925
FXUS65 KABQ 042021
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
221 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS ON AND DOWNSTREAM
OF BURN SCARS, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA, WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST RISK.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL THREATEN STRONG AND
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING, AND RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND AND SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA MEXICO. THIS RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING BETWEEN THE BREAKS IN
THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5 TO 0.6 INCHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM INCREASING TO AROUND 1 TO 1.2 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL NM, HAS NOW RESULTED IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN
RANGES, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS, AND FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO BEING IN THE
DEFORMATION ZONE UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING.
NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NM WILL BE THE DRIEST AND HOTTEST
PART OF THE STATE DUE TO IT'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN AZ. MILD WITH LINGERING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND SONORA MEXICO TODAY
GRADUALLY SLIDES EAST TO OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
FRIDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 0.70) ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL RESULT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH A SLOW DRIFT SOUTH INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL LOOK TO BE ANCHORED ALONG THE RIDGELINE OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTH FORK AND SALT BURN SCARS
SURROUNDING RUIDOSO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ZONE DURING THIS TIME BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES COME THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID OVER THE NAVAJO NATION
AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NM NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE WEAK UPPER LOW MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM MOVES OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE
IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND 0.7 TO 1.1 INCHES) COMBINED WITH DEFORMATION
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER FAR WESTERN NM AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY
HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO FRIDAY AREAWIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR OF PWATS BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.6
INCHES IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE.
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC COAST. LONG TERM
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GUIDANCE VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS TROUGH DIGS
BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK. A SHALLOWER TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE
WITH SOME HIGHER MOISTURE DUE TO RETURN FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. A
DEEPER TROUGH/UPPER LOW WILL HELP PULL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE STATE RESULTING IN SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FAVORING
THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLY
HOT DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS, THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TAPERING OFF AND BECOMING MORE SHOWERY MID EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 45 KTS AND SMALL HAIL. LIGHT WINDS
WITH LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN, CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
A STRAY TO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH WETTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. DRIER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ON SATURDAY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY
WEST WINDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO COMBINED WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRIER WESTERLY
WINDS AND HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 94 57 94 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 89 45 89 / 0 5 0 20
CUBA............................ 51 86 52 85 / 5 10 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 48 90 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 50 85 51 85 / 5 5 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 51 89 51 89 / 5 5 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 52 86 54 86 / 10 5 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 84 57 85 / 5 10 10 20
DATIL........................... 52 83 53 84 / 5 10 20 5
RESERVE......................... 47 91 49 91 / 10 10 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 50 95 50 95 / 5 20 10 0
CHAMA........................... 42 82 43 81 / 5 20 0 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 84 57 82 / 5 10 5 40
PECOS........................... 49 84 49 82 / 5 40 0 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 83 50 81 / 5 20 0 40
RED RIVER....................... 42 74 42 73 / 5 20 0 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 78 42 76 / 5 30 5 70
TAOS............................ 48 85 48 83 / 5 20 5 30
MORA............................ 48 82 49 79 / 5 30 5 70
ESPANOLA........................ 54 92 56 90 / 5 10 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 55 84 55 83 / 5 20 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 87 54 86 / 5 10 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 90 63 90 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 91 59 91 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 94 59 94 / 5 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10
BELEN........................... 57 93 58 93 / 5 10 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 93 56 93 / 5 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 61 94 61 94 / 5 10 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 93 58 93 / 5 10 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 89 61 88 / 5 10 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 93 61 93 / 5 10 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 62 93 62 94 / 5 5 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 56 85 55 84 / 5 20 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 55 86 55 85 / 5 20 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 86 53 86 / 5 30 5 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 87 49 86 / 5 30 0 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 82 51 81 / 10 40 10 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 84 51 85 / 5 50 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 82 52 83 / 5 40 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 82 58 84 / 0 50 40 5
RUIDOSO......................... 53 76 54 77 / 0 60 40 50
CAPULIN......................... 48 82 48 78 / 10 20 5 30
RATON........................... 48 87 50 84 / 10 20 5 50
SPRINGER........................ 50 86 50 83 / 5 30 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 83 51 80 / 5 30 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 56 87 56 83 / 10 10 10 5
ROY............................. 52 84 52 81 / 10 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 58 90 58 87 / 10 10 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 87 55 84 / 10 10 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 90 59 87 / 5 10 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 87 58 84 / 5 10 20 20
PORTALES........................ 59 87 58 84 / 5 10 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 87 57 86 / 5 5 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 60 87 60 88 / 5 0 20 10
PICACHO......................... 55 84 55 84 / 0 20 20 20
ELK............................. 53 81 53 83 / 10 40 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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