984
FXUS65 KABQ 260624
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1224 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
BRING SOAKING RAINS TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE (30-40%) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE SOUTH FORK, SALT AND SEVEN CABINS BURN SCARS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A WELCOME PATTERN SHIFT TO A COOLER, WETTER REGIME HAS GRACED NM
WITH ITS PRESENCE. THE PRIMARY CULPRIT IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
THAT WAS USHERED THROUGH AZ AND INTO NM VIA THE SUBTROPICAL JET.
THIS SET UP A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, AND
LAST EVENING'S PWAT WAS JUST SHY OF A DAILY RECORD AT 0.8 INCH. RAIN
HAS MORPHED INTO A HYBRID STRATIFORM AND SHOWERY MIX WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS, AND ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY LEFT WESTERN AREAS, FOCUSING OVER
CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAWN WITH JUST A FEW
STRAGGLING SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF DRIZZLE LINGERING INTO THE LATE
MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS LINGERING THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL HIGHLAND AREAS, BUT
PERHAPS ALSO IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS.
THE PRESENCE OF LOW STRATUS WOULD SEEM TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND STUNT INSOLATION LATER TODAY, BUT CAMS AND HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY
DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON (EVEN THE HREF BOASTS 500 TO 750 J/KG
OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE BY LATE DAY), SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION. SOME MODEST DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN
ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL HOVERING IN
THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S, ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW WEAK TO MODEST
SHOWERS AND STORMS. DEWPOINTS AND PWATS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MORE EFFICIENT RAINING
STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS QUITE LOW WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES STAYING ON THE LOWER SIDE 20-25 KT WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HONING IN ON
BURN SCAR AREAS WITHIN LINCOLN COUNTY, MOST CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
PINPOINTED JUST EAST OF THE SCARS, SO NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. STORMS WILL ROLL EASTWARD AND MOST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO CA/NV,
STEERING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO AZ. THIS WILL INDUCE SOME
BREEZY SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN NM ZONES WITH
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURRING. WHILE MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
RETAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS, ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED AIRMASS STORM OR
TWO, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
NM WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BACKED MORE EASTERLY, LEADING TO
UPSLOPE AND PERHAPS SOME CONVERGENCE NEAR/EAST OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND THE RATON RIDGE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES, REACHING CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
INTO THURSDAY, THE CUT-OFF LOW RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW (20-25 KT AT 700 MB) CREEPING INTO WESTERN
NM. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS, THIS WILL INDUCE
BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH THE RIO GRANDE AND FAR
WESTERN ZONES LIKELY SEEING THE STRONGEST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH. THE DRYLINE WOULD STILL BE POISED TO STAY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS, POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING STORMS NEAR THE INTERFACE WITH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INTO FRIDAY THE CUT-OFF LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAKENING WAVE.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME. SOME WEAK VORT
LOBES COULD BE EMBEDDED IN THESE SOUTHWESTERLIES, POTENTIALLY
ASSISTING AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF THE TIMING SYNCHRONIZES.
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, GENERALLY RETAINING A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT INITIALLY BEFORE
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. THIS WILL KEEP PREVAILING WIND SPEEDS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, POINTING THE PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES TO POPS AND
CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND DECREASED VISIBILITY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NM ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING KFMN AND KGUP DURING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THOSE
TAFS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TUESDAY
EVENING, WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WETTING RAINFALL HAS COVERED A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE ABQ FORECAST
AREA YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THIS WILL PUT CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE BACK BURNER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND SOME NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS HAVE NOT YET RECEIVED THEIR SHARE. PREVAILING WINDS BEGIN
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH OVER WESTERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
STRONG SOUTH WINDS EXPAND MORE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, DEWPOINTS AND RH WILL PLUMMET OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. RECENT RAINFALL WOULD MITIGATE FUEL CONCERNS
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT THE NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU COULD SEE A
JUXTAPOSITION OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL WINDS AND VERY LOW RH, MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. PREVAILING WINDS WOULD
RELAX SLIGHTLY INTO FRIDAY AND MORE-SO INTO THE WEEKEND. BY THIS
POINT THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FALL UNDER A TYPICAL LATE MAY AND
EARLY JUNE REGIME WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE STATE WHILE THE EASTERN ZONES (EAST OF THE DRYLINE) OBSERVE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RH ALONG WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 76 48 84 49 / 20 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 71 36 79 39 / 60 20 5 0
CUBA............................ 69 41 76 45 / 30 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 74 37 80 39 / 20 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 70 41 77 44 / 10 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 73 39 80 41 / 20 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 72 41 77 44 / 10 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 71 48 77 51 / 40 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 70 43 76 46 / 20 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 77 38 80 41 / 10 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 82 43 84 46 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 36 72 39 / 50 20 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 67 49 75 52 / 50 20 5 0
PECOS........................... 67 42 75 44 / 50 30 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 44 72 46 / 60 30 10 0
RED RIVER....................... 59 36 65 34 / 70 30 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 33 68 26 / 60 30 30 0
TAOS............................ 68 41 75 42 / 50 20 10 0
MORA............................ 62 41 71 44 / 60 40 40 10
ESPANOLA........................ 74 47 81 47 / 40 20 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 69 48 76 50 / 40 20 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 46 80 47 / 40 20 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 75 54 82 56 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 77 56 83 55 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 79 48 85 49 / 30 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 77 52 84 54 / 20 20 0 0
BELEN........................... 79 47 85 49 / 30 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 77 52 84 53 / 30 20 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 79 45 85 47 / 30 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 78 51 85 53 / 30 20 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 47 85 49 / 30 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 74 52 81 54 / 30 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 51 83 54 / 20 20 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 80 53 86 55 / 30 20 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 69 48 77 51 / 40 20 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 71 48 79 51 / 40 20 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 70 44 79 47 / 40 20 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 40 80 43 / 40 20 5 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 44 75 46 / 60 30 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 43 78 46 / 50 20 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 45 77 47 / 50 20 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 73 51 80 53 / 50 20 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 66 44 74 45 / 70 20 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 65 41 67 42 / 50 40 60 20
RATON........................... 68 44 73 44 / 60 40 50 10
SPRINGER........................ 68 44 75 45 / 70 40 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 44 73 46 / 70 40 20 5
CLAYTON......................... 72 49 73 49 / 50 50 60 30
ROY............................. 66 46 73 47 / 60 50 30 10
CONCHAS......................... 72 49 81 51 / 70 40 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 70 47 79 49 / 60 30 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 74 50 82 52 / 70 40 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 70 51 81 53 / 80 40 20 0
PORTALES........................ 73 50 83 53 / 80 40 20 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 73 49 82 51 / 80 30 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 75 53 84 55 / 60 20 5 0
PICACHO......................... 71 48 81 51 / 60 20 10 0
ELK............................. 70 45 80 48 / 70 30 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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