961
FXUS65 KABQ 292350 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 524 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- GUSTY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN FAR WESTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY STORMS MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE
STARTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL, BUT LIGHT, RAIN AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDENESDAY.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER THIS WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-50%) CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE SOME TODAY WITH THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTING FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF NM.
STILL, A PLETHORA OF NEAR TO RECORD-BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE WORKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS ARE STILL 1 TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MARCH. OUR LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL REAPPEAR EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING
TO DOWNSLOPING AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHILE
A WESTERLY COMPONENT PREVAILS IN WESTERN ZONES AS WELL. A SUBTLE AND
ILL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING TOWARD THE BAJA, AND MID TO HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRECEDING IT AND WORKING TOWARD WESTERN NM. THIS
HAS ALREADY TRANSPIRED INTO HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND EVEN LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION OVER SONORA, CHIHUAHUA, AND AZ OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS,
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO CREEP INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ODDS OF OBSERVING LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
QUITE LOW, SO THE MENTION OF DRY STORMS/LIGHTNING WERE KEPT OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES ON MONDAY. BROKEN CIRRUS AND
SCATTERED MID LEVEL ALTOCU/ALTOSTRATUS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD
AND RELATIVELY WARM TONIGHT.
THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ON MONDAY (~997-999 MB), AND 700
MB WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 25 KT. THIS WILL INCREASE
SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY WITH PROGNOSTICATIONS OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING
ON MONDAY, EVEN WITH PERIODIC BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER AS THE
BAJA TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND OTHER
SOUTHERN CHAINS OF THE ROCKIES. INCREASED TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES
(LI'S TO 0 OF -3 C) WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
CONGEALING AND DIMINISHING OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. NBM POPS WERE STILL QUITE HIGH, AND THESE WERE REDUCED AND
TEMPERED SLIGHTLY, AS THE FOOTPRINTS OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD
BE QUITE SMALL AND ISOLATED GIVEN THE INVERTED-V PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH LCL'S AND STILL A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGER IMPACTS, AS
EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IS VERY LARGE AND DCAPE VALUES COULD
EXCEED 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN MANY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
IN WESTERN ZONES DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS, BUT ALL
AREAS SHOULD STILL RUN 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN
MILDER/WARMER THAN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TUESDAY, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL GET HELD UP IN UNION COUNTY, NOT MAKING
MUCH HEADWAY INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS POSES SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NM, BUT A FEW TO
SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING DOES LOOK TO IMPACT CLAYTON AND VICINITY.
THIS FRONT WILL DISRUPT THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE, LOWERING WIND
SPEEDS SOME IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHILE BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY
CONDITIONS REDEVELOP ELSEWHERE. THE 700 MB WINDS REACH 25 TO 35 KT
OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHICH WOULD BE A LIKELY SURFACE GUST OUTCOME
TUESDAY. SUBTLE, MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE
WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THIS WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHLAND ZONES BEING THE
MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE OVER NORTHERN NM AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT WILL FAVOR NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. A
DISTINCT THERMAL TROUGH IS PROJECTED WITH THIS FEATURE, INDICATING
IT WILL HAVE MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE BRIEF AND FLEETING. BLENDED QPF
SUGGESTS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WOULD RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.25 INCH
QPF WITH HIGH PEAKS NEAR THE NM-CO BORDER SQUEEZING OUT 0.5 INCH OR
MORE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, TRANSLATING TO A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 9KFT. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM AND NEW
RRFS DO INDICATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT DURING THE
MID DAY TIME FRAME WITH THE RRFS CARRYING ACTIVITY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES. WINDS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE WATCHED,
AS MANY CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES COULD ENCROACH UPON THE 50 MPH
WIND GUST CRITERIA FOR A WIND ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A CLOSED LOW THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES
THURSDAY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY LATE
FRIDAY. WHILE DETAILS CONTINUE TO GET HASHED OUT ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE, IT LOOKS TO CROSS NORTH OF NM, OFFERING A
DRY SLOT OVER NM THURSDAY BEFORE A DRY PACIFIC FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD BUMP UP THURSDAY, ONLY TO START DECREASING
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO NM WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MORE COVERAGE OF VIRGA OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THESE WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST AND BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CONCERNS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL CENTER AROUND NEAR TO RECORD-
BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES, VERY WIDESPREAD LOW HUMIDITY (BUT
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS), WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND
A LOW THREAT FOR GUSTY VIRGA (EVAPORATING RAIN) SHOWERS IN WESTERN
ZONES. THESE CONCERNS WILL FADE THROUGH THE EVENING.
INTO MONDAY, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN NM WITH LOW HUMIDITY BLANKETING EASTERN ZONES CONTRASTED BY
VERY MINOR INCREASES IN WESTERN AREAS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WILL CONTINUE WITH CONFIDENCE LOWERING THAT THE
WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET. IN WESTERN ZONES, AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
GUSTY SHOWERS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL DEVELOP AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE AREA.
ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT MORE, PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN ZONES WITH MORE AREAS PRONE TO OBSERVE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING TO A 15 TO 20% RANGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, SO THIS WILL AGAIN MAKE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MARGINAL WITH HUMIDITY BEING THE LIMITER ON THIS DAY. A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY WITH STORMS
MOVING MORE INTO THE INTERIOR, OR CENTRAL AREAS OF OF NM.
A WINDY PERIOD IS THEN SHAPING UP FOR WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND
FRIDAY WITH OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS VARYING AND CHANGING DAY-BY-DAY.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
ELEVATED ABOVE TRADITIONAL THRESHOLDS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
THIS WILL CHANGE INTO THURSDAY AS A DRY SLOT ALOFT AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP, LIKELY LEADING TO AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NM ZONES. WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN BE COMPLICATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A
DRY PACIFIC FRONT LATE IN THE DAY, AND THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY DICTATE HOW DIRE THE THREAT IS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 78 47 74 / 0 10 20 10
DULCE........................... 33 74 35 70 / 0 10 30 20
CUBA............................ 39 73 40 69 / 0 20 30 20
GALLUP.......................... 36 74 41 71 / 0 30 40 10
EL MORRO........................ 41 69 43 67 / 0 40 40 10
GRANTS.......................... 39 73 41 71 / 0 30 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 43 70 44 70 / 5 40 40 20
MAGDALENA....................... 48 73 48 72 / 5 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 45 69 45 68 / 5 30 30 20
RESERVE......................... 38 75 37 73 / 10 40 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 42 81 42 78 / 10 30 10 30
CHAMA........................... 35 67 35 62 / 0 10 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 71 48 68 / 0 20 20 20
PECOS........................... 41 74 42 71 / 0 10 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 70 40 65 / 0 10 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 36 62 37 58 / 0 10 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 66 36 62 / 0 10 20 30
TAOS............................ 33 74 36 70 / 0 10 20 10
MORA............................ 41 72 42 68 / 0 10 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 41 78 43 75 / 0 10 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 44 74 45 72 / 0 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 77 44 76 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 77 52 76 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 80 53 79 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 82 46 81 / 0 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 81 50 79 / 0 20 20 10
BELEN........................... 44 82 47 81 / 0 20 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 47 81 49 78 / 0 20 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 41 81 44 80 / 0 20 20 10
CORRALES........................ 47 82 49 80 / 0 20 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 81 46 80 / 0 20 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 51 77 51 75 / 0 20 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 80 51 78 / 0 20 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 51 83 51 82 / 5 20 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 73 48 71 / 0 20 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 50 74 48 72 / 0 20 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 46 75 46 73 / 0 10 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 77 40 75 / 0 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 74 44 71 / 0 5 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 76 45 74 / 0 10 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 45 76 46 73 / 0 10 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 81 49 77 / 0 5 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 45 75 46 71 / 0 10 10 10
CAPULIN......................... 39 75 43 68 / 0 5 0 20
RATON........................... 36 79 40 72 / 0 5 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 37 81 41 75 / 0 5 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 77 44 72 / 0 5 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 50 85 53 77 / 5 5 0 10
ROY............................. 45 81 47 75 / 0 5 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 44 89 49 84 / 0 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 84 51 80 / 0 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 91 51 85 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 50 91 52 86 / 0 0 10 5
PORTALES........................ 47 91 49 87 / 0 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 89 48 85 / 0 5 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 49 91 51 89 / 0 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 50 84 50 82 / 0 20 10 10
ELK............................. 47 82 47 79 / 0 20 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34
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