939
FXUS65 KABQ 202351 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN,
LOCALIZED FLOODING, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
- THE GREATEST RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL FOCUS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS
WELL AS THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL AFFLICT LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST CAMS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
QPF PLUS THE AREA SAW RAINFALL AND SOME IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, A HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE (~1.2") AND RIDGE PARALLEL
FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
MONSOON HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH STRADDLING THE US/MEXICO BORDER. DRY AIR IS
BEING PULLED WESTWARD BETWEEN THE TWO AND SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE 18Z
SOUNDING AT ABQ SHOWS A PWAT OF 1.28" WHICH ACTUALLY BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD OF 1.26". THIS IS ABOVE WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE
WAS PREVIOUSLY SHOWING AND DOES SUGGEST MORE WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE HI-
RES MODELS A FEW HOURS TO LATCH ONTO THIS WETTER TREND AS THEY
INGEST THE MOST RECENT DATA. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST
ABUNDANT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE STORMS WILL CONTINUOUSLY
REGENERATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. STORM MOTIONS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL HELP
TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD RISK, ALTHOUGH THE RRFS LPMM DOES INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF 1-3" IN THE FAR SW POTION OF
THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT A SECONDARY ROUND OF STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING BETWEEN 8PM AND 11PM OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN THEN MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, IT COULD
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RGV. AN EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON, BUT THE BRUNT OF RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
OFF TO THE WEST IN ARIZONA. THE SW HIGH TERRAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
FORECAST TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.25" OF RAIN. THE PROBABILITY OF OVER
1" OF RAIN IS STILL QUITE LOW, WITH SMALL POCKETS OF 20%+ CHANCES IN
THE GILA, ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND THE
HIGH TERRAIN JUST OFF TO THE WEST OF GALLUP. WITH THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE,
ALBEIT WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL RATES COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE AFTERNOON CLOUD COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
RISE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR MID-WEEK AS THE MONSOON HIGH RE-CENTERS
ITSELF OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVENTUALLY DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NM
BY LATE WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY, THEN OVER NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NM ROTATES CLOCKWISE AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND SO MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RECYCLED. BOTH THE
GEFS AND ENS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST PWATS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. WITH THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD, STORM MOTIONS WILL TREND SLOWER LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP MOST STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INCREASE
THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS,
THOUGH SOME OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS LIKELY ENDED FOR THE DAY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. KGUP AND KFMN HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AT BEING IMPACTED THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END BY 06Z, THOUGH
SOME LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND BRIEF EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR
VSBYS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT MON JUL 20 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN NM EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING TO NORTHERN NM THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES GRADUALLY TREND HIGHER OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS THE MONSOON RIDGE CENTERS ITSELF OVER
CENTRAL NM. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HOTTER MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 100S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 95 66 89 / 30 40 70 30
DULCE........................... 54 94 55 87 / 10 40 70 70
CUBA............................ 58 87 59 84 / 20 40 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 56 85 56 83 / 40 70 50 70
EL MORRO........................ 56 82 57 80 / 30 50 40 70
GRANTS.......................... 58 86 59 84 / 20 30 30 70
QUEMADO......................... 57 80 57 81 / 70 70 50 70
MAGDALENA....................... 62 82 63 83 / 20 50 20 30
DATIL........................... 57 77 58 79 / 50 70 30 60
RESERVE......................... 55 84 55 85 / 50 90 50 60
GLENWOOD........................ 55 86 56 89 / 40 90 70 50
CHAMA........................... 53 87 53 81 / 5 20 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 87 64 84 / 5 30 30 30
PECOS........................... 56 87 57 85 / 5 5 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 87 57 84 / 0 5 10 40
RED RIVER....................... 48 77 48 75 / 0 10 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 81 44 79 / 0 10 10 60
TAOS............................ 56 90 56 86 / 0 10 10 50
MORA............................ 54 84 55 83 / 0 20 20 40
ESPANOLA........................ 65 95 65 92 / 0 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 89 62 86 / 5 10 20 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 91 61 88 / 5 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 92 66 91 / 5 30 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 91 67 91 / 5 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 93 66 94 / 5 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 93 68 92 / 5 30 30 10
BELEN........................... 65 91 64 93 / 5 30 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 66 95 67 92 / 10 40 30 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 91 63 93 / 5 30 20 5
CORRALES........................ 67 95 67 93 / 10 30 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 91 63 93 / 5 30 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 66 91 66 88 / 5 40 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 94 67 92 / 10 30 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 68 92 69 94 / 10 30 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 86 61 85 / 5 30 30 40
TIJERAS......................... 61 87 61 86 / 5 30 30 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 89 58 88 / 5 20 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 90 54 90 / 5 20 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 85 57 85 / 5 10 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 87 59 88 / 5 30 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 84 59 86 / 5 30 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 83 65 87 / 20 60 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 56 78 59 82 / 20 70 20 70
CAPULIN......................... 57 88 57 88 / 0 5 10 5
RATON........................... 56 92 56 92 / 0 10 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 57 93 58 93 / 0 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 87 57 87 / 0 10 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 65 97 65 98 / 0 0 20 0
ROY............................. 62 91 63 91 / 0 0 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 66 97 67 99 / 0 0 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 92 65 94 / 0 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 98 69 100 / 0 0 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 97 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 96 68 99 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 97 71 100 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 89 65 93 / 5 30 5 20
ELK............................. 58 85 61 89 / 10 40 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34
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