190
FXUS65 KABQ 282321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
421 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS DAILY
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE WARMTH PEAKING ON SUNDAY.
- PERIODIC ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND AT LEAST SOME CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MORE TYPICAL OF MID-MAY WILL TAKE SHAPE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A 590DM H5 HIGH OVER THE BAJA TODAY WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO NORTHERN MX THRU MONDAY WHILE A 556DM H5 LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN CA AND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. DAILY AIRMASS MIXING IS
PROGGED TO RISE BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY
MARCH. THIS WILL ASSIST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NBM 5.0 IS NOW
SHOWING A NEAR 70% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 80F AT KABQ SUNDAY AND
NEAR 60% MONDAY. ROSWELL HAS A 30% CHANCE OF REACHING 90F ON SUNDAY
AND NEAR 40% MONDAY. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPS OVER THE
REGION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
MPH SUNDAY AND 25 TO 35 MPH MONDAY. THESE WINDS WITH LOW HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CROSSES INTO UT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL RESULT WILL REMAIN VERY
DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER NM (JUST HOW DRY AND WINDY
REMAIN THE QUESTION). TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHWEST NM WITH
THE APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHILE REMAINING VERY WARM OVER
EASTERN NM. WINDS PEAK AREAWIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM.
A NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT IN THE WAKE OF THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL USHER
IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE READINGS ARE STILL
5 TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
A BRIEF COOLDOWN WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO YET
ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE NORTH OF NM THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPS AND MORE
WIND WILL OCCUR WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY ONCE AGAIN. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY RETURN EASTERN NM CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS.
THE NEXT UPPER WAVE IS ON TARGET TO APPROACH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND FOR NM. THIS WAVE MAY BE SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF A
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL
LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-25KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 108 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK ACROSS PARTS OF NM. A MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL DELIVER NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARM TEMPS, STRONG WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS, MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 7 TO 12% RANGE,
AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL
BE FAIR TO GOOD MOST NIGHTS EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES AND EVEN SOME LOW CLOUDS OR FOG). THE MAIN AREAS TO WATCH
NEXT WEEK ARE LAS VEGAS TO RATON AND GALLUP TO GRANTS MONDAY, THEN A
LARGER OF EASTERN NM TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. FINE FUELS ALSO REMAIN
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE GROWTH AS EVIDENCED BY SMALL WILDFIRES SPREADING
OVER EASTERN NM ON DAYS WITHOUT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WIND TRENDS FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 35 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 26 67 27 67 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 69 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 28 72 30 71 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 74 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 44 76 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 71 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 33 80 35 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 37 83 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 29 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 36 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 64 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 30 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 62 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 29 68 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 35 69 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 75 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 72 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 43 79 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 82 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 81 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 79 43 80 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 81 38 83 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 40 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 37 81 40 83 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 45 75 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 84 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 43 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 75 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 33 75 34 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 47 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 45 73 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 69 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 30 73 30 72 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 30 76 30 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 73 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 70 34 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 37 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 35 82 35 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 39 80 38 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 38 82 36 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 83 40 80 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 39 85 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 84 38 81 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 45 88 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 45 84 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 42 85 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...11
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