364
FXUS65 KABQ 290713
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
113 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
- A LOCALIZED RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DUE TO DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS OF NEW MEXICO.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATING IN
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST CROSSWINDS WILL DEVELOP BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SKIMMING THE NM-CO BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AT 700
MB IN A 15 TO 25 KT RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
ENTERING NORTHEASTERN NM AND WILL OVERTAKE MOST OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH MID MORNING, SEEPING INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TO
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG
WITH SUBSTANTIAL RISES IN DEWPOINTS ABOVE THE EXTREMELY LOW SINGLE
DIGIT AND SUB-ZERO READINGS (DEG F) CURRENTLY IN PLACE. A FEW
BATCHES OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE SEEN OVER EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING, BUT AS WINDS VEER MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THESE WILL FADE AWAY. THIS WILL ACTUALLY SET UP A PSEUDO
DRYLINE JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 20'S AND 30'S TO THE EAST VERSUS THE VERY LOW READINGS TO THE
WEST. WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONVERGE WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW, THE
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL HAVE TIGHTENED, SO SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO 25
TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST IN THIS AREA OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
THIS WILL PRESENT SOME LOCALIZED HIGH FIRE DANGER, BUT OTHERWISE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY MODERATE (15 TO 25 MPH)
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
AFTER RETREATING SOME THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT WILL GAIN A SECOND
PUSH, ADVANCING FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO NM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY
THIS TIME, A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL BE CONVERGING, A
FORMER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL BE USHERED OVER THE
BAJA VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CLOSE
IN ON THE FOUR CORNERS BY WAY OF THE POLAR JET. THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A MOIST EASTERLY LOW LAYER FLOW INTO
NM WITH ENOUGH UPSLOPE, MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN, FIRST OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE COOL, MOIST AIRMASS ARRIVING
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WILL BE STABLE, AND WILL NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED CELLS. RAINFALL IS
PROJECTED TO TURN WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NM INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRAY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE, BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL NOT REALLY TRANSPIRE THERE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE EAST
WIND SPILLS BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
INTO FRIDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATION WILL CROSS OVER SOUTHERN
NM AND OLD MEXICO INTO WEST TX, AS ANOTHER FOUR CORNERS TROUGH
MERGES AND DEEPENS WITH ITS PREDECESSOR. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
(0.4 TO 0.7 INCH WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE EAST) FRIDAY, AND
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST, PARTICULARLY IN EAST CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE COOL,
MOIST, AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE EAST WILL KEEP STRATIFORM
RAINFALL THERE WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET, LATE SEASON SNOW STACK
UP ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. WESTERN ZONES WILL HAVE A BIT
MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (LI'S OF -1 TO -3 C), SUPPORTING A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WOULD CONTINUE OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT WOULD TURN MORE SCATTERED TO SPARSE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH LOSES ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. OVERALL, THE
BEST PROSPECTS FOR 1.0 INCH OR MORE WILL RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH BEING MORE COMMON IN
WESTERN ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROJECTED SNOW TOTALS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HAVE NOT ALTERED MUCH WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE,
AND 5 TO 15 INCHES OF WET, HEAVY SNOW STILL SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BEING THE
BENEFICIARIES OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS LATTER RANGE TO ACCOUNT FOR UPCOMING WINTRY TRAVEL
IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
ALTHOUGH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLATED TO OVERLAY THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY LOOKS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REDEVELOP. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WOULD BE LOW ON MONDAY, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER
LOW COMES INTO NORTHWESTERN AZ. THE ORIENTATION, TRACK, AND SPEED OF
THIS UPPER LOW ARE STILL GETTING HASHED OUT BY MODEL DIFFERENCES,
BUT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS POINT TOWARD PRECIPITATION
FAVORING NORTHERN NM ZONES TUESDAY ONWARD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE ALSO PUTS HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH INDICATIONS THAT
WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY, PENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
WINDS HAVE SETTLED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED
NORTHEASTERN AREAS AND WILL STIR UP GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN AS IT
ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TO MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH DAWN AND THE MID
MORNING HOURS. A FEW LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, LEADING TO ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS TIME. LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE AWAY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING IN DIRECTION OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHEAST HIGHLAND AREAS (KLVS TO KRTN) OBSERVING
HIGHEST GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT WED APR 29 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NM ZONES THIS MORNING
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING. THE FRONT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
INTO EASTERN ZONES WITH SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT RISES BEING OBSERVED.
THIS WILL BOOST HUMIDITY ENOUGH TO KEEP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AT BAY
FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. HOWEVER, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH VEERING WINDS IN THE
PLAINS LEADING TO A CONVERGENCE OF SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE I-25 CORRIDOR (NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON).
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL AGAIN IN THIS AREA, AND THIS WILL INDUCE
MARGINALLY OR LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS, AS HIGHER GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH WILL ALSO BE JUXTAPOSED.
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM IS THEN ON TRACK TO CATCH A WELCOME BREAK
FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A PAIR OF TROUGHS
ALOFT MOVE OVERHEAD AND A COOL, MOIST AIRMASS ENTERS THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL YIELD A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NM ALONG WITH HEFTY, WET SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF NM WILL NOT FARE AS WELL,
BUT SHOULD STILL OBSERVE WETTING RAIN OF 0.1 TO 0.3 INCH IN MANY
LOCALES. WIND CONCERNS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO AN EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WIND EVENT THURSDAY (PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENING), BUT
THE RISING HUMIDITY SHOULD OFFSET ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL NOT FULLY DIMINISH. LIGHTER WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. BREEZES COULD
START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY DUE TO AN
UPSTREAM LOW, BUT WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT FORESEEN
AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD START TO CHANGE INTO TUESDAY, AS A DRY SLOT
AND STRONGER WINDS BEGIN WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER
THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF NEXT
WEEK'S LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 40 70 41 / 0 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 68 28 66 34 / 0 0 30 50
CUBA............................ 68 36 66 37 / 0 0 20 70
GALLUP.......................... 69 34 68 32 / 0 0 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 66 36 65 35 / 0 0 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 71 34 70 38 / 0 0 20 50
QUEMADO......................... 70 39 67 38 / 0 0 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 73 47 69 42 / 0 0 20 60
DATIL........................... 70 42 66 39 / 0 0 20 50
RESERVE......................... 76 37 73 40 / 0 0 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 79 42 77 45 / 0 0 30 50
CHAMA........................... 61 30 60 29 / 0 0 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 45 64 37 / 0 0 50 80
PECOS........................... 68 39 61 35 / 0 10 70 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 36 61 31 / 10 20 70 90
RED RIVER....................... 55 30 48 25 / 20 30 80 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 25 52 28 / 10 30 90 90
TAOS............................ 69 32 65 33 / 0 20 70 90
MORA............................ 68 34 56 32 / 0 20 80 90
ESPANOLA........................ 76 42 71 41 / 0 5 50 80
SANTA FE........................ 69 44 64 38 / 0 5 60 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 42 66 40 / 0 0 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 50 73 44 / 0 0 30 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 47 74 46 / 0 0 30 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 46 77 48 / 0 0 20 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 49 75 46 / 0 0 20 80
BELEN........................... 81 44 77 48 / 0 0 20 70
BERNALILLO...................... 79 47 75 45 / 0 0 30 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 81 42 77 47 / 0 0 20 70
CORRALES........................ 80 47 77 46 / 0 0 20 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 44 77 48 / 0 0 20 70
PLACITAS........................ 74 48 70 43 / 0 0 30 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 48 75 45 / 0 0 20 80
SOCORRO......................... 84 50 79 48 / 0 0 20 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 44 67 38 / 0 0 40 80
TIJERAS......................... 72 44 69 40 / 0 0 40 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 39 68 38 / 0 0 40 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 34 69 37 / 0 0 40 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 39 60 34 / 0 0 50 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 73 42 69 39 / 0 0 40 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 73 44 69 40 / 0 0 40 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 50 71 44 / 0 0 30 80
RUIDOSO......................... 70 48 64 39 / 0 0 40 80
CAPULIN......................... 60 33 44 31 / 40 60 90 90
RATON........................... 66 35 49 34 / 40 50 90 90
SPRINGER........................ 68 38 53 35 / 20 40 90 90
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 37 56 34 / 0 10 80 90
CLAYTON......................... 66 39 50 36 / 20 60 80 90
ROY............................. 68 39 51 35 / 20 40 90 90
CONCHAS......................... 77 44 58 41 / 5 20 70 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 44 59 40 / 0 5 60 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 46 58 42 / 5 20 70 90
CLOVIS.......................... 76 47 60 41 / 5 5 60 90
PORTALES........................ 78 47 61 43 / 5 5 50 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 78 47 64 43 / 0 5 50 90
ROSWELL......................... 84 54 74 50 / 0 0 40 80
PICACHO......................... 80 49 69 45 / 0 0 40 80
ELK............................. 81 48 71 42 / 0 0 40 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ213>215-227.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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