966
FXUS65 KABQ 012328 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHILE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
- WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW HAS OPENED UP AND IS EJECTING QUICKLY EAST INTO FAR
WEST TX AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO CREATE AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A
ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED CONVECTION HAS SPROUTED
ALONG/NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE
AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE RGV AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, DESPITE A LACK OF CURRENT IMPACTS, WITH
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE CAMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION. THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER ON SATURDAY AND HELP TO GENERATE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS W/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT WITH HIGHS
5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUN/MON, BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME
HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME ON MONDAY AND
STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME MIXING TO PRODUCE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW, FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WITH THE MID WEEK PACIFIC LOW. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER AIR
FEATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ALL AGREE ON A
WEAKENED AND DISPLACED JET STREAM, MEANING NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING, WHILE STRATIFORM RAINFALL SLOWLY
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM, AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ONGOING WITH PRECIPITATION, BUT MVFR TO IFR
CIGS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AFTER THE PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES. PATCHY
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP, AND FOG IS ALREADY OCCURRING AROUND KSRR.
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS UP TO 35KT REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KABQ THROUGH
02Z, BUT LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE WIND SPEEDS SLOWLY DECREASING.
NONETHELESS, THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
02Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ON SATURDAY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. MOST OF THE STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, MAINLY DUE TO IMPROVING ERCS AND A LACK OF
DRYING WIND SYSTEMS. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL A ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS
WILL TREND UP AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AREAS WHERE ERCS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
BACK HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM GOING
THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 70 42 75 / 10 5 5 5
DULCE........................... 28 65 31 70 / 40 20 10 10
CUBA............................ 31 61 35 68 / 50 30 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 34 65 34 71 / 30 20 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 35 60 36 67 / 50 40 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 34 62 34 70 / 60 40 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 38 63 38 68 / 40 40 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 39 59 41 67 / 60 40 30 30
DATIL........................... 38 57 38 65 / 70 60 30 30
RESERVE......................... 37 67 36 72 / 40 50 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 38 72 39 77 / 30 40 10 10
CHAMA........................... 27 58 30 63 / 60 30 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 60 41 66 / 60 30 10 20
PECOS........................... 30 59 34 67 / 60 40 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 58 33 64 / 70 30 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 22 48 27 54 / 70 30 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 19 52 22 60 / 70 30 20 20
TAOS............................ 28 61 31 68 / 70 20 10 10
MORA............................ 26 56 30 65 / 70 30 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 37 66 40 73 / 60 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 34 60 39 68 / 60 40 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 63 37 71 / 50 30 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 64 47 72 / 40 40 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 66 45 73 / 30 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 68 44 75 / 30 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 66 45 74 / 40 30 10 20
BELEN........................... 38 68 40 75 / 40 20 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 40 67 44 75 / 40 30 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 68 40 75 / 30 30 10 20
CORRALES........................ 40 67 44 75 / 40 30 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 38 68 40 75 / 40 30 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 40 63 44 71 / 40 40 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 66 45 74 / 40 30 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 43 67 45 75 / 50 30 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 59 40 67 / 40 40 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 37 61 41 68 / 40 40 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 61 37 69 / 40 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 62 28 71 / 30 30 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 58 36 67 / 30 30 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 59 38 68 / 30 40 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 58 37 67 / 30 50 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 60 44 68 / 40 50 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 35 53 39 63 / 40 50 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 27 60 34 68 / 30 10 5 10
RATON........................... 27 64 31 72 / 50 10 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 29 65 32 74 / 50 10 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 58 33 68 / 50 20 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 35 68 42 76 / 20 5 0 5
ROY............................. 32 63 37 72 / 40 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 36 69 41 79 / 30 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 65 40 74 / 30 20 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 71 43 80 / 20 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 39 67 42 76 / 20 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 39 69 41 76 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 67 41 76 / 20 20 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 44 67 45 77 / 20 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 39 60 40 73 / 30 20 10 5
ELK............................. 35 57 36 71 / 40 20 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ210.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ213>215.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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