782
FXUS65 KABQ 221137 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD WILL PLAGUE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY AND
THURSDAY, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS TODAY,
THURSDAY, SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A 30 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
IN COORDINATION WITH WFO EL PASO, ADDED THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
(AKA. WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE) TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE BORDERLINE, BUT STUDIES INDICATE THAT THIS
COMBINATION OF RED FLAG THREAT INDEX AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT
(EXCESSIVE FUEL DRYNESS) HISTORICALLY ENABLES RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD NUMEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON MONDAY, SO THERE COULD BE SOME SMOLDERING EMBERS THAT
COULD BE FANNED INTO A WILDFIRE BY WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY, THEN STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
STRENGTHENS THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SHARP
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BOTH DAYS.
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY,
EXCEPT FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH FROM LAS VEGAS TO ROY, IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. ON
THURSDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WHILE PEAK GUSTS
REACH UP TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO PLUMMET MOSTLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH DAYS, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 4 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON, READINGS WILL COOL 3 TO 11
DEGREES ON THURSDAY WHILE REMAINING AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ABOVE
30-YEAR AVERAGES OVER EASTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
WINDS WILL WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING GUSTY ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND UNDER FAIRLY BRISK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME
VERY STRONG SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES STEERS BOTH THE POLAR
JETSTREAM AND SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM OVER NM. A POWERFUL SHARED
ENERGY AREA BETWEEN THESE TWO JETSTREAMS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH OVER AND JUST EAST OF NM'S SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY IN
MORE LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. HUMIDITIES WILL AGAIN PLUMMET MOSTLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND POTENTIALLY ALSO IN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY VARYING FROM
NEAR AVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS TO AS MUCH AS 9 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST, READINGS SHOULD FALL A FEW TO AROUND 6
DEGREES CENTRAL AND WEST WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE A 20-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS, GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXCEPT FOR SOME COOLING BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT SAGS
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER EARLY IN THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A MODEST RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. WINDS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY GUSTY ON
MONDAY, THEN THEY LOOK TO BECOME STRONG AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
SPEEDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AGAIN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND A
SHARP LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS. BY TUESDAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR TO AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPROCK UNTIL MID MORNING, IMPACTING CLOVIS,
PORTALES, AND MELROSE. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND AS FAR WEST AS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
INCLUDING KROW EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT SINCE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 20 TO
30 KT WILL THEN BECOME COMMON THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST
GUSTS NORTH OF I-40 (AND ALSO IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS). THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM
LAS VEGAS TO CONCHAS AND ROY, WILL PROBABLY HAVE MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING, THEN REMAIN GUSTY OVER AND ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH AT
LEAST LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
AND MULTIPLE STRONG WIND EVENTS.
MODELS NOW BRING THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, SO WE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FOR
TODAY. THAT SAID, SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FORECAST LOCALLY TODAY FROM AROUND GALLUP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS, AND ALSO IN OTHER AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. FURTHER EAST, A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY. FOR THURSDAY, WE EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WESTWARD
TO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY,
WEST CENTRAL BASIN AND RANGE, SANDIA MOUNTAINS, AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS. EVEN WITH WEAKER WINDS FORECAST FRIDAY, LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO THE LAS
VEGAS AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE THE AREA
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL DURING
A STRONG WIND EVENT ON SUNDAY. AFTER LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS ON MONDAY, STRONG WINDS
AND CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN ON
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 41 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 71 32 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 72 37 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 71 33 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 68 37 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 74 36 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 37 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 76 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 71 39 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 35 72 33 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 79 39 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 30 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 44 63 39 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 73 40 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 37 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 62 32 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 28 56 18 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 73 35 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 72 38 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 80 41 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 74 42 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 41 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 50 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 49 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 84 43 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 82 48 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 85 45 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 82 47 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 84 42 76 38 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 83 47 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 84 44 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 78 49 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 48 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 86 48 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 45 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 76 45 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 42 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 39 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 40 66 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 44 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 44 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 51 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 48 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 75 38 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 78 38 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 80 41 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 42 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 84 49 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 80 44 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 87 50 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 83 48 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 89 51 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 88 51 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 88 52 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 88 50 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 52 88 50 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 84 51 80 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 80 49 76 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-121>123-125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-109-121>126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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