046
FXUS65 KABQ 151936
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
136 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 126 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS TODAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM
MDT.
- SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY PROJECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PIVOT INTO THE
AREA. THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A CLOSED SUBTROPICAL LOW WORKING UP
THE TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA WHILE A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES INTO EASTERN CO. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL CAUSE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHILE A COOLER, MOIST SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO
SOUTHEAST CO AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (25-30 KT IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER) FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO IN THIS AREA. COLD POOLS
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING,
LEADING TO NEW STORMS ON A MORE SPARSE (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED)
BASIS. STORMS ARE MODELED TO EXIT OR DISSIPATE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT,
AND CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS WILL HELP MODIFY OR PUSH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLIDE SOUTH OF I-40 WHILE
STRUGGLING TO INFILTRATE PAST THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TOWARD THE
RIO GRANDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS MOIST BOUNDARY WILL RAISE DEWPOINTS AND ALSO PROVIDE AN UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT ON EASTERN FACES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS,
LEADING TO ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR DEEP, MOIST
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NM ON SUNDAY. AROUND 25-30 KT OF
BULK SHEAR WILL BLANKET MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM,
AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO CONVERGE WITH A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IN
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY WHERE A
SECONDARY FOCAL POINT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS PROJECTED.
MEANWHILE, THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE STARTING TO NUDGE WESTWARD A
BIT, LOWERING WINDS ALOFT AND REDUCING STEERING FLOW AND STORM
MOTIONS WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES IN THE
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
A MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO REMAIN INTACT INTO MONDAY, STRETCHING
FROM SONORA AND THE GILA INTO NORTHEASTERN NM, HOWEVER THE OVERALL
PWAT VALUES WILL DECREASE (GENERALLY WITHIN A 0.8 TO 1.1 INCH
RANGE). THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE CONTINUING TO ELONGATE ON A WEST-
EAST AXIS AS PRESSURE RISES BUILD FARTHER WEST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
AREA STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STEERING FLOW TURNING A BIT MORE SLOW AND ERRATIC.
STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO REDUCE SUBSTANTIALLY INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CELLS INITIATING OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN, MOSTLY FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO NORTHEASTERN NM. WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A WEST-EAST AXIS
THROUGH THIS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, IT WILL BE BUILDING
MORE CENTRALLY OVER NM, CAUSING PWATS TO REDUCE AND LIMIT THE STORM
COVERAGE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER HIGH TO NUDGE A BIT TO THE
NORTHWEST, BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTO WEST
TX, AND THIS COULD OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. NORTHEASTERN NM ZONES WOULD BE
THE MOST OBVIOUS BENEFICIARIES OF THIS POTENTIAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE COLD POOL COULD BE
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED AND ASSISTED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW IN THE FINER DETAILS WITH THIS
SCENARIO, GIVEN MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SLOWLY MOVING AND REDEVELOPING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. MOST STORMS WILL THEN EXIT NEW MEXICO
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TYPICAL AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS WILL ACCOMPANY
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND HAIL. STORMS WILL TEND TO PRODUCE LARGER HAIL AND
GUSTIER WINDS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. A WEAK, BUT MOIST, COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MORE STRONG, AND PERHAPS SEVERE, STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2026
GENERALLY, NO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF STRONG OR LONG DURATION GUSTY
WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
SUNDAY NIGHT DOWNWIND (WEST) OF VULNERABLE GAPS AND CANYONS WITHIN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUCH AS THE GLORIETA PASS NEAR SANTA FE
AND TIJERAS CANYON NEAR ALBUQUERQUE. GUST IN THESE AREAS MAY
APPROACH 30 TO 45 MPH FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THIS, GUSTY WINDS WILL MOSTLY EMANATE FROM THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PEAKS SUNDAY (MAINLY CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NM) INTO MONDAY (GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS) WHERE WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN NORTHEASTERN NM, MAINLY ON
SUNDAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVER IS SLATED FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND ALSO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MENTION OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE
FOUND. THEREFORE, A FEW NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
REDUCED MOISTURE AND STORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD WILL LEAD TO LESS
WETTING RAINFALL AND ALSO HOTTER, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY READINGS OF 15-25% WILL BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE
TUESDAY AND EACH SUBSEQUENT DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 59 92 64 93 / 0 0 5 5
DULCE........................... 48 89 52 88 / 0 0 10 20
CUBA............................ 57 88 58 86 / 0 5 20 40
GALLUP.......................... 55 88 57 88 / 0 5 5 30
EL MORRO........................ 54 83 55 82 / 0 10 20 60
GRANTS.......................... 56 88 58 86 / 0 10 20 60
QUEMADO......................... 57 84 57 84 / 5 40 20 60
MAGDALENA....................... 63 85 62 83 / 10 30 40 60
DATIL........................... 57 82 57 80 / 10 30 40 70
RESERVE......................... 56 89 56 88 / 10 30 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 62 94 62 93 / 10 30 20 70
CHAMA........................... 49 82 51 81 / 0 5 10 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 61 86 61 83 / 0 20 30 60
PECOS........................... 56 84 56 83 / 5 70 40 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 82 55 81 / 5 20 20 50
RED RIVER....................... 44 74 45 73 / 10 40 30 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 38 77 39 77 / 5 50 40 60
TAOS............................ 53 85 55 83 / 0 20 20 40
MORA............................ 52 79 52 79 / 10 70 40 70
ESPANOLA........................ 58 92 59 89 / 0 20 30 40
SANTA FE........................ 61 87 61 84 / 5 50 30 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 58 90 59 87 / 0 40 30 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 91 66 89 / 0 40 40 40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 93 67 90 / 0 30 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 62 94 62 92 / 0 20 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 94 66 91 / 0 20 30 30
BELEN........................... 64 95 65 92 / 0 20 40 20
BERNALILLO...................... 64 94 64 91 / 0 20 30 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 94 62 91 / 0 20 40 30
CORRALES........................ 65 95 65 92 / 0 20 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 94 64 91 / 0 20 40 30
PLACITAS........................ 64 90 64 88 / 0 30 40 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 93 66 90 / 0 20 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 69 95 68 93 / 5 20 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 60 86 58 84 / 0 50 40 60
TIJERAS......................... 61 87 60 85 / 0 40 40 60
EDGEWOOD........................ 57 86 57 85 / 0 50 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 88 55 86 / 0 60 40 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 57 83 56 82 / 10 60 50 60
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 87 57 85 / 5 60 40 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 85 58 85 / 10 70 30 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 89 63 89 / 10 60 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 54 82 54 82 / 20 40 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 79 54 82 / 50 70 60 50
RATON........................... 54 83 54 85 / 20 80 50 50
SPRINGER........................ 55 84 55 86 / 20 70 50 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 55 81 55 82 / 20 70 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 61 84 60 89 / 80 40 70 20
ROY............................. 58 83 58 85 / 50 50 60 30
CONCHAS......................... 64 91 63 94 / 50 40 60 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 89 62 91 / 30 40 60 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 64 92 63 95 / 50 40 60 10
CLOVIS.......................... 67 93 65 95 / 30 20 20 5
PORTALES........................ 67 95 65 96 / 30 20 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 94 66 94 / 20 30 60 5
ROSWELL......................... 70 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 0
PICACHO......................... 63 91 62 92 / 10 30 10 10
ELK............................. 59 87 58 87 / 20 40 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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