364
FXUS65 KABQ 142331
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS, IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, CREATING STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM ON
THURSDAY AND STRONG EAST CANYON OR GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY EVENING.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
AREAS FROM RATON, TO LAS VEGAS, TO MORIARTY AND CLINES CORNERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER LOW NOW JUST NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE NM WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER CO THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A
DRY SLOT HAS ROUNDED THE HIGH AND PUNCHED THROUGH NM FROM
SW TO NE AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THUS, STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A
FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW, WHILE OTHERS MAY FORM NEAR THE OK OR TX BORDER AND
QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO TX. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
AND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON. MEANWHILE, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NE NM THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
LOITER OVER THE AREA TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP TO 20 DEGREES
COLDER THAN YESTERDAY AROUND KCAO. SPEAKING OF TEMPS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER
THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, AND A FEW BREEZES WILL
PERSIST, ESPECIALLY AROUND KCQC. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THIS AREA, INCLUDING AROUND TAOS. A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS ZONE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOITERING AROUND NE NM WILL BE
REINFORCED WITH A STRONGER FRONT. THIS REINFORCEMENT WILL ENTER NE
NM THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 45 AND 50KT DURING THE
AFTN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE NOTED BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS NE NM. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH.
THIS WIND ADVISORY MAY BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD FOR STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AROUND
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT MUCH OF EASTERN
NM.
OF GREATER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS BELOW GAPS IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE PEAK WINDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 9PM AND MIDNIGHT. MET AND MAV WIND GUIDANCE HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR WINDS AT KABQ, WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE
HIGH WIND WATCH BECOMING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE METRO WITH GUSTS
OF 50-55 MPH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT IT WILL BECOME A HIGH
WIND WARNING FARTHER SOUTH WITH GUSTS OF 58-65 MPH. WILL LET THE
NIGHT CREW TAKE ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE DECIDING HOW TO UPGRADE THE
WATCH. REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL PRODUCT, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
VERY WINDY.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FROM AREAS FROM RATON, TO LAS
VEGAS, TO MORIARTY AND CLINES CORNERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WESTERN
UNION COUNTY WILL LIKELY ALSO SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. SANTA FE
WILL BE CLOSE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AREAWIDE FOLLOWING THE BACKDOOR FRONT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. FOR THOSE AREAS THAT WILL FREEZE
TONIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY NIGHT, A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY FRIDAY
NIGHT. THOUGH THE ABQ SUNPORT WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING,
AREAS AROUND KAEG AND BELEN MAY SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
KROW, KTCC, SOCORRO AND KFMN WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING, BUT COULD
STAY JUST ABOVE.
WHILE THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS, A BAGGY TROUGH THAT WAS LEFT BEHIND CLOSED INTO A
LOW AND RETROGRADED TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM EACH DAY BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT
BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY
MONDAY.
ALL EYES WILL THEN BE ON THE NEXT UPPER LOW THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON IT'S POSITION, MOISTURE
MAY INCREASE WITH ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, OR IF THE LOW IS TOO
FAR WEST, WEAK RIDGING MAY DOMINATE NM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL TAPER OFF IN WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT, WITH A BRISK NORTH
BREEZE FOR MOST CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS OF 00Z,
ALTHOUGH THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST
BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 12Z. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z, SURGING SOUTH AND WESTWARD OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50
KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN ITS WAKE, WITH GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE RGV
AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY POOR VENTILATION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY, A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE PUSHING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY
EVENING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WHILE EASTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BELOW GAPS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NM
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TUESDAY AND BEYOND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 62 36 64 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 61 27 64 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 63 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 33 60 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 69 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 74 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 53 28 57 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 62 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 57 29 58 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 24 48 22 50 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 54 17 52 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 30 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 32 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 69 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 69 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 70 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 70 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 71 42 66 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 65 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 64 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 66 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 60 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 63 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 64 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 69 41 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 41 63 34 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 36 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 57 31 54 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 35 61 30 58 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 59 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 59 34 54 / 40 0 0 0
ROY............................. 40 61 34 56 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 46 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 68 40 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 71 41 60 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 69 38 58 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 70 39 59 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 71 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 76 44 62 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 72 40 57 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 44 70 38 54 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR NMZ227-228-230-231.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ222-223-228>230.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ219-220-224-225.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ216.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...16
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