832
FXUS65 KABQ 170741
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
141 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM SATURDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD, SOAKING RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
IT WILL BE THE CHILLEST MORNING OF THE SEASON THUS FAR IN MOST
AREAS, WITH CRISP AND COOL CONDITIONS. FOR MANY AREAS IT WILL BE THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL, ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, PUSHING BACK THE FIRST FREEZE
POTENTIALLY A WEEK OR MORE IN SOME CASES. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
CHANGES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO AS MUCH AS 40 DEGREES. DESPITE
THIS, HIGHS WILL STILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. THIS ALONG WITH VEERING FLOW WILL SLOWLY DRAW A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL NOT BE AS COLD TONIGHT AS A RESULT, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND BASINS. NONETHELESS, IT
WILL STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCALES.
THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY HANGING OUT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
OPEN AND EJECT INLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, PUSHING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERLAP WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NM WHERE RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION COULD SPARK A STORM OR TWO, BUT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH IN ALL AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
THE OPEN WAVE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS
ON MONDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TO DRAW MORE PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NM MONDAY, PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TUESDAY, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
WILL PUSH DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH PWATS
RISING WELL OVER 200% OF NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, MODEL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE
DEPTH/SPEED OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH IS QUITE GOOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK AS IT EJECTS
INLAND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE, POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, WHILE THE GEPS AND ENS
MEANS SHOW A DEEPER, SLOWER-MOVING TROUGH. THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WOULD BE WETTER FOR NEW MEXICO, ALTHOUGH ALL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM HAVE TRENDED
HIGHER, WITH 50TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS FOR THE 48-HOUR PERIOD
STRETCHING FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING NOW SHOWING
0.5-1.5" IN MOST AREAS, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS FOR THE SAME PERIOD SHOW 2-3"
ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM, SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WHERE HEAVIER STORMS
DEVELOP. NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THIS
STORM SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR SNOW OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN
PEAKS. ANOTHER HAZARD TO MONITOR WITH THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS
THE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY
THE INCOMING TROUGH. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, WITH
THE LREF MEAN SHOWING ONLY 200-300 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS HIGH BY THE WEEKEND, WITH SOLUTIONS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY HOW THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THAT BEING SAID, DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO INTRUDE FROM THE WEST
WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST BREEZE PERSISTS IN A FEW AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM, BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WEAKER OVERNIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY, WITH A LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZE IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS (AND POTENTIALLY AN
ISOLATED STORM) ACROSS WESTERN NM SUNDAY AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MID-WEEK AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY ACCOMPANY THIS WETTER TREND AS A WARM, PACIFIC AIRMASS IS
PUSHED INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD
SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE POOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, OUTSIDE OF
POCKETS OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 40 63 46 / 0 0 10 20
DULCE........................... 67 32 64 34 / 0 0 10 20
CUBA............................ 62 38 61 42 / 0 0 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 65 36 64 40 / 0 5 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 61 36 64 40 / 0 5 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 60 33 65 41 / 0 0 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 64 35 67 40 / 0 10 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 57 38 63 44 / 0 0 10 5
DATIL........................... 58 34 63 41 / 0 5 20 20
RESERVE......................... 68 37 69 41 / 0 5 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 69 43 71 46 / 0 5 20 30
CHAMA........................... 61 37 60 39 / 0 0 5 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 42 61 44 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 64 37 65 41 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 57 26 57 33 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 16 62 25 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 63 26 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 64 31 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 67 35 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 34 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 32 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 41 68 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 41 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 64 36 68 43 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 39 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 36 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 40 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 37 68 43 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 42 67 47 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 40 69 46 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 36 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 38 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 26 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 31 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 33 63 41 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 33 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 35 64 46 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 57 35 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 33 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 66 28 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 27 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 31 68 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 39 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 61 33 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 66 38 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 36 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 37 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 36 68 43 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 63 34 68 42 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 34 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 35 68 44 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 60 35 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 35 70 44 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ201-217>220-
223>225-228-230>241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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