362
FXUS65 KABQ 222331 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2021
AVIATION
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR KCAO TO KSRR
AND WESTWARD TOWARD KONM WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
02Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY SHOWER OR
T-STORM. LOW CIGS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT FROM NEAR KCVN SOUTHWARD, BUT
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY EAST OF KROW. MOISTURE CURRENTLY
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM ALONG A
SHARPER MOISTURE GRADIENT.
34
PREV DISCUSSION...245 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SPOTTY AND WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. A COLD FRONT
SURGING THROUGH EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE OF AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE WITH GREATER CHANCES
IN WETTING PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
PUSH WESTWARD.
DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A 593DAM 500MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NM BOOTHEEL PER THE 12Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION AND A
PACIFIC LOW, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL CA. THIS MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT NORTHEAST WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN A RISE IN PWATS AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EAST TO
OVER FAR WEST TX. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING STORMS INSTEAD OF THE
DRIER STORMS CURRENTLY SHOWING ON RADAR. WESTERN NM WILL BE 3-7
DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER, DECREASED
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN-COOLING. THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL ACTUALLY BE WARMER DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS THERE AND A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO LATE DAY WINDS. IN FACT, MOST OF EASTERN NM
WILL CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE H5 HIGH WEAKENS AND ELONGATES THURSDAY OVER TX WHILE AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW STAYS OFF THE COAST OF CA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
DOMINANT OVER NM BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, AND A SUBTROPICAL PLUME
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM.
PWATS WILL INCREASE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 0.75" TO 1". THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WHILE DEWPOINTS DO CREEP UP ON THURSDAY COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY, LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL SUPPORT MORE HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS - PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST.
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE RGV
HAS BETTER CHANCES WHERE MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE.
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY WHICH PUSHES THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT FARTHER EAST. THIS RESULTS IN DECREASED PWATS AND DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE INCREASING THEM ACROSS THE EAST. THUS,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO SHIFT FARTHER EAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WHERE A BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SET UP. THIS
FRONT SURGES THROUGH EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY SATURDAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL SPREAD WESTWARD SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO
AZ.
11/15
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS, WHERE A ROUND OF MIXED WET/DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
UNDERWAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND
INCREASING WETTING POTENTIAL. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED MOISTURE FOR ROUNDS OF WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ONCE
THIS MOISTURE COMES IN, IT WILL STAY AROUND FOR AWHILE GIVEN NO
SCOURING MECHANISM WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF
NEW MEXICO OVER THE PACIFIC NW OR GREAT BASIN. EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS
OF WETTING STORMS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
11
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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