077
FXUS65 KABQ 021126 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NM SATURDAY
MORNING.
- GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND UPPER
TULAROSA VALLEY THIS MORNING. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR EL PASO, TX THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH EASTERN NM AND
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY WINDS OF 25-35
MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND THE UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A FEW
LOCATIONS WITHIN WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE HAVE GUSTED ABOVE 50
MPH THIS MORNING, SO WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS.
LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF
EASTERN NM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
IN THIS AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THIS AFTN. WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NM, THEN ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE ALSO REMAINS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NM THIS MORNING, BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR PATCHY
FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
AREAWIDE, THOUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF I-40.
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM, BUT
ELSEWHERE, SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TO 592DAM, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES THROUGH
THE AREA AND EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW STRENGTHENS AS WELL. AT H7, A
30KT JET STREAK IS NOTED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH SURFACE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25-35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL NM, TO
INCLUDE ABQ, IN THE AFTN. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET, THOUGH THE UPPER HIGH WILL
WEAKEN. THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WILL OCCUR.
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING THAT THE SHORTWAVE
THAT CROSSES NM ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WEAK, AND
WILL PRODUCE LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIPITATION. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
TUESDAY. RATHER, IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB. ALL AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS. AN UPPER
HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 25-30KT WILL CONTINUE BELOW CANYONS IN THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THROUGH THE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH
TONIGHT, THOUGH CIGS MAY DIP BRIEFLY INTO IFR THIS MORNING AND/OR
MAY BRIEFLY RISE INTO LOW VFR THIS AFTN/EVE BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN.
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TODAY, AND ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS WESTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND SATURATED SOILS. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE, THOUGH EASTERLY WINDS WILL GET
GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL
NM ON SUNDAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
ALL AREAS. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER BY THAT TIME, BUT
DAYTIME RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25%.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 49 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 72 38 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 43 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 39 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 68 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 68 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 44 68 48 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 47 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 68 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 46 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 66 41 73 45 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 40 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 33 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 23 69 24 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 68 37 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 62 39 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 42 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 67 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 50 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 44 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 49 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 49 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 73 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 73 47 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 71 47 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 50 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 42 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 67 44 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 41 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 42 69 46 / 5 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 41 70 44 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 42 69 45 / 5 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 47 70 49 / 20 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 39 63 44 / 70 40 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 41 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 67 41 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 41 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 41 72 45 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 63 46 76 51 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 64 43 72 47 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 48 77 51 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 48 74 50 / 10 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 49 76 50 / 40 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 50 72 52 / 30 20 10 0
PORTALES........................ 63 50 73 52 / 30 30 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 50 74 51 / 20 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 55 74 54 / 40 30 10 0
PICACHO......................... 60 50 70 48 / 90 60 10 0
ELK............................. 58 47 67 46 / 90 70 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NMZ224-225.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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