936
FXUS65 KABQ 212002
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
102 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
- QUIET WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING CLOUDS, AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES.
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW, WINTRY MIX,
FRIGID TEMPERATURES, BLOWING SNOW, AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MINOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL AND RELAXES A
BIT. HIGH CIRRUS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
AND WHILE THIS MAY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RATHER CHILLY. THE ZONAL FLOW WITH HIGH
SATURATION AT 500 TO 300 MB WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, MAKING A
CLOUDY, BUT FAIR WEATHER DAY AGAIN. THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES (GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH) TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE A DEEP AND VAST UPPER LOW SPINS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES, A
FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE PLAINS, MAKING
ITS WAY INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY LATE DAY.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPSTREAM CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WILL
SLIDE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH, STILL STAYING OVER OPEN WATER. A TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING TREND GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MID LEVEL
SATURATION LEADING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THROUGH DAWN FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED
ARCTIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AS A VERY
STOUT 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
DAKOTAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...
THE PREVIOUSLY TWO MENTIONED FEATURES, THE ARCTIC FRONT AND THE
INCOMING REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC CUT-OFF LOW WILL WORK IN TANDEM
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL ALL CREATE A HIGH
IMPACT WINTER STORM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL
TAP OF MOISTURE WILL FEED A LONG DURATION OF MOISTURE INTO NM AND
SURROUNDING STATES WHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON, FIRST TO THE EASTERN HALF OF NM BY FRIDAY MORNING,
BEFORE SEEPING INTO A FEW CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA BY LATE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR
ALOFT TO SPILL INTO NM, JUST AS THE REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC LOW WILL
BE CROSSING INTO SONORA AND ENCROACHING UPON CHIHUAHUA. THE MOISTURE
TAP IS SUBSTANTIAL WITH PWATS PROGGED TO REACH 3 TO 4 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY LATE FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NM. THIS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP
FRIGID LOW LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD A HEALTHY SWATH OF HEAVY
SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
HAVE OPTED TO EXPAND THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO SOME CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOOKING TO BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR TRAVEL, INCLUDING I-40 ACROSS ALBUQUERQUE WESTWARD TO GRANTS. A
GLANCE AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH LOW 10-
20% CHANCE FOR SLEET IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES (SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT AND
CHAVES COUNTIES) WHERE THE LOW LAYER WARM NOSE WILL COME CLOSE TO
INTRODUCING A BRIEF MELTING OF FLAKES BEFORE THEY FALL INTO THE MORE
FRIGID NEAR-SURFACE AIR. WESTERN ZONES WILL PREDOMINANTLY STAY RAIN
BELOW 8,000 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW, AND
SOME RAIN MAY BE REINTRODUCED BELOW 6,000 FEET AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE ABQ METRO WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH THESE RAIN-SNOW-RAIN
TRANSITIONS AND THE EAST WIND WHICH TRADITIONALLY WILL CREATE A
PRECIPITATION SHADOW IN THE METRO. THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARE MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR MODELS TO LATCH ONTO ITS
INFILTRATION INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE
RATHER SUBDUED. IN ADDITION, HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES BROUGHT ON
BY THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE COULD OVERCOME SHADOWING EFFECTS,
ALLOWING A COUPLE TO A FEW INCHES TO STACK UP IN THE METRO BY EARLY
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND THAT NIGHT.
AFTER ALREADY OBSERVING SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN NM, THE FRIGID AIR WILL THEN OVERTAKE MANY WESTERN
ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
POTENTIALLY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT FOR
NOW WE ARE INCLUDING THIS MESSAGING AS PART OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH.
PRECIPITATION IS MODELED TO WANE ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS NM, BUT ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WILL
BE IN STORE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WITH LOTS OF
SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
GEFS FAMILY IS A BIT SLOWER TO BRING THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS NM
COMPARED TO THE ENS FAMILY. THIS GEFS FAMILY SOLUTION ALLOWS A FEW
WEAKLY FORCED, MOSTLY FROM OROGRAPHICS IN NORTHWEST FLOW, LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BY MONDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BACKS MORE ZONAL WITH A DRY
TREND CONTINUING. THE FLOW ALOFT MAY REVERT BACK TO MORE
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BUT NO STRONG
FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP WITH DAYTIME HIGHS STILL
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH, FAIR WEATHER CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES.
BREEZES WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS, INCLUDING THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS
MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 20-25 KT, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER A PAIR OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL, FAIR WEATHER DAYS
TODAY AND THURSDAY, A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL BRING AN ABRUPT CHANGE
TO THE PATTERN INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A COUPLE TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FRIGID
TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WILL BE SLOW TO
LEAVE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 47 28 48 / 0 0 5 30
DULCE........................... 16 50 23 44 / 0 0 10 70
CUBA............................ 23 50 25 42 / 0 0 5 60
GALLUP.......................... 17 54 21 47 / 0 0 5 50
EL MORRO........................ 18 52 22 43 / 0 0 5 70
GRANTS.......................... 16 56 19 46 / 0 0 5 60
QUEMADO......................... 21 55 23 47 / 0 0 10 80
MAGDALENA....................... 30 56 33 46 / 0 0 10 70
DATIL........................... 24 54 27 45 / 0 0 10 70
RESERVE......................... 23 59 26 51 / 0 0 10 80
GLENWOOD........................ 29 63 31 54 / 0 0 20 80
CHAMA........................... 18 44 22 38 / 0 0 5 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 48 30 39 / 0 0 0 50
PECOS........................... 25 51 23 37 / 0 0 0 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 23 46 26 40 / 0 0 0 30
RED RIVER....................... 15 42 14 35 / 0 0 0 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 9 45 5 38 / 0 0 0 40
TAOS............................ 17 49 20 41 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 26 55 19 37 / 0 0 0 40
ESPANOLA........................ 20 54 20 46 / 0 0 0 40
SANTA FE........................ 24 49 24 40 / 0 0 0 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 50 20 44 / 0 0 0 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 53 32 46 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 54 30 47 / 0 0 5 60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 56 21 48 / 0 0 0 60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 54 31 46 / 0 0 0 60
BELEN........................... 24 56 27 48 / 0 0 5 70
BERNALILLO...................... 27 55 28 48 / 0 0 0 60
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 21 56 23 48 / 0 0 5 70
CORRALES........................ 27 55 28 48 / 0 0 0 60
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 55 25 48 / 0 0 5 70
PLACITAS........................ 29 52 30 45 / 0 0 0 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 54 32 46 / 0 0 0 60
SOCORRO......................... 29 59 32 51 / 0 0 10 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 50 29 40 / 0 0 5 70
TIJERAS......................... 30 50 30 43 / 0 0 5 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 26 52 26 38 / 0 0 0 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 18 55 19 39 / 0 0 0 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 51 21 31 / 0 0 0 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 27 53 26 41 / 0 0 5 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 27 54 27 41 / 0 0 5 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 57 34 50 / 0 0 10 70
RUIDOSO......................... 26 55 30 40 / 0 0 10 80
CAPULIN......................... 19 50 13 24 / 0 0 5 20
RATON........................... 18 52 15 28 / 0 0 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 18 55 17 31 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 24 57 19 31 / 0 0 0 30
CLAYTON......................... 24 48 14 20 / 0 0 10 30
ROY............................. 24 51 18 26 / 0 0 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 25 57 22 32 / 0 0 5 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 60 23 32 / 0 0 0 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 27 59 21 30 / 0 0 5 30
CLOVIS.......................... 28 60 25 32 / 0 0 5 30
PORTALES........................ 26 63 25 34 / 0 0 5 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 24 63 24 35 / 0 0 5 40
ROSWELL......................... 24 62 32 42 / 0 0 5 60
PICACHO......................... 31 65 31 41 / 0 0 5 60
ELK............................. 29 64 30 43 / 0 0 10 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NMZ207-208-210>212-214-218-219-221>226-229-232>241.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page