594
FXUS65 KABQ 072349 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
- SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
LOWER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OR RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- MINOR TO MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS, INCLUDING SLICK AND ICY ROADS
AND LOW VISIBILITY, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY.
- THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE HOUSING OR HEATING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
TWO SHOTS OF WINTER SYSTEMS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS THE
MAIN STORY OF TODAY'S FORECAST. THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE
FIRST STORM WITH THE LONG TERM FEATURING THE SECOND.
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE FIRST STORM IS EVIDENT OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AS A CLOUD SHIELD BUILDS OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER.
THE STORM IS MOST LIKELY TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK ACROSS NM
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM ENTERS NM, THE 700MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO DROP DOWN TO -2C TO
-4C ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THIS CORRELATES TO SNOW
LEVELS STARTING OUT AROUND 7,000-8,000FT FOR MANY LOCATIONS. LIGHT
SNOWFALL APPEARS TO BE GETTING STARTED IN SOUTHWEST NM AS OF 1PM,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION (AND OF THE
OVERALL FLOW REGIME), OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOWFALL IS FAVORED FOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY WHITEWATER
BALDY PEAK IN THE MOGOLLON MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA BLANCA PEAK IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. OTHER HIGHER LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NM ARE
FAVORED FOR OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL AS WELL, AND THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN ON TRACK. FOR
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ZONE (INCLUDING RUIDOSO), THE DECISION
WAS MADE TO KEEP A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING, GIVEN THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE
9,000-10,000FT, WHICH SITS ABOVE MOST POPULATION AREAS. RUIDOSO
PROPER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SEE LOW-END ADVISORY CRITERIA (2-
4"). ELSEWHERE, 6-12" IS EXPECTED IN WARNING AREAS WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS AT HIGHER PEAKS.
PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THUS BEGINNING THE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SNOWFALL RATES MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS SOME SOUTHERN HIGH PEAKS
GIVEN DISPLACEMENT FROM THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC LIFT, THOUGH STILL
EXPECTING CONSISTENT SNOWFALL THROUGHOUT THIS FIRST SYSTEM. WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE ADDED THE GLORIETA MESA TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ALONG I-25. ALL OTHER WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
AS SYSTEM #1 MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY, IN ITS WAKE IT
LEAVES STIFF 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
EASTERN NM, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ARE FAVORED IN THE NORMAL WIND
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS) AND
GUADALUPE COUNTY FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THIS
EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTH TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY BEGINS TO SEE GUSTY WINDS ALONG ITS PORTION OF THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55MPH. FOR ALL LOCATIONS
ABOVE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
AS THE STIFF WESTERLIES CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY,
OROGRAPHIC PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. AS THIS SITS IN
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGH TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING DOMINATES, WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS PAVES THE WAY FOR SYSTEM #2
TO APPROACH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
SYSTEM #2 APPROACHES FROM A DIFFERENT DIRECTION, THIS TIME FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IT IS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL POLAR JET DIVING DOWN AND
DELIVERING A WELL DEFINED TROUGH TO THE AREA. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPER (I.E. LOWER PRESSURE HEIGHTS) THAN SYSTEM
#1, AND IT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE INTO NM
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THAT THIS LOW WILL BE DEEPER THAN
THE FIRST, THE CORE OF THIS LOW WILL ALSO BE COLDER. 700MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO -8C TO -10C, MUCH COLDER THAN THE FIRST SYSTEM.
WITH THAT, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TO 4,000-5,000FT AS
THIS SECOND STORM MOVES THROUGH. WESTERN NM AND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, SPECIFICALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE LIKELY TO BEAR
THE BRUNT OF THIS LOW WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED
ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS, DUE TO SYNOPTIC AND OROGRAPHIC FACTORS.
SEVERITY OF SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM SYSTEM #2 IS A
TOUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE DRAGGED THE PATH OF
THIS LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW LONG THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS REMAIN IN A PROMISING COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC
FORCING AND SYNOPTIC LIFT. AT MOST THOUGH, THIS WOULD GENERALLY JUST
AFFECT THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON TRACK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE. PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN NM BEGINS TO TAPER OFF BY
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE EAST.
STORM #2'S SECOND IMPACT IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NM
EARLY TO MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME
RATHER STACKED OVER THIS AREA WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING. THUS, A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM EAST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM AND INTO SOUTHEAST CO.
CONCURRENTLY, STRONG CURVATURE VORTICITY INFLUENCING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROWAL, ALONGSIDE OF SUFFICIENT FRONTOGENESIS, IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY ACROSS THE SAME AREA OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT. WITH THAT, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW (UP TO 6") IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, AND THUS
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ANOTHER PIECE
TO THIS WATCH IS THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH
SNOW FALLING AND POSSIBLY ALREADY ON THE GROUND, AND GIVEN THE
FLATTER TERRAIN IN UNION AND COLFAX COUNTY, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROAD CLOSURES, ARE POSSIBLE FOR I-25 NEAR RATON
AND US 64/87 FROM RATON TO CLAYTON. SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN
THE PREVIOUS MENTION OF THE SOUTHERN TREND OF THE STORM, WHICH MAY
LESSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO
HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF MINOR TO MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS.
ONE LAST POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACT FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BRING IS THE
CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS EASTERN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE LIFTING AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
MOIST, THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SNOW SQUALL OR TWO, WHICH
MAY IMPACT I-40. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS LIGHTING UP MUCH
GREATER THAN 1 ACROSS THAT AREA (SIMILAR TO THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
PARAMETER, WHERE GREATER THAN 1 INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT),
GIVING A BOOST IN CONFIDENCE. FOLKS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL
IF THEY ARE DRIVING IN EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT, AND IT
BECOMES REPLACED BY THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR.
WIDESPREAD TEENS TO SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE FAVORED, WITH VALLEY
LOCATIONS DIPPING BELOW 0. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THROUGH
THIS TIME, DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR SUB 0 WIND CHILLS. AS IT
STANDS NOW, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAIN REGIONS, BUT WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS PULL THE TRIGGER ON
THOSE.
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. A BATCH OF SHOWERS HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NM AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BELOW 6,500 FEET, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN
6,500 AND 8,000 FEET, AND ALL SNOW ABOVE 8,000 FEET. LOW CIGS WILL
BE MORE PERSISTENT IN WESTERN AREAS, WITH MORE INTERMITTENT
REDUCTIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PRECIPITATION
DECREASES IN COVERAGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, THEN INCREASES AGAIN
AFTER 18Z AS ANOTHER, COLDER STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING STRONGER
AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WHEN GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 KTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAY BRING ABOUT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONDITIONS, BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION.
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS ABOVE 8,000-
9,000FT IN THE WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE,
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD BENEFIT TO THE FUELS.
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW EQUATING TO BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY. AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS,
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS, VENTILATION REMAINS VERY GOOD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK (SPECIFICALLY THURSDAY) BEFORE
DECREASING TO POOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 32 45 23 37 / 50 70 50 10
DULCE........................... 26 41 17 38 / 60 80 70 50
CUBA............................ 28 40 17 31 / 80 80 70 50
GALLUP.......................... 28 39 14 31 / 80 80 70 10
EL MORRO........................ 29 38 15 31 / 90 80 70 20
GRANTS.......................... 27 43 16 34 / 80 60 70 20
QUEMADO......................... 29 41 16 28 / 90 70 60 20
MAGDALENA....................... 32 46 23 35 / 90 30 50 20
DATIL........................... 29 40 17 28 / 90 40 80 10
RESERVE......................... 28 44 14 37 / 90 80 70 20
GLENWOOD........................ 31 48 19 44 / 90 90 70 20
CHAMA........................... 23 34 14 32 / 50 70 70 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 30 40 23 31 / 70 60 70 60
PECOS........................... 28 41 20 33 / 70 50 80 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 39 20 31 / 30 40 60 70
RED RIVER....................... 22 30 14 23 / 40 40 70 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... 22 36 11 28 / 40 30 80 80
TAOS............................ 26 42 20 35 / 50 40 70 70
MORA............................ 27 44 18 32 / 50 30 70 70
ESPANOLA........................ 29 48 24 39 / 70 60 70 60
SANTA FE........................ 30 41 23 33 / 70 50 80 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 30 44 23 35 / 70 50 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 36 47 28 37 / 90 60 70 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 50 28 39 / 90 50 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 35 53 28 42 / 80 50 60 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 51 28 40 / 80 60 60 40
BELEN........................... 34 53 28 42 / 90 50 60 40
BERNALILLO...................... 35 51 28 40 / 80 60 60 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 33 52 27 42 / 90 50 60 40
CORRALES........................ 35 52 28 41 / 80 60 60 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 34 52 28 42 / 90 50 60 40
PLACITAS........................ 35 46 27 36 / 80 60 70 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 51 28 39 / 80 60 60 40
SOCORRO......................... 35 56 29 45 / 100 40 50 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 42 23 32 / 90 60 70 60
TIJERAS......................... 33 44 24 33 / 90 60 70 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 45 24 33 / 90 50 60 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 46 22 34 / 80 50 60 60
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 43 22 30 / 80 30 60 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 32 46 23 34 / 90 50 60 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 46 24 35 / 90 40 60 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 49 27 40 / 100 40 50 30
RUIDOSO......................... 33 42 24 34 / 90 30 70 30
CAPULIN......................... 28 46 18 27 / 20 10 70 80
RATON........................... 27 50 21 31 / 20 10 70 80
SPRINGER........................ 30 52 23 34 / 10 0 40 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 47 21 32 / 50 10 60 70
CLAYTON......................... 37 55 25 33 / 30 5 60 80
ROY............................. 33 53 25 34 / 40 5 50 70
CONCHAS......................... 38 60 28 41 / 70 5 50 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 38 54 29 39 / 80 5 50 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 40 62 28 40 / 80 0 50 70
CLOVIS.......................... 40 59 31 41 / 90 5 30 40
PORTALES........................ 41 61 31 44 / 90 5 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 59 30 42 / 90 5 30 60
ROSWELL......................... 40 64 34 50 / 80 0 10 20
PICACHO......................... 39 56 30 44 / 70 5 20 20
ELK............................. 35 54 26 43 / 80 10 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ227-230.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ202-206-208.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR NMZ205-226.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR NMZ203-210-211-213-214-221.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ223-233-239.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR NMZ212.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16
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