677
FXUS65 KABQ 031138 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
438 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
- A FEW MORE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE
BEGINS. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ON THURSDAY AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, BUT ENOUGH BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PEAK AT THE BLOOD MOON EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
MAIN CHANGE TODAY IS THAT FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE BACKED OFF A
LITTLE FOR EASTERN NM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
CROSS CO BUT THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
THIS WAS ALWAYS THE CASE, MID LEVEL WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO DIMINISH
FASTER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THEREFORE, DESPITE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS FOR EARLY MARCH, THERE JUST WON'T BE
AS MUCH MOMENTUM TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. NONETHELESS, BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS WITH MAX WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 3 TO 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, BUT DOWNSLOPING WILL KEEP TEMPS
QUITE WARM ACROSS EASTERN NM. A FEW RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BROKEN THIS AFTERNOON, INCLUDING ROSWELL AND
PORTALES.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES FROM THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EASTWARD, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS. PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD LOCALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TAP FOR EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY ACROSS THE EAST, ALL
AREAS OF NM WILL STILL BE 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST AREAS. WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE. OVERALL, IT WILL BE A GREAT DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAKLY CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER UT. AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NM. AT H7,
30-40KT WILL BE COMMON THURSDAY, THOUGH FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE NEAR 550MB WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AT THE
SURFACE, A LOW WILL DEEPEN TO NEAR 992-993MB ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO.
THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 OR 50 MPH. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL AID IN
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH LESS
CHANGE ELSEWHERE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW,
BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL LARGELY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM INITIATING IN NM
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO TX.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CO WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
SHORTWAVE TURNED CLOSED LOW WILL RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ON SATURDAY AS THE
LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MIGHT FINALLY GET A NUDGE EASTWARD
ON MONDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THIS BIGGER PICTURE,
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. AS THE INITIAL SYSTEM
CROSSES CO, A FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NM ON FRIDAY FROM WEST TO
EAST. THEN, A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD ACROSS NM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT ONCE
PROMISED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS SEEM
QUITE BLEAK WITH REGARDS TO THAT. GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NM FRIDAY).
WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AND BY LATE DAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY START RETURNING TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS, WE COULD START TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THAT SAID, THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE EJECTING UPPER LOW NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 KT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET, HOWEVER, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT. THESE GUSTS WILL LAST FOR A FEW HOURS
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE DIMINISHING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. THE FAVORED AREA FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IS WITHIN A BOUNDED REGION FROM LAS VEGAS, TO CLINES
CORNERS, TO CONCHAS, TO SANTA ROSA. IN THIS AREA, AT LEAST 5 HOURS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, 1 TO 3 HOURS OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS QUAY AND CURRY
COUNTIES. WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH RH
FALLING TO BETWEEN 7 AND 15 PERCENT. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING IN ITS ENTIRETY. TONIGHT, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 35 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND WILL RESULT IN
A QUIETER WEDNESDAY, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM, THOUGH NEARLY ALL AREAS WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT.
ERC VALUES ARE CLIMBING AREAWIDE, BUT THE HIGHEST ERCS EXIST FROM
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD, AND THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST THAT HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST AND THUS WHERE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE. THAT SAID, CONCERN IS
GROWING FOR WESTERN NM AS WELL. ON FRIDAY, BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PLAGUE EASTERN NM AND ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS
AND RH VALUES BELOW 12 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 60 22 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 64 22 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 30 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 25 67 25 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 66 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 71 37 67 40 / 5 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 65 32 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 29 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 33 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 54 24 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 35 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 62 30 62 33 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 30 58 34 / 0 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 25 49 30 / 5 10 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 19 55 23 / 0 10 5 0
TAOS............................ 63 25 62 26 / 0 5 0 0
MORA............................ 64 28 62 31 / 0 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 70 30 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 64 35 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 41 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 37 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 77 34 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 73 38 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 33 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 68 39 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 40 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 36 62 39 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 66 37 65 40 / 0 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 68 33 66 36 / 0 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 29 67 30 / 0 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 31 62 34 / 0 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 33 66 37 / 0 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 34 67 38 / 0 5 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 40 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 38 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 65 26 61 33 / 10 10 0 0
RATON........................... 67 26 64 27 / 10 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 28 67 27 / 5 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 29 63 33 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 34 64 40 / 5 10 0 0
ROY............................. 72 32 63 36 / 0 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 80 36 71 39 / 0 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 35 69 39 / 0 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 35 70 42 / 0 10 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 83 39 69 45 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 37 70 44 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 42 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 38 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 78 37 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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