367
FXUS65 KABQ 260945
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN AREAS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL ON TODAY.
- VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
AND AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY DO SOME DAMAGE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
GUSTS WILL REACH AROUND 60 MPH.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD, AND OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS, WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS, BLOWING
DUST, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE STATE WITH WET
ROADS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, SLICK ROADS DUE TO SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN
PASSES, AND PERIODS OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CO TODAY STEERING A STRONG JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 700-500 MB WIND SPEEDS
VARYING BETWEEN 40-70 KT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENT LEE TROUGH
SOUTH OF A ~991 MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO. WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES
THIS AFTERNOON, CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SHOULD MIX BETWEEN
13,000-16000 FEET ENABLING THERMALS TO TAP INTO THAT STRONG
MOMENTUM ALOFT. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TODAY SHOULD
COMMONLY PEAK BETWEEN 45-55 MPH, EXCEPT FOR GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS, AND FROM LAS VEGAS
SOUTHWARD TO RUIDOSO AND DUNKEN. WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WE
EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
ESTANCIA VALLEY, EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY, AND QUAY COUNTY. THE
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS
KS TONIGHT, WHILE THE JET CORE LINGERS OVER NM ENABLING WINDY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. WIND GUSTS ON PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO REACH AROUND 50 MPH THIS EVENING, AND UP TO
45 MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
IN ADDITION, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS FROM
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL ONLY RECEIVE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL, EXCEPT UP TO ABOUT 0.20" NEAR THE CO BORDER. A DUSTING
TO AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL SNOW (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT) IS FORECAST ABOVE 9000' IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT
UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS ABOVE CHAMA. ON THE EDGES OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREA, SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER AND GUSTIER WITH
LITTLE MORE THAN GUSTY SPRINKLES FROM GALLUP TO SANTA FE AND
GLORIETA, FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON, AND FROM RATON TO CLAYTON.
INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH VIRGA SHOWERS FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON, AND FROM RATON
TO CLAYTON.
THE STRONG WINDS, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, AND SPOTTY DRY STORMS WILL
CREATE CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, AND ALSO ALONG AND EAST OF I-25, FROM 11
AM TO 8 PM TODAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL THEN CONTINUE EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON MONDAY, AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON TUESDAY, AS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES KEEPS THE FLOW ALOFT BRISK OVER NM WITH
PERSISTENT LEE-SIDE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. PEAK GUSTS ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO
REACH 45 MPH, WHILE GUSTS FARTHER WEST REACH 30-40 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY.
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TODAY AS MUCH AS 8 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY'S READINGS, WHILE
CLIMBING A FEW TO 6 DEGREES CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO REBOUND OVER WESTERN AREAS MONDAY, WHILE TUMBLING AS MUCH
AS 6 DEGREES IN THE EAST. READINGS SHOULD THEN CLIMB A FEW TO 5
DEGREES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER WEATHER
AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD AND WETTING RAIN SHOWERS,
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AS A POTENTIALLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PLOWS EASTWARD ACROSS NM. THE STORM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DRAW A GUSTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BEGIN TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER WESTERN
AREAS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MODELS AGREE FAIRLY
WELL THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE
UPPER LOW CROSSES SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, THEY
DEPICT A SECOND DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE
WITH SOME LIGHTER PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY A FEW TO
AROUND 19 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS FROM 35-45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR PEAK GUSTS
AROUND 50 KT FROM LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO SANTA ROSA, GRAN QUIVIRA,
RUIDOSO, AND DUNKEN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE MOUNTAINS, ALONG ADJACENT EAST SLOPES, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AS WELL. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO FROM THE
CO BORDER, THE LIGHTER THE SHOWERS WILL BE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS IN THE MIX THE CLOSER YOU GET TO I-40 ON
THE SOUTH END OF THE SHOWERY AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED AND GUSTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAS
VEGAS TO RATON, AND ALSO FROM RATON TO CLAYTON, ON THE EAST END OF
THE SHOWERY AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
TODAY ABOVE 9,000 FEET IN ELEVATION MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR
THE CO BORDER, WHERE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN
AREAS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK KEEPS THE
FLOW ALOFT STRONG OVER NM, AND A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
PERSISTS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL TODAY AND TUESDAY, AND THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. AFTER PEAK WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH TODAY, PEAK WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD REACH AROUND 45 MPH FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD. IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ON WEDNESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL
WEAKEN, WHILE REMAINING SEASONABLY GUSTY. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 41 66 37 / 60 20 0 0
DULCE........................... 59 28 62 26 / 70 40 20 0
CUBA............................ 64 33 64 30 / 50 20 10 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 28 63 26 / 20 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 30 62 30 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 66 28 67 28 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 64 29 67 30 / 5 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 69 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 32 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 67 28 70 30 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 73 33 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 52 27 54 23 / 70 40 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 38 65 38 / 40 10 10 0
PECOS........................... 67 33 64 34 / 20 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 33 60 32 / 40 30 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 55 25 55 24 / 40 30 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 24 56 22 / 40 20 10 0
TAOS............................ 64 30 64 26 / 40 30 10 0
MORA............................ 65 33 64 33 / 30 10 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 37 71 34 / 40 20 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 67 37 65 37 / 20 10 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 70 36 68 36 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 43 72 44 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 40 74 41 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 79 39 77 39 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 42 75 42 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 78 38 78 37 / 5 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 77 41 74 41 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 37 77 36 / 5 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 78 42 75 41 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 38 77 38 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 72 42 70 42 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 42 74 41 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 81 41 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 38 67 38 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 36 70 36 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 73 34 70 33 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 32 70 31 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 70 35 65 35 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 35 70 35 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 72 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 44 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 43 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 34 66 30 / 10 0 10 5
RATON........................... 70 35 69 31 / 10 5 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 72 38 72 32 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 36 66 35 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 78 44 75 36 / 5 0 5 5
ROY............................. 73 40 73 36 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 83 47 79 42 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 79 44 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 48 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 87 49 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 88 49 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 46 80 44 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 51 87 49 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 46 78 48 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 45 77 47 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104>106-109-123>126.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ221>224-226-229-232>234-239-240.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR NMZ205>208-212>215-219-220-225-227-228-230-231-235>238-241.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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