747
FXUS65 KABQ 031113 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 501 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECORD HEAT IS LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT
ARE QUALITY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, DOWN TO NEAR
594DAM AT 500MB ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL GET
STEERED FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION, BRINGING LARGER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES AND AN
INCREASED HEAT RISK DESPITE THE LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A NUMBER OF LOWER ELEVATION ZONES AND
HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE QUAY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES,
WHERE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 105 DEGREES TODAY. TODAY'S CROP
OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS, WITH MORE ROBUST STORMS FORECAST IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WHERE PWATS ARE HIGHER. STORMS ELSEWHERE WILL FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL. THAT
WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT REPLENISHES MOISTURE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEADS TO AN UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-35KTS
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON TUESDAY AND
THE SPC HAS INCLUDED THAT AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MEANWHILE, NORTHWEST NM
WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY, WITH MORE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR
THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL PLATEAUS. LASTLY, SMOKE FROM UT/CO
WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BE STEERED SOUTHEAST INTO NM ON
TUESDAY, CREATING AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
SIMILAR SETUP WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH LESS SHEAR AND A LOWER RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORED FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DUE TO HIGHER PWATS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTION. A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED. SMOKE
IMPACTS FROM UT/CO WILDFIRES WILL LIKELY PERSIST, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. THE MONSOON HIGH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO OVER NV/UT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS INTO NORTHWEST NM AND KEEP
CONDITIONS HOT AND DRY THERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN FARMINGTON ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 100 DEGREES OR GREATER THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY,
MAKING THIS THE LONGEST STREAK OF 100+ DEGREE DAYS IN FARMINGTON
EVER IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST (PREVIOUSLY 3 DAYS). ELSEWHERE, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR
EARLY AUGUST ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH MOVES AROUND THE REGION,
BRINGING A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND IMPROVED CHANCES
FOR WETTING STORMS TO CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY. HOTTER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST NM,
WHILE CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR NORTHWEST AND FAIR TO GOOD
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 102 66 101 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 96 55 97 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 95 63 94 60 / 0 0 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 98 63 98 60 / 5 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 94 59 91 57 / 5 5 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 97 63 95 60 / 5 5 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 93 62 92 60 / 5 20 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 95 66 92 64 / 10 10 20 40
DATIL........................... 92 62 89 60 / 10 20 40 20
RESERVE......................... 95 60 95 59 / 30 20 50 30
GLENWOOD........................ 98 63 97 63 / 50 20 70 30
CHAMA........................... 91 57 89 54 / 0 0 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 95 66 89 61 / 10 0 30 20
PECOS........................... 96 61 87 58 / 5 5 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 92 60 89 57 / 5 0 40 30
RED RIVER....................... 85 47 78 46 / 0 5 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 88 43 82 41 / 0 5 70 30
TAOS............................ 96 59 92 54 / 0 0 30 20
MORA............................ 92 58 82 54 / 5 0 60 30
ESPANOLA........................ 101 64 96 62 / 5 0 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 96 66 90 64 / 5 0 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 100 64 93 62 / 5 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 100 71 96 65 / 0 5 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 102 70 97 67 / 0 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 103 70 99 66 / 0 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 102 72 99 68 / 0 5 10 20
BELEN........................... 104 68 100 65 / 0 10 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 103 70 99 67 / 0 5 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 104 68 99 64 / 0 10 10 20
CORRALES........................ 103 71 99 68 / 0 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 103 69 99 66 / 0 10 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 101 69 95 64 / 0 5 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 102 71 97 68 / 0 5 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 103 72 101 70 / 5 5 5 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 64 88 60 / 0 5 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 99 66 92 63 / 0 10 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 99 63 91 59 / 0 10 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 100 60 93 57 / 0 10 30 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 95 64 87 60 / 10 10 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 96 63 92 60 / 0 10 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 63 91 61 / 5 10 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 70 95 66 / 10 5 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 87 64 86 60 / 20 5 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 94 58 79 55 / 30 10 40 30
RATON........................... 98 59 84 54 / 20 10 50 40
SPRINGER........................ 101 59 87 55 / 10 10 50 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 96 59 84 56 / 10 5 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 100 65 88 63 / 20 20 5 10
ROY............................. 98 64 85 61 / 20 10 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 106 71 94 67 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 104 68 93 65 / 10 10 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 72 97 68 / 0 5 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 100 69 97 67 / 0 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 102 71 98 69 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 103 71 98 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 104 73 101 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 98 68 96 66 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 93 64 93 62 / 10 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-205-207-211-212-217>221-232-234.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page