149
FXUS65 KABQ 221734
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS THROUGH LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS PEAK IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S EACH
DAY. LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THRU
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
IN NORTHEASTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH A PERTURBATION
HAVING GENERATED CONVECTION ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE EARLIER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED STRONG NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONGSIDE A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN NM THIS HOUR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ADVANCE SOUTH AND WESTWARD THRU EASTERN NM LIKE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEAR OR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING. A BANK OF LOW STRATUS ALREADY FORMING
THRU FAR NORTHEASTERN NM WILL LIKELY EXPAND TO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
PERHAPS EVEN TO THE ESTANCIA BASIN. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 8F TO 12F THRU EASTERN NM BACK INTO
THE 80S AND 90S. MUCH DRIER WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THRU WESTERN NM
AND ACT TO MIX OUT THE COOLER AIR AND HIGHER HUMIDITY HAVING SPILLED
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW
FAR DRIER AND HOTTER AIR WILL MIX BACK INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS FROM MORIARTY TO ROSWELL, IN TURN AFFECTING
HOW HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND IN THOSE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH,
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE CO FRONT RANGE SOUTHEASTWARD HAVING A
MINOR CHANCE OF CLIPPING FAR NORTHEASTERN NM THIS EVENING.
HAVING BEEN PUSHED BACK EAST A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, THE COOLER AIR
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PUSH BACK WEST AND THRU
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRIER WESTERLIES ROUNDING THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 598DM H5 MONSOON HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN
NM WILL MIX OUT AND PUSH THIS MOISTURE BACK TOWARD TX TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE H5 HIGH THRU AZ AND INTO WESTERN NM WILL YIELD A FEW SPOT
VIRGA SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
LITTLE TO NO ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS, DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLIES, AND BUILDING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM. MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE LOW
100S. HEAT ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY AGAIN FOR ROSWELL, AND MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR SOCORRO AND TUCUMCARI WHERE HIGHS GET CLOSE TO
105F. ASIDE FROM THE HEAT AND VIRGA SHOWERS, THERE IS A MINOR RISK
OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE CO FRONT
RANGE CLIPPING FAR NORTHEASTERN NM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
WEDNESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH MORE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM ALONG THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS RESULTING VIRGA AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH
AS ANOTHER WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CO WILL PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NM. CURRENT ODDS ON FAVOR ARE FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS COMPARED TO THEIR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN BRETHREN. DRY
LIGHTNING AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS FUELED BY
1000 - 1400 J/KG OF DCAPE AMIDST INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY OF THE VIRGA OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEE SIMILAR THREATS
OF STRONG ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TREKKING WESTWARD THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY, LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL FALL ALONGSIDE
THESE STORMS.
THE WEEKEND SEES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSE OFF TO A LOW OVER THE
PACNW. THIS BRINGS INCREASING WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BACK
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SHUTTING DOWN WHAT LITTLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THERE WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORM
THREAT EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S/80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH 90S TO LOW 100S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, CREEPING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 100S NEAR ROSWELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
PATCHY MVFR CIGS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE. GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN EASTERN NM WILL TREND
LIGHTER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THESE WINDS TAPER OFF, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (<15 KTS) AROUND THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT.
WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) THAT MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE
(30-50%) ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKE FEATURE WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY THRU EASTERN NM THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR SUNRISE. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF INCREASED
MINRH RECOVERY TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE DRIER WESTERLIES MIX
BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY SEES A MONSOON HIGH BUILD OVER
SOUTHERN NM BRINGING UP SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. THIS WILL YIELD SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF THREATENING STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
ALONGSIDE DRY LIGHTNING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THIS THREAT WILL TRY TO SPREAD TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FAR EAST WILL LIKELY BE MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND WILL THREATEN A FIRE GROWING PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE.
ALL THE WHILE, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH 90S TO
LOW 100S FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN NM
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 54 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 93 44 93 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 53 92 57 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 91 48 94 55 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 89 52 91 56 / 0 0 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 95 51 96 56 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 91 54 92 58 / 0 0 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 93 63 94 65 / 0 0 10 0
DATIL........................... 91 58 91 61 / 0 0 20 10
RESERVE......................... 99 51 99 54 / 0 0 20 5
GLENWOOD........................ 101 57 104 61 / 0 0 10 0
CHAMA........................... 86 45 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 91 61 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 88 53 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 53 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 78 45 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 40 85 43 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 91 50 93 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 85 50 91 54 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 98 56 99 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 91 58 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 55 96 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 66 99 70 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 63 100 66 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 61 102 65 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 62 101 66 / 0 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 100 59 102 64 / 0 0 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 99 61 101 65 / 0 0 5 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 58 101 63 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 100 61 102 65 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 59 102 63 / 0 0 5 5
PLACITAS........................ 95 63 97 67 / 0 0 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 62 101 66 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 103 69 105 72 / 0 0 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 60 94 64 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 93 60 95 64 / 0 0 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 55 97 61 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 51 98 57 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 54 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 56 97 61 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 57 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 98 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 87 60 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 80 53 92 53 / 20 10 5 10
RATON........................... 85 53 97 54 / 20 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 87 54 98 56 / 20 5 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 54 95 57 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 86 60 97 60 / 40 10 20 20
ROY............................. 85 58 95 58 / 10 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 92 63 104 64 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 91 62 100 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 64 103 67 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 90 65 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 91 65 104 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 65 102 67 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 99 68 106 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 91 63 100 66 / 0 0 10 0
ELK............................. 88 60 99 63 / 0 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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