 68 43 76 52 / 5 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 70 42 77 52 / 10 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 39 77 48 / 10 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 45 78 52 / 10 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 60 39 72 51 / 30 10 5 5
ELK............................. 57 36 71 47 / 30 20 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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