741
FXUS65 KABQ 092337 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
- A FEW HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST
WINDS WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS EASTERN NM, MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RECENT GUIDANCE WITH THE
UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. CUMULUS ARE BUILDING AROUND THE AREA TODAY
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWS A SHALLOW
INVERSION AROUND 500MB WITH A PWAT OF 0.30" AND STEERING FLOW TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 15KT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DIVIDE WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE STORMS EXPECTED BETWEEN 3PM AND 8PM. AN INVERTED-V
PROFILE WITH DCAPE OF 620 J/KG WILL FAVOR STRONG, ERRATIC DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS. THE 12Z RRFS AND HRRR SHOWED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WITH WINDS OF 25-35KT OVER THE RGV AND HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM.
SPC ALSO JUST REVISED THE DAY 1 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA TO INCLUDE
FAR EASTERN NM FOR A SEVERE WIND THREAT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT
WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PWATS ARE LIKELY TO
INCREASE ABOVE 0.50" WITHIN THE RGV AND UP TO 0.80" OVER EASTERN NM
THRU NOON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR BENEATH A 60KT
SPEED MAX AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION. SBCAPE OVER
1500 J/KG, BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS, AND BULK SHEAR NEAR 30KT MAY
ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO FIRE UP OVER FAR EASTERN NM. SPC
HAS EXPANDED THE 'MARGINAL RISK' AREA SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST NM
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BATCHES OF RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES 80KT AND THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU NM. CONFIDENCE ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN LACK OF CONSISTENCY
WITH MODEL QPF. THERE MAY BE GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY GIVEN THE STRONGER BULK SHEAR, DEEPER MOISTURE,
HIGHER SBCAPE, AND APPROACHING MIXED LAYER. SPC HAS ALSO EXPANDED
THE 'SLIGHT RISK' AREA EVEN MORE INTO EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS MUCH
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO STRONG WINDS SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS THE
LARGER, PARENT H5 TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE A SLOW-MOVER SO SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG WINDS WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN
WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH PASSES AND THAT HAS IMPLICATIONS ON
WIND STRENGTH, DRYNESS, TEMPERATURES, AND POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW FOR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NORTHERN MTS. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT LEAST SOME WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
GUSTS TO 50 MPH MONDAY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE
STRONGER GUSTS MAY FOCUS MORE INTO EASTERN NM BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
BREEZY PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WITH
INTERMITTENT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS FROM SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THRU 02Z TO 03Z OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NM
GENERALLY B/W KCVN AND KROW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WANE THRU 02Z.
SOUTHERLY PREVAILING WINDS WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT THRU
SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE PUSHING
NORTHWARD WILL AGAIN BRING LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
CEILINGS SPILLING INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY NEAR KROW PREDAWN
FRIDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ENTERING FAR NORTHEASTERN NM AT KCAO BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THERE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BRING LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHANCES DO EXTEND TO THE AZ BORDER AS WELL. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR THIS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AND
WILL BE EXTENDING THIS FURTHER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 9 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SATURDAY AS A MOIST STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. WETTING
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE HIGHEST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN AVERAGE PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 1" ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES
DECREASE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE DIVIDE, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED AREAS
OF WETTING RAINFALL ARE STILL LIKELY. A COUPLE DRY STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BETWEEN THE CONT DIVIDE AND THE RGV LATER TODAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH SUB-
CRITICAL HUMIDITY POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NM MAY
TEMPORARILY MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD SUNDAY. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS WITH MORE SUBCRITICAL HUMIDITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FUELS MAY DRY OUT QUICKLY OVER
EASTERN NM AS WELL SO ERC PERCENTILES WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PASS
SO THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER THAN FORECAST WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW FOR
NORTHWEST NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 77 48 72 / 0 10 30 40
DULCE........................... 30 72 38 65 / 0 20 60 80
CUBA............................ 40 71 42 65 / 5 40 70 70
GALLUP.......................... 34 74 38 69 / 0 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 41 71 40 66 / 5 30 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 37 74 40 71 / 5 30 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 40 72 41 68 / 5 20 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 47 73 46 70 / 20 50 60 40
DATIL........................... 43 70 41 67 / 10 40 40 30
RESERVE......................... 38 76 40 72 / 0 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 43 81 44 77 / 0 10 20 10
CHAMA........................... 34 66 37 57 / 0 30 70 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 71 45 64 / 5 40 80 80
PECOS........................... 41 71 42 63 / 0 50 90 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 68 41 60 / 10 40 80 80
RED RIVER....................... 26 60 33 53 / 10 50 80 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 64 34 58 / 0 60 90 80
TAOS............................ 32 72 40 64 / 5 40 80 80
MORA............................ 37 68 40 63 / 0 60 90 80
ESPANOLA........................ 40 78 46 71 / 5 40 70 70
SANTA FE........................ 47 72 46 65 / 0 50 90 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 75 46 69 / 5 40 80 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 77 50 73 / 10 40 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 79 50 75 / 10 40 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 80 49 77 / 10 30 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 80 51 75 / 10 40 70 50
BELEN........................... 44 81 48 78 / 10 30 70 50
BERNALILLO...................... 50 80 50 75 / 10 30 70 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 44 81 47 77 / 10 40 70 50
CORRALES........................ 50 81 50 76 / 10 30 70 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 81 49 77 / 10 40 70 50
PLACITAS........................ 52 77 49 71 / 10 40 70 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 79 50 74 / 10 40 70 60
SOCORRO......................... 51 82 50 79 / 10 40 60 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 72 46 67 / 10 50 80 60
TIJERAS......................... 46 75 47 69 / 10 50 80 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 75 44 70 / 10 60 80 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 76 42 71 / 10 50 80 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 72 44 66 / 5 60 90 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 75 44 69 / 10 50 70 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 75 46 69 / 10 40 80 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 49 76 49 72 / 10 50 70 50
RUIDOSO......................... 48 68 46 65 / 5 60 80 50
CAPULIN......................... 36 66 42 62 / 20 70 80 70
RATON........................... 35 72 43 66 / 20 60 70 70
SPRINGER........................ 35 74 45 69 / 10 60 70 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 72 43 65 / 0 50 80 70
CLAYTON......................... 44 69 47 69 / 30 60 80 70
ROY............................. 40 73 46 66 / 20 60 80 80
CONCHAS......................... 44 81 50 74 / 10 60 90 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 78 50 72 / 10 50 90 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 82 51 75 / 20 60 80 80
CLOVIS.......................... 51 81 53 74 / 10 50 70 80
PORTALES........................ 51 82 53 75 / 10 50 70 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 82 51 74 / 10 50 80 80
ROSWELL......................... 52 85 56 78 / 5 40 70 70
PICACHO......................... 46 79 50 74 / 5 50 70 60
ELK............................. 44 76 47 72 / 5 40 70 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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