594
FXUS65 KABQ 100723
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
123 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO (UNDER 7000 FEET) WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO ADEQUATE COOLING
OR HYDRATION.
- DRY, BREEZY, AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CREATE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
- STORM CHANCES TREND HIGHER FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FAVORING EASTERN NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH LESSER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
DRIER AIR IS FUNNELING IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DROP TO VALUES AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST
NIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT, THE
DRY, DOWNSLOPING BREEZE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
FACT, IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR IN MANY
AREAS, INCLUDING ALBUQUERQUE AND ROSWELL. THERE IS OVER A 90%
CHANCE THAT ROSWELL AND SOCORRO REACH 100F AND EVEN A 10% CHANCE
THAT ALBUQUERQUE REACHES THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. IT WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY, WITH HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE.
A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE ALONG WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
AROUND THE REGION.
WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES HOT
AREAWIDE. HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
WEDNESDAY'S VALUES AND CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES WILL FLIRT
WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD (105F). A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL
INTRUDE FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, BUT ITS PROGRESS WILL BE
STALLED DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET, IT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
WESTWARD, SURGING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD BOTH SPEED UP THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS INCREASE ITS STRENGTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, GETTING CARRIED OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A TAD, BUT IT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH
SEASONAL JUNE TEMPERATURES.
RECYCLED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH WESTERLIES OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH STORM CHANCES FAVORING EASTERN NM. ISOLATED CONVECTION
IS STILL LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, BUT WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN GIVEN THE LOWER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS (30S AND 40S). ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST
NM. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK (OFF BURN SCAR) WILL
REMAIN QUITE LOW GIVEN THE FASTER STORM MOTIONS AND STILL RELATIVELY
DRY SOILS IN MOST AREAS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHER
OVER BURN SCARS, BUT NO DAY CURRENTLY STICKS OUT AS A HIGH RISK DAY.
GRADUAL DRYING IS EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE MONSOON HIGH
ATTEMPTS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING
A WESTERLY BREEZE IN MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM.
LLWS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MANY SITES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
TONIGHT BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
DRY ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY, WITH A BRISK SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE IN MOST AREAS. WHILE
BRIEF, LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS NOT UPGRADED GIVEN THAT
FUELS ARE NEAR NORMAL DRYNESS AND RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT LIKELY
TO BE MET FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY
DRY AROUND THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY, WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY IN
THE AFTERNOON. VALUES COULD BOTTOM OUT BELOW 5% IN CENTRAL NM,
INCLUDING ALONG THE RGV.
THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY, BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHTER
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL USHER IN MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST LATE THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY SURGING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
START A PERIOD OF WETTER WEATHER FOR EASTERN NM, WITH DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER MID-WEEK. CONVECTION WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE DRIER, WITH ONLY ISOLATED WETTING
RAINFALL AND A THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS FROM DRY STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
DRY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 93 57 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 88 45 90 44 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 88 54 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 90 48 91 48 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 87 51 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 92 52 93 53 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 89 51 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 91 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 89 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 96 48 97 53 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 98 53 100 56 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 82 45 84 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 88 55 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 88 51 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 77 44 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 41 83 39 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 89 49 91 50 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 88 51 89 50 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 95 55 97 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 89 61 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 57 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 100 63 101 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 98 64 99 65 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 100 60 100 61 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 98 63 99 64 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 99 60 99 61 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 99 64 100 65 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 99 61 99 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 94 64 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 63 99 64 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 102 66 102 69 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 60 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 91 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 58 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 55 95 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 88 57 91 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 93 57 94 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 92 59 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 95 67 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 88 62 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 89 54 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 93 53 89 49 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 94 54 91 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 91 54 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 97 63 87 55 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 94 57 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 100 62 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 97 61 97 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 102 68 99 64 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 101 68 102 66 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 102 69 104 66 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 100 65 101 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 103 69 105 70 / 5 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 98 64 100 63 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 97 63 99 62 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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