386
FXUS65 KABQ 100814
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
114 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
- DESPITE A COLD FRONT TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AREAWIDE.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WITH A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO
BE A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS LOW IS FINALLY
STARTING TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BE TREKKING ACROSS THE
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUAN DESERTS TODAY BEFORE REACHING NEAR THE BIG
BEND AREA BY LATE DAY. THIS TRACK WOULD REPRESENT WHAT THE ECMWF WAS
ADVERTISING 24 HOURS AGO WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
STAYING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE POPS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY BEEN
REDUCED A BIT TO 10 TO 20% OVER THE FARTHEST SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF
THE FORECAST AREA (SOUTHERN LINCOLN, CHAVES, AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES)
WITH MINIMAL QPF. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS BEGUN ENTERING
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WITH SOME CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE DROPS
PROJECTED FOR TODAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS SLATED TO RUN 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY'S READINGS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20
TO PERHAPS 30 MPH ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT AS ZEALOUS ABOUT PUSHING THE BOUNDARY BEYOND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A FEW AREAS DOWNWIND (WEST) OF GAPS AND CANYONS WILL
SEE EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS SNEAK IN, BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION OR STRONG GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
THE REMNANTS OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT WHILE SURFACE WINDS SLACKEN AND GENERALLY
VEER IN DIRECTION. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE RESIDENCE OVER EASTERN CO AND
NORTHEASTERN NM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ENSUING WITHIN THIS AREA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES
STILL INDICATE THAT PWATS WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
FLOW ALOFT FEEDING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE (PWATS STILL SHOWN TO REACH 1
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN NM). ANY NOTABLE
PERTURBATIONS IN THIS MOIST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY TREK
NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS, BUT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THESE NORTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES WILL
RUN A DEGREE OR THREE BELOW TODAY'S HIGHS, BUT EASTERN ZONES WILL BE
THE BENEFICIARIES OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPING BREEZES
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
A SIMILAR REGIME PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY WITH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHILE SEVERAL SUBTLE SMALL SCALE PERTURBATIONS CROSS NORTH OF
THE FOUR CORNERS. THE PWATS ARE MODELED TO REDUCE SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND SO
THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY APPRECIABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. POPS
REMAIN RATHER LOW WITH 20 TO 30% MOSTLY CONFINED ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS RESULTING FROM WEAK
OROGRAPHICS. RISING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH MORE DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WHILE WESTERN ZONES STAY CLOSE
TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST.
BY LATE THURSDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL BE JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CA LOW. ON FRIDAY THEY ARE MODELED TO PHASE
TOGETHER AS A BROADER LOW THAT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. A CLEAR-CUT SUBTROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE IS NOT
MODELED ON LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS, BUT THE LOW WILL HOST ENOUGH
BAROCLINICITY AND MARITIME INFLUENCE TO GENERATE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE WITH THE PACIFIC
FRONT, BUT PRIOR TO THIS SNOW LEVELS WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH,
HOVERING BETWEEN 7,500 TO 8,500 FT FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING TO 6,000
TO 7,000 FT OVERNIGHT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
IS MODELED WITH 0.1 TO 0.3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT BEING
COMMON WHILE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STACK UP HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT BETWEEN 0 TO -3 C AND ONLY
DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 C, THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE QUITE
LOW FOR MID FEBRUARY WITH ONLY THE MOUNTAINS MUSTERING 10-TO-1 OR
GREATER RATIOS. THIS WILL EQUATE TO JUST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, LIKELY IN A 3 TO 8 INCH RANGE WITH
ISOLATED PEAKS ABOVE 10,000 FT SURPASSING THIS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK-TX BY NOON SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY WANING FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER THIS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY SUNDAY WITH
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING TOGETHER WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. DEEP PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE TAKING PLACE
UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES ON MONDAY, AND STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL START FEEDING INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ALL HAVE INDICATIONS THAT THE
FLOW WOULD START TO MOISTEN TOP-DOWN DURING THIS TIME, INTRODUCING
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HRS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SURGING SOUTH THRU EASTERN NM WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM AROUND 12AM
MST AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THRU SUNRISE. NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 15 TO 25KT WILL
BE COMMON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NM. GAP
WINDS IN THE RGV HAVE TRENDED WEAKER TUESDAY MORNING. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CIGS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY
WITH EVEN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS (5-15%) FOR
SOUTHEAST NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 111 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE CUT-OFF LOW THAT HAS SPENT A LONG VACATION OVER THE BAJA, BUT
FINALLY GETS SET INTO MOTION TODAY, DRAGGING RAIN INTO THE MEXICAN
DESERTS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS RAIN WILL
LARGELY PASS SOUTH OF THE ABQ FIRE WEATHER AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE TODAY, THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY
ENTERING EASTERN NM. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE HUMIDITY
TO RISE SOME, AND DESPITE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT, NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN TODAY.
BREEZY WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING UP (ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY), AND LIGHT,
INCONSEQUENTIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL NM BOTH DAYS. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND IN
EASTERN NM THROUGH THURSDAY, REACHING 10 TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID FEBRUARY. A PAIR OF UPSTREAM PACIFIC
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MERGE AND TARGET NM LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. INDICATIONS AMONG FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE THAT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MAY BE A TIME FRAME OF INTEREST, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
NM WHERE HUMIDITY COULD STAY WITHIN CRITICALLY LOW RANGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 38 60 36 / 0 20 40 30
DULCE........................... 61 27 56 30 / 0 10 70 60
CUBA............................ 59 32 57 33 / 0 5 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 61 30 59 28 / 0 5 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 59 33 59 31 / 0 5 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 64 29 62 29 / 0 0 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 62 33 61 32 / 0 0 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 61 39 62 40 / 5 5 5 5
DATIL........................... 60 34 59 34 / 0 5 0 5
RESERVE......................... 68 34 65 32 / 5 0 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 72 38 70 37 / 5 0 10 5
CHAMA........................... 54 25 49 28 / 0 5 50 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 35 56 37 / 0 5 20 30
PECOS........................... 56 29 58 34 / 0 0 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 30 53 33 / 0 0 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 22 50 26 / 0 0 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 20 52 27 / 0 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 59 26 57 32 / 0 0 10 20
MORA............................ 56 27 59 32 / 0 0 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 64 30 64 35 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 58 34 57 34 / 0 5 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 32 60 36 / 0 5 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 40 63 40 / 0 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 40 65 42 / 0 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 38 67 41 / 0 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 38 65 41 / 0 5 5 20
BELEN........................... 66 36 67 39 / 0 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 65 37 65 41 / 0 5 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 35 67 39 / 0 5 5 20
CORRALES........................ 66 37 66 41 / 0 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 37 67 40 / 0 5 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 62 37 62 39 / 0 5 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 37 64 41 / 0 5 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 35 58 37 / 0 5 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 60 33 61 38 / 0 5 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 29 63 36 / 0 5 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 61 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 31 58 36 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 34 62 37 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 35 62 38 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 40 64 43 / 5 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 57 37 60 41 / 10 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 27 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 55 23 62 30 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 57 24 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 52 30 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 28 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 31 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 31 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 30 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 62 31 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 32 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 38 64 40 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 37 66 41 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 65 35 68 39 / 10 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
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