719  
FXUS65 KABQ 041726 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1026 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
ANOTHER DREARY AND RAW DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AS MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES  
FUNNELING OVER THE STATE. WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES  
COMPARED TO TODAY RETURN OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. CONDITIONS CLEAR  
UP FOR MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY, AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE  
NORTH. SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR  
EARLY DECEMBER. VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN FOR WESTERN  
AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AS THE STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE  
FINALLY MAKES EASTERN PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE  
STATE WEDNESDAY, WITH VALLEY SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES  
ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN PLAINS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE IN THE  
TUSAS. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
ACROSS THE WEST AND AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST  
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST  
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY. THE  
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT THIS MOMENT  
WITH CHANGES ANTICIPATED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
BROAD AREA OF RAIN STRETCHED FROM WEST CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
RGV TOWARD SANTA ROSA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THE  
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SLIDING  
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL  
START TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND MORESO MONDAY WITH  
SHOWERS ON MONDAY FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST NM  
AND SOUTHWEST CATRON COUNTY. MONDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG  
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE  
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING FOG WAS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. GIVEN THE  
TRANSIENT NATURE AND THE VARIABLE VISIBILITIES WITH IMPROVEMENT DUE  
TO RAINFALL, DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER, MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT TO SUDDEN ENCOUNTERS WITH REDUCED  
VISIBILITIES IN FOG THIS MORNING AND SLOW DOWN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
WARM CONDITIONS RELATIVE TO EARLY DECEMBER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE  
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE AND DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TUESDAY  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, AS  
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CALIFORNIA FINALLY MAKES  
NOTICEABLE EASTWARD PROGRESS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST  
ACROSS THESE ZONES, DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT  
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND  
7000-7500 FT DUE TO DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY SE NEW  
MEXICO WILL REMAIN WARM (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE) DUE TO  
DOWNSLOPING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM A SURFACE LEE TROUGH. THE  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY, ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING STATE, WITH VALLEY SHOWERS AND  
MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. SNOW LEVELS  
WILL DROP EVEN FURTHER TO 6000-7000 FT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE TUSAS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC  
LIFT. CURRENT STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS ZONE LOOK TO BE  
AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE  
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT, WITH  
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND NEAR  
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. THE TYPICAL BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE  
THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THANKS TO RIDGING  
ALOFT ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE USUAL  
VALLEY INVERSIONS. LOWS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE, BUT COLDER  
COMPARED TO THE PRIOR DAYS.  
 
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE EAST AND ESPECIALLY THE  
NORTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE  
TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY AT THIS POINT  
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, DRY, AND  
SHALLOW AND HAS THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE AREA COME SATURDAY.  
MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE FEATURE DEEPENING  
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE  
STATE WITH SOME PRECIP SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SOMEWHERE IN  
BETWEEN THE GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO  
DEPICTING THESE THREE POSSIBILITIES. IN THE END, FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS RATHER LOW AND FURTHER CHANGES AND  
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED!  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL NM, MOSTLY FROM FG AND BR. A BAND OF -SHRA REMAINS ACROSS  
WEST-CENTRAL NM STRETCHING EASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY  
OVER KONM. SLOW AND ERRATIC IMPROVEMENTS OF CIGS AND VIS ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. AMDS WILL BE NEEDED TO  
ADDRESS NEAR TERM CHANGES IN CATEGORIES AS A RESULT. A RETURN OF  
MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR FROM FG IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT  
AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW CLEAR MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
SKIES CONDITIONS BECOME HOWEVER. MORE FAVORABLE AVN CONDITIONS  
WITH VFR IS FAVORED THROUGH EASTERN NM THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
WETTING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TODAY, FOCUSING ON WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL NM. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVELS. DRIER  
AIR TO BEGIN DISPLACING THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND  
MORESO MONDAY WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION  
SNOW. ON MONDAY WEST WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY TO AROUND 40-50 MPH  
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE I-40 CORRIDOR OVER  
EAST CENTRAL NM BUT DECREASE MONDAY EVENING. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
OFFERS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. SNOW  
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TUSAS AND  
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. OVER EASTERN NM ON  
WEDNESDAY, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. DRIER WEST TO  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS DEPICTED FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  
DESPITE THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF WIND THROUGH NEXT WEEK, FORECAST  
HUMIDITIES AT THIS TIME ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS WEEK,  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF EXCURSIONS OF SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL OVER WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NM, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND  
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY IMPROVE TO GOOD OR  
BETTER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NM.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 53 35 54 33 / 30 20 10 10  
DULCE........................... 49 32 49 26 / 50 40 40 30  
CUBA............................ 49 36 50 31 / 60 40 5 5  
GALLUP.......................... 52 36 52 31 / 50 20 0 0  
EL MORRO........................ 51 37 51 31 / 70 30 0 0  
GRANTS.......................... 50 34 55 27 / 60 20 0 0  
QUEMADO......................... 52 36 55 31 / 90 20 5 0  
MAGDALENA....................... 53 41 57 35 / 70 20 0 0  
DATIL........................... 51 37 53 32 / 80 20 5 0  
RESERVE......................... 56 39 59 31 / 90 30 20 0  
GLENWOOD........................ 57 45 61 40 / 90 40 20 0  
CHAMA........................... 45 30 43 25 / 50 40 40 30  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 38 51 32 / 40 20 5 5  
PECOS........................... 51 37 53 33 / 30 20 0 0  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 35 48 29 / 20 20 5 10  
RED RIVER....................... 47 35 45 24 / 20 20 5 5  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 34 45 23 / 20 20 5 5  
TAOS............................ 49 34 50 28 / 20 20 5 10  
MORA............................ 53 37 53 30 / 20 10 0 0  
ESPANOLA........................ 52 35 57 32 / 30 20 0 5  
SANTA FE........................ 51 38 53 34 / 40 20 0 0  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 37 56 31 / 30 20 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 42 56 38 / 50 30 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 42 59 35 / 50 30 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 38 60 34 / 50 30 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 41 59 36 / 50 20 0 0  
BELEN........................... 55 42 63 32 / 60 20 0 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 53 41 60 35 / 40 20 0 0  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 40 61 31 / 60 20 0 0  
CORRALES........................ 53 41 60 35 / 50 20 0 0  
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 41 62 32 / 60 20 0 0  
PLACITAS........................ 52 41 56 37 / 50 30 0 0  
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 41 59 36 / 50 20 0 0  
SOCORRO......................... 56 43 65 36 / 60 20 0 0  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 39 51 35 / 50 30 0 0  
TIJERAS......................... 50 40 54 34 / 50 30 0 0  
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 38 54 31 / 40 20 0 0  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 36 56 28 / 40 20 0 0  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 38 54 31 / 40 20 0 0  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 41 55 33 / 60 20 0 0  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 42 57 34 / 60 20 0 0  
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 47 61 41 / 50 30 5 0  
RUIDOSO......................... 57 44 56 39 / 40 40 5 0  
CAPULIN......................... 54 33 58 28 / 5 0 0 0  
RATON........................... 56 34 61 26 / 5 0 0 0  
SPRINGER........................ 56 35 59 26 / 5 0 0 0  
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 38 58 34 / 20 5 0 0  
CLAYTON......................... 56 39 64 29 / 5 0 0 0  
ROY............................. 56 37 62 31 / 10 0 0 0  
CONCHAS......................... 60 43 62 38 / 10 5 0 0  
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 44 64 39 / 20 5 0 0  
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 46 70 39 / 10 5 0 0  
CLOVIS.......................... 61 44 68 41 / 10 5 0 0  
PORTALES........................ 62 45 70 41 / 10 5 0 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 46 68 39 / 20 5 0 0  
ROSWELL......................... 60 46 72 43 / 10 10 0 0  
PICACHO......................... 64 48 67 42 / 20 20 5 0  
ELK............................. 65 48 65 42 / 20 20 5 0  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...99  
LONG TERM....71  
AVIATION...24  
 
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