353
FXUS65 KABQ 281118 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
518 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 515 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD DUE TO DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATING IN NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST CROSSWINDS WILL DEVELOP BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
A WEAK AND DRY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TREK OVER NORTHERN NM AND
SOUTHERN CO THIS MORNING, DRAGGING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL THEN TRANSLATE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW REDUCTION IN SPEEDS ALOFT.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
TODAY WITH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OBSERVING
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. AT THE SURFACE, A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT HAS ENTERED UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
NM, AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY, EVENTUALLY
RETREATING NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES IN BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING IN BEHIND
THIS BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT THEY ARE LARGELY PROJECTED TO BECOME
SCOURED OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON ONCE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES BACK OVER
UNION COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, VERY LOW SINGLE DIGIT TO SUB-ZERO DEWPOINT
READINGS (IN F) WILL BE COMMON, AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY THINNING OUT, BUT WILL RE-
ENTER NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL, WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER
SIDE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GAIN ANOTHER PUSH
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS SPREADING
OVER THE PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO ENCROACH UPON THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
(AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR ABQ). A FEW LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
ZONES ARE MODELED BY THE NAM, HREF, AND INHERENT CAMS WITH THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST POISED TO SEE DEVELOPMENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS WOULD ERODE AWAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL HAVE UNDERGONE
A MERGING OVER AZ AND NM BY THIS TIME WEDNESDAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS AT
700 MB ARE GENERALLY STAYING WITHIN A 15-30 KT RANGE, WHICH WOULD BE
A REASONABLE GUST APPROXIMATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IN WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE WESTERLY DIRECTION WOULD BE MORE
CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
NORTHEAST HIGHLAND AREAS WOULD STAY CLOSER TO A 25 TO 30 KT GUST
RANGE DUE TO THE TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT THERE. TEMPERATURES WOULD
RUN A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO
THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION, BUT WESTERN ZONES WILL ACTUALLY GAIN
A COUPLE DEGREES WEDNESDAY. NOTABLE DEWPOINT RISES WOULD ALSO BE
OBSERVED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL COME IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, USHERING IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW FOR MANY EASTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES.
MEANWHILE, UPSTREAM IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SUBTROPICAL LOW WILL BE
CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA JUST AS THE POLAR JET SENDS ANOTHER
TROUGH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATION LOOKS
TO IMPACT MOSTLY SOUTHERN NM WITH INCREASED PWATS AND
PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ABSORBS ADDITIONAL PRESSURE FALLS THAT
WOULD IMPACT MORE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE COOL, MOIST, AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE EAST WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME, LENDING TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAINFALL THERE AND SEVERAL INCHES OF WET, LATE SEASON
SNOW ON THE NORTHERN PEAKS. NBM VERSIONS 4.3 AND 5.0 PAINT 10-15
INCHES OVER MANY SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. AS
FOR LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL, THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS LOOK TO
RECEIVE THE MOST QPF UPWARDS OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH THE LATEST
NBM 5.0 SHOWING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE STRATIFORM NATURE
OF THE RAIN IN THESE EASTERN ZONES WOULD SEEM TO SUGGEST LOWER
AMOUNTS, BUT THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE LONGER DURATION RAIN
EVENTS SEEN IN A LONG TIME, 30-48 HOURS FOR SOME EASTERN LOCALES.
PRESSURE RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WOULD START BUILDING IN LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO DWINDLE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WHILE TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY BACK TOWARD
NORMALCY. MUCH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS (IN THE 20'S AND 30'S DEG F)
WOULD COMPLEMENT THIS REGIME WITH A LIGHTER WIND FIELD THAT WOULD
BRING A WELCOME RESPITE FROM HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT, BUT A STRONG CLOSED LOW IS
SLATED TO ENTER NM BY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT
LEAST SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WINDS ALOFT (SPEEDS RISING TO
30 TO 40 KT AT 10,000 FT MSL), AND THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE ALONG AND JUST DOWNWIND (EAST) OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS ALOFT WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL PERSIST AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KT FOCUSING NEAR KCQC, KSXU, KTCC, AND KCVN
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN SPEED THIS
EVENING, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST, STIRRING
UP GUSTS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
(BELOW 3,000 FT) OVER EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH A FAST-
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN NM EARLY TODAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DISRUPT THINGS IN NORTHEASTERN NM, BUT SHOULD
RETREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REGAINING MOMENTUM THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NM
AT HIGHEST RISK FOR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WHILE ALL AREAS SUFFER FROM
EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS THAN YESTERDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-10% RH. THE
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST
CENTRAL NM, BUT THERE ARE GROWING DOUBTS THAT NORTHEASTERN ZONES
WILL MEET THE WIND CRITERIA DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH
HAS ALREADY NOSED ITS WAY INTO UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES.
THE FRONT WILL GAIN MOMENTUM AND MOVE OVER EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT,
STIRRING UP SOME NOCTURNAL GUSTS, BUT ALSO BRINGING IN CONSIDERABLE
RISES TO DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY. THIS WILL SUPPRESS THE CRITICAL
FIRE THREAT FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS MAY FLIRT WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WHERE THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER ALONG WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
A LONG OVERDUE BREAK FROM CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOKS TO ARRIVE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT
COMBINE WITH MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW, PRODUCING MUCH GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR SOAKING RAINFALL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW. THIS
EVENT WOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR
RAIN/SNOW, BUT EVEN WESTERN ZONES LOOK TO RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH
OR TWO. EVEN AFTER THIS PRECIPITATION EVENT SUBSIDES, LIGHTER WINDS
AND CONSIDERABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY, MONDAY,
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP FEND OFF WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 39 72 43 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 62 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 64 34 69 39 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 66 28 69 36 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 64 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 70 30 71 36 / 0 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 70 35 70 41 / 0 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 74 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 30
DATIL........................... 70 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 30
RESERVE......................... 75 35 75 39 / 0 0 5 30
GLENWOOD........................ 79 40 79 44 / 0 0 5 30
CHAMA........................... 57 28 62 31 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 43 68 47 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 65 35 69 40 / 0 0 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 36 65 39 / 0 0 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 52 30 56 32 / 0 0 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 23 61 26 / 0 0 10 40
TAOS............................ 65 30 69 34 / 0 0 5 30
MORA............................ 66 32 68 36 / 0 0 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 73 38 75 44 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 66 42 69 46 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 38 72 44 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 45 78 49 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 79 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 20
BELEN........................... 80 41 80 47 / 0 0 0 20
BERNALILLO...................... 77 43 79 50 / 0 0 0 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 79 39 80 45 / 0 0 0 20
CORRALES........................ 78 44 79 51 / 0 0 0 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 40 80 47 / 0 0 0 20
PLACITAS........................ 71 46 74 51 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 20
SOCORRO......................... 83 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 42 71 47 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 70 43 71 47 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 37 73 43 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 31 74 38 / 0 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 35 69 42 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 50 76 51 / 0 0 0 30
RUIDOSO......................... 69 48 69 48 / 0 0 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 67 29 62 34 / 0 5 30 60
RATON........................... 70 30 67 36 / 0 0 20 50
SPRINGER........................ 72 33 70 38 / 0 0 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 33 68 39 / 0 0 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 75 35 67 40 / 0 5 10 50
ROY............................. 73 35 67 41 / 0 0 10 40
CONCHAS......................... 81 41 77 46 / 0 0 5 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 43 76 47 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVIS.......................... 83 45 76 49 / 0 0 0 30
PORTALES........................ 85 46 78 49 / 0 0 0 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 44 77 49 / 0 0 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 88 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 30
PICACHO......................... 82 50 79 51 / 0 0 0 30
ELK............................. 81 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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