571
FXUS65 KABQ 200530 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM ANY NEW SPARK FAVORED TO
RETURN TO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A NEARLY STATIONARY H5 TROUGH DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THRU WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A MOIST BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THAT SURGED SOUTHWEST THRU EASTERN NM THIS MORNING IS
BANKED UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH GAP WINDS STILL GUSTING
TO AROUND 30 MPH IN THE RGV. SURFACE CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM
EASTERN NM WILL HELP TO DEVELOP GUSTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS THRU THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST BEFORE FIZZLING OUT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS BY
MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND
HELP WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
13Z NBM CEILING PROBABILITIES <3,000' ARE 40-60% OVER EAST-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NM WITH PROBS <1,000' AROUND 20-40%. SEVERAL MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS
WELL. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS AND
GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
COVERAGE, AND EVEN THE EXISTENCE OF STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. QPF AMOUNTS WITH MODELS THAT DO SHOW STORMS ARE ALL OVER
THE PLACE AS WELL. THE LATEST SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXPANDED THE
'MARGINAL RISK' OVER EASTERN NM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR
MORE LOW STRATUS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN (40-60% CHANCE).
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
DRAGGING A MORE WELL-DEFINED H5 TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE DRIER ZONAL
FLOW EASTWARD ACROSS MORE OF NM WITH NEAR TOTAL SCOURING OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN NM. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO TREND WARMER OVER EASTERN NM WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST WINDS
AND HUMIDITY BELOW 15% (EXCEPT PERHAPS NORTHEAST NM).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS IS SHOWN FORCING A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN H5 RIDGE IS SHOWN
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW IMPROVING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MAY BEGIN A MUCH
ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE 13Z NBM 50TH PERCENTILE
QPF HAS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS >0.10" OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH
>0.20" OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
A SURGE OF EASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING THEIR THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS HOUR, ALREADY HAVING PRODUCED STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS AT KSAF >40KTS. BASED ON ABX RADAR
OBSERVATIONS, IT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THRU TIJERAS CANYON TOWARD
KABQ AND IS EXPECTED TO SURPASS 35KTS B/W 06Z TO 10Z AT TIMES WHEN
AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS LOOK TO BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS OR EVEN ISOLATED LIFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN NM TONIGHT
AND THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH HOW PERSISTENT THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF NM, NOTABLY SOUTHEASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
TO WHAT DEGREE, COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. TAF
AMDS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR KROW BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, AND WILL BE DICTATED BY WHEN LOW CEILINGS CLEAR OR
NOT CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY
HIGHLANDS TODAY MAY RETURN TOMORROW WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
TODAY. RFTIS MAY TREND A TAD LOWER WEDNESDAY BUT ERC VALUES ARE
STILL HIGH WITH AN EVEN LONGER PERIOD OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
GIVEN WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE MARGINAL. IF SPEEDS TREND STRONGER
THEN A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH MORE SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. MEANWHILE, EASTERN NM WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY
FOG, DRIZZLE, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE
WITH LIGHTER FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS TRANSITION MAY BRING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION THRU TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 76 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 73 31 75 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 42 74 40 75 / 20 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 74 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 41 77 40 77 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 46 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 39 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 84 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 66 33 69 / 20 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 73 49 73 / 20 20 5 5
PECOS........................... 43 70 43 74 / 5 30 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 69 41 70 / 40 20 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 32 59 34 61 / 50 20 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 65 30 66 / 30 30 10 20
TAOS............................ 40 74 37 74 / 20 20 5 10
MORA............................ 40 66 42 70 / 30 30 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 48 80 45 81 / 10 20 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 49 73 48 75 / 10 20 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 77 45 78 / 10 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 83 54 82 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 84 51 83 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 87 50 86 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 85 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 51 87 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 85 51 84 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 86 46 85 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 86 51 85 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 80 53 80 / 10 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 85 52 84 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 77 48 76 / 5 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 78 48 77 / 5 5 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 77 44 78 / 5 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 79 40 79 / 5 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 69 44 74 / 10 30 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 79 45 77 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 78 46 76 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 81 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 75 50 73 / 5 10 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 36 58 40 66 / 20 20 60 60
RATON........................... 40 64 42 70 / 20 40 50 60
SPRINGER........................ 42 65 43 72 / 20 30 50 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 63 45 72 / 20 30 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 42 61 47 71 / 10 30 60 60
ROY............................. 42 60 45 71 / 20 40 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 47 68 48 80 / 20 60 50 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 68 47 77 / 20 60 50 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 70 50 80 / 10 60 40 50
CLOVIS.......................... 50 69 51 80 / 20 50 20 30
PORTALES........................ 50 70 50 81 / 20 50 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 73 50 82 / 20 60 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 57 80 55 86 / 20 40 20 5
PICACHO......................... 52 78 50 82 / 10 40 10 20
ELK............................. 49 81 49 82 / 5 20 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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