361
FXUS65 KABQ 111709 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1109 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
- NOTABLY COLDER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TODAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND
DRY VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTABLY COLDER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING TO CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BARRELS SOUTH DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR STRONG
WINDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH 18Z, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE TX BORDER WHERE GUSTS TO BETWEEN
50-55MPH ARE LIKELY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NM PER AREA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, BUT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTH RAPIDLY AND ARRIVE IN ROSWELL AROUND SUNRISE. NOTABLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST BELOW AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE. WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT
DAYTIME MIXING AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT
DAYTIME MIXING IS STILL FORECAST TO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY DUE TO
MUCH WEAKER LEE SIDE TROUGHING. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE FURTHER ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONGER JET STREAM MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES, RESULTING IN DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY, IN PART DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS,
AND GENERALLY BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AS THE JET STREAM
EJECTS SOUTHEAST OUT OVER THE CENTRAL US PLAINS, A WEST COAST
RIDGE AND EASTERN US TROUGHING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP, ALLOWING A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM ON
SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM,
WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN REMAIN WARM WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE WEST COAST RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND TRANSITION SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
DESERT SW TOWARD NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SOAR
TO BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRESSURE HEIGHTS BY MID WEEK. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE TO 590-592DAM OVER NM FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAY IN MARCH IS THE THEME. THE KABQ ALL TIME HIGH
FOR MARCH IS 85 DEGREES, HIT ON 3/19 IN 1907 AND AGAIN ON 3/26 IN
1971. DONT' BE SURPRISED IF WE CHALLENGE THAT RECORD AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST NM FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR CIGS NEAR THE CO BORDER ACROSS NE NM WILL
SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN. MEANWHILE, GUSTY WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 40 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS, THOUGH WINDS
WILL DECREASE A LITTLE SOONER ACROSS EASTERN NM THAN ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND DAYTIME
MIXING OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BRING BRISK CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LEE
SIDE TROUGHING AND DAYTIME MIXING OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING
THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM FOR
THURSDAY. WINDS DECREASE SOME FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. STRONGER LEE
SIDE TROUGHING AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
ENABLE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING AND MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THAT WILL EXPAND WEST TO INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AS ERCS CONTINUE TO TREND UP. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COOL DOWN EASTERN NM SUN/MON, BUT THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AS VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH RISING ERCS. WINDS
WILL RELAX SOME GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION, BUT VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR DAILY RECORDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 28 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 22 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 59 28 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 22 69 24 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 61 28 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 64 23 70 25 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 62 28 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 35 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 30 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 69 28 71 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 74 32 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 56 23 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 34 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 27 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 48 23 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 17 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 61 23 64 26 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 58 26 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 69 30 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 31 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 28 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 38 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 72 34 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 31 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 34 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 72 30 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 71 35 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 72 30 74 34 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 36 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 34 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 63 35 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 31 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 23 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 31 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 31 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 37 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 62 33 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 47 24 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 54 20 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 24 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 25 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 29 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 27 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 28 79 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 29 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 30 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 29 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 28 73 41 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 30 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 32 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 67 29 73 39 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR NMZ230-234>236.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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