284
FXUS65 KABQ 080807
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
107 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1258 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
- MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR JET, AND IS SPINNING
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS FEATURE WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NM AS LAST EVENING'S
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, ALLOWING WEAK SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR ALOFT TO BUILD INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TURN NORTHERLY IN NORTHEASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINING NM PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THIS WILL OFFER A
FEW DEGREES OF COOLING, BUT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE TODAY.
NOT NECESSARILY SURPRISING, BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CUT-OFF LOW, BARELY CARRYING IT TOWARD
THE LOWER BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIFFLUENCE WELL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
SO ANOTHER DRY DAY WILL BE IN STORE. ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
PROJECTED TO MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA WITH THE BETTER MID TO LOWER
LAYER MOISTURE STAYING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND A
SMALL SPEED MAX ALOFT (WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AT 700 MB) IS PROJECTED
ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN NM. THIS WILL YIELD WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM WHILE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS MIX DOWN, CREATING VERY LOW HUMIDITY AMID
THE ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 10 TO 20
DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY, ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
NM WHERE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CREATE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
THE CUT-OFF BAJA LOW IS FINALLY PROJECTED TO INCREASE ITS EASTWARD
PACE, BUT AMERICAN MODELS (GFS/NAM) ARE LAGGING WITH RESPECT TO THE
MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. AT ANY RATE, THE
LOW WOULD CROSS CHIHUAHUA AND FAR WEST TX SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, OFFERING MINIMAL OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WOULD HAVE JUST A 10 TO 30% CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY. THE ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH WOULD PERSIST, BUT THE EDGE WOULD BE TAKEN OFF IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES TUESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, FORECAST MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE INCREASE IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WITH MODELED 700 MB WIND SPEEDS BEING
REDUCED BY 10 TO 15 KT. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WOULD STILL TAKE
SHAPE WEDNESDAY, KICKING UP BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WIND DIRECTIONS
SWING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NBM INTRODUCES 10 TO 40% POPS
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
NEXT UPSTREAM PERTURBATION, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WOULD
MOSTLY IMPACT UT AND CO INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN OR HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT FALLS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WOULD
BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY INCONSEQUENTIAL.
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
TO NORTH CENTRAL NM ZONES INTO THURSDAY, BUT LATEST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FORCING WITH A LESS PERTURBED, BUT
STILL BRISK (15-35 KT AT 700 MB), WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS LEAD TO A PATTERNED
REDUCTION IN POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE BETTER
WINDOW FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT STARTING TO ALIGN MORE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING LONGER WAVE TROUGH.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES
REGARDING THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WITH THE GEFS MEAN REPRESENTING
FASTER SOLUTIONS THAT THE GEPS, AND MUCH MORE SO THAN THE ENS.
REGARDLESS OF TIMING, THIS WAVE OR CLOSED LOW WOULD OFFER
CONSIDERABLY MORE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION AND ENOUGH OF A
MARITIME INFLUENCE FOR BETTER PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, GIVEN ITS
PACIFIC ORIGINS. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONTAL
INTRUSION NEAR THE CROSSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION, MORE-
SO WITH A SLOWER EUROPEAN SOLUTION. BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS,
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WOULD LIKELY FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
SNOW LEVELS COMMONLY HOVERING BETWEEN 7,500 TO 8,500 FT. SATURDAY
MORNING'S WEATHER WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED AND EXITING OF
THE WAVE, BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALL SOLUTIONS INDICATE DRIER AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
A RELATIVELY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH.
WHILE BRIEF LLWS MAY OCCUR IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY, AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS (AND CONSEQUENTLY RH) HAS TRENDED LOWER INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED MORE BY A STRONG LEE-
SIDE SURFACE LOW AND A SPEED MAX ALOFT THAT WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS JUXTAPOSED OVER THE VERY LOW RH,
PARTICULARLY IN EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NM. WITH A FEW SMALL
WILDFIRES ALREADY IN PROGRESS IN THESE AREAS, AND A CREDIBLE THREAT
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, WE ARE OPTING TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A CUT-OFF LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS SOUTH OF NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS SLATED FOR THE ABQ
FIRE WEATHER AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE SLATED TO TAKE SHAPE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE REDUCED WIND SPEEDS FROM WHAT
THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY AND ALSO THROUGH THURSDAY WITH JUST LIGHT AND SCANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NM. BETTER RELIEF IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RH, WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WHEN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS
PROJECTED TO CROSS NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 28 62 30 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 60 21 60 21 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 58 26 60 29 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 60 17 63 22 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 59 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 61 20 66 23 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 60 26 64 30 / 0 0 5 5
MAGDALENA....................... 60 34 64 38 / 0 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 58 30 61 32 / 0 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 67 26 67 29 / 0 0 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 71 29 72 32 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 53 23 53 24 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 33 57 34 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 59 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 46 25 49 28 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 14 54 19 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 58 22 61 23 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 60 27 62 31 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 64 25 66 26 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 59 33 59 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 29 62 31 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 38 64 40 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 34 66 37 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 31 68 34 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 66 25 68 30 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 66 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 26 68 31 / 0 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 66 31 68 35 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 27 68 32 / 0 0 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 61 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 33 66 36 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 68 33 71 36 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 33 59 36 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 59 35 60 37 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 28 63 32 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 63 20 65 26 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 31 64 35 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 36 66 40 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 60 36 60 41 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 59 29 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 61 24 68 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 64 23 71 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 27 66 30 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 66 37 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 64 28 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 71 30 77 33 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 33 74 38 / 0 0 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 32 78 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 72 36 75 41 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 31 76 37 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 72 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 69 37 71 42 / 0 0 5 5
ELK............................. 69 34 67 40 / 0 0 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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