758
FXUS65 KABQ 271818
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1218 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THREATENING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FAVOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A MINOR RISK OF LOW VISIBILITY FROM PATCHY FOG OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN NM THURSDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO
WESTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NM,
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRETCHED AND DEFORMED 574DM H5 TROUGH/LOW MAKING
ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF NM WITH DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM THE 30S TOWARD THE AZ BORDER TO 40S IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, AND 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TOWARD TX. THE RESULTING
LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED INTO THIS MORNING
HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL
HEATING TO TAP INTO THE REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO DEVELOP A
HEALTHY CU FIELD OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS CROP TO EVOLVE INTO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. MODEST EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL
TRACK THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NM
TOWARD TX THIS EVENING. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LOWER HUMIDITY
AND KEEP THINGS DRY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WILL PUSH A
BOUNDARY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD THRU EAST-
CENTRAL NM UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MEET UP WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW PUSHING LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NM. THIS ADVECTION OF MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BATCH OF LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THURSDAY MORNING,
CLEARING BY THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING HOURS. WHILE TODAY'S DEFORMED
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WILL BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS CENTER AXIS PLACED OVER EASTERN NM,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A NEARLY STALLED ~560DM H5 LOW
OVER CENTRAL CA WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH RELATIVE TO TODAY.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND FORCING TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE LATEST HIRES CAM RUNS
ARE FAVORING CI OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO'S AND CAPITAN MTS
NEAR OR JUST AFTER 12PM MDT. WHILE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR CI
BASED ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS, THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE FOR THE STRENGTH THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH BASED ON
ENSEMBLE SBCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 300-1200 J/KG. THAT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM NORTHEASTERN NM AND RETURN
FLOW FROM THE GULF CAN REACH INTO THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITH SECONDARY CONVECTION
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND EAST-
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MEET.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE ~560DM H5 LOW OVER CENTRAL CA FINALLY FORMALIZES ITS TRAVEL
PLANS AND BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER NV AND UT FRIDAY. THE
RESULTING STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING DRIER AIR
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL INCREASE SHEAR AND SHARPEN A
DRYLINE FEATURE N-S OVER EASTERN NM. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS DRYLINE FEATURE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING 0-
6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING 35-45KTS ALONGSIDE 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CELLS. SPC HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THIS AREA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL QUICKLY
TRACK TO THE E/NE TOWARD THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
DRY AIR ADVANCES THROUGH EASTERN NM INTO TX/OK BY SATURDAY MORNING
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH MODEST AND TYPICAL SPRING
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.
THEREAFTER, A BROAD AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE
AND WEST TX ALONGSIDE MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE RETURN FLOW
ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD INTO NM. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR STEADILY INCREASING COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS EACH DAY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM NEAR
KROW, BUT A SCATTERED CROP OF CUMULUS REMAINS. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTS, TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARD TX THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH BACK
WESTWARD TONIGHT THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HAVE
INCLUDED A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND AT KSAF AND KABQ UP TO 24 TO
28KTS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU WESTERN NM AND INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH CHANCES FOR IFR/MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
FEATURE AFTERNOON BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE HUMIDITY
BOTTOMING OUT TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. THIS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, RECENT RAINFALL THRU
THE EASTERN HALF OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ERCS AND FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO ANY NEW SPARKS. HIGHER MOISTURE AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES RETURNS TO EASTERN NM MONDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERN NM REMAINS DRY. CHANCES FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 87 51 83 / 0 5 5 5
DULCE........................... 39 82 43 79 / 0 5 20 20
CUBA............................ 45 78 47 77 / 0 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 38 81 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 78 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 81 44 80 / 0 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 41 82 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 86 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 76 41 72 / 0 5 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 77 54 75 / 0 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 44 77 47 74 / 5 20 40 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 76 49 73 / 5 5 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 37 67 41 64 / 10 10 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 72 40 68 / 10 30 20 60
TAOS............................ 40 79 46 76 / 0 5 10 20
MORA............................ 43 75 47 72 / 20 50 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 48 84 53 82 / 0 5 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 50 78 54 76 / 0 10 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 81 52 78 / 0 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 85 59 83 / 0 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 86 55 84 / 0 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 88 54 87 / 0 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 47 88 52 87 / 0 5 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 53 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 87 51 86 / 0 5 5 5
CORRALES........................ 53 87 56 86 / 0 10 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 48 87 52 86 / 0 5 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 54 82 57 81 / 0 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 86 56 85 / 0 10 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 54 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 79 54 78 / 5 20 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 49 81 53 79 / 0 20 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 81 51 80 / 0 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 82 47 81 / 0 20 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 76 50 75 / 5 30 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 81 49 80 / 0 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 80 51 78 / 0 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 83 58 81 / 0 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 50 75 54 75 / 5 50 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 39 72 46 70 / 30 20 10 30
RATON........................... 41 77 47 75 / 30 30 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 43 78 49 76 / 30 30 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 45 75 49 72 / 20 50 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 47 77 52 77 / 30 10 20 20
ROY............................. 45 75 51 73 / 30 10 30 40
CONCHAS......................... 50 83 55 80 / 20 5 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 79 53 76 / 10 20 30 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 85 56 82 / 10 5 20 40
CLOVIS.......................... 53 85 57 81 / 10 10 20 50
PORTALES........................ 53 86 57 82 / 10 10 20 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 83 55 80 / 10 10 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 57 87 60 85 / 5 5 30 20
PICACHO......................... 52 82 56 81 / 10 30 40 30
ELK............................. 49 82 54 82 / 5 30 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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