719
FXUS65 KABQ 041726 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
ANOTHER DREARY AND RAW DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES
FUNNELING OVER THE STATE. WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COMPARED TO TODAY RETURN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONDITIONS CLEAR
UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY DECEMBER. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN FOR WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE
FINALLY MAKES EASTERN PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE WEDNESDAY, WITH VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE
TUSAS. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY. THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS MOMENT
WITH CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
BROAD AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED FROM WEST CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE MIDDLE
RGV TOWARD SANTA ROSA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MORESO MONDAY WITH
SHOWERS ON MONDAY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NM
AND SOUTHWEST CATRON COUNTY. MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
EARLY THIS MORNING FOG WAS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE AND THE VARIABLE VISIBILITIES WITH IMPROVEMENT DUE
TO RAINFALL, DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SUDDEN ENCOUNTERS WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THIS MORNING AND SLOW DOWN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
WARM CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO EARLY DECEMBER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AND DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TUESDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA FINALLY MAKES
NOTICEABLE EASTWARD PROGRESS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
ACROSS THESE ZONES, DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND
7000-7500 FT DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY SE NEW
MEXICO WILL REMAIN WARM (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE, WITH VALLEY SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP EVEN FURTHER TO 6000-7000 FT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE TUSAS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC
LIFT. CURRENT STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS ZONE LOOK TO BE
AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. THE TYPICAL BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THANKS TO RIDGING
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE USUAL
VALLEY INVERSIONS. LOWS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE, BUT COLDER
COMPARED TO THE PRIOR DAYS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AT THIS POINT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, DRY, AND
SHALLOW AND HAS THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA COME SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FEATURE DEEPENING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO
DEPICTING THESE THREE POSSIBILITIES. IN THE END, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW AND FURTHER CHANGES AND
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM, MOSTLY FROM FG AND BR. A BAND OF -SHRA REMAINS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL NM STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OVER KONM. SLOW AND ERRATIC IMPROVEMENTS OF CIGS AND VIS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AMDS WILL BE NEEDED TO
ADDRESS NEAR TERM CHANGES IN CATEGORIES AS A RESULT. A RETURN OF
MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR FROM FG IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CLEAR MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SKIES CONDITIONS BECOME HOWEVER. MORE FAVORABLE AVN CONDITIONS
WITH VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH EASTERN NM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022
WETTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOCUSING ON WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. DRIER
AIR TO BEGIN DISPLACING THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MORESO MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW. ON MONDAY WEST WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 40-50 MPH
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE I-40 CORRIDOR OVER
EAST CENTRAL NM BUT DECREASE MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
OFFERS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TUSAS AND
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF WIND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, FORECAST
HUMIDITIES AT THIS TIME ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF EXCURSIONS OF SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NM, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY IMPROVE TO GOOD OR
BETTER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 35 54 33 / 30 20 10 10
DULCE........................... 49 32 49 26 / 50 40 40 30
CUBA............................ 49 36 50 31 / 60 40 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 52 36 52 31 / 50 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 37 51 31 / 70 30 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 50 34 55 27 / 60 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 52 36 55 31 / 90 20 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 41 57 35 / 70 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 37 53 32 / 80 20 5 0
RESERVE......................... 56 39 59 31 / 90 30 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 57 45 61 40 / 90 40 20 0
CHAMA........................... 45 30 43 25 / 50 40 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 38 51 32 / 40 20 5 5
PECOS........................... 51 37 53 33 / 30 20 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 35 48 29 / 20 20 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 47 35 45 24 / 20 20 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 34 45 23 / 20 20 5 5
TAOS............................ 49 34 50 28 / 20 20 5 10
MORA............................ 53 37 53 30 / 20 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 35 57 32 / 30 20 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 51 38 53 34 / 40 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 37 56 31 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 42 56 38 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 42 59 35 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 38 60 34 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 41 59 36 / 50 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 42 63 32 / 60 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 41 60 35 / 40 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 40 61 31 / 60 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 41 60 35 / 50 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 41 62 32 / 60 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 41 56 37 / 50 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 41 59 36 / 50 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 43 65 36 / 60 20 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 39 51 35 / 50 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 40 54 34 / 50 30 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 38 54 31 / 40 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 36 56 28 / 40 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 38 54 31 / 40 20 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 41 55 33 / 60 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 42 57 34 / 60 20 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 47 61 41 / 50 30 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 44 56 39 / 40 40 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 54 33 58 28 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 34 61 26 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 35 59 26 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 38 58 34 / 20 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 39 64 29 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 56 37 62 31 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 43 62 38 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 44 64 39 / 20 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 46 70 39 / 10 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 44 68 41 / 10 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 62 45 70 41 / 10 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 46 68 39 / 20 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 46 72 43 / 10 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 48 67 42 / 20 20 5 0
ELK............................. 65 48 65 42 / 20 20 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...24
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