638
FXUS65 KABQ 030728
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
- SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN FLASH FLOODING ON RECENT
BURN SCARS AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA
AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS TODAY.
- SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL THREATEN FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL THREATEN STRONG AND
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS, DRY LIGHTNING, AND RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
CONVECTION HAD LARGELY EXITED EAST CENTRAL NM BY MIDNIGHT WITH
JUST SOME REMNANT STRATIFORM RAIN DECAYING THEREAFTER IN
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST COUNTIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR CIRCULATION
IS MODELED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM THIS MORNING, BUT IT’S DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DUE TO SO MUCH ANVIL CIRRUS
OVER THIS AREA OF THE STATE. THIS FEATURE IS PROJECTED TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EVENING, AND LIKELY WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO
ENHANCE TODAY’S ROUND OF CONVECTION, BUT RATHER COULD IMPEDE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE DUE TO
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND THEN SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF IT.
OTHERWISE, THE OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE WEAK LOW
CIRCULATION OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA WHICH WILL DROP OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING, NOT REALLY COMING INTO PLAY FOR NM WEATHER
UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
THE LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON TODAY’S
WEATHER, DICTATING WHERE CONVECTION WILL FIRE, AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVANCED FARTHER INTO WESTERN NM AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION TODAY, POSING DIFFICULTIES FOR STORMS TO MOVE OFF OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND OTHER WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. THE
DEWPOINTS AND PWATS ARE ALSO MORE MODEST IN THESE AREAS (0.6 TO
0.8 INCH PWATS), AND THESE MOISTURE PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE WESTERN ZONES. THE LOWER PWAT VALUES
IN THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AREA WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN SUPPORT MUCH
MEASURABLE RAIN. THE HREF AND REFS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD DESTABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CELLS
ROLLING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONGLOMERATING INTO MULTICELLULAR
CLUSTERS, EVENTUALLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY THE EARLY
EVENING. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES ALSO AGREE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION IN NORTHEAST
NM MAY IMPEDE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THERE. CONVECTION WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY THE LATE EVENING WITH CELLS
DECAYING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
AS FOR THE LINCOLN COUNTY BURN SCARS, THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
AND INDIVIDUAL CAM’S HAVE A CONSENSUS FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS,
ONE THAT INITIATES OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY EVENING MULTICELLULAR BATCH THAT
PROPAGATES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIME FRAME
CAPTURES THIS WELL, SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
MORE DRY AIR LOOKS TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. THIS
WILL PUT THE FOCUS FOR SLOW-MOVING STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND A TERTIARY AREA OF
CHAVES COUNTY. WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF CA, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE TO DEVELOP OVER CHIHUAHUA
AND SOUTHERN NM. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME STRETCHING ALOFT THAT
MIGHT ASSIST STORMS, BUT OVERALL THE CROP SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
MORE SUBDUED ON THURSDAY. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE AN
INITIATION POINT AGAIN, SO FLASH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CLEAR
AND PRESENT DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE LOW OVER THE GULF OF CA IS NOW MODELED TO MOVE SLOWER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, ONLY TREKKING INTO CHIHUAHUA BY FRIDAY
BEFORE LIFTING INTO WEST TX ON SATURDAY, LARGELY BYPASSING NM.
FRIDAY’S CONVECTION WILL CONSEQUENTLY FAVOR SIMILAR AREAS TO
THURSDAY, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE WOULD SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD, LIKELY NOT DOING MUCH TO ENHANCE STORM INITIATION.
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD WOULD THEN BE FAVORED FOR
STORMS SATURDAY WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER PWATS (0.8 TO 1.0 INCH)
WILL BE HANGING ON. MORE DRIER AIR WOULD BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW MOVE FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
WITH THE ECMWF BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING.
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL COME INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY WITH HIGHER
HEIGHTS AND RIDGING TRYING TO HOLD GROUND OVER NM. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW THE LOW/TROUGH MOVING INLAND OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE
HOLDING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL STATES AND NM, BUT INDIVIDUAL
DETERMINISTIC MEMBERS REVEAL STARKER DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE
PROFILES. BLENDED POP GUIDANCE FROM THE NBM RETAINS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CLIMATOLOGY LEANING TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS BORDER JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING RAIN AND
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REDEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU NEAR KFMN. STORMS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WILL BE NOT PRODUCE QUITE AS MUCH RAIN, BUT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PACKING A PUNCH IN THE FORM OR DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT.
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL PRODUCE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING. STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY FILLING IN TO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND OTHER NEARBY LOWLANDS. ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, FOCUSING TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO (KROW, KCVN) BEFORE
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
DEEPER MOISTURE IS PLANTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM, BUT
INCREASED MOISTURE HAS ADVANCED TOWARD AZ AND THE FOUR CORNERS
WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 30’S AND LOW 40’S. THIS WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST TODAY,
BUT THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT AT
PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE DUE TO DRIER SUB-CLOUD
PROFILES. THIS WILL KEEP A LOOMING CONCERN FOR DRY STORMS AND NEW
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS IN FAR WESTERN NM TODAY WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE ACCUMULATES MORE WETTING RAINFALL. THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL MODELED TO REDUCE SIGNIFICANTLY
INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH STORMS FAVORING THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY, STORMS WILL MOSTLY STAY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, FOLLOWED BY A DRIER
SPELL WITH FEWER STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
STORMS WILL RETURN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL POSE THE PRIMARY WIND
CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH WESTERN AREAS OBSERVING THEIR
DRIEST SPELL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON RH WILL
PLUMMET TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 55 91 55 / 5 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 81 41 86 43 / 30 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 77 48 84 51 / 40 20 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 82 46 87 48 / 20 5 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 77 48 82 51 / 60 10 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 79 48 86 51 / 50 10 10 5
QUEMADO......................... 79 49 84 52 / 50 20 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 77 53 80 57 / 80 30 10 5
DATIL........................... 75 50 80 52 / 70 20 30 5
RESERVE......................... 83 47 88 48 / 60 20 50 10
GLENWOOD........................ 86 50 91 51 / 60 20 60 20
CHAMA........................... 74 40 79 43 / 50 20 20 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 74 53 80 57 / 60 40 30 5
PECOS........................... 72 47 81 49 / 70 50 30 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 47 80 51 / 60 20 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 65 39 71 43 / 70 20 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 39 75 43 / 80 20 40 10
TAOS............................ 76 46 82 49 / 60 20 10 5
MORA............................ 69 46 79 48 / 80 50 40 5
ESPANOLA........................ 82 52 88 56 / 40 30 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 75 52 81 56 / 50 40 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 78 51 84 54 / 40 30 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 82 59 87 64 / 50 30 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 83 57 88 61 / 40 30 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 85 57 90 60 / 40 30 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 84 57 88 61 / 40 20 0 5
BELEN........................... 85 56 89 58 / 30 20 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 84 56 89 61 / 40 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 84 57 89 57 / 40 30 0 5
CORRALES........................ 85 57 90 61 / 40 20 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 85 57 89 59 / 40 30 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 79 56 85 61 / 40 30 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 84 56 89 61 / 40 20 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 87 58 90 62 / 50 20 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 75 52 82 57 / 60 30 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 77 52 82 56 / 60 40 5 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 76 49 83 54 / 60 40 20 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 77 47 84 51 / 60 40 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 72 48 79 52 / 60 50 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 76 49 82 54 / 70 50 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 50 79 54 / 50 50 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 57 81 60 / 40 50 40 5
RUIDOSO......................... 70 52 74 54 / 80 50 80 5
CAPULIN......................... 69 45 78 48 / 30 20 20 5
RATON........................... 74 48 82 50 / 40 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 75 49 82 51 / 40 30 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 48 79 50 / 60 50 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 73 52 83 55 / 30 20 5 0
ROY............................. 70 50 80 53 / 40 30 20 10
CONCHAS......................... 78 55 86 58 / 50 50 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 52 82 55 / 50 50 20 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 56 86 59 / 50 40 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 76 57 83 59 / 50 50 50 10
PORTALES........................ 77 57 84 59 / 50 50 60 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 78 55 83 58 / 40 50 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 83 59 84 61 / 40 60 20 20
PICACHO......................... 76 54 81 55 / 50 50 60 5
ELK............................. 73 53 81 54 / 80 40 80 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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