161
FXUS65 KABQ 251140 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY.
- A BLUSTERY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT AND
STRONG NORTHEAST CROSSWINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, AND STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ISOLATED AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL POSE A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING,
NEW FIRE STARTS, AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THEN INCREASINGLY FARTHER EAST AS WELL
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
RECORD BREAKING WARMTH WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE TODAY AND THURSDAY
AS A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES PLUMMET. THE 500 MB PRESSURE HEIGHT
IS STILL FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 591 DAM OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING, THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMAX ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY AROUND 20-30 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES. IF ROSWELL REACHES OUR FORECAST HIGH OF 101 F ON
THURSDAY, IT WILL BREAK ITS RECORD FOR THE EARLIEST 100 DEGREE
DAY, WHICH WAS SET ON APRIL 18, 2025. MULTIPLE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY
ALSO REACH THEIR RECORD WARMEST MARCH READINGS TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AS
HUMIDITIES BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ALMOST AREAWIDE, AND AS
WIND SPEEDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING EASTWARD OVER THE CO/NM BORDER. FURTHER, A LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF A ~994 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE NORTHEAST
NM/SOUTHEAST CO BORDER WILL HELP TO PRODUCE WEST AND NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO,
SANDIA, AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE THE
GREATEST RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXIST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRIVEN BY A ~1039 MB
SURFACE HIGH ON THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS AND A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHWEST US COAST. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS FROM 40-50
MPH WILL BE COMMON ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH ALONG THE TX
BORDER SOUTH OF I-40. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND 4 OR 5 AM FRIDAY WITH A STRONG EAST
WIND BELOW CANYONS. GUSTS SHOULD PEAK IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON
FRIDAY FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD WITH SPEEDS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH,
EXCEPT BELOW TIJERAS CANYON IN ALBUQUERQUE WHERE MOS IS COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. COOL AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING AROUND 30 TO 40
DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY BELOW THURSDAY'S
READINGS, AND A FEW TO 25 DEGREES FARTHER WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NOW LOOK TO REBOUND EVERYWHERE EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER ON
SATURDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR AVERAGE ON
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TO AS MUCH AS 16 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES
FROM CHAMA TO GALLUP.
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER WESTERN NM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND FARTHER EAST AS WELL STARTING MONDAY, AS THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT RETREATS OVER THE GULF COAST
AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIVEN
BY THE INCREASED GULF MOISTURE BEHIND FRIDAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT,
ISOLATED AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS, SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PERHAPS
ONTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON HOW MUCH PWATS
WILL RISE DUE TO INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING
DISTURBANCES, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH
MORE DISTURBANCES CROSSING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, DAILY ROUNDS
OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND MAINLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONGER VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, BRIEF PERIODS OF
BLOWING DUST AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND POTENTIALLY SOME NEW FIRE
STARTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
GUSTY WITH EACH DAY STARTING TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH A SUMMER-
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PRODUCING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH, DENSITY ALTITUDE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT
CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THURSDAY. MODELS VARY ON HOW STRONG THE
SURFACE WINDS WILL BLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SO WE WILL LET THE DAY
SHIFT DECIDE WHERE TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING. THE MOST
CONFIDENT AREA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME IS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HUMIDITIES WILL THEN QUICKLY
CLIMB ABOVE 20 PERCENT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES.
THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE STARTING SATURDAY, THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY, AND ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY VARY
FROM 12 TO 22 PERCENT WITH THE LOWEST READINGS ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE TUESDAY, WHEN HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB
OVER 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST AREA. MODELS DEPICT A POTENTIAL STRONG WIND EVENT TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 47 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 84 38 79 33 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 83 44 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 36 79 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 43 77 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 87 40 81 37 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 42 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 86 51 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 83 46 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 88 36 86 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 91 42 90 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 78 41 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 53 80 47 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 84 48 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 48 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 72 46 67 34 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 34 74 25 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 85 38 81 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 83 48 81 36 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 89 46 87 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 83 52 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 48 84 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 57 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 53 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 92 50 90 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 53 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 91 47 90 42 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 91 53 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 46 90 41 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 91 53 89 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 48 90 43 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 87 56 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 54 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 92 53 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 53 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 85 53 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 49 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 43 85 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 48 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 50 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 51 83 44 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 54 87 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 83 55 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 84 48 85 30 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 88 43 88 33 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 90 42 89 37 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 48 86 37 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 90 56 94 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 89 49 90 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 95 51 97 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 51 93 43 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 54 99 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 96 54 98 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 97 53 98 42 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 48 98 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 99 52 101 50 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 93 54 94 45 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 90 53 92 43 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-122>126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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