089
FXUS65 KABQ 100008 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, PATCHY BLOWING DUST, DRY
LIGHTNING, AND A RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
- DRY AND BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
AN INCREASING RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
A DEEP UPPER LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AS A
BROADER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND THIS
REGIME IS LEAVING NM IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (15
TO 30 KT AT 700MB). A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO MODELED TO
MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE
PREVAILING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH, THE RETURN FLOW MADE ITS WAY ACROSS TX INTO
EASTERN NM, AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH SIGNIFICANT
RISES IN DEWPOINTS (50S AND LOW 60S DEG F). THIS MOISTURE,
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER INSTABILITY, AND A 60 TO 70 KT JET STREAK
ALOFT WILL COMBINE AND LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW TURNING
STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS PROJECT MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OF
STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING WITH STORMS MOSTLY
DECAYING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE ALSO RUNNING
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY. A
CLEARING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT, BUT A FEW
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COULD REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY.
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE MT-CANADIAN BORDER ON
WEDNESDAY, SENDING STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH MORE SUBDUED DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTHERN NM. A
DEEPER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE IN SOUTHEASTERN
CO, CAUSING SURFACE WINDS IN NM TO VEER MORE WESTERLY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY ERODE AWAY THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE IN EASTERN NM,
VIRTUALLY ELIMINATING STORM CHANCES WHILE KEEPING BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS GOING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WOULD ALREADY
BE WARM TO HOT, GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS, BUT THE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WIND COMPONENT IN EASTERN ZONES WILL BOOST
READINGS A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES MORE. FORECAST HIGHS ARE JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS AND ILLNESSES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA
TOWARD ONTARIO WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND AND
MOVING OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD
LEE-SIDE TROUGH WOULD ATTEMPT TO REDEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NM, BUT
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SEND DOWN A BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT WILL DISRUPT THIS AND PUSH IT FARTHER SOUTHWEST INTO
THE INTERIOR OF NM LATE IN THE DAY. ASIDE FROM A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING IN NORTHEASTERN NM, REMAINING AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
OBSERVE DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS. HEAT
IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE, PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AND
LOWER PECOS VALLEYS THURSDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT
FARTHER EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, AND THE BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT WILL
BE DRIVEN FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, EVENTUALLY PLOWING THROUGH THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND REACHING BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS PROJECTED TO INITIALIZE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT MEETS UP WITH MOIST RETURN FLOW IN WEST TX, BUT THIS
LARGELY LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF NM THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE
OVER EASTERN NM ZONES AND EVEN MODEST INCREASES OVER CENTRAL
ZONES. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PWATS OF 0.9 TO 1.2 INCHES PER ENSEMBLE
MEANS, GIVING THIS AREA THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
FARTHER WEST, THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE WILL OCCASIONALLY
SEE SPIKES IN PWATS TO 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES DURING THE FRIDAY TO
EARLY NEXT WEEK SPAN WHERE A MIX OF WET AND DRIER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WHILE AREAS FARTHER WEST WOULD QUICKLY TEND MORE TOWARDS
VIRGA AND DRIER CELLS. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL POTENTIALLY CLIP NORTHEASTERN NM AND
POSSIBLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INITIATION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE, ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND CENTRAL VALLEY
UNTIL MID EVENING. FARTHER WEST, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. OVER CENTRAL AREAS, DRY OR
MOSTLY DRY MICROBURSTS FROM A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED,
BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT. ON THE EASTERN PLAINS,
SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE UNTIL 9 PM, OR SO, BY PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A ROUGHLY 25% CHANCE THAT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS ON PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WE WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE BOUTS OF DRY AND GUSTY WESTERLIES
WITH THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE PERIODICALLY FIGHTING ITS WAY WESTWARD
INTO NM, TRUE-TO-FORM FOR EARLY JUNE. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST TEND WITH WETTER, STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF SOAKING DOWNPOURS IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL. THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN TO CENTRAL AREAS UNDER A THREAT
FOR NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WHILE PREVAILING WINDS STAY GUSTY. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST,
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 MPH. STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL NM PLAINS THIS EVENING AND DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESUME AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH MANY
NORTHERN ZONES FORECAST TO OBSERVE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY, DRYING THINGS OUT, EVEN IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
NORTHEASTERN AREA, AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE
DUE TO RAIN THAT WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY INCREASING
FUEL MOISTURE AND LOWERING ERC'S.
WINDS WILL UNDERGO A VERY SLIGHT REDUCTION IN SPEED ON THURSDAY,
BUT HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL
FORECAST. THE TUSAS AND JEMEZ MOUNTAINS SEEM TO BE THE BEST
CANDIDATES TO OBSERVE THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. THE
LOCALIZED NATURE OF THESE GUSTS WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A
WATCH FOR THESE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES, BUT LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE MET.
A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE IS STILL ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF NM VIA A BACKDOOR FRONT EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL TO THE
EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE AREAS WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE TEND TO OBSERVE MORE VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 86 46 88 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 88 53 88 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 89 48 90 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 86 51 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 48 94 49 94 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 52 97 53 97 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 79 45 82 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 87 61 88 / 20 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 51 88 54 90 / 30 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 83 52 85 / 20 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 77 42 78 / 30 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 79 37 81 / 40 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 86 51 88 / 20 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 86 52 86 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 94 54 95 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 89 58 90 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 93 55 93 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 94 66 95 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 96 65 96 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 98 58 98 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 97 63 97 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 100 61 98 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 97 61 97 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 98 58 97 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 98 62 98 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 98 59 97 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 94 63 93 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 96 63 96 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 101 66 100 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 89 59 89 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 91 59 91 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 90 57 91 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 92 53 92 / 20 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 87 57 88 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 92 58 91 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 90 58 91 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 94 66 94 / 20 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 87 57 88 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 49 87 51 79 / 30 0 0 0
RATON........................... 49 91 51 87 / 30 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 52 93 52 90 / 40 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 89 54 89 / 30 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 95 62 87 / 30 0 0 0
ROY............................. 56 93 57 87 / 30 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 100 62 97 / 50 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 97 62 96 / 50 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 101 68 98 / 60 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 99 68 98 / 30 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 100 69 100 / 30 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 100 65 99 / 40 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 68 102 68 103 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 61 96 64 97 / 30 0 0 0
ELK............................. 59 93 62 93 / 20 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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