677
FXUS65 KABQ 281133 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CREATE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDENESDAY.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED ALL THE WAY THROUGH WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND SFC PRESSURE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM TONIGHT. GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER
IN ALL AREAS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CONFINED TO GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WHILE DIMINISHING, WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS FROM DEVELOPING. THAT
BEING SAID, COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY YESTERDAY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST AREAS THIS
MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH
THE NIGHT, BUT WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN THE MORNING HOURS AS WINDS
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO SFC PRESSURE FALLS. WHILE IT
MAY NOT FEEL LIKE IT RIGHT NOW, AN H5 590 MB HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS CHIHUAHUA SO TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLDER, SHALLOW AIRMASS WASHES OUT. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MOST HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED UP
INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NM. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE QUITE DRY, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS. THE
COVERAGE OF BOTH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS NOTABLY TRENDED LOWER OVER
THE PAST DAY OR SO, WITH THE THREAT OF DRY STORMS NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-40. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RECORD
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THREATENED DESPITE THE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, SURGING PWATS TO AS
MUCH AS 300% OF NORMAL IN WESTERN NM. WITH THAT SAID, SFC HUMIDITIES
WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20 TO 30% RANGE SO WETTING RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY. HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ALONG A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THESE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT AS
FAR EAST AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. BACKGROUND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE TRENDING STRONGER MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
WELL SO SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIX DOWN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THIS
COMBINED WITH DCAPE VALUES IN THE 600 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHOWERS WILL DECAY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT POPS LINGER IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET INTENSIFIES. LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FAVOR NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON
TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT TREKS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WETTING RAINFALL IS STILL LOW IN MOST AREAS,
HOWEVER QPF AMOUNTS HAVE NOTABLY TRENDED HIGHER AS THE SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
ANY RAINFALL AT THIS POINT WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN HOW HOT AND DRY
MARCH HAS BEEN THUS FAR.
DRY WEATHER TAKES OVER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET
REMAINS OVERHEAD. TYPICAL SPRING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, WITH WINDS TURNING
AROUND TO THE NORTH IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE ANY PROGRESS WESTWARD
SINCE IT WILL BE FIGHTING STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY DEEPER WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE ENS REMAINING THE DEEPEST
ENSEMBLE MEAN. SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS A BIG QUESTION
MARK, BUT ALL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING A COOLDOWN TO AT LEAST
NORMAL SPRING TEMPERATURES, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CLEAR
AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH. EASTERLY WINDS AT KABQ WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE MORNING
AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. A FEW
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR IN FAR WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS WINDS VEER AROUND
TO THE SOUTH. A LIGHT BREEZE WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS, WITH A
STRONG BREEZE IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITIES TREND LOWER SUNDAY AS WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE WEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE LOW HUMIDITY. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO WESTERN NM ON SUNDAY, FUELING ISOLATED DRY
STORMS AND GUSTY SHOWERS. SFC HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE
SO RAINFALL WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND. ERCS SHOW THAT FUELS
ARE AT RECORD DRYNESS FOR LATE MARCH, INCREASING THE THREAT OF FIRE
STARTS WITH ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. THE THREAT OF DRY STORMS AND
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER ON MONDAY AS COVERAGE EXPANDS EASTWARD
TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS
MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET. WHILE WETTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS OF FAR
NORTHERN NM, LIGHT RAINFALL WOULD STILL BE WELCOMED. TEMPERATURES
DROP MID-WEEK BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. LATE WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TYPICAL GUSTY WEST WINDS, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 75 41 79 48 / 5 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 71 31 75 36 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 37 74 42 / 10 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 75 35 77 40 / 10 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 73 39 74 43 / 10 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 73 36 78 42 / 10 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 75 39 75 44 / 10 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 68 44 76 49 / 0 0 10 10
DATIL........................... 71 40 73 45 / 5 0 10 10
RESERVE......................... 75 37 79 43 / 5 0 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 77 40 84 46 / 5 0 10 20
CHAMA........................... 67 32 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 67 39 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 67 37 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 63 31 65 35 / 0 0 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 29 68 35 / 0 0 5 0
TAOS............................ 70 32 76 35 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 72 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 39 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 41 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 38 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 46 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 45 81 50 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 44 83 49 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 45 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 41 84 47 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 73 44 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 41 83 47 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 73 45 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 42 83 48 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 69 44 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 45 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 74 46 85 51 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 68 41 77 45 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 37 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 71 34 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 40 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 66 41 77 47 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 44 80 51 / 0 0 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 66 45 73 50 / 0 0 10 5
CAPULIN......................... 66 41 77 43 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 72 37 81 40 / 0 0 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 74 37 83 40 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 41 77 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 48 85 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 68 41 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 45 90 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 43 85 49 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 72 46 90 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 42 87 51 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 69 41 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 39 88 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 68 41 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 71 44 83 52 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 72 43 80 50 / 0 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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