320
FXUS65 KABQ 070746
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1246 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
- THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL RETURN TO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
RETURN.
- A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD BACK ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOCUSING
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING AND
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ/CA BORDER, WHICH WILL BE
PLAYER IN OUR FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM WILL BE THE STORY THIS
WEEKEND. TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WARMING IS
FORECAST SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM WHERE A DEEPENING
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND PROVIDE SOME
DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. WARMING WILL CONTINUE MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM DUE
MOSTLY TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP
MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE ON
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY OPENING UP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
EJECTS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A QUICK-
HITTER, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ASSOCIATED QPF, AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO ABOVE 8-9KFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN AT THIS TIME. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH, BRINING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST THU/FRI,
BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND A RENEWED WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
LIGHT BREEZES WILL PREVAILING IN MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOCATIONS TONIGHT, BUT THE EXCEPTION WILL COME FROM A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL KICK UP A FEW GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KT LATE
TONIGHT WHEN IT ENTERS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF NM (IMPACTING
KCAO, KTCC, AND KCVN). WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAYTIME WITH
WIND DIRECTION VEERING (TURNING CLOCKWISE) IN DIRECTION. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT
WARMING IS FORECAST SUN/MON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM ON SUNDAY, WITH A
GOOD CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM. SIMILAR SETUP FOR MONDAY, BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOCUSING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF I-40. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLING TO EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A RENEWED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST NEXT THU/FRI, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE AND STRENGTHENING WNW FLOW ALOFT BRINGING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 24 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 17 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 23 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 16 63 21 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 20 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 18 65 23 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 22 64 27 / 0 0 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 31 63 37 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 52 25 61 30 / 0 0 5 0
RESERVE......................... 60 24 68 29 / 0 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 29 73 34 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 45 18 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 30 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 51 26 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 23 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 16 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 10 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 52 18 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 51 24 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 57 23 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 25 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 33 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 26 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 31 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 61 27 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 29 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 26 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 60 29 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 27 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 31 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 31 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 34 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 31 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 27 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 19 66 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 27 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 28 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 28 64 35 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 36 68 42 / 0 0 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 28 62 36 / 0 0 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 51 19 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 18 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 18 69 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 25 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 56 31 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 26 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 61 28 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 28 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 30 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 33 74 42 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 62 30 75 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 34 72 41 / 0 0 10 0
PICACHO......................... 57 32 70 40 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 56 30 68 38 / 0 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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