043
FXUS65 KABQ 021201 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 442 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
- PERIODS OF WET ROADS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AREAS, AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO
THE ARIZONA BORDER. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR AND
ABOVE 9,500 FEET IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE SLICK
TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 60 MPH TODAY WILL PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ROADS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGH PLAINS.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, WHERE A FEW NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NV EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE PRODUCING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT FOR
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR AND ABOVE 9500
FEET. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL THIS MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS,
WHERE PRECIP WON'T DEVELOP UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL VARY AROUND 5 TO 19 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS TODAY AS A
GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS
AT 700 MB WILL PEAK AROUND 40-50 KT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS OVER EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. A ~1000 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NORTHEAST
NM WILL ALSO PRODUCE THE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 50 MPH TODAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AS FAR NORTH AS LAS VEGAS
AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 60
MPH WIND GUSTS IS ALSO LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED HIGH WIND
ZONE FROM CLINES CORNERS TO VAUGHN.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL AROUND 4 TO 19 DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT'S READINGS, WHILE
REMAINING AROUND 4 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ENABLING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AROUND 7 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE
30-YEAR AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER NM. HIGHS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 10-21 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES SUNDAY, WHEN A FEW
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CENTRAL AND
EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
BASE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM, AND THESE WILL GIVE PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE A
ROUGHLY 10-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY
THE TIME IT PASSES EASTWARD OVER NM WEDNESDAY, WHEN SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY WETTING PRECIP ALONG AND WEST OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUS, THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALMOST
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO INTO THURSDAY WHEN PRECIP CHANCES
WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES NM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 442 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND PERIODS
OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS, AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL MID MORNING;
EXCEPT UNTIL MIDDAY NORTHWEST. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT RAIN AND
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. MEANWHILE, A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY MIDDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 KT ARE
EXPECTED, EXCEPT AROUND 50 KT FROM CLINES CORNERS TO VAUGHN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL TREND WEAKER WITH SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE 15% FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EXCEPT
FOR SOME SUB-15% HUMIDITIES OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WETTING PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
NM TODAY, THEN IT IS PROBABLY NOT LIKELY AGAIN UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN
WHEN WE ARE FORECASTING 15-35% CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. AFTER TODAY'S STRONG WIND EVENT AND CORRESPONDING
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND WIDESPREAD POOR
VENTILATION WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AND
VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE AGAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 27 51 31 / 70 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 20 54 25 / 90 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 24 54 28 / 70 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 20 57 23 / 40 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 24 58 26 / 50 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 22 59 24 / 30 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 25 62 27 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 31 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 27 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 24 64 26 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 62 28 66 30 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 18 49 24 / 90 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 30 52 35 / 50 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 27 57 31 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 24 51 30 / 40 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 17 48 22 / 40 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 8 52 21 / 40 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 21 54 25 / 50 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 25 59 30 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 25 57 29 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 29 54 32 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 26 55 30 / 40 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 32 56 37 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 33 56 36 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 27 58 30 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 31 56 35 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 63 28 57 30 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 29 58 34 / 20 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 27 57 28 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 30 58 33 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 28 56 29 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 31 55 35 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 31 56 35 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 29 54 34 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 29 54 35 / 20 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 28 56 33 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 25 59 25 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 28 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 28 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 33 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 32 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 57 25 56 31 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 59 24 57 26 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 60 23 61 25 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 27 58 32 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 33 61 38 / 20 5 0 0
ROY............................. 61 28 58 31 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 29 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 32 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 31 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 35 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 69 32 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 72 37 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 37 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ221-222-229-232-234>237-239.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ223-233.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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