185
FXUS65 KABQ 142324
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
424 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WESTERLY WINDS TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW IS ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
TX AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT OVER NM TONIGHT,
THEN SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THIS
SCENARIO WILL BRING A WARMING/DRYING TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO REACH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. LOW PROBABILITIES
FOR FOG OR FREEZING FOG EXIST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN NM, WITH THE TWO RELATIVE HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE
AREAS BEING THE UPPER RGV NEAR TAOS AND THE MORENO VALLEY NEAR
ANGEL FIRE, WHERE SOME SNOW MELT WILL PLAY A ROLE. LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP MONDAY AS THE POLAR
JET STREAM TURNS INLAND OVER SOCAL AND THE DESERT SW. AN EVEN
DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON,
DOWN TO NEAR 999MB, BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM. DAYTIME MIXING OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO FAR WESTERN NM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE POLAR JET WILL PROGRESS EAST OVER NM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, STEERING BOTH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
MUCH STRONGER WINDS DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE. 300MB WIND SPEEDS ARE
STILL MODELED TO REACH UP TO NEAR AN IMPRESSIVE 170KTS OVER
NORTHERN NM ON TUESDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 60-70MPH ARE POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH AMPLE PWATS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. BLOWING
DUST IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY AS WELL, MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV
AND NEAR ROSWELL. WEDNESDAY IS NOW LOOKING EQUALLY IMPACTFUL AS
TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE POLAR JET STREAM REMAINS ORIENTED FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS IN THE CARDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE ROCKIES. MODEL SPREAD WITH
THE HANDLING OF A TRAILING TROUGH ON THU/FRI IS LEADING TO LOWER
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, BUT BOTH DAYS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WILL CORRELATE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT ARE FORECAST TO DROP
BELOW AVERAGE MOST AREAS BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT IN MOST AREAS AFTER 03Z. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXITING TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN AND AROUND
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ADVECTED IN FROM THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WITH A
FOCUS FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON TUE/WED/THU. A
WARMING/DRYING TREND IS IN PLAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND GIVES WAY TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN NM. THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE FOCUS FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND LOWER RGV AND MAINLY A
FINE FUELS ISSUE. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN FRI/SAT, BUT SUFFICIENT
WIND MAY REMAIN FOR MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 28 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 19 59 23 59 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 24 56 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 17 61 22 62 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 25 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 20 64 24 66 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 63 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 32 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 65 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 27 69 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 20 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 56 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 26 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 19 48 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 56 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 19 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 24 64 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 25 63 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 31 58 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 26 67 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 32 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 25 67 30 69 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 30 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 27 66 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 34 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 32 68 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 32 58 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 64 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 59 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 28 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 33 64 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 61 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 24 59 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 22 63 26 69 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 20 67 24 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 64 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 30 64 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 27 64 29 72 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 29 72 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 69 34 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 30 72 37 79 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 34 70 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 31 70 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 28 68 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 34 69 35 78 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 33 70 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 30 69 35 74 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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