391
FXUS65 KABQ 061125 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
- DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN MIDDAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS LATER IN THE DAY EARLY TO MID THIS WEEK.
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS BETWEEN 0.6 TO 1 INCH) UNDER A 594 TO 595 DAM
UPPER HIGH AT 500 MB COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MIDDAY TODAY
WITH A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES INTO NEARBY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN SCARS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND FAR WEST CENTRAL NM WILL BE DRIER IN NATURE WITH MORE
IN THE WAY OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS OVER HEAVIER RAINFALL. OUTSIDE
OF THE STORMS, IT WILL BE HOT WITH MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A SIMILAR WEATHER EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFT WEST TOWARDS AZ. A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERALL
COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS, OUTSIDE OF THE
FAR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE, DUE TO A DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A DEGREE TO TWO HOTTER THAN MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
A DOWNTREND IN DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAVORING THE
HIGHER TERRAIN BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLATTENED 596 DAM 500
MB UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN BAJA CA. EVEN LOWER
COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
NEARBY HIGHLANDS THURSDAY WITH THE FLATTENED UPPER NEAR STILL OVER
SOUTHERN CA. WITH THE LOWERING STORM COVERAGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL HEAT UP A LITTLE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH 90S TO
LOW 100S COMMON ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW ZONES, LIKE THE NW
PLATEAU, MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV, AND CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORIES.
THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS BACK EAST TOWARDS THE STATE FRIDAY TO OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND WHILE ALSO STRENGTHENING TO AROUND
600 DAM AT 500 MB. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE LOWER END. THE ONE EXCEPTION
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
A DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST AMONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ANOTHER CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MIDDAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO NEARBY
LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE DAY. STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. DRIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, INCLUDING KGUP, WILL PRODUCE
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NM TAPERS
OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS
AT KSAF, KABQ AND KAEG. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER HIGH WILL RESULT IN
BETTER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
FIRST STARTING ACROSS ALL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BEFORE DRIFTING INTO
NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ALONG WITH A HIGHER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON AREA BURN
SCARS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM WILL BE ON THE DRIER
SIDE WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING
THE BIGGER THREAT. LOWERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
BACK EAST TO OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES COME THE WEEKEND. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER ARIZONA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 97 64 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 92 51 93 51 / 0 5 20 5
CUBA............................ 91 57 91 56 / 5 20 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 92 57 92 57 / 10 10 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 86 56 87 56 / 20 20 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 90 56 91 56 / 20 10 40 10
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 88 59 / 20 10 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 88 63 88 63 / 40 20 40 20
DATIL........................... 86 58 85 59 / 50 20 60 20
RESERVE......................... 92 53 93 54 / 50 20 60 20
GLENWOOD........................ 97 56 97 57 / 60 30 50 40
CHAMA........................... 84 49 85 49 / 10 5 30 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 64 86 62 / 20 20 50 30
PECOS........................... 90 56 89 55 / 20 20 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 86 54 / 5 5 50 20
RED RIVER....................... 76 48 77 47 / 20 5 70 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 41 81 42 / 20 10 70 20
TAOS............................ 89 55 89 54 / 5 5 40 20
MORA............................ 84 54 84 53 / 40 10 70 30
ESPANOLA........................ 95 62 95 61 / 5 10 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 90 61 89 60 / 10 10 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 58 92 57 / 5 10 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 62 96 61 / 5 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 67 97 66 / 0 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 65 99 64 / 0 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 66 97 65 / 0 10 10 20
BELEN........................... 98 64 99 64 / 0 10 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 97 65 98 64 / 0 10 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 96 62 98 61 / 0 10 10 30
CORRALES........................ 97 65 99 64 / 0 10 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 62 98 61 / 0 10 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 94 66 / 0 10 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 67 97 65 / 0 10 10 30
SOCORRO......................... 98 71 99 70 / 10 20 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 62 90 61 / 10 20 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 91 61 91 61 / 10 20 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 60 91 59 / 20 20 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 54 92 54 / 20 20 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 57 87 57 / 30 20 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 60 90 60 / 20 20 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 59 88 60 / 30 30 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 65 91 67 / 30 20 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 84 58 83 60 / 50 20 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 86 57 86 56 / 20 10 40 10
RATON........................... 92 53 91 53 / 20 10 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 93 56 92 56 / 20 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 88 57 87 56 / 30 20 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 93 63 95 64 / 0 5 5 30
ROY............................. 89 61 90 60 / 0 20 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 97 65 98 66 / 0 20 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 64 93 65 / 5 20 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 67 98 68 / 0 10 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 93 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 97 67 98 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 67 97 68 / 0 10 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 98 69 99 71 / 0 10 5 5
PICACHO......................... 92 64 93 65 / 20 10 20 10
ELK............................. 87 60 90 62 / 50 5 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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