758
FXUS65 KABQ 310528 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SOME STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE SURFACE, AND A
RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB
AROUND 3 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S READINGS, WHILE VARYING FROM 4
DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES ON THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO AS
MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WORK
WEEK WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CA COAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST, AND A
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
WILL CAUSE GULF MOISTURE TO PUSH ALL OF THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE OF NORTHWEST NM BY TUESDAY, WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
NORTHWEST NM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE UPPER TROUGH MAY FORM A WEAK, CLOSED, UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS THROUGH NM ON FRIDAY AND
ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO BEGIN MOVING OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON FRIDAY, WHEN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD. PWATS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO VARY AROUND
0.80-1.30" OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RECENT BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND THE SOIL GETS MORE AND MORE SATURATED.
RAIN AMOUNTS THIS WEEK SHOULD COMMONLY REACH AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO THE NORTHWEST NM CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY VARY AROUND 0.10-0.50" WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS; ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LITTLE
OR NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES, AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE DAILY
UNTIL MONDAY, WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO RISE NEAR 20 PERCENT ON THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS FORECAST OVER MOST
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL NM TONIGHT, THEN ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE RELEGATED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THEN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE GULF MOISTURE SHOULD FEATURE SOME GUSTY AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE A FEW OF THE
STRONGER WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 83 47 89 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 80 36 85 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 82 40 84 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 38 85 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 44 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 87 43 90 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 41 91 48 95 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 80 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 74 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 75 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 37 81 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 40 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 44 87 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 83 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 87 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 90 56 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 47 91 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 88 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 46 89 53 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 90 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 88 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 94 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 82 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 86 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 86 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 86 45 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 82 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 51 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 40
CAPULIN......................... 41 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 39 83 46 87 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 39 85 45 88 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 45 82 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 49 91 55 94 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 94 60 97 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 54 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 20
PORTALES........................ 53 95 61 96 / 0 0 0 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 55 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 20
PICACHO......................... 53 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 40
ELK............................. 50 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
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