911
FXUS65 KABQ 192330 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2018
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY GAP
WINDS INTO THE KABQ LATER THIS EVENING, STARTING ~02Z AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHT WELL INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS.
BREEZY GUSTS AT KLVS AND KGUP ARE EXPECTED TO CALM AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES.
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PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2018
SYNOPSIS
AN EAST WIND WILL RETURN THIS EVENING WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. OTHERWISE, A QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000
FEET. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD 15 TO 25 DEGREES SINCE
YESTERDAY. THIS IS DESPITE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING. A FEW BREEZES ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF
THE GAPS, BUT NOTHING AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM TODAY THANKS TO CONTINUED COOL
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALI. MOISTURE THAT IS POOLING
SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW EVER-SO-SLOWLY SHIFTS INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA, BUT THE BETTER PULL
OF MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL WILL SHIFT TOWARD NM ON
MONDAY, INITIALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KICK OFF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A GREAT
SHOT AT RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS
WILL BE A MUCH WARMER SYSTEM THAN THE LAST, SO SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE HIGH, GENERALLY AOA 10KFT.
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH LIKELY NOT AS NUMEROUS. A FINAL TROUGH MAY SWING
THROUGH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE BY THEN SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL.
34
FIRE WEATHER
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S VERY HIGH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE LOWERING
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS IS STILL RATHER HIGH AND RANGES FROM 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AT
1 PM MDT. WINDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS SO FAR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE BACKDOOR
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, EASTERLY GAP
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA. GAP WINDS IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE AREA WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH BEGINNING IN THE
MID EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, MAINLY THROUGH PASSES AND GAPS. DRIER AIR FILTERING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH RECOVERY RANGING FROM GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST
OF CENTRAL NM AND EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX INTO EASTERN NM. THIS
GRADIENT WILL GENERATE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NM WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY
FAIR, WHILE VENTILATION RATES ELSEWHERE WILL BE POOR ON SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURDAY WILL FALL SLIGHTLY, BUT MINIMUM
VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY, LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
AND SOUTHWEST TX WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND THE
EASTERN PLAINS, EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. A JET MAXIMUM
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEAST NM IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM ON SUNDAY WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AND UP TO AROUND 0.05 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION SUNDAY, EXCEPT FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM A DRIER TO WETTER WEATHER
PATTERN. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON. A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE REST OF THE
REGION WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE. VENTILATION RATES ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY POOR WITH SMALL
AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE
FAIR CATEGORY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES
OF WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY
ABOVE 10,000 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR
OVER MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY
HIGH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
28
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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