695
FXUS65 KABQ 311155 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL IMPACT WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES
MAINLY IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE, AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF ROSWELL.
- WET ROADS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
MOUNTAIN PASSES NORTH OF I-40 CLIMBING OVER 9,000 FEET WILL
PROBABLY BECOME SLIPPERY IN LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH NEW YEAR'S DAY, AND
UP TO 55 MPH FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
TO-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGHWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM THURSDAY TRIGGERING SCATTERED-TO-
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND MAINLY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, THEN SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PWAT IS FORECAST TO PEAK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AROUND 200% OF NORMAL OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, AND ONLY
75-100% OF NORMAL FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SO, THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ACCUMULATE THE MOST PRECIPITATION; GENERALLY
0.10-0.40" LIQUID AND/OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT, WITH SPOTTIER AND
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL NOT
CROSS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, AFTER THE RICHEST MOISTURE EXITS NM TO
THE EAST, SO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE
9000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD ACCUMULATE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A HALF FOOT ON WEST FACING SLOPES AND
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 19 DEGREES
ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES TODAY AND THURSDAY, READINGS WILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES ON FRIDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE WIND. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH THE PRECEEDING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. A ~1001 MB SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER FAR
NORTHEAST NM ON THURSDAY, INDUCING THE STRONGEST WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PARTS OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR FROM CLINES CORNERS EASTWARD WILL PROBABLY GUST UP
TO 45 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NM WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY, WHEN 700 MB SPEEDS SHOULD REACH
45-50 KT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES. THIS COULD EASILY RESULT IN
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LINGERING SURFACE
LOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKER WINDS THERE
FRIDAY, AND ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN EASTERN TORRANCE AND
WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST WED DEC 31
2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NM FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER, LIGHTER
WINDS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 11-22
DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES FRIDAY, WHEN A FEW RECORD AND
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CENTRAL AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND GRADUALLY COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A 15-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG SOME IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY
SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE THIS MORNING. THUS, FOG BANKS SHOULD MOSTLY
PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS STILL A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY IN CHAVES COUNTY SOUTH OF
ROSWELL. OTHERWISE, BROKEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE STREAMING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TODAY. TONIGHT, THE CEILING WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW MOVE OVER WESTERN NM FROM AZ.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MST WED DEC 31 2025
AFTER AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM TODAY, HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 15 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITIES DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S
WIND EVENTS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20-50 PERCENT, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AREAS OF
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY LOOK TO RETURN MAINLY TO NORTHEAST NM
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK AROUND 15-25 MPH THERE. AFTER WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
TODAY, VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY;
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION THAT WILL LINGER NEAR THE CO
BORDER. POOR VENTILATION WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF VENTILATION
IMPROVEMENT EAST OF THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS TO THE TX BORDER MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 32 48 36 / 0 60 80 60
DULCE........................... 54 25 45 31 / 0 30 70 70
CUBA............................ 53 30 49 33 / 0 50 70 50
GALLUP.......................... 55 31 52 34 / 0 70 60 50
EL MORRO........................ 57 34 50 36 / 0 70 70 40
GRANTS.......................... 58 32 55 33 / 0 60 50 30
QUEMADO......................... 60 36 55 34 / 5 50 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 58 41 58 38 / 0 30 20 10
DATIL........................... 59 38 54 36 / 0 40 30 10
RESERVE......................... 63 34 58 31 / 10 70 70 40
GLENWOOD........................ 66 37 61 35 / 10 70 70 50
CHAMA........................... 50 25 42 30 / 0 20 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 36 48 38 / 0 20 40 30
PECOS........................... 58 34 52 35 / 0 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 30 47 34 / 0 5 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 49 21 43 27 / 0 5 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 17 46 28 / 0 5 30 20
TAOS............................ 54 25 50 31 / 0 5 20 20
MORA............................ 61 32 54 35 / 0 5 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 58 30 55 34 / 0 10 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 54 35 52 38 / 0 10 50 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 32 56 35 / 0 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 40 57 43 / 0 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 39 59 42 / 0 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 34 61 37 / 0 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 37 59 39 / 0 30 30 20
BELEN........................... 55 34 62 38 / 0 30 30 10
BERNALILLO...................... 57 37 59 40 / 0 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 32 60 35 / 0 30 30 10
CORRALES........................ 57 36 59 38 / 0 30 30 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 33 61 36 / 0 30 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 54 39 56 43 / 0 30 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 38 58 40 / 0 30 30 20
SOCORRO......................... 57 40 65 39 / 0 30 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 37 51 40 / 0 20 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 52 37 52 40 / 0 20 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 36 54 40 / 0 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 29 57 35 / 0 10 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 34 52 36 / 0 10 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 37 56 39 / 0 20 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 35 57 38 / 0 20 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 39 60 38 / 0 20 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 59 40 55 39 / 0 20 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 61 27 60 30 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 61 25 61 29 / 0 0 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 60 24 62 31 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 33 59 35 / 0 0 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 64 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 30 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 29 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 38 64 43 / 0 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 30 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 35 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 34 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 34 68 43 / 0 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 36 72 41 / 0 5 5 0
PICACHO......................... 67 43 67 41 / 0 10 5 0
ELK............................. 68 42 65 38 / 0 10 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page