475
FXUS65 KABQ 161935
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 128 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES TODAY, FRIDAY, AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND FRIDAY TO
NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM, INCREASING THE THREAT OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD FROM ANY NEW SPARK.
- A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS
THE AREA. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL
DECREASE, THOUGH WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE ROCKIES.
ON FRIDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN
CO/NORTHERN NM. A SECONDARY TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA EARLY
FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE STATE ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OK/CO/NM BORDER
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE WINDS ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW
ISN'T AS STRONG AS MODELS WERE ONCE DEPICTING AND THE LOCATION
ISN'T IDEAL FOR STRONG WINDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE INITIALLY OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DAYTIME MIXING, THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AROUND
CLINES CORNERS, DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM WHERE GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS NM FROM NW TO SE
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE WITH THE WINDS AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS.
THOUGH THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE WITH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
A 12 TO 16 MB PRESSURE RISE OVER 3 HOURS, SUGGESTING STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50 OR 55 MPH. THUS, IT'S LIKELY THAT
ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. A HARD OR DAMAGING FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FARMINGTON, SANTA FE AND ESPANOLA AREAS, AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. THOUGH SOME OF THESE AREAS HAVE
SEEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY RECENTLY (ON THE ORDER OF
29-32 DEGREES), TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND
WILL LIKELY DO DAMAGE TO ANY EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS. THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO INCLUDE TAOS HAVE SEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SO THEY HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH.
AREAS AROUND THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA MAY ALSO HAVE TEMPERATURES
JUST BELOW 32 DEGREES BRIEFLY (1-2HRS) SATURDAY MORNING. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE EXPANSION OF THE FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, THOUGH WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON TAP
FOR EASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY MODEST GULF MOISTURE MAY
BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY LATE SUNDAY,
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
TUESDAY AND BEYOND, BUT WINDIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BY MID
TO LATE WEEK. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW AND
WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AREAWIDE,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT COMMON, THOUGH GUSTS NEAR 40KT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON FRIDAY MORNING, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER NORTHWEST NM AND RAPIDLY INCREASE WINDS BEHIND IT. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT THU APR 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH
AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS PERSIST. BY THIS EVENING
BETWEEN 4 AND 9 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WILL HAVE OCCURRED
ACROSS MOST AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
MOUNTAIN TOPS OVERNIGHT, THEN WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR EASTERN NM AND THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MTNS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN TODAY. ACROSS
WESTERN NM WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, THOUGH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
WILL BE COMMON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS TODAY, BUT A COUPLE HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT RH IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A QUICK WIND SHIFT LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE CONCERNING IF ANY FIRES ARE
ONGOING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
FROM THE NORTH. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. QUIETER
CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BUT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING BACK CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHEAST NM. STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN MID TO
LATE WEEK, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 55 20 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 32 55 13 59 / 5 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 38 57 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 31 58 16 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 34 59 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 64 20 63 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 64 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 41 69 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 32 70 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 73 34 77 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 50 15 53 / 0 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 60 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 37 63 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 57 22 54 / 0 0 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 32 48 15 45 / 0 5 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 55 11 51 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 32 61 18 58 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 36 61 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 39 68 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 63 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 66 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 70 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 71 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 73 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 72 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 42 75 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 72 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 74 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 46 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 74 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 67 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 72 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 79 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 64 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 67 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 67 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 69 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 65 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 41 69 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 69 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 73 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 66 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 64 19 52 / 0 10 20 5
RATON........................... 34 67 19 57 / 0 5 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 35 69 23 59 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 66 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 45 74 28 59 / 0 5 5 0
ROY............................. 42 71 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 46 79 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 75 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 81 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 82 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 50 83 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 81 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 86 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 48 77 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 75 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ201-217-218-222>224-228>233.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ104-
123>126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ223-228-229-
231-232.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ213>215-240.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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