866
FXUS65 KABQ 191128
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
528 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL FOCUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND MONDAY, THEN
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY MOIST PWATS AROUND 1-1.4" WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CO/WY BORDER
AND ALSO ON THE TX/LA COAST TODAY, WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM, WHERE IT WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION SOME
TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
AND BUILD OVER CO MONDAY, THEN DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OK
TUESDAY, WHILE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM,
THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. THUS, AFTER TODAY,
CONVECTION WILL BE SHUT DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHILE
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. WITH PWATS BEING SO HIGH, AND A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY. WILL
CONTINUE THE ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EXTREMELY
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 7 DEGREES BELOW
1991-2020 AVERAGES TODAY, THEN GENERALLY TREND A LITTLE WARMER
WITH EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER CO, THEN OK.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THERE WILL BE A DOWNTICK IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
BROAD 598 DAM UPPER HIGH OVER OK, AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES WESTWARD NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE BIT OF AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER AND A MOIST
BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE. THAT
SAME DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY MAKE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM
THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
RECENTERS MORE SQUARELY OVER THE STATE.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY MOVING OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY TREND WARMER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING THURSDAY, AND AROUND
100 IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY STARTING FRIDAY, CREATING MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEAT RISK FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY WESTWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
SPOTTIER ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10-20KTS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WET MICROBURSTS WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WITH SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE STRONG AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DROP NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
AND ALSO IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 64 95 65 / 10 10 10 60
DULCE........................... 90 53 92 53 / 10 10 20 30
CUBA............................ 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 85 57 88 56 / 50 30 40 70
EL MORRO........................ 80 56 83 56 / 60 30 70 60
GRANTS.......................... 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 81 57 82 57 / 70 40 70 60
MAGDALENA....................... 83 62 85 62 / 40 20 30 30
DATIL........................... 80 57 81 58 / 60 20 60 50
RESERVE......................... 87 55 86 55 / 80 40 80 60
GLENWOOD........................ 89 56 89 57 / 70 40 90 60
CHAMA........................... 83 51 86 52 / 10 10 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 65 87 64 / 10 5 10 10
PECOS........................... 84 56 87 57 / 40 10 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 55 87 56 / 10 5 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 47 78 49 / 10 5 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 42 82 45 / 20 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 86 54 89 55 / 10 5 10 10
MORA............................ 81 53 84 55 / 20 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 92 64 94 64 / 10 5 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 84 61 87 62 / 40 20 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 60 90 61 / 30 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 66 92 66 / 40 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 68 93 66 / 30 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 65 94 65 / 20 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 67 93 68 / 20 10 20 20
BELEN........................... 92 64 94 64 / 20 10 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 93 67 95 67 / 30 10 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 62 93 63 / 20 10 20 20
CORRALES........................ 93 67 95 67 / 20 10 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 63 93 64 / 20 10 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 88 66 90 66 / 40 20 30 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 67 94 67 / 20 10 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 93 68 95 68 / 40 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 61 87 61 / 50 10 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 85 61 88 61 / 50 10 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 58 88 58 / 40 10 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 53 89 54 / 30 10 30 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 58 85 57 / 20 10 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 85 58 87 58 / 40 20 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 57 85 58 / 50 20 50 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 84 62 85 63 / 60 20 70 30
RUIDOSO......................... 78 57 79 57 / 70 30 80 30
CAPULIN......................... 84 56 87 57 / 10 5 10 5
RATON........................... 90 56 92 57 / 10 5 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 89 57 93 58 / 10 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 87 57 / 20 10 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 91 65 95 66 / 10 5 0 0
ROY............................. 86 61 89 62 / 20 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 93 65 96 66 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 63 91 64 / 10 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 67 97 67 / 10 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 90 65 93 65 / 10 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 91 65 94 66 / 10 10 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 65 93 66 / 20 10 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 92 68 94 69 / 10 20 5 10
PICACHO......................... 86 62 87 63 / 30 20 20 10
ELK............................. 82 58 83 59 / 60 30 50 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...99
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