239
FXUS65 KABQ 162347 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL IMPACT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE
TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CA IS STARTING TO SHARPEN UP
WITH DEEPER PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW IS STARTING TO DEEPEN TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS, AND THIS STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE
STRONGER BREEZES AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES, AND A FEW RECORD HIGHS MAY
BE MET BEFORE THE AFTERNOON IS DONE.
WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO RELAX THIS EVENING, STAYING GUSTY OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND EASTERN PLAINS, AS
THE SURFACE LOW WILL STILL BE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS.
THE BAJA TROUGH WILL EJECT AS A SHORTWAVE INTO CO EARLY SUNDAY
WITH A DEEPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL RECYCLE AND REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY WHILE THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES MORE (700 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 40 KT), AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO EVEN WINDIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A FEW ZONES WILL BE REACHING CLOSE TO 50 MPH GUSTS, NAMELY THE
NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE
WASN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY, BUT A LAST
MINUTE ISSUANCE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON IF SPEEDS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TREND UPWARD BY JUST A FEW MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL IN WESTERN ZONES
SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER, AND THE DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL IN
EASTERN NM WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED (ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE).
THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO UT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH MID
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES INCREASING MORE OVER NM. THERE ARE SOME
DISCREPANCIES WITH HOW MUCH THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS AND CAMS TENDING TO BOAST MUCH HIGHER 700
MB SPEEDS NEAR 40-55 KT FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN OF
NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL REACH THEIR MAXIMUM IN THE
MORNING MONDAY, PRIOR TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ALOFT WILL STILL DICTATE HOW WINDY IT TURNS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH 30-40 KT AT 700 MB STILL LOOKING LIKE A SAFE BET
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO
REDEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM MONDAY, PROVIDING A
STOUT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. THEREFORE, A FEW WIND ADVISORIES
SEEM WITHIN EASY REACH FOR MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WITH SOME OF THE HIGHLANDS EVEN ENCROACHING UPON 55 TO 60
MPH GUSTS. SECONDARY TO THE WINDS WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION, WHICH
WILL JUST AMOUNT TO SCANT FAST-MOVING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS/STORMS SKIMMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WHILE THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A WAVE OVER CO. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WOULD SWEEP IN FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY, PUSHING
DAYTIME HIGHS BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO EASTERN NM,
SETTING TEMPERATURES BACK SEVERAL DEGREES THERE GOING INTO
TUESDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO UT AND
EVENTUALLY CO ON TUESDAY, BUT ASSOCIATED PRECIP LOOKS LIGHT AND
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SPEEDS. ALL AREAS
WILL FORTUNATELY OBSERVE MUCH LIGHTER SPEEDS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO EVOLVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM, AS LOW LAYER MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS BEGIN TO OCCUR. THE FIRST WILL COME VIA A CONVERGENCE OF
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT IN NORTHEASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW OVER TX AND OUR REMAINING EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHARPEN INTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE INTO THURSDAY. THE
MOISTURE WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND LIKELY A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD THEN POTENTIALLY DROP OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO ASSIST STORM INITIATION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN EASTERN ZONES WOULD RUN A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE VERY STRONG WINDS
(OUTSIDE OF STORM OUTFLOWS). WESTERN ZONES WOULD TEND TO HOVER
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ONLY
THREATENING A FEW SPRINKLES AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS FROM VIRGA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF FOR MOST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LLWS AT FL020 ACROSS NORTHWEST, NORTHEAST, AND EAST CENTRAL NM
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE
BEGINNING MID SUNDAY MORNING. PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS COME THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS FAR WEST
CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A HIGHER COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES
INTO FAR NORTHWEST NM, INCLUDING KFMN AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A FIRE WEATHER GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARGINAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST AREAS
ARE STILL SLATED OVER THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN SOUTH SOUTHWEST SPEEDS WILL SURGE UP. THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY ENDS AT 8PM WHEN WINDS WILL START TO DROP BELOW
TRADITIONAL THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ANY
ONGOING FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD, AS GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
STILL BE QUITE COMMON ALONG WITH LOW HUMIDITY. IN FACT, HUMIDITY MAY
ONLY RECOVER TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN MANY CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY'S CRITICAL TO EXTREME EVENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL DRAG INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NM, AIDED BY A DEEP LEE-SIDE SURFACE
LOW. MANY LOCALES ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM ARE STILL MODELED TO
REACH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THE ABYSMAL HUMIDITY RECOVERY SUNDAY
MORNING WILL ONLY MAKE IT THAT MUCH EASIER FOR AFTERNOON READINGS TO
TANK BELOW 10%. THE WATCH FOR SUNDAY WAS CONSEQUENTLY UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE, BUT THE NORTHWESTERN
PLATEAU AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT DUE TO
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS.
SIMILAR AREAS WERE OUTLINED FOR A FIRE WX WATCH ON MONDAY, AS STRONG
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUFFET THESE ZONES. THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
HAVE MOVED INTO CO BY MONDAY, AND WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALOFT ON MONDAY, IT STILL
LOOKS VERY WINDY WITH ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW AIDING THE
GRADIENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COOLING, MOSTLY IN WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ZONES, AND THIS WILL OFFER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HUMIDITY.
HOWEVER, HUMIDITY READINGS WILL STILL BE HOVERING AROUND 10-15% IN
THESE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES IN EASTERN
ONES WHERE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY.
THE PATTERN IS STILL PROGGED TO SHIFT TO A COOLER ONE IN EASTERN
ZONES ON TUESDAY, COURTESY OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN
ZONES THEN WILL HAVE A SHOT FOR WETTING RAIN AS A DRYLINE TRIGGERS
STORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FROM WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TO
LOCALIZED OUTFLOW THREATS AND LIGHTNING STARTS FROM STORMS.
MEANWHILE WESTERN ZONES WOULD REMAIN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE-
WISE WITH ONLY VIRGA OR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS TEASING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 80 48 68 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 41 75 41 63 / 0 5 0 40
CUBA............................ 44 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 41 75 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 72 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 77 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 75 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 78 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 74 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 40 78 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 82 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 68 38 57 / 0 0 0 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 74 52 69 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 77 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 72 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 65 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 69 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 44 75 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 48 74 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 82 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 81 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 82 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 84 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 86 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 51 88 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 84 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 86 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 85 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 86 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 81 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 84 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 77 53 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 79 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 79 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 81 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 79 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 75 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 45 77 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 45 81 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 47 83 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 77 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 87 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 51 82 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 91 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 93 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 91 54 88 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 57 94 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 82 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ104>106-
109-121-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-106-109-121-123>126.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71
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