390
FXUS65 KABQ 240750
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
150 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT INDUCED ILLNESS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEAT RISK IN SOME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY AND
THURSDAY, WHEN THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS, AND A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STORMS WITH LIGHTER RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
A BUSY DAY IS AHEAD FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT WITH VARYING
HAZARDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 595-596DAM AND SAG JUST A BIT SOUTHWARD TODAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE TO ROUND THE HIGH INTO
NM. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACHED, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AND LARGE
INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG OF
DCAPE. THUS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY VIRGA SHOWER OR DRY THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING TO BETWEEN 0.8 AND
1.0 INCHES AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN AND TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING OCCURS. THEREFORE, ANY RAINFALL PERSISTING FROM SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL HAVE AN INCREASINGLY
BETTER CHANCE AT REACHING THE GROUND. EVEN SO, AMOUNTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DRY VEGETATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY, THE
CONCERN IS THAT SEVERAL NEW FIRES MAY START DUE TO LIGHTNING.
MEANWHILE ACROSS EASTERN NM, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE CONCERN.
EARLY THIS MORNING, SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO AND WILL JUST SKIRT NORTHEAST NM. AS THOSE STORMS
CONTINUE TO TREK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND GROW UPSCALE, AN
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO NE NM AND PRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, EVENTUALLY BACKING UP TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. ADDITIONALLY, AN EARLIER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGED WESTWARD AND BROUGHT INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO EASTERN NM, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL
ONLY REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND 2PM ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
STORMS WILL THEN SHIFT EAST OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE 40-50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
1500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT’S UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHT’S STORMS WILL PUSH, BUT THE FAVORED
SEVERE STORM AREA WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME CAMS
CURRENTLY PAINT THAT AREA FROM BETWEEN LVS AND CQC SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS GUADALUPE, DE BACA, CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS BY THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN ON THURSDAY
ALLOWING A DIRECT PATH FOR MOISTURE INTO NM. PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 0.85 TO OVER AN INCH, WHICH IS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ERUPT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING OVERHEAD. STORMS WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT PRODUCING WETTING PRECIPITATION (>0.10”) BUT QUICK STORM
MOTIONS (TOWARD THE EAST AT 20-30 MPH) WILL LIMIT THE RAINFALL AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOSE INTO
NORTHEAST NM THURSDAY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NM ON FRIDAY, BUT PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, SO THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINFALL, BUT STORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL.
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT OVER NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND
DAYTIME MIXING SATURDAY WILL SCOUR OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH COMMON. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS ACROSS EASTERN NM.
RETURN FLOW LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON,
DESPITE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE MIXING OUT. ELSEWHERE, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A BIGGER RETURN
MONDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40KT BEHIND IT.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLDU IS POSSIBLE. THESE
GUSTS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO PERSIST, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF NM. HOWEVER, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS
WILL PRESS INTO NE NM, SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, AND BACK UP TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM WED AFTN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY 06Z
THU.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH
ANY SHOWER OR STORM. PWATS INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO NM, AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. THOUGH
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE, SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF
WETTING RAIN ARE EXPECTED DUE TO FAST STORM MOTIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY, WITH MORE STORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WELL. FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT’S
LIKELY THAT ANY LIGHTNING-STARTED FIRES WILL GROW UNDER THE WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, BUT
MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
BETTER RETURN FLOW WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT, INCREASING STORM
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 94 59 90 60 / 20 50 20 40
DULCE........................... 92 47 86 46 / 20 40 10 40
CUBA............................ 91 55 85 54 / 20 40 40 40
GALLUP.......................... 91 51 87 51 / 30 30 40 40
EL MORRO........................ 90 53 84 53 / 20 20 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 93 53 88 53 / 40 30 40 30
QUEMADO......................... 90 56 85 55 / 20 20 60 20
MAGDALENA....................... 91 62 88 61 / 30 10 60 20
DATIL........................... 88 58 85 57 / 30 10 60 10
RESERVE......................... 97 53 93 52 / 30 30 30 5
GLENWOOD........................ 102 60 98 58 / 10 20 30 0
CHAMA........................... 85 46 79 45 / 10 50 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 90 61 84 60 / 20 30 40 20
PECOS........................... 92 56 87 55 / 10 20 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 55 81 53 / 10 40 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 79 47 73 46 / 10 50 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 43 78 43 / 10 50 20 10
TAOS............................ 91 53 85 51 / 10 40 20 20
MORA............................ 88 53 84 53 / 20 30 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 97 59 91 57 / 10 30 40 30
SANTA FE........................ 92 61 86 60 / 10 30 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 95 59 90 57 / 10 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 99 68 93 65 / 5 20 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 100 64 94 62 / 5 20 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 101 63 96 61 / 10 20 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 65 94 63 / 10 20 60 30
BELEN........................... 101 62 96 59 / 5 20 60 30
BERNALILLO...................... 100 65 94 63 / 10 20 50 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 100 61 95 58 / 5 20 60 30
CORRALES........................ 101 64 95 63 / 10 20 50 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 101 62 95 59 / 5 20 60 30
PLACITAS........................ 97 66 91 64 / 10 20 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 100 64 94 62 / 10 20 50 30
SOCORRO......................... 103 68 99 66 / 10 10 50 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 94 61 88 59 / 5 20 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 95 61 89 59 / 10 20 50 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 96 57 91 56 / 5 20 40 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 97 55 93 54 / 5 20 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 92 56 88 56 / 10 20 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 97 57 92 56 / 0 20 40 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 95 59 91 58 / 5 20 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 99 66 96 65 / 10 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 92 61 90 61 / 20 10 20 20
CAPULIN......................... 84 52 86 51 / 50 40 20 20
RATON........................... 90 52 90 52 / 40 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 90 54 91 55 / 40 40 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 56 88 56 / 30 30 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 86 60 94 59 / 20 20 20 30
ROY............................. 88 57 91 57 / 40 40 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 96 61 100 63 / 30 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 60 95 62 / 30 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 64 100 66 / 20 30 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 99 65 100 66 / 10 40 20 20
PORTALES........................ 100 66 101 66 / 5 40 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 64 99 64 / 20 40 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 104 69 103 68 / 0 20 20 30
PICACHO......................... 99 64 98 64 / 20 10 30 20
ELK............................. 98 62 97 62 / 20 10 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page