534
FXUS65 KABQ 141737 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE SUNDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING
WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THIS MORNING THE POLAR JET IS QUASI-ZONAL ENTERING SOUTHERN BC AND
ALBERTA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A SHORTWAVE CARVING OUT NEAR
THE WA STATE BORDER. THIS PERTURBATION WILL RAPIDLY ADVANCE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE JET QUICKLY GAINS A
MERIDIONAL COMPONENT WITH A SEGMENT OF 170 KT WINDS PROJECTED ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER NM ARE
INITIALLY GOING TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE
RAMPING UP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING
(DOWN TO ~990 MB) OVER EASTERN CO, AND WESTERN NE AND KS. DESPITE A
THICKENING CANOPY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM TODAY, ONLY DEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERTICAL MIXING.
THIS WILL ALL COMBINE TO INITIATE A LATE AFTERNOON SURGE IN WIND
SPEEDS WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET
WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING COMMON (LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS). THESE SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DAYTIME TODAY, BUT THEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT, GIVEN SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITY. MANY AREAS WILL SOAR INTO THE 70'S AND 80'S TODAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 12 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PLUNGE TOWARD CO TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE RIDGETOP LEVEL WINDS TO KEEP INTENSIFYING
OVERNIGHT, AND 700 MB SPEEDS ARE MODELED TO REACH 50 TO 70 KT OVER
MUCH OF THE HIGHLAND AREAS OF NM. WITH SPEEDS OF 40 TO 60 KT AT 700
MB ALSO JUXTAPOSED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, THE HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL BE EXPANDED TO MOUNT TAYLOR, THE ZUNI MOUNTAINS, AND
SOUTHWESTERN RANGES (MAGDALENA, SAN MATEO, AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GILA) FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
RIDGES AND PEAKS BEGIN TO GET BUFFETED BY THE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WILL STAY BREEZY WITH
PERIODIC NOCTURNAL GUSTS.
BOTH THE PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR SEGMENTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL
INTO NM AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STARTING POINT, SUNDAY'S HIGHS
WILL ONLY DROP BELOW AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION, TIGHT PACKING OF THE ISOBARS WILL YIELD STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE DOMINANT COMPONENT TURNS
MORE NORTHERLY. AT THIS POINT, MUCH OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH LOOKS TO
LIKELY BE UPGRADED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WITH A LEGITIMATE AND HIGH
CHANCE (60 TO 80%) OF GUSTS REACHING 70 MPH ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A PLETHORA OF ADVISORIES WILL ALSO BE
NEEDED TO SURROUND THE WARNINGS. BLOWING DUST WILL BE A BIG CONCERN,
AS WILL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, AS MODEL CONSENSUS STILL ADVERTISES
REMARKABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS TUMBLING SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW ZERO (F). SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY PRECIPITATION
FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES,
AND CAMS ARE ALSO NOT SHOWING ANYTHING WITH VERY HIGH DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WINNING OUT.
THE TROUGH WILL HAVE DEEPENED INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE SETTLING SOUTHWARD, CROSSING THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES BEFORE MOVING OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP A
COOLER AIRMASS AND ENHANCED SURFACE GRADIENT ALIGNED ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM (SUBDUED COLD AIR DAMMING) WITH A SHORT
OPPORTUNITY FOR AN EASTERLY WIND TO SNEAK INTO GAPS AND CANYONS
TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE. ANY GAP/CANYON WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF
AND ONLY BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE
STARKLY COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH A HARD FREEZE CATCHING PREMATURELY
BUDDING AND BLOOMING VEGETATION BY SURPRISE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAYTIME
MONDAY, ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS WITH
MODERATELY BREEZY SPEEDS BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
COOL A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THIS SURFACE HIGH. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
MODELED TO STILL BE RELATIVELY STIFF (700 MB SPEEDS OF 15 TO 40 KT)
ON MONDAY. WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY IN
NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES. DESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT, MOST OF THESE NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE ABLE
TO GAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK CAN BE SUMMARIZED A BIT MORE SUCCINCTLY WITH LESS DYNAMIC
DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE (500 MB
HEIGHTS NEAR 590 DECAMETERS) WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN AND STRENGTHENING MORE
INTO WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY (500 MB HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN
593 TO 595 DECAMETERS BY WED/THU). A MUCH LIGHTER WIND FIELD WILL OF
COURSE BE PRESENT WITHIN THE RIDGE, SO THIS WILL BRING A WELCOME
RESPITE FROM THE GUSTY CONDITIONS, BUT THE STAGE IS BEING SET FOR
WIDESPREAD ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (40 TO 80%
CHANCES) FOR RECORD-BREAKING HIGHS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CIRRUS IS SPREADING EAST INTO NM TODAY AND SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL
OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35KT COMMON AT TERMINALS BY 2PM. TURBULENCE
WILL ALSO INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT ALONG WITH
STRONG LLWS ALL AREAS. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL START HOWLING AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN TRANSLATE TO EAST SLOPE AREAS AND MUCH OF THE LOWER
TERRAIN AND EASTERN NM AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. WEST/NORTHWEST GUSTS
WILL REACH 35 TO 50KT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV BY NOON PEAK THRU
THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 128 AM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MET OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES. THERE
WILL STILL BE A SURGE UP IN WIND SPEEDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX ALOFT
APPROACH. THEREFORE, WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE
LATTER ZONES WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
US TO FOCUS OUR MESSAGE ON THE BIGGER AND MORE IMPACTFUL DAY,
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, TODAY'S WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (BY 12-22
DEGREES) AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WILL EASILY YIELD WIDESPREAD LOW
HUMIDITY OF 5 TO 10%. WINDS ALOFT KEEP INCREASING OVERNIGHT, SO
RIDGETOPS AND PEAKS WILL STAY GUSTY WITH POOR RH RECOVERY (20 TO 35%
IN MOST ZONES) THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, THE PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR SEGMENTS OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT CONTRARY TO MOST
CONCEPTUAL MODELS, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A CONTINUATION OF EXTREMELY LOW
HUMIDITY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION. NORTHEASTERN ZONES
ARE STILL PROJECTED TO COOL INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S, AND THAT MIGHT
OFFER A SLIGHT MITIGATION TO FIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER, IN REMAINING
AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AND COULD CARRY FIRE MORE
READILY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH FOR MOST ZONES. HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH WILL EVEN BE FOUND OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR SUNDAY,
BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF UPGRADING ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.
AFTER A MUCH COLDER NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
AS WIDESPREAD INTO THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. AREAS WITH PESKY GUSTY
WINDS WOULD TEND TO STAY OVER NORTHWESTERN AND PERHAPS SOME CENTRAL
HIGHLAND ZONES WHERE A COUPLE TO A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINALLY CRITICAL COMPARED
TO SUNDAY, AND WOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS LONG IN DURATION.
A WELCOME REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS WILL COME TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GROWS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN STATES. DESPITE THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF
EXTREMELY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 72 38 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 69 32 55 16 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 70 36 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 34 59 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 36 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 72 36 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 71 40 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 74 46 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 70 43 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 76 37 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 79 41 77 32 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 62 28 49 15 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 41 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 69 40 55 17 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 34 46 19 / 0 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 61 26 38 12 / 0 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 27 43 5 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 71 33 52 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 70 38 52 16 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 77 43 60 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 70 41 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 42 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 47 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 47 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 47 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 48 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 82 47 69 26 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 80 47 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 45 67 25 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 81 48 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 47 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 75 46 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 47 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 85 50 74 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 43 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 75 43 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 75 44 58 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 43 60 14 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 42 55 17 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 75 44 61 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 46 62 21 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 48 69 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 48 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 26 41 10 / 0 0 10 0
RATON........................... 75 32 47 10 / 0 0 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 77 39 52 10 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 42 56 15 / 0 0 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 80 34 41 13 / 0 0 10 0
ROY............................. 77 42 51 15 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 85 48 61 16 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 51 64 18 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 47 56 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 86 50 61 18 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 86 51 65 17 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 52 69 18 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 52 78 24 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 55 73 22 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 81 52 72 21 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ104-123-125.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ206-208-212>215-218-219-221>224-226>240.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...42
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