820
FXUS65 KABQ 271914
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
114 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL POSE A RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AGAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOAKING RAIN TO MANY LOCATIONS WITH PONDING ON ROADS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERN, AND SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE MIX
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE A
35-45 MPH CROSSWIND ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH ROADS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE WELL BELOW YESTERDAY'S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NV WILL RACE EAST OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY MORNING, STEERING STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN NM. WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THESE
STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. DOWNSLOPE WARMING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND ROSWELL IS FORECAST TO HIT A HIGH OF 90 DEGREES. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWEST, DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY ON WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
WOBBLES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE OF SOCAL. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN SOME ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP-UP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW. THE LATEST MODELING SHOWS THE PACIFIC LOW
MOVING EAST FROM OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
OPENING UP AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MX AND SOUTHERN
NM GOING INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELING, BUT THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS DOES FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES FOR SOAKING
PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER KEY INGREDIENT IS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT,
FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE FORCING ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED QPF. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE A HIGH POP
SCENARIO AND SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS. THIS STILL LOOKS
LIKE A MUCH-NEEDED AND BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WITH ELEVATED STREAM
FLOWS POSSIBLE, BUT VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR FLASH FLOODING
(INCLUDING IN RUIDOSO). LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHERN NM THU/FRI, BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO FALL THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO BETWEEN 8-9KFT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION AT/ABOVE 9KFT AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS,
ALTHOUGH MORE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND WITH WEAKER FORCING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD, BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE
HIGHS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AN IMPRESSIVE 20-30 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT A BRIEF WARM-UP AND DRYING PERIOD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY UNDER WEAK RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT WELL BELOW YESTERDAY'S SPEEDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT MON APR 27 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING BOUTS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME MIXING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM WITH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN THEREAFTER AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW. HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TREND UP THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPACT
THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, ENHANCING CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY ABOVE 8,500-9,000FT ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MUCH COOLER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING/WARMING ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 29 62 24 68 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 64 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 66 27 70 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 64 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 30 69 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 33 69 36 71 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 39 74 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 34 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 32 75 36 73 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 36 79 40 77 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 26 56 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 27 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 58 22 61 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 29 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 33 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 38 72 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 37 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 79 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 40 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 79 39 80 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 79 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 77 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 83 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 70 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 72 31 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 37 67 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 39 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 71 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 70 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 67 30 61 / 0 0 0 20
RATON........................... 33 70 30 66 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 35 72 33 70 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 69 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 76 37 67 / 5 0 0 10
ROY............................. 38 73 36 65 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 43 80 40 75 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 76 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 83 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 84 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 47 85 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 46 82 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 90 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 48 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 46 81 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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