041
FXUS65 KABQ 240900
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
- SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
WITH STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE-TO-HIGH HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEN
SPREAD TO WESTERN AREAS AS WELL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
WITH A 597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTING DAILY MAXIMUM 500 MB
HEIGHT RECORDS OVER THE STATE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND UPWARD MOST PLACES TODAY, THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AGAIN IN
MOST CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY. RECORD AND NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS AS READINGS PEAK
AROUND 5-13 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES. THE NBM, WHICH HAS
DONE A PRETTY GOOD JOB ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS THE LAST TWO DAYS, PREDICTS A HIGH OF 105 F IN
ROSWELL TODAY. WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY THERE FROM 12-8 PM.
THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 103 F IN ROSWELL, AND TUESDAY WILL MAKE
THE FOURTH.
OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ENTIRE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A SERIES OF MOIST BACKDOOR FRONTS ENTERS
THE STATE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AREAS, WHERE WETTING FOOTPRINTS
WILL SHRINK IN SIZE AS HUMIDITIES TREND LOWER. THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPTICK IN NEW LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRE STARTS RECENTLY, AND THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FARTHER EAST, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRONG-TO-SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY OVER NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL AREAS, AND POTENTIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS AS WELL
ON TUESDAY. FURTHER, PWATS NEAR AND ABOVE 1.20" OVER EASTERN AREAS
TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WILL ENABLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES
A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM STORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
CONVECTION FROM STORMS IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY WILL SEND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE ENOUGH FOR INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALSO SINK OVER THE SOUTHWEST NM BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOMEWHAT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE EAST AS WELL WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, WHERE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF SUGGEST A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL.
BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A DOWNTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE ON THURSDAY OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL AREAS.
ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT RAIN INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE
SOME. DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
FLATTENS OUT AND ELONGATES ALONG AND EAST-WEST RIDGE AXIS OVER
SOUTHERN NM. HOWEVER, MODELS DEPICT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER NM SATURDAY, AND ALL THE WAY TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY, ALLOWING BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO TRAVEL NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, DESPITE A FEW TO
5 DEGREES OF COOLING EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
THURSDAY, THEN CONTINUE TO DO SO MOST PLACES THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER WITH THE INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ON MONDAY,
SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PRODUCE A
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
MORNING, THEN THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME STORMS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND AS FAR WEST AS THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN, WILL PROBABLY TURN
SEVERE BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST,
A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AROUND
5-10 KT, EXCEPT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE
MOST STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5-15
KT. FINALLY, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE
DENSITY ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION
OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
TODAY AND TUESDAY, POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL DECREASE OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHILE INCREASING CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS WELL
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION
TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE WEAKENED THE GAP WIND
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY EVENING, BUT SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM
THE EAST. UNTIL MODEST GULF MOISTURE PUSHES INTO WESTERN AREAS
MID-WEEK, THE SIZE OF WETTING FOOTPRINTS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY. BESIDES THE
RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS OVER WESTERN AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK, THE
MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW ALL WEEK LONG.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 95 63 96 62 / 5 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 91 51 91 51 / 10 10 20 5
CUBA............................ 90 59 91 58 / 20 20 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 91 53 91 54 / 20 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 87 55 87 54 / 30 20 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 90 55 91 55 / 20 20 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 87 57 89 57 / 20 10 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 90 64 / 20 10 20 10
DATIL........................... 86 58 87 59 / 20 20 20 10
RESERVE......................... 94 58 96 59 / 10 10 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 99 63 100 64 / 10 5 20 5
CHAMA........................... 84 51 84 51 / 30 20 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 63 86 62 / 40 20 40 30
PECOS........................... 89 59 89 57 / 20 10 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 56 85 54 / 20 30 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 76 46 75 46 / 30 30 50 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 40 80 38 / 40 30 50 40
TAOS............................ 88 55 88 54 / 20 30 30 30
MORA............................ 86 55 85 53 / 30 20 50 40
ESPANOLA........................ 94 62 94 62 / 10 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 89 62 90 61 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 60 92 60 / 10 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 68 96 69 / 5 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 69 97 68 / 5 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 66 99 67 / 5 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 69 97 69 / 5 10 10 20
BELEN........................... 98 65 100 66 / 5 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 98 67 98 67 / 5 10 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 64 99 65 / 5 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 98 68 99 68 / 5 10 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 65 99 66 / 5 5 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 94 66 / 5 10 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 68 98 68 / 5 10 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 100 69 101 69 / 10 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 63 91 62 / 10 10 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 91 64 92 63 / 10 10 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 60 93 60 / 10 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 56 94 56 / 10 10 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 59 90 58 / 20 10 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 60 93 59 / 10 10 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 61 92 60 / 10 5 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 67 97 67 / 5 10 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 88 63 89 60 / 10 10 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 87 56 85 54 / 40 40 60 60
RATON........................... 91 54 89 53 / 40 40 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 93 56 91 54 / 30 30 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 55 87 53 / 30 20 50 40
CLAYTON......................... 97 63 92 62 / 30 50 50 60
ROY............................. 93 61 91 59 / 30 30 40 60
CONCHAS......................... 100 67 98 65 / 20 20 20 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 66 96 64 / 10 20 20 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 68 99 64 / 10 20 20 60
CLOVIS.......................... 102 69 99 66 / 10 10 20 40
PORTALES........................ 103 68 101 66 / 10 10 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 102 69 100 67 / 10 10 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 105 72 104 71 / 5 5 5 5
PICACHO......................... 99 67 98 65 / 5 5 10 5
ELK............................. 96 64 96 62 / 5 5 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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