344
FXUS65 KABQ 281758 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1158 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL FAVOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE WILL BE A 25% CHANCE OF RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE SEVEN CABINS BURN SCAR IN THE CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CA WILL REMAIN
STALLED THERE TODAY, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, AND REACH
UT ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW INDUCED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER
EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE WILL
DIMINISH AROUND MID MORNING TODAY. A PATCHIER EPISODE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM
TONIGHT.
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND BRISK SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER NM, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (65%) WILL BE OVER THE FIRE-RAVAGED CAPITAN
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HREF AND REFS ENSEMBLES BOTH
INDICATE A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.50" OF RAIN ACCUMULATION ON
THE CAPITAN'S SEVEN CABINS WILDFIRE AND BURN SCAR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BE A MIXED BLESSING IF IT WERE TO PAN OUT, BECAUSE THE
BURN SCAR AND STEEP TERRAIN WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RUNOFF
AND SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. ACCORDING TO HIGH
RES MODELS THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT/TIMING ON THE FIRE/SCAR
WILL BE AROUND 0.25" FROM 1-5 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THIS AFTERNOON TRANSITIONS TO EVENING, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS, WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR WILL REACH AROUND 25-30 KT WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPE AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG. MODELS THEN KEEP A
15-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF UT WILL SWEEP A DRY SLOT THROUGH NM
PRODUCING AN ACTIVE DRYLINE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST MODELS FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST PLAINS, AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WESTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT NEAR THE
EASTERN NM BORDER, RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHTER ON
FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY'S STORMS. HOWEVER, A BROADER AREA OF
25-30 KT BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ON FRIDAY, WIND
SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN AREAWIDE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS PROBABLY
PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH AROUND GALLUP AND GRAN QUIVIRA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND A FEW TO 12 DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, THEN READINGS WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
UT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERVADE THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY
GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. AFTER SOME CONTINUED
COOLING CENTRAL AND WEST ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SUNDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ALONG NM'S WESTERN BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A MOIST RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
DEVELOP AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A 15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS, WHICH HAVE
YET TO BE INGESTED BY THE NBM, ALL INDICATE THE MOIST RETURN FLOW
WILL ENABLE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING; POTENTIALLY AS FAR
WEST AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
FEATURE DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
POTENTIALLY FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
SWEEPS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FOUR CORNERS MAY MISS OUT ON THIS MOISTURE, BUT THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN STAND A GOOD CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING A HALF INCH TO OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN, WITH QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS FROM THE CENTRAL
VALLEY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING INTO PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.
MAIN HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN CORES. SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM
AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT DAILY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UPWARD THERE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND
GUSTS WILL MOSTLY VARY AROUND 30-35 MPH IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS HUMIDITIES PLUMMET FROM 7-12 PERCENT, AND ERCS VARY
FROM 65-75TH PERCENTILES. IF THE WIND SPEED FORECAST STRENGTHENS
IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS, THESE LOCATIONS WILL WARRANT A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS DON'T LOOK TO BE
MUCH OF A CONCERN, EXCEPT FOR ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WITH
TIMING DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
IN ADDITION, SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY FROM ALBUQUERQUE NORTHWARD TO THE CO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND ALSO OVER WESTERN AREAS AS GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES
THERE ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 52 83 44 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 83 43 79 34 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 78 48 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 81 40 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 44 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 80 45 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 77 45 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 78 54 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 48 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 81 42 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 46 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 76 41 72 34 / 0 5 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 54 78 49 / 0 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 78 48 76 44 / 10 20 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 49 74 43 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 68 40 65 36 / 0 5 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 41 70 35 / 5 10 20 0
TAOS............................ 79 46 77 41 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 76 47 73 42 / 10 20 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 85 53 84 46 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 78 54 78 48 / 5 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 81 52 81 46 / 5 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 85 61 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 57 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 88 56 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 86 58 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 88 54 90 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 87 58 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 87 53 89 48 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 88 58 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 54 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 82 58 85 54 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 87 57 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 89 60 90 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 55 79 49 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 81 54 81 49 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 81 52 80 47 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 82 49 82 45 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 51 77 47 / 20 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 82 51 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 80 52 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 59 81 56 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 76 55 76 52 / 30 20 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 45 76 43 / 20 20 20 5
RATON........................... 77 47 79 43 / 10 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 78 48 81 44 / 10 20 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 49 76 45 / 10 20 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 77 52 81 50 / 0 20 10 5
ROY............................. 76 50 79 47 / 0 20 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 83 55 86 53 / 0 20 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 54 84 52 / 5 20 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 85 57 87 56 / 5 20 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 86 59 85 56 / 10 20 30 0
PORTALES........................ 87 59 85 56 / 10 20 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 57 86 53 / 10 20 30 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 61 89 57 / 10 30 5 0
PICACHO......................... 82 56 85 54 / 30 30 5 0
ELK............................. 83 54 81 53 / 20 30 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ101-105-109.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71
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