018
FXUS65 KABQ 180620
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1220 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- A SURGE OF RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH TODAY, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS TODAY
AND THURSDAY.
- WATER WILL BEGIN TO FLOW IN NORMALLY DRY ARROYOS, CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND TRIBUTARIES TO MAINSTEM RIVERS THAT HAVE DRIED UP
THIS SUMMER. DIRT ROADS WILL BECOME MUDDY, AND LARGE AREAS OF
STANDING WATER MAY FORM IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEK
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS, WET MICROBURSTS, AND
SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
IT'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER WET NIGHT AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. A JET STREAK OVER NORTHWEST NM HAS FAVORED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTION TONIGHT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM, WITH DEVELOPMENT
INCHING FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE RGV WHERE SPC MESOANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THE MOST UNSTABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES. THE OTHER
FEATURE TO WATCH TONIGHT WILL ANOTHER BROAD REGION OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL SHORTWAVE. BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ON ITS LEADING EDGE WILL BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, WITH A STEADY RAIN FORECAST IN MOST AREAS.
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THIS BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL LIFT INTO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE MORNING HOURS, REACHING THE CO BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. CLEARING IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS PRIOR TO THE
DEVELOPMENT AFTERNOON STORMS, INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
ANOTHER VORT LOBE COMING UP FROM SE ARIZONA WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL NM. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE (LIS OF -2 TO -4C), BUT THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST WITH PWATS STILL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
RAINFALL RATES WON'T BE QUITE AS EFFICIENT HAS THEY HAVE BEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IT WILL STILL NOT TAKE A LOT OF RAINFALL TO
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WITH SOIL MOISTURE SO HIGH. ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR FRIDAY UPON THE EXPIRATION OF
TONIGHT'S AT 3 AM. FRIDAY NIGHT'S SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL BE LESS
ROBUST THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS IS LIKELY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP GETS ORIENTED MORE ZONALLY.
A MORE STARK DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH THAT WAS
OVER CALIFORNIA A COUPLE DAYS AGO CROSSES OVER THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST,
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE A FEW FAST-MOVING GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK WILL BE NOTABLY LOWER. THE MAIN AREA WE'RE WATCHING FOR
SATURDAY IS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE IT WILL BE MORE
UNSTABLE AND A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD SPARK A FEW STORMS. THE LIMITING FAVOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE SHEAR, BUT IT WILL BE AN AREA TO WATCH IN
THE COMING DAYS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
DRY WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTER DAYS OF SOAKING RAINFALL.
IT WILL FEEL LIKE LATE SEPTEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WITH
A LIGHT WEST BREEZE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EAST, WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE GETS
PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH OUT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE DIVING
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL FOCUS A MOISTURE PLUME OVER NEW MEXICO, WITH RAPIDLY
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BOTH LOOK TO BE VERY WET AND THERE COULD BE A
SEVERE THREAT AS WELL GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVING
OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES MAY DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK
AS DRIER AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (AS SHOWN BY
THE DETERMINISTIC EURO), BUT LREF ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS ARE STILL
SHOWING PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OVER ALL OF NEW MEXICO SO
THE ODDS ARE IN FAVOR OF WET WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF
THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NM.
THIS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REACH
KABQ-KAEG-KSAF DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. PATCHY FOG AND MIST ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN NM
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCLUDE, SO AMDS MAY BE NECESSARY. A
BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATE
MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GETS UNDERWAY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY 18Z.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LOOK TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, WITH OVERALL
ACTIVITY SHIFTING EASTWARD MORE SO OVER CENTRAL NM AND OUT OVER
THE HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY'S
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ONCE AGAIN. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
0.1-0.5" RANGE, EXCEPT FOR HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN STRONGER STORMS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH FRIDAY. EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AND PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS MORNING AND
SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL
SHOWERS WILL TEND TO LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES TREND LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A WET PATTERN IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
NOTABLY COOLER, WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 54 78 50 / 60 30 10 0
DULCE........................... 74 40 76 38 / 70 50 30 0
CUBA............................ 71 48 73 46 / 80 40 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 75 46 75 44 / 50 20 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 73 46 74 45 / 70 30 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 75 48 77 46 / 70 30 50 5
QUEMADO......................... 76 50 76 48 / 60 20 40 10
MAGDALENA....................... 74 54 76 54 / 80 40 60 10
DATIL........................... 72 50 74 49 / 70 20 40 5
RESERVE......................... 80 51 82 49 / 40 10 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 88 57 89 56 / 30 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 68 44 68 41 / 80 50 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 53 73 52 / 80 40 40 10
PECOS........................... 74 50 77 49 / 70 50 40 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 71 49 73 47 / 60 40 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 63 42 65 39 / 60 50 20 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 40 70 40 / 60 40 20 10
TAOS............................ 74 45 76 43 / 50 50 20 10
MORA............................ 75 48 78 46 / 50 50 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 78 53 80 51 / 70 40 40 10
SANTA FE........................ 73 54 75 53 / 80 50 40 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 52 77 50 / 70 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 79 59 82 58 / 70 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 56 80 56 / 70 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 56 82 55 / 70 40 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 59 80 57 / 70 30 40 30
BELEN........................... 81 54 82 53 / 80 40 50 30
BERNALILLO...................... 80 57 82 55 / 70 30 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 80 53 81 52 / 80 40 50 30
CORRALES........................ 80 57 82 56 / 70 30 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 80 55 82 54 / 80 40 40 30
PLACITAS........................ 77 57 79 56 / 70 40 40 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 79 57 81 56 / 70 30 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 84 59 85 59 / 80 40 40 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 52 77 52 / 70 40 40 30
TIJERAS......................... 75 54 77 54 / 70 40 40 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 50 80 49 / 70 40 40 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 79 47 82 46 / 70 40 40 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 76 51 78 50 / 70 50 40 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 51 79 51 / 60 50 40 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 53 79 52 / 60 50 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 82 59 83 58 / 50 50 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 77 54 80 54 / 60 60 40 30
CAPULIN......................... 81 52 81 50 / 30 20 10 5
RATON........................... 83 49 84 47 / 30 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 85 49 86 48 / 30 40 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 77 50 81 48 / 50 50 10 10
CLAYTON......................... 89 62 90 59 / 10 20 10 5
ROY............................. 83 55 85 53 / 40 40 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 91 63 92 60 / 40 40 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 60 87 59 / 60 50 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 63 91 61 / 20 40 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 93 64 92 62 / 10 40 20 20
PORTALES........................ 93 65 92 63 / 10 40 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 91 62 91 60 / 40 50 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 94 65 93 63 / 20 50 40 40
PICACHO......................... 87 59 88 58 / 80 60 60 30
ELK............................. 86 57 87 55 / 60 50 60 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ201>204-207-
210>221-226.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24
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