079
FXUS65 KABQ 271731 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1031 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE-TO-LATTER
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ALOFT, CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
BAJA SPUR, MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE FOR THE TIME BEING. THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS DON'T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH. DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ADDS ADDITIONAL WARMING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. UPSHOT
IS THAT NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD-LEVEL WARMTH CONTINUES AS WE CLOSE
OUT FEBRUARY; SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
ALTHOUGH THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN ISN'T "BONE DRY" BY LATE WINTER
STANDARDS, WITH 0.25" OF PRECIPITABLE WATER MEASURED BY THE 00Z
ABQ SOUNDING, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. NW H7 FLOW ACTUALLY TRENDS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, FROM ABOUT 35 KNOTS DOWN TO 25, BUT SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EAST-
CENTRAL NM (PARTICULARLY IN THE LEE OF SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS);
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
WINDS EASE BACK A BIT MORE FOR SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES, MAKING FOR A NICE, WARM DAY TO END THE WEEK. CURRENT
FORECAST LOW OF 42F AT THE ABQ SUNPORT WOULD TIE A RECORD FOR
HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON 28 FEB.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
MARCH COMES "IN LIKE A LAMB", WITH SUNDAY THE 1ST BEING THE
WARMEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH. GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE
ALOFT RE-AMPLIFYING JUST SLIGHTLY, WITH WINDS ACQUIRING A MORE
WNW DIRECTION LEADING TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF NM! CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 80F
AT THE ABQ SUNPORT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST EVER 80F BY SEVERAL
DAYS. WORTH NOTING THAT THE NBM 5.0 PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING
IS ONLY ~25%, HOWEVER. THE SAME GUIDANCE FOR ROW HITTING 90F IS
~35%.
ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THIS FORECAST IS A MODEST
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PENETRATE INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN
NM "SOMETIME" ON SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON ONE'S GUIDANCE SOURCE. 00Z
NAM HAS IT REACHING CLAYTON AROUND 00Z/MON, WHICH SEEMS LIKE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE. AT ANY RATE, NOT
EXPECTING SAID FRONT TO AFFECT THE SEASONALLY HOT TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF I-40.
THE PATTERN ALOFT CHANGES BY MONDAY, WITH JET-LEVEL/H25 FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. H7 GRADIENT SUGGESTS THAT BREEZES BEGIN TO
PICK UP AGAIN. MORE CHANGES IN STORE AS AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
OR WEAK LOW CENTER TREKS ACROSS CENTRAL CO ON TUESDAY. QPF
CONTINUES TO TREND LOWER OVERALL WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE KEEPING LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS <0.10" ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS LOOK RATHER HIGH, WITH ANY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 8500 FT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUE,
WITH ANOTHER FOLLOWING BACKDOOR FRONT COOLING TEMPS INTO WED
(THOUGH STILL 5-10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL). LOOKS LIKE WED WILL
FEATURE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AS SHORT-WAVE/FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST.
BY NEXT THURSDAY (05 MAR), THE NEXT IN A POTENTIAL SERIES OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH
ATTENDANT H5 FLOW INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF THE WSW. 00Z GFS KEEPS
THIS SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE, WHEREAS THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SLOWER-
MOVING CLOSED LOW. MOISTURE TAP IS LIMITED, EVEN IN THE ECMWF
SCENARIO, THOUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY OUTSIDE OF FAR EASTERN NM. GUSTS UP TO 25KTS MAY OCCUR, MAINLY
NEAR KFMN AND KCQC. WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY 03Z, WITH JUST A FEW
BREEZES REMAINING IN EAST-CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE NIGHT. TERRAIN-
INDUCED DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT KSAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
ELEVATED TO PERHAPS VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY EAST-CENTRAL NM, PRIMARILY IN THE
LEE OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS, WHERE RED-FLAG THREAT INDEX
REACHES AS HIGH AS 3 FOR A FEW HOURS. WITH THE RECORD-LEVEL
WARMTH CONTINUING, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 15%,
EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHWESTERN NM. ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENTS (ERC) IN THIS AREAS ARE ANALYZED IN THE 50-60TH
PERCENTILE RANGE. 20-FT. WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, AS
THEY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO TOUCH 20MPH SUSTAINED FOR A FEW HOURS IN
LOCALIZED PORTIONS OF THE ELEVATED AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE.
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALL TO 10-20% IN VALLEY LOCATIONS SAT AND SUN,
BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL AGAIN KEEP THE THREAT OF FIRE SPREAD
RELATIVELY LOW. A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT INCREASES RH ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR MONDAY. UPPER-LEVEL
STORMS SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BRING INCREASING BREEZES AND POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
NEXT TUE/THU, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW-TO-MODERATE. WETTING RAIN
LOOKS VERY LIMITED WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1243 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
ABQ SUNPORT IS FORECAST TO REACH 74F TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE TWO
DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE. SATURDAY'S FORECAST HIGH
OF 76F WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 75F FROM 1972, IF IT VERIFIES.
SUNDAY'S (01 MAR) CURRENT FORECAST HIGH OF 80F WOULD SMASH THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 74F, SET IN 1974. THE CURRENT EARLIEST 80F FOR
ABQ IS 09 MARCH, SET IN 1989. FOR REFERENCE, THE "NORMAL" FIRST
DATE FOR ABQ TO REACH 80F IS 15 APRIL.
FOR ROSWELL, TODAY'S FORECAST HIGH OF 86F SHOULD EASILY BREAK THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF 79 (LAST SET IN 2017). SATURDAY'S CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH OF 87F WOULD TIE A RECORD, AND SUNDAY'S FORECAST OF
88F WOULD EXCEED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 86F (LAST SET IN 2006). IF
ROSWELL MANAGES TO REACH 90F ON SUNDAY (CURRENTLY ~35% CHANCE), IT
WOULD NOT BE THE EARLIEST, BUT MUCH EARLIER THAN THE USUAL FIRST
OCCURRENCE AROUND 22 APR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 34 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 63 25 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 69 28 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 66 37 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 70 30 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 69 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 72 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 69 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 78 37 80 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 82 40 83 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 57 27 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 40 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 67 38 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 33 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 52 29 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 23 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 64 27 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 67 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 71 33 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 65 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 68 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 45 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 39 77 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 75 35 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 40 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 35 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 40 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 43 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 40 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 67 42 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 38 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 33 73 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 40 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 45 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 45 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 65 32 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 70 30 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 30 74 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 70 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 78 37 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 40 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 37 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 78 44 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 79 42 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 41 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 83 44 86 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 81 45 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...77
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