022
FXUS65 KABQ 061801 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 OR 55 MPH WILL
INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS.
- RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WET ROADS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER ALONG AND WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WITH A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAKLY CLOSED LOW IS SLIDING ACROSS UT
AND AZ. THE VORT MAX/BASE OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THAT IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS AZ WHICH ARE MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. POPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL OVERALL. IT STILL APPEARS THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ABOVE 9000 FEET, THOUGH THE
WHITE STUFF WILL MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING AS WELL.
WITH THE TROUGH A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, THAT TRENDS THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. H7 WIND SPEEDS
STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 TO 55 KT, THOUGH MAINLY SOUTH OF KCQC.
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST
CHAVES COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE, THOUGH CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRAY HIGH WIND OBSERVATION. THE PACIFIC FRONT STILL LOOKS
TO RACE WEST TO EAST ACROSS NM BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z, AND THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE SOUTH CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD BE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12 TO 15Z. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT OVER EAST CENTRAL NM WHILE A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHWEST KS/OK PANHANDLE. THUS, THE STRONG WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST PRIOR TO
SUNSET. HAVE ADDED HARDING AND UNION COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SANDIA AND MANZANO MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WIND
ADVISORY. GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 MPH STILL LOOK LIKELY. WINDS
WILL TRAIL OFF THIS EVENING AND IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT,
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS.
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON, EVEN ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT GAP WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERALL.
BEST CHANCES FOR BREEZY GAP WINDS WOULD BE AROUND THE CARRIZOZO
AREA. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHILE THE INITIAL LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM NM, A SECONDARY
TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY, CLOSE OFF ON SATURDAY AND RETROGRADE TO JUST WEST OF THE
NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW MEANDERS AROUND THAT
AREA ON SUNDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NORTHEAST NM ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL DO LITTLE EXCEPT INCREASE MID LEVEL WINDS TO 20
TO 35KT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEEPEN TO
AROUND 1001MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE CO/NM/OK BORDER. THUS,
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. GUSTS UPWARD OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA AND
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE WILL
ADVECT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NM BY LATE MONDAY INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40. THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER WITH REGARDS TO
HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT. TIMING, PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ALL REMAIN IN QUESTION, THOUGH IT
APPEARS MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD KEEPING A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
NM AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS THE
FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF I-40. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD. HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD
APPEARS TO BE ON TAP ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE, DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE
SHAPE WED INTO THURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE CO BORDER. OTHERWISE,
STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARD
SUNSET THIS AFTERNOON AS A TEMPERATURE INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP
AND THE TAIL END OF A JETMAX ALOFT EXITS TO THE EAST. AN
EXCEPTION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE A NORTH AND NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN UP TO
30 KT SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS. EAST CANYON WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE ALSO LIKELY IN CARRIZOZO SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
NM WHERE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 OR 55
MPH AND RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, HOWEVER, DUE TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
RACING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. THUS, THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. LESS WIND AND NEAR TO BELOW TEMPS ARE ON TAP AREAWIDE
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM WHERE SINGLE DIGIT RH WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CONTINUED BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM ON MONDAY, BUT
ON MONDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAVORED SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY, BUT DRY, BREEZY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 24 53 25 / 40 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 44 13 52 15 / 80 10 0 0
CUBA............................ 45 19 51 23 / 50 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 15 53 17 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 45 22 51 25 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 17 54 19 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 47 20 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 27 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 49 22 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 55 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 59 22 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 37 13 45 17 / 80 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 26 50 30 / 30 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 47 20 52 27 / 20 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 19 48 25 / 40 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 36 13 39 21 / 40 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 7 46 14 / 30 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 47 15 51 16 / 30 5 0 0
MORA............................ 47 17 53 24 / 20 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 54 20 58 22 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 50 25 52 30 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 22 54 26 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 32 58 36 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 29 59 33 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 27 62 30 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 30 59 32 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 60 25 61 25 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 56 28 60 30 / 20 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 24 61 25 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 57 28 60 30 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 26 61 27 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 30 55 33 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 29 60 31 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 30 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 25 53 30 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 50 27 54 32 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 22 55 26 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 17 56 20 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 20 51 26 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 22 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 24 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 30 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 28 53 32 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 17 51 21 / 10 30 0 0
RATON........................... 54 17 54 18 / 20 30 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 56 19 57 18 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 18 53 25 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 26 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 57 22 55 25 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 25 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 25 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 27 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 32 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 31 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 27 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 73 35 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 65 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 62 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ221-223-226-
229>234-240.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44
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