625
FXUS65 KABQ 121105 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
405 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 358 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
- LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME NORTHERN AND
WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL CREATE BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIFFICULT
TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE FOR LARGE AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON WEST
TO EAST ROADWAYS.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH NOTABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE FOR LARGE AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES ON WEST TO EAST ROADWAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
WEAK FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER NM BETWEEN AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN H5 LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MX. TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS, WARMER TEMPS, AND
PASSING CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED AGAIN
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DUE TO EXISTING SNOW COVER. STRONG
INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NM TUESDAY AS A 140KT
POLAR JET DIVES SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NM AND ALLOW WESTERLY BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EAST SLOPES AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
WILL TREND ROUGHLY 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL. THE POLAR JET WILL CONTINUE
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN NM WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEFORE
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND FASTER ON
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CANYON
WINDS IN THE RGV WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL TREND ABOUT 5-10F
COOLER OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WEST/NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WESTERLY BREEZES MAY INCREASE AGAIN OVER EASTERN NM WITH WARMING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT, STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER NM BY LATE
THURSDAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. ANY CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS MTS AND NORTHEAST NM HAS VANISHED FROM GUIDANCE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS IN
STORE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN NM MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 358 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE FOR IFR FREEZING FOG EARLY THIS MORNING
NEAR KFMN. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY
CIRRUS TODAY. DRAINAGE WINDS AT KSAF WILL PEAK FROM 15 TO 20KT
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 105 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT TO BURNING OPS WILL BE POOR VENT RATES
OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION THRU NEXT WEEKEND, EXCEPT WEDNESDAY
WHEN VALUES TREND TOWARD FAIR/GOOD IN SOME AREAS. TRANQUIL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST ON MOST DAYS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. PERIODIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING SOME BRIEF STRONGER WIND SHIFTS AND
TEMPORARY COOL DOWNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 18 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 16 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 45 16 47 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 46 9 48 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 16 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 50 11 54 15 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 14 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 25 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 46 20 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 55 17 60 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 58 19 62 22 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 48 19 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 29 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 23 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 17 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 41 14 43 19 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 1 47 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 49 12 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 23 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 18 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 25 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 22 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 26 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 23 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 27 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 18 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 25 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 51 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 25 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 20 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 27 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 26 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 25 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 27 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 47 27 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 23 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 16 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 23 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 21 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 22 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 28 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 46 21 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 18 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 14 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 22 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 22 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 21 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 23 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 23 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 26 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 23 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 20 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 21 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 25 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 58 22 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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