930
FXUS65 KABQ 191120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
- A LATE SPRING FREEZE IS LIKELY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EXPOSED
PLUMBING AND EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- EVAPORATING SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, PATCHY BLOWING DUST,
AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
IT IS A CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. EAST
TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW IS RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS UP 30 MPH
EAR CANYON OPENINGS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RGV. THESE WINDS
SHOULD TAPER OFF BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BY
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST DUE TO THE MODERATING AIRMASS. THE
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS AND
MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND AROUND TO JUST AFTER THEIR LAST AVERAGE FREEZE DATE, A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM FOR THESE ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ESTANCIA VALLEY, BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND THEIR AVERAGE FREEZE DATE IN EARLY TO MID
MAY STUCK WITH THE REASONING OF THE DAY SHIFT AND DECIDED TO NOT
ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY. SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH SURFACE AND MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN CA WILL BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO SOUTHERN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, DRY SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
FIRE SPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY EVENING, SO A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PART OF THE STATE.
CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM, AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE STATE. COME
MONDAY MORNING PWATS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 0.4 TO 0.75 FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE EAST CENTRAL SOUTHEAST PLAINS SEEING THE HIGHER END
OF THIS RANGE. DRIER PWATS OF 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES WILL LINGER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM. THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MIX OF WET AND DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOSTLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. WETTER ACTIVITY
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.25 INCHES. DRIER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME WITH THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OF
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH, PATCHY BLOWING DUST AND DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FUTURE FIRE STARTS LATER IN
THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
WET/DRY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM MONDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT FOR MOST, EXCEPT FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
DUE TO LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO THE STATE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AHEAD OF
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. A
FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN DUE TO SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY. RESULTING IN MUCH DRIER
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEST WINDS THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT, A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXIST FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM, LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCED DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES ON MONDAY WILL BE POTENTIAL BREEDING GROUNDS FOR
FIRE STARTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH DEEP DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING
INTO 500 TO 700 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 55 KTS AT THE BASE OF THE LOW, MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
AND AROUND GALLUP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IT WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH EASTERN NM. LONGWAVE
TROUGHING REMAINS WEST OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO QUICKLY MIX OUT THE
BACKDOOR FRONT FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON FRIDAY-SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN TO NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO AN POTENTIAL APPROACHING NEW UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CA AMONG THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE AVERAGE BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
COOLING DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT AND ACROSS EASTERN NM
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM. BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEGINNING MID MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM EXPANDING SOUTH TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM BY THE
AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
AROUND KCAO. WINDS TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS. LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY
AND CAPROCK SOUTH AND EAST OF KROW AROUND 06Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF KROW AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST NM TODAY AND
POTENTIALLY MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY DUE TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. ELEVATED GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY WILL
RESULT IN A MIX OF SCATTERED DRY AND WET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST AREAS, OUTSIDE OF FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY.
WETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. DRY LIGHTNING ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
COULD RESULT IN FUTURE FIRE STARTS. WARMER WITH LIGHT SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS AN
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THESE STRONGER WINDS COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW TEENS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY RESULTING
IN GUSTY WEST WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AMONG SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
RESULTING IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD RETURN TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 73 45 76 44 / 0 0 10 5
DULCE........................... 70 29 73 30 / 0 0 10 5
CUBA............................ 67 38 69 39 / 0 0 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 73 38 72 35 / 0 5 30 10
EL MORRO........................ 69 40 67 39 / 0 5 40 20
GRANTS.......................... 71 36 72 36 / 0 5 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 70 41 69 39 / 5 10 50 10
MAGDALENA....................... 66 44 69 46 / 0 10 50 20
DATIL........................... 65 41 66 41 / 5 10 60 20
RESERVE......................... 75 38 75 37 / 5 10 50 5
GLENWOOD........................ 78 41 80 42 / 10 10 40 5
CHAMA........................... 62 31 66 34 / 0 0 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 44 68 45 / 0 0 20 20
PECOS........................... 67 37 69 40 / 0 0 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 38 68 39 / 0 0 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 55 32 59 34 / 0 0 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 24 65 26 / 0 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 67 30 72 33 / 0 0 20 10
MORA............................ 67 34 69 37 / 0 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 73 39 76 40 / 0 0 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 67 43 69 45 / 0 0 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 41 72 42 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 50 74 51 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 48 75 47 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 47 78 46 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 49 76 49 / 0 5 20 10
BELEN........................... 75 44 77 42 / 0 10 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 75 46 77 47 / 0 5 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 44 77 42 / 0 10 30 20
CORRALES........................ 75 47 77 47 / 0 5 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 45 77 43 / 0 10 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 71 48 72 49 / 0 5 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 48 76 48 / 0 5 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 75 49 78 48 / 0 20 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 44 69 45 / 0 5 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 69 45 69 46 / 0 10 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 39 71 40 / 0 5 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 34 72 34 / 0 5 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 39 67 41 / 0 0 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 41 70 42 / 0 10 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 41 69 42 / 0 20 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 44 72 47 / 0 20 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 63 41 66 44 / 0 20 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 64 33 70 36 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 70 31 73 35 / 0 0 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 71 32 75 35 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 36 69 39 / 0 0 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 69 42 75 44 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 65 36 72 40 / 0 0 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 73 41 78 44 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 39 72 42 / 0 0 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 42 77 47 / 0 0 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 71 43 72 48 / 0 0 30 20
PORTALES........................ 72 42 72 47 / 0 5 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 41 74 45 / 0 0 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 46 74 49 / 0 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 67 41 72 44 / 0 20 50 20
ELK............................. 66 38 72 41 / 5 20 40 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ233-235>237.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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