490
FXUS65 KABQ 162019
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
119 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DANGEROUS TRAVEL MAY OCCUR FOR
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING LOW
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY. SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONG WINDS, BLOWING SNOW,
AND LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SNOW MAY SPREAD TO A LARGER AREA OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK (PEAKING
WEDNESDAY) ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE IS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS PRESIDENT'S DAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. UPPER AND MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE STATE WITH 700 MB WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS
AND NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT AROUND
30 TO 40 MPH. WITH THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS! SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH PEAK GUSTS OF AROUND 50 TO
55 MPH COME SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 45
TO 60 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY
MILD IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S.
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AROUND A ~ 515 DAM UPPER LEVEL
LOW OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH COLUMBIA MOVES ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY MORNING. A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NM MID MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NM WILL PROBABLY QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH DUE TO 700 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM AROUND -1 DOWN TO -6 TO -8 DEG C BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT. THE HREF SHOWS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW SQUALL
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND HIGHLANDS (INCLUDING GALLUP,
DULCE, AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT I-40) AND IF THIS DOES
MATERIALIZE, A SNOW SQUALL WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS
BAND. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A QUICK BURST OF POTENTIALLY 3
TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH WILL RESULT IN NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM
BLOWING SNOW AND EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES, EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS ACCUMULATING EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, THE WINTER STORM WATCHES ACROSS
THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO
WINTER STORM WARNINGS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
RGV AND AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO DRYING
EFFECTS FROM DOWNSLOPING.
THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ON TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. STILL
LOOKING AT A STRONG PACIFIC JET WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 150 TO 180
KTS AT 250 MB ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW THESE STRONGER WINDS HIGHER UP ALONG WITH
700 MB WINDS OF 45 TO 60 KTS TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATE
TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45
MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 50 TO 70 MPH. THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SEE THE UPPER
END OF THIS RANGE OF WINDS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.
ZONES IN CENTRAL NM WEST OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING (INCLUDING TAOS,
LOS ALAMOS, SANTA FE, GRANTS, THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO, AND SOCORRO)
ARE NOW UNDER WIND ADVISORIES DUE TO EXPECTED GUSTS OF 50 TO 58 MPH.
THERE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS WILL BE
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL
HIGH WIND GUSTS ON SANDIA CREST AND AREAS JUST EAST, INCLUDING
EDGEWOOD. WITH THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS, RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID
20S, BUT THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL OVERCOME THE MARGINAL HUMIDITY
VALUES AND ALLOW ANY POTENTIAL FIRE TO SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS.
WINDS TAPER OFF SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN ELEVATED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAIN
BRISK AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. APPROACHES THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 700 MB
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS COMBINED WITH A 990 TO 995 MB SURFACE LEE
LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG, THANKFULLY NOT AS STRONG
AS TUESDAY. ANOTHER SET OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU, CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ADJACENT
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ISSUE THIS ADVISORY TO
SIMPLIFY MESSAGING. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND EASTERN NM WILL BE LOWER THAN TUESDAY AT
AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT DUE TO DRIER AIR IN PLACE. TUESDAY'S WINDS
WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE FAVORABLE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE
SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED PRECIPITATION
WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM
WEDNESDAY SPREADING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW DUE TO 700 MB TEMPERATURES AT AROUND -6 TO -10 DEG
C. PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF MID THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS SHORTWAVE
EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE NOT AS IMPACTFUL AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
MID RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE STATE IN QUASIZONAL FLOW BETWEEN
THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. STILL LOOKING
AT GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR MANY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. ANOTHER
SET OF WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST THURSDAY MOVES
INLAND OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY. MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW THE
SHORTWAVE BRUSHING NEW MEXICO WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND STRONG DRY WEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND SOME OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A DEEPER SHORTWAVE/POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY. THIS DEEPER AND LESS LIKELY (~20%)
SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD WILL BE
COLDER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM AND WEST OF THE RGV WHILE LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV AND EASTERN NM COOL DOWN LESS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS COUNTERACTING THE LOWERING HEIGHTS. THE
ACTIVE STORM CYCLE FINALLY ENDS THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ON SATURDAY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, AND LOWER RGV UNDER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH LLWS AT MOST
TAF SITES. A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO WESTERN NM, INCLUDING
KFMN AND KGUP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY PUSHING TOWARDS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY QUICKLY
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AT KGUP AND PROBABLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE BAND AT KFMN. THIS BAND WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MFVR
CONDITIONS WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT ALL TAF
SITES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS,
INCLUDING KTCC, WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST MON FEB 16 2026
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ACROSS
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS. MUCH STRONGER TO DAMAGING
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL IMPACT NEW MEXICO TOMORROW AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER
A LARGER AREA OF EASTERN NM. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 55 TO 70 MPH ALONG
WITH MARGINAL MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 30% WILL ALLOW FOR
ANY POTENTIAL FIRE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST. WINDS REMAIN PRETTY
GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THANKFULLY NOT AS STRONG AS TOMORROW AS A
SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE STATE. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55
MPH COMBINED WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO
20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD
AMONG DRIER FINE FUELS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SECOND DISTURBANCE
AND AHEAD OF A THIRD DISTURBANCE. THESE GUSTY WINDS WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT AROUND 12 TO 20%
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL RAPID FIRE SPREAD AMONG FINE FUELS ACROSS
THIS PART OF THE STATE. WEST WINDS LOOK TO RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AS THE THIRD DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK OF THIS THIRD DISTURBANCE, BUT A
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD RESULT IN DRY GUSTY WEST WINDS AND ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 48 31 45 / 40 80 10 70
DULCE........................... 32 41 24 40 / 60 90 30 90
CUBA............................ 33 42 22 43 / 10 80 5 50
GALLUP.......................... 35 43 26 41 / 60 90 0 50
EL MORRO........................ 35 40 23 41 / 20 90 0 30
GRANTS.......................... 36 44 22 46 / 10 80 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 36 45 26 46 / 10 60 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 41 51 30 54 / 0 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 37 44 27 45 / 0 40 0 0
RESERVE......................... 37 47 28 47 / 40 90 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 40 50 31 52 / 30 90 0 20
CHAMA........................... 28 35 19 33 / 50 100 40 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 44 25 44 / 10 70 5 40
PECOS........................... 35 47 22 48 / 5 60 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 41 21 37 / 5 90 10 50
RED RIVER....................... 27 33 15 30 / 5 90 20 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 39 15 35 / 5 90 10 40
TAOS............................ 35 43 21 43 / 10 80 10 40
MORA............................ 37 49 22 47 / 0 60 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 39 55 24 53 / 10 30 5 30
SANTA FE........................ 37 47 25 48 / 5 50 5 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 51 25 51 / 5 30 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 41 54 31 57 / 5 20 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 56 30 59 / 0 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 59 29 62 / 0 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 57 29 59 / 5 10 0 5
BELEN........................... 43 62 28 62 / 5 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 57 30 59 / 5 20 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 60 28 62 / 5 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 41 57 29 60 / 5 10 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 60 28 62 / 5 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 54 30 54 / 5 30 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 40 56 29 59 / 5 10 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 45 63 30 65 / 0 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 50 27 52 / 0 50 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 40 51 28 52 / 5 40 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 52 24 55 / 5 50 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 54 21 57 / 5 40 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 49 23 52 / 0 30 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 54 26 56 / 5 30 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 56 27 56 / 0 20 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 57 32 57 / 0 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 51 30 52 / 0 30 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 40 56 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 37 56 24 51 / 0 10 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 43 60 25 55 / 0 10 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 53 23 52 / 0 20 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 48 65 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 45 60 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 68 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 64 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 70 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 71 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 47 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 69 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 46 74 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ212-215-
223-226>240.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123-125-126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ207-208-211-
216>222-224-225.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ210.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ213-
214.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ123.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ202.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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