422
FXUS65 KABQ 191120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 412 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A FEW BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA. THE BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
- CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN WITH A COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
THE NEXT IN WHAT SEEMS LIKE A NEVER ENDING SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTS IS CURRENTLY PRESSING INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, AND WILL WEAKLY PRESS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BRINGING AN EAST (SOUTHEAST) CANYON WINDS
TO ALBUQUERQUE (SANTA FE) BY SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM. THUS, BETWEEN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE THE FRONT
WEAKLY PUSHING IN, BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NM. A SECONDARY PEAK IN CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS BOTH THIS MORNING
AND THIS EVENING WILL BE RATHER LIGHT OVERALL WITH MAX GUSTS NEAR
20-25 MPH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT LOW TEMPS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON. HOWEVER, BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO
WILL INCREASE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM.
GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE BACK INTO THE 50S
AND LOW 60S, JUST COOLER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE
YESTERDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING REGARDING
THE TIMING OF COLD FRONTS IN THE EXTENDED, WITH ONE MASSIVE CHANGE
WHICH WE'LL TALK ABOUT BELOW. BUT FIRST, ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS NOW
AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY ACROSS NE NM AS THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT QUICKLY, AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, AT
UPPER LEVELS, THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN, WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND A LARGE, DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL FINALLY TURN WESTERLY BY
THURSDAY. THUS, BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE QUITE NICE
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EVEN WITH WEDNESDAY'S FRONT) AND HIGHS
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE.
THE BIG CHANGES COME LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
IS POISED TO INVADE THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE 1050-1052MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS
WHICH WILL PUSH THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH EASTERN
NM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING
ACROSS NE NM BEFORE IT QUICKLY PRESSES THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THUS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY HAVE BEEN MASSIVELY REDUCED
ACROSS EASTERN NM AND IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT STRONG OF A
SURFACE HIGH, IT'S VERY LIKELY THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REDUCED FURTHER WITH HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 20S. IT
APPEARS THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS AT LEAST
EASTERN NM ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN, CURRENT FORECAST TEMPERATURES
MAY BE REDUCED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
MEANWHILE, AT UPPER LEVELS, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION
OF A PACIFIC LOW. GENERALLY SPEAKING, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
HOW FAST THE LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD, WHETHER IT WILL OPEN INTO A
WAVE, AND WHETHER IT WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
SLIDING DOWN FROM THE PACNW. WHAT WE DO KNOW, IS THAT ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS ARE FAVORING A FASTER PROGRESSION EASTWARD WHICH WOULD
BRING MOISTURE AND LIFT TO PORTIONS OF NM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY PRESENT A PROBLEM ACROSS EASTERN NM IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WARM, MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO BE GREATEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AND THE
WARM NOSE ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IS CURRENTLY AROUND 1-2 DEGC
AROUND THE CLOVIS TO ROSWELL AREA. THUS, THERE MAY BE A 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIOD WHERE THIS AREA COULD SEE SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE COLD AIR IS DEEP ENOUGH AND IT ALL CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. OF COURSE, A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO FALL INTO PLACE JUST
RIGHT FOR MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES TO HAPPEN (FRONTAL
TIMING, TIMING OF UPPER LOW, ETC), BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE THAT IT COULD ALL COME TOGETHER FOR A WINTRY MIX FOR
SOUTHEAST NM. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NM, SNOW WOULD BE THE
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS,
RAIN AND SNOW WOULD PREVAIL. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IF THE TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA BUT
THE CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
IFR CIGS ARE QUICKLY EXPANDING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPACT MOST AREAS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX
BORDER AND SOUTHWARD TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING. THESE
LOW CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD TODAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS NOW DRAPED FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO KCQC TO K4MR AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20KT
HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING, BRINGING A WEAK GAP WIND TO
KSAF AND KABQ AROUND SUNRISE. THE GAP WIND WILL WEAKEN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR
VENTILATION RATES, THOUGH THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF SHORT DURATION
FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE
ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH PERIODIC FRONTAL INTRUSIONS, THE STRONGEST
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS
WESTERN NM WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON. CHANCES ARE INCREASING
FOR PRECIPITATION TO IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. WHILE RAIN AND SNOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM, THERE IS CONCERN FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 21 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 14 48 11 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 18 47 17 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 13 50 12 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 51 21 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 15 53 14 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 53 20 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 52 25 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 53 23 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 21 60 19 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 43 14 43 14 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 23 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 18 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 19 45 19 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 34 14 38 15 / 5 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 5 43 8 / 5 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 45 11 48 12 / 5 0 0 0
MORA............................ 37 16 52 20 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 50 16 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 22 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 19 48 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 27 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 21 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 53 18 52 18 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 53 24 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 19 52 18 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 23 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 53 20 52 19 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 26 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 52 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 24 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 22 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 24 46 25 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 12 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 34 17 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 19 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 19 50 21 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 24 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 22 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 14 52 15 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 34 11 53 14 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 35 10 56 14 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 15 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 34 21 57 21 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 14 53 18 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 39 16 61 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 17 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 16 59 20 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 18 53 23 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 15 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 40 14 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 19 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 20 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 18 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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