519
FXUS65 KABQ 111743 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE EAST AS WELL.
- GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN COME BACK AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BUT FUELS MAY
NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD DUE TO RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY
AND TODAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY HAS BEEN TRIMMED OUT
OF THE CWA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AND TREND DOWN
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE
FOR LARGE HAIL TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA AS
STORMS CLUSTER TOGETHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM AS WEST COAST TROUGHING
PERSISTS AND BOTH GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL TREND UP SOME TODAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD
OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL LOW RACING EAST TOWARD NORTHERN CA. THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING IMPROVED SHEAR TO MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY, AS HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROVIDE INCREASED SURFACE-
BASED INSTABILITY. THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR THE TX BORDER, WITH A LARGER MARGINAL
RISK THAT INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
BOTH THE LATEST HRRR AND HREF SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH VERY
LITTLE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER, LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THE
CROP WILL JUST BE HIGH-BASED AND FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
TO 40-50MPH VS WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
IN RUIDOSO IS NON-ZERO AGAIN TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN
IMPROVED STORM MOTION OF 25-35MPH AND ALL OF THE LATEST MODELING
IS FAVORING AREAS EAST OF TOWN. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ACROSS EASTERN NM DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. PWATS WILL TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A DRY SLOT PIVOTS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER CA. A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT LATE SUNDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CA IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND EJECT EAST
ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON MON/TUE, BRINGING
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS, BUT ATMOSPHERIC MIXING ON
MONDAY COULD BE LIMITED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM DUE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD PICK UP
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS A LOW TO TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR
WIND SPEEDS TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHERN NM BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WED/THU AND
WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS, BUT STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST FROM DRY MICROBURSTS. CONVECTION
DECREASES IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z, BUT IT WILL LIKELY STAY ACTIVE
THROUGH AROUND 06Z IN FAR EASTERN NM.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR IN MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, EVEN
DURING STORMS. MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST WILL ERODE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP. DRY AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT SHOULD PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT SAT APR 11 2026
HIGHER HUMIDITY IS IN PLACE AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WETTING
STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY, WITH DRIER (<0.10")
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BUT MORE LIKELY BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DRYING IS
FORECAST SUNDAY, WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, WETTING RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY INTO TODAY WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN NM WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
THE EXCEPTION IS CLOSER TO THE AZ BORDER IN THE WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, WHERE RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOVES OVER THE REGION. AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS, BUT WILL NEED TO
ASSESS ERCS TO GET A BETTER FEEL. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WARMING AND DRYING IS FORECAST FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH
MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 41 72 42 / 20 10 5 0
DULCE........................... 65 30 67 31 / 60 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 65 35 68 38 / 50 30 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 68 32 67 32 / 10 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 36 65 34 / 30 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 33 70 33 / 30 10 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 67 36 / 30 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 70 43 71 46 / 20 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 67 38 65 39 / 20 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 71 33 70 34 / 10 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 76 37 75 37 / 10 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 58 30 59 31 / 80 20 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 66 43 66 44 / 60 40 10 0
PECOS........................... 65 38 67 38 / 60 50 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 37 63 36 / 70 20 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 53 33 53 31 / 70 30 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 26 60 26 / 50 40 5 5
TAOS............................ 67 32 67 32 / 60 30 5 0
MORA............................ 64 37 66 36 / 60 40 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 73 40 73 40 / 50 40 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 67 43 67 43 / 50 40 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 41 70 42 / 50 40 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 49 75 51 / 40 40 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 47 77 49 / 40 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 45 80 49 / 40 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 48 77 51 / 40 30 5 0
BELEN........................... 78 43 80 47 / 30 30 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 76 47 78 50 / 40 30 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 42 80 46 / 40 30 5 0
CORRALES........................ 77 47 79 50 / 40 30 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 77 43 79 48 / 40 30 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 73 48 73 50 / 50 40 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 48 77 51 / 40 30 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 79 47 81 52 / 20 20 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 68 44 69 46 / 50 40 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 70 44 71 46 / 40 40 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 42 72 42 / 50 40 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 38 73 38 / 50 40 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 41 69 40 / 50 40 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 69 42 72 43 / 40 30 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 68 43 70 45 / 40 20 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 49 72 49 / 40 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 46 65 45 / 60 30 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 62 38 67 36 / 60 40 0 0
RATON........................... 66 35 71 34 / 50 30 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 69 37 73 36 / 60 30 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 40 69 39 / 70 40 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 68 48 77 46 / 70 40 0 0
ROY............................. 64 43 72 42 / 80 50 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 73 48 81 48 / 70 50 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 48 77 49 / 70 40 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 51 83 49 / 70 40 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 52 82 49 / 80 50 10 0
PORTALES........................ 71 51 82 49 / 80 50 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 48 81 49 / 80 40 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 53 85 53 / 70 40 5 0
PICACHO......................... 70 50 77 50 / 70 30 0 0
ELK............................. 68 46 74 46 / 70 40 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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