941
FXUS65 KABQ 031955
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
155 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN, PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A 592DM H5 RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AZ TODAY WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THRU SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHEARING APART OVER NORTHERN MX WILL HELP TO
DEEPEN EASTERLY FLOW BENEATH THE RIDGE THRU SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT AND ALSO REINFORCE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT. THE LATEST REFS, HREF, AND NBM
GUIDANCE INDICATES PATCHY 5-10% CHANCES OF VISIBILITY <1 MILE WITH
A 10-20% CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE BELOW CANYONS IN THE RGV NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY THEN
SPREAD TO WESTERN NM BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WILL BE COMMON THRU LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTS FOR A
COUPLE SHOWERS AS WELL LATE SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
ARE SIMILAR MODEL PROBABILITIES FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE VERY NICE FOR EARLY OCTOBER WITH READINGS GENERALLY NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE H5 RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO NM
AHEAD OF AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. A 50-60KT
SPEED MAX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN AZ MONDAY THEN INTO WESTERN NM TUESDAY AND SOUTHERN NM BY
WEDNESDAY. GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE BUT CHANCES
ARE STILL VERY LOW. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN WITHIN +/-5F OF NORMAL
WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS.
EXTENDED FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING A
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. TEMPS WILL
STAY NEAR NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN WITH LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY BECOMING
A TAD MORE BREEZY FOR EASTERN NM BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
MVFR LOW CIGS WILL CLEAR SOUTHEAST NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
VFR TAKES OVER THE ENTIRE AIRSPACE THRU LATE TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND SHIFT OVER EASTERN
NM TONIGHT THEN INTO THE RGV AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. PEAK GUSTS OF
15 TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR MORE MVFR
LOW CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
A 5-10% CHANCE OF IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL ERCS.
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY
THRU THURSDAY AS A WEAK AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTS SOUTH
ACROSS NM. TEMPS WILL STAY WITHIN +/-5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THRU LATE
WEEK. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR IN MOST AREAS WITH A
COUPLE POCKETS OF GOOD VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 53 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 77 39 76 41 / 0 0 5 0
CUBA............................ 73 47 70 46 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 46 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 74 46 68 42 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 74 46 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 46 71 42 / 0 0 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 49 68 47 / 0 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 67 45 65 42 / 0 0 5 0
RESERVE......................... 78 45 77 43 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 79 49 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 75 43 70 42 / 0 0 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 50 69 47 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 75 48 70 44 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 45 71 45 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 71 33 68 33 / 0 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 31 66 30 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 75 42 72 42 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 74 46 66 44 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 76 48 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 48 70 46 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 47 72 46 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 54 76 51 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 53 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 50 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 52 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 52 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 51 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 72 52 74 49 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 52 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 72 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 48 67 45 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 72 49 72 46 / 0 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 47 69 44 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 45 70 43 / 0 0 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 48 64 45 / 0 0 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 45 67 43 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 45 67 44 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 49 72 49 / 0 0 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 66 44 63 45 / 0 5 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 74 46 67 46 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 79 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 78 47 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 48 66 44 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 75 53 71 50 / 0 0 5 0
ROY............................. 72 50 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 54 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 51 72 49 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 52 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 74 52 76 51 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 75 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 53 76 52 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 54 78 57 / 0 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 71 49 72 52 / 0 0 10 20
ELK............................. 71 47 71 50 / 0 0 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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