188
FXUS65 KABQ 030708
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
108 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
LOW CLOUDS LOOKS TO DEVELOP ADDITIONALLY IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING
DUE TO LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF LATE SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AREAWIDE.
ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST NM ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG NEAR RATON PASS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IMPACTING SANTA FE, EASTERN ABQ, AND
CARRIZOZO AROUND SUNRISE. EAST WINDS SPREAD WEST TO WESTERN NM MID
TO LATE MORNING. BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS (WIND GUSTS OF
GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH) ARE EXPECTED FROM ABQ TO THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BEGINNING MID SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.
LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST TO SOUTHERN CA
TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH IT'S AXIS
HORIZONTALLY ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST. DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO MOVE BACK OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
DESERT SW THURSDAY BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH
GENERALLY WEAK AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERHEAD. IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER, THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN
MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXPANDING TO THE UPPER RGV AND WEST CENTRAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND SUNRISE. WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY (3 TO 5 MILE VISIBILITY) OR
BETTER EARLY SATURDAY, BUT SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS (1 TO 3
MILE VISIBILITY) CANNOT BE RULED OUT (10-30% CHANCE). LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG WILL BURN OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
PREVAILING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS
THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND CANYON
OPENINGS IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY. SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALL
MOUNTAIN RANGES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 77 53 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 76 40 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 74 47 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 76 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 45 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 73 46 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 45 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 68 44 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 76 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 49 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 73 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 50 71 48 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 73 47 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 67 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 27 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 74 42 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 72 44 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 77 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 72 49 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 48 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 53 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 55 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 50 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 74 51 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 76 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 50 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 74 52 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 52 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 48 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 50 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 71 47 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 45 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 47 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 45 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 50 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 65 44 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 73 46 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 77 47 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 77 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 47 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 76 52 72 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 72 49 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 53 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 51 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 52 75 51 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 73 51 77 51 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 52 77 52 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 53 78 56 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 49 72 51 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 68 47 69 49 / 10 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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