727
FXUS65 KABQ 292334 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 529 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND FLASH FLOODING BELOW
VULNERABLE BURN SCARS. SOME STORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN AND A RISK OF
NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST UT AND
STEERING DRY WESTERLIES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 18Z KFGZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SHOWED 500MB WIND SPEEDS OF 60KTS AND THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOW PIVOTING OVER FAR WESTERN NM, RESULTING IN
WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU, INCLUDING GALLUP, WHERE GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 50-55MPH ARE LIKELY FROM 3PM THROUGH 7PM MDT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ARE ON THE
WANE PER THE LATEST RAP13 CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS AND THE SPC HAS
MOVED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA EAST OF THE NM/TX BORDER. THE UPPER
LOW WILL PUSH A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, DRYING OUT EASTERN NM AND RESULTING IN A
BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REBOUND SUNDAY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE. FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, RESULTING IN A ROUND OF
STORMS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH NEAR SOCAL WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO TRANSPORT WESTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ
STATE LINE TUE/WED, RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF ACTIVE DAYS WITH
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY, THEN BE ELEVATED ON TUE/WED. AN
UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHWEST NM THU/FRI,
EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING DOWN DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION THERE WHILE
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN REMAIN FAVORED. THE
THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THU/FRI. DUE TO THE ADDED MOISTURE
RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A FEW HIGH-BASED VIRGA SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHWEST NM TODAY WILL ENHANCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45KT THRU SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KT
WILL BE COMMON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET AND GIVE WAY TO AREAS OF
LLWS OVER EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHTER WINDS WITH WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 35KT STILL POSSIBLE
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST INTO UT IS STEERING STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRY AIR INTO WESTERN NM AND RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY WESTERLIES WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS NM OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
WITH LESS WIND AND LITTLE TO NO CONCERN FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
FIRE. GULF MOISTURE WILL COME BACK TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY, RESULTING IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
WETTING STORMS WHILE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. MOISTURE WILL SURGE WEST TO NEAR THE AZ
BORDER ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN HIGHER THAN AVERAGE HUMIDITY AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 76 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 38 72 33 79 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 40 71 41 79 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 37 74 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 76 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 41 74 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 43 75 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 80 40 86 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 83 44 90 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 67 34 73 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 73 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 44 74 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 70 42 76 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 61 33 67 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 65 29 72 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 44 73 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 44 73 41 79 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 48 80 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 79 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 83 51 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 81 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 51 85 48 89 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 49 83 47 88 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 82 52 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 84 49 88 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 81 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 87 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 74 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 77 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 43 78 39 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 74 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 80 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 75 52 81 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 44 76 41 77 / 20 0 0 0
RATON........................... 44 80 40 83 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 46 81 41 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 75 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 84 50 85 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 49 81 46 83 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 55 88 49 91 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 84 48 88 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 90 50 93 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 88 53 94 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 90 52 95 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 88 50 91 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 94 55 97 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 86 53 92 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 83 51 91 / 5 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-109.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ205.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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