053
FXUS65 KABQ 292332 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
- STORMS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FLASH
FLOODING COULD RESULT WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
REPEATEDLY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE 597DM H5 MONSOON HIGH HAS PROGRESSED WELL OVER EASTERN NM AND
WESTERN TX, ALLOWING FOR A HEALTHY MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE TO
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE 18Z ABQ UA SOUNDING
HAS TICKED UP TO 0.99" IN RESPONSE. AN AREA OF BROKEN CLOUD COVER
WITH SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED
OVERNIGHT AND THRU THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN AZ AND IS NOW
PROGRESSING FURTHER INTO NORTHWESTERN NM. SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CI ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL ALSO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON THRU
WEST-CENTRAL NM NORTHWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
EMANATING FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT, AND
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSING FROM BELEN TO ABQ TO SANTA FE.
SOME BLOWING DUST COULD BE KICKED UP BY THESE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
INTERRUPTING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE EASTERN PLAINS REMAIN HOT AND
DRY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100F. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK.
CONDITIONS CALM OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THE H5 HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST OVER ARK-LA-
TEX REGION ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE MONSOON PLUME INTO
EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL
AGAIN FAVOR STORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, WITH SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION
TRYING TO REACH INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NM. GUSTY WINDS BLOWING AROUND DUST WILL BE THE MAIN
RESULTING IMPACT FOR AREAS BETWEEN SOCORRO TO ABQ TO SANTA FE, WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. THERE IS ALSO
A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NM WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PASS OVER THE SAME
AREAS REPEATEDLY. EASTERN NM REMAINS HOT AND DRY BOTH DAYS.
MONDAY'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FEATURES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM CA ABSORBING A REMNANT
CONVECTIVE VORT-MAX MOVING NORTHWARD AMID THE MONSOON PLUME. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST SKIES AND PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE CONDITIONS A FAIR AMOUNT. THIS
WOULD IN TURN LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE H5 HIGH EXPANDING
WESTWARD OVER EASTERN NM, REDUCING THE PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE QUESTIONS REMAINS BY HOW MUCH WITH
SOME RUNS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH
OTHERS MAINTAINING A MORE STEADY DECLINE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HIGHS WILL CLIMB AGAIN THRU CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM HOWEVER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TYPICAL AVIATION HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS UNDER THE
STRONGER CELLS. MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE AND DIE
OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY REDEVELOP WITH
ADDITIONAL BATCHES OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN
DESTABILIZE WITH NEW STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE FILLING IN TO NEARBY VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE MAIN
MONSOON HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD BRINGS DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND BLOWING DUST FAVORED THRU
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL
EXIST THRU WESTERN, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL AGAIN TUESDAY AND BEYOND FOR WESTERN
NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 87 61 79 / 40 40 60 60
DULCE........................... 49 86 52 80 / 50 40 50 60
CUBA............................ 57 85 57 79 / 40 40 50 60
GALLUP.......................... 55 86 55 77 / 50 50 70 70
EL MORRO........................ 54 82 54 76 / 40 40 60 60
GRANTS.......................... 57 86 56 79 / 30 50 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 57 83 56 78 / 30 60 50 60
MAGDALENA....................... 62 86 62 84 / 20 40 20 50
DATIL........................... 57 82 56 78 / 20 50 30 50
RESERVE......................... 56 91 57 85 / 20 40 50 50
GLENWOOD........................ 62 97 61 91 / 20 30 40 40
CHAMA........................... 51 79 51 76 / 50 40 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 84 61 82 / 30 40 30 40
PECOS........................... 60 88 58 86 / 10 10 5 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 83 55 82 / 20 30 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 49 75 47 74 / 20 20 20 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 81 41 80 / 10 20 20 70
TAOS............................ 55 87 54 85 / 20 20 20 40
MORA............................ 55 85 55 83 / 10 20 5 50
ESPANOLA........................ 61 91 60 90 / 20 30 30 40
SANTA FE........................ 63 88 61 86 / 10 20 5 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 91 59 89 / 10 20 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 96 65 94 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 94 67 92 / 20 20 20 20
BELEN........................... 65 96 64 93 / 20 20 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 68 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 95 62 93 / 20 20 20 20
CORRALES........................ 68 95 66 93 / 20 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 95 63 93 / 20 20 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 68 92 65 90 / 20 20 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 94 66 92 / 20 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 89 60 87 / 10 20 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 63 89 61 87 / 10 10 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 5 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 93 56 91 / 10 10 5 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 89 59 87 / 10 10 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 91 59 89 / 10 10 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 90 59 89 / 5 10 5 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 94 66 92 / 0 5 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 60 86 60 85 / 5 10 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 88 58 86 / 10 20 10 30
RATON........................... 57 91 55 90 / 10 20 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 57 94 56 93 / 10 10 5 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 89 57 88 / 10 10 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 70 98 68 95 / 5 5 5 5
ROY............................. 63 93 62 91 / 5 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 72 101 70 99 / 5 0 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 96 66 95 / 5 5 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 101 72 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 100 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 100 69 99 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 65 97 64 95 / 0 5 5 10
ELK............................. 61 95 62 93 / 0 10 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...52
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