705
FXUS65 KABQ 260555 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
AVIATION
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER
NEW MEXICO, HOWEVER IN THE LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS USHERING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE EXPANDING OVER
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL QUITE REACH AS
FAR WEST AS KLVS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES INDEED
EXPAND FARTHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. LOW
CLOUDS WILL ERODE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AFTER 26/21Z, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
PREDOMINANTLY DRY (VIRGA) WITH GUSTY WINDS.
52
PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
SYNOPSIS
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EVEN DRIER AIR WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST
WINDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. WIDESPREAD STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH COLDER
AIR WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER NM TODAY IS DELIVERING ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT WINDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
SURFACE TO 700MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER NM. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING FROM ROSWELL NORTH TO TUCUMCARI BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION.
HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT RECORD MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES NEAR 0.75"
AS FAR WEST AS SOCORRO. THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES VERY TRICKY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW ON
WHETHER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REALIZE THE INSTABILITY WHILE A
60-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HI-RES MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP PRECIP AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS
AND GEM SHOW A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND THE RGV OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z WPC ENSEMBLE PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
CLOSER TO THE WETTER GFS AND GEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME AND KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY WITHIN CENTRAL
NM. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WHILE WEAK FORCING
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DRIER AND MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE TRENDED
LIGHTER THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE SLOWER AND POISED
FOR FRIDAY NOW. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
FRIDAY MAY BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORIES AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
GUYER
FIRE WEATHER
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO SURGE NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY
THE LIMITING FACTOR. AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING FAVORING THE
JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN SANGRES. GULF MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDTIONS LIKELY IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ZONE 106) AND
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS (ZONE 108). MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INCLUDE HAINES VALUES IN THE 3 TO 4
RANGE AS WELL AS 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE ABOVE 11% IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ZONE 108. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
33
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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