793
FXUS65 KABQ 061905
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
105 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A 500MB HEIGHT OF 598DAM,
WHICH IS A NEW CALENDAR DAY RECORD AND CORRELATES WITH RECORD
HEAT AT THE SURFACE. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND CENTER OVER
THE UT/AZ BORDER, WITH ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
FORECAST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, ESPANOLA AND MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEYS. BOTH FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE ARE CONTINUING
THEIR LONGEST ALL-TIME CONSECUTIVE 100+ DEGREE DAY STREAKS FOR
THE MONTH OF AUGUST, WITH TODAY BEING DAY 4 AT KABQ AND DAY 5 AT
FARMINGTON.
THE LATEST NAM IS ADVERTISING DCAPE VALUES OF 2,000-2,500J/KG
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM LATER TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY,
WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR A CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND THE
SPC HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN A HIGHER PWAT
ENVIRONMENT AND MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF TODAY, WITH A CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM.
LASTLY, THE HRRR IS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE IMPACTS
ACROSS NORTHERN NM FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE
MORE NOTABLE CONCENTRATIONS NEAR THE CO BORDER. THAT SAID,
CONCENTRATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
AIR QUALITY ALERT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL MOVE BACK SOUTHEAST TO OVER WEST CENTRAL NM
AND WEAKEN TO NEAR 595DAM AT 500MB FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND
MORE HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AND MIDDLE RGV. DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OVER SOAKING RAINS, EXCEPT FOR OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHERE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING IS LIKELY DUE TO A HIGHER PWAT
ATMOSPHERE. THE FORECAST TRENDS NEXT WEEK WILL BE FOR DECREASING
HEAT IMPACTS AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AS THE MONSOON
HIGH WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST TO INTO TX.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH ISO/SCT SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT LOW PROBABILITIES OF
IMPACTS AT TAF SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW MAY IMPACT THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF
AIRSPACE BETWEEN 01-05Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. UNUSUALLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR EARLY
AUGUST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM AS THE MONSOON HIGH
DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A MORE NORMAL MONSOON
PATTERN SHAPES UP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 101 66 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 99 56 98 / 0 0 5 0
CUBA............................ 58 95 60 94 / 0 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 58 96 59 95 / 10 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 57 91 57 90 / 20 10 0 40
GRANTS.......................... 57 96 59 95 / 10 5 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 61 91 59 90 / 20 20 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 66 92 64 90 / 20 20 40 5
DATIL........................... 60 88 58 86 / 20 30 20 20
RESERVE......................... 59 95 58 93 / 20 50 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 64 98 62 97 / 20 60 20 40
CHAMA........................... 53 91 55 90 / 0 10 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 93 63 91 / 5 20 5 20
PECOS........................... 57 92 57 91 / 10 40 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 91 57 90 / 10 20 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 49 81 49 81 / 10 40 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 85 42 86 / 10 40 0 30
TAOS............................ 58 95 57 94 / 10 20 0 10
MORA............................ 53 89 54 89 / 10 40 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 66 100 64 99 / 5 10 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 64 93 62 92 / 10 30 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 96 60 95 / 10 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 100 68 98 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 100 68 98 / 10 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 102 67 100 / 10 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 101 68 99 / 10 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 67 101 66 99 / 10 5 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 102 66 100 / 10 10 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 100 64 99 / 10 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 67 103 67 100 / 10 10 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 101 64 99 / 10 5 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 98 66 96 / 10 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 102 68 100 / 10 10 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 102 69 101 / 10 10 40 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 94 61 92 / 10 30 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 64 94 62 92 / 10 30 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 96 59 94 / 10 40 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 97 55 95 / 10 40 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 92 59 90 / 10 50 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 94 59 93 / 20 40 40 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 92 59 90 / 20 50 40 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 94 64 92 / 20 30 30 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 86 58 85 / 20 30 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 57 89 58 90 / 20 20 20 20
RATON........................... 56 93 56 93 / 10 30 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 57 95 55 96 / 10 30 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 91 56 91 / 10 40 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 97 65 97 / 20 10 20 0
ROY............................. 61 92 60 93 / 20 20 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 100 65 100 / 30 10 50 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 96 64 95 / 30 20 50 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 101 65 100 / 30 5 50 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 99 66 98 / 10 0 20 0
PORTALES........................ 69 99 67 99 / 5 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 99 67 98 / 20 0 40 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 101 70 100 / 0 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 67 96 65 95 / 10 5 10 0
ELK............................. 62 93 60 92 / 10 10 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-207-217-219.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ201-207-217-
219.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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