320
FXUS65 KABQ 041140 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY CREATE SLICK TRAVEL AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
AN ELONGATED 560DM H5 LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST THIS MORNING IS
FORCING A DEEP FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED 110KT
SPEED MAX INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF AZ AND NM EARLY THIS MORNING AND
TOP DOWN-MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE SATURATING THE COLUMN THRU THIS
EVENING. DESPITE THICK CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA TODAY, TEMPS
WILL BE WARMER GIVEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH A 992MB SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM. MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
CLOSE TO 50 MPH (WIND ADVISORY) AROUND CLINES CORNERS BUT REFS,
HREF, AND NBM PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT ISSUING AT THIS TIME.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH PWATS REACHING FROM
0.50 TO 0.75" OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM (+2 TO 3 STD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMO). THE SUBTROPICAL SPEED MAX WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 120KT
BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE TO ALLOW AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS, INCLUDING
THE HREF AND REFS, HAVE TRENDED TOWARD HIGHER QPF THRU TUESDAY
EVENING BUT THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE IS STRUGGLING TO SHOW WETTING
PRECIP (>0.10") DURING THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE, STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR
LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TUESDAY (GUSTS 45-55 MPH
EXPECTED).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE APPROACHING
FROM WESTERN CO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PACIFIC WAVE SHEARING APART AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ALONG WITH A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ENTERING NORTHEAST NM THRU WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND WAVE IS A MUCH
COLDER SYSTEM WITH 700MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -3 AND -6C OVER
NORTHERN NM THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, LIFT IS IMPROVING FOR
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NM AND ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST NBM IS STILL STRUGGLING TO CATCH UP BUT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM
SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE 3-6" RANGE FOR THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS EASTWARD ALONG THE RATON RIDGE. A WINTER WX
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS CONTINUE. SNOW LEVELS WOULD FALL TO
NEAR 8,000 FT WITH THESE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO REQUIRE A COUPLE FREEZE
WARNINGS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NM. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM APPEARS TO EXIT
INTO WEST TX BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLKS WITH PLANS TO TRAVEL INTO
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM AND ACROSS I-25 AT RATON PASS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY UP TO DATE ON
THE LATEST FORECAST.
BY THURSDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER NM IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY BE DRIFTING OVER AZ
AS A LINGERING REMNANT THAT PINCHED OFF FROM THE INITIAL PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW THIS LOW OR BAGGY TROUGH
WILL IMPACT PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR AREA AS IT DRIFTS EAST THRU
FRIDAY. POPS DID TREND LOWER WITH WARMING TEMPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TROUGHING MAY REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHILE A STRONG
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD THICK
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NM TODAY WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS,
AREAS OF LLWS, AND TURBULENCE. STRENGTHENING MT WAVES ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN KLVS, KCQC, AND KSRR.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE LOWERING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CIGS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT
DIVIDE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 AM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SPOTTY WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED AROUND CATRON AND
SOCORRO COUNTIES THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG WITH A FEW DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE INTO NORTHWEST NM. TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH STRONGER WEST WINDS COMPARED
TO SUNDAY (GUSTS 25-40 MPH). ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN A FEW AREAS BUT RECENT RAIN, LOWER RFTIS,
LOWER ERCS, AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE
OVERALL RISK. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. THE
GREATER CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE,
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND NORTHEAST NM. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3-6" ARE EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND THE RATON
RIDGE. A STRONG WARMING TREND IS ADVERTISED BY THE WEEKEND AS A
DRY RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE EXTENDED PATTERN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 74 46 65 40 / 0 5 30 30
DULCE........................... 69 35 64 31 / 10 5 40 50
CUBA............................ 69 41 62 32 / 5 10 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 71 41 60 31 / 0 20 60 20
EL MORRO........................ 68 41 59 32 / 0 30 60 20
GRANTS.......................... 72 43 64 33 / 0 20 60 20
QUEMADO......................... 70 42 61 32 / 5 30 60 10
MAGDALENA....................... 71 47 67 38 / 5 20 50 5
DATIL........................... 67 42 61 34 / 5 20 60 5
RESERVE......................... 72 39 66 30 / 5 30 60 5
GLENWOOD........................ 78 42 70 34 / 5 40 60 5
CHAMA........................... 62 32 58 30 / 10 5 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 47 60 39 / 5 10 50 40
PECOS........................... 70 42 64 35 / 0 10 40 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 40 61 35 / 5 5 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 56 34 52 29 / 10 5 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 30 56 28 / 5 5 50 50
TAOS............................ 70 35 63 34 / 5 5 40 50
MORA............................ 68 39 64 34 / 5 5 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 76 45 69 39 / 5 10 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 71 45 64 38 / 0 10 40 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 44 66 37 / 0 10 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 51 69 44 / 0 10 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 52 70 43 / 0 10 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 51 72 41 / 0 10 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 53 71 43 / 0 10 50 30
BELEN........................... 80 51 73 39 / 5 20 50 10
BERNALILLO...................... 79 52 71 43 / 0 10 50 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 49 72 38 / 0 20 50 20
CORRALES........................ 80 53 71 42 / 0 10 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 51 72 40 / 0 20 50 20
PLACITAS........................ 75 50 67 43 / 0 10 50 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 52 71 43 / 0 10 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 82 54 76 43 / 5 20 40 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 46 64 39 / 0 10 50 40
TIJERAS......................... 73 47 64 40 / 0 10 50 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 45 66 37 / 0 20 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 43 68 35 / 0 20 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 44 64 36 / 0 10 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 45 66 37 / 5 20 50 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 73 45 66 38 / 5 20 40 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 53 68 45 / 5 20 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 69 48 63 42 / 0 20 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 70 39 59 32 / 0 0 60 60
RATON........................... 73 41 65 34 / 0 0 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 75 44 69 35 / 0 0 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 71 42 65 37 / 0 0 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 80 44 64 36 / 0 0 30 50
ROY............................. 75 46 68 37 / 0 0 40 20
CONCHAS......................... 83 52 77 42 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 53 73 43 / 0 0 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 53 76 43 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 85 57 78 47 / 0 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 86 58 79 48 / 0 0 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 57 78 46 / 0 0 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 88 58 83 50 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 53 74 46 / 0 5 10 0
ELK............................. 78 51 71 44 / 0 5 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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