985
FXUS65 KABQ 292321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 415 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
- LOW CHANCE OF WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS FROM SNOW IN FAR
SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY TODAY. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER.
- COLD TODAY BEFORE BECOMING WARMER FOR THE END OF 2025 AND
BEGINNING OF 2026.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEW YEAR'S DAY THROUGH MID FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN NM, WITH THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA SERVING AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
SNOWBAND. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOWS THAT THIS MAIN
BAND HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING IN
OTERO AND EDDY COUNTIES. THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SW CHAVES
COUNTY REMAINS ON TRACK, BUT HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVELING IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BASED
ON THIS RECENT TREND. THE 50TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE MOST
RECENT HREF RUN HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1" IN RUIDOSO, WITH NO
SNOW IN ROSWELL AND AROUND 6" NEAR DUNKEN. AS A RESULT, THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES IN LINCOLN COUNTY HAVE BEEN EXPIRED GIVEN THAT
HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN TACT FOR CHAVES COUNTY, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 2" SOUTH OF ROSWELL IF THE SNOW BAND DOES MANAGE TO
FINALLY PUSH INTO LAKE ARTHUR AND DEXTER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FREEZING FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER
SNOW ENDS, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SNOWFALL MAY LIMIT ITS COVERAGE.
CONFIDENCE FOR FOG IS HIGHEST IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER
TULAROSA VALLEY, WITH A LOW CHANCE IN SW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS WELL.
SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AS FAR NORTH AS
I-40 ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT THIS SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY GIVEN
HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IN PLACE IS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TUESDAY AS
SKIES CLEAR OUT, WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY A COUPLE TO AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE FOG MAY NOT
CLEAR UNTIL LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALREADY BE STREAMING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. A NEGATIVELY
TILTED PACIFIC TROUGH WILL EJECT INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, PUSHING A SLUG OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. 200-300 UNITS OF IVT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG FORCING
MECHANISM. PWATS WILL RISE TO UPWARDS OF 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL AND WE MAY ONCE AGAIN BREAK A RECORD PWAT AT KABQ. SINCE THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE SO WARM AND MOIST, SNOW LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
SEASONABLY HIGH, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE
AROUND 10,000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO AROUND 9,000 FEET FRIDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT CROSSES THE STATE, WITH ONLY HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
BEING IMPACTED. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
0.05"-0.25" RANGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.5" IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE SW MOUNTAINS AND CHUSKAS. SO, AT THE VERY LEAST
THIS MOISTURE WILL BE WELCOMED, EVEN IF IT WON'T HELP MUCH WITH THE
PALTRY SNOWPACK THAT IS SITTING BETWEEN 10% AND 50% FOR MOST BASINS
AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
WINDS WILL TICK UPWARDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC FRONT
CREATES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
CONSIDERABLY DRIER FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY
LOW RAIN/HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN.
UNCERTAINTY OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS REMAINS HIGH
EARLY AND MID-NEXT WEEK WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. A
GUSTY NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT
KSAF AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. KROW IS
FORECAST TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST MVFR, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIFR CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. KROW
IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MST MON DEC 29 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM WILL TAPER OFF THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN POOR VENTILATION AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH STRONGER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE WILL CREATE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WETTING RAINFALL FAVORED OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NM. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE, DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND
LOWER HUMIDITIES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 51 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 49 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 9 51 13 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 53 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 12 53 16 59 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 56 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 26 49 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 24 51 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 20 61 25 66 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 24 63 29 68 / 5 5 0 5
CHAMA........................... 16 48 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 48 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 55 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 21 49 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 17 45 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 3 50 12 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 13 53 15 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 19 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 16 55 19 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 49 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 50 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 49 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 50 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 51 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 50 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 18 50 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 17 51 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 52 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 50 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 48 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 51 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 25 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 47 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 24 47 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 20 50 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 12 53 15 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 48 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 21 50 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 21 51 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 26 52 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 51 30 58 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 17 55 22 58 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 14 56 19 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 13 56 17 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 57 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 22 58 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 16 53 21 57 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 18 58 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 18 59 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 19 59 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 22 54 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 21 56 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 17 54 19 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 21 49 22 58 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 23 56 29 65 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 19 49 27 59 / 30 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ238.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
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