065
FXUS65 KABQ 242023
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
223 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOWER
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA BORDER WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE STATE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT TIME OF WRITING. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FAVOR SOUTH, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (~1000 J/KG CAPE)
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) COULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. FORECAST PWATS ARE ROUGHLY 2-5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN THESE AREAS. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.50 TO UP TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP
TO 4-4.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MAY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME LOCATIONS OR MOVE OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EVEN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE
DANGEROUS RUNOFF IN URBAN AREAS, ARROYOS, LOW-WATER CROSSINGS, AND
RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS. THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT, WITH OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AND THE UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY
NOW INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL WATCH COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY
BY THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
SPEAKING OF SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TREK INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND COLORADO, SHIFTING THE MOISTURE
AXIS AND PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TOWARD
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. THE GREATEST FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL
LIKELY EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMAINDER OF TODAY COULD
INCREASE VULNERABILITY TO ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WHILE
OVERALL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST DIMINISHES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES, SPECIFICALLY MAXTS, WILL GENERALLY BE
TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER PWATS
WILL BE GRADUALLY DECLINING, REDUCING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING
THREAT. DRIER AIR, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM WEAK RIDGING, AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTING WARMER AND
DRIER TRENDS BY MIDWEEK. THE NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE
WESTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
MORE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO PROMOTE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. LONG
TERM MODELS SUGGEST MODEST SHEAR, BUT INSTABILITY DOESN'T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF
TIME UNTIL WE REACH THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, SO EXPECT GREATER
DETAILS AND FORECAST REFINEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN,
CENTRAL, AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
MORNING. ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DIMINISH IN FAR WESTERN ZONES AND
PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISKS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND AND A LOWER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 30-45 KT. WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND 04Z OR SO,
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
EAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT
KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL PERSIST
THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING/DRYING WILL
FOLLOW EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 60 35 62 / 40 40 10 0
DULCE........................... 42 58 35 60 / 80 60 30 0
CUBA............................ 44 59 36 60 / 80 30 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 60 26 63 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 58 32 63 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 62 27 64 / 30 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 62 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 62 40 63 / 50 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 59 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 64 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 70 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 52 33 54 / 90 60 50 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 56 41 58 / 100 70 30 0
PECOS........................... 42 60 35 62 / 100 70 40 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 56 36 58 / 100 60 40 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 48 30 50 / 90 70 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 52 25 53 / 90 70 40 0
TAOS............................ 40 59 34 59 / 90 70 40 0
MORA............................ 41 58 34 62 / 100 70 40 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 66 41 66 / 90 60 40 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 58 36 63 / 100 70 40 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 61 37 64 / 90 70 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 64 43 67 / 90 50 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 65 44 68 / 80 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 67 43 69 / 80 40 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 65 42 68 / 90 40 10 0
BELEN........................... 49 70 44 69 / 80 30 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 67 43 68 / 90 50 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 46 68 41 69 / 80 30 10 0
CORRALES........................ 48 66 41 68 / 90 40 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 69 40 69 / 80 30 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 63 42 66 / 90 50 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 67 45 67 / 90 40 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 70 44 70 / 80 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 61 40 62 / 90 50 30 0
TIJERAS......................... 47 62 41 64 / 90 50 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 61 38 63 / 90 50 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 62 31 64 / 90 50 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 43 59 38 62 / 90 60 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 62 40 64 / 100 30 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 61 42 63 / 90 50 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 66 48 67 / 90 50 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 45 64 44 64 / 90 40 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 41 57 40 60 / 100 90 70 0
RATON........................... 43 57 37 65 / 100 80 60 0
SPRINGER........................ 44 62 37 67 / 100 80 50 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 56 35 63 / 100 80 50 0
CLAYTON......................... 50 60 48 67 / 100 100 90 5
ROY............................. 48 58 45 63 / 100 90 70 5
CONCHAS......................... 53 66 50 70 / 90 90 80 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 64 49 67 / 100 90 70 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 66 52 70 / 100 90 80 30
CLOVIS.......................... 54 63 51 65 / 90 90 80 50
PORTALES........................ 55 70 53 70 / 90 90 80 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 67 53 68 / 100 90 90 40
ROSWELL......................... 57 67 54 66 / 100 70 70 40
PICACHO......................... 52 69 51 67 / 100 60 50 50
ELK............................. 49 67 48 66 / 100 50 50 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ203-204-210>219-221>224-
226>229-232-233-237>240.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ225-230-231-234>236.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23
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