538  
FXUS65 KABQ 221734 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1134 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL IN/NEAR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ARE IMPACTING KROW. OTHERWISE,  
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A  
BACKDOOR FRONT. A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, FOCUSED  
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TERMINALS MOST  
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE KGUP, KSAF AND  
KLVS. AN AREA OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND  
PROGRESS W-SW OVERNIGHT ACROSS CHAVES AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, IMPACTING  
KROW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND  
IMPACT KLVS, KTCC AND POSSIBLY KSAF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS  
PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.  
 
11  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
NOTABLY COOLER AND WETTER TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING  
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AS WELL AS AFTERNOON STORMS  
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS OVER THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE SLOW-MOVERS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING FLASH  
FLOODING FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,  
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN  
BEFORE ROLLING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO SURROUNDING  
VALLEY AREAS, WITH EASTERN NEW MEXICO SEEING A DROPOFF IN STORM  
POTENTIAL. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST PICKS BACK UP THURSDAY WITH  
STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.  
TEMPERATURES, AFTER BEING MUCH COOLER TODAY, WILL GENERALLY TREND  
UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS  
NOT IN THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN  
CHAIN AND TO CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING, PROGRESSING THROUGH THE  
AZ BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS BEEN RECHARGED BEHIND THE  
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH CENTRAL  
AND WESTERN NM. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOAKING MUCH OF THE AREA.  
THE NAM HAS HELD ONTO A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE REIGNITING AN AREA OF  
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THIS  
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEADY EAST-  
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER  
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE UPPER HIGH SETTING UP  
NEARER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER NEAR THE  
DIVIDE WITH MOTIONS MORE TO THE S/SE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL  
NM. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE  
NEAR I-40 AND THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS DUE TO THE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS  
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST, ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO  
BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MAJOR RAIN  
SOAKING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE  
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH THE BACKDOOR PUSH WILL DROP  
TEMPERATURES TODAY 10-25F ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.  
 
TONIGHT...STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL TAPER  
OFF AFTER PEAK HEATING TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH, KEEPING SHOWER/STORMS GOING WELL  
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NM STRETCHING INTO  
LINCOLN, SOCORRO, AND CATRON COUNTIES.  
 
REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER SLIDES FURTHER N INTO UT BY TUE WITH  
STEADY N-S FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT OVER NM. THE EAST SEES A DROP OFF OF  
STORM COVERAGE WITH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BECOMING  
THE MAIN FOCAL AREA FOR STORM GENERATION. THIS CONTINUES WED WITH THE  
UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SUBTLY EASTWARD NEAR THE NM/CO BORDER, AS DRIER  
MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. STORMS  
AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THU CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG NW  
FLOW SPARKING MORE CONVECTION OFF THE SANGRE'S HEADING SE INTO THE  
EASTERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST OF  
THE STATE. LONG RANGE, MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING  
FURTHER WEST WITH A REVERSE MONSOON PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEW MEXICO  
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
24/RJH  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM AS A  
SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNE AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO  
REGENERATIVE STORMS WHILE PUSHING GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE  
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. BY THIS AFTERNOON, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE  
ADVANCED INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NM, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE  
IN STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COOLER  
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SPREAD WEST WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, AND  
READINGS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN ZONES TODAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
ONLY THE FAR WESTERN ZONES DROPPING AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY  
NEAR GAPS AND CANYONS IN CENTRAL NM.  
 
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY OVER MOST ZONES TUESDAY,  
RISING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS  
HIGH PRESSURE ORBITS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NM IN THE COMING DAYS,  
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NM WITH SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE  
AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL OBSERVE THE FEWEST STORMS THIS WEEK.  
A TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING, BURN SCAR  
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS REMAINING THE BIGGEST  
CONCERNS.  
 
52  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-538>540.  
 
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING  
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507.  
 

 
 

 
 
33  
 
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