004
FXUS65 KABQ 181901
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
101 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- AFTER A DOWNTURN IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
CHANCES WILL RAMP BACK UP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PERSISTS OVER THE REGION, BUT A DRIER
AIRMASS OVER THE DESERT SW IS OFFERING AN OBVIOUS CONTRAST ON THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS AIRMASS IS STAGED TO
OVERTAKE NM THIS WEEKEND AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS TO THE WEST WITH
AN UPPER LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN, MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM, FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADD SOME FORCING TO KEEP
CONVECTION GOING LONGER INTO THE NIGHT THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
BEING MODELED BY THE CAMS. A DOWNTREND IN PWATS IS FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED DOWNTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, AS
THE DRIER AIRMASS TO THE WEST IS STEERED OVER NM. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST CAMS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP OF 20-30MPH SATURDAY
AND WITH LOWER PWATS, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL TREND DOWN AS
WELL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY,
INCLUDING IN RUIDOSO WHERE ALL OF THE CAMS ARE FORECASTING A DOWN
DAY WITH ISOLATED OFF-SCAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
PWATS WILL CONTINUE A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AND BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS,
BUT THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS LARGELY VOID OF QPF ACROSS OUR AREA AT
THAT TIME. A PACIFIC LOW IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE EASTWARD FROM OVER
CA ON MON/TUE, WHILE THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS REINFORCED ACROSS
EASTERN NM. THIS SETUP WILL BRING A RESURGENCE IN PWATS AS A
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STANDS UP OVER THE REGION. MONDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY AND TUESDAY IS LOOKING ACTIVE. PWATS WILL
CHALLENGE CALENDAR DAY RECORDS BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS LOOKING
LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN AT THIS TIME. THE PACIFIC
LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF THE PICTURE ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ALONG THE UPPER GULF COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE WET FORECAST GOING WITH
A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE OVER NM. WORTHY OF NOTE, THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE TROPICAL PATTERN
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AND THE
ECMWF HAS MODELED TROPICAL REMNANTS TO MOVE NORTH INTO NM BY
FRIDAY FOR TWO RUNS IN A ROW NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITH SCT/NUM SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION, PATCHES OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
KFMN AND KGUP. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, EXCEPT FOR GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES OVER THE AREA,
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A RELATIVE DRIER AIRMASS OVERTAKES THE REGION. HOWEVER,
HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL TREND BACK UP GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME STANDS
BACK UP OVER THE REGION. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK DOWN
AND BE BELOW AVERAGE FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT
OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 81 50 80 / 30 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 77 40 77 / 60 20 20 0
CUBA............................ 49 75 47 75 / 50 50 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 78 45 78 / 20 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 47 75 45 74 / 30 20 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 78 47 78 / 40 30 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 77 49 76 / 30 30 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 55 77 54 77 / 40 40 10 0
DATIL........................... 51 76 50 76 / 30 30 10 0
RESERVE......................... 53 83 51 83 / 10 10 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 88 58 87 / 10 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 71 42 71 / 50 20 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 75 52 76 / 40 50 40 0
PECOS........................... 51 78 49 78 / 30 20 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 74 46 74 / 40 20 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 65 40 65 / 30 20 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 71 36 70 / 20 20 30 5
TAOS............................ 47 77 45 78 / 30 20 30 0
MORA............................ 49 77 46 76 / 20 20 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 54 81 52 82 / 40 30 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 54 77 53 77 / 40 20 40 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 79 51 80 / 30 20 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 81 58 82 / 30 30 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 59 81 57 82 / 30 30 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 83 57 84 / 30 30 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 82 57 82 / 30 30 30 0
BELEN........................... 57 84 55 84 / 40 40 30 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 83 56 84 / 20 30 40 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 83 54 84 / 30 30 30 0
CORRALES........................ 58 82 56 83 / 30 30 40 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 83 55 84 / 40 40 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 58 80 56 81 / 20 30 40 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 81 56 83 / 30 30 40 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 85 60 86 / 30 30 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 76 52 77 / 30 30 40 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 78 54 78 / 30 30 40 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 79 50 80 / 30 20 30 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 81 47 82 / 30 20 30 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 78 51 78 / 30 20 30 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 79 53 79 / 30 30 30 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 80 53 80 / 30 20 40 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 83 60 84 / 40 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 78 54 78 / 60 30 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 53 80 50 76 / 10 20 20 20
RATON........................... 50 84 48 81 / 20 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 51 86 48 83 / 20 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 80 48 79 / 20 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 62 88 58 80 / 10 10 20 5
ROY............................. 56 85 53 81 / 20 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 60 89 / 30 10 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 89 60 88 / 50 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 92 61 88 / 30 10 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 64 90 62 90 / 40 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 65 92 63 91 / 40 10 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 91 62 91 / 60 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 66 94 63 95 / 50 20 20 0
PICACHO......................... 60 88 60 88 / 70 40 10 10
ELK............................. 58 85 57 86 / 60 30 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ201-203-204-206-
207-226-239-241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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