405  
FXUS65 KABQ 062348  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
548 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
THE FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT, FROM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY,  
TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON  
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED  
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE ALONG AND  
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT, A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL  
VALLEY WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL PROBABLY ALSO SPREAD TO MORE OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
EXCEPT FOR THE ROSWELL AREA WHERE READINGS MAY WARM NEAR NORMAL  
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
THE WEST COAST CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE COASTLINE OF  
SOUTHERN CA WITH A SLUG OF DIFFLUENCE AND AND ASCENT ALOFT MAKING  
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NM, AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS AND THE HREF  
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OF STORMS EXPANDING  
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD  
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS NORTH-SOUTH BAND  
WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH  
A CENTRALIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED TO  
WORK INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MANY AREAS OBSERVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO  
LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS, AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,  
AND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO  
INTRODUCE SOME SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION  
TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON  
RECENT BURN SCARS, AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH  
MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATE THIS  
EVENING.  
 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH (40’S TO 50’S F) DEWPOINTS  
WILL STAY PUT OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX OUT  
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW THE UPPER LOW  
CREEPS TOWARD NV AND A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT BLEEDS INTO NM.  
THIS WILL LIKELY SHARPEN UP THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE NEAR OR  
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20’S IN FAR WESTERN NM  
WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE DEMARCATION HOLD IN THE 40’S AND 50’S. IT’S  
A BIT SURPRISING THAT THERE IS ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS OF SURFACE TO MID  
LEVEL (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY BEING MODELED BY THE NAM ON  
WEDNESDAY, AS IT QUALITATIVELY SEEMS THESE NUMBERS WOULD CLIMB MORE.  
STILL, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WOULD BE  
POSSIBLE GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND  
SOME DIRECTIONAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE  
FOCAL AREAS FOR INITIATION WOULD BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE  
SACRAMENTOS WITH CELLS TREKKING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH  
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AT  
15 TO 20 KT, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL POSE CONCERNS FOR  
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND BURN SCARS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD  
FROM SOUTHERN CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CA TO TAKE ITS PLACE.  
THE DRIER AIR WILL ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER, AND  
IT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MOST PLACES. ONE AREA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE  
TO SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY  
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO  
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A  
MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM  
NIGHTLY, THEN MIXING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM DAILY.  
ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME NIGHTLY ROUNDS OF LOW  
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE BACKDOOR FRONT  
ADVANCING FURTHER WESTWARD NIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL LIKELY DRAW  
THE FRONT ALL OF THE WAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY  
WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE  
ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, PROBABLY  
FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,  
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
A LINE OF MAINLY SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOW  
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FROM  
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
 
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT AT  
HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING, STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ROLL  
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, MANY OF THEM SLOWLY DYING BY  
EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST, STORMS WILL ELONGATE AND EXPAND OVER  
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY  
EASTERN AREAS OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MANY, BUT NOT ALL,  
AREAS WILL RECEIVE WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FEWER  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS AS DRIER AIR  
FEEDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ALONG AND  
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS, HAIL AND LOCALIZED, BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS  
WILL BECOME EVEN FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN AS THE END OF THE WEEK  
AND THE WEEKEND APPROACH WITH THE BEST CHANCES STAYING CONFINED TO  
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM. LOW DEWPOINTS AND PLUMMETING  
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PLAGUE MANY WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL  
ZONES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE HAINES INDICES  
ESCALATE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, BUT FOR NOW SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY STAY BELOW CRITICAL  
THRESHOLDS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
FARMINGTON...................... 51 82 46 83 / 60 30 0 0  
DULCE........................... 44 74 37 77 / 80 50 10 0  
CUBA............................ 46 75 44 77 / 70 50 10 0  
GALLUP.......................... 41 78 38 78 / 50 10 0 0  
EL MORRO........................ 42 74 38 74 / 40 10 0 0  
GRANTS.......................... 43 78 38 79 / 60 20 5 0  
QUEMADO......................... 43 77 39 79 / 40 5 0 0  
MAGDALENA....................... 50 77 48 79 / 90 20 5 0  
DATIL........................... 44 75 42 78 / 50 10 0 0  
RESERVE......................... 39 79 35 81 / 20 5 0 0  
GLENWOOD........................ 50 83 47 85 / 20 0 0 0  
CHAMA........................... 42 69 37 70 / 80 70 20 5  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 73 52 73 / 90 60 20 5  
PECOS........................... 49 72 46 75 / 80 50 20 10  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 68 40 72 / 70 70 20 20  
RED RIVER....................... 38 64 36 67 / 70 70 30 30  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 66 33 67 / 70 70 20 20  
TAOS............................ 43 74 39 76 / 60 60 20 10  
MORA............................ 45 69 42 72 / 70 60 20 20  
ESPANOLA........................ 51 81 49 83 / 70 50 20 5  
SANTA FE........................ 51 76 50 77 / 80 50 10 5  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 80 47 79 / 80 40 5 0  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 81 56 81 / 70 30 10 0  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 83 58 82 / 70 20 10 0  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 85 52 86 / 70 20 5 0  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 83 55 84 / 70 20 5 0  
BELEN........................... 56 86 53 87 / 70 20 5 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 56 84 54 85 / 70 30 5 0  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 85 50 86 / 70 20 5 0  
CORRALES........................ 57 84 54 85 / 70 20 5 0  
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 85 52 86 / 70 20 5 0  
PLACITAS........................ 55 80 53 81 / 70 30 5 0  
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 82 55 83 / 70 20 5 0  
SOCORRO......................... 56 87 54 88 / 70 20 5 0  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 74 48 75 / 80 40 10 0  
TIJERAS......................... 51 76 49 77 / 80 30 10 0  
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 75 46 76 / 80 40 10 0  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 76 41 77 / 80 40 10 0  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 73 46 75 / 70 40 10 0  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 77 47 79 / 80 30 10 0  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 77 48 80 / 80 30 10 0  
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 81 55 84 / 70 30 10 0  
RUIDOSO......................... 45 74 46 77 / 70 50 10 0  
CAPULIN......................... 48 71 48 71 / 50 70 30 40  
RATON........................... 49 75 47 77 / 50 70 20 30  
SPRINGER........................ 51 75 47 79 / 60 60 20 20  
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 74 45 76 / 70 60 20 10  
CLAYTON......................... 53 76 53 78 / 50 50 30 20  
ROY............................. 51 73 50 76 / 70 60 20 20  
CONCHAS......................... 56 83 55 84 / 60 40 30 5  
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 80 53 82 / 70 40 20 5  
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 82 54 83 / 60 30 30 5  
CLOVIS.......................... 56 82 55 85 / 40 40 50 0  
PORTALES........................ 57 84 55 87 / 40 40 50 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 83 56 87 / 60 50 30 0  
ROSWELL......................... 63 90 58 94 / 40 50 30 0  
PICACHO......................... 54 81 52 86 / 50 60 20 0  
ELK............................. 50 81 49 83 / 50 50 20 0  
 
 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ211-214-215-226.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...52  
LONG TERM....44  
AVIATION...33  
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