654
FXUS65 KABQ 141732 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1053 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDESDAY WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS LATE WEEK. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG H5 600 DAM HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
THIS MORNING, PLACING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. THE DRY
MID-LEVEL AIRMASS CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ACROSS EASTERN
NM, WITH WESTERN NM ENTRENCHED WITHIN A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
THAT IS CIRCULATING AROUND THE DOMINANT RIDGE. THE DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF EASTERN NM DRY TODAY, WITH STORMS CONFINED
TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THERE IS ANOTHER HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WYOMING AS
WELL AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND IT IN THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
TODAY AS IT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION. STORMS WILL INITIATE
ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS EVIDENCED BY LIS IN
THE -3 TO -5C RANGE AND MU CAPE GENERALLY 200 TO 500 J/KG. DESPITE
THE SHORTWAVE, SHEAR WILL STILL BE LACKING SO ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAINS UNLIKELY. NONETHELESS, CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE INTENSE
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH STRONGER OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE SW SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS JUST NORTHEAST OF SANTA FE, WITH
90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3" RANGE HERE.
A SECONDARY (AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER) SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW IN THE
STEPS OF THE TUESDAY WAVE, EXCEPT IT WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO
INTERACT WITH AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED
NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN NM AND INFLOW FROM THE EAST SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A
FEW TRAINING STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL TREND HIGHER AS A
RESULT, BUT THE OVERALL CONCERN LEVEL REMAINS LOW GIVEN HOW DRY
SOILS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOST OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE A
WELCOMED SIGN FOR THE PARCHED LANDSCAPE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE LATE WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PUMPED INTO WESTERN NM AND AN EASTERLY WAVE MAKES ITS
WAY ACROSS TEXAS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS COULD TAKE A
SLIGHTLY DIP ON THURSDAY THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING EASTERLY WAVE, BUT THIS COULD BE COUNTERACTED BY THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS ALOFT. THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE EXTENSIVE COULD COVERAGE SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
MAY DECREASE OVERALL RAINFALL INTENSITY, EVEN IF RAINFALL IS
EFFICIENT FROM A MORE MOIST VERTICAL PROFILE. DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS
WAY IN FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE WEST, BUT IT
WILL STILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND,
KEEPING THE EXISTING MOISTURE AROUND AND RECYCLING IT. ALL ENSEMBLE
SYSTEM MEAN 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERNS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A COUPLE
OF EXCEPTIONS. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IN ADDITION, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KROW. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST OF KABQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CREATE A GUSTY EAST
CANYON WIND, WITH PEAK SPEEDS BETWEEN 35-40KTS. OTHERWISE, GUSTS
TO 35-40KTS WILL BE COMMON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. BENEFICIAL MOISTURE IS ON TAP THIS WEEK WITH SCATTERED STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN EACH DAY, WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS ALL WEEK, WITH TEMPS RISING BACK UP TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES BY THE WEEKEND. LOCALIZED WETTING FOOTPRINTS MID-WEEK WILL
BECOME LARGER LATER IN THE WEEK AS RAIN COVERAGE INCREASES AND
STORMS BECOME MORE EFFICIENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 94 65 93 63 / 30 20 30 70
DULCE........................... 92 52 88 51 / 40 50 60 80
CUBA............................ 87 57 83 55 / 40 40 50 50
GALLUP.......................... 90 57 88 55 / 60 40 60 70
EL MORRO........................ 85 57 83 55 / 60 30 70 80
GRANTS.......................... 89 58 87 56 / 40 30 50 70
QUEMADO......................... 87 59 83 57 / 40 30 70 70
MAGDALENA....................... 85 64 84 61 / 10 10 40 50
DATIL........................... 83 59 81 57 / 30 30 60 70
RESERVE......................... 91 56 86 55 / 30 40 70 40
GLENWOOD........................ 93 58 88 57 / 50 40 60 40
CHAMA........................... 85 49 81 48 / 40 50 70 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 62 82 60 / 40 20 50 50
PECOS........................... 83 54 79 53 / 70 30 60 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 54 80 53 / 60 30 60 50
RED RIVER....................... 74 46 70 45 / 60 30 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 41 73 40 / 60 30 70 60
TAOS............................ 86 53 83 52 / 50 30 50 50
MORA............................ 80 51 76 50 / 70 30 70 40
ESPANOLA........................ 92 61 88 59 / 40 20 40 40
SANTA FE........................ 85 60 81 58 / 60 20 60 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 88 59 85 57 / 50 20 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 65 87 63 / 30 20 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 65 88 63 / 20 20 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 65 91 63 / 20 20 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 66 89 65 / 20 20 30 40
BELEN........................... 93 65 91 62 / 20 20 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 93 65 90 64 / 30 20 40 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 63 90 60 / 20 20 30 30
CORRALES........................ 94 65 90 64 / 20 20 40 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 64 91 61 / 20 20 30 30
PLACITAS........................ 90 65 87 64 / 30 20 40 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 93 66 89 64 / 20 20 40 40
SOCORRO......................... 95 70 92 67 / 0 5 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 60 81 58 / 40 20 50 50
TIJERAS......................... 87 60 84 59 / 40 20 50 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 57 83 56 / 40 20 50 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 54 84 52 / 30 20 50 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 55 80 54 / 20 10 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 58 83 56 / 20 20 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 59 82 56 / 10 20 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 62 85 61 / 5 5 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 79 55 75 54 / 5 10 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 80 54 80 53 / 20 5 10 5
RATON........................... 85 53 84 53 / 30 5 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 86 55 84 54 / 20 10 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 82 54 78 53 / 40 20 50 20
CLAYTON......................... 87 61 87 60 / 10 0 5 0
ROY............................. 83 59 82 58 / 10 10 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 90 63 / 10 5 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 62 86 60 / 5 5 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 63 91 63 / 10 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 90 62 87 61 / 10 0 10 5
PORTALES........................ 91 62 88 61 / 10 0 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 64 89 62 / 10 0 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 92 67 89 64 / 0 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 86 61 84 59 / 0 20 20 10
ELK............................. 84 56 80 55 / 5 10 20 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11
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