782
FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
430 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 426 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
- A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FAVORED ABOVE 9000 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
- ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
A 555DAM 500MB LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS SOCAL,
WITH A DEEP TAP OF PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE REGION PER
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PWATS RISING TO NEAR DAILY
RECORD HIGH VALUES AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS EAST ACROSS AZ. THE
RESULT WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
THE FILLING UPPER LOW MOVES OVER CENTRAL NM. SOAKING RAINS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM, WITH QPF
AMOUNTS OF 0.50-1.00". SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS
DUE TO STRONGER FORCING AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS TOWARD THE AZ/NM
BORDER THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF HIGH, AROUND
9KFT OR HIGHER, BUT LOWER TO AROUND 8KFT LATE THURSDAY. THESE HIGH
SNOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT IMPACTS FROM SNOW ACCUMULATION MAINLY TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN WELL ABOVE OUR POPULATION CENTERS. THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS (MAINLY JUST WHITEWATER BALDY)
COULD PICK UP BETWEEN 12-18" OF SNOW, WITH 5-10" FORECAST ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL BE
IMPACTED, BUT REFRAIN FROM ISSUING FOR THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
WITH NO POPULATIONS OR INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COLDER ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF NM THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CA
COAST, FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE FIRST SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY WIND-DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM, BUT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT A SHORT-LIVED BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SOLUTIONS AGREE ON A FILLING UPPER LOW IMPACTING NM WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
RAMPING UP SUNDAY, BUT DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH
WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS WELL AND 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AN UNIMPRESSIVE 562-565DAM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER NM. SO, MORE
VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%)
OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEING REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. WARMING AND DRYING IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH MODERATE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT IN AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NM. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY IMPACT KGUP AND KFMN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KLVS TODAY, BUT OTHERWISE WILL
BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS TWO PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS, INCREASED HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL HIT THE AREA LATE
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN
LATER THIS WEEK AND BE MOSTLY POOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 40 50 35 / 0 50 40 20
DULCE........................... 53 26 47 27 / 20 60 80 40
CUBA............................ 52 33 45 27 / 20 60 80 30
GALLUP.......................... 54 31 46 26 / 5 50 50 10
EL MORRO........................ 52 35 44 27 / 10 60 70 20
GRANTS.......................... 55 33 46 25 / 20 60 80 10
QUEMADO......................... 54 33 44 24 / 20 60 70 5
MAGDALENA....................... 54 38 46 30 / 30 90 80 5
DATIL........................... 52 34 43 25 / 30 70 80 5
RESERVE......................... 55 32 46 22 / 50 80 80 5
GLENWOOD........................ 58 35 49 26 / 70 90 80 5
CHAMA........................... 47 26 43 25 / 20 50 80 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 37 44 32 / 20 70 90 40
PECOS........................... 53 35 46 29 / 20 60 90 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 32 44 30 / 5 30 80 50
RED RIVER....................... 43 25 38 24 / 5 30 80 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 20 42 17 / 5 40 80 50
TAOS............................ 54 30 47 27 / 10 40 80 40
MORA............................ 56 30 45 26 / 10 50 80 30
ESPANOLA........................ 59 35 49 31 / 20 60 80 40
SANTA FE........................ 53 38 46 33 / 20 70 90 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 37 48 31 / 20 70 80 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 43 50 37 / 20 80 80 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 42 52 33 / 20 80 80 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 42 53 32 / 20 80 80 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 43 52 34 / 20 80 80 10
BELEN........................... 62 41 53 30 / 20 90 80 10
BERNALILLO...................... 61 41 52 34 / 20 80 80 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 40 53 28 / 20 80 80 10
CORRALES........................ 62 42 52 33 / 20 80 80 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 42 53 30 / 20 80 80 10
PLACITAS........................ 56 42 50 35 / 20 80 80 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 42 51 34 / 20 80 80 20
SOCORRO......................... 63 45 54 32 / 30 90 80 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 37 46 31 / 20 80 80 20
TIJERAS......................... 55 38 47 31 / 20 80 80 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 37 47 29 / 20 70 80 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 35 49 25 / 20 70 90 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 35 46 29 / 20 70 80 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 37 47 28 / 30 80 90 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 37 48 28 / 30 80 90 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 41 51 30 / 40 80 90 5
RUIDOSO......................... 54 38 46 30 / 40 80 90 5
CAPULIN......................... 58 32 48 28 / 0 10 80 50
RATON........................... 61 30 50 28 / 0 10 70 50
SPRINGER........................ 63 31 51 27 / 0 20 70 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 35 48 28 / 10 40 80 20
CLAYTON......................... 64 42 53 37 / 5 10 80 40
ROY............................. 61 38 51 31 / 10 20 80 30
CONCHAS......................... 67 42 57 35 / 30 30 80 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 41 56 35 / 40 50 80 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 42 58 36 / 30 30 90 20
CLOVIS.......................... 68 47 59 39 / 40 40 90 20
PORTALES........................ 69 46 60 38 / 40 40 90 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 42 58 35 / 50 60 90 10
ROSWELL......................... 69 47 63 37 / 40 60 80 5
PICACHO......................... 66 43 57 33 / 20 70 80 0
ELK............................. 64 39 53 27 / 30 70 80 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR NMZ210-211-213-214.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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