062
FXUS65 KABQ 211935
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1235 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOST
PLACES STARTING MONDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
A CHILLY AND CLEAR SATURDAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORM
WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SO THIS SHOULD HELP PREVENT
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY AS WAS THE
CASE THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIN OUT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
FOR MANY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
THE WARMUP CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, EXPECT NEAR TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SOME BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
CAPROCK DUE TO ANOTHER SURFACE LEE TROUGH. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FLATTENS ON TUESDAY DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WEST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH. THE DOWNSLOPE WEST WINDS WILL INTENSIFY THE WARMUP
AREAWIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WEST WINDS ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING
RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AREAWIDE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NW TUESDAY SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES. POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS OF TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER DAY OF A RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, HOWEVER HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
MORNING BACKDOOR FRONT. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK TO
READINGS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO RETURNING DOWNSLOPE
WEST WINDS. BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BOTH
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM REMAIN STEADY
AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BREEZY NORTH WINDS AT KSAF AND KROW WILL
TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BREEZY NORTH
DRAINAGE WIND AT KSAF. SOUTH BREEZES DEVELOP AT KROW AT THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MST SAT FEB 21 2026
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
COMBINE THIS WITH WEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND WINDS STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, SURFACE MOISTURE INCREASES A
LITTLE AS WELL RESULTING IN HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY IS LOWER. COOLER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT BEFORE WARMING BACK UP ON FRIDAY.
BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLAY THURSDAY BEFORE SPREADING TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 52 23 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 5 51 13 56 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 51 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 11 56 14 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 23 55 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 9 56 14 64 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 60 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 54 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 54 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 20 62 24 69 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 24 65 27 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 9 44 17 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 23 49 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 52 24 61 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 48 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 40 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -6 46 4 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 7 50 15 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 16 55 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 15 56 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 23 51 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 53 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 56 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 57 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 59 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 59 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 59 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 20 59 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 25 59 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 22 59 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 28 55 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 61 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 26 53 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 19 56 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 9 57 18 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 51 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 20 55 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 22 55 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 28 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 26 52 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 15 51 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 13 54 19 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 11 57 17 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 17 54 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 19 54 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 52 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 19 60 24 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 21 56 23 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 19 60 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 23 58 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 58 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 21 56 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 57 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 25 55 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 23 55 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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