301
FXUS65 KABQ 181200 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, WET MICROBURSTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN TODAY, COVERING WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
THE MAIN MOTIVATING FACTOR BEHIND THIS WATCH ISSUANCE WAS THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. 72 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE COMMONPLACE AROUND THE REGION AND NASA SPORT PRODUCTS THAT USE
SATELLITE TO DETECT SOIL MOISTURE SHOW THAT THE TOP 10 CM OF SOIL
IS AT OR ABOVE THE 98TH PERCENTILE OF WETNESS ACROSS NEARLY ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. RUNOFF CAN OCCUR MUCH FASTER WHEN SOILS
ARE THIS MOIST, REQUIRING LESS RAINFALL THAN NORMAL TO PRODUCE
FLOODING. IF THIS EVENT WAS OCCURRING A WEEK OR TWO AGO WHEN
SOILS WERE MUCH DRIER, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THESE AREAS.
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5" PER HOUR COULD OCCUR WITH STORMS
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST. STORM
MOTIONS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 25 MPH SO IT WILL REQUIRE THE
TRAINING OF STORMS TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL, BUT COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER WET NIGHT AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. A JET STREAK OVER NORTHWEST NM HAS FAVORED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM, WITH DEVELOPMENT
INCHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE RGV WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE MOST UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE OTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL ANOTHER BROAD REGION OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE. BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ON ITS LEADING EDGE WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WITH A STEADY RAIN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THIS BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE MORNING HOURS, REACHING THE CO BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON STORMS, INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER VORT LOBE COMING UP FROM SE ARIZONA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL NM. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE (LIS OF -2 TO -4C), BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST WITH PWATS STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
RAINFALL RATES WON'T BE QUITE AS EFFICIENT HAS THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IT WILL STILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH SOIL MOISTURE SO HIGH. ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY UPON THE EXPIRATION OF
TONIGHT'S AT 3 AM. FRIDAY NIGHT'S SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE LESS
ROBUST THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS IS LIKELY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP GETS ORIENTED MORE ZONALLY.
A MORE STARK DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH THAT WAS
OVER CALIFORNIA A COUPLE DAYS AGO CROSSES OVER THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST,
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE A FEW FAST-MOVING GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER. THE MAIN AREA WE'RE WATCHING FOR
SATURDAY IS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE AND A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SPARK A FEW STORMS. THE LIMITING FAVOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE SHEAR, BUT IT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
DRY WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTER DAYS OF SOAKING RAINFALL.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH
A LIGHT WEST BREEZE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EAST, WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL FOCUS A MOISTURE PLUME OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE VERY WET AND THERE COULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVING
OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK
AS DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (AS SHOWN BY
THE DETERMINISTIC EURO), BUT LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS ARE STILL
SHOWING PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OVER ALL OF NEW MEXICO SO
THE ODDS ARE IN FAVOR OF WET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT TREKS NORTHWARD. MVFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR MID TO LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN WEST-CENTRAL NM
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS NUMEROUS THAN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOST TERMINALS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED TODAY. ANOTHER
BATCH OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL IMPACT KROW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH
POTENTIALLY PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY
CLEAR AFTER 06Z, EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS
OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY'S
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ONCE AGAIN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
0.1-0.5" RANGE, EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES TREND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WET PATTERN IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 54 78 50 / 60 30 10 0
DULCE........................... 74 40 76 38 / 70 50 30 0
CUBA............................ 71 48 73 46 / 80 40 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 75 46 75 44 / 50 20 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 46 74 45 / 70 30 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 75 48 77 46 / 70 30 50 5
QUEMADO......................... 76 50 76 48 / 60 20 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 74 54 76 54 / 80 40 60 10
DATIL........................... 72 50 74 49 / 70 20 40 5
RESERVE......................... 80 51 82 49 / 40 10 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 88 57 89 56 / 30 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 68 44 68 41 / 80 50 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 53 73 52 / 80 40 40 10
PECOS........................... 74 50 77 49 / 70 50 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 49 73 47 / 60 40 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 63 42 65 39 / 60 50 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 40 70 40 / 60 40 20 10
TAOS............................ 74 45 76 43 / 50 50 20 10
MORA............................ 75 48 78 46 / 50 50 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 78 53 80 51 / 70 40 40 10
SANTA FE........................ 73 54 75 53 / 80 50 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 52 77 50 / 70 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 59 82 58 / 70 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 56 80 56 / 70 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 82 55 / 70 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 59 80 57 / 70 30 40 30
BELEN........................... 81 54 82 53 / 80 40 50 30
BERNALILLO...................... 80 57 82 55 / 70 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 53 81 52 / 80 40 50 30
CORRALES........................ 80 57 82 56 / 70 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 55 82 54 / 80 40 40 30
PLACITAS........................ 77 57 79 56 / 70 40 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 57 81 56 / 70 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 84 59 85 59 / 80 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 52 77 52 / 70 40 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 75 54 77 54 / 70 40 40 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 50 80 49 / 70 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 47 82 46 / 70 40 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 51 78 50 / 70 50 40 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 51 79 51 / 60 50 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 53 79 52 / 60 50 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 59 83 58 / 50 50 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 77 54 80 54 / 60 60 40 30
CAPULIN......................... 81 52 81 50 / 30 20 10 5
RATON........................... 83 49 84 47 / 30 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 85 49 86 48 / 30 40 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 77 50 81 48 / 50 50 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 89 62 90 59 / 10 20 10 5
ROY............................. 83 55 85 53 / 40 40 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 92 60 / 40 40 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 60 87 59 / 60 50 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 63 91 61 / 20 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 93 64 92 62 / 10 40 20 20
PORTALES........................ 93 65 92 63 / 10 40 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 62 91 60 / 40 50 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 94 65 93 63 / 20 50 40 40
PICACHO......................... 87 59 88 58 / 80 60 60 30
ELK............................. 86 57 87 55 / 60 50 60 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-
203-204-206-207-226-239-241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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