150
FXUS65 KABQ 191947
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
147 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM VIRGA SHOWERS WILL IMPACT A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A NEARLY STATIONARY H5 TROUGH DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THAT SURGED SOUTHWEST THRU EASTERN NM THIS MORNING IS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH GAP WINDS STILL GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE RGV. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM
EASTERN NM WILL HELP TO DEVELOP GUSTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST BEFORE FIZZLING OUT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS BY
MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND
HELP WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
13Z NBM CEILING PROBABILITIES <3,000' ARE 40-60% OVER EAST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NM WITH PROBS <1,000' AROUND 20-40%. SEVERAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS AND
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
COVERAGE, AND EVEN THE EXISTENCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WITH MODELS THAT DO SHOW STORMS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE AS WELL. THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXPANDED THE
'MARGINAL RISK' OVER EASTERN NM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR
MORE LOW STRATUS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN (40-60% CHANCE).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
DRAGGING A MORE WELL-DEFINED H5 TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE DRIER ZONAL
FLOW EASTWARD ACROSS MORE OF NM WITH NEAR TOTAL SCOURING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO TREND WARMER OVER EASTERN NM WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST WINDS
AND HUMIDITY BELOW 15% (EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTHEAST NM).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS IS SHOWN FORCING A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN H5 RIDGE IS SHOWN
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW IMPROVING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BEGIN A MUCH
ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE 13Z NBM 50TH PERCENTILE
QPF HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS >0.10" OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH
>0.20" OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS WILL BURN OFF THRU 1PM. GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RGV
LATE THIS MORNING WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AFTER 2PM WITH A
10-20% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS >40 MPH BETWEEN 4PM AND 6PM. THE MAIN
FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VIRGA SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE
FROM CUBA TO LOS ALAMOS, TAOS, SANTA FE, AND ANGEL FIRE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
THEN RETURN TO EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM WITH A 20-40% CHANCE
OF IFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY
HIGHLANDS TODAY MAY RETURN TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
TODAY. RFTIS MAY TREND A TAD LOWER WEDNESDAY BUT ERC VALUES ARE
STILL HIGH WITH AN EVEN LONGER PERIOD OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE MARGINAL. IF SPEEDS TREND STRONGER
THEN A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH MORE SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. MEANWHILE, EASTERN NM WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY
FOG, DRIZZLE, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS TRANSITION MAY BRING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 75 42 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 72 36 73 30 / 5 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 73 42 73 39 / 10 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 35 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 74 40 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 79 41 77 39 / 5 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 42 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 79 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 79 39 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 84 43 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 66 35 66 33 / 20 20 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 50 72 49 / 10 20 10 5
PECOS........................... 71 43 70 43 / 5 5 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 42 69 41 / 30 40 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 62 32 64 31 / 40 50 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 31 65 29 / 20 30 40 20
TAOS............................ 74 40 73 36 / 20 20 20 5
MORA............................ 67 40 67 42 / 10 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 80 48 79 45 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 74 49 72 48 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 47 75 45 / 10 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 56 82 53 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 84 54 84 50 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 53 86 49 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 84 54 84 51 / 5 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 85 53 84 50 / 5 10 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 86 50 86 45 / 0 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 86 53 85 51 / 5 10 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 86 51 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 81 54 79 52 / 5 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 85 53 84 51 / 5 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 88 56 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 49 76 48 / 5 5 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 81 46 79 44 / 5 5 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 79 45 77 43 / 0 5 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 42 77 40 / 0 5 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 44 68 44 / 0 10 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 46 79 44 / 0 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 78 47 78 45 / 0 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 53 81 52 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 76 50 74 50 / 0 5 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 62 36 59 39 / 5 20 10 60
RATON........................... 67 40 64 41 / 20 20 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 69 42 65 43 / 5 20 20 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 42 64 44 / 0 20 30 60
CLAYTON......................... 66 42 60 46 / 0 10 20 70
ROY............................. 68 42 61 45 / 0 20 20 70
CONCHAS......................... 76 47 69 48 / 0 20 30 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 47 68 47 / 0 20 40 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 48 71 49 / 0 10 40 60
CLOVIS.......................... 81 50 69 51 / 0 20 50 40
PORTALES........................ 83 50 71 50 / 0 20 50 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 50 73 49 / 0 20 50 30
ROSWELL......................... 89 57 80 55 / 0 20 50 20
PICACHO......................... 83 52 77 50 / 0 10 50 10
ELK............................. 84 49 81 48 / 0 5 30 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ106.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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