385
FXUS65 KABQ 251822 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1122 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 55 MPH WILL RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TODAY, CREATING DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CHAVES COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
- RECORD WARMTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
A SFC LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE HAS KEPT BREEZES GOING TONIGHT
THROUGHOUT EASTERN NM. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON'T TOTALLY DECOUPLE SO
THESE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC HEATING INCREASES MIXING
HEIGHTS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
GUADALUPE/DE BACA COUNTIES, AND THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OF SIMILAR
MAGNITUDE TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES AT THE SFC WHICH WILL HELP
TO KEEP FIRE DANGER AT BAY OUTSIDE OF CHAVES COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT/DE BACA COUNTIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS WELL, EXCEPT COULD
BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER IN SOUTHEASTERN NM WHERE TEMPS COULD RISE
ALL THE WAY INTO THE UPPER 80S. ROSWELL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
REACH 88F, WHICH WOULD SHATTER THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 85, WHILE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS TUCUMCARI AND CLAYTON ARE ON TRACK TO TIE OR BREAK
RECORDS AS WELL. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, DROPPING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AND WASHING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO KEEP
GUSTY WINDS AT BAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE DROPS IN WESTERN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
QUIET WEATHER WITH RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE STORY FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO.
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT THEY WON'T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
FIRE DANGER OR CREATE BLOWING DUST. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL
BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
STILL FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WHEN THE 80S WILL CREEP NORTH UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN ABQ METRO AREA. NUMEROUS RECORDS ARE
ON TRACK TO BE SHATTERED ALL AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM ON
SUNDAY.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS GETTING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS SHOW LITTLE DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARD TO THE DEPTH/SPEED OF THIS TROUGH, BUT CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE TROUGH COULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND PROGRESSIVE OR SLOWER
AS IT CUTS OFF AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EARLY TO
MID-NEXT WEEK WHEREAS THE FASTER SOLUTION WOULD BRING LESS RAIN/SNOW
AND A PACIFIC FRONT THAT WOULD LIKELY DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO NEAR
AVERAGE. EITHER WAY, AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
WITH THE STRONGEST SPEEDS REACHING 45 KT FROM CLINES CORNERS TO
FORT SUMNER. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1221 AM MST WED FEB 25 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AGAIN IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. THE STRONGER
WINDS IN EASTERN NM WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
KEEP RH ABOVE 15% IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOVE 20% IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THAT BEING SAID, IF ANY FIRES ARE STARTED IN
THESE AREAS THEY WILL LIKELY TRAVEL QUITE QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED TO LOCALIZED NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. RH WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY, WITH
MINIMUM VALUES 25% OR LESS EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THIS ALONG WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT THE ALREADY POOR SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DRY FUELS. FAIR
TO GOOD VENTILATION IS FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH GREATER IMPROVEMENTS ON SUNDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AND BRING RAIN/SNOW TO
THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES, BUT EASTERN NM WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST
BENEFICIARIES OF THE MOISTURE, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 35 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 62 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 64 34 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 69 31 68 27 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 36 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 70 32 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 43 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 65 39 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 77 36 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 80 39 81 39 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 57 27 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 39 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 66 39 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 34 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 52 30 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 25 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 65 31 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 65 36 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 36 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 67 41 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 38 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 47 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 41 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 78 38 76 36 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 74 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 37 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 42 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 39 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 70 44 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 41 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 46 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 41 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 67 42 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 41 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 38 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 37 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 41 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 45 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 47 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 70 31 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 73 30 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 31 70 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 36 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 37 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 75 36 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 39 77 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 76 41 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 83 40 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 83 44 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 43 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 41 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 49 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 79 47 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 78 47 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-223-233-237.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
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