427
FXUS65 KABQ 021112 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
512 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM.
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NM.
- THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE JET STREAM IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM NM AND THE PERSISTENT
TROUGHING PATTERN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS TO INCREASE WITH A WARMING TREND. LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION, THOUGH IN AN ATMOSPHERE WITH
LESS SHEAR THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST NAM IS
ADVERTISING DCAPE OF GREATER THAN 2,500J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS, SO DON'T BE SURPRISED IF
THIS CROP PRODUCES SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL BE EVEN MORE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE FRIDAY. THE CAMS FAVOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR INITIATION, SO THE BURN SCAR FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
NON-ZERO IN RUIDOSO. THAT SAID, CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND
INEFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS SO PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ON/NEAR THE BURN SCARS IN LINCOLN COUNTY ARE VERY LOW.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND AND PWATS WILL CLIMB, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE A
CONVECTIVELY AIDED BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CREEP WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING PWATS TO CONTINUE A SLOW CLIMB AND
BRINGING INCREASING COVERAGE OF DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION. THE
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KROW IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. SMOKE
FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AIRSPACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT KABQ/KAEG AND KFMN
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR EVEN WITH
SMOKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE JET STREAM IS LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION, WHICH IS
BRINGING AN END TO THE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
FOR THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, A VERY DRY AIRMASS IS SPREADING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY LATER TODAY TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO NORTHEAST NM. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST, BUT
WITH LOWER COVERAGE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. MANY HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING AN END
TO NEAR-CRITICAL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND IMPROVED HUMIDITY. CHANCES FOR
WETTING STORMS WILL TREND UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA
FROM LATE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 53 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 40 89 42 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 87 52 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 44 88 47 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 85 49 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 90 49 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 88 51 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 89 59 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 85 53 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 91 46 94 52 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 95 53 98 58 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 81 42 83 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 60 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 86 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 52 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 81 40 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 34 81 36 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 86 48 88 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 85 51 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 93 55 95 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 86 59 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 60 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 63 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 97 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 95 62 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 96 62 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 59 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 91 63 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 62 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 99 65 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 60 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 51 93 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 54 88 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 62 93 64 / 5 5 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 85 57 86 59 / 20 10 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 53 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 91 51 93 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 93 52 95 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 88 54 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 95 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 91 58 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 99 64 101 64 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 61 96 62 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 67 100 68 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 93 66 96 67 / 20 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 66 97 67 / 20 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 65 98 67 / 10 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 96 68 99 70 / 20 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 60 94 63 / 20 10 10 0
ELK............................. 90 58 91 60 / 30 10 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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