404
FXUS65 KABQ 251149 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
WITH STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, MORE-SO
WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS
DISTURBANCES CLIP NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTER
OF THE ~ 597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SETTING DAILY
MAXIMUM 500 MB HEIGHT RECORDS OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO DRIFT
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD REACHING NM'S SOUTHWEST BORDER WITH
AZ BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING THERE THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE
GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INCREASING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEHIND MOIST BACKDOOR FRONTS AIDED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS. AS A RESULT, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD WILL BE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MANY PLACES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD AFTER TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
SPREAD GULF MOISTURE THERE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASED
SHEAR WITH THE DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE
SOME STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO TURN
SEVERE BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER, PWATS
NEAR AND ABOVE 1.20" OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY, NEAR AND ABOVE
1.30" WEDNESDAY, AND NEAR AND ABOVE 1.10" THURSDAY WILL ENABLE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES THE THREE DAY TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL REACH OVER 3" IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND OVER 2" ON PARTS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB AROUND 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES
EACH AFTERNOON; EXCEPT FOR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE
WILL EQUATE TO RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD READINGS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY, THEN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL TREND
DOWNWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH DECREASES AND AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. STORM COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, ENABLING A
MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SET UP. MODELS VARY
ON HOW WELL THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE WEST COAST.
OTHERWISE, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME, WHILE EASTERN READINGS
CLIMB AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS CELLS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS
MARCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS, WHICH MAY
REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT ALTERATION OF FLIGHT ROUTES TO GET AROUND.
SOME STORMS WILL PROBABLY TURN SEVERE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER
WEST, A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS AND VIRGA SHOWERS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. STORM MOTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST AROUND 10-20 KT, EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MOST STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-30 KT. FINALLY, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE DENSITY ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY, THEN TO A LESSER EXTENT
CENTRAL AND WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HELP OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS FROM THE EASTERN STORMS. SOME LOCALLY STRONG
GAP WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM THE EAST EACH EVENING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL
BETTER GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES, WETTING FOOTPRINTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE PRETTY SMALL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TODAY, AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BESIDES THE RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS OVER WESTERN AREAS, THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 95 63 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 90 50 91 50 / 10 10 20 10
CUBA............................ 90 59 90 58 / 20 10 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 91 55 91 55 / 10 10 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 87 57 87 55 / 20 20 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 91 56 90 57 / 20 10 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 89 58 / 20 10 30 10
MAGDALENA....................... 90 64 89 63 / 10 10 30 30
DATIL........................... 87 59 87 59 / 20 10 30 20
RESERVE......................... 95 59 96 59 / 10 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 98 64 100 64 / 10 5 20 5
CHAMA........................... 84 50 83 50 / 30 10 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 63 84 59 / 40 10 60 60
PECOS........................... 90 58 87 55 / 20 10 50 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 54 83 53 / 40 30 60 50
RED RIVER....................... 75 46 73 45 / 40 40 70 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 82 39 77 39 / 30 30 80 50
TAOS............................ 89 53 86 51 / 20 20 50 40
MORA............................ 85 53 81 51 / 40 20 80 70
ESPANOLA........................ 94 62 93 60 / 20 10 40 50
SANTA FE........................ 90 62 87 60 / 10 10 40 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 60 90 58 / 10 10 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 67 94 65 / 10 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 69 95 67 / 10 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 67 97 65 / 10 5 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 68 96 66 / 10 10 20 50
BELEN........................... 100 67 97 64 / 10 5 20 50
BERNALILLO...................... 98 68 97 66 / 10 10 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 65 97 63 / 10 5 20 50
CORRALES........................ 99 68 97 66 / 10 10 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 66 97 64 / 10 5 20 50
PLACITAS........................ 94 66 92 63 / 10 10 20 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 68 96 66 / 10 10 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 101 70 99 68 / 5 5 10 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 61 90 59 / 10 10 20 60
TIJERAS......................... 92 63 91 61 / 10 5 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 60 91 57 / 10 10 30 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 58 91 54 / 10 10 30 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 58 86 56 / 10 10 50 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 60 91 57 / 10 10 20 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 91 58 / 10 10 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 96 68 95 65 / 5 5 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 89 60 85 58 / 20 5 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 87 54 81 53 / 60 50 80 60
RATON........................... 90 54 84 53 / 50 50 80 60
SPRINGER........................ 92 54 86 53 / 40 30 80 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 56 84 54 / 30 20 80 60
CLAYTON......................... 94 61 86 60 / 60 50 30 60
ROY............................. 92 59 86 58 / 50 50 60 60
CONCHAS......................... 99 65 93 64 / 30 40 40 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 98 64 91 62 / 20 20 30 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 65 93 64 / 20 50 20 60
CLOVIS.......................... 100 66 95 65 / 20 30 30 60
PORTALES........................ 102 67 97 65 / 20 20 20 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 67 96 65 / 20 20 20 70
ROSWELL......................... 105 71 100 69 / 10 5 10 30
PICACHO......................... 98 65 95 63 / 10 5 20 40
ELK............................. 95 63 92 60 / 10 5 40 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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