385
FXUS65 KABQ 271754
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
- LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TODAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN SOME SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS
ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN PASSES LIKE U.S. 64, NM-17, NM-38, AND
NM-518.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN IT'S WAKE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON PASS
SUNDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM CLIPS THE AREA.
- POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN
COUNTY ON MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SNOW IS LOW AT
THIS TIME, SO PEOPLE PLANNING ON TRAVELLING ACROSS THIS AREA ON
MONDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW THAT HAS BEEN OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST MOST OF THIS WEEK HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. WITH THIS, HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
BETTER LIFT IS MOVING INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 0.6 TO
0.8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY MIDDAY TODAY WHICH ARE
RECORD VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER BASED ON THE SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY
AT KABQ. SNOW LEVELS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM WILL BE
LOWER THAN CHRISTMAS DAY AT AROUND 8,500 TO 9,000 FT, BUT STILL
UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR LATE DECEMBER. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY TODAY. ABOVE 9,000 FT, SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL RACK UP DUE TO RECORD MOIST ATMOSPHERE. CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY UP TO A FOOT OF WET SNOW ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
WPC AND THE HREF AND WITH PEOPLE TRAVELLING TO SKI RESORTS IN THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, A
STRONGER SURFACE LEE TROUGH AT AROUND 998 MB WILL DEVELOP EAST OF
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY. THIS ALONG WITH 700 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY LOWER A TOUCH MORE DUE TO THE LOWER UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, BUT
REMAIN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MOSTLY TAPERS OFF SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT WITH UPSLOPE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING SOME
LIGHT SNOW GOING ACROSS THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS, BUT RATES WILL BE LOWER THAN DURING THE DAY
TODAY. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 5,500 TO 6,000 BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH STATE OVERNIGHT.
ON SUNDAY, A COLDER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT
INTO NORTHEAST NM MID SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTH (NORTHWEST) WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
(PACIFIC) FRONTS. WITH THESE FRONTS, HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY FALL
TO TYPICAL VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS WESTERN,
NORTHERN, AND CENTRAL NM AND 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NM. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS NOW
TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE TROUGH COMPARED
TO 24 HOURS AGO. AS A RESULT, LIGHT SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NM (I.E. RATON PASS
AND THE JOHNSON AND BARTLETT MESAS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE TRUE TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
FROM THE FRONTS ON SUNDAY WILL BE FELT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20. A LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 117 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
A COLD MONDAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM IN THE WAKE
OF SUNDAY'S SYSTEM. HIGHS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE A SHOCK TO THE
SYSTEM FOR FOLKS AFTER ALL THE RECORD WARMTH THESE LAST 2 WEEKS.
NOW, A INTERESTING DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THIS PAST 24 HOURS, FIRST
PICKED UP BY THE ECMWF AND IT'S AI VERSION AND NOW THE REST OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NM/MEXICO BORDER COME MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SURFACE UPSLOPE
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA RESULTING IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND
RESULTANT PWATS AT AROUND 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT AT
THE 305 K LEVEL ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION SUNRISE MONDAY CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MAINLY SNOW DUE TO A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA, BUT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY LOOK TO BE ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE TO CENTER PART OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
WHERE THIS BAND OF SNOW SETS UP WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY. AS OF
NOW, CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE HAS MEAN 12 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CHAVES AND 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS SHOW AROUND 4
TO 5 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY, AND 8 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST
CHAVES COUNTY. PEOPLE PLANNING ON TRAVELLING ACROSS THIS AREA ON
MONDAY SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS.
AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, EXCEPT
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NM ON TUESDAY COULD BE COLDER
THAN ADVERTISED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS ON MONDAY. THE
GRADUAL WARMUP CONTINUES AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025 AND RING IN 2026 DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD WITH HIGHS ON NEW YEAR'S
EVE AND NEW YEAR'S DAY AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, CREATING A
BRISK NORTHWEST WIND MEANWHILE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COMPONENT OF THE FRONT IN EASTERN NM. RAPID
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THESE FRONTS WILL END PRECIP AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT, WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS LINGERING THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 117 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025.
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY DUE TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS, MILD
TEMPERATURES, ERCS AROUND THE 50TH PERCENTILE, AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT. RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM SATURDAY. COLDER AND MORE
TYPICAL DECEMBER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY DUE TO A
POTENT FRONT. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND RATON PASS AREA SUNDAY MORNING.LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY MONDAY. MILDER AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025 AND RING IN
2026 DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. VENTILATION
WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR MOST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING POOR
FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS OF 2025 AND NEW YEAR'S DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 26 43 20 / 50 40 0 0
DULCE........................... 49 23 42 11 / 90 70 20 0
CUBA............................ 50 26 39 17 / 70 50 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 22 43 7 / 60 30 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 24 42 15 / 70 40 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 27 44 8 / 60 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 27 45 19 / 70 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 31 48 25 / 40 20 0 5
DATIL........................... 51 28 45 21 / 50 20 0 5
RESERVE......................... 55 30 54 18 / 80 40 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 60 36 60 23 / 90 40 0 20
CHAMA........................... 43 19 35 14 / 90 80 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 29 40 21 / 80 60 10 0
PECOS........................... 52 30 46 17 / 70 40 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 25 37 18 / 70 50 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 39 21 29 14 / 60 50 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 26 36 0 / 60 50 20 5
TAOS............................ 51 28 42 13 / 70 60 10 5
MORA............................ 55 29 43 13 / 60 40 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 56 31 48 18 / 70 60 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 30 44 23 / 80 60 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 31 46 22 / 70 50 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 34 48 27 / 80 40 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 35 51 26 / 60 30 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 60 36 54 23 / 60 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 34 51 26 / 60 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 60 37 54 18 / 50 30 5 5
BERNALILLO...................... 59 34 52 26 / 70 50 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 60 36 53 18 / 60 30 5 5
CORRALES........................ 59 34 52 25 / 60 40 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 36 54 20 / 60 30 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 33 47 27 / 80 50 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 33 51 25 / 60 40 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 38 58 24 / 30 20 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 31 43 22 / 80 50 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 52 33 45 23 / 80 40 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 33 45 19 / 70 40 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 34 47 13 / 60 30 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 31 43 17 / 50 20 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 33 48 20 / 70 20 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 35 49 20 / 50 20 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 40 54 25 / 30 20 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 59 37 50 22 / 20 30 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 29 35 12 / 0 0 30 0
RATON........................... 61 33 38 12 / 5 0 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 64 34 45 11 / 10 0 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 33 46 14 / 30 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 33 43 16 / 0 0 10 0
ROY............................. 64 36 46 15 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 71 41 57 19 / 10 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 41 55 20 / 20 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 43 58 18 / 10 10 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 74 44 59 21 / 0 10 0 10
PORTALES........................ 76 44 61 21 / 0 10 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 42 59 18 / 10 5 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 77 45 66 25 / 5 5 0 30
PICACHO......................... 73 44 61 23 / 5 5 0 20
ELK............................. 71 43 62 19 / 5 5 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210-213-
214.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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