103
FXUS65 KABQ 291815
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1115 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A DISTURBANCE BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL AROUND MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY 30
MPH OR LESS, BUT A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN FAR EASTERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS GENERALLY PRETTY WEAK, WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY LARGELY
UNAFFECTED BY THE COLD FRONT. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM, INCLUDING ROSWELL, WILL ACTUALLY BE HIGHER TODAY THANKS
TO DEEPER MIXING FROM THE STRONGER WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE SNOW
TO MELT IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, LIKELY LEAVING ONLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER N/S ORIENTED JET MAX WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
ANOTHER NORTHERLY BREEZE TO DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS SHOULD BE
LESS STRONG THAN TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL
TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AROUND THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
A RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, PLACING
NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
IN THE NORTHWEST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT RECENTLY.
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGH EARLY
TO MID-NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BOTH TRENDED
STRONGER WITH THE AFORMENTIONED RIDGE, SUGGESTING A LOWER CHANCE FOR
A TROUGH TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
90TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLES ARE ONLY
AROUND A FEW INCHES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SO CHANCES FOR
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL HAVE TRENDED LOWER. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
DOMINATES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW BATCHES OF HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
BREEZY NORTH WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION TODAY, WITH WINDS
TRENDING LOWER LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE WEAKER TOMORROW, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IN
MOST AREAS. VENTILATION TRENDS EVEN WORSE OVER THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR A WEAK WINTER STORM IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MID-NEXT
WEEK, ALTHOUGH PRECIP. CHANCES AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. EVEN IF THERE IS NO RAIN/SNOW, THE STRENGTHENING
NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST
MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO VENTILATION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 48 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 47 13 51 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 16 45 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 50 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 48 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 50 16 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 49 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 50 28 53 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 48 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 58 20 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 64 23 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 12 42 15 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 23 43 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 19 48 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 42 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 34 15 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 1 39 6 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 9 45 13 48 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 15 47 17 53 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 16 50 18 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 22 45 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 19 47 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 50 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 52 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 55 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 52 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 54 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 52 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 54 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 53 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 54 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 47 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 52 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 25 56 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 44 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 25 45 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 20 46 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 47 13 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 19 42 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 21 47 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 21 47 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 24 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 23 46 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 44 13 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 14 47 13 51 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 13 50 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 17 47 16 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 23 51 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 48 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 21 55 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 22 52 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 20 55 18 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 52 21 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 54 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 20 52 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 20 49 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 24 52 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 21 55 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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