939
FXUS65 KABQ 292025
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
225 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 217 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- DRY STORMS AND EVAPORATING SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER FAR EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
A TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TWO
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER TROUGHING. ONE IS CURRENTLY OVER
MONTANA AND LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE.
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHEAST NM OVERNIGHT AND IS
STILL AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. THE OTHER TROUGH IS OVER
CENTRAL CA. THIS ONE WILL CONTINUE VENTURE INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT OF
NORTHERN AZ AND SOUTHERN NV TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AS IT APPROACHES NEW
FROM THE WEST, IT WILL ALLOW FOR VEERING FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO,
DRAWING MOISTURE NORTH AND WESTWARD. FURTHERMORE, MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER OLD MEXICO TONIGHT, WITH A ROBUST
COLD POOL PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE
MORNING, CREATING A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND SURGING
DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE. AN AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM PRECIP. MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS AREA, WHICH WOULD HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT AND
IMPACT THE AFTERNOON'S CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE
SURGE AS FAR WEST AS THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWATS
ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER RGV AND THE NORTHERN MTNS ARE RIGHT NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE MID-
LEVELS, WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE (DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 40 TO 55 F). AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AMPLE DCAPE
TO GENERATE VERY STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. MOST AREAS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD IMPACT
OUTDOOR EVENTS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS.
THE DRYLINE WILL SETUP SOMEWHERE JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FOCUSING IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON WEDNESDAY (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS AND A GREATER RESULTANT
SEVERE THREAT. ACROSS WESTERN NM, IT WILL BE DRIER ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
WEAK TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE WEEK, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. IT WILL BE DRY AND HOT IN MOST AREAS,
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING AN AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, SLOWLY DRAWING MOISTURE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEPER MOISTURE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE SHOWING ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK, SUGGESTING AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST.
FURTHERMORE, WITH THE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL TREND DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, REDUCING THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
GUSTY WEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NM, BUT WINDS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE 700 MB JET EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN FAR SE NM, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS OFF TO THE SOUTH WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY
INTO SE NM AROUND 03Z, WITH THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH NEAR
CRITICAL HUMIDITIES IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE OF FIRES ARE BURNING
HOT, BUT OVERALL FIRE ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW IN MOST AREAS
CONSIDERING HOW MANY STARTS THERE HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK.
AN MCS OVER MEXICO WILL PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRINGES OF THIS MOISTURE (MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS) GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE
SURFACE (40 TO 50F) AND CONSIDERING MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE 700-500 MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DCAPE FOR THE
GENERATION OF VERY STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, WHICH
COULD IMPACT FIRE OPERATIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHILE THE DRYING TREND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WEST. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS
DECREASING. HUMIDITIES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND WINDS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ACROSS THE WEST SO THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS GENERALLY CALLING FOR WIDESPREAD NEAR TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. DRIER AIR ENTERS FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AND SEVERAL
HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN NORTHWEST NM. THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND HOT, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL TREND
WEAKER LATE WEEK, MITIGATING THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. LOW
STORM CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 90 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 42 85 42 86 / 0 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 54 84 52 85 / 0 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 84 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 51 88 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 84 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 86 59 87 / 0 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 88 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 78 43 80 / 0 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 84 59 84 / 0 10 20 0
PECOS........................... 56 85 53 85 / 0 20 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 82 52 82 / 0 5 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 73 44 73 / 0 5 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 78 41 78 / 0 5 10 0
TAOS............................ 50 85 49 84 / 0 5 10 0
MORA............................ 53 83 51 83 / 0 10 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 58 91 56 91 / 0 10 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 61 85 58 85 / 0 10 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 88 56 88 / 0 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 91 65 91 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 93 62 93 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 95 61 95 / 0 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 93 64 93 / 0 10 5 0
BELEN........................... 62 95 61 95 / 5 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 94 63 94 / 0 10 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 94 59 94 / 5 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 65 95 63 95 / 0 10 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 94 61 94 / 5 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 90 63 90 / 0 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 93 63 93 / 0 10 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 97 65 98 / 0 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 86 58 86 / 0 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 61 87 58 87 / 0 20 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 88 55 88 / 0 20 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 90 52 90 / 0 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 84 54 84 / 0 20 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 88 56 89 / 0 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 87 57 87 / 0 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 90 63 91 / 0 10 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 82 58 83 / 0 30 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 56 86 53 86 / 0 10 10 10
RATON........................... 55 89 52 89 / 0 20 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 55 90 54 90 / 0 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 86 53 86 / 0 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 65 95 62 94 / 0 20 5 10
ROY............................. 60 89 57 89 / 5 20 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 69 97 63 96 / 5 30 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 91 61 91 / 5 30 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 97 66 96 / 5 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 69 94 65 93 / 10 40 20 30
PORTALES........................ 71 95 65 94 / 10 40 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 95 64 95 / 5 30 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 73 97 67 97 / 10 20 10 20
PICACHO......................... 67 91 60 92 / 0 30 20 30
ELK............................. 64 89 58 90 / 5 20 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-109-123.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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