145
FXUS65 KABQ 091146 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
- A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON AREA BURN
SCARS EACH DAY FROM DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM, MAINLY IN UNION COUNTY.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
NM THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE TODAY AS A DRY SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO AZ AND AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVES WEST FROM
SOUTH TX. A 60KT SPEED MAX ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL FORCE AN IMPRESSIVE DRY INTRUSION INTO NORTHWEST NM THIS
AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM WEDNESDAY MAY LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS TODAY AS SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
HELP TO FORCE TEMPS ABOVE 100F AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS SO A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THIS EVENING. FALLING PWATS OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND
SHEAR OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX
WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM.
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SCANT OVER THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF NM. ANOTHER DAY OF DRY NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL HELP TO FORCE
MAX TEMPS ABOVE 100F AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER RGV. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY, INCLUDING THE ABQ
METRO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX FROM TODAY WILL BE EXITING
THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY AND HELP TO ASSIST WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER NORTHEAST NM. A COUPLE MORE STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FORCING A MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE
STORMS SOUTHWEST ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE
GAP WIND IS POSSIBLE AS NBM75TH PERCENTILE GUSTS AVERAGE 35 TO 45
MPH FROM NEAR SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL HELP TO SET THE
STAGE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN SATURDAY. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 598DM
OVER CENTRAL CO AND ALLOW STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE NORTH-SOUTH
OVER NM. A 40KT JET FORMING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH WILL ALSO PROVIDE BROADER ASCENT OVER EASTERN NM. MEANWHILE,
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION WILL BE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST NM AS THE
INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING WEST FROM TX. A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AS PWATS RISE
ABOVE NORMAL AND MODEL INSTABILITY IS IMPRESSIVE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A FLOOD WATCH
SCENARIO IN THE RUIDOSO AREA SATURDAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE
ANOTHER MOIST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST ACROSS THE RGV INTO MORE OF
WESTERN NM FOR SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY SUNDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW
THE INVERTED TROUGH DAMPENS INTO THE BROADER SYNOPTIC CIRCULATION
EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
TO NEAR 599DM OVER WY AND THE DAKOTAS WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OFF THE BAJA MOVES NORTH TOWARD SOCAL. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE A
SHIFT TO DEEP LAYER EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RICH MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE
REGION BUT A LARGE DRY INTRUSION ABOVE 500MB MAY LIMIT CONVECTION
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY. WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN NM STAND THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
MID LEVEL CIGS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN BETWEEN 12PM AND 3PM THEN MOVE SOUTH AND EAST AT 10-15KT
INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF KABQ TODAY. A DIRECT HIT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS >40KT WITH BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. A COUPLE STORMS OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM MAY BECOME STRONG
BETWEEN 2PM AND 6PM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NORTHWEST NM WEDNESDAY EVENING MAY LEAD
TO NEW FIRE STARTS AS A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
AND ERC VALUES >90TH PERCENTILE. MEANWHILE, STORMS WITH SMALL
FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. ANY STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NM WILL BE DRY WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS IN STORE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AND FEWER STORMS OVERALL. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE NORTHEAST NM WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
STORMS WILL FORCE A MOIST BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CHAIN
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH WETTING
RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLOODING WILL INCREASE IN THE RUIDOSO AREA.
OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
WEST TOWARD THE AZ BORDER SUNDAY WITH INCREASING STORM CHANCES FOR
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 62 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 95 48 95 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 59 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 93 58 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 90 59 90 58 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 94 58 95 57 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 90 60 91 60 / 5 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 90 65 92 66 / 50 10 10 0
DATIL........................... 87 61 89 62 / 30 10 5 0
RESERVE......................... 96 55 97 56 / 20 10 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 100 59 100 60 / 40 20 30 10
CHAMA........................... 87 49 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 65 91 66 / 40 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 91 58 92 59 / 10 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 56 89 56 / 30 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 79 49 79 48 / 30 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 44 84 44 / 20 0 10 5
TAOS............................ 91 53 92 54 / 20 0 0 0
MORA............................ 87 54 88 55 / 30 0 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 96 61 98 62 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 91 64 93 65 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 61 96 62 / 20 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 98 70 99 71 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 67 100 67 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 101 65 104 67 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 68 101 69 / 10 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 101 65 103 66 / 10 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 101 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 100 64 103 65 / 10 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 101 67 103 68 / 10 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 65 103 66 / 10 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 96 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 100 67 102 68 / 10 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 102 71 104 72 / 20 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 93 64 94 64 / 10 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 93 63 95 64 / 10 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 60 96 60 / 10 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 56 97 57 / 10 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 58 91 58 / 20 10 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 61 96 61 / 20 10 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 63 94 63 / 20 20 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 68 97 68 / 20 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 87 63 88 62 / 40 20 40 10
CAPULIN......................... 87 53 86 53 / 60 20 60 40
RATON........................... 91 53 91 53 / 50 10 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 93 55 93 55 / 50 5 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 56 91 57 / 50 5 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 95 61 92 61 / 40 30 10 50
ROY............................. 91 59 91 59 / 30 10 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 100 66 100 65 / 20 20 5 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 64 97 64 / 30 20 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 69 101 67 / 20 30 0 60
CLOVIS.......................... 100 68 100 67 / 0 20 0 40
PORTALES........................ 100 70 101 69 / 0 20 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 100 70 100 69 / 10 20 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 102 72 103 72 / 0 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 97 66 98 66 / 20 20 5 0
ELK............................. 94 64 95 63 / 50 10 30 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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