820
FXUS65 KABQ 232321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY.
MORE ISOLATED FIRE CONDITIONS ON WEDESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEK, THREATENING RECORD
HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL MAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT ABOUT A LONGER WINTER FOR THE
EASTERN PART OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT THIS GROUNDHOG MISSED THE
MARK ON NEW MEXICO'S WEATHER BECAUSE WARM, SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS
ARE APPROACHING FAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RAISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT TO STREAM ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME
STRONGER 35 TO 45 KT 700 MB WINDS LOOK TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, CREATING SOME NUISANCE CROSSWINDS
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS. BUMPED UP FORECAST WINDS INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE FOR I-40 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. DIDN'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES
SINCE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CRITERIA AND ONLY GUSTING
UP TO 45 MPH. HOWEVER, IF THE SUB 1000 MB LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DOES TREND STRONGER, GUSTS GREATER THAN
50 MPH MAY BE OBSERVED AT TYPICAL WINDY LOCATIONS SUCH AS CLINES
CORNERS.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO AID IN WARMING UP
THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, INCREASING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S ALL THE WAY FROM CLAYTON DOWN TO
ROSWELL. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL
PLAINS, CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
DUE TO THESE WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CREATING CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER IS LESS CERTAIN ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN THAT
WIND SPEEDS TREND DOWN SLIGHTLY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL STILL BE QUITE BREEZY (NEAR
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE AT 10 TO 15 KTS. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE ALONG ISOLATED PARTS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THERE IS
A CURRENTLY A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER ON WEDNESDAY, INTO THE MID TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE MID 80S
FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SEVERAL TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
THREATENED ACROSS THE STATE, INCLUDING AT ALBUQUERQUE, ROSWELL,
AND TUCUMCARI. OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COOLING
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP FOR THE
WEEKEND, ONCE AGAIN UP TO 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER IN THE EASTERN PLAINS,
THREATENING TO BREAK NEW RECORD HIGHS ONCE MORE. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A
FEW BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL
LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THEREFORE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR SUNDAY ONWARDS. THE
TIMING OF THESE FRONTS COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A NEAR
AVERAGE 70 DEGREE DAY OR A NEAR-RECORD 90 DEGREE DAY FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS ROSWELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH
OCCASIONAL VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. WNW FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25-30KTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MST MON FEB 23 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXIST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT BECOME CRITICAL ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS AND A
DRIER ENVIRONMENT TAKES HOLD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO BELOW 10% ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN AREAS. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20FT WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY CREATE
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS MUCH
LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH ONLY ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE HIGHEST
THREAT WILL FOCUS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND ISOLATED
PARTS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30%
RANGE. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 28 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 18 57 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 28 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 22 67 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 24 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 37 70 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 32 66 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 73 33 76 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 74 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 22 51 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 31 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 57 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 27 50 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 17 55 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 24 61 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 33 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 27 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 66 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 73 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 71 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 27 75 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 34 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 74 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 32 71 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 74 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 37 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 71 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 32 78 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 65 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 30 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 69 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 32 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 69 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 66 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 30 72 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 26 73 30 74 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 27 74 31 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 80 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 31 75 39 77 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 32 83 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 84 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 81 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 35 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 82 49 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 30 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 38 79 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 36 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11
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