629
FXUS65 KABQ 261137 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 533 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND
MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES PUSH ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE CANYON GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL TREK
EASTWARD TODAY, MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT
IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE A STRONG BREEZE AND HIGH FIRE DANGER
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NM. MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
THE WAKE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT THE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL KEEP HIGHS CLOSE TO YESTERDAY'S
RECORD SHATTERING VALUES. WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN ROSWELL WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES UP NEAR THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK IN WHAT COULD BE THE
EARLIEST 100-DEGREE DAY ON RECORD BY NEARLY A MONTH.
A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG JET STREAK OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS WILL RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW,
REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEW MEXICO BY THE EARLY EVENING.
GIVEN THE VERY LOW SOIL MOISTURE, DUST IS LIKELY TO GET KICKED UP
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR FAR EASTERN NM ALONG THE TX BORDER. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, PUSHING THROUGH THE
GAPS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
ALBUQUERQUE, HOWEVER THE MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT DO MUCH
TO OPPOSE THE STRONG PRESSURE AND DENSITY GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE.
FOR THIS REASON, A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING BELOW
GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INCLUDING TIJERAS CANYON.
COOLER, MORE MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY, HELPING TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. GAP WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN BRIEFLY FRIDAY EVENING, BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRENDING
WEAKER FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WASHES OUT. LOW TEMPS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH A FREEZE LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS WHERE BLOOMING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING DUE TO THE RECORD WARMTH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. 700MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 10 TO 15C AND SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW
20% INDICATES THAT WETTING RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY, WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND. LIS SLIGHTLY
BELOW 0C SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY DENSE CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT SFC HEATING AND
THEREFORE INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO RESTRICT THE COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING.
PWATS WILL TREND MUCH HIGHER (UP TO 300% ABOVE NORMAL), FAVORING
SLIGHTLY WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
TO MID-NEXT WEEK. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTH REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ISOLATED GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS NEAR GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS THAT WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. STRONGER JET FORCING LATER IN THE
WEEK COULD BRING MORE APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH IN THIS INCREASINGLY PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE ENS AND GEPS BOTH SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE NEXT WEEK, FAVORING COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH
LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND CONTINUED BOUTS OF WIND WITH JET
STREAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS AROUND 18Z, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING,
PUSHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AROUND 09Z,
CREATING GUSTY GAP WINDS AT BOTH KABQ AND KSAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
WESTERLY WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER TODAY, CREATING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
AND ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WESTWARD. RECORD WARMTH COMBINED WITH HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 4%
AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER IN A CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
FURTHERMORE, THE EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY HAVE
INCREASED ERCS TO RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE IN MANY AREAS, WITH
FUELS BEHAVING MORE LIKE THEY TYPICALLY WOULD IN LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE.
A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING,
RUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT
HIGHER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS WILL BE USHERED IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED
VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING IS A CONCERN GIVEN THAT SFC HUMIDITIES WILL
LIKELY BE BELOW 25% AND SINCE FUELS ARE VERY DRY. SLIGHTLY WETTER
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SAME AREAS MONDAY, BUT
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. WINDS TREND
STRONGER MID-NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
NORTHERN AREAS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT THU MAR 26 2026
NUMEROUS RECORD HIGHS WERE BROKEN, IF NOT SHATTERED, AROUND THE AREA
YESTERDAY (MARCH 25). ALBUQUERQUE (90F), CLAYTON (90F), AND ROSWELL
(98F) ALL BROKE RECORD HIGHS BY AT LEAST 5F. MANY AREAS ARE FORECAST
TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS AGAIN TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES.
ACCORDING TO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM, ROSWELL HAS A 82%
CHANCE TO REACH 100F TODAY. THIS WOULD BE THE EARLIEST 100-DEGREE
DAY EVER BY NEARLY A MONTH (APRIL 22). FOR REFERENCE, THE AVERAGE
FIRST 100-DEGREE DAY IN ROSWELL IS JUNE 8TH. ALBUQUERQUE WILL FLIRT
WITH THE 90-DEGREE MARK AGAIN TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH
RECORD HEAT SINCE TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FRIDAY BEHIND A POTENT COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER, RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 81 45 79 43 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 78 33 73 29 / 0 0 10 5
CUBA............................ 77 42 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 77 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 75 41 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 80 37 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 77 40 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 46 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 77 43 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 85 37 80 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 89 42 85 39 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 72 36 66 27 / 0 0 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 78 48 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 79 40 57 28 / 0 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 76 40 61 28 / 0 0 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 70 29 48 22 / 0 0 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 25 49 21 / 0 0 20 5
TAOS............................ 80 35 63 26 / 0 0 10 0
MORA............................ 80 37 52 25 / 0 0 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 86 42 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 80 46 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 83 42 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 51 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 48 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 90 47 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 88 50 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 90 42 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 88 48 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 41 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 90 48 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 43 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 85 50 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 49 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 93 49 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 45 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 83 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 83 41 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 83 38 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 39 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 83 41 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 83 43 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 48 60 35 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 81 42 52 31 / 0 0 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 83 29 46 28 / 0 5 10 0
RATON........................... 86 34 51 26 / 0 5 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 88 37 53 28 / 0 0 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 38 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 93 36 52 33 / 0 5 5 0
ROY............................. 90 39 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 96 44 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 43 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 42 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 97 43 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 98 43 58 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 43 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 100 50 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 93 44 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 92 41 56 32 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-121>126.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ230-234>236.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ219.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page