719
FXUS65 KABQ 172320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MID
WEEK, WHILE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN PERSISTS, WITH A WEST COAST
RIDGE AND CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH. THIS PATTERN IS STEERING
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE REGION, WITH THE 18Z KABQ
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING 75KTS AT 500MB. AT THE SAME TIME, A
COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND IS MORE NOTABLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
20S AND 30S. PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL TREND UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS SOME TO THE NORTHWEST. WARMING WILL BE THE RESULT ON
SUNDAY, WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LIFTING TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY'S
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE NEXT IN AN ONGOING SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL SLIDE
INTO NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CREATING A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND
INTO THE RGV THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER
WILL BE IN FULL-EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NM ON MONDAY, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 20 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY'S. THE
FRONT WILL SLIDE OUT AND BE REPLACED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS
ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM, BRINGING 10-20 DEGREES OF WARMING
RELATIVE TO MONDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER AREAWIDE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING GOING INTO THURSDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE TOWARD THEN END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS AND ALLOWS FOR A
PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, THERE
IS NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD FOR FRI/SAT AT THIS TIME AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IS POOR WITH REGARD TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/LOW.
SO, WILL REFRAIN FROM GETTING LOST IN THE WEEDS ON THE FRI/SAT
PERIOD, BUT POPS DO COME BACK TO THE FORECAST AND THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
PREVAILING WINDS TAPER OFF AREAWIDE PAST SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND SETTING UP AT KSAF LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PREVAILING WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AREAWIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT
EASTERN NM THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE AND VENT RATES RANGING FROM POOR TO FAIR. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BRINGING
INCREASED HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 49 17 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 48 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 53 17 52 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 13 56 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 54 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 26 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 22 54 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 20 64 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 66 27 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 16 44 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 47 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 20 52 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 15 47 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 15 40 18 35 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 3 45 9 38 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 11 49 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 17 56 19 42 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 53 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 22 48 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 20 49 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 52 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 52 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 25 54 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 55 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 53 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 55 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 53 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 50 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 54 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 48 26 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 26 48 27 47 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 51 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 16 53 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 47 21 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 22 52 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 22 52 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 25 54 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 24 53 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 12 53 15 35 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 10 56 15 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 9 58 16 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 16 57 18 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 20 58 18 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 16 57 19 36 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 16 61 21 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 60 23 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 16 62 21 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 19 59 23 41 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 15 61 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 16 63 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 61 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 22 64 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 20 65 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...24
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