456
FXUS65 KABQ 142345 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 432 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
- ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST IN THE
ROSWELL, CLOVIS, AND PORTALES AREA SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 8500 FEET, MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE
STATE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY,
BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD ON SATURDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD FAVOR SOUTHEAST AREAS INCLUDING CLOVIS, PORTALES,
AND ROSWELL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SPOTTIER
ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MOST PLACES SHOULD RECEIVE UNDER 0.15" OF RAIN AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT, WHEN THEY WILL GRADUALLY FALL AROUND -2 TO -4
C AS A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT CROSSES NM. AS A RESULT, ONLY AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8500 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES ON THE HIGH RIDGELINE OF
THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
SUNDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. PEAK GUSTS WILL PROBABLY
REACH UP TO 35 MPH IN SOME PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN, THERE
IS A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCE THAT A RIBBON OF WEST WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH WILL DEVELOP ON THE UPPER EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WEST WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH WILL THEN FAVOR THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS THEN VARY ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT NOT NECESSARILY HEAVIER,
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE FAIRLY EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN SOLUTIONS
THAT LEAN A LITTLE MORE HEAVILY TOWARD A TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, OR PERHAPS PASSING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, LIKE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS. CLUSTERS, AND THE AI GFS MODEL, ALSO INDICATE THE
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS MODEL'S MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS A LESS LIKELY OUTLIER. THUS, AT THIS TIME SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN SPREADING TO INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER EAST AS WELL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL PROBABLY ALSO DROP
INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT KEEPING SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 FEET.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR (VISUAL FLIGHT RULES) CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVERHEAD, POCKETS OF
CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL THEN CLIMB ABOVE 15
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD. THE HIGHER
HUMIDITIES WILL MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF THE STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH TEMPERATURES ALSO TRENDING COOLER.
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 60
DULCE........................... 26 68 29 60 / 0 0 0 50
CUBA............................ 35 67 36 61 / 0 0 0 40
GALLUP.......................... 30 67 35 58 / 0 0 0 60
EL MORRO........................ 36 66 37 58 / 0 0 0 50
GRANTS.......................... 30 70 33 62 / 0 0 0 40
QUEMADO......................... 34 68 38 58 / 0 0 0 40
MAGDALENA....................... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 37 66 37 57 / 0 0 0 20
RESERVE......................... 33 71 36 61 / 0 0 0 40
GLENWOOD........................ 38 76 41 66 / 0 0 0 40
CHAMA........................... 32 63 31 55 / 0 0 0 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 65 40 60 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 40 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 64 37 59 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 33 58 32 52 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 64 24 58 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 29 68 31 63 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 38 68 35 64 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 33 72 34 68 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 43 67 41 61 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 68 37 64 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 71 47 66 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 38 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 72 43 68 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 34 73 36 71 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 40 73 41 69 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 34 73 35 71 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 39 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 73 37 71 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 44 69 44 65 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 72 42 68 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 42 76 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 42 68 42 63 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 72 32 67 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 69 40 64 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 74 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 70 45 61 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 71 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 74 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 38 70 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 47 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 38 75 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 79 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 79 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 81 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 82 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 81 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 46 81 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 43 80 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
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