649  
FXUS65 KABQ 081211 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
611 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 543 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
- HIGHER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE IN RIVERS, CREEKS, ARROYOS, AND WATER  
LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST  
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. RECENT HEAVY SNOW WILL  
CONTINUE TO MELT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTENSIFYING THE  
RUNOFF THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
- DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING THE HIGH  
TERRAIN.  
 
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AREAWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WHEN THERE IS A 40  
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS UP  
TO 50 MPH.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS WEST OF NM, A SERIES OF  
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY  
AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.30"  
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY COMMON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS, AND ALONG AND  
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS  
NEAR A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS,  
AND ALSO IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN WILL FALL ON  
RECENT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A RISK OF HAZARDOUS RUNOFF.  
ALTHOUGH THE BURN SCAR COMPLEX IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IS  
LIKELY TO RECEIVE RAIN TODAY, THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM PRECIP  
ONLY APPROACHES 0.50" WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MUCH LESS THAN  
THAT. OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE, SO WHILE THERE IS A SMALL  
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THOSE BURN SCARS, THE PROBABILITY  
IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH  
FLOODING IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND  
RAINFALL INTENSITY, WITH NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEING FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  
 
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY.  
READINGS LOOK TO REACH 30-YEAR AVERAGES ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER  
OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE READINGS ALONG THE EASTERN  
BORDER VARY AROUND 5-11 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS  
EASTWARD OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL  
RECYCLE UNDER THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, WHEN A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED  
WITHIN THE RIDGE LOOKS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE WESTERN US DURING THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK STEERING DRY AIR OVER NM. THE UPPER  
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA  
STARTING MONDAY, THEN STEER THE JET STREAM OVER OUR STATE ON  
TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING STRONG FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AND  
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET WITH WIND  
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING IN THE WEST MONDAY, AND  
POTENTIALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS UP TO  
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WIND AND FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS WILL PROBABLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS  
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW  
30-YEAR AVERAGES MOST PLACES ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR AND IFR  
CONDITIONS UNTIL MID MORNING AROUND ANGEL FIRE AND EAGLE NEST, AND  
ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS FROM DULCE AND CHAMA SOUTHWARD  
TO NEAR CUBA. THIS AFTERNOON, A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD  
OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING  
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS, WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-  
TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM  
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT  
SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 KT. STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
COOL TEMPERATURES AND WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN  
THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER IS  
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING IN THE  
WEST MONDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD TUESDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY  
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST  
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL  
THEN CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS  
TO BE MONDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB AROUND 5-10  
DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
FARMINGTON...................... 71 43 77 48 / 20 5 5 10  
DULCE........................... 65 30 73 35 / 60 20 30 20  
CUBA............................ 63 36 69 40 / 40 10 20 20  
GALLUP.......................... 69 33 75 37 / 20 0 5 5  
EL MORRO........................ 64 38 70 42 / 30 5 10 5  
GRANTS.......................... 67 35 73 39 / 30 5 5 5  
QUEMADO......................... 68 38 73 42 / 20 5 10 5  
MAGDALENA....................... 66 43 71 46 / 50 20 10 5  
DATIL........................... 65 40 69 42 / 50 10 10 5  
RESERVE......................... 74 37 80 39 / 20 5 10 5  
GLENWOOD........................ 80 43 83 45 / 10 0 10 0  
CHAMA........................... 58 31 66 34 / 60 20 40 30  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 43 67 45 / 60 10 50 10  
PECOS........................... 60 38 64 40 / 70 20 40 10  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 35 66 37 / 60 10 20 10  
RED RIVER....................... 48 28 55 30 / 70 10 30 10  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 25 60 27 / 70 10 30 10  
TAOS............................ 61 31 69 34 / 60 10 20 10  
MORA............................ 55 32 64 33 / 70 20 40 10  
ESPANOLA........................ 68 40 74 43 / 60 10 30 10  
SANTA FE........................ 61 42 66 43 / 70 10 40 10  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 40 70 42 / 60 10 40 10  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 49 74 50 / 30 10 20 10  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 46 76 49 / 30 10 20 10  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 45 79 48 / 20 10 10 10  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 47 77 50 / 30 10 10 10  
BELEN........................... 75 43 78 45 / 30 20 10 5  
BERNALILLO...................... 72 45 77 48 / 30 10 20 10  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 42 78 45 / 20 20 10 5  
CORRALES........................ 73 45 78 48 / 30 10 20 10  
LOS LUNAS....................... 74 44 78 47 / 20 20 10 5  
PLACITAS........................ 68 47 73 49 / 30 10 20 10  
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 46 77 49 / 30 10 20 10  
SOCORRO......................... 76 48 80 50 / 40 20 10 5  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 41 69 43 / 40 10 30 10  
TIJERAS......................... 66 43 70 45 / 40 10 20 10  
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 38 70 40 / 40 20 20 10  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 34 71 34 / 40 20 20 5  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 38 64 39 / 50 20 20 5  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 67 39 70 39 / 40 20 20 5  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 38 69 39 / 40 20 20 5  
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 46 74 45 / 50 20 20 0  
RUIDOSO......................... 62 41 65 40 / 60 30 30 0  
CAPULIN......................... 56 34 63 37 / 50 5 5 0  
RATON........................... 62 35 69 37 / 60 5 10 0  
SPRINGER........................ 62 35 69 37 / 60 10 10 0  
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 35 66 37 / 70 20 30 10  
CLAYTON......................... 64 42 69 42 / 20 10 0 0  
ROY............................. 61 38 66 40 / 60 10 10 0  
CONCHAS......................... 68 43 71 45 / 50 20 10 0  
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 43 69 43 / 50 30 10 0  
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 45 70 45 / 30 20 5 0  
CLOVIS.......................... 68 48 70 46 / 30 20 5 0  
PORTALES........................ 71 47 71 45 / 30 20 5 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 46 71 45 / 40 30 10 0  
ROSWELL......................... 74 52 76 52 / 30 30 10 0  
PICACHO......................... 70 45 71 44 / 60 30 20 0  
ELK............................. 68 42 71 42 / 50 30 20 0  
 
 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-  
215.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...44  
LONG TERM....44  
AVIATION...44  
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