943
FXUS65 KABQ 131117 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 454 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN EACH
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
NEW MEXICO REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN US
AND A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS IN
PLACE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. PWATS RANGE FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE 85TH PERCENTILE IN FAR WESTERN NM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL RESTRICT
DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY MOVING OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. RECENT HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SCATTERED MAY EVEN BE A STRETCH, WITH THE HRRR AND REFS SHOWING
ISOLATED COVERAGE. THE LACK OF COVERAGE COMBINED WITH THE FASTER
STORM MOTIONS WILL LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK AS EVIDENCED BY 90TH
PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 1" AREAWIDE. THAT BEING SAID, THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES SO AN INSTANCE
OR TWO OF FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
MORNING CLEARING WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE POCKETS OF
DESTABILIZATION AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. AS A RESULT, THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL BE A TAD HIGHER FOR FRIDAY, WITH WESTERN NM THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY TODAY AND
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE HIGHS COULD BE AS MUCH
AS 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE.
IT WILL BE WARMER ACROSS THE EAST BOTH DAYS CLOSER TO THE H5 RIDGE
AND WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS DENSE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST
AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME NOTABLY THINNER, WITH STORM COVERAGE
FOCUSING ALONG THE PLUME. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD
BE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHICH WOULD BE ADVANTAGEOUS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THAT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO REGENERATE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS, ALTHOUGH OTHER LOCATIONS ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE AT RISK AS WELL. THE CENTER OF THE H5 WILL
ATTEMPT TO RE-DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM SUNDAY, SLOWING DOWN STORM
MOTIONS AND INCREASING TEMPS. ON SUNDAY, LREF 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
AROUND 595 DAM OVER CENTRAL NM, BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
IT AS STRONG AS 598 DAM. STORM COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
HEIGHTS RISE, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS SIGNIFYING MORE MID-LEVEL WARMING
AND THEREFORE LESS AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION. MOISTURE WILL DROP
DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN MOST AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
EXCEPT ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE NORTH OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE SAME AREAS GETTING RAIN EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW LATE NEXT WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE H5 RIDGE COULD BE LOCATED ANYWHERE FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO TEXAS AND ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS ANYWHERE FROM ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS STORMS AND
TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 454 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN, BUT MOST AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF A STORM NEARBY. BROKEN VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY, WITH VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z, BUT RECENT HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP IN
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT AFTER AROUND 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2026
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY,
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. DESPITE THE AMPLE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE, STORM COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PREVAIL
IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT STRONGER WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
STORM COVERAGE TICKS UP SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WHEN WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER. STORMS FOCUS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SATURDAY THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE RE-DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL CONSISTENTLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BECOMING FAIR TO GOOD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL
FORECAST SCENARIOS RANGING FROM HOTTER AND DRIER TO WETTER AND
COOLER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 85 62 87 61 / 10 30 20 10
DULCE........................... 82 48 85 48 / 40 30 40 30
CUBA............................ 81 56 83 55 / 20 50 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 79 53 81 52 / 30 20 40 10
EL MORRO........................ 75 52 78 52 / 40 30 70 20
GRANTS.......................... 80 55 82 54 / 40 30 70 20
QUEMADO......................... 75 55 78 55 / 50 40 70 10
MAGDALENA....................... 79 61 82 61 / 70 30 60 30
DATIL........................... 74 55 78 55 / 60 30 60 20
RESERVE......................... 81 53 85 54 / 60 40 60 10
GLENWOOD........................ 85 57 91 58 / 50 20 40 10
CHAMA........................... 75 48 78 48 / 50 20 60 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 60 83 60 / 50 30 50 40
PECOS........................... 82 57 85 56 / 20 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 55 82 55 / 50 30 50 20
RED RIVER....................... 70 46 73 45 / 50 20 70 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 38 78 37 / 50 10 70 30
TAOS............................ 82 53 85 52 / 40 20 40 20
MORA............................ 80 53 82 52 / 50 10 70 20
ESPANOLA........................ 87 59 90 59 / 50 30 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 82 61 85 61 / 30 20 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 58 88 58 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 89 66 92 67 / 5 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 65 91 65 / 10 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 63 93 64 / 10 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 67 91 66 / 10 30 10 20
BELEN........................... 89 63 93 63 / 10 30 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 90 65 93 65 / 10 30 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 61 92 61 / 10 30 10 20
CORRALES........................ 91 66 93 66 / 10 30 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 64 92 63 / 10 30 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 87 64 89 64 / 5 30 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 89 66 92 66 / 10 30 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 90 66 94 66 / 50 30 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 83 58 86 58 / 5 20 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 83 60 86 61 / 5 20 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 56 88 55 / 10 20 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 55 90 54 / 10 10 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 58 86 58 / 10 10 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 57 87 56 / 5 10 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 57 86 58 / 5 10 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 64 90 64 / 5 10 40 20
RUIDOSO......................... 82 58 83 58 / 5 5 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 83 55 85 55 / 40 20 60 30
RATON........................... 87 55 88 55 / 50 20 70 30
SPRINGER........................ 89 57 91 56 / 40 20 50 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 87 56 / 20 5 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 93 64 94 63 / 5 20 20 20
ROY............................. 88 61 90 60 / 10 20 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 98 68 99 66 / 0 10 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 65 94 64 / 5 10 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 69 100 68 / 0 10 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 99 70 99 68 / 0 5 20 20
PORTALES........................ 99 71 99 69 / 0 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 68 98 68 / 0 10 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 99 71 100 70 / 0 10 20 20
PICACHO......................... 93 65 93 64 / 10 5 70 30
ELK............................. 91 61 91 60 / 5 5 60 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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