519
FXUS65 KABQ 300702
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND FLASH FLOODING BELOW
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS. STORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN AND A RISK OF
NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF CA/NV INTO UT
AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN CO AND WY LATER TODAY. AN
ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT IS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND
COULD BE SEEN ON THE ABX RADAR JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT LAST EVENING –
AN UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE, PERHAPS MADE POSSIBLE BY MORE INSECT ACTIVITY
AND SCATTERERS THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD, IT WILL CAUSE A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TO ALSO DEEPEN
OVER EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
SURFACE GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT
PLAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NM. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL BE REACHED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
IN EASTERN ZONES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY’S READINGS
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL. MEANWHILE, REMAINING WESTERN ZONES WILL STAY A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. DRY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW 20’S (DEG F) BEGAN SPREADING EASTWARD YESTERDAY, AND
THIS TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TODAY WITH THE STRONGER
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THEREFORE, IT WILL BE HARD TO EVEN
GET MANY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS TO SPROUT THIS AFTERNOON.
INTO SUNDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PUT MORE DISTANCE
BETWEEN IT AND NM, ALLOWING THE GRADIENT ALOFT TO RELAX A BIT MORE.
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS MODELED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER, LEAVING A LOOSER
SURFACE GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON WINDS MORE SUBDUED. A FEW
HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A FEW
DEGREES IN ALL ZONES WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA RUNNING WITHIN
+/- 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
BY MONDAY, CONVECTION WILL BE STARTING TO SPREAD OVER OLD MEXICO AND
THE BIG BEND AS RETURN FLOW OFF OF THE GULF GETS GOING IN EARNEST.
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MODELED TO ENTER SOUTHEASTERN NM WITH
A LIMITED SPATIAL AREA (LINCOLN, CHAVES, ROOSEVELT COUNTIES)
GENERATING MODEST QPF VIA THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. OVER THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN ZONES OF NM, TEMPERATURES WILL GAIN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS HOLDING, BUT HIGH-BASED CUMULUS WILL START TO
INCREASE WITH A FEW BEING SUPPORTIVE OF VIRGA, MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A GENTLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE
BAJA, WHILE THE RETURN FLOW KEEPS PUMPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS INTO WEST
TX WITH MODIFIED MOISTURE SEEPING FARTHER WEST INTO NM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS
PROJECTED TO OBSERVE 40’S TO 50’S DEWPOINTS (DEG F) TUESDAY WITH
PWATS CLIMBING TO 0.8 TO 1.3 INCH (HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES). THIS WILL YIELD AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY SPIKING. CONVECTION WOULD
BYPASS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NEARBY AREAS OF NM, BUT MOST
REMAINING ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA WOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN VORT MAX LIKELY
LINGERING OVER CENTRAL NM INTO THE NIGHTTIME. THIS WOULD HAVE
IMPLICATIONS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOTS OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE DAY WHILE THE MOISTURE ADVANCES FARTHER TOWARD
THE AZ BORDER. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WOULD PERSIST WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE
WOULD BE QUESTIONS ABOUT INSTABILITY DUE TO CLOUD COVER, AND A MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIP EVENT ON WEDNESDAY WOULD CERTAINLY STUNT RAIN
RATES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CA TROUGH WOULD MOVE INTO THE GULF OF CA BY
THURSDAY, AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
FLOW ALOFT WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT DRYING IN WESTERN, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT, CENTRAL NM ZONES. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
POPS THURSDAY AND MORE-SO INTO FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE STAYING MORE
FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES.
THERE THE MOISTURE WOULD THEN LOOK TO BE RECYCLED FOR A FEW MORE
STORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO
SATURDAY. PERIODS OF BREEZINESS WILL BE OBSERVED TONIGHT AS A DRY
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
BEING COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BEGAN DRYING OUT YESTERDAY, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AS SURFACE/20FT WINDS GAIN MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL PRESENT A STRONG ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO INDUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH CONCENTRATING OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE SPEEDS WILL
TEETER ALONG CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, AND HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR
10% AS THE DRY AIR INTENSIFIES IN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HOWEVER, ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENTS IN THESE AREAS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE LOW FROM
RECENT RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK, SO NO RED FLAG WARNING IS
PLANNED. THAT BEING SAID, ANY CURED 1-HOUR FUELS WOULD BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO CARRYING FIRE TODAY WITH THAT CAPABILITY LIKELY
INCREASING MORE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WIND SPEEDS REDUCE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND
WHILE BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE, WINDS SHOULD NOT REACH
CRITICAL SPEEDS. IT WILL STILL TURN WARMER WITH VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH AND LESS EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES THROUGH MONDAY,
LEADING TO THE DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS SHOULD CHANGE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THOUGH, AS THE MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF
ARRIVES, BRINGING WETTING STORMS, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND MODERATED
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY, THE AREA THAT WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM THE
MOISTURE AND/OR WETTING RAIN WILL BE THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND
SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS SUCH AS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. WETTING RAINFALL WAS ALSO A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN THE MIDDLE TO
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER THIS WEEK, SO THAT MIGHT BE AN
AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO NEW LIGHTNING-CAUSED IGNITIONS TUESDAY ONWARD
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 43 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 72 33 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 72 41 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 37 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 71 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 41 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 74 44 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 51 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 83 41 87 44 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 45 91 49 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 67 34 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 73 44 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 42 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 69 32 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 32 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 74 39 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 74 41 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 81 46 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 74 50 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 56 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 85 51 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 53 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 86 49 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 48 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 84 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 85 50 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 78 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 83 52 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 89 57 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 78 46 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 43 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 39 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 46 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 45 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 47 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 56 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 75 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 74 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 79 41 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 80 41 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 42 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 82 51 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 80 46 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 86 50 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 48 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 88 52 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 88 54 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 89 53 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 87 51 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 93 55 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 86 54 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 85 51 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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