230
FXUS65 KABQ 101957
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
157 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON AREA BURN
SCARS EACH DAY FROM DAILY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL
RESULT IN STORMS PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S ACROSS EASTERN NM, COMBINED WITH MODEST MLCAPE
(~500-1000J/KG) AND AROUND 30-35KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FAVORED AREA WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, THOUGH
SEVERAL MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FAVORED PRIOR TO
9PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, IT WOULD BRING EAST (SOUTHEAST)
CANYON WINDS TO ALBUQUERQUE (SANTA FE) GUSTING NEAR 35 MPH.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY ON
ITS WAY TO WY. DESPITE GAPS WINDS, IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. HOWEVER, MOIST EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL HELP DRIVE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST, WHILE STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARD THE
WEST. OF COURSE, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY CAUSE STORM MOTIONS TO BE
ERRATIC AT TIMES. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. PWATS
WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER TODAY. PWATS BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.1 INCHES
WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. STORMS ACROSS
EASTERN NM WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING OR MOVING INTO TEXAS. ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THESE STORMS WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
ATTM, GAPS WINDS LOOK A BIT STRONGER THAN WHAT THEY WILL BE
TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, AND IN PARTICULAR, AREAS WITHIN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS BETWEEN NOON AND 6PM SAT. THIS IS A LOWER
CONFIDENCE WATCH. HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW STORMS IN THE AREA, BUT
MODELS DISAGREE WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND STORM LOCATION TO
THE POINT WHERE IT'S TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHETHER OR NOT THE BURN
SCARS THEMSELVES WILL BE AFFECTED. HOWEVER, THERE ARE ENOUGH
METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS (HIGH PWAT, SLOW STORM MOTION, H5 FLOW
PARALLELING THE RIDGELINE, MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO
THE AREA) COMBINED WITH KNOWN OUTDOOR EVENTS THAT WE FELT A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS PRUDENT AND WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS.
WHERE STORMS WILL BE SCARCE, THE HEAT WILL BE ON AGAIN SATURDAY. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FARMINGTON AREA WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. AREAS WITHIN
THE ABQ METRO WILL BE CLOSE, BUT SHOULD END UP JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND DEEP LAYER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PWATS WILL INCREASE ABOVE
0.8" FOR MOST AREAS AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS NEARLY AREAWIDE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE COMPLICATED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MAY (OR MAY NOT) BE IN PLAY TO INCREASE
STORM POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DAILY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35KT AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MEANWHILE, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL IMPACT NORTHEAST NM WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KT, HAIL,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER ONE OF THESE STORMS. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT STORMS
WILL LINGER ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO SEND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY PUSH
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH GUSTS NEAR
30KT AT BOTH KABQ AND KSAF OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
90S AND LOW 100S, RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 HOURS BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. FORTUNATELY,
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THUS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AS WELL AS BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS TODAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY, STORMS FORMING OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, BUT STORMS
ELSEWHERE MAY HAVE MORE ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, THUS BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL, BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL VARY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 100 67 99 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 50 95 54 94 / 0 0 5 20
CUBA............................ 56 94 59 90 / 0 10 5 40
GALLUP.......................... 54 97 60 93 / 0 0 0 30
EL MORRO........................ 56 93 59 88 / 0 5 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 55 95 59 92 / 0 0 0 20
QUEMADO......................... 60 93 60 89 / 10 5 5 30
MAGDALENA....................... 65 92 64 88 / 10 5 5 10
DATIL........................... 60 89 60 85 / 10 5 10 20
RESERVE......................... 56 96 56 92 / 10 20 10 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 98 58 94 / 20 30 20 60
CHAMA........................... 47 86 50 86 / 0 10 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 88 64 85 / 0 10 5 30
PECOS........................... 56 88 56 87 / 5 50 10 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 87 55 86 / 5 20 5 30
RED RIVER....................... 44 77 46 76 / 10 50 5 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 79 40 79 / 10 60 10 30
TAOS............................ 54 89 54 89 / 0 20 5 30
MORA............................ 53 84 53 83 / 10 60 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 62 98 63 94 / 0 5 5 30
SANTA FE........................ 62 90 61 88 / 0 20 5 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 93 60 91 / 0 10 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 97 66 93 / 5 20 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 98 69 94 / 0 10 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 99 65 96 / 0 5 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 98 67 95 / 5 5 5 20
BELEN........................... 66 100 64 96 / 0 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 67 99 66 96 / 0 5 5 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 99 62 95 / 0 5 5 20
CORRALES........................ 67 100 66 97 / 0 5 5 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 99 63 95 / 0 5 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 67 95 68 91 / 0 10 5 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 99 67 95 / 0 5 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 71 100 70 97 / 5 5 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 92 61 88 / 5 20 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 62 92 61 90 / 0 20 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 92 59 89 / 5 30 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 93 54 90 / 5 40 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 88 56 84 / 10 60 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 92 59 89 / 5 40 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 61 91 59 87 / 10 40 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 65 89 / 20 40 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 60 83 58 81 / 20 40 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 54 84 54 84 / 50 50 20 20
RATON........................... 55 90 54 89 / 30 50 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 90 54 90 / 20 50 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 84 53 84 / 20 60 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 61 90 62 91 / 60 20 20 20
ROY............................. 59 87 59 87 / 30 60 50 20
CONCHAS......................... 64 95 64 94 / 50 50 40 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 92 63 90 / 20 50 60 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 96 65 94 / 60 20 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 66 94 65 91 / 40 10 30 20
PORTALES........................ 67 96 66 92 / 30 10 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 96 66 92 / 20 20 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 71 97 69 93 / 10 10 50 20
PICACHO......................... 65 92 64 88 / 20 10 20 20
ELK............................. 61 88 60 85 / 10 20 20 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-219>221.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ201.
FLOOD WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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