255
FXUS65 KABQ 201154 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 546 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
- THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL FOCUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS
WELL AS THE RUIDOSO-AREA BURN SCARS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL AFFLICT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1-1.4" WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING DEPICTS MORE SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO
WRAP AROUND A BROAD 596 DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CO AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, WHERE IT WILL BE HARD FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER OK AND NORTH TX FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP SPARK
ROBUST CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
NM BORDER TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN NM
BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS AND POTENTIALLY ALSO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. NBM'S 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A FEW CELLS
WILL PRODUCE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY, MOST LIKELY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THAT SAID, STORMS SHOULD SPEED UP TODAY
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH, WHICH WILL REDUCE THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING A LITTLE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS; EXCEPT WHERE
CELLS MANAGE TO TRAIN. DOWN AROUND RUIDOSO, HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TODAY, MOSTLY ABOVE RECENT BURN SCARS, THEN TRACKING
WESTWARD AROUND 10-20 MPH. ALTHOUGH WE WILL FORGO ISSUING ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RUIDOSO-AREA SCARS TODAY, THERE IS STILL
A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
PRECISE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE MODERATE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE RECENT BURN SCARS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM AROUND 6
DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGES. THE WARMEST DIFFERENCES FROM AVERAGE WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
THERE WILL BE A DOWNTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MIGRATES
WESTWARD NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER. THERE WILL PROBABLY THEN BE AN
UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CLIPPING NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SENDS A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE STATE AND NUDGES THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, AND THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE AT LEAST A FEW OF THESE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
WEEKEND AHEAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THANKS TO
MOISTURE INTRODUCED BY FRIDAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT. IN ADDITION,
THERE ARE SIGNS IN SOME MODELS THAT THE DISTURBANCE THAT CLIPS
NORTHEAST NM ON FRIDAY WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER DRIFTS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING
WEDNESDAY AND MORE-SO THURSDAY, AND AROUND 100 IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY STARTING FRIDAY, CREATING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY EASTWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL VALLEY.
STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 10-25 KT. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET
MICROBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
KT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT ISOLATED AND LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
WITH SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE STRONG AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR TODAY WHEN STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO BECOME VERY STRONG OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 66 95 67 / 5 30 30 80
DULCE........................... 94 54 93 54 / 10 20 30 60
CUBA............................ 88 59 87 58 / 30 30 50 50
GALLUP.......................... 89 58 87 57 / 40 60 60 60
EL MORRO........................ 82 56 82 57 / 70 50 50 50
GRANTS.......................... 88 57 87 58 / 50 40 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 82 57 81 56 / 80 60 70 60
MAGDALENA....................... 85 62 83 63 / 30 20 50 30
DATIL........................... 82 57 79 58 / 60 40 60 40
RESERVE......................... 87 55 85 55 / 80 50 90 70
GLENWOOD........................ 89 56 88 57 / 90 50 80 80
CHAMA........................... 87 53 86 52 / 10 10 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 64 86 65 / 5 10 40 40
PECOS........................... 87 56 87 58 / 10 10 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 87 56 86 57 / 10 5 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 79 48 77 49 / 10 5 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 43 81 45 / 10 5 20 20
TAOS............................ 90 56 90 56 / 10 5 20 20
MORA............................ 85 54 83 55 / 10 5 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 95 65 94 64 / 5 5 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 88 62 88 63 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 61 91 61 / 10 10 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 66 92 66 / 20 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 66 94 65 / 20 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 68 93 67 / 20 10 40 40
BELEN........................... 94 65 93 64 / 20 10 40 30
BERNALILLO...................... 95 67 94 67 / 10 10 30 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 63 92 62 / 20 10 40 30
CORRALES........................ 95 67 94 67 / 20 10 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 64 92 64 / 20 10 40 30
PLACITAS........................ 90 67 91 66 / 20 10 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 94 68 93 67 / 20 10 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 94 68 93 68 / 20 10 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 61 86 61 / 30 10 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 88 61 87 61 / 30 10 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 58 88 58 / 30 10 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 55 89 55 / 20 10 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 57 85 58 / 10 5 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 58 86 58 / 40 10 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 58 84 58 / 50 10 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 63 84 64 / 60 20 70 30
RUIDOSO......................... 78 57 80 59 / 70 20 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 89 57 87 58 / 10 5 5 20
RATON........................... 94 57 92 57 / 10 5 10 30
SPRINGER........................ 93 58 93 59 / 5 5 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 58 88 58 / 5 5 10 30
CLAYTON......................... 96 66 97 66 / 0 5 5 20
ROY............................. 90 62 90 63 / 0 5 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 96 66 97 67 / 0 5 5 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 91 64 91 65 / 0 5 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 67 99 69 / 0 5 0 20
CLOVIS.......................... 92 66 95 68 / 0 5 5 5
PORTALES........................ 93 66 96 68 / 10 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 66 95 68 / 0 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 94 69 98 71 / 10 10 5 5
PICACHO......................... 87 63 89 64 / 30 10 30 10
ELK............................. 82 59 85 60 / 60 20 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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