804
FXUS65 KABQ 201205 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 451 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS WILL PLAGUE MUCH
OF THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD AGAIN ON
TODAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED
ROADS.
- SNOW WILL PRODUCE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH A MODERATELY STRONG
SNOW SQUALL EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING AS A BLUSTERY
COLD FRONT CROSSES WEST CENTRAL, NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TODAY, THEN
POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
MOST PLACES STARTING MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
THE THIRD AND FINAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF THE WEEK WILL PASS
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A QUICK BURST
OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THERE WILL BE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS, SO THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
MORE SNOW THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS, AND FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS WILL BE FAVORED FOR A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW, EXCEPT 5-10 INCHES ON HIGHER RIDGELINES NEAR THE
CO BORDER. FURTHER, A BLUSTERY PACIFIC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND WIND TO PRODUCE A MODERATE SNOW SQUALL
AS IT CROSSES WEST CENTRAL, NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS
MORNING. THE NAM12 SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VARIES FROM 7-10 (ON A
SCALE OF 12) OVER THIS AREA, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED
FROM THE TUSAS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS WESTWARD, WHERE CAPE AROUND
200 J/KG AND LIS AROUND 0 TO -3 C COULD RESULT IN A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND THUNDERSNOW. MOTORISTS ON I-40 FROM GRANTS WESTWARD,
ON HIGHWAY 550 FROM CUBA NORTHWESTWARD, AND ON HIGHWAY 64 FROM
TAOS WESTWARD WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A ROUGHLY 1 HOUR PERIOD OF
HEAVY SNOW DROPPING VISIBILITIES AROUND 1/4-1/2 MILE, WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH, AND A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES FROM EAST TO WEST FROM 7 AM TO NOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S THIS MORNING WILL ENABLE THE SNOW TO
STICK CAUSING QUICK DETERIORATION OF ROAD CONDITIONS AND MAKING
DRIVING HAZARDOUS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON, LINGERING LONGEST NEAR THE CO BORDER.
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO STEER THE JETSTREAM OVER NM, WHILE A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM DEEPENS NEAR 998 MB,
PRODUCING ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT TODAY. WIND SPEEDS AT 700 MB
LOOK TO VARY AROUND 40-55 KT, WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND
GUSTS REACHING 45-55 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CLINES CORNERS, VAUGHN, SANTA ROSA, LAS VEGAS,
AND CONCHAS LAKE. LIGHTER GUSTS FROM 35-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT, AND SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ON THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS. HUMIDITIES
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TODAY FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO AROUND 18 DEGREES BELOW
1991-2020 AVERAGES THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FROM NEAR TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW THE AVERAGES ON SATURDAY AS THE WEATHER DRIES OUT AND SKIES
CLEAR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER, REACHING
NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES STARTING MONDAY,
THEN PEAKING AROUND 6-19 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ON TUESDAY AN
WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND STRENGTHEN THE FLOW
ALOFT PRODUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO STEER A STRONG JETSTREAM OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE,
AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN OUR TYPICALLY WINDY LOCATIONS LIKE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND CLINES CORNERS. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
LIKELY ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, WHICH DOESN'T
LOOK TO PRODUCE MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 451 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
SNOW AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM WITH MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS. THE SNOW AND FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM TAOS AND QUESTA TO CHAMA AND
DULCE. A BLUSTERY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER WEST CENTRAL, NORTHWEST, AND NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING
WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SNOW SQUALL PRODUCING AN HOUR OR SO OF
IFR CONDITIONS, A WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT, AND WIND GUSTS
FROM 30-45KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL BE FELT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHERE GUSTS WILL COMMONLY PEAK
AROUND 45-60 KT. BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY IN DUST-PRONE PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
WITH ERC'S VARYING FROM THE 50TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE, HUMIDITIES
FROM 13-20 PERCENT, AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH TODAY, A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM UNTIL 6 PM FOR THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WILL BE GUADALUPE COUNTY, WHERE ERCS ARE ABOVE THE 50TH
PERCENTILE. FARTHER WEST IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, ERC'S ARE BELOW
THE 50TH PERCENTILE, BUT WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST THERE
REACHING AROUND 60 MPH. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY,
THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
THE STRONG WIND EVENT ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MIDWEEK, BECAUSE IT COULD PUSH
A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY LIMITING
THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT. OTHERWISE,
BROAD AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL PROBABLY SPREAD TO NORTHEAST AREAS
AS WELL ON MONDAY, WITH POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 16 41 20 / 80 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 34 2 41 4 / 100 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 37 14 42 17 / 80 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 6 44 10 / 80 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 34 14 45 21 / 80 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 9 47 14 / 70 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 40 15 50 22 / 30 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 23 48 28 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 41 19 47 24 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 45 14 57 21 / 50 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 18 61 24 / 50 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 27 1 36 9 / 100 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 18 41 23 / 60 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 37 16 45 18 / 60 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 10 38 16 / 90 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 5 30 11 / 90 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 3 36 3 / 80 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 35 8 43 9 / 70 5 0 0
MORA............................ 36 13 44 15 / 70 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 44 14 49 15 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 19 44 23 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 18 46 20 / 50 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 27 50 30 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 49 25 52 27 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 22 55 24 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 24 52 26 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 52 19 54 20 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 49 24 53 26 / 30 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 51 19 54 21 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 24 53 25 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 21 54 22 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 45 24 48 28 / 30 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 24 52 26 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 25 56 26 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 21 44 25 / 40 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 42 23 46 26 / 40 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 19 47 20 / 30 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 14 49 13 / 30 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 17 44 21 / 30 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 19 49 21 / 20 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 19 50 22 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 25 55 27 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 24 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 41 12 42 17 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 42 11 45 13 / 40 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 45 13 48 13 / 30 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 14 45 17 / 30 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 19 48 23 / 20 0 0 0
ROY............................. 47 16 47 19 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 19 54 21 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 22 50 21 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 21 53 21 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 26 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 24 55 21 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 23 54 20 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 29 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 26 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 22 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ104-125-126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ214-215-223-229-232-233.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ212-213-221-222-226-228-231-234>237-239-240.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ210.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ203.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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