770
FXUS65 KABQ 152321
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY REMAINING
STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SLICK TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY BECOMING MOSTLY SNOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS EACH STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY (PEAKING TUESDAY) AND
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAINLY
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
A NICE AND MILD MID FEBRUARY DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH
CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A POTENT PACIFIC UPPER
LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CA COASTLINE. BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AND AROUND SOCORRO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID FEBRUARY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER
LEVEL AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY
WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN EVEN FURTHER WARMING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK GUSTS OF AROUND 50
MPH, AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 40 TO 55 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN THE MID 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AROUND A 515 TO 520 DAM UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NM MID MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE QUICKLY FIZZLING ACROSS THE RGV AND AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 2
TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. THE OTHER
SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ON TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. AT THE BASE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE A STRONG PACIFIC JET WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 150
TO 180 KTS AT 250 MB ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW THESE STRONGER WINDS HIGHER UP
ALONG WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS WILL SEE THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE OF WINDS. FOR THAT
REASON, THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY TOMORROW WITH WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SURROUNDING ZONES OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WITH THE
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS, RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S,
BUT THIS WILL BE OVERCOME BY THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALLOWING
POTENTIAL FIRES TO SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS. WINDS TAPERING OFF
SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN BRISK AT THE
BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 700 MB
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS COMBINED WITH A 990 TO 995 MB SURFACE LEE
LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN TUESDAY. ANOTHER SET OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ADJACENT
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND EASTERN NM WILL BE LOWER AT AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT DUE TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY FOR
POTENTIAL RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS. MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY SPREADING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS 2ND SYSTEM
WILL BE LOWER AT AROUND 5,500 TO 6,500 FEET. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER
SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE NOT AS IMPACTFUL AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE STATE LOOKS TO BE IN QUASIZONAL FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. STILL LOOKING AT
GUSTY WEST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE ANOTHER SET OF WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE
FUELS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE THIRD SHORTWAVE OVER
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY MOVES INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR
CORNERS AREA ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN MORE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PRECIP WITH THIS THIRD
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW DUE TO 700 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 TO -10 DEG C. TEMPERATURES DURING THE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WILL PROGRESSIVELY GET COLDER ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM AND GRADUALLY COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS COUNTERACTING THE LOWERING HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST,
WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CLOUD BASES. LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES IN AND AROUND THE HIGH
TERRAIN, IMPACTING SITES SUCH AS KAXX AND KLVS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW AFTER 18Z, WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS (20 TO 35 KTS) FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK...
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
ALLOW SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCH STRONGER TO DAMAGING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
IMPACT NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER A LARGER AREA OF EASTERN NM.
POTENTIAL FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 15 TO 30% WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE
FUELS. WINDS REMAIN PRETTY GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT A LITTLE
WEAKER THAN TUESDAY AS A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE STATE.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH COMBINED WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SECOND
DISTURBANCE AND AHEAD OF A THIRD DISTURBANCE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT AROUND 15 TO 20%
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE.
WEST WINDS LOOK TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE THIRD
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES STAY STEADY AT AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
RESULTING IN ANOTHER POTENTIAL DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 62 37 47 / 0 5 50 90
DULCE........................... 23 61 27 41 / 0 5 40 100
CUBA............................ 28 59 31 42 / 0 0 5 70
GALLUP.......................... 21 61 28 42 / 0 0 50 90
EL MORRO........................ 29 61 32 40 / 0 0 20 80
GRANTS.......................... 24 66 30 45 / 0 0 10 70
QUEMADO......................... 31 62 34 44 / 0 0 10 80
MAGDALENA....................... 36 66 41 51 / 0 0 5 30
DATIL........................... 31 63 36 44 / 0 0 10 50
RESERVE......................... 27 65 32 45 / 0 0 50 90
GLENWOOD........................ 31 69 34 49 / 0 0 40 90
CHAMA........................... 25 53 24 35 / 0 5 30 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 58 38 46 / 0 0 10 70
PECOS........................... 31 61 35 47 / 0 0 5 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 57 32 41 / 0 0 10 70
RED RIVER....................... 28 49 27 34 / 0 0 20 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 57 24 40 / 0 0 10 60
TAOS............................ 25 61 33 45 / 0 0 10 60
MORA............................ 31 66 34 48 / 0 0 5 40
ESPANOLA........................ 28 65 37 52 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA FE........................ 35 59 38 47 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 61 37 50 / 0 0 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 66 45 54 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 67 42 56 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 33 69 41 58 / 0 0 0 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 66 42 55 / 0 0 5 30
BELEN........................... 29 70 40 59 / 0 0 0 20
BERNALILLO...................... 35 68 42 57 / 0 0 5 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 70 40 58 / 0 0 0 20
CORRALES........................ 34 68 41 56 / 0 0 5 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 69 41 59 / 0 0 0 20
PLACITAS........................ 37 64 43 53 / 0 0 5 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 35 66 41 56 / 0 0 5 30
SOCORRO......................... 34 73 45 62 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 61 40 50 / 0 0 5 70
TIJERAS......................... 36 62 41 51 / 0 0 5 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 31 65 40 53 / 0 0 5 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 67 37 55 / 0 0 5 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 63 38 50 / 0 0 5 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 64 40 55 / 0 0 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 65 41 57 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 68 45 58 / 0 0 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 41 64 42 52 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 31 69 37 54 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 27 70 34 54 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 24 76 37 57 / 0 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 68 40 53 / 0 0 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 38 75 48 65 / 0 0 5 0
ROY............................. 29 74 43 59 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 80 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 77 47 62 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 81 49 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 77 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 78 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 76 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 79 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 36 78 47 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 36 74 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ212>215-223-226>237-239-240.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST MONDAY FOR NMZ123.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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