181
FXUS65 KABQ 212343 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MST MON JAN 21 2019
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT ODDLY
AT KSAF WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO MIX DOWN. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE
FOR THE EVENT THAT IT STILL DOES BEFORE SUNSET. WIND GUSTS OF
25-35KTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 35-40KTS WILL CONTINUE TO THE
01Z-02Z TIMEFRAME AT WHICH TIME WINDS START TO TURN MORE NWLY WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. SFC MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANY THE FROPA MAINLY THROUGH NW NEW MEXICO,
ACCOMPANIED BY -SN AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. THE BACKDOOR COLD SEGMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM ENTERS INTO FAR NE NEW MEXICO AND KCAO BY THE 09Z-11Z
TIMEFRAME, REACHING KTCC BY ~13Z AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST NM AND
KROW NEAR MIDDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
24/RJH
PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST MON JAN 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT, WHILE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 55 MILE PER HOUR. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND WIND CHILL VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL REINFORCE COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RECOVERING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDES EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUSAS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 55 MPH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THESE
FRONTS WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE BY 18Z TUESDAY,
AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SUNNY
SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FAR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH ANOTHER
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY WILL DROP 3 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS, WHILE SLIGHT WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH A BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REBOUNDING TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUNDAY.
28
FIRE WEATHER
...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED FOR SOME SPOTTY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND EASTERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TUESDAY, CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY, WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER, HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN USUAL.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO THE STATE ALONG WITH BOUTS OF GUSTY
WINDS. WHILE THE TIMING IS SUSPECT, THE NEXT FRONT MAY COME ON
THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER NEXT MONDAY,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE BUNCH. THERE WON'T BE A LOT
OF MOISTURE WITH THESE FRONTS, SO DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN MEAGER
SNOWFALL. THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF GOOD VENT RATES MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH, WITH FAIR TO POOR
RATES OTHERWISE.
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-502-509-512-520>525-527>534-538.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505-506-508-513>515-526-539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ510.
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