999
FXUS65 KABQ 112320
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY
THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE PEAK GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WILL DEVELOP.
- LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE COMMON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
NEW MEXICO REMAINS ENTRENCHED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING SYNOPTIC
TROUGHING PATTERN DOWN THE PACIFIC COASTLINE AND THE WESTERN TIER OF
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND EASTERN MEXICO.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW HAS BROUGHT IN A DRYSLOT PUNCHING IN BEHIND
THE WAKE OF TC RACHEL'S REMNANTS TO AZ, EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD
OVER NM THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR ALOFT, THERE REMAINS
ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, HIGHLIGHTED BY TD'S IN THE 40S AND
50S THROUGH EASTERN AZ AND INTO NM. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR THE
OBSERVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TAPPING INTO MODEST INSTABILITY OF 250-750 J/KG OF SBCAPE
OVER THE AREA AND STRONG SHEAR, EXPANDING OVER WESTERN NM AND
REACHING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM SOCORRO TO ABQ AND THEN
SANTA FE AND LOS ALAMOS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THRU THE EVENING.
THESE WILL BE FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS, BUT WILL THREATEN STRONG
AND ERRATIC GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH.
SPEAKING OF WIND GUSTS, STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS HAVE
ALREADY PICKED UP AND ARE OUTPERFORMING GUIDANCE AT GALLUP. RECENT
OBSERVED GUSTS THERE HAVE PROMPTED THE HOISTING OF WIND ADVISORIES
ALONG THE AZ BORDER FROM THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
GALLUP TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS IN CATRON COUNTY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS
WILL ALSO SPREAD THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOST AREAS SEE WINDS SUBSIDE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
TONIGHT ALSO LOOK TO INCREASED SHARPLY ALONG THE JOHNSON/BARTLETT
MESAS NEAR RATON PASS AS A STRONG H7 JET CROSSES THE AREA. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED WINDS HERE LOOKED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT THE
ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY SEES THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL FINALLY GET EJECTED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH CLOSING
OFF A LOW OVER NORTHERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR, WITH AN ATTENDANT
VORTLOBE SPINNING AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER SOUTHERN CA.
THIS VORTLOBE FEATURE WILL ACT TO BRING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERALL SW/NE FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED
TO AZ AND UT MONDAY, SHIFTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BACK
THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN OVER NM
WITH THE AIDE OF ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN CO. BUT OVERALL WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A STEP WEAKER
RELATIVE TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWERS SPREADING BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY BEGINS THE LONG TERM WITH CONTINUED DRYSLOTTING OVER MUCH OF
NM, WITH SHOWERS STILL FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT CLOSED TO
THE H5 CLOSED LOW OVER UT. THIS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER VORTMAX ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE H5 LOW
THROUGH NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WEST TO
EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH ANY ATTENDANT SHOWERS FAVORING
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH A LIGHT SNOW DUSTING OR PERHAPS AN INCH
OR TWO ATOP THE HIGHEST PEAKS. A FALL CRISP WILL GREET MORNING GOERS
BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS POTENTIALLY SEEING
THEIR FIRST FREEZES OF THE SEASON.
THEREAFTER, NUMERICAL MODEL AND AI MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF THE H5 LOW.
THE CORE PORTION OF THE H5 LOW LOOKS TO GET PICKED UP AND EJECTED
OUT BY THE POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WITH A SMALL
SECTION OF IT BEING PINCHED OFF OVER NORTHERN NM, CLOSING OFF AND
RETROGRADING WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN AZ BY THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS WILL YIELD A COLD FRONT BACKING SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NM, NOW FAVORED TO ADVANCE THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THRU TO WESTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. UNCERTAINTY ARISES REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE THERE WILL
BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE TX BIG BEND AND CAPROCK REGIONS.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NOW REGARDING TC SIMON'S
FORECAST TRACK, EITHER SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVING OFFSHORE, OR
HAVING ITS REMNANTS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NM FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON HOW THAT UNFOLDS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR CENTRAL
NM THIS EVENING, MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE NNE AT AROUND 30 KNOTS.
WHILE INTENSITY IS GENERALLY LACKING, THESE WILL BRIEFLY MIX DOWN
STRONGER WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
S/SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE
HANGING ON THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. LLWS IS LIKELY
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND AROUND THE
NORTHERN MTNS. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHWEST NM THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MONDAY, THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AROUND THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NM. HOWEVER, REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL ALSO BE THE RULE
THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO THE STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND MIXING.
TRANSPORT WINDS SWITCH NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BY THURSDAY BEHIND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT BACKING THRU EASTERN NM. THIS FRONT WILL
ADVANCE WESTWARD THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TO
WESTERN NM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASED
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN NM FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BUT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW MUCH OF AN
INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 72 51 66 / 20 10 40 60
DULCE........................... 41 66 40 62 / 80 40 40 60
CUBA............................ 46 68 45 65 / 30 10 5 10
GALLUP.......................... 44 68 44 63 / 30 10 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 42 67 41 63 / 30 10 5 10
GRANTS.......................... 46 71 45 68 / 20 5 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 46 68 45 66 / 20 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 50 72 49 71 / 20 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 46 67 43 65 / 20 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 69 46 67 / 60 20 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 52 73 50 72 / 60 30 20 20
CHAMA........................... 41 60 40 55 / 90 30 50 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 68 49 65 / 40 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 47 70 46 68 / 50 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 65 45 63 / 70 20 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 39 57 36 55 / 80 10 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 64 33 62 / 60 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 45 68 43 65 / 60 10 5 5
MORA............................ 44 70 41 68 / 40 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 50 75 49 73 / 40 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 70 49 68 / 60 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 72 48 70 / 40 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 77 56 76 / 30 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 78 54 77 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 80 54 79 / 30 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 78 55 77 / 30 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 54 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 79 54 77 / 30 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 56 80 54 78 / 30 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 80 52 79 / 20 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 75 55 74 / 30 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 79 54 77 / 30 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 82 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 70 48 68 / 30 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 72 50 70 / 30 5 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 73 48 71 / 30 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 75 46 74 / 20 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 71 50 70 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 72 49 70 / 20 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 76 57 75 / 40 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 71 50 69 / 40 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 73 49 72 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 47 77 44 75 / 20 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 48 79 46 77 / 10 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 72 48 70 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 77 53 76 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 86 60 85 / 20 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 82 57 80 / 20 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 87 62 86 / 20 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 88 62 86 / 10 0 10 5
PORTALES........................ 63 88 63 87 / 5 5 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 86 60 85 / 30 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 62 90 62 90 / 40 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 57 85 57 84 / 30 5 0 0
ELK............................. 55 82 55 81 / 30 0 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ202-205-206-208.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...16
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