190
FXUS65 KABQ 162359 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, WET MICROBURSTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
A MUCH MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN CA COAST, AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. THIS IS STEERING A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM WHERE PWATS ARE STILL
EXHIBITING VALUES IN THE 97TH-100TH PERCENTILE AT 1.0 TO 1.3
INCHES. THERE WERE CONCERNS ABOUT STABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT,
SO FAR THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE HAS HAD ENOUGH
POCKETS OF INSOLATION FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION, AND PORTIONS OF
THE GILA AND SAN MATEO MOUNTAINS ARE ALSO QUICKLY DESTABILIZING.
REMNANT SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN FROM NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY ARE
FOUND BETWEEN THESE AREAS AND ALSO OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE
IT MAY TAKE LONGER TO DESTABILIZE. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED
FOR TODAY INTO THE FRIJOLES BURN SCAR AREA, BUT THERE ARE
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THIS LOCALIZED AREA BEING IMPACTED AGAIN.
THE CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS IS FOR PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF NM OVERNIGHT WITH A CONCENTRATION MORE IN THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION
BACK TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM OR SHOWERY NATURE, RAINFALL RATES
APPEAR TO REMAIN HIGH OVERNIGHT, MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING WHEN A
QUICK 1.0 TO 2.4 INCHES FELL WITHIN 60-120 MINUTES IN RUIDOSO
PROPER, SHOWING THE MORE TROPICAL NATURE OF CLOUD DROPLET
DISTRIBUTIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AND THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER.
THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL TURN FROM DUE SOUTH-TO-NORTH TO MORE
OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTH NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PWATS IS EXPECTED
INTO THURSDAY, KEEPING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FAVORED
FOR NEW STORM INITIATION BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN, BUT THE MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THIS WILL HAPPEN WITH FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY QPF
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SHOWN IN THE HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN.
AGAIN, CAMS HAVE BEEN QUITE NOISY AND STRUGGLING TO PINPOINT THE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, BUT WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH, BUT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR TRAINING CELLS AND A FEW UPDRAFTS ANCHORING OR BACK-
BUILDING ON SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES. STORMS LOOK TO HAVE
A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY, AND
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THERE, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
80'S AND 90'S (3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) WHILE AREAS FARTHER
WEST REMAIN NEAR OR CLOSER TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN ID WHILE THE
HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE A SUBTLE
VEERING IN THE WINDS ALOFT, INTRODUCING DRIER AIR INTO FAR WESTERN
NM WHILE PUSHING THE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE
INTERIOR HIGH TERRAIN OF THE STATE. PWATS WOULD LIKELY REDUCE A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO IN CENTRAL AREAS, BUT WOULD STILL HOVER
AROUND 1.0 INCH OR SLIGHTLY MORE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT FEWER, BUT
STILL NUMEROUS EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH LESS QPF AND LOWER SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS ON FRIDAY, SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHICH SOLUTIONS
GET FAVORED WITH TONIGHT'S CAM RUNS. STORMS WOULD BE MORE
INCLINED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, GIVEN THE VEERING STEERING FLOW,
BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE OK AND TX BORDERS.
MORE DRY AIR SPILLS INTO NM FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SHIFTS TOWARD WESTERN WY. WHILE THE
INCOMING DRY AIR COULD REDUCE THE OVERALL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, THE DRY-MOIST DEMARCATION THAT WILL
PRECEDE THE TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS) COULD
PROVE TO BE A FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. DEEPER
MOISTURE HOLDING ON IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALSO FUEL SCATTERED STORMS THERE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS AND WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL STEER A MORE DUE
WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT INTO NM WITH CONTINUED DRYING. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, PWATS LOWER ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS MOST STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY STARTED TO REDUCE
ADVERTISED POPS. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WILL BE A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT
MAY JUST BARELY REACH UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NM. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE INVASION OF THIS FRONT FOR SUNDAY, SO LOW
20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THE FRONT WILL ENTER MORE OF NORTHEASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT APPEARS TO LARGELY WASH OUT BY MONDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING MOSTLY SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, BY
THIS TIME A NEW PACIFIC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF NM.
THIS LOW COULD BEGIN TO DRAW A MOIST EAST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW INTO NM MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS MOISTURE GETTING SYNCED UP
WITH ANOTHER MONSOON PLUME TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN RAINFALL AND PERHAPS STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MORNING FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WESTWARD. FARTHER EAST, STORMS WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS WITH
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 KT, EXCEPT FOR SPEEDS
UP TO 35 KT OVER WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET
MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT, AS WELL AS SMALL
HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WILL KEEP A WET PATTERN INTACT FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WHILE A FEW STRAY STORMS WILL WANDER INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS, THEIR PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL SOAKING
RAINFALL ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FARTHER WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR IN SEVERAL SPOTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
BRINGING MUCH NEEDED FUEL MOISTURE, BUT ALSO POSING RUNOFF AND
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR SOME, ESPECIALLY NEAR RECENT WILDFIRE
BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED NEAR TO ABOUT 8 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NM, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BEFORE READINGS MODIFY CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY HAS TRENDED UP WITH MUCH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS, AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REACH 80 TO 100% IN MOST
AREAS EACH MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DRIER AIR
WILL SLOW STORM PRODUCTION AND REDUCE RAINFALL CHANCES JUST
SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY AND MORE-SO INTO SATURDAY WITH VERY MINIMAL
STORM ACTIVITY FORECAST BY SUNDAY. STORMS WILL START TO REAPPEAR
IN NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NM BY MONDAY AND COULD QUICKLY
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 75 56 80 / 90 90 60 40
DULCE........................... 48 73 45 76 / 90 90 90 60
CUBA............................ 52 73 50 74 / 90 80 80 70
GALLUP.......................... 52 73 48 78 / 90 70 50 30
EL MORRO........................ 51 73 48 75 / 90 60 60 70
GRANTS.......................... 53 76 50 78 / 90 80 70 70
QUEMADO......................... 55 76 53 78 / 90 50 60 70
MAGDALENA....................... 58 77 57 77 / 80 40 60 70
DATIL........................... 54 74 53 75 / 90 50 60 80
RESERVE......................... 55 78 53 81 / 90 30 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 59 84 58 86 / 90 30 50 50
CHAMA........................... 49 67 47 70 / 90 90 90 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 74 56 75 / 80 70 80 70
PECOS........................... 53 75 53 76 / 90 70 70 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 72 52 73 / 70 60 90 60
RED RIVER....................... 45 64 46 67 / 70 60 80 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 70 39 70 / 70 60 70 50
TAOS............................ 51 76 49 76 / 70 60 80 60
MORA............................ 51 73 50 76 / 80 70 60 60
ESPANOLA........................ 56 81 55 80 / 80 60 80 60
SANTA FE........................ 57 75 56 76 / 80 70 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 78 55 78 / 80 70 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 80 61 80 / 80 50 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 81 62 81 / 80 40 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 82 56 82 / 80 40 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 81 61 81 / 80 50 70 60
BELEN........................... 59 82 59 82 / 80 40 60 60
BERNALILLO...................... 60 81 59 81 / 80 50 70 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 81 56 81 / 80 40 70 60
CORRALES........................ 60 82 60 81 / 80 50 70 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 81 59 81 / 80 40 70 60
PLACITAS........................ 60 79 60 79 / 90 50 70 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 80 60 79 / 80 50 70 60
SOCORRO......................... 62 82 63 84 / 80 20 40 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 77 55 77 / 90 50 70 70
TIJERAS......................... 57 79 58 78 / 90 50 70 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 78 53 78 / 80 50 60 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 80 51 80 / 70 50 60 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 77 54 77 / 80 50 60 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 79 55 79 / 60 40 50 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 80 56 79 / 50 30 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 82 60 82 / 50 40 30 60
RUIDOSO......................... 55 76 53 78 / 70 60 30 80
CAPULIN......................... 55 77 53 79 / 50 30 20 20
RATON........................... 54 80 53 83 / 60 40 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 55 83 55 85 / 60 40 30 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 76 53 78 / 80 60 70 50
CLAYTON......................... 62 86 63 87 / 30 5 10 10
ROY............................. 58 80 59 82 / 70 20 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 63 89 63 90 / 50 10 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 85 62 87 / 60 20 40 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 89 65 91 / 40 5 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 63 89 63 91 / 20 0 10 20
PORTALES........................ 63 90 64 92 / 20 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 89 64 90 / 60 0 20 40
ROSWELL......................... 66 92 66 93 / 30 0 10 20
PICACHO......................... 59 85 60 86 / 50 30 30 80
ELK............................. 57 82 58 83 / 60 30 30 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ201>209-214-217-226-241.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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