995
FXUS65 KABQ 011119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH THROUGH MID WEEK.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
A PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AND DESERT SW THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING BREEZY TO
WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO WESTERN NM WHILE PULLING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NM. THE GULF MOISTURE WILL FUEL
ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST NAM IS
ADVERTISING CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY NEAR THE TX BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 4,000J/KG AND LIS UP TO -9C.
MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ISN'T SCREAMING AT ONLY 25KTS, BUT DCAPE
VALUES OF OVER 2,000J/KG ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
SIMILAR SETUP THURSDAY, BUT WITH EVEN LESS SHEAR AND THE SEVERE
THREAT MORE FOCUSED ON DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST CAMS SHOW CONVECTIVE
INITIATION NEAR THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS THURSDAY, BRINGING AT
LEAST A LOW THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING. SMOKE FROM AREA
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MORE REMOTE PORTIONS OF NM AND ARE
NOT MODELED TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD AIR QUALITY ISSUES AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM
RETREATS NORTHWARD, ALLOWING THE MONSOON HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, PWATS ARE MODELED TO INCREASE AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION,
RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
INITIATED CONVECTION. THE SLOW UPTREND IN PWATS IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR SHORT-LIVED MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE
REGION WILL IMPACT THE AIRSPACE, BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPACT
TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY
MID DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
A TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
BRINGING CONTINUED BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN NM, WHILE PULLING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NM. NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A
ROUND OF WETTING STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THE DRIER
AIRMASS ACROSS WESTERN NM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FURTHER
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, BRINGING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY TO
NORTHEAST NM WHILE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH PROVIDES WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY. WINDS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO TREND DOWN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS THE JET STREAM RETREATS NORTHWARD AND THE MONSOON HIGH GETS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. IN THE MEANTIME, INCREASINGLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH MANY HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES EXPANDING EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS BY
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PULLED INTO THE MONSOON HIGH CIRCULATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 86 39 88 40 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 85 52 87 53 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 85 44 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 84 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 89 48 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 85 50 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 87 60 88 61 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 83 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 88 46 91 47 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 93 52 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 80 42 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 60 87 61 / 0 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 85 52 86 54 / 10 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 53 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 80 40 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 40 80 40 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 85 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 83 51 85 51 / 10 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 91 56 93 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 58 86 60 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 56 89 57 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 66 93 67 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 93 64 94 64 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 61 96 62 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 63 95 65 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 95 59 96 61 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 94 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 58 95 60 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 95 63 96 64 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 60 96 61 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 90 63 91 64 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 94 63 95 64 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 98 66 99 67 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 60 87 61 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 90 58 91 59 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 55 91 56 / 10 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 51 91 53 / 10 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 54 86 54 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 89 56 90 58 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 57 88 58 / 20 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 63 91 62 / 20 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 57 84 57 / 40 5 40 0
CAPULIN......................... 85 53 88 54 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 88 52 91 52 / 10 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 90 54 93 54 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 88 55 / 10 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 93 63 95 64 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 88 58 90 58 / 20 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 96 63 97 63 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 61 92 61 / 40 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 95 66 96 66 / 30 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 92 65 92 65 / 50 30 30 5
PORTALES........................ 93 66 93 65 / 50 30 40 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 65 94 65 / 30 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 93 68 95 68 / 40 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 90 60 91 60 / 60 10 40 5
ELK............................. 88 59 89 58 / 50 20 50 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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