411
FXUS65 KABQ 222311 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
411 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 411 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTS WITH NUMEROUS HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS CHALLENGED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL MAKE A LONG AWAITED RETURN LATE ON
CHRISTMAS EVE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THEN SPREAD EAST
INTO FAR NORTH CENTRAL AREAS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED
BELOW 9,000FT WITH ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOW RELEGATED TO
THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
YESTERDAY THERE WERE 10 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BROKEN ACROSS NEW
MEXICO WITH A PERIOD OF RECORD OF 30 YEARS OR MORE. LET'S SET THE
OVER/UNDER FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AT 11.5.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A TAD COOLER IF YOU WANT TO CALL IT THAT SO
THE OVER/UNDER FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS SET AT 9.5. ALL
KIDDING ASIDE, THE POINT BEING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND. BOTH THE NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPEAN
EFS SHOW 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HEIGHTS DO EVENTUALLY DROP
OFF AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES OVER TX AND LA BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THE NET EFFECT IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GO
FROM 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME AREAS TO MAYBE 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IT IS NOT UNTIL
THE WEEKEND THAT TEMPERATURES BECOME NEAR NORMAL TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. YES INDEED A "REAL" COOL DOWN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
TEMPERATURE TRENDS BASED ON UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGES HAS ALREADY
BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BUT TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO BE IMPACTED BY AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE US THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. THIS SETS UP INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT THAT
WILL ADVECT LARGE AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NM FROM
THE PACIFIC. SO THAT RIGHT THERE IS ONE INGREDIENT FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT INGREDIENT THAT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE IS
INSTABILITY AND WELL THERE WILL NOT BE ANY CHANCES FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE WITH THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE. NOW WE
JUST NEED SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL CERTAINLY
HELP WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SO THERE IS THAT. UNFORTUNATELY MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND QG DYNAMICS STAY NW OF NEW MEXICO. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SHOW A STRONG 120-140KT JET THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY BUT NEW MEXICO REMAINS ON THE ANTI-
CYCLONIC SIDE OF THAT WITH MARGINAL IF ANY LARGE SCALE LIFT. SO
WHAT HAPPENS TO ALL THIS MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE? BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS A LOT OF IT GOES TOWARDS
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND NOT MUCH REACHES THE
GROUND. GIVEN SOME TIME, PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE GROUND BUT
NOT AT THE RATE OR AMOUNTS WE WOULD GET IN NEW MEXICO IF THERE WAS
LARGE SCALE LIFT. AS SUCH THE FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME LOW END
PRECIPITATION CHANGES STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. FREEZING LEVELS STICK
AROUND 9000 TO 10000 FEET ELEVATIONS SO REALLY ONLY THE PEAKS OF
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE WINTER IMPACTS AND
MINIMAL AT THAT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED DUE TO MORE OF THE
MODEL ENSEMBLES COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE
FLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ENSEMBLES WERE SPLIT IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING ONE GROUP WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY THE EC ENSEMBLES WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLES MAKING UP THE OTHER CLUSTER WITH A CLOSED LOW. 12Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS SHOW A SHIFT IN THE EC CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
THE AI MODELS ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. IT SEEMS THAT SECOND CLUSTER
FROM THE 00Z MODEL ENSEMBLE WILL BECOME THE FAVORED CLUSTER FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS MEANS MOISTURE DECREASES AFTER
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. NBM FORECAST DATA WILL NEED
TO DO SOME CATCHING UP TO THIS SCENARIO BUT THERE IS TIME TO DO SO
GIVEN LIMITED IF ANY WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
39
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 411 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST MON DEC 22 2025
ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TOMORROW MAINLY OVER EASTERN NM WHERE MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROP TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AND FUELS ARE ON THE MOIST SIDE UNDERSTANDING THAT IT
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR FINE FUELS TO GET GOING WITH AN IGNITION.
WITH THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE MIDWEEK AND THE END OF THE WEEK AREAS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ARE NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 33 64 40 60 / 0 0 10 10
DULCE........................... 23 64 29 56 / 0 0 5 30
CUBA............................ 31 62 36 59 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 25 66 32 58 / 0 0 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 33 65 36 57 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 27 67 32 62 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 31 66 36 59 / 0 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 38 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 33 64 39 59 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 28 71 32 62 / 0 0 10 40
GLENWOOD........................ 33 76 36 67 / 0 0 10 40
CHAMA........................... 28 58 30 51 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 59 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 37 64 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 60 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 53 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 60 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 25 63 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 36 68 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 66 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 39 62 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 65 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 34 67 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 37 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 29 66 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 36 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 30 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 36 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 63 43 62 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 36 64 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 62 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 63 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 33 66 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 66 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 66 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 67 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 31 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 28 69 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 69 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 40 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 76 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 74 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 77 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 76 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 77 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 35 75 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 34 74 36 75 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 40 77 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 78 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...71
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