905
FXUS65 KABQ 051954
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
154 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 147 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE SPREADING ONTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
THE RISK OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING WILL TREND UP WITH DAILY
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RISE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. HEAT-ILLNESSES
WILL INCREASE FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THOUGH SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, AROUND 15-25KTS,
THERE IS AROUND 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS EASTERN NM. THUS, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, THANKS TO
BRIEF GAP WINDS LAST NIGHT, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS IN PLACE FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TUSAS, JEMEZ AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. THE
PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE STORMS IS LOWER, BUT
CHANCES FOR GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS REMAINS HIGH. FURTHER WEST
NEAR THE AZ BORDER, VIRGA AND SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL, BUT A DRY THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALL STORMS
SHOULD HAVE DIMINISHED OR MOVED INTO TEXAS BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
THANKS TO A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
HIGH AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD.
AS SUCH, MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE A TYPICAL MONSOON DAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST NM WILL
BE ON THE DRIER SIDE WHERE PWATS WILL BE LOWEST. OTHER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. ALL STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD GENERALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST, BUT STORM MOTIONS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE SLOW AND ERRATIC
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NM. ONCE AGAIN,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY END BY MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, EXCEPT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NM AND LESS QPF IS MODELED OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA. STORMS WILL AGAIN FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SPREAD ONTO ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. AS IT
LOOKS NOW, STORMS SHOULD FOCUS OVER CENTRAL NM TUESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE ABQ METRO
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT/ELONGATE WESTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NM
WHICH WILL KEEP ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THERE ON THE DRIER SIDE.
OTHERWISE, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RECYCLE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS
THAN ON TUESDAY. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON THURSDAY. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO WESTERN NM FRIDAY, BUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO PRESS INTO AT LEAST NE NM WHICH WILL INCREASE STORM
COVERAGE THERE. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AND SET UP OVER UT AND
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 600DAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT EXPECTED FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NM. DRIER AIR WILL ROTATE INTO NM OVER THE WEEKEND CAUSING STORM
CHANCES TO DWINDLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN NM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY
STORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50KT ACROSS EASTERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE STORMS ROLL
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE
MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SMOKE FROM THE ASPEN ACRES WILDFIRE IN
CO WILL SHIFT OVER NE NM, BUT THE SMOKE WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ALOFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS EASTERN
NM THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. SOME DRY
LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
NM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN TYPICAL MONSOON
FASHION. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS NORTHWEST NM WHERE
PWATS WILL BE LOWEST. STORMS WILL SHIFT OVER ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE A BIT BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EACH DAY, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE, THOUGH DRY STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. BY THURSDAY, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NW NM. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ON FRIDAY, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN NM, BUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NM WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THERE. STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWN NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 96 64 97 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 50 91 50 92 / 0 10 5 20
CUBA............................ 57 89 58 91 / 0 5 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 55 91 55 92 / 0 10 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 56 86 56 87 / 0 20 20 40
GRANTS.......................... 56 90 55 90 / 5 30 10 40
QUEMADO......................... 61 88 58 88 / 5 30 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 64 88 63 88 / 10 40 20 40
DATIL........................... 61 85 59 85 / 10 50 30 60
RESERVE......................... 57 92 54 92 / 5 60 30 60
GLENWOOD........................ 60 97 59 95 / 5 60 20 50
CHAMA........................... 48 84 49 85 / 0 10 5 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 86 62 87 / 10 30 10 50
PECOS........................... 55 89 56 89 / 10 30 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 86 56 86 / 0 10 5 60
RED RIVER....................... 44 76 48 77 / 0 20 10 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 79 44 80 / 5 30 5 70
TAOS............................ 52 89 54 89 / 0 10 5 50
MORA............................ 52 84 54 84 / 10 40 20 70
ESPANOLA........................ 60 95 61 94 / 0 10 5 30
SANTA FE........................ 60 89 61 89 / 5 10 10 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 92 59 91 / 5 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 94 67 94 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 96 68 95 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 97 65 97 / 5 5 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 95 67 96 / 5 5 10 20
BELEN........................... 64 98 63 98 / 5 10 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 64 97 66 97 / 5 5 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 97 62 97 / 0 5 10 10
CORRALES........................ 65 97 66 97 / 5 5 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 97 63 97 / 0 5 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 66 92 66 92 / 5 5 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 96 66 97 / 5 5 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 98 67 98 / 10 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 89 62 90 / 5 10 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 60 91 62 91 / 5 5 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 91 58 91 / 5 10 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 91 53 92 / 10 20 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 87 57 87 / 30 20 20 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 57 90 59 90 / 10 20 30 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 89 59 89 / 20 30 40 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 91 64 91 / 20 30 40 30
RUIDOSO......................... 57 82 58 83 / 30 50 30 40
CAPULIN......................... 53 86 56 87 / 10 30 20 40
RATON........................... 51 91 55 91 / 10 30 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 52 92 55 92 / 10 30 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 86 56 86 / 10 30 20 50
CLAYTON......................... 59 93 63 94 / 30 5 5 10
ROY............................. 56 89 60 90 / 10 10 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 60 97 65 97 / 20 5 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 93 63 94 / 10 20 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 96 68 98 / 60 5 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 62 93 66 96 / 60 0 5 5
PORTALES........................ 62 95 67 97 / 50 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 95 67 96 / 20 10 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 67 97 69 99 / 20 5 10 5
PICACHO......................... 61 91 63 93 / 20 20 20 20
ELK............................. 58 87 60 89 / 20 30 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page