168
FXUS65 KABQ 141917 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
117 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A RISK OF BLOWING DUST WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN AGAIN MONDAY.
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING DAILY RECORDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA,
FUELED BY RICHER LOW LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT
MOVED WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z
KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.95", WHICH IS OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING AND APPROACH DAILY RECORD VALUES. SO, PLENTY OF JUICE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
SPC EXPANDED THE DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH UP
THE RGV TO NORTH OF LOS ALAMOS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1,300J/KG. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
METROS GETTING HIT BETWEEN 3-7PM, WITH A POTPOURRI OF IMPACTS
INCLUDING STRONG/ERRATIC AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST, HAIL, CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MEANWHILE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS IN THE FRONTAL LAYER. KSSR IS
CURRENTLY 57 DEGREES AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE
NOTABLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE LOWER
RGV ARE MODELED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD RUIDOSO LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BRING A QUICK ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
BURN SCARS, BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER OVERALL, HELPING TO GENERATE GREATER
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS AND THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THE LATEST NAM IS
PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
GETTING HIT LATE MONDAY, WITH MUCAPE OF 2,500J/KG, LIS OF -7C AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45KTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS TUE/WED, DUE PARTIALLY TO GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THAT
SAID, WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
LONGER. WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING HOTTER AND THE LATEST GFS MOS
VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE, SHOWING HIGHS OF 101 IN ALBUQUERQUE, 108 IN
TUCUMCARI AND 112 IN ROSWELL! NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE'RE LOOKING TO
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
HEAT ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS INCLUDING ROSWELL. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY,
WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN REMAIN HOT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAN MORE
WET THAN DRY GIVEN INCREASING PWATS. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO DRIER WESTERLIES NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BY LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LOW STRATUS BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM IS PRODUCING
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS, WHICH WILL BE STUBBORN TO IMPROVE TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON,
IMPACTING THE KABQ/KAEG/KSAF AIRSPACE WITH BLOWING DUST, STRONG
AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND SOME HAIL. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT IMPACT KFMN OR
KGUP THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND
BLOWING DUST OVER OTHER HAZARDS. KROW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
STORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL FAVOR STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY AND FOCUS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO DAILY ROUNDS OF
WETTING STORMS AND CREATING GOOD CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. HOT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY AND RENEW
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 92 55 95 / 10 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 85 44 90 / 30 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 84 53 88 / 40 20 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 89 51 92 / 10 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 85 52 89 / 20 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 51 92 / 30 20 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 56 87 55 90 / 10 10 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 84 60 89 / 30 50 20 0
DATIL........................... 57 84 57 88 / 10 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 52 89 50 94 / 10 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 93 54 97 / 10 30 10 5
CHAMA........................... 44 78 43 84 / 50 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 80 59 87 / 50 40 10 0
PECOS........................... 49 81 51 88 / 50 40 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 74 48 84 / 70 70 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 66 41 75 / 70 60 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 72 37 80 / 70 50 10 0
TAOS............................ 50 78 49 87 / 60 50 10 0
MORA............................ 48 76 48 85 / 70 40 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 55 86 56 93 / 50 30 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 54 81 55 89 / 50 40 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 85 54 92 / 50 30 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 88 64 94 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 89 63 96 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 91 60 96 / 50 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0
CORRALES........................ 59 91 61 97 / 40 20 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 88 61 93 / 50 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 91 65 98 / 30 30 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 84 57 89 / 50 20 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 58 91 / 50 20 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 86 55 91 / 40 20 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 87 50 92 / 40 20 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 81 53 88 / 40 20 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 85 56 91 / 40 30 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 84 55 90 / 40 20 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 84 61 93 / 40 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 76 55 84 / 60 50 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 46 74 49 85 / 70 70 30 10
RATON........................... 47 79 48 90 / 60 50 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 49 80 49 91 / 70 70 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 77 50 88 / 60 50 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 53 78 56 90 / 50 40 30 20
ROY............................. 51 76 53 89 / 70 50 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 56 84 58 97 / 40 30 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 83 57 95 / 40 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 84 60 97 / 30 20 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 57 81 60 93 / 30 10 30 10
PORTALES........................ 58 82 60 94 / 30 10 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 84 60 96 / 30 20 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 63 86 64 97 / 30 10 20 0
PICACHO......................... 57 82 58 93 / 40 40 30 5
ELK............................. 54 80 56 89 / 50 60 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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