046
FXUS65 KABQ 250001 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 440 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BRING CROSSWINDS TO
AREA HIGHWAYS THIS AFTERNOON.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AFTER THANKSGIVING, INCLUDING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY WEEK, WILL WANT TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE
LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER
TRAVEL ROUTES OR PLANS, AS THERE ARE INCREASING INDICATIONS A
POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
CONDITIONS HAVE CLEARED OUT ALOFT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD
HANGING AROUND PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE DECK OF STRATUS AND MIST AND FOG TO
PERSIST IN THESE AREAS OF THE STATE, NOTABLY ACROSS SAN JUAN COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY B/W TAOS AND THE CO
STATE LINE. STEADILY INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY
BEGIN, AND WILL STEADILY SPREAD LOWER TO ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOCUS IN AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN MT/WY WILL TRY TO CLOSE OFF
TO A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SEND DOWN A COLD FRONT BACKING SOUTH AND WEST INTO NORTHEASTERN NM.
CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK 5F TO
10F MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHER OF U.S. HWY 60 THRU EASTERN NM
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
THE DRY COLD FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND WESTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE 5F TO 10F TEMPERATURE DROP TO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF U.S. HWY 60 WITH A MORE MODERATED COOLDOWN ALONG
THE HIGHLANDS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT THRU THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH WARMING AND CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THRU THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY BEGINS TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO LOWER FOR THE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD AS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THEIR
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE DIVERGED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH THE FORECAST STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS NEXT WINTER
SYSTEM. A WIDE RANGE OF SCENARIOS FOR NM RANGING FROM LITTLE WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO A FULL ON WINTER STORM EXISTS. THE CURRENT LA NINA
SETUP OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC GIVES GREATER WEIGHT TO
SCENARIOS WITH A STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH BRINGING A MINOR TO
MODERATE WINTER SYSTEM TO THE REGION AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM. THOSE WITH POST-THANKSGIVING PLANS OR TRAVEL DURING
THIS TIME SHOULD REMAIN PRUDENT IN STAYING UP-TO-DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRENDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER HAZARD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS WEST OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS, IMPACTING CHAMA, DULCE,
AND FOR A SHORTER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT DURATION FARMINGTON. WE
HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS
FORECAST IN THE KFMN TAF, SINCE MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR AT
FORECASTING LOW CLOUDS THERE IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS A
ROUGHLY 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD RETURN TO KFMN AS
EARLY AS 05Z THIS EVENING, AND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THEY MAY
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL
BE PASSING THIN AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST THRU THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT KNOCKS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK 5-10F ACROSS EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF
A MORE ACTIVE COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 29 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 20 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 24 49 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 25 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 23 54 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 52 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 32 55 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 28 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 23 62 22 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 67 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 18 45 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 29 52 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 47 23 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 39 17 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 46 10 46 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 21 50 18 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 25 52 19 54 / 0 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 25 55 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 31 50 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 27 52 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 60 23 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 33 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 58 19 57 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 59 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 31 59 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 59 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 33 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 57 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 33 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 30 50 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 31 52 26 51 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 28 53 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 55 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 51 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 28 54 23 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 55 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 59 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 55 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 26 43 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 24 51 19 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 22 53 21 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 26 52 22 55 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 34 49 25 52 / 0 5 0 0
ROY............................. 29 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 29 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 32 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 29 57 26 58 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 34 60 29 55 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 32 62 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 33 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 37 67 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 37 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 31 65 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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