377
FXUS65 KABQ 150728
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 125 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
- A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A VIGOROUS EARLY SPRING TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE AND TARGETING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A 175 KT JET
STREAK ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FEATURE AT 300 MB IS LEADING THE
CHARGE AND HELPING THE PERTURBATION TO RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD.
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY SPIKE UP THROUGH THE MORNING,
ESPECIALLY AT RIDGETOP LEVEL, AS 700 MB SPEEDS ARE STILL MODELED TO
REACH 50 TO 70 KT OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHLAND AREAS OF NM BEFORE DAWN.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WAS REVISED TO AN
ADVISORY LAST EVENING, AND GUSTS OF 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, THE THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT WILL HAVE OVERTAKEN
CO AND WILL BE SPILLING INTO NORTHERN NM ZONES THROUGH THE MID
MORNING VIA TWO FRONTAL SEGMENTS, A PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR. THE CORE
OF THE COLDER AIR WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH, BUT SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STILL BEFALL OVER NM, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ZONES
WITH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OBSERVING THE STARKEST DROPS IN
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG BAROCLINICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS
LEADING TO SOME VERY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. THESE WILL START SPILLING IN OVER NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVERGING AND EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD. THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD INTO MUCH OF THE PLAINS LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MANY ZONES
SLATED TO REACH GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND CLOSER TO 70 MPH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THERE COULD BE A TRANSIENT SUCKER HOLE
WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS WHERE THE TWO FRONTAL SEGMENTS (PACIFIC AND
BACKDOOR) MEET SOMEWHERE OVER THE INTERFACE OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND HIGH PLAINS. MOST OF THESE ZONES SHOULD STILL MEET
HIGH WIND CRITERIA AT SOME POINT THOUGH. BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE
A CONCERN, GIVEN THE RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR
DUST PRONE AREAS, AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CREATE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW HUMIDITY THAT WILL CREATE HIGH FIRE
DANGER AMIDST THE VERY GUSTY WINDS. WINDS LOOK TO LIKELY PEAK
AROUND NOON IN MANY ZONES WITH A SLOW AND GRADUAL DECREASE IN
SPEED TOWARD DUSK, FOLLOWED BY A MORE NOTABLE DECELERATION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS
OF WEST TX AND EASTERN NM TONIGHT. THE STIFF SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MODEST COLD AIR
DAMMING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS SLOWLY
REDUCING OVERNIGHT WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20'S. A
BRIEF EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT MAY SNEAK THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS
WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT ANY ASSOCIATED GUSTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND TEMPORARY.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE COLD TOO WITH A HARD FREEZE FOR
MANY TONIGHT, BUT READINGS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 20'S TO LOW
30'S VERSUS THE TEENS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUTS MORE DISTANCE BETWEEN IT AND EASTERN NM. THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL HAVE REDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY BY MONDAY, BUT SPEEDS OF 15 TO
35 KT ARE STILL PROGGED AT 700 MB. THIS COULD KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR THE USUAL SUSPECTS THAT ARE PRONE TO GUSTS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS INCLUDES A CORRIDOR FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WOULD STAY
BELOW NORMAL BY 8 TO 15 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY, BUT
OTHER REMAINING ZONES WOULD RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY MORE INTO TUESDAY, BUT
THE SAME CORRIDOR AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR MONDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY.
IN THE EAST, A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE VEERING AND DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT LEADING TO
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND A SIGNIFICANT JUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES
THERE. HEIGHTS WOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE STATEWIDE AS AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN CA.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED CLIMATOLOGY BY 8 TO 18
DEGREES, A TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
HIGH IS MODELED TO REACH ABOUT 591 DECAMETERS ON TUESDAY (ABOUT 3
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY), RISING CLOSER TO 593-
596 DECAMETERS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (ABOUT 3.8 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER CO RIVER
BASIN. THIS FORTIFIED UPPER HIGH WILL CAUSE WINDS ALOFT TO REDUCE
MORE, BUT TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES WILL POTENTIALLY
PRODUCE SOME UNCHARACTERISTIC HEAT IMPACTS AHEAD OF THE SPRING
EQUINOX. NAILING DOWN DAYTIME HIGHS EACH DAY WILL PROVE CHALLENGING,
GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS EVENT AND THE INHERENT STRUGGLES THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE FACES DURING SEASONAL TRANSITIONS.
THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS VERY LITTLE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MOVING
CLOSER TO THE AZ-NM BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WARM TO HOT AND VERY
DRY STRETCH (DAILY ROUNDS OF ~5% HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS) GOING
WITH STRONG WINDS STAYING ABSENT. THIS LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY CHANGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLIES RETURN, SUPPRESS THE HIGH FARTHER
SOUTH, AND ERODE IT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHILE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TONIGHT
AS WINDS ALOFT SURGE UP IN SPEED. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 50 TO
70 KT WILL BE COMMON AT 10,000 FT MSL, BUFFETING MOUNTAIN PEAKS
AND RIDGETOPS AND CREATING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO THE LEE
(EAST) EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS IN VALLEYS AND OTHER
SHELTERED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL STAY MUCH LIGHTER THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WITH JUST OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS, BUT
THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY
TURN STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS IN WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 KT AROUND MID DAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL BE A WILD CARD, AND SOME DUST PRONE LOCATIONS COULD OBSERVE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY (3 TO 5 MILES). WINDS
WILL SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH SPEEDS CONTINUING TO DECREASE
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS TAKING SHAPE OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WHILE
COLD FRONTS TYPICALLY DO NOT FIT THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER, THE INCOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
EXCEPTIONAL DRY AIR ADVECTION, CREATING A UNIQUE AND CONCERNING
EVENT. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE STILL SLATED FOR MOST
ZONES WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO
PLUMMET BELOW ZERO (DEG F) WHICH WILL BOTTOM-OUT HUMIDITY VALUES (5
TO 10% IN THE MAJORITY OF ZONES). BOTH THE PACIFIC AND BACKDOOR
SEGMENTS OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING TO NM
TODAY WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING BACK TO, OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
AFTER YESTERDAY'S RECORD WARMTH. STILL, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-
40 WILL LARGELY REACH 60 DEGREES OR MORE FOR HIGHS WHICH WOULD SEEM
TO BE CAPABLE OF CARRYING ANY ONGOING FIRES.
A COLDER NIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE WILL BE ON TAP FOR MANY TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE NOTABLY WEAKER ON MONDAY, BUT
A CORRIDOR OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL STRETCH FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS DOWN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
MARGINAL OR LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU (FARMINGTON AREA) WHERE A COUPLE TO A FEW HOURS OF
GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. NO WATCHES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS AREA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL SPATIAL AREA THAT
WILL BE IMPACTED.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REDUCE MORE INTO TUESDAY, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND OVER NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL AREAS WITH WIND
SPEEDS FORECAST TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
SOAR ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND AGAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A VERY STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT MANY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WITH EXTREMELY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 28 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 20 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 51 23 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 58 22 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 59 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 60 25 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 63 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 33 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 63 31 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 30 73 32 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 33 77 36 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 48 19 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 29 58 37 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 19 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 18 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 15 46 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 7 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 51 13 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 52 19 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 24 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 24 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 22 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 32 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 70 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 63 30 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 63 30 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 68 29 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 32 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 31 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 25 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 60 15 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 16 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 24 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 21 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 26 56 37 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 8 48 25 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 10 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 11 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 15 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 42 13 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 13 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 17 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 20 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 15 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 20 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 18 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 17 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 26 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 72 25 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 19 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ201-204-212-218-219-238-240.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ221-222-224-230>232-234>237.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ206>208-211.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ213>215-
223-226>229-233-239.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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