522
FXUS65 KABQ 110556 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A 500MB HEIGHT OF 596DAM,
DOWN FROM 599DAM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. HOWEVER, THE MONSOON HIGH
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
SO AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH STORMS MOVING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN A RELATIVE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND MORE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAN ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BE REPOSITIONED TO OVER THE
GULF COAST AND WINDS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH, TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS NM
AND BRINGING PWATS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS TROUGHING
ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWS FOR A CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TREND UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD, BRINGING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT THAT WILL BE
ELEVATED ON/NEAR AREA BURN SCARS. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE TWO MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE NEXT
SEVEN, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER HIGH
IS MODELED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST OVER NM LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL CIGS WILL LINGER THRU 3AM FOLLOWED BY
PARTIAL CLEARING THRU SUNRISE. SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS BETWEEN 1PM AND 3PM THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY
WESTWARD INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS THRU SUNSET. DIRECT
HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN, STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS >35KT, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND MID
LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MONSOON HIGH OVER THE
REGION CONTINUES TO BRING UNUSUALLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS,
ALLOWING FOR SOME FIRE GROWTH. HOWEVER, THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
CLIMB TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST. THESE TRENDS WILL
BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND IMPROVED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 98 66 92 / 0 0 30 10
DULCE........................... 56 95 56 89 / 10 30 30 40
CUBA............................ 60 92 59 88 / 20 20 50 30
GALLUP.......................... 60 90 59 86 / 30 30 50 40
EL MORRO........................ 57 85 56 81 / 40 60 50 60
GRANTS.......................... 60 90 59 88 / 40 40 50 50
QUEMADO......................... 59 87 58 82 / 40 60 40 70
MAGDALENA....................... 64 90 63 87 / 10 30 50 40
DATIL........................... 58 85 57 82 / 30 50 30 60
RESERVE......................... 58 92 58 86 / 30 70 30 70
GLENWOOD........................ 63 96 63 91 / 20 60 20 50
CHAMA........................... 54 87 54 81 / 20 40 30 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 90 63 86 / 30 30 20 40
PECOS........................... 58 91 57 89 / 20 40 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 88 56 85 / 30 30 20 50
RED RIVER....................... 49 79 49 75 / 30 50 20 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 84 42 81 / 20 60 20 60
TAOS............................ 59 92 59 87 / 30 30 20 40
MORA............................ 55 89 54 86 / 20 60 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 65 98 65 94 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 91 61 89 / 20 20 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 94 61 91 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 98 67 94 / 30 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 97 70 95 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 99 68 97 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 98 68 96 / 30 20 30 20
BELEN........................... 68 99 67 97 / 20 0 30 10
BERNALILLO...................... 68 100 67 96 / 30 10 30 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 99 65 96 / 30 5 30 10
CORRALES........................ 68 100 67 96 / 30 10 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 99 65 96 / 20 5 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 66 92 / 30 10 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 98 68 95 / 30 20 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 71 102 71 98 / 5 5 40 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 92 61 88 / 30 20 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 64 92 62 89 / 30 20 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 94 61 89 / 30 20 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 96 56 92 / 30 20 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 91 59 88 / 30 30 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 94 61 91 / 20 10 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 92 60 89 / 20 10 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 95 68 93 / 0 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 87 62 86 / 0 20 5 40
CAPULIN......................... 59 89 59 88 / 10 30 20 20
RATON........................... 57 93 57 92 / 10 40 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 57 95 57 95 / 10 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 91 57 91 / 20 30 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 10 5
ROY............................. 64 92 62 94 / 5 5 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 68 100 68 101 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 102 69 102 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 67 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 97 67 96 / 0 5 0 20
ELK............................. 61 94 63 91 / 0 10 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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