270
FXUS65 KABQ 111854
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1254 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
- LOCALIZED STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, LATE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER HIGH OVER AZ STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 591DAM AT 500MB AND
PROGRESSES EAST OVER NM. A FEW LATE DAY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH TUESDAY, FAVORING
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO SOAR WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE TO
NEAR DAILY RECORDS AT A NUMBER OF LOCALES. ALBUQUERQUE IS FORECAST
TO HIT A HIGH OF 91 DEGREES TUESDAY AND ROSWELL 98 DEGREES, BOTH
2 DEGREES SHY OF THEIR DAILY RECORDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NM AND INTO CENTRAL
NM TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT BUT NO NOTABLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF NM ON
WEDNESDAY GIVING WAY TO AN INCREASE IN PWATS ACROSS WESTERN NM,
WHICH WILL BRING GREATER COVERAGE OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY DRY AND LITTLE TO NO WETTING (>0.10") RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED. INSTEAD, DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE
HEAT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RACING EAST FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL STEER STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT OVER NM ON THURSDAY. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
DEEP LAYER MIXING OF THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS, RESULTING IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH LARGE SUSTAINED/GUST
SPREADS. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FRI/SAT,
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS MAY TREND BACK UP SUN/MON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST COAST. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY IS OF LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME GIVEN BOTH MODEL SPREAD AND LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
WORTH OF NOTE, THE 12Z GFS IS BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TYPICAL LATE AFTERNOON GUSTINESS IS FORECAST, BUT
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
HIGH OVER AZ PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT UNDER THIS REGIME, ALTHOUGH A CROP OF DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BRING STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRY
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ANY LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ON WEDNESDAY COULD
LEAD TO FIRE GROWTH ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE STEERED
OVER THE REGION AND DEEP LAYER MIXING BRINGS BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. FURTHER DRYING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AS WELL,
WITH MANY HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN
NM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY INCLUDE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. ERCS ARE FORECAST TO TREND UP THIS WEEK, SO WILL
CLOSELY EVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WINDS
TREND DOWN FRI/SAT, BUT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND
SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. BACKING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS
ALOFT ON SUN/MON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN CONTINUED DRYING AND RISING ERCS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 39 87 42 86 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 44 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 40 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 43 85 48 81 / 0 0 0 20
GRANTS.......................... 43 88 48 84 / 0 0 0 30
QUEMADO......................... 46 85 50 81 / 0 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 53 85 57 82 / 0 0 5 5
DATIL........................... 48 84 52 80 / 0 5 10 10
RESERVE......................... 46 90 48 88 / 0 5 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 48 93 49 91 / 0 0 5 0
CHAMA........................... 37 81 41 80 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 47 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 81 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 71 41 71 / 5 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 77 38 77 / 5 0 0 30
TAOS............................ 42 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 5
MORA............................ 46 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 50 91 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 85 54 83 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 88 53 86 / 0 0 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 93 58 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 93 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 92 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 92 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 55 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 93 62 94 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 85 58 85 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 54 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 89 44 88 / 0 0 0 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 86 54 86 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 86 54 85 / 0 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 56 80 60 82 / 0 10 10 10
CAPULIN......................... 46 82 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 44 87 46 84 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 44 89 47 85 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 85 49 83 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 53 90 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 48 88 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 53 96 56 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 51 93 53 89 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 97 56 96 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 95 56 97 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 96 56 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 96 56 95 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 98 60 97 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 91 57 91 / 0 0 5 0
ELK............................. 51 88 56 91 / 0 5 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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