958
FXUS65 KABQ 012101
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SOME STORMS THIS WEEK OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS
WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF,
AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE
SURFACE, AND A RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHWEST US
COAST, GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE ISN'T THAT RICH YET, SO ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. SOME CELLS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN.
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING, DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY VARY
FROM THE 30S TO 40S F ALONG THE CENTRAL VALLEY, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND AS FAR WEST AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHER
READINGS IN THE 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
THIS WILL ENABLE MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
COMMENCE BEFORE NOON TUESDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND ALSO ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHERE SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE GULF
MOISTURE. PWATS OVER EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
REACH AROUND 1.00-1.30", AROUND 0.80-1.00" OVER THE CENTRAL VALLEY
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND AROUND 0.50-0.80" ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SO, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES
A A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MAY ACCUMULATE
OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING SOME OF THE VULNERABLE RECENT BURN SCARS, AND OVER 2
INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR LINCOLN
COUNTY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS. AS
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG
NM'S EASTERN BORDER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY GRADUALLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
IT MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER NM FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
SPOTTIER AND DRIER VARIETY CONVECTION OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NM. PWATS WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW
RECENT BURN SCARS MAY BE HIGHER DUE TO ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM
TUESDAYS STORMS. THERE WILL BE A DOWNTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES AND DRIER AIR MAKES GRADUAL PROGRESS INTO
THE STATE. SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK
TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN
PLAINS, THEN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD ON FRIDAY.
MODELS VARY BUT DO GENERALLY SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND POTENTIALLY ALSO IN THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, DRIER AIR WILL PERVADE
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO AROUND 12 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, READINGS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MOST PLACES ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TX
BORDER. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST IN DUST-PRONE LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. GULF MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
ENABLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND ALSO ON THE ADJACENT EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS CONCHAS LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS FORECAST AGAIN WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY LOW
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE RELEGATED WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY, WHERE SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE. GUSTY AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY, WHEN CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN BE
FOUND FROM FARMINGTON TO GALLUP AND ZUNI. CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN OVER WESTERN
AREAS STARTING THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS MAKING MORE PROGRESS
OVER THE STATE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR AND POTENTIALLY OVER
50 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 90 55 89 / 0 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 44 86 43 83 / 0 10 10 30
CUBA............................ 54 83 49 79 / 0 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 47 85 48 84 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 51 83 50 80 / 0 20 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 53 86 50 82 / 0 20 20 50
QUEMADO......................... 52 83 50 81 / 0 20 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 60 82 53 78 / 0 60 40 60
DATIL........................... 54 80 51 77 / 0 50 20 60
RESERVE......................... 49 90 48 87 / 0 20 10 50
GLENWOOD........................ 52 95 51 92 / 0 10 5 60
CHAMA........................... 45 78 42 75 / 0 20 20 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 79 55 75 / 0 40 20 60
PECOS........................... 53 79 48 75 / 10 70 50 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 78 49 74 / 0 50 20 60
RED RIVER....................... 43 69 40 66 / 0 70 30 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 72 41 69 / 5 70 30 80
TAOS............................ 51 80 48 77 / 0 50 30 60
MORA............................ 52 75 48 71 / 5 70 50 80
ESPANOLA........................ 57 87 54 83 / 0 50 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 60 80 54 76 / 10 60 20 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 83 52 79 / 10 50 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 87 60 83 / 0 50 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 88 57 85 / 0 50 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 91 56 87 / 0 50 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 30
BELEN........................... 60 90 54 87 / 0 50 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 63 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 90 53 86 / 0 50 20 20
CORRALES........................ 64 90 58 86 / 0 40 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 90 55 86 / 0 50 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 64 85 58 81 / 5 50 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 89 58 85 / 0 40 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 66 93 59 88 / 5 60 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 81 53 78 / 0 60 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 59 82 53 79 / 0 60 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 82 51 79 / 5 70 30 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 83 48 79 / 5 80 40 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 77 49 74 / 5 70 50 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 83 49 79 / 5 60 40 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 81 50 77 / 5 70 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 84 57 81 / 5 70 40 50
RUIDOSO......................... 58 77 52 74 / 10 80 50 80
CAPULIN......................... 50 75 46 69 / 5 60 50 60
RATON........................... 51 79 48 74 / 0 60 50 60
SPRINGER........................ 53 79 50 75 / 5 60 60 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 76 50 72 / 10 70 50 80
CLAYTON......................... 57 84 53 74 / 10 50 60 60
ROY............................. 56 79 50 72 / 5 60 70 60
CONCHAS......................... 60 86 54 79 / 5 50 80 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 82 52 76 / 5 60 70 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 90 56 80 / 10 40 80 70
CLOVIS.......................... 62 89 56 78 / 20 30 80 90
PORTALES........................ 61 90 56 80 / 20 30 80 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 87 54 79 / 10 60 80 70
ROSWELL......................... 65 90 59 82 / 20 60 80 50
PICACHO......................... 59 84 54 78 / 20 70 60 70
ELK............................. 57 84 53 79 / 20 70 60 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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