956
FXUS65 KABQ 091834
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1234 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY AND
MONDAY, SLOWLY INCREASING THRU NEXT WEEK. RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
RETURNS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEEK.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY WITH
THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING OBSERVING A 597DM H5 HEIGHT AND 0.94" PW. THIS
WILL YIELD ANOTHER ROUND SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE 40F TO 50F TD DEPRESSIONS WILL YIELD DCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1500 J/KG BENEATH THE BASE OF MANY OF THESE SHOWERS, CAPABLE
OF YIELDING STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EMANATING FROM ANY NEARBY
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU (FARMINGTON). CONDITIONS
CALM OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY SEES LITTLE TO NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE FROM TODAY WITH THE
MONSOON HIGH CONTINUING ITS SLOW WEAKENING TO ~595DM AT H5, STILL
MOSTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN MIDDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OVER SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS FORECAST. RAIN EFFICIENCY OF
THESE CELLS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN TODAY, BUT WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE
ANOTHER STEP DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO RELATIVE TO SUNDAY'S READINGS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TUESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE MONSOON
HIGH STILL LINGERING ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER NEAR 595DM. WITH
SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SUPPRESSION BENEATH THE RIDGE, A SLIGHTLY
HEALTHIER CROP OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS FAVORED TO AGAIN
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
WILL DRIFT CELLS OVER SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY SEES THE HIGH RECENTER ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH A NOTABLE
TAP OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CA INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWS RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 1.00"
ALLOWING FOR A MUCH HEALTHIER CROP OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. STORM
MOTIONS WILL FAVOR A SSW/NNE MOTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF THE STATE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WILL
THREATEN FLASH FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND RECENT BURN
SCARS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC AND
GULF OF CA BEING PUSHED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ALONG THE GULF COAST CONTINUES THURSDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAILY ROUNDS OF ROBUST AND HEALTHY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF NM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND LOWER DURING THIS
TIME, TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL AGAIN FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, STRUGGLING TO
MOVE OVER NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ARE MODERATE CONFIDENCE PROB30S AT KSAF AND KABQ
FOR THIS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR HOW MUCH SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES
FIRE CAN MAKE IT TO KSAF LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 PM MDT SUN AUG 9 2026
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ALONGSIDE
LIGHT TO MODEST PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS. DEEP MIXING COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HEAT AND DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ONGOING FIRES
TO BURN HOT TODAY. SCATTERED VIRGA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL
AGAIN THREATEN STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WHERE THEY DO POP-UP. THIS
WILL CONTINUE A RISK OF DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR WHERE THESE GUSTY
WINDS ENCOUNTER AN ONGOING FIRE. OTHERWISE, THE LIGHT TO MODEST
PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEE THE MONSOON HIGH OVER NM
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A SLOW RETREAT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM RECENT NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT. A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS
THE HIGH RECENTERS ITSELF ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL BRING IN A
NOTABLE UPTICK IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF NM WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL
UPTICK IN DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST. THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
NOTABLY OVER RECENT BURN SCARS, WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OCCURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 98 65 96 / 0 0 10 5
DULCE........................... 53 94 52 93 / 0 5 10 40
CUBA............................ 61 94 59 91 / 5 10 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 60 92 58 90 / 20 30 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 57 87 56 85 / 10 40 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 61 92 59 91 / 10 30 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 60 88 59 86 / 20 30 30 50
MAGDALENA....................... 64 90 64 89 / 10 10 10 40
DATIL........................... 59 86 59 85 / 20 40 10 50
RESERVE......................... 57 92 56 90 / 20 30 10 50
GLENWOOD........................ 62 96 60 94 / 20 30 5 50
CHAMA........................... 53 88 52 85 / 0 10 10 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 90 62 89 / 5 30 30 30
PECOS........................... 58 92 59 91 / 10 20 10 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 89 58 87 / 5 10 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 50 80 49 78 / 5 20 30 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 85 41 83 / 0 20 20 60
TAOS............................ 56 93 56 90 / 0 10 20 20
MORA............................ 55 89 55 87 / 5 30 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 63 98 62 97 / 5 10 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 64 93 64 91 / 5 10 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 95 61 93 / 5 5 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 98 70 96 / 10 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 98 68 97 / 10 0 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 99 67 99 / 10 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 99 70 98 / 10 0 20 10
BELEN........................... 66 100 66 99 / 10 0 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 68 100 68 99 / 10 0 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 98 65 98 / 10 0 10 10
CORRALES........................ 70 100 69 99 / 10 0 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 99 67 98 / 10 0 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 68 96 68 95 / 10 0 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 99 69 98 / 10 0 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 70 101 70 100 / 5 0 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 91 63 90 / 20 5 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 64 93 64 92 / 20 5 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 93 59 92 / 20 10 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 95 57 94 / 20 10 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 91 61 90 / 20 20 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 93 60 93 / 20 5 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 10 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 94 67 95 / 0 0 10 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 87 61 88 / 0 10 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 60 90 59 89 / 5 20 10 30
RATON........................... 57 94 57 93 / 5 10 5 30
SPRINGER........................ 57 96 57 95 / 5 10 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 92 57 91 / 10 10 10 40
CLAYTON......................... 68 98 68 98 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 63 93 63 93 / 20 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 68 101 69 101 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 97 66 98 / 5 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 67 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 59 92 61 93 / 0 5 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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