438
FXUS65 KABQ 191912
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
112 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
- THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL FOCUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SPREADING
INTO MORE OF NORTHERN NM AS AN H5 HIGH CONSOLIDATES OVER NORTHERN CO.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE PERMIAN BASIN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DRIFTED WEST TOWARD GUADALUPE PASS AND WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST THRU MONDAY. THE 18Z KABQ PWAT WAS
0.97" AND EAST/NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW HAS TRENDED UP TO BETWEEN 15
AND 25KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THRU MONDAY.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE ABQ METRO, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
HIGH TERRAIN. REFS/HREF 24-HR LPMM AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF SHOWS
MOST OF THE RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS >1" IN THE GILA REGION WITH 0.50" TO
1" VALUES MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ABQ. STRONGER STEERING FLOW WILL
HELP TO LIMIT STORM RESIDENCE TIME OUTSIDE OF ANY TRAINING CELLS
THRU MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THERE ARE NOTEWORTHY CHANGES IN MODEL TRENDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DRIFTING WEST OVER SOUTHERN
NM IS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN MONSOON PLUME. THE NAM TAKES THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GILA REGION INTO
EAST-CENTRAL AZ TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS
A FARTHER WESTWARD PROGRESSION TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL AZ WEDNESDAY. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL HAVE LARGE
IMPLICATIONS ON STORM COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE NBM IS TRENDING TOWARD A LARGER
AREA OF RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS >1" IN THE GILA REGION WITH FOOTPRINTS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM NEAR 0.5" BOTH DAYS. STEERING FLOW
WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN SOUTH TO
NORTH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE IN A FEW AREAS THAT HAVE
MISSED OUT ON STORMS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FOR EASTERN NM,
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND HOTTER AS A 598DM H5 HIGH BUILDS OVER WEST
TX. BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH H5 TD DEPRESSIONS
NEAR 25C WILL CHOKE STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR EASTERN NM. THE HIGH
WILL EXTEND WEST INTO CENTRAL NM THURSDAY AND SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW
100S FOR EASTERN NM BOTH DAYS WITH UPPER 90S IN THE ABQ METRO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SHRA/TS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THRU
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT 10-20KT
INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU THE EVENING. FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. DIRECT HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM EAST TO WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THERE IS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
PATCHY DRY FUELS MAY STILL LEAD TO NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE.
STEERING FLOW WILL BE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY, EAST TO WEST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY, THEN SOUTH TO
NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL FOOTPRINTS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"
WILL OCCUR WITH DIRECT HITS. A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORMING OVER NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 95 65 94 / 10 10 50 20
DULCE........................... 50 93 51 92 / 10 10 30 40
CUBA............................ 57 87 57 86 / 20 30 40 50
GALLUP.......................... 54 87 54 85 / 20 40 60 80
EL MORRO........................ 55 82 55 82 / 20 80 60 70
GRANTS.......................... 57 87 56 86 / 10 70 50 50
QUEMADO......................... 56 82 56 81 / 40 70 60 80
MAGDALENA....................... 62 84 62 82 / 10 40 20 50
DATIL........................... 58 80 57 78 / 20 70 50 70
RESERVE......................... 54 86 54 85 / 30 90 50 100
GLENWOOD........................ 56 88 55 87 / 40 90 50 100
CHAMA........................... 50 87 52 85 / 10 10 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 87 64 86 / 10 10 20 40
PECOS........................... 55 87 56 86 / 10 20 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 87 57 86 / 5 10 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 45 82 45 80 / 0 10 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 83 45 80 / 5 10 10 20
TAOS............................ 53 90 54 89 / 5 10 10 20
MORA............................ 53 85 54 83 / 10 10 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 62 94 63 93 / 10 10 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 62 87 62 87 / 20 20 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 90 60 90 / 20 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 92 67 91 / 10 40 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 93 65 92 / 10 40 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 95 64 93 / 10 40 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 94 67 93 / 20 30 20 40
BELEN........................... 63 93 63 92 / 10 50 10 50
BERNALILLO...................... 66 95 66 94 / 20 20 30 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 93 61 91 / 10 50 20 40
CORRALES........................ 66 96 66 94 / 20 20 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 93 63 91 / 10 50 20 40
PLACITAS........................ 66 91 66 90 / 20 20 30 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 95 66 93 / 20 20 30 50
SOCORRO......................... 67 94 67 92 / 10 40 20 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 87 60 86 / 10 40 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 59 89 59 89 / 10 40 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 90 55 89 / 10 20 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 89 53 89 / 5 20 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 85 56 84 / 5 20 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 87 56 86 / 10 50 10 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 84 57 84 / 10 50 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 62 84 / 20 60 20 70
RUIDOSO......................... 56 77 57 78 / 30 60 20 80
CAPULIN......................... 55 88 57 87 / 0 10 10 10
RATON........................... 55 92 56 90 / 5 5 10 30
SPRINGER........................ 56 92 58 91 / 0 0 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 87 57 86 / 0 5 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 60 89 61 90 / 0 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 64 95 65 96 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 89 63 90 / 0 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 95 67 97 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 64 92 65 95 / 10 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 65 93 66 95 / 20 5 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 92 65 94 / 0 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 93 68 95 / 20 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 61 87 62 88 / 20 30 10 40
ELK............................. 57 83 57 84 / 30 50 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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