973
FXUS65 KABQ 232330
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD DUE TO
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THREATENING LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW THAT CAUSED THE SEVERE FLASH FLOODING
IN GALLUP AND ZUNI TUESDAY IS NOW OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
ROTATING AROUND THE 597 TO 598 DAM 500 MB UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR MIDLAND, TX. A MID LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY BASED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS RESULTED IN THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GILA MOUNTAINS
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WITH PWATS
AROUND RECORD VALUES (1.27 INCHES BASED ON THE 18Z KABQ SOUNDING)
AND RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES AN HOUR, ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS POTENTIALLY ALREADY THE
CASE NEAR THE ALAMO CHAPTER OF THE NAVAJO NATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND
NORTHEAST NM THROUGH MID THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
COULD LINGER THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
COLORADO EXITS EAST INTO KANSAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE BRINGS A MOIST BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHEAST NM ALONG WITH THE 598 TO 599 DAM 500 MB UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION MOVING WEST TO OVER THE GILA MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM
FRIDAY. WITH THIS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS (WHERE
NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE BOUNDARY PRESENT) ALONG
WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM. ONCE AGAIN WITH 90TH TO NEAR RECORD PWATS
AROUND 1 TO 1.6 INCHES, ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER, THE MUCH DRIER SOILS ACROSS NORTHEAST SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE RISK ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE. OUTSIDE OF THE
STORMS, THE OTHER MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE HEAT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S AND MID 100S ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING
ROSWELL. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY
PLAINS FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM FRIDAY. STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM LOOKS
TO COALESCE INTO A PSEUDO MCS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT. LINGERING CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
THE POTENTIAL MCS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM FRIDAY
EVENING LOOKS TO RESULT IN A LEFTOVER MCV OVER SOUTHEAST NM SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE 599 TO 600 DAM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS MCV COMBINED WITH PWATS AROUND 1.1 TO
1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS, AND MUCH OF WESTERN NM FROM GALLUP DOWN TO THE GILA
MOUNTAINS. MORNING CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCV COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE RUIDOSO AREA, SO THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING. THE MCV MOVES INTO EASTERN AZ SUNDAY
KEEPING A HIGHER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL
CONTINUE SEEING HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 DUE TO BEING UNDER THE 597 TO 598 DAM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM.
NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS TO HOT WITH 90S TO MID 100S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM AND DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FAVORING
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO RECYCLED MOISTURE (PWATS
AROUND 1 INCH) ROTATING AROUND THE 595 TO 598 DAM UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NM AND THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE PIVOTING WEST TO OVER THE HEART OF THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TYPICAL
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 20-25KTS. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FAVORING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY, WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY, AND WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
HIGHEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE BURN SCARS AROUND
RUIDOSO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 97 67 97 / 0 0 10 0
DULCE........................... 51 91 53 91 / 10 20 20 50
CUBA............................ 59 90 61 88 / 10 10 10 40
GALLUP.......................... 59 93 60 92 / 10 20 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 59 88 60 87 / 10 50 10 70
GRANTS.......................... 60 92 62 90 / 20 30 10 40
QUEMADO......................... 60 90 61 88 / 20 30 20 70
MAGDALENA....................... 67 91 68 88 / 20 50 20 60
DATIL........................... 62 88 63 85 / 20 40 20 80
RESERVE......................... 59 94 61 91 / 10 40 20 80
GLENWOOD........................ 64 96 65 96 / 5 20 20 70
CHAMA........................... 51 82 53 82 / 10 60 20 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 87 67 89 / 10 40 30 50
PECOS........................... 60 87 60 86 / 10 60 30 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 84 59 85 / 30 60 20 60
RED RIVER....................... 50 75 51 75 / 30 70 20 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 48 80 48 81 / 10 80 30 70
TAOS............................ 56 89 57 89 / 20 40 20 60
MORA............................ 57 84 57 84 / 10 70 40 70
ESPANOLA........................ 64 94 66 93 / 10 30 20 40
SANTA FE........................ 65 88 66 88 / 10 30 20 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 93 64 92 / 10 20 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 97 71 93 / 20 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 97 68 95 / 20 5 40 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 99 68 97 / 20 5 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 98 71 95 / 20 5 30 40
BELEN........................... 67 100 68 97 / 20 5 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 69 99 70 97 / 20 10 30 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 99 66 97 / 20 5 40 30
CORRALES........................ 69 98 70 96 / 20 0 30 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 100 68 97 / 20 5 30 30
PLACITAS........................ 69 96 70 94 / 20 10 30 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 98 70 95 / 20 0 30 40
SOCORRO......................... 73 101 74 100 / 10 20 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 91 64 89 / 10 20 30 70
TIJERAS......................... 65 94 64 90 / 10 20 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 94 61 90 / 10 20 40 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 95 59 91 / 5 20 40 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 89 60 87 / 5 30 40 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 92 61 88 / 10 20 40 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 93 63 88 / 0 20 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 95 69 90 / 0 20 30 50
RUIDOSO......................... 64 86 65 81 / 5 30 30 70
CAPULIN......................... 58 89 58 89 / 30 60 40 30
RATON........................... 58 93 57 93 / 20 70 30 30
SPRINGER........................ 60 95 59 96 / 20 70 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 89 60 88 / 5 70 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 66 96 66 98 / 50 20 30 10
ROY............................. 64 92 63 93 / 20 60 40 30
CONCHAS......................... 70 102 68 100 / 20 30 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 99 66 95 / 10 40 50 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 103 70 100 / 10 20 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 72 100 69 96 / 0 30 40 20
PORTALES........................ 74 101 70 97 / 0 30 50 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 102 70 97 / 5 30 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 75 106 74 101 / 0 10 30 10
PICACHO......................... 69 98 69 93 / 0 30 30 30
ELK............................. 65 94 66 90 / 0 30 20 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ234.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ238.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11
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