181  
FXUS65 KABQ 212343 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
443 PM MST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCEPT ODDLY  
AT KSAF WHERE WINDS HAVE YET TO MIX DOWN. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO THERE  
FOR THE EVENT THAT IT STILL DOES BEFORE SUNSET. WIND GUSTS OF  
25-35KTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 35-40KTS WILL CONTINUE TO THE  
01Z-02Z TIMEFRAME AT WHICH TIME WINDS START TO TURN MORE NWLY WITH  
GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. SFC MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL OCCUR  
OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANY THE FROPA MAINLY THROUGH NW NEW MEXICO,  
ACCOMPANIED BY -SN AND MTN OBSCURATIONS. THE BACKDOOR COLD SEGMENT OF  
THIS SYSTEM ENTERS INTO FAR NE NEW MEXICO AND KCAO BY THE 09Z-11Z  
TIMEFRAME, REACHING KTCC BY ~13Z AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST NM AND  
KROW NEAR MIDDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD  
ACROSS EASTERN NM.  
 
24/RJH  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST MON JAN 21 2019
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO  
TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL  
NEW MEXICO, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A  
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RACE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW  
MEXICO TONIGHT, WHILE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS  
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO  
AROUND 55 MILE PER HOUR. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONTS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND WIND CHILL VALUES  
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS.  
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON  
WEDNESDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL REINFORCE COLD  
TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION  
WILL WARM UP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER BACKDOOR  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS EAST  
OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY RECOVERING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK  
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD, AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW  
FORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDES EASTWARD  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY TUESDAY MORNING. THOUGH UPPER LEVEL  
DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL PRODUCE LIGHT  
TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2  
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TUSAS AND  
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. STRONG WEST WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING  
SNOW. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE  
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE  
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 55 MPH LATE TONIGHT  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THESE  
FRONTS WILL RESULT IN A COLD DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10  
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF  
THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY  
FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS LOOKS ON TRACK TO EXPIRE BY 18Z TUESDAY,  
AS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE SUNNY  
SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY  
WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FAR  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS  
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH ANOTHER  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES  
ON THURSDAY WILL DROP 3 TO 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEAST PLAINS, WHILE SLIGHT WARMING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REST OF  
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW  
NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL  
PUSH ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A  
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS EAST  
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY WITH A BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY REBOUNDING TO SLIGHT ABOVE NORMAL ON  
SUNDAY.  
 
28  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
...MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS  
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO  
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE COMBINED FOR SOME SPOTTY  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,  
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, AND EASTERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH WINDS  
WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TUESDAY, CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE  
NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE  
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS  
OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY. THE BACK DOOR SEGMENT  
OF THE COLD FRONT SURGES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY, WITH  
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER, HIGHS TUESDAY WILL RANGE  
FROM ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS WILL SLACK OFF TUESDAY  
NIGHT ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES  
COLDER THAN USUAL.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL  
BRING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO THE STATE ALONG WITH BOUTS OF GUSTY  
WINDS. WHILE THE TIMING IS SUSPECT, THE NEXT FRONT MAY COME ON  
THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND YET ANOTHER NEXT MONDAY,  
WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE BUNCH. THERE WON'T BE A LOT  
OF MOISTURE WITH THESE FRONTS, SO DON'T EXPECT MORE THAN MEAGER  
SNOWFALL. THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTS WILL RESULT IN  
AREAS OF GOOD VENT RATES MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH, WITH FAIR TO POOR  
RATES OTHERWISE.  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...  
NMZ501-502-509-512-520>525-527>534-538.  
 
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES... NMZ505-506-508-513>515-526-539-540.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES... NMZ510.  
 

 
 

 
 
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