106
FXUS65 KABQ 101921
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL AND A FEW CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTABLY COLDER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MEAGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTHERN NM AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE BEGAN TRENDING LOWER WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN THE PAST 24
HOURS SO WE'LL TAKE WHAT WE CAN GET AT THIS POINT. FAVORED AREAS
WILL STILL BE THE SACRAMENTO MTS WHERE HIGHEST PROBS FOR WETTING
PRECIP (>0.10") EXIST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 800 J/KG WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
ALSO A CONCERN WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION IN MANY AREAS. A SHARP
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WILL SPREAD FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL NM THIS
EVENING AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPPER WAVE. PERSISTENT MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE THRU LATE THIS EVENING FROM THE
RGV WESTWARD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SOUTH INTO
EASTERN NM TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE DECREASED TODAY ON THE COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF WIND ADVISORY GUSTS FOR EASTERN NM (>50 MPH). HOWEVER,
SEVERAL HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IS STILL EXPECTED
ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME BLOWING DUST. THE EVENING CREW WILL GET A
LOOK AT THE 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS AND MAY ADD A COUPLE COUNTIES TO A
WIND ADVISORY, MOST LIKELY QUAY AND CURRY.
COOLER TEMPS ARE IN STORE WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN NM. HIGH TEMPS MAY EVEN BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WESTERN NM WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
READINGS STILL PEAKING IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPS. FOLKS
WITH EARLY SEASON GARDEN PLANTS AND FRUIT TREES ARE URGED TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THURSDAY THRU MONDAY WILL FEATURE SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A +3
STANDARD DEVIATION H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. NORTHWEST
BREEZES WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
WINDS, LEADING TO ELEVATED RISK FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH IN RECEPTIVE
FUELS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND 15 TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SATURDAY. SOME AREAS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM MAY BE AS MUCH AS 40F COLDER IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT,
ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN NM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM THRU THIS EVENING WITH AREAS
OF ICING, MT OBSCURATION, AND HI TURB. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE BRIEF WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOW
VFR CIGS, AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST NM WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT COMMON BTWN
2PM AND 8PM. MEANWHILE, A SHARP NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ALONG A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS OF 25-35KT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THRU LATE
THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THRU
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT LIGHTER WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHWEST NM WHERE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ARE LIKELY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND MARGINALLY LOW
HUMIDITY. ERC VALUES ARE NEAR THE 50TH PERCENTILE IN MOST OF THAT
AREA SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE POSTED AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER FIRE GROWING PATTERN RETURNS THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM UNDER SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW, SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, AND HIGH ERC VALUES. FIRE WEATHER
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 63 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 63 20 65 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 33 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 63 22 69 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 30 66 22 71 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 33 62 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 40 66 36 70 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 36 62 31 67 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 29 67 27 73 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 32 73 30 78 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 26 58 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 62 27 65 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 59 28 62 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 51 18 56 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 21 55 16 58 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 26 63 22 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 32 59 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 70 29 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 63 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 36 66 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 73 33 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 37 73 30 77 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 41 72 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 73 29 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 43 72 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 73 31 76 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 71 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 46 75 37 78 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 37 67 30 69 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 67 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 67 26 69 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 61 28 64 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 66 31 68 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 65 31 68 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 70 37 69 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 62 34 63 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 52 24 68 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 29 59 21 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 61 24 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 59 25 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 35 55 28 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 57 26 72 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 64 30 80 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 62 29 74 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 64 29 80 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 63 31 74 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 41 65 29 74 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 65 30 77 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 71 37 76 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 68 32 76 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 41 68 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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