797
FXUS65 KABQ 022340 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, WHERE A FEW NEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET ON SUNDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING, PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND DRIZZLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE THEIR
WAY THROUGH RIO ARRIBA, SANDOVAL, AND SANTA FE COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS (MAINLY ABOVE
9000 FT) COULD SEE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATING UP
TO 2 TO 3 INCHES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST OVER HIGH
MOUNTAIN PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOWFALL AND DENSE CLOUD COVER
CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS AND LOW VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER MOST AREAS BY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES EAST
OF NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS (25% CHANCE).
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WHERE GUSTS
AS STRONG AS 55 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN SE VAUGHN. THERE
ARE WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR SURROUNDING AREAS IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, INCLUDING QUAY, CURRY, ROOSEVELT, AND DE BACA
COUNTIES. STRONGER 50 TO 55 KT 700 MB WINDS LOOK TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, 30 TO 40
KTS GUSTS WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER FOR WINDS OVERALL, SO
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY, BUT
STILL EXPECT THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS TO SEE A FEW STRONG GUSTS OF
50+ MPH. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EASTERN AREAS.
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, AND WITH LESS CLOUD COVER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP ABOUT 10
DEGREES COOLER FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING. PRESSURE HEIGHTS RISE FOR SATURDAY AS SLIGHT
RIDGING BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE. OUTSIDE OF THAT, WEATHER ON
SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL, WITH INCREASING SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD COVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY
OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
STATE LOOK TO BE APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS FOR EARLY JANUARY. HIGHS
FOR EASTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, WHILE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES A TAD AND PREVENT THEM FROM REACHING
RECORDS. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CLIPS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (15% TO 35%) FOR THE FOUR CORNERS
AND TUSAS MOUNTAINS WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. BREEZIER CONDITIONS
FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS, BUT LOOKING TO BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME.
THE NEXT THING TO LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SEEMS TO INDICATE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE THAT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL CROSS THE STATE IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO RETURN TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH SNOWFALL FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY
FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOWFALL MAY
BECOME MORE WIDE SPREAD, AS CURRENT MODELS INDICATE THAT 700 MB
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP AS LOW AS -13 CELSIUS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET, AND THEN
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE SLOWER TO
WEAKEN, SO THIS WILL MEAN THAT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN A FEW EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE OTHER
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OR FREEZING FOG, MAINLY IN NORTHWESTERN AND
PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL AREAS OF NEW MEXICO. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
(40-60%) FOR IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO,
INCLUDING KFMN, WITH LOWER PROBABILITY (20% OR LESS) NEAR AND
SOUTH OF KGUP AND KXNI. ANY FOG OR STRATUS THAT DEVELOP WILL BURN
OFF THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL TURN
VFR WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD AS MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 20% FOR MOST AREAS. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SOME PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SEEING HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS. BREEZIER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER VENTILATION RATES ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT OVERALL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
POOR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK, MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SNOW LEVELS
LOOK TO DROP TO AROUND 6,000 FT BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
PACIFIC FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. ERCS LOOK TO REMAIN AT
NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF
ZONES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 29 52 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 54 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 24 54 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 26 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 21 59 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 63 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 31 57 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 58 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 65 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 68 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 20 49 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 52 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 29 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 53 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 22 45 27 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 52 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 21 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 24 58 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 31 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 55 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 56 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 31 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 29 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 57 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 26 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 58 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 25 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 30 58 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 58 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 33 55 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 31 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 32 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 54 34 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 55 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 28 57 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 59 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 60 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 55 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 24 57 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 23 60 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 27 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 60 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 28 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 29 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 61 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 66 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 32 68 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 31 65 32 70 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 36 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 32 66 33 70 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ221-222-229-
232-234>237-239.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ223-233.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52
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