293
FXUS65 KABQ 301747
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
POLO'S REMNANT MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE COME MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
MOVES INTO WESTERN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE (PWATS
0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES) ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 60. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM
WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESIDE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHEAST NM COULD RESULT IN MORE FLOODING. A MODERATE RISK (40%
CHANCE WITHIN 25 MILES) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM. EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY DUE TO A DRYSLOT MOVING OVER THESE AREAS AHEAD AND SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S WITH 70S ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THIS PART OF THE STATE
SEEING MORE SUNSHINE.
SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THIS PART OF THE STATE.
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN SOME FOG ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EARLY
TO MID THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NM BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM BUT COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST CANYON
WIND ACROSS EASTERN SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE AND CARRIZOZO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND LINGERING TROUGHING ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
A 590 TO 592 DAM HIGH AT 500 MB OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
MOVES EAST TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SPLENDID 1ST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS, EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUNDS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED LOW
CENTERED AROUND KGUP AS OF 18Z. THIS LOW WILL TREK EASTWARD TODAY,
REACHING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AROUND 09Z TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE, ALTHOUGH BRIEF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF
I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. AS A RESULT, MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL BE
MORE PERSISTENT IN NORTHERN NM AND RATHER BRIEF IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE NBM IS TRYING TO BRING PERSISTENT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR PERSISTENT
LOW CIGS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT, LINGERING IN NORTHEAST AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A STRONG NORTH BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NM EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, SPREADING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KROW BY LATE
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 49 73 51 / 100 40 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 40 73 39 / 100 50 0 0
CUBA............................ 56 43 67 44 / 100 50 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 42 69 44 / 70 30 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 41 67 42 / 60 20 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 44 67 44 / 50 30 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 45 67 44 / 50 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 46 64 47 / 40 5 10 20
DATIL........................... 56 43 62 43 / 30 5 0 10
RESERVE......................... 63 45 75 46 / 40 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 47 79 51 / 40 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 51 40 64 40 / 100 70 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 46 63 44 / 90 70 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 43 66 40 / 90 60 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 41 61 38 / 100 100 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 35 52 35 / 100 100 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 35 56 34 / 100 100 20 0
TAOS............................ 56 41 63 41 / 100 100 0 0
MORA............................ 56 43 62 41 / 90 90 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 61 47 70 43 / 90 80 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 45 64 43 / 90 60 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 45 66 44 / 90 40 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 50 70 47 / 90 40 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 51 70 49 / 80 40 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 51 72 50 / 80 40 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 51 71 48 / 80 40 10 10
BELEN........................... 67 51 71 50 / 60 30 20 10
BERNALILLO...................... 66 51 72 47 / 90 40 10 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 50 72 48 / 70 30 10 10
CORRALES........................ 67 51 72 49 / 90 40 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 51 72 47 / 60 30 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 63 49 68 46 / 90 40 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 51 71 49 / 80 40 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 69 51 73 50 / 60 10 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 45 63 43 / 90 40 20 10
TIJERAS......................... 60 46 66 45 / 80 40 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 45 65 44 / 80 30 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 45 67 40 / 70 30 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 44 63 44 / 70 30 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 44 64 44 / 70 30 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 45 64 44 / 70 30 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 49 69 50 / 50 20 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 60 44 63 45 / 30 20 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 58 42 55 42 / 100 90 70 20
RATON........................... 61 44 61 44 / 100 90 50 5
SPRINGER........................ 64 47 64 41 / 100 90 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 44 62 42 / 80 70 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 51 63 50 / 90 90 50 20
ROY............................. 67 47 65 44 / 80 70 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 75 55 74 52 / 50 50 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 55 70 52 / 30 20 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 55 72 53 / 20 30 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 78 53 73 54 / 20 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 79 55 74 54 / 10 5 20 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 57 74 54 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 78 55 77 57 / 0 0 10 20
PICACHO......................... 73 50 72 51 / 0 0 20 30
ELK............................. 71 47 71 49 / 0 0 10 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ203-210-211-213>217-227-
228-230.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16
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