627
FXUS65 KABQ 261841
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1241 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- THERE IS A MINOR 5% TO 15% OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATENING
LOCALIZED FLOODING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM TODAY, ALONGSIDE A MODERATE 30% TO 60% RISK OVER
THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE 30% TO 60% RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
THREATENING STRONG ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- THERE IS A MODERATE 30% TO 60% RISK OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM WILL THREATEN LOW VISIBILITY ON AREA
HIGHWAYS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
TODAY IS FEATURING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NM LASTING INTO THE
EVENING. THERE IS A MINOR RISK OF SOME OF THE STRONGER MORE RAIN
EFFICIENT THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING A FLASH FLOODING RISK OVER EASTERN
NM, NOTABLY OVER ALREADY RAIN SOAKED AREAS YESTERDAY. THE LARGER
SCALE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FEATURES A 550DM H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN CA WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LEACHED OUT FROM THE H5'S LOW
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OVER NM. THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS HOUR, HIGHLIGHTED
BY TD'S RANGING FROM THE 40S ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, 50S WITHIN THE CENTRAL VALLEY AREAS, TO LOW 60S TOWARD THE
TX LINE. GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES A BUILDING CU FIELD THROUGH
WESTERN NM WHERE THERE IS CLEAR MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SKIES, WITH LESS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY BEING REALIZED OVER EASTERN NM GIVEN
THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD SHIELD OVER EASTERN NM ACTING TO LIMIT
DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THERE IS AN EXCEPTION ENCROACHING INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM NEAR
CLOVIS FROM A MESO-LOW THAT SPUN NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK
EARLIER THIS MORNING. LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL NORTHEAST OF
CLOVIS WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CURRY AND QUAY COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, THIS AFTERNOON'S THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FEATURE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOWS. WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING SCOURED OUT, SURFACE
TD DEPRESSIONS WILL AGAIN CLIMB IN TURN YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG OF
DCAPE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
REACHING THE 40-50MPH RANGE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR INITIATION
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE STEADILY EXPANDING AND TRACKING EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS TOWARD TX. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BRING A MINOR RISK 5% TO 15% OF FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NM, NOTABLY OVER RAIN SOAKED AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THAT SAW ~2" TOTALS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, NOTABLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY WHERE
1200-1700 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL LAY. HOWEVER, 0- 6KM BULK SHEAR IS
LACKING, ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 20-25KTS. ANY OF THESE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND PULSY IN NATURE.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STEADILY WANES THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHTER
AND CONFINED IN NATURE TO NORTHEASTERN NM TO START THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN SCOURED OUT THRU
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, ENOUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM TONIGHT
TO ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH EAST-
CENTRAL NM HAVE A FAIR CHANCE TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT, REDUCING VISIBILITY ON AREA HIGHWAYS FOR THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT ENCROACHMENT OF
THE H5 LOW OVER NORTHERN CA TO CENTRAL CA. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL THUS REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO AND THE OK
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL MOVE THE AFTERNOON CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CAPROCK IN EAST-CENTRAL NM
FROM TUCUMCARI TO CLOVIS AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH WEST TO OR JUST THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THURSDAY AGAIN SEES AN ALL TO FAMILIAR TWO-FACED MOISTURE SETUP
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNDERLYING MODEST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL YIELD SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. INTERESTINGLY, BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS FEATURE CI OVER LINCOLN COUNTY THAT
BACKTRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ONCOMING LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF. SECONDARY CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM CLOVIS TO
ROSWELL SOUTHWARD.
THEREAFTER, GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FEATURES GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A VORTMAX WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 562-568DM H5 LOW
OVER NV/UT SWINGS OVER AZ/NM FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A SHARPENING
DRYLINE FEATURE OVER HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL FAVOR
THIS SHARPENING DRYLINE FEATURE, WITH THE SETUP FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN NM. DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS ADVANCE EASTWARD
TOWARD TX THIS WEEKEND, SHUTTING DOWN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE EAST WILL ATTEMPT TO RETAKE
EASTERN NM EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN TURN INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS NM THIS HOUR, FUEL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HAVE
INCLUDED VARIOUS TEMPOS AND PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR ERRATIC GUSTY
WINDS FROM PASSING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT TAF SITES. KROW HAS
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DIRECT HIT AND MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
FROM ONE OF THESE CELLS AS FAR AS TAF SITES GO. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WANES THIS EVENING FROM 01Z TO 06Z WITH REMNANT LOW
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NM
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT KROW FROM THIS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS FAVORED
TO PREVAIL ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED TO LOCALLY AND SHORT-LIVED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY ALONGSIDE DRIER WESTERLY
WINDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE TODAY, TRENDING LOWER EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES ADVANCE TO THE TX BORDER THIS
WEEKEND, EXPANDING AREAS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SHORT-LIVED CRITICAL
THAT WILL CLEARLY BE LIMITED FROM EXPECTED ENSUING GREENUP OF FINER
FUELS THROUGH EASTERN NM LATER THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 85 50 88 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 36 80 39 84 / 20 5 0 5
CUBA............................ 41 77 45 79 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 37 80 38 82 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 41 77 43 79 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 80 41 82 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 77 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 48 76 51 78 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 74 46 76 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 80 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 85 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 73 38 77 / 20 5 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 75 52 78 / 20 5 0 5
PECOS........................... 42 75 44 78 / 20 10 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 72 45 77 / 20 10 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 36 62 37 68 / 30 20 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 67 35 72 / 30 30 0 20
TAOS............................ 40 76 42 80 / 20 5 0 5
MORA............................ 41 70 43 74 / 40 40 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 47 82 49 86 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 76 50 79 / 20 5 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 79 48 81 / 20 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 83 57 86 / 20 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 84 53 87 / 20 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 86 51 89 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 84 54 87 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 46 85 48 88 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 85 54 88 / 20 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 45 85 48 88 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 86 54 89 / 20 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 85 49 88 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 81 55 83 / 20 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 85 53 88 / 20 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 52 87 54 90 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 47 78 51 80 / 20 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 47 79 50 81 / 20 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 79 47 81 / 20 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 81 43 82 / 20 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 75 46 76 / 20 5 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 79 45 82 / 20 0 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 77 47 80 / 20 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 79 52 83 / 20 0 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 46 73 49 75 / 20 10 0 40
CAPULIN......................... 41 64 41 70 / 40 70 20 30
RATON........................... 44 70 44 76 / 40 60 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 45 71 45 77 / 50 50 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 71 46 75 / 30 20 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 48 69 48 76 / 60 60 30 20
ROY............................. 46 70 46 75 / 50 40 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 49 78 50 83 / 40 20 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 76 49 80 / 30 10 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 79 52 83 / 50 20 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 50 80 52 83 / 30 30 0 5
PORTALES........................ 50 81 52 84 / 30 20 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 80 51 84 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 82 55 85 / 20 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 47 79 51 81 / 20 10 0 40
ELK............................. 44 80 48 81 / 20 5 0 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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