302
FXUS65 KABQ 080513 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1013 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1010 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY FUELS
WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY, MONDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-40 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN WET
ROADS, A RISK OF HYDROPLANING, AND SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, IMPACTING NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. WITH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA CA COAST GRADUALLY
INDUCING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SUNDAY NEAR 1991-2020 AVERAGES TO 14
DEGREES ABOVE THEM, AND AROUND 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD REACHING AROUND 1003 MB
SUNDAY, AND AROUND 1000 MB ON MONDAY. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IN
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH, LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM RED RIVER TO CLINES CORNERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND FROM
25-35 MPH ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LIGHTER. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS, HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS, AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THE
PROBABILITY OF WETTING PRECIP SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS I-40, AND
ALSO TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BECAUSE AN INCREASING NUMBER OF
MODELS HAVE BEGUN DEPICTING THE UPPER LOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH
AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF NM. THIS
TRACK WOULD BRING GREATER DYNAMIC FORCING OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
SO OUR UPDATED QPF FORECAST NOW DEPICTS RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND
0.05-0.25" ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL MAY
BRIEFLY DROP AS LOW AS 7,500 FEET MONDAY NIGHT, THEN CLIMB ABOVE
10,000 FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO NET SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND FOCUS ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM CROSSES, WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY PEAKING BETWEEN 25-40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER TUESDAY AREAWIDE, THEN CONTINUED COOLING IS FORECAST
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY.
A WARMING TREND THAT BEGINS OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY WILL
SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY,
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP CLIMBING ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 7 TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES
THURSDAY, THEN AROUND 12 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK,
WHILE A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS, PRODUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BOTH DAYS. VERY LOW HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE EAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
BREEZES WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD. ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE LEE (EAST) OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL DEVELOP AND LEAD TO STRONGER WINDS,
PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO
WHERE GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 25 TO 35 KT. ELSEWHERE,
BREEZES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER ON SUNDAY WHILE ONCE AGAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL RETURN GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES AND AN INCREASING RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS DEPICT GREATER
COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS SUNDAY THAN
MONDAY, DUE TO WEAKER FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY UNDER THE INDUCED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (MENTIONED ABOVE). HOWEVER, THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM, AND ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING NEAR AND ABOVE 10,000 FEET SHOULD ENABLE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP ANYWAY ON MONDAY. WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, WE WILL UPGRADE SUNDAY'S FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS, AND ALSO ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE
LATEST WIND SPEED FORECAST CAME OUT A LITTLE TOO BORDERLINE TO
ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SO, WE WILL
LET THE NIGHT SHIFT RE-EVALUATE WIND SPEEDS BASED ON UPDATED
MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING IF NEEDED. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE ALSO ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
MONDAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AFTER TUESDAY
PRECIPITATION EVENT, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE HUMIDITIES PLUMMET WITH AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND POTENTIALLY FARTHER WEST
ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 25 60 28 67 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 17 57 21 64 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 23 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 17 63 22 68 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 20 60 25 65 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 18 64 23 69 / 0 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 22 63 27 67 / 0 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 30 63 37 68 / 0 0 0 20
DATIL........................... 25 61 30 65 / 0 5 0 20
RESERVE......................... 24 68 28 70 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 29 73 33 75 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 18 52 23 57 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 27 60 33 66 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 16 49 26 54 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 53 22 58 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 16 60 23 65 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 24 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 23 66 28 72 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 28 61 32 66 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 64 29 70 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 65 41 71 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 67 40 73 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 69 31 75 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 67 36 73 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 28 69 32 75 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 29 68 34 73 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 26 69 30 75 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 30 68 33 74 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 28 68 31 74 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 31 63 37 70 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 31 67 36 73 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 33 71 40 77 / 0 0 0 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 31 61 37 67 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 62 33 68 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 65 23 70 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 61 32 66 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 27 64 34 69 / 0 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 68 42 72 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 29 63 37 67 / 0 5 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 19 63 27 70 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 18 67 25 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 68 26 74 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 64 34 70 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 31 71 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 70 34 75 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 28 76 38 82 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 72 37 77 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 77 41 83 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 34 75 42 82 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 31 76 41 82 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 74 36 81 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 35 74 41 82 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 33 72 40 78 / 0 5 0 10
ELK............................. 30 69 38 75 / 0 5 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ104-123-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ125.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
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