750
FXUS65 KABQ 152336 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING, HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER EASTERN AREAS.
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS THAT INCREASE THE RISK
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TUESDAY, WILL
EXPAND TO MORE OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND
ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGE
DAILY RECORDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION IS MATURING
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN ISSUED NEAR TAOS AND SANTA FE. MUCH OF EASTERN NM
REMAINS IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA ON THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK AND THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE NAM FORECAST OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 40-45KTS, MUCAPE OF 2,500J/KG AND LIS OF -6C. THE LATEST
CAMS ROLL THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH 03Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A STORM OR TWO TO LINGER ALONG THE
TX BORDER THROUGH 05Z.
INCREASING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING HOTTER CONDITIONS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. DEEP LAYER
MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA BY MID/LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 5 OR SO
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JUNE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND BRING GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS YEAR, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORD VALUES AT A NUMBER OF
LOCALES. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) THAT A ROUND OF HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AND A LOW CHANCE (10-20%)
THAT AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CHAVES COUNTY
PLAINS WHERE ROSWELL WILL APPROACH A HIGH OF 110 DEGREES. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BRINGING MOISTURE UP INTO CATRON
COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE
A ROUND OF MOSTLY DRY STORMS, FAVORING STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
OVER WETTING (>0.10") RAIN. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO
REPLENISH MOISTURE AND TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS
EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY. A ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION IS FORECAST LATE THURSDAY, BUT PWATS WILL BE LOW SO
EXPECT A MIX OF WET/DRY CONVECTION THAT FAVORS STRONG/ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARD. THE FRONT WILL
SURGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY EVENING,
CREATING A GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. FRIDAY'S ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE RAINFALL PRODUCTIVE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BRINGING BACK AN ELEVATED
BURN SCAR FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN LINCOLN COUNTY. HOWEVER, VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE ACROSS WESTERN NM
LATE DAY FRIDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER THIS WEEKEND,
CONFINING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE TX/OK BORDERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
THROUGH EASTERN NM, A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH QUAY
COUNTY INTO CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GUSTS BETWEEN 50-55KTS
HAVE BEEN RECORDED WITH THIS LINE AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECTING THIS LINE TO REACH KCVN BETWEEN 01-02Z. A FEW STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR KROW BETWEEN 01-
04Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THIS. ALL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 04-06Z. ELSEWHERE, BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT, LEAVING RATHER LIGHT WINDS
OVERALL AT TAF SITES. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT KROW THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. KROW ALSO HAS CHANCES TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING. THE BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE BETWEEN 12-15Z, BUT COULD
BEGIN AS EARLY AS 09Z. CLOUDS ERODE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
MORNING TOMORROW AS GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 35-40KTS MAY BE
OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHWEST NM NEAR KFMN, WITH LESSER GUSTS
ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM, THEN EXPAND TO INCLUDE CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY...
ONE MORE ROUND OF WETTING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS, WHILE WESTERN AREAS SEE DRY
STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE CREATING NEW IGNITIONS. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND HEATING
WITH DEEP LAYER MIXING THAT WILL CREATE STRONG WIND GUSTS BY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU, FOLLOWED BY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY
AND A MORE EXPANSIVE CRITICAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL EXTEND
INTO CENTRAL NM. MANY HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY TO EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY,
WHILE WESTERN NM REMAINS HOT AND DRY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA
SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS. A COMBINATION OF DRY AND WETTING STORMS
ARE FORECAST FRIDAY, BEFORE DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS,
BUT WORTH MONITORING FOR CHANGE AND WOULD BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS
WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 95 58 99 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 91 45 94 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 89 56 91 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 90 55 91 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 51 93 56 94 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 90 59 90 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 91 65 93 / 20 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 89 62 89 / 10 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 94 51 93 / 5 0 0 30
GLENWOOD........................ 54 98 55 97 / 10 0 0 20
CHAMA........................... 44 85 45 88 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 89 63 92 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 50 89 56 92 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 85 52 88 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 42 76 46 80 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 80 41 84 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 48 88 52 91 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 48 85 54 90 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 95 59 98 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 89 59 93 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 93 57 96 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 94 68 98 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 96 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 98 62 102 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 96 64 100 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 99 63 102 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 97 63 101 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 57 98 61 101 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 97 63 101 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 99 61 102 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 61 94 65 97 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 96 65 100 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 99 71 104 / 20 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 90 61 92 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 92 62 95 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 92 60 95 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 93 55 96 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 89 58 92 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 92 60 95 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 55 91 60 95 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 93 65 97 / 20 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 55 84 60 90 / 30 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 85 53 93 / 30 5 0 0
RATON........................... 47 90 51 97 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 48 91 52 98 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 89 57 94 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 89 61 100 / 30 10 0 0
ROY............................. 52 88 57 97 / 20 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 97 61 104 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 95 64 101 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 96 65 105 / 30 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 93 64 103 / 40 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 94 65 104 / 40 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 96 64 104 / 40 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 98 65 109 / 20 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 94 64 100 / 30 5 0 0
ELK............................. 55 89 61 95 / 20 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ101.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-106-120-124-125.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page