194
FXUS65 KABQ 240911
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD LOCALLY OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TODAY,
THEN OVER MORE OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WILL PROBABLY REACH
AROUND 60 MPH ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD, AND OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS, WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS AND BLOWING DUST, AS WELL AS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS, WINDS WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG TODAY.
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AROUND 7 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES, IT
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY GUSTY. THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY REACH UP
TO 40 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS, AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
GALLUP, FROM LAS VEGAS TO ROY, AND FROM RUIDOSO TO DUNKEN.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US WILL DEEPEN ON SATURDAY,
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS CENTRAL AND
EAST. THIS SHOULD ENABLE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PROBABLY ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE
HUMIDITIES WILL PLUMMET NEAR 10 PERCENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME
STRONG SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES STEERS THE JETSTREAM OVER NM.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COMMONLY REACH
45 TO 55 MPH; EXCEPT AROUND 60 MPH IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS, WHERE THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CROSS (AND A STOUT LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST).
HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG AND
EAST OF I-25, WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF SUNDAY EVENING. WEST OF
I-25, AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CO BORDER, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
STEER MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS. ONE OF
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
DETERMINING WHERE THE PRECIP WILL BECOME LESS SIGNIFICANT ENABLING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS WILL EXPERIENCE SPOTTY WETTING
RAINFALL, WHILE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE CONVERTED NBM'S
RAIN SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES IN MOST PLACES ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 IN
AN ATTEMPT TO BEGIN DECONFLICTING THE FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE FROM
THE NBM'S BROAD BRUSH ACCUMULATING PRECIP FORECAST.
WITH THE PRECIP MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY,
AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT REACHES WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE
DAY, SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 WILL FALL
A FEW TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY'S READINGS. MEANWHILE,
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WILL EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES ON SUNDAY.
THE STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN US WILL REMAIN ACTIVE DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 45 OR 50 MPH. MODELS DISAGREE ON TRACK, DEPTH, AND TIMING,
BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN NM. SOME
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM THAN OTHERS,
SO THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
30-YEAR AVERAGES ON TUESDAY, READINGS MAY FALL BELOW AVERAGE OVER
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECASTS AREA WITH THE INCREASING PRECIP
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY, THEN OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL PROBABLY REACH AROUND 35 KT OVER MOUNTAIN
PEAKS AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND GALLUP, FROM RUIDOSO TO
DUNKEN, AND FROM LAS VEGAS TO ROY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2026
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS WIND SPEEDS WEAKEN FROM
THURSDAY'S READINGS. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS THEN FORECAST
ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 TONIGHT. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE
WESTERN US WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS EACH DAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 60
MPH EAST OF THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND UP TO 55 MPH
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. ALSO ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A 10-30 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRANTS
TO ALBUQUERQUE, ALBUQUERQUE TO MORIARTY, MORIARTY TO LAS VEGAS,
AND FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON, CREATING A HAZARDOUS MIX OF STRONG
WIND, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, DRY LIGHTNING, AND VERY DRY FUELS WITH
ERCS AROUND THE 80TH PERCENTILE. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATELY HIGH
CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 41 71 45 / 0 0 0 50
DULCE........................... 66 31 67 36 / 0 5 5 60
CUBA............................ 67 37 66 39 / 0 0 5 30
GALLUP.......................... 68 33 66 37 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 65 36 63 37 / 0 0 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 70 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 69 38 67 40 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 72 44 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 69 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 73 36 72 38 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 77 40 76 40 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 60 30 60 34 / 0 5 5 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 44 67 44 / 0 0 0 30
PECOS........................... 66 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 35 64 39 / 0 5 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 56 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 60 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 30
TAOS............................ 67 32 68 36 / 0 5 0 30
MORA............................ 66 37 68 39 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 73 39 74 42 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE........................ 68 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 49 74 49 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 42 78 43 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 79 45 80 44 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 76 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 43 78 42 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 76 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 44 78 43 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 73 48 73 47 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 48 75 48 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 82 48 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 44 69 46 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 70 45 71 46 / 0 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 41 71 43 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 37 73 36 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 43 72 43 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 51 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 48 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 35 69 37 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 71 34 73 37 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 74 36 75 39 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 74 45 77 43 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 73 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 81 44 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 45 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 47 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 83 49 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 48 85 48 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 87 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 49 81 52 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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