518
FXUS65 KABQ 070817
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
217 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 213 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
- A LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE THIS MORNING WILL POSE A RISK TO
NEWLY BUDDING PLANTS AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION OVER NORTHERN
VALLEY AREAS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS
MORNING WITH VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE FROM NEAR ANGEL FIRE TO
RATON, LAS VEGAS, AND MORIARTY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH A MINOR RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN SENSITIVE POPULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN NM BEFORE SUNRISE WILL
DISSIPATE THRU EARLY MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE
SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
SPECTACULAR WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL, LOWER
HUMIDITY, LIGHT WINDS, AND SUNNY SKIES. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER
BUT STILL CHILLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY BUT WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A TAD BREEZY OVER WESTERN NM
WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STILL SEE
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY WILL HELP
TO SPREAD STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
VERY DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND BREEZIER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND
HELP DOWNSLOPING TO WARM HIGH TEMPS ROUGHLY 5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FROM THE LOWER RGV INTO EASTERN NM.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO EASTERN NM. THIS FRONT WILL DRAG SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM
THE PLAINS SOUTH AND WEST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A FEW HOURS
OF NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH OVER EASTERN NM. THE MOISTURE
MAY HELP TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN (20-40% CHANCE) SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE LIMITED SO THE OVERALL IMPACT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE JUST
MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY.
A 590DM H5 HIGH IS STILL SHOWN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO AZ AND NM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND
LIGHT WINDS. THERE ARE HIGH CHANCES THAT THE ABQ METRO WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WITH READINGS NEAR 100F FROM ROSWELL TO CLOVIS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE THE HEAT RISK FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A DEEPER FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVANCING NORTH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO TX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KT OVER EASTERN NM LATE THIS EVENING WILL
TAPER OFF THRU 3AM. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR PATCHY IFR VSBYS
IN FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM AND THE
ESTANCIA VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 1 TO 4" OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY WHILE WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10"
TO 0.30" OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM. A HARD FREEZE OVER A
LARGE AREA OF NORTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMING
TEMPS AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL BRING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
LOWER HUMIDITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COUPLE PATCHES OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP BOTH DAYS AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CLINES CORNERS AREA. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN. HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY BUT
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 73 41 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 69 27 76 31 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 68 35 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 32 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 68 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 34 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 70 37 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 44 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 69 40 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 76 34 82 39 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 80 39 86 43 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 62 29 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 43 73 50 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 70 36 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 37 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 54 31 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 21 67 31 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 68 29 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 68 37 73 41 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 74 38 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 68 42 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 38 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 48 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 44 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 42 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 45 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 76 39 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 43 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 38 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 44 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 40 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 71 46 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 44 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 47 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 43 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 69 43 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 37 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 28 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 38 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 39 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 40 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 47 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 44 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 34 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 32 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 33 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 37 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 68 38 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 77 43 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 41 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 47 85 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 76 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 79 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 44 85 46 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 76 47 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 73 44 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 72 41 79 46 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ201-217-218.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ222-223-
228>231.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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