613
FXUS65 KABQ 091147 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST, DRY
LIGHTNING, AND A RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
- DRY AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD
OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WHILST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SURGING
DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS SUNRISE IN CENTRAL NM, ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL STILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE GROUND GIVEN THE LOW BOUNDARY LAYER HUMIDITY. COVERAGE
WILL EXPAND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO
GENERATE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHER COMPARED
TO MONDAY AND STORMS WILL MOVE FASTER GIVEN THE INCREASING
BACKGROUND FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NM. DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE WEST WILL
FAVOR VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PARTICULARLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SO STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER. STORMS MAY TRY TO CLUSTER TOGETHER IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS WHERE ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INTERESTINGLY, HI-RES MODELS ARE SHUTTING DOWN CONVECTION IN
THE LATE EVENING , BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE KEEPING IT AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, WOULD HEDGE TOWARDS THE LATER END TIME FOR
STORMS.
A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE
WEST OVERNIGHT, WITH WESTERLY BREEZES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SHUT DOWN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH A DOWNSLOPING WEST WIND WILL
INCREASE TEMPERATURES, WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN EASTERN NM (UP TO
6 DEGREES). CURRENTLY, THERE IS A AROUND A 60% CHANCE THAT ROSWELL
REACHES 105F ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MODERATE CHANCES OF 100F+ ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST NM AND EVEN THE LOWER RGV NEAR SOCORRO.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
BREEZES WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO
THE EAST IN EASTERN NM AS A BACKDOOR FRONT SURGES SOUTH AND
WESTWARD. STORMS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ALONG THE FRONT IN TEXAS AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
THURSDAY NIGHT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE EAST WIND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND IF THERE IS ANY CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NM THAT COULD FURTHER INCREASE POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS. THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FOCUSING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. RECYCLED MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR THE
CONTINUATION OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NM. THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FROM SEVERE STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN
THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WITH DRYLINE
STORMS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHILE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE REMAINS DRY AND HOT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER THE CONT. DIVIDE WILL TREK NORTH AND
EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING, REACHING THE RGV BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z.
AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM. STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN NM. STORMS WILL CLUSTER TOGETHER THIS EVENING IN EASTERN
NM AND COULD PERSIST AS LATE AS 06Z IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION
TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS (UP TO 35 KNOTS) IN FAR WESTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN NM. WINDS WILL ATTEMPT TO TURN AROUND TO THE WEST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL DOMINATE IN MANY AREAS. LLWS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN NORTHERN NM AFTER 03Z, IMPACTING TERMINALS SUCH AS
KAXX AND KRTN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AROUND THE STATE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN FAR
WESTERN NM AND IN THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BE VERY DRY ACROSS WESTERN
NM, WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 5% NEAR FARMINGTON. THERE
WILL BE SOME MOISTURE IN CENTRAL NM, BUT IT WILL STILL BE DRY WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 15 TO 25% RANGE. AS A RESULT, GUSTY SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, SIMILAR TO MONDAY. IT WILL BE MORE MOIST
ACROSS THE EAST WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND WETTING
RAINFALL IS MORE LIKELY.
THE DRY AIR IN WESTERN NM TODAY PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER COMPARED TO TUESDAY, WITH SINGLE DIGIT
RH IN MOST AREAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
STATE, BUT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN UPGRADE OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. WEST WINDS TREND WEAKER INTO
THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. IT WILL REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE WEST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE RAIN CHANCES
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. STORM COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS EACH DAY, WHERE MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY EXCEED 0.5" IN MOST AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 56 93 55 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 86 44 87 45 / 40 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 85 52 88 53 / 30 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 46 90 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 85 50 87 50 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 89 52 91 53 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 87 50 89 51 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 86 59 91 59 / 30 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 84 54 89 54 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 91 48 95 50 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 95 53 98 56 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 78 43 81 44 / 40 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 59 88 59 / 30 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 84 54 88 54 / 30 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 52 85 51 / 40 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 71 44 76 45 / 40 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 45 80 44 / 30 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 84 51 88 50 / 30 10 0 0
MORA............................ 82 51 88 51 / 30 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 91 57 95 56 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 59 89 58 / 30 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 56 91 56 / 30 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 66 94 65 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 62 96 64 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 62 98 63 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 62 96 63 / 20 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 95 59 99 60 / 20 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 94 62 97 62 / 20 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 59 98 61 / 20 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 94 63 97 63 / 20 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 60 98 62 / 20 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 90 63 93 62 / 20 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 62 96 62 / 20 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 97 65 101 65 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 59 90 59 / 30 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 88 58 92 58 / 20 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 56 92 56 / 20 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 55 93 54 / 20 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 57 88 57 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 57 92 57 / 20 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 58 92 58 / 20 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 91 65 95 66 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 84 60 88 63 / 20 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 84 50 89 53 / 40 20 0 0
RATON........................... 88 50 93 53 / 30 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 90 53 95 53 / 30 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 53 90 54 / 50 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 93 61 97 62 / 30 10 0 0
ROY............................. 88 56 94 57 / 50 20 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 96 63 101 62 / 50 30 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 60 98 62 / 50 30 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 66 102 68 / 30 30 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 94 66 100 68 / 20 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 95 66 101 69 / 20 20 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 64 101 66 / 30 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 97 68 104 69 / 5 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 61 98 65 / 40 10 0 0
ELK............................. 91 60 96 64 / 20 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ101-105.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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