950
FXUS65 KABQ 010855
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
155 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
- PERIODS OF WET ROADS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR SLICK AND SNOW
COVERED ROADS ON PASSES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REACHING OVER
9,000 FEET.
- WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH NEW YEAR'S DAY, AND
UP TO 55 MPH FRIDAY WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS ON NORTH-
TO-SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED HIGHWAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT EXITS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV TODAY AND
TONIGHT, THEN TRAVELS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON
FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM TODAY. IT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-TO-NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND MAINLY
HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH OF I-40, THE FOUR CORNERS, AND THE WEST SLOPES OF
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SHOULD ACCUMULATE THE MOST PRECIPITATION;
GENERALLY 0.10-0.40" LIQUID AND/OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 0.95" WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9,000 FEET, AND SPOTTIER AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ELSEWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AS PWATS REACH AROUND
4-5 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWATS
WILL THEN TREND LIGHTER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL NOT CROSS UNTIL FRIDAY, AFTER THE THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED NM TO THE EAST, SO THE SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVEL
LOOKS TO REMAIN NEAR AND ABOVE 9500 FEET FOR MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD ACCUMULATE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A HALF FOOT
ON WEST FACING SLOPES AND THE HIGHEST PEAKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY VARY AROUND 5 TO 19 DEGREES ABOVE 30-YEAR AVERAGES
TODAY AND FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR AVERAGE READINGS AT THE
FOUR CORNERS WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP TODAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE WIND. WITH THE PRECEEDING SHORTWAVE, WESTERLY
FLOW AT 700 MB IS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 40-50 KT ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY, THEN WINDS THAT STRONG
WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT THE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. BOTH DAYS
WILL ALSO FEATURE A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW AROUND 1000 MB OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM, WHICH WILL HELP INDUCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS
FROM 30-40 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPEST ON
FRIDAY, WHEN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 40-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ON FRIDAY SHOULD OCCUR FROM CLINES CORNERS TO
VAUGHN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NM FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER, LIGHTER
WINDS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 11-22
DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES SUNDAY, WHEN A FEW RECORD AND
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST CENTRAL AND EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND GRADUALLY COOLER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AS CLOUD COVER, RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WITH EACH DAY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM MST WED DEC 31 2025
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH CLOUD BASES
LOWERING IN HEIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SPOTTY TO
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS
(CEILINGS AT OR LESS THAN 3,000 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY AT OR LESS
THAN 5 MILES) WILL BE COMMON OVER WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, ESPECIALLY IN THE PRE-DAWN TO LATE MORNING
HOURS, WITH SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS LESS THAN 1,000 FT
AND/OR VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 KT BEING CONCENTRATED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL REDUCE IN SPEED AROUND SUNSET
THURSDAY WHILE SHOWERS REDUCE IN COVERAGE, BUT PERSIST OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MST THU JAN 1 2026
HUMIDITIES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 15 PERCENT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS,
EXCEPT FOR SOME NEAR 15 PERCENT READINGS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM TODAY, AND SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITIES WITHIN
TODAY'S AND FRIDAY'S WIND EVENTS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20-50
PERCENT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT ARE FORECAST
TODAY WITH THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE FRIDAY (EXCEPT FOR THE
CHAMA AREA) AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER. POOR VENTILATION THEN
LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT FOR SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT WITH GUSTY
WINDS OVER EAST CENTRAL AREAS STARTING MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 35 51 29 / 80 60 60 0
DULCE........................... 43 31 47 21 / 70 70 80 0
CUBA............................ 46 33 47 25 / 80 50 60 0
GALLUP.......................... 50 35 52 20 / 80 40 30 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 37 48 23 / 70 40 50 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 33 53 21 / 70 30 30 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 35 51 25 / 70 20 30 0
MAGDALENA....................... 57 39 55 31 / 60 10 5 0
DATIL........................... 53 36 51 27 / 60 20 20 0
RESERVE......................... 56 30 59 25 / 70 20 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 33 61 28 / 70 30 30 0
CHAMA........................... 41 30 40 19 / 60 60 70 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 36 48 30 / 50 40 40 0
PECOS........................... 52 36 50 28 / 30 20 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 33 47 23 / 30 20 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 44 28 41 20 / 30 20 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 29 44 10 / 30 20 30 0
TAOS............................ 49 32 49 22 / 30 20 30 0
MORA............................ 53 35 50 25 / 20 20 30 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 34 55 26 / 40 30 40 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 38 51 29 / 40 30 40 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 36 55 27 / 40 20 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 43 56 33 / 50 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 42 58 34 / 50 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 35 61 28 / 50 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 38 59 32 / 50 20 20 0
BELEN........................... 56 36 63 29 / 60 10 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 54 39 59 30 / 50 20 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 33 62 27 / 50 10 5 0
CORRALES........................ 55 38 59 31 / 50 20 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 33 62 29 / 50 10 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 51 43 55 31 / 40 20 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 39 58 32 / 50 20 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 40 64 34 / 50 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 40 51 30 / 40 20 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 40 52 30 / 40 20 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 41 53 29 / 30 10 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 36 55 25 / 20 10 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 36 51 28 / 10 5 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 39 55 29 / 40 10 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 39 56 29 / 30 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 40 60 33 / 40 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 54 39 54 32 / 30 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 61 29 58 26 / 10 5 5 0
RATON........................... 62 29 60 25 / 20 5 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 31 62 24 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 36 56 27 / 10 0 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 36 66 33 / 0 5 5 5
ROY............................. 64 37 62 29 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 39 69 30 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 44 63 32 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 41 71 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 43 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 69 43 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 45 67 33 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 42 72 36 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 42 65 37 / 20 0 0 0
ELK............................. 63 37 64 34 / 20 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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