268
FXUS65 KABQ 221121 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET FRIDAY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH
COLD AIR SPREADING INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA, WITH THE
HIGHEST THREAT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK UP
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE, TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED QUITE RAPIDLY THANKS TO THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING, WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE STATE TODAY, WITH A LIGHT TO
MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN NM IN RESPONSE TO A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...
BIG PICTURE UPDATES:
- SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO HIGHER SNOW LEVELS
RELATED TO THE SLOWER WESTERLY PROGRESSION OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
MAJOR IMPACTS IS STILL FAVORED FOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM
TIJERAS CANYON TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH FOR BITTERLY COLD SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN EASTERN
NM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY ARRIVING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS AND
THE MOST INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION FURTHER EAST IN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS.
SFC WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
NM AS THE ~1050MB SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN EASTERN NM AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES PUSHING IN FROM THE EAST.
MEANWHILE, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST, WITH PWATS
RISING UP TO AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM. THE WARM, MOIST PACIFIC MOISTURE JUXTAPOSED WITH
THE COLD, DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IS WHAT WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LARGE-SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT
PROVIDE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR A WIDE SWATH OF PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SHOW AN VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM 300MB DOWN TO THE
SFC FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, CREATING TREACHEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG I-40 FROM TIJERAS CANYON EASTWARD TO
TUCUMCARI. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW, BUT IT WILL BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN AS THE SNOW PILES UP AND SNOW CHARACTER TRENDS DRIER AS
TEMPERATURES DROP. THE "BULLSEYE" FOR SNOW AMOUNTS HAS CONSISTENTLY
TRENDED FURTHER EAST IN RECENT FORECAST UPDATES, WITH THE MAX
SHIFTING FROM TORRANCE COUNTY INTO GUADALUPE COUNTY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AT BAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL BE PULLED WESTWARD AFTER
SUNSET SATURDAY NIGHT, RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS. THIS
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA IS NOTABLY
LATER THAN MODELS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED, WITH THREE STRAIGHT RUNS
FROM THE GEFS AND EPS TRENDING WARMER IN THIS AREA. THERE IS STILL
TIME FOR THIS TREND TO REVERSE AS IT WILL BE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE
COLD FRONTAL POSITION. THE RECENT RISING OF SNOW LEVELS IS NOT
UNIQUE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THOUGH, AS IT IT SHOULD DELAY THE
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW IN WESTERN NM AND THE TULAROSA VALLEY/SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL. THE BASE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ALSO
BE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT REMAINING CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NM. A LAGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ONE LAST BURST OF SNOW LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE EPS AND GEFS HAVE TRENDED FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GEFS IS STILL HOLDING ONTO A SLOWER MOVING
TROUGH WHICH WOULD FAVOR A BIT MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS.
COLD TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO INVADE EASTERN NM, WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE NBM IS SHOWING A 10-50% CHANCE
OF LOWS BELOW 0 ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE COLDEST MORNING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, INCLUDING ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE MORNING LOWS HAVE TRENDED COLDER. THE
NBM IS NOW SHOWING UP TO 90% CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO LOWS IN THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING A 50% IN TAOS.
THAWING WILL OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS CREEPING UP TO
NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-WEEK. DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS FAVORED THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR INCREASED RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 10KFT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS, WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE EAST JUST BEFORE 12Z TOMORROW MORNING, WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING
MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. DRY, SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW AND MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NM BEHIND AN ARCTIC
FRONT. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY, WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPS EARLY TO MID-WEEK AS SNOW MELTS.
VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR IN MOST AREAS THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY,
WITH ONLY POCKETS OF FAIR VENTILATION BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 29 47 33 / 0 5 20 80
DULCE........................... 51 22 41 27 / 0 10 60 90
CUBA............................ 50 27 40 27 / 0 0 50 90
GALLUP.......................... 54 22 47 28 / 0 0 40 70
EL MORRO........................ 51 29 43 31 / 0 0 50 80
GRANTS.......................... 56 24 46 26 / 0 0 50 80
QUEMADO......................... 56 28 47 31 / 0 5 60 70
MAGDALENA....................... 56 36 45 36 / 0 5 60 80
DATIL........................... 54 31 44 32 / 0 5 60 80
RESERVE......................... 61 28 49 31 / 0 10 70 80
GLENWOOD........................ 64 31 52 33 / 0 10 70 80
CHAMA........................... 45 21 36 24 / 0 5 50 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 30 39 30 / 0 0 40 90
PECOS........................... 51 24 39 22 / 0 0 40 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 29 38 28 / 0 0 30 70
RED RIVER....................... 41 24 33 23 / 0 0 30 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 14 36 15 / 0 0 30 90
TAOS............................ 50 19 40 24 / 0 0 30 80
MORA............................ 55 22 37 20 / 0 0 30 90
ESPANOLA........................ 54 23 45 29 / 0 0 30 90
SANTA FE........................ 49 30 41 29 / 0 0 40 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 27 43 27 / 0 0 40 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 36 46 36 / 0 0 50 90
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 32 47 34 / 0 0 50 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 30 48 33 / 0 0 40 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 32 47 35 / 0 0 40 90
BELEN........................... 56 27 49 33 / 0 0 50 90
BERNALILLO...................... 56 31 47 33 / 0 0 40 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 27 49 31 / 0 0 50 90
CORRALES........................ 56 30 47 33 / 0 0 40 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 28 49 33 / 0 0 50 90
PLACITAS........................ 52 34 45 33 / 0 0 50 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 32 47 34 / 0 0 40 90
SOCORRO......................... 59 32 49 37 / 0 5 50 90
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 30 41 30 / 0 0 50 90
TIJERAS......................... 49 32 43 31 / 0 0 50 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 27 41 26 / 0 0 40 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 21 42 21 / 0 0 40 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 23 36 20 / 0 0 40 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 30 43 27 / 0 0 50 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 30 44 29 / 0 0 60 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 35 48 35 / 0 5 70 90
RUIDOSO......................... 54 35 43 31 / 0 10 70 90
CAPULIN......................... 51 15 26 6 / 0 0 10 50
RATON........................... 54 16 30 10 / 0 0 10 50
SPRINGER........................ 56 17 32 13 / 0 0 10 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 20 34 17 / 0 0 20 80
CLAYTON......................... 49 19 23 6 / 0 5 30 80
ROY............................. 51 20 27 10 / 0 0 20 80
CONCHAS......................... 59 23 33 12 / 0 0 30 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 24 36 16 / 0 0 30 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 22 31 13 / 0 0 20 90
CLOVIS.......................... 60 27 33 15 / 0 0 20 90
PORTALES........................ 62 27 34 14 / 0 0 30 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 24 39 15 / 0 0 30 90
ROSWELL......................... 61 31 44 28 / 0 0 50 90
PICACHO......................... 66 32 44 25 / 0 5 50 80
ELK............................. 65 32 46 23 / 0 10 70 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ210>218-221>224-226-229-232>240.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ207-208-219-225-241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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