459
FXUS65 KABQ 041917
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
117 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS,
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY CREATE SLICK TRAVEL AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS GETTING PULLED NORTHEAST
INTO THE DESERT SW AND NM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW,
CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SOCAL PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS TAP IS ALREADY RESULTING IN THICKENING
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AND IS KEEPING A LID ON DAYTIME
MIXING. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP-UP OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD LAS VEGAS, NV AND SHOWERS BREAK-OUT OVER AZ
AND WESTERN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EAST ON TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CREEPS INTO NORTHEAST NM.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM ON TUESDAY,
WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SMALL HAIL. A
NEAR-SATURATED FRONTAL LAYER ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE JET STREAM IS STILL FORECAST TO ORIENT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND REACH UP TO 125KTS AT 300MB,
PRODUCING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL NM. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SW CHAVES COUNTY
AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE EASTERN LINCOLN CO. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL TREND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR ACROSS NORTHERN
NM NEAR THE CO BORDER AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL,
BRINGING SNOW DOWN TO NEAR 8KFT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BEGIN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
A POTENT TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A MORE
IMPRESSIVE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NM AND PUSHING THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL ANOTHER 500FT OR SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THE NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE
FOCUS ARE BEING THE PEAKS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
TO RATON PASS. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%)
CHANCE FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FRONT
DOOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING BRISK CONDITIONS TO THE
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE METROS AROUND SUNSET. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH HIGHS FORECAST BELOW
AVERAGE AREAWIDE AND 20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM. A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND A FREEZE
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24HRS FOR LOCALES THAT ARE CLOSE
TO THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE. THE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST OUT
OF NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH WARMING AND DRYING
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE A
WEAK BAJA LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND UNDER INCREASING
WNW FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
LOWERING OF VFR CIGS AND INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NM WITH
THE ONSET OF LIGHT RAIN. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT MON MAY 4 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP-UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT HUMIDITY WILL NOT REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD AND ERCS ARE AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE. GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS
WESTERN NM. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRYING
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY, WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 64 39 60 / 5 50 40 40
DULCE........................... 39 59 33 55 / 5 40 60 70
CUBA............................ 41 57 34 55 / 20 60 50 50
GALLUP.......................... 39 58 33 59 / 30 60 30 40
EL MORRO........................ 40 56 34 59 / 30 60 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 41 60 35 63 / 20 60 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 43 60 33 63 / 40 60 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 47 65 39 65 / 20 40 10 5
DATIL........................... 43 60 35 61 / 30 60 10 10
RESERVE......................... 41 61 31 67 / 40 60 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 41 65 35 70 / 50 70 10 5
CHAMA........................... 35 54 31 48 / 5 50 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 59 41 56 / 10 50 50 50
PECOS........................... 44 60 35 57 / 10 40 40 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 58 36 48 / 5 50 60 80
RED RIVER....................... 36 49 30 38 / 5 50 70 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 55 29 45 / 5 50 60 80
TAOS............................ 40 61 35 54 / 5 40 50 70
MORA............................ 43 59 35 54 / 5 40 40 70
ESPANOLA........................ 47 65 40 63 / 10 40 50 40
SANTA FE........................ 47 60 39 60 / 10 50 50 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 63 37 62 / 10 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 63 45 66 / 20 50 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 66 44 68 / 20 40 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 68 41 70 / 20 40 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 66 43 67 / 20 50 30 20
BELEN........................... 51 70 40 72 / 20 40 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 52 67 43 67 / 20 50 30 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 49 68 39 71 / 20 40 20 20
CORRALES........................ 52 67 42 68 / 20 50 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 69 40 71 / 20 40 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 54 64 44 64 / 20 50 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 66 44 67 / 20 50 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 54 73 44 73 / 20 30 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 59 40 59 / 20 50 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 50 61 41 62 / 20 50 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 62 38 62 / 20 40 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 64 32 64 / 20 40 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 61 35 58 / 10 30 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 47 63 37 63 / 20 30 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 64 38 64 / 30 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 68 46 67 / 20 20 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 52 64 42 61 / 20 20 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 40 57 31 38 / 0 60 80 80
RATON........................... 42 63 36 44 / 0 50 80 80
SPRINGER........................ 45 66 37 51 / 0 40 50 80
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 63 37 56 / 0 30 20 60
CLAYTON......................... 48 59 34 44 / 0 30 70 70
ROY............................. 49 66 37 53 / 0 30 20 70
CONCHAS......................... 56 74 43 66 / 0 20 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 73 44 67 / 0 10 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 76 43 65 / 0 10 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 56 79 47 73 / 0 5 5 5
PORTALES........................ 58 80 48 74 / 0 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 79 46 74 / 0 5 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 58 83 51 80 / 5 5 0 5
PICACHO......................... 52 73 45 74 / 10 10 0 5
ELK............................. 51 70 43 70 / 5 10 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ226-240.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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