860
FXUS65 KABQ 280658
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND UP ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH MONDAY AS SECOND UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION, BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY AND
CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT LOCALES ACROSS WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL REACH UP INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S, BRINGING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS. LASTLY, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY IMPACT. SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED HOT AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUE/WED AND
RESULT IN IMPROVING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOW TO MODERATE
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUE/WED, WITH
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ON THE UPSWING. FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM RETREATS NORTH
AND ALLOWS THE MONSOON HIGH A SHOT AT GETTING ESTABLISHED. THERE
IS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND THAT SPREAD IS RESULTING IN NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELED PWATS. THE 00Z GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SHOWS THE LEVELS REACHING 1.0" IN KABQ BY
LATE SUNDAY. THE NBM IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF AND
HENCE OUR POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN BY MID DAY, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS BEING COMMON
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREAS OF SMOKE
ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK
A FIRE GROWTH PATTERN IS IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
WEEK AS TROUGHING PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN US, WITH DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF NM. THE HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEYOND TODAY WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM MON/TUE DUE TO STRONGER WINDS FROM PERSISTENT LEE
SIDE TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NM AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS WHERE THE NUMBER
OF HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WILL EXPAND EACH DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME TO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUE/WED, WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS TRENDING UP. THE JET STREAM IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE MONSOON HIGH TO GET ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
UPTREND IN HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 56 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 46 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 87 53 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 49 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 88 52 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 85 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 88 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 83 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 89 50 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 94 54 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 80 45 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 87 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 54 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 76 44 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 86 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 84 53 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 93 58 91 56 / 0 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 88 60 85 58 / 0 5 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 58 89 56 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 64 92 64 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 65 92 65 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 59 95 58 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 64 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 97 62 96 61 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 96 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 59 94 58 / 0 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 96 63 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 60 94 60 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 92 65 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 64 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 99 67 98 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 89 60 87 59 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 55 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 58 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 86 58 84 58 / 0 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 54 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 91 54 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 93 57 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 59 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 97 66 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 91 61 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 100 68 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 66 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 70 98 69 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 98 69 96 67 / 10 5 20 10
PORTALES........................ 100 70 98 68 / 10 10 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 68 97 67 / 5 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 103 71 100 70 / 10 5 10 10
PICACHO......................... 96 66 95 64 / 5 0 10 0
ELK............................. 92 62 91 61 / 5 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-109-120-121-123-125.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ202-205-210-216-227-228.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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