603
FXUS65 KABQ 242336 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 531 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND.
- SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY TURN SEVERE BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL,
AND EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST, AS A DISTURBANCE PASSES EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES LOOK SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORMS TO TURN SEVERE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO, AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AS WELL. A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THE DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CO THIS EVENING WILL DRAW RICHER SUBTROPICAL NORTHWARD OVER NM,
UNDERNEATH A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
EL PASO. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF VIRGA SHOWERS AND
DRY STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
EVENING SHOULD ENABLE WETTING FOOTPRINTS TO GROW AFTER SUNSET. BY
THURSDAY, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO VARY AROUND 0.80-1.25" OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LOWER PWATS NEAR THE CO BORDER, WHERE A FEW
DRIER VARIETY CELLS MAY DEVELOP. THE INCREASED MOISTURE ON
THURSDAY, AND ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRACKING EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WILL ENABLE AN UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY. AGAIN, THURSDAY,
SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST AND FAR EAST CENTRAL
NM.
WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN MAINLY TO NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ON THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO STEER SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND SOME MODELS DEPICT PWATS
DECREASING ENOUGH FOR SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS TO
ENTER THE MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
WIND SHEAR OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
DECREASE THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH
SPEED SHEAR FOR A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS LOOK TO FALL A FEW TO AROUND 6 DEGREES
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY FROM TODAY'S READINGS,
THEN HOLD STEADY ON FRIDAY. THESE VALUES WILL VARY FROM NEAR
1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER NORTHWEST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES
ABOVE THE AVERAGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH
RANGE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST US. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY
FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS HUMIDITIES PLUMMET
BELOW 15 PERCENT ALMOST AREAWIDE. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
OVER NORTHEAST AREAS ON MONDAY AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
THERE, AS WELL AS A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES.
IN ADDITION, A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MAY BEGIN TO STEER BETTER GULF MOISTURE
OVER NM'S SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING SUNDAY
ENABLING WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THERE. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE FAR WESTERN
US, DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER NM WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND GRADUALLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, EXCEPT FOR
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS THAT KICK UP PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST AND BRING MVFR
VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST OR WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN NM WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, THEN PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID DAY THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
AFTER WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF GUSTY
OUTFLOW ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE SOME FRIDAY AS SOME DRIER STORMS RETURN TO THE MIX OVER
WESTERN AREAS. AFTER THREE DAYS OF LIGHTNING TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, THEN
PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NORTHEAST, AS VERY DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 91 60 92 / 50 30 30 30
DULCE........................... 47 87 46 87 / 50 20 40 40
CUBA............................ 56 85 54 86 / 40 60 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 52 86 51 88 / 40 60 50 20
EL MORRO........................ 53 84 53 85 / 30 60 60 20
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 52 90 / 50 60 60 30
QUEMADO......................... 56 85 54 87 / 10 60 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 63 89 61 89 / 10 60 40 40
DATIL........................... 58 85 56 86 / 10 60 30 20
RESERVE......................... 52 93 52 93 / 20 40 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 98 58 97 / 10 30 20 0
CHAMA........................... 47 80 45 80 / 50 30 30 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 84 60 84 / 30 60 30 60
PECOS........................... 56 87 55 87 / 40 30 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 82 54 82 / 50 30 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 47 73 46 73 / 50 30 40 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 78 43 78 / 50 30 20 30
TAOS............................ 53 85 51 85 / 40 30 20 40
MORA............................ 53 83 53 84 / 50 30 10 40
ESPANOLA........................ 59 91 57 91 / 30 60 30 60
SANTA FE........................ 61 86 60 86 / 40 40 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 90 57 90 / 30 50 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 93 65 93 / 10 70 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 94 62 94 / 10 70 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 96 61 96 / 10 70 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 94 63 94 / 10 60 40 40
BELEN........................... 63 97 59 96 / 10 70 40 40
BERNALILLO...................... 65 95 63 95 / 20 60 40 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 95 58 95 / 10 70 30 40
CORRALES........................ 65 95 63 95 / 20 60 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 96 59 95 / 10 70 30 40
PLACITAS........................ 65 91 64 91 / 20 60 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 94 62 94 / 20 60 40 50
SOCORRO......................... 69 100 66 100 / 10 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 88 59 88 / 20 60 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 61 89 59 89 / 20 60 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 91 56 91 / 20 50 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 93 53 92 / 20 50 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 88 56 88 / 20 30 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 92 56 92 / 10 50 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 91 58 91 / 10 30 30 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 96 64 95 / 5 30 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 61 90 60 88 / 10 20 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 53 86 50 86 / 30 30 30 30
RATON........................... 53 90 52 89 / 30 20 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 55 91 55 91 / 40 20 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 88 56 88 / 50 20 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 94 58 91 / 20 30 40 50
ROY............................. 57 91 57 90 / 40 20 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 62 100 63 99 / 50 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 96 62 95 / 30 30 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 101 65 99 / 50 20 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 66 100 66 100 / 50 20 20 5
PORTALES........................ 66 102 67 101 / 50 20 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 99 64 99 / 30 30 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 69 103 68 102 / 10 20 20 5
PICACHO......................... 64 98 64 97 / 10 30 20 20
ELK............................. 62 97 62 95 / 5 20 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...11
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