302
FXUS65 KABQ 142321
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 411 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
- SEVERAL WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL CREATE BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS AND COOLING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND MONDAY. DESPITE THESE FRONTS, DRY CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
OVERALL, THE SAME THEME CONTINUES WITH THE NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH THE PATTERN STAYING REPETITIVE DUE TO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE VERY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN WHILE A DRY
AND CLOUDLESS LOW STAYS SETTLED TO ITS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC
(REX BLOCK). TO THE EAST, THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP
COLDER AIR SPILLING INTO EASTERN CONUS, LEAVING A MERIDIONAL FLOW
OVER AND JUST EAST OF NM.
LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT INTRODUCED A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST (BETWEEN RATON AND
CLAYTON) AND ALSO ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY JUST FAIR WEATHER, HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING
OVERHEAD, AND THESE ARE MODELED TO THIN OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES PATCHES OF SNOW,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU AND SAN JUAN BASIN OF NM,
SO TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM THERE WITH MOST SOLAR
ENERGY/INSOLATION GOING INTO MELTING SNOW THERE TODAY. THIS
EFFECT SHOULD LESSEN MORE IN THE COMING DAYS AS MORE SNOW MELTS
AND SUBLIMATES.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER IN DIRECTION OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT, AND A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL GENERATE STRONGER BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE 700 MB WINDS STILL APPEAR FAIRLY LIMITED WITH
SPEEDS STAYING IN A 15 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A FEW
SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 TO 35 KT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE HIGHLANDS OBSERVING THE HIGHER END GUSTS.
THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY (BY 10
TO 15 DEGREES) IN EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY WHILE MOST OTHER ZONES
HAVE JUST SLIGHT GAINS OF A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
THE MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL STEER ADDITIONAL DRY AND RELATIVELY SUBDUED
SURFACE FRONTS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM IN THE COMING DAYS WITH
THE NEXT ON ARRIVING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PACKING OF ISOBARS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE EARLY FRIDAY FRONT APPEARS TO BE MORE MODEST,
BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
NAM MODEL IS ADVERTISING SOME LOW CLOUDS, MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN TO
EAST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE HREF AND CAM MEMBERS ARE NOT
YET LATCHING ON TO THIS. OTHER THAN THE AVIATION IMPACTS THIS MIGHT
PRESENT, THE DROP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NOTICED
MORE BY EASTERN NM RESIDENTS AS DAYTIME HIGHS FALL BACK SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL COOL JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES, STAYING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.
FRIDAY'S FRONT WILL NOT HAVE FULLY WASHED OUT BEFORE THE NEXT ONE
ARRIVES SATURDAY. THIS ONE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH A FEW MORE BATCHES OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING. WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SEEM LESS INTENSE
WITH THE SATURDAY FRONT, BUT A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
WILL KEEP EASTERN NM ZONES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES
WITH ALL AREAS CLIMBING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
TEMPERATURE SPIKE WILL BE DRIVEN BY ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ZONES, AND MODERATELY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
YET ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN IN EASTERN ZONES IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH READINGS DROPPING JUST BELOW NORMAL
WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACCOMPANY.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK PACIFIC PERTURBATION TREK SOUTH OF THE
BORDER. MOST OF NM, AND MORE-SO THE ABQ FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY DURING THIS STRETCH AS TEMPERATURES INCH THEIR WAY ABOVE NORMAL
IN ALL ZONES AGAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<10%) THAT PATCHY LOW CIGS DEVELOP
IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN AND PECOS RIVER VALLEYS
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z TONIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER IN
EASTERN NM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 25 KTS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MST WED JAN 14 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS A REPETITIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN DRY, BUT GENERALLY ABSENT OF ANY STRONG OR WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL WINDS WITH PERIODIC COOL AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM. FOR PRESCRIBED BURNING INTERESTS: REPEATED DAYS OF POOR
MIXING WILL BE COMMON, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND MANY
LOCATIONS WILL SUFFER FROM POOR SMOKE VENTILATION AND DISPERSION,
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 46 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 52 16 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 50 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 55 15 52 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 53 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 58 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 55 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 24 56 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 22 63 22 61 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 65 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 22 48 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 51 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 27 57 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 23 49 19 43 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 47 13 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 49 9 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 19 51 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 61 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 57 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 52 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 53 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 55 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 58 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 57 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 57 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 58 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 57 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 58 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 57 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 32 54 29 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 57 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 53 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 51 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 28 56 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 59 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 55 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 57 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 58 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 57 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 58 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 21 60 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 64 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 65 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 65 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 32 69 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 66 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 25 72 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 68 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 73 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 70 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 72 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 72 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 28 72 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 31 71 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 69 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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