741
FXUS65 KABQ 210736
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
136 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ALSO EXISTS ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM.
- AFTER A QUIETER WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHERE SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE ERODING. OTHERWISE,
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS THE EASTERLY CANYON
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECREASED.
AFTER THE LOW CLOUDS ERODE, ENOUGH INSOLATION WILL BE PRESENT TO
DESTABILIZE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
DESPITE LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 19-21Z ALONG THE PSEUDO-
DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RATON, TO VAUGHN, TO EASTERN LINCOLN
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AS THEY MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM WHERE LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE LESS LIKELY TO MIX OUT. AROUND
1500-1800 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 25-30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS IN THIS AREA. NONETHELESS, RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT MORE THAN ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BASED
ON THE LACK OF FORCING TODAY, EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM WHERE
SOME FORCING IS NOTED FROM THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT WILL NOT SURGE WESTWARD AS FAR AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, AND GENERALLY SPEAKING WILL MIX OUT FURTHER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE CAVEAT WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THAT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY.
IT'S LIKELY THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN, AROUND 30KT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A BRIEF BREEZY GAP
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING. LATER SATURDAY,
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PRESENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
STRONG STORM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM,
OTHERWISE, STORMS SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY. THE RIDGE OVER NM
WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY, THUS, STORM COVERAGE WILL
TREND DOWNWARD AND ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE GARDEN
VARIETY. WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING AND CLOUD COVER/STORMS DECREASING,
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD. ALL AREAS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER BEING AT OR BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVER
SOCAL AND AZ. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS NM AND
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NM
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORING
NEARLY ANY LOCATION. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHETHER IT SHARPENS OR NOT,
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN ADVECTING INTO EASTERN NM
AND THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY THERE WAS AND HOW
MUCH CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE STATE FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. THUS, ISOLATED
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SCT-BKN MIX OF MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO FILL IN SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NM BEFORE ERODING
THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 15-16Z. ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM BTW 19Z
AND 21Z AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS BORDER THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A FEW
STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP, WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS. THOUGH ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM, MOST STORMS WILL HAVE EXITED THE STATE
BY 02Z FRI. THEREAFTER, SCT LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RATHER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH AROUND EASTERN
NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS EXPECTED.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN NM, WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON. TODAY AND FRIDAY
WILL SEE THE LONGEST DURATION (UP TO 10 HOURS) AND MOST
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SINGLE DIGIT RH. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL
BE RATHER LIGHT. BY MONDAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES NM. THE TROUGH WILL
CROSS NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST. WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO AT LEAST WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH LIKELY, BUT A FEW STORMS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 75 32 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 75 41 76 43 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 75 37 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 72 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 39 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 74 42 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 76 49 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 72 44 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 79 38 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 83 43 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 69 34 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 49 75 52 / 0 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 74 42 76 43 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 41 73 43 / 10 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 61 34 63 36 / 10 0 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 29 69 31 / 10 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 75 35 77 39 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 71 39 73 42 / 10 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 81 43 82 48 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 75 47 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 81 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 83 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 84 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 84 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 85 46 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 85 50 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 84 47 86 51 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 79 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 86 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 48 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 77 48 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 39 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 45 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 79 53 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 51 75 51 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 38 65 38 / 50 10 40 50
RATON........................... 72 39 72 40 / 40 5 40 60
SPRINGER........................ 74 39 75 42 / 50 5 30 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 41 75 44 / 10 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 72 47 71 45 / 60 20 10 30
ROY............................. 73 43 74 45 / 40 5 20 50
CONCHAS......................... 82 47 82 49 / 30 5 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 46 81 47 / 20 5 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 50 83 50 / 30 5 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 80 51 86 52 / 30 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 81 51 87 51 / 30 5 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 49 86 50 / 20 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 87 54 91 56 / 20 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 52 84 51 / 20 0 5 0
ELK............................. 81 50 83 49 / 5 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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