735
FXUS65 KABQ 012012
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
212 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY (LOW CONFIDENCE).
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH WILL CAUSE STRONG
CROSSWINDS ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LOW LOW HAS MOVED OFF INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND THE BULK OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. A POTENT 700MB JET STREAK IS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW AND HAS BEEN GENERATING WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THE JET STREAK
WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN (SOUTH OF I-40) OVERNIGHT, LIKELY CREATING A PERIOD
OF STRONG WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY
AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF LOCALIZED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. VERY LOW CLOUDS AND
EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOW CLOUDS
PERSISTING IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH DEPARTURES IN THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE ELSEWHERE. WHILE
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING, SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
IT WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT FALL WEEKEND AROUND THE REGION WITH HIGHS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE WEEKEND,
EVENTUALLY RETROGRADING OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
MODELS ARE STILL IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT ABOUT THE PASSAGE OF A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN TOWARDS
A LESS AMPLIFIED FEATURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVERALL. LOW RAIN
CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST, BUT ALL ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED
DRIER, EVEN THE GEFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE MOST BULLISH ABOUT A DEEPER
TROUGH. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY BE CLIMBING AS WELL, REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
A NORTH/NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER-LOW THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
YESTERDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHEAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY IN EASTERN AREAS WITH A STRONG BREEZE IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 00Z, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LIFR
TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A LOW (<20% CHANCE) OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SITES TONIGHT, IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN ANY
TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM. NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO
50 MPH HAVE BEEN COMMONPLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
STATE, WITH THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SOUTH OF I-40
THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT (<0.1").
PATCHY FOG WILL FAVOR EASTERN NM EACH MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ITS DEVELOPMENT. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST IN MOST AREAS EACH NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
BECOMING GOOD IN WESTERN AREAS NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITIES WILL GRADUALLY
TREND LOWER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 72 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 64 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 65 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 67 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 62 44 68 / 10 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 48 73 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 53 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 67 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 65 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 41 65 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 68 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 58 33 67 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 62 24 71 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 37 68 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 39 61 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 44 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 72 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 72 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 71 47 74 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 48 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 49 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 49 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 72 47 75 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 70 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 72 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 52 72 48 76 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 63 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 63 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 64 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 58 41 71 / 5 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 60 41 70 / 10 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 59 41 70 / 10 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 64 45 71 / 30 30 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 52 42 66 / 60 60 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 41 59 40 74 / 40 5 0 0
RATON........................... 40 65 40 78 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 66 40 77 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 60 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 61 45 76 / 50 20 0 0
ROY............................. 46 61 42 73 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 65 48 78 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 62 46 74 / 20 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 61 47 78 / 40 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 60 49 74 / 30 30 10 0
PORTALES........................ 54 61 50 74 / 30 30 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 63 49 76 / 10 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 57 64 53 74 / 10 30 5 0
PICACHO......................... 51 58 48 72 / 70 70 40 0
ELK............................. 48 56 46 72 / 70 80 50 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ227>237.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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