111
FXUS65 KABQ 232034
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
234 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WHERE ANY FIRE THAT STARTS COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY,
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE RISK FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD
IS HIGHEST ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY,
WHERE WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.
- ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD, AND OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS, WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS AND
BLOWING DUST, AS WELL AS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
A BREEZY AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. STRONG WINDS
HAVE BEEN THE STORY THIS MORNING, WITH CLINES CORNERS PEAKING AT
60KTS (69MPH). THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A 700MB SPEED MAX (~50-60KTS)
TRAVERSING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND A LACK OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALLOWING THOSE 700MB WINDS TO TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
THIS SPEED MAX IS MOVING OUT INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BUT IS
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO NOT BE AS
HIGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EVEN SO,
GUSTS UP TO 45MPH ARE LIKELY, AND SHOULD BEGIN DECREASING BY 8PM.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN WITH 5 DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH 60S AND 70S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM, WARMING UP INTO THE 80S ACROSS EASTERN NM.
LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT ALLOWS FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS. A FEW AREAS IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM SHOULD SEE
LOWS TONIGHT DIP BELOW FREEZING, THOUGH WE ARE STILL BEFORE THE LAST
AVERAGE FREEZE DATE FOR A MAJORITY OF THOSE LOCATIONS, SO NO FREEZE
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WARM, BREEZY
DAY ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER THE 700MB WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE
LIGHTER OVERALL, SO NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR
TOMORROW. PEAK WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 35-40MPH RANGE FOR
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES IN TURN WITH THE SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
SATURDAY BEGINS A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE. AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SPINS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA,
TWO NOTED SPEED MAXES ARE EVIDENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS: ONE OVER
CO/WY/NE AND ONE ENTERING WESTERN CONUS VIA CA/AZ. THIS SOUTHERN
SPEED MAX IS THE ONE TO FOCUS ON AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS NM ON
SATURDAY. 700MB WINDS DON'T APPEAR TO BE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE, BUT
~30KTS, A WELL-MIXED SURFACE LAYER, AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
NM SHOWS ALL THE SIGNS FOR A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
STATE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. THIS SETS THE TONE FOR A POTENTIALLY
MORE IMPACTFUL DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
ROUNDS ITS MAIN PARENT LOW UP IN CANADA. BECAUSE OF THIS, ITS NEAR
AXIS AND DOWNSTREAM WINDS BECOME STRONGER AT ALL LEVELS. 700MB WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BALLOON UP INTO THE 50-60KT RANGE. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STRONGER WINDS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LEE TROUGH
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. THERE IS SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS PASSING, WHICH DELAY/OFFSET
MODEL LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THUS LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON OUR
SIDE. NONETHELESS, ONE SHOULD FORM TO HELP STRENGTHEN THE SURFACE
WINDS. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT A DECENT CHANCE (30-40%) TO EXCEED 60MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY IN WIND PRONE AREAS LIKE
CLINES CORNERS AND THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS (LAS VEGAS AREA). IT'S
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH THESE WINDS BEING STRONGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, BLOWING DUST IS OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN PRECIPITATION FOR AWHILE. WE ARE TOO
FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS ON A DUST FRONT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP IN MIND.
WHILE THE WINDS IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHERN NM,
THIS SHORTWAVE IS SLATED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND NORTHWEST NM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALONGSIDE OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING DUE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW, THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE
FAVORABLY PLACED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SPEED MAX, THUS
AIDING DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
START OFF AS VIRGA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE OCCURS, BUT SHOULD TRANSITION INTO WETTING
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY RAIN
BELOW 8,500-9,000FT, WITH SNOW LIKELY ABOVE THAT. AS THE
PRECIPITATION GOES THROUGH SUNDAY, AREAS NEAR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE AROUND 0.1-0.2" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANY APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUSAS AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHICH COULD SEE A FEW INCHES AT MOST.
THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE. STIFF ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS TO BEGIN THE WEEK, KEEPING MONDAY BREEZY AND RATHER
DRY. DAILY BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN ON TAP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SOMETIME DURING THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A SURGING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40KTS. ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE OBSERVED NEAR KCQC. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO BEEN REPORTED AND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TAPER OFF
BETWEEN 01-03Z FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH FEW TO SKC ELSEWHERE. THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING TERRAIN-DRIVEN DRAINAGE WINDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING KSAF. SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT THU APR 23 2026
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER REMAINS ON
TAP THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. STRONG WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 45-55MPH)
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY ALONG WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FRIDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE LOWEST CONCERN DAY
AS WINDS TAPER OFF A TOUCH, THOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
STILL POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. COVERAGE OF
CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
NEED OF A RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS TREND BACK UP SATURDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND THUS THE CRITICAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NM. WHILE HUMIDITY TRENDS UP A FEW
PERCENTAGE POINTS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT REMAINING BELOW
15%, AND THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED. SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 30-40MPH, WITH A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO
EXCEED 60MPH. HUMIDITY DOES INCREASE FURTHER TOWARDS THAT 15% MARK,
THOUGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
INCREASING HUMIDITY. CURRENT RFTI NUMBERS ARE COMFORTABLY AROUND 5-6
THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 70 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 22 67 34 66 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 30 67 39 65 / 0 0 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 27 68 34 65 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 32 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 29 70 35 68 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 34 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 41 72 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 36 68 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 31 75 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 36 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 24 60 32 61 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 34 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 31 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 26 54 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 19 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 23 68 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 31 67 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 33 73 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 38 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 75 52 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 76 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 79 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 41 77 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 39 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 35 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 78 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 78 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 44 83 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 69 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 71 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 73 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 72 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 42 68 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 31 66 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 29 70 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 29 73 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 39 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 73 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 81 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 76 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 41 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 46 82 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 44 83 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 86 52 89 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 44 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 43 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-109-
121>126.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ215-221-229-233.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ223.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page