906
FXUS65 KABQ 041938
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
138 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY BEGIN TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME HEAT AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RESULTING IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN A FEW PLACES. THIS RESULTS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK
MAINLY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING ABQ METRO AND THEN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
SITUATED OVER AZ/NM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SUPPORTING EXTREME
HEAT. THERE ARE EVENT MUCH COOLER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THAT ARE
OBSERVING UNUSUALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT BUT NOT QUITE
GETTING TO MAJOR HEAT RISK OR A NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES.
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF OVERLAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
INSTABILITY, LIFT AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO BE OVER NE NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. SPC MAINTAINS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS AREA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. STORM MODES
WILL LIKELY BE PULSE SINGLE CELLS TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT
PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS. MORE INTENSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW
QUARTER SIZED HAIL STONES BUT LAPSE RATES ARE WELL...THERE HAVE
BEEN BETTER LAPSE RATES. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CERTAINLY BOOST
THE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH DCAPES 1200-1400 J/KG. TOMORROW LOOKS
TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE SAME AREAS OUTLOOKED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A SUBTLE SHIFTS AND WOBBLES WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE MAY BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
GREAT BASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WOULD COULD ALLOW FOR MORE
CONVECTION ASSUMING THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUE MOISTURE UNDER THE
RIDGE. OVER THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SO
ANY RELIEF FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED IF ANY.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR A
BETTER MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. ONLY PROBLEM
IS THAT THE AXIS OF THE MOISTURE PLUME IS OVER AZ SO THE CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NM IS NOT AS GREAT AS WHAT THE MODELS
DEPICT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE MOISTURE COULD DEVELOP
EAST INTO NM BUT THESE KINDS OF SCENARIOS FOR A WET MONSOON
PATTERN TO DEVELOP JUST HAVE NOT PANNED OUT SO FAR THIS YEAR. BUT
WE REALLY NEED THIS TO PAN OUT BECAUSE A LOT OF AREAS STILL NEED
PRECIPITATION TO RECOVER FROM AN ABYSMAL WINTER/SPRING.
39
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TAFS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT COULD STILL CAUSE SOME OUTFLOW TO MOVE
INTO KABQ/KAEG/KSAF THIS AFTERNOON. PROB30 WAS LEFT FOR TSRA AT
THESE TERMINALS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VERY LOW. VERY VERY
LOW. ALSO THE TIME OF THE PROB30 WAS PUSHED BACK AN HOUR INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW.
39
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1251 PM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NORMALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THIS DISCUSSION WILL SAY SOMETHING
ALONG THE LINES OF NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS
BUT THE REALITY IS THAT THE DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH LANGUAGE.
STARTING WITH FUEL MOISTURE WELL SIMPLY THERE IS A DECREASING
AMOUNT OF FUEL MOISTURE DUE TO A PUTRID MONSOON SEASON SO FAR.
MONSOON SEASON FOR PRECIPITATION IS ALWAYS HIT AND MISS AND IT'S
BEEN A LOT MORE MISS. ERC'S ARE GETTING UP INTO THE 80-90
PERCENTILES OF CLIMO FOR MANY AREAS IN NM EXCLUDING MAYBE THE GILA
FOREST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WHILE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH CRITICAL LEVELS, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT IN
MANY AREAS AND BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IF
WINDS EVER DID DECIDE TO INCREASE, IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET
RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM A LIGHTING IGNITION GIVEN THE STATE OF FUEL
MOISTURE AND LOW HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 99 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 52 97 51 98 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 60 95 59 96 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 61 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 57 91 57 90 / 5 5 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 60 96 59 95 / 5 5 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 61 91 61 90 / 20 10 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 65 91 65 91 / 40 20 5 30
DATIL........................... 60 87 60 87 / 30 30 20 50
RESERVE......................... 60 94 59 94 / 30 30 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 63 97 62 98 / 30 50 30 70
CHAMA........................... 54 91 53 91 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 91 63 91 / 10 10 5 20
PECOS........................... 58 95 58 92 / 10 5 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 91 57 91 / 10 5 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 48 82 48 82 / 20 5 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 86 42 86 / 20 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 55 95 55 94 / 10 0 10 5
MORA............................ 53 90 54 89 / 10 10 5 30
ESPANOLA........................ 63 98 62 99 / 10 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 64 93 63 93 / 10 5 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 96 61 95 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 100 69 100 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 99 68 99 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 102 67 102 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 100 69 100 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 66 100 66 100 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 102 67 102 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 100 65 101 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 69 102 68 102 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 100 66 100 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 98 66 98 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 101 68 101 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 101 71 102 / 40 5 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 95 62 93 / 20 5 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 64 94 64 94 / 20 5 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 96 59 95 / 30 10 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 97 57 96 / 30 10 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 92 60 91 / 30 10 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 95 61 94 / 50 10 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 93 62 92 / 40 10 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 95 67 95 / 20 10 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 61 87 61 86 / 10 30 20 70
CAPULIN......................... 55 88 54 88 / 40 30 20 30
RATON........................... 54 93 54 92 / 20 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 96 55 95 / 30 20 30 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 92 56 90 / 10 20 10 30
CLAYTON......................... 62 95 62 95 / 40 10 30 0
ROY............................. 61 93 60 91 / 30 10 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 68 100 67 99 / 10 5 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 96 65 94 / 20 10 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 100 68 100 / 20 0 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 68 98 68 98 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 70 98 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 98 69 98 / 5 0 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 71 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 96 66 96 / 0 5 10 10
ELK............................. 62 94 62 93 / 0 10 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-205-207-219.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ201-205-207-
219.
SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...39
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