691
FXUS65 KABQ 010842
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
142 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
- SLICK ROADS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO
BORDER THIS MORNING, WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL COME TO AN END
DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL AGAIN MAKE ROADS SLICK IN MANY LOCATIONS
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF I-25 AND I-40 FROM MORIARTY TO CLINES CORNERS, LAS
VEGAS, AND RATON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE TRAVEL OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY
BECOME DIFFICULT.
- A STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST CROSSWIND WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER
EAST CENTRAL AREAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER WEST AND NORTHWEST CROSSWIND WILL IMPACT TRAVEL OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUING IN THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE CO BORDER UNTIL 9 AM OR SO THIS MORNING, AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EAST OF NM. THEN, SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY'S READINGS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS,
TODAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS A
FEW TO AROUND 13 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW
TO 16 DEGREES ABOVE TODAY'S READINGS, VARYING FROM 5 DEGREES BELOW
30-YEAR AVERAGES NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS TO AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES
ABOVE THE AVERAGE ON PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO AROUND 40 MPH
MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTWARD
DOWN THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
THANKS TO A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF A 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING NEAR THE CO
BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS EAST OF NM.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY TRENDING AWAY FROM SCENARIOS WHERE
THE UPPER TROUGH FORMS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BEFORE CROSSING, BUT A MINORITY OF MEMBERS
STILL INDICATE THIS WILL HAPPEN. AS A RESULT, THE SNOW FORECAST IS
A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN WHAT WE WERE FORECASTING YESTERDAY FOR THE
STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH
A 30-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM RATON TO GLORIETA
PASS, AND A 30-60% CHANCE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM TIJERAS
CANYON TO SANTA ROSA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 (WITH CHANCES ONLY AROUND 10-20% IN
MOUNTAINS FARTHER SOUTH), EXCEPT FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF OVER 5
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS, AND 40-80% IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO REACH AROUND 8 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH MODESTLY GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN
MOST PLACES ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 5-20 DEGREES BELOW
1991-2020 AVERAGES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, DRY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY WHEN A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CLIPS NORTHEAST NM. GUSTS IN
THE 25-45 MPH RANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND
WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR SOME COOLER READINGS
ON SUNDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST AND FAR
EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
A SW/NE ORIENTED PACIFIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL
RAPIDLY FALL APART TONIGHT AFTER 09Z AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CONT.
DIVIDE, HOWEVER BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY WITH
IT'S PASSAGE FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40. A FEW FLURRIES COULD DEVELOP
AROUND 12Z AT KABQ AND KAEG, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF FLIGHT CAT
REDUCTIONS IS LOW (<20%). SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER 15Z
TOMORROW AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM AND A LIGHT N/NW BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MST MON DEC 1 2025
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW POCKETS OF NEAR 15 PERCENT
HUMIDITY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AREAS. THESE WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THAT ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY,
STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY, BUT
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE IN THE 30-45 PERCENT RANGE BY THEN.
OTHERWISE, AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST EACH DAY UNTIL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHEN POOR VENTILATION LOOKS TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD. THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT
IN VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT, THEN VENT RATES WILL COME UP IN MANY
WESTERN LOCATIONS AS WELL ON SUNDAY WHILE POCKETS OF POOR
VENTILATION PERSIST NEAR THE CO BORDER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 21 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 42 10 44 15 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 39 15 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 13 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 18 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 13 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 18 53 23 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 25 53 30 / 10 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 44 21 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 53 19 58 24 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 60 24 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 10 39 15 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 22 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 20 48 23 / 20 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 16 43 20 / 30 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 12 35 15 / 30 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 5 41 10 / 20 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 41 11 45 16 / 20 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 17 51 20 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 17 50 19 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 23 45 26 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 19 45 23 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 28 48 32 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 23 50 28 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 22 53 26 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 23 50 28 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 19 53 22 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 23 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 18 52 22 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 22 52 26 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 20 52 23 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 44 26 48 29 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 23 51 27 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 25 58 28 / 10 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 23 44 26 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 23 45 27 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 20 47 23 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 13 49 18 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 20 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 21 48 27 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 22 49 26 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 26 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 26 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 15 51 20 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 12 53 19 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 43 12 56 20 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 18 54 23 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 40 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 16 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 18 62 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 22 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 47 21 63 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 48 22 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 20 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 18 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 58 23 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 57 24 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 57 23 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR NMZ210-
213.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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