993
FXUS65 KABQ 012323 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
423 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 408 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
A SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST NM THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THEN WEST TONIGHT WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWEST FROM TX. THE LATEST NBM PROBS FOR LOW STRATUS HAVE RISEN
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NM ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PATCHY FOG.
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHWEST
CO. WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF
CIRRUS FOR WESTERN NM. WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40
MPH ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ABOVE 9,000' MAY SEE LOCAL GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BREAK RECORDS AGAIN IN SEVERAL
LOCALES WHILE TRENDING COOLER ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING H5 LOW. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE. LOW CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN TO FAR SOUTHEAST NM
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE H5 LOW WILL OPEN UP WHILE CROSSING EAST THRU CENTRAL CO TUESDAY.
THIS WILL FORCE STRONGER WEST WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. LOW HUMIDITY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. NORTHWEST NM WILL
TREND COOLER AS A PACIFIC FRONT ENTERS THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
NO WIND ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME EXCEPT PERHAPS THE
CLINES CORNERS AREA. THE NEXT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS POISED TO
ENTER NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY EVENING THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TREND TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ACROSS THE EAST BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MARCH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANQUIL DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THE NEXT
H5 LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS
APPEAR STRONGER THURSDAY WITH THE CORE OF 700-500MB LAYER WINDS NEAR
30 TO 40KT AND A 994MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CO. TEMPS WILL
WARM CLOSER TO RECORDS AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS AND
LOW HUMIDITY. A COUPLE ZONES MAY SEE WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS IN
THE NORTH AND EAST BUT NBM PROBS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS TIME. MIN
TEMPS THEN TREND EVEN COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS STILL FAIRLY LOW WITH HOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE
12Z MODEL SUITE WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH TRACK, TIMING, AND ANY MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 408 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH PERIODS
OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST
FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KROW EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING, BUT PICK UP AND
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20-30KTS WILL BE COMMON BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND KGUP
MAY EVEN GUST UP TO 35KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
ANOTHER WEEK OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY,
DEEPER MIXING, AND RECEPTIVE FUEL CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NM. THE
MAIN CONCERN IS OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS MONDAY THEN OVER MUCH
OF EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE AREA FROM NEAR LAS VEGAS TO SPRINGER AND RATON ON
MONDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE GALLUP TO GRANTS AREA WAS
CANCELLED GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON LOW ERCS AND SOME LINGERING
SNOW ON NORTH-FACING SLOPES. FOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY, A LARGER
PORTION OF EASTERN NM IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR
TUESDAY. PERIODIC NORTHERLY WIND SHIFTS WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM
DURING THIS TIME, THE FIRST TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND AGAIN FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE A PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD COOLER TEMPS WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS WIND
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 72 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 67 31 60 / 0 5 0 5
CUBA............................ 37 71 35 59 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 30 72 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 70 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 75 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 36 73 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 76 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 71 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 34 76 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 35 80 40 76 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 30 61 30 52 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 69 42 60 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 38 69 40 62 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 65 35 57 / 0 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 30 60 33 52 / 0 0 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 62 29 53 / 0 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 32 69 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 35 70 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 76 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 70 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 73 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 77 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 79 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 43 82 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 40 83 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 44 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 39 82 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 43 81 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 82 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 75 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 44 80 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 84 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 71 43 63 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 74 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 39 75 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 76 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 71 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 75 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 75 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 78 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 73 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 31 70 38 64 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 30 73 36 67 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 29 76 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 72 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 33 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 34 73 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 35 82 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 79 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 40 75 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 38 76 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 79 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 81 46 87 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 44 83 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR NMZ123.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11
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