891
FXUS65 KABQ 232338 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2021
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER NM IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER SE AZ. SOME TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALLOWING THESE HIGH
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF KGUP, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY MORNING SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
34
PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD, AS
A LOW APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY EXPAND OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BAJA LOW, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS FROM OVER FAR NW MEXICO PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS WILL TAKE PWATS FROM BELOW NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 36HRS. IN THE
MEANTIME, EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS WITH A SLIGHT
DOWNTREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (SPRINKLES)
AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
OUR CWFA AND VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE
TO THE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY BEING MODELED. THE SOUTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WETTING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL LOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT'S GIVEN LESS EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH STARTS TO GET SHUNTED EASTWARD, AS A LOW
APPROACHES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD, FOCUSING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO STILL. BUT, MORE WIND THAN RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT
FROM THESE HIGH-BASED CELLS. THE GFS HAS PWAT'S JUMPING UP TO NEARLY
AN INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW INCHES EASTWARD, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD, THE MODELS BEGINS TO DIVERGE. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM, DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AND NOT
MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES. BY MID-WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
REBUILD TO OUR EAST, WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND GETTING ABSORBED IN
THE FLOW. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE
06Z RUN FOR LATE WEEK, SHOWING A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE, WHILE NM REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF BALLOON FIESTA. THE GFS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AND ABOUT
24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION
CONCENTRATED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
11/31
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND IMPROVING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO UPPER
LOWS WITH A PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP IMPACT THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
11
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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