315
FXUS65 KABQ 242319 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 453 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
- RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MINOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS.
- RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND MAY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR LARGE VEHICLES PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NM
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE CANYON GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
ANOTHER PERIOD OF RECORD HEAT BEGINS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM DUE TO A ~590 DAM HIGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND THE NM
BOOTHEEL. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH. SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
FROM FARMINGTON TO TAOS TO CLINES CORNERS BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES FURTHER INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AS THE 591 DAM UPPER HIGH CENTROID MOVES OVER EL PASO.
MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM WITH LOCATIONS IN THE ESPANOLA AND MIDDLE AND LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LOOKING AT MODERATE (40-60%) PROBABILITIES OF
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 90 DEGREES! LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A HIGH AROUND 100 AT ROSWELL! MONTHLY RECORDS SET
LATE LAST WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FLATTENS
AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO 589 DAM ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NM-CO BORDER. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP
TO SLIGHTLY LOWER UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND COOL TEMPERATURES BY
AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BEAT DAILY RECORDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. IT
WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HOT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN ROSWELL.
THE STRONGEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. THESE STRONG WEST
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
AROUND 4 TO 7 PERCENT, AND EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
FIRE SPREAD FOR THESE AREAS.
BY THURSDAY EVENING A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT, IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL ENTER FAR NORTHEAST NM AND QUICKLY SWEEP
DOWN THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SURGING
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AND TO THE AZ BORDER BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT, NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS WILL BE VERY
GUSTY TO STRONG. LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITIES (30 TO 50%) OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 50 MPH EXIST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS NEAR CLOVIS
AND PORTALES AND GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, INCLUDING
SOUTHEAST SANTA FE, EASTERN ABQ, AND CARRIZOZO. A LOW PROBABILITY
(10%) FOR HIGH WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
CLOVIS AND PORTALES AREA FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO AROUND 8 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND AROUND 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, FAR WESTERN NM WILL
SEE MINIMAL IMPACTS FROM THE BACKDOOR FRONT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS AROUND RECORD VALUES FOR LATE MARCH, SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL WARM BACK UP TO
READINGS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
INCREASES AND SPREADS EAST TO CENTRAL NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
DRY LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SOME WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 0.15 INCHES ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. SIMILAR COVERAGE OF A MIX OF
DRY AND WET SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTINESS
WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DUE TO RECORD HEAT, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY...
RECORD WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO BORDER WILL
INCREASE WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WEST WINDS COMBINED
WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 4 TO 7
PERCENT, AND RECORD ERC VALUES WILL RESULT IN RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR
THESE AREAS. A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SURFACE MOISTURE ACROSS THESE
PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. THE HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
VIRGA AND DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING SCATTERED VIRGA AND DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN POTENTIAL FUTURE FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE VERY
DRY ANTECEDENT FUELS. POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF UP 50 MPH
FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 89 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 37 86 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 84 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 87 35 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 83 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 89 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 85 41 80 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 47 83 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 37 91 34 89 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 94 38 92 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 39 80 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 84 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 85 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 82 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 41 72 43 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 28 80 30 74 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 38 87 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 85 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 47 91 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 85 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 91 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 94 50 92 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 92 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 46 92 47 91 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 52 93 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 44 93 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 50 93 51 90 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 44 92 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 56 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 94 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 85 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 85 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 90 39 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 86 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 52 87 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 87 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 91 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 85 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 46 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 41 89 41 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 91 42 88 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 88 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 50 89 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 47 96 49 97 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 52 94 52 94 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 48 98 54 99 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 97 54 98 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 48 99 51 99 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 97 50 98 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 101 52 100 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 95 54 94 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 52 94 52 93 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-122>126.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page