672
FXUS65 KABQ 200553 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
- WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND POSING
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR THOSE MOST SENSITIVE TO HEAT. HEAT RISK
PEAKS SATURDAY IN EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM.
- EXCEPTIONALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN EASTERN NM SUNDAY, LOWERING
HIGH TEMPERATURES. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS LIKELY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
IT WAS A COOL MORNING AROUND MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
RAPIDLY WARMED UP (ALREADY 50+ DEGREES IN SOME AREAS). THE 500MB
HEIGHT FROM THE 18Z SOUNDING AT KABQ WAS 595MB, WHICH IS 4MB MORE
THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 591MB (SET YESTERDAY). THIS IS QUITE
EXCEPTIONAL AND HAS TRANSLATED TO EXCEPTIONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AT
THE SFC AS WELL. DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS ARE ON TAP TO BE
BROKEN TODAY IN JUST ABOUT EVERY CORNER OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO TODAY'S HIGHS AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. MANY MORE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE RECORD-SETTING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND,
CREATING LIGHT BREEZES AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
DESPITE LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS, THE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT,
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING AT LEAST 90F IS 99%+ IN ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF REACHING
100F. SATURDAY WILL BE ALBUQUERQUE'S BEST CHANCE TO REACH 90F, WITH
A 80% CHANCE AT THE SUNPORT AND EVEN HIGHER PROBS LOWER IN THE
VALLEY. ALBUQUERQUE'S RECORD FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS MAY 3RD SO 90-
DEGREE WEATHER IN MARCH WOULD BE TRULY EXTRAORDINARY. TEMPERATURES
TREND A TAD LOWER SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO TREND LOWER
ON MONDAY BEHIND A POTENT AND GUSTY BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH IT AND THIS DENSITY GRADIENT SHOULD
HELP TO DRIVE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
THE HEAT TURNS UP AGAIN EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RISE OVER 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE
DATA THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDESPREAD
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, AS READINGS
CLIMB BETWEEN 20-27 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES. DENSITY
ALTITUDE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR AVIATION
OPERATIONS NEAR COMPLEX TERRAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE RECORD-SETTING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THIS WEEKEND,
CREATING LIGHT BREEZES AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
DESPITE LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS, THE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT,
THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING AT LEAST 90F IS 99%+ IN ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A 10-40% CHANCE OF REACHING
100F. SATURDAY WILL BE ALBUQUERQUE'S BEST CHANCE TO REACH 90F, WITH
A 80% CHANCE AT THE SUNPORT AND EVEN HIGHER PROBS LOWER IN THE
VALLEY. ALBUQUERQUE'S RECORD FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY IS MAY 3RD SO 90-
DEGREE WEATHER IN MARCH WOULD BE TRULY EXTRAORDINARY. TEMPERATURES
TREND A TAD LOWER SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO TREND LOWER
ON MONDAY BEHIND A POTENT AND GUSTY BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH IT AND THIS DENSITY GRADIENT SHOULD
HELP TO DRIVE SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL THREATEN RECORDS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
THE HEAT TURNS UP AGAIN EARLY TO MID-NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RISE OVER 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YET AGAIN. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE
DATA THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE VERY HIGH
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF MARCH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 38 86 41 89 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 83 33 82 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 38 82 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 86 28 89 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 83 40 85 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 33 86 33 88 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 84 41 86 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 83 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 36 89 41 88 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 92 45 92 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 77 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 42 83 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 31 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 76 25 76 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 31 83 32 85 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 80 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 42 88 42 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 48 84 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 86 43 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 89 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 91 48 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 49 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 42 90 42 92 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 48 89 48 91 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 90 43 91 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 47 90 49 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 89 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 51 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 88 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 52 91 50 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 83 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 47 85 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 87 33 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 82 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 86 45 87 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 84 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 40 80 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 35 84 38 89 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 36 86 37 91 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 83 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 86 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 85 43 91 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 92 44 98 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 89 44 95 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 91 45 97 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 93 50 96 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 46 94 48 96 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 93 43 97 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 46 95 47 97 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 90 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 88 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
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