033
FXUS65 KABQ 251130 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
- AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING FARMINGTON,
BLOOMFIELD, DULCE, AND GALLUP.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AFTER THANKSGIVING, INCLUDING SUNDAY
INTO EARLY WEEK, SHOULD STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER
FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER TRAVEL ROUTES OR
PLANS, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING NEW
MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM, MAINLY VALLEY LOCATIONS, IS RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS INCLUDING
FARMINGTON AND DULCE. THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL HELP SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NM AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING PUSHING THROUGH ALL OF
EASTERN NM BY MIDDAY. POTENTIAL FOR NORTH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ALONG AND A LITTLE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANGE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AREAWIDE.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT FOR THANKSGIVING EVE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE EFFECT
OF TODAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE LEE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST NM WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES, NEAR
AVERAGE, ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE. THE SURFACE LEE LOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO THE TX BORDER. WIND GUSTS OF UP
TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
A SPLENDID THANKSGIVING DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD AND THE STATE
SOUTH OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT
BASIN. 700 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW END
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY AROUND
5 TO 10 DEGREES AREAWIDE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE NM/CO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PACIFIC
AND BACKDOOR FRONTS WILL MOVE THE THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MOST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM.
ATTENTION THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE OVERALL STORM EVOLUTION AND
RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER AND IMPACTS. FIRST LOOKING AT THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE GFS, GFS-AI AND CANADIAN HAVE A CLOSED LOW
OVER NEVADA AND UTAH COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DIVING
INTO ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
NEXT MONDAY (SCENARIO 1). MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF HAS AN OPEN WAVE OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY SCRAPING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EC-AIFS IS SIMILAR
TO THE ECWMF WITH THE OPEN WAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPER AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY (SCENARIO 2). NOW FOR THE
CLUSTERS, 33% FAVOR A VERSION OF SCENARIO 1 WITH 32% FAVORING
SCENARIO 2. THE OTHER 35% FAVOR A VERY SLOW SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM
CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA NEXT
MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SW NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY (SCENARIO 3). SCENARIO 1 WOULD RESULT IN IMPACTS FOR MOST
OF THE STATE AS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PEAKING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY BEFORE IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCENARIO
2 WOULD RESULT IN AT MOST MINOR IMPACTS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SCENARIO 3 WOULD RESULT IN IMPACTS MAINLY
NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TO THOSE TRAVELLING BACK HOME FROM
THANKSGIVING WITH FAMILY AND FRIENDS, IT IS RECOMMENDED TO STAY TUNED
TO THE FORECAST FOR ANY CHANGES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
AREAS OF IFR TO AIRPORT MINIMUM CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND FREEZING
FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING KFMN AND KGUP. LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD BURN OFF AROUND MIDDAY DUE TO
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH EASTERN NM LATER THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. SOME GUSTY
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IN ITS WAKE WITH PEAK
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT LOCATIONS LIKE KTCC AND KROW. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS AT KLVS ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LOW (10%) POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY, INCLUDING KROW, EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SOUTHEAST NM
THANKSGIVING EVE DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT. GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY DUE TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND EAST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY DUE TO BREEZY WEST WINDS. MILDER WITH MOSTLY
POOR VENTILATION THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY. COOLER SATURDAY
AREAWIDE BEHIND PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTS WITH POOR VENTILATION
CONTINUING AREAWIDE. LOOKING UNSETTLED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE DESERT SW. EXACT STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION
AND RESULTANT WEATHER AND IMPACTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 27 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 49 16 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 21 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 19 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 26 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 20 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 24 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 30 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 53 27 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 62 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 28 67 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 16 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 28 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 53 23 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 23 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 17 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 11 47 14 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 19 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 22 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 27 49 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 24 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 34 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 26 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 23 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 22 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 24 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 31 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 30 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 27 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 22 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 17 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 23 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 24 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 30 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 19 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 51 20 54 24 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 22 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 23 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 25 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 52 23 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 58 27 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 27 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 27 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 29 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 34 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 65 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 66 25 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ201-203-
204.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ205-206.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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