274
FXUS65 KABQ 222327 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
AND DOWNSTREAM OF BURN SCARS, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MORESO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL DECREASE A LITTLE MORE EACH DAY AS WELL.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO, THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHERE HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
NEW MEXICO LIES IN BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED IN BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES, ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT IS QUITE
LIGHT OVER NEW MEXICO ITSELF. STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN NM WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS THANKS TO THE CLEARING OF HIGH CLOUDS WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR
DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. INSTABILITY IS NOT WILDLY IMPRESSIVE (300-
800 J/KG OF MU CAPE), BUT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF CAPE. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT
KABQ HAD A PWAT OF 1.08". THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SATELLITE
DERIVED PWATS WOULD SUGGEST, BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR CLIMATOLOGY. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM YESTERDAY AS WELL, WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
DECREASING FROM 7.4C/KM TO 6.3C/KM. THERE IS MORE LIFT IN TODAY'S
ATMOSPHERE THOUGH AND THAT WILL HELP TO DRIVE MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
A WEAK UPPER-LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG THE RGV THIS EVENING,
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TRIANGLE
FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO SANTA FE TO SANTA ROSA. PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN, WILL ELEVATE
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA. HREF 90TH PERCENTILE
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOW POCKETS OF 1-3" IN THIS AREA, WITH A HIGH-END
SCENARIO SHOWING UPWARDS OF 4". THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE METRO AREAS WILL BE GREATEST FROM 5PM TO
9PM AS STORMS CONTINUOUSLY REGENERATE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IN CENTRAL
NM COULD PERSIST EVEN LATER, WITH WEAKER INTENSITY.
THIS UPPER-LOW FEATURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO EASTERN NM BY THE TIME
OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE, RESULTING IN A DOWNTREND IN
STORM CHANCES TOMORROW. STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND THE UPTICK IN
SHEAR IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THEY ROLL OFF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. HI-RES MODELS
AND THE NAM SHOW STORMS TRYING TO COALESCE INTO A LINE AS THIS
OCCURS, BUT SHOW RAPID DISSIPATION AS IT BECOMES DISPLACED FROM THE
DEPARTING UPPER-LOW. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SFC SO POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS FOR TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT. WHILE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS AN INITIATION POINT FOR STORMS, THE
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THEIR RESIDENCE TIME
OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA AND HPCC BURN SCARS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS
NOT YET ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH COULD BE ADDED IN TONIGHT'S
FORECAST PACKAGE, DEPENDING ON HOW TODAY'S RAINFALL IMPACTS THE
OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
THE CLEAR DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSHES DRY AIR INTO WESTERN NM. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW
STORMS, BUT CONVECTION WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL HELP TO TAKE ANY STORMS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS EAST AND
KEEP THEM OFF OF THE BURN SCARS, RESULTING IN A LOW FLASH FLOOD RISK
FOR THE RUIDOSO AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE DRIER AIRMASS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HOTTER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CREATE MODERATE
HEAT RISK ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND IN THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL THREATEN 100F. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE
OF GREATEST CONCERN, CONSIDERING THAT MANY WILL LIKELY BE OUTDOORS
RECREATING AND ENJOYING THE BREAK IN STORMS.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY SINCE THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD,
DRAWING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN NM. AN INVERTED TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD HELP TO FURTHER
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD EARLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS GEFS AND ENS MEAN PWATS
INCREASE TO 100-120% OF NORMAL. LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST TENDS TO BE
THE PEAK OF THE MONSOON SEASON WHEN PWATS ARE HIGHEST ON AVERAGE SO
EVEN NORMAL PWATS ARE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND
ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS AT TIMES, BUT SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BRIEF. SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40KT WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER LONGEST OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM WITH MOST ACTIVITY LIKELY
DISSIPATING AT AROUND 09Z. ANOTHER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY WITH KSAF AND
KLVS SEEING HIGHER CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM STORM ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS
AROUND THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE
TODAY EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. WETTING RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED 2" IN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. STORM COVERAGE TRENDS
DOWN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS FAVORING
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RISE AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE TO DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 89 62 90 / 20 5 5 0
DULCE........................... 52 85 51 87 / 40 40 20 30
CUBA............................ 57 83 59 86 / 50 30 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 56 84 55 86 / 40 20 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 55 79 55 83 / 70 40 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 59 82 58 87 / 60 40 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 57 78 55 84 / 70 60 30 10
MAGDALENA....................... 61 79 60 84 / 70 60 20 10
DATIL........................... 56 77 56 82 / 70 70 20 20
RESERVE......................... 54 82 55 89 / 70 70 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 57 87 60 93 / 70 60 10 5
CHAMA........................... 49 78 50 81 / 50 60 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 81 61 82 / 60 40 10 40
PECOS........................... 56 81 58 83 / 60 50 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 78 53 81 / 70 70 30 70
RED RIVER....................... 46 69 48 71 / 70 70 30 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 73 47 73 / 60 70 30 70
TAOS............................ 53 82 53 84 / 70 60 30 50
MORA............................ 51 78 54 79 / 60 60 20 60
ESPANOLA........................ 61 88 60 90 / 60 40 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 59 83 60 84 / 60 40 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 86 60 88 / 60 30 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 86 66 90 / 70 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 88 66 92 / 70 30 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 90 67 94 / 70 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 88 67 92 / 70 20 20 10
BELEN........................... 66 89 66 93 / 70 30 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 66 89 66 94 / 70 20 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 89 65 93 / 70 20 10 5
CORRALES........................ 66 89 67 94 / 70 20 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 89 66 93 / 70 20 10 5
PLACITAS........................ 64 86 64 89 / 70 30 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 89 66 93 / 70 20 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 67 87 66 94 / 70 50 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 81 61 85 / 70 30 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 60 83 61 86 / 70 30 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 83 59 86 / 60 30 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 84 58 87 / 60 30 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 80 59 81 / 60 30 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 80 59 85 / 70 40 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 80 60 84 / 70 50 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 81 64 87 / 70 50 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 56 74 60 79 / 60 60 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 79 56 78 / 40 70 40 80
RATON........................... 55 83 55 82 / 50 70 30 80
SPRINGER........................ 57 85 56 86 / 50 70 30 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 82 56 82 / 60 50 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 63 86 63 86 / 30 30 30 40
ROY............................. 60 84 60 84 / 50 50 30 50
CONCHAS......................... 65 92 66 91 / 50 40 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 90 66 89 / 60 40 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 91 66 89 / 40 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 66 90 67 94 / 50 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 66 91 68 95 / 50 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 91 68 94 / 50 20 20 10
ROSWELL......................... 70 92 70 96 / 50 10 0 5
PICACHO......................... 62 84 65 89 / 50 40 5 10
ELK............................. 60 81 62 86 / 50 50 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ206-208-211-212-
214-215-218-219-221>224-226-229-241.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...71
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