794
FXUS65 KABQ 062121
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
221 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
ON SUNDAY.
- WET ROADS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A ROUGHLY 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 8,500
FEET IN ELEVATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AS THE TAIL END OF A SPEED
MAXIMUM ALOFT EXITS EAST OF NM, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS SET UP. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS,
WHERE A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS,
THEN UP TO 35 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO FORECAST IN
CARRIZOZO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF EAST CANYON
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS FAR NORTH AS ALBUQUERQUE.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND LESS GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS SATURDAY
PROGRESSES. IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL FALL UP TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW TODAYS READINGS, WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW TO 6 DEGREES
OVER WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CA COAST EJECTING EAST AND/OR NORTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRAW A MODEST COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN NM WITH RAIN SHOWERS, MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS, AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, RAIN AMOUNTS
ONLY LOOK TO REACH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS
(EQUATING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 8500 FEET). SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW MAY OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY SPREADING ACCUMULATING PRECIP FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AFTER WARMING TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON
MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 7-20 F ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES, READINGS WILL FALL A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TUESDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER EASTERN AREAS
A FEW TO 15 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
ON THURSDAY UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE CO BORDER. OTHERWISE,
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD
SUNSET THIS AFTERNOON AS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP
AND THE TAIL END OF A JETMAX ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A NORTH AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN UP TO
30 KT SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS. EAST CANYON WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY IN CARRIZOZO SATURDAY MORNING,
AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS BELOW CANYONS
OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS FAR NORTH AS ALBUQUERQUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
AFTER WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RETURN GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND AN INCREASING
RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. CURRENT
FORECAST GRIDS DEPICT GREATER COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST AREAS SUNDAY THAN MONDAY, BUT A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM IS FORECAST TO DROP FROM ~1000 MB ON SUNDAY
TO AROUND 997 MB ON MONDAY, SUGGESTING MONDAY COULD BE AS WINDY OR
WINDIER THAN SUNDAY. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR THE WINDS WOULD BE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT EJECTS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW,
BUT MODELS DON'T GENERALLY DEPICT THAT MUCH HIGH CLOUDS REACHING
EASTERN NM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL UPDATE THE AFTERNOON FWF
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS ON SUNDAY, AND LET THE NIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE MONDAY'S WIND
SPEEDS. THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER WINDS ON TUESDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, WHILE
HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 53 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 13 52 15 58 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 19 51 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 15 53 17 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 51 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 54 19 65 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 55 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 54 32 63 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 22 51 28 61 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 19 60 24 69 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 22 65 29 74 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 13 45 17 52 / 20 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 50 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 52 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 48 25 57 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 13 39 21 48 / 20 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 46 14 53 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 15 51 16 61 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 17 53 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 20 58 22 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 25 52 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 54 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 58 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 59 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 27 62 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 59 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 25 61 25 70 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 60 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 24 61 25 70 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 60 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 61 27 70 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 55 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 60 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 64 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 53 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 54 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 22 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 56 20 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 51 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 22 56 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 56 28 65 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 60 34 68 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 28 53 32 61 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 17 51 21 63 / 30 0 0 0
RATON........................... 17 54 18 67 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 57 18 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 53 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 56 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 22 55 25 69 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 25 61 28 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 25 57 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 61 30 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 32 62 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 63 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 61 26 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 35 63 33 72 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 30 58 31 70 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 28 59 29 69 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ221-223-226-
229>234-240.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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