543
FXUS65 KABQ 271900
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT.
- SOME SLICK AND ICY ROADS FROM SNOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
A DIRTY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST INTO NM, BRINGING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. THE RIDGE WILL
BREAK-DOWN TONIGHT AND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WESTERLIES AND A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW TOWARD THE ROCKIES. THIS
SCENARIO WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST
PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, BRINGING
GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE RESULT WILL BE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG NEAR THE TX BORDER.
FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE IN PART TO THE
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY, BRINGING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND NOTABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE WEST THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN A GUSTY
EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA
VALLEYS. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD (35MPH) AT THIS TIME, BUT COULD TREND UP. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO RACE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN NM ON SUNDAY,
THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TIMING OF
THE TROUGH AND ALL FORECAST AN OPEN WAVE VS A CLOSED LOW. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK-HITTER, BRINGING A ROUND OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING HIGH TERRAIN THANKS TO BOTH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FORCING. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD JUSTIFY AN ADVISORY
FOR THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (40-60%) OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COLD CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME ON TUESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST AND
PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND UP. THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IS MESSY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST ARE IN THE CARDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES,
BUT IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STATUS/FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT NEAR THE TX BORDER. IMPACTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KTCC AND KROW, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE
LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND COLDER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING STRONGER WINDS, COLDER CONDITIONS, INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE CO BORDER. VENT RATES WILL
TAKE A DIP AND BE MOSTLY POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COLDER
AIRMASS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 30 56 28 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 55 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 27 55 25 50 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 25 56 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 25 60 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 58 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 35 61 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 31 58 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 65 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 49 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 53 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 31 53 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 51 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 25 43 21 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 49 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 53 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 29 56 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 27 58 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 34 53 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 55 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 58 37 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 63 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 27 63 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 33 61 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 62 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 33 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 29 62 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 36 56 35 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 34 66 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 53 32 51 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 33 55 33 52 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 56 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 59 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 55 30 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 58 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 58 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 37 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 56 24 39 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 25 59 25 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 24 61 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 59 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 61 34 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 28 61 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 67 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 31 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 64 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 36 61 40 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 64 40 60 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 33 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 34 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 33 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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