084
FXUS65 KABQ 281126 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
426 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVERNIGHT.
- SOME SLICK AND ICY ROADS FROM SNOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL HELP RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE BURNING OFF LATE THIS
MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST
DURING THE DAY. 700 MB WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALONG WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE LOW OVER EASTERN CO AND NORTHEAST NM
WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS WEST
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
AND NORTH CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY NEAR ROSWELL AROUND SUNRISE
SATURDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NM DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY 3 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS PART OF
THE STATE EARLIER IN THE DAY. PEAK NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
NEAR THE TX BORDER (I.E. CLAYTON, CLOVIS AND PORTALES) BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MIDDAY SATURDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER
AIR SETTLES IN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT. LOWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM
AND 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BRINGING A GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO EAST CANYON GAP WIND TO
SANTA FE, ALBUQUERQUE, AND CARRIZOZO. POTENTIAL FOR MAX WIND GUSTS
OF AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
SUNDAY WILL BE COLDER ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO CONTINUED CAA BEHIND SATURDAY'S BACKDOOR FRONT.
HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY BEFORE EXITING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING. THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AFTER SUNSET
SUNDAY TAPERING OFF MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. MEAN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUSAS AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
LOOK TO BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA (5") AT THIS TIME SINCE THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. CLEARING SKIES
MIDDAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
FROM MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS, ABOUT 5 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. A
COLD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS TO MID
20S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NM, ON TUESDAY DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH IT POTENTIALLY
CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW OVER WESTERN AZ, SOUTHERN NV AND SOUTHERN
CA ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF AND EC-AIFS. THE RESULT WILL BE SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL
DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE VALUES BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 426 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ON THE CAPROCK CURRENTLY RESULTING IN
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO EXPAND WEST AND
MOVE INTO THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY IMPACTING KROW. STILL HAVE
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THESE LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING NORTH TO KTCC,
BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING PREVAILING.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME IFR TO AIRPORT MINIMUM VISIBILITIES AT KCVN
AND KCVS. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM BURN OFF LATE THIS
MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OVERNIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KAEG AND KSAF DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AT THESE SITES. FINALLY CAN'T RULE OUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN JUST BEFORE
AND AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AT KROW. PUT SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. MILD WITH GOOD TO LOCALLY VERY GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY. COLDER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
BEHIND A POTENT BACKDOOR FRONT WITH GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. PEAK NORTH
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH NEAR THE TX BORDER. COLDER ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS WESTERN, NORTH CENTRAL,
AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY SWEEPS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM UP CLOSER TO
NORMAL TUESDAY COOLING DOWN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL COME THURSDAY
WITH GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS. SOME LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 28 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 54 18 50 15 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 54 26 49 21 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 21 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 26 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 60 25 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 59 28 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 34 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 58 31 54 26 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 65 25 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 29 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 18 44 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 31 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 31 53 19 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 26 46 22 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 21 39 17 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 18 44 9 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 54 23 49 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 56 30 51 16 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 58 26 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 52 32 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 54 28 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 37 55 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 34 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 31 60 25 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 33 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 63 28 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 33 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 62 27 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 61 32 59 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 29 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 36 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 33 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 35 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 33 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 33 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 33 53 20 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 31 55 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 55 31 50 17 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 32 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 33 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 36 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 38 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 24 36 11 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 57 25 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 61 25 50 15 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 59 30 50 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 60 33 40 15 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 60 30 47 15 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 32 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 37 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 36 52 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 40 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 64 41 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 37 61 22 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 65 36 68 29 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 39 67 25 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 68 35 67 22 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...71
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