150
FXUS65 KABQ 280738
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
138 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY AND ACROSS
EASTERN NM FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SHOULD
BE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GRANTS, NM. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER EASTERN CO AND NM. STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY, LIKELY SLOW AND ERRATIC
ACROSS THE WEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 MPH ACROSS THE
EAST. STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN, BUT
SHOULD DO SO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
TODAY OWNING TO WEAKER SHEAR AND LESS INSTABILITY, BUT A BRIEF
STRONG STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ADDITIONALLY, ALL STORMS
TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. PWATS DO CLIMB A
BIT TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NM, AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY,
MOST CAMS SHOW STORMS AROUND THE RUIDOSO AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHETHER THE BURN SCARS WILL
TAKE A DIRECT HIT. REGARDLESS, THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY TODAY. ALL-IN-ALL, WILL BE LOOKING FOR MORE STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY AND LESS ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH EXPANDS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE CENTER
WILL BE APPROXIMATELY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT WILL BE
ELONGATED FROM NEAR EL PASO TO EASTERN OK. AN APPROACHING TROUGH
OVER CA COMBINED WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL ALLOW A
TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO DEVELOP OVER AZ AND WESTERN
NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR OR JUST OVER AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NM. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST,
WHILE CONTINUING TO DWINDLE ACROSS THE EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING. OUTFLOWS
FROM THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST MAY PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY KICK UP
DUST, OR HOPEFULLY, SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS, INCLUDING AROUND ABQ.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK UPWARD OVER EASTERN NM SATURDAY, WITH
A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND WILL REMAIN
EAST OF NM ON MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NM EACH AFTERNOON. PWATS WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE ONE INCH, SO A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS OF 10-20 MPH TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE FLOODING THREAT, UNLESS
REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION FALL OVER THE SAME AREA. MUCH
LIKE SATURDAY, OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND/OR A FEW
STORMS. MEANWHILE, THE EAST WILL REMAIN HOT, WITH MORE AND MORE
LOCATIONS LIKELY TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK IN THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND AI MODELS SUGGEST A NEW UPPER HIGH WILL
DEVELOP NEAR EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE
MONSOON PLUME, THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. BUT OVERALL, STORMS SHOULDN'T BE AS ROBUST,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM, AS THEY WERE SAT-MON. THE HIGH MAY
SHIFT NORTHWARD, MORE SQUARELY OVER NM ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE IT WILL MEANDER TO THEREAFTER. FOR
NOW, A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL NM WITH HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 40KT.
ELSEWHERE, MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS ENDED, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST. THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z FRIDAY
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTH. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS MAY OCCUR IN HEAVY RAIN. MORE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NM THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY,
BUT FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. MOST STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 06Z SAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
WESTERN NM THROUGH MONDAY AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
WETTING RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
EASTERN NM WILL BE HOT, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND THE HOT AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM THE
WEST, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, SOME DUST AND A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS. ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY CONTINUE TO START NEW FIRES IN
POCKETS OF DRY FUELS. STARTING TUESDAY, THE MONSOON PLUME OF
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE DISRUPTED AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 66 91 62 / 5 10 20 40
DULCE........................... 91 51 88 50 / 10 10 20 50
CUBA............................ 89 60 87 57 / 10 20 30 60
GALLUP.......................... 92 58 89 54 / 10 20 40 60
EL MORRO........................ 88 57 85 54 / 20 20 60 60
GRANTS.......................... 91 59 88 56 / 20 20 50 50
QUEMADO......................... 88 59 86 57 / 30 30 50 50
MAGDALENA....................... 88 64 87 63 / 30 20 40 30
DATIL........................... 86 58 84 57 / 40 30 60 30
RESERVE......................... 93 57 91 58 / 40 30 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 97 62 95 63 / 40 30 20 20
CHAMA........................... 84 54 82 51 / 20 10 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 63 86 61 / 30 20 40 40
PECOS........................... 87 59 88 59 / 20 20 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 57 85 56 / 20 20 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 75 49 76 48 / 20 20 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 43 81 43 / 30 20 30 20
TAOS............................ 89 56 89 55 / 20 20 20 20
MORA............................ 84 55 85 55 / 30 20 40 30
ESPANOLA........................ 94 63 93 61 / 10 20 20 40
SANTA FE........................ 88 63 88 63 / 10 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 61 91 61 / 10 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 70 94 68 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 68 94 66 / 10 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 67 96 65 / 5 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 70 95 68 / 10 20 20 40
BELEN........................... 97 66 96 64 / 5 20 20 30
BERNALILLO...................... 96 68 96 67 / 10 20 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 97 65 96 63 / 5 20 20 30
CORRALES........................ 97 69 96 67 / 10 20 20 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 67 96 65 / 5 20 20 30
PLACITAS........................ 93 68 93 66 / 10 20 20 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 69 95 67 / 10 20 20 40
SOCORRO......................... 98 70 97 69 / 10 20 20 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 63 88 61 / 10 20 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 90 64 90 63 / 10 20 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 60 91 59 / 10 30 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 57 92 56 / 10 30 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 61 88 60 / 20 30 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 89 60 90 59 / 20 30 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 60 90 59 / 20 30 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 64 91 65 / 20 20 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 82 58 83 59 / 50 20 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 86 58 89 58 / 20 30 20 20
RATON........................... 90 54 92 55 / 20 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 92 56 94 56 / 20 20 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 56 89 57 / 20 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 91 68 97 69 / 5 20 10 10
ROY............................. 89 62 93 62 / 10 30 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 97 68 101 70 / 5 20 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 66 98 67 / 10 20 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 69 101 71 / 5 10 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 94 68 98 69 / 10 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 68 99 69 / 10 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 69 100 70 / 10 10 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 98 71 101 71 / 5 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 92 63 95 64 / 20 5 10 5
ELK............................. 88 59 90 60 / 40 10 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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