400
FXUS65 KABQ 252355 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL ON SUNDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN
GUSTS WILL COMMONLY REACH 45 TO 55 MPH, EXCEPT AROUND 60 MPH
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE IN DUST PRONE AREAS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD, AND OVER WEST CENTRAL AREAS, WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WITH HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS, BLOWING
DUST, AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF SOCAL WILL OPEN UP AND ACCELERATE
EAST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS ON SUNDAY, THEN SKIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE THE STORY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM ORIENTS
OVER NM AND WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 120KTS AT 300MB. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALREADY MATERIALIZING THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT
FOR BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM.
MUCH STRONGER WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MOST
OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. OTHER AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A
WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY. THE SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METROS
ARE POTENTIAL ADD CANDIDATES FOR THE ADVISORY, WITH FORECAST
SPEEDS CURRENTLY JUST SHY OF CRITERIA. BLOWING DUST IS LIKELY IN
THE RGV AND THE STRONGER SPEEDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NM WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AT LEAST PRODUCE PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY LIMITATIONS IN DUST
PRONE AREAS. DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND ROSWELL IS FORECAST TO HIT A HIGH OF 90
DEGREES SUNDAY. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NM, BUT QPF CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF WETTING (>0.10") PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE
TUSAS MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE
9KFT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
THE JET STREAM WILL WEAKEN, BUT REMAIN ORIENTED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON MONDAY, RESULTING IN MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS GIVEN DAYTIME MIXING. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH MORE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND RAMP-UP THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
ALL SHOW THE PACIFIC LOW IMPACTING OUR AREA ON THU/FRI, BUT DIFFER
IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A PRECEDING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WET FROM RUN- TO-RUN, SIGNALING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. THE LATEST
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE PWAT INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.70-0.80"
THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF VIRGA ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM ARE CREATING LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45KT AND AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM BUT LOWER AND PERSIST IN THE AREA
FROM NEAR FARMINGTON INTO THE NORTHERN MTS. THERE IS A 10-20%
CHANCE THAT CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 3,000FT OVER NORTHWEST NM. THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO WIDESPREAD STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PERHAPS
AREAS OF BLDU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL EXCEED 40KT AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS >50KT IN THE AREA FROM
NEAR LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS AND RUIDOSO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2026
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ON THU/FRI AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AND PACIFIC LOW
IMPACT NM. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IMPACTING MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM, BUT A MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY AS THE JET
STREAM MOVES OVER THE STATE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
MATERIALIZE. AREAS OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING ERCS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT
SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWN RELATIVE TO SUNDAY AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO EASTERN NM. MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ON TUESDAY AND ONE MORE ROUND OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FAVORING EASTERN AREAS. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC
LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 65 38 65 / 40 50 20 5
DULCE........................... 37 59 34 59 / 60 70 30 20
CUBA............................ 38 64 33 61 / 20 30 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 36 63 30 64 / 10 20 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 62 32 62 / 10 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 67 32 66 / 10 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 40 65 32 66 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 45 71 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 40 65 34 65 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 38 68 30 68 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 73 34 72 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 53 31 53 / 70 80 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 65 40 62 / 20 30 5 5
PECOS........................... 39 67 34 63 / 20 20 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 39 58 36 58 / 30 50 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 33 49 29 49 / 30 60 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 57 27 55 / 30 40 10 5
TAOS............................ 36 63 33 63 / 30 40 10 5
MORA............................ 39 65 34 63 / 10 20 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 43 72 39 69 / 20 30 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 43 67 37 64 / 20 20 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 71 37 67 / 20 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 74 45 70 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 75 44 72 / 10 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 78 42 74 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 75 43 72 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 44 79 41 76 / 5 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 76 42 72 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 78 39 75 / 5 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 47 76 42 72 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 78 39 75 / 5 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 73 44 69 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 75 43 72 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 49 81 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 68 41 65 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 45 71 41 67 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 72 39 67 / 10 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 74 32 69 / 10 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 42 69 35 65 / 10 5 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 44 72 38 69 / 10 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 72 38 69 / 10 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 53 76 46 73 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 37 68 34 67 / 10 10 0 10
RATON........................... 37 71 36 70 / 10 10 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 40 73 38 72 / 5 10 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 69 37 66 / 10 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 78 43 74 / 10 10 0 5
ROY............................. 44 74 41 72 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 84 48 79 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 45 81 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 86 49 81 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 50 86 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 49 88 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 85 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 55 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 52 81 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 50 77 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ104>106-
109-123>126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ212>215-221-
222-225-227-228-230>232-234>238.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ223-224-
226-229-233-239-240.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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