564
FXUS65 KABQ 172028
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
- HIGH WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SPORADIC AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65
MPH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON AREA HIGHWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THREATENED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WARNING THRU THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND PROBABILISTIC ENVELOPE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY,
GOES DERIVED-WINDS, AND SURFACE OBS SHOW WINDS TRENDING STRONGER
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HOW FAR INTO EASTERN NM
THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP THRU LATER TODAY. THE NBM 25TH-75TH
SPREAD IS HIGHEST BETWEEN 6PM AND 12AM ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM. CONSENSUS IS STRONGER FOR THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS THRU TONIGHT WHERE CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR MT WAVE CRASHING ON THE NEARBY
EAST SLOPES AND HIGHLANDS. GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. A COUPLE SPORADIC AND ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH MAY OCCUR
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH GIVEN THE
GREATER MODEL SPREAD AND <40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS >45 MPH). PERSISTENT
MIXING OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS OF 10 TO
20F ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM.
MAX TEMPS WILL TREND 10 TO 15F COOLER OVER NORTHEAST NM BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL (DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS).
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL
SEE VERY LITTLE IMPACT FROM WINDS OR THE WEAK FRONT THRU THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER INCREASE IN WEST WINDS OVER EASTERN NM
WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED (HIGHS 15 TO 25F ABOVE
NORMAL). WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT STILL
WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING UP TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS EASTERN NM. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS ZONAL WITH GOOD MIXING OF 700-500MB LAYER FLOW IN
THE 35 TO 45KT RANGE.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
HAVE VERY LITTLE RESIDENCE TIME AS A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, HIGHS WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE
FRONT. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WITH MORE BREEZY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME CHANGE TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SHOWN DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF TX WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. ANY NOTEWORTHY
CHANGE TO THE RECENT WARMTH AND DRYNESS MAY OCCUR BY LATE NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING STRENGTHENING MT WAVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE SURFACE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. LLWS AND TURBULENCE WILL BECOME MORE COMMON AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES WITH SPORADIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 60KT POSSIBLE FROM
NEAR KAXX TO KRTN, KLVS, AND KCQC. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM,
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT GUSTS EXCEED 35KT AT TIMES TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST NM
WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL
HELP TO COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST AND LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN
RH. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY BUT REMAIN WEAKER THAN
OBSERVED TODAY. MIN RH WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY. NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE
BREEZY WINDS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MIN RH IN THE 10 TO 15%
RANGE OVER EASTERN NM. VENTILATION WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO
GOOD WITH THE HIGHER RATES MAINLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
NM AND PARTS OF WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 29 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 53 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 29 53 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 58 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 56 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 26 60 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 58 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 61 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 58 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 69 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 31 73 32 77 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 22 47 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 53 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 50 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 21 47 18 51 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 48 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 25 53 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 34 55 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 32 60 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 35 55 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 59 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 64 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 36 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 30 63 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 36 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 63 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 36 63 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 63 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 38 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 36 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 38 66 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 55 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 35 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 59 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 59 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 58 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 59 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 63 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 41 60 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 50 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 55 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 57 27 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 54 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 34 52 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 52 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 36 60 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 61 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 59 34 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 39 59 33 74 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 62 34 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 63 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 37 71 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 43 69 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 39 70 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
NMZ221-227-230>232.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ214-215.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR NMZ212-223-228-229-233.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page