013
FXUS65 KABQ 212342 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 525 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
- A FEW STRAY EVAPORATING SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND PATCHY BLOWING
DUST. VERY LOW CHANCE OF NEW FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY FIRE STARTS. THE AREAL EXTENT AND
SEVERITY OF FIRE DANGER WILL VARY FROM DAY TO DAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
HIGH BASED CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT ECHOES, BUT
CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO GROW GIVEN THE VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND
THERE SHOULD BE A FEW MORE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. GIVEN HOW
LOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS, ANY LIGHTNING THAT DOES OCCUR
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. NEW MEXICO WILL COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, WITH STRENGTHENING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SO THE STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS WILL FOCUS IN THIS AREA. MODELS HAVE NOTABLY TRENDED
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOCATION OF THE 700 MB JET SO FORECAST WIND
GUSTS AT THE SFC HAVE TRENDED LOWER AS WELL. NONETHELESS, IT WILL
STILL BE A BREEZY TO WINDY DAY AROUND THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
700 MB FLOW WILL INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS COULD BRING A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO LOCATIONS LIKE LAS
VEGAS AND RATON DURING THE NIGHT, BUT THE LACK OF A STABLE LAYER AT
CREST LEVEL SHOULD PREVENT THE OCCURRENCE OF CRASHING MOUNTAIN WAVES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE 700 MB JET SHIFTS
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED AND THEREFORE
HUMIDITIES LOW AS A RESULT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK LATE MORNING, WITH GUSTY
WINDS SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, A DRY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT ALIGN WELL WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, WHICH
WILL HELP TO LIMIT MAX GUST POTENTIAL AND ANY BLOWING DUST CONCERNS.
ZONAL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE
SPRING WINDS AROUND EACH DAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (50 MPH) AREAWIDE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOONS, BUT WINDS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER ON SUNDAY THANKS TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE ENS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A 994
MB SFC LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AS LOW AS 988 MB. WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS SET UP WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SFC
LOW DEVELOPS, BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-40
RIGHT NOW. A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT WILL FOCUS OVER
FAR NORTHERN NM ON SUNDAY, WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING OF A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS MAY BRING SOME BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
HIGH AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
SCATTERED, WEAK AND HIGH-BASED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO WITH MOST OF THE LIGHT RAINFALL
EVAPORATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THROUGH SUNSET, THESE SHOWERS
WILL PRODUCE VERY SMALL AREAS OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KT
BENEATH THEM BEFORE DISAPPEARING. THINNING CLOUDS WILL BE OBSERVED
OVER MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS EAST OF A KROW TO KCVS LINE, WHERE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1,000 AND 3,000 FT. THESE
LOW CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO STAY EAST AND OUT OF KROW, SO NO
MENTION HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF THERE (JUST A 10-20% CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE). WINDS STRENGTHEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KT BEING COMMON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
..EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...
A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS LIKELY AS WELL.
GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, ANY LIGHTNING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL NOT
BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF A
GREAT BASIN TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOTABLY TRENDED DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS WILL STAY
TO THE NORTH IN COLORADO DURING PEAK DAYTIME MIXING. AS A RESULT,
ONLY A PORTION OF THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WHILE
MUCH OF IT REMAINED AS A WATCH WITH WINDS BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN LONG-DURATION CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ON
THURSDAY SINCE WINDS WILL LIKELY PEAK EARLIER DURING THE DAY THAN
NORMAL.
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR-
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS THEN WINDS TREND STRONGER ON SUNDAY, INCREASING
THE COVERAGE OF NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR FAR NORTHERN NM THIS
WEEKEND, BUT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING FIRE DANGER HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 75 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 37 72 29 63 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 42 72 34 62 / 10 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 71 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 69 34 63 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 38 75 33 67 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 72 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 47 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 42 70 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 36 75 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 41 80 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 65 28 56 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 72 42 63 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 72 41 65 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 69 37 60 / 10 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 37 59 31 51 / 10 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 27 66 30 57 / 10 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 38 73 33 65 / 10 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 72 39 63 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 80 41 70 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 47 73 41 65 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 77 41 68 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 80 49 72 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 82 46 74 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 85 45 77 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 46 85 41 78 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 46 85 41 77 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 51 84 46 75 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 85 43 77 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 52 78 47 70 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 83 46 75 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 50 88 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 75 43 67 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 76 44 68 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 77 43 69 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 39 78 43 71 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 74 44 67 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 78 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 76 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 72 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 43 74 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 41 78 40 72 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 41 80 41 73 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 75 44 68 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 84 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 46 80 44 73 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 49 88 50 82 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 83 50 78 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 52 90 53 83 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 52 89 53 82 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 52 90 54 84 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 88 53 83 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 51 91 54 89 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 84 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 81 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-105-106-120-122-124-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR NMZ104-121-
123-125.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...52
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