312
FXUS65 KABQ 131121 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS, IS FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY,
CREATING STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A 553MB 500MB LOW, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NV PER THE LATEST WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING TO NEAR 563DAM.
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR IS BEING STEERED OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING LOW WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS CLOSER TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FILLING AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CO ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE PUSHING THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL FORCE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE CO BORDER AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE LATEST TRENDS FAVOR LESS PRECIPITATION AS
DRIER AIR WRAPS UNDER THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE TX BORDER WHERE
GULF MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FUEL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, INCLUDING TAOS, FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR THE 1ST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON IN THAT AREA. THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING
UPPER LOW WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CLOSE OFF INTO A 2ND UPPER LOW AND RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ACROSS AZ
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL RACE WEST ACROSS NM, RESULTING IN A STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WHILE THE 00Z
MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN FROM SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS, THERE
IS A STILL A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST ADVISORY-TYPE SPEEDS
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE
WEEKEND FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT THE RETROGRADING UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAY PICK UP
AND STEER TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN AT KGUP
AND KFMN THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL DELIVER GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WED/THU BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTS. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK, BUT TAKE A DIP AND BE POOR OVER THE WEEKEND AS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL WETTING PRECIPITATION KEEP
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INVERTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 46 55 36 / 50 60 50 0
DULCE........................... 57 36 53 27 / 80 60 80 10
CUBA............................ 62 42 55 32 / 20 20 50 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 38 54 27 / 60 50 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 38 54 28 / 20 30 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 65 42 58 30 / 5 20 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 63 41 58 31 / 0 10 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 69 47 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 64 41 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 43 66 33 / 10 10 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 46 70 38 / 20 10 10 0
CHAMA........................... 53 38 48 27 / 80 40 80 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 46 59 37 / 0 0 10 5
PECOS........................... 66 43 60 36 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 61 42 56 33 / 20 0 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 53 33 48 26 / 10 0 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 60 24 55 19 / 0 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 64 39 59 30 / 5 0 20 10
MORA............................ 67 36 60 33 / 0 0 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 70 45 65 36 / 0 0 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 66 47 61 39 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 45 63 37 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 54 69 44 / 0 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 51 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 50 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 52 68 43 / 5 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 77 49 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 50 70 39 / 5 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 48 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 75 51 70 42 / 5 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 49 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 72 52 67 42 / 0 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 51 69 42 / 5 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 51 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 46 63 36 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 69 48 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 45 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 42 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 46 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 46 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 53 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 47 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 71 41 59 38 / 0 0 20 50
RATON........................... 74 40 64 38 / 0 0 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 76 39 68 38 / 0 0 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 42 63 37 / 0 0 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 80 51 65 48 / 0 5 20 70
ROY............................. 74 47 67 44 / 0 0 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 83 55 75 50 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 52 76 48 / 0 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 57 76 53 / 0 0 40 20
CLOVIS.......................... 87 59 78 55 / 5 10 50 10
PORTALES........................ 88 60 80 55 / 0 10 50 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 56 79 52 / 0 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 90 59 86 55 / 0 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 83 53 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 80 51 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NMZ216.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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