263
FXUS65 KABQ 271931
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
131 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 127 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS FOR
SENSITIVE GROUPS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IN FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST OUT AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE GETS MIXED
OUT. WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON AS A 700MB JET PUSHES
INTO WESTERN NM. 700MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE SO GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WILL BE COMMONPLACE
THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AN ISOLATED GUSTY VIRGA SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED, THE AMPLE DCAPE AT THE SURFACE
COULD BRING VERY LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY.
THE JET MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT SO WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ELSEWHERE. WINDS INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING
SUNDAY AREAWIDE, WITH PEAK GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR, IF NOT SLIGHTLY
HIGHER, COMPARED TO TODAY'S GUSTS. IT WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AS
THE MAIN DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
INTO WESTERN NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR BOTH
SATURDAY AND MONDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IN THE
WEST AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A SHORTWAVE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BREAK OFF MONDAY AS THE BROADER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WEAKER SO
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS TREND STRONGER AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKS
EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SW. THE VEERING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WITH LOW CHANCE POPS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO I-40 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE SW FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND WESTWARD AS A RESULT, KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE AREA SOUTH OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-25.
WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD, INCREASING HUMIDITY AND BRINGING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. STORM CHANCES MAY FINALLY EXTEND INTO CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SW
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FOCUSING OVER NORTHWEST NM WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) OF A FEW ISOLATED,
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CHANCE (10-20%) OF STORMS IN FAR SE NM.
A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
STRONGER WINDS IN AND AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS WILL CREATE
WIDESPREAD LLWS AROUND THE STATE, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY TO REACH
THE 30 KNOT CRITERIA TO BE INCLUDED AT ANY TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND,
CREATING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WETTING
RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY CREATE TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENTS TO
FUEL DRYNESS TODAY, BUT THESE IMPROVEMENTS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AFTER
A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE SIMILAR BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A
TAD DRIER WITH HUMIDITIES GENERALLY 2 TO 4% LOWER THAN SATURDAY.
VERY ISOLATED GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (10-20% IN MOST AREAS). WINDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS, WITH CRITICAL COVERAGE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST.
GIVEN THE RFTI VALUES OF 4 TO 7 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THE SAME AREA WILL BE A CANDIDATE FOR ANOTHER WATCH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. STORM
CHANCES WILL FAVOR EASTERN NM, WITH COVERAGE LIKELY EXTENDING
WESTWARD NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 91 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 86 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 87 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 53 86 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 56 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 54 89 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 93 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 86 59 83 / 0 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 56 88 55 85 / 0 10 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 83 52 80 / 0 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 73 45 70 / 0 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 78 43 76 / 0 10 10 0
TAOS............................ 53 86 52 83 / 0 10 5 0
MORA............................ 54 84 53 82 / 0 10 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 93 59 90 / 0 10 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 88 58 84 / 0 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 91 57 88 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 94 62 91 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 94 64 92 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 96 63 94 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 95 63 92 / 0 0 5 5
BELEN........................... 63 97 62 95 / 0 5 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 63 95 63 93 / 0 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 95 61 93 / 0 5 5 10
CORRALES........................ 64 95 63 93 / 0 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 96 61 94 / 0 5 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 91 63 89 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 94 64 91 / 0 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 99 66 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 88 58 85 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 90 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 93 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 62 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 57 89 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 55 92 55 90 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 58 94 56 92 / 0 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 88 58 86 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 65 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 62 92 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 101 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 97 66 95 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 102 70 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 98 68 96 / 10 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 70 101 69 98 / 10 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 103 71 100 / 10 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 68 96 67 94 / 0 5 5 5
ELK............................. 65 91 63 89 / 0 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-
109-120-121-123-125.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ101-104-
105-109-120-121-123-125.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ202-205-210-216.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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