811
FXUS65 KABQ 021802 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1102 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
- A STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST CROSSWIND WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER
EAST CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A POTENTIALLY STRONGER
NORTHWEST CROSSWIND WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SLICK THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE FOR THESE ZONES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS, DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL SPEED UP, AND A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NM TODAY, CAUSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO GUST IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE EAST OF THE SANDIA AND
MANZANO MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN
WITH SUNSET, EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
BRISK FLOW ALOFT LINGERS OVERHEAD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
A SOMEWHAT DEEP LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEAR THE CO
BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
NOW DEPICT ACCUMULATING SNOW WRAPPING UP AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PROBABLY LINGER
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRIEFLY FORM A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MAJORITY
DEPICT A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM A FAIRLY
MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING UNTIL
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENABLE THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA MOUNTAINS TO
ACCUMULATE A FEW TO AROUND 4 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF
5 INCHES OF SNOW NEAR RATON. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH SNOW THE EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL RECEIVE. THE NBM ENSEMBLE STILL
DEPICTS A ROUGHLY 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN QUAY AND EASTERN UNION COUNTIES. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WILL BE THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS EVENT, WHERE A FEW TO AROUND 8
INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS. OTHER MOUNTAIN RANGES STILL HAVE A ROUGHLY 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING 2 INCHES OF SNOW. IF THE STORM
SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS EXPECTED, THE EAST CANYON WIND IN
THE SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE
MODEST WITH GUSTS GENERALLY FROM 20-35 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTTOMING OUT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 3-17 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE GUSTY EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, WHEN A DISTURBANCE
EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM
AND PRODUCE NORTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS FROM 30-45 MPH ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CLINES CORNERS TO
AROUND CLOVIS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEFLY COOLER READINGS ON SUNDAY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY CLIMB A FEW TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM, BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF LEE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NM. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 KTS BETWEEN KCVN, KTCC, AND KCQC. WINDS TAPERS OFF AFTER
SUNSET. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST NM JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE THROUGH ALL OF
EASTERN NM BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE BACKDOOR
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING A SOUTHEAST (EAST) WIND TO KSAF
(KABQ) AROUND 15Z. INTRODUCED A LIGHT WIND AT AROUND 10 KTS FOR
NOW, BUT THIS WILL BE REFINED CLOSER. LOW CLOUDS MOVING TO AREAS
ALONG THE CO BORDER BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS ZONE AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AT KFMN AT THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FINALLY, THIS IS THE LAST TAF ISSUANCE FOR KLVS. NO NEW TAF
ISSUANCES OR AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM THIS POINT GOING
FORWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST TUE DEC 2 2025
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 15 PERCENT
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM GRANTS TO MAGDALENA AND IN GUADALUPE
AND QUAY COUNTIES. THANKS TO THE STRONG WINDS FORECAST ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY, LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN GUADALUPE AND QUAY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST
ON SATURDAY, BUT MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 25-40
PERCENT RANGE BY THEN. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS
ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT THERE, THEN
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 29 39 23 / 5 5 40 0
DULCE........................... 43 20 36 19 / 5 10 70 40
CUBA............................ 44 23 38 19 / 0 0 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 47 22 40 14 / 0 0 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 46 24 40 20 / 0 0 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 52 21 44 18 / 0 0 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 51 22 45 21 / 0 0 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 54 30 50 27 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 52 25 46 21 / 0 0 5 20
RESERVE......................... 58 22 52 19 / 0 0 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 61 27 58 22 / 0 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 39 17 32 15 / 5 10 90 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 27 39 23 / 0 0 20 80
PECOS........................... 47 24 38 18 / 0 0 10 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 22 35 18 / 0 0 60 90
RED RIVER....................... 35 16 27 11 / 0 0 80 100
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 10 31 5 / 0 0 70 90
TAOS............................ 45 18 38 18 / 0 0 30 80
MORA............................ 50 21 35 14 / 0 0 30 90
ESPANOLA........................ 50 22 45 23 / 0 0 10 70
SANTA FE........................ 45 27 40 23 / 0 0 10 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 25 43 22 / 0 0 10 80
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 33 47 30 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 28 49 29 / 0 0 5 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 27 51 29 / 0 0 5 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 30 48 29 / 0 0 10 50
BELEN........................... 53 23 53 28 / 0 0 5 30
BERNALILLO...................... 52 27 49 28 / 0 0 10 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 23 52 28 / 0 0 5 40
CORRALES........................ 52 27 49 28 / 0 0 10 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 25 52 29 / 0 0 5 30
PLACITAS........................ 47 30 46 28 / 0 0 5 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 29 48 28 / 0 0 10 50
SOCORRO......................... 58 30 58 30 / 0 0 5 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 26 42 23 / 0 0 5 70
TIJERAS......................... 45 27 45 24 / 0 0 5 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 23 45 21 / 0 0 10 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 18 46 19 / 0 0 10 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 23 40 18 / 0 0 5 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 26 47 23 / 0 0 10 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 26 49 23 / 0 0 5 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 32 55 28 / 0 0 5 30
RUIDOSO......................... 49 33 49 25 / 0 0 0 40
CAPULIN......................... 51 21 30 13 / 0 0 60 80
RATON........................... 53 21 35 15 / 0 0 80 90
SPRINGER........................ 55 22 38 17 / 0 0 30 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 22 38 17 / 0 0 10 90
CLAYTON......................... 55 27 37 20 / 0 0 30 60
ROY............................. 55 25 39 20 / 0 0 20 70
CONCHAS......................... 60 25 46 24 / 0 0 5 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 27 45 24 / 0 0 0 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 26 47 23 / 0 0 0 60
CLOVIS.......................... 59 29 51 25 / 0 0 0 30
PORTALES........................ 59 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 50
ROSWELL......................... 64 31 59 29 / 0 0 0 20
PICACHO......................... 62 32 56 26 / 0 0 0 20
ELK............................. 61 32 59 23 / 0 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR NMZ210-212>216-227>229.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY
FOR NMZ223.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page