112
FXUS65 KABQ 091924
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
124 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 119 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THEN AGAIN THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN LITTLE
RAINFALL WITH A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHER HUMIDITY,
THICKER CLOUD COVER, AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A MOIST STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM. THE H5 LOW WILL BE FILLING SO THE MAIN
DRIVERS FOR LIFT WILL BE MEAGER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, OROGRAPHICS, AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE IS STILL LIMITED TO
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINFALL (>0.10") REMAINS ABOVE 80%. THE GILA REGION AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OF
>0.25" (30-50% CHANCE). SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN OVER
EASTERN NM TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT IN
THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BRING A SHARP NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM THRU SUNSET. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING FAR EASTERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LATEST RRFS AND HREF PROB WIND GUSTS >50 MPH AVERAGE
20-40% ALONG THE TX/NM WITH GOOD AGREEMENT FROM MOS GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING
TEMPS FOR MANY AREAS.
THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARMING TEMPS, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED
BY LATE WEEK IN MANY AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS POISED TO ENTER EASTERN NM SUNDAY WITH BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THRU SUNSET. WEST/SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KT WILL PEAK OVER EASTERN NM BTWN 2PM AND 6PM.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD NORTH AFT SUNSET AND
LOWER THRU MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP NORTH TOWARD THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NM THRU SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHRA WITH
A FEW TSRA WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NM THRU NOON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER EASTERN NM AND A
COUPLE SMALL FIRES HAVE BEEN DETECTED. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TUESDAY.
THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHEST AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-40, ESPECIALLY THE GILA REGION AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MTS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN NM THRU LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS EASTERN NM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 50 MPH ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER WITH THE FRONT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS AREAWIDE. THE NEXT FIRE GROWING
PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, AND WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 33 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 25 64 25 65 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 62 33 62 / 10 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 63 28 66 / 10 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 58 31 64 / 30 30 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 62 30 67 / 20 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 56 33 64 / 60 50 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 39 59 39 67 / 40 60 5 0
DATIL........................... 35 54 36 63 / 50 70 5 0
RESERVE......................... 33 57 30 68 / 90 80 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 36 59 33 74 / 90 90 10 0
CHAMA........................... 27 58 25 59 / 0 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 62 38 64 / 10 30 0 0
PECOS........................... 35 62 36 64 / 20 40 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 61 31 60 / 0 30 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 26 52 22 53 / 0 30 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 57 22 56 / 5 40 5 0
TAOS............................ 28 64 26 64 / 0 20 5 0
MORA............................ 33 62 33 62 / 10 40 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 34 69 35 70 / 5 30 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 63 38 65 / 10 40 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 65 35 67 / 10 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 66 43 70 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 44 68 41 72 / 20 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 70 40 74 / 20 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 44 69 42 72 / 10 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 40 68 38 74 / 30 40 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 69 41 72 / 20 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 70 37 74 / 20 30 5 0
CORRALES........................ 43 70 42 73 / 10 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 69 38 74 / 30 30 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 65 41 68 / 20 30 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 69 41 71 / 10 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 68 45 75 / 40 50 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 61 39 64 / 30 30 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 64 35 68 / 30 30 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 65 36 68 / 30 30 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 65 36 68 / 30 30 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 62 35 62 / 30 30 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 62 36 67 / 40 40 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 38 61 38 67 / 40 40 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 43 61 41 70 / 50 60 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 41 56 40 61 / 50 70 20 0
CAPULIN......................... 36 66 28 54 / 0 20 5 0
RATON........................... 31 68 30 60 / 0 30 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 31 70 31 63 / 0 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 65 33 61 / 10 40 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 75 36 56 / 0 20 10 0
ROY............................. 38 69 36 59 / 10 20 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 40 77 41 66 / 20 30 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 71 42 65 / 30 30 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 78 39 65 / 10 20 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 47 77 42 64 / 20 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 45 77 42 66 / 20 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 75 43 67 / 30 40 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 46 74 46 73 / 30 40 10 0
PICACHO......................... 43 68 46 68 / 30 50 10 0
ELK............................. 40 64 42 68 / 30 60 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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