664
FXUS65 KABQ 251724 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
- STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY, MORE-SO
WEDNESDAY, THEN REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS
DISTURBANCES CLIP NORTHEAST NM IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE CENTER
OF THE ~ 597 DAM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SETTING DAILY
MAXIMUM 500 MB HEIGHT RECORDS OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO DRIFT
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHWESTWARD REACHING NM'S SOUTHWEST BORDER WITH
AZ BY WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING THERE THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENABLE
GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE INCREASING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEHIND MOIST BACKDOOR FRONTS AIDED BY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS. AS A RESULT, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD WILL BE
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MANY PLACES WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD AFTER TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS
SPREAD GULF MOISTURE THERE. EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING INCREASED
SHEAR WITH THE DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE
SOME STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO TURN
SEVERE BY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER, PWATS
NEAR AND ABOVE 1.20" OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY, NEAR AND ABOVE
1.30" WEDNESDAY, AND NEAR AND ABOVE 1.10" THURSDAY WILL ENABLE
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NBM 90TH PERCENTILE QPF INDICATES THE THREE DAY TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL REACH OVER 3" IN A FEW SPOTS FROM THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD, AND OVER 2" ON PARTS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
STRONGER STORMS.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB AROUND 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES
EACH AFTERNOON; EXCEPT FOR ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE
WILL EQUATE TO RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD READINGS MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY, THEN OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL TREND
DOWNWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH DECREASES AND AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. STORM COVERAGE WILL THEN INCREASE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS SATURDAY, AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, ENABLING A
MORE TRADITIONAL PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO SET UP. MODELS VARY
ON HOW WELL THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER
THE WEST COAST.
OTHERWISE, RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
CLOSER TO AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WESTERN AREAS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME, WHILE EASTERN READINGS
CLIMB AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GROW INTO SHRA/TS THRU
3PM. ANY ACTIVITY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS >40KT AND BRIEF
RAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL NM WHERE WIND GUSTS >50KT, LARGE HAIL, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR THRU 8PM. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL ATTEMPT TO SURGE WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY CANYON WINDS
FOR A FEW HOURS. THE LATEST PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS >35KT AT KABQ IS
BELOW 10% OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1259 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN NORTHWEST AREAS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AREAS TODAY, THEN TO A LESSER EXTENT
CENTRAL AND WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE HELP OF
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS FROM THE EASTERN STORMS. SOME LOCALLY STRONG
GAP WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY FROM THE EAST EACH EVENING TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UNTIL
BETTER GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES, WETTING FOOTPRINTS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE PRETTY SMALL WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE TODAY, AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
BESIDES THE RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS OVER WESTERN AREAS, THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 94 63 96 66 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 90 49 92 48 / 10 5 5 10
CUBA............................ 90 58 91 57 / 10 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 92 55 92 56 / 10 5 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 87 55 88 56 / 10 10 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 89 58 91 58 / 20 10 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 90 59 / 10 10 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 89 63 / 10 10 20 20
DATIL........................... 87 60 87 59 / 5 10 20 20
RESERVE......................... 95 58 97 59 / 5 5 5 10
GLENWOOD........................ 101 65 102 66 / 0 5 0 5
CHAMA........................... 84 52 85 51 / 10 10 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 63 86 59 / 20 20 50 40
PECOS........................... 91 58 87 56 / 10 10 50 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 53 84 54 / 40 20 50 50
RED RIVER....................... 84 46 82 45 / 40 20 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 41 80 39 / 20 20 70 70
TAOS............................ 88 53 89 52 / 20 10 50 50
MORA............................ 86 53 82 51 / 20 10 60 60
ESPANOLA........................ 93 61 94 59 / 20 10 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 89 61 88 60 / 10 10 30 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 60 91 59 / 10 10 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 68 95 65 / 10 10 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 98 69 96 65 / 10 10 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 67 98 64 / 10 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 69 98 67 / 10 10 20 30
BELEN........................... 99 66 99 65 / 5 10 20 30
BERNALILLO...................... 98 68 98 66 / 10 10 30 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 65 99 63 / 5 10 20 30
CORRALES........................ 100 68 99 66 / 10 10 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 66 99 65 / 5 10 20 30
PLACITAS........................ 94 67 93 63 / 10 10 30 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 68 97 66 / 10 10 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 100 72 102 70 / 0 5 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 62 88 59 / 10 10 30 50
TIJERAS......................... 94 63 92 60 / 10 10 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 60 92 57 / 20 10 30 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 58 93 55 / 10 10 30 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 90 60 87 56 / 20 10 40 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 60 92 57 / 10 10 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 91 58 / 5 10 30 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 97 68 96 66 / 5 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 91 62 87 58 / 20 5 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 86 55 82 54 / 60 60 80 50
RATON........................... 90 53 85 53 / 60 50 80 60
SPRINGER........................ 93 55 86 54 / 50 30 70 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 56 85 55 / 20 20 70 60
CLAYTON......................... 95 63 85 61 / 70 60 30 40
ROY............................. 93 59 85 58 / 50 40 60 60
CONCHAS......................... 101 65 94 64 / 20 40 40 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 99 65 91 62 / 10 30 30 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 66 93 63 / 20 40 20 40
CLOVIS.......................... 103 67 97 65 / 5 30 10 60
PORTALES........................ 105 68 97 66 / 0 20 10 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 102 67 97 65 / 0 20 10 60
ROSWELL......................... 105 70 101 69 / 0 5 0 40
PICACHO......................... 100 65 95 63 / 10 5 20 30
ELK............................. 96 64 94 61 / 5 5 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ236-238.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...42
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