043
FXUS65 KABQ 130532 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPRAWL
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THURSDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER AND OFFSHORE OF CA.
THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN AREAS HOT WHERE HIGHER HEIGHTS AND MORE
SUBSIDENCE WILL BE FOUND WHILE THE WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL
AREAS OF NM OBSERVE INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH MORE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS LINGERING. PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
OVER WESTERN NM TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXPANDING INTO MORE NORTHERN
AND A FEW CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE, CLOUDS, AND PRECIPITATION WILL ACT TO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES, BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS CLOSER, IF NOT SLIGHTLY
BELOW, NORMAL IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO NM.
PWATS LOOK TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.85 TO 1.3 INCHES WITH THE
DRIEST AREAS REMAINING IN THE NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NM WHILE THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY HOLDS HIGHER
VALUES. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE FARTHER EAST INTO FRIDAY,
INCLUDING MORE CELLS OVER THE SACRAMENTOS WHICH WILL POSE
CONCERNS FOR BURN SCARS. STORMS WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME MOVING OFF
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN THE SOUTH-
TO-NORTH STEERING FLOW, BUT A FEW MESOSCALE COLD POOLS MAY ALLOW
FOR PROPAGATION FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON INTO
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS INITIATING OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FILLING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS
AND LOWLANDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE MORE ACTIVE STORM DAYS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. THE SLOW STRUGGLING EXPANSION OF STORMS IN
EASTERN ZONES WILL SUBDUE THE HEAT SLIGHTLY, BUT READINGS WILL
STILL COMMONLY REACH THE MID 90'S IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO GROW FOR NEXT WEEK WITH PROGNOSES INDICATING THAT
THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH BACK MORE CENTRALLY OVER NM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST MORE SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH A LESS OPTIMAL STEERING
FLOW FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE A REDUCTION IN
PWATS OVER MUCH OF AZ AND WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM. BLENDED GUIDANCE
FROM THE NBM RETAINS HIGH POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND THIS COULD BE
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FINE-TUNING AND REDUCTIONS AS SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS UPDATE THE FORECAST. THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SLOWER
STEERING FLOW MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MOVE FAR OFF OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN. THEREFORE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAIN
RANGES WOULD FARE BEST WITH OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL WITH
CHANCES DECREASING SHARPLY DOWNSLOPE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM, BUT WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. AMPLE
MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BKN TO
OVC CIGS BETWEEN 7K AND 13K FT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE FROM
SW TO NE AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES, BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2026
NO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS AS THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REPEATEDLY DEVELOPS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR IN THESE NORTHEASTERN ZONES, BUT NO WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL THREAT IS FORECAST. OUTSIDE OF NORTHEASTERN NM, WIND
CONCERNS WILL PRIMARILY BE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF OUTFLOWS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL BE
GETTING UNDERWAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS AS FUELS REMAIN VULNERABLE, AND
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OVER THE FINER FUELS OF THE PLAINS
WHERE DRIER SOILS AND VEGETATION WILL BE COUPLED WITH MORE SPARSE
STORM ACTIVITY AND SMALLER FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAIN. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDUCE IN COVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR
SETTLING BACK OVER NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 85 62 87 / 60 10 30 20
DULCE........................... 48 82 48 85 / 70 40 30 40
CUBA............................ 55 81 56 83 / 50 20 50 30
GALLUP.......................... 53 79 53 81 / 70 30 20 40
EL MORRO........................ 52 75 52 78 / 70 40 30 70
GRANTS.......................... 55 80 55 82 / 60 40 30 70
QUEMADO......................... 55 75 55 78 / 60 50 40 70
MAGDALENA....................... 60 79 61 82 / 20 70 30 60
DATIL........................... 54 74 55 78 / 40 60 30 60
RESERVE......................... 54 81 53 85 / 70 60 40 60
GLENWOOD........................ 57 85 57 91 / 70 50 20 40
CHAMA........................... 48 75 48 78 / 60 50 20 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 80 60 83 / 30 50 30 50
PECOS........................... 57 82 57 85 / 10 20 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 79 55 82 / 10 50 30 50
RED RIVER....................... 46 70 46 73 / 10 50 20 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 75 38 78 / 10 50 10 70
TAOS............................ 53 82 53 85 / 10 40 20 40
MORA............................ 54 80 53 82 / 20 50 10 70
ESPANOLA........................ 60 87 59 90 / 30 50 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 61 82 61 85 / 20 30 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 85 58 88 / 20 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 89 66 92 / 10 5 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 91 63 93 / 10 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 89 67 91 / 10 10 30 10
BELEN........................... 63 89 63 93 / 10 10 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 65 90 65 93 / 10 10 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 90 61 92 / 10 10 30 10
CORRALES........................ 66 91 66 93 / 10 10 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 89 64 92 / 10 10 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 64 87 64 89 / 10 5 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 89 66 92 / 10 10 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 66 90 66 94 / 20 50 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 83 58 86 / 10 5 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 59 83 60 86 / 10 5 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 85 56 88 / 20 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 87 55 90 / 10 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 82 58 86 / 10 10 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 84 57 87 / 10 5 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 84 57 86 / 10 5 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 88 64 90 / 10 5 10 40
RUIDOSO......................... 59 82 58 83 / 10 5 5 70
CAPULIN......................... 57 83 55 85 / 0 40 20 60
RATON........................... 56 87 55 88 / 5 50 20 70
SPRINGER........................ 57 89 57 91 / 5 40 20 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 84 56 87 / 10 20 5 30
CLAYTON......................... 66 93 64 94 / 0 5 20 20
ROY............................. 61 88 61 90 / 5 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 69 98 68 99 / 5 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 92 65 94 / 10 5 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 99 69 100 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 70 99 70 99 / 5 0 5 20
PORTALES........................ 71 99 71 99 / 5 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 97 68 98 / 5 0 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 72 99 71 100 / 5 0 10 20
PICACHO......................... 66 93 65 93 / 10 10 5 70
ELK............................. 63 91 61 91 / 5 5 5 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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