002
FXUS65 KABQ 160736
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
136 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 108 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST LOWERING VISIBILITY WILL BE PRESENT ON
AREA HIGHWAYS FROM STRONG GUSTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO NEAR-RECORD
HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN ACTIVE FIRE GROWTH WEATHER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY VERY DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. TODAY WILL SEE A PLEASANT
START TO THE DAY WITH LIGHT MORNING WINDS YIELDING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHARPENING TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PACNW WILL BE
THE CULPRIT FOR THIS, RAISING TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BLANKET THE STATE,
RANGING FROM THE 60S/70S IN THE MOUNTAIN TO 80S IN THE MIDDLE
ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM, 90S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE WITH GUSTS COMMONLY REACHING 15 TO 25
MPH OVER A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW WIND PRONE SPOTS
LIKE THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ALONG I-25
FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON WILL SEE SOME PEAK GUSTS REACHING 25 TO
40 MPH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PACNW CLOSES OFF AND
DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION, FURTHER STRENGTHENING
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS REACHING 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE THE RULE WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND WEST-CENTRAL NM. WHILE MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH, REACHING UP TO 12K-14KFT, THE MAIN JETMAX
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED WILL REMAIN OFF THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION. H7 WINDS BEING TAPPED INTO FOR PEAK GUSTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIMITED UNTIL MONDAY. LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RETREAT A FEW DEGREES OVER WESTERN NM TO NEAR
NORMAL, HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS
WILL REMAIN. COUPLED WITH THE WINDS, THE HEAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY BLOWING DUST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW DUST PRONE
LOCATIONS COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY IMPACTS FOR DRIVERS ALONGSIDE MORE
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON AREA
HIGHWAYS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WINDS TAPER OFF FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY NIGHT, OR AT LEAST BACK OFF
FROM THEIR PEAK SPREADS. THE MAIN H5 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CO ROCKIES HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAVE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TOURING NM WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE NM/CO BORDER FOR THE MOST PART. THE
MAIN 80-90KT JETMAX CORE WILL CROSS NORTHERN NM, COUPLED WITH A
~992MB MSLP LEE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. THIS WILL ENHANCE
WIND POTENTIAL MONDAY RELATIVE TO SUNDAY, NOTABLY OVER NORTHEASTERN
NM WHERE VERTICAL MIXING TAPPING INTO 50KT H7 WINDS AND A SHARPENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS TO PEAK 45 TO 55 MPH. MORE WIDESPREAD PEAK GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
MPH WILL BE FOCUS ELSEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. WIND ADVISORIES, AND PERHAPS A HIGH WIND WARNING OR TWO, WILL
CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST PRODUCING LOCALIZED LOWERED VISIBILITY AND MORE
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON AREA HIGHWAYS WILL AGAIN BE
PRESENT. WINDS WILL BE LESS FURTHER WEST TOWARD AZ, BUT STILL WINDY.
WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE MAIN H5 CLOSED
LOW OPENS AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT BACKING INTO
NORTHEASTERN NM ADVANCE TO ~I-40 BEFORE BEHIND SHUNTED BACK AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, TUESDAY SEES FAIRLY
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND 70S/80S AT MIDDLE TO LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BACKING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM ADVANCES
FURTHER THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY, AND FURTHER WEST INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AMID WEAKER FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD FAVOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AREA AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO END THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEGIN INCREASING IN EARNEST LATE SATURDAY MORNING, PEAKING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE BACKING OFF
PEAK SPEEDS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL BE THE RULE, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KTS FOCUSED IN WIND PRONE AREAS AND UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
FROM KONM TO KABQ AND ELSEWHERE AT KGUP AND KROW. THERE IS A MORE
WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IMPACTS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS
OCCURS AT TAF TERMINALS REMAINS A QUESTION HOWEVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
...FIRE GROWING PATTERN BUILDING TODAY, PEAKING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
VERY DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON ALONGSIDE
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY BOTTOMING OUT TO 5 TO 10 PERCENT. MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS SEEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S TO 90S
WILL SEE 6 TO 12 HOURS OF SINGLE-DIGIT HUMIDITY. WINDS REMAIN THE
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CLASSICAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LITTER
OF ACTIVE FIRES THERE AND CONDITIONS FAVORING STRONGER WINDS PUSHING
UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS B/W
THE MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS, HAVE ELECTED TO UPGRADE THE
REMAINDER OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTENSIFY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING IN STRENGTH ALONGSIDE MORE ROUNDS OF SINGLE-DIGIT
HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AFTERNOON SEES CONDITIONS FOR THE
MOST WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WHILE MONDAY SEES THIS
SHIFT FOCUS MORE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BUT WITH THE
HIGHER WIND SPEED POTENTIAL. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 55 MPH WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND THE NORTHWEST
PLATEAU NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DUE THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY WILL
BE PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY AS WE STEP CLOSER IN TIME.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ABATE AS WINDS LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY
AREAWIDE TUESDAY ALONGSIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM. THESE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MOISTURE ADVANCE THRU EASTERN NM
WEDNESDAY, ADVANCING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 87 49 80 46 / 0 0 0 10
DULCE........................... 82 39 75 37 / 0 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 82 44 76 41 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 80 40 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 78 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 83 43 78 41 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 81 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 82 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 80 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 83 41 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 44 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 77 37 69 35 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 80 54 75 52 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 82 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 79 46 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 69 40 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 75 39 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 83 42 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 81 48 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 88 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 82 51 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 85 49 79 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 87 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 53 88 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 90 50 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 90 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 90 50 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 91 54 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 51 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 85 57 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 92 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 53 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 83 52 79 51 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 85 52 80 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 49 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 52 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 84 49 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 50 78 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 79 54 74 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 83 47 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 86 45 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 88 47 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 52 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 92 57 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 87 51 82 52 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 96 59 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 57 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 61 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 97 58 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 98 57 95 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 55 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 98 57 95 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 91 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 89 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104>106-109-123>126.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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