547
FXUS65 KABQ 090729
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
129 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
MAINLY FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES. TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS
BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS ELONGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A COUPLE
OF CENTROIDS PROJECTED TO TAKE SHAPE BY THE AFTERNOON, ONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST (GA/SC) AREA AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN AZ AND SOUTHERN CA.
THIS WILL ALTER WIND DIRECTIONS ALOFT SOME, BUT VERY LIGHT SPEEDS
WILL PERSIST. AS FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, A WEST NORTHWEST
COMPONENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN NM ZONES WILL LEAD TO DRYING THAT WILL
KEEP STORMS SUPPRESSED THERE. THIS WILL PAINT THE THETA-E RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN OF NM INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
STATE WHERE STORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT WAS SLATED TO ENTER NORTHEASTERN NM, APPEARS TO STALL
IN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY NOT SAG
TOWARD I-40 UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING (PERHAPS REPRESENTING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MORE THAN ANYTHING). THIS COULD REDUCE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, AS BETTER DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD STAY CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NM-CO BORDER. STORMS
MAY ALSO HAVE A HARDER TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN NM LATER THIS EVENING. AS FOR RAINFALL, STORMS WILL
BE SCATTERED, BUT THE REALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE MORE SPARSE
AND ISOLATED FROM SLOW-MOVING CELLS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOUT
4 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE UPPER HIGH CENTROID OVER AZ WILL BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC WITH
CENTRAL HEIGHTS REDUCING A BIT TO AROUND 593-594 DECAMETERS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND DRIER NORTHWESTERLIES
ALOFT INTO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM, CAUSING DEWPOINTS AND
PWATS TO PLUMMET (PWATS FALLING TO 0.35 TO 0.6 INCH IN MUCH OF THESE
AREAS. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN STORM POTENTIAL THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF NM.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE ALONG THE DRY-TO-MOIST GRADIENT SETTING UP
JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT
THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW STABLE THIS AIRMASS WOULD BE. SHOULD
UPDRAFTS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, THE SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS CONTRASTED WITH NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL RE-INTRODUCE BULK
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF NM. OTHERWISE, THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WOULD RETAIN THE MOST INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL,
GENERALLY BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUASHED SOUTHWARD A BIT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
DRIER AIRMASS OF THURSDAY TRANSLATING FARTHER EAST ACROSS REMAINING
NM ZONES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION, BUT DEEPER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN AZ WOULD START TO RE-ENTER FAR WESTERN NM BY
LATE IN THE DAY. LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE
NM-AZ BORDER WHILE MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND HOTTER(AND POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING) TEMPERATURES ARE OBSERVED FARTHER EAST.
FRIDAY'S MOISTURE IN AZ WOULD START TO SEEP FARTHER EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH NUDGES THAT WAY
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STATES. THIS WILL REACQUAINT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER
OFFSHORE ONE IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME THE UPPER HIGH
WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, KEEPING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT OVER NM WHICH WILL FEED FAINT AND
HEAVILY MODIFIED SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR STATE. PWATS FROM THE
LREF ENSEMBLE BLEND ARE GENERALLY ADVERTISED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 TO
1.0 INCH IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE RISING TO 1.1 TO 1.2
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME, BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO
SCATTERED (30-50%) COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REDUCE
CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRETCHING
FROM WEST CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO JUST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT, AND THESE WILL ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A STORM OR TWO NEAR AND
BETWEEN KRTN AND KCAO COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT MOST OF THE
REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BE MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY,
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS THAT WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
STORMS WILL DRIFT INTO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO (KCQC-KSXU-KTCC)
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO
SHIFT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES AT KCVN AND
KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
STORMS WILL BE MOST COMMON TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TO
NORTHEASTERN CORNERS OF NM WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY SAGGING INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SLOW-
MOVING STORMS, BUT SOAKING RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY AND VERY HIT-AND-
MISS IN TRUE MONSOON FASHION. FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED
OFF ON ANY LONGER DURATION GAP/CANYON WINDS IN CENTRAL NM TONIGHT,
AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS NOT PROJECTED TO BE AS INVASIVE AS EARLIER
MODEL RUNS DEPICTED.
STORM COVERAGE WILL DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY INTO THURSDAY, STAYING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE EASTERN PLAINS, AS DRY
AIR WILL BE INVADING REMAINING SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY
LOW DEWPOINTS SPILLING INTO THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
THIS WILL SEND RH PLUMMETING AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ON FRIDAY (RH
FALLING TO 10 TO 20% IN THE AFTERNOON IN MOST ZONES). IN ADDITION,
SOME STIFF WEST NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOONS
THURSDAY AND MORE-SO FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
BEING A BIT MORE COMMON THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED LATELY.
STORMS WILL START TO RETURN TO THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND,
EXPANDING OVER MORE OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL STILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED,
BUT SPOTTY RAINFALL RELIEF WILL PEPPER THE LANDSCAPE DAY-BY-DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 92 56 90 56 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 90 48 89 47 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 89 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 89 53 91 53 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 84 52 86 52 / 40 20 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 88 55 89 55 / 20 5 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 56 85 56 / 50 30 10 0
MAGDALENA....................... 85 62 85 61 / 50 40 20 0
DATIL........................... 81 57 83 56 / 60 40 20 0
RESERVE......................... 90 57 90 56 / 60 40 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 95 61 95 61 / 70 50 40 5
CHAMA........................... 84 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 85 61 85 60 / 20 10 5 0
PECOS........................... 87 55 87 54 / 50 10 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 52 83 50 / 10 10 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 75 46 73 45 / 30 20 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 39 80 37 / 50 30 20 0
TAOS............................ 88 53 87 50 / 10 10 10 0
MORA............................ 83 52 83 51 / 60 20 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 93 61 92 59 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 88 59 88 58 / 20 10 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 59 90 57 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 65 93 65 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 67 93 67 / 20 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 66 95 65 / 20 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 95 64 95 64 / 20 20 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 96 65 95 64 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 62 94 62 / 20 20 5 0
CORRALES........................ 97 65 96 64 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 62 94 61 / 20 20 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 92 64 91 63 / 20 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 66 95 65 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 96 69 96 69 / 30 30 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 60 88 60 / 30 30 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 89 61 88 62 / 30 30 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 59 89 59 / 30 30 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 91 54 91 53 / 40 30 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 87 57 87 58 / 60 30 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 59 88 60 / 50 30 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 58 87 59 / 50 30 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 64 89 65 / 50 40 30 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 57 82 58 / 60 30 60 0
CAPULIN......................... 81 55 80 54 / 40 50 30 20
RATON........................... 86 53 85 51 / 50 40 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 89 54 87 52 / 50 30 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 55 84 54 / 60 20 20 5
CLAYTON......................... 89 62 85 61 / 50 40 20 20
ROY............................. 88 59 85 59 / 50 40 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 96 65 93 65 / 40 60 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 65 91 65 / 40 50 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 96 66 93 67 / 30 50 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 97 67 93 65 / 20 30 20 20
PORTALES........................ 98 67 94 66 / 20 30 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 97 67 94 67 / 20 50 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 99 69 97 69 / 20 30 20 10
PICACHO......................... 93 64 91 63 / 30 30 30 10
ELK............................. 89 59 87 59 / 40 20 40 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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