839
FXUS65 KABQ 021914
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
114 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT
BURN SCARS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA
AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NM WILL
THREATEN FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- SCATTERED VIRGA AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-
CENTRAL NM AND GILA NF WILL THREATEN STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING, AND RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS THRU FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN ALONG THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALING 0.50" TO 1.25" HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 THIS HOUR ARE TAPPING INTO HEALTHY LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF PROVIDING 2000-3500 K/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NM. MODEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW THESE CELLS TO ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS
THREATENING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL. THESE
TWO AREAS FROM THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND NORTHEASTERN NM ARE EXPECTED
TO EXPAND AND CONGEAL OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM AND UP TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS. A SUBTLE AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ
THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TRIGGERING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NM WILL ALSO AIDE
IN DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAINLY
FROM MT. TAYLOR SOUTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY THREATEN DRY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING THAT COULD BLOW SOME DUST AROUND AS
WELL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL NM STRETCHING INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM ABQ SOUTHWARD. THESE GUSTY WINDS PUSHING
INTO THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METROS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY BE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY THE EVENING, DOMINATED FROM
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EAST OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A SLOW DECAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH EASTERN NM INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY
BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THESE PORTIONS,
DEPENDENT UPON MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL. NEVERTHELESS,
THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW WINDS WILL PUSH INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD TO AND PAST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE HIGHLIGHTED BY
TD'S INCREASING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EVEN TO THE AZ
BORDER ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. SLOW STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
LONG RESIDENCE TIMES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING FLOODING ISSUES
OVER POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE SANTA FE AND ABQ
METRO AREAS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ARROYO SYSTEMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RECENT BURN SCARS WILL AGAIN BE AT
RISK, NAMELY THE RUIDOSO AREA AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS, PROMPTING
AN ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ONE SAVING
GRACE HERE IS WEAKER SHEAR ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE LIFESPAN FOR ANY ONE
UPDRAFT. SECONDARY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MAINLY BE ALONG COLLIDING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FAVORING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL
AGAIN SLOWLY WANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THURSDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER WITH A SLOW INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NM. THIS
WILL SPREAD FURTHER INTO CENTRAL NM AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BRINGING A STEP DOWN IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO END THE WORK WEEK EACH DAY. MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY'S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS A RESULT. WEAK STEERING FLOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PERSIST, ALLOWING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING FLOODING
IMPACTS OVER POORLY DRAINED AREAS OR AREAS HAVING ALREADY SEEN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. RECENT BURN SCARS IN LINCOLN COUNTY
WILL ALSO REMAIN AT RISK, BUT AT A STEP LOWER RELATIVE TO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEES A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NM WITH A DEEPENING TROUGHING PATTERN ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE RESOLVES VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INTRUDING BENEATH THE HIGH INTO NM FOR NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS LOWERING THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR HOW MUCH DAILY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN HAVE ALREADY BEGIN THIS PAST HOUR. SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING SEVERE GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL NM WILL THREATEN MORE DRY DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS THAT
WILL STRETCH INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAINLY
FROM KSAF SOUTHWARD TO KABQ AND KONM. HAVE INCLUDED A STRONG EAST
CANYON WIND AT BOTH KSAF AND KABQ TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THAT LASTS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. REMNANT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST LONG OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NM, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS SLOW TO BREAK AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS CONCERN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON THREATENING NEW FIRE STARTS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL THREATEN LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT BURN SCARS, NOTABLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING, GUSTING TO 25 TO 40 MPH
FROM SANTA FE TO ABQ TO SOCORRO. DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF NM WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 89 54 91 / 0 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 83 41 86 / 5 50 5 5
CUBA............................ 52 77 47 83 / 20 40 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 49 84 46 86 / 5 30 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 50 79 47 82 / 10 50 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 50 81 47 85 / 30 50 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 49 81 49 83 / 20 60 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 54 77 54 79 / 50 70 30 10
DATIL........................... 50 76 50 79 / 30 70 20 30
RESERVE......................... 48 86 47 87 / 5 60 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 51 91 50 90 / 5 50 20 60
CHAMA........................... 44 75 40 78 / 5 60 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 74 53 79 / 20 70 40 30
PECOS........................... 50 73 46 80 / 40 80 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 74 47 79 / 20 70 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 41 65 39 70 / 20 80 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 68 39 74 / 30 90 30 40
TAOS............................ 50 76 46 81 / 20 70 20 10
MORA............................ 49 69 45 78 / 50 80 50 40
ESPANOLA........................ 56 81 52 87 / 20 60 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 56 74 52 80 / 30 70 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 77 50 83 / 30 60 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 82 59 86 / 30 60 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 84 56 87 / 30 50 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 86 56 90 / 30 50 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 84 57 88 / 30 40 30 0
BELEN........................... 55 86 54 89 / 40 40 40 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 84 57 89 / 30 50 30 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 85 53 89 / 40 40 30 0
CORRALES........................ 59 85 57 90 / 30 50 30 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 85 54 89 / 40 40 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 79 57 85 / 30 60 40 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 84 57 88 / 30 50 30 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 88 59 89 / 50 40 40 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 76 52 81 / 40 70 40 5
TIJERAS......................... 54 77 52 82 / 40 60 40 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 77 49 83 / 40 60 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 77 47 83 / 40 60 50 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 71 48 78 / 40 70 60 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 77 49 81 / 50 60 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 76 50 79 / 60 60 60 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 80 57 80 / 60 50 60 40
RUIDOSO......................... 53 72 52 74 / 60 70 60 80
CAPULIN......................... 48 68 45 77 / 50 50 20 20
RATON........................... 50 73 47 81 / 40 60 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 52 73 48 81 / 50 60 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 69 48 78 / 60 70 60 40
CLAYTON......................... 54 74 52 81 / 70 50 50 5
ROY............................. 52 70 50 78 / 70 60 50 20
CONCHAS......................... 56 76 54 84 / 70 70 70 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 73 52 81 / 60 60 70 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 78 55 85 / 70 70 60 20
CLOVIS.......................... 59 77 56 82 / 70 60 60 50
PORTALES........................ 59 78 56 83 / 70 60 60 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 77 55 82 / 70 60 70 30
ROSWELL......................... 60 80 59 83 / 80 50 60 20
PICACHO......................... 55 77 54 80 / 70 60 50 60
ELK............................. 54 77 53 80 / 60 70 60 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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