551
FXUS65 KABQ 211728 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
- FLASH FLOOD RISK INCREASES IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO TODAY,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE
THREAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY, THEN INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL CREATE RISES
ON TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN
AND ANIMAS. NO RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MID-
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE. A CLOSED LOW IS
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL WHILE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER (AR)
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO ARIZONA. A SEASONABLY MOIST
AIRMASS ALREADY RESIDES OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE 30S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER-50S IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
VERY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY IN CENTRAL AZ, WITH
WESTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGES. PWATS SURGE TO 200 TO
350% OF NORMAL OVER NORTHWEST NM, SHATTERING RECORD ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS FOR MID-OCTOBER. RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND LOWER GIVEN THAT THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INLAND. THE PATH OF THE
MAIN CLOSED LOW HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER NORTHWEST AND IS
THEREFORE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS IT GETS PICKED UP QUICKER BY THE POLAR
JET STREAM.
BOTH THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT WEDNESDAY WILL FOCUS OVER THE
NW CORNER OF THE STATE. BOTH THE HREF AND RRFS SHOW BULK SHEAR OF 30
TO 40 KNOTS ALONG WITH SFC BASED CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG OVERLAPPING
IN NORTHWEST NM, WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. FURTHERMORE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 100 TO 150
M2/S2 SUGGEST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IN FAR WEST NM
NEAR THE AZ BORDER. IN FACT, SRH VALUES TREND HIGHER (UP TO 250)
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SFC
BASED CAPE WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NOCTURNAL SUPERCELLS.
HI-RES MODELS ARE BEARISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWING A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF 1" IN A
PERIOD OF 6 HOURS OR SHORTER. THIS LOOKS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS
THE MAIN IVT PLUME FINALLY MOVES INTO FAR WESTERN NM AND THE MAIN
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AN AREA OF FOCUSED CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO PUSH FROM EASTERN AZ INTO WESTERN NM THURSDAY WHERE 6-
HOURLY LPMM RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE HREF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3" WITH THIS MAIN BAND. THIS BAND
WILL BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AS IT CROSSES THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS IT ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL FOCUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP. BAND.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
WILL PERSIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL FOCUS OVER EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
SWATH OF MU CAPE OF 500-700 J/KG WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SOUTH-
CENTRAL NM INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. TRAINING OF
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND THE MARGINAL
ERO HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE. GIVEN THAT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE DRIVING MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION, HIGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MORE NEUTRALLY TITLED, ALLOWING
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO EASTERN NM OVER THE
WEEKEND. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE
PRECIPITATION, BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS COULD IMPACT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY. 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER, WITH
50TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS NOW SHOWING A SWATH OF 2-3" IN THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. HIGH-END GUIDANCE (90TH PERCENTILE)
SHOWS VALUES UPWARDS OF 4.5" FOR THE SAME PERIOD. DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH ONLY LINGERING POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM, ALTHOUGH WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL
LOWERING OF VFR CIGS. SCT/NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING MVFR IMPACTS OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NM. THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AT KGUP AND KFMN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. A WET FALL PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLOWLY TREND DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" COMMONPLACE, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3" IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH IN MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UNUSUALLY MOIST AIRMASS IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA. GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. BRIEF AND INFREQUENT
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH COULD OCCUR NEAR STRONG, FAST-MOVING STORMS
EACH DAY. PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND WEAKER THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 53 68 50 / 80 80 80 80
DULCE........................... 67 47 63 46 / 60 80 80 90
CUBA............................ 68 50 65 48 / 40 40 70 80
GALLUP.......................... 68 51 67 47 / 70 80 80 90
EL MORRO........................ 69 49 64 45 / 50 50 80 90
GRANTS.......................... 70 50 65 48 / 60 40 80 90
QUEMADO......................... 72 52 68 48 / 30 30 80 80
MAGDALENA....................... 71 54 68 51 / 5 5 40 60
DATIL........................... 69 50 65 47 / 30 10 70 80
RESERVE......................... 76 52 70 50 / 40 40 90 100
GLENWOOD........................ 80 57 74 53 / 50 60 90 100
CHAMA........................... 64 46 60 44 / 40 80 80 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 51 66 50 / 5 30 40 70
PECOS........................... 72 48 68 47 / 10 20 30 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 46 66 47 / 0 20 40 60
RED RIVER....................... 65 41 59 41 / 0 20 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 39 65 41 / 0 10 40 50
TAOS............................ 71 46 69 47 / 0 20 30 60
MORA............................ 69 46 67 46 / 5 10 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 76 51 73 52 / 5 30 30 60
SANTA FE........................ 71 52 68 50 / 5 20 30 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 52 70 50 / 5 20 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 57 73 55 / 5 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 56 73 54 / 0 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 56 74 55 / 0 20 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 56 72 55 / 5 20 30 60
BELEN........................... 78 55 75 55 / 0 10 30 50
BERNALILLO...................... 78 55 74 54 / 5 20 30 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 55 75 55 / 0 10 30 50
CORRALES........................ 79 55 74 55 / 5 20 30 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 55 74 55 / 0 10 30 50
PLACITAS........................ 74 55 72 54 / 5 20 30 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 55 73 55 / 5 20 40 60
SOCORRO......................... 80 58 76 56 / 0 5 20 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 51 68 50 / 10 10 30 60
TIJERAS......................... 74 53 70 51 / 10 10 20 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 50 70 49 / 20 10 20 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 49 73 49 / 20 10 10 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 50 69 49 / 10 10 10 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 50 71 50 / 10 0 10 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 51 72 50 / 0 0 5 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 55 75 54 / 10 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 72 51 70 50 / 10 0 0 30
CAPULIN......................... 70 50 70 49 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 74 48 74 48 / 0 5 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 75 48 75 50 / 0 10 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 48 68 47 / 0 10 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 76 54 78 54 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 74 51 72 51 / 0 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 80 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 54 76 55 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 57 82 57 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 81 56 79 55 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 82 56 80 56 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 82 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 78 54 76 53 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 78 53 74 52 / 0 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ201>210-241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
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