133
FXUS65 KABQ 282359 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 548 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES
AT VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH REMAINS RIGHT OVERHEAD OF NM TODAY, AND AS SUCH, WE
ARE SEEING BOTH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AND ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THIS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING, GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE HIGH ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN THAT, AND PWATS REMAINING ABOVE 1", THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE
A FEW AREAS WITHIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH: THE PECOS
WILDERNESS EAST OF SANTA FE, NORTHEAST NM NEAR/EAST OF RATON, AND
HIGHLY SATURATED/SENSITIVE AREAS NEAR GALLUP AND ZUNI PUEBLO. REFS
AND HREF LPMM GUIDANCE HAS FOCUSED ON THE PECOS RIVER AREA EAST OF
SANTA FE FOR LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE 2", AND THIS ALREADY SEEMS
TO BE PLAYING OUT WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT AS
OF 1PM. THIS STORM IS ALSO TRAVERSING DOWN THE BASIN, WHICH MAY
COMPOUND THE EFFECTS OF FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SHOULD THIS STORM
DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST, URBAN FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN
NEAR SANTA FE. IN NORTHEAST NM, STORMS FIRING OFF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CLUSTER AND PUSH TO AND EAST OF
RATON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REFS AND HREF LPMM
AGAIN PING THIS AREA FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THOUGH THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF IT (REFS BEING NORTH OF HIGHWAY
64/87, HREF BEING SOUTH). NEVERTHELESS, HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SOIL BEING
RELATIVELY DRY, TOO MUCH RAIN TOO QUICKLY CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES. FOR THE ZUNI PUEBLO AND GALLUP AREA, STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS
THROUGH 9PM, AND LINGERING SHOWERS THEREAFTER. THESE LOCATIONS
REMAIN VERY SENSITIVE FROM PREVIOUS FLOODING EVENTS AND IMPACTS, SO
IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH RAINFALL TO PRODUCE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THAT
REGION. OVERALL, THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY
9PM, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AT LEAST.
THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWS A 500MB HEIGHT OF 5971M, WHICH PUTS IT
NEAR THE DAILY RECORD 500MB HEIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE REASON FOR OUR
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES OUT THERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT TODAY, MAINLY FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS IN CENTRAL,
NORTHWEST, AND EASTERN NM. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS AS MUCH OF THE ZONE IS FORECAST TO HIT
OR EXCEED THEIR CRITERIA (95F). DUE TO THE WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
(MID TO HIGH 70S) ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAJOR TO LOCALLY EXTREME
HEAT RISK IS LIKELY FOR AREAS NEAR SOCORRO AND ROSWELL TODAY, SO
EVERYONE WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS WHEN SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
TODAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, NOT MUCH CHANGES IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A DECAMETER OR TWO, THEREFORE
LOWERING TEMPERATURES JUST A TOUCH. EVEN SO, HIGH 90S TO LOW 100S
WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR TO
LOCALLY EXTREME HEAT RISK WILL PERSIST. HOWEVER, AT LEAST WITH THIS
PACKAGE, WILL NOT GO WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT FORECAST TO GET TO CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, SO WHILE THERE WILL BE HOT TEMPERATURES WITH WARM LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT RISK, WE WILL NOT GO WITH AN
ADVISORY. THE MESSAGE OF HEAT SAFETY CONTINUES THOUGH.
A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO ROUND THE HIGH AND PUSH THROUGH CO, PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND PUSHING THEM
OFF INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AREA THAT PART
OF THE STATE RECEIVES TODAY (TUESDAY), FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ROLLING
OFF THE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, STORM COVERAGE DECREASES A BIT
COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ON THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, SO THE OVERALL MESSAGE MAY SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD WHEN
TALKING ABOUT STORM CHANCES AND HOT TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS CO SOMETIME ON THURSDAY (WHICH MAY BE AMPLIFIED
BY THE MCV THAT WAS OVER AZ THIS MORNING) AND HELP PRODUCE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO NORTHEAST NM FOR
THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN WORKS TO PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE MORE TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL WORK TO SHIFT THE OVERALL
FLOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER MUCH OF NM. IN TURN, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FAVOR THIS STORM MOTION, AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR FOLKS
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO SEE A BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION, WHILE POTENTIALLY GIVING A REPRIEVE TO FOLKS
IN WESTERN NM THAT HAVE SEEN CONSISTENT RAIN. THROUGHOUT EVERY DAY
THOUGH, THE HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW
100S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG AND IN BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERAL STORMS
HAVE TURNED STRONG AND ARE PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH NEW STORMS REDEVELOPING NEARBY THROUGH THE MID
EVENING, BUT THE COVERAGE AND NUMBER OF STORMS SHOULD STEADILY
DECREASE INTO THE LATE EVENING. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
SURVIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE MORE SPARSE AND ISOLATED, AND NOT
QUITE AS STRONG OR VIGOROUS AS NOW. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BEING THE AREA MOST PRONE TO STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WILL CONTINUE, POSING POOR AIRCRAFT
PERFORMANCE FOR SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEAST NM. MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH CORRELATES TO
THE FORECAST MIXING HEIGHTS REMAINING WELL ABOVE 10,000FT ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN NM, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A
LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 69 97 68 98 / 10 5 20 0
DULCE........................... 59 93 55 93 / 50 40 50 10
CUBA............................ 63 91 61 91 / 50 20 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 61 92 61 93 / 50 20 20 10
EL MORRO........................ 59 88 59 89 / 60 40 20 30
GRANTS.......................... 62 92 62 92 / 70 40 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 60 88 60 90 / 50 50 30 20
MAGDALENA....................... 66 91 68 92 / 50 20 10 40
DATIL........................... 61 87 62 88 / 50 30 20 30
RESERVE......................... 60 94 60 94 / 30 30 20 40
GLENWOOD........................ 65 98 64 99 / 20 10 20 20
CHAMA........................... 56 86 54 86 / 50 50 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 90 67 90 / 70 30 40 30
PECOS........................... 61 90 61 91 / 70 20 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 87 59 87 / 50 50 60 20
RED RIVER....................... 52 77 51 78 / 60 50 60 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 82 49 83 / 60 50 60 30
TAOS............................ 59 90 58 91 / 50 30 50 20
MORA............................ 58 86 57 88 / 70 50 60 40
ESPANOLA........................ 67 97 66 96 / 60 20 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 65 91 66 92 / 60 10 30 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 94 64 95 / 60 10 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 97 71 99 / 60 5 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 98 69 99 / 60 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 100 68 100 / 60 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 99 71 99 / 60 5 30 5
BELEN........................... 70 101 69 101 / 60 0 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 99 70 100 / 60 5 30 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 100 67 100 / 60 5 20 0
CORRALES........................ 71 100 70 100 / 60 5 30 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 100 69 100 / 60 0 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 96 69 97 / 60 5 30 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 99 70 99 / 60 5 30 5
SOCORRO......................... 73 102 74 102 / 50 5 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 64 91 65 92 / 70 10 30 5
TIJERAS......................... 65 92 65 94 / 70 10 30 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 63 94 62 94 / 60 10 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 61 95 59 96 / 60 10 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 90 61 92 / 50 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 94 62 94 / 50 10 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 94 63 94 / 30 5 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 97 68 98 / 10 5 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 65 88 63 89 / 5 10 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 59 87 58 89 / 70 60 50 50
RATON........................... 59 91 58 94 / 60 70 50 60
SPRINGER........................ 61 94 59 95 / 70 60 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 90 59 91 / 60 30 40 40
CLAYTON......................... 66 96 67 99 / 60 20 40 30
ROY............................. 64 93 64 95 / 50 20 40 30
CONCHAS......................... 70 102 69 104 / 40 5 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 99 67 100 / 20 5 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 103 71 104 / 20 5 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 102 69 101 / 5 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 71 103 70 101 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 102 70 103 / 5 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 66 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ204>209-211>215-
218-221-227>230-241.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-217-219>221-
234>238.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...52
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