308
FXUS65 KABQ 030822
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
222 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 207 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND LIMIT VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE
OR LESS, CREATING DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER NM TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IMPROVING MID/HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST NM (10-20% CHANCE) THEN MOVE
QUICKLY EAST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. DCAPE
VALUES >500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR WITH LARGE INVERTED-V
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BUT LITTLE RAINFALL.
THE 00Z HREF AND REFS 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE SUPPORT ISOLATED RAIN
AMOUNTS >0.10" IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS, WARMER TEMPS, LOWER HUMIDITY, AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 15-30 MPH. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER NORTHWEST NM BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN THRU MIDNIGHT (20-30% CHANCE). WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT BREEZES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MIN TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH WARMER THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL NIGHTS.
FLOW ALOFT INCREASES TO AROUND 100KT MONDAY AS A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAMS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR SOCAL.
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE AS A ~993MB SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND 700-500MB WINDS INCREASE TO BETWEEN
30 AND 40KT AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
THE LATEST REFS WIND GUST PROBS >40 MPH AVERAGE 30-50% ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT MIXING SO THE
STRONGER WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAX TEMPS ALSO TREND MUCH WARMER OVER
EASTERN NM GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE STILL TRICKY AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE ON PRECIP COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 120KT WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EAST INTO
NM TUESDAY. STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING LIFT WILL HELP
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVER WESTERN NM. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE QPF IS GENERALLY <0.10" IN
THIS AREA WHILE SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A FEW AREAS WITH
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 0.25". IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AGAIN AND SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 50 MPH (WIND ADVISORY) AROUND LINCOLN AND
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON (NBM 75TH TO 90TH
PERCENTILE). MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
PRESSING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A LOT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
AS THE PACIFIC LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM JET THEN ATTEMPTS TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER
LOW WEST OF NM WEDNESDAY WHILE THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OOZES
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW DOWN TO 8,000 FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. THE FRONT WOULD
SERVE AS A MORE WELL-DEFINED FOCUS FOR HIGHER QPF OVER NORTHEAST
NM AND THE NBM CERTAINLY FAVORS THIS AREA FOR >0.25".
WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL DEPEND PARTIALLY ON
HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES DURING THE WEDNESDAY TRANSITION.
THE TREND IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO
SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WITH A 590DM H5 RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE CA COAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL REMAIN LOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSISTENCY
AND AGREEMENT OCCURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR FOG FORMATION IN THE AREA AROUND
ROSWELL, THE ESTANCIA VALLEY, THE GILA REGION, AND NEAR KSRR AFTER
4AM. HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL TURB WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN
NM THRU SUNRISE THEN SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY. A FEW
HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CONT DIVIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON (10-20% CHANCE) THEN MOVE QUICKLY
EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THRU SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10" TO 0.25" OCCURRED AROUND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CATRON, SOCORRO, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH PATCHY AMOUNTS NEAR 0.10" FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE CONT
DIVIDE INTO CIBOLA COUNTY. TODAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST BREEZES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. A COUPLE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NM (10-20% CHANCE) THEN MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE RGV WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY IS STILL THE DAY TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS COINCIDE WITH PATCHY MIN RH VALUES NEAR
15%. THICKER CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
SYSTEM ALONG WITH RECENT RAINFALL, LOWER RFTIS, AND LOWER ERCS WILL
HELP TO DECREASE THE OVERALL RISK. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE BUT THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS AND PERHAPS NEAR THE CONT DIVIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 75 45 73 45 / 5 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 71 34 69 35 / 5 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 69 41 68 40 / 10 20 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 72 38 69 36 / 10 10 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 69 42 66 38 / 20 20 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 73 38 71 40 / 10 20 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 69 42 69 41 / 20 10 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 68 48 71 48 / 30 20 0 10
DATIL........................... 66 43 66 43 / 20 10 0 10
RESERVE......................... 73 40 72 40 / 10 5 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 78 43 78 42 / 5 5 0 30
CHAMA........................... 64 33 62 32 / 10 30 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 47 69 46 / 5 20 5 5
PECOS........................... 68 42 70 41 / 5 10 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 40 65 39 / 10 20 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 56 33 56 33 / 10 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 31 62 29 / 5 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 69 36 70 35 / 5 20 5 5
MORA............................ 67 40 68 38 / 5 10 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 73 43 76 46 / 5 10 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 68 45 70 46 / 5 10 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 43 73 45 / 5 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 51 76 52 / 10 10 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 52 78 51 / 10 10 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 48 80 50 / 10 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 50 78 52 / 10 10 0 5
BELEN........................... 77 45 81 49 / 20 20 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 76 50 80 51 / 10 10 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 45 80 47 / 10 20 0 5
CORRALES........................ 77 50 80 52 / 10 10 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 46 80 49 / 20 20 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 71 50 74 51 / 10 20 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 50 79 52 / 10 10 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 76 51 83 53 / 20 20 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 46 71 46 / 10 10 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 69 47 73 47 / 10 10 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 43 73 45 / 10 10 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 39 75 43 / 10 10 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 43 70 43 / 10 10 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 44 74 44 / 20 20 0 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 45 73 46 / 20 20 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 52 73 51 / 10 10 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 63 49 68 48 / 10 5 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 68 40 70 38 / 5 5 10 5
RATON........................... 72 39 74 41 / 5 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 74 39 75 43 / 5 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 43 72 42 / 5 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 50 80 46 / 5 5 0 5
ROY............................. 73 45 75 47 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 51 84 53 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 74 50 79 51 / 5 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 53 86 52 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 76 51 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 77 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 48 85 54 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 52 88 56 / 5 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 73 49 80 52 / 10 5 0 5
ELK............................. 72 47 78 50 / 5 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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