150
FXUS65 KABQ 290543 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- STORMS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH STORMS
INITIATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE SPREADING INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS. MODEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS GENERALLY
UNIMPRESSIVE, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH, ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO, WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE WEST (PWATS ~0.75-1.00 INCHES),
WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE BURN SCARS NEAR RUIDOSO.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MORE
ESTABLISHED MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH.
AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SLOW-MOVING STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WHERE
STORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM WESTERN CONVECTION COULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POTENTIALLY BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, BLOWING DUST, AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND, WITH PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND OR ABOVE 1 INCH. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, FASTER STORM
MOTIONS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE
DURATION OF RAINFALL OVER ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER, REPEATED
ROUNDS OVER THE SAME AREA COULD STILL PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OUTFLOWS FROM WESTERN CONVECTION MAY ONCE AGAIN PROPAGATE INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF STRONG
WIND AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED STORMS. THROUGH MONDAY, THE
PERSISTENT RIDGING AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL KEEP EASTERN NEW
MEXICO HOT, WITH AN INCREASING NUMBER OF LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
BEYOND MONDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES AS TO WHERE THE RIDGE
WILL SET UP. WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST RELIANT ON THE NBM
SOLUTION, WHICH IS LEANING HEAVILY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE ECMWF,
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE ELONGATED AND MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE
EXPECTING MORE OF A TRANSITION TO A LESS ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ANY LINGERING MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-TERRAIN CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS STILL POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM LATE THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN AZ MAY MOVE INTO NW NM
OVERNIGHT, BUT THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN AS RADAR
DEPICTS CONVECTION IS ON THE DOWNTREND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT BEFORE SATURDAY AFTERNOONS CROP OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
AND WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, WITH
THE MOST NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AROUND 5 TO 15 KT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY. STRONG OUTFLOWS MAY
KICK UP DUST, INCLUDING IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (ABQ/AEG TAFS)
TOWARD EVENING WHICH MAY ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KT ARE LIKELY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WETERN NM THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH, FIRE STARTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
MONDAY. SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH STORMS SPREADING INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING. EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND DRIER, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WITH HUMIDITY BEING LOW
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BEING LIMITED, THE COMBINATION OF HEAT
AND DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
POTENTIAL OUT EAST. THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE WILL DEGRADE BY
TUESDAY, DECREASING THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 92 62 86 / 10 20 40 30
DULCE........................... 55 88 52 84 / 5 20 50 30
CUBA............................ 59 87 58 82 / 5 20 30 30
GALLUP.......................... 59 89 56 83 / 30 20 40 50
EL MORRO........................ 55 85 54 80 / 10 30 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 56 88 57 83 / 10 30 30 50
QUEMADO......................... 58 86 57 81 / 20 50 40 60
MAGDALENA....................... 63 88 63 84 / 10 40 30 50
DATIL........................... 57 85 57 81 / 10 40 30 60
RESERVE......................... 56 91 57 87 / 20 20 20 50
GLENWOOD........................ 60 96 62 92 / 20 20 20 30
CHAMA........................... 54 82 52 78 / 5 20 50 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 87 62 83 / 5 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 57 88 58 86 / 5 10 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 84 56 81 / 10 20 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 49 75 49 72 / 10 20 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 81 44 78 / 10 20 20 20
TAOS............................ 53 89 57 86 / 10 20 20 20
MORA............................ 54 85 55 83 / 10 20 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 64 93 63 89 / 5 20 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 60 89 61 86 / 5 20 20 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 92 60 89 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 94 67 91 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 95 67 91 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 97 66 93 / 5 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 95 68 91 / 5 10 20 20
BELEN........................... 65 97 65 93 / 5 10 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 68 96 67 92 / 5 10 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 97 64 93 / 5 10 20 20
CORRALES........................ 68 96 67 92 / 5 10 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 97 64 93 / 5 10 30 20
PLACITAS........................ 67 93 66 90 / 0 10 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 95 68 91 / 5 10 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 68 98 69 94 / 5 20 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 89 61 86 / 5 10 20 20
TIJERAS......................... 64 90 63 88 / 5 10 20 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 91 60 89 / 0 10 20 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 55 93 57 90 / 5 10 20 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 88 60 87 / 10 10 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 90 60 88 / 10 10 20 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 90 60 89 / 10 10 10 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 92 66 92 / 10 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 84 60 84 / 10 30 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 58 89 58 88 / 10 20 20 10
RATON........................... 56 92 56 90 / 10 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 55 95 57 93 / 10 20 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 89 57 88 / 10 10 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 65 97 68 97 / 5 10 10 10
ROY............................. 62 93 62 93 / 10 10 10 10
CONCHAS......................... 68 102 70 101 / 10 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 98 67 97 / 20 10 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 102 71 101 / 10 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 66 98 68 99 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 66 99 69 100 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 100 70 100 / 10 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 69 101 71 102 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 63 95 65 95 / 5 10 5 5
ELK............................. 60 90 62 91 / 5 10 5 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...34
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