796  
FXUS65 KABQ 022100  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
300 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER FOURTH OF JULY  
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. A MIX OF DRY AND WET  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE WEST, WHILE STORMS WITH A GREATER  
WETTING FOOTPRINT WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY BE  
STRONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.  
STORM COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY  
INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING  
WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...  
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER NM TODAY AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EVOLVES WESTWARD INTO WEST TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS IMPROVING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER  
SOUTHEAST AZ. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM  
MOSTLY DRY TO WETTER STORMS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE  
REGION. STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE  
LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FROM ANY DIRECT HITS  
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY BULLISH CONTINUING ISOLD SHOWERS  
OVER EASTERN NM THRU TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONSOLIDATE WESTWARD INTO A 593DM  
HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NM ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE A  
35-45 KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTING THRU THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE  
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
IS LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NM WHERE PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.5". A  
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXITING EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM ON  
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND SUBSEQUENT GAP WINDS  
INTO THE RGV THRU FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...  
HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER TX WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE LAND  
OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE WEEKEND, ENHANCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWING  
FOR DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER  
IN AROUND NORTHWEST NM IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH, ALLOWING FOR A MIX  
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  
FURTHER EAST, WHERE MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE, STORMS WILL HAVE A  
WETTER FOOTPRINT. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST, STRONGER STORMS  
MAY CONTAIN HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NE WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE  
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO, CREATING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PATTERN SUNDAY. IF THIS FEEDBACK  
LOOP CAN BE MAINTAINED, MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR  
ADDITIONAL STORMS ON MONDAY.  
 
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM WILL  
NOT EJECT EAST AND INSTEAD BE NESTLED IN PLACE BY THE BUILDING OF A  
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AS WE MOVE  
INTO NEXT WEEK BUT LACK RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FURTHER INTO THE  
WEEK, 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN WITH  
RISING HEIGHTS ENCROACHING ON AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DM. THE 12Z RUN  
HOWEVER LOOKS LESS BULLISH WITH THE HIGH'S INTENSITY AND EVEN  
SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE GAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL  
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING  
CONFIDENCE WHETHER THE MONSOON TYPE PATTERN WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME  
THE DRIER SYNOPTIC SETUP.  
 
GUYER/12  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN NM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ. STORMS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WETTER EACH  
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST  
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN EVOLVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY OVER  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER  
AIR OVER AZ TO FILTER BACK INTO THAT AREA. MEANWHILE, ISOLD STORMS  
WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS  
THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OVER NM BY MID WEEK AND TREND TEMPS  
ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND PLACEMENT OF  
THE UPPER HIGH DETERIORATES BY LATER NEXT WEEK.  
 
GUYER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO NM TODAY WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF  
SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. ANY DIRECT HITS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WITH BRIEF RAIN. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE  
NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KT. THE FOCUS FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SHRA/TSRA  
WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WHERE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS  
ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL TAPER  
OFF THRU SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 58 94 60 94 / 5 10 5 10  
DULCE........................... 47 89 49 89 / 5 30 20 20  
CUBA............................ 55 88 55 88 / 10 30 20 20  
GALLUP.......................... 52 90 54 91 / 10 20 5 10  
EL MORRO........................ 49 85 51 86 / 20 20 10 20  
GRANTS.......................... 53 89 53 90 / 10 20 10 20  
QUEMADO......................... 53 85 54 87 / 20 20 10 20  
MAGDALENA....................... 60 88 62 89 / 20 30 20 30  
DATIL........................... 54 85 56 85 / 20 30 10 30  
RESERVE......................... 50 92 51 93 / 20 20 5 20  
GLENWOOD........................ 59 96 60 97 / 10 10 5 20  
CHAMA........................... 47 82 48 83 / 5 40 20 30  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 85 61 84 / 10 40 20 30  
PECOS........................... 59 83 59 85 / 20 50 30 40  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 81 54 83 / 10 50 30 50  
RED RIVER....................... 43 74 45 74 / 20 60 30 60  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 75 41 77 / 20 60 30 60  
TAOS............................ 51 86 51 86 / 10 40 30 40  
MORA............................ 53 81 53 82 / 20 60 30 50  
ESPANOLA........................ 60 90 60 91 / 10 30 20 30  
SANTA FE........................ 61 86 61 87 / 20 40 20 30  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 90 58 90 / 20 30 20 20  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 91 67 93 / 20 20 20 20  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 93 68 94 / 10 20 20 10  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 96 65 96 / 10 20 20 10  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 94 66 96 / 10 20 20 10  
BELEN........................... 63 96 64 97 / 10 20 20 10  
BERNALILLO...................... 63 95 63 96 / 20 20 20 20  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 95 62 96 / 10 20 20 10  
CORRALES........................ 62 95 62 96 / 10 20 20 10  
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 95 61 96 / 10 20 20 10  
PLACITAS........................ 65 91 65 91 / 20 30 20 20  
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 94 65 95 / 10 20 20 10  
SOCORRO......................... 64 97 66 98 / 20 20 20 20  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 87 61 88 / 20 30 20 20  
TIJERAS......................... 63 90 61 91 / 20 20 20 20  
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 88 58 90 / 20 30 30 20  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 89 51 92 / 20 30 30 20  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 84 56 86 / 30 40 30 30  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 87 59 90 / 20 30 20 20  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 87 59 89 / 20 30 20 30  
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 92 65 92 / 20 30 20 30  
RUIDOSO......................... 60 83 58 83 / 20 50 20 50  
CAPULIN......................... 57 84 56 82 / 20 50 40 60  
RATON........................... 54 87 55 86 / 20 40 30 60  
SPRINGER........................ 55 87 56 87 / 20 50 30 50  
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 54 85 / 20 50 30 50  
CLAYTON......................... 62 92 61 89 / 20 50 40 40  
ROY............................. 61 87 61 86 / 30 50 40 40  
CONCHAS......................... 67 96 65 95 / 20 40 40 30  
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 93 65 93 / 20 40 30 30  
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 98 67 97 / 20 30 30 30  
CLOVIS.......................... 65 94 65 94 / 30 30 30 20  
PORTALES........................ 66 95 66 95 / 30 20 20 20  
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 95 68 96 / 20 30 30 20  
ROSWELL......................... 71 100 71 99 / 30 30 10 20  
PICACHO......................... 64 91 64 91 / 30 50 20 40  
ELK............................. 61 86 61 89 / 30 50 20 50  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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