060
FXUS65 KABQ 081059 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
459 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 456 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN UTAH, NEVADA, AND COLORADO MAY CONTINUE
TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DERIVED-MOTION WINDS SHOWS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER FOCUSED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE H5
HIGH WAS ANALYZED AT 600DM WITH SEVERAL SURROUNDING RAOBS AT 599DM!
GUIDANCE INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN STORM COVERAGE TODAY
AS A MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS WEST OVER THE REGION. MODEL QPF
SHOWS VERY FEW QPF FOOTPRINTS >0.25" WHICH ARE MAINLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY HOT WITH
ANOTHER CROP OF HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM.
AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE H5 HIGH WEAKENS
TO NEAR 595DM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PWATS BEGIN TO TREND SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OVER THE REGION BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS NO REAL DISCERNIBLE
DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. MODEL QPF FOOTPRINTS INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH A FEW MORE >0.50" IN THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NM. TEMPS REMAIN VERY HOT AREAWIDE WITH
MORE HEAT ADVISORIES IN STORE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THERE ISN'T MUCH CHANGE MONDAY WITH THE 595DM H5 HIGH CENTER STILL
OVER NORTHERN NM. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM WHERE PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY. QPF FOOTPRINTS
>0.50" ARE STILL SHOWN OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
CHANGES MAY BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE H5 HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. THIS PATTERN ALLOWS FOR A MOIST FETCH OF
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHWEST MX. THE UPPER HIGH
MAY REMAIN CENTERED TO THE EAST OF NM WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WHILE
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE SLIDES NORTH INTO AZ AND NM. PWATS ARE
SHOWN RISING TO NEAR 1.2" AT KABQ WITH H5 HEIGHTS DECREASING TO NEAR
590DM BY THURSDAY. MODEL QPF REMAINS BULLISH MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MODERATE GIVEN THE STUBBORN PATTERN IN
PLACE THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ISOLATED SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN FROM 1PM TO 3PM THEN DRIFT SOUTHWEST INTO NEARBY LOWLANDS
THRU SUNSET. BRIEF RAIN AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. TEMPS WILL BE VERY HOT AGAIN TODAY SO DENSITY
ALTITUDE CONCERNS STILL EXIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THERE ARE NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY HOT WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 15% EACH DAY THRU MONDAY OVER PARTS
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
FOR NEW WILDFIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING IN DRY FUELS. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TREND HIGHER BEYOND MONDAY WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 101 65 100 66 / 5 5 0 10
DULCE........................... 98 56 98 56 / 5 5 10 10
CUBA............................ 95 61 95 61 / 10 10 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 95 60 95 60 / 10 10 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 90 57 90 57 / 20 10 40 30
GRANTS.......................... 95 60 95 60 / 10 10 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 92 61 91 59 / 20 10 30 50
MAGDALENA....................... 91 65 92 64 / 5 5 20 20
DATIL........................... 88 59 88 58 / 10 10 50 20
RESERVE......................... 96 59 95 58 / 20 10 40 30
GLENWOOD........................ 99 64 99 63 / 30 20 30 30
CHAMA........................... 91 55 91 55 / 10 10 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 92 65 92 65 / 20 10 30 20
PECOS........................... 91 59 93 59 / 10 10 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 91 57 91 57 / 10 10 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 85 49 86 50 / 10 10 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 85 43 86 43 / 20 20 40 20
TAOS............................ 95 58 95 59 / 10 10 10 20
MORA............................ 89 55 90 55 / 20 20 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 99 65 100 65 / 10 10 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 93 62 94 62 / 10 10 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 95 62 96 61 / 10 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 100 70 101 69 / 10 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 71 100 70 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 102 69 102 69 / 5 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 100 70 101 69 / 5 5 5 10
BELEN........................... 100 67 101 68 / 5 5 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 101 69 102 68 / 5 5 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 66 101 66 / 5 10 5 10
CORRALES........................ 102 69 103 69 / 5 5 5 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 100 66 100 65 / 5 10 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 97 68 98 68 / 5 10 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 101 70 101 70 / 5 5 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 102 71 102 71 / 5 5 5 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 93 64 94 64 / 10 10 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 97 65 97 64 / 10 10 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 97 62 98 62 / 10 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 58 97 57 / 10 10 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 91 62 93 61 / 10 10 20 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 95 63 95 62 / 5 10 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 61 92 61 / 5 5 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 66 94 67 / 5 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 86 59 88 61 / 20 10 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 90 60 92 60 / 10 10 30 20
RATON........................... 93 56 95 57 / 20 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 97 56 98 57 / 20 10 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 92 58 94 58 / 10 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 98 69 99 68 / 5 5 20 20
ROY............................. 93 64 96 64 / 5 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 101 69 103 69 / 5 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 95 67 97 67 / 5 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 70 102 70 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 98 68 99 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 98 68 99 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 69 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 99 70 100 70 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 95 65 96 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 92 61 94 62 / 10 0 10 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ201-217-219-221.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page