106
FXUS65 KABQ 180650
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1250 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS THRU FAR EASTERN NM WILL RESULT FROM
STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH
EARLY THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES.
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR A FEW SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON RECENT BURN SCARS FRIDAY NEAR RUIDOSO.
- A MODERATE HEAT RISK REMAINS FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EACH DAY WHERE HIGHS WILL REGULARLY FLIRT
WITH 100F. THIS RISK RETURNS TO EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
FAIRLY MUNDANE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT,
WITH A LONG MERIDIONAL TROUGHING PATTERN STILL SETUP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN WILL SEND DOWN A POTENT
COLD FRONT THRU EASTERN NM LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
SURFACE PRESSURE INCREASES HIGHLIGHTED BY A 3HR 4-5MB MSLP INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN NM BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GUSTY
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING 35 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE TX
BORDER. CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES REMAIN THE FAVORED SPOT FOR THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.
THE COLD FRONT BANKS UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VERY WELCOMED CAA BRINGING
TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FACT FORECAST TO FALL 15F TO 25F INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS EASTERN NM, STAYING HOT IN THE 80S AND 90S ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOWER ELEVATIONS AT AND SOUTH OF
ABQ TO SOCORRO WILL FLIRT WITH THE 100F MARK AGAIN.
MEANWHILE, INCREASED MOISTURE AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP
SPARK A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY. ANY OF THESE
STORMS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR AND STEERING
FLOW OVER THE STATE, CONTINUING ON AS SECONDARY UPDRAFTS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIRES
CAMS ARE HINTING AT A CONGLOMERATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NM IN THE EVENING, MIGRATING NORTHWARD EAST OF ROSWELL
AND TOWARD PORTALES. POPS WERE BUMPED UP OVER THE NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THURSDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SANTA FE
AND ALBUQUERQUE THURSDAY EVENING AS WELL.
FRIDAY SEES MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S. THE HEAT
REMAINS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF 90S AND FLIRTATIONS WITH 100F FROM ALBUQUERQUE SOUTHWARD TO
SOCORRO. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN TRY TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE WEEKEND BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH DRIER WESTERLIES
ADVANCING BACK THRU CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM, PUSHING THE DRYLINE
EASTWARD TOWARD TX. HIGHS THRU EASTERN NM CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S,
FLIRTING WITH 100 IN ROSWELL, STAYING FAIRLY CONSISTENT FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IF ANYWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
SEES FURTHER HEATING THRU EASTERN NM FROM DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING RESULTING FROM WESTERLIES PUSHING ALL THE WAY TO AND PAST
THE TX STATE LINE. HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE LOW 100S BUILD NORTHWARD
THRU EASTERN NM TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY SEES A REBOOT OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WHAT IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS. A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
SOUTHWARD THRU EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING
A SHARP COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S MOST AREAS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WITH LESS POTENTIAL
FURTHER SOUTH. MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO'S LOOK TO PROVIDE A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND STRONG TO PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THRU NORTHEASTERN NM.
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHEASTERN NM
MONDAY EVENING WILL HELP ADVANCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A BUILDING
596DM H5 HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL BRING MODEST WESTERLIES
ALOFT PUSHING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT SAID
MOISTURE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION STILL FAVORING AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. THE BUILDING 596DM HIGH, THE SEASON'S FIRST NOTABLE
RENDITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH, BRINGS IN INCREASED HEAT INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NM WITH LOW 100S FROM GLENWOOD TO SOCORRO TO
ALBUQUERQUE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
LLWS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED OR MAINTAINED MENTION OF THIS AT NEARLY ALL
TAF SITES TONIGHT, FOCUSING OUT OF THE NW AT 40-50KTS. OTHERWISE,
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS PUSHED NORTHWARD TO KABQ TO KGNT THIS PAST
HOUR BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30KTS. THIS HAS A
MODERATE CHANCE OF REACHING KSAF BY 08Z OR SO, BUT AT LESSER WIND
SPEEDS. WESTERLY WINDS ATOP THE MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN SOCORRO
COUNTY, REACHING OVER TO KONM WILL ALSO STAY ELEVATED PAST THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR. ELSEWHERE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40+ KTS THRU
EASTERN NM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH WESTWARD UP TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THURSDAY, BECOMING THE IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE. HAVE INCLUDED A
GENERIC VCSH AT KSAF AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE, WILL NEED TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS PUSHING THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO KABQ AND KSAF THURSDAY EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO AND
GUADALUPE MTS ALSO HAVE A MINOR (< 20% CHANCE) OF IMPACTING KROW
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
OFFICIAL TAF THERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1244 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
WESTERN NM: DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY RFTI'S
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 5 ALONGSIDE VERY DRY FUELS
HIGHLIGHTED BY ERCS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SEE SOME BRIEF RELIEF IN THE
FORM OF INCREASED HUMIDITY FRIDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNINGS WHEN
COLD FRONTS ACROSS EASTERN NM ADVANCE THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
EASTERN NM: A POTENT COLD FRONT BRINGS A STRONG NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING, HIGHLIGHTED BY GUSTY WINDS OF
35 TO 50 MPH. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK 15F TO 25F WHILE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. DRIER WESTERLIES ADVANCE INTO THE HIGHLANDS FRIDAY, AND TO
THE TX BORDER THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS AGAIN CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
AND LOW 100S. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY RETURNS BEHIND
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY WILL FOCUS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S, EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 99 59 98 60 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 93 48 93 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 92 57 91 59 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 94 55 92 50 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 88 56 87 53 / 10 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 93 55 92 54 / 5 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 86 56 87 55 / 5 10 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 89 62 89 63 / 10 10 10 0
DATIL........................... 85 58 86 58 / 20 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 89 50 92 50 / 30 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 92 54 96 54 / 50 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 86 46 85 49 / 0 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 61 86 63 / 5 5 20 0
PECOS........................... 89 54 89 56 / 10 20 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 56 86 57 / 5 5 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 76 45 78 46 / 10 10 30 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 42 80 42 / 10 5 40 5
TAOS............................ 88 53 89 52 / 5 5 20 0
MORA............................ 82 52 84 54 / 20 5 40 10
ESPANOLA........................ 96 60 95 62 / 0 5 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 90 60 89 61 / 10 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 57 93 60 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 65 96 68 / 5 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 66 97 67 / 5 10 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 63 100 66 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 65 98 68 / 0 5 5 0
BELEN........................... 99 63 99 64 / 0 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 100 64 99 67 / 0 10 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 61 98 63 / 0 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 99 65 99 68 / 0 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 63 98 65 / 0 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 63 94 66 / 5 10 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 65 98 68 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 100 68 100 68 / 5 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 60 91 63 / 10 10 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 92 60 92 63 / 10 10 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 57 92 60 / 10 20 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 53 93 55 / 10 20 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 54 87 57 / 10 20 30 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 56 92 60 / 20 20 20 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 88 57 91 60 / 20 20 20 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 92 63 93 65 / 30 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 55 83 59 / 30 20 60 0
CAPULIN......................... 75 50 83 53 / 0 5 50 20
RATON........................... 82 52 87 53 / 10 10 40 10
SPRINGER........................ 82 54 88 55 / 10 5 40 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 53 86 55 / 20 5 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 73 54 84 60 / 0 5 10 20
ROY............................. 77 55 84 58 / 0 5 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 83 59 92 63 / 0 0 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 82 59 90 61 / 0 0 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 61 89 66 / 5 5 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 79 61 87 63 / 5 20 5 20
PORTALES........................ 83 61 88 64 / 5 20 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 61 91 64 / 5 5 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 95 65 94 67 / 5 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 89 60 91 62 / 10 10 30 0
ELK............................. 87 58 89 59 / 20 10 60 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO NOON MDT TODAY FOR
NMZ235-236.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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