412
FXUS65 KABQ 111952
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1252 PM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8,500FT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC LOW,
CURRENTLY GATHERING OFFSHORE OF SOCAL, WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE AND EVEN WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP-UP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SOCAL AND THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
THE PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVE DIRECTLY OVER NM
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 560DAM 500MB LOW. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS HAVE
TRENDED UP BY 500FT OR SO RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE,
WHICH IS PUSHING ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS HIGHER UP INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, ONLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE LOOKING
ADVISORY WORTHY AND MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT. GIVEN THIS TREND, OUR
CONFIDENCE IN DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FRI/SAT HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH ONLY THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
PASSES (EX: BOBCAT PASS) LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. MOST POPULATION
CENTERS WILL GET RAIN, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR GRAUPEL AND EVEN LOWER
CHANCES FOR THUNDER. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.25-0.50", WHICH REPRESENTS A TIMELY AND MUCH-NEEDED
WETTING EVENT FOR OUR AREA. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST ACROSS
NORTH TX. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NM
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EJECTING LOW, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY
BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY, THEN SHIFT EAST OF NM
BY LATE SUNDAY AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
GOING INTO MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING WINDS WITH A
WARMING TREND THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE
AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN NM SUN/MON AFTERNOONS, DUE IN PART TO
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SOCAL ON MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE ON TO NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BRINGING OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE BY TUESDAY. WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM THANKS TO STRONG LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
TUESDAY DUE TO SPREAD AMONG THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS,
BUT WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH THE LOWERING OF VFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KFMN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO GET GUSTY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BUT ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NM.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY GOOD VENTILATION THROUGH THURSDAY. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL TREND UP THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC LOW,
FORECAST TO BRING HIGH HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WARMING AND DRYING
ARE FORECAST SUN/MON, WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS BRINGING NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY, BUT STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 60 35 54 / 30 5 10 50
DULCE........................... 30 58 26 53 / 50 30 10 70
CUBA............................ 34 58 34 52 / 20 20 10 70
GALLUP.......................... 26 60 26 49 / 10 0 10 70
EL MORRO........................ 33 58 33 49 / 10 5 10 80
GRANTS.......................... 28 63 28 52 / 10 5 10 70
QUEMADO......................... 33 60 34 50 / 0 0 5 80
MAGDALENA....................... 39 63 41 53 / 0 5 5 80
DATIL........................... 34 59 35 48 / 0 5 5 80
RESERVE......................... 31 66 33 52 / 0 0 10 90
GLENWOOD........................ 35 69 36 56 / 0 0 10 90
CHAMA........................... 29 51 26 47 / 40 30 10 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 57 38 49 / 20 10 10 70
PECOS........................... 33 60 35 53 / 10 5 10 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 56 33 49 / 10 10 5 60
RED RIVER....................... 30 46 28 41 / 10 10 5 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 53 20 47 / 10 10 10 70
TAOS............................ 30 59 27 53 / 10 10 5 60
MORA............................ 31 60 32 53 / 5 5 5 60
ESPANOLA........................ 32 65 35 57 / 10 10 10 60
SANTA FE........................ 37 60 39 53 / 20 10 10 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 62 37 55 / 20 5 10 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 64 45 58 / 10 5 10 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 66 43 59 / 10 5 10 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 69 41 61 / 10 5 10 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 66 42 59 / 10 5 10 70
BELEN........................... 37 68 38 60 / 5 5 10 70
BERNALILLO...................... 40 67 42 60 / 10 5 10 70
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 68 38 61 / 5 5 10 70
CORRALES........................ 40 68 41 60 / 10 5 10 70
LOS LUNAS....................... 38 68 40 60 / 5 5 10 70
PLACITAS........................ 42 62 43 56 / 20 5 10 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 67 42 59 / 10 5 10 70
SOCORRO......................... 41 70 43 62 / 0 0 5 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 59 40 53 / 10 5 10 80
TIJERAS......................... 39 60 40 54 / 10 5 10 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 63 37 56 / 10 0 10 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 65 32 58 / 5 0 10 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 61 36 52 / 0 0 5 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 63 38 56 / 0 0 5 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 63 38 58 / 0 0 5 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 66 43 60 / 0 0 5 80
RUIDOSO......................... 40 62 42 56 / 0 0 5 70
CAPULIN......................... 32 61 30 52 / 0 5 5 40
RATON........................... 29 63 29 54 / 0 5 5 40
SPRINGER........................ 29 66 29 56 / 0 0 0 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 64 33 54 / 0 0 0 50
CLAYTON......................... 42 68 35 56 / 0 0 0 30
ROY............................. 33 67 35 55 / 0 0 5 40
CONCHAS......................... 36 74 37 61 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 71 39 59 / 0 0 5 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 75 38 63 / 0 0 5 40
CLOVIS.......................... 38 74 43 65 / 0 0 5 50
PORTALES........................ 36 74 42 66 / 0 0 5 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 33 73 39 63 / 0 0 5 60
ROSWELL......................... 37 72 43 64 / 0 0 0 60
PICACHO......................... 39 73 43 64 / 0 5 0 60
ELK............................. 36 73 40 64 / 0 0 0 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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