405
FXUS65 KABQ 062348
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
THE FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT, FROM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY,
TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL
VALLEY WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PROBABLY ALSO SPREAD TO MORE OF THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
EXCEPT FOR THE ROSWELL AREA WHERE READINGS MAY WARM NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
THE WEST COAST CUT-OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE COASTLINE OF
SOUTHERN CA WITH A SLUG OF DIFFLUENCE AND AND ASCENT ALOFT MAKING
ITS WAY INTO EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF NM, AND HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS AND THE HREF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS OF STORMS EXPANDING
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS NORTH-SOUTH BAND
WILL THEN OVERTAKE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH
A CENTRALIZED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED TO
WORK INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MANY AREAS OBSERVING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS, AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
AND THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE SOME SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION
TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD CREATE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON
RECENT BURN SCARS, AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POTENTIAL SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH (40’S TO 50’S F) DEWPOINTS
WILL STAY PUT OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX OUT
EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW THE UPPER LOW
CREEPS TOWARD NV AND A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT BLEEDS INTO NM.
THIS WILL LIKELY SHARPEN UP THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20’S IN FAR WESTERN NM
WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE DEMARCATION HOLD IN THE 40’S AND 50’S. IT’S
A BIT SURPRISING THAT THERE IS ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS OF SURFACE TO MID
LEVEL (0-6KM) BULK SHEAR CURRENTLY BEING MODELED BY THE NAM ON
WEDNESDAY, AS IT QUALITATIVELY SEEMS THESE NUMBERS WOULD CLIMB MORE.
STILL, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT AND
SOME DIRECTIONAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FOCAL AREAS FOR INITIATION WOULD BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND THE
SACRAMENTOS WITH CELLS TREKKING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM MOTIONS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY FASTER AT
15 TO 20 KT, BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL POSE CONCERNS FOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS AND BURN SCARS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD
FROM SOUTHERN CA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, AND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CA TO TAKE ITS PLACE.
THE DRIER AIR WILL ENABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND WARMER, AND
IT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION MOST PLACES. ONE AREA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A
MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT SLOSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM
NIGHTLY, THEN MIXING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM DAILY.
ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME NIGHTLY ROUNDS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE BACKDOOR FRONT
ADVANCING FURTHER WESTWARD NIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL LIKELY DRAW
THE FRONT ALL OF THE WAY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY
WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, PROBABLY
FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN,
AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
A LINE OF MAINLY SCATTERED STRONG AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IS FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 302 PM MDT TUE JUN 6 2023
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT AT
HEAVIER RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL ROLL
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS, MANY OF THEM SLOWLY DYING BY
EARLY EVENING. FARTHER WEST, STORMS WILL ELONGATE AND EXPAND OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY
EASTERN AREAS OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MANY, BUT NOT ALL,
AREAS WILL RECEIVE WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FEWER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS AS DRIER AIR
FEEDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHOVE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, HAIL AND LOCALIZED, BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS
WILL BECOME EVEN FEWER AND FARTHER BETWEEN AS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND APPROACH WITH THE BEST CHANCES STAYING CONFINED TO
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF NM. LOW DEWPOINTS AND PLUMMETING
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PLAGUE MANY WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL
ZONES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE HAINES INDICES
ESCALATE. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT FOR NOW SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY STAY BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 82 46 83 / 60 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 74 37 77 / 80 50 10 0
CUBA............................ 46 75 44 77 / 70 50 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 41 78 38 78 / 50 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 74 38 74 / 40 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 43 78 38 79 / 60 20 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 77 39 79 / 40 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 77 48 79 / 90 20 5 0
DATIL........................... 44 75 42 78 / 50 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 39 79 35 81 / 20 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 50 83 47 85 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 69 37 70 / 80 70 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 73 52 73 / 90 60 20 5
PECOS........................... 49 72 46 75 / 80 50 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 68 40 72 / 70 70 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 38 64 36 67 / 70 70 30 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 66 33 67 / 70 70 20 20
TAOS............................ 43 74 39 76 / 60 60 20 10
MORA............................ 45 69 42 72 / 70 60 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 51 81 49 83 / 70 50 20 5
SANTA FE........................ 51 76 50 77 / 80 50 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 49 80 47 79 / 80 40 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 81 56 81 / 70 30 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 83 58 82 / 70 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 85 52 86 / 70 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 83 55 84 / 70 20 5 0
BELEN........................... 56 86 53 87 / 70 20 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 84 54 85 / 70 30 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 85 50 86 / 70 20 5 0
CORRALES........................ 57 84 54 85 / 70 20 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 85 52 86 / 70 20 5 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 80 53 81 / 70 30 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 82 55 83 / 70 20 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 87 54 88 / 70 20 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 74 48 75 / 80 40 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 76 49 77 / 80 30 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 48 75 46 76 / 80 40 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 76 41 77 / 80 40 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 73 46 75 / 70 40 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 77 47 79 / 80 30 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 77 48 80 / 80 30 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 81 55 84 / 70 30 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 74 46 77 / 70 50 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 71 48 71 / 50 70 30 40
RATON........................... 49 75 47 77 / 50 70 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 51 75 47 79 / 60 60 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 74 45 76 / 70 60 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 53 76 53 78 / 50 50 30 20
ROY............................. 51 73 50 76 / 70 60 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 56 83 55 84 / 60 40 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 80 53 82 / 70 40 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 82 54 83 / 60 30 30 5
CLOVIS.......................... 56 82 55 85 / 40 40 50 0
PORTALES........................ 57 84 55 87 / 40 40 50 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 83 56 87 / 60 50 30 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 90 58 94 / 40 50 30 0
PICACHO......................... 54 81 52 86 / 50 60 20 0
ELK............................. 50 81 49 83 / 50 50 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ211-214-215-226.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33
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