976
FXUS65 KABQ 041148 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
- SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED MULTIPLE DAYS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE AT HIGHEST RISK FOR FLOODING, INCLUDING
URBAN LOCATIONS AND NEAR BURN SCARS.
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL THREATEN STRONG AND ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING, AND RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHWEST MX DRIFTING EAST WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NM AND TX. SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND THE BORDERLAND AT
130AM. PWATS NEAR 1" WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF NM TODAY WITH EVEN WEAKER STEERING FLOW AND SIMILAR BUOYANCY
TO YESTERDAY. RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
NM TODAY WILL PROVIDE A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE ABQ AREA WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY FOR EASTERN NM. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT SO STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TAPER OFF
AFTER SUNSET. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW TOWARD THE SOUTH AGAIN
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING HIGHEST IN AREAS THAT HAVE
PICKED UP MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN.
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN MX WILL BEGIN SPEEDING UP WHILE
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE PERMIAN BASIN FRIDAY. AN UPTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS MID LEVEL STRETCHING AND DEFORMATION
INCREASES BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING
OVER AZ. MOIST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL ALLOW STORMS TO ERUPT BY LATE MORNING THEN MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
INTO NEARBY VALLEYS AND HIGHLANDS. AN AREA OF INCREASED SHEAR MAY
HELP TO SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONG STORMS AS WELL AROUND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND LOWER RGV. THE RUIDOSO AREA MAY SEE STEERING FLOW
PROPAGATE STORMS UP-BASIN THUS INCREASING THE FLASH FLOOD RISK
BELOW BURN SCARS. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PERMIAN BASIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WEST TX SATURDAY WHILE THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS OVER
SOUTHERN AZ. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTH TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW OVER
THE REGION WHILE MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN NM. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN THEN MOVE SOUTH ON OUTFLOWS INTO
NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE UPPER HIGH OVER AZ WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SPREAD DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FARTHER EAST INTO
NM WITH A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPS.
WESTERLY BREEZES WILL ALSO PICK UP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
AN AREA OF SHRA/TS OVER SOUTHEAST NM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THRU
8AM WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TX. THE NEXT CROP
OF SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
BY 1PM THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS THRU SUNSET. DIRECT HITS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, SMALL
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF
TO ISOLATED SHRA THRU 10PM FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN THE DRIEST PORTION OF THE STATE THRU EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
SUBCRITICAL IN THE SAME AREAS THRU SATURDAY THEN TREND STRONGER
SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MAY CREATE
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. WESTERN
NM IS ALSO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST ERCS. EASTERN NM WILL SEE THE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL THRU SATURDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS BETWEEN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CONT
DIVIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 56 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 87 44 90 45 / 5 0 10 0
CUBA............................ 85 52 87 53 / 10 5 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 88 49 89 49 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 83 51 85 52 / 10 5 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 86 51 89 52 / 20 5 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 85 52 86 54 / 10 5 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 81 57 84 58 / 20 10 10 10
DATIL........................... 80 53 83 54 / 20 5 10 10
RESERVE......................... 88 48 91 50 / 20 10 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 91 51 95 51 / 50 5 10 10
CHAMA........................... 80 43 82 44 / 10 0 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 57 84 58 / 40 10 10 0
PECOS........................... 84 50 85 50 / 20 10 40 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 51 84 51 / 30 10 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 73 43 75 43 / 30 5 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 39 79 44 / 30 5 40 0
TAOS............................ 83 48 86 50 / 10 5 20 0
MORA............................ 81 48 83 50 / 30 10 40 5
ESPANOLA........................ 89 54 92 57 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 83 56 85 57 / 10 10 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 53 88 55 / 10 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 63 91 64 / 10 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 90 62 93 61 / 5 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 62 95 60 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 91 61 93 62 / 10 5 5 10
BELEN........................... 91 60 93 59 / 5 0 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 91 60 93 62 / 10 5 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 91 60 93 57 / 5 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 93 61 94 62 / 10 5 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 91 61 93 59 / 5 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 88 61 90 62 / 10 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 91 60 93 61 / 10 5 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 91 61 94 63 / 5 5 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 57 86 57 / 10 5 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 85 56 87 56 / 10 5 30 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 53 87 54 / 20 5 30 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 50 88 51 / 20 10 30 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 53 84 52 / 20 10 40 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 83 53 85 52 / 20 5 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 54 83 53 / 20 10 50 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 59 83 59 / 30 10 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 74 53 76 54 / 70 10 50 30
CAPULIN......................... 80 48 82 49 / 30 10 30 10
RATON........................... 84 49 88 51 / 20 10 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 84 50 87 52 / 20 10 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 50 84 52 / 30 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 85 56 87 56 / 10 10 5 10
ROY............................. 83 52 84 54 / 20 20 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 89 58 91 59 / 20 20 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 55 87 56 / 20 20 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 89 60 91 59 / 10 20 5 30
CLOVIS.......................... 86 60 87 59 / 20 10 5 20
PORTALES........................ 87 60 88 58 / 20 20 5 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 58 87 58 / 10 20 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 86 60 87 61 / 10 10 10 20
PICACHO......................... 82 55 84 56 / 30 10 20 20
ELK............................. 81 53 82 54 / 50 20 40 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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