762
FXUS65 KABQ 112311 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
411 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 347 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
- LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG
WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND IS UNDERWAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MID WEEK.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
AN UPPER HIGH IS POKING EAST INTO CENTRAL CA AND EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM, PROVIDING A
VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE THANKS IN PART TO SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM. GIVEN SOME SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON AND STUBBORN
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS TO TRAP THAT WATER VAPOR, WE CAN'T RULE OUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THAT SAID, NONE OF THE
LATEST MODEL AND ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE FORECAST FREEZING FOG, SO
OUR FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE, A WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO CENTER OVER NORTHERN CA, INCREASE IN
STRENGTH AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING THE
WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE. AFTER
WARM CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TAKE A RIDE
ON THE TEMPERATURE ROLLERCOASTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THANKS TO TWO COLD FRONTS, A WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. AMONG THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE, THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER IN SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON FRIDAY, PROVIDING FORCING AND INTERACTING WITH UPSLOPE
FROM THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SNOW ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. OUR
FORECAST IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AT THIS TIME, BUT
THIS LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME IS WORTHY OF NOTE IN CASE IT TRENDS.
AFTER A COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
WARMING WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 410 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHES OF
FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS
WHERE SNOWMELT OCCURRED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN FZFG DEVELOPMENT IS
VERY LOW. ANOTHER BREEZY NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND IS EXPECTED AT
KSAF TOWARD SUNRISE, DIMINISHING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
ON MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS IN PLAY THROUGH
MID WEEK, WITH A STABLE ATMOSPHERE PROVIDING STUBBORN TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS AND POOR VENTILATION. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
FRIDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BUT THEN TANK
AND BECOME MOSTLY POOR OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 14 43 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 13 52 15 53 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 14 47 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 6 45 8 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 13 49 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 9 50 12 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 11 48 14 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 23 47 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 17 46 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 14 56 16 60 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 19 59 19 64 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 49 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 23 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 52 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 9 46 12 50 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 10 43 13 45 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -10 48 -7 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 9 51 10 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 17 55 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 16 53 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 18 48 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 49 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 21 53 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 23 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 18 51 18 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 23 52 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 51 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 23 52 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 51 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 25 48 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 51 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 24 53 25 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 22 46 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 20 48 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 11 50 14 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 19 48 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 19 48 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 50 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 25 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 23 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 17 49 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 10 52 15 56 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 9 51 13 55 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 56 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 26 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 53 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 19 60 21 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 56 23 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 20 61 22 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 21 57 23 65 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 19 59 21 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 19 56 20 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 20 56 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 22 58 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 20 58 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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