329
FXUS65 KABQ 111126 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO
SUPPORT A MONSOON BURST PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK. A LARGE CLUSTER
OF HEAVY STORMS CURRENTLY PROPAGATING NORTHWEST THRU SONORA WILL
ALSO BECOME A PLAYER THIS WEEK. 00Z RAOBS SHOWED THE H5 RIDGE
STILL CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST NM WITH HEIGHTS HOLDING STEADY NEAR
596DM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S OVER A LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. 06Z SATELLITE
BLENDED PWATS ARE HOLDING STEADY NEAR 0.85" OVER MUCH OF NM AS
WELL. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY WEST INTO NEARBY VALLEYS THRU
SUNSET. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE VIGOROUS
THAN MONDAY AS 00Z CAMS SHOW GREATER CAPE WITH LIFTED INDICES
BELOW -3C AND MORE DEFORMATION FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT
DIVIDE. A 30KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING WEST OVER SOUTHERN NM
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE H5 HIGH WILL ALSO HELP TO SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS THRU TONIGHT OVER WESTERN NM. HREF AND
REFS LPMM QPF ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE NAM12 AND HRRR QPF SHOW
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN TRAVELING FROM CATRON COUNTY NORTH AND WEST
INTO THE GALLUP AND ZUNI AREAS TONIGHT. STRONG STORM CELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING >0.75" OF RAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT HEATWAVE
AND DRY STRETCH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY BE LIMITED TO A
FEW LOCALES THAT PICK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE H5 HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST AS A MORE WELL-
DEFINED H5 TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A 40KT SPEED MAX EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM
AN AREA OF ENHANCED TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NM AS 700-500MB LAYER
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. PWATS ARE SHOWN RISING ABOVE 1" OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ALIGNED
WITH NORTH-SOUTH TERRAIN SO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE FURTHER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A REMNANT MCV LINGERING
SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN AZ FROM THE CONVECTION TONIGHT, WHICH MAY
BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM ON WEDNESDAY. 00Z NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF SHOWS A BROAD SWATH OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1
AND 1.5" ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. REFS 24-HR
LPMM QPF ALSO SHOWS SEVERAL POCKETS >1.25". A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON
WHAT HAPPENS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE VERY ACTIVE DAYS AS THE SPEED MAX
APPROACHING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC HELPS TO LIFT THE REMNANT
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION FROM SONORA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM.
PWATS ARE SHOWN PEAKING NEAR 1.2" OVER THE REGION. AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SURGES, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IF
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT. NBM 48-HOUR MEAN QPF SHOWS A
LARGE AREA BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75" WHICH IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.
NBM 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.75" IN A FEW AREAS SO THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
QPF VALUES MAY RISE CONSIDERABLY ONCE HI-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS GET
A HANDLE ON THE SCENARIO. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL MODERATE
AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE ACTIVE DAYS AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS SQUARELY OVER NM WITH THE HIGH EAST OF THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SHRA/TS WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BETWEEN 1PM AND 3PM
THEN DRIFT ERRATICALLY WESTWARD INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS
THRU SUNSET. DIRECT HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN
HEAVY RAIN, STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS >35KT, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH MID LEVEL CIGS WILL PERSIST
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IMPROVING OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH ONLY
SMALL POCKETS OF MINIMUM HUMIDITY BELOW 15%. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS >0.50" FROM
THE STRONGER CELLS. NEW WILDFIRES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN DRY FUELS. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LIKELY
TO TREND EVEN GREATER WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
>1" POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. A MONSOON BURST
PATTERN MAY IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A RICH PLUME OF
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO. GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS >1" ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL HELP
TO MOISTEN FUELS AND LIMIT NEW FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING. THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO INCREASE ON AREA BURN SCARS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 98 66 92 64 / 0 30 10 50
DULCE........................... 95 56 89 54 / 30 30 40 50
CUBA............................ 92 59 88 58 / 20 50 30 50
GALLUP.......................... 90 59 86 58 / 30 50 40 50
EL MORRO........................ 85 56 81 56 / 60 50 60 50
GRANTS.......................... 90 59 88 58 / 40 50 50 40
QUEMADO......................... 87 58 82 58 / 60 40 70 40
MAGDALENA....................... 90 63 87 62 / 30 50 40 20
DATIL........................... 85 57 81 57 / 50 30 60 30
RESERVE......................... 92 58 86 57 / 70 30 70 40
GLENWOOD........................ 96 63 91 61 / 60 20 50 40
CHAMA........................... 87 54 81 52 / 40 30 60 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 90 63 86 62 / 30 20 40 40
PECOS........................... 91 57 89 57 / 40 20 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 56 85 55 / 30 20 50 30
RED RIVER....................... 83 49 79 47 / 50 20 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 42 81 42 / 60 20 60 20
TAOS............................ 92 59 87 57 / 30 20 40 30
MORA............................ 89 54 86 54 / 60 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 98 65 93 63 / 20 20 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 91 61 89 60 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 94 61 91 60 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 67 93 66 / 10 30 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 70 95 68 / 10 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 68 97 67 / 10 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 68 95 67 / 20 30 20 20
BELEN........................... 99 67 97 66 / 0 30 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 100 67 96 66 / 10 30 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 30 10 20
CORRALES........................ 100 67 96 66 / 10 30 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 65 96 64 / 5 30 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 94 66 92 65 / 10 30 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 68 95 67 / 20 30 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 102 71 98 69 / 5 40 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 61 86 60 / 20 40 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 93 62 90 62 / 20 30 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 95 61 90 60 / 20 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 56 92 56 / 20 30 20 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 91 59 88 59 / 30 20 20 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 94 61 90 60 / 10 30 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 60 89 60 / 10 30 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 68 93 67 / 5 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 87 62 86 60 / 20 5 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 89 59 88 57 / 30 20 20 10
RATON........................... 93 57 92 56 / 40 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 57 95 57 / 30 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 57 90 57 / 30 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 97 66 98 65 / 0 10 5 5
ROY............................. 92 62 94 62 / 5 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 100 68 101 69 / 0 5 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 66 97 67 / 0 10 5 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 69 102 70 / 0 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 99 67 99 70 / 0 0 0 10
PORTALES........................ 100 68 101 70 / 0 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 100 69 100 70 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 102 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 97 67 96 67 / 5 0 20 10
ELK............................. 94 63 91 62 / 10 0 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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