479
FXUS65 KABQ 161158 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
458 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 436 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS FOR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. DANGEROUS TRAVEL MAY OCCUR FOR
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CREATING LOW
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
- PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND FRIDAY. SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY OCCUR WITH STRONG WINDS, BLOWING SNOW,
AND LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SNOW MAY SPREAD TO A LARGER AREA OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (PEAKING TUESDAY)
AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAINLY
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF
THE CA COASTLINE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
ACROSS NM TODAY WHILE WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
170KT SPEED MAX. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON
OVER NORTHEAST NM WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW FORCING MAX TEMPS 15 TO 25F
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL START HOWLING
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERNIGHT.
A COMPLEX, MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT PERIOD WILL UNFOLD TUESDAY AS THE
540DM H5 PACIFIC LOW FILLS AND EJECTS AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO NM. HIGH WINDS MAY BEGIN BEFORE SUNRISE IN
RUIDOSO AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO START EARLIER THAN THE
CURRENT WATCH PERIOD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NM, CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH TO
DEVELOP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS MORNING WHILE OTHER WIND
ADVISORIES ARE ADDED TO SURROUNDING AREAS. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM AS
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGES THRU THE STATE. MODEL TRENDS ARE STILL
HINTING AT A FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN/SNOW
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF WINTER IMPACTS ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE AND
THE NORTHERN MTS. OROGRAPHICS WILL BE ABLE TO ENHANCE A BURST OF
HEAVY SNOW ON WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MTS. THE COMBO
OF HIGH WINDS, SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW MAY ACTUALLY LEAD TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT WINTER IMPACTS COMPARED TO THE WIND. AS SUCH, A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS MTS AND
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN ZONES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS WAS CONVERTED TO A WINTER STORM WATCH. SNOWFALL TOTALS
MAY ONLY REACH 2 TO 6" BUT IMPACTS IN A 12-HR WINDOW MAY PRODUCE
MORE ISSUES WITH TRAVEL AND LOW VISIBILITY COMPARED TO THE WIND.
THERE WILL BE FURTHER DEBATE ON WINTER WX ADVISORIES VS. WIND
ADVISORIES FOR OTHER AREAS ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE FALLING BEHIND THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WITH
UNPLEASANT WIND CHILLS BY THE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
A BREAK IN THE WIND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT PERHAPS HIGH
PEAKS) WHILE SNOW ENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A GAP IN THE HAZARD WINDOW BEFORE ANOTHER INTENSE SHORTWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBS
STILL SHOW WIDESPREAD 60-90% CHANCE OF PEAK WIND GUSTS >50 MPH WITH
AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SHOWING HIGH PROBS FOR >60 MPH.
ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW WILL ENTER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM ALONG A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A FEW MORE INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WEST-
FACING SLOPES. THE TIMING OF THE SECOND PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
INTENSE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT MAY ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF WIND VS. WINTER WX
HAZARDS THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER WEDNESDAY
AND EVEN COLDER ON THURSDAY.
THE LAST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING EVEN
DEEPER AND WETTER FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A COLD
AND WET CLOSED LOW PASSING THRU SOUTHERN NM WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
OVER NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO HAVE
MORE STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
NM. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM BUT THERE IS
ALREADY A LOT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THRU THURSDAY. FOLKS PLANNING
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERAL PERIODS
OF HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS, BLOWING DUST, SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING
FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE. WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 35KT WILL BE COMMON OVER WESTERN AND EASTERN NM BETWEEN 1PM AND
8PM. WINDS WILL DECREASE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH A
PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN STRENGTHEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG LLWS DEVELOPING IN ALL AREAS. THE FIRST
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN NM AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
...A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL UNFOLD THIS
WEEK OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER NORTHEAST NM. MAX TEMPS WILL BE 15
TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH MIN RH FALLING TO NEAR 15%. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TODAY.
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TUESDAY WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR EASTERN NM. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON. MIN RH WILL
BE BORDERLINE CRITICAL IN MANY AREAS HOWEVER ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP
WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY IN RECEPTIVE FUELS. THERE WILL BE SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
ANOTHER DAY OF STRONG WEST WINDS IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN LOWER
MIN RH VALUES OVER EASTERN NM. ANOTHER SET OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR EASTERN NM DURING THIS PERIOD. YET ANOTHER
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY
ELEVATED ALL NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE STRONG WINDS SPREAD TO
MORE OF EASTERN NM AGAIN THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES LOOK A LITTLE MORE
MARGINAL AGAIN BUT RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS EXPECTED. BY FRIDAY, A MORE WELL-DEFINED
WINTER STORM MAY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLDER AIR, MORE
WIND, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER A LARGER AREA OF NORTHERN,
CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 37 49 31 / 5 70 80 30
DULCE........................... 61 30 45 24 / 5 60 100 70
CUBA............................ 58 33 46 24 / 0 20 90 20
GALLUP.......................... 61 32 44 26 / 0 50 80 5
EL MORRO........................ 61 33 42 22 / 0 20 80 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 35 48 23 / 0 10 80 0
QUEMADO......................... 62 36 46 24 / 0 10 80 0
MAGDALENA....................... 66 41 53 28 / 0 5 50 0
DATIL........................... 63 36 46 24 / 0 5 60 0
RESERVE......................... 64 36 50 25 / 0 30 80 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 40 54 28 / 0 40 80 0
CHAMA........................... 54 27 38 20 / 5 50 90 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 37 45 26 / 0 10 80 20
PECOS........................... 61 36 46 23 / 0 5 80 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 33 41 23 / 0 10 80 30
RED RIVER....................... 49 27 33 18 / 0 10 90 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 30 41 18 / 0 10 80 30
TAOS............................ 61 35 47 23 / 0 10 70 20
MORA............................ 65 37 47 22 / 0 5 60 10
ESPANOLA........................ 65 39 54 26 / 0 10 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 59 37 47 25 / 0 10 80 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 38 51 25 / 0 10 60 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 42 55 30 / 0 5 60 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 43 57 30 / 0 5 50 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 69 43 59 30 / 0 5 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 42 57 29 / 0 5 50 0
BELEN........................... 70 43 61 29 / 0 5 40 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 42 58 29 / 0 5 60 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 69 43 59 29 / 0 5 40 0
CORRALES........................ 68 42 59 29 / 0 5 50 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 43 59 29 / 0 5 40 0
PLACITAS........................ 64 42 53 29 / 0 10 70 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 41 57 29 / 0 5 50 0
SOCORRO......................... 73 45 64 29 / 0 5 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 39 49 27 / 0 10 80 5
TIJERAS......................... 61 40 51 28 / 0 5 80 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 40 52 25 / 0 5 60 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 39 54 23 / 0 5 40 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 39 49 25 / 0 0 30 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 41 55 26 / 0 0 40 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 65 41 56 27 / 0 0 30 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 46 59 31 / 0 0 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 64 42 51 31 / 0 0 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 39 54 26 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 68 37 54 25 / 0 0 30 5
SPRINGER........................ 72 41 58 27 / 0 0 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 41 52 25 / 0 0 30 0
CLAYTON......................... 74 48 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 71 44 60 27 / 0 0 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 78 50 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 49 63 32 / 0 0 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 52 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 76 49 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 78 50 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 75 48 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 79 46 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 77 49 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 47 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ212-215-223-226>240.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
126.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ210.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ213-214.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ123.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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