429
FXUS65 KABQ 090744
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
144 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND, TURNING MORE SPOTTY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TURN MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT, BUT ARE IN THE MIDST OF
TRANSITIONING MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. SPEEDS IN THE 700-
500 MB LAYER WILL TEND TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KT WITH PWATS
REMAINING LOW, ROUGHLY 0.4 TO 0.6 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30'S AND 40'S BY THIS
AFTERNOON, AND MODEST INSTABILITY (GENERALLY 200-500 J/KG SURFACE-
BASED CAPE) WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE
VERY SPARSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. STORMS WILL TEND TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD, BUT WILL NOT SUSTAIN THEMSELVES VERY FAR OFF OF
THEIR HIGH TERRAIN ORIGINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY'S READINGS AGAIN, NEAR TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OCCURRING IN THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF NM.
UPSTREAM FEATURES OF NOTE, A COLD CORE LOW NEAR 34N, 130W AND
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL, WILL GET SET INTO MORE OF AN NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON SATURDAY. THE WARM CORE REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL GET
INGESTED INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD CORE LOW, MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS STILL PROJECTED TO PUMP INCREASED MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN
CA AND AZ WITH MUCH MORE SUBDUED RISES INTO WESTERN NM (PWATS
STRUGGLING TO CLIMB TO 0.6 TO 0.9 INCH). INCREASED MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SEEP INTO NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MODERATING
THE INSTABILITY TO MORE MEAGER NUMBERS (100-400 J/KG OF CAPE)
THAT WILL STAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ZONES WITH QPF AMOUNTS
TENDING TO STAY BELOW 0.25 INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL IN THESE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
CLOUD COVER, BUT WILL STILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW AND REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL BE DRAWN INTO
SOUTHERN CA ON SUNDAY WITH THE DEEPEST SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STAYING CLOSE TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN. PWATS WILL RAISE
A BIT MORE IN NM, UP TO 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH, BUT WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY, MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RELIANT
ON UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE LOW ITSELF, AND THAT WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY RELEGATED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM WITH ONLY SPOTTY TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT THAT. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER CLOSE TO
NORMAL IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE EASTERN
PLAINS ZONES STAY ABOVE BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A NEW, SEPARATE LOW THEN DROPS DOWN THE CA COASTLINE ON MONDAY
AND THEN ROUNDS SOUTHERN CA AND CROSSES INTO NEIGHBORING
SOUTHWESTERN STATES BY TUESDAY BEFORE TREKKING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COLD CORE LOW IS NOT SHOWN TO BE AS
DEEP AS IT WAS ADVERTISED 24 HOURS AGO WITH SOME DISCONTINUITIES
IN THE TRACK ALSO APPEARING IN DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THIS HAS LARGE
CONSEQUENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE FATE OF ANY SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM, SIMON. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE AT
BATTLE ON WHETHER TO DRAW THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD BEFORE A POTENT
DRY SLOT ARRIVES, AND IT APPEARS THAT THE DRY SLOT IS WINNING FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF NM MIGHT BE
ABLE DRAW SOME MOISTURE IN BEFORE GETTING DRY-SLOTTED LATE
TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING IN THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD AND
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. THE POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE, AND INSTEAD A TREND TO MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS
LOOKING TO BE THE MORE LIKELY AND REASONABLE IMPACT, ESPECIALLY
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES NM.
DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
ARE ON TRACK TO FALL 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TURN COOLER,
WITH A FEW WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOCALES GETTING CLOSER TO THE
FREEZING MARK, BUT STILL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHTER,
DRIER, AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WOULD RELAX
MORE INTO FRIDAY WITH NO NOTABLE OR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FORESEEN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE AND THROUGH DAWN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN LIGHT AT 3 TO 8
KNOTS. A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES
WITH VERY SPOTTY AND SPARSE COVERAGE. ANY STORMS WILL BE MORE
INCLINED TO PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING RATHER
THAN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL BEFORE FIZZLING OUT IN THE EVENING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT FRI OCT 9 2026
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY WITH THE NORTHERN ZONES EXCEEDING CLIMATOLOGY BY THE MOST.
THESE WARMER THAN NORMAL ANOMALIES WILL REDUCE AND REDISTRIBUTE
THEMSELVES EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND MORE-SO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES AND TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS SKIRT THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST THIS AFTERNOON,
RANGING FROM 15 TO 30%, THEN STEADILY RISING DAY-BY-DAY TO A MORE
RESPECTABLE 25 TO 45% RANGE THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FOR WIND, VERY LIGHT BREEZES TODAY WILL TURN A BIT MORE
MODERATE (5 TO 15 MPH) ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING MORE SUNDAY,
MONDAY, AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS (ROUGHLY 15 TO 40 MPH).
FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY WILL BE ESCALATING DURING THIS TIME, AND
FUELS ARE STILL BENEFITING FROM LATE SEPTEMBER RAINS, SO NO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NM THIS
WEEKEND, BEFORE POTENTIALLY FOCUSING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DESPITE THE PAIR OF POTENT LOWS AND AVAILABLE
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH, INGREDIENTS DO NOT SEEM TO BE
OPTIMALLY ALIGNING FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 54 75 55 / 0 10 40 70
DULCE........................... 76 42 71 45 / 5 10 40 70
CUBA............................ 72 47 70 50 / 5 5 20 60
GALLUP.......................... 77 47 73 49 / 10 20 40 60
EL MORRO........................ 73 45 69 46 / 10 20 50 40
GRANTS.......................... 75 47 72 50 / 10 20 50 30
QUEMADO......................... 74 47 71 50 / 10 10 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 73 50 71 54 / 5 5 20 10
DATIL........................... 71 45 69 49 / 10 10 40 20
RESERVE......................... 78 47 75 51 / 10 5 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 82 54 81 55 / 5 0 30 50
CHAMA........................... 69 43 65 44 / 5 10 50 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 50 70 52 / 5 0 10 30
PECOS........................... 72 45 71 50 / 5 5 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 44 68 48 / 5 0 10 30
RED RIVER....................... 63 38 59 41 / 5 0 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 32 65 37 / 10 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 73 44 71 47 / 0 0 10 20
MORA............................ 71 41 70 47 / 10 5 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 78 50 76 53 / 5 0 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 73 48 71 53 / 5 5 5 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 48 74 52 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 77 55 77 60 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 79 56 78 59 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 55 80 59 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 79 54 78 59 / 0 0 5 20
BELEN........................... 80 53 80 57 / 0 0 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 80 54 79 58 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 52 80 57 / 0 0 5 20
CORRALES........................ 80 54 79 59 / 0 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 52 80 58 / 0 0 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 77 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 55 78 59 / 0 0 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 80 55 80 59 / 0 0 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 72 49 71 53 / 0 0 0 20
TIJERAS......................... 73 51 73 55 / 5 0 0 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 75 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 45 76 50 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 49 73 52 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 73 49 73 52 / 5 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 73 49 73 53 / 5 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 54 76 57 / 10 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 68 48 70 52 / 10 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 73 48 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 77 44 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 79 43 80 51 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 73 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 80 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 75 51 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 54 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 84 58 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 83 56 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 82 56 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 84 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 78 53 81 57 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 75 51 77 55 / 10 5 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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