566
FXUS65 KABQ 261944
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 143 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES THIS MORNING WERE CLEAR,
WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY MORE DESTABILIZATION COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. FOR THIS REASON, STORMS SHOULD GROW TALLER, ALTHOUGH
WETTING FOOTPRINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY SMALLER. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT KABQ
HAS THE SAME PWAT AS YESTERDAY (0.92"). THE SOUNDING HAS MORE CAPE
THAN YESTERDAY THOUGH WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLY
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY AND A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS. BULK SHEAR IS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE SO MOST STORMS WILL
BE DISORGANIZED, BUT A FEW COULD SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN NORTHERN NM,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THE OVERALL
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE LOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING URBAN AND
OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS, INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO WHERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY ROLL THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. DUST STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAINFALL
FROM YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL CANNOT RULED OUT LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER OUTFLOWS. STORMS WILL WEAKEN
IN THE EVENING, BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AGAIN.
THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY,
PLACING DRY SW FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN DRY SLOT WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE WEST OVER ARIZONA & UTAH, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE
VERY LOW IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. 700 MB WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 40 KNOTS IN WESTERN NM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE GUIDANCE.
NONETHELESS, WITH EFFICIENT, DEEP MIXING EXPECTED, OPTED TO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR WESTERN NM, INCLUDING GALLUP, AND FAR NORTHERN NM,
INCLUDING CHAMA AND TAOS. WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE
RIDGETOPS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.
WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY, SOME HI-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING VERY ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NONE OF THIS RAIN WOULD REACH THE
GROUND, A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ANY ONGOING OR
NEW FIRES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SUNDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH. IT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE WINDY, WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH COMMONPLACE.
THE DRYLINE WILL BE HANGING OUT ACROSS FAR SE NM WHERE A FEW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS MAY DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH TEMPS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN EASTERN NM. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY
AS THE TROUGH OFF TO THE NW BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
DRAW MOISTURE NORTH AND WESTWARD. THIS MOISTURE PLUME WILL LIKELY
SET UP OVER EASTERN NM MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS WITHIN THE PLUME. MODELS HAVE NOTABLY TRENDED
FURTHER EAST WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME, KEEPING MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM DRY. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NM, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER AREAS NORTH OF
I-40. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
STORMS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS A POSSIBILITY AT MOST TERMINALS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PEAK IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z, WITH
COVERAGE DWINDLING THEREAFTER. OTHER THAN BRIEF MVFR VIS IN
STRONGER STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN MOST AREAS, BECOMING
A SW BREEZE BY THE LATE MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL DEVELOP AROUND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. SPOTTY WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL, BUT ONLY ENOUGH
TO CREATE VERY ISOLATED FUEL IMPROVEMENTS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON
SATURDAY, WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF A GREAT
BASIN TROUGH. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER IN THE NORTHEAST.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
SO A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE SEVERAL ACTIVE FIRES
AROUND THE STATE AND HOLDOVER FIRES FROM LIGHTNING THE PAST FEW DAYS
MAY SPREAD QUICKLY UPON THE INCREASE IN WINDS. THE ONLY CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE,
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE GUSTY VIRGA SHOWER IN CENTRAL NM
BOTH DAYS.
WINDS WILL TREND LOWER INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL STICK AROUND AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.
CONCERNS WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE MAX RFTI VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 3 TO 5 RANGE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MOISTURE PLUME WILL
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH AND WESTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES IN EASTERN NM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS MOISTURE PLUME, CORRESPONDING TO DRIER WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 92 59 91 / 30 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 86 46 86 / 70 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 86 53 86 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 87 52 86 / 30 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 85 53 84 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 52 89 53 88 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 86 55 86 / 20 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 89 61 89 / 30 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 85 57 84 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 52 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 57 95 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 80 46 80 / 90 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 86 62 86 / 60 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 87 58 87 / 50 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 82 55 83 / 70 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 73 48 73 / 70 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 77 44 78 / 60 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 48 85 52 86 / 60 5 0 0
MORA............................ 52 83 54 85 / 40 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 93 58 93 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 88 61 87 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 91 58 90 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 93 67 93 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 94 62 94 / 30 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 96 61 96 / 30 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 94 64 95 / 40 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 57 97 60 97 / 30 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 95 64 95 / 40 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 96 59 96 / 30 5 5 0
CORRALES........................ 61 95 64 96 / 40 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 96 61 96 / 30 5 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 92 65 92 / 30 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 94 63 95 / 40 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 99 66 99 / 20 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 88 60 87 / 30 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 90 61 90 / 30 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 91 58 90 / 30 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 92 56 92 / 20 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 87 58 87 / 30 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 91 59 90 / 20 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 90 60 90 / 20 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 93 66 92 / 20 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 85 62 84 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 53 88 56 89 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 52 91 55 92 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 55 93 58 94 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 88 60 88 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 97 65 97 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 92 61 93 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 101 67 101 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 97 66 97 / 20 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 102 70 101 / 20 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 99 70 99 / 20 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 67 101 70 100 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 100 67 100 / 30 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 104 70 104 / 5 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 64 97 65 96 / 5 5 5 5
ELK............................. 62 93 63 92 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ101-104-
105-109-120-121-123-125.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ101-104-
105-109-120-121-123-125.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ202-205-210-
216.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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