772
FXUS65 KABQ 041103 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
403 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 400 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER FRIDAY
WITH BROADER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NM
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND IT.
SPRINKLES WERE NOTED ON RADAR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST NM THROUGH
THE EVENING, BUT THESE ECHOES ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY. THERE ARE
LOW CHANCES OF A LIGHT EAST CANYON WIND IN THE ABQ METRO AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNRISE.
TODAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WITH
LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF SUN AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL
POISED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND WEAKLY CLOSE
OFF IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN UT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER NM, THOUGH THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ARRIVE LATER, NOW CROSSING NM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A 994 MB SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
SE CO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEP MIXING (NEAR 550MB) WILL STILL
YIELD A WINDY DAY AREAWIDE, THOUGH SPEEDS HAVE COME DOWN A FEW MPH
OVERALL COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM TODAY'S READINGS ACROSS
EASTERN NM THANKS TO THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS. HIGHS
WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THIS AREA. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY NEAR RECORDS FOR THE DATE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
THE WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS CO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OF GREATER
CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE STRONGEST MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL CROSS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THUS,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE THURSDAY EVENING, AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE FELT AT MOUNTAIN PEAKS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, H7 WINDS WILL NEAR 50-60KT ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN (MAINLY FROM THE SANDIA MTNS
SOUTHWARD). THIS WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES AND
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT PASSES. WIND
ADVISORIES OR HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. THE MID LEVEL JET WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH BREEZY TO WINDY WEST WINDS WILL STILL PLAGUE
EASTERN NM. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE NAM BRINGS THE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NM BY
18Z FRIDAY, NEARING THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY 21Z. THOUGH THIS IS THE
LONE MODEL DOING SO, IT BEARS WATCHING AS THE NAM TENDS TO DO A
LITTLE BETTER WITH TIMING OF BACKDOOR FRONTS. IF THIS OCCURS,
THERE WILL STILL BE BREEZES, BUT COOLER AND OUT OF THE NORTH,
RATHER THAN THE WEST.
MEANWHILE, THE SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM, AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF
AND RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR FRONTS.
WHILE THE LOW MEANDERS NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA, RELATIVELY QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NM ON SUNDAY, THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW UP GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO NM. ON
MONDAY, THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BUT THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW THE LOW WILL EJECT,
NAMELY HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL BE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
APPEAR TO BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE EXCEPT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM WHERE IFR TO MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CO BORDER.
THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 15Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM BUT
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
NM ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY FRIDAY AS WELL. ON THURSDAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH
AREAWIDE AS HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT NEARLY AREAWIDE.
IN FACT, 3 TO 7 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN NM. WITH CONSIDERABLE FINE FUEL LOADING, HIGH FIRE
DANGER EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN NM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NM, THOUGH ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, BREEZY TO WINDY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM WITH DAYTIME MIXING. RH
VALUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AS WELL. HOWEVER, THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. IF THE FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER, THE THREAT FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD DECREASE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AREAWIDE. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE,
WITH STRONG GAP WINDS EXPECTED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE. MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SUNDAY SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN QUIET WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 33 64 31 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 61 25 62 26 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 61 31 63 27 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 66 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 64 29 63 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 25 67 26 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 29 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 38 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 65 31 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 66 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 70 33 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 26 55 23 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 37 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 31 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 32 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 28 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 22 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 62 27 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 63 31 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 68 31 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 35 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 32 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 43 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 40 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 37 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 38 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 71 33 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 37 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 33 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 37 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 34 74 34 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 39 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 38 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 40 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 38 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 65 38 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 66 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 68 28 69 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 34 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 66 36 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 36 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 43 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 62 42 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 31 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 65 27 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 70 27 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 32 68 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 65 39 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 65 35 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 73 38 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 39 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 42 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 45 79 43 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 71 45 81 43 / 0 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 40 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 71 40 73 43 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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