213
FXUS65 KABQ 221120 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
420 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 416 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR AT RECORD LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VERY LIGHT WINDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP. SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE SO LOW (SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW 0 IN
MOST AREAS), TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM DROPPING
SIGNIFICANTLY. RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY
AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURE INCREASES AROUND THE
REGION. MOST AREAS WILL WARM 5-10 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY'S HIGHS,
WITH EVEN MORE DRAMATIC INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE STILL QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
BUT THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS WON'T DO MUCH TO STOP SOLAR RADIATION FROM
REACHING THE SURFACE. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHEN
TEMPS RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES AREAWIDE, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL).
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE WARMING TREND WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER MID-WEEK THANKS TO
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
CREATED FROM DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HEAT-UP THE EASTERN PLAINS,
SURGING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE LAST WEEK, BUT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
EASTWARD TO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL-ABOVE
AVERAGE IN ALL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS
SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SINCE THE FALL. FORECAST HIGHS RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S IN ALBUQUERQUE, WITH LOW TO MID-80S IN
ROSWELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WARM LATE INTO THE WEEK,
WITH PROBABILITIES OF 75F+ HIGHS RISING ABOVE 50% FOR THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ALREADY PALTRY SNOWPACK WILL NOT HAVE ANY
RELIEF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT
MELTING OUTSIDE OF THE VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS (10,000FT+). BOTH THE
GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW ABOVE NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH, SUGGESTING THE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN EASTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND,
LIKELY LONGER. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WARMING WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE,
PARTICULARLY MID TO LATE WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NM IN RESPONSE TO A
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS TURN TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST MID-WEEK AS STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPES ITSELF
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE WILL DROP HUMIDITIES, WITH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH,
THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN
NM. LREF PROBS ARE NOW SHOWING A 40-60% CHANCE OF RED FLAG CRITERIA
BEING MET IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SO A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THESE ZONES. WINDS INCREASE MORE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 24 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 15 55 17 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 50 22 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 14 62 19 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 25 61 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 55 19 64 21 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 24 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 53 29 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 53 26 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 24 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 26 72 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 17 50 20 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 28 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 52 23 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 20 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 17 47 23 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 7 53 15 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 17 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 54 23 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 57 22 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 26 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 24 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 34 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 29 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 57 29 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 24 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 58 29 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 25 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 58 28 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 24 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 30 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 29 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 29 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 52 30 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 26 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 16 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 23 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 25 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 29 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 53 27 60 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 50 19 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 53 16 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 15 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 21 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 53 24 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 52 20 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 23 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 55 23 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 25 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 26 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 23 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 22 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 24 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 55 25 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 25 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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