154
FXUS65 KABQ 040920
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
220 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1250 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, WHEN A FEW NEW
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
- NOTABLY COLDER, WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM
MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WE HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FINISHES PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 9 TO 21
ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES. WE ARE FORECASTING NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN FARMINGTON AND TUCUMCARI THIS AFTERNOON. THICK HIGH
CLOUDS COULD MAKE THIS DIFFICULT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN TUCUMCARI
WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER MOST OF THE DAY. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB THERE, REGARDLESS OF THE HIGH
CLOUDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW TO 10 DEGREES COOLER OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE PASSING
EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER STEERS A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT
INTO THE STATE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND A STOUT SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WEST WIND GUSTS FROM
30-40 MPH WILL BE COMMON, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ON THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40
CORRIDOR FROM CLINES CORNERS TO NEWKIRK. FURTHER, THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE
AZ BORDER ON MONDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY, DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST, SO WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE WINDS THAT WILL BE OBSERVED
THERE ON MONDAY. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY CAUSING THE COOLING TREND TO
CONTINUE IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF NM'S
SOUTHERN BORDER, BUT TIMING AND THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP WE GET IS A
BIG QUESTION. MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER LOW EJECTING EASTWARD FROM
THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS, THOUGH THEY AGREE ON
THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES SOUTHERN NM. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE
TIMING OF THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF MODEL, WHICH
HAS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO EL PASO AT 12Z THURSDAY WITH
MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY CLUSTER FAVORS THE SLOWER OPERATIONAL
RUN OF THE GFS, WHICH STILL HAS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 12Z THURSDAY, AND SPREADS LIGHT RAIN AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES IN
OUR FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A TERTIARY CLUSTER FAVORS THE
FASTER OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE CANADIAN MODEL, WHICH PASSES THE
UPPER TROUGH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PREVENT ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND HAS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OK BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE NBM'S CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
ECMWF WITH PRECIP MAINLY OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE BEST
CHANCE OF SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
MOUNTAINS.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, MODELS VARY ON DEPTH,
TRACK, AND TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS
THAT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT, AND THAT PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS LOOK FAVORED FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THEIR DOWNWARD TREND
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY NEAR TO AROUND 6
DEGREES BELOW 30 YEAR AVERAGES. COOL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ARE
THICKENING, AND CLOUD BASES WILL RANGE FROM 12,000 TO 20,000 FT
BEFORE LIFTING AND THINNING SOME LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-25 KT) BREEZES WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15% FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SUB-15% MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER PEAKING IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY, HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 15-40% ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR MONDAY'S WIND EVENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM AROUND LAS VEGAS TO SAN JON.
ERC'S ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM THE 50TH PERCENTILE NEAR LAS VEGAS
TO THE 80TH PERCENTILE AROUND SAN JON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE ANOTHER WIND EVENT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGHS ON FRIDAY, MAY
ALSO BE BREEZY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER AREAS OF
POOR VENTILATION TODAY, VENT RATES WILL MOSTLY BE GOOD OR BETTER
WITH THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ON MONDAY. AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
THEN LOOK TO RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR POOR VENTILATION AS WINDS WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 33 51 30 / 0 0 20 5
DULCE........................... 56 25 46 24 / 0 5 50 10
CUBA............................ 57 27 47 25 / 0 0 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 57 27 49 23 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 28 47 25 / 0 0 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 60 25 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 26 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 34 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 29 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 24 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 28 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 25 40 23 / 0 0 30 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 33 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 57 32 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 29 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 24 41 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 23 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 56 25 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 60 31 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 60 27 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 32 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 29 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 37 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 36 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 30 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 61 27 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 60 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 26 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 60 31 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 27 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 36 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 33 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 32 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 55 33 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 31 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 24 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 31 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 32 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 37 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 58 38 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 27 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 26 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 67 25 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 32 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 38 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 65 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 71 34 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 38 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 38 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 39 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 69 37 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 36 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 68 37 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 41 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 38 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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