068
FXUS65 KABQ 270755
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
155 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ALSO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
- STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE WEST TODAY, CENTERED
OVER OR VERY NEAR LUNA, NM. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR AND SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WITH AFTERNOON DCAPE VALUES PROJECTED TO BE
NEAR 1500 J/KG. MEANWHILE, STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, MORE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 25-30KT WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH STEERING FLOW HAVING MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS AND SHOULD RATHER STAY A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE HIGH TERRAIN TODAY, BUT MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW
STORMS SHIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE UPPER HIGH IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON
FRIDAY, THOUGH SHOULD STILL BE CENTERED WEST OF ABQ BY THE LATE
AFTN. NONETHELESS, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER THAN TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. STORMS WILL AGAIN INITIATE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN CWA-WIDE. PWATS WILL TREND UPWARD, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, INCLUDING AROUND RUIDOSO, WHERE BOTH THE RRFS AND
HRRR HAVE STORMS THERE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE LESS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NM, THUS THE RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DECREASES, THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AREAWIDE. MORE STORMS SHOULD REACH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
AS COMPARED TO TODAY AS WELL.
THE STORMS THIS PAST EVENING AND PROJECTED STORMS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MANAGEABLE AND CLOSER TO
NORMAL (IN THE 90S) ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM ARE STILL AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THIS RESULTS IN NEAR-
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS OVER EAST CENTRAL NM, BUT ALSO ELONGATES EASTWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF OK. THIS SHIFT COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CA COAST
SHOULD ALLOW A BETTER MOISTURE PLUME TO STAND UP OVER AZ AND
WESTERN NM. THUS, STORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD FAVOR
WESTERN NM, AND WITH PWATS APPROACHING ONE INCH, WILL BE CAPABLE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED NUISANCE OR FLASH FLOODING. STORMS
WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BUT THE FOCUS WILL REALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN NM. INSTEAD,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH THE UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR RECORDS AS THEY SOAR UP TO
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A VORT MAX, PRESUMABLY FROM
CONVECTION OVER MX THE PREVIOUS EVENING/NIGHT, WILL CROSS
NORTHWEST NM SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING WITH
THAT VORT MAX. IF IT DOES CROSS OVERNIGHT AND KEEP PRECIPITATION
GOING, DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLEAR AND THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD STAY RATHER STABLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. IF THE VORT
MAX CROSSES EARLIER OR LATER, THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NM. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
REMAIN EAST OF NM, BUT IT DOESN'T WANT TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP
ENTIRELY. A RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ELONGATED BACK INTO EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NM WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL. THUS,
PRESUMING THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY. ANOTHER VORT
MAX AND/OR ENERGY FROM THE ORIGINAL CA COAST TROUGH WILL CROSS NW
NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ELONGATION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS
AROUND 1-2 DAM AT H5 ACROSS EASTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THAT
IN MIND, STORMS SHOULD REACH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN ON
SUNDAY, FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.
MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT THAT IT WILL SHIFT BACK
OVER NM OR PERHAPS A SECONDARY HIGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER NM. SHOULD
THAT OCCUR, IT WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE MOISTURE PLUME AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL SCALE BACK FROM SUN/MON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NM
LATE THIS EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH LIKE TODAY, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 50KT,
AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE STRONG
OUTFLOWS MAY LOCALLY KICK UP DUST AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES. STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z FRI.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHILE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IN POCKETS OF DRY FUELS MAY
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NEW FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY (AND LIKELY THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NM). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY, BUT STORMS SHOULD
INCREASINGLY BEGIN TO FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS PWATS INCREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE PRODUCTIVE IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN NM. UNTIL THEN,
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE RULE. WHILE STORMS
SHOULD FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
STILL ON MONDAY, THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH, AND THUS THE
FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION, REMAINS IN QUESTION THEREAFTER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 65 96 65 / 5 5 0 20
DULCE........................... 91 50 91 54 / 20 20 5 10
CUBA............................ 89 58 89 60 / 10 10 5 30
GALLUP.......................... 92 58 92 59 / 20 10 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 87 56 88 56 / 20 10 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 90 58 91 59 / 20 20 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 89 59 89 59 / 20 20 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 89 63 88 63 / 20 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 86 58 86 58 / 30 20 40 40
RESERVE......................... 94 59 93 59 / 20 20 40 40
GLENWOOD........................ 98 64 97 63 / 20 30 40 40
CHAMA........................... 84 51 85 53 / 30 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 61 86 63 / 40 20 30 30
PECOS........................... 86 56 87 58 / 30 30 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 53 84 56 / 30 20 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 73 46 76 49 / 40 30 30 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 39 80 42 / 50 30 40 20
TAOS............................ 86 54 88 56 / 30 20 20 20
MORA............................ 82 52 84 54 / 50 40 50 30
ESPANOLA........................ 92 61 93 63 / 20 20 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 87 60 88 62 / 20 30 10 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 59 91 61 / 20 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 67 94 69 / 10 20 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 67 95 68 / 10 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 66 97 67 / 10 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 67 95 69 / 10 20 5 20
BELEN........................... 97 65 97 66 / 10 20 5 20
BERNALILLO...................... 96 66 96 68 / 10 20 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 97 64 97 65 / 10 20 0 20
CORRALES........................ 96 66 96 68 / 10 20 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 65 96 66 / 10 20 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 93 65 93 67 / 20 20 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 67 95 69 / 10 20 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 98 69 98 70 / 10 20 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 60 88 63 / 20 20 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 90 62 90 64 / 20 20 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 90 58 91 60 / 20 20 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 55 92 57 / 20 20 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 57 87 60 / 30 30 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 89 58 89 61 / 20 30 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 58 89 61 / 10 30 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 64 90 66 / 20 30 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 83 57 82 59 / 40 40 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 82 55 86 59 / 30 30 20 20
RATON........................... 85 53 89 55 / 40 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 87 54 91 56 / 40 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 54 86 57 / 50 40 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 87 62 91 67 / 10 20 5 20
ROY............................. 85 58 88 62 / 20 40 5 10
CONCHAS......................... 94 64 97 68 / 10 30 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 91 63 93 66 / 10 40 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 63 96 68 / 10 30 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 93 64 94 68 / 10 30 5 10
PORTALES........................ 94 65 95 68 / 10 30 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 65 96 68 / 10 50 0 20
ROSWELL......................... 98 69 98 71 / 5 30 5 5
PICACHO......................... 92 62 92 64 / 20 30 5 10
ELK............................. 89 59 89 60 / 40 30 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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