891  
FXUS65 KABQ 232338 AAA  
AFDABQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM  
538 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD OVER NM IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER SE AZ. SOME TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL  
CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, ALLOWING THESE HIGH  
CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A  
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF KGUP, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  
THE VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY MORNING SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
34  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2021
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL GET SHUNTED EASTWARD, AS  
A LOW APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS OVER  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY EXPAND OVER NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK, DROPPING TO A FEW DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...  
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A WEAK BAJA LOW, WHICH IS  
CURRENTLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS FROM OVER FAR NW MEXICO PER THE  
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE  
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS WILL TAKE PWATS FROM BELOW NORMAL TO  
ABOVE NORMAL AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE BEYOND 36HRS. IN THE  
MEANTIME, EXPECT MORE CLOUDS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS WITH A SLIGHT  
DOWNTREND IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (SPRINKLES)  
AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF  
OUR CWFA AND VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE  
TO THE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY BEING MODELED. THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH TERRAIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
WETTING CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE STILL LOW.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WON'T BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT'S GIVEN LESS EFFICIENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  
 
LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...  
ON SATURDAY, THE HIGH STARTS TO GET SHUNTED EASTWARD, AS A LOW  
APPROACHES FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM  
NORTHWARD, FOCUSING ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST  
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO STILL. BUT, MORE WIND THAN RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT  
FROM THESE HIGH-BASED CELLS. THE GFS HAS PWAT'S JUMPING UP TO NEARLY  
AN INCH ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING AS THE  
LOW INCHES EASTWARD, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  
FROM MONDAY ONWARD, THE MODELS BEGINS TO DIVERGE. WITH THE  
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM, DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NBM AND NOT  
MAKE ANY DRASTIC CHANGES. BY MID-WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO  
REBUILD TO OUR EAST, WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND GETTING ABSORBED IN  
THE FLOW. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT THAN THE  
06Z RUN FOR LATE WEEK, SHOWING A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE  
EAST OF THE STATE, WHILE NM REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE FIRST  
WEEKEND OF BALLOON FIESTA. THE GFS LOW TRACKS FURTHER NORTH AND ABOUT  
24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF KEEPS PRECIPITATION  
CONCENTRATED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH  
MOIST EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN BEGIN TO DROP BACK BELOW NORMAL BY  
LATE WEEK WITH THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  
 
11/31  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
INCREASING HUMIDITY AND IMPROVING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO UPPER  
LOWS WITH A PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP IMPACT THE REGION. ANOTHER UPPER  
LOW MAY IMPACT THE REGION FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH CONTINUED  
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
 
11  
 

 
   
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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