685
FXUS65 KABQ 271745 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- FLASH FLOODING AT A HEIGHTENED RISK STATEWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS
WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL BE FAVORED TUESDAY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK
FROM LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT. LOW-LYING FARMLAND, FIELDS, AND
PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TODAY SEES A SECOND DAY TO DRY OUT AND PREP BEFORE THE UPCOMING
SURGE OF RECORD LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD
WHILE SURFACE WINDS STAY LIGHT AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS, 70S AT MIDDLE ELEVATIONS, AND 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE FIRST PHASE OF
THIS MULTI-DAY MONSOON EVENT BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS A STREAM OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS BEGINNING SW-NE
ACROSS AZ AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND NAVAJO NATION. MUCH OF
THIS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY ALREADY PRESENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UNDERLYING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SOUTHEAST OF THE APPROACHING 567DM
H5 CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CA. STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KTS WILL
ALLOW A FEW OF THESE FAST MOVING STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WON'T MUCH INSTABILITY FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO REALLY
DEVELOP. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE THIS CORRIDOR OF SW-NE ORIENTED
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS SETS UP INITIALLY AND WHEN IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN NM, ANYTIME B/W MONDAY MORNING TO MONDAY
EVENING. WHILE TIMING OF SPECIFIC FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN, THERE IS
HIGH CERTAINTY SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WPC HAS ALREADY ISSUED
A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
OVER MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND NAVAJO NATION, EXPANDING
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THIS TIME. WHILE STORM
MOTIONS LOOK TO BE FAST, THE MOVEMENT OF THE SW-NE CORRIDOR OF
STORMS TO THE EAST WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW. THIS MEANS STORMS WILL
HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, ALLOWING RAIN TOTALS TO ADD UP ACROSS
WESTERN NM. STORMS EXPAND ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NM AND INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY UP TO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
AREAS, URBAN ARROYO SYSTEMS, AND RECENT BURN SCARS WILL BE A MAIN
CONCERN. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TUESDAY MORNING BEGINS THE PEAK EVENT PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD AND
PERSISTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF NM. THE
COMBINATION OF DAILY RECORD LEVEL PWAT MOISTURE REACHING 1.30" AT
ABQ FROM THE INSURGENT REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO AND THE FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT AHEAD OF THE H5 LOW OVER WESTERN AZ WILL JUST
ABOUT MAXIMIZE THE RAINFALL PRODUCTION POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT.
MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL STREAM SW-NE ACROSS THE STATE. AND WHILE SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOK TO EXPAND AND BREAK OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, THE BRUNT OF HURRICANE POLO'S
REMNANTS CROSSING THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM DOESN'T LOOK TO ARRIVE
UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THAT SPECIFIC PART OF THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE
DELAY FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL, A SECOND SEGMENT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN STARTS MONDAY EVENING, WITH
ALL AREAS OF THE WATCH LASTING AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM WILL LIKELY SEE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EXTENDED LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN BEHIND
THE EXITING REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BY THIS TIME. THE H5 LOW
BECOMES THE MAIN PLAYER THEREAFTER, CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TO CENTRAL NM TO START THE DAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE, LIKELY
FORMING A TROWAL FEATURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO
WILL KEEP SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS LASTING THRU THE DAY
WEDNESDAY OVER THESE AREAS. DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND
THE H5 LOW AS IT EXITS EASTWARD OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND/OR
WESTERN KS SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING. AS SUCH,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO EXIT NORTHEASTERN NM LAST, PERHAPS AS LATE AS
FRIDAY MORNING.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL DURATION OF THIS EVENT AND WHEN
RAIN WILL END IS STILL RELATIVELY HIGH GIVEN THE COMPLEX
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BEING
ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE H5 LOW, OR IF IT GETS SWUNG
OUT AND EJECTED OUT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE
RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS EVENT OVER NM STILL HAS A RANGE OF AROUND
24-HOURS DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE SHORTEST AND LONGEST TIMES.
ALL TOLD, 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE 1-2 INCHES EACH DAY,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 2-3 INCHES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER EASTERN NM. EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO FAVOR
THE 2-3 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE, AND 3-4 INCH
RANGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4-6
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM, OR WITHIN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL PLAY AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR
SQUEEZING MORE MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHILE CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IMPACTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF RIVER
FLOODING. THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF RAIN FORECAST WILL TAKE TIME
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH DRAINAGE BASINS AND RIVER SYSTEMS. RISES AT
SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALONG RIVERS MAY TAKE HOURS TO DAYS AFTER RAIN
HAS ENDED TO OCCUR. BE VIGILANT AND DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD EVEN
AS THE SKIES CLEAR.
WE'VE HAD HURRICANE REMNANTS SURGE OVER NM BEFORE WITH LESS FLASH
FLOOD RISK, WHY IS THIS EVENT DIFFERENT? MANY EVENTS OF HURRICANE
REMNANTS MOVING OVER NM IN RECENT YEARS HAVE BEEN ON THEIR OWN AND
NOT ACCOMPANIED WITH ANOTHER NEARBY STORM SYSTEM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF
METAPHORICALLY SQUEEZING MORE RAIN OUT OF IT. THEREFORE, THEY WERE
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTENSITIES AND/OR OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER WITH MORE ISOLATED BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS EVENT HAS THAT
ACCOMPANYING STORM SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH FROM CA, SQUEEZING MORE
MOISTURE OUT OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO. THE OTHER FACTOR, IS
THE ABUNDANT RAINFALL NEW MEXICO HAS SEEN THESE PAST TWO WEEKS. THIS
HAS LED TO NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD LEVEL SOIL MOISTURE INUNDATION OVER
MOST OF THE STATE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. THIS MEANS, THE GROUND HAS
LITTLE TO NO MORE ROOM TO ABSORB RAINFALL BEFORE RUNOFF BEGINS. ALL
TOLD, THESE MULTIPLE FACTORS ARE ALL ADDING UP IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION TO BRING A HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD RISK OVER THE STATE. BE
WEATHER AWARE, BE VIGILANT, HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS
DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE AIRSPACE THRU TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA
WILL ENTER NORTHWEST NM AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STORM MOTIONS TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 TO 30KT. THERE IS A 30 TO 40% CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIP BEFORE SUNRISE
MONDAY FROM KGUP TO KFMN. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD AND LONG
DURATION RAIN EVENT, PEAKING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL
THREATEN FLASH FLOODING OVER MANY AREAS, NOTABLY OVER RECENT BURN
SCAR AREAS. CONDITIONS CLEAR WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 79 56 64 54 / 0 50 80 90
DULCE........................... 75 46 61 44 / 0 40 90 90
CUBA............................ 71 52 63 50 / 0 20 90 90
GALLUP.......................... 76 51 65 48 / 0 40 80 90
EL MORRO........................ 73 50 66 47 / 0 10 90 90
GRANTS.......................... 76 53 69 50 / 0 10 90 90
QUEMADO......................... 76 53 72 52 / 0 10 70 90
MAGDALENA....................... 74 57 72 55 / 0 5 70 90
DATIL........................... 73 53 69 52 / 0 5 70 90
RESERVE......................... 81 54 79 54 / 0 10 70 90
GLENWOOD........................ 86 60 83 58 / 0 10 70 90
CHAMA........................... 68 47 57 46 / 0 50 90 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 56 66 52 / 0 10 60 90
PECOS........................... 74 52 71 52 / 0 5 50 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 72 51 64 49 / 0 10 70 90
RED RIVER....................... 70 40 61 41 / 0 10 70 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 39 62 38 / 0 5 60 90
TAOS............................ 73 48 66 48 / 0 10 70 90
MORA............................ 72 50 68 50 / 0 0 40 80
ESPANOLA........................ 77 55 73 54 / 0 10 60 90
SANTA FE........................ 72 57 70 54 / 0 5 60 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 55 71 53 / 0 5 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 61 75 57 / 0 5 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 59 76 57 / 0 5 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 58 78 57 / 0 5 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 60 76 59 / 0 5 70 90
BELEN........................... 77 58 79 57 / 0 5 60 90
BERNALILLO...................... 78 59 77 58 / 0 5 70 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 57 78 55 / 0 5 60 90
CORRALES........................ 79 59 77 58 / 0 5 70 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 58 78 57 / 0 5 60 90
PLACITAS........................ 75 59 72 57 / 0 5 60 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 59 76 58 / 0 5 70 90
SOCORRO......................... 82 62 82 60 / 0 5 60 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 56 69 52 / 0 0 60 90
TIJERAS......................... 74 55 72 53 / 0 0 50 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 52 74 52 / 0 0 40 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 50 76 51 / 0 0 40 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 54 74 53 / 0 0 30 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 53 75 53 / 0 0 30 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 54 75 54 / 0 0 30 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 59 79 59 / 0 0 30 90
RUIDOSO......................... 74 54 76 55 / 0 0 30 90
CAPULIN......................... 74 53 70 53 / 0 0 5 80
RATON........................... 78 52 73 52 / 0 0 20 80
SPRINGER........................ 78 51 75 54 / 0 0 10 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 51 71 53 / 0 5 20 90
CLAYTON......................... 83 57 79 59 / 0 0 0 80
ROY............................. 77 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 80
CONCHAS......................... 85 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 80
CLOVIS.......................... 86 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 80
PORTALES........................ 86 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 90
ROSWELL......................... 83 58 86 63 / 0 0 0 80
PICACHO......................... 82 58 83 60 / 0 0 10 90
ELK............................. 81 56 83 58 / 0 0 20 90
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.
FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42
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