073
FXUS65 KABQ 060753
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1253 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND BOUTS OF
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WITH LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING (50-70%) IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WINTER DRIVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE JET ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TODAY, KEEPING WINDS LIGHTER OVER NM.
AS YESTERDAY’S JET STREAK SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, A BROKEN
SUBTROPICAL SEGMENT OF THE JET WILL THEN COME TO FORM NEAR
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA WHERE AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
USHERED SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH
UPSTREAM TO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT NM WEATHER TODAY. A CONTINUED
STREAM OF MID AND MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO NM WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER, BUT THERE WILL NOT YET
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION. LOOK FOR PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY’S READINGS,
ALBEIT A BIT COOLER IN EASTERN ZONES AS THERE WILL BE LESS
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS.
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL COMMENCE MORE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF CA. SATURATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL SHRINK ENOUGH LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NM FOR PRECIPITATION TO ENSUE WITH LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASING IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW.
MOSTLY NEGLIGIBLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE FORECAST BETWEEN TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY, EVEN WITH WIDESPREAD BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES.
WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH THE 700 MB JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND NOSING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO SONORA,
CHIHUAHUA, AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY WHERE SPEEDS
WILL PUSH UP TO 35 TO 50 KT. SINCE THE CORE OF THESE SPEEDS WILL
BE LARGELY DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA, SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE BREEZY (10-30 MPH) CATEGORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, ESPECIALLY
FOR JANUARY, AS 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE DROPPING TO 0 TO
-2 C BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE PACIFIC LOW WILL FILL IN AND CROSS NM FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
BOOT HEEL OF THE STATE TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SPREADING MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED
QPF SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
(LIQUID) WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 0.2 TO 0.3 INCH IN
SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN ZONES WHERE BETTER OROGRAPHICS AND UPPER
FORCING WOULD BE ALIGNED. TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL TO -4 TO -5 C
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM BY DAWN THURSDAY, SO SNOW WOULD
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 TO 7,500
FEET OR SO.
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WOULD EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THE FLOW WOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PERTURBED IN ITS
WAKE WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER-STYLE TROUGH DIVING IN TOWARD NM VIA THE
POLAR JET. EVEN WITH DISTINCT SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SHARPER FEATURES, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AMID THE COOLING PERTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXTENSIVE LOWER BASED CLOUDS ALSO LOOK TO
LIMIT TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET WILL STEER THE LATTER CLIPPER-STYLE
TROUGH INTO NORTHERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN IT
MAY BRIEFLY EXHIBIT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. ORIGINATING FROM THE
GULF OF AK, THIS FEATURE WILL PACK MUCH COLDER AIR WITH 700 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO -11 TO -15 C THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS, INCREASE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS, AND
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 15 BELOW NORMAL. THE CONSENSUS IS FOR 0.1
TO 0.3 INCHES OF QPF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE INTERIOR
HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN TIER OF NM OBSERVING THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS OF A FEW TO SEVERAL (3 TO 8) INCHES. DISCREPANCIES AMONG
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE NARROWING WITH
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSES ALSO ADVERTISING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY TROUGH PASSAGE. WOULD
EXPECT BLENDED POP GUIDANCE TO CLIMB UPWARDS IF THIS TREND HOLDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. THE OTHER IMPACTS THAT WE WILL BE
FOCUSING ON IS THE STARK CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES, AS THE FLIP TO
BELOW NORMAL READINGS WILL BRING AN ABRUPT SOCIETAL SHOCK GIVEN
OUR RECENT RECORD-BREAKING DECEMBER WARMTH. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL CATCH MANY OFF GUARD IF NOT PREPARED, SO
THIS WILL BE A MESSAGING FOCAL POINT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT
ARE UNHOUSED OR WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DEFINED BY RISING
HEIGHTS, GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND A LIGHTER WIND FIELD
ALOFT. HOWEVER, PINPOINTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE TRICKY,
AS THE FLOW WILL BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A STEEP RIDGE OFFSHORE
OF THE WEST COAST AND ONE OR MORE DRY CUT-OFF LOWS MEANDERING
AROUND THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT THE SFC HAVE DECREASED, BUT STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE LLWS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. PATCHY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN WESTERN NM, WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN. LIGHT WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
WHILE THERE WILL BE A FEW BOUTS OF STRONGER WINDS, THEY SHOULD BE
COMPLEMENTED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW THAT
WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS
TODAY WILL REDUCE CONSIDERABLY FROM YESTERDAY’S SPEEDS AS THE CORE
OF THE JET STREAM MOVES EASTWARD. BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY FALLING TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL FUEL MOISTURE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. A COUPLE TO A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW MAY GRACE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND THE NORTHERN
TIER OF NM ZONES, BUT MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE LEFT
OUT WHERE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS HAVE BEEN CLIMBING THE MOST
DUE TO A DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE AND REBOUND INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND NO LOOMING WIND CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 51 29 51 31 / 0 0 0 30
DULCE........................... 49 19 50 23 / 0 0 10 50
CUBA............................ 49 24 50 25 / 0 0 5 50
GALLUP.......................... 51 19 50 25 / 0 0 10 40
EL MORRO........................ 51 26 49 28 / 0 0 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 53 21 53 26 / 0 0 10 50
QUEMADO......................... 53 26 50 28 / 0 0 40 50
MAGDALENA....................... 53 34 52 32 / 0 0 30 60
DATIL........................... 52 29 49 29 / 0 0 30 60
RESERVE......................... 58 24 53 25 / 0 0 60 60
GLENWOOD........................ 62 28 57 28 / 0 0 60 70
CHAMA........................... 43 20 44 22 / 0 0 5 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 47 30 47 29 / 0 0 0 40
PECOS........................... 53 29 52 27 / 0 0 0 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 27 47 26 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 40 24 40 21 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 19 46 18 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 50 21 51 23 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 53 28 56 26 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 54 23 55 25 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA FE........................ 49 31 50 30 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 37 53 36 / 0 0 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 32 55 33 / 0 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 30 57 31 / 0 0 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 33 55 33 / 0 0 5 40
BELEN........................... 55 26 55 31 / 0 0 20 50
BERNALILLO...................... 56 31 56 33 / 0 0 5 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 26 56 28 / 0 0 20 50
CORRALES........................ 56 31 56 32 / 0 0 5 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 28 55 31 / 0 0 20 50
PLACITAS........................ 51 34 52 35 / 0 0 5 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 32 55 33 / 0 0 5 40
SOCORRO......................... 58 33 57 33 / 0 0 30 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 49 31 50 31 / 0 0 10 50
TIJERAS......................... 50 31 50 32 / 0 0 10 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 52 29 53 31 / 0 0 10 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 21 55 28 / 0 0 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 29 52 30 / 0 0 5 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 30 53 31 / 0 0 20 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 31 54 31 / 0 0 20 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 36 58 33 / 0 0 30 70
RUIDOSO......................... 56 37 54 32 / 0 0 40 70
CAPULIN......................... 53 27 56 26 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 54 24 57 25 / 0 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 58 24 60 27 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 29 57 28 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 59 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 56 29 60 32 / 0 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 63 33 67 35 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 37 62 36 / 0 0 0 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 30
CLOVIS.......................... 66 37 68 38 / 0 0 0 50
PORTALES........................ 66 35 68 39 / 0 0 5 50
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 33 65 37 / 0 0 5 50
ROSWELL......................... 66 36 67 38 / 0 0 10 60
PICACHO......................... 66 38 66 36 / 0 0 10 50
ELK............................. 66 35 66 31 / 0 0 30 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16
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