455
FXUS65 KABQ 150539
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1133 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM, THEN BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
LATE WEEK. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN
SCARS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL TX CREEPS TOWARD SOUTHEAST NM. PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THIS REGIME AND TODAY'S KABQ 18Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING IS ALREADY SHOWING 0.90". TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME
HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY AND WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PER THE
LATEST CAMS. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY WITH THESE SOUTHWEST MOVERS, BUT SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AS WELL ALONG WITH A TYPICAL
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT. MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WITH A LEAN TOWARD HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN PWATS
CONTINUING A SLOW UPTREND. THE KABQ PWAT IS MODELED TO REACH 1.10"
OR GREATER BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE CAMS ARE SHOWING BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS KEEPING CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER WEST TX
WILL CREEP INTO SOUTHEAST NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL
FINALLY LOSE IT'S GRIP, BRINGING SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS,
LIGHTER STEERING FLOW AND A CONTINUED UPTREND IN PWATS.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PRODUCE LARGER FOOTPRINTS OF SOAKING RAINS THAT ARE TYPICAL OF
ACTIVE MONSOON PERIODS. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS MAY BE LOW ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
TO AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ELSEWHERE IS NON-ZERO AND A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY FOR WESTERN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
NM DEPENDING ON HOW THE PREVIOUS DAY'S RAINFALL DISTRIBUTES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND BE BELOW AVERAGE FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY THANKS TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING
OF THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH OF THE MONSOON HIGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE KABQ PWAT IS
MODELED TO REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 1.10-1.20", WHICH IS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THOSE DAYS AND PLENTY SUPPORTIVE OF DAILY
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE MONSOON IS ABOUT TO GET ACTIVE!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A FEW SHOWERS LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT VERY LITTLE OF
THIS RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND. MVFR CIGS WILL SNEAK INTO SE NM
AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING, CREATING PATCHY LOW CIGS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE SHORT DURATION,
BUT MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NM
PAST 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION. HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
RECOVERIES GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE OVER
THE COMING DAYS. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST TO
INCLUDE THE EASTERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 94 62 90 / 20 30 70 30
DULCE........................... 50 89 47 86 / 40 80 60 60
CUBA............................ 57 85 54 82 / 40 60 60 40
GALLUP.......................... 55 89 53 84 / 50 60 80 40
EL MORRO........................ 56 84 54 79 / 50 70 80 50
GRANTS.......................... 58 88 54 83 / 40 70 70 40
QUEMADO......................... 59 84 56 79 / 40 80 80 60
MAGDALENA....................... 64 84 61 81 / 10 40 60 30
DATIL........................... 60 81 57 77 / 30 70 80 40
RESERVE......................... 56 87 54 83 / 40 80 70 60
GLENWOOD........................ 58 90 56 87 / 30 80 50 60
CHAMA........................... 48 81 47 78 / 40 80 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 82 60 81 / 20 70 50 40
PECOS........................... 53 80 52 80 / 20 90 30 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 81 54 79 / 20 70 60 60
RED RIVER....................... 45 71 45 71 / 20 80 50 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 75 39 75 / 30 80 40 70
TAOS............................ 51 83 50 81 / 30 70 50 50
MORA............................ 50 76 50 77 / 30 80 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 60 90 59 88 / 30 60 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 61 82 59 81 / 20 60 40 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 86 57 85 / 10 60 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 90 65 88 / 20 50 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 91 62 89 / 20 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 93 62 91 / 20 30 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 92 65 90 / 20 40 50 20
BELEN........................... 63 93 61 91 / 20 20 40 20
BERNALILLO...................... 65 93 64 91 / 10 50 40 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 92 59 90 / 20 30 40 20
CORRALES........................ 65 93 64 91 / 10 40 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 92 61 90 / 20 30 40 20
PLACITAS........................ 65 88 64 87 / 10 50 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 92 64 90 / 20 40 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 70 95 67 92 / 5 20 40 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 84 58 83 / 20 60 40 40
TIJERAS......................... 60 85 58 84 / 20 60 40 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 85 55 85 / 20 60 30 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 86 52 86 / 20 50 30 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 80 53 80 / 10 50 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 85 55 84 / 20 40 30 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 83 56 83 / 10 40 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 86 61 85 / 0 20 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 55 78 54 77 / 5 20 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 53 78 52 79 / 0 10 5 10
RATON........................... 53 83 52 84 / 5 20 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 55 83 54 85 / 5 30 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 79 53 80 / 20 60 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 60 86 60 87 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 58 81 58 82 / 5 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 63 90 62 90 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 85 60 85 / 5 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 63 90 62 90 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 62 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 89 62 89 / 0 0 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 66 90 65 88 / 0 5 5 10
PICACHO......................... 60 85 59 84 / 10 5 5 10
ELK............................. 56 83 55 82 / 5 10 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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