230
FXUS65 KABQ 231921
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND
MONDAY, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
WITH STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE-TO-HIGH HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN
SPREAD TO WESTERN AREAS AS WELL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SQUARELY PLANTED OVER NM WITH
CENTRAL 500 MB HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 597-598 DECAMETERS. THIS IS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH HAS NOT OFFERED ANY RECENT MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS TO COME INTO THE STATE, BUT EARLIER MONSOON MOISTURE
HAS BEEN GETTING RECYCLED WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING
SMALL, BUT MIGHTY FOOTPRINTS. MORE STABILITY HAS WRAPPED INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
INHIBITING STORMS THERE, AND THIS HAS SHOVED THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.
THE OTHER FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE IS A SMALL PERTURBATION RIDING
IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW OVER CO WHICH WILL SPAWN STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, AND COLD POOLS FROM THESE CELLS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO A FEW MORE STORMS INTO NORTHERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT MAKE INTO NORTHEASTERN NM COULD FIND LOCALIZED
SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS NEAR THIS COLD POOL, AND COULD BRIEFLY TURN
STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE OUTFLOWS WILL KEEP
LOW, BUT PRESENT, STORM PROSPECTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS THIS EVENING WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AIRMASS
STORMS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS WILL THEN
BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING MONDAY.
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO CO,
LIKELY IGNITING ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN NM.
A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE SEEPING INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM, POTENTIALLY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION
WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING MORE SHEAR FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG CELLS.
INSTABILITY WILL EXPAND A BIT SOUTHWARD, INTRODUCING LOW STORM
CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAINS
ALONG WITH A MORE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY A DEGREE
OR TWO OF "COOLING" IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES GAIN
AS MUCH. THIS WILL PUSH ROSWELL TO 105, HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE AREA, SO AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, THIS
ADVISORY STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD, ONLY SAGGING A BIT SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE AZ-NM
BORDER WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING IN A 596-598 DECAMETER RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND ABOVE NORMAL WITH BACKDOOR
FRONTAL INTRUSIONS ONLY OFFERING A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING IN NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES TUESDAY AND MORE-SO
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH POSITIONING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD,
THIS WILL INTRODUCE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN NM ZONES. THIS COUPLED WITH NORTHERLY OR EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, WILL RAISE BULK SHEAR VALUES AND INCREASE THE
SEVERE THREAT WHILE HIGHER DEWPOINTS, UPSLOPE, AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALSO CONTRIBUTE. STORM COVERAGE MAY UNDERGO A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD REGAIN POTENTIAL INTO THURSDAY
AS THE MOIST BACKDOOR FRONTAL AIR MASS GETS CONVECTIVELY AIDED AND
SHOVED FARTHER WEST.
INTO FRIDAY, THE HIGH WOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AZ-NM BORDER WITH
STORMS BEING RELIANT ON DIURNAL HEATING AND RECYCLING OF
THURSDAY'S MOISTURE. BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO
WEAKEN AND BEGIN ELONGATING WEST-TO-EAST WITH DRIER AIR PIVOTING
INTO NM FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HINTS
AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WHICH WOULD
GENERATE ADDITIONAL STORMS, BUT EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS DO
NOT APPEAR AS FAVORABLE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND LEANS ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY FILLING INTO NEARBY VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS
THAT WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. A STORM OR
TWO IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TURN
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS
WILL MOSTLY COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY. STORMS WILL TEND
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO GOING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS
WILL LEAD TO POOR AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE FOR SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GENERALLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT MONSOON MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WHERE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN COLORADO
MAY ASSIST NORTHERN NM AREAS AS IT DIPS CLOSER. AN INCREASE IN
STORMS IS STILL FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE MULTIPLYING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CATALYST FOR THIS INCREASE WILL BE WEAK, BUT MOIST
BACKDOOR FRONTS THAT WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER
THEY WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE RELIEF.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL COMMONLY DROP TO 12 TO 20% EACH DAY, BUT
THE INCOMING BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL ALLOW HUMIDITY TO RECOVER
BETTER, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE MORNING
RECOVERIES WILL REACH 60-80% BY MID WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, WESTERN
ZONES WILL STILL OBSERVE ONLY MEAGER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OF 40-60%
IN THE MORNINGS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT STORMS WILL REDUCE IN
NUMBER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 94 63 95 / 20 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 51 91 51 92 / 20 10 10 20
CUBA............................ 59 90 59 92 / 30 10 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 57 90 57 92 / 30 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 56 85 56 87 / 20 30 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 58 90 59 91 / 30 30 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 58 87 58 89 / 20 20 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 63 89 64 90 / 10 20 10 20
DATIL........................... 58 86 59 87 / 20 20 20 20
RESERVE......................... 58 93 58 95 / 10 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 63 98 64 100 / 10 10 5 20
CHAMA........................... 52 84 52 84 / 20 30 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 87 64 87 / 40 30 20 40
PECOS........................... 59 90 59 90 / 20 20 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 85 56 85 / 40 20 30 40
RED RIVER....................... 45 78 45 78 / 40 30 30 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 82 36 82 / 30 40 40 50
TAOS............................ 55 89 56 89 / 30 20 20 30
MORA............................ 55 86 55 84 / 20 40 40 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 94 59 94 / 40 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 62 90 62 90 / 20 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 93 60 94 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 95 69 96 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 96 70 97 / 20 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 98 63 99 / 20 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 98 70 98 / 20 5 20 10
BELEN........................... 67 98 67 99 / 20 5 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 66 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 98 64 98 / 20 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 67 98 68 99 / 20 5 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 98 66 98 / 20 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 66 94 67 95 / 20 10 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 97 69 97 / 20 5 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 71 100 / 10 10 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 90 64 91 / 20 20 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 64 91 64 92 / 20 10 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 91 61 92 / 20 20 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 93 58 93 / 10 20 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 90 61 90 / 20 20 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 91 61 93 / 10 20 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 91 61 92 / 10 20 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 95 68 96 / 0 10 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 53 89 59 89 / 0 20 10 40
CAPULIN......................... 55 87 55 85 / 30 40 50 70
RATON........................... 55 91 55 89 / 30 50 40 70
SPRINGER........................ 56 93 56 91 / 30 30 30 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 90 57 88 / 20 30 20 60
CLAYTON......................... 65 96 65 93 / 30 20 60 50
ROY............................. 60 93 61 91 / 20 20 40 50
CONCHAS......................... 67 101 67 98 / 20 10 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 98 66 95 / 20 5 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 101 68 98 / 20 5 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 70 100 69 99 / 10 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 71 102 70 101 / 5 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 101 69 99 / 20 0 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 71 105 72 103 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 67 99 67 98 / 0 10 10 10
ELK............................. 63 94 64 94 / 0 10 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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