667
FXUS65 KABQ 150730
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1230 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHILE THE
COLDEST ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
THE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NM
HAVE NOW VEERED AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE WINDS ALONG AN AREA FROM
KFMN TO KCQC TO KROW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT H7, WIND SPEEDS WILL
REACH 30-40KT, HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE RATHER POOR
TODAY, SO THIS MOMENTUM WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE. BEST
CHANCES FOR INCREASED WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35KT ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S,
OR AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PUT A FEW RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY, INCLUDING AT LAS VEGAS,
TUCUMCARI, CONCHAS DAM AND FORT SUMNER. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF YESTERDAY'S READINGS.
AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM/WEST TX THIS
EVENING, AN INITIAL WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST NM,
BUT THE STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A POTENT LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS, BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM IN ITS WAKE. THE FRONT SHOULD BACK UP TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE
ENOUGH OOMPH TO PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY WILL DROP 15 TO 25
DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS H5 HEIGHTS LOWER A FEW
DECAMETERS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
A SECOND TROUGH/LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL SEND A REINFORCING BACKDOOR FRONT INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FURTHER, AND MOST LOCATIONS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE'S A VERY SMALL CHANCE
(<=10%) THAT A FLAKE OR TWO OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NM BEHIND THE FRONT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE SWOOPS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FRONT HAS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF
PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A WEAK EAST GAP WIND TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SANTA FE AREA. HOWEVER, BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THE FRONT WILL ALREADY MIX OUT AND WINDS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.
ON SUNDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE. MODERATE TO WEAK
DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ACROSS THE PLAINS
TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED AROUND
THE CLINES CORNERS AREA.
AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY WHICH WILL SEND YET ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO NM.
THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO BACK DOWNWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHILE ANOTHER WEAK GAP WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THAT
WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN COAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN, BUT WIDESPREAD SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES
FOR NM AREN'T EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH, ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NM ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW, THEN A MODERATE TO
STRONG WEST BREEZE OF 10 TO 25 KTS DEVELOPS IN EASTERN NM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE NORTH AFTER
00Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<10%) THAT SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS IN LOW-LYING AREAS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN AND PECOS
RIVER VALLEYS AROUND SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST THU JAN 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NM BUT MOST BREEZES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ACROSS EASTERN NM. BACKDOOR FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL OSCILLATE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS, BUT LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL
RESULT IN MANY AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 45 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 51 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 50 20 46 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 54 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 19 54 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 17 59 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 21 55 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 58 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 24 56 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 22 63 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 66 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 22 48 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 50 27 46 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 27 54 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 23 48 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 43 21 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 7 48 12 42 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 19 52 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 26 59 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 23 57 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 51 28 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 26 53 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 55 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 55 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 25 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 58 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 57 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 29 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 57 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 57 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 32 54 30 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 58 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 31 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 51 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 50 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 28 54 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 20 56 20 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 52 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 54 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 55 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 58 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 27 55 32 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 21 59 18 38 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 61 18 43 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 63 18 46 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 25 63 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 32 68 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 26 65 24 43 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 25 71 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 66 27 48 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 73 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 30 69 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 71 29 50 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 26 71 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 28 70 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 31 69 35 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 68 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...16
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page