454
FXUS65 KABQ 191127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
- MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES TODAY AND FRIDAY AS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN. ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT RISK
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD RETURNS TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO,
INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
A 594DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN NM TODAY AND AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR. TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FARMINGTON AREA AS WELL AS THE ABQ VALLEY, BELEN AND SOCORRO
AREAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU AND THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THAT LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S THIS MORNING. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND BEYOND, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WHERE THE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL EXIST AS WELL AS A MORE PRONOUNCED
MOISTURE GRADIENT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE DIMINISHING. AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES AND/OR VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIALLY
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE SMOKE FROM THE FIRES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NM, PARTICULARLY THE TROUT FIRE. WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING TODAY, SMOKE SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD, IMPACTING
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM, THOUGH A HAZE MAY BE NOTICED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NM AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NM AS WELL.
H5 HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WEST COAST
TROUGH. INCREASED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE ALLOWING FOR GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTHEAST NM WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MPH. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, STORMS WILL BE WETTER, BUT MAY STILL CAUSE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. SHOULD THE TROUT FIRE CONTINUE TO PUT OUT A LOT
OF SMOKE, WIND TRAJECTORIES WILL TAKE IT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM ABQ TO SOCORRO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS THE STATE. THE
500MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD BEEN SITTING OVER US BEGINS TO SHIFT
INTO EASTERN CONUS THANKS TO AN APPROACHING POTENT TROUGH FROM THE
PNW. INITIALLY, THIS SETUP BEGINS TO PUSH DRIER AIR FURTHER INTO
WESTERN NM, TO WHERE ANY VIRGA SHOWERS AND/OR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES
ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BOTH AT 700MB ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM AND AT THE SURFACE ACROSS EASTERN NM WORK TO CREATE
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND EASTERN NM MAY GET UP TO 35-40MPH THROUGH
SATURDAY, AND A STRONG NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS EASTERN NM SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY KEEP THESE GUSTS AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS SATURDAY.
THE PATTERN FULLY SHIFTS FROM A HEAT WAVE TO AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AFORMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE AND TROUGH
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN AND WESTERN CONUS
RESPECTIVELY BY LATE SUNDAY, PROVIDING A CHANNEL FOR SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE STATE. THIS CAN BE EASILY SEEN AS
FORECAST PWAT VALUES SURGE ABOVE 1", WITH THE POTENTIAL TO RISE AS
HIGH AS 1.5". THIS IS GOOD FOR THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE PWAT VALUES,
PER NAEFS PERCENTILE TABLES. EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP GIVEN THESE PWAT VALUES. MOISTURE
FURTHER INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND THIS IS LIKELY WHERE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, BOTH ON AND OFF BURN SCARS, IS THE
HIGHEST. TRAINING STORMS APPEAR TO BE A FAVORED SCENARIO, GIVEN
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEFORMATION ALOFT, WHICH INCREASES THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. CURRENT NBM 50TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL
FROM MONDAY-WEDNESDAY PAINTS MUCH OF THE STATE WITH AT LEAST 0.5",
WITH 1- 1.5" ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEAR BOTH BURN
SCAR COMPLEXES. 90TH PERCENTILE PAINTS AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FOR THE SAME PERIOD, A NOTABLE NUMBER GIVEN WE
REMAIN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS OUT FROM THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE
THOUGHT PROCESS IN FLOODING RISK IS OUTLINED WELL IN THE MOST
RECENT WPC DAY 5 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. OVERALL, A MONSOON
PATTERN IS SET TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MORE SO INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING, BOTH ON AND OFF BURN SCARS,
INCREASING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM, TO
INCLUDE OVER KLVS AND KCAO. THESE CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 15Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL AREAS, HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WHERE GUSTS NEAR 30KT ARE
EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE AND
A SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT, SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF BUT
HEAVY RAINFALL. KLVS IS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. THESE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT THU JUN 19 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NM.
FOR TODAY, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. BETWEEN 6 AND 12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY, BRINGING SMOKE FROM THE BUCK AND TROUT
FIRES NORTHWARD. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS EASTWARD, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH LIKELY. THESE STRONG WINDS, SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES, AND NEAR
90TH PERCENTILE ERC'S WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THUS, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY FOR ZONE 101 AND ADDED ZONE 105.
HAVE ALSO ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY FOR THE SAME TWO
ZONES. MEANWHILE, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACROSS WESTERN NM, VIRGA WILL BE THE RULE, THOUGH A DRY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY. STORMS OF
THE WETTER VARIETY WILL BE THE RULE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN IN EARNEST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY,
MONSOON FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM, BUT MORESO MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 60 100 57 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 92 52 91 47 / 5 5 10 0
CUBA............................ 92 59 91 55 / 5 5 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 97 53 95 49 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 91 57 90 53 / 0 0 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 96 55 95 52 / 5 0 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 93 60 92 55 / 5 0 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 67 91 62 / 10 5 20 5
DATIL........................... 90 58 90 56 / 10 5 10 5
RESERVE......................... 97 53 96 49 / 5 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 100 57 98 55 / 5 5 5 5
CHAMA........................... 85 49 84 47 / 5 5 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 64 88 61 / 10 5 20 5
PECOS........................... 86 57 88 57 / 20 10 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 57 86 55 / 10 0 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 49 76 49 / 10 5 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 43 80 43 / 20 5 10 0
TAOS............................ 89 57 89 50 / 10 0 10 0
MORA............................ 82 50 84 52 / 30 10 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 95 63 95 58 / 5 5 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 89 63 90 62 / 10 5 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 61 94 60 / 10 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 70 97 69 / 10 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 71 98 67 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 69 99 65 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 69 98 66 / 5 5 10 5
BELEN........................... 101 66 100 62 / 5 5 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 99 68 99 65 / 5 5 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 100 66 99 62 / 5 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 100 67 99 66 / 5 5 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 67 99 63 / 5 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 95 68 95 66 / 5 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 69 98 66 / 5 5 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 101 70 100 68 / 10 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 63 91 60 / 10 5 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 92 64 93 62 / 10 5 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 60 92 57 / 20 5 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 56 92 55 / 20 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 58 87 58 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 62 91 60 / 20 5 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 59 90 61 / 20 5 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 64 94 68 / 20 5 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 85 59 85 62 / 20 5 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 85 57 89 58 / 20 10 10 0
RATON........................... 90 55 93 55 / 20 10 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 88 56 93 59 / 30 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 89 56 / 30 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 92 66 94 67 / 5 10 0 0
ROY............................. 87 61 90 63 / 20 20 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 95 66 97 70 / 10 10 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 65 94 66 / 10 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 95 67 96 68 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 94 65 96 68 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 95 65 97 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 66 97 68 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 98 70 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 62 95 64 / 10 0 10 5
ELK............................. 89 59 92 62 / 10 5 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ101-105.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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