659
FXUS65 KABQ 050735
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 132 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE ROBUST MONSOON HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY,
CONTINUING NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE 500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND
595DM (OBSERVED ON THE 00Z ABQ SOUNDING), WHICH IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. THIS CORRELATES DIRECTLY TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AS THE HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS SIT OVER
WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES ARE ON TAP TODAY FOR
THE ABQ, FARMINGTON, AND GALLUP AREA. DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY, THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO INCLUDED IN TODAY'S ADVISORY
GIVEN THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES BOUNCE UP A FEW DEGREES.
CONTINUE TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED
PERIODS OF TIME.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOOKING AT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, A FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGH-BASED IN
NATURE (OVER 1KM ABOVE THE SURFACE), AND ALONG WITH FORECAST WELL-
MIXED LAYERS, THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID EVAPORATIVE COOLING
RESULTING IN STRONG WINDS. INSTABILITY IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE LOOKS
MORE MEAGER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, SO LARGE HAIL SEEMS TO BE A
SECONDARY THREAT. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE IT OUT IN ANY STRONG UPDRAFT
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST NM, STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AND DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST (FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH). STORMS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
ARE LIKELY TO WORK WITH LESS SHEAR, BUT STILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN ANY OF THE STRONGER CORES.
THE FLOODING THREAT LOOKS LOW OVERALL, THOUGH SENSITIVE AREAS SUCH
AS BURN SCARS ARE STILL MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RUNOFF. HREF
AND REFS LPMM VALUES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/RUIDOSO AREA, SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF BURN SCAR FLOODING. STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY 9PM-12AM, WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS THEREAFTER.
NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR THURSDAY: HEAT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM,
AND STORMS INITIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN MOVING OFF INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF
STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, SO WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH
FOR SENSITIVE SPOTS WHEN IT COMES TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HREF
AND REFS LPMM AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS
CAMS OVER THE NEXT FEW SYNOPTIC RUNS. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT LOOKS
TO DWINDLE ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE
GUST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM ONCE AGAIN, WHERE THE CORRIDOR OF BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS: THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, PLACING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER MUCH OF
NM, AND KEEPING THE HEAT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NM. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN SEEING STORMS, ALBEIT WITH VARYING COVERAGES. THE HIGH LOOKS
TO STRENGTHEN A DECAMETER OR TWO BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD PUT
A LIMIT ON THE STORMS THAT WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THUS, POPS ARE LOWEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (THOUGH STILL LIKELY
TO SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS). GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES
TO SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. THIS IS BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT
BACK FURTHER EAST ALLOWING FOR MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING (AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS)
ARE DIFFERING ON WHETHER THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD OR WOBBLE BETWEEN THE CO/NM AND AZ/UT BORDER, AND ALSO
WHAT THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH WILL BE. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
SPELL OUT WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL END UP OVER THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTY, THE OVERALL
CONSISTENCY OF CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS SHOWS PROMISE IN MORE
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO/CONTINUING IN AREAS ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
SHRA AND TSRA REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NM AS OF 06Z AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY 09Z. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN AT A FEW CENTRAL NM TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS WANES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LLWS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM, MAINLY FROM KTCC TO KSXU, THROUGH 12Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM,
MAINLY AFTER 18-19Z, OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NM. A FEW STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME CENTRAL NM TAF SITES AND OTHER TERMINALS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHWEST NM THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND
SMALL HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE TO LIKELY IN STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OF CONCERN TOO, ESPECIALLY IF AREAS RECEIVE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS AND/OR ARE SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF
RAINFALL. HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN AREAWIDE, AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LASTLY, ERCS
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE THE 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE IN MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
NM, SO WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED, A
FIRE SPREADING RAPIDLY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN DRY AND
RECEPTIVE FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 65 101 65 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 97 54 98 53 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 95 61 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 97 59 95 58 / 0 5 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 91 57 90 57 / 10 10 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 96 60 95 59 / 10 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 91 61 90 59 / 20 20 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 91 65 91 64 / 30 10 30 5
DATIL........................... 88 60 87 58 / 50 20 50 10
RESERVE......................... 95 59 95 58 / 50 20 70 20
GLENWOOD........................ 99 63 99 63 / 50 20 70 30
CHAMA........................... 91 55 91 55 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 64 92 64 / 20 5 20 5
PECOS........................... 95 59 93 58 / 5 10 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 92 58 92 58 / 5 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 86 49 86 49 / 5 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 86 44 86 44 / 5 10 20 10
TAOS............................ 96 57 95 57 / 0 5 5 5
MORA............................ 91 55 90 54 / 10 10 30 5
ESPANOLA........................ 99 64 99 63 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 94 64 94 63 / 5 10 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 97 62 96 61 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 99 70 100 69 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 101 69 101 68 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 103 68 102 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 101 70 101 69 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 101 67 101 65 / 0 5 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 103 68 102 67 / 0 5 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 66 101 65 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 103 70 103 68 / 0 5 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 101 68 100 66 / 0 5 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 98 68 98 67 / 0 5 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 102 69 102 68 / 0 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 102 71 102 70 / 5 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 92 62 92 61 / 10 5 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 97 64 97 63 / 5 5 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 97 60 97 59 / 20 5 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 98 58 97 56 / 20 5 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 93 61 92 59 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 96 61 95 59 / 20 10 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 93 62 93 60 / 20 10 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 96 68 96 66 / 10 30 40 40
RUIDOSO......................... 88 62 88 59 / 50 20 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 89 56 89 58 / 40 30 30 10
RATON........................... 93 55 93 56 / 30 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 96 56 96 56 / 20 40 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 93 56 91 56 / 20 20 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 96 64 96 66 / 10 50 0 20
ROY............................. 93 61 92 61 / 10 50 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 101 68 100 68 / 5 30 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 66 95 65 / 10 20 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 69 100 68 / 0 10 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 98 69 98 68 / 0 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 98 71 99 70 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 70 98 69 / 0 10 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 101 73 101 72 / 0 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 96 67 96 66 / 5 10 10 10
ELK............................. 94 63 93 62 / 10 5 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-205-207-219-221.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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