567
FXUS65 KABQ 132325 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
- LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND GUST TO 50 MPH OR GREATER FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THEN IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
- MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY, WITH A HIGH CHANCE
(60-80%) ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THRU EARLY EVENING. THE 18Z KABQ RAOB SHOWED DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE INVERTED-V PROFILE TO 500MB AND A
PWAT OF 0.41". MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SPREADING
INTO THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY NAEFS PWATS RISING
TO NEAR +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. UNFORTUNATELY, TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT WITH A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
IN PLACE. 12 HREF MAX 3-HR QPF BARELY SHOWS 0.10" IN A FEW AREAS SO
THE OVERALL IMPACT WILL BE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS >50 MPH. TEMPS AGAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TAKING MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY BUT WITH HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
MOSTLY DRY STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN NM. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
WILL TREND DRIER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, SLIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES,
AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE FRIDAY. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NM WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. A
FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20-40% CHANCE) WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF RAIN AGAIN. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
HOT AND DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS.
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE PACNW WILL
ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE OVER NM SATURDAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE (GUSTS 20-30 MPH) WITH
EVEN HOTTER TEMPS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN EJECTING A LEADING TROUGH AXIS THRU THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY WITH 700-500MB WINDS OF 25-35 KT AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING TO BETWEEN 987MB AND 992MB OVER SOUTHEAST CO.
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL H5 SPREAD HAS INCREASED WITH TIMING AND DEPTH
ISSUES PRESENT AGAIN. MODEL DISCREPANCIES PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
WELL. EITHER WAY, SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER WITH
VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BOTH DAYS. LREF WIND
GUST PROBABILITIES >40 MPH ARE STILL ONLY 10-30% BOTH DAYS WHILE
THE LATEST NBM SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBS ON SUNDAY (20-40% CHANCE).
A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS
EASTERN NM TUESDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE H5 PATTERN EVOLVES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS VIRGA SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS HOUR. PROB30S AND TEMPOS ARE
CONTINUED AT WESTERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES THROUGH TO 02Z TO 03Z
WHEN THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DWINDLE. LIGHTER AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NM. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS AT KROW B/W 06Z AND
10Z. PREVAILING WESTERLIES TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AFTERNOON MOST
LOCATIONS WITH CHANCES FOR ERRATIC WIND SHIFTS FROM VIRGA AND DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING OT EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM THRU THIS EVENING. ERRATIC DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS >50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGER ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND
DRY STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY THEN MOVE EAST
INTO TX DURING THE EVENING. WHILE BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL COINCIDE
WITH SUBCRITICAL HUMIDITY FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN NM, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH GIVEN 1-HR AND 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE NEAR AVERAGE
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM, ERC VALUES BELOW THE 75TH PERCENTILE,
AND RFTIS IN THE 3 TO 4 RANGE. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL TREND
MUCH DRIER WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY WITH JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP A FEW STORMS EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN WILL RETURN SATURDAY THRU MONDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF NM. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER WILL BEGIN SATURDAY AND MAY PEAK SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER. THE DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EVOLVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 84 46 85 / 20 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 80 34 83 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 80 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 44 79 41 81 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 47 77 44 78 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 48 81 45 82 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 47 80 42 79 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 82 52 80 / 20 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 50 79 47 77 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 47 85 40 84 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 51 88 45 88 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 75 36 77 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 80 53 79 / 10 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 51 80 47 80 / 20 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 50 77 44 77 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 72 36 72 / 10 5 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 73 38 73 / 20 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 47 81 38 81 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 51 80 48 79 / 20 5 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 55 87 47 86 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 81 50 80 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 84 46 83 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 61 88 56 86 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 89 53 88 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 92 52 90 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 90 54 88 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 91 51 89 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 91 53 89 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 91 50 89 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 91 53 90 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 91 52 89 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 86 55 84 / 10 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 90 53 89 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 93 57 91 / 20 5 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 83 52 81 / 20 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 50 83 / 10 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 86 49 84 / 20 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 86 45 84 / 20 10 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 81 50 80 / 20 10 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 85 50 82 / 20 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 83 52 81 / 20 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 87 57 84 / 20 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 59 81 57 78 / 20 5 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 81 46 77 / 10 10 5 20
RATON........................... 51 85 44 82 / 10 5 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 52 87 45 84 / 10 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 82 50 82 / 20 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 61 90 57 86 / 10 20 10 20
ROY............................. 56 86 50 84 / 20 10 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 61 95 53 93 / 10 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 90 55 89 / 10 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 97 56 96 / 10 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 97 59 96 / 0 20 10 0
PORTALES........................ 60 97 60 97 / 0 20 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 95 57 94 / 5 20 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 97 63 96 / 0 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 59 91 60 89 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 58 90 57 88 / 10 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24
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