960
FXUS65 KABQ 241121 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
- UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS DAYTIME AND
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALTHOUGH LOW, WILL MAKE A LONG AWAITED
RETURN TODAY ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN SPREAD EAST
INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
BELOW 10,000FT WITH ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED TO
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BEHIND A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TODAY, BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS THAT WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO PRODUCE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM. PWATS WILL SURGE WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR DAILY RECORD VALUES, BUT WITH
FORCING TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AT AROUND 10-11KFT, SO NO
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
NM. DESPITE INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS AT A
NUMBER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM LOCALES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
WEAK OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT THE
00Z MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE REALLY BACKED-DOWN THE QPF AND
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO COME-BY. OTHERWISE,
STRONG WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH
DOWNSLOPE WARMING BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR DAILY
RECORDS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
SIMILAR SETUP ON FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WINDY CONDITONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
RISE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF CA, IS FORECAST TO
FILL AND MOVE TOWARD THE REGION ON SATURDAY. BUT, THAT IS WHEN
THE MODELS DEPART WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THAT FEATURE AND
OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO AGREE ON A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, SENDING A STRONGER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ACROSS NM AND BRINGING MUCH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) THAT A PACIFIC
MOISTURE TAP WILL REDEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY,
INTERACTING WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND CREATING AN ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SCENARIO WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION. IF
THAT SCENARIO WORKS-OUT AND GIVEN THE COLD AIRMASS MODELED BEHIND
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, WE CAN NOT RULE OUT WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NM. THAT'S A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO, BUT ONE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WITH MORE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY NEEDED TO INCREASE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT,
EXCEPT FOR A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS LATER TODAY AT KGUP AND
KTCC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH IMPROVING VENTILATION THANKS TO
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. PACIFIC
MOISTURE ADVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT LEAST
CHRISTMAS DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THU/FRI, WITH HUMIDITY BEING
THE MAIN LIMITER. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY, BRINING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AND BE MOSTLY POOR BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT MAY
INTERACT WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 41 59 37 / 10 30 50 20
DULCE........................... 58 34 55 32 / 20 30 70 40
CUBA............................ 57 35 58 32 / 5 10 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 58 34 58 33 / 10 10 30 5
EL MORRO........................ 58 36 58 32 / 10 10 30 5
GRANTS.......................... 61 34 62 29 / 10 10 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 38 61 33 / 10 10 30 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 42 62 38 / 5 5 10 0
DATIL........................... 58 39 58 35 / 10 10 20 0
RESERVE......................... 62 35 63 30 / 40 20 40 10
GLENWOOD........................ 66 36 66 33 / 40 30 40 5
CHAMA........................... 52 33 48 31 / 10 20 60 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 40 58 37 / 0 5 20 5
PECOS........................... 61 39 59 36 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 37 54 34 / 0 0 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 49 30 48 29 / 0 5 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 32 52 32 / 0 0 10 5
TAOS............................ 59 33 58 32 / 0 0 10 5
MORA............................ 63 37 60 35 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 63 34 64 32 / 0 5 20 5
SANTA FE........................ 58 38 58 35 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 36 60 33 / 0 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 43 62 41 / 0 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 42 63 40 / 0 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 37 65 34 / 0 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 42 64 37 / 0 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 66 39 65 34 / 0 5 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 40 64 37 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 35 65 31 / 0 5 10 0
CORRALES........................ 66 40 64 36 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 37 65 32 / 0 5 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 41 61 40 / 0 5 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 42 63 38 / 0 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 44 67 39 / 0 5 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 42 58 38 / 0 5 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 42 59 38 / 0 5 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 40 60 37 / 0 5 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 65 34 63 32 / 0 0 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 38 59 35 / 0 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 41 62 38 / 0 0 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 40 63 37 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 45 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 65 41 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 65 37 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 34 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 34 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 41 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 75 45 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 71 40 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 77 46 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 45 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 75 44 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 76 42 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 42 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 76 42 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 77 45 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 43 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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