999
FXUS65 KABQ 161858
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS THAT INCREASE THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TODAY, WILL
EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND MOSTLY DRY MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS WITH BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
WETTER STORMS WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW BURN
SCARS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SWELLING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS WHILE DRIER AND RELATIVELY BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
OVER NM. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE RISING, AND PWATS ARE FALLING, A
RECIPE FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND FEW, IF ANY, STORMS. THE ONLY
MEAGER PROSPECTS FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM APPEAR TO BE IN THE
SOUTHERN SACRAMENTOS AND GUADALUPES THIS AFTERNOON, GRAZING OVER
OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AT THE SURFACE, BUT SPEEDS ALOFT WILL HOLD OR EVEN
INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE WINDS AT 700 MB ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 15 TO 35 KT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SPEED MAXIMUM JUXTAPOSED OVER THE USUAL AXIS
STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO BE ORIENTED MORE TO THE LEE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON WEDNESDAY, CAUSING THE SURFACE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN. THIS WILL LEND TO STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH BEING COMMON FROM NORTHWESTERN DOWN INTO CENTRAL
NM. FAINT MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE EASING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE A COUPLE OF DRY STORMS OR VIRGA CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
AND THESE WOULD LIKELY HURL OUT SOME WIDE-REACHING OUTFLOWS.
OTHERWISE, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
KEEP CLIMBING. THIS WILL INTRODUCE MORE RISK OF HEAT IMPACTS AND
ILLNESSES. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS, INCLUDING ROSWELL, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ABQ METRO AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH MIGHT
BE CANDIDATES FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES, AS THEY ARE WITHIN
CLOSE REACH OF THE 105 F THRESHOLD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE-LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL SAG SOUTHWARD,
ALLOWING A BACKDOOR FRONT TO INFILTRATE NORTHEASTERN NM. THIS WILL
SPILL DOWN THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN NM PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY STAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NOTABLE RISES IN DEWPOINTS ARE MODELED WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE YIELDING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OFF OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE SPATIAL COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER LOW. MOISTURE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO ENTER SOUTHWESTERN ZONES VIA
THE GULF OF CA. A COUPLE OF DEEPER CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN COLD POOLS
ARE MODELED INTO THURSDAY EVENING, SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL
ZONES.
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP SETTLING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PLAINS, PUSHING THE MOIST
BACKDOOR BOUNDARY FARTHER WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
ACCELERATE THROUGH GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL MIX
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STILL,
WIDESPREAD PWATS OF 1.0 INCH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE PLAINS WITH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOWN TO ROLL OFF OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS WOULD PUT THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS IN
AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PRESSURE HEIGHTS
WOULD REMAIN RATHER HIGH, SO THIS MAY INTRODUCE CAPPING INVERSIONS
ALOFT, LIMITING STORM COVERAGE IN THE PLAINS FRIDAY.
MOISTURE EROSION LOOKS TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH A HINT OF
WESTERLIES ALOFT BEING INTRODUCED WHILE LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING ENSUES. THIS WOULD PUSH THE BEST MOISTURE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR CELLS TO
INITIATE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATION PLAINS, SO POPS CONSEQUENTLY
REDUCE SATURDAY. FURTHER DRYING IS MODELED INTO SUNDAY, BUT
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE OUR SOURCE FOR ANY
INCREASES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS
MORE BULLISH ABOUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
DRIER AIR IS SWEEPING INTO NEW MEXICO, AND THIS WILL LARGELY SHUT
DOWN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, OTHER THAN A BRIEF-
LIVED STRAY CELL OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS BEING STRONGEST ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE MOST COMMON IN NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT SPREADING OVER
THESE AREAS AND ALSO INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED, ESPECIALLY INTO
WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WHICH MAY
POSE AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NM THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING, AS DRY NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT CONTINUE TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN INTO WEDNESDAY AND
SPREAD FARTHER SOUTH, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANSION OF THE
CRITICAL THREAT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ALREADY UPGRADED FOR
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN
MEETING WIND CRITERIA. THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL OBSERVE MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS, POSING SOME
UNCERTAINTY, AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WATCH REMAINS INTACT THERE.
THE OTHER CONCERNS ARE DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY AND LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY WHERE NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
WILL POTENTIALLY BE FOUND. UNFORTUNATELY, NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS LOOK TO GRACE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL SLACKEN WITH
NO STRONG LONG DURATION WINDY PERIODS. ANY WETTING RAINFALL WILL
COME TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS, MOSTLY ON
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 98 61 98 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 93 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 55 92 58 91 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 94 57 92 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 54 88 57 87 / 0 0 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 56 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 59 88 59 86 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 65 93 66 89 / 0 0 5 20
DATIL........................... 61 89 61 86 / 0 0 0 20
RESERVE......................... 53 92 52 91 / 0 20 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 57 96 55 94 / 0 20 20 20
CHAMA........................... 46 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 91 65 86 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 57 94 58 88 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 87 55 84 / 0 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 44 80 44 77 / 0 0 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 84 34 80 / 0 0 5 30
TAOS............................ 52 90 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 56 89 55 81 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 56 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 59 93 61 89 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 101 69 97 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 102 61 99 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 100 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 64 103 68 99 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 62 100 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 101 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 63 101 66 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 102 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 96 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 104 73 100 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 92 63 90 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 61 94 63 91 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 93 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 95 59 91 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 92 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 95 62 91 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 94 63 90 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 98 66 93 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 58 90 58 85 / 0 0 0 40
CAPULIN......................... 51 91 53 73 / 0 5 10 0
RATON........................... 51 96 53 82 / 0 5 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 53 97 55 83 / 0 0 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 94 59 82 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 63 96 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 59 95 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 102 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 100 66 84 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 102 65 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 101 65 82 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 66 102 66 87 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 104 68 87 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 66 110 73 95 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 65 99 68 90 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 62 94 65 88 / 0 0 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ101-120.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ105-106.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ219.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ124-125.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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