451
FXUS65 KABQ 031119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 517 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
- A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM LATE
TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
AFTER A DOWN DAY WITH A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW PULLS A
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTH INTO THE STATE. EXPECT AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, INITIALLY FAVORING THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN NM. THE
LATEST CAMS SHOW CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE RGV LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY PRECEDING AIRMASS THIS
ROUND WILL FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER SOAKING RAINS WITH
PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE. THE UPTREND IN PWATS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEVELOPING MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, WHEN VALUES WILL EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. FRIDAY'S ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE
IS A MODERATE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO BOTH
TODAY AND FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE FRIDAY DUE TO ELEVATED
PWATS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY, WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH UP TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EASTERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARMER
CONDITIONS FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING A MODERATE
HEAT RISK TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. AT THE SAME TIME,
HIGH PWATS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM,
STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND CHALLENGING DAILY RECORDS.
DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD, WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT BACK EASTWARD
FROM EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WHILE ELEVATED PWATS CONTINUE
OVER THE REGION THANKS TO PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURES FROM MID THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING A VERY WET SCENARIO INVOLVING
A AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP TAP OF MOISTURE WHILE
THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN US. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE HAVE LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DURING THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD BUT IT IS WORTH ACKNOWLEDGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASINGLY WET SCENARIO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHORT-LIVED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY. THE TERMINALS MORE LIKELY TO
BE IMPACTED ARE KGUP AND KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AND
BRINGS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS WEST BACK INTO
THE REGION. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS AND IMPROVED HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEN FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF AROUND MID WEEK DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL
SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF SYNOPTIC
WEATHER FEATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 88 61 87 62 / 0 10 10 0
DULCE........................... 85 47 84 48 / 0 20 30 20
CUBA............................ 82 56 82 56 / 5 30 40 30
GALLUP.......................... 84 53 82 53 / 10 20 30 10
EL MORRO........................ 80 52 79 52 / 40 40 70 30
GRANTS.......................... 84 55 82 55 / 50 40 80 40
QUEMADO......................... 80 56 79 55 / 50 50 70 40
MAGDALENA....................... 82 60 81 60 / 30 40 70 40
DATIL........................... 78 55 78 55 / 50 50 70 40
RESERVE......................... 85 55 84 55 / 40 50 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 91 58 89 58 / 30 40 40 20
CHAMA........................... 78 50 78 50 / 0 20 40 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 60 81 60 / 5 30 50 30
PECOS........................... 84 57 83 57 / 0 30 30 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 54 81 55 / 0 10 30 10
RED RIVER....................... 72 46 72 46 / 0 10 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 40 77 40 / 0 20 40 20
TAOS............................ 85 52 84 53 / 0 20 20 20
MORA............................ 83 53 81 53 / 5 10 60 20
ESPANOLA........................ 89 59 87 59 / 0 30 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 85 61 83 61 / 0 40 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 59 86 59 / 0 40 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 68 89 67 / 0 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 65 89 65 / 0 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 64 91 64 / 0 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 67 90 67 / 0 30 30 20
BELEN........................... 92 63 91 62 / 10 30 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 92 66 91 66 / 0 40 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 61 91 61 / 5 30 20 30
CORRALES........................ 92 66 91 66 / 0 30 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 63 91 63 / 10 30 30 30
PLACITAS........................ 89 65 88 65 / 0 40 10 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 66 90 66 / 0 30 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 93 68 91 67 / 10 30 30 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 85 59 83 59 / 0 40 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 86 61 85 61 / 0 40 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 57 86 56 / 0 30 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 55 87 54 / 5 20 40 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 59 84 58 / 10 10 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 58 84 57 / 5 20 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 59 84 57 / 5 20 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 64 87 63 / 10 10 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 82 58 80 58 / 40 10 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 87 58 86 58 / 0 5 20 0
RATON........................... 90 54 89 55 / 0 0 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 92 55 91 55 / 0 5 40 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 56 85 56 / 0 5 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 94 67 95 66 / 0 5 5 20
ROY............................. 91 60 90 60 / 0 5 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 99 67 98 66 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 66 93 65 / 20 10 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 70 99 68 / 20 10 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 99 68 97 68 / 20 10 5 10
PORTALES........................ 99 69 98 69 / 20 10 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 69 98 67 / 20 10 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 100 71 100 70 / 10 10 0 20
PICACHO......................... 93 64 91 63 / 40 10 60 20
ELK............................. 90 60 88 59 / 40 10 70 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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