733
FXUS65 KABQ 151945
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 142 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- DRY STORMS IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY MAY IGNITE NEW FIRES.
LOCALIZED AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR THESE STORMS MAY RAPIDLY
SPREAD NEW FIRE STARTS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO NEAR-RECORD
HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING NM TODAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER UPSTREAM TROUGH HOLDING OVER THE UPPER GULF OF CA AND INTO
AZ. AT THE SURFACE, A CYCLONE IS DEEPENING OVER THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES, AND DIURNAL HEATING IS LEADING TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING THAT IS DRAGGING DOWN STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT (15 TO 30 KT
AT 700 MB) AND RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE
SURFACE. WEAK SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE BEEN ALREADY
PERIODICALLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF NM WHERE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INABILITY IS HIGHEST, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO, DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW
WHERE SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AS
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ALL FIZZLE
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL, BUT A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND ERRATIC OUTFLOWS FROM EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION
SHAFTS.
ON SATURDAY, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED WITH SUBTLE
MOVEMENT AND SHARPENING WITH THE UPSTREAM GULF OF CA TROUGH, AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS
OVER NM. A NEW SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS, INTRODUCING A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT ACROSS NM, AND
THIS WILL SET UP A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS OBSERVING
AT LEAST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GET SHOVED OUT OF THE STATE WITH MEAGER MID LEVEL (~500
MB) MOISTURE STRUGGLING TO HOLD ON OVER NORTHERN ZONES WHERE HIGH-
BASED CUMULUS AND PERHAPS SOME RAGGED VIRGA WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THE GULF OF CA TROUGH WILL EXIT INTO CO SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WHILE A STRONGER LOW DIVES AND DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THE STRONGEST JET SEGMENT WILL REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW OVER NV, BUT SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER NM SUNDAY. A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER SOUTHEAST CO,
AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NM,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HIGHER TERRAIN ZONES
ALONG OR NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
CANDIDATES FOR A WIND ADVISORY. LOW MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THE
WARM SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VERY DRY WHILE FIRE DANGER
ESCALATES, AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE GREAT BASIN LOW MOVES INTO UT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO CO
MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND COOLER AIR INTO NM WHILE THE WINDS REMAIN
STRONG (700 MB WINDS PEAKING MONDAY MORNING AT 40 TO 50 KT,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN). A FEW MORE WIND
ADVISORIES SEEM WITHIN EASY REACH FOR MONDAY, PARTICULARLY IN
NORTHEASTERN ZONES, AND A SMATTERING OF FAST-MOVING LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SKIM ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
STATE.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LOOKS TO HANG BACK NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY, KEEPING THE GRADIENT ALOFT TIGHT
WHILE THE BACKDOOR FRONT KEEPS COOLER AIR FEEDING INTO EASTERN NM
ZONES. SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHICS WILL YIELD
PRECIPITATION WITH MOST MODELED TO STAY IN CO NORTH OF THE RATON
PASS. THIS COULD CHANGE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A REINFORCING
BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES AND MERGES WITH RETURN FLOW. THIS WOULD THEN
POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A DRYLINE SETUP THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY
WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BOUNDARY BEING A MECHANISM TO SPAWN
CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THIS WOULD
BE COUPLED WITH LIGHT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AS A WEAK TROUGH
STAYS OFFSHORE OF CA. VARIANCES AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
CLUSTERS ARE NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT DURING THE DAY 5 TO 7 TIME
FRAME WITH ALL CLUSTERS AND MEMBERS POINTING TOWARD SOME SEMBLANCE
OF THIS DRYLINE REGIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BUILDING
WITH A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE DUE TO EVAPORATION BELOW THE CLOUDS.
HOWEVER, ABRUPT AND SHORT-LIVED GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES. AFTERNOON
BREEZES WILL TEND TO GUST TO 20 TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, ONLY TO REDEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS WILL AGAIN REACH 20 TO 30 KT ON A
MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A FIRE WEATHER GROWING PATTERN IS BUILDING WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY
REACHING WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME STATUS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN
PROGRESS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE FOCUSED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE A FEW GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 35 TO 40 MPH, AND THE RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. WINDS WILL ALSO GET GUSTY
BENEATH AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR DRY STORMS IN ROOSEVELT OR
UNION/HARDING/NORTHERN QUAY COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THEN, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE, RELAXING THE CRITICAL THREAT TONIGHT, BUT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL NOT BE VERY GOOD TONIGHT, ONLY RECOVERING
TO 40 TO 50%.
WINDS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND SEASONABLY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT. CRITICAL CONDITIONS LOOK MOST LIKELY IN NORTHEASTERN
ZONES, SO THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING THERE
FOR SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR REMAINING
AREAS OF CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITY WILL EASILY DROP BELOW
10% IN MOST CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY, SO THE WIND SPEEDS ARE THE MORE
MARGINAL OR LIMITING FACTOR. WILL LET THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS
REASSESS AND MAKE THE FINAL CALL.
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE ALIGNING FOR A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREME EVENT AS APPROACHING DISTURBANCES
ALOFT DRAG STRONGER WINDS ALOFT INTO NM. MANY LOCALES ARE MODELED TO
REACH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM.
THE NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOK TO HAVE
SOME PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY SCANT, FLEETING
PRECIPITATION MONDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER VERY SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE, ALL ZONES LOOK TO NEED A WATCH
WHICH WILL LIKELY BE FORTHCOMING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
THE PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO A COOLER ONE IN EASTERN ZONES ON
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRYLINE TO TRIGGER STORMS
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS
FROM WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS TO LOCALIZED THREATS FROM STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 86 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 82 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 46 82 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 42 80 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 44 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 82 43 77 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 80 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 51 83 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 46 80 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 40 82 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 86 43 82 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 75 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 79 54 75 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 84 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 78 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 71 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 34 75 34 69 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 43 81 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 46 81 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 87 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 86 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 88 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 50 90 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 89 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 90 51 87 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 88 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 89 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 54 89 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 89 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 88 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 82 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 53 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 84 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 86 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 82 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 84 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 85 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 80 51 75 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 82 45 77 / 10 10 10 0
RATON........................... 44 86 45 81 / 10 10 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 45 88 47 83 / 5 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 84 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 91 55 87 / 10 10 10 0
ROY............................. 49 87 51 82 / 0 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 54 95 58 90 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 92 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 97 61 93 / 10 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 56 94 56 91 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 57 96 57 93 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 94 55 91 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 57 97 57 94 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 91 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 55 86 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ104-123.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ106-124>126.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ126.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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