243
FXUS65 KABQ 240818
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
118 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 116 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
- LOW VISIBILITY FROM FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND NEARBY AREAS WITHIN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM
THROUGH THE MORNING.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AFTER THANKSGIVING, INCLUDING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK, WILL WANT TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER
TRAVEL ROUTES OR PLANS, AS THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
PRECIPITATION FROM YESTERDAY'S UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED
WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT ECHOES OVER NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL NM
STILL OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR. OF MORE CONSEQUENCE WILL
LIKELY BE THE LOWER LAYER MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND WHICH HAS LED TO LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
DAWN. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FOG IS TOO LOW FOR AN ISSUANCE OF A
PREEMPTIVE FREEZING FOG OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BUT THIS LAST-
MINUTE DECISION IS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH DAWN. THE UPPER LOW WILL
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS THROUGH THE DAY, AND WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. THE WINDS AT 700 MB WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10
AND 30 KT WITH SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM ALOFT MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON, NAMELY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NEARBY
PLAINS. ANY FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES TODAY. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO, OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE, NORMAL TODAY.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD INTO TUESDAY, AND THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF
INTEREST WILL BE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NORTHERN ZONES
WHILE ITS PARENT UPPER LOW PROGRESSIVELY CROSSES THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. WHILE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SPAWN SOME FLURRIES AND
SPRINKLES IN CO, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN IN NM WITH SHIFTING
WINDS AND MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION BEING THE ONLY CONCERNS WITH THE
FRONT. EVEN WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING, DAYTIME HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVERTAKING MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN NM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK EAST WIND EVEN SEEPING
INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS WILL SET TEMPERATURES JUST A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FAR EAST WHILE MOST
REMAINING ZONES STAY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL, AND BY THE LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES WILL ALREADY BE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE PLAINS.
A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER NM ON THANKSGIVING, OFFERING
WARMER THAN NORMAL AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE DIRTY RIDGE
WILL USHER IN A CANOPY OF HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS ON THURSDAY, AND
THESE CLOUD BASES WILL STEADILY LOWER INTO FRIDAY WHILE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FEEDS INTO NM. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING COMPARABLE TO THURSDAY'S (GENERALLY 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL).
BY THIS TIME, STRONG ATTENTION WILL BE PLACED UPSTREAM TOWARD THE
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN STATES WHERE THE NEXT UPPER
TROUGH IS MODELED TO BE. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH CONCERNS FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ON RETURN ROUTES. THERE
HAS BEEN AND STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF NOISE AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS, BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS FOR A DEEP LOW TO DIVE SOUTH IN
THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CA, AZ, AND THE BAJA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
(DEC 1), BUT THE ECMWF HAS INTRODUCED A PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT COULD OFFER A BRIEF BOUT OF LIGHT PRECIP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
IF IT SHOULD CROSS NORTHEAST NM AS ADVERTISED. COLDER AIR WOULD
ACCOMPANY, BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT DEGREE;
CURRENTLY THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERABLY COLDER (500 MB
HEIGHTS DROPPING TO NEAR 546 DECAMETERS LATE MONDAY THE 1ST) WITH
ENSEMBLE MEANS OF COURSE SMOOTHING OUT AND NARROWING THE
DIFFERENCES WITHIN EACH MODEL FAMILY. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
ALSO SHOW SIGNS OF THE LOW POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF, BUT A TRACK
THIS FAR SOUTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS
AND AN ABSENCE OF ROBUST CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC WATERS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE THE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (SSW) EVENT THAT IS PROJECTED (AT 50
MB AND 10 MB FROM GFS) THAT COULD UNLEASH COLD AIR DOWN TO MID
LATITUDES, SOMETHING THAT CPC'S 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HAS LATCHED ONTO.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT, AROUND
09-10Z, AT KFMN AND KGUP, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER CLOUDS GRADUALLY THINNING/CLEARING NORTH OF
KFMN. ONCE THIS CLEARING MOVES IN, LIGHT WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG/MIST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH DENSITY OF FOG, AS WELL AS PREFERRED LOCATIONS
AND WHETHER STRATUS WILL LOWER ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE;
OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE WOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER. ELSEWHERE, VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT-MODERATE BREEZES AS THE WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, OVER CO.
KSAF COULD SEE A BRIEF MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW-
MODERATE. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPING
LLWS OVER KLVS TONIGHT, ONCE SURFACE WINDS SLACKEN TO BELOW 10
KNOTS, SO HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAF. LESS CONFIDENT ON ANY
DURATION OF LLWS AT KTCC AND KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 116 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
PRECIPITATION IS WANING, BUT HIGH HUMIDITY WILL START OUT THE DAY
WITH LOTS OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AND SOME NORTHERN AREAS OF NM TODAY. AFTER
HUMIDITY FALLS TO 30 TO 60% THIS AFTERNOON, EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY WILL ENSUE TONIGHT, AND MOST NIGHTS THEREAFTER FOR THAT
MATTER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY
WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN (ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES THEN EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER IS SEEMING MORE LIKELY. POOR
SMOKE VENTILATION AND INEFFICIENT MIXING AND DISPERSION WILL
PLAGUE MANY PRESCRIBED BURNING EFFORTS THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL OBSERVE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WOULD OFFER A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 29 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 21 49 15 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 23 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 52 20 52 17 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 49 25 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 22 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 51 25 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 51 27 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 23 62 24 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 64 26 68 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 17 45 14 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 48 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 28 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 23 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 17 39 15 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 12 46 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 49 21 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 25 52 19 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 24 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 26 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 36 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 33 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 59 26 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 59 25 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 59 31 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 59 26 59 25 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 53 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 31 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 33 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 31 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 28 53 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 25 54 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 28 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 28 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 28 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 33 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 34 55 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 26 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 56 23 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 58 22 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 26 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 33 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 28 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 64 28 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 32 56 26 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 34 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 33 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 65 34 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 68 36 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 37 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 64 31 66 26 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...53
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