531
FXUS65 KABQ 171902
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH. MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
PERSISTENT RECORD HEAT GRIPS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, TAKING THE EDGE OF
OFF THE RECORD WARMTH GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS MOVING EAST FROM OVER SOCAL, WITH NOTABLE DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF HIGH CENTROID PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER MOVES SLOWLY
EAST TO OVER WESTERN AZ, WITH 500MB HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 595DAM.
THE KABQ 500MB HEIGHT RECORD HIGH FOR MARCH IS 589DAM AND WE'LL
LIKELY EXCEED THAT WITH THE 00Z THURSDAY UPPER AIR OBSERVATION.
PWATS WILL DROP ACROSS NM DURING THIS PERIOD, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES OF 40-50 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
A HISTORICALLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL ASSERT IT'S DOMINANCE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD DAILY RECORD
HIGHS FORECAST AND EVEN A FEW MARCH ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS LIKELY.
THE HEAT WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH, ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO PENETRATE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND
A LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN. THIS SHIFT WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE
WINDS, WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES ANOTHER 1-4 DEGREES
RELATIVE TO FRIDAY. THE ALBUQUERQUE SUNPORT IS FORECAST TO REACH A
HIGH OF 91 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 90
DEGREE DAY ON RECORD (MAY 3RD, 1943 & 1947) AND OVER TWO MONTHS
EARLIER THAN THE AVERAGE 1ST 90 DEGREE DAY. THE HEAT CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY, DESPITE LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WELL SOUTH OF NM. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS
INTO NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY AND THEN SWEEP SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY MOVING WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN CREATING A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE
RGV. MONDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT,
BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT FOR A NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT TUE MAR 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HOWEVER, CONTINUED WARMING AND DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
RECORD WARMTH AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER HIGH
MOVES OVER THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING GOING
INTO MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT,
EXCEPT FOR POOR RATES IN VALLEYS AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 79 35 84 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 30 76 30 80 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 76 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 27 80 26 85 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 78 35 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 80 30 85 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 35 79 36 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 40 77 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 83 35 88 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 88 39 92 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 72 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 72 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 64 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 70 22 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 77 29 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 38 75 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 81 40 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 76 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 79 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 82 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 84 43 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 82 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 39 84 39 88 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 43 83 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 37 84 38 88 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 43 83 43 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 84 37 88 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 79 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 82 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 85 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 78 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 79 31 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 74 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 78 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 73 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 75 38 79 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 80 32 83 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 32 81 33 85 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 39 76 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 80 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 39 78 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 84 42 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 82 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 84 42 88 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 84 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 85 45 89 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 85 42 90 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 86 44 92 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 81 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 78 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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