547
FXUS65 KABQ 211125 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
- A FEW STRAY EVAPORATING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. VERY LOW CHANCE OF NEW FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING.
- THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND FOR AT LEAST
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY FIRE STARTS.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
CLOUDS FROM TODAY HIGH BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAVE
MOSTLY CLEARED OUT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM DUE TO
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS FROM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BURN OFF LATE THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S
DISTURBANCE AND AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW SPINNING
OFF SOUTHERN OR AND NORTHERN CA. A FEW STRAY TO ISOLATED GUSTY VIRGA
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T LOOK TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PWATS AROUND
0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND COOL TO MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.
THE UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST TODAY MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. 500 TO 700 MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE DURING DAY TO 30 TO 45 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN MUCH DRIER AND BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. MOS AND NBM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THE UPPER RGV NEAR THE CO
BORDER, AND NORTHWEST NM AROUND GALLUP AND FARMINGTON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN AROUND 6 TO 10 PERCENT, MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A HIGH RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH PEAKS. AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES YESTERDAY, LIKE THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN, WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL NEW FIRE
STARTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
WEST WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO 700
MB WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PASSING
OVERHEAD. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND BEHIND
THE PACIFIC FRONT THURSDAY. WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BE AS STRONG IF NOT A TOUCH
STRONGER ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MOS AND NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
AS THE INITIAL LEAD UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, IT WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT WITH SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH NORTHEAST NM.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A 2ND SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION OVER SASKATCHEWAN, CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG UPPER
AND MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL HELP QUICKLY
MIX OUT THE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 45 MPH LOOK TO BE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OF A HIGH RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY
ON SATURDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TO NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES SCRAPE THIS PART OF THE STATE. SOUTHWEST WINDS ON
SUNDAY LOOK TO POTENTIALLY BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SATURDAY AND AT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
BASED ON MOS GUIDANCE. DURING THIS ACTIVE PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 16Z ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. INCREASING
MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A
FEW STRAY TO ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 KTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. ANY SHOWER
TO STORM ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET WITH SOME LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK...
WARMER WITH LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE AND SOME
STRAY TO ISOLATED DRY AND GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS AN SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THESE STRONGER WINDS COMBINED WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
VERY LOW TEENS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS,
CONTINUED VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, AND ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BEING FAVORED. SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS REMAIN VERY GUSTY
FRIDAY AMONG NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. NOT
AS WINDY SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE TO NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS DISTURBANCES SCRAPE THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 45 75 39 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 75 37 70 29 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 74 41 72 34 / 10 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 76 35 70 29 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 72 39 68 33 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 76 38 73 33 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 40 72 35 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 74 47 76 42 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 72 42 70 37 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 77 36 74 34 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 81 40 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 68 36 64 28 / 10 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 72 49 72 41 / 10 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 75 42 73 38 / 20 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 42 68 35 / 10 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 65 34 62 30 / 10 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 30 65 28 / 10 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 75 38 72 34 / 10 10 0 0
MORA............................ 72 41 71 37 / 20 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 80 45 79 36 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 75 46 74 39 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 44 78 37 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 54 79 47 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 53 81 46 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 83 45 83 40 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 82 51 82 46 / 5 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 83 46 84 44 / 5 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 82 50 81 43 / 5 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 44 83 41 / 5 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 82 50 82 44 / 5 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 45 83 43 / 5 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 78 52 78 45 / 5 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 80 51 80 46 / 5 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 84 50 86 47 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 48 74 42 / 5 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 75 49 75 43 / 5 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 45 75 41 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 37 78 38 / 5 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 44 73 39 / 5 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 44 76 41 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 45 75 43 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 51 78 49 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 45 73 44 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 75 43 75 38 / 10 5 0 0
RATON........................... 79 40 78 37 / 10 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 81 40 81 39 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 43 74 41 / 10 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 81 49 84 47 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 79 46 80 43 / 10 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 86 49 87 50 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 83 50 84 49 / 10 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 53 90 51 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 83 51 88 50 / 0 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 51 88 51 / 0 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 48 88 50 / 10 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 86 51 91 52 / 10 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 49 83 50 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 46 79 49 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104>106-120>126.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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