277
FXUS65 KABQ 261214 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
614 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS SUBSIDING.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- AFTER DRY WEATHER MID WEEK, SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ARE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST IN SPOTS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD UNTIL MID MORNING. LOCATIONS WITH
POOLING WATER ON THE GROUND FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
FAVORED FOR THE FOG, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE DENSE AND MAKE TRAVEL
HAZARDOUS IN SPOTS.
AS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF TWO, BACK-TO-BACK, STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BROUGHT UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXITS
THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST, A WEAKER TERTIARY DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND DOWNWARD, SO THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW. NBM
90TH PERCENTILE QPF SUGGEST A FEW PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 0.75" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
NUISANCE FLOODING WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
OTHERWISE, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH OF NM DRAWS DRY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES AREAWIDE STARTING TUESDAY, THEN
AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC NW
COAST. IT WILL DRAW A RICH RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS NM IN SUCCESSION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GEFS PWATS PEAK FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AROUND 180-250 PERCENT OF NORMAL, WHICH IS QUITE HIGH. HOWEVER,
ACTUAL PWATS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0.50-1.00" FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN WAVE OF
PRECIP WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE INSTABILITY
ISN'T VERY STRONG, SO THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
MINIMAL. SIMILARLY, THE MAIN WAVE OF PRECIP WITH THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO CROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING,
LIMITING INSTABILITY AND THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2 TO +4 C FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, INDICATING THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVER 10K FEET WILL
PROBABLY ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, DEPTH, AND TIMING, BUT
MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PRECIP BREAKING OUT OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID MORNING, EXCEPT INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN SOME EAST CENTRAL LOCATIONS, AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD, PATCHY FOG
WILL IMPACT MANY LOCATIONS UNTIL MID MORNING MONDAY. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST OF
NM DURING THE EARLY MORNING, WHILE A NEW ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AGAIN. THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. CELLS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND
20 KT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 103 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND, WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST
IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST DAILY
THIS WEEK, BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 57 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 36 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 31 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 63 33 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 65 35 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 61 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 68 35 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 73 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 39 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 34 62 36 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 35 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 26 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 19 55 23 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 59 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 60 29 63 32 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 37 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 39 62 39 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 45 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 43 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 45 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 44 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 43 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 66 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 44 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 43 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 44 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 69 49 72 49 / 0 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 40 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 62 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 35 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 33 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 40 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 40 64 41 / 0 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 41 63 42 / 0 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 47 66 48 / 20 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 42 62 43 / 30 10 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 59 38 64 38 / 0 5 5 0
RATON........................... 63 34 68 33 / 0 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 65 32 71 31 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 34 65 36 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 46 69 46 / 10 10 5 0
ROY............................. 62 40 68 38 / 0 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 48 74 47 / 10 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 47 72 47 / 5 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 49 74 50 / 30 20 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 52 71 52 / 50 60 10 0
PORTALES........................ 67 52 72 50 / 40 60 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 51 71 49 / 40 40 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 52 70 48 / 30 40 10 0
PICACHO......................... 65 46 71 46 / 40 20 10 0
ELK............................. 65 44 69 44 / 40 20 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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