829
FXUS65 KABQ 051146 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
PROTECTED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
DUE TO SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
WAS EXPANDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING FOG WAS MENTIONED FOR ANGEL FIRE. UPDATED
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
OVERALL, PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE PRIMARY WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO COME FROM PATCHY FOG, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW
CLOUDS, AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STILL REMAINS SITUATED OVER UT TONIGHT, WITH ITS AREA OF
INFLUENCE REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS NM
REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S, SIGNALING THAT SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
REMAINS AFTER OUR LONG STRETCH OF RAINFALL. GIVEN THE MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NM (BEST CHANCES FROM CLOVIS TO FORT
SUMNER TO SANTA ROSA), NEAR THE ESTANCIA VALLEY, AND IN SHELTERED
HIGH-TERRAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. FROM THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD, WEAK EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE, PRIMARILY FROM
RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL SOUTHWARD. BOTH THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO LOWER VISIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH LIS FORECAST IN THE -2 TO -4C
RANGE. ANY SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE A RESULT OF
SURFACE HEATING, AS LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 0.4-0.6"
RANGE, SO ANY SHOWER/STORM IS FAVORED TO PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION, AND WILL LIKELY BE MORE VIRGA IN NATURE WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION AREAS, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE ARE GOOD FOR BEING WITHIN 5F OF AVERAGE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN SIMILAR AREAS MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THE MOMENT.
INTO TUESDAY, A 250MB SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE OVER THE AREA,
FLATTENING AND WEAKENING THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, ALBEIT NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE A BIT MORE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AS A RESULT OF EXIT REGION DYNAMICS.
LIS AND PWATS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH IN VALUE GOING INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH
THE LIS DO SPREAD FURTHER INTO WESTERN NM. WITH THE ADDITIONAL
SYNOPTIC LIFT, IT'S LIKELY WE WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THEY ARE STILL FORECAST TO
PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION, SO GUSTY WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE 250MB JET STREAK LOOKS TO REMAIN ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF NM THROUGHOUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. A WEAK 500MB INVERTED TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
REMNANTS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WITHIN THIS TIME AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THE CHANCES OF
DRIER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACROSS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THE 250MB JET STREAK BEGINS TO DEVELOP A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NM, FORMING EITHER A CLOSED LOW OR OPEN WAVE AT 500MB (MODELS BEGIN
TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF SAID FEATURE BY THIS POINT). THE
FAVORED LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR OR EAST OF
THE BIG BEND IN TX. HOWEVER, SHOULD THIS FEATURE FORM FURTHER WEST,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST NM.
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
A HEFTY LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE IS CURRENTLY
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS, AS
WELL AS HOW STRONG AND SHARP IT BECOMES. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS, THE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OUTCOME AT THIS TIME IS A SHARPER,
STRONGER SYSTEM, WHICH WORKS TO DRAW IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND
PROVIDE A MORE ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORED SOLUTION IS THE LOW REMAINING WEAKER AND
MORE CONFINED TO THE PNW. IN THIS CASE, LESS MOISTURE WOULD BE
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL
OF BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE CONTINUING TO ENVELOP PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM, AS WELL AS SHELTERED, HIGH-TERRAIN
VALLEY AREAS. BRIEF TO CONSISTENT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT TERMINALS ACROSS THESE AREAS, INCLUDING KROW, KCVN, AND KAXX
UNTIL 16Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT
BEING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF PRECIPITATION, ERCS REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE WITH NO IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR FINE FUELS TO BECOME
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE GROWTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON THIS WEEK, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
FROM THESE. GUSTY WINDS AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS. VENTILATION RATES REMAIN POOR TO FAIR ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH POCKETS OF GOOD TO GREAT FILLING IN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 52 79 52 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 76 41 77 42 / 5 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 71 47 75 48 / 5 5 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 76 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 20
EL MORRO........................ 72 43 74 45 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 73 46 76 47 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 72 43 74 46 / 0 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 69 47 73 50 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 68 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 75 44 78 48 / 0 0 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 78 50 81 53 / 0 0 20 5
CHAMA........................... 70 42 71 42 / 30 10 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 50 74 52 / 5 5 10 5
PECOS........................... 70 46 77 46 / 10 5 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 43 73 43 / 20 5 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 67 36 68 36 / 30 10 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 70 26 71 28 / 20 10 10 0
TAOS............................ 72 43 75 43 / 10 5 5 0
MORA............................ 71 45 74 46 / 20 5 10 0
ESPANOLA........................ 75 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 70 50 75 50 / 5 5 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 53 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 50 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 76 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 76 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 74 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 53 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 76 53 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 47 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 49 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 71 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 47 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 47 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 52 74 53 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 43 71 45 / 10 5 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 46 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 75 45 81 47 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 77 44 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 45 77 46 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 75 54 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 71 46 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 77 55 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 53 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 56 85 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 75 55 81 56 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 76 56 82 56 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 56 82 55 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 57 82 57 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 73 52 79 54 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 49 75 51 / 20 5 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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