776
FXUS65 KABQ 262335 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 510 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND
MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE CANYON GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER CHIHUAHUA
TODAY WITH VERY ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS THAT WILL KEEP
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF MX AND THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ORBITING THE HIGH AND
WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE NM-CO BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS
USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WITH 20
TO 30 KT AT 700 MB, WHICH IS RELATIVELY SUBDUED FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
DOWN AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NM WHILE THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY PRESENT HIGH FIRE DANGER.
BIG TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY THOUGH, AS A VAST CYCLONE
OVER EASTERN CANADA SENDS A POTENT COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PLAINS OF THE CONUS. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY A STOUT
1042 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL STEER THE FRONT INTO NORTHEASTERN NM
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ZONES OVERNIGHT. MODEST DEWPOINT RISES AND SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A NEARLY 10 MB SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ESTABLISHING FROM THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF UNION CO
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS
WILL INVOKE VERY HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST OVER OUR FAR EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES, AND THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING
WITH A FEW WIND ADVISORIES ALONG ADJACENT ZONES/COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD, SPILLING THROUGH GAPS AND
CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER TULAROSA BASIN AND A HIGH
WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE (EASTERN) ABQ METRO AREA. WINDS WILL
BUFFET THE PLAINS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY BEFORE STARTING TO
DECREASE IN SPEED, BUT THE GAP/CANYON WINDS MAY SEE A RESURGENCE
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, SO THOSE STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR A FEW
HOURS LONGER. BLOWING DUST AND VERY POOR TO LITTLE VISIBILITY WILL
BE A HIGH CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT IS SPRING PLOWING SEASON FOR
MANY AGRICULTURAL LANDS UPSTREAM IN EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 50'S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, 30 TO 40 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT ONLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS QUITE REMARKABLE GIVEN HOW FAR ABOVE
AVERAGE WE HAVE BEEN RUNNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN WESTERN ZONES,
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL HOLDING ABOVE NORMAL.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOTS OF 30'S BEING COMMON FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HOWEVER, READINGS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES, AND STILL ABOVE IN WESTERN
ONES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT STAYS OVER MX AND TX THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY IN MOST ZONES. A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP, AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
RESUME IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND
UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STARTING
TO GATHER SOME MARITIME MOISTURE, AND INCREASES IN MID LEVEL (500
MB) RH ARE MODELED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY
TRANSLATE TO SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NM SATURDAY, BUT A
CONTINUED FETCH OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SUNDAY ALONG WITH
BETTER INSTABILITY (LI'S OF 0 TO -2 C) SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN TIERS OF THE STATE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL SHARP INVERTED-V PROFILES, SUGGESTIVE OF
LARGE EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL FROM ANY HYDROMETEORS WITH HIGH
DCAPE (600 TO 1100 J/KG). THESE DRIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOWS LIKELY PRESENTING MORE IMPACT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE CLIMBED WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN IN ALL ZONES BY SUNDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE GULF AND
EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND THIS
WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO MORE PERTURBED AND STILL RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES (10 TO 30%) FOR
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE FEEDING INTO MOSTLY
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NM WITH QPF STILL STRUGGLING TO
REACH 0.10 INCH. COPIOUS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TEMPER HIGHS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH
DAYS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW
TURNS A BIT MORE WESTERLY AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES JUST NORTH
OF NM. A DRY SLOT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WOULD THEN DISRUPT
THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM, AND LESS CLOUD COVER WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES WOULD ENSUE THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KT WILL PREVAIL THRU SUNSET THEN
RELAX THRU THE EVENING. A CENTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR
TURBULENCE OVER EASTERN NM UNTIL 7PM. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SURGE SOUTH THRU EASTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTH WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50KT ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. AREAS OF BLDU MAY CREATE
BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THRU SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL SURGE WEST INTO
THE RGV AFTER 3AM WITH EAST WIND GUSTS OF 35-45KT THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM KABQ SOUTHWARD TO ABO PASS AND CARRIZOZO. AN
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT THE SUNPORT WITH THESE
WINDS. THE FRONT WILL ALSO CREATE PERIODS OF LLWS IN ITS WAKE.
PATCHY LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR KCVS TO KROW AND
KSRR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
NO CHANGES ARE BEING MADE TO THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING DUE TO STRONGER WINDS FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. WINDS WILL SETTLE THIS EVENING
WITH RH INCREASING, AND THIS WILL ALLOW CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO ABATE.
WINDS WILL THE SURGE UP IN SPEED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A POTENT
COLD FRONT SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODEST INCREASES IN
DEWPOINTS AND SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY RED FLAG STATEMENTS, BUT THE GUSTS WILL BE OF
CONCERN NONETHELESS WITH MANY AREAS REACHING PEAKS OF 40 TO 60 MPH
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON (FIRST IN THE EASTERN PLAINS) AND THEN OVERNIGHT (CENTRAL
GAPS/CANYONS).
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THIS WEEKEND, NEARING OR BARELY SURPASSING
CLIMATOLOGY ON SATURDAY, AND THEN EASILY EXCEEDING NORMALCY BY 10 TO
20 DEGREES ON SUNDAY. LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL INDUCE BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WHERE
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALIGNING.
HOWEVER, THE BIGGER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY TURN TO SUNDAY WHEN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ZONES WHEN FAINT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES, POSING NEW
IGNITION THREATS.
THIS DRY LIGHTNING THREAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES TO STEER JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR VIRGA AND DRY STORMS INTO THE STATE, PARTICULARLY WESTERN TO
CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS
TIME FRAME WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY COMMONLY DROPPING TO 10 TO 30%,
MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY SOAKING RAINFALL TO TRANSPIRE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 34 75 29 73 / 0 10 0 5
CUBA............................ 40 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 33 76 35 77 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 36 68 33 73 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 32 69 31 74 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 38 73 35 76 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 45 63 34 69 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 41 65 32 72 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 36 81 34 77 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 40 86 38 79 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 37 68 29 66 / 0 10 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 39 59 29 68 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 64 31 68 / 0 5 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 32 52 25 62 / 0 10 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 54 19 65 / 0 10 5 10
TAOS............................ 35 66 27 70 / 0 5 0 10
MORA............................ 35 54 26 72 / 0 5 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 37 74 33 74 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 40 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 67 33 70 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 41 71 33 75 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 43 71 35 74 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 46 70 37 73 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 71 32 74 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 45 71 38 74 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 70 35 73 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 49 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 51 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 60 33 67 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 46 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 60 31 69 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 61 28 72 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 53 29 66 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 59 30 68 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 57 31 67 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 37 51 29 66 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 31 47 28 68 / 5 5 0 5
RATON........................... 35 56 26 74 / 5 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 37 56 29 76 / 0 5 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 54 28 70 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 36 53 33 70 / 5 0 0 5
ROY............................. 37 53 31 70 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 43 58 36 76 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 57 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 57 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 53 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 42 54 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 56 36 70 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 58 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 53 35 70 / 0 5 0 0
ELK............................. 40 53 31 70 / 0 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-121>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
NMZ230-234>236.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
NMZ227-231.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ219.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ225-238.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
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