130
FXUS65 KABQ 121926
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
126 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND COOL TO NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD TODAY, AND WILL CENTER
OVER SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS ELONGATED BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK SECONDARY HIGH CENTER OVER THE UT/CO LINE.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER NM TODAY WITH PWATS
CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 0.75 ACROSS NW NM AND 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF THE CWA. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NM. EACH INDIVIDUAL STORM WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AND OUTFLOW-DOMINANT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NEW DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 45 AND 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY.
DRY AIR NEAR AND ABOVE 500 MB MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE, BUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, STORMS OUTSIDE OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST. THEY COULD STILL
PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH OUTFLOWS, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ON MONDAY, DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH AND
OVER NM FROM THE NE. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL NM, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRAVELING WESTWARD ACROSS CO AND NORTHERN NM WHICH MAY INCREASE
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM SLIGHTLY. AS A
WHOLE THOUGH, STORM COVERAGE SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD A BIT FROM TODAY.
HOWEVER, STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SIMILARLY TO TODAY,
STORMS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING DEEPER DRY AIR AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY, WITH OTHER MODELS
LESS BULLISH. NONETHELESS, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NM ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. RATHER, SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THESE STORMS WEST OR
SOUTHWESTWARD. AGAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
RULE.
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL TRACK
WESTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. THE FIRST HAS BEEN
ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO, AND THE SECOND
IS A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST TX LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ATTM, IT APPEARS THE FIRST DISTURBANCE
WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND GET SOMEWHAT
ABSORBED INTO THE LOW OVER SW TX. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MIGRATE WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE PARKING OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, IT WOULD MEAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WED AND THU WHILE
SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE LOW WOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN
NM, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AREAWIDE AS THE LOW MOVES OVER/NEAR NM. IF THE LOW CENTERS OVER
CENTRAL NM, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHER THAN IF IT
PARKED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NM/MX BORDER (AS THE UPPER HIGH
OVER UT WOULD HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE OVER NM), BUT IT WOULD
STILL BE AN UPTICK FROM WHAT WE WILL HAVE MUCH OF THIS WEEK. STAY
TUNED. THE PATTERN AND FORECAST MAY CHANGE A BIT AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK AS THESE ARE WEAK FEATURES THAT WERE WATCHING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FAVORING EAST CENTRAL NM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 15
MPH. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT-LIVED, OUTFLOW-DOMINANT
STORMS AND COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL INITIATE NEW
DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 KT,
THOUGH A FEW STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM MAY
PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 50KT. STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING,
BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ANOTHER GAP WIND IS EXPECTED AT KSAF AND KABQ THIS EVENING, THOUGH
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHT. GUSTS NEAR
30KT ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THOUGH SUB-15% RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM, THAT SHOULD BE THE END OF SUB-15% RH FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. INSTEAD, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST, AND DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EASTERN AREAS TODAY, BUT ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. ON MONDAY, STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHWEST NM, WHILE COVERAGE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY. STORMS WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND MONDAY, SANS WHERE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES RESULT IN ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD
FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO. THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH STORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE IN STORE
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 69 96 63 95 / 10 20 20 10
DULCE........................... 54 91 52 92 / 10 40 20 30
CUBA............................ 58 86 57 86 / 5 20 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 58 86 57 85 / 10 5 5 30
GRANTS.......................... 59 90 58 88 / 5 5 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 59 87 59 86 / 10 10 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 63 86 62 84 / 10 10 5 10
DATIL........................... 58 83 58 83 / 10 10 5 10
RESERVE......................... 55 90 55 90 / 10 30 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 56 92 56 91 / 30 30 30 50
CHAMA........................... 49 83 50 83 / 5 40 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 83 63 84 / 5 10 10 30
PECOS........................... 54 84 54 83 / 10 30 10 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 84 54 84 / 0 50 20 50
RED RIVER....................... 45 75 45 73 / 5 40 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 78 40 76 / 10 30 5 40
TAOS............................ 54 86 53 86 / 5 30 20 40
MORA............................ 51 80 52 79 / 20 30 10 40
ESPANOLA........................ 63 92 62 91 / 5 20 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 60 85 60 84 / 5 40 10 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 89 58 87 / 5 20 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 92 66 90 / 5 5 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 93 68 91 / 5 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 95 65 93 / 5 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 94 66 92 / 5 5 5 20
BELEN........................... 64 95 63 94 / 10 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 65 95 66 93 / 5 5 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 94 62 93 / 5 5 5 20
CORRALES........................ 65 95 65 94 / 5 5 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 94 62 93 / 10 5 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 90 67 89 / 5 10 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 94 66 93 / 5 5 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 86 60 85 / 5 5 5 30
TIJERAS......................... 60 88 60 87 / 5 5 5 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 87 58 86 / 10 10 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 87 54 87 / 10 5 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 83 56 82 / 10 5 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 87 57 86 / 10 5 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 85 57 84 / 10 5 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 87 62 87 / 10 10 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 77 55 76 / 10 30 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 82 54 80 / 5 10 0 10
RATON........................... 55 88 55 86 / 10 5 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 87 56 86 / 20 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 83 54 80 / 20 10 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 88 61 87 / 5 5 5 5
ROY............................. 60 84 59 83 / 20 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 65 91 64 90 / 20 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 87 62 86 / 10 10 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 91 64 91 / 20 10 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 64 88 63 87 / 20 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 64 91 63 89 / 20 30 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 90 64 89 / 20 20 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 68 89 66 89 / 30 20 30 30
PICACHO......................... 62 84 60 84 / 20 20 20 30
ELK............................. 57 81 56 80 / 30 30 30 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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