770
FXUS65 KABQ 290738
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
138 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 130 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- GUSTY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN FAR WESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY, THEN IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY.
DRY STORMS MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW LATE TUESDAY AND WEDENESDAY.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE
(30-50%) CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AN IMPRESSIVE NOCTURNAL MCS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA TONIGHT ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
OF 580-587 DAM, ONE COULD EASILY CONFUSE THIS PATTERN FOR ONE OF
LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. THE MCS WILL HELP TO PUSH SFC MOISTURE UP INTO
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM TODAY, BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
ADVECTED NORTHWARD WILL BE IN THE MID-LEVELS. DESPITE PWATS 150-200%
OF NORMAL IN WESTERN NM, THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MORE THAN A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS. VERY LOCALIZED
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS, BUT VERY SUBTLE
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY DRY LIGHTNING
TODAY. AFTER A SHORT HIATUS, RECORD HIGHS RETURN TODAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK RECORDS AND BY 5+ DEGREES IN SOME AREAS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THE
HISTORICAL HEAT OF LAST WEEK, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM FOR LATE MARCH (12-21 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS).
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GET ADVECTED INTO WESTERN NM ON MONDAY,
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST COVERAGE
WILL FOCUS IN WEST-CENTRAL NM WHERE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE
INTERACTING WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE (ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY). HIGH LCLS AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS
SUGGESTS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON THE TABLE AS WELL. THE
LACK OF SFC MOISTURE ALSO MEANS THAT RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
GROUND SO LIGHTNING COULD SPARK A FEW FIRES. SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN WESTERN NM WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY DECAYING RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EJECT INLAND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ALSO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS. ON
TUESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY SHOWERS COULD OCCUR EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL GENERALLY
BE SMALL OUTSIDE OF EXTREME NORTHERN NM SO ONCE AGAIN FIRE STARTS
FROM DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN.
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WHILE
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (<0.25"), THERE IS A AT LEAST A 50%
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION (0.1") FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-40
(EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE). A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WON'T DO
ANYTHING TO STOP THE SNOW DROUGHT, BUT ANY SNOW IS GOOD NEWS AT THIS
POINT. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
RANGE OF TROUGH DEPTH/SPEEDS.
AFTER THE MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK, DRY AND WINDY WEATHER
RETURNS LATE WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, EXITING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE HAS NOTABLY TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH
THIS TROUGH, WITH THE BASE MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO. AS A RESULT, POPS
HAVE TRENDED LOWER, WINDS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER, AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER. WHILE A COLD FRONT WILL STILL MOVE THROUGH
LATE IN THE WEEK, THE MUCH-COLDER SCENARIO PREVIOUSLY ILLUSTRATED BY
THE ENS APPEARS LESS LIKELY NOW (<25% CHANCE).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT, BECOMING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE
IN MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY AND A A FEW GUSTY
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHWESTERN NM BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF DRY LIGHTNING HAS TRENDED LOWER.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND THE INTERACTION OF
THIS MOISTURE WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE
COVERAGE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, WEST WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING STRONGER AS WELL, CREATING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. LIKELIHOOD OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE OF THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. GUSTY SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN
NM ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH WETTING FOOTPRINTS WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY
LARGER COMPARED TO MONDAY. SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
BE COMMONPLACE AROUND THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CREATING
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. MUCH-NEEDED
MOISTURE IS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN/HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
FAVORING NORTHERN NM WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH (60-90%)
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION.
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER LATE WEEK AS THE BASE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN EASTERN NM ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NM AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 79 46 79 48 / 0 0 10 10
DULCE........................... 75 34 73 35 / 0 0 20 20
CUBA............................ 75 40 73 42 / 0 0 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 77 38 76 44 / 5 0 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 73 43 71 44 / 10 0 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 78 38 75 42 / 5 0 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 75 44 70 42 / 10 5 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 77 49 73 49 / 5 5 40 20
DATIL........................... 73 46 70 44 / 5 5 40 20
RESERVE......................... 81 40 76 37 / 10 10 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 86 44 81 42 / 10 10 30 20
CHAMA........................... 68 36 67 35 / 0 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 73 51 71 48 / 0 0 20 30
PECOS........................... 74 42 74 42 / 0 0 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 42 69 41 / 0 0 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 61 39 60 38 / 0 0 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 68 29 66 34 / 0 0 20 10
TAOS............................ 76 33 75 38 / 0 0 20 10
MORA............................ 73 41 72 42 / 0 0 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 81 41 78 41 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 75 46 74 46 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 77 43 77 44 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 52 78 52 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 50 79 53 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 82 47 81 49 / 0 0 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 50 80 51 / 0 0 20 20
BELEN........................... 82 44 83 47 / 0 0 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 82 49 81 50 / 0 0 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 82 42 82 45 / 0 0 20 20
CORRALES........................ 83 49 81 50 / 0 0 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 44 82 47 / 0 0 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 77 51 77 52 / 0 0 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 83 50 80 51 / 0 0 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 84 50 83 50 / 0 5 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 49 73 48 / 0 0 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 77 49 75 48 / 0 0 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 78 45 76 46 / 0 0 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 36 79 42 / 0 0 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 74 44 75 44 / 0 0 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 45 76 45 / 0 0 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 46 76 46 / 0 0 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 81 49 80 49 / 0 0 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 74 51 75 49 / 5 0 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 75 41 75 42 / 5 0 10 5
RATON........................... 81 37 82 39 / 0 0 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 81 37 81 41 / 0 0 10 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 79 43 79 44 / 0 0 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 86 51 87 52 / 5 5 5 5
ROY............................. 81 45 82 47 / 0 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 89 44 89 50 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 84 45 85 52 / 0 0 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 48 90 51 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 88 49 90 53 / 0 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 88 47 91 51 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 88 43 89 49 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 88 50 91 53 / 0 0 10 5
PICACHO......................... 85 50 85 51 / 10 0 10 5
ELK............................. 83 47 82 47 / 10 0 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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