126
FXUS65 KABQ 121143 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
- HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT RELATED
ILLNESSES. TEMPERATURES COULD TIE OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WIND
GUSTS, BRIEF RAIN, AND BLOWING DUST TODAY.
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
PWATS INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AS MOISTURE FROM AZ
MOVED NORTHEAST INTO NM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN NM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THERE IS STILL A VERY
DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVING EAST
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS DRY AIR WILL MIX INTO THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY ON SLIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZES (MIN HUMIDITY <20% MANY
AREAS). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO FORM OVER THE AREA
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND GUSTY WITH DCAPE >1000 J/KG. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHWEST THRU EASTERN CO WILL MAKE
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEAST NM BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY
MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, MORE VERY HOT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH SEVERAL RECORDS LIKELY.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY WASHOUT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES EAST AND 700-500MB LAYER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER NM. STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN OVER THE REGION WITH PWATS SURGING ABOVE 1" MOST AREAS.
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WESTWARD
RIDGE EXTENSION INTO SOUTHERN NM FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER TX BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS MAY FORCE THE GREATER COVERAGE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WHILE SOUTHEAST
NM REMAINS HOT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH GETS KICKED MUCH FARTHER
EAST WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PAC NW INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. THE DOOR OPENS FOR A MONSOON BURST PATTERN TO
SURGE NORTH INTO NM WITH 90TH %TILE PWATS FOR MID SEPTEMBER AT
KABQ (>1.2"). SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ARE SHOWN BY EXTENDED MODELS
MOVING NORTH FROM MX WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR OUR REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND HELPS TO PROVIDE GREATER FORCING/ASCENT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE 4-DAY QPF IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION PROGGED TO RECEIVE >1.25". LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM 90TH %TILE AND WPC ARE >3". THE FLOOD
RISK WILL INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING DAY OF HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER,
IT IS STILL EXTREMELY DRY IN MANY AREAS SO IMPACTS MAY BE CONFINED
TO AREAS WITH TRAINING STORMS, BURN SCARS, URBAN AREAS, AND LOW-
LYING AREAS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SLIGHTLY BUT IS
STILL ONLY MODERATE GIVEN THE CONSISTENTLY UNDERWHELMING
PERFORMANCE OF THIS MONSOON SEASON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT
TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH GREATER
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A SHARP NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM BY 8AM THEN
SHIFT SOUTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY 12PM. GUSTS OF 15-25KT WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM BETWEEN 1PM AND 4PM
THEN MOVE EAST WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS >35KT, BRIEF
RAIN, AND SOME LIGHTNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NORTHEAST NM
MAY MOVE SOUTHWEST AGAIN TONIGHT TOWARD THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH
PATCHY LOW CIGS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 AM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TODAY WILL NOT BE AS DRY AS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT MANY AREAS WILL
STILL SEE MIN HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20% WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 15
TO 25 MPH AND VERY HOT TEMPS (RECORD HIGHS). ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
THEN MOVE EAST INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS AND EASTERN NM WITH SMALL
FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAINFALL.
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A BETTER TAP OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL. A MONSOON
BURST PATTERN MAY IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER IN THIS PATTERN
WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN MANY AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 61 89 61 / 0 5 10 60
DULCE........................... 89 47 88 49 / 0 0 30 70
CUBA............................ 87 56 86 56 / 5 0 30 60
GALLUP.......................... 85 55 85 54 / 10 5 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 82 53 82 52 / 20 10 40 40
GRANTS.......................... 86 56 86 55 / 20 10 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 84 57 84 56 / 20 20 50 40
MAGDALENA....................... 86 61 85 61 / 30 20 30 30
DATIL........................... 82 56 81 56 / 30 20 40 30
RESERVE......................... 89 56 88 57 / 40 10 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 96 61 94 63 / 20 20 10 40
CHAMA........................... 83 51 80 50 / 0 0 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 62 85 61 / 10 10 20 40
PECOS........................... 89 57 87 57 / 20 5 20 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 56 83 56 / 5 0 10 20
RED RIVER....................... 82 42 79 44 / 5 5 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 82 40 80 43 / 10 0 20 20
TAOS............................ 90 52 88 54 / 5 0 10 30
MORA............................ 86 54 84 54 / 20 5 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 94 61 92 61 / 10 10 10 40
SANTA FE........................ 89 63 87 62 / 10 5 10 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 60 90 60 / 10 5 5 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 68 91 68 / 10 5 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 66 93 66 / 5 5 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 65 95 66 / 5 10 5 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 95 68 94 68 / 5 5 5 40
BELEN........................... 95 64 95 64 / 5 5 5 30
BERNALILLO...................... 97 66 95 66 / 5 5 5 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 63 95 63 / 5 5 5 30
CORRALES........................ 97 67 95 67 / 5 5 5 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 65 95 65 / 5 10 5 40
PLACITAS........................ 92 65 90 65 / 5 5 5 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 66 93 67 / 5 5 5 40
SOCORRO......................... 97 69 97 68 / 10 10 5 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 61 85 60 / 10 5 10 30
TIJERAS......................... 92 62 89 62 / 10 5 10 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 93 59 90 58 / 10 5 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 56 92 56 / 10 5 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 59 88 59 / 10 5 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 90 59 89 59 / 10 0 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 89 59 89 59 / 10 5 5 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 92 65 / 10 5 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 86 60 85 59 / 20 5 60 5
CAPULIN......................... 83 55 87 58 / 10 5 10 5
RATON........................... 89 53 90 56 / 10 5 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 92 54 92 57 / 10 5 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 88 56 87 57 / 20 5 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 89 60 94 67 / 10 0 0 5
ROY............................. 91 59 90 63 / 20 5 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 99 64 99 69 / 20 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 64 94 67 / 10 10 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 66 99 70 / 10 10 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 101 69 99 68 / 10 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 102 70 100 69 / 5 20 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 101 67 99 69 / 10 20 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 103 70 101 70 / 10 10 5 5
PICACHO......................... 97 65 95 63 / 30 10 30 5
ELK............................. 95 61 93 60 / 30 5 30 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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