935
FXUS65 KABQ 271208 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 600 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL POSE A RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
- WEST AND SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 45
MPH ON PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOAKING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS WITH PONDING ON ROADS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN, AND SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE MIX
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- EAST WINDS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE A 35-45 MPH CROSSWIND ON
NORTH-TO-SOUTH ROADS FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD, AND ESPECIALLY IN
ALBUQUERQUE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
WITH AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN US KEEPING THE FLOW
ALOFT BRISK OVER NM, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
MAINLY TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY, THEN TO LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON TUESDAY. PEAK
GUSTS SHOULD REACH AROUND 45 MPH BOTH AFTERNOONS. EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
THIS MORNING, HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET MOSTLY INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AGAIN BOTH DAYS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
FAVOR EASTERN AREAS BOTH DAYS, WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL A FEW TO 7 DEGREES OVER
EASTERN AREA FROM SUNDAY'S READINGS, WHILE WESTERN READINGS
REBOUND A FEW TO 5 DEGREES. READINGS WILL THEN CLIMB A FEW TO 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020
AVERAGES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE
AVERAGES SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
BEHIND PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS THAT CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT,
WINDS WILL WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING SEASONABLY GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. A
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS A 15-25 PERCENT CHANCE
OF PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF RED RIVER TO THE OK BORDER.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER WEATHER AND A
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND WETTING RAIN SHOWERS, SPOTTIER THUNDERSTORMS,
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND SHOWERS BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER
WESTERN NM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE
FAIRLY WELL THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW CROSSES SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT
FAVORING THE EASTERN PLAINS, MOUNTAINS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES FOR HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION. RAIN AND LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM 0.25-0.75", EXCEPT FOR LIGHTER
AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND HEAVIER AMOUNTS
GENERALLY UP TO 1.50" ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE NBM'S 90TH
PERCENTILE PRECIP FORECAST INDICATING THAT A FEW SPOTS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS MAY RECEIVE AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE THE
STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS FROM THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA, IT IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY COLD, SO A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW SHOULD FAVOR ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS; EXCEPT FOR TWO NOTEABLE
EXCEPTIONS. THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS LOW AS 8000 FEET, AND SEVERAL
INCHES NEAR AND ABOVE 9000 FEET, SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAW
COOL AIR OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF
THAT SNOW SHOULD FALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND -2 C. BY THAT TIME, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
MOUNTAINS.
LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. THERE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX ACROSS EASTERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM
OUT ON FRIDAY AROUND 7 TO 27 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
READINGS SHOULD THEN REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ALONG THE CO BORDER TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES BELOW THE
AVERAGE ON THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE GUSTS FROM 25-40 KT PERSIST. MEANWHILE,
SOUTHWEST GUSTS WILL PEAK FROM 20-35 KT ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, AND AS FAR WEST AS CUBA
AND DULCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 146 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY, WHERE GUSTS
WILL PEAK UP TO 45 MPH. FARTHER WEST GUSTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 30
AND 40 MPH TODAY, AND BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND A MOIST
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT SINKS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT,
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD FINALLY CLIMB ABOVE 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE REMAINING CRITICALLY LOW IN
MOST LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ABATE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT DIVES INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, EAST WIND GUSTS BELOW CANYONS
OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY ARE FORECAST BY SOME MODELS TO
PEAK BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS BELOW TIJERAS CANYON IN ALBUQUERQUE. AND ON
FRIDAY, NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY AGAIN GUST AROUND 40 MPH
OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS, POTENTIALLY HIGHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 37 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 61 25 63 23 / 30 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 64 31 64 33 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 64 26 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 28 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 31 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 39 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 65 34 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 30 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 34 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 23 56 26 / 30 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 39 65 41 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 64 34 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 32 61 34 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 53 27 58 28 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 22 57 22 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 64 26 65 28 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 64 33 65 32 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 70 35 72 36 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 64 38 66 41 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 41 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 40 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 43 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 78 37 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 41 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 36 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 41 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 77 39 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 70 43 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 42 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 41 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 39 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 69 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 33 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 31 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 36 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 36 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 39 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 46 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 31 67 29 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 70 31 70 30 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 33 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 36 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 74 38 77 37 / 5 5 0 0
ROY............................. 73 36 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 80 43 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 42 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 44 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 47 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 46 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 44 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 87 49 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 47 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-123-125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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