492
FXUS65 KABQ 201944
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF NM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER THE
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS NM THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK,
PEAKING ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
A FILLING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW IS PROVIDING WEAK
FORCING OVER THE REGION AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN NM
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE AND THE AIRMASS
IS RELATIVELY STABLE, WHICH IS DIRECTLY CORRELATED WITH THE
CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
CAMS SHOW CONVECTION TAKING OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM.
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE FAIRLY LOW IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NM, SO CONVECTION WILL BE HIGH BASED AND FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. IN CONTRAST, STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NM WILL BE IN A HIGHER PWAT ATMOSPHERE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE
50S, SO WILL BE MORE CAPABLE OF DEEPER CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THE SPC HAS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF NM
IN A DAY1 MARGINAL RISK AREA AND THE LATEST RAP SHOWS SBCAPE
APPROACHING 2,000J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS BETWEEN
00-02Z NEAR AND WEST OF ROSWELL. CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW A FAIRLY
NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS EVENING, BUT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS
MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. A GUSTY EAST CANYON
WIND WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KABQ, BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AND TREND DOWN RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY WILL STEER DRIER WESTERLIES OVER NM,
INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
VEERING WIND PROFILES WHILE WARMER CONDITIONS BRING INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR A ROUND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE CLOSER
TO THE TX/OK BORDERS THE GREATER THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES, WHICH
ARE STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
EJECTS EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE EJECTING LOW WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY, PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE BACKING THROUGH CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CREATE A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RGV BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE INFUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO FUEL A ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH STORMS
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE MOISTURE CHALLENGED AND
LIKELY FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10")
RAINFALL. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL HELP
TO PROVIDE A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH STORMS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THIS AREA FOR AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY, BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR DAYTIME
HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION THAT WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST NM. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHING FROM OVER SOCAL AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH/LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW WILL COMBINE TO BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PREVAIL BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NM AT MID DAY, BUT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORECAST AT KROW
BY 20Z. KROW MAY BE IMPACTED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME. HIGH PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS EASTERN NM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE EAST CANYON WIND AT KABQ IS FORECAST TO
COME BACK FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 03Z. HOWEVER, GUSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING THRESHOLD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALONG/WEST OF THE RGV
THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXIST. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. CHANCES FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TREND UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, WHILE ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO THE WEST WILL BE OF
THE DRIER VARIETY AND FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS. DRIER WESTERLIES
WILL GRADUALLY WORK EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BOOST HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
STORMS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY WILL BE OF
THE DRIER VARIETY AND FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
FAVORING EASTERN NM. THE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MON/TUE ACROSS
WESTERN NM, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 80 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 34 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 75 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 73 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 77 40 78 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 77 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 44 73 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 39 79 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 83 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 74 50 75 / 10 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 74 41 75 / 30 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 70 40 70 / 10 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 60 34 61 / 10 10 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 66 29 66 / 20 20 0 5
TAOS............................ 40 74 38 75 / 10 5 0 0
MORA............................ 42 70 41 72 / 30 20 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 46 80 46 81 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 75 46 76 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 78 44 80 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 81 54 82 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 48 85 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 83 51 85 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 85 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 80 52 81 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 76 48 76 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 78 49 78 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 78 46 79 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 79 39 80 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 74 45 76 / 20 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 77 47 78 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 79 54 81 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 71 52 73 / 10 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 68 41 67 / 50 40 20 30
RATON........................... 42 72 41 73 / 50 30 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 44 75 41 78 / 40 30 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 73 42 75 / 40 10 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 47 71 48 74 / 50 50 30 30
ROY............................. 46 73 46 77 / 50 20 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 50 82 49 85 / 40 20 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 80 47 84 / 30 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 81 52 86 / 30 20 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 51 79 52 87 / 20 30 20 5
PORTALES........................ 52 80 52 89 / 20 30 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 83 50 88 / 20 20 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 55 87 55 92 / 10 20 10 0
PICACHO......................... 50 82 53 85 / 10 10 0 5
ELK............................. 48 79 51 81 / 10 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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