943
FXUS65 KABQ 011945
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET TODAY WILL CREATE SOME SLICK TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ROAD SPRAY AND PONDING OF WATER. SNOW WILL CAUSE
SLICK AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PASSES
OVER 9000 FEET.
- STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NM. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. SHOWERS
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT IN WESTERN NM WILL TAPER OFF AFTER THE
FRONT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NM. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM IS PROVIDING BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 0.1 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LIQUID AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES (~5 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW) ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. FINALLY,
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS OF AROUND 35 TO 55 MPH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING SHOULD
TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARLY AND WINDS
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. THE ONE EXCEPTION FOR WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EAST SLOPES WHERE 700
MB WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AT AROUND 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES TO
CRASH TO THE SURFACE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND LOCALIZED
NATURE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH, WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY'S SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING FROM AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75 TODAY TO
0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO 5 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. A 990 TO 995 MB SURFACE LEE
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN CO MIDDAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS IDAHO AND MONTANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT AND LITTLE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FROM TODAY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DEEP DAYTIME MIXING
TAPPING INTO 500 TO 700 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS. WINDS ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BUT
REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
EAST OVER WYOMING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER WYOMING THURSDAY NIGHT EJECTS EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL SEND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH FAR
NORTHEAST NM. THE FRONTS WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES TO THURSDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. DESPITE THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES, MUCH DRIER AIR BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DAY OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF
EASTERN NM FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS AND CAA BEHIND
THE FRONTS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT
WITH A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST
SLIDES EAST. MID RANGE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SURFACE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW BRINGING HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT WED APR 1 2026
A PACIFIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NM WITH RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
ICING, TURBULENCE, AND LLWS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW
WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS INCREASE AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC FRONT WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING WINDS THRU MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM
MOUNTAIN WAVES AMPLIFYING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS TONIGHT WHERE WESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
NM THROUGH SUNSET WILL HELP DAMPEN GRASS AND TIMBER FUELS AFTER
THE RECORD WARM AND DRY STRETCH THESE LAST FEW WEEKS. DRIER AIR
RETURNS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S SYSTEM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS, COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT AND ERCS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WILL ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. FOR THAT
REASON, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE STATE. MUCH DRIER AIR COMBINED WITH GUSTY WEST-
NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A 2ND CONSECUTIVE DAY
OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ALONG THE I- 40 CORRIDOR OF EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH HIGHER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL HELP LIMIT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRY STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 37 69 37 57 / 20 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 26 63 27 56 / 50 5 5 0
CUBA............................ 31 65 31 54 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 27 68 26 58 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 33 66 32 58 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 70 30 59 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 70 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 36 73 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 32 68 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 28 71 31 72 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 34 74 36 77 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 26 56 27 50 / 60 5 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 65 40 57 / 30 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 66 37 60 / 20 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 33 60 34 54 / 50 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 28 50 29 44 / 50 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 57 24 51 / 40 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 28 64 31 58 / 50 0 0 0
MORA............................ 34 65 35 59 / 30 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 35 73 37 64 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 37 67 39 59 / 30 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 35 71 38 62 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 74 45 64 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 76 42 66 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 39 79 42 69 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 77 44 66 / 10 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 37 79 39 71 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 78 43 66 / 10 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 79 38 69 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 78 42 67 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 78 40 69 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 72 45 61 / 10 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 77 43 65 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 41 81 44 77 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 67 41 59 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 70 42 60 / 10 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 37 71 39 62 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 72 37 64 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 68 38 61 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 36 70 39 64 / 10 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 70 41 65 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 41 72 45 72 / 20 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 40 67 45 67 / 20 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 33 69 34 62 / 5 0 0 5
RATON........................... 34 71 34 64 / 10 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 36 74 37 67 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 36 68 39 64 / 10 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 76 45 70 / 10 0 0 5
ROY............................. 38 74 40 69 / 10 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 43 82 47 78 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 78 46 72 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 46 83 50 79 / 20 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 48 81 49 80 / 20 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 47 82 47 82 / 20 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 44 82 45 79 / 20 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 46 84 49 84 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 41 80 46 80 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 38 77 45 80 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ223-226>233-238-
239.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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