976
FXUS65 KABQ 211939
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
139 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ALSO EXISTS LATE
FRIDAY ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
- AFTER A QUIETER WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM
WHERE SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH ALOFT
HANGING BACK OVER AZ WHILE AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND STEERS DRIER WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM. THIS ACTION IS INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY AND A STORM HAS
ALREADY GONE SEVERE SEVERAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAXWELL. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO THE TX/OK BORDERS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS UNION CO WHERE MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
2,500J/KG, LIS OF -6C AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED FOR UNION AND COLFAX
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW A FAIRLY NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR MOVE EAST INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY
MORNING AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM, PULLING UP STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE
FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS THEN MOVING EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM OVER THE SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THE SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK,
WHICH WILL PRIMARILY BE A HAIL THREAT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FRONT, DRY AND WARM CONDITION WILL PREVAIL WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE BACKING WEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, CREATING A GUSTY
EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RGV BETWEEN SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE
AND LOS LUNAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
A 585DAM 500MB HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY MOISTURE RICH LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY, FUELING ANOTHER
ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION. LOWER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES EXIST SATURDAY, EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM
WHERE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER HIGH, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL RAMP UP MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING FROM
OVER SOCAL. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN DEPICTING A WET SCENARIO ON MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN NM DUE TO FORCING FROM THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MUCH-NEEDED
RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY FOR PARCHED WESTERN AREAS. THE PACIFIC LOW
IS MODELED TO FILL, OPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM ON
TUESDAY, BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN'T
BE RULED-OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A DIVE ON TUESDAY AND BE
BELOW AVERAGE AREAWIDE. DRIER WESTERLIES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING PACIFIC LOW ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
NORTHERN NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES,
WITH SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISO/SCT STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE TX BORDER OVERNIGHT,
BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF KROW. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE, FAVORING
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS.
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN
NM, WHERE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
A PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING
STORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA MON/TUE, ALTHOUGH EASTERN NM IS FAVORED
FOR SOAKING RAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 43 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 35 76 39 78 / 0 0 5 5
CUBA............................ 41 76 43 77 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 36 78 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 75 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 39 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 42 77 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 49 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 44 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 39 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 42 84 43 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 35 70 37 72 / 0 5 5 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 76 52 74 / 0 0 5 30
PECOS........................... 41 75 44 75 / 0 5 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 71 42 72 / 0 10 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 33 61 36 62 / 0 10 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 67 32 67 / 0 20 40 20
TAOS............................ 38 76 42 76 / 0 5 10 10
MORA............................ 40 71 42 71 / 0 30 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 45 82 50 80 / 0 0 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 46 77 49 75 / 0 0 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 80 48 79 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 84 54 83 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 48 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 50 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 49 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 47 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 51 81 55 81 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 84 55 83 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 48 79 51 79 / 0 0 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 80 48 79 / 0 0 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 81 41 80 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 76 46 74 / 0 5 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 52 73 50 73 / 0 5 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 40 65 40 69 / 10 40 60 60
RATON........................... 40 70 42 73 / 0 40 60 40
SPRINGER........................ 40 73 43 75 / 5 40 50 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 73 43 72 / 0 40 30 40
CLAYTON......................... 47 69 46 73 / 20 10 40 50
ROY............................. 45 71 45 72 / 20 20 40 20
CONCHAS......................... 49 77 50 81 / 10 20 40 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 48 79 49 80 / 5 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 78 51 82 / 20 20 50 10
CLOVIS.......................... 51 81 51 81 / 20 20 20 20
PORTALES........................ 51 82 51 83 / 20 10 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 85 51 83 / 10 10 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 54 91 55 88 / 10 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 52 84 51 81 / 0 5 0 20
ELK............................. 50 81 49 79 / 0 10 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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