701
FXUS65 KABQ 091938
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
138 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
MAINLY FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS
BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST
TODAY TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE IT SPLITS, WITH A SEPARATE
CENTER CONTINUING TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE STATE AS DRIER AIR BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO NORTHWESTERN NM. WHILE WE START TO SEE THE INTRUSION OF THIS
DRIER AIRMASS, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
NORTHEASTERN NM. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS, THE PASSAGE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT LATER TODAY
LOOKS TO STAY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NM/ALONG THE CO BORDER,
WITH ANY SOUTHERN PUSH OF CONVECTION LIKELY DRIVEN MORE BY OUTFLOWS
THAN BY THE FRONT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS
AREA, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS. DUE TO THE
OVERALL WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW IN PLACE, ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP
COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LOT DRIER AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION AND DRIER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO FILTER IN. MODEL PWATS GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.60 INCHES ACROSS THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER, FAINT MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM (PWATS ~0.75-1.25
INCHES). THIS AREA COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IF STORMS BECAME
ESTABLISHED. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
HAZARDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD FRIDAY,
LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE. THE BEST REMAINING MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN BORDER (PWATS ~0.70-0.80 INCHES), WHERE ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING RECORDS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS THE
RIDGE RESPONDS TO THE PROPAGATION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW,
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE STATE IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE PREVALENT DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
AND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND DOWN IN RESPONSE, CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS, DURING THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, GIVEN WE ARE 5-7 DAYS OUT,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, PARTICULARLY WITH REGARDS TO HOW EFFECTIVELY
THIS MOISTURE RETURN PLAYS OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS
NORTHEASTERN NM. A STORM OR TWO NEAR THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT MOST OF TODAY'S
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS AND VSBYS. STORMS WILL
DRIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE OVERALL COVERAGE DISSIPATES JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NM THE REST OF TODAY, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING. WIND CONCERNS ALSO EXIST WITH
ANY LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM, AND EVEN
MORE-SO ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE REGION AND DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST FILTERS IN. IN ADDITION TO LOWER STORM
COVERAGE, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DROP AS LOW
AS 10-20% DURING THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN NM,
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30% ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
A WEAK PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY RETURN THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE, BEGINNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND AND
EXPANDING OVER MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LOOKING A BIT MORE LIKELY LATE THIS WEEKEND, PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 92 50 92 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 50 89 46 90 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 55 88 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 91 47 90 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 85 51 84 / 20 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 49 89 44 88 / 10 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 55 85 54 84 / 60 5 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 60 84 59 86 / 40 20 5 20
DATIL........................... 56 82 55 83 / 50 20 5 20
RESERVE......................... 56 89 56 89 / 60 20 0 30
GLENWOOD........................ 62 95 61 96 / 40 30 10 20
CHAMA........................... 51 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 83 61 85 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 55 88 53 90 / 20 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 81 47 84 / 20 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 72 45 75 / 30 20 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 76 32 80 / 30 20 20 0
TAOS............................ 52 84 43 88 / 20 5 0 0
MORA............................ 53 81 50 85 / 30 30 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 61 91 60 93 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 57 88 51 88 / 20 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 90 51 90 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 91 59 93 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 92 62 94 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 94 61 96 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 94 60 96 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 64 95 63 97 / 20 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 65 94 61 95 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 94 61 95 / 20 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 65 95 61 96 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 94 62 96 / 20 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 63 90 58 92 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 93 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 94 63 97 / 40 5 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 87 59 89 / 30 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 62 88 60 89 / 40 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 88 58 89 / 30 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 90 52 91 / 30 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 85 54 87 / 40 10 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 88 59 90 / 40 5 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 86 59 88 / 30 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 89 65 92 / 40 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 83 57 86 / 50 50 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 54 79 54 86 / 50 60 40 0
RATON........................... 53 83 49 91 / 30 40 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 55 87 49 93 / 20 20 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 84 50 88 / 30 20 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 85 61 93 / 40 30 30 0
ROY............................. 60 86 58 91 / 30 20 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 65 93 65 99 / 50 20 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 92 65 96 / 50 10 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 94 64 101 / 40 20 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 91 63 97 / 20 30 30 0
PORTALES........................ 68 94 65 100 / 10 40 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 95 68 99 / 30 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 98 67 103 / 10 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 64 91 63 96 / 20 30 5 10
ELK............................. 60 86 59 90 / 30 50 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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