698
FXUS65 KABQ 071922
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
122 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF COOLING ACROSS EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
A MINOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
MOST OF THE SNOW FIELD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM THAT
APPEARED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS COMPLETELY
MELTED PER THE LATEST IMAGERY, EXCEPT FOR OVER THE PEAKS OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS
UNDERWAY AND BY FRIDAY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE. DUE TO THE DRY ATMOSPHERE AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE,
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES OF 40-50 DEGREES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A BAJA LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NM ON
FRIDAY AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A NON-PLAYER FOR OUR WEATHER.
EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY WILL STEER STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER NM. DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, WARMING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO RISE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SUNDAY AND WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS AT SOME POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
10-15 DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
UPSLOPE FORCING FOR A ROUND OF LATE DAY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
A 500MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 590DAM OVER AZ ON MONDAY,
THEN MOVE EAST OVER NM ON TUESDAY, RENEWING THE WARMING TREND AND
SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS AT A NUMBER OF LOCALES,
INCLUDING FARMINGTON, ALBUQUERQUE AND ROSWELL TO NAME A FEW. THE
UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF NM ON WEDNESDAY, OPENING UP
THE SOUTHERN DOOR TO MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION GOING INTO THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE MODELING HAS SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND EASTERN
PACIFIC FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AND IS NOW SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD WITH THE MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURES. WE HAVE MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE ON ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING FROM MID
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SOME LATE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU MAY 7 2026
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS UNDERWAY, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACHING UP ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY. INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING ON SATURDAY WILL BRING
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON, CREATING SEVERAL
HOURS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, ERC VALUES ARE MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
FIRE AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIMITED IN AREA ON SATURDAY.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PULL UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
TO EASTERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR A
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY
THAT WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH WILL TRANSITION EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. HUMIDITY AND CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THEREAFTER AS THE UPPER
HIGH MOVES EAST OF NM AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO CREEP UP FROM THE
SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 81 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 27 76 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 36 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 32 80 39 82 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 79 40 82 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 38 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 41 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 82 41 85 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 86 43 89 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 70 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 37 75 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 31 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 67 31 69 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 30 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 38 73 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 38 79 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 84 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 86 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 39 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 44 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 44 85 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 40 85 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 78 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 80 37 83 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 40 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 44 72 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 70 41 74 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 33 75 40 80 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 33 78 40 82 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 77 45 82 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 38 76 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 43 84 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 82 46 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 85 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 85 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 86 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 86 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 88 53 95 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 41 79 48 85 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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