298
FXUS65 KABQ 041142 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, EXCEPT NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT ARE QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ADDED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF QUAY, HARDING, UNION, AND SAN MIGUEL
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NEW MEXICO STILL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN END OF AN ELONGATED AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING 500MB HEIGHTS OF 595DM.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS EASTERN CO. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING A COLD FRONT
SURGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE AND WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35-40MPH, WITH
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THESE GUSTS BEING LOCATED BETWEEN RATON
AND CLAYTON. NOT EXPECTING WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 50MPH, BUT WILL BE
MONITORING FOR ANY NEEDED SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORIES.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATER
THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW NEEDED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAMS ARE DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON THE
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH TIMING IS RATHER
CONSISTENT (STORMS DEVELOPING BY 1PM, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
THEREAFTER). GIVEN THE FORECAST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-35KTS,
SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000-1500 J/KG, AND A RATHER CONSISTENT
OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TOMORROW. INITIAL STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATER HAIL THREAT
WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS, THEN AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH
TERRAIN, ANY SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO BE PRODUCED
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING OUT AHEAD OF
STORMS.
ACROSS CENTRAL NM (INCLUDING ABQ), STORM CHANCES ARE LOWER AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ANY COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS
IN SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
OF MOVING INTO THE AREA GIVEN THE FORECAST WELL-MIXED LAYER, AND ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A THREAT OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.
REGENERATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NM WHICH COULD LAST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, BUT THERE
IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE OF THIS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST NM,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH THE
CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL. AREAS THAT
ARE SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HRRR VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE MODELING SUGGESTS THAT SMOKE
FROM UT/NV/CO FILTERS INTO NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY AND AFFECT THOSE SENSITIVE TO
PARTICULATES.
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREAS NEAR ABQ, GALLUP, AND FARMINGTON. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO GET NEAR AND ABOVE 100F, WITH SEVERAL DAILY RECORD
TEMPERATURES LIKELY. THE ONLY AREA THAT WON'T EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTHEAST NM BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD
FRONT. WEDNESDAY SETS UP VERY SIMILARLY TO TODAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND HOT
TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND WEAKEN A DECAMETER, WHICH MAY KEEP AREAS JUST
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. STORM CHANCES ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NM.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT MOVE A WHOLE LOT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. IT MEANDERS TO CENTER ITSELF NEAR AZ/UT BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THIS WEEK WHILE STRENGTHENING A DECAMETER OR TWO. DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN STORMS AROUND THE GILA REGION. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHERLY,
THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATER THIS WEEK. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO ELONGATE ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW EASTERLY WAVES TO TRAVERSE
ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND START TO INJECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING SUGGESTS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
PATTERN OCCURRING, THOUGH EASTERLY WAVES CAN BE VERY FINICKY IN
TERMS OF DEVELOPMENT AND INFLUENCE. THE CPC HAS OUTLINED A SLIGHT TO
MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF NEXT TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, FOCUSED MORE ON WESTERN NM INTO AZ. THE OVERALL
PATTERN DOES LOOK PROMISING FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL NEED TO SEE
THE FINER DETAILS IRONED OUT MORE FOR CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE ARE STILL FELT. HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY CREEP
INTO THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY SLOWLY DECREASE
ACROSS WESTERN NM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
ISOLATED POCKETS OF LLWS REMAIN THROUGHOUT EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
NM THROUGH 14Z AS WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH
SUNRISE. A BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM,
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS CLOSER TO KABQ/KAEG/KSAF MAY
IMPACT THESE TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE LOW TO VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS TO ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AFTER 02Z IN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THIS EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUED TO LOWER SINCE THE LAST TAF
PACKAGE, AND THEREFORE PREVIOUS PROB30 GROUPS WERE REMOVED. ISOLATED
LLWS INSTANCES MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z ACROSS EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS MOVING INTO EASTERN NM THIS
MORNING, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-
40MPH. HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTHWEST NM ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER NEAR THE FARMINGTON AREA, HOWEVER. DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. ANY DEVELOPING STORM CONTINUES TO BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AS WELL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 66 101 66 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 98 54 96 54 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 96 62 94 60 / 0 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 97 62 96 59 / 0 0 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 92 58 91 57 / 5 10 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 97 60 95 59 / 10 10 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 93 61 91 60 / 10 20 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 93 66 90 65 / 30 40 40 5
DATIL........................... 90 61 87 59 / 30 30 50 10
RESERVE......................... 97 60 94 59 / 30 20 60 20
GLENWOOD........................ 100 63 93 63 / 30 20 60 20
CHAMA........................... 92 55 90 54 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 64 90 62 / 20 20 30 5
PECOS........................... 88 59 91 59 / 30 20 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 89 58 90 57 / 20 20 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 82 48 80 48 / 30 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 42 83 42 / 40 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 95 56 94 56 / 10 10 5 20
MORA............................ 84 54 88 54 / 50 20 30 20
ESPANOLA........................ 99 63 97 62 / 10 20 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 93 65 92 63 / 30 20 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 95 63 95 61 / 20 20 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 99 70 96 68 / 30 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 100 68 98 68 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 103 68 100 67 / 20 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 101 70 99 70 / 20 30 0 5
BELEN........................... 101 67 100 66 / 20 40 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 102 68 100 67 / 20 30 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 65 100 65 / 20 40 5 0
CORRALES........................ 103 70 100 69 / 20 30 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 101 67 100 66 / 20 40 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 97 68 96 66 / 20 30 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 101 69 99 68 / 20 30 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 103 72 100 71 / 20 50 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 63 90 62 / 30 30 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 95 65 94 64 / 30 30 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 93 61 94 59 / 30 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 58 95 57 / 30 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 60 91 60 / 20 20 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 62 93 61 / 30 40 30 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 63 91 62 / 20 30 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 97 68 94 67 / 20 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 88 62 86 61 / 20 5 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 80 55 85 55 / 20 30 40 30
RATON........................... 86 55 87 54 / 50 40 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 88 56 92 56 / 40 30 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 57 90 56 / 30 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 84 62 92 62 / 0 20 20 30
ROY............................. 86 61 91 60 / 0 20 10 50
CONCHAS......................... 96 69 99 67 / 0 20 0 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 67 95 65 / 0 10 5 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 99 69 100 68 / 10 10 0 30
CLOVIS.......................... 98 68 97 68 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 99 70 98 70 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 70 98 69 / 0 5 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 102 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 97 67 95 67 / 0 0 5 10
ELK............................. 94 63 92 63 / 5 5 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-205-207-219.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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