834
FXUS65 KABQ 261134 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE 00Z ABQ SOUNDING BOASTED A 1.04" PWAT AFTER THE STORMS LATE
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ONGOING NOW, LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING, THOUGH THE PWAT WILL LIKELY DROP
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON AS ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS OVERHEAD. STORM MOTIONS WILL REMAIN QUICK,
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH TOWARD THE EAST. SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY, MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL, BUT
SOME LUCKY FOLKS WILL RECEIVE UP TO ONE HALF INCH OR SO. IN
ADDITION TO THE RAIN, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE THE RULE ONCE AGAIN. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND
SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH, BUT ALSO LIKE YESTERDAY, A FEW WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN POISED OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
OVERNIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SHIFT OVER NM. DAYTIME
MIXING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL MIX OUT TODAY'S MOISTURE AND
REPLACE IT WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS, INCLUDING GALLUP,
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. THUS, A FEW WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
TO 15 PERCENT OR LOWER. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING, EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN WHERE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP AREAWIDE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY, BUT HUMIDITIES WILL FALL A FEW MORE PERCENT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT RESIDES.
WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A LARGE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO NM. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL
THE MOISTURE SHIFT WESTWARD. INITIALLY, THE RETURN FLOW WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM ON MONDAY, WHILE DRY AND BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. EVEN ON MONDAY, STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. IT LOOKS LIKE BETTER
STORM CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY BE FOCUSED AND THEN EVEN MORE STORM COVERAGE
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE PLUME SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD EACH DAY. HOWEVER, THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER TO
SHIFT THE MOISTURE PLUME WESTWARD. IF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT,
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE MINIMAL UNTIL
AFTER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS FAR NE NM THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 13Z. ADDITIONALLY,
LIFR TO IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VSBYS WILL OCCASIONALLY GO DOWN AROUND KCAO IN
BR THROUGH 14Z AND THE LOW CIGS SHOULD ERODE BY 16Z. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45KT, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED BLDU. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 06Z
AND THEN DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE
SPOTTY, BUT LIKE THURSDAY, SOME AREAS MAY PICK UP OVER ONE HALF
INCH OF RAIN. UNFORTUNATELY, QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING WAS NOTED
YESTERDAY, AND MORE IS EXPECTED TODAY. MUCH OF WHAT OCCURRED WAS
OVER DRY FUELS, THUS THERE IS EXTREME CONCERN THAT LIGHTNING-
STARTED FIRES WILL MAKE THEMSELVES KNOWN OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FOR THE SAME AREAS. SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH, POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN A FEW AREAS, WITH
HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS. FUELS ARE DRIEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NM AND THIS IS WHERE
THE GREATEST CONCERN LIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
MOSAIC OF FUELS (SOME GREEN UP, SOME NOT) EXIST ELSEWHERE.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE AS BEEN SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF WETTING RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, AND MORE WILL OCCUR TODAY. THIS WILL DO
LITTLE TO MITIGATE FUEL DRYNESS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, BUT WILL
EXACERBATE THE MOSAIC OF FUELS AND FIRE RECEPTION ELSEWHERE.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY HELP DRY OUT FUELS FROM THIS WEEKS RAINFALL,
AND SUNDAY WE MAY SEE MORE HOLDOVER FIRES APPEAR AND GROW. DRY AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS WELL. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. A
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SET UP ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN NM AFTER
MONDAY, INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THAT AREA, BUT WESTERN
AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 58 92 59 / 60 40 0 0
DULCE........................... 85 46 87 47 / 70 70 5 0
CUBA............................ 84 53 87 54 / 70 50 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 86 53 87 53 / 40 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 53 84 53 / 50 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 87 53 89 53 / 60 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 55 86 55 / 60 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 86 61 89 62 / 70 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 84 57 85 57 / 50 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 90 52 90 52 / 20 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 95 57 95 56 / 10 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 78 45 79 46 / 70 80 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 59 86 62 / 70 40 0 0
PECOS........................... 86 55 88 57 / 30 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 52 82 54 / 50 60 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 43 75 45 / 50 60 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 42 78 43 / 40 50 0 0
TAOS............................ 84 51 86 53 / 50 50 5 0
MORA............................ 82 52 84 53 / 40 40 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 89 57 93 58 / 60 50 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 85 59 88 60 / 40 40 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 57 92 58 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 92 64 95 66 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 66 95 67 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 59 97 60 / 50 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 62 96 64 / 50 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 95 60 98 62 / 50 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 93 61 96 64 / 60 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 58 96 60 / 50 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 94 61 97 64 / 50 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 59 97 61 / 50 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 89 63 93 65 / 60 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 62 95 64 / 60 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 96 67 100 68 / 50 20 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 58 89 61 / 50 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 88 59 90 61 / 40 30 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 56 91 60 / 40 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 53 92 56 / 30 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 56 87 58 / 30 20 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 89 58 92 60 / 40 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 59 90 61 / 30 20 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 94 67 / 10 20 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 87 59 87 59 / 20 20 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 85 52 88 55 / 30 30 0 0
RATON........................... 89 52 91 55 / 30 20 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 91 55 93 57 / 30 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 87 57 88 60 / 30 20 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 89 61 96 65 / 50 50 0 0
ROY............................. 89 59 92 61 / 20 30 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 97 64 100 67 / 20 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 64 96 66 / 20 30 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 67 100 70 / 20 40 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 96 67 99 69 / 10 30 0 5
PORTALES........................ 98 68 100 70 / 10 30 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 66 100 68 / 20 30 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 101 70 104 71 / 20 20 5 5
PICACHO......................... 95 65 97 67 / 40 20 5 0
ELK............................. 92 63 93 64 / 40 20 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ101-104-
105-109-120-121-123-125.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ101-104-105-109-120-121-123-125.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page