939
FXUS65 KABQ 081122 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT A 20%
TO 50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF COOLING ACROSS EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A
MINOR TO MODERATE RISK IN HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING
NORTHERN MEXICO BUT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE A NEGLIBLE IMPACT ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW COULD BRING PATCHY STRATUS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES BY
DAYBREAK. SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE, EXPECT THE CLOUD DECK TO EITHER
ERODE OR BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY MID-MORNING. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SLOWLY OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED
TO THURSDAY WITH A FEW HOURS OF BREEZY WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON SAT WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTING
INTO NORTHERN NM IN ADVANCE OF AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE. BY
PEAK HEATING, EXPECT SOME WELL-DEFINED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP. GIVEN
ROBUST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES STRETCHING FROM 500
TO 1000 J/KG PER THE HI-RES DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORED, ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-40. A ROGUE
LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY ALSO OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN LI
VALUES WILL BE MARGINALLY NEGATIVE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NM FOR
SAT NIGHT AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT INVADES THE ERN
PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO SPIT OUT A LOW THREAT
FOR SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST NM DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY SFC
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA; HOWEVER, LATEST NBM SUGGESTS A 30%-60%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH, HIGHEST NEAR THE CAPROCK.
COOLER READINGS ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED IN
EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA. UPSLOPE FORCING COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THEN DRIFT
INTO THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BEFORE COLLAPSING. NBM GUIDANCE WAS A
BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH 70%+ POPS, BUT TEMPERED THEM A BIT GIVEN THE
MEAGER INGREDIENTS. REGARDLESS, GUSTY OUTFLOWS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. GAP WINDS ARE FAVORED IN THE RGV
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
TRANQUIL BUT HOT WEATHER IS PROJECTED FOR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK
AS A RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. 500HPA HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 590DAM, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE MID-MAY
RECORDS PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY DATABASE. BY TUESDAY, IT
APPEARS THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS TOWARD
THE GREAT BASIN REGION. AS A RESULT, EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS, WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS AT RISK. THE NBM SUGGESTS A 70%
TO 95% CHANCE FOR READINGS OF 95F+ OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM ON TUESDAY WITH NEARLY A 35% PROBABILITY OF TAGGING THE CENTURY
MARK AT KTCC AND KROW. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH SITES ON TUESDAY
ARE 99F AND 100F RESPECTIVELY.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPR LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC WILL WEAKEN
INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND MIGRATE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST U.S., OFFERING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS
WILL LIKELY TAKE A SLIGHT EDGE OFF THE HOT TEMPERATURES BUT WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
LOW TO MODERATE AS RESOLVING WEAK FEATURES OF THIS NATURE CAN BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MOISTENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO WITH IFR CEILINGS CONFINED TO EDDY AND LEA COUNTIES.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST CHAVES
AND FAR SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE (90 PCT
CHANCE) ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE KROW TERMINAL. STRATUS
WILL ERODE BY MID-MORNING. BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON,
A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT IN NORTHEAST
NM WHILE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG/WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. PEAK GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20-28 KTS WITH THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INCLUDING KFMN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER DUSK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ANTICIPATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. ON SATURDAY, EXPECT DEEP MIXING
TO NEARLY 500MB ALONG WITH A RISK FOR VIRGA SHOWERS THAT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. A MORE ROBUST BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE FOR EASTERN NM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT WETTING FOOTPRINTS SHOULD
BE RATHER LIMITED. GUSTY OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. A
NOTABLY HOT AND DRYING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WORK WEEK AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE WEAK, LIMITING THE RISK FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WITH FUELS DRYING OUT AGAIN, WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD CLOSELY AS NEW LIGHTNING-INDUCED FIRE STARTS
COULD BE CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 81 46 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 77 33 79 32 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 75 42 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 79 38 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 76 42 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 79 40 82 42 / 0 0 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 76 42 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 77 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 74 45 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 83 40 86 43 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 87 44 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 71 34 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 50 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 76 42 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 43 73 41 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 36 64 37 / 0 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 28 70 30 / 0 5 5 10
TAOS............................ 74 35 78 38 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 74 42 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 80 45 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 75 47 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 44 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 54 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 50 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 49 89 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 84 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 84 46 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 84 50 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 45 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 85 50 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 84 47 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 79 53 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 50 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 86 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 50 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 77 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 38 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 75 43 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 78 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 52 85 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 38 75 40 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 75 38 80 42 / 0 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 77 39 82 44 / 0 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 43 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 76 44 84 49 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 76 43 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 46 90 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 45 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 47 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 86 49 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 88 49 93 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 47 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 52 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 83 50 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 82 47 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...46
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