991
FXUS65 KABQ 191919 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1219 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEK AS A FEW BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
THE BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIFFICULT TO SEVERE DRIVING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL MAKING SLOW WESTWARD PROGRESS
INTO CENTRAL NM AS OF MID DAY AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, CREATING EAST
CANYON WINDS WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE
AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE COLD AIRMASS WILL BE REPLACED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
NM ON TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE 15-25 DEGREES
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM COMPARED TO TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ONE WILL
BRING ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 0-10 DEGREES OF COOLING
RELATIVE TO TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES. VERY DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY UNDER WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
ALL EYES ARE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHEAST
NM LATE THURSDAY, THEN SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY
AND OOZE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND ARE SHOWING DECENT RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY FROM YESTERDAY'S 12Z CYCLE AND LAST NIGHT'S 00Z RUNS.
OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN FOR FRI/SAT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM, ALTHOUGH WE'RE LAGGING BEHIND THE
MOS AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
TRENDING UP AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE BELOW FREEZING INTO SUNDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE RAMPING UP AT THE SAME TIME, WHILE A PACIFIC LOW MOVES
FROM OFFSHORE OF SOCAL TO OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. FORCING FROM
UPSLOPE WINDS BEHIND BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL ENSUE FRI/SAT, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS.
LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO A MORE SHALLOW AND MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS, BUT HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS MAY SEE A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FRI/SAT, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, SLEET AND SNOW. THAT SAID, THE
LATEST MODELING FAVORS MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SAT/SUN DUE TO MODEL
SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NW. LASTLY, FREEZING FOG
IS A TYPICAL FEATURE OF THESE COLD ARCTIC AIRMASSES AS THEY SPREAD
WEST INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WE EXPECT THAT WILL BE THE CASE WITH THIS EVENT
AS WELL. ALL THAT SAID, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE (50-70%) THAT
DIFFICULT TO SEVERE WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL MATERIALIZE
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM FRI/SAT AND THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIAL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS PERSIST
LATE THIS MORNING BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BETWEEN KTCC, KLVS
AND KCAO. A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KABQ
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AIRPORT WEATHER
WARNING CRITERIA. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A COUPLE OF
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS CREATING MIXED CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY AND THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST INTO CENTRAL NM THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP
AT THE SAME TIME, RESULTING IN HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. VENT RATES WILL DIP AND BECOME POOR
AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND THEN CONTINUE TO BE
POOR ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 46 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 15 48 14 48 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 18 47 18 48 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 51 10 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 50 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 14 53 13 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 53 19 56 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 25 51 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 52 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 59 20 62 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 15 42 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 24 47 25 47 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 18 49 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 15 44 17 44 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 14 37 16 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 2 41 5 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 14 47 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 16 50 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 17 52 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 47 22 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 19 49 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 27 50 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 26 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 53 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 24 52 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 19 52 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 24 54 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 53 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 18 52 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 26 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 53 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 25 54 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 23 46 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 25 48 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 21 50 23 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 11 52 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 17 47 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 19 49 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 19 50 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 25 52 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 21 49 27 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 14 51 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 10 53 13 49 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 8 56 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 54 16 52 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 20 58 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 14 54 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 15 61 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 18 58 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 15 59 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 18 53 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 13 54 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 15 55 21 54 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 54 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 20 57 26 56 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 18 57 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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