434
FXUS65 KABQ 221927
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
127 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER EASTERN
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, THEN OVER CENTRAL
AREAS FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL CREATE RISES
ON TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN
AND ANIMAS. RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOCAL, STEERING A SLUG OF
RICH PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO AZ AND NM. THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.08", WHICH IS ANOTHER CALENDAR DAY
RECORD AND SUPPORTIVE OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW, ALTHOUGH FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL
BE EVALUATING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR RUIDOSO AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT, A NOTABLE SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THEN SHIFT EAST
AND FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL NM FRIDAY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR FAR WESTERN NM THROUGH 9PM MDT THIS EVENING, WHERE THERE IS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN CONCERT WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-50KTS AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER, TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED-OUT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TREND UP IN CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY
RELATIVE TO TODAY AND THE SPC HAS UPGRADED THE MARGINAL RISK TO A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK,
WHICH INCLUDES THE ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE METROS. THE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH OVER SOCORRO
COUNTY ON FRIDAY, WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH
2000J/KG. A JET MAXIMA DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING A 2ND UPPER LOW, FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOCAL AND INTO SOUTHWEST AZ FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT WIDESPREAD
FORCING BACK TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A
FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, ALTHOUGH MODELED INSTABILITY
IS UNIMPRESSIVE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS TRENDING EVEN WETTER ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM DUE TO THE SLOW SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
2ND UPPER LOW ACROSS AZ, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS LATE SUNDAY. THE LATEST NAM IS NOTABLY SLOWER TO LIFT
THE UPPER LOW OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL AZ, SO UNLIKE THE GFS IT
ALLOWS A BACKDOOR FRONT TO SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM LATE SATURDAY,
WHICH HELPS TO FORCE MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH PWATS AND INSTABILITY TREND
DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND RELATIVE TO TODAY/FRIDAY, AND SO SHOULD THE
FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER, WE STILL MAY NEED A WATCH FOR THE RUIDOSO
AREA FOR SAT/SUN DUE TO BURN SCAR SENSITIVITY AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND
INTERACTION WITH A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND BE BELOW AVERAGE
AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT EAST OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BRINGING SOME DRYING TO MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT PWATS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR A FEW MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME WARMING/DRYING IS FORECAST EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW, BUT THERE IS SOME MODEL
SPREAD OF NOTE. THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS FORECAST TO GET
ACTIVE OVER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING BACK MOISTURE AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NM, IMPACTING KGUP, KFMN, KAEG, KABQ AND KSAF
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS. SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WESTERN NM INTO THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HIGH HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC LOW MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING/DRYING
WILL FOLLOW MON/TUE, BUT THEN A RETURN TO WETTER CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 66 48 63 / 90 20 30 60
DULCE........................... 46 61 41 62 / 90 70 40 70
CUBA............................ 48 62 46 60 / 80 40 40 70
GALLUP.......................... 46 65 42 62 / 90 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 45 64 41 60 / 90 10 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 48 67 44 62 / 80 10 20 50
QUEMADO......................... 47 66 42 63 / 90 10 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 51 67 49 62 / 70 20 40 50
DATIL........................... 47 65 44 60 / 80 10 30 40
RESERVE......................... 50 68 43 64 / 90 20 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 53 72 49 68 / 90 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 44 56 40 57 / 90 70 60 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 63 47 58 / 70 40 70 80
PECOS........................... 47 64 46 58 / 60 50 70 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 62 43 59 / 60 40 60 70
RED RIVER....................... 41 54 38 50 / 60 50 60 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 61 37 54 / 50 40 80 80
TAOS............................ 48 66 43 62 / 60 40 60 70
MORA............................ 45 63 44 55 / 50 40 70 80
ESPANOLA........................ 52 70 49 65 / 60 30 60 70
SANTA FE........................ 50 64 49 60 / 60 40 70 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 67 48 62 / 60 40 60 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 70 52 66 / 50 30 60 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 71 52 67 / 50 20 50 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 72 52 69 / 60 20 50 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 70 53 67 / 60 30 60 60
BELEN........................... 55 73 52 69 / 50 20 50 50
BERNALILLO...................... 54 72 52 68 / 60 30 70 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 73 51 69 / 50 20 50 50
CORRALES........................ 54 71 52 68 / 60 30 60 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 72 52 69 / 60 20 50 50
PLACITAS........................ 54 69 51 65 / 60 40 70 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 70 52 67 / 60 30 60 60
SOCORRO......................... 56 75 53 69 / 50 20 60 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 66 48 61 / 50 40 60 70
TIJERAS......................... 52 68 49 63 / 50 30 60 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 69 47 63 / 50 40 60 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 71 47 64 / 40 30 60 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 66 48 59 / 40 40 70 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 68 47 63 / 40 20 70 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 68 48 63 / 30 30 70 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 71 52 67 / 20 30 60 70
RUIDOSO......................... 50 66 49 61 / 20 50 80 70
CAPULIN......................... 48 66 48 55 / 10 30 50 80
RATON........................... 47 70 48 59 / 20 30 60 80
SPRINGER........................ 49 71 49 60 / 20 30 60 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 64 48 56 / 40 50 80 80
CLAYTON......................... 54 72 54 62 / 5 10 40 80
ROY............................. 50 66 51 59 / 10 30 70 80
CONCHAS......................... 56 74 56 66 / 10 40 70 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 71 56 63 / 10 40 60 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 76 57 68 / 5 30 50 80
CLOVIS.......................... 55 75 56 69 / 5 20 30 70
PORTALES........................ 55 77 57 70 / 5 20 30 70
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 75 57 68 / 5 30 60 80
ROSWELL......................... 58 79 59 71 / 5 20 40 80
PICACHO......................... 53 74 54 65 / 20 40 80 70
ELK............................. 52 73 51 65 / 10 40 80 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ201>210-241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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