879
FXUS65 KABQ 042321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 411 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
- OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT FOUR DAYS, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN STORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY'S READINGS, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH A REX BLOCK PATTERN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WIND REGIME
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER 35 KT 700 MB WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WILL CREATE SOME BREEZIER WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG
THE STATE BORDER IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
REGION.
THE REX BLOCK HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SLIDE OVER INTO THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON THURSDAY. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER NEW
MEXICO, MOSTLY CALM AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, CLIMBING UP
TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
RIDGE, A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND INTRODUCE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, AS A WEAK
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, SOME
BREEZIER 15 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
EAST-CENTRAL AREAS ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE LOW PRESSURE
SEGMENT OF THE FORMER REX BLOCK BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA, STEERING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW BEING
SO FAR SOUTHWEST AND LITTLE FORCING AVAILABLE OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SONORAN AND
CHIHUAHUAN DESERTS AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EXACTLY WHEN
AND WHERE IS STILL A POINT OF CONTENTION AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOST COMMON SOLUTION AMONG GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME IS FOR THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM PERTURBATION AND
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. HOWEVER, BREEZIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE STATE FOR FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TAKES HOLD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. CURRENT LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CLUSTERS SEEM TO
FAVOR A TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
AND BREEZIER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
THIN, WISPY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO, BUT THESE WILL POSE NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. BREEZES HAVE SETTLED FOR THE MOST PART,
AND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
LIGHT WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE RISING
HUMIDITY IN A FEW AREAS SUCH AS THE LOWER PECOS VALLEY. THERE IS
A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) OF FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KROW AROUND DAWN THURSDAY, BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AND HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE TAF FOR THIS AIRPORT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST WED FEB 4 2026
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR NEW MEXICO.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS,
WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S. VENTILATION RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE POOR ACROSS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A STABLE AIRMASS
MOVES OVER THE REGION. VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS BECOME BREEZIER. GREATER MOISTURE
AND LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 18 61 21 62 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 23 57 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 61 19 61 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 25 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 60 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 23 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 57 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 25 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 66 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 67 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 21 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 25 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 48 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 54 16 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 59 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 21 63 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 60 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 62 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 23 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 61 25 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 29 61 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 25 61 27 64 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 29 62 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 54 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 56 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 57 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 60 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 56 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 28 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 57 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 21 56 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 20 59 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 62 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 60 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 27 62 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 23 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 67 28 71 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 26 63 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 67 28 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 28 67 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 26 67 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 66 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 26 62 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 27 65 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 24 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52
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