278
FXUS65 KABQ 311929
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
129 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SOME STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE SURFACE, AND A
RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. INITIALLY THE MOISTURE WON'T BE
TOO RICH, SO THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST
MONDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL
DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
UPPER BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY, MIGRATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE OVER
NM WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX THERE. A SERIES OF
PERTURBATIONS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWATS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 0.80-1.30" OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE THERE WILL BE A RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE RECENT BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AND THE SOIL GETS MORE AND MORE SATURATED. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER FORECASTS 0.75-1.75" INCHES OF RAIN THIS WEEK ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHILE THE NBM FORECASTS A 45%
CHANCE OF OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN EASTERN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES, AND A 20% CHANCE OF OVER 2 INCHES IN THE RUIDOSO AND
ROSWELL AREAS. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT 0.10-0.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL MOSTLY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS, LIGHTER AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
NORTHWEST NM, AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACCUMULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING DRIER AIR FILTERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NM, WHERE
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD SHIFT INTO KS BY
SATURDAY, BUT IT LOOKS TO BE BROAD ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES MONDAY, READINGS WILL TREND COOLER, BOTTOMING OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM NEAR AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST TO AS
MUCH AS 13 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO TREND WARMER FRIDAY, AND REACH WITHIN 4 DEGREES OF
AVERAGE SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR AND BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL RETURN MONDAY,
EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THEY WILL CLIMB UP TO 20
PERCENT. MOST OF THE STORMS ON THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS FORECAST
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT, AND ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE RELEGATED
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THEN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE NORTHWEST EDGE
OF THE GULF MOISTURE SHOULD FEATURE SOME GUSTY AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE A FEW OF THE
STRONGER WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 90 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 38 86 43 86 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 47 84 51 83 / 0 0 0 20
GALLUP.......................... 41 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 44 83 48 82 / 0 0 0 30
GRANTS.......................... 43 87 50 85 / 0 0 0 30
QUEMADO......................... 46 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 50
MAGDALENA....................... 53 86 59 82 / 0 0 5 70
DATIL........................... 48 84 53 80 / 0 0 0 70
RESERVE......................... 43 90 49 90 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 45 95 53 94 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 38 79 43 78 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 83 60 80 / 0 0 10 50
PECOS........................... 45 85 52 79 / 0 0 10 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 81 52 78 / 0 0 5 50
RED RIVER....................... 35 73 41 69 / 0 0 5 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 78 39 72 / 0 0 5 90
TAOS............................ 42 85 49 81 / 0 0 5 60
MORA............................ 45 83 50 75 / 0 0 5 90
ESPANOLA........................ 49 91 57 88 / 0 0 10 50
SANTA FE........................ 52 84 59 80 / 0 0 10 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 87 57 83 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 91 65 87 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 91 61 88 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 94 61 90 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 92 62 89 / 0 0 5 50
BELEN........................... 54 94 59 90 / 0 0 5 60
BERNALILLO...................... 56 93 62 89 / 0 0 5 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 93 58 90 / 0 0 5 60
CORRALES........................ 56 93 62 90 / 0 0 5 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 93 59 89 / 0 0 5 60
PLACITAS........................ 57 89 63 85 / 0 0 5 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 92 62 89 / 0 0 5 50
SOCORRO......................... 59 96 65 92 / 0 0 5 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 86 59 81 / 0 0 5 70
TIJERAS......................... 54 86 58 82 / 0 0 5 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 88 57 82 / 0 0 10 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 89 53 83 / 0 0 10 80
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 85 54 77 / 0 5 5 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 88 54 83 / 0 5 5 80
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 86 55 81 / 0 10 5 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 90 62 85 / 0 10 5 80
RUIDOSO......................... 56 83 57 77 / 0 40 5 90
CAPULIN......................... 47 82 50 74 / 0 0 0 70
RATON........................... 46 87 51 79 / 0 0 0 70
SPRINGER........................ 46 89 52 79 / 0 0 0 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 86 53 76 / 0 0 5 90
CLAYTON......................... 53 90 56 81 / 0 0 5 70
ROY............................. 51 87 55 78 / 0 0 5 70
CONCHAS......................... 55 94 59 85 / 0 10 10 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 91 57 82 / 0 20 5 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 96 61 88 / 0 20 10 70
CLOVIS.......................... 60 95 60 88 / 0 20 10 50
PORTALES........................ 60 95 60 89 / 0 20 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 94 59 86 / 0 20 10 70
ROSWELL......................... 63 97 64 90 / 0 20 10 50
PICACHO......................... 57 91 59 84 / 0 40 10 80
ELK............................. 56 91 57 84 / 0 30 20 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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