339  
FXUS65 KABQ 050941  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
241 AM MST FRI MAR 5 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WHILE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO GET UNDERWAY  
FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES  
EXPECTED EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN LATE TODAY,  
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD OVER  
THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THE WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR ARE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...  
A 559DAM 500MB LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND  
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEAST. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS IMPACTING  
SOUTHEAST CO AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-  
3") LIKELY BETWEEN RATON PASS AND CAPULIN WHERE A WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW  
ARE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOR UNION, HARDING AND QUAY COUNTIES.  
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM TODAY  
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUMPS-UP OVER THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PROGRESSES EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.  
HOWEVER, THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY BELOW  
NORMAL DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS MORNING AND EASTERLY UPSLOPE  
FLOW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NM SATURDAY AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES, BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL  
HIGHS TO MOST LOCALES.  
 
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...  
A RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TRANSLATING  
EASTWARD OVER NM TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE A VERY  
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE-DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT, THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WILL BE SOUTHWEST BREEZES  
FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. HEIGHTS REBOUND FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WARMING ALL AREAS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR FOR MONDAY  
AND TUESDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL WARMING WILL ACT TO DRAW WIND MOMENTUM  
DOWNWARD FROM ALOFT TO RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITONS  
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION  
MODELS CONTINUE TO PHASE THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS JUST OFF THE  
SOUTHERN CA COAST MONDAY. THIS PHASING RESULTS IN A STREAM OF MID-  
LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO NM ON TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT, ANY  
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE  
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AND PERHAPS INTO  
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF THIS PLUME.  
 
BY MID-WEEK, MODELS AGREE THAT A RELATIVELY COLD UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED  
LOW WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT, THE  
NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE STATE APPEARS FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET.  
ALL BETS ARE OFF THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, WITH QUITE THE SMORGASBORD OF  
SOLUTIONS/FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE UPTREND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE  
WEST COAST AND TURNS INLAND OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.  
WINDS WILL TREND UP ACROSS OUR AREA AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH  
THERE IS SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER PACIFIC  
MOISTURE WILL BE A FACTOR. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE  
ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINING STRONGER WINDS AND  
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN  
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS  
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.  
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE  
STATE TONIGHT WITH WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING NORTHERLY. SHOWERS WILL  
REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
WHERE OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND  
NORTH OF A KRTN TO KCAO LINE. MOUNTAIN PEAK OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO-COLORADO BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING  
FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN EXPAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF  
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A FEW MVFR CEILINGS  
ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE  
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND MORE TRANQUIL  
CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
FARMINGTON...................... 58 30 63 31 / 0 0 0 0  
DULCE........................... 55 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0  
CUBA............................ 56 25 53 28 / 0 0 0 0  
GALLUP.......................... 59 21 62 21 / 0 0 0 0  
EL MORRO........................ 57 24 59 21 / 0 0 0 0  
GRANTS.......................... 58 21 61 22 / 0 0 0 0  
QUEMADO......................... 59 27 60 24 / 0 0 0 0  
MAGDALENA....................... 56 30 57 31 / 0 0 0 0  
DATIL........................... 55 26 56 26 / 0 0 0 0  
RESERVE......................... 65 23 63 23 / 0 0 0 0  
GLENWOOD........................ 69 33 65 32 / 0 0 0 0  
CHAMA........................... 49 17 49 21 / 0 0 0 0  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 32 53 33 / 0 0 0 0  
PECOS........................... 54 28 55 31 / 0 0 0 0  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 24 51 29 / 5 0 0 0  
RED RIVER....................... 43 19 45 26 / 20 0 0 0  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 9 48 18 / 10 0 0 0  
TAOS............................ 53 19 54 24 / 0 0 0 0  
MORA............................ 52 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0  
ESPANOLA........................ 59 28 61 32 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA FE........................ 56 30 56 33 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 26 59 29 / 0 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 29 64 32 / 0 0 0 0  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 33 62 34 / 0 0 0 0  
BELEN........................... 64 29 64 30 / 0 0 0 0  
BERNALILLO...................... 63 30 64 33 / 0 0 0 0  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 27 63 29 / 0 0 0 0  
CORRALES........................ 63 30 63 33 / 0 0 0 0  
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 27 64 29 / 0 0 0 0  
PLACITAS........................ 59 34 60 35 / 0 0 0 0  
RIO RANCHO...................... 62 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0  
SOCORRO......................... 65 32 64 32 / 0 0 0 0  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 32 55 34 / 0 0 0 0  
TIJERAS......................... 57 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0  
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 23 59 27 / 0 0 0 0  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 25 54 28 / 0 0 0 0  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 28 57 31 / 0 0 0 0  
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0  
RUIDOSO......................... 50 29 53 32 / 0 0 0 0  
CAPULIN......................... 50 24 56 29 / 50 0 0 0  
RATON........................... 54 19 60 25 / 40 0 0 0  
SPRINGER........................ 56 18 61 25 / 10 0 0 0  
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 22 56 28 / 0 0 0 0  
CLAYTON......................... 55 29 61 34 / 40 0 0 0  
ROY............................. 55 25 58 29 / 10 0 0 0  
CONCHAS......................... 58 27 63 32 / 0 0 0 0  
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 28 61 31 / 0 0 0 0  
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 28 64 34 / 10 0 0 0  
CLOVIS.......................... 54 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 0  
PORTALES........................ 55 28 62 32 / 0 0 0 0  
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 29 62 32 / 0 0 0 0  
ROSWELL......................... 61 32 62 34 / 0 0 0 0  
PICACHO......................... 58 31 58 31 / 0 0 0 0  
ELK............................. 56 28 56 30 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE  
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ227.  
 
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES... NMZ230-231-234.  
 

 
 

 
 
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