649
FXUS65 KABQ 081211 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
611 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
- HIGHER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE IN RIVERS, CREEKS, ARROYOS, AND WATER
LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. RECENT HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MELT WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTENSIFYING THE
RUNOFF THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY FAVORING THE HIGH
TERRAIN.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AREAWIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WHEN THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS WEST OF NM, A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.30"
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY COMMON OVER NORTH CENTRAL AREAS, AND ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
NEAR A HALF INCH OR MORE ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS,
AND ALSO IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WHERE RAIN WILL FALL ON
RECENT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH A RISK OF HAZARDOUS RUNOFF.
ALTHOUGH THE BURN SCAR COMPLEX IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS IS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE RAIN TODAY, THE HREF ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM PRECIP
ONLY APPROACHES 0.50" WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MUCH LESS THAN
THAT. OTHER MODELS GENERALLY AGREE, SO WHILE THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THOSE BURN SCARS, THE PROBABILITY
IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY, WITH NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEING FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
READINGS LOOK TO REACH 30-YEAR AVERAGES ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER
OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE READINGS ALONG THE EASTERN
BORDER VARY AROUND 5-11 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF NM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL
RECYCLE UNDER THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, WHEN A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE RIDGE LOOKS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE WESTERN US DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK STEERING DRY AIR OVER NM. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING MONDAY, THEN STEER THE JET STREAM OVER OUR STATE ON
TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING STRONG FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO PLUMMET WITH WIND
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BEGINNING IN THE WEST MONDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY WHEN WIND GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN MANY LOCATIONS. WIND AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL PROBABLY LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CROSS
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
30-YEAR AVERAGES MOST PLACES ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL MID MORNING AROUND ANGEL FIRE AND EAGLE NEST, AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS FROM DULCE AND CHAMA SOUTHWARD
TO NEAR CUBA. THIS AFTERNOON, A DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS, WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED-
TO-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED-TO-ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORM
MOTION TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT
SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 KT. STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
COOL TEMPERATURES AND WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AND WINDIER WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS STARTING IN THE
WEST MONDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD TUESDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY
LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET. A GUSTY PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS
TO BE MONDAY, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 43 77 48 / 20 5 5 10
DULCE........................... 65 30 73 35 / 60 20 30 20
CUBA............................ 63 36 69 40 / 40 10 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 69 33 75 37 / 20 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 64 38 70 42 / 30 5 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 67 35 73 39 / 30 5 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 68 38 73 42 / 20 5 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 66 43 71 46 / 50 20 10 5
DATIL........................... 65 40 69 42 / 50 10 10 5
RESERVE......................... 74 37 80 39 / 20 5 10 5
GLENWOOD........................ 80 43 83 45 / 10 0 10 0
CHAMA........................... 58 31 66 34 / 60 20 40 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 43 67 45 / 60 10 50 10
PECOS........................... 60 38 64 40 / 70 20 40 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 35 66 37 / 60 10 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 48 28 55 30 / 70 10 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 25 60 27 / 70 10 30 10
TAOS............................ 61 31 69 34 / 60 10 20 10
MORA............................ 55 32 64 33 / 70 20 40 10
ESPANOLA........................ 68 40 74 43 / 60 10 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 42 66 43 / 70 10 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 65 40 70 42 / 60 10 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 70 49 74 50 / 30 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 72 46 76 49 / 30 10 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 45 79 48 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 47 77 50 / 30 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 75 43 78 45 / 30 20 10 5
BERNALILLO...................... 72 45 77 48 / 30 10 20 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 74 42 78 45 / 20 20 10 5
CORRALES........................ 73 45 78 48 / 30 10 20 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 74 44 78 47 / 20 20 10 5
PLACITAS........................ 68 47 73 49 / 30 10 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 46 77 49 / 30 10 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 76 48 80 50 / 40 20 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 41 69 43 / 40 10 30 10
TIJERAS......................... 66 43 70 45 / 40 10 20 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 38 70 40 / 40 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 34 71 34 / 40 20 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 38 64 39 / 50 20 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 67 39 70 39 / 40 20 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 67 38 69 39 / 40 20 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 71 46 74 45 / 50 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 62 41 65 40 / 60 30 30 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 34 63 37 / 50 5 5 0
RATON........................... 62 35 69 37 / 60 5 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 35 69 37 / 60 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 35 66 37 / 70 20 30 10
CLAYTON......................... 64 42 69 42 / 20 10 0 0
ROY............................. 61 38 66 40 / 60 10 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 43 71 45 / 50 20 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 43 69 43 / 50 30 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 45 70 45 / 30 20 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 48 70 46 / 30 20 5 0
PORTALES........................ 71 47 71 45 / 30 20 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 46 71 45 / 40 30 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 74 52 76 52 / 30 30 10 0
PICACHO......................... 70 45 71 44 / 60 30 20 0
ELK............................. 68 42 71 42 / 50 30 20 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ214-
215.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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