589
FXUS65 KABQ 170930
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 155 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
- THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND HUMIDITIES PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE-DIGITS.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, AND ALSO ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIP WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH A LOW RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE TODAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR AND ABOVE DAILY RECORDS. THE HEAT WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS READINGS
PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 100S FROM ALBUQUERQUE SOUTHWARD, AND ALSO
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. DANGEROUS HEAT IS
FORECAST IN ROSWELL, WHERE THE MERCURY SHOULD REACH AROUND 110 F.
WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING THAT
WERE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, AND
EXPAND THE COVERAGE TO INCLUDE QUAY, CURRY, AND ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE DAY SHIFT MAY OPT TO ADD DE BACA COUNTY AS WELL WHEN
THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE ARRIVES. MEANWHILE, COUPLED WITH THE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE A FEW TO 12 HOURS OF SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY
IN MOST LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL WEST OF SANTA ROSA. AN
AREA WITH LESS WIND TODAY WILL BE EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS, WHERE WINDS WILL VEER FROM OUT OF THE NORTH, TO OUT OF
THE EAST, TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE HOT THERE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S.
THERE IS A 15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING GLENWOOD AND
RESERVE, WHERE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER
SOUTHERN CA WILL STEER SOME ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SOME OF
THESE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL REACHING
THE SURFACE. HIGH RES MODELS ALSO DEPICT GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THESE ARE FORECAST TO SEND A BROAD GUST FRONT WITH A
30 MPH TO POTENTIALLY 45 MPH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHEAST NM BETWEEN 01-04Z, INCLUDING RATON, LAS VEGAS, ROY,
AND EVENTUALLY CLAYTON AND CONCHAS.
THE EXTREME HEAT WILL BE SHORTLIVED, SINCE A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING, THEN WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH A
GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
A ~ 1012 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE GREAT PLAINS
PROPAGATING IT, THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME, MODELS SUGGEST EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS IN
THE CENTRAL VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PEAK AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, IT COULD BLOW IN STRONG WITH
EXPECTED ENHANCEMENT FROM GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FRONT, AND MODEST AMOUNTS
OF ELEVATED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
SHOULD ENABLE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM GALLUP TO ALBUQUERQUE. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO
STABLE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
FROM TUCUMCARI NORTHWARD. THERE SHOULD BE QUITE A FEW GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING IN THE MIX. WETTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 4 TO 16 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020
AVERAGES TODAY, READINGS WILL FALL A FEW TO 22 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, LEAVING EASTERN AREAS AS MUCH AS 12 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERN HIGHS WILL STILL BE A
FEW TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
OVER EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY PASS OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN; EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS CELLS
OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO FORECAST OVER THE
CENTRAL VALLEY, NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS,
WEST CENTRAL AREAS, AND SOUTHWEST AREAS, IN THE FORM OF GUSTY
VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINTS IN THE
JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS. PWATS LOOK TO
PEAK FRIDAY AROUND 1 INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, AND OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
ON SATURDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE THE GFS, CANADIAN, AND EUROPEAN MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR SOME ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED CELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. A DRIER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO STEER SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR OVER NM BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PROBABLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL
ON SUNDAY. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
DIG, AND THUS HOW STRONG DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME IN THE
WEST ON SATURDAY AND OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND
IF THE WINDS GET STRONG ENOUGH, BECAUSE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO
PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE DRIER AIR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.
MODELS NOW DIFFER ON WHEN A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
POTENTIALLY INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL REACH EASTERN NM AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY, THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH SOME DRIER AND GUSTIER CELLS POSSIBLE AS FAR
WEST AS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. PERSISTENT GULF
MOISTURE RETURN MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY, SHOULD
ENABLE AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN SOME STORMS WILL PROBABLY
TURN SEVERE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST
AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TWO THIRDS OF NM WITH GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING FROM 30 TO 40 KT
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS, AND UP TO 25 KT SOUTHEAST. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE FORECAST EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST, WHERE THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND FROM NORTH, TO EAST, TO
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALSO, ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL PRODUCE STRONG THERMALS WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOAR NEAR AND ABOVE DAILY RECORDS MAKING DENSITY
ALTITUDE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS NEAR
COMPLEX TERRAIN. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING GLENWOOD AND RESERVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SOME CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND
ERRATIC DRY OR MOSTLY DRY MICROBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, AS
WELL AS SOME SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN
ADDITION, THE LATEST HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT A CLUSTER OF VIRGA
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, WHILE SHOOTING OUT A BROAD GUST FRONT WITH A
25-40 KT NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST NM
BETWEEN 01-04Z, INCLUDING RATON, LAS VEGAS, ROY, AND EVENTUALLY
CLAYTON AND CONCHAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND OVER
CENTRAL AREAS WEST OF SANTA ROSA, AS NORTHWEST WIND GUST PEAK IN
THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ENABLE DEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING BETWEEN 14-18K FEET TODAY, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AND ABOVE DAILY RECORDS, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF
SINGLE-DIGIT MINIMUM HUMIDITY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND
RANGE TO THE ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
FORECAST THERE, AS WELL AS ONGOING NEARBY WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. POOR
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AGAIN
TONIGHT. A GUSTY AND MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND EAST CANYON WIND
GUSTS FROM 25-35 MPH IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM SANTA FE
SOUTHWARD LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BECOME ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS AND THE RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. THIS CONCERN
MAY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
SATURDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SUGGESTS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
DUE TO STRENGTHENING HOT, DRY, AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS
NOW SHOW LESS WIND FOR SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 99 62 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 95 47 92 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 94 57 93 56 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 90 59 87 56 / 0 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 95 61 92 57 / 0 0 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 90 59 87 56 / 0 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 92 68 89 63 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 88 63 86 58 / 0 0 10 20
RESERVE......................... 94 52 89 50 / 30 10 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 97 56 93 54 / 30 20 30 10
CHAMA........................... 88 47 84 48 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 66 87 62 / 0 0 10 20
PECOS........................... 93 60 88 54 / 0 0 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 90 58 85 55 / 0 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 81 49 75 46 / 0 5 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 48 79 41 / 0 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 93 54 87 53 / 0 0 5 5
MORA............................ 91 59 82 52 / 0 0 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 99 61 94 60 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 93 64 90 61 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 97 60 93 58 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 98 71 95 67 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 68 96 68 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 68 97 65 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 69 97 66 / 0 0 0 10
BELEN........................... 101 68 99 63 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 99 69 98 66 / 0 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 66 97 62 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 100 69 98 66 / 0 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 68 98 63 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 97 69 93 65 / 0 0 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 69 96 66 / 0 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 102 75 99 69 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 65 90 60 / 0 0 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 95 64 91 60 / 0 0 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 96 64 90 58 / 0 0 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 62 91 55 / 0 0 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 92 62 84 55 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 97 64 90 57 / 0 0 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 65 89 57 / 0 0 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 99 68 93 64 / 0 0 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 90 63 84 58 / 0 0 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 92 54 75 50 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 98 56 81 51 / 0 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 97 57 81 52 / 0 5 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 95 61 82 52 / 0 0 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 99 62 77 54 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 96 61 77 54 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 102 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 100 66 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 65 82 62 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 103 66 82 62 / 0 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 104 67 84 61 / 0 0 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 103 68 87 61 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 110 76 96 68 / 0 0 5 20
PICACHO......................... 99 71 91 62 / 0 0 10 20
ELK............................. 97 67 89 59 / 0 0 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ101-105-106-109-120.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ219-234>236.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ124-125.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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