018
FXUS65 KABQ 131822
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1222 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A RATHER MEAGER CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. STORMS WILL FAVOR FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AS WELL AS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR THAT HAS ROUNDED
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SQUASH PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS
TODAY. THOUGH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, A FEW CAMS SUGGEST THAT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE DRY AIR HASN'T
REACHED.
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THESE WILL MAINLY
BE SMALL, SHORT-LIVED STORMS SPECKLING THE RADAR, NOT UNLIKE WHAT
OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN NM YESTERDAY. CAMS DO SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER
OF STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THAT MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST, HOWEVER. OVERALL, GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS NOW PROGGED FOR WED/THU.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COMPACT DISTURBANCE SHIFTING WESTWARD NEAR
THE KS/OK BORDER SOUTH THE MAIN UPPER HIGH ON TUESDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY
CROSS NM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP ERODE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR, AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB INTO THE 0.85-1.25 INCH
RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER LOW IS
STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SLIDE NORTHWESTWARD
WED/THU, WITH THE CENTER APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM
BY LATE THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW THAT
WILL LIMIT STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM PERHAPS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY,
BUT MORESO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BOTH WED/THU. GIVEN PRETTY STRONG 700-500
LAPSE RATES, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, SOME STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE OR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. MOST STORMS LOOK TO BE WEST OF THE RUIDOSO BURN
SCARS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON
THURSDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHERE THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE TENDING TO KEEP
IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN THEY WERE YESTERDAY, OWING TO THE
STRONGER UPPER HIGH NEAR THE UT/CO/WY BORDER. NONETHELESS, PWATS
WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD 1
TO 1.5 INCH PWATS ACROSS NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST DAILY, BUT THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT BECOME LESS ABUNDANT AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST ADIABATIC. THUS, WE
MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.
STAY TUNED, AS THIS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. STORMS
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS TO 35KT AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN MVFR VSBYS ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS TODAY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD LINGER
OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING AROUND KROW. THERE ALSO IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, INCLUDING KROW,
OVERNIGHT. IF THESE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD ERODE BY LATE
MORNING TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. RATHER, DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING AND
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. STORMS WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MOST DAYS,
BUT ALL AREAS WILL BE IN PLAY FRI/SAT. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST TODAY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH, AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 94 64 92 / 20 30 30 40
DULCE........................... 53 90 52 86 / 20 40 40 70
CUBA............................ 58 86 57 82 / 20 40 30 60
GALLUP.......................... 60 89 58 87 / 5 40 40 60
EL MORRO........................ 58 83 57 81 / 5 40 30 80
GRANTS.......................... 59 87 57 84 / 0 30 30 60
QUEMADO......................... 58 86 58 82 / 10 30 20 80
MAGDALENA....................... 63 85 62 81 / 5 5 20 50
DATIL........................... 58 83 58 79 / 5 20 20 70
RESERVE......................... 55 89 55 85 / 20 30 30 80
GLENWOOD........................ 56 90 56 88 / 40 50 40 80
CHAMA........................... 50 83 49 79 / 30 30 40 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 82 62 78 / 5 30 20 60
PECOS........................... 54 83 54 79 / 10 60 20 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 83 54 79 / 10 50 20 60
RED RIVER....................... 46 73 46 69 / 10 50 20 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 76 41 73 / 10 40 20 70
TAOS............................ 54 85 53 81 / 10 40 20 60
MORA............................ 51 78 51 73 / 5 40 30 80
ESPANOLA........................ 63 91 61 87 / 5 30 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 60 84 60 80 / 5 60 30 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 87 58 83 / 5 40 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 91 63 86 / 0 30 20 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 92 67 87 / 0 20 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 93 65 89 / 0 20 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 92 66 88 / 5 20 20 40
BELEN........................... 63 95 63 90 / 0 10 10 40
BERNALILLO...................... 66 93 65 89 / 5 20 20 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 93 62 88 / 0 10 20 50
CORRALES........................ 66 93 65 89 / 5 20 20 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 93 63 89 / 0 10 10 40
PLACITAS........................ 67 88 66 84 / 5 30 20 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 92 66 88 / 5 20 20 40
SOCORRO......................... 69 95 68 91 / 5 5 10 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 85 60 80 / 0 40 30 60
TIJERAS......................... 59 87 60 82 / 0 30 20 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 85 58 81 / 0 30 20 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 87 54 83 / 0 20 20 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 82 55 78 / 5 20 20 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 86 58 82 / 0 10 10 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 85 58 81 / 0 5 10 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 88 63 84 / 5 10 10 40
RUIDOSO......................... 56 79 55 75 / 10 10 10 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 81 54 78 / 0 10 10 20
RATON........................... 55 86 54 83 / 0 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 87 55 83 / 0 20 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 81 54 78 / 10 20 20 70
CLAYTON......................... 61 88 60 86 / 0 0 5 10
ROY............................. 59 83 58 80 / 5 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 64 91 63 89 / 0 5 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 88 62 84 / 0 5 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 92 63 90 / 0 5 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 62 89 62 86 / 5 5 5 10
PORTALES........................ 63 91 62 90 / 5 10 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 91 64 88 / 5 5 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 92 66 88 / 20 10 5 20
PICACHO......................... 61 86 60 82 / 20 10 20 30
ELK............................. 57 81 56 78 / 30 20 20 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page