674
FXUS65 KABQ 212320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 419 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- LOW ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN
CHRISTMAS EVE OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND POTENTIALLY
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT IN AREAS ABOVE 9,000 FEET.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
THERE ARE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THRU TUESDAY. THE
MAIN STORY IS STILL WIDESPREAD RECORD WARM TEMPS AS A 588DM H5 RIDGE
SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MX (+2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS). A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL CROSS NORTHERN NM TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGER WEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS THRU MONDAY. NBM AND REFS 50TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS AVERAGE
20 TO 30 MPH. THESE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD RECORD
MAX TEMPS FOR EASTERN NM MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE
SAME BUT WITH LESS WIND AND MORE RECORD WARMTH AREAWIDE.
SNOWPACK HAS BEEN DECIMATED BY THIS EXTENDED WARM STRETCH. NOHRSC
SNOW DEPTH MAPS AND SNOTEL DATA VALUES OVER NORTHERN NM INDICATE
NEAR-ZERO SNOW-WATER EQUIVALENT AT MOST SITES BETWEEN 8,000 AND
9,000 FT. THE BETTER SNOWPACK IS ABOVE 10,000 FT BUT STILL CLOSER
TO 25% OF NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WILL ENTER WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY WHILE
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TO BETWEEN +3 AND +4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO THRU CHRISTMAS
DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TRENDING TOWARD HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN CHRISTMAS EVE THRU CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. NBM MEDIAN QPF AVERAGES 0.10 TO 0.25" ON SOUTHWEST-FACING
SLOPES AND THE NEARBY LOWER TERRAIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY IN THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS RANGES WHERE OROGRAPHICS ASSIST LIFT.
ONCE HI-RES MODELS GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD THE AMOUNTS ARE MORE
THAN LIKELY TO INCREASE. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF VALUES EXCEED 1"
IN THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS RANGES. IT IS STILL REALLY WARM WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 9,500 FT THRU CHRISTMAS
DAY BEFORE FALLING CLOSER TO 8,500 FT CHRISTMAS NIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NM
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES DRAMATIC SPREAD WITH
VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY THRU NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 419 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS FAVORING SOME NORTHERN
AREAS OVERNIGHT AND WESTERN AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WEST AND SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS COME LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME LLWS JUST BELOW CRITERIA (35 KTS) AT KTCC
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2025
RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
WITH WEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND
NORTHEAST NM THRU MONDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPS AND MIN HUMIDITY BETWEEN
10 AND 15% WILL BE COMMON. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND WARM BUT
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEEP TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WETTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN CHRISTMAS EVE THRU CHRISTMAS NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE 9,500 FEET THRU CHRISTMAS THEN FALL TO NEAR
8,500 FEET LATE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN
POOR WITH POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER EASTERN NM THRU
WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 33 62 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 62 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 65 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 65 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 27 68 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 68 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 65 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 73 29 71 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 33 77 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 56 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 59 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 59 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 54 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 57 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 28 62 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 36 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 30 66 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 61 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 38 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 30 67 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 37 67 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 67 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 36 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 32 67 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 40 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 37 65 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 36 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 61 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 33 66 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 67 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 63 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 70 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 36 68 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 31 71 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 72 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 77 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 36 73 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 37 79 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 74 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 80 36 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 76 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 78 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 33 75 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 41 79 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 40 79 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71
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