917
FXUS65 KABQ 061143 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
- A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
- VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BRING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL POSE A RISK TO NEWLY
BUDDING PLANTS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION OVER NORTHERN VALLEY
AREAS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTING OVER NM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
OVER WESTERN WY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM NEAR
SALT LAKE CITY THRU NORTHERN CO TO THE FRONT RANGE AND NORTHEAST NM.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN/SNOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THRU CO INTO NORTHERN NM TODAY. MODELS ARE
NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERALL WEATHER IMPACTS ARE STILL IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH A COUPLE DETAILS TO NOTE. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS FRONTOGENESIS TAKING PLACE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SURGES SOUTH THRU NM. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN NM THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD TO THE
I-40 CORRIDOR THRU LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 00Z HREF ENSEMBLE MAX
WIND GUST FIELD HINTS AT A SHARPENING COLD FRONT WITH A BURST OF
INTENSE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
GUSTS MAY REACH EVEN HIGHER OVER EASTERN NM WHERE MORE IMPRESSIVE
FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TRENDED A TAD LIGHTER
WITH A FASTER TROUGH PASSAGE SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO BRIEF AND LIMITED IMPACTS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN.
MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A LATE SEASON FREEZE TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NM. A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS WELL OVER EASTERN NM.
THURSDAY WILL START OUT VERY CHILLY THEN WARM UP NICELY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
MUCH WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH RISING H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS
AND VERY DRY AIR RETURNING TO THE REGION. A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY WILL CREATE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN
NM WILL LEAD TO TEMPS OF 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD UPPER
80S ARE LIKELY IN THE RGV WITH MID 90S OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM. A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EVEN WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
590DM H5 RIDGE CRESTS OVER SOUTHERN NM. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 50-55%
CHANCE THAT ROSWELL HITS 100F BOTH DAYS WHILE ABQ HAS A 90% CHANCE
OF REACHING 90F ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
PATCHY FOG AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NM (IFR NEAR KCAO). SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NM TODAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH FROM CO. AN AREA OF GUSTY SHRA/TS WILL
FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST NM THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD
KABQ, KAEG, AND KSAF THRU 4PM. A BRIEF PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO
40KT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA. THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SURGING SOUTH THRU EASTERN NM
LATE TODAY AND CREATE A PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 45KT. IFR CIGS
OVER NORTHEAST NM TODAY WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM, CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHTER WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10" TO 0.20" WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES NEAR 0.50" WERE COMMON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM THE PAST 24 HOURS. A MUCH COLDER STORM SYSTEM DIVING
SOUTH FROM CO TODAY WILL PRODUCE VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN NM THRU LATE TONIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-5"
ARE EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WITH 1-2" POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CO BORDER OF NORTHEAST NM. SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL TO 6,500' TONIGHT AS
A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH THRU THE AREA. AFTER A COOL START
THURSDAY, A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER ON SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLING TO NEAR 15%
OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN
MOSTLY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 30 71 41 / 30 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 58 24 69 26 / 70 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 59 28 67 35 / 50 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 26 70 31 / 30 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 29 68 36 / 10 20 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 65 27 71 34 / 30 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 62 32 68 37 / 5 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 38 69 44 / 5 5 5 0
DATIL........................... 61 33 67 40 / 0 5 5 0
RESERVE......................... 69 34 75 33 / 5 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 72 40 79 38 / 0 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 50 22 63 29 / 90 20 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 34 66 42 / 50 20 5 0
PECOS........................... 61 28 67 36 / 40 50 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 24 63 36 / 80 60 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 20 53 30 / 90 70 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 20 60 23 / 90 60 10 0
TAOS............................ 57 24 67 28 / 70 30 5 0
MORA............................ 57 26 67 36 / 80 60 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 33 72 38 / 60 20 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 61 32 66 41 / 40 30 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 30 69 38 / 30 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 40 71 47 / 20 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 40 72 43 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 38 75 41 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 39 74 44 / 20 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 38 74 38 / 5 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 37 75 43 / 20 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 36 74 37 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 71 37 75 43 / 20 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 37 74 39 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 38 70 45 / 20 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 38 74 44 / 20 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 76 43 77 46 / 5 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 34 66 43 / 20 20 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 34 68 43 / 20 20 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 32 69 36 / 10 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 28 71 30 / 5 20 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 29 66 38 / 5 40 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 66 32 69 38 / 5 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 33 68 39 / 0 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 42 71 46 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 36 66 42 / 0 5 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 39 22 62 34 / 80 60 5 0
RATON........................... 45 24 66 32 / 80 60 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 25 68 33 / 80 60 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 26 68 36 / 50 60 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 45 28 69 43 / 80 70 0 0
ROY............................. 55 28 66 37 / 70 70 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 33 75 42 / 30 70 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 34 72 41 / 10 50 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 34 74 45 / 20 60 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 73 34 73 45 / 0 30 0 0
PORTALES........................ 75 35 74 45 / 0 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 36 73 42 / 0 20 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 80 43 73 46 / 0 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 72 38 71 43 / 0 10 10 0
ELK............................. 70 36 72 40 / 0 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ201-217-218.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
NMZ228>231.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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