701
FXUS65 KABQ 301902
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
- PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG OVER PORTIONS OF THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY NEAR ROSWELL LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NEW YEAR'S DAY VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW CHANCES FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LASTING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- GUSTY WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEW YEAR'S DAY AND FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN
SOME DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS ON NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED HIGHWAYS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE BANK OF FREEZING FOG THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
HAS BURNED OFF THIS PAST HOUR, BUT IS LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOCUSING AGAIN ALONG THE PECOS RIVER THROUGH
CHAVES COUNTY. LOW VISIBILITY WILL BE A CONCERN IN THESE SAME AREAS
NEAR AND AROUND ROSWELL. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
CONSIDERABLY TODAY RELATIVE TO MONDAY'S READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE
50S FOR MANY AREAS. LIGHT WINDS, AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS WILL
BE THE RULE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WARM FURTHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE STATE, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE AND 60S FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. CLOUD COVER
WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER WESTERN NM AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM LOOKING TO BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO START THE
NEW YEAR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
THURSDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM AND THE NEW YEAR 2026 OFF WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD UP FROM THE EPAC
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A 560DM H5 LOW OFF THE SOCAL
COASTLINE. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH B/W 9,500 AND
10,000 FEET. THEREFORE, ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND
RELEGATED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH LOWER ELEVATIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE GROUND LEVEL CONDITIONS SATURATE AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE H5 LOW OPENS TO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES AZ AND
NORTHERN NM.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY END BEING WIND THROUGH THE
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS STRONG H7 WINDS OF 40-50KTS WITH A MODEST 1002MB
MSLP LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NM. THIS WOULD YIELD
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR TYPICAL AREAS B/W CLINES CORNERS TO THE TX
BORDER WITH CROSSWINDS GUSTING 40-50MPH ALONG NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED HIGHWAYS BEING A CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER GUSTS
MATERIALIZES.
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST OF NM FRIDAY WITH
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND IT OVER THE STATE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CREATING HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL REMAIN A CONCERN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. CALMER, DRY AND CLEARER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THIS COMING
WEEKEND AS THE NEXT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
THEREAFTER, THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE CA COASTLINE WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
INCREASING INTO OUR REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR PREVAILS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THERE, REMNANT LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG
ARE QUICKLY BURNING OFF THIS HOUR AND VFR WILL PREVAIL THERE UNTIL
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN LIFR/IFR IS LIKELY TO RETURN
FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING FOG HUGGING THE RIVER BASIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MST TUE DEC 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AS WINDS REMAIN WEAK. WESTERLY
WINDS INCREASE NOTABLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT SO DOES HUMIDITY WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN AS CONDITIONS
DRY OUT THIS WEEKEND. SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 21 49 32 49 / 0 0 40 50
DULCE........................... 16 55 25 47 / 0 0 20 50
CUBA............................ 21 54 30 49 / 0 0 40 60
GALLUP.......................... 15 55 31 52 / 0 0 60 50
EL MORRO........................ 25 57 36 50 / 0 0 50 60
GRANTS.......................... 16 60 32 55 / 0 0 50 40
QUEMADO......................... 24 60 37 55 / 0 0 50 60
MAGDALENA....................... 29 58 41 58 / 0 0 30 20
DATIL........................... 28 60 38 54 / 0 0 40 40
RESERVE......................... 25 64 35 59 / 0 10 60 60
GLENWOOD........................ 28 67 38 62 / 0 10 60 70
CHAMA........................... 21 51 26 43 / 0 0 10 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 52 35 48 / 0 0 20 40
PECOS........................... 26 59 34 53 / 0 0 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 52 32 48 / 0 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 24 47 27 40 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 52 22 47 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 16 55 24 51 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 25 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 20 59 28 55 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 29 54 36 51 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 54 32 53 / 0 0 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 55 40 56 / 0 0 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 55 37 59 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 57 35 62 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 56 37 59 / 0 0 20 20
BELEN........................... 19 55 32 62 / 0 0 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 26 57 37 60 / 0 0 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 56 31 62 / 0 0 20 30
CORRALES........................ 25 57 36 60 / 0 0 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 55 32 62 / 0 0 20 30
PLACITAS........................ 30 54 39 55 / 0 0 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 57 37 59 / 0 0 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 25 59 38 66 / 0 0 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 52 36 52 / 0 0 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 29 52 36 52 / 0 0 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 55 34 55 / 0 0 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 57 28 57 / 0 0 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 54 34 53 / 0 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 24 55 35 57 / 0 0 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 57 35 57 / 0 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 27 60 39 60 / 0 0 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 31 59 41 55 / 0 0 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 21 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 60 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 17 60 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 21 58 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 21 62 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 24 66 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 21 65 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 62 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 63 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 20 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 21 60 36 73 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 28 67 43 68 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 26 70 42 66 / 0 0 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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