322
FXUS65 KABQ 071129
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 425 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WEST OF THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA, AND THIS
FEATURE REMAINS CUT-OFF FROM THE POLAR JET WITH SLUGGISH MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW IS SPREADING DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING. THE
LOW WILL NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
ARRIVING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NM WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE SHAPE AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
WILL CAUSE INITIAL HYDROMETEORS TO EVAPORATE WITH VIRGA BEING
PREVALENT BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH WITH
ONLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9,500 FT EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SNOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
AMOUNTING TO A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
THROUGH THE EVENING. TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, HENCE THE HIGH SNOW LEVELS. PRECIPITATION IS
MODELED TO WANE AND DISPERSE BY MIDNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITS NM.
INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA
WITH A THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER NM AS FAINT SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. A WEAK
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL FALL UPON THE NM PLAINS, REDUCING
TEMPERATURES BY 3 TO 6 DEGREES, BUT OTHERWISE THE ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH (GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE) WILL PERSIST WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
INTO MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CREEP INTO THE MIDDLE GULF OF CA. A
WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NM WITH
DRY CONDITIONS HOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH. YET ANOTHER
DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL THEN
FINALLY GAIN SOME EASTWARD MOTION, TREKKING ACROSS MEXICO MONDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EJECTING INTO TX ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM,
SETTING TEMPERATURES BACK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO FALL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN INCREASE GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING, SO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE A RETURN. A SIMILAR SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, EXCEPT THAT ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
SLATED TO ENTER NORTHEASTERN NM WHICH COULD DISRUPT THE WIND FIELD
WHILE STILL PRODUCING A NEW AREA OF STRONGER POST FRONTAL WINDS AS
ISOBARS PACK NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR UPSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ALSO BEGINS TO REDUCE THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STRONGER WESTERLIES WOULD BE PRONE TO
INTRODUCE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR TWO WITHIN THE LATE THURSDAY
TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME, BUT TIMING AND ORIENTATION FROM
DETERMINISTIC MODELS STILL HAVE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS THIS FAR OUT.
THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN AMONG THE GEFS/ENS/GEPS SUGGEST A
SINGULAR SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY, AND BLENDED
POP/QPF GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM IS STEERED TOWARD THIS WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN EASTERN ZONES COULD ASSIST
WITH UPSLOPE, DIABATIC COOLING, AND GENERAL PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION AS WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, AND THEN INTO MORE CENTRAL AREAS OF THE
STATE BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL, SO VISIBILITY WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED,
BUT SOME BRIEF, STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, PREVAILING BREEZES WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10 TO 20 KT). SPARSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EVENING AND WILL THEN DIE OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (COMMONLY
DROPPING TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT). A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NM TODAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT NO WETTING OR
SOAKING OF FUELS IS EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN/SNOW
WILL NOT COME UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG,
BUT SOME OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MODERATE BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 28 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 22 60 21 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 26 58 26 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 58 21 60 20 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 28 58 26 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 23 61 21 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 27 59 27 / 20 5 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 34 59 35 / 30 10 5 0
DATIL........................... 50 29 57 30 / 30 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 59 28 66 27 / 40 10 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 63 33 70 31 / 50 5 10 0
CHAMA........................... 52 23 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 33 57 32 / 0 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 57 31 59 29 / 5 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 26 54 26 / 0 5 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 21 50 19 / 0 5 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 18 52 16 / 0 5 10 0
TAOS............................ 57 23 59 22 / 0 5 5 0
MORA............................ 60 29 57 26 / 0 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 62 28 65 26 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 56 31 59 32 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 31 61 29 / 5 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 35 63 38 / 10 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 36 65 36 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 33 67 33 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 34 65 34 / 5 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 63 30 67 30 / 10 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 63 34 66 33 / 5 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 30 67 30 / 10 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 63 33 66 33 / 5 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 31 67 31 / 10 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 35 61 35 / 5 10 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 34 66 34 / 5 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 35 68 35 / 20 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 33 57 33 / 10 20 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 34 60 34 / 10 20 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 31 61 30 / 10 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 28 62 25 / 5 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 31 57 31 / 5 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 32 62 32 / 10 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 32 62 32 / 20 20 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 37 65 37 / 30 20 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 57 37 60 37 / 20 20 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 62 32 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 64 31 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 66 31 63 23 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 62 31 60 28 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 41 65 37 / 0 5 0 0
ROY............................. 67 36 62 30 / 0 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 38 70 32 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 38 65 33 / 0 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 38 71 33 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 72 41 70 38 / 0 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 74 42 71 37 / 0 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 38 69 34 / 0 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 41 70 37 / 5 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 40 68 38 / 10 10 0 0
ELK............................. 68 37 68 35 / 10 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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