468
FXUS65 KABQ 021839
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1239 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM.
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NM.
- THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP LATE IN THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
A 40-50 KT JET STREAK AT 300 MB IS MODELED TO LIFT OVER NORTHERN NM
INTO CO TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A WEAK GREAT BASIN TROUGH EJECTS INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOMENTUM ALOFT AVAILABLE
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN NORTHERN NM WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN EASTERN CO, ASSISTING WITH THE WIND PRODUCTION, AND
CONSEQUENTLY COLFAX, UNION, AND HARDING COUNTIES WILL BEAR THE BRUNT
OF THE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 35 MPH
THROUGH SUNSET. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD HOLD OVER THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, ESSENTIALLY KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40'S AND 50'S
ALONG AND EAST OF EASTERN LINCOLN, DE BACA, AND QUAY COUNTIES. THIS
WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL TO THESE AREAS WITH VERY SPARSE AND
WIDELY ISOLATED COVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME HIGH LCL'S
AND HIGH DCAPE, SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURST OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT THE POPS ARE VERY LOW (10-20%). OTHERWISE, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY GRAZE PAST CENTRAL CA
TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD, AND THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL
RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHERN NM. THE 700 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL REDUCE
TO 15-20 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. THIS WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS,
BUT GUSTS ARE NOT PROJECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS TODAY, ONLY 25 TO 30
MPH IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LAYER MOISTURE
WOULD ALSO HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME HANGING ON, AND ONLY LOW
ISOLATED POPS HAVE BEEN MENTIONED, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
LINCOLN COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WOULD GAIN A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
DRYING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THEN STARTS TO BUILD OVER NM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SIGNIFYING LESS WESTERLIES AND A SHIFT TOWARD THE
MONSOON. THE RETREATING WESTERLIES WILL BE A WELCOME SIGHT, LOWERING
AND REDUCING OUR LONG DURATION BOUTS OF WINDY CONDITIONS WHILE ALSO
ALLOWING BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SEEP INTO THE STATE. THE
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER SUBDUED AT FIRST WITH SLOW AND INCREMENTAL
INCREASES, BUT BY MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK PWAT
READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NORMAL
(AROUND 0.8 INCH IN ABQ). CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST WEEK IN JULY
OFTEN SEES NOTABLE RISES, SO THIS IS GOOD TO SEE SOME SEMBLANCE OF
NORMALCY. NORTHWESTERN NM TYPICALLY MOISTENS UP LAST, SO THIS WILL
REMAIN THE DRIER CORNER OF THE STATE WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS.
CONSEQUENTLY POPS ARE ALSO STARTING TO LOOK MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL FOR
EARLY JULY, FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
RANGES. MANY OF THE INITIAL STORMS WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH
LESS EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION, BUT RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL
HOPEFULLY START EXPANDING MORE AS WE GET FURTHER INTO JULY AND
DEEPER MOISTURE IS ABLE TO BE TAPPED AND RECYCLED. TEMPERATURES
WOULD START TO CREEP A FEW DEGREES (3-6) ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY
BEFORE THE MOISTURE ARRIVES, BUT READINGS SHOULD LEVEL OUT CLOSER
TO NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, AS SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
WILL BE COMMON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN
TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KSRR-KTCC
LINE. WHILE STORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, THEY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING VERY GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL DIE OFF THROUGH THE MID
EVENING, AS WILL THE GUSTY WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE READINGS WILL ALSO BE
PREVALENT, CREATING POOR AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE FOR SOME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, AS A MODEST, BUT RELATIVELY STRONG FOR
EARLY JULY, JET STREAK OVERLAYS A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. GUSTS TO
35 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
SUBSIDING. ANY NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS FROM YESTERDAY OR PREVIOUS
DAYS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO GROWTH.
INTO FRIDAY, THE JET STREAK ALOFT WILL RELAX, AS WILL THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALLOWING WINDS TO REDUCE IN SPEED WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FORTUNATELY ABATING. STILL, BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVALENT WITH SOME GUSTS OF 25 BEING MOST COMMON IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AGAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS TO 30
MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE MONSOON HIGH THEN SHOWS SIGNS OF BUILDING INTO NM THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A WELCOME RESPITE FROM STRONG
WESTERLIES WHILE ALSO ALLOWING MOISTURE TO CREEP BACK IN. THE
MOISTURE INCREASES WILL BE SLOW AND INCREMENTAL, BUT STORMS WILL
START DEVELOPING AND MULTIPLYING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. WETTING RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL AND SPOTTY
AT FIRST WITH A THREAT OF NEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CARRYING ON INTO THE
WEEK OR TWO BEFORE MOISTURE GETS MORE DEEPLY ROOTED AND RAINS TURN
MORE SOAKING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 93 53 94 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 43 89 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 51 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 89 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 86 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 46 91 50 91 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 89 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 58 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 52 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 47 92 51 92 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 52 96 56 96 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 86 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 82 29 82 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 49 89 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 50 87 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 52 95 53 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 96 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 97 57 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 97 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 98 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 57 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 97 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 56 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 100 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 91 57 92 / 0 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 92 51 93 / 0 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 88 56 89 / 0 5 0 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 91 57 93 / 0 5 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 90 59 91 / 0 5 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 93 66 93 / 5 10 0 20
RUIDOSO......................... 55 86 59 86 / 10 20 0 50
CAPULIN......................... 53 90 53 87 / 5 5 0 5
RATON........................... 51 94 51 93 / 0 5 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 52 96 52 94 / 5 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 90 56 91 / 0 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 63 98 65 96 / 5 5 0 5
ROY............................. 60 93 61 93 / 5 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 66 100 66 100 / 10 5 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 97 66 97 / 10 5 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 100 69 101 / 10 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 65 95 66 97 / 20 5 0 10
PORTALES........................ 66 97 67 99 / 20 10 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 98 68 99 / 10 5 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 68 99 70 101 / 20 5 0 10
PICACHO......................... 62 94 65 95 / 20 10 0 30
ELK............................. 59 89 62 90 / 20 20 5 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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