436
FXUS65 KABQ 011127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 424 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY, TUESDAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE BEGINS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 MST SUN MAR 1 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.
WEAK RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES, EXCEPT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LARGELY MIX OUT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM TODAY,
HOWEVER ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE REINFORCED THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NM. OTHERWISE, FILTERED SUN AND A FEW BREEZES WILL BE
THE RULE TODAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL AREAS WHERE GULF MOISTURE RETURNS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STUBBORN TO MIX OUT ON MONDAY AND LOW CLOUDS
MAY LINGER WELL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE LOWER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. MEANWHILE, AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
WILL ALLOW WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 MST SUN MAR 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS UT
AND CO MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDING
SQUARELY OVER NM, WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
TO A MODEST 998-1000MB, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 600 MB WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GET WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT FOR MOST AREAS. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MONDAY'S HIGHS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO KS/NE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE ASSOCIATED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN NM. A FEW BREEZES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AND THE NEXT. THEREFORE, WEDNESDAY WILL BE RATHER QUIET WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, VERY DRY
AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY, THE
NEXT TROUGH OR WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH THE UT/CO BORDER,
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AREAWIDE ACROSS NM. WIND SPEEDS MAY
TREND HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WHILE THE INITIAL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER CO THURSDAY NIGHT, SECONDARY
ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHWESTWARD, FORMING A RETROGRADING CUT OFF LOW
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RETROGRADING LOW WILL HELP DRAG A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS WELL. THIS FRONT MAY BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION, THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING SO FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST, CHANCES ARE MINIMAL (10-30%). TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN TO EARLY MARCH NORMALS FOR FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY IMPROVE LATER NEXT
WEEK ONCE THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 424 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30KT, STRONGEST AROUND KCQC, WILL BE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 109 MST SUN MAR 1 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
WESTERLY BREEZES TODAY, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE ERC
PERCENTILES WILL BE APPROACHING 70%. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BETWEEN GALLUP AND
GRANTS, BUT ERC PERCENTILES ARE LOWER IN THIS AREA (50-60%). A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER REGARDING RECEPTIVE FUELS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN ON
TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NM. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND RH
VALUES NEAR 10% DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE RULE. AFTER A
QUIET WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ON THURSDAY. AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THUS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN TO EASTERN NM WITH NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCH
UPWARD TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 66 29 67 30 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 68 38 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 73 30 72 29 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 70 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 74 32 74 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 73 36 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 76 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 73 38 71 38 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 79 35 75 36 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 82 40 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 60 31 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 42 69 42 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 69 38 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 38 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 55 34 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 28 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 68 33 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 68 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 75 37 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 70 42 71 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 45 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 42 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 44 78 46 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 81 40 82 42 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 78 44 79 46 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 81 39 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 79 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 81 39 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 74 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 45 78 45 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 84 46 84 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 42 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 33 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 74 44 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 43 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 72 47 72 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 33 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 72 31 74 35 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 75 32 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 72 37 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 69 34 74 45 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 73 36 75 42 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 81 37 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 38 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 80 37 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 41 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 83 39 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 39 82 43 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 89 46 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 83 46 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 81 45 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ105-123.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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