128
FXUS65 KABQ 081854
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1254 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FEW DAYS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY AND
SUNDAY, SLOWLY INCREASED THRU NEXT WEEK. RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
RETURNS TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS MAY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE 18Z ABQ SOUNDING CAME IN SHOWING A 599DM H5 HEIGHT WITH THE
CENTER OF MONSOON HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIKELY REACHING
OR SURPASSING THE 600DM LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z ABQ
SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS A 0.65" PW FALLING JUST BENEATH THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY AUGUST. SUFFICE TO SAY, IT IS HOT AND IT IS
DRY, SUPPORTING THE HEAT ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
VALLEY AREAS FORECAST TO REACH THE 100F MARK TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING
DEVELOPMENT WITH SHORT LIFESPANS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
THE MONSOON HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN NM SUNDAY,
LOWERING IN STRENGTH AS H5 HEIGHTS FALL TO 596DM. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A FEW DEGREES, ENOUGH TO LIMIT A NEW HEAT
ADVISORY TO SOLELY THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU FORECAST ZONE (FARMINGTON).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, SPREADING ONLY
A BIT FURTHER OVER NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEES A SUBTLE TREND OF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SLIDES OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLOW MOTIONS OVER
NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN THE RULE. BY
THURSDAY, THE MONSOON HIGH WILL RECENTER ITSELF MORE AS A WESTERLY
APPENDAGE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF COOLER MORE SEASONALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE AN UPTICK
IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CA INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PWS TRENDS UPWARDS TO THE 1.00" TO 1.20" MARK,
NEARING OR SURPASSING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-AUGUST. THIS WILL
YIELD HEALTHIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CROPS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN, CENTRAL,
AND NORTHERN NM. POORLY DRAINED AREAS OR RECENT BURN SCARS WILL HAVE
A HIGHER RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS, WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
CALMING THRU THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1252 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
MONSOON HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH LIGHT
PREVAILING WINDS, NEAR RECORD HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS THE
REGION. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
LIGHTNING STARTS. THE MONSOON HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES OVER NM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, PUSHING INTO TX BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE IN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE, YIELDING IMPROVED OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AND
INCREASED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY THE LATER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 101 66 99 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 95 54 96 / 5 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 61 93 61 94 / 10 10 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 60 97 60 93 / 10 10 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 57 92 57 88 / 10 30 20 50
GRANTS.......................... 59 95 60 93 / 5 30 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 60 91 59 89 / 10 30 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 65 93 64 90 / 5 10 10 20
DATIL........................... 59 89 58 87 / 10 40 10 40
RESERVE......................... 58 94 56 94 / 10 40 10 40
GLENWOOD........................ 64 96 62 98 / 10 30 20 40
CHAMA........................... 54 89 54 89 / 10 10 5 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 93 64 90 / 10 20 10 30
PECOS........................... 58 92 58 92 / 10 20 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 89 59 91 / 10 5 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 50 81 50 82 / 10 10 5 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 83 45 87 / 10 20 5 40
TAOS............................ 56 93 57 95 / 10 10 5 20
MORA............................ 54 89 55 89 / 10 30 10 30
ESPANOLA........................ 62 99 63 99 / 5 5 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 94 64 93 / 5 10 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 97 61 95 / 5 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 71 95 70 97 / 5 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 98 68 98 / 5 5 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 99 67 99 / 5 5 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 98 70 99 / 5 5 10 0
BELEN........................... 66 101 66 100 / 5 5 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 99 68 100 / 5 5 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 99 65 99 / 5 5 10 0
CORRALES........................ 70 99 70 100 / 5 5 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 100 67 100 / 5 5 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 68 95 / 5 0 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 98 69 98 / 5 5 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 101 70 100 / 5 0 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 90 63 92 / 10 5 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 65 93 64 93 / 10 5 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 94 59 94 / 10 20 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 96 57 95 / 10 20 30 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 62 91 62 90 / 10 20 20 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 92 61 93 / 10 5 30 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 91 61 91 / 0 0 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 92 65 92 / 5 5 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 85 59 86 / 10 5 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 60 91 60 91 / 10 10 10 30
RATON........................... 55 95 57 95 / 10 10 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 56 98 57 97 / 10 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 93 58 92 / 10 20 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 69 99 69 98 / 5 0 5 0
ROY............................. 63 95 64 94 / 10 10 20 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 102 69 101 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 97 66 96 / 0 0 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 68 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 99 67 98 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 68 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 99 68 98 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 96 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 60 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-217-219-221.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ201.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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