512
FXUS65 KABQ 231916
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
116 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 45 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND
A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
- A BLUSTERY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT AND
STRONG NORTHEAST CROSSWINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
FROM THE EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED, GUSTY, AND POSSIBLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSE A RISK OF
BLOWING DUST AND NEW FIRE STARTS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND IS BRINGING A COOLER TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM TODAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN AZ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE NM BOOTHEEL. 500MB PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO BETWEEN 586-588DAM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING THAT WILL SEND HIGH TEMPERATURES SOARING
20-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH A NUMBER OF NEW DAILY RECORDS
FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
A 589DAM 500MB HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR MOST
LOCALES. MORE DAILY RECORDS ARE IN LINE TO BE BROKEN WEDNESDAY,
WITH A FEW SITES POSSIBLY CHALLENGING THE MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS
THAT WERE ESTABLISHED THIS PAST SATURDAY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
SHIFT SOUTH SOME ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE
OVER THE TOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM, BRINGING A BOUT OF GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS WITH DAYTIME MIXING. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE INROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THEN SWING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT AND STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ARE SHOWING UP
IN THE ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE. A STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WIND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND THE GFS MOS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING ADVISORY-TYPE SPEEDS AT KABQ FOR 3 CYCLES NOW. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THURSDAY EVENING
AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN THE RGV. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR A
CHANGE.
LOOK FOR A PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING INCREASING
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE DESERT
SW AND NM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL BE ON THE UPTREND SUN/MON AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTERACT
WITH AN ABOVE NORMAL PWAT ATMOSPHERE AND INSTABILITY GENERATED
FROM DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE
AFTER THE PATTERN CHANGE, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE RECENT HEAT LEVELS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTINESS, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
AN UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER AZ THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING
CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING AND MORE DAILY RECORD
HIGHS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH WIND BEING THE ONLY LIMITER. HOWEVER, STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY, BRINGING GOOD
COVERAGE OF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH AN AREA OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ALONG/NORTH OF I-40 AND ALONG/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THURSDAY. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING WINDY AND NOTABLY
COOLER CONDITIONS. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY
INITIALLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE SATURATED
ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 84 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 35 80 38 84 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 83 35 87 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 80 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 38 84 39 87 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 80 43 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 83 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 44 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 85 37 88 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 88 41 91 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 74 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 80 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 80 48 85 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 77 43 81 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 40 68 40 73 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 73 28 79 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 36 81 38 86 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 43 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 43 86 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 81 53 85 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 90 50 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 43 90 45 92 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 89 44 92 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 48 89 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 90 44 92 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 88 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 51 91 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 80 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 84 38 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 80 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 82 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 79 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 81 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 85 40 88 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 36 87 40 90 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 85 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 85 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 42 86 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 93 48 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 92 49 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 46 91 52 95 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 43 92 49 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 94 50 95 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 47 96 53 97 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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