482
FXUS65 KABQ 040715
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1215 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
- OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
BE IN STORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
A REX BLOCK HAS SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVER NORTHERN CA AND THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THIS PATTERN HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER THE
REGION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NM.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE CO BORDER NEAR
RATON PASS, BUT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING WITH
LITTLE-TO-NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WINDS
ALOFT WILL RELAX AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL TREND UP TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE REX BLOCK BREAKS-DOWN AND A WEAKENING UPPER HIGH
MOVES EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NM. THE RESULT WILL BE
LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING THAT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND PACIFIC
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF A MEANDERING PACIFIC LOW, WHICH IS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CURRENT REX BLOCK. FORCING WILL BE WEAK AT BEST THROUGH SUNDAY,
SO THE ADDED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RESULT ONLY IN ADDED CLOUD
COVER AS THE PACIFIC LOW WOBBLES AROUND NORTHERN MX AND THE BAJA
PENINSULA. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE PACIFIC
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER NORTHERN MX EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POLAR JET TAKES A DIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST, SIGNALING A
POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WINDY, COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BE MINIMAL WITH JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS AS IT PASSES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM MST WED FEB 4 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. VENT RATES WILL TREND DOWN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND BECOME MOSTLY POOR BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ROCKIES AND NM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE. A PACIFIC LOW WILL
BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND VERY LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 25 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 18 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 22 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 16 60 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 19 58 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 17 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 21 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 27 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 22 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 62 21 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 67 25 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 18 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 29 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 23 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 20 53 27 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 16 50 20 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 6 53 8 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 48 17 56 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 21 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 22 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 26 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 23 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 33 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 25 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 28 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 57 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 28 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 23 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 27 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 24 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 29 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 29 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 27 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 28 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 24 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 17 59 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 24 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 24 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 18 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 48 18 61 24 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 17 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 22 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 27 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 49 23 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 25 68 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 27 65 28 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 25 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 54 27 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 25 66 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 25 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 26 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 27 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 25 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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