391
FXUS65 KABQ 262049
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
249 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS SUBSIDING.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- AFTER DRY WEATHER MID WEEK, SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ARE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING OVER
MULTIPLE DAYS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES HAS FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ALSO BEEN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND INTO WEST TX. THIS IS KEEPING MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM AND WEST TX WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, WINDS ALOFT ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER IN SPEED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, REDUCING
BULK SHEAR, BUT EARLIER RADAR DATA INDICATED A LONE STORM TAPPING
INTO SUFFICIENT KINEMATICS FOR A STRONG UPDRAFT IN LINCOLN/CHAVES
COUNTIES WHERE A NOTABLE HAIL CORE WAS VISIBLE THAT HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED. THIS WAS MODELED WELL BY THE REFS, AND SHOULD BE AN
ISOLATED OUTLIER WITH MOST CELLS BEING WEAKER AND MORE OF A GARDEN
VARIETY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING,
TURNING MORE SHOWERY OR EVEN DRIZZLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL ALSO
REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER AREAS OF STANDING
WATER, ESPECIALLY IN LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS.
A FEW BATCHES OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY
BURN OFF AND ERODE, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK AND
DRY PERTURBATION CROSSING NM BEFORE MID DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES, REACHING NEAR NORMAL IN WESTERN
ZONES AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STAYS
DRY WITH MODEST SPEEDS (20-25 KT MEAN IN THE 500-700 MB LAYER).
PWATS WOULD STAY IN A 0.15 TO 0.3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NM WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
STRUGGLING TO HOLD ONTO 0.4 TO 0.7 INCH), AND NO SUFFICIENT LIFT
WOULD BE PRESENT FOR CONVECTION.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY INTO
THURSDAY, DRAWING IN SUBTLE RISES IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE ADDED KICKER IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CHIHUAHUA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-40 THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
EXPANDING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWATS OF 0.8
TO 0.9 INCH) LOOKS TO PRIMARILY STAY ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH MORE DIFFUSE OR MODIFIED MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NM AND WEST TX ON FRIDAY, CARRYING ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WITH IT WHILE SOME SUBSIDENCE IS INTRODUCED INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF
THE STATE. FARTHER WEST, ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY WILL BE
ARRIVING INTO AZ AND WESTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ANOTHER WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WOULD THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH.
THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SUBSIDENCE THAT WOULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY, BUT BLENDED GUIDANCE RETAINS
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. BY SATURDAY, THE UPSTREAM
FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN STATES WHERE AN
INLAND-BOUND UPPER LOW WILL BE ARRIVING WHILE A MOIST TROUGH
INCHES CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENINSULA VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THIS
LOOKS TO DRAG AMPLE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH A SOMEWHAT PHASED TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
CROSSING NM. MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE FINER DETAILS,
BUT A TRANSIENT PASSAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW) LOOKS TO CROSS WITH
INCREASES IN WIND AND REDUCTIONS IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WITH A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS.
IN NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE, LOW CEILINGS
ARE MORE PREVALENT WITH MVFR (1000 TO 3000 FT) TO IFR (500 TO
1000 FT) CEILINGS, AND LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KLAM WHERE
CEILINGS ARE STILL AT 100 FT. THESE CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT SOME
THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON, BUT CEILINGS LIKELY WILL NOT FULLY
DISPERSE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A KSRR TO KSXU
TO KCAO LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TYPICAL
HAZARDS OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TOWARD DAWN
TUESDAY IN THESE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS, AND PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL ALSO REDEVELOP IN LOW VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE
SATURATED SOILS REMAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, GRADUALLY DYING OUT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TUESDAY
MORNING, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, DRIER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZES
WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-25 MPH), AND FORTUNATELY, THE
RECENT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO ELIMINATE ANY CONCERN OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STORMS ARE STILL FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY, SPREADING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE (GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCH WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF
0.25 TO 0.5 INCH). A COUPLE OF WAVES OF BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BUT THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM PASSAGE IS STILL SLATED FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING WINDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THIS PACIFIC SYSTEM PASSAGE, BUT ENOUGH RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHOULD ALLEVIATE CRITICAL
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 27 62 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 36 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 26 66 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 28 64 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 30 67 32 67 / 0 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 41 67 40 68 / 0 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 65 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 41 73 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 28 55 29 55 / 0 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 62 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 62 36 65 / 10 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 59 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 26 53 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 56 20 57 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 27 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 29 63 32 65 / 10 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 37 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 62 39 64 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 67 44 69 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 68 45 70 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 70 40 71 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 45 71 45 72 / 0 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 70 41 71 / 0 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 43 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 70 43 71 / 0 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 67 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 49 72 47 74 / 5 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 63 39 64 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 64 41 66 / 0 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 65 36 66 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 67 33 69 / 10 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 63 40 66 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 64 40 67 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 64 41 67 / 20 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 67 48 70 / 30 20 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 41 63 41 67 / 30 20 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 64 35 67 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 34 68 33 70 / 10 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 32 71 33 73 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 65 37 67 / 10 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 46 69 46 74 / 30 10 0 0
ROY............................. 40 69 39 71 / 20 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 75 47 77 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 72 46 75 / 30 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 74 50 78 / 40 20 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 71 51 76 / 60 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 52 73 51 78 / 60 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 71 49 75 / 50 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 71 49 76 / 50 20 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 71 47 75 / 40 20 0 0
ELK............................. 44 69 45 72 / 40 20 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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