849
FXUS65 KABQ 051126 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
426 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 405 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY
WITH BROADER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
MODEST GULF MOISTURE IS ADVECTING INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND
CAN'T RULE OUT LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING FAR EAST CENTRAL NM BY
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE INTRUSION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAWIDE TODAY,
MIXING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT.
THESE VALUES HAVE CONTINUOUSLY TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS, BUT THIS MOMENTUM IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE AS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE NEAR THE 75-90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL DEEPEN TO BETWEEN 993-995MB. THUS, A WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO
WINDY DAY IS IN STORE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UPWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NM THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL NEAR RECORDS FOR THE DATE, BUT SHOULD ULTIMATELY
COME UP JUST SHY.
THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL POISED TO CROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SHARP TROUGH OR WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL BRING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHORT-
LIVED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
MINIMAL, THOUGH THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPERATURES, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. H7 WINDS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 40 AND 60KT BY 12Z FRIDAY ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FROM THE SANDIA MTNS/KCQC SOUTHWARD.
MIXING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING SOME OF THIS
STRONGER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE EARLY FRIDAY. MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY MAY ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS IN THIS
AREA. THUS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ERRATIC GUSTS TO 50+
MPH FROM KCQC, TO VAUGHN, ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY BETWEEN THE 10Z AND 15Z
TIMEFRAME. THEREAFTER, DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING STRONGER WESTERLY
WINDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH LIKELY. THE NAM MODEL HAS
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND IS NOW MORE
CONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS, THUS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
WHILE WESTERLY WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY EVENING, THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN NM, THEN
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY SUNRISE
SATURDAY. EXPECT AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS BELOW GAPS WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS EASTERN NM. BETWEEN THE
PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. MEANWHILE
AT UPPER LEVELS, THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SLIDE DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE INITIAL WAVE, CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SET UP JUST WEST OF THE
BAJA SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO EJECT EASTWARD ON MONDAY. SUNDAY
SHOULD BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY ACROSS NM WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES. BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO NM BY MONDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW ONCE IT EJECTS. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION
VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE ABQ CWA, BUT OTHER MODELS BRING THE LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP. REGARDLESS, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH BATCHES OF
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTING INTO EASTERN NM
THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL NM. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT 1 TO 2 HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS, BUT A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM
WEST TO EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, INCREASING WINDS FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. HOWEVER,
ERCS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE SIGNIFICANT FINE FUEL
LOADING ALSO EXISTS. THUS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN NM, BUT CARE SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN WITH OPEN FLAMES AND
ITEMS THAT MAY CAUSE SPARKS ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. GENERALLY, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY IS FORECAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT A PACIFIC FRONT CROSSING FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL BRING ERRATIC GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS
AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN
EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH RH VALUES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT, THE GREATEST CONCERN
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE
NORMAL. LESS WINDS AND LARGELY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK UPWARD
ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL TREND UPWARD ON MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 31 49 25 / 5 30 20 0
DULCE........................... 60 25 44 15 / 5 40 50 5
CUBA............................ 61 26 44 21 / 0 20 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 21 47 15 / 0 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 25 45 22 / 0 5 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 22 49 17 / 0 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 26 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 33 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 28 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 25 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 70 28 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 22 38 14 / 0 30 50 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 32 46 27 / 0 10 10 0
PECOS........................... 61 30 47 22 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 29 42 21 / 0 5 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 25 33 15 / 0 5 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 19 39 9 / 0 5 20 10
TAOS............................ 62 24 46 17 / 0 5 20 10
MORA............................ 61 28 46 18 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 67 29 53 21 / 0 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 34 48 27 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 32 51 24 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 40 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 37 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 35 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 37 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 32 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 37 56 30 / 0 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 32 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 70 36 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 33 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 38 53 31 / 0 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 37 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 75 37 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 35 48 28 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 36 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 34 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 68 30 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 31 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 66 33 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 35 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 41 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 65 40 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 65 30 50 17 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 70 26 52 17 / 0 0 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 71 27 55 20 / 0 0 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 30 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 73 40 60 26 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 71 36 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 39 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 38 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 41 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 79 42 66 32 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 80 42 68 32 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 38 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 42 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 77 41 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 74 40 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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