211
FXUS65 KABQ 111741 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS THIS WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD. DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW
STORMS.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG A BOUNDARY
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION IS ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
SOME VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH STORMS THAT ARE RIDING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND MOVING OVER THE SAME EXACT LOCATIONS. SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SFC MOISTURE WESTWARD TODAY, INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO THE LOWER 50S
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL MIX
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING STORM COVERAGE TO A MINIMUM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE RGV. THE UPPER-HIGH WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
UTAH TODAY AS WELL, WITH NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
INITIATION OF STORMS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SO THEY MAY BECOME TERRAIN-TIED, SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONCERNING FOR THE
RUIDOSO AREA SINCE STORMS COULD REPEATEDLY RE-GENERATE OVER THE
SOUTH FORK BURN SCAR. THE RRFS LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (LMPP)
SHOWS A BULLSEYE OF NEARLY 3" OVER SIERRA BLANCA PEAK, BUT KEEPS THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL JUST OFF THE SENSITIVE BURN SCARS. HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING STORMS CLUSTERING TOGETHER IN THE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO MAINTAIN THIS
CLUSTER AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES DOWNHILL.
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS FEATURE,
INCLUDING THE ROSWELL AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8PM AND 11PM.
STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WESTWARD IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, INCREASING SFC HUMIDITIES. AT
THE SAME TIME, FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST, HELPING TO
ADVECT MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BRING PWATS UP TO AROUND 120% OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE MAJOR HEAT RISK AT BAY, EVEN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-HIGH
WILL MIGRATE INTO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW REMAINING
ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. MOISTURE WILL BE MOST PLENTIFUL ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHERE PWATS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. A DRY AIRMASS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER-HIGH WILL
ATTEMPT TO ROTATE IN NORTHEAST NM, KEEPING CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM
HERE. EASTERLY SHORTWAVES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE SMALLER FEATURES ARE
POORLY RESOLVED BY GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS POINT.
AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID-
NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AROUND THURSDAY. THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE THIS EASTERLY WAVE BRINGS WILL HELP TO FURTHER
ENHANCE CONVECTION AND COULD BE THE FIRST MONSOONAL SURGE OF THE
SEASON. LOOKING AT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES, LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A FEATURE, BUT EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP
IS UNCERTAIN. THE GEFS BRINGS THIS WAVE RIGHT INTO NEW MEXICO AND
FAVORS A WETTER PATTERN WHEREAS THE EPS AND GEPS KEEP IT FURTHER
SOUTH, KEEPING MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO.
THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NM WILL SHIFT SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. FURTHER SOUTH,
STORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OR SO. OUTSIDE
OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HOWEVER, VIRGA MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. ELSEWHERE, GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. A
STRONG GAP WIND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
KABQ AND KSAF AS OUTFLOW PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR KABQ FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35KT. STORMS WILL LARGELY
DISSIPATE BY 06Z SUN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AGAIN
TODAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS FRIDAY HAVE PUSHED MOISTURE WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT, HELPING TO CREATE BETTER OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD AND THE BOUNDARIES THEY CREATE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
NOT JUST BE A CONCERN NEAR STORMS AS SOME BOUNDARIES COULD TRAVEL
HUNDREDS OF MILES. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST, PLACING MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ROBUST SURGES OF MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS
WEEKEND WILL DROP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 67 99 66 / 0 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 95 54 93 53 / 5 5 10 30
CUBA............................ 93 59 89 57 / 5 0 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 97 60 93 59 / 5 5 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 92 59 88 58 / 10 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 96 61 91 59 / 10 5 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 93 61 88 59 / 10 10 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 91 64 86 62 / 10 10 10 20
DATIL........................... 89 60 84 58 / 20 10 20 20
RESERVE......................... 95 56 90 55 / 10 10 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 98 59 92 59 / 30 30 70 40
CHAMA........................... 86 50 85 50 / 20 5 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 64 86 62 / 5 5 10 10
PECOS........................... 89 55 86 54 / 50 5 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 54 85 54 / 20 10 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 76 48 75 46 / 40 5 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 39 79 42 / 60 0 30 20
TAOS............................ 90 54 88 53 / 20 0 30 10
MORA............................ 84 52 81 52 / 60 5 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 97 62 93 62 / 5 0 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 90 61 86 60 / 20 5 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 59 89 59 / 10 5 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 66 92 66 / 10 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 70 93 68 / 10 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 66 94 65 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 67 93 66 / 5 5 10 10
BELEN........................... 100 64 95 64 / 5 10 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 99 66 95 65 / 5 5 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 63 93 62 / 5 10 10 10
CORRALES........................ 99 66 94 65 / 5 5 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 63 94 62 / 5 10 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 95 68 90 68 / 10 5 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 66 94 66 / 5 5 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 100 69 96 69 / 10 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 61 87 60 / 20 5 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 92 61 88 60 / 20 5 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 59 88 59 / 20 10 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 54 89 55 / 30 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 56 84 55 / 50 30 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 58 88 58 / 40 20 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 58 86 58 / 40 20 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 65 89 64 / 40 30 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 83 58 79 57 / 50 20 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 85 54 84 54 / 50 10 20 10
RATON........................... 90 53 87 55 / 60 10 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 90 53 88 55 / 60 10 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 53 84 54 / 60 20 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 90 62 89 61 / 10 20 20 10
ROY............................. 86 59 85 59 / 40 50 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 94 63 93 64 / 30 60 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 91 63 89 63 / 20 60 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 95 65 93 64 / 10 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 93 66 89 63 / 5 20 50 30
PORTALES........................ 95 67 91 64 / 5 20 50 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 66 92 65 / 10 50 40 30
ROSWELL......................... 98 70 94 68 / 0 40 30 50
PICACHO......................... 90 63 88 62 / 5 30 30 40
ELK............................. 87 59 84 58 / 10 10 30 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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