363
FXUS65 KABQ 172331 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- A MULTI-DAY THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE MOST CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS WILL IMPACT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ALONG
WITH LOWERING VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING DUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE
TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A 140 KT JET IS DIVING OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO WA/OR/NV,
ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS
CAUSING THE FLOW ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
NM, A SETUP FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THAT ARE ALREADY TRANSPIRING.
THE LOW WILL WORK INTO SOUTHEAST UT TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN MORE OVER NM. WHILE SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL
OBSERVE A DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS EVENING, THE WINDS WILL BE
RATHER ERRATIC INTO THE OVERNIGHT, EXHIBITING EBBS, FLOWS AND
PERIODIC SURGES IN SPEED, ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN ZONES AND
OVER WESTERN NM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FIGHTS TO DECOUPLE. THE 700 MB
WINDS ARE MODELED TO PEAK IN SPEED BETWEEN 09-15Z WITH SPEEDS OF 50-
55 KT OVERLAYING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN OF NM. SPEEDS
WILL THEN RELAX TO A 25 TO 40 KT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS
POSES CONCERNS FOR DAMAGING GUSTS, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT IT WILL BE A HAIR-SPLITTING CLOSE
CALL. SEVERAL ADJACENT ZONES IN NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL NM WILL
ALSO LIKELY NEED WIND ADVISORIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SURFACE GUSTS TO 50
MPH. THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD, OPENING INTO A WAVE MONDAY,
AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY, ONLY GRAZING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BRIEFLY IN THE MORNING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES AREA-WIDE, FALLING BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN
ZONES WHILE EASTERN ONES LOWER TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL GET REPLACED BY RAPID PRESSURE
RISES, COURTESY OF A BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, BUT ALSO A
WELCOME RISE IN DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RUN COOLER IN
EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY WITH ALL ZONES GENERALLY RUNNING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. SURFACE WINDS WOULD VEER IN
THE PLAINS, TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY
WEST SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL IN WESTERN ZONES. WHERE THESE AREAS
CONVERGE, INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, GUSTY CONDITIONS (25 TO 35 MPH) ARE BEING MODELED. HOWEVER,
SPEEDS WILL STILL BE DRASTICALLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, AN EASTERLY MOISTURE PUSH IS STILL SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
CONSIDERABLE RISES IN DEWPOINTS. THIS WILL CAUSE MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS (AND POTENTIALLY THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN)
TO DESTABILIZE WITH SUFFICIENT JUICE FOR STORMS. THIS WILL
SUFFICIENTLY INITIATE STORMS, SOME OF WHICH WILL TURN STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN NM. PER USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARAMETERIZATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST
MODELS WITH THE BULLISH NAM CARRYING THE MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER WEST
THAN THE MORE BEARISH GFS. SCATTERED STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH THE MOISTURE POTENTIALLY
SLOSHING A BIT FARTHER EAST, IN PART DUE TO A CENTRAL ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE WHICH MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE FORCING AND INITIATION. THE
MOISTURE WOULD ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON OVER THE EASTERN ZONES INTO FRIDAY
AS WELL, BUT MAY BE THINNING AND MIXING OUT SOME AS TEMPERATURES
START TO WARM BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. UPPER LEVEL FEATURES BECOME
LESS PROMINENT AND POORLY DEFINED INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MAKING THE FATE
OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST A BIT AMBIGUOUS. BLENDED GUIDANCE GRADUALLY
REDUCES DEWPOINTS DAY-BY-DAY, REDUCING STORM CHANCES WHILE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER, LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL DECOUPLE, BUT BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, LIKELY IMPACTING BOTH
KGUP AND KSAF FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL AS OTHER LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE MONDAY MORNING
AREAWIDE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50KT WILL BE COMMON.
ELSEWHERE, GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL BE MORE LIKELY. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A FIRE WEATHER GROWING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME CONDITIONS TODAY AND MONDAY.
TODAY'S CRITICAL TO EXTREME EVENT, COURTESY OF AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS IS SENDING INCREASED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NM WHILE ANOTHER DEEP LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE. CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREME
(PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL ZONES) FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID EVENING. WINDS WILL BE
EXTREMELY CHALLENGING TO PINPOINT DURING THE LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS, AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE STRUGGLING TO DECOUPLE
WHILE WINDS ALOFT KEEP ON STRENGTHENING. MANY LOCATIONS MAY REDUCE
BELOW CRITICAL WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS BY MID EVENING, BUT WILL STILL
BE GUSTY WITH VERY POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT, THIS WILL POSE CONCERNS FOR A CONTINUED OVERNIGHT THREAT FOR
FIRE SPREAD WITH ONGOING FIRES.
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE, THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL
START MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY, QUICKLY ESCALATING THE
THREAT FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE STRONGEST WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD, AND MORE SPECIFICALLY THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS
WILL REACH 55 TO 60 MPH. MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS LOOK TO PLUMMET
TO LESS THAN 10% RH MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL
A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE FIRE WX WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR MONDAY.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL OFFER COOLER TEMPERATURES TO EASTERN NM
GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH SHIFTING WIND DIRECTION, INCREASED
DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE WITH SPEEDS REDUCING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY IN WESTERN ZONES
TUESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES AND SOUTHEASTERLIES CONVERGING OVER
CENTRAL NM WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ENHANCED. SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO
35 MPH WILL INTRODUCE MARGINAL TO SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY, NAMELY IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS.
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO EASTERN
ZONES WHERE LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAKE A RETURN WITH A DRYLINE
POTENTIALLY SETTING UP EACH AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES IN EASTERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED
WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING EACH SUBSEQUENT
DAY. WESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES WILL TEND TO STAY DRY ONLY HIGH-BASED
CUMULUS AND VIRGA. FORTUNATELY, MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO MUCH LOWER PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 50 68 38 73 / 5 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 63 29 71 / 0 50 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 67 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 42 67 33 73 / 0 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 42 71 36 76 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 72 39 75 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 45 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 42 74 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 57 29 65 / 0 50 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 68 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 44 72 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 63 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 35 57 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 43 67 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 44 69 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 76 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 82 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 50 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 48 82 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 52 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 83 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 54 78 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 75 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 78 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 74 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 49 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 42 72 30 63 / 0 0 5 0
RATON........................... 42 74 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 45 77 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 72 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 82 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 51 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 87 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 84 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 90 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 89 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 91 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 88 47 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 92 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 83 50 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104>106-109-
121-123>126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ104-106-109-
121>126.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ212-214-215-223-227>229.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 AM MDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34
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