848
FXUS65 KABQ 101745 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TX BORDER.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS MAY
NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RAINFALL FROM TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGHING PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM, WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
40-45KTS WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PULLS-UP STATIONARY AND
PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR INITIATION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP LATE TODAY
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE MOISTURE-CHALLENGED AND
WILL FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10")
RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL MODELED TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE IS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE RUIDOSO AREA OVERNIGHT,
BUT CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO STORM MOTION OF 25-30MPH (LOW
RESIDENCE TIME) THAT WILL BE CROSS-BASIN (VS DANGEROUS DOWN-
BASIN). ALL OF THE EASTERN PLAINS IS INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY, WITH POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF A SAN
JON TO MELROSE TO ELKINS LINE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE
LATEST NAM IS ADVERTISING MUCAPE APPROACHING 2,500J/KG WITH LIS UP
TO -7C AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40KTS, WHICH IS PLENTY SUPPORTIVE
OF A SEVERE THREAT. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY AS WELL, BUT WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY AND MOISTURE-
CHALLENGED WITH A FAIRLY SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINT. STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE PWATS WILL TREND DOWN RAPIDLY AS DRY AIR
ALOFT MOVES OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LOW MOVING
INLAND OVER NORTHERN CA. THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BRING A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WHILE STEERING STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA, CREATING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DESERT SW ON MONDAY AS THE JET STREAM PIVOTS
OVER NM AND AN EVEN DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE RESULT
WILL BE WINDIER CONDITIONS THAT MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY ON
MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY, BRINGING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THAT WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7KFT LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY COME BACK TO THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS GULF
MOISTURE RETURNS IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH THRU 9PM. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL STRENGTHEN AS MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE AREA, BUT
STRONG AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACT AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE EASTERN NM WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FAVOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG STORMS. PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR THRU SATURDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN NM. WESTERN NM IS
LIKELY TO SEE PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI APR 10 2026
HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM AS A WEST COAST TROUGHING PATTERN AMPLIFIES. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SEE A MIX
OF DRY AND WET STORMS, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS. A DRY SLOT WILL PIVOT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN, WITH WIND SPEEDS AND HUMIDITY EXCEEDING
CRITICAL THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SUNDAY IS LOW DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
POSSIBLE SOAKING RAINS FRI/SAT. AN EVEN DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGH
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, WITH CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE ADVECTION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND COULD LIMIT DAYTIME MIXING AND RESULTING FIRE
BEHAVIOR. THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY WHERE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING/DRYING ARE FORECAST WED/THU FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 48 72 40 / 20 20 40 10
DULCE........................... 71 36 67 29 / 20 50 70 20
CUBA............................ 70 43 67 35 / 40 60 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 71 35 69 32 / 20 10 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 68 38 66 34 / 30 20 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 72 38 71 33 / 40 30 40 10
QUEMADO......................... 70 40 68 35 / 20 5 30 5
MAGDALENA....................... 72 47 70 41 / 40 30 30 20
DATIL........................... 67 42 67 36 / 30 20 30 10
RESERVE......................... 74 40 73 34 / 10 5 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 45 77 38 / 10 5 10 0
CHAMA........................... 65 36 59 29 / 30 60 80 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 70 46 66 41 / 40 60 80 50
PECOS........................... 71 43 65 37 / 50 70 70 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 39 62 35 / 30 60 70 40
RED RIVER....................... 57 33 56 29 / 40 70 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 33 59 28 / 50 70 70 50
TAOS............................ 71 40 67 31 / 30 70 70 50
MORA............................ 67 39 63 35 / 50 80 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 77 47 73 39 / 40 70 70 50
SANTA FE........................ 71 46 67 41 / 50 80 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 74 47 70 40 / 50 80 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 52 73 45 / 40 70 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 51 75 46 / 40 60 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 52 78 45 / 40 60 50 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 52 76 46 / 40 60 50 40
BELEN........................... 80 50 78 43 / 40 50 40 30
BERNALILLO...................... 79 51 76 46 / 40 60 50 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 50 78 42 / 40 60 50 40
CORRALES........................ 80 52 77 46 / 40 60 50 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 51 78 43 / 40 50 40 40
PLACITAS........................ 75 50 71 45 / 40 70 60 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 51 76 46 / 40 60 50 40
SOCORRO......................... 81 53 79 46 / 40 40 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 46 67 41 / 50 70 60 50
TIJERAS......................... 73 48 70 43 / 50 70 60 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 74 45 71 40 / 50 70 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 44 72 38 / 50 80 60 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 44 67 40 / 50 70 70 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 46 70 40 / 50 60 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 47 69 42 / 50 60 50 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 51 71 49 / 40 60 60 30
RUIDOSO......................... 69 46 64 45 / 50 70 60 30
CAPULIN......................... 64 44 63 38 / 70 70 60 30
RATON........................... 70 43 68 35 / 60 60 50 30
SPRINGER........................ 72 45 69 38 / 60 70 60 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 71 43 65 39 / 50 80 70 40
CLAYTON......................... 65 47 69 48 / 70 90 70 40
ROY............................. 71 47 65 43 / 70 80 80 50
CONCHAS......................... 80 52 73 49 / 70 90 80 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 51 71 47 / 60 80 80 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 53 74 51 / 80 80 80 60
CLOVIS.......................... 83 54 73 52 / 50 70 80 60
PORTALES........................ 84 55 73 51 / 40 70 80 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 52 73 49 / 60 80 80 50
ROSWELL......................... 83 57 75 54 / 40 80 70 30
PICACHO......................... 78 51 72 49 / 60 70 70 30
ELK............................. 78 48 70 46 / 50 70 70 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page