002
FXUS65 KABQ 121127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TODAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN COME BACK AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS
MAY NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
A POTENT 536DAM 500MB LOW IS MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN CA AND A
DRY SLOT IS PIVOTING OVER AZ/NM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES
WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DAYTIME MIXING OF STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL
BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
FILL AND ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY, WITH A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING, BUT SPEEDS FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
THE FILLING UPPER LOW WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AZ MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN CO TUESDAY, THEN DRAG IT'S
TROUGH AXIS OVER NM TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TREND UP TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM WHERE SPEEDS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL FAVOR THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MAY WORK ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NEAR 6500FT TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELEGATED TO TO 9KFT AND ABOVE. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST
AND THIS WILL BE A MUCH NEEDED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN
AREAS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY.
WINDS ALOFT WILL BACK AND INCREASE THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT,
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM ON
FRIDAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY
WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH, WHILE FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BE A CLASSIC SPRING WIND EVENT ACROSS THE AREA, COMPLETE WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW OUR CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH CONTINUED
CLEARING ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHES OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF KROW.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1237 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
DRYING AND WARMING ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. A MIX OF ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT AREAS OF WETTING RAINFALL FROM
FRI/SAT ARE MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FUELS ASSESSMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NM AS ERCS HAVE TRENDED DOWN. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM
FRI/SAT WAS MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE WETTING RAINFALL
WAS MORE PLENTIFUL, BUT A FEW STRIKES ACROSS WESTERN NM MAY HAVE
CREATED IGNITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM, WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER A DAY OF DRYING. CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDTIONS TREND UP MORESO TUESDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD
FRONT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS AND ERCS WILL TREND BACK UP THU/FRI WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 72 42 68 40 / 0 5 10 50
DULCE........................... 67 34 63 32 / 5 5 20 70
CUBA............................ 68 38 63 34 / 0 5 20 50
GALLUP.......................... 69 32 64 29 / 0 0 10 40
EL MORRO........................ 66 35 61 34 / 0 0 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 70 34 66 33 / 0 0 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 67 38 63 36 / 0 0 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 71 47 67 43 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 65 40 61 38 / 0 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 70 34 68 33 / 0 0 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 76 37 73 36 / 0 0 10 30
CHAMA........................... 60 32 56 30 / 5 5 30 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 45 62 43 / 5 5 20 40
PECOS........................... 67 38 64 36 / 0 5 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 36 60 35 / 0 5 5 30
RED RIVER....................... 53 32 51 30 / 0 5 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 25 57 25 / 0 5 5 30
TAOS............................ 67 33 64 33 / 0 5 5 30
MORA............................ 66 37 64 35 / 0 0 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 73 42 70 42 / 0 5 10 40
SANTA FE........................ 67 42 64 41 / 0 5 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 41 67 40 / 0 5 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 52 72 49 / 0 5 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 51 73 47 / 0 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 48 76 45 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 50 74 47 / 0 5 10 20
BELEN........................... 79 47 75 44 / 0 0 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 78 49 74 46 / 0 5 10 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 79 45 75 42 / 0 0 10 20
CORRALES........................ 79 49 74 45 / 0 5 10 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 45 75 42 / 0 0 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 73 50 69 48 / 0 5 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 51 74 48 / 0 5 10 30
SOCORRO......................... 82 52 78 48 / 0 0 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 46 66 44 / 0 5 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 71 46 67 44 / 0 5 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 71 44 68 43 / 0 5 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 34 70 35 / 0 0 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 39 66 39 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 44 69 43 / 0 0 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 43 69 42 / 0 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 49 72 48 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 65 44 65 43 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 69 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 72 35 71 33 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 75 37 73 36 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 39 67 39 / 0 0 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 78 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 73 42 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 82 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 49 77 47 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 49 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 81 48 81 51 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 48 83 51 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 85 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 76 50 76 49 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 73 45 73 46 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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