607
FXUS65 KABQ 021940
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT A WEAK
LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THESE AREAS, WITH
HIGHS AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. IT WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS, BUT STILL A FEW
TICKS BELOW NORMAL IN MOST LOCALES. THE UPSLOPE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THESE LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD EXPAND EASTWARD TOWARDS ROSWELL AND CLOVIS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
VERY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT THE
REFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN WESTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. A DRAINAGE WIND WILL ATTEMPT
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RGV EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALL GUIDANCE KEEPS
WINDS BELOW 10 KTS IN NORTH ALBUQUERQUE, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR BALLOONING INTERESTS.
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY ERODE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN MOST AREAS, WITH THE
LARGEST CHANGE (UP TO 15 DEGREES) ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, KEEPING DRY
EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. A SUBTLE EAST/WEST ORIENTED JET
MAX IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO GALLUP. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
WESTWARD TOWARDS CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TREKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND EVEN WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE SO POPS CONTINUE TO
TREND LOWER. AT MOST, THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE A FEW LIGHT
HOURS WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER MID TO LATE WEEK AS
RIDGING ONLY FURTHER AMPLIFIES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER AROUND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE, ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN, POTENTIALLY FAVORING
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MID-MONTH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. FOG
AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KSRR AND IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF EASTERN NM TODAY, WITH COVERAGE PUSHING
WESTWARD TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT LOW CIGS (1-3KFT) ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BR AND FG FAVORED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AROUND
SUNRISE AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. PATCHY FG MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY (30-50% CHANCE).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THE FAVORED AREAS. PATCHY FOG
MAY RETURN AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING TO THE SAME AREAS.
OUTSIDE OF A STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM ON
SUNDAY, LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS STILL A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 73 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 72 40 78 39 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 65 43 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 70 40 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 66 38 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 42 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 66 41 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 44 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 61 41 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 48 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 67 42 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 45 72 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 66 42 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 37 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 24 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 68 38 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 63 40 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 71 45 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 45 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 48 73 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 74 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 74 48 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 48 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 71 47 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 48 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 50 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 44 70 48 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 67 45 72 51 / 0 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 44 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 43 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 43 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 43 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 43 69 45 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 48 68 50 / 20 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 44 64 45 / 60 30 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 42 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 42 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 43 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 48 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 63 45 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 66 51 75 52 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 50 72 49 / 0 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 51 75 50 / 20 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 52 72 52 / 30 30 5 0
PORTALES........................ 61 53 73 51 / 30 30 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 52 73 52 / 10 20 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 64 55 73 52 / 30 30 0 0
PICACHO......................... 60 51 69 48 / 70 60 5 0
ELK............................. 58 48 68 46 / 90 60 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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