915
FXUS65 KABQ 160709
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
109 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH FOR
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
YESTERDAY'S WIND MACHINE IS NOW A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE POLAR JET STREAK THAT PLUNGED SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE FEATURE HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF NM, BUT ANOTHER WEAKER, YET
STILL STRONG (135 TO 145 KT AT 300 MB), JET STREAK IS FILLING IN
BEHIND IT. THIS JET STREAK WILL STRETCH FROM WESTERN MT DOWN TO THE
FOUR CORNERS, AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. MODEL PROJECTIONS OF
700 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT SHOULD SERVE AS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR
MAX WIND GUSTS THERE TODAY. FARTHER EAST, SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SIDESTEPPING FARTHER EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MODELED
TO STAY BELOW NORMAL BY 8 TO 18 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
WHILE REMAINING AREAS ENJOY A FINAL DAY OF SEASONABLE READINGS.
THE WESTERN CONUS JET STREAK WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND EXIT TO OUR
EAST GOING INTO TUESDAY. STILL, FAIRLY STIFF FLOW WILL LINGER AROUND
700 MB WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KT PERSISTING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
THIS WILL KEEP BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS GOING IN SIMILAR ZONES ON
TUESDAY, STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS AND HIGHLANDS OF NM WITH GUSTS RUNNING 5 TO 10 MPH LESS THAN
TODAY'S. THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY
WILL BE A STARK WARM-UP BY 10 TO 25 DEGREES. PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
SOAR AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN CA, AND A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIVE DOWNSLOPING (COMPRESSIONAL WARMING)
BREEZES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
THERE IS STILL GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO MIGRATE
EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN INTO WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO GAIN UNSEASONABLE STRENGTH. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WOULD CREST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 593-595 DECAMETERS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (ABOUT 3.8 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
PER THE NAEFS). THIS WILL LEAD TO A QUICK REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS
ALOFT OVER NM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND ALSO INTO SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH BEGINS ELONGATING AND WEAKENING WITH ITS CENTER CLOSER TO
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR IN THIS REGIME WITH DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND
ALSO SOME MONTHLY HIGHS GETTING CHALLENGED EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT READINGS
WILL REACH THE HIGH VALUES ADVERTISED BY MOS GUIDANCE AND THE NBM,
GIVEN WHERE WE FIND OURSELVES APPROACHING THE SPRING EQUINOX. MOS
CAN OFTEN STRUGGLE DURING THESE SEASONAL TRANSITIONS, AND
LIMITATIONS TO DAYLIGHT LENGTH AND SOLAR ZENITH WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. STILL, A COUPLE HOURS OF HEAT IMPACTS DUE TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80'S TO 90;S CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON. THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHEN
READINGS FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS (F), WILL YIELD VERY
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES, SO CHILLY NIGHTS WILL STILL
CONTINUE.
THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS MORE AND GETS SHOVED SOUTHWARD INTO SUNDAY,
OPENING THE DOOR TO WESTERLY FLOW, BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS. MORE IMPACT WILL COME FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST BULLISH OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL MEMBERS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS FALL OUT OF AGREEMENT INTO NEXT
MONDAY AND BEYOND, BUT ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARD A LIGHT, DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT SUN MAR 15 2026
LOTS OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NM WITH A
FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER
TO THIN OUT AND EXIT THROUGH MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THOUGH, AND BREEZES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KT) THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN MORE INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
OTHER REMAINING AREAS STAYING MODERATELY BREEZY. GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KT WILL IMPACT KFMN AND KGNT, AND IN AREAS BETWEEN WHILE
REMAINING AREAS STAY WITHIN A 10 TO 25 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
A WELCOME REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS IS SLATED FOR TODAY, HOWEVER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL STILL STRETCH FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
DOWN TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS A LAGGING JET STREAK ALOFT SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD 15 TO 20% HUMIDITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY MARGINAL OR LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
(FARMINGTON AREA) WHERE A COUPLE TO A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ON TUESDAY, WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL NOT FULLY ABATE OVER NORTHWESTERN TO
CENTRAL AREAS WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO SOAR ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
AGAIN EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A VERY STOUT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 20%, BUT VALUES WILL DROP
TOWARDS 5% ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS LATE IN THE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO DECLINE AMID THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. SEVERAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY. FORTUNATELY, WIND SPEEDS
WILL LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT, BUT WILL
DETRIMENTAL TO FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 63 34 73 38 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 62 25 71 29 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 29 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 26 73 30 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 31 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 63 29 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 61 32 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 38 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 60 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 30 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 76 32 85 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 27 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 37 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 58 30 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 30 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 28 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 50 19 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 58 24 72 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 56 30 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 66 31 77 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 36 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 31 74 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 43 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 39 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 37 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 38 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 69 34 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 38 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 69 33 80 40 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 68 36 79 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 69 32 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 40 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 39 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 72 40 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 38 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 38 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 35 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 24 73 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 31 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 32 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 60 36 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 35 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 24 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 50 21 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 53 22 75 33 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 28 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 49 30 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 48 24 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 25 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 25 78 40 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 26 79 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 28 76 42 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 53 25 77 37 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 24 79 39 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 53 28 78 43 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 32 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 31 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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