370
FXUS65 KABQ 250003 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RECORD AND NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY STRONG
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE WILL ALSO BE A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
44
PREV DISCUSSION...251 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECORD
AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCALES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DRY AND GUSTY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DESCEND
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK, AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS DIP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST STARTING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO IN THE SHORT TERM. THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RULE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND BEYOND. FEEBLE HIGH BASED
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO GROW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE A LITTLE
VIRGA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH NEAR RECORD OR
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE! AROUND TWO DOZEN SITES COULD
SET RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR NEW MEXICO, WITH MANY LOCALES REACHING NEAR RECORD AND
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING RECORD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. A DRY BACKDOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DESCEND INTO EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 10-15 DEGREES AND SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE RGV. GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS AND EASTWARD, WITH GAP WINDS
REACHING THE RGV ON MONDAY. MOVING INTO TUESDAY, A POTENT STORM
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE MIDWEST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR TIGHT UPPER
LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS AMPLIFIED
SETUP WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TO
IMPACT NM THROUGH THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL AS
ADDITIONAL BACKDOOR FRONTS DIP DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CO WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
CHJ/12
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE GREAT SOUTHWEST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE THROUGH SATURDAY. MANY RECORD HIGHS COULD BE
BROKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME COOLING TO THE
EAST SUNDAY. A STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PROGRESS WEST ALL
THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY SUNRISE MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
CHJ
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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