549  
FXUS65 KABQ 011939  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
139 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
- MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW  
MEXICO TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE  
WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WHICH WILL INCREASE THE  
RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER  
RECENT BURN SCARS.  
 
- DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BY THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SATURDAY,  
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE  
RAIN CHANCES RISE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL AS OF LATE, BUT TODAY  
DOES LOOK TO BE SETTING UP AS EXPECTED. THAT IS, EASTERN NM IS  
QUITE STABLE, AND SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE  
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE RULE. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,  
BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE WEST, WHERE  
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LESS CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED  
MOISTURE EXISTS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE RULE.  
WHILE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR,  
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY RIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AGAIN RAISE THE QUESTION OF  
STABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA.  
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT AREAS EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO  
MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN STABLE, BUT CAMS SEEM TO BE VERY  
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT QPF OVER RUIDOSO AND THE BURN SCARS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SIMILAR TO TODAY, CONTINUED  
COOL TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER, CURRENTLY THINK THE QPF  
MAY BE OVERDONE AND RAINFALL MAY BE LIGHTER LIKE TODAY. SO FOR  
NOW, HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN SCARS AS  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HOWEVER, IF OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDS  
EARLIER THAN PREDICTED, AND MORE SUN DESTABILIZES THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND RATES WOULD BE  
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
ERUPT ACROSS WESTERN NM IN A TYPICAL MONSOON FASHION. THE  
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT ANY  
STORM WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS  
PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL SHIFT EASTWARD  
OVER CA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN  
TROUGH OVER THE CA/AZ BORDER EARLY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THIS MAIN  
TROUGH, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM ON  
THURSDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ACROSS  
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, AND IN FACT THURSDAY MAY BE THE MOST  
ACTIVE DAY OF THE NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, SOMEWHAT DRIER  
AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NM, SETTING UP A MOISTURE GRADIENT  
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE CONTDVD. THESE MOISTURE  
GRADIENTS COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING (AKA, THE SHORTWAVE), USUALLY  
PROVE TO BE FRUITFUL FOR NM IN TERMS OF NUMEROUS STORMS. PWATS  
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE NEAR 1 INCH, SO PLENTY OF JUICE FOR  
HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND  
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
 
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE AZ/NM  
BORDER. MOST STORMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT BUT WOULDN'T BE  
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LINGER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN  
NM. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NM FRIDAY  
MORNING AND MUCH, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. PWATS  
WILL DROP TO NEAR 0.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN  
NM. COULDN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO  
MOUNTAINS OR ANOTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREA, BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND  
FAR BETWEEN. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM AND THE  
COMBINATION OF FEW STORMS AND INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES  
WILL CLIMB 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. THE UPPER HIGH WILL  
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM ON SATURDAY, CONTINUING TO LIMIT  
CONVECTION AND RAISE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NE NM  
MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT  
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
ON SUNDAY, ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO EASTERN NM,  
AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE UPPER HIGH  
WILL REMAIN STRONG CENTER ACROSS WESTERN NM, AROUND 594-595DAM, SO  
STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE  
WEST WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY. IT APPEARS LOW AND MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE WILL SEEP NORTHWARD UNDER THE UPPER HIGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT  
AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT MAY BE A MIX  
OF WET AND DRY STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF EASTERN NM THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH THERE MAY  
BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP  
RAINFALL RATES LIGHT. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,  
INCLUDING KROW. LOW VFR OR MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE  
ACROSS EASTERN NM AS WELL AND IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KROW  
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AS DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE  
WEST WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER EXISTS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
MORE VIGOROUS THAT STORMS ACROSS THE EAST, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCH OF  
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL DIMINISH BY  
MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER EAST OR SOUTHEAST GAP WIND IS EXPECTED AT KSAF  
AND KABQ THIS EVENING, BUT WITH GUSTS ONLY TOPPING OUT AT 25-30KT.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS  
THE AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS  
WESTERN NM, AND THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL  
AND WESTERN NM. STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS. EASTERN NM WILL REMAIN MORE SHOWERY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE  
TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH INTO THE STATE ON  
FRIDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH STRONG MIXING,  
SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL REACH THE SURFACE AND RH VALUES WILL  
LOWER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL RETURN ON  
SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AS WELL. A BOUNDARY  
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM MAY BRING A FEW STORMS SATURDAY, BUT MOST OF  
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN ON  
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED STORM COVERAGE.  
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEEP NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  
LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY ACROSS WESTERN NM, SO WE MAY SEE  
A FEW DRY STORMS ACROSS THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
FARMINGTON...................... 62 91 63 86 / 20 10 30 20  
DULCE........................... 46 86 49 82 / 30 20 20 40  
CUBA............................ 51 82 55 81 / 20 20 30 50  
GALLUP.......................... 53 86 55 81 / 20 40 30 30  
EL MORRO........................ 54 81 54 79 / 20 60 50 60  
GRANTS.......................... 52 84 55 81 / 20 40 30 60  
QUEMADO......................... 54 82 57 79 / 30 60 50 60  
MAGDALENA....................... 57 78 60 79 / 20 50 40 70  
DATIL........................... 52 78 55 77 / 20 60 50 70  
RESERVE......................... 51 86 53 85 / 40 60 50 50  
GLENWOOD........................ 56 89 57 88 / 50 70 50 50  
CHAMA........................... 45 80 47 76 / 30 30 30 50  
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 78 58 78 / 20 30 20 60  
PECOS........................... 51 76 55 79 / 20 40 30 60  
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 80 53 80 / 20 30 10 50  
RED RIVER....................... 42 71 45 71 / 20 30 10 50  
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 73 41 72 / 20 30 10 50  
TAOS............................ 49 82 53 82 / 20 30 10 40  
MORA............................ 46 74 48 76 / 20 40 20 60  
ESPANOLA........................ 57 86 60 87 / 20 30 20 50  
SANTA FE........................ 53 79 58 81 / 20 40 30 50  
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 82 58 84 / 20 30 20 50  
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 84 64 84 / 20 30 30 50  
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 85 65 86 / 20 30 30 30  
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 87 63 87 / 20 30 20 30  
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 86 65 85 / 20 20 20 30  
BELEN........................... 59 87 64 88 / 20 20 30 30  
BERNALILLO...................... 60 87 64 87 / 20 20 30 40  
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 86 62 87 / 20 30 20 30  
CORRALES........................ 60 87 64 87 / 20 30 30 30  
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 86 63 87 / 20 20 20 30  
PLACITAS........................ 59 83 62 83 / 20 30 30 40  
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 86 65 86 / 20 20 30 30  
SOCORRO......................... 64 87 66 88 / 20 30 30 40  
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 79 57 82 / 20 30 30 40  
TIJERAS......................... 57 80 59 84 / 20 40 30 50  
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 79 55 83 / 20 40 30 50  
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 51 80 53 84 / 20 40 30 50  
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 72 54 78 / 20 40 30 40  
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 77 56 81 / 20 50 30 50  
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 76 56 81 / 30 50 40 60  
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 76 61 82 / 40 70 40 60  
RUIDOSO......................... 53 68 54 74 / 50 80 30 80  
CAPULIN......................... 51 76 54 78 / 5 20 10 40  
RATON........................... 52 82 55 82 / 5 20 10 40  
SPRINGER........................ 53 81 56 84 / 10 30 10 40  
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 74 53 79 / 20 40 30 50  
CLAYTON......................... 59 81 60 83 / 5 20 20 20  
ROY............................. 56 76 58 79 / 10 30 20 30  
CONCHAS......................... 63 80 63 86 / 30 40 30 30  
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 75 61 82 / 40 50 30 40  
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 79 62 83 / 40 40 40 30  
CLOVIS.......................... 63 76 63 83 / 80 50 50 40  
PORTALES........................ 62 76 63 84 / 80 60 50 40  
FORT SUMNER..................... 63 78 63 84 / 60 60 40 30  
ROSWELL......................... 65 79 66 86 / 80 60 40 40  
PICACHO......................... 61 73 60 81 / 60 80 40 60  
ELK............................. 58 73 57 80 / 60 80 30 70  
 
 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...34  
LONG TERM....34  
AVIATION...34  
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