584
FXUS65 KABQ 210510 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1010 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
- MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
- WINDIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE WEEKEND, AND RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW MAY COVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO BEGINNING NEXT
WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL LEAD TO CALM
CONDITIONS, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY WESTERLIES WILL RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FOR NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB AROUND 4-13 DEGREES WARMER ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS UNTIL SUNSET THIS EVENING. A NORTHEASTERLY
WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY WEAKENING THE
LEE TROUGH, SO WINDS SHOULD BE LESS GUSTY OVER EASTERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 585DM OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE
THE MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER END
OF GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO FURTHER WARM THE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BE CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. JUST AS CLEAR SKIES WOULD AID IN DIURNAL
HEATING, CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE 20S AND TEENS FOR WESTERN NEW
MEXICO, WHILE EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BIT WARMER.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BY THE WEEKEND.
WITH A 115KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NM AND 40-50
KT MID LEVEL WINDS, MOUNTAIN WAVES LOOK TO CAUSE GUSTY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AS A RESULT,
BUMPED UP WINDS CLOSE TO THE UPPER END OF GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY,
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, A BACKDOOR FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A BRIEF TROUGH CROSSES
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW
STRONG AND HOW FAR WEST THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO. AS A RESULT, WIND GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO PAINT A CLEAR
PICTURE OF THE WIND PATTERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE PULLED BACK ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD FOR
THE FOUR CORNERS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS
IN FROM THE WEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE OVER 9000 FEET, SO
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAIN. RAIN AND SNOWFALL COVERAGE
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A
SYSTEM FROM THE PNW. CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES ABOUT 40% OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING IN A TROUGH THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE GFS BRINGS IN A DEEPER AND WETTER SYSTEM
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH, KEEPING
NEW MEXICO MUCH DRIER. IN ANY CASE, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE
IS WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STREAM EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY, BUT OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS TO CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY ARE FORECAST. A NORTHEASTERLY SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 PM MST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE WEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK ON SATURDAY AROUND 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-
2020 AVERAGES. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BECOME MORE ZONAL. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY IN MANY
LOCATIONS STARTING SATURDAY, THEN BREEZY TO WINDY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF NM. AFTER VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15 PERCENT SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER NORTHERN NM FROM THE WEST WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 19 53 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 13 57 14 61 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 57 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 60 13 64 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 60 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 61 16 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 65 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 25 62 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 71 26 71 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 72 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 14 54 16 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 54 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 15 48 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 10 52 11 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 14 55 17 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 61 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 60 23 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 27 55 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 56 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 58 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 26 59 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 27 60 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 59 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 59 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 27 56 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 57 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 59 21 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 55 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 57 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 59 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 36 63 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 50 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 54 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 52 20 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 57 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 60 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 33 61 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 59 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 34 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 34 63 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 64 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 70 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 35 71 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52
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