677
FXUS65 KABQ 020544 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TONIGHT WITH BRIEFLY LOWER VISIBILITY. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
LIMIT VISIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WITH SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, HAVE CANCELLED THE
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS A FEW HOURS EARLY. WSW IS ALREADY OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW HAS OPENED UP AND IS EJECTING QUICKLY EAST INTO FAR
WEST TX AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SOUTH TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO CREATE AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A
ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING GENERATED CONVECTION HAS SPROUTED
ALONG/NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE
AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NM DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON,
WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TOWARD THE RGV AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOLD ONTO
THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, DESPITE A LACK OF CURRENT IMPACTS, WITH
CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE CAMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. GIVEN WET GROUNDS AND SUFFICIENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON LOCATION. THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER ON SATURDAY AND HELP TO GENERATE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS W/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, FAVORING
THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT WITH HIGHS
5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING WARMER CONDITIONS ON SUN/MON, BUT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAYTIME
HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME ON MONDAY AND
STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME MIXING TO PRODUCE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW, FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM WITH THE MID WEEK PACIFIC LOW. THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS
START TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER AIR
FEATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ALL AGREE ON A
WEAKENED AND DISPLACED JET STREAM, MEANING NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR LOW CIGS LINGERING SOUTH AND WEST OF KABQ
WILL TAPER OFF SLOWLY THRU SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE, PATCHY FOG AND IFR
LOW CIGS CURRENTLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO ERODE THRU SUNRISE. SHRA/TS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 11AM SATURDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS THRU 5PM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIGHT WITH BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS AND LCL GUSTY WINDS. CLEARING IS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, MAINLY DUE TO IMPROVING ERCS AND A LACK OF
DRYING WIND SYSTEMS. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL A ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED
WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS
WILL TREND UP AND HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AREAS WHERE ERCS
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW WILL BRING
BACK HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM GOING
THROUGH MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 71 41 75 / 10 5 0 5
DULCE........................... 26 66 30 70 / 40 20 5 10
CUBA............................ 31 62 34 68 / 50 30 10 20
GALLUP.......................... 33 67 33 73 / 20 20 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 36 60 35 69 / 50 30 10 20
GRANTS.......................... 33 63 32 71 / 60 30 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 39 62 37 69 / 40 30 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 40 59 41 68 / 60 30 20 20
DATIL........................... 38 57 37 65 / 60 60 20 20
RESERVE......................... 38 66 35 72 / 30 40 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 40 71 39 77 / 40 40 20 5
CHAMA........................... 25 58 29 63 / 60 20 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 36 58 41 66 / 60 30 10 10
PECOS........................... 28 59 34 67 / 60 30 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 58 33 64 / 70 20 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 20 48 27 55 / 70 20 10 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 53 22 61 / 90 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 26 61 29 68 / 80 20 10 10
MORA............................ 25 56 30 65 / 80 20 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 35 66 38 73 / 70 20 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 34 60 39 67 / 60 30 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 63 37 71 / 60 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 65 45 72 / 40 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 66 44 74 / 40 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 68 45 76 / 40 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 67 44 75 / 40 20 10 10
BELEN........................... 39 69 39 75 / 30 20 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 41 68 43 75 / 40 20 10 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 37 68 40 76 / 40 20 10 10
CORRALES........................ 41 68 43 76 / 40 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 68 40 75 / 40 20 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 40 64 43 71 / 40 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 41 67 44 75 / 40 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 44 68 44 76 / 60 30 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 60 40 67 / 50 30 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 36 61 40 69 / 40 30 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 32 61 35 69 / 40 20 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 28 63 29 71 / 40 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 58 36 67 / 20 20 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 60 36 68 / 40 30 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 59 37 67 / 30 40 20 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 60 43 68 / 40 40 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 38 52 38 63 / 40 60 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 25 60 33 68 / 30 10 5 5
RATON........................... 25 64 32 74 / 50 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 27 65 31 74 / 40 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 59 33 69 / 50 20 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 34 68 43 77 / 20 5 0 5
ROY............................. 31 63 37 72 / 30 10 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 36 69 40 79 / 20 10 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 64 39 74 / 20 10 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 71 43 81 / 20 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 38 68 43 76 / 20 5 5 0
PORTALES........................ 38 70 42 77 / 30 10 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 67 39 77 / 20 10 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 44 66 45 78 / 30 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 40 60 39 72 / 30 30 10 5
ELK............................. 36 57 36 71 / 40 30 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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