095  
FXUS65 KABQ 290036 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
636 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST  
TONIGHT CONTINUING MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 ON SUNDAY. SOUTH AND  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FAT MOST TAF LOCATIONS LATE MORNING  
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  
 
33  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2020
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS STORE TONIGHT WITH FREEZING TO BELOW FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES MOST PLACES. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE  
WEST WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALL AREAS SUNDAY ALONG WITH  
INCREASING WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO LINE DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. THIS MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON  
MONDAY, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF WIND, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.  
A WARMING TREND REMAINS ON TRACK TO GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY, CONTINUING  
WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
   
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE WEST WILL  
BEGIN TO STEER SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND DULCE AND CHAMA. AHEAD  
OF THE SYSTEM, MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES  
WITH GOOD BUOYANT MIXING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY  
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM A FEW TO AROUND 14 DEGREES ABOVE  
TODAY'S READINGS, WHILE REMAINING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST AND AS  
MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST.  
 
LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...  
A MAINLY DRY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH NM MONDAY.  
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH  
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN. A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CO LINE  
MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCES ELSEWHERE. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST- NWLY  
TUESDAY, ALLOWING A WARMING TREND TO GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO A FEW TO AS MUCH AS  
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING  
SEVERAL DEGREES MORE AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP  
FOR MOST LOCALES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY  
CONDITIONS LIKELY WEDNESDAY. GFS AND ECWMF AGREE THAT MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH NEAR  
WHERE A WEAK SUB-TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH. BRISK WINDS CONTINUE  
THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STOUT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE  
THROUGH EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT  
COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  
 
44/33  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FROM THE WEST  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AND  
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FIRE  
WEATHER FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW TO AROUND  
14 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOCALIZED CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN, ALTHOUGH HAINES INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE  
(WITH LOCALIZED 5'S) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT  
WILL CROSS MONDAY MORNING CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW DEGREES  
IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY  
TO WINDY ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB 15% HUMIDITIES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS  
YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
THERE.  
 
THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF NM DURING THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE WORK WEAK WITH LIGHTER WINDS, DRY WEATHER AND WARMING  
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES  
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEAK, BUT A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK  
DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. SOME DRY AND  
GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST  
AREAS THURSDAY, WHILE THE FRONT TRIGGERS MORE WETTING PRECIPITATION  
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME  
MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AS THE FRONT TRIES TO REACH THE CONTINENTAL  
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN  
WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AND DRY, WITH MORE WETTING PRECIP FURTHER EAST.  
 
44  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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