498
FXUS65 KABQ 190536 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A FEW BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA.
- CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ENTRENCHED, WITH A
WEST COAST RIDGE AND CENTRAL/EASTERN US TROUGH. WARMER CONDITIONS
ACROSS EASTERN NM, DUE IN PART TO WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WILL
BE REPLACED BY COLDER CONDITIONS MONDAY THANKS TO THE NEXT
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WILL BE 15-25
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CREATE A GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK WITH GUSTS
TO BETWEEN 20-25MPH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW TUE/WED AS
THE WEST COAST RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. CHANGES ARE IN STORE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND INVOLVING A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT, PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH ON
APPROACH. THE 12Z CONTROL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A FRIGID AIRMASS SLIDING INTO EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE 1050MB ALONG THE MN/SD
BORDER. AT THE SAME TIME, PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE
UNDERWAY AS A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES FROM OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME
NOTABLE SPREAD BEYOND 00Z SATURDAY, BUT THE SETUP GOING INTO THAT
PERIOD WOULD RESULT IN WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED-TYPE WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST GFS MOS
FOR KROW AND KCVS SHOWING 'Z' FOR FREEING RAIN/SLEET. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT IS ON
THE UPTREND DUE TO DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
IF A COLDER/WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS-OUT, THEN OUR CURRENT POPS ARE
TOO LOW AND OUR TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH FOR THE FRI-SUN PERIOD.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE CLARITY ON THE FRI-SUN PERIOD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT HAS MADE IT TO KRTN-KCAO AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN NM TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS REACHING ~20KTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FROPA THRU EASTERN TERMINALS, KTCC NEAR 07Z AND KROW BY ~13Z.
A MODEST EAST CANYON WIND IS ALSO LIKELY AT KABQ TONIGHT NEAR 12Z
GUSTING TO 20Z. STILL SEEING A LOW CONFIDENCE SIGNAL FOR SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
NM TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SCATTERED DECK AT
KTCC AS A RESULT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT
EASTERN NM, WHICH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN DAY-TO-
DAY TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. AS A RESULT OF THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES, VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WITH MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION ACROSS WESTERN NM. AN
INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, COMBINED WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WILL BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY, CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY POOR
VENTILATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 24 48 21 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 50 14 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 23 47 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 51 13 50 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 51 21 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 21 53 15 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 53 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 33 52 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 53 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 24 63 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 66 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 43 14 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 27 42 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 21 39 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 23 41 19 45 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 34 14 38 / 0 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 37 5 43 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 45 11 48 / 0 5 0 0
MORA............................ 18 37 16 52 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 21 50 16 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 43 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 44 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 50 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 52 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 54 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 30 52 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 23 53 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 53 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 24 53 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 29 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 25 53 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 48 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 28 57 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 42 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 29 44 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 42 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 19 42 12 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 34 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 42 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 44 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 53 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 49 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 13 32 14 52 / 0 5 0 0
RATON........................... 13 34 11 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 15 35 10 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 18 34 15 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 21 34 21 57 / 0 5 0 0
ROY............................. 19 33 14 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 24 39 16 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 24 37 17 57 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 39 16 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 38 18 53 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 23 39 15 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 40 14 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 24 49 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 29 45 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 50 18 61 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...24
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