796
FXUS65 KABQ 022100
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2020
SYNOPSIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO. A MIX OF DRY AND WET
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE WEST, WHILE STORMS WITH A GREATER
WETTING FOOTPRINT WILL IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO MAY BE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
STORM COVERAGE WILL TAPER OFF INTO TUESDAY AS DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING
WARMER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER FLOW IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVER NM TODAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EVOLVES WESTWARD INTO WEST TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS IMPROVING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM WHILE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST AZ. THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM
MOSTLY DRY TO WETTER STORMS AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE
REGION. STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FROM ANY DIRECT HITS
THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY BULLISH CONTINUING ISOLD SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN NM THRU TONIGHT WITH MILD TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONSOLIDATE WESTWARD INTO A 593DM
HIGH CENTER OVER SOUTHERN NM ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z NAM/GFS INDICATE A
35-45 KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTING THRU THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE
UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NM WHERE PW VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.5". A
LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXITING EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM ON
FRIDAY EVENING WILL DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND SUBSEQUENT GAP WINDS
INTO THE RGV THRU FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER TX WILL RETROGRADE WEST INTO THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE WEEKEND, ENHANCING NW FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWING
FOR DAILY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN AROUND NORTHWEST NM IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH, ALLOWING FOR A MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WESTWARD OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
FURTHER EAST, WHERE MOISTURE IS READILY AVAILABLE, STORMS WILL HAVE A
WETTER FOOTPRINT. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS MODEST, STRONGER STORMS
MAY CONTAIN HAIL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NE WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, CREATING A SIMILAR MOISTURE PATTERN SUNDAY. IF THIS FEEDBACK
LOOP CAN BE MAINTAINED, MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS ON MONDAY.
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM WILL
NOT EJECT EAST AND INSTEAD BE NESTLED IN PLACE BY THE BUILDING OF A
STRONG UPPER RIDGE BY MIDWEEK. PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK BUT LACK RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. FURTHER INTO THE
WEEK, 00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ENCROACHING ON AN IMPRESSIVE 600 DM. THE 12Z RUN
HOWEVER LOOKS LESS BULLISH WITH THE HIGH'S INTENSITY AND EVEN
SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW ENTERING THE GAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE ARE THEREFORE LOWERING
CONFIDENCE WHETHER THE MONSOON TYPE PATTERN WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE DRIER SYNOPTIC SETUP.
GUYER/12
FIRE WEATHER
THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ. STORMS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WETTER EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN EVOLVE MORE TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER
AIR OVER AZ TO FILTER BACK INTO THAT AREA. MEANWHILE, ISOLD STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OVER NM BY MID WEEK AND TREND TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER HIGH DETERIORATES BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
GUYER
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE SHIFTING NORTH INTO NM TODAY WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN. ANY DIRECT HITS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT WITH BRIEF RAIN. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 15 KT. THE FOCUS FOR MORE IMPACTFUL SHRA/TSRA
WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NM THIS EVENING WHERE BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL. MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL TAPER
OFF THRU SUNRISE FOR MOST AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 58 94 60 94 / 5 10 5 10
DULCE........................... 47 89 49 89 / 5 30 20 20
CUBA............................ 55 88 55 88 / 10 30 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 52 90 54 91 / 10 20 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 49 85 51 86 / 20 20 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 53 89 53 90 / 10 20 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 53 85 54 87 / 20 20 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 60 88 62 89 / 20 30 20 30
DATIL........................... 54 85 56 85 / 20 30 10 30
RESERVE......................... 50 92 51 93 / 20 20 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 59 96 60 97 / 10 10 5 20
CHAMA........................... 47 82 48 83 / 5 40 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 85 61 84 / 10 40 20 30
PECOS........................... 59 83 59 85 / 20 50 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 81 54 83 / 10 50 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 43 74 45 74 / 20 60 30 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 75 41 77 / 20 60 30 60
TAOS............................ 51 86 51 86 / 10 40 30 40
MORA............................ 53 81 53 82 / 20 60 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 60 90 60 91 / 10 30 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 61 86 61 87 / 20 40 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 90 58 90 / 20 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 91 67 93 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 93 68 94 / 10 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 96 65 96 / 10 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 65 94 66 96 / 10 20 20 10
BELEN........................... 63 96 64 97 / 10 20 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 63 95 63 96 / 20 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 95 62 96 / 10 20 20 10
CORRALES........................ 62 95 62 96 / 10 20 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 60 95 61 96 / 10 20 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 65 91 65 91 / 20 30 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 94 65 95 / 10 20 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 97 66 98 / 20 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 87 61 88 / 20 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 63 90 61 91 / 20 20 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 88 58 90 / 20 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 89 51 92 / 20 30 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 84 56 86 / 30 40 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 87 59 90 / 20 30 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 87 59 89 / 20 30 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 92 65 92 / 20 30 20 30
RUIDOSO......................... 60 83 58 83 / 20 50 20 50
CAPULIN......................... 57 84 56 82 / 20 50 40 60
RATON........................... 54 87 55 86 / 20 40 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 55 87 56 87 / 20 50 30 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 84 54 85 / 20 50 30 50
CLAYTON......................... 62 92 61 89 / 20 50 40 40
ROY............................. 61 87 61 86 / 30 50 40 40
CONCHAS......................... 67 96 65 95 / 20 40 40 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 93 65 93 / 20 40 30 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 98 67 97 / 20 30 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 65 94 65 94 / 30 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 66 95 66 95 / 30 20 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 95 68 96 / 20 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 71 100 71 99 / 30 30 10 20
PICACHO......................... 64 91 64 91 / 30 50 20 40
ELK............................. 61 86 61 89 / 30 50 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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