911  
FXUS65 KABQ 192330 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
530 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH  
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NM  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY GAP  
WINDS INTO THE KABQ LATER THIS EVENING, STARTING ~02Z AND PERSISTING  
THROUGH THE NIGHT WELL INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KTS.  
BREEZY GUSTS AT KLVS AND KGUP ARE EXPECTED TO CALM AS THE EVENING  
PROGRESSES.  
 
24  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT FRI OCT 19 2018
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN EAST WIND WILL RETURN THIS EVENING WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS  
A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. OTHERWISE, A QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE. A FEW  
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS  
WEEKEND, BUT THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE STATE. SNOW  
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM, GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 10,000  
FEET. MOST AREAS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD 15 TO 25 DEGREES SINCE  
YESTERDAY. THIS IS DESPITE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE  
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKLY PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING. A FEW BREEZES ARE EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF  
THE GAPS, BUT NOTHING AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW DAYS.  
 
WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT ON SATURDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY LITTLE FROM TODAY THANKS TO CONTINUED COOL  
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL  
BE CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALI. MOISTURE THAT IS POOLING  
SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS THE LOW EVER-SO-SLOWLY SHIFTS INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA, BUT THE BETTER PULL  
OF MOISTURE WILL HAPPEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  
 
A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL WILL SHIFT TOWARD NM ON  
MONDAY, INITIALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE STATE. BY MONDAY  
NIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KICK OFF  
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A GREAT  
SHOT AT RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS  
WILL BE A MUCH WARMER SYSTEM THAN THE LAST, SO SNOW LEVELS WILL  
REMAIN QUITE HIGH, GENERALLY AOA 10KFT.  
 
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE FORECAST, THOUGH LIKELY NOT AS NUMEROUS. A FINAL TROUGH MAY SWING  
THROUGH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MUCH DRIER  
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE BY THEN SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
WILL BE MINIMAL.  
 
34  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTH  
CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO  
THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED DAYTIME RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S VERY HIGH  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE LOWERING  
HUMIDITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THIS  
AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL  
PLAINS IS STILL RATHER HIGH AND RANGES FROM 25 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AT  
1 PM MDT. WINDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO  
MODERATE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH IN THE NORTHEAST  
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS SO FAR THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE BACKDOOR  
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, EASTERLY GAP  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA. GAP WINDS IN THE  
ALBUQUERQUE AREA WILL GUST TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH BEGINNING IN THE  
MID EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND  
TERRAIN DRIVEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA  
AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE  
BACKDOOR FRONT, MAINLY THROUGH PASSES AND GAPS. DRIER AIR FILTERING  
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MOST  
OF THE AREA WITH RECOVERY RANGING FROM GOOD ACROSS NORTHERN AND MOST  
OF CENTRAL NM AND EXCELLENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
 
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY, AS SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND A STRONG SURFACE  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM WEST TX INTO EASTERN NM. THIS  
GRADIENT WILL GENERATE AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS NM WITH  
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL  
HIGHLANDS. VENTILATION RATES ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE GENERALLY  
FAIR, WHILE VENTILATION RATES ELSEWHERE WILL BE POOR ON SATURDAY.  
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY SATURDAY WILL FALL SLIGHTLY, BUT MINIMUM  
VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN SUNDAY, LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO  
AND SOUTHWEST TX WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND THE  
EASTERN PLAINS, EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. A JET MAXIMUM  
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTHEAST NM IN THE  
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
SOUTHERN NM ON SUNDAY WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IN THE  
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH  
CENTRAL NM AND UP TO AROUND 0.05 OF AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
THIRD OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST  
OF THE REGION SUNDAY, EXCEPT FAIR IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.  
 
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FROM A DRIER TO WETTER WEATHER  
PATTERN. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON. A  
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA ON  
MONDAY WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THE REST OF THE  
REGION WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT  
RANGE. VENTILATION RATES ON MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY POOR WITH SMALL  
AREAS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE  
FAIR CATEGORY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO  
THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES  
OF WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MAINLY  
ABOVE 10,000 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE POOR  
OVER MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH CLIMATOLOGICALLY  
HIGH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  
 
28  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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