037
FXUS65 KABQ 141802
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1202 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND URBAN
AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
SHORT
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MT WHILE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS IS
ALLOWING A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE STEERED NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NM WITH HEALTHY PWATS GENERALLY RANGING FROM
1.0 TO 1.3 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS MORNING’S SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THINNED OUT ENOUGH FOR
QUICK DESTABILIZATION, AND A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
HAS COMMENCED IN WESTERN NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUICK AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND EVEN A BIT STRONGER IN NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THIS WOULD REDUCE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF STORMS OVER ANY
PARTICULAR AREA AND LOWER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, BUT ANY TRAINING
CELLS COULD OVERCOME THIS. NORTHEASTERN AREAS WOULD TEND TO SEE
THE LEAST AMOUNT OF COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL
TURN MORE SHOWERY TONIGHT WITH LOWER RAINFALL RATES, BUT COULD
LAST WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR MANY ZONES.
THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT PERTURBED SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH STORMS BEING MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ONCE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS MAY LOWER
SLIGHTLY, BUT WILL ESSENTIALLY STAY ON A NORTHEASTWARD HEADING AT
ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANY AREAS THAT GET LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY WOULD BE MORE AT RISK OF RUNOFF AND FLOODING ISSUES ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING SAID, THE COVERAGE OF STRONG
STORMS DOES LOOK FAIRLY EXPANSIVE OVER CATRON COUNTY, AND THIS
WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL
BE THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE.
THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE, PROVIDING
AN EXTRA LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM, BUT
ELSEWHERE READINGS SHOULD FINALLY START TO FALL CLOSE TO, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
LONG
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CA
WHILE THE HIGH MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SQUEEZE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM, FROM A MORE DUE
SOUTH DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PAINT
WIDESPREAD QPF OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PWATS
CONTINUING TO HOVER WITHIN A 1.0 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. STORM MOTIONS
WOULD LIKELY INCREASE TO A 15 TO 25 MPH PACE IN THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BOTH OF THESE DAYS, BUT THE DAY-BY-DAY
BLOTTING OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL START
TO LEAD TO WETTER SOILS AND ANY TRAINING WOULD POSE RUNOFF AND
FLOODING CONCERNS, MOSTLY ON SMALL, LOCALIZED SCALES. THERE ARE
ALSO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH EXCESSIVE MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER
WHICH MAY IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CONSIDERABLY COOLER (ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL), ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, AND
PROLONGED CLOUD COVER COULD EVEN PUSH THESE VALUES LOWER.
BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND WITH A TRAILING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A DRIER AND MORE
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF NM,
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES THERE, BUT REMAINING AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO OBSERVE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. WESTERLIES
OVERTAKE MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY, REDUCING STORM
CHANCES MORE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG DETERMINISTIC
MODEL MEMBERS BY SUNDAY, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE DRIEST AIR
WILL BE FOUND IN WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN
OVERALL CONTINUED DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE FOR ALL ZONES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERALIZATION MIGHT BE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NM WHERE ANOTHER WEAK, BUT MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT COULD ENTER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH
THE EVENING, PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH
LESSER ACTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE. TIMING OF
STORMS AT LOCAL TERMINALS WILL BE CHALLENGING THROUGH THE EVENING,
AS MANY LOCALES MIGHT GET MULTIPLE OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF BRIEF-
LIVED SHOWERS OR STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRESENT TYPICAL
AVIATION HAZARDS OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. PRECIPITATION WILL
TURN MORE SHOWERY WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDNIGHT (0600UTC),
BUT A FEW WILL SURVIVE WELL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
A DAY-BY-DAY INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
PROJECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS
TO NOSE INTO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AND MORE-SO INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING
RAINFALL AND MUCH NEEDED FUEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. THE INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND
UPWARD WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES OCCURRING AREA-
WIDE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION
WIND CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
WILL PRESENT THE MAIN WIND CHALLENGES THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 79 59 78 / 50 20 60 80
DULCE........................... 45 79 47 76 / 60 40 70 90
CUBA............................ 51 75 52 74 / 60 40 50 90
GALLUP.......................... 51 76 52 75 / 50 50 50 90
EL MORRO........................ 49 74 51 73 / 50 50 60 90
GRANTS.......................... 52 77 54 76 / 50 60 50 100
QUEMADO......................... 54 75 55 75 / 60 80 60 90
MAGDALENA....................... 58 76 59 76 / 60 70 60 80
DATIL........................... 54 73 55 73 / 60 70 50 100
RESERVE......................... 54 80 56 79 / 40 60 70 90
GLENWOOD........................ 59 87 60 85 / 40 50 70 90
CHAMA........................... 46 72 48 70 / 50 50 70 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 76 59 75 / 40 50 70 90
PECOS........................... 54 80 55 78 / 40 60 50 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 76 53 74 / 30 50 50 80
RED RIVER....................... 45 67 46 67 / 30 60 60 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 72 38 71 / 30 60 70 80
TAOS............................ 49 80 51 79 / 30 40 50 80
MORA............................ 52 76 52 76 / 20 70 70 80
ESPANOLA........................ 56 83 58 82 / 40 40 60 90
SANTA FE........................ 58 79 59 78 / 50 40 60 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 81 57 80 / 50 30 60 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 81 65 84 / 50 30 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 83 62 84 / 50 30 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 83 61 84 / 60 30 50 80
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 83 64 83 / 50 30 50 80
BELEN........................... 60 85 61 85 / 60 30 50 80
BERNALILLO...................... 62 86 63 85 / 50 30 50 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 85 60 84 / 60 30 50 80
CORRALES........................ 61 84 63 83 / 50 30 50 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 85 61 84 / 60 30 50 80
PLACITAS........................ 61 82 62 81 / 50 30 50 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 84 63 83 / 50 30 50 80
SOCORRO......................... 64 87 65 83 / 60 40 50 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 79 57 78 / 50 40 50 80
TIJERAS......................... 58 80 59 79 / 50 40 50 80
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 82 55 80 / 50 50 60 80
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 83 53 82 / 50 60 60 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 80 54 79 / 50 60 70 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 81 56 80 / 60 50 50 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 80 56 80 / 60 40 60 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 83 61 83 / 80 50 50 80
RUIDOSO......................... 57 79 56 77 / 50 70 60 100
CAPULIN......................... 56 74 54 79 / 30 20 80 70
RATON........................... 54 80 54 81 / 30 40 80 80
SPRINGER........................ 55 83 55 84 / 30 50 80 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 79 55 78 / 30 60 80 80
CLAYTON......................... 65 81 60 88 / 30 10 60 20
ROY............................. 59 81 58 81 / 30 20 80 70
CONCHAS......................... 66 90 64 90 / 30 40 90 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 87 62 85 / 50 50 70 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 91 63 90 / 30 40 90 40
CLOVIS.......................... 66 93 64 91 / 50 30 90 20
PORTALES........................ 67 94 65 91 / 50 40 90 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 92 64 90 / 60 30 70 40
ROSWELL......................... 67 95 66 93 / 50 30 60 20
PICACHO......................... 62 88 60 86 / 40 80 50 80
ELK............................. 59 86 58 85 / 30 70 50 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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