296
FXUS65 KABQ 021341 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
741 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
..CORRECTED SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 539 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS AZ/NM AND WILL
RESULT IN LOWER PWATS, LIKELY MEASURED WITH THE UPCOMING 18Z ABQ
UA SOUNDING. THE DOWNTREND IN PWATS IS CORRELATED WITH A DOWNTICK
IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN. HOWEVER, THE
DOWNTICK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THURSDAY AND PULLS A
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTH INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL BEGIN TO
CLIMB BACK UP THURSDAY AND RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE UPTREND IN PWATS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH VALUES SET TO RISE WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS INTO THE MIX.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WON'T BE A PROBLEM, BUT THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE BACK WEST INTO THE REGION AND EXTEND A STUBBORN
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWEST ACROSS NM. THE UPPER HIGH WILL CAUSE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NM INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A MODERATE HEAT RISK. HOWEVER, RIDGING IN
THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD
WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLIFICATION AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC
FEATURES FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE ABUNDANT
AVAILABILITY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO
RETREAT BACK TO THE EAST, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WET PERIOD
TO UNFOLD BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH KROW BEING THE ONLY TAF WORTHY OF A PROB30 GROUP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN WETTING STORMS IS
FORECAST TODAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE BACK OVER THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN AN UPTREND IN HUMIDITY AND DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. OTHERWISE, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
EASTERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL NM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE
INCREASED MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 86 59 85 62 / 0 5 5 20
DULCE........................... 84 44 84 49 / 0 0 0 30
CUBA............................ 83 55 83 57 / 0 0 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 83 52 83 55 / 0 0 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 80 52 80 55 / 0 0 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 85 55 84 57 / 0 0 40 40
QUEMADO......................... 81 55 81 58 / 0 5 50 50
MAGDALENA....................... 82 60 82 61 / 5 5 40 50
DATIL........................... 79 55 79 57 / 0 5 50 40
RESERVE......................... 87 53 86 57 / 0 5 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 93 58 90 59 / 0 5 30 50
CHAMA........................... 77 48 78 50 / 10 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 59 82 61 / 0 0 5 30
PECOS........................... 84 56 85 57 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 52 81 56 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 71 45 73 47 / 10 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 39 79 40 / 10 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 83 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 82 51 83 53 / 0 0 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 88 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE........................ 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 58 88 59 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 67 91 67 / 10 5 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 64 91 65 / 0 5 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 63 93 64 / 0 5 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 40
BELEN........................... 91 63 92 62 / 0 5 5 40
BERNALILLO...................... 90 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 61 92 61 / 0 5 0 40
CORRALES........................ 90 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 63 92 63 / 0 5 5 40
PLACITAS........................ 87 65 89 65 / 10 0 0 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 40
SOCORRO......................... 93 68 94 67 / 0 5 20 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 60 86 59 / 10 5 0 40
TIJERAS......................... 86 61 86 61 / 10 0 0 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 57 88 57 / 10 0 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 54 90 54 / 10 0 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 58 86 58 / 10 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 58 87 58 / 10 5 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 59 87 58 / 0 5 10 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 64 90 64 / 0 5 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 81 59 83 59 / 5 5 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 85 56 86 57 / 0 5 0 0
RATON........................... 88 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 90 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 92 65 95 67 / 0 5 0 0
ROY............................. 89 58 91 61 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 97 66 99 67 / 10 5 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 65 94 65 / 10 5 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 70 99 69 / 10 5 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 96 69 98 69 / 10 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 96 70 99 69 / 10 10 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 68 98 68 / 10 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 97 71 100 71 / 10 5 0 10
PICACHO......................... 92 64 94 64 / 20 5 50 10
ELK............................. 89 60 91 60 / 20 5 60 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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