598
FXUS65 KABQ 240745
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 140 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR RUIDOSO MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WEST TEXAS MCS CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN NM. THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE IT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
A BREEZY GAP WIND WOULD THEN DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT
IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS LAST NIGHTS EAST WIND IN THE
ABQ AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NM TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT FURTHER EAST TODAY, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN NM. THE DIFFERENCE FROM RECENT DAYS WILL BE THE LACK OF
SHEAR AND VERY LITTLE FORCING, THUS STORMS WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED
AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY. THERE STILL COULD BE
GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER. MEANWHILE,
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. THESE, TOO,
WILL BRING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP INVERTED-V
SOUNDING PROFILES.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAKLY CLOSED
LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOCAL AND WESTERN AZ ON MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS ACROSS NM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL EXIST
AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXPAND TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS INDICATE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD
WANE AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND BECOMES MOIST ADIABATIC.
THIS WILL ALLOW BENEFICIAL RAIN TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING. WITH
PWATS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.8 AND 0.9 INCHES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE'S A CHANCE THAT THE 00Z
TUE ABQ SOUNDING COULD SEE A RECORD PWAT. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL
SHIFT OR BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, PARTICULARLY AFTER 9PM MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH AT LEAST 6AM TUE OR SO BEFORE
WANING, ALBEIT TEMPORARILY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE
WITH TIME BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM.
THOUGH THE MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT, A
BAGGY TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER AND WEST OF NM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOST STORMS
SHOULD FAVOR EASTERN NM, STORMS MAY BE AS FAR WEST AS THE CONTDVD.
THE AMOUNT OF STORM COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUD COVER SCOURS OUT. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
RANGES FROM ABOUT 15KT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM TO AROUND 30KT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM, AND THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-40 NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS, IF SEVERE
STORMS OCCUR, THEY WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE AREA. IF ANY
AREA GETS SKUNKED, AREAS AROUND FARMINGTON OR GLENWOOD WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A TENTH TO A QUARTER
OF AN INCH, BUT THOSE UNDER THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM, COULD SEE WELL OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TUESDAY
EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY, A DRY SLOT ROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUNCH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. STRONG
MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS BY THE
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL NOT MIX OUT ACROSS EASTERN NM, THUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN FORECAST THERE. A SIMILAR
STORY LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND TO SOME EXTENT FRIDAY,
WITH DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
EAST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORM COVERAGE BEYOND
WEDNESDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES MURKIER BY SATURDAY, BUT CURRENTLY
LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE CONVECTION IN WEST TEXAS IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM, SWITCHING SURFACE
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO BRING AN
EAST WIND AT ABQ AROUND 10Z, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS LAST NIGHT. AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOSHES BACK WESTWARD, PATCHY
MVFR CIGS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, VIRGA SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM BUT WILL NOT BE
AS ROBUST AS RECENT DAYS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z
MON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AROUND
THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT RH NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVELS, THESE
SHOWERS WILL CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM. STORMS
IN THIS AREA WILL NOT BE AS ROBUST AS RECENT DAYS, BUT ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE A CONCERN. WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
REMAINS ON TAP FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM,
WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE EAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT DRIER (THOUGH LESS
BREEZY) CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM,
WHILE MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO SLOSH AROUND THE EAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 86 53 81 49 / 0 5 30 40
DULCE........................... 82 44 79 42 / 5 5 40 60
CUBA............................ 81 49 75 44 / 5 5 40 50
GALLUP.......................... 82 45 71 39 / 0 5 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 79 48 67 42 / 10 10 70 40
GRANTS.......................... 83 47 72 42 / 10 10 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 80 49 69 43 / 10 10 70 40
MAGDALENA....................... 81 56 73 48 / 5 5 70 60
DATIL........................... 79 51 69 44 / 10 10 70 60
RESERVE......................... 85 46 76 40 / 5 30 60 20
GLENWOOD........................ 89 48 82 44 / 0 40 60 20
CHAMA........................... 74 41 72 39 / 10 10 40 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 56 75 51 / 5 5 50 60
PECOS........................... 81 48 77 45 / 10 10 60 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 47 74 46 / 10 10 40 40
RED RIVER....................... 70 39 67 36 / 20 10 60 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 73 30 70 37 / 20 10 50 50
TAOS............................ 80 46 77 45 / 0 5 40 50
MORA............................ 76 47 74 45 / 20 10 50 60
ESPANOLA........................ 85 52 83 48 / 5 0 40 60
SANTA FE........................ 81 53 77 50 / 5 5 50 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 52 80 48 / 0 5 50 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 61 80 55 / 0 0 50 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 60 81 54 / 0 0 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 54 83 49 / 0 0 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 58 82 53 / 0 0 40 60
BELEN........................... 90 55 83 50 / 0 0 40 60
BERNALILLO...................... 89 57 83 53 / 0 0 50 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 89 53 82 48 / 0 0 40 60
CORRALES........................ 89 57 83 52 / 0 0 40 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 89 54 82 49 / 0 0 40 60
PLACITAS........................ 85 59 79 54 / 0 0 50 70
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 59 82 53 / 0 0 40 60
SOCORRO......................... 92 61 83 54 / 0 0 50 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 56 75 50 / 5 0 60 70
TIJERAS......................... 83 56 77 50 / 5 0 60 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 82 53 77 49 / 5 0 60 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 46 79 44 / 10 0 60 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 51 74 46 / 10 5 60 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 83 52 76 46 / 0 0 60 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 52 75 46 / 0 0 60 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 58 78 52 / 5 0 70 70
RUIDOSO......................... 79 48 73 44 / 10 0 70 70
CAPULIN......................... 76 46 76 45 / 20 20 30 30
RATON........................... 81 46 80 46 / 20 10 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 82 47 81 47 / 20 10 30 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 49 77 47 / 20 10 50 60
CLAYTON......................... 84 53 85 52 / 30 20 30 30
ROY............................. 81 51 80 49 / 20 10 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 89 56 88 53 / 10 10 40 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 54 84 51 / 10 5 40 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 58 89 54 / 10 10 50 50
CLOVIS.......................... 88 56 87 55 / 20 10 30 50
PORTALES........................ 90 56 89 55 / 20 10 30 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 89 56 88 53 / 0 5 40 60
ROSWELL......................... 92 60 91 57 / 0 0 20 60
PICACHO......................... 86 55 83 52 / 5 0 60 70
ELK............................. 84 53 80 48 / 5 5 50 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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