436
FXUS65 KABQ 071855
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1255 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE WEAK UPPER LOW TURNED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE TROUGH AXIS IS LOCATED FROM ROUGHLY KGUP
TO KROW THIS AFTERNOON. FORCING REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH THIS
FEATURE, BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL TEND TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, WHILE STORMS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, MOST
AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO PICK UP A TENTH OF AN INCH, BUT A LUCKY FEW
COULD SEE A FEW TENTHS TO NEAR ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THESE
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF BUT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH. OTHERWISE,
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE WITH LIGHT
WINDS. STORMS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH ON THURSDAY, WITH
A WEST-TO-EAST TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF NM. THUS,
ANY WEAK FORCING FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THIS AREA, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
INCH DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS WESTERN NM ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND ARGUABLY A VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE, CROSSES THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER NORTHEAST NM WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH. OVERALL THOUGH,
SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF THURSDAY'S READINGS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT HURRICANE RACHEL WILL BE SHEARED
APART AND ABSORBED INTO A PACIFIC LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
SATURDAY. THAT LOW, AND THE MOISTURE REMNANTS OF RACHEL, LOOK TO
SWING INTO SOCAL AND SW AZ SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
PACNW DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEST COAST. THUS, RACHEL'S MOISTURE
REMNANTS LOOK TO STAY WEST OF NM. NONETHELESS, SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER NM WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO WESTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND. PWATS WILL TREND UPWARD
TO AROUND 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD CERTAINLY PICK UP
AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD, THESE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE SPOTTY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF MEXICO TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS ON WHERE IT WILL
GO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
OPERATIONAL MODELS, AI MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS. BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC CONTINUE TO BRING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
NORTHWARD WITH MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO NM MONDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE, IF ANY, INCREASE IN PWATS DURING
THE PERIOD, WHICH SUGGESTS THE REMNANTS WILL BE DIVERTED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE AI MODELS ARE CLOSER TO THIS SOLUTION AS WELL AS
THEY KEEP MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER NM. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED
THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC LOW DIGGING DOWN THE COAST WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
THRU WED TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL NOT ONLY HAVE AN EFFECT ON WHERE THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS GO, BUT THE LOW ITSELF SHOULD BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO NM AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR
CORNERS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30KT.
STORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM MDT WED OCT 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON TAP FOR THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE FOCUSING FURTHER
SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON FRIDAY FOR WESTERN NM EITHER. ALSO ON
FRIDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NE NM IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 MPH
ARE LIKELY. THEREAFTER, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS NM, SETTING UP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THOUGHT MAY SPREAD
TO MOST OTHER AREAS ON SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, ALL EYES ON ARE WHERE
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM GO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE
MOISTURE SHIFTS RIGHT OVER NM, WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE IN STORE
ONCE AGAIN, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY STAY TO THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN
MORE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW STARTING
MONDAY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 80 50 79 / 10 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 42 77 41 75 / 20 5 0 5
CUBA............................ 46 73 46 72 / 10 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 41 77 41 76 / 10 5 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 43 72 44 72 / 10 5 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 42 75 41 75 / 5 5 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 44 74 45 73 / 10 5 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 49 72 49 71 / 5 5 0 5
DATIL........................... 44 70 45 69 / 5 5 0 5
RESERVE......................... 46 79 46 77 / 20 20 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 51 83 52 83 / 20 30 0 5
CHAMA........................... 42 70 42 67 / 20 10 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 71 50 70 / 5 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 46 73 45 72 / 5 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 71 44 69 / 10 5 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 64 34 62 / 10 5 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 69 25 67 / 10 5 0 10
TAOS............................ 40 75 39 72 / 5 5 0 0
MORA............................ 43 71 42 71 / 5 5 0 10
ESPANOLA........................ 49 77 48 77 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 73 48 71 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 76 46 74 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 78 53 78 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 79 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 49 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 77 52 76 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 53 80 53 80 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 73 49 71 / 5 5 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 51 75 51 73 / 5 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 74 48 74 / 0 5 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 76 43 75 / 0 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 73 48 72 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 72 48 71 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 76 54 75 / 5 10 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 49 69 48 68 / 5 10 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 74 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 43 78 43 76 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 78 41 77 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 75 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 52 82 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 81 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 83 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 80 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 75 50 76 / 5 10 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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