112
FXUS65 KABQ 232355 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 445 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
- MINOR IMPACTS FROM WINTER WEATHER MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
EVENING.
- LOW VISIBILITY FROM FOG WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK
AFTER THANKSGIVING WILL WANT TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER TRAVEL
ROUTES OR PLANS, AS THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS A POTENT
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE 564DM H5 LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND OVER NAVAJO
NATION CONTINUES TO FILL WITH A DRYSLOT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM AND MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM THIS HOUR. THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VORTICITY
MAXIMUM HAS PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION FROM HERE ON
OUT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE H5 LOW OVER WESTERN,
NORTHERN, AND CENTRAL NM IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE SNOW ABOVE 8,500' HAS FALLEN ALREADY WITH
ANOTHER FEW INCHES LIKELY B/W NOW AND THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GROUND-BASED WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
REACHING AS LOW AS LAS VEGAS, NM WHICH IS ALREADY QUICKLY MELTING.
AS SUCH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN IN-TACT WITH AN EXPIRATION AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE H5 LOW AS IT EXITS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS MONDAY MORNING.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND HOWEVER WITH INDICATIONS STILL
PRESENT THAT LIGHT SURFACE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP ANCHOR
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CLEAR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTHWESTERLIES DEVELOPING. PEAK GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO VAUGHN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
TUESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO RESOLVE A CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS SENDING DOWN A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN NM. THIS WILL
PAUSE THE WARMING TREND THERE KNOCKING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 5F TO
10F RELATIVE TO MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. A STRAY LIGHT
SHOWER MAY TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON/BARTLETT
MESAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS SOME EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW,
BUT THIS IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (~10%). THE SURFACE FRONT ADVANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND TOWARD THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND
LOWER RELATIVE TO TUESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HWY 60. AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT
FROM THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT.
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER IS IN-STORE FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE STATE. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY WITH
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FAVORED.
SOUTHWESTERLIES BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
POLAR JET PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODEL SUITES THAT THIS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING TROUGHING
PATTERN BRINGING WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIETY
IN TERMS OF STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT WINTER STORM SYSTEM. BUT
CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR DETERIORATING WINTER CONDITIONS ARRIVING INTO
THE REGION OF AZ/NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAVELERS WOULD BE PRUDENT
TO STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRENDS AND HAVE ALTERNATE
ROUTES AND OPTIONS TO TAKE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
OVERALL, THE TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS AT
THE TERMINALS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER EAST-CENTRAL CO CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, BRINGING
PRECIP AT TAF SITES TO AN END BY 02-03Z. RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR
MODEL SUGGEST THAN A THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT KTCC WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
IS AT KGUP, WHERE LIGHT WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BRING DECREASING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY STARTING AROUND 06Z.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING, BUT LOWER ON GROUND MIST/LIGHT FOG, AS NBM 5.0
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY FALLING BELOW 3SM ARE ONLY ABOUT
10-15%. PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LLWS AT KLVS
OVERNIGHT ONCE SURFACE WINDS DE-COUPLE AND STRONGER NW WINDS ALOFT
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. WINTER WEATHER
CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLIES
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, HUMIDITY STAYS WELL ABOVE ANY FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.
WINDS ABATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK UNTIL FRIDAY WITH A DRY COLD
FRONT BRINGING A 5-10 DEGREE DROP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 52 28 51 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 26 48 20 49 / 40 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 47 22 48 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 26 52 20 52 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 48 25 52 / 30 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 28 54 22 54 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 50 25 53 / 20 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 34 55 31 55 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 31 50 27 53 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 24 60 22 62 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 64 23 68 / 10 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 44 16 45 / 50 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 48 28 48 / 30 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 30 51 28 53 / 20 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 46 22 45 / 30 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 39 17 39 / 40 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 45 12 45 / 30 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 26 49 20 49 / 30 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 52 24 52 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 29 54 23 55 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 33 49 30 50 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 51 26 51 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 39 55 35 55 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 57 31 58 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 60 26 60 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 57 32 58 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 26 59 22 58 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 35 58 29 58 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 24 58 20 58 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 34 58 29 58 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 58 21 58 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 36 53 32 53 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 35 57 30 58 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 63 33 61 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 33 49 29 50 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 33 50 30 52 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 31 52 27 53 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 27 53 23 55 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 50 28 50 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 31 53 28 54 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 53 28 56 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 34 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 52 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 27 51 25 45 / 5 0 0 5
RATON........................... 25 57 23 51 / 10 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 24 58 21 54 / 10 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 55 25 52 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 58 33 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 29 58 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 33 63 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 65 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 64 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 65 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 36 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 38 67 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 34 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 29 63 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR NMZ210-
211-213-214.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...53-SCHROEDER
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