727
FXUS65 KABQ 241932
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
132 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (60-70%) RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING
IN AND NEAR RUIDOSO MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS A LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) RISK ON TUESDAY.
- SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NM AND ON TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A 585DAM 500MB HIGH IS OVERHEAD PER THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING AND TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN.
PWATS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY AND SHEAR HAS TRENDED DOWN
FURTHER, SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NEAR ZERO.
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WITH TODAY'S
CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION AND A FEW LUCKY FOLKS
MAY PICK UP 0.10-0.20" OF RAINFALL. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WET AND THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS CYCLES. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BRING PWATS TO NEAR
DAILY RECORD VALUES BY LATE DAY MONDAY. THE PACIFIC LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM OVER SOCAL ACROSS AZ AND TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
MONDAY, PULLING GULF MOISTURE INTO NM AND RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AND
SANTA FE METROS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON PER THE LATEST CAMS. THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TX BORDER IS
FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THE WPC HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK. THE LATEST TRENDS IN
INSTABILITY AND QPF HAVE TIPPED THE FLOOD THREAT SCALE IN FAVOR OF
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE MAIN THREAT AREA BEING ON AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH FORK, SALT AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS.
THE SPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF SOCORRO, LINCOLN AND CHAVES
COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING SEVERE WIND GUSTS GIVEN
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODEST INSTABILITY.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS PIVOTS NORTHEAST INTO EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVE EAST
OVER NM ON TUESDAY, INTERACTING WITH PLENTIFUL ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND AFTER SOME DAYTIME HEATING HELPING TO KICK OFF
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE GREATER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM ON TUESDAY,
WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE LIKELY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED GROUNDS BY THAT POINT IN TIME. A LARGE
AND POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NV/CA WEDNESDAY WILL STEER STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN NM, RESULTING
IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY FOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION, BUT WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL STEER EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO
WESTERN NM ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. LESS WIND IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH WILL PULL
GULF MOISTURE INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM AND RESULT IN A
ROUND OF CONVECTION. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
GIVEN SOME MODEL SPREAD AT THAT PROJECTION, WITH THE GFS BEING THE
CONSISTENTLY WETTER SOLUTION, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HIGH-BASED
AND PRODUCE STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO
IMPACT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL
MOVE NORTH ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER MONDAY MORNING AND MAY IMPACT
KGUP AFTER 15Z WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER VFR CIGS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, FORECAST TO BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
WIDESPREAD WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STEER
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY, WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
STUBBORN TO SCOUR-OUT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NM ON
THURSDAY, BUT FUELS MAY NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO THE RAPID SPREAD OF
FIRE CONDITIONAL ON THE EXTENT OF WETTING RAINFALL FROM MON/TUE.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY,
BUT CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 79 50 77 / 0 30 40 20
DULCE........................... 44 78 44 71 / 5 40 60 70
CUBA............................ 49 74 43 70 / 5 40 80 60
GALLUP.......................... 46 71 40 74 / 5 70 40 10
EL MORRO........................ 47 67 42 71 / 10 70 60 10
GRANTS.......................... 47 72 41 74 / 10 70 70 20
QUEMADO......................... 50 70 43 72 / 10 70 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 56 71 48 71 / 5 70 80 70
DATIL........................... 51 68 44 70 / 10 80 70 30
RESERVE......................... 46 77 40 79 / 20 60 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 47 81 43 84 / 30 60 20 10
CHAMA........................... 41 72 41 65 / 10 40 60 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 76 51 67 / 5 40 70 60
PECOS........................... 48 76 45 67 / 10 50 80 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 74 47 66 / 10 50 60 60
RED RIVER....................... 39 64 39 57 / 10 70 70 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 69 37 62 / 10 60 80 70
TAOS............................ 47 78 46 69 / 5 50 60 60
MORA............................ 47 73 46 64 / 10 50 80 70
ESPANOLA........................ 52 83 51 75 / 5 30 60 60
SANTA FE........................ 53 77 50 68 / 5 50 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 80 48 71 / 5 50 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 79 55 76 / 5 60 80 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 80 53 77 / 0 50 80 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 82 52 80 / 0 50 80 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 80 53 78 / 0 50 70 40
BELEN........................... 55 82 49 79 / 0 50 70 40
BERNALILLO...................... 58 82 53 78 / 0 50 80 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 81 48 79 / 5 50 70 40
CORRALES........................ 57 81 51 79 / 0 50 80 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 81 48 79 / 0 50 70 40
PLACITAS........................ 60 79 54 73 / 5 60 80 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 80 53 78 / 0 50 70 40
SOCORRO......................... 61 82 55 81 / 0 60 80 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 74 50 70 / 5 70 80 50
TIJERAS......................... 56 76 50 71 / 5 70 80 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 77 49 71 / 5 60 80 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 78 43 72 / 5 50 70 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 74 46 66 / 10 60 70 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 75 47 72 / 0 60 80 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 75 46 70 / 0 60 80 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 78 52 73 / 0 60 80 40
RUIDOSO......................... 54 71 48 66 / 5 70 80 70
CAPULIN......................... 47 76 45 64 / 20 20 40 70
RATON........................... 46 80 46 68 / 10 20 50 60
SPRINGER........................ 47 81 48 68 / 10 30 70 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 75 48 64 / 10 40 70 60
CLAYTON......................... 54 84 52 72 / 20 30 30 60
ROY............................. 52 79 49 67 / 10 30 70 70
CONCHAS......................... 57 87 54 73 / 10 40 70 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 84 52 69 / 5 40 70 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 88 54 75 / 10 50 70 70
CLOVIS.......................... 56 87 54 73 / 20 30 70 70
PORTALES........................ 57 88 54 73 / 20 30 70 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 87 53 73 / 5 50 80 70
ROSWELL......................... 61 91 57 76 / 0 20 80 60
PICACHO......................... 56 83 51 72 / 5 40 70 70
ELK............................. 53 80 48 73 / 5 40 70 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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