435
FXUS65 KABQ 071102 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO, ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 357 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS, WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THAT ZONE
LIKELY TO REACH OR EXCEED 95 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO GET GOING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO HOW IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
AFTERNOONS. STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH STEERING FLOW LIKELY TO MOVE STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST, STORMS DRIFTING OFF OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, OR
DEVELOPING FROM A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT TX
PANHANDLE STORMS, WILL SHIFT INTO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS. SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000 J/KG, LCLS 2-3KM AGL, AND
WELL-MIXED LAYERS BENEATH THE LCLS POINT TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP THESE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM,
WHICH ALIGNS WITH OUR THINKING. STORMS, IN ESSENCE, WILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE TO BEGIN THE AFTERNOON, WITH CAMS HINTING AT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN MCS FEATURE IN THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
DEVELOPMENT MAY WORK TO SEND STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FURTHER SOUTH
INTO SOUTHEAST NM (AS FAR SOUTH AS ROSWELL). LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY TO
BE A THREAT AS WELL IN THE STRONGER INITIAL UPDRAFTS, GIVEN HIGH
CAPE VALUES FORECAST IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. A LACK OF BULK SHEAR
THOUGH WILL LIKELY LEAD THESE STRONG HAIL CORES TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. LASTLY FOR EASTERN NM, SHOULD COLLIDING OUTFLOWS REGENERATE
STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA(S), LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A
CONCERN. FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST NM, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING IN NATURE AND IN STEEPER TERRAIN.
SENSITIVE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL NEED TO BE AWARE
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY RECENT
BURN SCARS. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OVER THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS NEAR THE SACATON
BURN SCAR.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL WELL PLACED OVERHEAD, HOT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
FARMINGTON, ALBUQUERQUE, AND ESPANOLA VALLEY AREAS. SEVERAL OTHER
LOCATIONS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THEIR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT
FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES SHORT. EVEN SO, WHILE AN ADVISORY MAY NOT
BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR LOCATION, IT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT!
MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN HYDRATED AND TO KEEP TAKING BREAKS
IF OUTDOORS.
IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY, WITH
STORMS REMAINING MAINLY ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT THEIR LOWEST (0.5-0.8"), AND THIS IS DUE
TO THE OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EASTWARD EVER SO SLIGHTLY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING AROUND A BIT MORE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR.
THERE ARE LOWER CHANCES FOR THESE INITIAL STORMS TO AFFECT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS CENTRAL NM. THE HEAT ALSO STICKS AROUND
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO WEEKEND A
DECAMETER OR TWO, WHICH LOOKS TO BRING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS A FEW DEGREES. AREAS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL STILL
BE RIGHT NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU (FARMINGTON) HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A MORE ROBUST SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL FAVORED TO ENTER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, AND IN TURN POPS CONTINUE
TO TREND UP ACROSS THE AREA (MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM). TAKING
A LOOK AT FORECAST PWAT ANOMALIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK IN
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING, ALL CLUSTERS FAVOR AREAS IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM CLIMBING INTO THE 80-90TH PERCENTILES IN PWATS. VALUE
WISE, THIS BRINGS PWATS NEAR AND ABOVE AN INCH, ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THIS AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
SHOWS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE BEING RICHER IN MOISTURE,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PATTERN MAKES SENSE METEOROLOGICALLY TOO: A SLIGHTLY WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SEEP IN UNDERNEATH AND ON ITS SLIGHT
WESTERN PERIPHERY. TRANSLATING TO OUR FORECAST: SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY GOING INTO THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. EXACT COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE AS FINER DETAILS OF THE PATTERN BECOME AVAILABLE IN
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BRING SOME MOISTURE
BACK TO AREAS OF THE STATE THAT SURELY NEED IT.
ON TOP OF MORE MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA, THIS (ALONG WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY) SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES, BRINGING THEM CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WE MAY STILL BE
DEALING WITH HEAT ADVISORIES GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, BUT AS SEVERAL DAYS
OF A HIGHER PWAT ATMOSPHERE SETTLE IN, WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL (HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MID 90S IN THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS) THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER
18Z TODAY. BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY
DIRECT HIT TO TERMINALS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS TODAY ARE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 30-35KTS ACROSS A FEW TAF SITES. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
AND DELIVER OUTFLOW WINDS TO KSAF AFTER 21Z. STORMS NEAR THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO GIVE KABQ/AEG GUSTY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. FOR CENTRAL TAF SITES, THESE OUTFLOW
WINDS MAY PERSIST AS LATE AS 06-09Z. IN EASTERN NM, A CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS FAVORED TO FORM AFTER 00Z, GENERATING SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH TOWARDS KROW NEAR
AND AFTER 03Z. CURRENTLY, IT'S MOST LIKELY THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL
GET TO KROW, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER
TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH FUELS STILL REMAIN DRY AND RECEPTIVE ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA (ERCS IN THE 90TH OR HIGHER PERCENTILES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NM). DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, ALONG WITH THE
HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE RETURNING
AREAWIDE COMING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK,
FOCUSING ON NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THIS WILL ALSO BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. WITH THIS THOUGH, VENT
RATES AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DOWNTREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 66 100 66 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 99 56 97 56 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 96 60 95 61 / 5 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 96 59 96 60 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 92 57 91 58 / 5 5 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 92 60 91 60 / 20 10 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 92 64 91 64 / 10 20 5 10
DATIL........................... 89 58 88 59 / 20 10 20 10
RESERVE......................... 97 58 94 58 / 40 10 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 100 63 97 63 / 50 10 40 10
CHAMA........................... 92 54 90 55 / 10 5 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 93 64 91 65 / 10 10 20 20
PECOS........................... 92 57 92 58 / 40 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 91 56 90 57 / 20 5 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 82 48 81 49 / 30 0 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 86 41 85 42 / 40 5 30 20
TAOS............................ 95 57 94 58 / 20 5 10 20
MORA............................ 89 53 89 55 / 30 10 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 100 64 99 65 / 10 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 94 61 93 62 / 20 10 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 96 60 95 61 / 20 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 100 67 98 69 / 20 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 69 98 70 / 20 10 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 101 68 101 69 / 10 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 68 100 70 / 5 10 0 10
BELEN........................... 100 66 100 67 / 5 10 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 102 66 101 68 / 10 10 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 100 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 5
CORRALES........................ 102 67 101 69 / 10 10 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 65 100 66 / 10 10 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 98 65 96 67 / 10 10 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 101 68 100 70 / 5 10 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 102 70 101 71 / 10 20 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 61 92 63 / 30 20 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 95 62 93 65 / 30 20 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 96 59 94 62 / 30 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 55 95 57 / 30 20 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 92 59 91 62 / 40 30 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 95 59 94 62 / 40 30 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 59 91 61 / 40 30 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 65 93 66 / 40 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 87 59 86 59 / 40 20 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 89 58 90 60 / 10 10 20 10
RATON........................... 93 55 94 56 / 20 10 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 55 97 56 / 30 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 56 92 58 / 30 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 97 65 98 68 / 5 10 0 10
ROY............................. 92 61 93 64 / 20 20 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 100 65 100 70 / 10 50 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 64 96 67 / 10 50 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 65 101 71 / 10 50 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 99 65 98 68 / 0 30 0 10
PORTALES........................ 99 66 99 69 / 0 20 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 67 98 69 / 5 50 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 100 71 100 70 / 0 20 0 5
PICACHO......................... 96 65 95 65 / 10 20 5 5
ELK............................. 93 61 92 61 / 10 20 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-207-217-219-221.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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