972
FXUS65 KABQ 021843
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1243 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. RECORD HEAT LIKELY ON
MONDAY IN MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION AIDED BY A NORTHERLY JET STREAK HAS PUSHED
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO AND DRY AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SPARSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY AUGUST. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, WITH LESSER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL MAKE IT A HOT, SUNNY DAY IN MOST AREAS, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING DAILY RECORDS.
THE CENTER OF THE MONSOON HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY,
CENTERING ITSELF OVER WESTERN NM. IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRY AIR
WITH IT SO SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED ONCE
AGAIN. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 595 DAM AT THE MOST,
BUT THE DRIER AIR (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S) WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUITE A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK DAILY RECORDS IN
ALBUQUERQUE, SANTA FE, LOS ALAMOS, AND FARMINGTON AMONG OTHERS ON
MONDAY. REMARKABLY, AUGUST RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED IN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE AS WELL. MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM
WILL HAVE MAJOR HEATRISK AND SO HEAT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF THESE AREAS. DESPITE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S, HEAT ADVISORIES
WERE NOT ISSUED FOR EASTERN NM, WHERE THE CRITERIA IS A TAD HIGHER.
THE DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION,
SO MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL OFF NICELY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN NM ON TUESDAY WHERE
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN THREATEN RECORDS. IT WILL BE A TAD COOLER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT.
MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MONSOON HIGH
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST MID TO LATE WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR MODEST MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND UP SLIGHTLY, WITH SCATTERED
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. PWATS AT KABQ WILL HOLD STEADY RIGHT AROUND
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE (~0.9"), WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WHERE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW RECORD LEVELS, BUT IT WILL STILL REMAIN
HOT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO MAY PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE LOW. STORMS WILL MOVE
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE MONSOON HIGH SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING UNUSUALLY DRY AIR INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE,
WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOTTER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF MONSOON SEASON.
ISOLATED STORMS TODAY AND MONDAY BECOME SCATTERED TUESDAY ONWARD.
THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MOST
DAYS, WITH MUCH SPOTTIER WETTING RAINFALL IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 101 64 101 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 56 96 56 97 / 10 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 95 61 94 / 10 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 60 97 60 96 / 0 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 58 92 58 92 / 5 5 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 61 96 61 95 / 5 5 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 62 93 61 92 / 5 5 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 66 93 65 93 / 5 10 10 20
DATIL........................... 59 90 60 90 / 20 20 20 40
RESERVE......................... 60 97 60 96 / 10 30 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 63 100 64 99 / 30 40 20 70
CHAMA........................... 55 90 55 90 / 10 10 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 92 66 91 / 10 20 0 30
PECOS........................... 59 95 60 90 / 10 10 5 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 92 56 89 / 10 10 5 40
RED RIVER....................... 50 83 50 81 / 10 5 5 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 87 42 82 / 10 10 10 70
TAOS............................ 60 95 60 93 / 10 10 5 30
MORA............................ 56 93 56 86 / 10 20 10 60
ESPANOLA........................ 67 100 67 98 / 10 10 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 62 95 62 92 / 10 10 0 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 63 97 63 95 / 10 10 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 101 69 98 / 10 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 101 72 99 / 10 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 104 70 101 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 103 71 100 / 5 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 69 103 69 101 / 0 0 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 69 104 69 101 / 10 0 0 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 103 67 100 / 0 0 5 5
CORRALES........................ 69 104 70 101 / 10 0 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 103 66 100 / 0 0 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 68 100 69 97 / 10 5 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 103 71 100 / 10 0 0 10
SOCORRO......................... 73 104 73 103 / 0 0 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 96 65 91 / 10 5 0 30
TIJERAS......................... 65 97 65 94 / 10 0 0 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 98 63 94 / 10 5 5 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 99 58 95 / 10 5 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 95 63 89 / 20 10 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 97 64 94 / 5 10 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 94 63 93 / 5 5 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 94 70 96 / 0 10 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 62 87 63 88 / 0 20 0 30
CAPULIN......................... 60 93 59 82 / 10 30 20 40
RATON........................... 56 97 57 88 / 10 30 20 50
SPRINGER........................ 57 99 58 90 / 10 20 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 95 58 88 / 10 20 10 30
CLAYTON......................... 66 100 67 90 / 0 10 20 5
ROY............................. 64 98 65 89 / 10 20 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 70 103 71 98 / 10 5 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 102 68 96 / 10 10 20 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 104 71 100 / 5 0 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 68 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 102 72 100 / 5 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 104 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 67 98 68 97 / 0 20 5 0
ELK............................. 63 93 63 94 / 0 20 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-205.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
211-212-217>221.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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