705  
FXUS65 KABQ 260555 AAB  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
1155 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z TAF CYCLE  
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER  
NEW MEXICO, HOWEVER IN THE LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SOUTHEAST TO  
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS USHERING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO  
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE EXPANDING OVER  
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND EVENTUALLY EAST CENTRAL TO  
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST  
MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THE LOW CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL QUITE REACH AS  
FAR WEST AS KLVS, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT DOES INDEED  
EXPAND FARTHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AS WINDS ALOFT BEGIN  
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY, HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE. LOW  
CLOUDS WILL ERODE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE MID TO LATE  
MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND  
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AFTER 26/21Z, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE  
PREDOMINANTLY DRY (VIRGA) WITH GUSTY WINDS.  
 
52  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...257 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS  
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF RAIN  
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE HIGH  
TERRAIN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE  
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FROM THE  
WEST WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER  
FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EVEN DRIER AIR WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST  
WINDS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY ALONG WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
MANY AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S. WIDESPREAD STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MUCH COLDER  
AIR WITH SOME RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE CRESTING OVER NM TODAY IS DELIVERING ABUNDANT  
SUNSHINE, LOW HUMIDITY, AND LIGHT WINDS. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND  
SURFACE TO 700MB WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER NM. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN  
AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING FROM ROSWELL NORTH TO TUCUMCARI BEFORE  
SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE MILD AGAIN TUESDAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER OVER THE REGION.  
 
HI-RES AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT RECORD MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH  
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PW VALUES NEAR 0.75"  
AS FAR WEST AS SOCORRO. THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST BECOMES VERY TRICKY  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN AT ODDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW ON  
WHETHER AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL REALIZE THE INSTABILITY WHILE A  
60-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HI-RES MODELS ARE  
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP PRECIP AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY HOWEVER THE GFS  
AND GEM SHOW A RATHER LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING  
AROUND THE RGV OVERNIGHT. THE 12Z WPC ENSEMBLE PACKAGE HAS TRENDED  
CLOSER TO THE WETTER GFS AND GEM. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REMAIN  
CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME AND KEEP POPS BELOW LIKELY WITHIN CENTRAL  
NM. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY  
AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WHILE WEAK FORCING  
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
 
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES DRIER AND MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER  
WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE WINDS HAVE TRENDED  
LIGHTER THURSDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE SLOWER AND POISED  
FOR FRIDAY NOW. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY WITH  
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.  
FRIDAY MAY BE THE MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND  
ADVISORIES AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS  
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO A MUCH COLDER  
AIRMASS WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  
 
GUYER  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO SURGE NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD INTO  
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS  
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH INSTABILITY  
THE LIMITING FACTOR. AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING FAVORING THE  
JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN SANGRES. GULF MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CENTRAL  
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED  
TO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND POSSIBLY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER  
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.  
 
WEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 5 TO 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE. WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE  
WEATHER CONDTIONS LIKELY IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ZONE 106) AND  
EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS (ZONE 108). MAIN LIMITING FACTORS TO CRITICAL  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INCLUDE HAINES VALUES IN THE 3 TO 4  
RANGE AS WELL AS 10-HR FUEL MOISTURE ABOVE 11% IN THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF ZONE 108. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
33  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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