231
FXUS65 KABQ 270001 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
- LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TUSAS
MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ON U.S. 64.
- SOME DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS ACROSS NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS
AND HIGHWAYS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY
AND SATURDAY DUE TO LOCALLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY WINDS IN IT'S WAKE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM CLIPS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
WINDS HAVE BEEN OUTPERFORMING GUIDANCE THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
THUS FAR. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE, WITH
VERY LIGHT WINDS IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. THIS MORNING'S 18Z SOUNDING
AT KABQ WAS CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN YESTERDAY, DROPPING FROM A
RECORD-BREAKING 0.63" DOWN TO 0.23". THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
FLEETING AS TOP-DOWN SATURATION OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS IN WESTERN NM
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN EXTENDING INTO THE MID AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOMORROW MORNING AS CLOUD BASES LOWER AND SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION IS
OVERCOME. A WIDE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE OVERHEAD
TOMORROW, WITH IVT (INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT) IN EXCESS OF THE
99TH PERCENTILE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. NOW
THIS WILL NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE TO A 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITATION EVENT SINCE CLIMATOLOGY TENDS TO BE MUCH COOLER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND A COOLER ATMOSPHERE CANNOT HOLD AS MUCH
MOISTURE. MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CREATE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT, BUT THE BEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTHWESTERN NM WHERE SNOW TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST.
GIVEN A 90% CHANCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 5" OVER THE
TUSAS MOUNTAINS, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THIS AREA.
THERE IS A LESSER CHANCE (30-50%) OF 5"+ OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND THEREFORE AN ADVISORY WAS NOT YET ISSUED.
IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLAY,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS (AROUND 1
FOOT) PANNED OUT OVER THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH SNOW LEVELS (8-9KFT) ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BELOW 6KFT SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW OR AT LEAST
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR AREAS AS LOW AS 6,000 FEET IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM ON SUNDAY. SNOW ON SUNDAY WILL BE OF A LIGHTER AND FLUFFIER
NATURE GIVEN THE COLDER AIRMASS AND WILL THEREFORE ACCUMULATE MORE
EFFICIENTLY. THIS MAY ALSO CREATE SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT THAT WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE PEAKS
OVER 10,000 FEET. A QUICK HIT OF SNOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR COMPONENT OF THE
FRONT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
IN CENTRAL AREAS LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE QUICK-HITTING NATURE OF
THIS STORM AND LOWER CHANCE THAT A LOW CLOSES OFF IN NORTHERN NM.
SUNDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS A PACIFIC FRONT RACES ACROSS
THE STATE. A BRISK NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COOLER AS
WELL. THAT BEING SAID, HIGH TEMPS WON'T BE VERY FAR FROM SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND EVEN REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS GIVEN THAT STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION WON'T
TAKE OVER IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
MONDAY WILL HAVE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MAY NECESSITATE THE USE OF CHAPSTICK.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY, BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER AZ WILL LEAD
TO THE GENERATION OF A RELATIVELY THIN SNOWBAND IN THIS AREA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION OF THIS BAND,
HENCE THE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-
40. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF 1-3" OF SNOW IN THE AREA EXTENDING FROM
RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL, BUT MOST MODELS ARE KEEPING THE HEAVIER SNOW
SOUTH OF THE CWA
A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDING BUILDS IN
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID
TO LATE WEEK, SENDING PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND ONCE AGAIN. MODEL
DISAGREEMENT REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT ALMOST
ALL CLUSTERS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIP. BEGINNING IN WESTERN NM NEW
YEAR'S DAY, PUSHING INTO CENTRAL AREAS ON THE 2ND AND 3RD OF THE
MONTH. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEASONABLY HIGH (7000-9000
FEET) DURING THIS PERIOD SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK LOOKS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH,
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
WESTERN AREAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN US WILL STEER AN
IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL, MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION, AND PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
ALLOW LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP TO SPREAD ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS,
WHERE THE FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE PRECIP WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE LINGERING IN SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY EVENING, THEN CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND FROM AROUND CUBA TO DULCE
AND CHAMA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
A STRONG WEST BREEZE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL PERSIST IN
EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN PEAKS
TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES. TOMORROW AFTERNOON'S BREEZE
WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH IN
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, WITH
WETTING PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN
NM WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY. A POTENT PACIFIC
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, USHERING IN A
COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 45 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION, EVEN IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW MAY
EXIST IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, BUT DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDING BUILDS IN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR, WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
FAVORING WESTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION WILL
PREVAIL FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 40 53 26 37 / 20 50 40 20
DULCE........................... 31 50 21 38 / 50 80 70 50
CUBA............................ 36 49 24 35 / 20 60 50 30
GALLUP.......................... 34 49 19 37 / 20 40 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 35 49 24 36 / 20 50 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 33 54 23 40 / 10 50 30 5
QUEMADO......................... 37 53 27 40 / 10 60 30 10
MAGDALENA....................... 42 57 32 45 / 10 30 20 5
DATIL........................... 37 52 29 41 / 10 50 30 5
RESERVE......................... 33 56 25 51 / 30 80 50 10
GLENWOOD........................ 37 60 29 58 / 40 80 50 10
CHAMA........................... 30 43 20 32 / 50 80 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 48 30 36 / 20 60 60 30
PECOS........................... 36 52 28 40 / 10 50 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 46 25 35 / 20 40 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 31 38 20 26 / 20 40 40 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 46 19 32 / 20 40 40 40
TAOS............................ 32 50 25 38 / 20 40 40 30
MORA............................ 35 54 26 40 / 10 40 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 34 56 29 44 / 20 50 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 40 51 30 40 / 10 60 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 53 30 42 / 10 50 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 56 36 44 / 10 60 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 58 34 47 / 10 50 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 61 34 49 / 10 50 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 58 34 47 / 10 50 30 5
BELEN........................... 39 62 33 51 / 10 50 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 43 59 34 47 / 10 60 40 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 61 32 49 / 10 50 30 5
CORRALES........................ 42 60 34 48 / 10 50 40 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 40 61 33 50 / 10 50 30 5
PLACITAS........................ 44 55 35 43 / 10 60 50 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 58 34 47 / 10 50 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 42 66 36 55 / 5 30 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 51 32 40 / 10 60 50 10
TIJERAS......................... 42 53 33 41 / 10 60 50 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 39 56 32 42 / 10 50 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 58 31 45 / 5 50 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 54 30 40 / 5 40 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 57 33 45 / 5 50 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 58 34 46 / 5 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 63 38 52 / 5 20 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 45 58 39 48 / 5 10 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 37 58 25 34 / 0 0 0 40
RATON........................... 33 59 26 37 / 0 0 5 40
SPRINGER........................ 33 63 28 44 / 0 5 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 56 30 43 / 0 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 40 69 34 42 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 40 64 32 46 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 43 71 37 56 / 0 5 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 67 38 53 / 0 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 74 40 56 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 45 74 42 57 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 75 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 72 39 58 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 77 43 64 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 71 42 60 / 0 5 5 0
ELK............................. 43 70 40 60 / 0 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NMZ210.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page