302
FXUS65 KABQ 121124
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AND
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BEING COMMON. HIGHER GUSTS TO
40 MPH WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WANING ACROSS EASTERN NM, AND A
NOTABLE DRY SLOT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR, APPROACHING THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPSTREAM, A NEW LOW HAS TAKEN SHAPE
OVER WA/OR WITH ADDITIONAL PRESSURE FALLS CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA AND THE NEARBY EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG INTO NM TODAY WITH
ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLONE ESTABLISHING OVER EASTERN CO. THE
700 MB WINDS ARE MODELED TO RANGE BETWEEN 20 TO 35 KT OVER NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SERVE AS A GOOD SURFACE GUST PROXY,
ALTHOUGH NORTHEASTERN AREAS COULD EXCEED THIS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY
TO THE SURFACE LOW. THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AND INCOMING DRY SLOT WILL
SEND PWATS TUMBLING TO 0.5 TO 0.6 INCH IN MANY ZONES, HOWEVER THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL RETAIN VALUES OF AN INCH OR MORE.
THE LACK OF MOISTURE, AND MUCH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT
SHOWERS AND STORMS, EVEN IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. ANY LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPSTREAM TROUGH LOOKS
TO BE RATHER WEAK, ONLY ACCOUNTING FOR SCANT SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES IN MOST WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TODAY
WHILE THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS HOLD NEAR PERSISTENCE. BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WILL DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET FOR MOST MID TO
LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT A FEW PEAKS AND RIDGES WILL RETAIN GUSTS
INTO TONIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY, THE LOW OVER WA/OR WILL MOVE INTO UT WITH DOUBLE VORT
LOBES BEING MODELED AS WELL AS A STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY JET PRECEDING
IT (EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS). THIS WILL STEER MORE OF THE
BROADENING DRY SLOT INTO NM WHILE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT STRENGTHEN A
BIT MORE (700 MB SPEEDS RISING TO 25 TO 45 KT IN MANY ZONES),
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL REGENERATE, BUT IT WILL SAG CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF NM IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS ALOFT AND REDUCTION IN
SURFACE GRADIENT ESSENTIALLY LOOK TO OFFSET EACH OTHER WITH ANOTHER
FAIRLY SIMILAR WIND FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH BEING COMMON. THE UPPER LOW IN UT WILL GENERATE ENOUGH
INCREASED UPWARD FORCING FOR MORE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWESTERN NM ON
TUESDAY, BUT IT APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER.
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL DECLINE A COUPLE DECAMETERS, LEADING TO MORE
COOLING. THIS WILL PUT WESTERN ZONES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
CENTRAL ZONES NEAR AVERAGE, AND EASTERN PLAINS ZONES AT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CO
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER THE ECMWF/EPS SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL MORE SLUGGISH AS A RESULT OF ITS WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE POLAR
JET IN CANADA. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WOULD GRAZE OVER THE NM-CO
BORDER WEDNESDAY, BUT A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE LOW, AS THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS, WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO DRAW MORE MOISTURE FROM WEST TX
BACK INTO FAR EASTERN NM, PERHAPS WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STORMS. THIS SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST
HAS LEFT THINGS DRY IN FAR EASTERN NM FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
NOW. THE FIRST SEASONAL FREEZE WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR SOME NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES
THE CO LOW LOOKS TO FILL IN AND PARTIALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
TO THE NORTH OVER ONTARIO INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER LOW WILL SEPARATE FROM THE CO
CYCLONE. THIS LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WOULD QUICKLY CUT ITSELF OFF
FROM THE POLAR JET, BUT THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC EVOLUTION WITH A DEEPER OVERALL LOW THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY THAT WOULD DRAG MUCH MORE MOISTURE INTO NM FROM THE
EAST. THERE IS CONSENSUS ON THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FROM THE
EAST/NORTHEAST, BUT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT QPF REMAIN THE MAIN
POINT OF DEBATE, MAINLY FROM THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS, AS THE
EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MEDIAN ARE MUCH MORE SUBDUED WITH RESPECT TO
PWATS AND QPF. COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
BUILT INTO THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND LOW 10-20% POPS ARE ALSO
IN MOST PERIODS. THE WINDS ENTERING BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AND IMPACTFUL, BUT ITS A BIT
TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN THE SPEEDS WITH MUCH CERTAINTY. FOR NOW,
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE FAVORED GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND (NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ESTANCIA VALLEY TO NAME A COUPLE
OF AREAS) MORE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS ARE FOUND IN THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND VERY
LOCALIZED GROUND FOG (AT K0E0). ANY MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND LOCALIZED THROUGH
12/1500UTC (8 AM MDT) WITH VFR BEING THE RULE OTHERWISE. WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING,
BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON
SUNDAY. STILL, GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMMON WITH
NORTHEASTERN AREAS (KLVS, KRTN, AND KCAO) OBSERVING A FEW GUSTS
CLOSER TO 40 KT. ANY SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE VERY MINIMAL, STAYING
MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND ANY
LIGHTNING IS MODELED TO LARGELY STAY NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR
CORNERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AROUND
SUNSET THIS EVENING, BUT A FEW RIDGES AND MOUNTAIN PEAKS MAY
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE UPSTREAM WILL KEEP BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM TODAY AND
TUESDAY. PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS SHOULD TEND TO STAY IN A 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS OF 40 MPH IN NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
FORTUNATELY, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT WILL HOLD
THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY, PREVENTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE FEWER IN NUMBER
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CO INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPLITTING WITH A CUT-
OFF SEGMENT WANDERING SLOWLY TO THE WEST OF NM INTO THE LATE PART OF
THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. AFTER ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE NM-CO
BORDER WEDNESDAY, COOLER AIR LOOKS TO SPILL IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COOLER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS, BUT HUMIDITY IS PROJECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 51 62 46 / 20 30 50 40
DULCE........................... 64 42 59 39 / 40 30 60 60
CUBA............................ 67 44 61 41 / 10 5 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 66 43 61 38 / 5 20 40 30
EL MORRO........................ 65 41 62 37 / 0 5 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 70 44 65 41 / 0 0 5 10
QUEMADO......................... 66 44 64 40 / 0 0 0 10
MAGDALENA....................... 72 49 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 66 43 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 45 64 41 / 20 10 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 71 49 68 45 / 30 10 20 5
CHAMA........................... 60 41 55 38 / 40 40 60 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 68 49 64 46 / 10 0 5 0
PECOS........................... 69 45 67 42 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 44 61 42 / 20 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 56 37 53 35 / 20 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 33 59 30 / 20 5 5 5
TAOS............................ 68 44 64 42 / 20 5 5 5
MORA............................ 69 41 67 39 / 10 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 74 49 69 46 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 69 48 66 44 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 47 69 44 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 54 73 50 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 54 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 79 53 75 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 53 73 49 / 5 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 79 51 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 78 52 75 50 / 5 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 79 50 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 79 53 74 50 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 50 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 75 53 72 50 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 78 53 73 51 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 53 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 48 67 46 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 50 69 47 / 5 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 48 70 47 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 75 44 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 49 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 48 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 49 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 76 56 74 52 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 71 50 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 73 49 71 44 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 77 44 74 42 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 78 46 76 41 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 71 47 69 43 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 82 58 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 77 53 75 49 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 86 58 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 56 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 60 86 57 / 0 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 87 61 86 59 / 5 30 5 10
PORTALES........................ 88 62 87 59 / 5 20 5 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 60 85 56 / 0 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 90 62 90 60 / 0 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 85 56 84 53 / 0 5 0 0
ELK............................. 82 54 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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