199
FXUS65 KABQ 081126 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
426 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING. A BATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A
PLEASANT EARLY WINTER DAY AND SO WILL TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES TICK
UP A FEW MORE DEGREES. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL TREK OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MAX
GUSTS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 35 TO 45
MPH RANGE, WHICH IS A TAD BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD. A
BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, COOLING TEMPS OFF 5-10
DEGREES. GIVING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, IT MAY STRUGGLE TO PUSH
PAST THE EASTERN PLAINS SINCE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE OVER SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AROUND FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
SURGE TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE THAT HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS CLAYTON AND A 20%
CHANCE OF REACHING 80F IN ROSWELL. ANOTHER DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
COOL TEMPS OFF FOR FRIDAY, BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN EASTERN NM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
COULD SLOWLY BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. AROUND 10% OF ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
SHOWING A QUASI-ZONAL, MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND
DEC. 16TH, WITH ANOTHER 10% SHOWING DEEP TROUGHING ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WHICH COULD TRANSLATE TO A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST A FEW DAYS LATER THAN THAT. EITHER WAY, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THE DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT
FOR A GUSTY DRAINAGE WIND THIS MORNING THAT WILL IMPACT KSAF. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH CLEARING
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
POOR VENTILATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THANKS
TO WEAK, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A COUPLE OF MODEST COOLDOWNS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
THANKS TO BACKDOOR FRONTS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN QUITE
STEADY EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
20-40% IN MOST AREAS. LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 20 MPH WILL PREVAIL IN
MOST AREAS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL, EXCEPT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 24 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 12 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 21 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 18 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 23 54 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 19 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 29 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 53 25 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 22 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 67 26 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 16 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 26 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 51 25 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 21 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 17 41 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 11 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 46 15 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 22 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 22 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 27 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 24 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 32 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 27 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 25 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 29 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 22 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 27 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 22 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 27 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 23 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 50 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 28 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 27 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 27 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 28 50 32 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 25 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 20 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 26 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 26 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 32 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 23 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 21 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 19 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 24 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 30 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 56 25 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 23 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 29 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 25 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 28 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 27 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 27 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 64 29 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 33 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 29 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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