098
FXUS65 KABQ 301119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 500 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH INTO MID WEEK.
- DRY STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA BORDERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
CONTINUED BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND DRAWING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM.
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RISING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND THIS MOISTURE WILL FUEL A ROUND OF
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION BY MID DAY. THE
CAMS ARE INCREASINGLY BULLISH ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER OF NM LATER TODAY,
BUT THE BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MOSTLY DRY CONVECTION IS FORECAST
ACROSS CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NAM IS ADVERTISING DCAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 2,000J/KG WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT. IN ADDITION, CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN THE
RGV THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION TO VISIBILITIES. SIMILAR
SETUP ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM BRINGING INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
A SLIGHTLY GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM IS
ADVERTISING EVEN HIGHER DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2,500J/KG ACROSS
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT BEING
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD GOING INTO LATE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE MONSOON HIGH TO GET
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. PWATS WILL TREND UP SLOWLY IN THIS
REGIME, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PWATS TREND UP, STEERING FLOW WILL TREND DOWN, BRINGING A THREAT
FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING TO RUIDOSO. BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A FOUR CORNERS HIGH OF
AROUND 594-596DAM AT 500MB AND A CONTINUED UPSWING IN PWATS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH A COUPLE
OF EXCEPTIONS. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM ISO/SCT DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN BLOWING DUST IN THE
KABQ/KAEG/KSAF AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT KROW
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BY MID DAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK BRINGING VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF WESTERN
NM, WHILE GULF MOISTURE BRINGS IMPROVED HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS TO EASTERN AREAS. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE A
LIMITER FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE AZ BORDER
WHERE WINDS WILL EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLD. OTHERWISE, VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH THE NUMBER OF
HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY EXPANDING EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHILE CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN
NM. A FEW DRY STORMS OR VIRGA SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL NM
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS AND NEW IGNITIONS POSSIBLE. THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD FROM THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING THE MONSOON HIGH TO TAKE HOLD AND ENDING THE THREAT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
IMPROVED HUMIDITY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 51 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 84 44 85 42 / 20 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 84 52 86 51 / 10 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 85 45 85 43 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 82 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 87 49 87 47 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 52 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 86 59 87 58 / 10 5 5 0
DATIL........................... 83 53 83 52 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 87 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 91 52 92 51 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 77 43 78 43 / 20 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 60 84 60 / 20 20 0 5
PECOS........................... 85 52 86 52 / 30 30 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 51 81 51 / 20 30 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 74 42 74 41 / 20 30 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 38 77 38 / 20 40 5 5
TAOS............................ 84 50 84 50 / 10 20 0 0
MORA............................ 81 50 82 50 / 20 40 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 91 56 91 55 / 10 20 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 85 58 85 57 / 20 20 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 56 89 55 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 61 92 61 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 64 92 64 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 58 95 57 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 63 93 61 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 94 61 95 60 / 10 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 93 61 94 60 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 58 94 57 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 93 61 94 60 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 59 94 58 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 89 63 89 62 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 63 92 62 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 96 67 97 65 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 58 85 57 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 87 58 87 58 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 56 87 56 / 20 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 51 89 51 / 20 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 54 84 54 / 30 20 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 57 88 56 / 20 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 57 86 57 / 30 5 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 63 89 63 / 30 0 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 80 55 82 55 / 40 10 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 85 52 85 50 / 30 20 10 10
RATON........................... 89 52 88 50 / 30 30 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 91 54 90 52 / 20 30 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 53 85 53 / 30 40 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 92 62 91 62 / 30 20 20 20
ROY............................. 88 59 88 57 / 20 20 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 95 64 94 63 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 62 90 61 / 40 30 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 67 94 65 / 20 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 90 64 90 64 / 60 40 40 30
PORTALES........................ 94 65 93 65 / 60 50 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 65 93 65 / 40 20 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 93 67 95 67 / 50 30 40 20
PICACHO......................... 88 61 89 61 / 70 20 40 20
ELK............................. 84 58 86 58 / 60 20 40 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ105.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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