036
FXUS65 KABQ 290703
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A DISTURBANCE BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
A DISTURBANCE EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF
UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS SHOULD SETTLE AROUND SUNRISE AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER EAST. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FAR EASTERN NM IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN SOME NORTH WIND GUSTS
PEAKING AT AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH ACROSS UNION COUNTY MIDDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE,
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JANUARY, EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE ROSWELL AND ARTESIA AREA DUE TO THE
LINGERING SNOWPACK. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN ROSWELL AND
ARTESIA, DUE TO THE THE CONTINUED SNOWMELT, LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
FRIDAY CLOSING OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, IT WILL SEND A FRONT BACKING INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO. THE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE BURNING OFF MIDDAY. DUE TO THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BE COLDER BY AROUND 15 TO
20 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS, BUT ONLY BY AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH BY THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO
TURN AROUND QUICKER AND HAVE MORE OF DOWNSLOPE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. MILDER BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE
EASTWARD MOVING UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THE
WARMUP CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES MOVING EAST
WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS TOPPING OUT IN MID 50S TO AROUND 60, EXPECT
LOW 50S IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM ROSWELL TO CARLSBAD.
THE UPPER HIGH/RIDGE FLATTENS AND SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON MONDAY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN MILDER ON MONDAY DUE TO
THE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MOST. COME MID NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GETS QUITE
COMPLICATED WITH A REX BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC COAST (UPPER HIGH OVER
THE PACIFIC NW AND AN UPPER LOW OVER BAJA CA) AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RD OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THIS WILL
PLACE NEW MEXICO UNDER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLE CLUSTER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW DIVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ABOUT HALF OF THE CLUSTERS DEPICT SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAVORING
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SURROUNDING LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS TIME WHILE THE OTHER HALF SHOW SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
FAVORING NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
AND BELOW AVERAGE BY 8 TO 12 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NM COME
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 928 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THAT SAID, VERY LOW PROBABILITIES EXIST FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FREEZING FOG AT KROW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND RESULT IN AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY THURSDAY MORNING,
IMPACTING BOTH KTCC AND KROW. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
A WIND SHIFT AT KTCC LATER THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
20-30KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. BRISK NORTH WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A BACKDOOR
FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL WARMUP BEGINS SATURDAY PEAKING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. SOME BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS ON MONDAY. COOLING DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY AND
ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH.
THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. GOOD
VENTILATION ACROSS THE SAN AUGUSTIN PLAINS FRIDAY. GENERALLY POOR
VENTILATION AREAWIDE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SOME GOOD
VENTILATION RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 46 20 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 45 13 48 15 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 43 16 46 19 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 48 13 50 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 20 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 14 50 16 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 48 19 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 28 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 48 23 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 58 20 58 21 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 24 64 24 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 40 14 43 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 24 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 48 18 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 16 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 32 12 34 13 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 -1 40 4 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 43 14 45 16 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 47 17 48 17 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 49 18 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 44 21 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 19 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 49 28 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 51 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 26 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 54 21 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 51 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 20 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 53 24 53 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 20 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 46 27 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 27 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 27 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 24 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 26 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 45 22 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 46 13 47 12 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 18 44 18 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 46 22 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 21 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 48 26 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 24 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 42 15 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 47 13 47 14 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 13 49 13 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 17 47 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 22 50 17 / 0 0 0 10
ROY............................. 50 18 49 16 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 57 19 55 18 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 21 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 19 54 17 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 54 24 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 20 53 17 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 19 51 17 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 48 21 48 21 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 53 24 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 55 22 54 21 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...11
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