291
FXUS65 KABQ 152322
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
422 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 414 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY,
WHILE THE COLDEST ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WEST
WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF CLINES CORNERS IS
VERY LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 30-35MPH. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO
CORRELATING TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THOSE
AREAS. THESE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS ALSO BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM, WHERE A
FEW DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE BROKEN BEFORE THE SUN SETS
TONIGHT. AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, IN ITS WAKE COMES THE FIRST OF SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK. 20-25MPH GUSTS ARE QUITE LIKELY AS
THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NM THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT AN ABRUPT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST EASTERN NM LOCATIONS DROPPING 20F FROM
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE VALUE TO TOMORROW'S. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, SO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL NOT NOTICE MUCH CHANGE OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT
DIP IN TEMPERATURE. SKIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR
WITH ONLY A WISP OF A CLOUD HERE AND THERE.
OUTSIDE OF A DROP IN TEMPERATURES, NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF FRIDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY AS COMPARED TO THE
BREEZY EAST-CENTRAL NM WINDS OF THURSDAY. A LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN, AND AS A RESULT, IT DEVELOPS AND SENDS AN
ADDITIONAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER EASTERN NM LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS FRONT, A BAND OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE SET UP OVER NORTHEAST NM AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE 12Z
NAM RUN DEPICTS THIS WELL WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER GENERATION.
THE NAM DOES SEEMS TO BE BULLISH ON THE PRECIPITATION, THOUGH
OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THIS SETUP OF MID TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR NOW, HAVE ADDED
THE MENTION OF FLURRIES TO NORTHEAST NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
SNOW FLURRIES MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH
CHANCES DROP OFF AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS
EASTERN NM AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW BREEZES ARE ALSO LIKELY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH MAY DROP APPARENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING, AND KEEP IT IN THE 20S THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS SHOULDN'T NECESSITATE ANY COLD WEATHER HAZARDS, THOUGH
IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY MORNING. WHILE THE SHARP TEMPERATURE
DROP WON'T REACH WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AN ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRINGS BREEZY NORTH
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW WINS OUT GOING INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WORKS TO DEVELOP
ANOTHER EASTERN NM SURFACE TROUGH WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. AS IS THE
CASE WITH WEST WINDS, TEMPERATURES REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY IN EASTERN
NM, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS ONE COLLEAGUE PUT IT, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKE A YO-YO ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK, WHILE CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM REMAIN RATHER STAGNANT. OUR THIRD
BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO ENTER EASTERN NM ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN
LOWERING TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL MOVING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WORK TO DECREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL BACKDOOR FRONTS. HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO
SEE OUR 4TH FRONT APPEAR IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. WITH A
WEAK ZONAL PATTERN, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER LIGHT BY NEW
MEXICO STANDARDS, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
(50S AND 60S).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
WINDS IN EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, WITH AN
INCREASE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 09Z AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
SURGES SOUTHWARD. LLWS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE TX BORDER FOR
A FEW HOURS, WITH INTERMITTENT NORTHERLY GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
DOWN TO THE SFC. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.
CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST THU JAN 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
ENTER EASTERN NM MULTIPLE TIMES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, FLUCTUATING
THE TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES IN WESTERN
NM ARE LIKELY SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT BREEZES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE STATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
VENTILATION RATES BECOME GOOD BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONTS AND ON BREEZY
DAYS SUCH AS SATURDAY, BUT WILL BE POOR ELSEWHERE WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 50 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 15 47 11 46 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 20 47 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 51 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 23 50 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 19 52 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 51 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 31 55 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 52 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 60 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 66 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 42 12 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 46 22 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 24 48 17 43 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 42 16 38 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 19 34 12 28 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 40 1 33 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 15 46 10 42 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 23 48 14 40 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 21 52 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 47 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 49 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 53 31 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 55 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 57 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 56 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 21 56 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 27 56 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 21 56 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 57 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 56 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 29 52 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 56 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 29 59 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 48 25 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 49 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 51 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 52 18 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 47 18 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 52 23 46 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 53 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 57 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 52 28 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 40 10 30 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 16 44 11 35 / 0 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 17 47 12 36 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 22 46 14 36 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 25 43 16 35 / 0 0 10 10
ROY............................. 22 42 15 34 / 0 0 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 25 49 18 40 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 26 48 19 39 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 49 18 39 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 29 48 20 39 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 28 50 20 43 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 27 50 20 42 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 32 55 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 52 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 53 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16
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