463
FXUS65 KABQ 241952
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1252 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
- A WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD TRAVEL
IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS, TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE ONGOING WINTER PRECIP
EVENT WERE TO DECREASE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AND
TO INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40; MOST
NOTABLY SOCORRO COUNTY, WHERE 1-2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS AND
ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS.
THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A SERIES OF TWO WILL FINISH
PASSING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY, THEN EXIT EASTWARD
OVER TX TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE DEPTH OF THE SUPERCOOLED DROPLET LAYER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS
DEEPER THAN MODELS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, AND THERE
WAS LESS SEEDING FROM HIGHER LEVEL FROZEN PRECIP, RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ICE ACCUMULATION FROM RUIDOSO AND (PROBABLY)
DUNKEN EASTWARD TO ROSWELL THAN EXPECTED. THE MODEL THAT SEEMED
TO HANDLE THE LOCATION OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION THE BEST
THIS MORNING WAS THE HREF. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOLLOWED THE
HREF'S LEAD IN DRAWING ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MANZANO MOUNTAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND EASTWARD ACROSS CHAVES
COUNTY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE
FROM RUIDOSO TO DUNKEN, WHERE WE HAVE LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF ANOTHER 0.05" OR SO OF ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
AROUND MOUNTAINAIR AND ROSWELL. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TODAY A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES, BUT ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ABOUT 7000 FEET; AND
ESPECIALLY THE SANTA FE AREA WHERE A FRIGID SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING THIS THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
WHEN THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO TX THIS
EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AS THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OF UP TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ARE FORECAST IN THE MOUNTAINS, OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS, AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH OF I-40 OVER SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL GENERALLY ACCUMULATE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES,
WHILE THE HIGHEST PEAKS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN APPROACH
10 INCHES; EXCEPT FOR UP TO 20 ADDITIONAL INCHES ON SIERRA BLANCA
PEAK. THE SNOW ON TOP OF THE ICE WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FOR DAYS TO COME EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER TX DURING
THE MORNING SUNDAY ENABLING PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AND THE SUN TO COME OUT BY AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN ALBUQUERQUE AND SOCORRO UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING, WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING ONE-TWO PUNCH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL LINGER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER EASTERN
AREAS WHILE WARMING SOME ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER EASTERN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, BUT SOUTH OF I-40 THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WHILE THE AIR IS COOLED BY SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WIND CHILL READINGS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY
WARRANT SOME COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CLIPS
NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN, THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
OF COOLING BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINTRY WEATHER HAS A WIDESPREAD GRIP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO WITH PREVALENT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS COMMONLY
DOWN TO 400-800 FT AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/2 MILE). THESE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME BREAKS IN SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING VISIBILITY TO TEMPORARILY RISE AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, A MORE SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH MORE PERSISTENT
LIFR AND LOCALIZED VLIFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE BELOW SEVERAL
AIRPORTS' MINIMUM OPERATING THRESHOLDS. IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION (6,500 TO 7,500 FT) SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY REDEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT ARRIVES. THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD MORE SNOW INTO WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
0500UTC (10 PM MST) WITH IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY, A CLEARING
TREND WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOST AIRPORTS
IMPROVE TO VFR STATUS BY LATE MORNING TO THE MID AFTERNOON. LOTS
OF MOUNTAIN PEAK OBSCURATIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AFTER WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ALLOW VENT RATES TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS THEN
FORECAST DURING THE WORK WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES OVER THE LUBBOCK AREA, AND A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE CO ROCKIES. THIS COULD ENABLE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT THERE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 20 39 14 38 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 8 37 -2 38 / 30 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 11 33 5 34 / 40 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 11 38 4 41 / 50 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 13 34 9 39 / 60 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 12 39 7 42 / 60 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 13 31 9 38 / 90 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 20 36 17 37 / 90 30 0 0
DATIL........................... 18 32 13 37 / 90 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 17 44 11 49 / 90 20 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 22 51 15 53 / 90 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 8 29 -2 32 / 40 20 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 17 30 11 32 / 60 20 5 0
PECOS........................... 9 29 6 35 / 70 30 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 12 29 4 32 / 50 20 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 5 21 0 26 / 60 30 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 1 24 -6 32 / 70 30 30 0
TAOS............................ 9 31 -2 34 / 50 20 20 0
MORA............................ 8 30 6 42 / 70 20 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 15 37 6 38 / 60 20 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 14 29 10 31 / 70 30 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 12 31 7 31 / 70 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 21 37 19 38 / 80 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 20 39 19 40 / 70 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 20 42 17 43 / 70 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 21 41 19 40 / 60 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 19 40 11 40 / 90 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 20 39 15 39 / 70 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 17 41 14 41 / 80 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 20 41 16 41 / 60 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 41 14 41 / 80 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 20 34 16 35 / 80 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 21 40 17 40 / 60 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 22 42 16 42 / 90 30 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 13 30 12 32 / 80 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 15 31 14 33 / 80 30 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 12 31 8 34 / 80 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 8 32 1 35 / 80 30 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 6 26 4 30 / 80 40 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 9 31 9 34 / 90 40 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 7 30 6 33 / 90 40 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 13 32 10 34 / 100 70 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 8 28 11 35 / 100 80 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 3 26 -2 38 / 50 5 40 0
RATON........................... 4 28 -2 40 / 50 10 40 0
SPRINGER........................ 6 29 -2 43 / 40 5 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 7 29 2 40 / 60 10 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 6 26 3 39 / 60 0 50 0
ROY............................. 6 26 -1 35 / 70 5 30 0
CONCHAS......................... 7 30 3 38 / 80 20 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 6 26 1 34 / 90 30 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 5 29 1 35 / 90 20 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 6 24 0 29 / 90 40 10 0
PORTALES........................ 6 25 -3 29 / 100 40 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 7 26 -2 29 / 90 40 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 12 24 1 27 / 100 50 0 0
PICACHO......................... 9 28 5 37 / 100 60 0 0
ELK............................. 4 32 6 42 / 100 70 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ202>204-206-
208-227-228-230-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ210>218-
221>224-229-232>234-237.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ207-219-225-
241.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NMZ226-235-236-
238>240.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR NMZ220.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page