478
FXUS65 KABQ 141132
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
- THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL MOVE THROUGH
LATER TODAY, BRINGING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS, IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP WEST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY,
CREATING STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NV/AZ BORDER PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS RAPIDLY FILLING, WITH THE 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWING THE 500MB LOW AT 559DAM. THE UPPER LOW
IS MODELED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN CO TODAY AND CONTINUE
FILLING, WHILE PUSHING THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
EAST ACROSS NM. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRECIPITATION FORCED CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BRING GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE TX BORDER, MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF TUCUMCARI. THE LATEST NAM IS SHOWING IMPRESSIVE
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS OF NM LATER TODAY, COMBINED WITH LIS OF -4 TO -5C AND
MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2,000J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW INITIATION
ALONG/NEAR THE TX BORDER, SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON OUR SIDE OF THE BORDER MOVE QUICKLY
EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING THE 1ST FREEZE OF THE SEASON TO THE UPPER
RGV, WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. TONIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN NM.
THE DEPARTING AND WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BAGGY
TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO A 2ND UPPER LOW AND
RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST ACROSS AZ THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE WEST ACROSS NM, RESULTING
IN A STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER
TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE 00Z NAM MOS IS SUPPORTIVE OF ADVISORY-TYPE
SPEEDS, BUT THE GFS MOS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY HITTING UP INTO
WARNING CRITERIA AT KABQ. THE NBM IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING-
TYPE SPEEDS, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV, SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM TO COVER
THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAY RESULT IN THE 1ST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FROM THE
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND ESTANCIA
VALLEY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FRI/SAT
BEHIND THE STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. A FREEZE WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR UNION AND HARDING COUNTIES. THE
RETROGRADING UPPER LOW WILL PULL UP STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY, STEERING MOISTURE AROUND IT'S BROAD
CIRCULATION INTO AZ AND WESTERN NM WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS MODELED TO FILL AN LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW WILL GATHER OFFSHORE OF CA TUE/WED AND MAY BRING A ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION TO NM WED/THU.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
DETERIORATION TO IFR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KFMN AND KGUP,
WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NM. LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS EXIST AT KROW THOUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WEST OR
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DELIVER THE FIRST NOTABLE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON
TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR
EASTERN NM. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG EAST WINDS TO MUCH
OF THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS. VENT RATES WILL
GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT TAKE A
DIP AND BE POOR OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAKES FOR STUBBORN NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 54 35 61 40 / 50 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 28 63 28 / 90 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 56 31 61 33 / 60 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 27 57 33 / 20 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 26 60 34 / 30 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 30 61 36 / 20 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 30 64 36 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 67 38 62 39 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 31 61 35 / 5 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 66 33 71 39 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 38 76 44 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 26 55 28 / 90 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 35 60 37 / 30 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 63 36 64 33 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 31 59 28 / 60 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 24 50 21 / 50 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 19 55 19 / 20 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 60 29 61 28 / 40 0 0 0
MORA............................ 62 32 59 27 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 67 36 68 37 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 38 64 35 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 36 65 35 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 43 71 43 / 20 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 42 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 42 74 45 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 42 71 44 / 20 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 75 42 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 71 41 72 43 / 20 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 41 73 43 / 10 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 41 73 43 / 20 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 74 42 73 44 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 68 42 69 42 / 20 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 41 71 43 / 20 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 78 45 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 36 63 36 / 20 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 65 38 66 38 / 20 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 36 65 36 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 34 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 66 38 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 68 36 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 37 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 45 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 41 67 35 / 0 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 62 37 52 29 / 20 10 5 10
RATON........................... 67 35 58 31 / 10 10 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 70 35 62 32 / 5 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 65 36 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 66 47 62 35 / 40 20 0 0
ROY............................. 69 41 63 35 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 80 48 72 43 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 47 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 51 73 44 / 20 5 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 83 53 74 44 / 30 10 0 5
PORTALES........................ 83 54 75 45 / 30 5 5 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 51 74 45 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 87 54 79 49 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 81 47 74 40 / 0 0 0 10
ELK............................. 78 45 74 37 / 0 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ219-220-224-225.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ216.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ222-223-228-229.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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