990
FXUS65 KABQ 311736 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY. THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 65
MPH AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST
ON TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.
- A STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BREEZY TO WINDY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON
TUESDAY WHEN DAMAGING GUSTS ARE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED DUST
PRONE AREAS OBSERVING NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD AND GROWTH DUE TO THE GUSTY CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL TODAY, BUT WILL TURN COOLER IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY ONWARD. IN ADDITION TO
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
A POTENT PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY, PUSHING THE JET MAX ON ITS
SOUTHERN EDGE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
CREST OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEEPEN A SFC LOW IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES, CREATING WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST FROM DEVELOPING, BUT
SOME PATCHY BLOWING DUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN DUST-PRONE AREAS.
THE AFORMENTIONED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY,
SENDING THE SW/NE ORIENTED JET MAX OVER NORTHERN NM DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS IN EVERY LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH WILL MAKE TUESDAY A
VERY WINDY AND DUSTY DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THESE STRONGER
WINDS REACHING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS MIXING
OCCURS. THE HIGH WIND WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS FURTHER
WEST AND MORE ADDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
NBM GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT LOW PROBABILITY (<50% IN
MOST AREAS) OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 60MPH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HREF IS EVEN MORE BEARISH WITH PROBS LESS
THAN 20%. THIS IS LIKELY UNDERDONE SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THIS
EVENT WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENT PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT AREA EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE, GUSTY SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL AID IN
BRINGING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
3-MONTH PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE LESS THAN 20% FOR ALMOST THE
ENTIRELY OF NEW MEXICO, WHICH HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR THIS REASON, STRONG WINDS AND
DEEP MIXING (UP TO 12,000 FEET) WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. PREDICTING EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE
VISIBILITY (AND THEREFORE TRAVEL CONDITIONS) WILL BE WORST IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE, BUT AREAS THAT WERE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
FROM THE LAST DUST EVENT ARE A GOOD BET GIVEN THAT THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THAT EVENT. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FAIL TO MAKE IT PAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
GIVEN FRONTOLYSIS THAT WILL OCCUR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONT.
DIVIDE. THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO
SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH OR TWO, BUT THIS WILL MOSTLY BE A DUST/WIND
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
THE SPEED MAX ALOFT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT, AND THE
PACIFIC FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVERTAKING NM. SOME CENTRAL TO
EASTERN AREAS MAY OBSERVE SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, BUT MOST AREAS WILL UNDERGO A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN
WIND SPEED, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO WIND DOWN OVER WEST CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND NORTH CENTRAL
ZONES TUESDAY EVENING WITH MINIMAL MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION.
INTO WEDNESDAY, THE INITIAL ROCKIES LOW WILL RACE TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TAKES AIM AT NM. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AZ BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, REMAINING LIMITED ON MOISTURE AND ONLY
PUSHING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS INTO NORTHWESTERN NM THROUGH THE
EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTABLE REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE SPEED MAX BUFFETS THE
BORDERLAND AND OLD MEXICO. OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF HIGHLAND ZONES
WILL STILL BE WINDY, PERHAPS WARRANTING WIND ADVISORIES, BUT
SPEEDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS IMPACTFUL AS TUESDAY. THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BREEZY (SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH).
WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN CO BY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERIODICALLY REDEVELOPING OVER THE NM-CO
STATE LINE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS TO EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
REMAIN BRISK, BUT THE JET CORE STAYS DISPLACED FARTHER SOUTHEAST
OF NM. DESPITE THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT, HEIGHTS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH, A LONGER WAVE
FEATURE THAT WILL HAVE ITS AXIS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER BASIN BY
LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER
NM WITH A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
OVERTAKING AZ AND NM WITH A LOW DEVELOPING AND CROSSING NM INTO
SATURDAY. OVERALL, THIS WILL KEEP THE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES GOING WHILE INTRODUCING HEALTHY DIFFLUENCE AND
DYNAMICS INTO NM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL HAVE INFILTRATED AT THE SURFACE OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HEALTHY SWATHS OF WETTING RAIN AND
ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. ENSEMBLE MEAN TOTAL PRECIP STILL
PAINTS MOST OF EASTERN NM AND THE TUSAS/JEMEZ WITH 0.5" OR BETTER
QPF (HIGHER ABOVE 1.00" NEAR NM- CO BORDER). THIS WOULD YIELD
SEVERAL INCHES (ROUGHLY 6-15") OF SNOW ABOVE 8,500 FEET AND A FEW
(3-6") FOR MID SLOPE AREAS BETWEEN 6,500-8,500 FT. THE GFS/GEFS
SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE THE TIGHTEST INITIAL LOW CIRCULATION LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LESS COMPETING SATELLITE VORTICES LIKE
THE ECMWF/ENS, SO THE FORMER IS CERTAINLY A WETTER SOLUTION. THIS
WOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY VORT LOBE THAT WOULD ALSO
DEVELOP INTO A LOW THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM, AS
IT WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE PARENT JET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST WILL LIMIT VISIBILITY ON
TUESDAY AFTER 18Z. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS WITH BLOWING
DUST ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 AM MDT MON MAR 31 2025
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER ON TUESDAY AS A JET
MAX MOVES DIRECTLY OVER NORTHERN NM. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A FEW LOCATIONS MAY EXCEED
65 MPH IN THE TYPICAL WINDY AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOWEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE
LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. SUB-15%
MINIMUM RH WILL BE COMMONPLACE EVERYWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, BRIEF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS, BUT
DROPPING TEMPS (AND INCREASING HUMIDITIES) ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS SO OPTED TO NOT EXTEND THE RED
FLAG WARNING WESTWARD FOR NOW.
DESPITE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPS (10-15 DEGREES) ON WEDNESDAY IN
EASTERN NM, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO SPOTTY TO
WARRANT A WATCH FOR NOW. MOISTURE INCREASES LATE WEEK AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND HIGHER. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL IN MOUNTAIN AREAS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF A BACKDOOR FRONT AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 44 54 24 / 0 10 40 20
DULCE........................... 62 32 51 14 / 0 30 50 20
CUBA............................ 64 37 55 20 / 0 5 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 67 36 54 17 / 0 0 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 64 36 53 19 / 0 0 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 68 36 57 18 / 0 0 5 30
QUEMADO......................... 69 38 57 21 / 0 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 70 42 63 28 / 0 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 68 38 57 23 / 0 0 0 20
RESERVE......................... 71 37 62 21 / 0 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 74 41 66 29 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 55 29 43 11 / 0 30 80 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 41 55 27 / 0 0 20 20
PECOS........................... 64 39 58 24 / 0 0 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 35 50 19 / 0 10 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 30 39 13 / 0 10 40 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 55 32 47 14 / 0 10 30 20
TAOS............................ 63 36 55 16 / 0 10 20 20
MORA............................ 63 37 55 20 / 0 0 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 69 43 63 25 / 0 5 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 63 40 58 26 / 0 0 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 41 62 25 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 47 66 33 / 0 0 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 73 46 68 32 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 46 71 26 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 46 68 32 / 0 0 5 20
BELEN........................... 77 44 73 31 / 0 0 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 74 46 69 30 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 43 71 28 / 0 0 0 10
CORRALES........................ 75 46 70 30 / 0 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 44 71 31 / 0 0 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 69 46 64 31 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 73 46 68 31 / 0 0 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 79 45 75 35 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 66 41 60 27 / 0 0 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 68 43 63 28 / 0 0 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 40 64 25 / 0 0 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 38 66 22 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 64 39 61 24 / 0 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 41 65 26 / 0 0 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 42 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 50 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 47 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 62 39 59 22 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 68 39 62 22 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 68 40 64 24 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 66 40 61 23 / 0 0 5 10
CLAYTON......................... 67 44 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 68 43 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 48 76 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 47 73 33 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 75 48 77 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 76 47 80 38 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 76 49 82 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 45 78 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 81 49 83 42 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 78 50 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 76 50 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ207-216>222-224-225-227>241.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ105-121-123.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NMZ202-208-210>215-223-226.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11
PLEASE NOTE: THE SYNOPSIS SECTION WILL BE TERMINATED ON OR ABOUT FRIDAY, APRIL 4.
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