316
FXUS65 KABQ 281121 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
- FLASH FLOODING AT A HEIGHTENED RISK STATEWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BRINGS
WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- RIVER FLOODING FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
- GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
THREATEN DOWNED TREES IN SATURATED SOILS AND HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD RISK
STILL HAS MULTIPLE FACTORS ALIGNING TO IMPACT MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON, PEAKING TUESDAY, AND LASTING INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE
REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING 12PM MDT MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BEGINNING 6PM MDT MONDAY. BOTH CURRENTLY
LAST TO 6AM MDT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE LONGER EXTENSIONS AS
NEEDED. MANY AREAS WILL SEE 48-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGH-END AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4 TO
5+ INCHES. LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, URBAN AREAS AND
ARROYO SYSTEMS, NEAR RIVER BANKS, RECENT BURN SCARS WILL THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING ANY WARNINGS ISSUED, AND BE WEATHER
AWARE.
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY IS RESOLVING THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE FROM
THE GHOSTLY REMNANTS OF TS ODALYS BEING SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD OVER
AZ WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AZ EVIDENT ON RADAR. SW-NE
ORIENTED LINES OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED FAST MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SHEAR AND DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE APPROACHING 565DM H5 LOW OVER SOCAL WILL
INCREASE WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. THESE AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INCLUDING PLACES FROM GRANTS TO
GALLUP TO FARMINGTON AND NAVAJO NATION WILL SEE A PEAK IN FLASH
FLOOD RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LINE OF MORE INTENSE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY
EVENING. THE LATEST 00Z SUITE OF HIRES CAMS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM SOCORRO TO ABQ TO SANTA FE AND
POTENTIALLY NORTHWARD TO TAOS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WAVE OF PEAK
PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES AND FLASH FLOOD RISK MONDAY EVENING.
AFTERNOON DRIVEN CONVECTION FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NM LOOKS TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOCORRO COUNTY WITH NORTHWARD DRIVEN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FAVORABLY INVIGORATING CONVECTION ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED SW-NE ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY LOOKS TO LESSEN NEAR OR JUST PAST MIDNIGHT
FOR THIS AREA WHILE THIS WAVE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NM
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER, TUESDAY SEES THE REMNANT BUT STILL INTACT MOISTURE CORE
OF POLO MOVE ASHORE NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WHILE THE H5 LOW SPINS TO
ITS NORTH OVER CENTRAL AZ. HOW POLO'S REMNANTS MERGE WITH THIS H5
LOW IS STILL SUBTLY UNCERTAIN OVER NM. CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE RANGES IN THE CORE OF POLO'S MOISTURE PLUME TRACKING EITHER
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM FROM EL PASO TO T OR C UP TO ABQ
AND SANTA FE -OR- MOVING MORE TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NM IMPACTING EL PASO TO ROSWELL TO CLOVIS. EITHER TRACK FAVORS A
TIMING OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE MOST INTENSE
PRECIPITATION. NEITHER TRACK BODES WELL FOR THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS
UNFORTUNATELY. THE COMBINATION OF RECORD LEVEL MOISTURE (HIGHLIGHTED
BY PWAT CLIMBING TO 1.20" TO 1.40", FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
HIGHLIGHTED BY STRONG SHEAR AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHERE THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE GOES. THE CURRENT TIMING OF TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALSO DOES NOT BODE WELL GIVEN THE THREAT OF
NIGHT TIME FLASH FLOODING. ONE PERHAPS FAVORABLE FACTOR IS THE SPEED
AT WHICH POLO'S MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MOVING, KEEPING THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TO WITHIN A ~3HR WINDOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS IT
TRACKS OVER. A SECONDARY HAZARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. WHILE NOT
NOTABLY STRONG BY NEW MEXICO STANDARDS, THE COMBINATION OF ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS BEING POUNDED ON BY MORE RAIN WILL MAKE IT EASIER
FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS TO KNOCK DOWN TREES AND CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR SOME HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONGSIDE LOWER
VISIBILITY.
WHILE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN NM, DUE TO
THE FORECAST TRACK OF POLO'S REMNANTS FAVORING THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE, FLASH FLOODING RISK LOOKS TO LOWER A BIT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEGINS THE FINAL PHASE OF THIS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOUR
EVENT AS NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LOOK TO BRING A DRY SLOT PUNCHING
IN BEHIND THE REMNANTS OF POLO, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DYNAMICS AROUND HOW
POLO IS ABSORBED INTO THE H5 LOW OVER NM, EITHER FULLY MERGING WITH
THE LOW OVER NORTHERN NM OR BEING EJECTED OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
HOW EXACTLY THIS MELDING OF SYSTEMS PLAYS WILL DETERMINE WHEN
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END FOR ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER IT PLAYS
OUT, IT CAN BE SAID THAT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ONGOING
LOWER INTENSITY SHOWERS OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM
WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY LASTING OVER WESTERN NM AS LONG AS THURSDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOKS TO STEADILY CLEAR WEST TO EAST OVER THE
STATE THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION LASTING OVER EASTERN NM AS LATE
AS FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEEKEND FINALLY ARRIVES WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS AND REMNANT
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE FORM OF HIGHER HUMIDITY.
RIVER FLOODING AND MORNING AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER
THE STATE DURING THIS TIME HOWEVER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER FAR WESTERN NM THIS HOUR,
INTENSIFYING WITH SPORADIC MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. STRAY
FAST MOVING EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
AS OVERALL PRECIPITATION EXPANDS EASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS ARE INCLUDED MAINLY FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM RISK DURING THIS TIME REACHING AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THEREAFTER, CEILINGS LOOK TO LOWER
WITH LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD THROUGH THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE ALL WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON.
VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOT REACHING EASTERN NM
UNTIL NEAR 03Z TO 06Z AND THEREAFTER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM MDT MON SEP 28 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL NOT BE APPLICABLE AND IS ENTIRELY IRRELEVANT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A HISTORIC SURGE OF MOISTURE SURGES
THRU THE STATE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO. DRIER CONDITIONS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND HIGHER HUMIDITY LINGERING THRU NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 53 63 52 / 100 100 80 90
DULCE........................... 63 45 59 41 / 100 100 80 90
CUBA............................ 67 50 55 45 / 90 100 90 90
GALLUP.......................... 68 47 58 41 / 90 100 90 90
EL MORRO........................ 68 45 54 39 / 80 100 90 90
GRANTS.......................... 71 50 57 43 / 90 100 90 90
QUEMADO......................... 73 51 57 43 / 80 100 100 80
MAGDALENA....................... 75 55 59 47 / 50 100 100 80
DATIL........................... 70 50 56 42 / 80 100 90 70
RESERVE......................... 78 54 64 45 / 80 100 100 70
GLENWOOD........................ 82 57 69 48 / 90 100 90 70
CHAMA........................... 58 46 53 43 / 90 100 90 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 52 57 49 / 40 100 100 90
PECOS........................... 73 52 60 47 / 20 100 90 90
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 49 58 46 / 40 100 90 90
RED RIVER....................... 59 43 51 39 / 40 100 90 90
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 39 55 34 / 20 100 90 100
TAOS............................ 69 48 61 44 / 30 100 90 90
MORA............................ 69 51 59 46 / 10 100 90 90
ESPANOLA........................ 77 55 65 50 / 30 100 100 90
SANTA FE........................ 73 54 60 49 / 30 100 100 90
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 53 61 48 / 30 100 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 80 57 63 52 / 40 100 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 57 64 52 / 40 100 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 57 65 52 / 40 100 100 90
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 58 63 53 / 40 100 100 90
BELEN........................... 84 57 65 51 / 40 100 100 80
BERNALILLO...................... 82 57 64 52 / 40 100 100 90
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 83 55 65 50 / 40 100 100 90
CORRALES........................ 81 58 65 52 / 40 100 100 90
LOS LUNAS....................... 83 57 65 51 / 40 100 100 90
PLACITAS........................ 79 57 61 52 / 30 100 100 90
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 58 63 53 / 40 100 100 90
SOCORRO......................... 83 59 69 52 / 30 100 100 80
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 52 59 47 / 30 100 100 90
TIJERAS......................... 75 55 60 49 / 30 100 100 90
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 53 61 47 / 30 100 90 90
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 52 63 46 / 20 100 90 90
CLINES CORNERS.................. 75 52 60 47 / 10 100 90 90
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 53 61 47 / 20 100 90 90
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 54 61 48 / 10 100 100 90
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 58 67 53 / 5 90 100 90
RUIDOSO......................... 76 55 64 48 / 10 90 100 90
CAPULIN......................... 71 53 61 49 / 0 90 80 90
RATON........................... 74 53 64 50 / 0 90 90 90
SPRINGER........................ 76 54 65 51 / 0 100 90 90
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 53 61 49 / 5 100 90 90
CLAYTON......................... 79 60 68 56 / 0 70 90 90
ROY............................. 76 57 64 53 / 0 100 90 90
CONCHAS......................... 85 63 73 58 / 0 100 90 90
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 61 68 57 / 0 90 90 90
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 63 76 58 / 0 90 90 90
CLOVIS.......................... 85 63 76 59 / 5 80 90 90
PORTALES........................ 87 64 78 61 / 0 80 90 90
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 63 75 59 / 0 80 90 90
ROSWELL......................... 87 63 79 60 / 0 80 90 70
PICACHO......................... 83 60 74 55 / 0 80 90 80
ELK............................. 83 57 74 52 / 5 90 90 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ201>211-213-214-216>221-224>226-241.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
NMZ212-215-222-223-227>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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