494
FXUS65 KABQ 260911
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
- THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- SOME STORMS OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN TODAY,
THEN REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS DISTURBANCES
CLIP NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTER OF THE ~ 597
DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SETTING DAILY MAXIMUM 500
MB HEIGHT RECORDS OVER THE STATE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER NM'S
SOUTHWEST BORDER WITH AZ TODAY, THEN REMAIN THERE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
AREAWIDE TODAY, THEN MAINLY OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
ON THURSDAY, AND AND ALSO INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE A
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. THE
DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST. BULK
SHEAR (0-6 KM) AROUND 20-35 KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY, AND AROUND 20-30 KT ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE AS MUCH AS 2500 J/KG TODAY, AND AS MUCH AS 2200
J/KG THURSDAY, SHOULD ENABLE A FEW STORMS TO TURN SEVERE BOTH
DAYS. IN ADDITION, PWATS ON THE PLAINS NEAR AND ABOVE 1.30" THIS
AFTERNOON, AND NEAR AND ABOVE 1.10" THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WILL
ENABLE SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BOTH TODAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN DRAINAGE PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY
IN UNION COUNTY WHERE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNLIKE TODAY AND
THURSDAY, MODELS DEPICT SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER NORTHERN NM
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH ONLY WEAK DISTURBANCES CLIPPING
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTICK
IN STORM COVERAGE, BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANT OF A DOWNTICK AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. WITH CONTINUED, MOIST, SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW,
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS FARTHER NORTH.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES
EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK, EXCEPT FOR
READINGS A LITTLE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND HIGHS
AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE SET
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD, CENTERING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PERSISTS ON THE WEST COAST, DRAWING A MORE TRADITIONAL
PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY, THEN SPREAD TO INCLUDE EASTERN AREAS AS
WELL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS IS TYPICAL DURING MONSOON SURGES, THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE MOST
STORMS EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY, STORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE AGAIN AS THE UPPER HIGH TRIES TO RECENTER OVER THE
SOUTHERN NM/MEXICO BORDER. THIS WOULD NOT ONLY CUTOFF THE MONSOON
FLOW, BUT MOVE SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST.
WITH THE INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE, THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE A
BREAK FROM NEAR-RECORD WARMTH FOR A WHILE, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL
CLIMB AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER EASTERN AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS, THEN DIMINISH IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE FARTHER EAST. STORM MOTION WILL MOSTLY BE
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-25 KT WITH THE FASTEST
SPEEDS IN THE EAST. SOME STORMS WILL TURN SEVERE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FORMING CLUSTERS AND LINES DURING THE AFTERNOON
THAT TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND LINGER UNTIL MID-EVENING ON THE
PLAINS SOUTH OF I-40. IN ADDITION, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN AREAS
ON WEDNESDAY, MAKING DENSITY ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN TODAY, THEN NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY STRONG GAP WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW
CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM THE EAST AGAIN
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE OVER
WESTERN AREAS, WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND THE COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
GROW TODAY, SO THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 64 96 64 / 10 20 5 5
DULCE........................... 92 50 92 48 / 20 20 20 5
CUBA............................ 90 57 90 57 / 20 20 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 91 56 91 57 / 20 20 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 87 55 87 56 / 30 10 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 90 58 90 58 / 30 20 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 90 59 89 59 / 20 10 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 89 63 88 63 / 30 30 30 40
DATIL........................... 87 59 86 59 / 20 10 30 20
RESERVE......................... 97 60 96 59 / 10 5 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 103 66 102 65 / 10 0 10 20
CHAMA........................... 85 51 85 50 / 30 20 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 60 86 60 / 50 50 40 30
PECOS........................... 87 55 87 55 / 40 60 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 53 84 54 / 50 30 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 74 45 75 45 / 60 40 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 38 80 36 / 70 50 50 20
TAOS............................ 88 53 87 51 / 40 40 30 20
MORA............................ 82 51 83 51 / 60 60 60 30
ESPANOLA........................ 93 60 93 59 / 40 50 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 88 59 87 60 / 30 60 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 58 90 58 / 30 50 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 65 96 67 / 20 40 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 65 96 66 / 20 30 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 65 98 65 / 20 30 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 66 96 67 / 20 30 10 20
BELEN........................... 99 64 97 64 / 20 20 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 98 65 97 65 / 20 40 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 63 98 62 / 20 30 10 20
CORRALES........................ 99 65 98 66 / 20 40 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 64 97 64 / 20 30 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 94 63 93 64 / 20 40 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 65 97 66 / 20 40 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 101 69 100 68 / 20 30 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 59 90 58 / 20 50 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 91 60 91 61 / 20 40 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 57 91 55 / 20 40 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 54 93 53 / 30 40 30 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 55 87 56 / 30 50 30 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 57 91 57 / 20 20 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 58 90 57 / 20 20 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 65 93 64 / 20 10 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 87 58 85 57 / 30 20 40 40
CAPULIN......................... 81 53 82 55 / 60 60 30 40
RATON........................... 84 52 85 53 / 60 50 30 40
SPRINGER........................ 86 53 87 53 / 50 50 40 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 54 84 54 / 50 50 40 50
CLAYTON......................... 86 61 86 61 / 30 40 10 20
ROY............................. 85 57 85 58 / 40 60 20 40
CONCHAS......................... 93 62 93 64 / 20 60 10 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 91 61 90 61 / 30 60 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 93 63 93 63 / 20 50 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 97 65 94 64 / 20 60 20 20
PORTALES........................ 97 65 95 64 / 20 60 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 64 95 64 / 20 50 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 100 69 98 69 / 10 20 5 30
PICACHO......................... 95 62 93 62 / 20 30 20 40
ELK............................. 94 60 92 59 / 30 20 40 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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