359
FXUS65 KABQ 061123 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 522 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN NM AS OF 1AM ARE
PRODUCING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS PUSHING SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES UP AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, FOLKS COULD SEE A BRIEF BUT GUSTY GAP
WIND IN THE MORNING COMMUTE. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS FORMING
ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS NEAR SUNRISE. WHAT THIS BOUNDARY IS
ALSO LIKELY TO DO IS PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS NECESSARY EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO PLAY OUT IN A VERY SIMILAR WAY TO THE LAST FEW
AFTERNOONS: STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW
STORMS IN NORTHEAST NM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER TODAY GIVEN A DOWNTICK IN
SHEAR, BUT IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
DEVELOP GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES CORRELATING DIRECTLY TO
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING INSTANCES. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NM, STORMS LOOK TO FORM ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY
POSE A THREAT TO THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS. THE HREF AND REFS
LPMM DID VERY WELL YESTERDAY WITH THE STORMS THAT FORMED JUST WEST
OF THE SOUTH FORK BURN SCAR, AND ONE AGAIN THEY SHOW STORMS
FORMING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIDGELINE. STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT
SLOW, SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME WESTERLY AT TIMES. DEPENDING ON
WHERE STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP, THIS MAY HELP KEEP STORMS AWAY
FROM THE SENSITIVE AREAS.
HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAINING IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM,
INCLUDING FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE. HOWEVER, EVEN AS HEAT
ADVISORIES ONLY COVER A FEW FORECAST ZONES, IT WILL BE HOT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. HEATRISK ACROSS OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE LEVEL WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR, MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS.
FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF OUTSIDE
FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY, WITHOUT TRYING TO SOUND
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. A FEW HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN IN THE SAME AREAS, AND DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, MOVING OFF TO THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. THE
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO DECREASE EVEN FURTHER WITH WEAKENING SHEAR
VALUES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS GIVEN HIGH LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE FORECAST. STORM MOTION STARTS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH, WHICH MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO AREAS THAT HAVE MISSED
OUT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
OVERALL, SENSIBLE WEATHER DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN WITH
HIGHS LOOKING TO DROP JUST A FEW DEGREES AS WE GO INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AT LEAST, IF NOT EXTENDING FURTHER PAST THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL PINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMING INTO THE AREA, AS EVIDENT BY THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN PWAT
VALUES ACROSS THE STATE. SOUTHERLY COMPONENTS OF 700MB FLOW LOOK TO
INCREASE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD BE THE CATALYST (OR AT
LEAST ONE FACTOR) OF AN INCREASED SURGE IN MOISTURE. THIS FLOW HAS A
DECENT CHANCE TO BE AFFECTED BY SOME APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVES,
WHICH ARE VERY HARD TO NARROW DOWN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE GOOD
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS (OVER THE COURSE OF
A FEW DAYS NOW), PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO BEGIN TO RISE AS WE GET
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION FOR NEW MEXICO? THAT REMAINS TO BE
SEEN, ESPECIALLY FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. THIS PATTERN DOES FAVOR
MORE PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO AREAS IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM
THAT HAVE MISSED OUT ON RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHICH IS
A PROMISING SIGN. NONETHELESS, THIS PATTERN STILL SPEAKS AS A
"WAIT AND SEE" TYPE FOR WHERE THE TRUE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OCCURS
AND HOW LOCATION-SPECIFIC MONSOON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TURN OUT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY FROM NEAR KSRR TO
KROW THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z OR SO. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM STORMS IN THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS (21Z AND
BEYOND) AND IMPACT TERMINALS ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM
KABQ WESTWARD. STORMS ON THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEND
OUTFLOW WINDS TOWARDS KSAF. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS (AFTER 00Z),
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM ARE LIKELY TO SEND UP GUSTY
WINDS TO CENTRAL NM TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THESE ARE AT KABQ/AEG AND KSAF, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT KGUP. ACROSS EASTERN NM, A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AT TERMINALS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40, THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH
AS KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH FUELS REMAIN DRY AND RECEPTIVE ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED
RAINFALL IN AWHILE). DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS MOST
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN NEW MEXICO DURING EACH AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO POSE
A PROBLEM OVER DRY FUELS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH
ANY STORM, WHICH MAY INDUCE ISOLATED RAPID FIRE SPREAD OR HELP
IGNITE DORMANT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOT TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN WITH
AREAS ACROSS WESTERN NM REMAINING IN THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED TO RISE
ACROSS MORE OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH
MAY BEGIN TO CHIP AWAY AT THE DRY FUELS IN THOSE AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 98 53 99 54 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 96 61 96 61 / 0 5 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 96 60 96 59 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 90 57 91 57 / 20 5 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 95 61 94 60 / 5 5 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 90 61 91 60 / 50 20 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 90 65 90 64 / 40 10 20 30
DATIL........................... 86 60 87 59 / 60 10 30 20
RESERVE......................... 94 60 95 59 / 60 20 50 10
GLENWOOD........................ 99 65 99 63 / 60 20 70 10
CHAMA........................... 92 53 92 54 / 5 0 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 63 91 63 / 10 10 20 5
PECOS........................... 94 58 93 58 / 10 10 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 92 58 92 58 / 5 5 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 85 48 85 49 / 10 5 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 86 42 86 43 / 20 5 50 0
TAOS............................ 94 57 92 57 / 5 5 20 0
MORA............................ 89 54 89 54 / 30 10 50 5
ESPANOLA........................ 100 64 100 64 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 93 63 90 63 / 0 20 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 95 60 93 60 / 0 20 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 98 70 97 69 / 10 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 68 98 67 / 10 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 102 67 100 66 / 10 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 69 98 69 / 5 20 5 5
BELEN........................... 101 66 101 65 / 10 20 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 102 68 100 67 / 0 20 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 65 100 64 / 10 20 10 20
CORRALES........................ 102 69 100 68 / 5 20 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 101 65 101 65 / 10 20 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 97 67 95 66 / 5 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 101 69 99 68 / 0 20 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 102 71 101 70 / 30 10 5 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 62 90 61 / 10 20 40 20
TIJERAS......................... 95 65 94 63 / 10 20 40 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 60 94 59 / 20 20 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 95 56 94 55 / 30 20 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 60 88 60 / 30 20 40 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 60 94 59 / 40 20 40 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 93 60 92 60 / 50 20 30 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 67 95 65 / 60 30 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 85 60 84 59 / 50 30 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 88 56 89 57 / 20 10 30 5
RATON........................... 91 55 92 55 / 20 10 40 5
SPRINGER........................ 95 55 95 56 / 30 5 30 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 57 89 57 / 30 20 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 95 62 96 64 / 0 20 20 20
ROY............................. 92 60 92 60 / 20 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 99 67 100 67 / 10 30 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 65 95 64 / 20 20 10 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 68 99 67 / 0 20 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 97 68 97 67 / 0 5 5 30
PORTALES........................ 99 69 99 68 / 0 5 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 69 98 68 / 0 10 5 30
ROSWELL......................... 100 72 100 71 / 0 5 0 10
PICACHO......................... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 5 5
ELK............................. 93 62 93 61 / 20 10 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-207-217-219.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page