281
FXUS65 KABQ 131732 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1118 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY AND WILL
INCREASE SOME TUESDAY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE (60-70%) OF
EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WITH CONTINUED
DRYING.
- GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND A DRY STORM OR TWO WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS IN RECEPTIVE FUELS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TREND UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER NORTHERN NV/CA PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS ALREADY RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NM AS
THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES LAS VEGAS, NV. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON VS WETTING (>0.10")
RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND A FAIRLY DRY LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WHERE A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BOOST
SPEEDS. MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
NM OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS,
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A
COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND RELEGATED TO NON-
POPULATED AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL NORTHEAST OVER CO ON
TUESDAY AND DRAG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE DAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, WHERE
MODERATE CHANCES (60-70%) EXIST TO EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
TUESDAY EVENING, THEN TREND DOWN OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
MOST PLEASANT DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH MUCH LESS WIND, PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
BACKING AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH
WILL BE THE STORY ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW DROPPING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW.
AS A RESULT, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR WIND SPEEDS TO
EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE POTENT TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM ON FRIDAY, BRINGING STRONGER WINDS AND
A COLD FRONT. MODERATE CHANCES (50-60%) EXIST FOR WIND SPEEDS TO
EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MUCH
LESS ACTIVE AND COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL AREAS, LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
REACH 35KT. OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS, BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
NM TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATTER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AROUND KGUP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
NORTHEAST NM TODAY, WHERE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TUESDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT, WITH EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM FOR TUESDAY. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST NM. DRY AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE OVER
THE REGION. EXPECT A BREAK FROM THE WIND ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BUT WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BRING BACK THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 41 59 31 / 20 70 40 0
DULCE........................... 62 31 54 20 / 40 80 70 0
CUBA............................ 61 35 56 27 / 50 60 40 5
GALLUP.......................... 62 32 57 23 / 30 50 40 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 35 55 27 / 30 40 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 34 60 25 / 30 30 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 62 37 60 29 / 20 20 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 43 65 35 / 20 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 61 40 59 30 / 20 10 5 0
RESERVE......................... 67 35 65 26 / 30 40 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 73 38 69 30 / 40 50 10 0
CHAMA........................... 55 31 48 21 / 50 90 70 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 41 57 36 / 40 60 30 5
PECOS........................... 63 37 60 30 / 20 50 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 36 54 28 / 20 60 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 51 31 44 23 / 20 60 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 30 52 20 / 10 50 20 5
TAOS............................ 64 34 58 25 / 20 60 30 5
MORA............................ 63 36 59 29 / 10 30 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 69 41 65 32 / 30 50 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 41 60 35 / 20 50 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 40 63 32 / 20 50 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 48 68 40 / 20 40 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 46 69 42 / 20 40 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 45 71 37 / 20 30 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 47 69 39 / 20 40 10 0
BELEN........................... 74 44 73 34 / 20 30 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 72 46 70 39 / 20 40 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 43 72 32 / 20 30 5 0
CORRALES........................ 73 47 71 39 / 20 40 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 43 71 35 / 20 30 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 47 65 39 / 20 50 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 48 69 39 / 20 40 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 48 77 40 / 20 20 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 44 63 36 / 20 50 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 65 44 64 37 / 20 50 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 42 66 33 / 20 40 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 38 68 29 / 20 40 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 38 64 33 / 10 20 5 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 42 67 33 / 20 30 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 43 66 35 / 20 20 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 50 69 40 / 10 20 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 64 46 63 38 / 10 20 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 66 38 64 29 / 0 5 0 0
RATON........................... 69 36 66 29 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 72 37 69 30 / 5 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 40 64 31 / 10 20 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 75 48 73 40 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 70 44 69 35 / 5 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 80 48 78 38 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 46 74 39 / 10 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 51 81 42 / 0 5 5 10
CLOVIS.......................... 81 51 80 46 / 5 0 5 10
PORTALES........................ 82 51 81 45 / 5 0 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 48 78 41 / 5 5 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 83 52 83 47 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 76 49 75 41 / 5 5 0 0
ELK............................. 74 47 73 38 / 0 5 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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