434
FXUS65 KABQ 040741
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
141 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
- A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE FARMINGTON AND SANTA
FE AREAS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT PLANTS, PETS, AND
PIPES FROM A DAMAGING FREEZE EVENT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AND DRY LIGHTNING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FUTURE FIRE STARTS. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR WETTING RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, BUT
ONCE THEY DO, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RATHER QUICKLY WHERE CLOUDS
ARE SCARCE. WE'RE ALREADY SEEING THIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NM WHERE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE THE RULE. A HARD FREEZE
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM, AS
WELL AS THE ESTANCIA VALLEY. FREEZING TEMPS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY AND NEAR KAEG. A FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM FOR THE CENTRAL NM VALLEYS, SANTA FE
METRO AND THE NW PLATEAU.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER NORTHERN NM FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE OVER NM TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
NONETHELESS, MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS AFTN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT SUNDAY.
MOISTURE POOLING OVER TEXAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL TAKE THE
SCENIC ROUTE INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN NM ON SUNDAY AS A MID
LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS HIGH WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF NM WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRAW THE MOISTURE OVER TEXAS INTO NM.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. CAN'T RULE OUT A
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE, BUT ERRATIC GUSTS FROM THE SHOWERS APPEAR
MORE LIKELY. OVERALL FORCING IS MINIMAL BUT THERE IS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AT UPPER LEVELS THAT MAY AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
NONETHELESS, TOP-DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD INCREASE LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST NM. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO MID
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM TO ADVECT NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER NM ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA INTO SOUTHERN AZ AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
NM MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY. MOISTURE ARRIVING WITH THE
SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH THE MODEST MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
ACROSS WESTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
WETTING RAINFALL (>=0.10") WILL STILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THUS, A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.
SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER WELL
INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT THE TROUGH AXIS AND
BEST FORCING WILL BE WELL PAST NM BY THEN SO THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY
AND THIS GENERAL THINKING AGREES WITH MOST AI MODELS.
QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THOUGH ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS. OVERALL, MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL BLURRY
ON THE TIMING, PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATE IN THE
WEEK, THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO BE UNSETTLED WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
THROUGH 10-11Z AT KAEG AND KROW AS WELL AS OTHER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT SAT APR 4 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND WINDS WILL LARGELY STAY BELOW
CRITICAL CRITERIA. THERE ARE A FEW EXCEPTIONS, HOWEVER. AFTER
LIGHT WINDS TODAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM. DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL ALSO DECREASE
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS (ZONES 123 AND 104), WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OVER THE HIGHLANDS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS EASTERN NM ON MONDAY, BUT RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES
IN RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR NEW FIRE STARTS. WETTING
RAINS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY OVERALL. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL MIX OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AND
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE
LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 23 64 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 17 64 21 68 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 23 61 30 65 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 16 65 24 70 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 25 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 16 64 27 68 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 24 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 20
MAGDALENA....................... 31 64 38 65 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 28 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 25 72 32 70 / 0 0 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 33 77 36 74 / 0 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 19 58 24 61 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 33 59 37 63 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 26 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 19 49 24 52 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 56 16 58 / 0 0 0 10
TAOS............................ 15 61 24 65 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 24 60 27 60 / 0 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 26 67 31 70 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 29 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 63 32 67 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 38 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 31 71 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 36 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 30 71 34 73 / 0 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 34 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 28 71 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 34 71 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 31 70 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 35 65 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 35 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 38 73 40 72 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 34 63 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 27 63 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 64 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 29 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 67 39 66 / 0 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 35 59 35 56 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 24 58 27 62 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 23 62 24 67 / 5 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 24 64 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 31 62 35 69 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 61 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 68 33 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 65 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 36 69 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 41 69 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 69 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 39 66 37 62 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 36 64 33 58 / 0 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201-217>219-222.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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