682
FXUS65 KABQ 280024 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 458 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
- RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SLICK ROADS ON HIGH MOUNTAIN
PASSES.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES
MONDAY. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
MONDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT KABQ WAS EXTRAORDINARY HIGH (10,100 FEET) SO MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN TODAY. WHERE IT IS SNOWING IN
THE HIGH MOUNTAINS, THE SNOW IS VERY HEAVY AND WET, WITH SEASONABLY
LOW SNOW RATIOS (AROUND 10:1). THIS UNUSUALLY WARM AIRMASS IS ABLE
TO HOLD CONSIDERABLY MORE WATER THAN A TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER
ATMOSPHERE SO PWATS AND IVT ARE RIGHT AROUND THE MAX OF CLIMATOLOGY.
THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING,
WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST AS SNOW LEVELS
DROP. GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR AND THE PROJECTED SNOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY END UP
BEING THE BIG WINNERS WITH THIS EVENT, AS OPPOSED TO THE TUSAS WHERE
SNOW HAS BEEN LESS PERSISTENT TODAY.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. A QUICK BURST OF RAIN/SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, BUT MOST
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL DRY OUT AS IT MOVES PAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS,
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT, SHOWING LESS
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES IN ITS WAKE AND THEREFORE WEAKER WIND
SPEEDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL STILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. GIVEN THE BREEZE, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST OF THE DAY IN WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN SUNDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A
CHILLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH MID-20S AND COLDER EVERYWHERE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SNOW
SHOWERS IN SOUTHEASTERN NM, BUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS BAND
REMAINS A POINT OF UNCERTAINTY. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST
SNOW SOUTH OF THE CWA, WITH CHAVES AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES. 25TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS SHOW LESS THAN 1"
AREAWIDE, WHILE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS HAVE 10" IN SW CHAVES
COUNTY AND 5 TO 7" BETWEEN RUIDOSO AND ROSWELL. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
THIS IS A VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY FORECAST, BUT IS BEING MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS IN AREAS
THAT DON'T TYPICALLY SEE SNOW. CLUSTER 3 FROM THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS
(~25% OF ENSEMBLES, SKEWED TOWARDS THE GEFS) SHOWS THIS AREA OF LIFT
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NM ON TUESDAY SO LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE ABQ METRO AREA. ANY SNOW THAT DID FALL WOULD BE UNIMPACTFUL
GIVEN HOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVERHEAD. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN STREAMING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES LATER
IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE SO
ENSEMBLE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS HIGH. THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE FOR
WETTER WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO, SANDIA, AND MANZANO
MOUNTAINS. THEN, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
FOCUS MOSTLY ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF
WESTERN NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. ON
SUNDAY, ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE CO BORDER AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE, WEST WINDS WILL
REACH 40-60 KT AT 10K FT MSL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL THEN WEAKEN FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT LINGERING LONGEST
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, INCLUDING KLVS
AND KSRR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AS A PACIFIC FRONT USHERS IN A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS. A STRONG NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. WIND SPEEDS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN FOR SUNDAY, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WORSE VENTILATION
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A BAND OF SNOW MAY IMPACT THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES RETURNING TO
WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL NM LATE NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 43 20 41 / 40 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 42 11 45 / 70 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 26 39 17 41 / 50 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 22 43 7 44 / 30 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 24 42 15 43 / 40 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 27 44 8 44 / 20 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 27 45 19 46 / 20 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 31 48 25 40 / 20 0 5 20
DATIL........................... 28 45 21 41 / 20 0 5 20
RESERVE......................... 30 54 18 53 / 40 0 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 36 60 23 56 / 40 0 20 30
CHAMA........................... 19 35 14 39 / 80 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 40 21 38 / 60 10 0 5
PECOS........................... 30 46 17 40 / 40 5 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 25 37 18 40 / 50 20 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 21 29 14 32 / 50 20 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 36 0 37 / 50 20 5 0
TAOS............................ 28 42 13 42 / 60 10 5 0
MORA............................ 29 43 13 42 / 40 10 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 31 48 18 46 / 60 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 30 44 23 40 / 60 10 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 46 22 42 / 50 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 48 27 44 / 40 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 51 26 47 / 30 5 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 36 54 23 48 / 30 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 51 26 46 / 30 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 37 54 18 46 / 30 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 34 52 26 47 / 50 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 53 18 47 / 30 5 5 10
CORRALES........................ 34 52 25 47 / 40 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 54 20 47 / 30 5 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 33 47 27 43 / 50 5 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 51 25 47 / 40 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 38 58 24 47 / 20 0 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 43 22 39 / 50 5 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 33 45 23 41 / 40 5 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 33 45 19 40 / 40 0 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 47 13 40 / 30 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 43 17 35 / 20 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 33 48 20 41 / 20 0 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 35 49 20 41 / 20 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 54 25 42 / 20 10 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 37 50 22 34 / 30 5 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 29 35 12 36 / 0 30 0 0
RATON........................... 33 38 12 38 / 0 30 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 34 45 11 40 / 0 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 46 14 36 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 43 16 41 / 0 10 0 0
ROY............................. 36 46 15 39 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 41 57 19 45 / 5 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 55 20 39 / 5 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 58 18 45 / 10 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 59 21 41 / 10 0 10 10
PORTALES........................ 44 61 21 42 / 10 0 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 59 18 40 / 5 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 45 66 25 38 / 5 0 30 50
PICACHO......................... 44 61 23 36 / 5 0 20 40
ELK............................. 43 62 19 34 / 5 0 30 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210-213-
214.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
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