126
FXUS65 KABQ 081745 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
- A PAIR OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TODAY WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. WINTRY TRAVEL WITH SNOW
PACKED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL IMPACT MANY HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS ABOVE 6,500 FEET AND ALSO THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY.
- THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HOUSING OR
HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
THE FIRST IN A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NM SHORTLY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE,
FORMERLY A CLOSED PACIFIC LOW, WAS ABLE TO RETAIN A TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HALVES OF THE STATE WHILE PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FOR PRECIPITATION. SO FAR, SNOW LEVELS HAVE TENDED TO RANGE BETWEEN
6,000 AND 7,000 FT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS CURRENTLY STAYING ABOVE
WHILE RAIN FALLS BELOW. SEVERAL LOCALES HAVE ALREADY REGISTERED 0.1
TO 0.3" OF LIQUID PRECIP WITH A FEW EVEN ECLIPSING 0.4" AND BY DAWN
MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH
SNOW ACCUMULATION. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED LATE LAST
EVENING FOR THE SANTA FE METRO AREA WITH MUCH OF THE IMPACTS
EXPECTED TO INITIALLY BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ZONE AND
INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS (ABOVE 7,500
FT). BETWEEN DAWN AND THE LATE MORNING, A LULL IN PRECIP IS
PROJECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RACES NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, PERTURBED WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, PROVIDING SOME FAINT
OROGRAPHICS AND LIGHT PERIODIC SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING CLINES CORNERS, SANTA ROSA, FT.
SUMNER, CLOVIS, PORTALES, AND RURAL EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH HAVE WARRANTED A WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
BY THE EARLY EVENING, THE POLAR JET WILL BE QUICKLY USHERING IN THE
NEXT PERTURBATION, A DEEPENING TROUGH, SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT, AND
THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GENERATE A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW AS IT
OVERTAKES WESTERN NM AND ADVANCES TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT
AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR WITH PRECIPITATION
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATION. THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND DIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW A COUPLE TO A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW TO STACK UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, LOWER
ELEVATIONS (LESS THAN 6,000 FT) WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, BUT
WITH LOWER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (AND OF COURSE LESS OROGRAPHICS)
THAT WOULD YIELD A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS
TIME.
JUST BEFORE DAWN, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL
NM, DRAWING IN A STRONG COLD AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH. HEFTY ISOBAR
PACKING AND FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM
WILL THEN POSE CONCERNS AS THE UPPER LOW AND TROWAL FEATURE WILL BE
MOVING TOWARD THIS AREA THROUGH THE POST DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL
PRODUCE BANDED SNOW WITH HEAVIER MESOSCALE SNOW RATES IN A FIELD OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WITH PERIODS OF
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT FROM THE RATON PASS
EASTWARD, AS WELL AS THE U.S. 64/87 STRETCH BETWEEN RATON AND
CLAYTON, SO AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS IN ORDER
THERE WITH ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES FARTHER SOUTH SOUTHWEST WHERE
IMPACTS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SEVERE. THESE IMPACTS IN NORTHEASTERN
NM WOULD BE MOST SEVERE IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, EVEN AS SNOWFALL RATES
DECLINE. REMAINING AREAS WOULD SEE SNOW WANING WITH WESTERN ZONES
LIKELY BEING DONE BEFORE NOON FRIDAY. A COLD DAY WILL BE IN STORE
FRIDAY FOR ALL ZONES, AND THE BRISK NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS
WILL ADD TO THE CHILL, POSING A STARK END TO OUR ANOMALOUS WARM
START TO THE WINTER SEASON.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND WANE INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WINDS SETTLING MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD, DROPPING 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MANY ZONES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
MUCH DRIER AND LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NOTEWORTHY
EVOLUTIONS TO THE UPPER PATTERN ON SATURDAY INCLUDE A RELAXING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WHILE WEAK VORTICITY SAGS SOUTHWARD OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SETTLES OVER SONORA AND THE GULF OF CA IN THE
FORM OF A WEAK AND DRY CUT-OFF LOW. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
SATURDAY, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID JANUARY WITH VERY LIGHT BREEZES OVERALL. GOING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE, A
RECIPE FOR VERY EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WILL BE IN STORE.
THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL RETROGRADE MORE TO THE WEST OVER THE BAJA ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE POLAR JET REMAINS WELL DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF NM. THIS WILL KEEP THE LIGHT WIND FIELD OVER US WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND GETTING UNDERWAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND, AND WE
SHOULD REACH NEAR NORMALCY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS AND BLENDS INDICATE
THAT THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL SLOWLY GET DRAWN EASTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND TUESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TAKING THE FEATURE
CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO, POSING NO CONSEQUENCE
TO NM. MEANWHILE, A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE
STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHERN CA WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH CARVES OUT
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SLOWLY REINTRODUCE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY, AND EVEN MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW TO NM. WHILE THE FLOW
APPEARS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY, THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO SOME BOUTS
OF STRONGER WINDS AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
A BREAK B/W LAST NIGHT'S FIRST ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER AND THE
NEXT ARRIVING WINTER WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. VFR WITH MOSTLY SKC DOMINATES EASTERN NM
WITH PATCHY MVFR/IFR HOLDING ONTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS. SHOWERS OF MOSTLY SNOW
WILL CROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFMN-KGUP FIRST
UP NEAR 21Z WITH SHOWERS OF SNOW BRINGING A RETURN TO IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS FIRST BURST OF SNOW WILL ADVANCE TO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AT KSAF-KABQ-KAEG BY 00Z TO 01Z. SNOW LEVELS ARE
LIKELY TO START ABOVE THE KABQ AND KAEG TERMINALS BEFORE LOWERING
TO VALLEY FLOORS NEAR 04Z TO 06Z. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SURPASSING A QUARTER INCH AT KABQ IS LIKELY
NEEDED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING SNOW WILL FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, AND
THEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR
FRIDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCING LIFR
CONDITIONS FROM KRTN TO KCAO AT MINIMUM, POTENTIALLY SOUTHWARD IN
BRIEF PATCHES TO KLVS TO KTCC AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. VFR
LOOKS TO HOLD ON TO SOUTHEASTERN AREAS CLOSER TO KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM MST THU JAN 8 2026
A ONE-TWO PUNCH OF WINTRY WEATHER IS UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY WHEN THE SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
STRONGER WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE WINDS ARE STILL NOT PROJECTED TO CAUSE ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED HUMIDITY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL OFFER FUEL MOISTURE WITH THE
BEST BENEFICIARIES BEING THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF NM IN THE FORM OF
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL. THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL
ALSO GET AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
FRIDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL OBSERVE LESS
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE FORM OF LIGHTER SNOW (A FEW
FLURRIES TO A DUSTING) FRIDAY. STRONG, BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SNOWFALL IN THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY. COLD, BUT
DRIER AND MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE SATURDAY. THE
TRANQUILITY WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURE READINGS. ANY PRESCRIBED BURNING
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LESS EFFICIENT MIXING AND POOR SMOKE
VENTILATION AND DISPERSION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 24 37 12 / 50 70 10 0
DULCE........................... 41 16 38 2 / 60 70 50 10
CUBA............................ 41 18 30 6 / 80 90 70 20
GALLUP.......................... 40 12 31 -5 / 90 80 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 38 16 29 3 / 90 90 30 0
GRANTS.......................... 42 17 33 -3 / 70 80 30 0
QUEMADO......................... 40 17 26 0 / 70 90 40 0
MAGDALENA....................... 46 25 34 16 / 30 70 20 10
DATIL........................... 39 20 27 9 / 50 80 20 5
RESERVE......................... 43 15 34 -2 / 90 90 30 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 20 44 4 / 100 100 20 0
CHAMA........................... 34 16 31 6 / 60 70 60 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 40 26 32 13 / 50 80 70 30
PECOS........................... 41 21 33 9 / 40 80 90 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 22 31 9 / 30 60 80 20
RED RIVER....................... 30 15 22 4 / 30 70 90 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 12 25 -16 / 30 80 90 30
TAOS............................ 42 20 34 2 / 30 70 80 20
MORA............................ 43 20 32 4 / 20 80 90 30
ESPANOLA........................ 47 25 41 6 / 40 80 80 30
SANTA FE........................ 41 25 33 13 / 50 80 80 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 24 35 12 / 50 80 80 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 28 36 19 / 50 90 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 28 38 19 / 50 90 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 28 41 15 / 50 90 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 29 39 19 / 50 90 50 20
BELEN........................... 52 28 41 9 / 50 80 50 20
BERNALILLO...................... 51 28 39 18 / 50 90 60 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 52 26 40 9 / 60 90 50 20
CORRALES........................ 51 28 39 17 / 50 90 60 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 28 41 12 / 60 90 50 20
PLACITAS........................ 45 27 35 19 / 50 90 70 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 28 39 19 / 50 90 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 55 31 45 15 / 30 60 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 41 23 31 14 / 50 90 70 40
TIJERAS......................... 42 24 33 17 / 50 90 70 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 23 34 12 / 40 80 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 21 35 4 / 40 80 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 22 31 11 / 20 70 80 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 24 35 13 / 50 80 60 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 24 36 13 / 40 60 50 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 28 40 18 / 30 60 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 42 23 36 15 / 20 50 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 45 18 24 4 / 5 70 90 10
RATON........................... 49 21 27 3 / 10 70 90 10
SPRINGER........................ 51 23 32 1 / 5 60 80 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 46 22 30 5 / 10 70 90 20
CLAYTON......................... 52 26 29 12 / 0 60 90 20
ROY............................. 53 25 31 6 / 5 60 90 20
CONCHAS......................... 60 29 40 12 / 0 60 80 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 29 37 15 / 0 60 80 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 28 39 14 / 0 60 70 30
CLOVIS.......................... 59 31 44 19 / 0 30 40 30
PORTALES........................ 61 31 46 19 / 0 10 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 29 41 14 / 0 30 50 20
ROSWELL......................... 64 33 52 21 / 0 5 20 20
PICACHO......................... 56 28 46 19 / 0 20 20 20
ELK............................. 54 23 44 13 / 0 20 10 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ227-230.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ215-
228-229-231.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ202-206-208.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ205-226.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ203-210-211-
213-214-221.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ212-218.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ223-233-239.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24
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