449
FXUS65 KABQ 251147 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY AGAIN TURN SEVERE OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH A LOWER RISK OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
- RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- MODERATE-TO-LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RETURN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO, AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, DUE TO
SATURATED SOIL THERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS AND CO TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHILE CONTINUING TO
DRAW VERY RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, THEN
COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO TREND
DOWNWARD THERE. FARTHER WEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS, THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE OF WEST CENTRAL NM, AND TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GEFS ENSEMBLE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
PEAK THIS MORNING AROUND 160-300 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WITH ACTUAL PWATS AROUND
0.80-1.15" THERE, STRONGER STORMS WILL AGAIN BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT RATES NEAR AND OVER 1"/HR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, PWATS
WILL VARY AROUND 0.80-0.60", SUGGESTING RAIN RATES UP TO 1"/HR IN
STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER, WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHWEST, AND WEST
CENTRAL NM, BECAUSE THE GROUND IS SO SATURATED FROM THE PAST TWO
DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODERATE RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS THERE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT ASSESS
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, IF NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ARE PROGGED TO REACH
AROUND 0.25-2.0" ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WITH MOSTLY LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF,
WHICH INDICATES WHAT A FEW OF THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
PROBABLY END UP BEING, REACHES 2-4" ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED 2" AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IN ADDITION, SOME
STORMS WILL PROBABLY TURN SEVERE AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL VALLEY EASTWARD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER, A FEW TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2 TO +4 C.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER TODAY WITH READINGS VARYING FROM A FEW TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ON MONDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS, WHERE MOIST
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A WEAK TRAILING
DISTURBANCE CROSSES ALOFT. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWNWARD,
SO THE RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LOW ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK NORTH OF NM DRAWS DRY WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES AREAWIDE STARTING TUESDAY, THEN AS
MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ON THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW
COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW A
RICH RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREAWIDE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS WILL DEVELOP WESTWARD TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF NORTHWEST NM TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT
SPEEDS AROUND 30-45 KT. A FEW STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE WILL PROBABLY TURN SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, FOG, AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PROBABLY GUST IN THE
25-35 MPH RANGE OVER NORTHEAST AREAS ON TUESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 39 61 37 / 30 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 30 59 26 / 60 60 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 35 59 35 / 60 40 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 59 28 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 30 62 30 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 29 63 29 / 30 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 62 31 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 40 62 42 / 20 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 58 34 62 36 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 64 33 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 39 73 43 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 30 53 29 / 70 60 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 39 58 39 / 90 60 0 0
PECOS........................... 59 35 61 34 / 90 80 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 36 57 35 / 80 80 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 48 28 49 24 / 90 80 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 25 55 19 / 90 70 0 0
TAOS............................ 59 34 59 26 / 80 80 0 0
MORA............................ 56 31 61 28 / 90 60 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 65 39 65 36 / 90 70 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 40 60 40 / 90 80 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 39 62 38 / 90 70 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 45 65 44 / 70 50 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 44 66 45 / 70 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 43 67 43 / 60 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 45 65 44 / 70 40 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 43 67 43 / 40 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 44 66 42 / 80 50 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 42 67 41 / 60 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 65 44 66 42 / 80 50 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 44 67 43 / 60 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 62 44 64 43 / 80 60 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 45 65 44 / 80 50 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 69 46 69 47 / 30 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 39 60 39 / 70 60 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 42 62 42 / 70 60 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 36 62 35 / 70 50 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 35 64 32 / 70 40 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 40 60 40 / 80 40 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 39 63 39 / 50 30 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 41 63 41 / 60 20 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 48 66 47 / 60 30 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 61 45 63 42 / 60 30 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 55 38 59 37 / 100 80 0 0
RATON........................... 59 38 64 34 / 90 70 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 60 36 66 31 / 90 60 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 36 61 34 / 90 60 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 47 65 46 / 90 100 10 0
ROY............................. 57 42 62 40 / 100 90 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 49 69 47 / 100 90 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 49 67 47 / 90 80 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 51 69 51 / 90 80 30 5
CLOVIS.......................... 65 53 66 52 / 90 80 50 20
PORTALES........................ 66 52 68 51 / 80 70 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 52 67 51 / 90 100 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 67 56 68 52 / 60 80 40 20
PICACHO......................... 67 49 66 46 / 60 60 50 20
ELK............................. 66 47 66 44 / 50 60 50 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ203-
204-207-210-211-216>218.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page