070
FXUS65 KABQ 082323 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
- A FEW HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES
FROM ROAD SPRAY AND PONDING OF WATER.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY RETURN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
THEN PEAK SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY
CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
THERE ARE NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO PASS ALONG WITH THIS FORECAST. BUT
FIRST, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS TODAY
HAVE TRENDED 5 TO 10F DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVECTING
NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHEAST NM TONIGHT WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING FROM NEAR ROSWELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
A WEAK MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST THRU THE
AREA THURSDAY AND INTERACT WITH A THIN LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. MODEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS TRENDED THE PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER AND THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY
WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A WETTING STORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NM. MAX
TEMPS WILL TREND ANOTHER 5F WARMER THAN TODAY WITH BREEZIER SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS WELL.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE LAST NIGHT BEGAN BACKING OFF ON THE MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NM ALONG WITH A DELAY TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET FORCING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
TREND HAS CONTINUED ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE AS EVIDENCED BY DPROG/DT
ANALYSIS. A WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF THE H5
LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER AND
LESS SOUTH-NORTH TRAJECTORY OF DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDING SOUTH AND
EAST OF NM. NONETHELESS, SEVERAL MODELS STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
THERE IS GREATER MODEL SPREAD NOW BY FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION, FORCING, AND QPF PLACEMENT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THRU FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SATURDAY. NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE DOES AGREE WITH AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGHER QPF
DURING THIS PERIOD. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES AND EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE HIGHER QPF, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF AT
LEAST LIKELY POPS FOR EASTERN NM THRU SATURDAY. LINEAR BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV
AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL 700-500MB SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS MEANS THAT LOCATIONS BENEATH A BAND WILL PICK UP
DECENT RAINFALL WHILE NEARBY AREAS MISS OUT ALMOST ENTIRELY UNTIL
BANDS PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM. THIS TYPE OF CONVECTIVE PATTERN ALSO
DECREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
QPF.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER FOR SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF NM.
DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN NM WILL ALLOW CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL INSTABILITY
IS NOTABLY STRONGER SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NM WHERE A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRY INTRUSION INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SPC IS HOLDING ONTO A 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA FOR THE CORNER
OF UNION COUNTY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A 15% OUTLOOK AREA JUST WEST OF
THE NM/TX BORDER SATURDAY. WPC QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN FOR THE ENTIRE
5-DAY PERIOD WHICH AGREES WITH THE OVERALL TRENDS. NONETHELESS,
QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL HEALTHY OVER EASTERN NM WITH 0.25 TO 0.75"
IN MOST AREAS. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS >1" ARE POSSIBLE.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
TWO, LARGER, DEEPER H5 LOWS SWING EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MORE LIKELY THREAT WILL BE A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO STILL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MTS AND FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPS WOULD ALSO TREND COOLER THRU MONDAY AND PERHAPS
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHEASTERN NM WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE PAST SUNSET THIS EVENING.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS SOUTHERLY
WINDS REMAINING PERSISTENT OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM,
NAMELY AT KROW. THERE'S ANOTHER LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN REACHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO KROW BY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE WAS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF FOR KROW
HOWEVER. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND WEST-CENTRAL NM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WILL REVISIT INCLUSION OF A CHANCE FOR ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS AT A FEW TERMINALS DURING THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED APR 8 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING NORTHWARD INTO NM. HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE GREATER RAIN
AMOUNTS INTO EASTERN NM WHILE A FEW WET/DRY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN NM DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS ON SATURDAY HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
TAD STRONGER FOR THE AREA BUT OVERALL MIN HUMIDITY IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20%, EVEN ACROSS THE WEST.
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL HOWEVER TREND COOLER AND THERE ARE STILL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THRU THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 0.25 TO 0.75" OVER EASTERN NM SO AT LEAST SOME
MITIGATION TO FIRE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE IF STRONGER WINDS DO ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 77 46 77 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 29 74 33 72 / 0 5 0 20
CUBA............................ 38 72 43 71 / 0 10 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 32 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 39 70 42 69 / 0 10 5 20
GRANTS.......................... 36 75 39 73 / 0 10 10 30
QUEMADO......................... 40 72 42 71 / 0 10 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 47 74 48 73 / 0 20 10 30
DATIL........................... 43 71 44 69 / 5 20 10 30
RESERVE......................... 38 78 40 75 / 0 10 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 42 83 45 80 / 0 5 0 5
CHAMA........................... 33 67 36 65 / 0 10 5 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 46 71 48 70 / 0 10 10 40
PECOS........................... 39 73 42 71 / 0 20 20 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 69 41 67 / 5 10 10 50
RED RIVER....................... 29 65 33 59 / 5 20 20 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 66 29 63 / 5 20 20 60
TAOS............................ 32 73 37 71 / 0 10 10 40
MORA............................ 38 72 40 68 / 0 20 20 60
ESPANOLA........................ 39 78 43 77 / 0 10 10 40
SANTA FE........................ 46 73 47 71 / 0 10 20 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 76 46 74 / 0 10 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 79 54 78 / 0 10 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 80 52 80 / 0 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 83 50 82 / 0 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 81 52 80 / 0 10 20 30
BELEN........................... 41 83 46 82 / 0 20 20 30
BERNALILLO...................... 47 82 50 81 / 0 10 10 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 83 47 82 / 0 20 20 30
CORRALES........................ 48 83 50 81 / 0 10 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 83 48 82 / 0 20 20 30
PLACITAS........................ 50 78 52 77 / 0 10 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 82 52 81 / 0 10 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 48 84 51 82 / 0 20 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 74 49 72 / 0 10 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 43 77 47 76 / 0 10 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 78 43 75 / 0 10 20 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 78 39 76 / 0 10 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 74 44 71 / 0 20 20 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 77 45 75 / 0 10 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 75 46 74 / 0 10 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 78 50 76 / 0 20 10 40
RUIDOSO......................... 46 71 47 69 / 0 20 10 40
CAPULIN......................... 38 72 38 67 / 10 20 30 60
RATON........................... 35 75 38 71 / 10 20 20 60
SPRINGER........................ 36 77 38 74 / 5 20 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 75 42 71 / 0 20 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 43 80 47 72 / 10 30 30 60
ROY............................. 41 77 42 73 / 5 20 30 60
CONCHAS......................... 43 85 48 81 / 0 30 20 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 80 46 78 / 0 20 20 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 87 52 83 / 0 20 20 60
CLOVIS.......................... 47 85 50 82 / 0 20 10 40
PORTALES........................ 46 85 50 82 / 0 20 10 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 84 49 82 / 5 20 20 50
ROSWELL......................... 48 85 53 83 / 0 10 5 30
PICACHO......................... 46 80 46 77 / 0 20 5 40
ELK............................. 43 79 45 76 / 0 20 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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