895
FXUS65 KABQ 160847
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
247 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
- MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STORMS
WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD EACH DAY WITH A
RISK OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN AT LEAST A LOW TO MODERATE
RISK FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY MOIST PWATS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS PERSIST
OVER THE CO/WY BORDER AND ALSO ON THE TX/LA COAST, AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER WEST TX. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY DRIFT WESTWARD OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS
WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. SOME CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR WITH
A RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING DAILY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ENHANCED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRAWING SOMEWHAT RICHER MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER NM. WET MICROBURST WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 60 MPH
FROM A FEW CELLS EACH DAY.
WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY
FROM NEAR TO AROUND 8 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES FROM DAY
TO DAY. READINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE THE AVERAGES OVER NORTHEAST NM THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
HIGH NORTH OF NM BEGINS TO DRIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK, THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGHS
CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ELONGATED ALONG
AN AXIS FROM EASTERN CO TO OK, AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DRAWING
RICH MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM. THE WEST
TX UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD WITH THIS RICH
MONSOON FLOW, BUT MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT IT ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND AZ, RATHER THAN NM. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, THEN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF NM WILL PRODUCE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHERE DAILY HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY
CLIMB A FEW TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
MEANWHILE, READINGS FARTHER WEST WILL CONTINUE TO VARY FROM A FEW
TO AROUND 6 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OVER WESTERN AREAS. ON THURSDAY, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, EXCEPT FOR MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS. STORM
MOTION SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
AROUND 5-10 MPH. SOME CELLS MAY HAVE SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION. WET
MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
WITH SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE STRONG AND ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. WETTING RAINFALL WILL
BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH
DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 91 62 89 62 / 40 40 30 40
DULCE........................... 86 48 85 48 / 80 50 70 30
CUBA............................ 82 56 81 55 / 40 40 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 84 53 81 52 / 50 50 60 50
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 78 54 / 60 50 60 50
GRANTS.......................... 84 55 82 55 / 60 40 50 40
QUEMADO......................... 79 55 79 55 / 70 40 60 60
MAGDALENA....................... 81 61 81 61 / 40 20 50 40
DATIL........................... 76 57 77 57 / 60 30 60 40
RESERVE......................... 82 53 83 53 / 80 30 70 50
GLENWOOD........................ 87 55 87 54 / 70 30 60 50
CHAMA........................... 78 47 78 47 / 80 60 70 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 62 81 61 / 40 30 60 30
PECOS........................... 81 54 81 53 / 50 30 80 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 54 79 54 / 80 40 60 30
RED RIVER....................... 70 46 71 46 / 80 40 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 40 75 40 / 70 40 70 20
TAOS............................ 81 51 81 50 / 70 40 60 20
MORA............................ 77 52 78 51 / 50 30 70 20
ESPANOLA........................ 89 60 88 59 / 40 30 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 82 61 82 60 / 50 30 70 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 59 85 57 / 30 30 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 66 88 65 / 30 30 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 63 89 63 / 20 30 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 92 63 91 62 / 10 20 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 66 90 65 / 10 30 40 50
BELEN........................... 91 62 91 61 / 10 20 30 40
BERNALILLO...................... 91 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 61 90 60 / 10 20 30 40
CORRALES........................ 92 65 91 64 / 20 30 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 63 91 62 / 10 20 30 40
PLACITAS........................ 87 65 86 64 / 30 40 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 65 90 64 / 20 30 40 50
SOCORRO......................... 93 68 93 67 / 20 20 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 60 82 59 / 40 30 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 84 60 83 59 / 30 30 60 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 57 85 55 / 30 20 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 53 86 52 / 20 20 50 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 55 81 54 / 20 10 50 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 56 85 55 / 20 20 60 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 57 83 56 / 20 10 60 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 62 85 62 / 30 10 60 40
RUIDOSO......................... 78 55 78 56 / 40 10 70 30
CAPULIN......................... 79 53 81 52 / 10 10 10 5
RATON........................... 84 53 85 53 / 30 10 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 85 55 86 54 / 10 10 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 55 81 54 / 30 20 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 87 61 89 61 / 0 5 5 5
ROY............................. 83 58 84 58 / 0 10 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 92 63 / 0 10 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 61 87 61 / 0 10 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 64 91 64 / 0 5 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 88 63 88 63 / 0 5 20 10
PORTALES........................ 89 63 89 63 / 0 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 64 90 64 / 0 5 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 90 67 91 66 / 0 5 20 10
PICACHO......................... 86 61 86 61 / 10 0 40 10
ELK............................. 83 57 84 57 / 20 5 70 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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