288
FXUS65 KABQ 061127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
- AFTER A QUIET AND WARMER WEDNESDAY, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO CROSS NM LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODEST MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL SLOWLY INCH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH, BUT MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH THE SYSTEM. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT, THEN FINALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM TUESDAY.
THE STRONGEST ASCENT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SO EXPECT THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. HOWEVER, OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE A PLAYER
ON TUESDAY WHICH IS WHEN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OTHER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE AT BETTER
PRECIPITATION TOTALS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
(<2") ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN
CHANGE THIS MORNING IS THAT PWATS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD JUST A BIT,
AND THERE ARE HINTS FROM SEVERAL MODELS THAT THE SHORTWAVE MAY
WEAKLY CLOSE INTO A LOW. THIS COMBINATION WILL YIELD BETTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST - SO YES,
FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD! OVERALL,
AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIGHT, BUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL, OR
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE, IS MORE PROBABLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
APPEAR GREATEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN NM, THEN AFTER A BREAK OVERNIGHT, RETURNING TUESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. SHOULD A LIGHTNING STRIKE FIND DRY FUELS,
NEW FIRE STARTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY TODAY, AS INVERTED-V
PROFILES DIMINISH WITH TOP-DOWN MOISTENING BY TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN ACROSS EASTERN NM TODAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TUESDAY NIGHT,
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ACROSS NM. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE SHORTWAVE AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTER SEASONABLE (OR EVEN BELOW SEASONABLE)
TEMPS MON AND TUE, ALL AREAS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BY
5 TO 12 DEGREES. OCCASIONAL WESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE FELT IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BE ONE OF THE QUIETER DAYS THIS WEEK.
NOT A LOT MORE ACTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER, GULF
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO CREEP BACK INTO EASTERN NM AS AN PACIFIC
LOW GAINS STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION WEST OF CA. THOUGH THIS
FEATURE WILL BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE TO HAVE ANY EFFECT IN NM, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW AIRMASS
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER LATE IN THE AFTN. OTHERWISE, A
FEW WESTERLY BREEZES ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE ON TAP
ONCE AGAIN, AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES.
LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE MAKES A STRONGER PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY NUDGE UP TO THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER
NM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW FRIDAY, AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE DRYLINE/PSEUDO DRYLINE ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTN. THOUGH INITIALLY
LOOKING LIKE A SETUP FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CLOSER
INSPECTION SHOWS A FEW CONCERNS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AND
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S, NEITHER IDEAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WELL
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN NM. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SOCAL AND
ASCENT INCREASES OVER NM. THE LOW WILL SLIDE OVER AZ SUNDAY,
LIKELY WEAKENING/FILLING AS IT DOES SO. NONETHELESS, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. ALL-IN-ALL, FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH *CROSS
YOUR FINGERS* BENEFICIAL RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 21Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL
FURTHER DETERIORATE THEREAFTER. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH. ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THIS AFTN AND EVE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NM. GUSTS UP TO 35KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT MON APR 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 OR 40 MPH
AND RH VALUES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED. A RED
FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS, THOUGH
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM WILL LIKELY RECEIVE LESS. QUIETER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED. GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH A BIGGER RETURN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 70 44 69 39 / 10 30 20 0
DULCE........................... 67 30 63 26 / 20 30 60 5
CUBA............................ 62 36 61 35 / 10 40 50 20
GALLUP.......................... 66 33 65 29 / 30 70 30 0
EL MORRO........................ 63 39 61 36 / 40 80 40 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 36 65 32 / 30 70 50 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 40 63 36 / 60 80 30 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 43 62 42 / 20 80 50 5
DATIL........................... 61 40 61 38 / 40 80 40 0
RESERVE......................... 65 36 68 32 / 60 80 20 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 39 74 37 / 40 70 20 0
CHAMA........................... 60 31 56 29 / 20 20 70 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 43 59 41 / 10 30 70 40
PECOS........................... 63 36 58 35 / 10 30 70 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 36 58 34 / 20 20 80 50
RED RIVER....................... 53 31 49 29 / 20 20 80 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 24 54 23 / 10 20 80 60
TAOS............................ 65 32 61 28 / 10 20 70 50
MORA............................ 63 34 57 34 / 10 20 70 60
ESPANOLA........................ 69 40 65 36 / 10 30 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 63 41 59 40 / 10 30 70 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 41 63 37 / 10 30 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 47 65 47 / 10 60 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 46 67 44 / 10 60 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 46 69 42 / 10 60 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 48 68 44 / 10 60 40 20
BELEN........................... 71 44 70 40 / 10 70 60 20
BERNALILLO...................... 70 47 68 43 / 10 50 50 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 43 69 38 / 10 70 60 20
CORRALES........................ 70 47 68 42 / 10 60 50 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 44 69 40 / 10 70 60 20
PLACITAS........................ 67 47 64 45 / 10 50 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 47 67 44 / 10 60 50 20
SOCORRO......................... 70 47 70 45 / 10 80 60 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 43 60 42 / 10 60 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 65 44 62 42 / 10 60 60 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 41 62 37 / 10 60 60 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 36 64 31 / 10 50 60 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 39 59 37 / 10 50 60 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 40 62 39 / 10 70 70 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 41 61 40 / 10 70 80 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 44 64 44 / 10 80 80 20
RUIDOSO......................... 60 40 58 41 / 10 80 80 20
CAPULIN......................... 65 33 59 33 / 0 5 70 50
RATON........................... 70 31 64 31 / 5 10 70 50
SPRINGER........................ 70 34 64 32 / 5 10 60 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 36 58 35 / 5 20 60 60
CLAYTON......................... 70 41 65 40 / 0 5 50 40
ROY............................. 65 39 59 36 / 0 10 50 50
CONCHAS......................... 72 44 66 39 / 0 10 40 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 43 63 37 / 0 20 60 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 73 44 66 41 / 0 10 50 40
CLOVIS.......................... 70 44 62 41 / 0 20 70 30
PORTALES........................ 73 43 64 38 / 0 20 70 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 42 63 37 / 0 30 60 40
ROSWELL......................... 71 46 67 44 / 5 50 80 20
PICACHO......................... 66 42 63 40 / 10 70 80 20
ELK............................. 63 37 63 38 / 10 70 80 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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