237
FXUS65 KABQ 090807
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
207 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 201 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY AND
MONDAY, SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
00Z RAOBS SHOWED THE H5 RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 598DM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 30S AND LOW 40S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH PWATS BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST OF NM. 00Z MODELS SHOW THE H5 RIDGE DRIFTING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NM TODAY AND MONDAY WHILE WEAKENING TO
NEAR 596DM. A 30KT SPEED MAX ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST NM TODAY THEN WEST INTO SOUTHERN NM
MONDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 40KT. SUBTLE CHANGES WILL BEGIN
TODAY AS THE JET FORCING STARTS TO IMPROVE LIFT AND INDUCE MID LEVEL
PRESSURE FALLS AND DEFORMATION OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. STORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND MORESO MONDAY BUT MOST ACTIVITY
WILL STILL PRODUCE SMALL FOOTPRINTS WITH RAINFALL >0.25". THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS
>50 MPH ALONG WITH MORE WILDFIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING IN DRY
FUELS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL TICK DOWN 1
TO 3 DEGREES MONDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR MORE HEAT ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS A MUCH
LARGER PATTERN SHIFT CURRENTLY UNFOLDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN
IMPACTS THE MONSOON CIRCULATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING NORTHWEST FROM AZ
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY WHILE A SUBTLE H5 TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG
THE U.S. WEST COAST THRU WEDNESDAY. THE MONSOON PLUME WILL BEGIN TO
STAND UP OVER AZ AND WESTERN NM AS 700-500MB LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THE H5 HIGH CENTER MIGRATES EAST TOWARD TX. THE LATEST
00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH AGAIN WITH A ROBUST MONSOON BURST
PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. EACH DAY WILL BE A
DIFFERENT FLAVOR BUT THE RISK FOR STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. TEMPS
WILL ALSO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL WHICH WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED
TO THE BRUTAL HEATWAVE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA SINCE LATE JULY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
BETWEEN 12PM AND 3PM TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY
INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS THRU SUNSET WITH BRIEF RAIN, DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS >40KT, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU MONDAY WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 15% OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.
WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL TODAY AND MONDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS MORE WILDFIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING IN DRY FUELS.
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE STARTING
TUESDAY WITH LARGER FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NM. AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF NM AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 100 66 98 66 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 97 55 96 55 / 0 0 10 10
CUBA............................ 94 61 95 61 / 5 5 5 40
GALLUP.......................... 94 61 93 60 / 10 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 89 58 89 57 / 30 10 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 93 61 93 61 / 30 10 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 90 60 90 60 / 30 30 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 90 64 91 65 / 10 20 10 10
DATIL........................... 87 59 87 59 / 40 20 30 10
RESERVE......................... 95 58 95 58 / 20 20 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 98 64 99 62 / 20 20 40 10
CHAMA........................... 90 54 90 54 / 10 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 65 91 64 / 20 10 30 40
PECOS........................... 92 59 93 59 / 20 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 91 58 91 57 / 10 5 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 86 48 86 48 / 10 10 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 86 43 87 44 / 20 10 40 20
TAOS............................ 95 58 96 58 / 10 5 20 20
MORA............................ 91 55 90 55 / 30 10 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 99 65 99 65 / 10 5 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 94 63 95 63 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 96 61 97 62 / 10 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 70 98 70 / 10 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 70 98 70 / 10 10 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 68 100 69 / 5 10 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 70 99 70 / 10 10 5 20
BELEN........................... 99 67 99 68 / 0 10 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 101 68 101 69 / 10 10 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 66 99 66 / 0 10 0 10
CORRALES........................ 101 69 101 69 / 10 10 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 66 99 67 / 0 10 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 95 68 96 68 / 10 10 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 100 70 100 70 / 10 10 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 100 71 101 71 / 0 10 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 63 91 63 / 10 20 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 94 64 94 65 / 10 20 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 61 96 61 / 10 20 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 57 97 58 / 20 30 10 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 92 61 93 62 / 20 30 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 62 94 62 / 5 20 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 61 92 62 / 0 30 5 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 94 68 / 5 5 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 87 60 88 61 / 10 0 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 92 60 91 59 / 10 10 30 20
RATON........................... 95 57 95 57 / 10 5 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 98 57 98 58 / 20 5 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 94 58 93 58 / 20 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 99 68 98 68 / 10 5 0 5
ROY............................. 95 64 94 64 / 10 20 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 102 69 101 70 / 5 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 67 96 68 / 5 10 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 70 101 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 99 67 99 68 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 99 68 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 69 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 99 70 100 71 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 96 65 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 93 60 95 62 / 0 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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