511
FXUS65 KABQ 132004
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
204 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
- STRONG AND GUSTY SPRING WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN RETURN TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS EACH DAY ACROSS EASTERN NM. HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS
WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH ALSO RETURN TO NEW MEXICO
SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THEN RETURN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MANY AREAS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EARLY BLOOMING
PLANTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA SHOWERS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOCAL. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND, AND
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WETTING
PRECIPITATION REMAINS UNLIKELY THROUGH SUNSET. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 8500 FEET, SO A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS AND A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY
AS IT CROSSES SE UT AND MOVES INTO CO. AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES SE UT
TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF, THEN STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON TUESDAY THAN
THEY ARE TODAY AREAWIDE. NORTHEAST NM WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS TO NEAR 995-998MB ACROSS SE CO AND SOME OF
THE H7 FLOW OF 35 TO 40KT MIXES TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY, THUS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
NE NM BETWEEN NOON AND 7PM. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL FALL A
FEW DEGREES FROM TODAY'S READINGS, THANKS TO A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTN.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
A WEAK TROUGH, LOOSELY ATTENDANT TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW, WILL CROSS
NM ON WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM, BUT FAR LIGHTER THAN TODAY OR TUESDAY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN UT FROM
THE PACNW ON THURSDAY BEFORE CROSSING CO ON FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, H7 WINDS WILL BE NEAR 30KT, BUT MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL APPROACH H5 WHERE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 40-45KT. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT AREAWIDE, THOUGH LIKELY SHY OF ANY
WIND ADVISORIES. THAT WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER. AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES CO, THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS SQUARELY OVER
NM. IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THAT MORNING AS H7 WINDS
APPROACH 50KT, DAYTIME MIXING AND A PACIFIC FRONT WILL BRING
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST AREAS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FELT ACROSS NORTHERN NM, AND PROVIDED THE TIMING REMAINS THE SAME,
THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY VERY WELL BE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINFALL WILL HAVE EVAPORATED AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
ONCE THE WINDS RELAX FRIDAY NIGHT, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING, WITH HARD FREEZES POSSIBLE AND MANY NORTHERN AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS. EVEN PORTIONS OF THE ABQ METRO WILL GET CLOSE TO
FREEZING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SEEP BACK INTO NM ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR,
YET.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON APR 13 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING AND THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MEANWHILE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL AREAS, LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
REACH 35KT. OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS, BUT ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
NM TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LATTER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AROUND KGUP AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM MDT MON APR 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SEVERAL DAYS
THIS WEEK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING AREAWIDE, BUT THE LOWEST RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THE RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS COLFAX AND
UNION COUNTIES RECEIVED NEAR OR LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND THIS MOISTURE HAS LIKELY ALREADY EVAPORATED IN
THE FINE FUELS. ON TUESDAY, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN NM. SOME AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL NM RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECENTLY (MAINLY
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES), SO ERCS ARE QUITE A BIT MORE
MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. NONETHELESS, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE THE
FINAL CALL ON WHICH ZONES TO UPGRADE. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND CLINES CORNERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
STRONGER WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT NEARLY AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, BUT THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN NM. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR
6 TO 10 HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. BY
THIS TIME, ANY MOISTURE THAT FELL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT, THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY
FOR EASTERN NM. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY, WITH
GUSTS TOPPING 50 MPH FOR MANY AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-40. IN
FACT, FRIDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE WEEK.
RH VALUES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT
SUB-15% WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY. QUIETER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 59 31 66 / 70 40 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 54 20 61 / 80 70 0 10
CUBA............................ 35 56 27 60 / 60 40 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 32 57 23 63 / 50 40 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 55 27 60 / 40 20 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 34 60 25 65 / 30 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 60 29 62 / 20 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 65 35 65 / 10 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 40 59 30 61 / 10 5 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 65 26 68 / 40 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 69 30 73 / 50 10 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 48 21 53 / 90 70 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 57 36 60 / 60 30 5 5
PECOS........................... 37 60 30 61 / 50 10 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 36 54 28 57 / 60 30 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 31 44 23 47 / 60 40 5 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 52 20 54 / 50 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 34 58 25 61 / 60 30 5 10
MORA............................ 36 59 29 60 / 30 10 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 41 65 32 67 / 50 30 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 41 60 35 61 / 50 20 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 63 32 64 / 50 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 48 68 40 68 / 40 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 69 42 69 / 40 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 71 37 71 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 69 39 69 / 40 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 44 73 34 72 / 30 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 70 39 70 / 40 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 43 72 32 71 / 30 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 47 71 39 70 / 40 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 43 71 35 71 / 30 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 65 39 65 / 50 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 69 39 70 / 40 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 77 40 74 / 20 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 44 63 36 62 / 50 10 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 64 37 64 / 50 10 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 42 66 33 64 / 40 10 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 38 68 29 66 / 40 5 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 64 33 62 / 20 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 67 33 65 / 30 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 43 66 35 65 / 20 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 50 69 40 67 / 20 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 46 63 38 62 / 20 5 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 64 29 61 / 5 0 0 10
RATON........................... 36 66 29 66 / 5 0 0 10
SPRINGER........................ 37 69 30 68 / 5 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 64 31 64 / 20 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 48 73 40 70 / 0 0 5 5
ROY............................. 44 69 35 67 / 5 0 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 48 78 38 76 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 74 39 71 / 10 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 81 42 77 / 5 5 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 80 46 76 / 0 5 10 0
PORTALES........................ 51 81 45 77 / 0 10 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 78 41 76 / 5 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 83 47 80 / 0 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 49 75 41 72 / 5 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 73 38 70 / 5 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR NMZ227>231.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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