013
FXUS65 KABQ 250750
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1250 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
- WINTER STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOCUSED
OVER CENTRAL, EAST-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN NM. ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL KEEP PERSISTENT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
TONIGHT IS HEADING INTO THE FINAL STRETCH OF THIS WINTER STORM EVENT
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE INITIAL H5 LOW HAS OPENED AND IS BEING
EJECTED EASTWARD OVER WEST TX WHILE THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE POLAR JET IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS WESTERN NM. AS SUCH, THE WAA
AHEAD OF INITIAL H5 LOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AND THE THREAT
OF MIXED PHASE WINTRY PRECIPITATION LIKE FREEZING RAIN HAS DWINDLED
WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
RADAR SHOWS A BATCH OF SNOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO.
THIS WILL BE ALBUQUERQUE'S BEST AND ONLY CHANCE AT SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THIS EVENT WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTO THE FOOTHILLS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
SOCORRO COUNTY AS WELL. FURTHER SOUTH, A ROBUST BATCH OF SNOW
PERHAPS WITH SOME MELTING INVOLVED IS MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE TOWARD THE SACRAMENTO MTS AND
RUIDOSO AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW THERE OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BATCH NEAR ALBUQUERQUE EXPECTED TO REACH
THAT SAME AREA NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHTER SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LIKE THE JEMEZ
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO'S KEEPING WINTRY CONDITIONS GOING
THERE A FEW MORE HOURS IN PLACES RANGING FROM ESPANOLA TO LOS
ALAMOS TO SANTA FE. OTHERWISE, SNOW WILL ALSO LINGER LONGEST OVER
PORTIONS OF GUADALUPE, LINCOLN, DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING MIDDAY.
CANCELLATIONS AND EXPIRATIONS OF CURRENT WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS
WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BITTER COLD REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS ALL AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SINGLE-DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS TONIGHT WILL WARM INTO THE 20S SUNDAY, FALLING BACK TO NEAR
OR JUST BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS OF EASTERN NM, INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM SANTA FE
NORTHWARD THROUGH ESPANOLA TO TAOS.
WHILE MANY AREAS WILL SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS BY LATE DAY SUNDAY,
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE CLIP
THAT PORTION OF THE STATE SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. LIGHT FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING ARE LIKELY FROM THIS
OVER AREAS OF COLFAX, MORA, UNION, AND HARDING COUNTIES BY MONDAY
MORNING. MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING WITH
MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NM FINALLY REACHING BACK ABOVE FREEZING
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THIS WINTER EVENT BEGAN. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF EAST-CENTRAL NM
SOUTHWARD INTO CHAVES COUNTY WHERE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL LIMIT
DIURNAL HEATING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH CONTINUED VERY COLD
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MANY
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO TEENS.
HOWEVER, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS DAY WITH MANY AREAS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TAKES
THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL MORE DEGREES WARMER. THOSE
AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS DOWN TOWARD
ROSWELL THAT ARE SEEING THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
WINTER EVENT WILL SEE A TEMPERED WARMING TREND, EVEN THIS FAR OUT
INTO THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THESE AREAS WILL FINALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A CONTINUED STABLE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOKS FAVORED TO END THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
IFR CONDITIONS FROM SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, INCLUDING KSRR AND KROW, THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ON THE NORTHERN
END OF THE SNOW SHIELD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THROUGH MID SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL NM AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS
KBRG, KONM, AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SNOW
AT KAEG, KABQ, AND KSAF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THE LATEST HI
RES GUIDANCE SHOWS AN SLIGHT NUDGE NORTHWARD. AN AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KABQ DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1 INCH. CLEARING LOW CEILINGS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MID
TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM, INCLUDING KROW, BEFORE CLEARING OUT MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FROM VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM (RATON PASS AND NORTHERN UNION COUNTY) LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. FINALLY, FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER
PECOS RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KROW, AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
DUE TO THE FRESH SNOW COVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WINTER
WEATHER EXITS THE STATE TODAY WEST TO EAST, LASTING THE LONGEST OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS ZONES. BITTER COLD REMAINS
EACH NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE-
DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME NORTHERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWS DIP BELOW ZERO.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND WARM UP THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 36 12 37 12 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 34 -2 38 -1 / 20 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 33 6 35 8 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 38 2 41 3 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 9 39 14 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 4 43 6 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 8 39 12 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 35 17 37 20 / 40 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 32 12 37 17 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 44 10 50 13 / 20 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 51 15 53 17 / 30 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 27 -4 32 2 / 20 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 10 33 13 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 27 4 36 11 / 30 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 29 4 33 10 / 20 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 20 0 26 7 / 30 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 -12 32 -8 / 20 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 30 -2 34 1 / 20 20 0 0
MORA............................ 31 4 42 11 / 20 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 35 4 39 6 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 10 32 14 / 30 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 30 7 32 11 / 30 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 19 38 20 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 19 40 20 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 16 43 16 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 40 18 41 19 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 38 10 40 9 / 30 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 16 41 16 / 20 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 11 41 11 / 30 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 16 42 17 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 13 41 13 / 30 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 35 17 36 18 / 30 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 17 41 18 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 40 15 42 15 / 50 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 13 34 14 / 30 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 16 34 17 / 40 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 7 35 8 / 30 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 29 0 36 0 / 40 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 22 5 30 10 / 40 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 30 9 34 10 / 50 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 6 34 7 / 50 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 9 35 12 / 80 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 10 35 13 / 90 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 0 39 13 / 5 30 0 0
RATON........................... 27 -2 42 9 / 10 30 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 -2 45 7 / 5 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 1 41 11 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 2 40 19 / 0 40 0 0
ROY............................. 26 0 37 11 / 5 20 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 1 39 7 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 25 2 35 12 / 40 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 -2 35 5 / 20 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 22 0 28 8 / 40 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 23 -4 28 5 / 50 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 -5 29 -1 / 50 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 23 -2 25 -1 / 60 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 27 5 36 10 / 70 0 0 0
ELK............................. 30 5 41 9 / 80 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NMZ202>204-206-208-227-228-230-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ210>218-
221>224-229-232>234-237.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
FOR NMZ212-216>218-221>234-239.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ207-
219-220-225-241.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ226-235-
236-238>240.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST MONDAY
FOR NMZ235>238-240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...71
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