104
FXUS65 KABQ 210645
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1245 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS THROUGH LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS WHERE HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S WILL BE EACH
DAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THRU
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CLIPS FAR NORTHEASTERN NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENINGS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
H5 HEIGHTS HAVE FLATTENED OVER NM WITH A MODEST 593DM H5 OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CA ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW TO REMAIN OVER THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT. CLEAR SKIES, AND HOT WEATHER REIGN SUPREME ANOTHER
DAY TODAY AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S/80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO 90S AND LOW 100S AT LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH MODEST WESTERLY WINDS THRU
EASTERN NM WILL BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO OR JUST ABOVE 105F AT
ROSWELL WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. TODAY BEING THE SUMMER SOLSTICE, IT SHOULD BE NO
SURPRISE THAT THE UV INDEX WILL BE HIGH AT 12. THOSE OUTDOORS
ENJOYING THE CLEAR SKIES WILL BE AT RISK OF SUNBURN QUICKLY.
TONIGHT WILL SEE THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY DUE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH AND WESTWARD THRU EASTERN NM THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10F TO 15F FROM SUNDAY'S READINGS INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
ROSWELL STILL HAS A CHANCE TO FLIRT WITH 100F AGAIN HOWEVER AS MUCH
OF THE CAA STAYS FURTHER NORTH. SUPPRESSION BENEATH THE BUILDING
596DM H5 HIGH OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TO AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S.
MUCH OF MONDAY'S THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL IN FACT BE NORTH OF THE
AREA ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES IN CO. THESE CELLS LOOK TO
TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WITH A MINOR (<20%) CHANCE OF CLIPPING FAR
NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY EVENING. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
ACTIVITY IS MORE LIKELY TO HELP PUSH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN NM BACK UP INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
THE SEASON'S FIRST RENDITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH REACHES 598DM NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM TUESDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD THRU AZ AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 HIGH.
SUPPRESSING WESTERLIES WILL MIX OUT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY, WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO EASTERN AZ AND
WESTERN NM WILL BE REALIZED AS SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE THREAT OF DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM TD DEPRESSIONS OF 50+ DEGREES,
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS YIELDING 1000-1300 J/KG OF DCAPE EACH ONE OF
THESE DAYS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE MORE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS COMPARED TO THEIR WESTERN BRETHREN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM. AS SUCH, SOME OF THE DRIER NATURED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD END UP STRETCHING INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS.
THE H5 HIGH FLATTENS BY NEXT WEEKEND AS GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEW MEXICO, SHUTTING DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND RAISING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH BREEZY WINDS LESSENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR SOME EASTERN TERMINALS, BUT NOT
CLOSE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KROW. BREEZY TO AT TIMES WINDY
WESTERLIES RETURN AREAWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE MOSTLY SKC
SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1238 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHTED BY 12 TO 20 HOURS OF SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITY CONTINUES TODAY, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WESTERLY WINDS.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY OR SHORT-LIVED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT, ALONGSIDE DEEP LAYER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING UP TO 12K-15K
FT. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THRU EASTERN NM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES. DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
SEASON'S FIRST RENDITION OF A MONSOON HIGH BUILDING OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NM WILL BRING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN NM TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY, INCREASING THE THREAT OF VIRGA
INDUCED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND/OR DRY LIGHTNING. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THRU EASTERN NM WILL BE WETTER IN NATURE, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BY HOW MUCH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DRIER
NATURED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. DRY
PREVAILING WESTERLIES LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 94 51 96 53 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 89 43 91 44 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 88 51 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 90 43 92 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 87 46 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 91 44 93 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 88 50 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 92 58 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 89 52 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 94 47 96 52 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 96 53 97 58 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 41 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 61 88 62 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 89 53 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 51 85 52 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 77 43 76 45 / 0 0 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 37 79 38 / 0 0 10 0
TAOS............................ 89 48 88 51 / 0 0 5 0
MORA............................ 87 51 84 51 / 0 0 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 95 56 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 89 57 89 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 65 96 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 60 98 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 100 58 99 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 97 60 97 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 57 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 98 61 98 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 58 97 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 93 61 93 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 61 97 63 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 102 66 101 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 51 93 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 55 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 56 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 96 63 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 88 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 90 52 79 52 / 0 20 20 5
RATON........................... 94 54 85 53 / 0 10 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 94 56 86 54 / 0 5 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 55 84 54 / 0 0 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 95 59 83 59 / 0 20 20 10
ROY............................. 93 58 83 57 / 0 5 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 101 63 91 62 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 61 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 103 64 91 64 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 101 63 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 103 64 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 63 94 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 106 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 99 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 95 61 93 61 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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