267
FXUS65 KABQ 201121 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY NEW SPARK THIS
AFTERNOON FROM INCREDIBLY DRY CONDITIONS AND STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM.
- A MODERATE HEAT RISK REMAINS FOR ALL LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES
THIS WEEKEND WHERE HIGHS WILL FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOME
LOW STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NM CLOSE TO TX BORDER. OTHERWISE, THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR VERY DRY WESTERLIES TO ADVANCE
THE DRYLINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING COMPONENT TO THESE WESTERLIES
ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100F. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FALL
CONSIDERABLY AS WELL, BUT DID MAINTAIN ISOLATED CHANCES FOR A FEW
SPOT STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE. BULK SHEAR
WILL BE THE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TO DEVELOP
OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NM, REACHING 40+ KTS. THE SPC HAS LAID DOWN
A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THAT INCLUDES A MARGINAL AREA CLIPPING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF UNION AND NORTHERN QUAY COUNTIES.
WESTERLIES ADVANCE ALL THE WAY TO AND PAST THE TX BORDER SUNDAY.
LOWERING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO FALL BACK A FEW
DEGREES INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S OVER WESTERN NM, RANGING FROM THE
80S NEAR TAOS TO UPPER 90S IN ABQ TO 100F IN SOCORRO IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AND LOW 100S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ROSWELL WHERE THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 106F. THE OTHER NOTE ABOUT SUNDAY IS HOW
DRY IT WILL BE AND FOR HOW LONG. HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT
MOST AREAS, STAYING THERE 12 TO 20 HOURS FOR MANY LOWER TO MIDDLE
ELEVATION AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
MONDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACKING
SOUTH AND WEST THRU EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN NM FALL BACK 10F TO 15F RELATIVE TO SUNDAY'S
READINGS. LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NM, LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR FORECAST HIGHS FOR MONDAY TO
FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE FAR TOO STABLE BEHIND
THE FRONT TO ALLOW FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, DESPITE THE INFLUX
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FORCING
MECHANISM FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SUPPRESSION BENEATH A BUILDING 597DM H5 HIGH ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WILL LIMIT THESE CHANCES TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS CLOSER
TO THE CO BORDER.
THE SEASON'S FIRST NOTABLE RENDITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER OR NEAR THE NM BOOTHEEL OR SOUTHEASTERN AZ TUESDAY AND
DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING SOME MOISTURE UPWARDS FROM
GULF OF CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A STEADY UPTICK IN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN NM WHERE GUSTY WINDS
AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A MAIN THREAT FROM ANY PASSING STORM.
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ROLLING EASTWARD
WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HIGHS AREAWIDE WILL ALSO
WARM, WITH 100S THROUGH SOUTHERN NM CREEPING NORTHWARD INTO AREAS
LIKE GLENWOOD IN THE SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY, SOCORRO, AND
ROSWELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THRU
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE B/W 15 TO 30 KTS. A FEW
PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR NORTHWESTERN TX
PANHANDLE, TRYING TO REACH KCAO AND KTCC EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR DUE TO VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. A STRAY STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY
CLIP FAR NORTHEASTERN NM, WITH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WESTERN NM: SIGNIFICANT DRYING CONTINUES TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH 6
TO 12 HOURS OF SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY TODAY AND 12 TO 20 HOURS
SUNDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY WESTERLIES BUILD THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE
DEEP LAYER MIXING UPWARDS OF 13K FT (FAIRLY NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE),
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ~5HRS OF RFTI'S REACHING 4-6 ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT. WINDS BACK OFF SUNDAY, LIMITING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE BUILDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF CA AROUND THE SEASON'S
FIRST MONSOON HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHWESTERN NM. THIS WILL YIELD A
THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN
NM BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING EACH AFTERNOON THRU NEXT WEEK.
EASTERN NM: THE DRYLINE ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD TX TODAY, REACHING
ROUGHLY HALF WAY B/W THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND THE TX BORDER. DRY
AND BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL YIELD SHORT-LIVED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS THRU THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON, NOT LONG
ENOUGH HOWEVER TO WARRANT AN EXPANSION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.
A RECENT ESA COPERNICUS SENTINEL-2 SATELLITE PASS REVEALS NDVI
(NORMALIZED DIFFERENCE VEGETATION INDEX) INDICATIVE OF A PATCHWORK
OF VEGETATIVE GREENUP IN THE FINE FUELS THERE, LIKELY FOLLOWING THE
PATCHWORK HIT-AND-MISS RAINFALL PATTERN THERE IN RECENT WEEKS. DRY
WESTERLIES WITH SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY ADVANCE THRU EASTERN NM TO THE
TX LINE SUNDAY, BUT WITH LESSER WIND SPEEDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THRU EASTERN NM AND PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INITIALLY MONDAY, WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S
TO NEAR 100F THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALSO TICK UP TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NM BEING MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS COMPARED TO THE COUNTERPARTS
OVER WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 52 93 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 42 88 42 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 53 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 90 44 90 44 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 86 48 87 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 92 47 91 44 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 49 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 60 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 88 53 89 52 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 91 46 94 46 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 94 52 97 51 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 89 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 53 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 76 42 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 35 80 35 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 88 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 87 51 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 96 55 95 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 89 56 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 53 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 64 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 61 98 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 64 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 100 61 100 57 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 98 63 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 60 98 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 99 63 98 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 62 99 58 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 62 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 63 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 65 102 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 90 58 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 92 58 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 50 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 57 93 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 61 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 66 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 86 63 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 88 53 91 51 / 20 0 0 10
RATON........................... 92 52 93 55 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 94 52 94 55 / 20 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 94 63 95 59 / 20 0 0 20
ROY............................. 92 57 94 59 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 100 64 101 64 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 65 97 61 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 68 102 65 / 10 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 101 63 / 20 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 68 103 64 / 20 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 67 101 63 / 10 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 101 68 106 67 / 10 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 95 64 99 65 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 92 61 96 62 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ101-105-120-121.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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