215
FXUS65 KABQ 030717
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1217 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
- OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH MODEST TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NM.
- A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A REX BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM.
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TWO BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES, WITH
THE FIRST AND WEAKER PASSAGE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE SECOND AND STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH
NOTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN HIGHS THAT WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
UPSLOPE FORCING FROM WINDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, BUT
LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT DOOR SEGMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE LIMITED COOLING TO AREAS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER HIGH PORTION OF THE BLOCK WEAKENING AS IT
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NM BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LOW PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK IS FORECAST TO HANG BACK OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTHERN NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY TAPPING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND RESULTING IN
PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER,
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL SPREAD AMONG THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS. THE POLAR JETSTREAM LOOKS TO BE A
PLAYER BEYOND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE
THAT MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING TO THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT ENTERED NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND IS NOW PUSHING
INTO EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL OCCUR
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KT) BEING COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE PECOS VALLEY TUESDAY
MORNING, SO VISIBILITY IS MODELED TO STAY AT 6 MILES OR MORE
AROUND KROW AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THEREFORE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST TUE FEB 3 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GOOD MIXING AND MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES
ARE FORECAST TODAY, BUT VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND BECOME MOSTLY POOR BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND NM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A
WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE. A PACIFIC LOW MAY BRING INCREASED
HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 25 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 53 16 54 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 22 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 58 18 56 16 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 21 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 58 19 54 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 23 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 29 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 25 51 22 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 64 25 62 21 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 29 66 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 16 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 27 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 21 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 20 45 19 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 15 40 16 / 5 10 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 7 42 2 / 0 5 5 0
TAOS............................ 51 18 48 15 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 19 46 21 / 0 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 58 23 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 26 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 31 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 32 55 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 25 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 30 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 61 27 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 26 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 61 28 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 27 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 29 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 29 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 31 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 26 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 28 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 25 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 21 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 24 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 25 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 27 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 31 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 25 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 19 42 18 / 5 10 0 0
RATON........................... 56 19 47 18 / 5 10 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 59 20 49 17 / 0 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 21 46 21 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 27 49 27 / 0 10 0 0
ROY............................. 56 24 49 23 / 0 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 28 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 28 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 27 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 30 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 61 28 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 29 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 31 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 60 32 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 29 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page