552
FXUS65 KABQ 251739 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS
TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (60-70%) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH FORK, SALT AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE (40-60%)
RISK ON TUESDAY.
- GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. A STRAY SEVERE
STORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
BRING ON THE RAIN -- JUST NOT TOO MUCH IN VULNERABLE PLACES. TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK WET AND WE HOPE IT WILL PUT A
DENT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER THIS WEEK, BUT IT ALSO BRINGS
CONCERNS ABOUT BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE SHAPE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOCAL AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
EVIDENT OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SE AZ AND THESE SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, GRADUALLY MOVING
FURTHER INTO NM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD. WESTERN NM
WILL BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NOON HOUR, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN COINCIDENT WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING. WITH PWATS INCREASING, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT, IT'S STILL EXPECTED THAT THE
00Z ABQ SOUNDING WILL BE NEAR A RECORD PWAT FOR THE DATE/TIME. AS
THE ATMOSPHERE GETS WORKED OVER BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AND
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SATURATED AND STABLE, THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD WANE AND GOOD SOAKING RAINS WILL PREVAIL.
IT'S EXPECTED THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EVENTUALLY
FOCUSING OVER EASTERN NM. AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION, IF ANY, ACROSS
EASTERN NM BEFORE TUESDAY'S ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS. THAT
SAID, THERE IS STILL CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP TUESDAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER, BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL DESTABILIZE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN, IT'S LIKELY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THERE INITIALLY, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTDVD,
THEN STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THEY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS EASTERN NM. MODEST MLCAPE AND SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND SOUTH OF I-40.
WHILE MOST OF US ARE READY FOR SOME RAIN, IT DOES INCREASE
CONCERNS FOR FLOODING AROUND RECENT BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING THE SOUTH FORK AND SEVEN CABINS BURN
SCARS, AS WELL AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS FROM ANY RAINFALL ON THE
SALT BURN SCAR. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ON TAP THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON, AND THIS STORM MOTION GENERALLY KEEPS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OFF THE SOUTH FORK BURN SCAR FOR STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER SIERRA BLANCA. HOWEVER, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT BE AS
FAVORABLE FOR THE SEVEN CABINS FIRE AS ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
OVER THE CAPITAN MTNS WILL SHIFT OVER THE BURN SCAR IN THE SAME
DIRECTION THAT THE WATER WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CANYONS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE BURN SCARS BETWEEN
5PM AND 8PM, THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY GIVEN
AFOREMENTIONED EXPECTED SATURATION AND STABILIZATION. NONETHELESS,
REPEATED ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MAY CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN IF NO FLOODING OCCURS, THIS WILL
PRIME THE AREA FOR TUESDAY WHEN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY
HEAVY, IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
STORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RATHER QUIET AFTER
THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
ON WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN SAGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE PACNW WILL REACH CENTRAL CA/WESTERN NV. A DRY SLOT
ROUNDING THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND STRONG
MIXING WILL ERODE ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DROP DEWPOINTS INTO
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
WILL ALSO RETURN. MEANWHILE, THE MOISTURE WILL NOT FULLY MIX OUT
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE TEXAS BORDER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DIURNALLY SLOSH BACK
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM ON THURSDAY AS THE NOW DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW MOVES LITTLE.
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER EASTERN NM WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, BUT AN ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OVER NM AND SPARK MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN NM. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
THE WEEKEND, BUT WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT, LIMITING FORCING
FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY COULD
SPARK NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AND SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DETERIORATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF AIRSPACE BETWEEN 20-00Z, WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC
WIND LIKELY IN ADDITION TO SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. RAIN WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT KROW, WHERE MVFR
CONDTIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT LOW PROBABILITIES FOR IFR
EXIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION REMAINS ON TAP FOR TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO MISS OUT ON WETTING PRECIPITATION
REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT SOME AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NM COULD
SEE OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EACH AFTERNOON, BUT PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY HELP
MITIGATE CONCERNS. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR REACHING SPOTTY
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WOULD BE THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH THE LEAST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY.
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, THEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
COULD BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 77 50 77 47 / 80 40 30 5
DULCE........................... 72 42 72 38 / 100 70 50 10
CUBA............................ 72 42 71 42 / 90 60 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 64 40 74 39 / 90 50 20 5
EL MORRO........................ 58 42 71 41 / 100 80 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 66 41 75 40 / 100 70 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 62 43 73 41 / 100 70 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 70 48 72 48 / 90 70 50 20
DATIL........................... 62 44 70 44 / 100 70 20 10
RESERVE......................... 69 40 79 39 / 90 30 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 75 43 84 44 / 90 20 10 5
CHAMA........................... 67 40 66 37 / 100 70 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 50 68 49 / 100 60 60 30
PECOS........................... 71 44 67 42 / 100 70 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 46 66 43 / 100 50 70 30
RED RIVER....................... 55 40 57 36 / 100 70 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 67 37 62 33 / 90 70 70 30
TAOS............................ 74 46 69 41 / 80 60 50 30
MORA............................ 71 46 63 41 / 100 80 70 40
ESPANOLA........................ 80 50 75 48 / 90 60 40 20
SANTA FE........................ 73 49 69 47 / 100 70 50 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 48 72 46 / 100 60 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 54 77 53 / 100 60 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 52 78 52 / 100 60 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 51 81 51 / 100 60 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 52 79 52 / 90 60 40 20
BELEN........................... 82 48 80 49 / 90 60 40 20
BERNALILLO...................... 81 52 79 51 / 100 60 30 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 47 80 48 / 90 60 40 20
CORRALES........................ 82 51 80 51 / 100 60 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 47 80 48 / 90 60 40 20
PLACITAS........................ 79 53 74 52 / 100 60 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 52 79 52 / 90 60 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 79 54 82 54 / 80 60 60 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 49 71 47 / 100 70 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 75 49 72 48 / 100 70 40 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 48 71 44 / 100 70 50 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 42 72 40 / 90 70 50 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 46 66 44 / 100 70 50 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 46 72 44 / 100 70 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 46 70 45 / 90 70 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 52 73 51 / 80 70 50 20
RUIDOSO......................... 73 48 66 47 / 70 80 70 20
CAPULIN......................... 74 44 64 42 / 0 60 70 40
RATON........................... 77 46 68 44 / 10 60 70 20
SPRINGER........................ 80 48 68 44 / 5 70 60 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 47 64 44 / 80 80 60 30
CLAYTON......................... 81 51 71 49 / 0 30 50 30
ROY............................. 76 49 66 47 / 0 70 70 40
CONCHAS......................... 85 53 73 51 / 10 80 70 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 52 69 49 / 20 80 70 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 54 74 51 / 30 70 80 30
CLOVIS.......................... 84 54 72 51 / 5 90 80 30
PORTALES........................ 85 54 72 51 / 50 90 80 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 53 73 51 / 40 90 70 30
ROSWELL......................... 90 58 75 55 / 0 80 50 20
PICACHO......................... 84 52 72 48 / 10 80 70 20
ELK............................. 78 48 72 46 / 40 80 60 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page