347
FXUS65 KABQ 021928
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE 596DM H5 HIGH HAS MIGRATED FAR EAST OF THE REGION, CENTERED OVER
KY/TN, WITH NM NOW UNDERLYING A SW/NE UPPER LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH A DEEPENING 542DM H5 LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN BC COAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS PUSHED OVER THE STATE, HIGHLIGHTED BY A
PWAT THAT HAS FALLEN TO 0.82" ON THE ABQ 18Z UA SOUNDING. THUS,
MUCH OF THE ATTEMPTED CI ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS STUNTED BY
DRY AIR INTRUSION. HI-RES CAMS DO SHOW SOME ISOLATED SUCCESSFUL CI
MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS.
THIS MAY YIELD A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
REACHING NEAR ROSWELL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AFTER
A CALM NIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE NEXT MONSOON PLUME BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
AZ AND SOUTHWESTERN NM. SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO
DEVELOP, GENERALLY TRACKING SW TO NE. LATE AFTERNOON STORM
ACTIVITY MAINLY THREATENING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING THE ABQ METRO. FRIDAY SEES A SIMILAR PATTERN TO
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, DESPITE THE CONTINUED UPTICK IN PWATS TO THE
1.10" TO 1.25" RANGE, LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE BROKEN DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THURSDAY'S ACTIVITY WILL LESSEN DIURNAL HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION. THIS LOOKS TO LOWER THE STRENGTH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS, SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL FAVOR INITIATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE
MOVING SW TO NE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
SATURDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
MIGRATING BACK WEST OVER MO/KS WITH A LARGE SECTION STRETCHING BACK
OVER NM. THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE AT
THE SURFACE WITH PWATS STILL ELEVATED, ALONGSIDE SLOWER STEERING
FLOW AND STORM MOTIONS. CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN
FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SECONDARY CONVECTION
FAVORING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER NEARBY HIGHLAND AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
AREAS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO AFTERNOON STORMS WITH
FASTER STORM MOTIONS CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THANKS TO THE
ENCROACHING H5 CLOSED LOW MOVING ASHORE THE PACNW SUNDAY BEFORE
EJECTING EASTWARD OVER ID/MT MONDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SEE THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER NM. THIS WILL
KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON STORMS FAVORING INITIATION OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS OVER SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATE DAY AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT TO MODEST AFTERNOON BREEZES. AFTERNOON
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING GOING. THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 MOSTLY FOCUSED ON THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS REACHING KROW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL SEE DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE AND INCREASED HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES RETURNING THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR INITIATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN,
WITH A SW TO NE STORM MOTION FAVORED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLOWER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAVORED SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER NM FROM THE EAST.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS EMANATING FROM AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL THREATEN AREAS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 88 61 87 / 5 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 44 85 46 85 / 0 0 20 30
CUBA............................ 54 83 56 83 / 0 5 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 52 84 53 83 / 0 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 51 81 52 80 / 0 40 30 60
GRANTS.......................... 54 85 55 83 / 0 40 40 60
QUEMADO......................... 55 82 55 81 / 5 40 30 70
MAGDALENA....................... 59 84 59 82 / 5 30 40 60
DATIL........................... 55 80 55 79 / 0 60 40 70
RESERVE......................... 54 88 54 86 / 5 30 40 50
GLENWOOD........................ 58 93 58 91 / 5 20 40 40
CHAMA........................... 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 81 61 80 / 0 5 20 40
PECOS........................... 56 85 58 84 / 0 0 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 82 54 81 / 0 0 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 73 47 72 / 0 0 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 79 40 78 / 0 5 10 50
TAOS............................ 50 85 53 84 / 0 0 10 20
MORA............................ 51 84 53 83 / 0 5 5 50
ESPANOLA........................ 57 89 59 88 / 0 0 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 88 59 87 / 0 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 92 68 91 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 92 65 91 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 94 64 93 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 92 67 91 / 0 0 20 20
BELEN........................... 63 93 63 91 / 0 5 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 65 93 66 92 / 0 0 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 92 62 91 / 0 0 20 20
CORRALES........................ 65 93 66 92 / 0 0 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 92 63 91 / 0 0 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 64 90 65 89 / 0 0 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 92 66 91 / 0 0 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 95 67 93 / 5 5 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 86 60 85 / 0 0 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 62 87 62 85 / 0 0 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 88 57 87 / 0 5 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 90 55 89 / 0 5 10 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 87 59 86 / 0 0 10 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 88 58 87 / 0 0 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 88 59 86 / 0 0 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 91 65 90 / 0 10 10 30
RUIDOSO......................... 58 84 58 83 / 0 40 10 70
CAPULIN......................... 55 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 51 89 55 88 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 52 91 55 91 / 0 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 87 57 86 / 0 0 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 64 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 91 61 90 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 64 99 68 98 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 93 66 93 / 0 5 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 99 70 99 / 0 0 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 69 99 69 99 / 10 10 5 10
PORTALES........................ 70 100 70 99 / 10 10 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 99 69 98 / 10 0 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 71 101 71 100 / 10 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 64 94 64 93 / 10 30 10 40
ELK............................. 60 92 61 91 / 5 40 10 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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