103
FXUS65 KABQ 161146 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS THAT INCREASE THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TODAY, WILL
EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND ALSO ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND MOSTLY DRY MICROBURST WIND
GUSTS WITH BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND
WETTER STORMS WITH A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW BURN
SCARS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VERY DRY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB 2 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CLIPPED NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY.
HOTTER, DRIER, AND WINDIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
REACH 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH RECORD AND NEAR RECORD
READINGS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
HEAT WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AS READINGS PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 100S FROM ALBUQUERQUE
SOUTHWARD, AND ALSO ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST IN ROSWELL WHERE THE MERCURY SHOULD
REACH AROUND 110 F. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE WILL ISSUE AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR CHAVES COUNTY WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BOTH DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
THE RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHERE HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS PEAK AS MUCH AS 40 MPH.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD TO MORE OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY, AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
AS HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALMOST AREAWIDE.
THE HIGHEST NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY
REACH AROUND 45 MPH NEAR NAVAJO LAKE AND ON I-40 AROUND CLINES
CORNERS.
THERE IS A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
GLENWOOD, WHERE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CA WILL STEER SOME ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SOME
OF THESE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL REACHING
THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL BE SHORTLIVED, SINCE A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WITH A ~ 1012
MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS
PROPAGATING IT, THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN EAST WIND GUSTS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY UP TO 40 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO FALL AS MUCH AS 19 DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY'S READINGS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND A FEW TO 5 DEGREES
CENTRAL AND WEST.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FRONT, AND MODEST AMOUNTS
OF ELEVATED MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SHOULD ENABLE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GALLUP TO
ALBUQUERQUE. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING IN THE MIX. WETTING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOK TO FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WITH OPERATIONAL RUNS OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS (THAT WON'T BE
INCORPORATED INTO THE NBM UNTIL LATER TODAY) DEPICTING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, EXCEPT FOR
NUMEROUS CELLS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST. ONCE AGAIN, GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE MOST COMMON MODE
OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY, EXCEPT
FOR STORMS WITH SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ON SATURDAY, A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED AT LEAST IN THE WEST, AND PROBABLY ALSO IN THE EAST WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTING EAST OF NM. HOWEVER, THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY. WETTING FOOTPRINTS SHOULD BE PRETTY
SMALL, SINCE A DRIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST US
WILL BEGIN TO STEER SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER NM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER
WESTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
REDEVELOP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BY SUNDAY, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MAY SPREAD TO INCLUDE EASTERN AREAS AS WELL,
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. THE DRIER AIR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MOIST BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING,
ENABLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SPOTTIER AND DRIER ACTIVITY AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR AND LOW VFR CONDITIONS
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF DURING MID
MORNING. OTHERWISE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TODAY, ENABLING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
THIS WILL MAKE DENSITY ALTITUDE AND IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR
AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN. IN ADDITION, NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS REACHING AROUND 35 KT IN THE
FARMINGTON AND NAVAJO LAKE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER AND JUST EAST OF MOUNTAIN RANGES, BUT ALSO WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET ON THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
ASIDE FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST ELSEWHERE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER WATCH STILL LOOKS
APPROPRIATELY POSITIONED FOR WEDNESDAY, WHEN GUSTS WILL PROBABLY
REACH AROUND 40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS, AND AROUND 45 MPH IN
CORNERS, AS MIXING HEIGHTS SOAR BETWEEN 14-17K FT. THE CONCERN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BECOME ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
AND THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. THIS CONCERN MAY LINGER ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY, AS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THREATEN TO RETURN FARTHER WEST. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY IF THE
FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ENOUGH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE WESTERN US.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 95 58 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 91 45 94 45 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 56 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 92 54 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 89 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 93 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 59 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 91 65 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 88 63 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 95 52 93 51 / 0 0 40 10
GLENWOOD........................ 98 56 97 55 / 0 0 30 10
CHAMA........................... 85 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 63 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 89 57 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 76 47 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 45 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 88 51 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 86 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 94 57 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 89 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 58 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 68 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 64 100 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 63 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 99 62 103 67 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 61 101 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 98 64 101 68 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 62 102 66 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 97 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 64 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 71 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 62 93 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 57 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 59 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 60 95 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 66 98 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 86 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 86 53 92 53 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 91 52 97 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 92 53 97 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 58 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 90 61 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 89 57 96 60 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 98 61 104 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 63 101 65 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 65 105 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 95 66 103 66 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 96 67 105 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 63 104 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 99 66 110 75 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 94 65 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 91 62 97 66 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ101.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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