709
FXUS65 KABQ 270843
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
243 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- RIVER FLOODING WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, AND POTENTIALLY IN CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFLICT MUCH OF THE AREA
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID MORNING, EXCEPT UNTIL
MID DAY ON THE FAR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. APART FROM
A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BETWEEN RUIDOSO AND ROSWELL THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
DRY WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES AREAWIDE STARTING
TODAY, THEN AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. IT WILL DRAW A RICH RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT, AS A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS NM IN SUCCESSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INGEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM VANCE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY CHURNING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. IT WILL PRODUCE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF NM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GEFS PWATS PEAK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AND AROUND 180-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL, WHICH IS QUITE HIGH. ACTUAL
PWATS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0.50-1.00" FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI IS FORECAST TO VARY AROUND 0.10-1.0", BUT NBM
90TH PERCENTILE QPF SUGGESTS A FEW PLACES WILL ACCUMULATE OVER
1.5" OF RAIN, EXCEPT OVER 2" ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
ROSWELL TO CLOVIS.
THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH ANOTHER
NICE TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, RAIN WITH THIS SOUTHWESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT WILL BE UNDER
A QUARTER INCH, EXCEPT UP TO A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF SUGGESTS LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER A HALF INCH, EXCEPT OVER 1.5" IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL DROP BETWEEN +1 AND +3
FRIDAY NIGHT, ENABLING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 10K FT IN
ELEVATION.
MODELS ARE NOW COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK,
DEPTH, AND TIMING OF A COLDER STORM SYSTEM WITH A STRONG TAP OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD, WESTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW, PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, AND POTENTIALLY TUESDAY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIP LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING
1-3" OF RAIN AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION. MODELS VARY ON
THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CO OR NM MONDAY, BUT EVEN A NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS CO SHOULD ENABLE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION, AT LEAST IN NM'S NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER NM WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SNOW,
AND POTENTIALLY SOME HIGHLANDS SNOW AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY. LESS COVERAGE OF
PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN RUIDOSO AND ROSWELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
AFTER POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION THROUGH MID WEEK, POOR
VENTILATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN
SOME HIGHLANDS LOCATIONS MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 61 29 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 37 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 65 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 64 31 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 31 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 64 35 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 74 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 38 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 62 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 37 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 51 30 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 21 57 21 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 61 29 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 63 32 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 66 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 39 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 46 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 39 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 43 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 43 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 45 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 48 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 41 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 42 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 63 41 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 42 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 49 71 49 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 64 44 67 44 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 39 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 67 34 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 32 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 46 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 67 38 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 73 47 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 51 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 52 76 52 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 73 51 77 52 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 50 74 49 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 50 75 52 / 20 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 72 45 76 47 / 20 5 0 0
ELK............................. 70 44 73 46 / 20 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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