488
FXUS65 KABQ 311119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SOME STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE SURFACE, AND A
RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEAVING
A LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM (WIND SPEEDS REDUCING
TO 10 TO 20 KT AT 700 MB). GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN THIS
FLOW, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS, BUT WILL NOT BE VERY WELL
ORGANIZED WITH A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS LIGHT TO
MODERATE (5 TO 15 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS).
RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM WITH ANY LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS MOSTLY STAYING JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE MOISTURE WILL MIX OUT SLIGHTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S OVER LINCOLN,
GUADALUPE, AND QUAY COUNTIES, AS WELL AS POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND BRIEF STORMS IN THESE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ELSEWHERE, BUT WITH
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE AND BOOST TEMPERATURES UP ANOTHER
COUPLE DEGREES, THIS COULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND SECONDARILY THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, TO REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH VERY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS AND SOME
WEAK VIRGA DEVELOPING. MEASURABLE RAIN WOULD BE HARD TO COME BY
ANYWHERE MONDAY, BUT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN COUNTY WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCES TO RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
THE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO WEST
TX AND EASTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE ALSO
TRYING TO CREEP UP THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MOISTURE IS
NOT MODELED TO MIX OUT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM WITH MOST OF IT REACHING UPPER 40’S TO LOW 50’S
DEWPOINTS (DEG F) WHILE PWATS SOAR TO 0.75 TO 1.2 INCH WITH MORE
SUBDUED VALUES REACHING BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE INTRODUCTION OF THE MOISTURE
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND IN TYPICAL LATE-JUNE-
FASHION, THE OUTFLOWS WILL HELP PUSH THE MOISTURE FARTHER WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS MODEL CONSENSUS FOR
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, BUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES ARE SHOWN TO UNDERGO A CESSATION OF
STORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE RATHER STABLE
AND SHROUDED IN DEBRIS CLOUDS, THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS INITIATING FARTHER WEST AND
PROPAGATING ALONG OUTFLOWS FARTHER WEST THAN TUESDAY. THERE WOULD
BE A GENTLE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY,
INCHING INTO THE GULF OF CA AS A VERY WEAK CLOSED LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INTRODUCE LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT,
KEEPING THE SHEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT, BUT ENOUGH VEERING WILL BE
PRESENT WHERE SURFACE FLOW STAYS EASTERLY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY. RAINFALL RATES WOULD BE HIGH IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE (1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR) WHILE
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WOULD QUICKLY MORPH TO
HIGHER BASED CELLS WITH LESS EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
THE FATE OF THE GULF OF CA LOW BEGINS TO LOSE MODEL CONSENSUS
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT ALL MEMBERS SUGGEST IT WILL LIFT
INLAND AND NORTHEASTWARD, CROSSING NM AT SOME POINT IN THE MIDDLE
OF THIS TIME RANGE. THIS WILL INTRODUCE CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS
ALOFT, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION PANS OUT. THIS LEAVES MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
DEPENDENT ON LOW LAYER MOISTURE. PLENTY LOOKS TO BE LEFT BEHIND
FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION INITIATED VIA DIURNAL HEATING WITH
NO CLEAR CUT SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO ADD ANY OTHER TRIGGERS. IN
FACT, WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE MODELED BY MOST MEMBERS
EACH DAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM HAS INCREASED POPS FOR
THURSDAY WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A DAY-BY-DAY TREND OF
LOWERING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE RECYCLING OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOSES EFFICIENCY. THIS SUGGESTS VERY MINIMAL
CHANCES BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
HAVING EXITED AND DRIER, MORE SUBSIDENT AIR FILLING BEHIND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES, AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT REDUCE TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAKER AND LESS
PROMINENT LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHS EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CAUSE SURFACE/20FT WIND SPEEDS TO REDUCE BOTH DAYS, YET BREEZY AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM
A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH (5 TO
15% EACH DAY)IS FORECAST TODAY WITH LESS EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OBSERVE
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS, DRY THUNDERSTORMS, AND/OR VIRGA.
THE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES A STARK CHANGE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THOUGH, AS THE MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF ARRIVES,
BRINGING WETTING STORMS, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND MODERATED
TEMPERATURES. WETTING STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH STORMS TENDING TO BE LESS
EFFICIENT AT RAINFALL PRODUCTION FROM THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. UNFORTUNATELY, AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND SURROUNDING
HIGHLANDS WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY GETTING ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL DUE
TO FEWER, DRIER STORMS. THEREFORE, NEW FIRE IGNITIONS FROM
LIGHTNING WILL POSE CONCERN IN WESTERN ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 83 47 89 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 80 36 85 41 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 80 46 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 82 40 84 42 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 80 44 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 85 45 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 83 46 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 84 55 86 58 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 82 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 87 43 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 91 48 95 50 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 75 38 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 81 47 85 52 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 47 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 74 38 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 81 44 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 81 46 83 52 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 87 50 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 81 54 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 51 87 57 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 62 91 65 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 56 94 61 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 91 54 94 58 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 88 57 93 63 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 53 93 58 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 90 57 93 63 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 54 93 59 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 85 58 89 63 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 94 60 97 64 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 86 51 90 55 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 45 89 53 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 52 87 56 / 0 0 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 60 90 62 / 0 0 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 82 55 83 57 / 0 0 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 77 46 82 50 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 83 46 87 51 / 0 0 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 85 45 88 52 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 47 86 53 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 85 53 89 58 / 0 0 10 10
ROY............................. 82 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 91 55 94 60 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 60 97 63 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 94 60 95 63 / 0 0 20 20
PORTALES........................ 95 61 96 63 / 0 0 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 58 94 61 / 0 0 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 97 64 96 66 / 0 0 20 20
PICACHO......................... 92 56 91 59 / 0 0 40 20
ELK............................. 92 56 92 58 / 0 0 40 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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