313
FXUS65 KABQ 121153 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST ABOVE 8,500FT AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH. PERIODIC WAVES OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL BE THE END
RESULT WITH TEMPS GENERALLY 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL. A COUPLE LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NM BUT MOST AREAS WILL
NOT SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OVER NM FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC
WAVE MOVES INTO AZ. THERE ARE A COUPLE WEAK EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS
WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND THEIR INTERACTION WILL DETERMINE THE
EVENTUAL DETAILS ON PRECIP COVERAGE, AMOUNTS, AND TIMING OF THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL WITH THE BULK OF THE
BENEFICIAL PRECIP CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM, AS WELL AS
SOUTHEAST NM. QPF IN THESE AREAS IS ROUGHLY 0.10 TO 0.25", WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE CONT DIVIDE AND THE WEST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS SO ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMS WILL BE CONFINED
MAINLY ABOVE 8,500 FT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING
TO NEAR 7,500 FT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN
ONLY MINOR IMPACTS EXPECTED AND MODERATE UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH
QPF PLACEMENT, NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED JUST
YET.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
BY SATURDAY, LINGERING RAIN/SNOW OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
NM WILL END AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST INTO TX/OK. COOLER AIR
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL MAKE IT FEEL
CHILLY COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH BRISK WIND CHILLS THRU
THE EVENING.
A RIDGE WILL CREST OVER NM SUNDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING 5 TO 15F ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN UNDER LIGHTER WINDS AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN MONDAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS, EVEN WARMER TEMPS,
AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. SENDS ANOTHER WAVE
OF ENERGY THRU THE SOUTHWEST. STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS, COOLER
TEMPS, AND EVEN SOME RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND WESTERN NM. EASTERN NM MAY CONTEND WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER
WITH DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER NORTHWEST NM HAS ALLOWED A COUPLE PATCHES
OF IFR FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP, MAINLY NEAR KGUP AND THE SAN JUAN/
TUSAS MTS. A BRIEF SHOWER WILL ALSO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS KSAF
BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF TODAY WILL FEATURE MULTIPLE
CLOUD LAYERS WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT SOUTHWEST BREEZES.
A COUPLE MORE LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHWEST NM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. BEGINNING MONDAY
MAY LEAD TO A FIRE GROWING PATTERN OVER EASTERN NM THRU WEDNESDAY.
STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SUBCRITICAL HUMIDITY AND RECEPTIVE
FUEL CONDITIONS ON THE PLAINS MAY CREATE A THREE-DAY FIRE WEATHER
EVENT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THRU
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL MORE WINDY DAYS FOR EASTERN NM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP CHANCES AND JUST
HOW LOW HUMIDITY MAY GET ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 35 52 32 / 5 5 60 50
DULCE........................... 59 26 53 26 / 40 10 80 70
CUBA............................ 58 33 53 29 / 10 5 80 90
GALLUP.......................... 59 28 48 27 / 0 5 80 70
EL MORRO........................ 57 33 49 30 / 0 5 90 90
GRANTS.......................... 62 29 50 28 / 0 5 80 90
QUEMADO......................... 60 34 49 31 / 0 5 90 80
MAGDALENA....................... 63 42 54 36 / 0 5 80 90
DATIL........................... 59 36 49 32 / 0 5 80 80
RESERVE......................... 65 34 53 29 / 0 5 90 80
GLENWOOD........................ 67 38 57 30 / 0 5 90 80
CHAMA........................... 51 26 48 24 / 30 5 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 38 50 36 / 5 5 70 90
PECOS........................... 59 34 55 31 / 0 5 70 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 33 51 31 / 10 0 60 80
RED RIVER....................... 46 28 43 27 / 10 5 60 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 21 47 24 / 10 5 70 90
TAOS............................ 59 28 53 29 / 10 0 60 80
MORA............................ 60 32 54 30 / 5 5 60 90
ESPANOLA........................ 64 32 59 34 / 5 5 60 90
SANTA FE........................ 59 38 52 35 / 5 5 70 100
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 36 54 35 / 0 5 60 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 43 57 39 / 0 5 70 100
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 42 58 38 / 0 5 70 100
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 40 60 37 / 0 5 70 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 42 59 39 / 0 5 70 90
BELEN........................... 68 37 61 36 / 0 5 70 90
BERNALILLO...................... 67 41 60 39 / 0 5 70 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 68 37 61 35 / 0 5 70 100
CORRALES........................ 68 41 60 38 / 0 5 70 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 39 60 36 / 0 5 70 90
PLACITAS........................ 62 41 55 38 / 0 5 70 100
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 42 59 39 / 0 5 70 90
SOCORRO......................... 70 42 63 40 / 0 5 70 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 39 54 35 / 0 10 80 100
TIJERAS......................... 60 41 55 36 / 0 5 80 100
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 37 57 35 / 0 5 70 100
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 32 57 32 / 0 5 60 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 36 54 32 / 0 0 60 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 38 58 34 / 0 5 70 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 38 58 35 / 0 0 70 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 42 60 37 / 0 5 80 90
RUIDOSO......................... 62 42 56 35 / 0 5 80 80
CAPULIN......................... 62 31 55 30 / 0 5 20 80
RATON........................... 64 29 57 33 / 0 0 30 80
SPRINGER........................ 67 30 58 32 / 0 0 30 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 34 55 30 / 0 0 40 80
CLAYTON......................... 68 36 57 37 / 0 0 20 80
ROY............................. 67 35 56 35 / 0 5 30 90
CONCHAS......................... 75 38 63 38 / 0 5 30 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 39 61 37 / 0 5 40 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 39 64 38 / 0 5 30 90
CLOVIS.......................... 75 44 65 41 / 0 0 40 90
PORTALES........................ 75 42 67 40 / 0 0 50 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 39 64 38 / 0 5 50 90
ROSWELL......................... 74 44 67 41 / 0 0 60 70
PICACHO......................... 73 43 64 38 / 0 0 60 60
ELK............................. 72 39 64 34 / 0 0 60 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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