935
FXUS65 KABQ 131807
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1107 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1051 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
- SEVERAL REPEATED, WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL CREATE BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOLING OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND MONDAY. DESPITE THESE FRONTS,
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM, NOT JUST DURING THE SHORT TERM, BUT ALSO
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME PREVAILS. A VERY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS SWELLING OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL
PERSIST NEAR OR JUST EAST OF NM, OFFERING SEVERAL DRY AND MOSTLY
WEAK SURFACE FRONTS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE FIRST SUCH FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO NM TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN A BIT GUSTY IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOCALES ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WITH WEST TX
OBSERVING A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH BY EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES, BUT WILL STILL
STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY. SNOW MELT IS STILL
OCCURRING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SAN JUAN BASIN / NORTHWEST PLATEAU, SO
PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40'S ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT
AMBITIOUS. A FEW BATCHES OF LOWER BASED CLOUDS WILL STREAM SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO, NORTHEAST NM, AND THE NEARBY PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT BUILDS IN, BUT OTHERWISE JUST HIGH, FAIR
WEATHER CIRRUS WILL BE OBSERVED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
BRING SOME MODERATE WEST OR NORTHWEST BREEZES TO MANY ZONES. WINDS
ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT VERY HIGH GUSTS, AS 700 MB WINDS ARE
GENERALLY PROJECTED TO STAY WITHIN A 15 TO 30 KT RANGE, BUT THE
WESTERLIES WILL BE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, OFFERING
WARMING VIA COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
DWINDLING RECENT SNOW PACK WILL RUN JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WHILE REMAINING AREAS, ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES, SURGE UP
NEARLY 15 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST WILL THEN SEND OUR
SUBSEQUENT FRONT INTO NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME BREEZINESS WILL
AGAIN ACCOMPANY, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, BUT THERE WILL
BE A DEARTH OF ASSOCIATED CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO AVERAGE ON FRIDAY IN EASTERN ZONES
WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
A REPEATED FRONTAL INTRUSION ARRIVES SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER ONE
ON MONDAY, ALL WHILE DRY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER NM. AGAIN, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
ZONES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS SATURDAY AND MONDAY WITH A TEMPORARY
SPIKE IN BETWEEN ON SUNDAY.
IT WILL LIKELY BE WELL INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY, HOWEVER IT STILL
APPEARS TO REMAIN DRY PER LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING, GIVEN LA NINA CONDITIONS AND THE
NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION, BUT RECENT
SNOWPACK WILL UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE TO MELT AND SUBLIMATE AT A
RAPID PACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST
HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING IN PERIODICALLY. BREEZES
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE GUSTS TO 15 TO 25
KT AS A DRY AND FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1051 AM MST TUE JAN 13 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES OFTEN RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES VIA WEAK FRONTS.
WINDS WILL TURN BREEZY DURING THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES, BUT NO
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL KEEP ANY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REPEATED
DAYS OF POOR MIXING WILL BE COMMON, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, AND MANY LOCATIONS WILL SUFFER FROM POOR SMOKE VENTILATION AND
DISPERSION, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 40 23 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 21 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 48 20 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 17 52 16 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 20 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 54 19 54 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 21 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 54 30 51 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 26 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 61 23 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 25 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 51 24 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 32 48 30 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 55 26 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 25 46 23 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 19 42 15 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 7 44 4 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 52 20 50 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 58 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 24 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 26 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 34 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 55 33 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 27 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 56 24 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 30 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 23 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 24 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 33 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 30 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 31 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 29 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 22 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 28 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 28 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 28 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 54 24 43 22 / 0 0 10 0
RATON........................... 57 23 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 22 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 63 33 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 59 28 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 66 30 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 31 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 31 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 31 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 30 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 31 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 29 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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