289
FXUS65 KABQ 070533 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1033 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1018 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
AN UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE US, WITH
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEWPOINTS AT THE
SFC ARE SLOWLY TICKING UPWARD AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST. TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND THAT WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW
ALOFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN LATCHING ONTO A BATCH OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN JET STREAK IN SOUTHERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN BELOW 0.1", WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK ACROSS THE DESERTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO SUNDAY,
WITH THE MOISTURE AND STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE CWA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING 60F EVEN IN NORTHERN NM LOCATIONS SUCH AS TAOS
AND FARMINGTON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE PAST SEVERAL
FORECAST PACKAGES IS STILL ON TRACK TO OCCUR, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE OCCURRING SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN US, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY
HAPPEN. ENS MEMBERS FAVOR A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF
CALIFORNIA, WITH THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY EJECTING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SOLUTION WOULD DELAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY.
THE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE GEFS AND GEPS FAVOR THE TROUGH TO
DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING EARLIER IN THE WEEK (LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY). WITHIN
BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS, MEANING SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
(POTENTIALLY A SERIES OF FRONTS). SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT REALLY ON THE TABLE THOUGH WITH THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WHILE SPREADING
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WITHIN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM WILL SEE BROKEN CIGS NEAR 9,000FT BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR SHRA MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN HOWEVER A FEW GUSTY SPRINKLES OR SHRA
MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS KABQ/KAEG AROUND 5PM. CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS OUTSIDE
PRECIP WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
POOR VENTILATION PREVAILS IN MOST AREAS TODAY, WITH MINOR
IMPROVEMENTS SATURDAY AS BOTH WINDS AND HUMIDITY INCREASE. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AREAS HOWEVER
WETTING PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THESE SHOWERS. INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY CREATE BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY STRONGER EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE NOTABLY PUSHED THESE HIGHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES FROM MID-
WEEK TO LATE WEEK. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH
POOR VENTILATION GENERALLY CONFINED TO VALLEY AREAS AND FAIR TO GOOD
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 24 59 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 28 57 26 58 / 0 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 24 58 21 60 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 55 28 58 / 0 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 25 59 23 61 / 0 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 55 27 59 / 0 20 5 5
MAGDALENA....................... 37 56 34 59 / 0 30 10 5
DATIL........................... 32 50 29 57 / 0 30 10 0
RESERVE......................... 30 59 28 66 / 0 40 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 33 63 33 70 / 0 50 5 10
CHAMA........................... 26 52 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 55 33 57 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 31 57 31 59 / 0 5 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 54 26 54 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 20 50 21 50 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 52 18 52 / 0 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 24 57 23 59 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 29 60 29 57 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 27 62 28 65 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 34 56 31 59 / 0 5 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 58 31 61 / 0 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 60 35 63 / 0 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 61 36 65 / 0 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 63 33 67 / 0 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 62 34 65 / 0 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 29 63 30 67 / 0 10 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 34 63 34 66 / 0 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 29 63 30 67 / 0 10 20 0
CORRALES........................ 34 63 33 66 / 0 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 63 31 67 / 0 10 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 59 35 61 / 0 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 62 34 66 / 0 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 63 35 68 / 0 20 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 55 33 57 / 0 10 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 32 58 34 60 / 0 10 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 60 31 61 / 0 10 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 62 28 62 / 0 5 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 57 31 57 / 0 5 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 59 32 62 / 0 10 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 61 32 62 / 0 20 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 63 37 65 / 0 30 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 39 57 37 60 / 0 20 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 29 62 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 26 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 23 66 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 62 31 60 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 71 41 65 / 0 0 5 0
ROY............................. 29 67 36 62 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 32 74 38 70 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 32 70 38 65 / 0 0 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 33 74 38 71 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 37 72 41 70 / 0 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 35 74 42 71 / 0 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 71 38 69 / 0 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 34 69 41 70 / 0 5 10 0
PICACHO......................... 38 69 40 68 / 0 10 10 0
ELK............................. 37 68 37 68 / 0 10 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42
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