638
FXUS65 KABQ 272341
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
441 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 434 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND AT
LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGHOUT NEW MEXICO AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY 15-20F ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
STATE. A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO
REMAIN STATIONARY, PLACING CONSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. THE
18Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE 500MB STANDARDIZED HEIGHT IS RIGHT
AROUND 582DM, WHICH SERVES TO BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF 500MB
HEIGHTS. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS HAVE
CORRELATED TO THIS SIGNIFICANT WARM STRETCH. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE BROKEN TODAY, WITH EVEN MORE OF THEM BEING
THREATENED. MID TO HIGH 70S, WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY. A FEW
NORTHWEST BREEZES ARE LIKELY TODAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT,
THOUGH WILL MOST LIKELY BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN WEAKER 700MB
FLOW. A NEAR CARBON COPY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WITH VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT
WEEK, AS SURFACE WINDS TURN DUE WEST DUE TO A FLATTENING RIDGE.
THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE STATE, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL HEATING EFFECTS TO LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. TO PUT SOME
TEMPERATURES IN PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS A ~40-50% CHANCE FOR THE ABQ
SUNPORT (OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE) TO HIT 80F ON SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD BE
THE EARLIEST OFFICIAL 80F DAY IN ABQ BY OVER A WEEK. ROSWELL HAS A
~60% CHANCE TO HIT 90F, WHICH WOULD BE THE SECOND EARLIEST 90F DAY
ON RECORD. WITH THESE HOTTER TEMPERATURES, FOLKS SHOULD BE MINDFUL
TO STAY HYDRATED IT OUTSIDE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
THE PATTERN BECOMES INTERESTING LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A POORLY
MODELED BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLATED TO SLIDE DOWN THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND ENTER NEW MEXICO SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THIS FRONT WILL ENTER NM AROUND SUNDOWN ON
SUNDAY, PUSHING FURTHER IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM AND AI-GFS
RUNS ARE EARLIER ON ITS ARRIVAL (CLOSER TO MIDDAY), AND THUS HAVE
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST NM FOR SUNDAY. AS MOST MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A LATER ENTRY, THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NM, REFLECT THIS THINKING.
FORECAST SOUNDING ARE ALSO FAVORING A MORE SATURATED SURFACE LAYER
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS
THOUGH, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE DEBATE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT LIKELY SITS IN EASTERN NM THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN
AND A SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, STIFF WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY TO ENCROACH ON
THE AREA, AND WITH RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYERS DEPICTED IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, MONDAY APPEARS FAVORED FOR A BREEZIER DAY ACROSS THE
STATE. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THESE STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL WORK TO WASH OUT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN
NM, WHICH FAVORS THE SCENARIO OF WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK UP
RATHER THAN KEEPING THEM COOLER AS THEY NORMALLY ARE AFTER A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TUESDAY IS FAVORED TO REMAIN BREEZY (AND SPREAD
MORE ACROSS THE STATE) AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENS FURTHER. WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION PRODUCER NOW LOOKS TO SPIT OUT JUST A LITTLE RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER NORTHERN NM. SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR IS
HOW THE EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL LEE CYCLONE FARES IN EASTERN
NM/SOUTHEAST CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION IS
GENERATED IN NORTHEAST NM VIA FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. POPS
BETWEEN 30-40% TUESDAY ACCURATELY REFLECT THIS THINKING.
AS WE GET TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A LULL IN THE PATTERN
IS FAVORED FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO ENTER THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LIKELY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN
LOCKED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
SUNSET FOR KABQ, KFMN, AND KAEG. WINDS WILL BE COME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES, ALONG WITH SOME TERRAIN-INDUCED
DRAINAGE WINDS AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSAF. ONCE AGAIN, FEW TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY ALONG WITH LOW TEENS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY IN EAST CENTRAL NM.
VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN FAIR AND GOOD ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH TODAY AND SATURDAY. TOMORROW IS ALSO
FAVORED TO BE THE LEAST BREEZY DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL, THOUGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST OF THE
STATE. BREEZY WEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY, WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN A STRETCH OF BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS AS A SERIES
OF SYSTEMS LOOK TO BRING IN STIFF SOUTHWEST FLOW. THESE PATTERNS
ARE NORMALLY FAVORED TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
A GREATER COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ERC
VALUES HAVE INFLATED INTO THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS
EASTERN NM PER SWCC, SIGNALING THAT FUELS ARE BECOMING MORE
RECEPTIVE TO POTENTIAL BURNS. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK, AND
A FEW RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 65 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 33 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 71 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 30 73 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 72 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 73 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 37 80 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 83 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 27 59 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 62 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 55 35 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 61 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 27 66 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 35 69 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 33 72 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 41 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 74 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 77 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 35 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 40 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 76 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 76 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 79 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 73 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 72 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 76 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 71 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 71 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 74 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 72 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 39 73 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 71 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 37 79 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 77 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 79 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 44 81 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 42 82 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 81 39 84 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 86 45 89 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 45 83 45 85 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...25
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