439
FXUS65 KABQ 052045
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 131 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
- NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS A 110 KT 300 MB LEVEL JET DIGS SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE SOME BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MOST AREAS, BUT THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY SEE
SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, SO
WINDS AROUND THE MAJORITY OF NEW MEXICO WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, 700 MB WINDS WILL BE CLIMBING
UP TO AROUND 65 KTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY, PEAKING
AT AROUND SUNRISE. AS A RESULT, THE PEAKS ALONG THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING. THE TIMING OF THIS MID LEVEL SPEED MAX BEING
IN THE MORNING MEANS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS NOT REALLY A SHOWING SIGNAL FOR ANY
CRASHING MOUNTAIN WAVES EITHER, SO WIND SPEEDS IN MOST OF EAST-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LOOK TO REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (INCLUDING CLINES CORNERS) FOR THE EARLY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS,
AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLAND AREAS. BUT
CONSIDERING HOW NUISANCE THE WINDS CAN BE OVER THE CLINES CORNERS
AREA, HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE THE WIND ADVISORY WHERE
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAY BE OBSERVED
FOR A FEW HOURS.
WINDS DIMINISH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE TX AND OK
PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS NORTH IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
DRY, BREEZY, AND SUNNY WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR NEXT WEEK HERE IN
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WIND REGIME OVER THE AREA AS NEW MEXICO FINDS ITSELF ON THE EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION TO PASS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL BE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR SITUATION LOOKS TO HAPPEN THURSDAY,
EXCEPT THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH DOWN A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE WAVES WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN CONUS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEING THE
OVERALL TREND IN THE WEATHER PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK TO RISE ABOVE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MORE THAN NORMAL
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. DOWNSLOPING WINDS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL FURTHER ELEVATE TEMPERATURES, WITH CURRENT FORECASTS SHOWING
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 70S NEAR ROSWELL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WIND THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. SOME STRONGER GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS MAY BE OBSERVED AT
KFMN AND KAEG, AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
LIKE KCQC. WINDS BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE DECOUPLES FROM THE FLOW ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARM,
DRY, AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS. SATURDAY
WILL HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH
AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. HOWEVER, MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO
AROUND 30%. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON
ALONG EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION
WILL GENERALLY BE POOR OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 45 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 10 43 10 44 / 0 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 18 45 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 17 51 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 21 48 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 16 53 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 20 51 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 55 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 51 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 60 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 62 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 11 37 11 39 / 0 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 22 44 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 21 46 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 42 17 39 / 0 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 12 34 11 32 / 0 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 38 7 38 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 13 44 16 41 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 18 47 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 18 50 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 24 45 25 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 20 46 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 50 32 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 52 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 23 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 26 53 29 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 57 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 25 53 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 19 54 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 54 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 21 55 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 48 29 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 26 53 28 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 61 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 46 26 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 25 45 27 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 23 48 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 18 50 19 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 45 22 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 22 51 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 52 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 28 54 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 51 31 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 16 51 18 42 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 14 54 17 46 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 13 53 16 47 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 19 50 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 23 59 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 18 54 22 47 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 20 62 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 25 56 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 64 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 25 63 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 24 64 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 23 62 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 27 68 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 64 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 27 63 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 2 PM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ214-215-223.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25
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