650
FXUS65 KABQ 121951
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
151 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 148 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN COME BACK AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS MAY
NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.
- GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND A DRY STORM OR TWO WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS IN RECEPTIVE FUELS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
IT FEELS LIKE SPRING OUT THERE TODAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S. IT'S A BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT
QUITE PLEASANT IN MOST AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST AND A FEW CUMULUS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY OUT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH. PWATS IN THE
0.3-0.4" RANGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE
CLOUD BASES WILL BE SO HIGH, RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND
THROUGH THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS, THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING
THEY CREATE WILL CREATE LOCALIZED GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BLOWING DUST
OVER DUST SOURCES. LIS IN THE -1 TO -2C RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD PRODUCE A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AROUND THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN NORTHEASTERN
NM. THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN AZ ON MONDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN NM. TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND AND
THAT COULD TAKE A WHILE FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
SHOWERS WILL PEAK IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES IN FROM ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO DROP BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT SINCE DAYTIME HEATING WILL
MORE THAN CANCEL OUT ITS STRENGTH. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY LOSE STRENGTH AS IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE LIFTING
TROUGH. NONETHELESS, THE DRY PACIFIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY TREK ACROSS THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST, USHERING IN A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS. WEAK, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE US A BREAK FROM
THE GUSTY WINDS BEFORE THEY TREND UP AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS STILL KEEPS THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE NORTH
IN COLORADO ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, WITH VERY LIGHT PRECIP. IN THE FAR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. EVEN THE DEEPER SOLUTION PROPOSED BY
AROUND 25% OF MODELS KEEPS ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1". REGARDLESS OF PRECIP.
AMOUNTS, ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. ACCORDING TO THE NBM, THERE
IS CURRENTLY A 70% CHANCE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN FARMINGTON ON
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A 60% CHANCE SUNDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IS AROUND 50% IN SANTA FE. IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS IF YOU HAVE
GARDENING/AGRICULTURE INTERESTS. BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH, ALTHOUGH THE IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
BRISK SW BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z AND PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
03Z THIS EVENING IN MOST AREAS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE, WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS MID-AFTERNOON IN TYPICALLY
WINDY AREAS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING VFR CIGS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL NM TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE CONTINUED
DRYING WILL LIKELY CANCEL OUT THE BENEFITS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURRED ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE PRESENT (AT LEAST BRIEFLY) IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, PRECIPITATION WAS MORE INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD IN
THESE AREAS WHICH HELPED TO WET FUELS. GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A STRIKE OR TWO
OF DRY LIGHTNING COULD OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON
TUESDAY IN EASTERN NM AS WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO
MONDAY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERN NM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THE FRONT DRYING OUT AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 9,000
FEET IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
AFTER A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS TREND UP AGAIN LATE WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN AT LEAST EASTERN NM BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY , WITH THURSDAY THE MORE CONCERNING DAY CONSIDERING
THAT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AROUND MUCH OF THE REGION. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR FAR
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES,
LIGHTER WINDS, AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 67 41 57 / 5 20 50 50
DULCE........................... 32 63 33 52 / 5 30 70 80
CUBA............................ 40 62 34 54 / 5 20 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 34 62 33 54 / 0 20 50 40
EL MORRO........................ 34 60 33 52 / 0 20 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 35 66 34 58 / 0 20 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 38 62 35 57 / 0 20 40 20
MAGDALENA....................... 46 67 41 63 / 0 10 20 10
DATIL........................... 39 61 37 57 / 0 20 30 20
RESERVE......................... 36 67 37 62 / 0 20 50 10
GLENWOOD........................ 40 72 41 67 / 5 30 50 10
CHAMA........................... 30 55 29 45 / 5 30 80 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 62 40 55 / 5 20 60 60
PECOS........................... 38 64 37 59 / 5 20 50 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 60 34 52 / 5 10 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 31 50 29 44 / 5 10 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 57 29 51 / 5 10 50 40
TAOS............................ 34 64 34 56 / 5 10 50 40
MORA............................ 37 63 35 58 / 5 10 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 43 69 41 63 / 5 10 50 40
SANTA FE........................ 41 64 39 58 / 5 20 60 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 67 40 61 / 5 10 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 71 44 66 / 5 20 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 73 46 67 / 5 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 75 46 70 / 0 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 73 46 67 / 0 10 30 30
BELEN........................... 49 75 45 71 / 0 10 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 50 74 46 68 / 5 20 40 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 75 45 70 / 0 10 30 20
CORRALES........................ 50 74 46 69 / 5 10 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 75 46 70 / 0 10 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 48 69 44 63 / 5 20 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 73 45 68 / 5 10 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 52 77 47 74 / 0 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 65 40 61 / 5 20 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 44 67 41 63 / 5 20 50 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 68 40 64 / 5 10 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 69 39 66 / 0 10 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 66 38 62 / 0 10 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 68 41 66 / 0 10 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 68 42 65 / 0 10 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 71 48 68 / 0 10 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 45 64 44 62 / 0 10 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 38 66 39 63 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 36 69 36 65 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 39 71 38 68 / 0 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 67 39 63 / 0 5 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 46 75 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 71 43 68 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 49 80 49 77 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 75 47 72 / 0 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 82 51 79 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 51 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 51 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 80 50 78 / 0 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 53 83 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 51 76 50 74 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 47 74 48 72 / 0 5 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ104.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page