152
FXUS65 KABQ 191232 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
632 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TODAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A
RISK OF LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING MAINLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURRED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
- AFTER A BREAK FROM STORMS SUNDAY, STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVER EASTERN AREAS MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THERE WILL BE A DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY
TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN FEW IF ANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY, THEN ONTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GEFS PWATS WILL FALL BETWEEN
90-120% OF NORMAL TODAY, THEN AROUND 60-100% OF NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
MAINLY BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, A FEW OF TODAY'S STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING UP TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED FROM PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. STORM MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS AROUND 30-35 MPH WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE CELLS
TO TRAIN IN SUCCESSION FOR FLOODING TO BECOME IMPACTFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN RESPONSE TO THE DECREASE IN MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES TODAY FROM SATURDAY'S READINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO VARY FROM AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON TO AS MUCH AS
6 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES IN THE WEST. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
DROPPING HIGHS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP TO 4
DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS, AND AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MONDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER FEW TO 7 DEGREES OF COOLING
ON THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT THAT
WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BANK UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY MID MORNING MONDAY. MOISTURE
WITH THE FRONT, AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER NM IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER CENTRAL
CA, SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RICH RETURN FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND A FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER NM, SHOULD
CAUSE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
ANOTHER VERY IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CA
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WHILE A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM PARKS OVER EASTERN TX. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE DRAWING
ADDITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES NORTHWARD
OVER NM. AT THIS TIME, PERIODS OF LOCALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
LOOK TO FAVOR ALL BUT THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH PRECIP TOTALS ELSEWHERE DURING THE WORK WEEK POTENTIALLY
REACHING 1-3 INCHES; WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES.
MODELS VARY ON WHETHER A TROPICAL STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF NM, BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PACIFIC. THE
DECIDING FACTOR COULD BE HOW DEEPLY AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM DIGS
OFF THE WESTERN US COAST, SINCE THE LATEST ECMWF DEEPENS THE
UPPER LOW SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN THE GFS AND DROPS IT
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO LINGER INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTHEAST AND FAR NORTHEAST AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 25-30 KT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2026
EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR AND ABOVE 15 PERCENT. AFTER BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY, HUMIDITIES
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 80 50 79 47 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 77 37 77 36 / 20 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 74 46 75 45 / 40 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 76 45 76 45 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 45 73 45 / 10 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 77 47 77 47 / 30 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 75 48 74 49 / 40 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 75 53 75 55 / 40 10 0 0
DATIL........................... 75 49 75 51 / 20 5 0 0
RESERVE......................... 82 49 82 50 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 89 57 88 57 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 70 41 71 39 / 20 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 75 52 75 51 / 40 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 77 48 78 48 / 20 20 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 74 46 74 46 / 20 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 65 39 65 37 / 20 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 41 71 40 / 10 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 77 43 77 41 / 20 20 0 0
MORA............................ 78 46 77 45 / 10 10 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 81 51 82 49 / 30 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 76 53 77 53 / 20 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 50 79 49 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 58 82 59 / 30 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 56 81 56 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 55 83 55 / 40 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 80 57 81 57 / 40 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 82 53 83 54 / 40 30 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 82 55 83 54 / 40 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 52 82 53 / 40 30 0 0
CORRALES........................ 82 56 83 55 / 40 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 54 83 55 / 40 30 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 79 55 80 56 / 30 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 56 82 55 / 40 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 86 59 85 60 / 30 20 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 52 77 53 / 30 40 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 77 54 77 55 / 30 40 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 79 49 79 50 / 30 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 46 81 45 / 30 30 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 77 50 77 51 / 20 30 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 79 51 79 52 / 30 40 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 79 52 79 53 / 20 40 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 83 58 83 59 / 20 20 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 80 54 80 54 / 20 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 80 50 76 49 / 10 10 10 40
RATON........................... 84 47 81 48 / 10 10 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 86 47 83 48 / 10 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 48 78 48 / 5 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 89 58 80 56 / 5 10 5 40
ROY............................. 85 53 81 54 / 5 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 93 59 89 60 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 60 87 57 / 10 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 61 87 59 / 5 10 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 92 62 91 61 / 5 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 93 63 93 62 / 5 10 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 60 92 59 / 5 20 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 95 61 95 63 / 20 20 0 5
PICACHO......................... 89 59 89 59 / 30 10 10 0
ELK............................. 88 56 88 55 / 20 10 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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