912
FXUS65 KABQ 131134 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY WHERE
THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING SUNDAY AND INCREASING
INTO NEXT WEEK WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW
WATER CROSSINGS. ARROYOS AND SMALL STREAMS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER MAY FILL WITH WATER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE 593DM H5 HIGH MOVED EAST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN OVERNIGHT
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHED CLOSER TO THE GREAT BASIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 700-500MB SUBTROPICAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD SOUTHWEST NM WITH RICH MONSOON
MOISTURE. PWATS IN THIS SOURCE REGION ARE >1.5". THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TODAY WITH MORE ROBUST
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. HREF 24-HR LPMM QPF
SHOWS SEVERAL CELLS DROPPING 0.5-1.0" TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL
BE HOT FOR MID SEPTEMBER BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN RECENT
DAYS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THRU TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO NM.
PWATS BY MONDAY ARE PROGGED TO REACH 1.2" AT KABQ. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE GREAT BASIN WILL ASSERT GREATER ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION AS NOTED BY A 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS AND 50KT JET MOVING
INTO WESTERN NM. 00Z NAM12 CAPE VALUES AVERAGE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM. AN EVEN MORE ROBUST CROP OF STORMS IS LIKELY WITH
LARGER AND MORE NUMEROUS FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON LATEST
CAMS. THE 00Z HREF LPMM QPF SHOWS MANY STORMS PRODUCING MORE THAN
1" WITH A FEW CELLS DROPPING OVER 2". HIGH TEMPS TREND CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR MORE OF THE REGION, EXCEPT SOUTHEAST NM WHERE THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH STILL KEEPS READINGS 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE NOTICEABLE GREATER TODAY AND
MONDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE AREAS THAT DON'T RECEIVE ANY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
TUESDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO MONDAY BUT WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES PROGGED
TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THIS
MODELED FEATURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR A FEW DAYS NOW. THERE MAY BE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THIS PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NM. THE 00Z RRFS SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY SHOWS A LOT MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH 12-HR QPF
FOOTPRINTS IN THE 2 TO 3" RANGE FROM THE STRONGER CELLS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES SOUTH DOWN THE WEST
COAST INTO NORCAL WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST ATTEMPTS
TO SQUEEZE WESTWARD AGAIN. THIS WILL TIGHTEN UP THE MONSOON PLUME
OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, ESPECIALLY OVER NM. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
SHOWN SURGING NORTH WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH NEAR-RECORD DAILY
PWATS FOR MID SEPTEMBER. SEVERAL SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATIONS ARE ALSO
SHOWN MOVING NORTH FROM MX. A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THIS MAY COME AS BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MIXED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND THICK CLOUD COVER.
WPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2" AND LOCALLY HIGHER THAN 3" POSSIBLE AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN. EVEN THE 00Z LREF 7-DAY QPF SHOWS EVERYONE PICKING
UP AT LEAST 0.50" BY THE END OF THE WEEK (50TH %TILE). THE RISK FOR
FLOODING WILL INCREASE WITH EACH DAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY
AROUND BURN SCARS, URBAN AREAS, AND LOW-LYING FLOOD PRONE SITES.
TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER AND ACTUALLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR MID
SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A MORE ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE TODAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM 12PM TO 3PM THEN MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AT 10-15KT INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS AND PLAINS THRU THE EVENING. BRIEF
MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR FROM DIRECT HITS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER CELLS. SHOWERS AND THICK MID LEVEL CIGS
MAY PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THRU SUNRISE MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A TRANSITION TO MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A MORE
PERSISTENT TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SLIDE NORTH INTO NM. THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE TODAY
AND MONDAY THEN BECOME NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2" WILL BE COMMON BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3". THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL INCREASE AROUND AREA BURN SCARS WITH EACH PASSING
DAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 59 81 58 / 20 60 50 60
DULCE........................... 87 48 79 47 / 30 90 70 50
CUBA............................ 86 54 78 53 / 30 70 80 60
GALLUP.......................... 85 55 80 52 / 20 40 50 70
EL MORRO........................ 82 53 77 50 / 30 30 60 60
GRANTS.......................... 86 55 82 54 / 30 30 60 60
QUEMADO......................... 84 56 79 55 / 40 30 80 60
MAGDALENA....................... 85 61 80 59 / 30 30 80 50
DATIL........................... 81 55 77 54 / 30 20 70 50
RESERVE......................... 87 56 84 56 / 20 20 60 50
GLENWOOD........................ 94 62 91 60 / 20 30 60 50
CHAMA........................... 80 49 71 48 / 40 80 80 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 61 79 58 / 20 40 80 40
PECOS........................... 86 57 82 56 / 30 30 50 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 83 55 77 53 / 10 20 60 30
RED RIVER....................... 77 46 71 45 / 10 20 50 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 44 75 41 / 20 20 50 20
TAOS............................ 88 55 82 50 / 10 20 50 30
MORA............................ 83 54 82 53 / 40 20 50 10
ESPANOLA........................ 92 61 87 58 / 10 30 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 86 62 83 59 / 20 30 50 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 60 85 57 / 20 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 68 86 65 / 10 30 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 65 87 63 / 10 30 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 65 89 62 / 10 30 60 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 67 88 65 / 10 40 60 60
BELEN........................... 95 65 89 61 / 10 30 60 60
BERNALILLO...................... 94 66 88 63 / 20 30 50 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 63 88 60 / 10 30 60 50
CORRALES........................ 95 66 89 64 / 20 30 50 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 65 89 62 / 10 30 60 50
PLACITAS........................ 90 65 84 63 / 20 20 50 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 67 86 64 / 20 30 50 60
SOCORRO......................... 97 69 91 65 / 20 30 70 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 60 79 57 / 20 20 50 50
TIJERAS......................... 88 62 83 59 / 20 20 50 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 59 85 55 / 20 20 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 57 88 53 / 20 20 50 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 59 84 56 / 30 10 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 89 60 84 56 / 20 20 50 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 60 85 57 / 20 10 50 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 65 89 63 / 20 10 30 40
RUIDOSO......................... 85 59 83 58 / 40 20 60 40
CAPULIN......................... 87 59 85 56 / 20 10 30 5
RATON........................... 90 56 88 54 / 20 10 30 0
SPRINGER........................ 92 58 90 55 / 30 10 40 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 57 85 55 / 40 10 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 67 93 64 / 10 20 20 20
ROY............................. 90 63 89 60 / 10 20 30 10
CONCHAS......................... 98 69 97 66 / 10 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 67 92 65 / 20 10 50 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 70 97 68 / 10 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 99 68 98 67 / 20 20 10 20
PORTALES........................ 100 69 98 68 / 20 20 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 69 96 66 / 10 10 20 50
ROSWELL......................... 102 70 99 69 / 10 10 20 50
PICACHO......................... 95 63 93 63 / 30 10 60 30
ELK............................. 93 61 90 59 / 30 10 50 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page