498
FXUS65 KABQ 181944
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL FOCUS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY, THEN MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.10", THE HIGHEST SO FAR THIS
MONSOON SEASON, ALONG WITH 1200 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIGHT EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW AROUND 5-15KT. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS
THE H5 LOW IS STILL SPINNING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT DRAPED OVER CO AND NORTHERN NM WHERE A 594DM H5 HIGH CENTER
HAS TAKEN SHAPE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST AND WEST INTO NEARBY VALLEYS
AND HIGHLANDS THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE CAMS SHOW QPF
FOOTPRINTS >1" WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING >2" IN AN HOUR BASED ON ABUNDANT
MOIST INSTABILITY AND SLOW STEERING FLOW. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. A SECOND
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS SHOWN BY SEVERAL CAMS THIS EVENING
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE IN CENTRAL NM. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO
APPEARS HEAVY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1" IN THE ABQ METRO FROM
REFS/HREF LPMM QPF.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH STEERING FLOW MORE EAST TO
WEST FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ANOTHER FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA. HREF/REFS 24-HR LPMM QPF SHOWS
SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL BUT >1" AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MOIST
INSTABILITY IS LIMITED OVER NORTHERN NM AS DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THAT AREA. A NOTABLE
DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
BY MONDAY, THE H5 LOW SPINNING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL FINALLY
MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME FOCUSED CLOSER TO EL PASO. THE H5 HIGH WILL
BE EXPANDING AND HELP TO INCREASE EAST-WEST STEERING FLOW OVER NM
(10-20KT). PWATS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
STILL IN PLACE. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF >1" FROM THE STRONGER STORM
CLUSTERS. WPC STILL SHOWS A LARGE 'SLIGHT RISK' FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST NM. EASTERN NM WILL SEE MORE LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE AS 500MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS RISE ABOVE 15F EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS EL PASO
INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AND BROADENS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD OK AND NORTH TX. THIS WILL FORCE
STEERING FLOW MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS OF NM. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 'SLIGHT RISK' AREA FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST NM BUT THAT MAY EXPAND BASED ON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. 500MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL RISE TO OVER
20F OVER NORTHEAST NM SO A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING IS SHOWN
WITH FEW STORMS EXPECTED.
STORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER FAR WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING WEST INTO EASTERN NM. ANY
STORMS THAT FORM CLOSER TO THE AZ/NM WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE H5
LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL WILL BE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN AZ
WHICH WILL HELP TO BOOST LIFT OVER FAR WESTERN NM. STORM CHANCES
FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR
WEST THE H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS INTO NM. THE GFS AND ECMWF SPREAD DRIER
UPPER LEVEL AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM BOTH DAYS WITH HOT TEMPS FOR EASTERN NM. A RETURN TO
LOW 100S IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE MAY RETURN TO NORTHEAST NM BY FRIDAY
AS A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SHRA/TS WILL CONTINUE FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY BEFORE
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS
THRU THIS EVENING. DIRECT HITS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL
HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THERE IS NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
THEN OVER FAR WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STEERING FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 92 64 95 / 20 10 20 5
DULCE........................... 48 90 50 92 / 20 20 10 10
CUBA............................ 55 84 57 86 / 40 30 10 30
GALLUP.......................... 53 84 54 86 / 50 50 30 40
EL MORRO........................ 54 80 55 81 / 50 70 40 70
GRANTS.......................... 55 84 56 86 / 50 50 30 50
QUEMADO......................... 55 81 56 81 / 60 70 50 70
MAGDALENA....................... 61 83 62 84 / 40 40 30 40
DATIL........................... 56 79 57 79 / 40 60 40 60
RESERVE......................... 53 86 54 86 / 50 90 40 80
GLENWOOD........................ 55 89 56 89 / 50 70 40 80
CHAMA........................... 48 84 50 86 / 30 20 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 84 63 87 / 20 20 10 10
PECOS........................... 54 83 55 86 / 30 50 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 84 56 87 / 10 20 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 43 79 44 81 / 10 20 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 79 43 82 / 10 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 51 86 53 90 / 10 20 5 20
MORA............................ 52 81 53 85 / 30 30 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 60 91 62 94 / 20 20 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 62 87 / 30 40 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 87 59 90 / 30 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 90 67 92 / 50 50 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 91 64 93 / 50 40 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 92 64 95 / 50 40 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 91 67 94 / 40 30 20 20
BELEN........................... 61 92 62 93 / 40 40 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 64 93 66 95 / 30 30 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 91 61 93 / 50 50 20 20
CORRALES........................ 64 93 66 95 / 40 30 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 91 63 93 / 50 40 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 64 89 66 91 / 30 40 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 92 66 94 / 40 30 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 66 93 67 94 / 40 50 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 84 60 86 / 40 60 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 57 87 58 89 / 40 60 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 87 55 89 / 30 50 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 87 52 89 / 30 50 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 82 55 84 / 30 40 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 85 56 87 / 50 50 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 83 57 84 / 50 50 20 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 84 62 85 / 60 70 30 60
RUIDOSO......................... 56 77 57 78 / 50 80 30 70
CAPULIN......................... 53 83 54 88 / 20 10 5 5
RATON........................... 54 88 54 93 / 10 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 55 88 56 93 / 10 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 55 87 / 20 30 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 62 90 63 95 / 10 10 10 0
ROY............................. 59 85 60 89 / 20 20 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 92 64 96 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 87 62 90 / 30 20 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 93 65 95 / 20 10 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 90 64 92 / 40 20 20 0
PORTALES........................ 63 90 64 92 / 40 20 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 90 64 92 / 30 30 20 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 91 67 93 / 50 20 30 5
PICACHO......................... 61 86 61 87 / 30 40 20 30
ELK............................. 57 83 57 84 / 30 60 40 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
FLOOD WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page