726
FXUS65 KABQ 280547 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
- RIVER FLOODING WILL LINGER OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND. WINTER
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ABOVE 10,000 FEET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 359 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS AND WX GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
PRIMARILY BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE LOW CHANCE OF A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CHAVES COUNTY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA, AIDING TO
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR. MESOANALYSIS ALREADY PAINTS SBCAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH. HOWEVER, A LACK OF
WIDESPREAD FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA, WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY REMAINING
ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL IN NATURE. SHOULD THERE BE ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA, THE THREAT WILL SUBSIDE BY 7-9PM
THIS EVENING. HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE SHOW A WEAK SIGNAL FOR PATCHY
FOG TO RETURN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM, PRIMARILY FROM SANTA ROSA TO CLOVIS TO ROSWELL. THE REMNANT
MOISTURE (BOTH SURFACE AND ATMOSPHERIC) POINT TO THIS BEING A
PLAUSIBLE OCCURRENCE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AREAS OF FOG THAT
OCCURRED THIS MORNING. A VERY CONDITIONAL STORM THREAT REMAINS
ACROSS CHAVES COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY WEAKER ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, SIMILAR
TO TODAY, IF A A STORM CAN FORM, IT WILL HAVE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM,
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS EASTERN NM. SIMILAR CAN BE SAID FOR
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS EASTERN NM. FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS LOOK TO
OCCUR TONIGHT, BRINGING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES IN A
FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
THE LONG TERM STARTS TO BRING IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED, ACTIVE WEATHER
PERIOD. THE FIRST WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM VANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS
TO DROP AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR MORE
DIRECT ADVECTION OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE FLOW AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRAG UP THE
REMNANTS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE OVERALL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK (20-30KTS AT
500MB), THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE PARTS
OF EASTERN NM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE MOISTURE SHOW A NEARLY
FULLY MOIST-ADIABAT THROUGHOUT THE AIR COLUMN, SIGNALING LOW TO
NO INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN. CURRENT 24 HOUR NBM
PERCENTILES (ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON) FOR RAINFALL HAVE MOST
LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT ROUGHLY 1-1.5" FROM A LINE OF ROSWELL
TO TUCUMCARI EASTWARD, WITH HIGH END AMOUNTS ENTERING THE 2-3"
RANGE. WHILE THE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, SOILS ARE LIKELY TO BE SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS, LEADING TO A QUICKER ONSET OF
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
A SECOND POCKET OF VORTICITY LAGS BEHIND THE INITIAL SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE, SPARKING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.
THIS SECOND EDITION OF STORMS DOES NOT LOOK TO HAVE THE ENERGY THAT
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS, AND NBM QPF IS MUCH LOWER AS A RESULT.
MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SECOND PUNCH SIT BETWEEN 0.25-
0.5", PRIMARILY AROUND THE GILA REGION IN CATRON COUNTY.
AFTER THE TWO PIECES OF VORTICITY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ATTENTION TURNS TO TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE THAT ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AN
INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LOOKS TO
INTERACT WITH A FAST-APPROACHING LOW COMING OFF OF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE SLATED TO BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
PARTS OF WESTERN NM AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MORE
NORTHERN LOW, AND HOW THE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION, A COMPONENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW LIKELY FAVORS HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR TERRAIN. THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AS WELL AS THE AMOUNTS
THEMSELVES. THE PRIMARY DRIVER IN THIS IS THE PATH OF EACH LOW AND
HOW THEY MAY PHASE WITH EACH OTHER TO BECOME ONE. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF IT WILL
DICTATE THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL. A FASTER, MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
WOULD BRING OVERALL LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE AREA WHILE A SLOWER
ONE WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE RAINFALL. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL FALLS BETWEEN 0.5-1" ACROSS WESTERN NM LOCATIONS, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5" CLOSER TO HIGHER TERRAIN.
HOW THIS LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS NM ALSO DICTATES THE WEATHER TO BEGIN
THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE LOW
BECOMES CLOSED OR REMAINS AN OPEN WAVE, AND THIS WOULD HAVE AN
EFFECT ON ANY POTENTIAL WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. 700MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP TO
JUST ABOVE FREEZING, SO THIS COULD SPELL A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR IS FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT KROW, WITH HIGH (80%)
CONFIDENCE. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
LIGHT FOG/LOW CLOUDS INTO KROW FROM THE PECOS VALLEY, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS FROM 11-15Z. A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM COULD ALSO IMPACT KROW LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW-TO-MEDIUM. LATEST HRRR RUN DOES SUPPORT A
STORM MAKING IT INTO THE VICINITY, SO WILL CARRY A SHORT PROB30
GROUP FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED CHANCE OF A
STORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM EACH AFTERNOON. VENTILATION RATES
GRADUALLY TREND POORER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION FIRST
RETURNS TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING, AND THEN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM BY MID TO LATE WEEKEND. A FEW LOCATIONS ABOVE 10,000FT IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 64 31 67 30 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 64 32 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 33 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 35 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 68 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 64 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 66 37 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 43 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 53 32 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 40 62 43 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 60 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 37 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 31 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 24 56 23 / 0 5 10 0
TAOS............................ 60 32 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 61 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 39 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 40 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 38 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 45 70 48 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 46 71 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 44 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 72 43 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 68 43 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 44 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 41 64 43 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 43 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 32 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 39 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 66 41 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 42 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 69 49 71 50 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 45 67 45 / 5 0 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 63 39 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 68 34 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 32 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 63 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 47 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 66 40 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 74 48 76 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 47 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 52 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 71 52 75 53 / 0 5 0 5
PORTALES........................ 73 51 77 53 / 0 5 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 72 51 75 51 / 5 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 72 50 76 53 / 20 0 20 20
PICACHO......................... 72 46 75 49 / 30 0 30 20
ELK............................. 69 45 73 47 / 5 0 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
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