023
FXUS65 KABQ 061902
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
- A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO
55 MPH.
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BRING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL POSE A RISK TO NEWLY
BUDDING PLANTS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION OVER NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN NM PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED SHOWER AND
ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NM
AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING IN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AND BRISK CONDITIONS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A LATE SEASON
FREEZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NM AND AREAS THAT HAVEN'T
REACHED THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE (OR ARE CLOSE) HAVE BEEN
INCLUDED IN A FREEZE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION LATER
TODAY, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT
THIS TIME. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
A WEAK BAJA LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
PRESSURE HEIGHTS ON THE UPTREND AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. DAYTIME MIXING OF MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ON SATURDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAY CREATE AN EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A
LIMITED ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRESSURE HEIGHTS
WILL TREND UP MORE MON/TUE AS A 590DAM 500MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER
AZ AND SHIFTS EAST OVER NM, BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. ALBUQUERQUE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 90S NEXT MON/TUE, WHILE ROSWELL SOARS TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, OPENING UP THE SOUTHERN DOOR FOR MOISTURE AND A POTENTIAL
ROUND OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT TAF SITES, BUT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN GUSTY NW-N WINDS. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATER AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35KTS.
LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STATUS/FOG
ACROSS EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH AND
EAST OF KROW. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTS. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRYING AND WARMING IS FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WIND CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF THE RAPID SPREAD OF
FIRE. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW WETTING SHOWERS OR
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. CONTINUED WARMING IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 31 72 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 24 69 29 78 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 27 67 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 70 31 79 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 29 68 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 72 34 79 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 69 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 75 35 83 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 79 39 87 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 63 30 71 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 67 43 74 / 10 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 28 68 37 75 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 64 36 71 / 40 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 21 54 31 61 / 50 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 61 25 68 / 30 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 21 68 31 75 / 20 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 68 37 73 / 30 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 31 73 40 81 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 67 41 75 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 70 38 79 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 72 48 82 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 73 45 83 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 76 43 86 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 75 45 84 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 75 40 85 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 37 75 44 85 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 75 39 85 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 38 76 44 85 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 75 40 85 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 38 70 46 80 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 75 45 84 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 78 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 67 43 76 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 68 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 70 38 78 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 25 72 30 80 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 68 39 75 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 69 40 78 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 69 41 77 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 73 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 36 68 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 22 62 35 68 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 67 33 74 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 23 69 34 76 / 40 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 69 37 75 / 40 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 70 43 76 / 70 0 0 0
ROY............................. 28 68 39 76 / 60 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 77 44 84 / 60 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 75 42 81 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 34 77 48 85 / 50 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 77 47 87 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 37 78 47 88 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 35 76 45 87 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 76 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 39 73 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 37 74 42 81 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ201-217-218.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NMZ228>231.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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