734
FXUS65 KABQ 092003
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
203 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
- LIGHTNING AND STRONG WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN
COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING AND
EAST CANYON WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING WILL
RESULT IN DIFFICULT CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS TUESDAY FROM RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
IT'S A WARM DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY TO MID MAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON SOME HIGH BASED
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM NEAR THE
CO BORDER. THESE SHOWERS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON. ANY HIGH BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NM
WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AT SUNSET.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NORTHEAST NM DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER AND REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT SURGES
THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN NM EARLY TO MID SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH
WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
35 TO 45 MPH. A FEW BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT A FEW SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY
BECAUSE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND MORNING CLOUDS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL BE DRAPED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
COME MIDDAY SUNDAY, EAST TO NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE BACKDOOR
FRONT, HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF PWATS AROUND 0.50 INCHES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, AND INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING
(MLCAPE OF 600-1200 J/KG) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN RISK FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH SMALL
WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES UNDER CORES OF THE STORMS.
A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND 1" HAIL DUE TO BETTER
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KTS.
THE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL HELP
PUSH THE BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SUNDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND FOR
LOCATIONS INCLUDING SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE, AND CARRIZOZO. PEAK WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH NEAR CANYON OPENINGS. ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. RAINFALL FROM
SUNDAY'S STORMS COMBINED WITH LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUD AND
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A 586 TO 587 DAM UPPER LEVEL HIGH AT 500 MB OVER SOUTHERN CA SUNDAY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENING TO 589 TO
590 DAM MONDAY. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND 10 TO 20
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM (DUE TO DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS) COMPARED TO SUNDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH
A PEAK 500 MB HEIGHT AROUND 591 TO 592 DAM. THESE HEIGHTS ARE AROUND
THE DAILY MAX FOR MID MAY, SO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED AREAWIDE! WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, AND MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS EASTERN NM, A RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES EXISTS FOR
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT AND LACKING IN COOLING AND HYDRATION.
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES OVER PACIFIC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
LOW CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL DOWN WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
WESTERN NM, MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE RGV, AND 90S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
INCREASING COVERAGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS A DISTURBANCE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHERN NM. SOME ISOLATED HIGH BASED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM NEAR THE CO BORDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KTS. THIS INCLUDES KSKX, KAXX, KRTN, AND KCAO.
ELSEWHERE, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM KFMN TO KSAF TO KCQC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST, AND WEST CENTRAL NM
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL NM SUNRISE SUNDAY. A
BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SURGING THROUGH THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE HOURS
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KTS. BRIEF GUSTS OF UP TO 45 KTS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM BETWEEN KRTN TO THE TX BORDER MID AND
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 203 PM MDT SAT MAY 9 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH FROM HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MUCH COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY
HIGHLANDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS OF 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES UNDER STRONGER STORMS. A FEW STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN COULD BECOME SEVERE. EAST
CANYON WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. HEATING UP
AREAWIDE MONDAY BEFORE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST AND OVER THE STATE. SLIGHTLY COOLER MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS ON RAPIDLY
DRYING FUELS COULD RESULT IN FUTURE FIRE STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 81 47 87 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 34 78 34 83 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 45 76 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 80 38 85 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 78 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 80 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 79 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 52 77 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 47 86 42 89 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 49 90 46 92 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 72 34 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 74 48 79 / 0 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 47 69 39 78 / 0 40 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 69 40 77 / 10 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 58 34 66 / 20 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 63 28 73 / 10 40 0 0
TAOS............................ 39 73 34 81 / 5 5 0 0
MORA............................ 45 64 38 78 / 0 50 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 50 80 45 86 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 73 44 79 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 77 42 82 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 82 51 84 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 83 48 86 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 86 48 89 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 84 50 87 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 55 85 46 88 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 84 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 85 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 85 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 85 46 88 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 58 79 50 82 / 0 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 84 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 75 46 79 / 0 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 77 46 80 / 0 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 75 41 81 / 0 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 75 36 83 / 0 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 67 39 78 / 0 50 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 74 41 81 / 0 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 74 43 79 / 0 30 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 78 50 82 / 5 30 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 68 47 75 / 0 40 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 42 59 36 76 / 10 20 0 0
RATON........................... 45 65 37 82 / 10 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 46 68 38 84 / 10 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 64 40 80 / 0 70 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 63 42 80 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 48 66 41 79 / 5 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 72 44 87 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 71 42 83 / 0 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 71 43 86 / 5 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 70 45 84 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 72 44 85 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 74 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 81 51 83 / 0 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 74 48 81 / 0 20 5 0
ELK............................. 55 72 46 81 / 0 30 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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