776
FXUS65 KABQ 041120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH SUNDAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND
MONDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRAL
HIGHER TERRAIN, PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND PARTS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
IT'S A QUIET EARLY OCTOBER NIGHT ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS RATON PASS, THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND SOME OF THE CAPROCK BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN
SANTA FE, EASTERN ABQ, AND CARRIZOZO. LOW CLOUDS, ALONG WITH LOW
(<15%) CHANCES FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE, WILL FURTHER DEVELOP
ACROSS MOST AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MID
THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY ERODING AWAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY TO
MID THIS AFTERNOON PROBABLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE EAST WINDS IN THE
MIDDLE RGV WILL SPREAD WEST TO WESTERN NM MID TO LATE MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING TAPS INTO 30 KT EASTERLY FLOW AT 700 MB. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS (WIND GUSTS OF GUSTS OF
20 TO 35 MPH) ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR CANYON
OPENINGS IN THE MIDDLE RGV DURING THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND
SUNSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
OCTOBER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO THE LOW
CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS ALONG WITH THE SAN AUGUSTIN
PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING BURNING OFF MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH IT LINGERING LONGEST POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ON THE CAPROCK. A FEW SHOWERS WITH
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR
MOST, EXCEPT 3 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS NORTHEAST NM DUE TO LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE BASE OF A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS WEST TO SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY AS A WEAK ILL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE/ILL-DEFINED LOW MOVES SOUTH OVER THE STATE
WEDNESDAY WITH IT'S AXIS HORIZONTALLY ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST.
DAYTIME HEATING UNDER THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MORE DEFINED
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TEXAS THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERING EAST-NORTHEAST TO THE TX BIG BEND AND PERMIAN BASIN
FRIDAY RESULTING IN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THAT UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND EXITS
EAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COAST AND GREAT BASIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO LOWERING
HEIGHTS IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, NEAR RATON PASS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL EXPAND
IN COVERAGE MID THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MEANWHILE, BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST CANYON GAP WINDS WILL
DEVELOP MID THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ABQ (INCLUDING KABQ)
AROUND SUNRISE SPREADING WEST TO KGNT AND KGUP LATE THIS MORNING.
PEAK GUSTS OF AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND CANYON OPENINGS INTO THE MIDDLE RGV. EAST WINDS
TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET. LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS WITH
PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AND RESULTANT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND IN THE SAN AUGUSTIN PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK. LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF FOR MOST BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND CANYON OPENINGS IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNSET. SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY, AND FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS
FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 53 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 76 42 74 44 / 5 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 70 46 71 48 / 5 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 75 44 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 70 42 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 71 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 72 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 69 46 69 47 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 67 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 44 75 45 / 0 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 80 48 78 50 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 70 41 69 43 / 20 20 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 47 70 50 / 10 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 68 43 71 47 / 20 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 42 71 45 / 10 0 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 63 36 67 36 / 10 0 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 27 69 26 / 10 0 20 5
TAOS............................ 71 42 72 44 / 10 0 10 0
MORA............................ 65 42 71 46 / 20 0 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 75 47 75 48 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 48 70 49 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 47 72 48 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 50 74 53 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 54 74 55 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 78 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 77 49 76 51 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 50 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 77 50 76 52 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 51 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 74 49 74 51 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 77 51 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 45 70 47 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 71 47 71 50 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 68 45 71 47 / 20 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 70 44 73 44 / 20 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 45 69 48 / 20 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 44 70 47 / 20 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 45 69 47 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 49 71 51 / 10 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 45 66 43 / 20 20 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 44 73 46 / 5 5 0 0
RATON........................... 71 44 75 46 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 44 77 45 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 44 71 46 / 20 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 50 77 54 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 69 47 72 47 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 75 53 78 54 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 50 75 52 / 20 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 76 51 79 54 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 74 52 75 55 / 10 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 76 52 77 55 / 10 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 52 76 54 / 20 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 57 76 55 / 20 10 10 0
PICACHO......................... 71 51 73 51 / 20 20 20 0
ELK............................. 67 49 69 49 / 30 40 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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