153
FXUS65 KABQ 181858
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1258 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER REMAINS TODAY THRU TUESDAY WITH SOME
SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM
WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY, PEAKING IN INTENSITY THURSDAY. THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY FOR WESTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW, CENTERED NEAR YUMA, AZ, IS BRINGING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE STATE
TODAY. ONE PARTICULAR MESOSCALE FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS THIS
HOUR. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS ARE SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THE CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS AND A FEW STRAY AND WAYWARD SHOWERS TRYING TO ENTER
WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, OVERALL PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TREND A STEP
WARMER COMPARED TO THIS PAST MORNINGS, WITH WEAKER BUT STILL
PRESENT VALLEY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS FAVORED TO SET UP AGAIN.
MONDAY STARTS THE WORK WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WEAKENING AND OPENING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TAPPING INTO MODEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE,
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TUESDAY CONTINUES AN UPWARD TREK IN PW'S TO ~0.75", BUT OVERALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND LOWER THANKS TO AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN, MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO 70S, WITH NEAR 80F ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
BECOMES SHARPLY AMPLIFIED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A 557-560DM H5 CLOSED
LOW DIGGING DOWN THE CA COASTLINE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STANDING UP FURTHER OVER EASTERN NM AND THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THIS UPCOMING WET PERIOD IS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY PERIOD OCCURRING
THURSDAY FOCUSED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NM. THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES THAT THE H5
LOW WILL OPEN AND COME ASHORE SOCAL THURSDAY WITH A VORTMAX
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LOW'S SOUTHEASTERLY FLANK OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BRINGING FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FLOWING
SW-NE THROUGH AZ AND WESTERN NM THRU THE DAY. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY SHORT
DURATION PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MAIN VORTMAX AND AREA OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND ASCENT EJECTS QUICKLY ALONG THE UT/CO
BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH REMNANT SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MAIN UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THIS EVENT STILL LAY WITH JUST HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE TO INCREASE RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THERE
IS FAIR AGREEMENT THAT PW'S CLIMB TO THE 0.90" TO 1.10" RANGE AT
ABQ BY THURSDAY, WHICH WOULD LIKELY SET DAILY RECORDS FOR MID-TO-
LATE OCTOBER. HOWEVER, THE LATEST RUN OF THE NBM SHOWS A 0.50" TO
2.00" RANGE IN 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. MUCH OF THIS DISPARITY IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL IN THE END DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
THERE WILL BE, IN TURN LIKELY DEPENDENT ON MID- TO-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WELL DEFINED TAP OF MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE EPAC AND OVER AZ/NM. THIS FEATURE WOULD
LIKELY PRODUCE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER, LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOWERING INSTABILITY PARAMETERS. THUS, THE MID RANGE SOLUTIONS
FOR 0.25" TO 0.75" OF EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST LOWER AND MIDDLE ELEVATION AREAS OF
WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND NORTHERN NM WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.50" TO
2.00" IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS THURSDAY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM
AND PERHAPS FURTHER INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM SOCORRO
TO ABQ TO SANTA FE. THUS, THE WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, FORECAST CERTAINTY TANKS FURTHER WITH DIVERGING
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A LAGGING UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NM AND
AZ WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE WET PATTERN, AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS BACK FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. A BATCH OF
SHOWERS IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS NORTHWARD THRU CENTRAL NM OVER
K0E0 THIS HOUR, AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO AT KSAF FOR THIS FEATURE
AS IT SKIRTS JUST TO THAT TERMINAL'S EAST THRU 20Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ENTERING WESTERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT MOST
AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. POOR VENTILATION
REMAINS THE RULE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK MIXING. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL REACH PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE PICKS UP WEDNESDAY THRU
WESTERN NM, PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD WETTING THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 69 48 70 / 10 10 20 10
DULCE........................... 37 67 40 66 / 5 10 50 50
CUBA............................ 43 66 45 67 / 5 20 30 20
GALLUP.......................... 43 67 44 69 / 20 20 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 41 65 43 68 / 30 50 40 20
GRANTS.......................... 43 68 45 70 / 30 50 40 10
QUEMADO......................... 43 68 44 70 / 20 40 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 46 66 48 69 / 10 40 40 30
DATIL........................... 42 64 45 67 / 20 60 40 20
RESERVE......................... 43 71 46 72 / 10 50 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 45 75 49 77 / 10 60 70 40
CHAMA........................... 39 60 40 59 / 0 10 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 44 66 46 66 / 0 20 30 30
PECOS........................... 41 69 43 68 / 0 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 64 43 63 / 0 10 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 56 36 56 / 0 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 61 27 61 / 0 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 38 67 41 66 / 0 10 10 20
MORA............................ 39 67 40 68 / 0 10 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 42 73 46 73 / 0 10 30 30
SANTA FE........................ 44 68 47 68 / 0 10 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 69 47 70 / 0 10 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 73 54 75 / 5 20 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 73 52 75 / 5 20 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 75 50 77 / 5 20 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 73 53 75 / 5 20 40 20
BELEN........................... 43 73 49 77 / 10 20 50 10
BERNALILLO...................... 48 75 51 76 / 5 20 30 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 74 48 77 / 5 20 50 10
CORRALES........................ 48 75 51 77 / 5 20 40 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 74 49 77 / 5 20 50 10
PLACITAS........................ 49 72 52 73 / 0 20 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 73 52 75 / 5 20 40 30
SOCORRO......................... 51 75 54 79 / 10 30 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 67 47 68 / 0 20 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 46 69 49 70 / 0 20 40 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 71 45 72 / 0 20 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 72 43 74 / 0 20 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 68 47 69 / 0 20 40 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 69 46 71 / 0 20 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 68 47 70 / 0 20 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 72 52 75 / 0 40 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 46 68 47 70 / 0 50 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 42 67 44 68 / 0 0 5 10
RATON........................... 38 71 41 72 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 37 72 42 74 / 0 0 5 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 69 44 69 / 0 5 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 48 71 50 74 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 41 71 46 72 / 0 0 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 47 78 51 79 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 77 49 75 / 0 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 79 52 80 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 48 78 50 78 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 47 78 50 78 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 76 49 77 / 0 5 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 48 77 51 80 / 0 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 48 75 49 77 / 0 30 20 10
ELK............................. 48 76 49 78 / 0 30 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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