437
FXUS65 KABQ 061927
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
127 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE AREA. SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY, A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THESE
STORMS WOULD HAVE LITTLE RAINFALL, BUT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.
AN UPPER LOW OVER NV WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE RIDGE. THUS, BY LATE WEDNESDAY, A WEAK HIGH WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WHILE THE LOW, AND BY THAT TIME, A WEAK
TROUGH, EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NM. FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK, BUT IT MAY ENHANCE MOISTURE AND
LIFT JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THIS WILL PROBABLY
AMOUNT TO SPRINKLES WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AT BEST, THOUGH.
BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR WESTERN NM. MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS 1-3 DEGREES COOLER FOR MANY AREAS AS COMPARED WITH
TODAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THERE COULD STILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE NAM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
AND AMOUNTS OF QPF FOR BOTH WED AND THU, BUT IT IS THE OUTLIER
WITH BOTH PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN, SO IT
HAS BEEN LARGELY IGNORED FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE TROUGH MAY
RE-ORGANIZE INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM NM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AND A LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CO AND NE NM. THUS, EXPECT
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NM (ESPECIALLY NE NM) FRI
AND SAT.
ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
RETURN. HURRICANE RACHEL WILL GET PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE
IT'S STILL OVER THE PACIFIC IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER WEAK PACIFIC
LOW SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, THE PACIFIC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY
ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL ON SATURDAY AS RACHEL IS SHEARED
APART. AS ANOTHER MORE POTENT CLOSED LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER
NORTHERN CA ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE MOISTURE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL AND THE ORIGINAL
LOW INTO SOCAL AND AZ SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY REACH AS FAR EAST AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVERALL. HOWEVER, THAT MAY CHANGE STARTING LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THOUGH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF NM, ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH THE POTENT UPPER LOW STILL DIGGING
OVER THE WEST COAST MONDAY, THE NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD GET
DRAWN NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM WOULD ALSO SHEAR APART BEFORE
REACHING NM, BUT THE MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO TAKE AIM ON THE
STATE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, RAIN WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ON TAP. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS IS STILL ONE WEEK OUT, AND THE SPECIFICS WILL
CHANGE. IF FLOW ALOFT IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY VS. SOUTHERLY, WHICH
BOTH THE AI-GFS AND AI-GEFS SHOW, NM MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT'S ALSO
CURIOUS THAT ENSEMBLES KEEP THE PWATS BELOW 0.75" THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE DIVERTED. ALL
THIS TO SAY THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL HARD TO COME BY.
THESE STORMS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF GUSTY WINDS INSTEAD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE
NM. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NM LATE SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO CENTRAL NM SUN/MON. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST EXISTS STARTING LATE MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 79 50 79 / 0 10 10 0
DULCE........................... 43 77 40 76 / 5 20 30 10
CUBA............................ 47 75 46 72 / 5 20 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 45 75 44 77 / 5 10 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 44 72 43 72 / 5 20 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 45 73 44 74 / 5 10 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 45 74 44 74 / 0 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 50 74 49 71 / 0 10 10 10
DATIL........................... 45 72 44 70 / 0 10 10 10
RESERVE......................... 46 78 46 78 / 0 10 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 51 83 52 82 / 0 10 10 20
CHAMA........................... 43 71 41 71 / 10 30 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 72 49 71 / 5 10 10 10
PECOS........................... 46 76 45 73 / 5 20 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 72 42 71 / 5 20 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 37 63 36 63 / 5 20 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 69 30 68 / 5 20 20 20
TAOS............................ 41 75 41 73 / 5 10 10 10
MORA............................ 45 72 42 70 / 0 10 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 49 79 47 77 / 0 10 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 50 75 48 73 / 5 20 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 77 48 75 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 79 53 77 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 80 55 78 / 0 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 82 53 80 / 0 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 5
BELEN........................... 52 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 53 81 52 80 / 0 10 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 51 82 51 80 / 0 10 10 5
CORRALES........................ 53 81 53 80 / 0 10 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 82 51 80 / 0 10 10 5
PLACITAS........................ 53 78 52 76 / 0 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 80 53 79 / 0 10 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 55 82 56 79 / 0 10 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 75 49 73 / 0 20 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 52 76 50 74 / 0 20 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 75 48 73 / 0 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 44 78 43 75 / 0 5 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 74 48 72 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 75 47 72 / 0 5 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 75 48 72 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 79 55 76 / 0 0 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 48 72 49 68 / 0 5 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 48 75 46 73 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 46 80 44 77 / 0 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 45 81 44 77 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 75 45 72 / 0 5 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 54 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 48 78 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 79 54 77 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 50 76 52 74 / 0 0 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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