238
FXUS65 KABQ 202006
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
106 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND LIGHT WINDS.
- A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW,
WINTRY MIX, FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN SOUTHEAST CO TODAY HAVE ALLOWED WINDS
TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER EASTERN NM WITH GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WARMING TODAY AND REBOUND
15 TO 25F WARMER THAN MONDAY. THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
QUICKLY EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL GUST FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST
NM. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST WITH STRONG TEMP
INVERSIONS AGAIN NORTH AND WEST.
WEDNESDAY WILL TREND COOLER OVER EASTERN NM BUT STILL JUST NEAR
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST OVER NM AS A TAP OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN THE
THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY WITH
WARMER TEMPS AGAIN AND MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO
IMPACT MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MUCH STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EJECT EAST ACROSS THE BAJA
REGION. THE LATEST NAEFS INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT (IVT) AND PWATS
ARE +2 TO +4 STDEVS ABOVE CLIMO WITH THE MOISTURE TAP MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING INTO EASTERN NM TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MIXED PRECIP WITH A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, THEN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEAST NM THRU
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED A TAD
COOLER THRU THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONLY A SHALLOW WARM NOSE OVER
CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GAP WIND IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE RGV DURING THIS PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW STRONG AND HOW MUCH OF A PRECIP
SHADOW EFFECT WILL OCCUR ON THE EAST SIDE OF ABQ.
ALL PRECIP IS LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SLIDES OVERHEAD AND 700MB TEMPS
FALL TO BETWEEN -8C AND -12C. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THERE ARE SOME COMPLEX
DETAILS TO RESOLVE WITH RESPECT TO A SECONDARY PIECE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SECOND,
COLDER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT ARE LESS CLEAR. FRIGID TEMPS OVER EASTERN NM SATURDAY
WITH SNOW AND SOME BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS MAY LEAD TO SEVERE
TRAVEL CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SNOW RATIOS WILL
ALSO BE QUITE HIGH BY THIS TIME WITH CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. A COUPLE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD VERY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
NBM PROBS FOR >6" CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE
LATEST WSSI GRAPHICS HAVE ALSO TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER PROBS FOR
MODERATE IMPACTS WITH NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION HAVING >80% CHANCE
OF AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS. FOLKS WITH TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OF THIS EVOLVING
WEATHER SCENARIO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
MOST AREAS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
TURBULENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN MTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION THRU THURSDAY. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER MAY OCCUR
THURSDAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NEARBY
HIGHLANDS WHERE A PERIOD OF SLIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST BREEZES OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMS MAY OCCUR IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 19 46 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 13 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 18 49 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 13 53 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 56 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 57 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 26 54 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 54 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 62 25 61 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 23 65 29 64 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 14 44 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 47 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 21 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 45 24 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 11 44 17 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 44 13 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 12 48 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 19 53 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 53 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 25 47 28 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 48 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 52 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 24 52 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 55 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 25 52 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 17 53 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 24 54 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 54 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 53 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 51 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 52 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 23 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 26 48 29 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 23 51 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 19 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 19 47 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 20 53 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 21 54 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 26 57 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 55 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 13 45 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 13 48 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 14 52 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 17 52 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 21 48 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 46 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 20 54 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 22 53 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 21 54 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 22 52 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 54 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 52 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 21 54 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 25 56 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 24 59 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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