624
FXUS65 KABQ 052040
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
140 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING, THEN RETURN TO
THE SAME AREA WITH A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, HAZARDOUS WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS AND CREATE STRONG CROSSWINDS ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND CROSSWINDS WILL
ALSO REACH 50 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
- LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE WET ROADS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
- MONDAY AND TUESDAY, RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WILL PROBABLY
CREATE MORE WET TRAVEL MAINLY IN LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH CO TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
CO BORDER. UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW IS FORECAST FROM DULCE TO CHAMA
WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS ABOVE CHAMA. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL STEER THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
STRONG WINDS. A MOUNTAIN WAVE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH FROM RUIDOSO TO DUNKEN. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A BLUSTERY PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A
~999 MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL DROP TO 994 MB AS IT
GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER WESTERN KS ON FRIDAY, WHILE 700 MB WIND
SPEEDS PEAK FROM 40-55 KT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NM.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SPEED MAX ALOFT BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
THAT THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HOIST A FEW ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ONGOING ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL FALL AROUND 8 TO 16
DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY'S READINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S ARE THEN FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS
AND DRY FUELS TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON FRIDAY WITH A RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FORMING
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER AZ, WHICH WILL THEN
RETROGRADE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH EASTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH GAPS
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS TO FALL AS MUCH AS 9 ADDITIONAL
DEGREES ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WHILE READINGS REBOUND
OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WARMING TREND WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AS WELL STARTING SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK CLIMBING A FEW TO AROUND 18
DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE BAJA LOW EJECTING EAST AND/OR NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRAW A COMBINATION OF ELEVATED PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NM WITH RAIN
SHOWERS, MOUNTAINS SNOW SHOWERS, AND SOME HIGH PLAINS
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, RAIN AMOUNTS ONLY LOOK
TO REACH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A QUARTER INCH OR SO OF RAIN AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENT MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS (EQUATING
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW). SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW MAY
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, POTENTIALLY SPREADING ACCUMULATING PRECIP
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY COOL
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN A FEW TO AROUND
12 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KT IN MANY LOCATIONS TODAY,
EXCEPT UP TO 40 KT ALONG NM'S WESTERN BORDER, AND UP TO 45 KT FROM
RUIDOSO TO DUNCAN AND FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON AND CLAYTON. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS,
ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. UP TO AN INCH
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM DULCE TO CHAMA. AFTER WEAKER
WINDS TONIGHT, A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THE WIND
DIRECTION OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS IT CROSSES ON FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. ALSO ON FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS STARTING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
AROUND AXX AND SRR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR FRIDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS, EXCEPT ALONG THE CO
BORDER, WHILE WIND GUSTS REACH UP TO 50 MPH. A BLUSTERY PACIFIC
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES EASTERN NM FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY, BUT ERCS IN THE 60TH TO 70TH
PERCENTILE AND AN ONGOING WILDFIRE NEAR WAGON MOUND COUNTERACT
THIS MITIGATING FACTOR. AFTER WEAKER WINDS THIS WEEKEND, AND
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM,
WINDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WHILE
HUMIDITIES AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BAJA LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 30 49 24 56 / 40 40 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 46 14 54 / 20 70 5 5
CUBA............................ 25 46 20 53 / 10 40 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 47 15 55 / 20 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 24 45 22 53 / 5 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 23 50 17 56 / 0 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 48 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 31 54 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 49 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 22 57 19 62 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 25 61 24 67 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 21 39 14 47 / 10 70 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 32 46 27 51 / 5 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 28 47 22 53 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 44 21 50 / 0 30 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 24 34 15 41 / 0 40 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 19 42 9 46 / 0 30 10 5
TAOS............................ 26 48 16 54 / 0 30 5 0
MORA............................ 28 47 19 53 / 0 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 55 21 60 / 0 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 48 27 54 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 51 24 56 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 37 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 36 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 32 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 35 58 29 62 / 0 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 60 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 35 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 33 60 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 36 52 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 35 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 37 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 50 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 51 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 52 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 29 54 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 50 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 54 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 33 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 39 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 28 51 18 51 / 0 20 20 0
RATON........................... 25 53 17 54 / 0 30 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 26 55 19 57 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 52 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 37 62 26 55 / 0 0 5 0
ROY............................. 35 58 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 38 64 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 60 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 68 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 70 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 42 70 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 36 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 42 73 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 42 65 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 41 64 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ223-229-
232>234.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ226-240.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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