242
FXUS65 KABQ 180224 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
824 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 823 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL IMPACT FAR
EASTERN NM BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
HAVE ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM WHERE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 755 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AT BRINGING STRONG WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TO EASTERN NM. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE ACROSS CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. NPW ALREADY OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
HOT, DRY, AND WINDY BASICALLY SUMMARIZES THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. 700 MB WINDS TREND STRONGER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (30 TO 40 KTS) SO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO DECOUPLE
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR IN MANY
LOCATIONS, INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE AND ROSWELL WHERE RECORD HIGHS WILL
BE THREATENED.
FAR SOUTHWEST NM IS ON THE FRINGES OF AN AREA OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT WILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A
SMALL POCKET OF INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA SHOULD SPARK AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
SURFACE. INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST
OR TWO IN SOUTHWEST CATRON COUNTY GIVEN HOW DRY AND DEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM LATE TONIGHT, PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY LATE MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE SO THERE
MAY BE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 55 MPH WITH ITS PASSAGE IN CURRY AND
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT
LOWER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE DROP IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE TEMPS SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 80F. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION. INTENSITY SHOULD BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY SO THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS REMAINS LOW. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MORE ROBUST IN SOUTHEAST NM (SFC BASED CAPE >2000 J/KG), ALTHOUGH
THIS INSTABILITY MAY NOT GET TAPPED INTO UNTIL THE LATE EVENING
HOURS THANKS TO STORM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY, TRANSLATING TO AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHERMORE, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST, HELPING TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS SO STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD.
HOWEVER, BULK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WILL BE THE LIMITING SEVERE
FACTOR.
WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING THE STATE DRY AND
HOT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, WITH
MODERATE HEAT RISK IN MOST AREAS BELOW 7,000 FEET. SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL AND IT WILL BE THE HIGHEST SUN ANGLE OF THE YEAR DURING THE
SOLSTICE SO THE UV INDEX WILL BE DANGEROUSLY HIGH.
A BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE REPLENISHES MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE INTERACTION OF THIS MOISTURE WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY CREATE A SEVERE THREAT EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING THE HOT AND DRY
WEATHER AROUND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY WANE WITH
SUNSET. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT A
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET
BEFORE WANING, EXCEPT AROUND KROW WHERE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 09Z THU AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT RACES
TRHOUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT BACKS UP
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
TODAY WILL BE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
NEW MEXICO. RFTI VALUES RANGE FROM 4 TO AS MUCH AS 9 ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING CONSIDERING THAT
ERCS ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN THIS AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT TREND STRONGER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SO
SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST NM OVERNIGHT, SURGING
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AND CREATING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH
WITH ITS PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK OF MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE,
BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SLOWLY ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM
MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE FOCUSED OVER THE SAME AREAS ON FRIDAY.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON SATURDAY AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE ALONG WITH HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY POOR OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH 10 TO 15 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM BOTH DAYS. MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
FROM THE EAST WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES FOR EASTERN AREAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 98 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 94 49 93 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 93 55 91 / 0 5 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 57 88 56 87 / 0 5 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 93 55 92 / 0 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 87 56 87 / 0 0 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 90 62 89 / 5 10 10 10
DATIL........................... 62 86 58 87 / 0 20 30 5
RESERVE......................... 51 91 49 93 / 20 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 95 53 97 / 20 40 10 0
CHAMA........................... 49 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 89 62 86 / 0 10 5 30
PECOS........................... 59 91 54 89 / 0 10 5 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 87 54 86 / 20 0 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 77 46 76 / 20 5 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 82 41 81 / 20 10 5 40
TAOS............................ 55 90 54 88 / 5 0 0 10
MORA............................ 56 84 51 84 / 0 20 5 50
ESPANOLA........................ 63 97 61 94 / 0 5 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 91 59 89 / 0 10 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 94 57 92 / 0 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 99 68 97 / 0 0 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 98 66 97 / 0 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 101 63 100 / 0 0 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 100 65 98 / 0 0 10 0
BELEN........................... 67 100 63 99 / 0 0 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 101 63 99 / 0 0 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 99 61 98 / 0 0 10 0
CORRALES........................ 67 101 64 99 / 0 0 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 99 61 98 / 0 0 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 65 94 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 99 65 97 / 0 0 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 101 68 100 / 5 0 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 92 59 91 / 0 5 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 64 93 60 92 / 0 5 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 91 57 92 / 0 5 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 93 53 93 / 0 5 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 86 54 88 / 0 5 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 92 57 92 / 0 10 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 91 57 90 / 0 20 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 95 63 93 / 0 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 62 87 56 85 / 0 30 20 60
CAPULIN......................... 53 75 50 82 / 5 0 0 50
RATON........................... 54 84 50 86 / 5 0 0 50
SPRINGER........................ 56 84 52 87 / 5 0 5 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 85 54 85 / 0 5 5 40
CLAYTON......................... 61 78 56 85 / 0 0 5 10
ROY............................. 60 78 54 84 / 0 0 5 30
CONCHAS......................... 63 85 60 92 / 0 0 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 85 60 89 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 83 61 91 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 65 83 61 89 / 0 5 10 5
PORTALES........................ 66 89 62 91 / 0 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 88 62 92 / 0 5 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 74 97 66 96 / 0 0 10 10
PICACHO......................... 69 92 60 91 / 0 10 10 30
ELK............................. 66 89 57 88 / 0 30 10 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-106-
109-120-124-125.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ235-236.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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