183
FXUS65 KABQ 271854
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
- LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT IN THE ROSWELL
AREA WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
- LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG TONIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL
CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITY ON ROADWAYS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
IT'S A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE WITH TEMPS STILL BELOW FREEZING
AROUND THE AREA AND TEENS HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SO THE SNOW COVER UNDERNEATH CAN
BE SEEN. THERE WON'T BE TOO MUCH MELTING TODAY GIVEN THAT TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. A N/S ORIENTED JET MAX IS PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY,
BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
BREEZE IN THE HIGHLANDS. GIVEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS, THERE COULD
BE A BIT OF SUBLIMATION IN THE HIGHLANDS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WON'T BE AS
COLD AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS, WITH LOWS IN MOST AREAS WITHIN 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THANKS TO THE BLANKET OF SNOW OVER THE REGION WHERE TEMPS
WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN WIND CHILLS BELOW 5F IN
THE ROSWELL AREA, ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING
FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY,
WITH DENSE FOG LIKELY BEING CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE
RIVER BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE.
THE MODERATING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF A RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY, INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEE SIDE SFC LOW EAST OF THE CO FRONT RANGE. THIS WILL CREATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE, WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. WITH
700MB WINDS AROUND 60KTS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND PERSIST OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SATURDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UP TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES IN MOST AREAS,
WHILE THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE, MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS IT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. UNCERTAINTY IN THE 500MB PATTERN INCREASES
EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. SOME DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THEN SAGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA AND POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT TUESDAY
AS A RESULT. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE, WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER
THAN A STRONG DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE IS A MODERATE (40-70%) CHANCE THAT FREEZING FOG RETURNS TO
THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS KEEPING
THE DENSE FOG JUST TO THE EAST OF KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
POOR VENTILATION CONTINUES TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS, WITH POCKETS OF
FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS, REMAINING NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST
AREAS, WITH NEAR STEADY RH IN MOST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, DROPPING TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING
SHIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 45 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 9 48 8 47 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 15 48 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 7 52 11 50 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 15 51 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 10 54 16 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 16 54 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 26 50 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 20 52 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 58 20 59 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 21 62 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 10 42 10 41 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 20 43 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 48 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 44 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 6 37 11 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -6 43 3 39 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 8 46 11 44 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 14 53 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 12 49 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 44 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 17 44 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 25 48 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 21 50 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 24 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 14 48 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 23 49 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 15 50 17 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 23 50 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 49 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 25 45 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 24 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 23 52 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 21 44 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 23 43 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 16 45 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 5 47 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 43 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 17 45 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 15 45 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 22 47 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 22 48 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 17 48 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 12 49 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 11 54 17 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 52 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 23 53 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 17 50 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 15 58 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 17 54 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 14 55 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 16 47 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 12 47 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 11 46 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 9 41 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 22 53 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 19 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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