883
FXUS65 KABQ 020753
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
153 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
- STRONG WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES,
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
- DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING THE SANTA FE METRO
AREA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO. FOLKS SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO PROTECT PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM A DAMAGING
FREEZE EVENT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF A MOIST STORM SYSTEM FROM
WEDNESDAY WILL SPREAD DRY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NM TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS CAPTURING MT WAVES TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
MPH REPORTED ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS. 700-500MB LAYER WINDS
OF 30-40KT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS NORTH OF I-40 AND TRANSLATE TO
WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH TODAY. LOW HUMIDITY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS ONCE AGAIN WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL NM (RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT).
FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS A 543DM H5 LOW MOVES
EAST THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS THRU SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METRO AREAS AROUND SUNRISE
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NM BY SUNSET FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
TREND MUCH COOLER FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NM IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT. THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND
WEAKER WITH A DELAY OF THE STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS OVER EASTERN NM
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY SO THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, LIGHT
WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MIN
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM WITH FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE ABQ METRO
AND EASTERN NM. FREEZE WATCHES MAY BE PRUDENT IN SOME AREAS GIVEN
THE STRETCH OF HISTORIC WARMTH FROM MARCH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED 576DM H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF NM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND WARMER TEMPS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN
SONORA SUNDAY WILL UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE AND ALLOW MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO SOUTHWEST NM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHWEST
HALF OF NM SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA REGION. THE NBM PROB QPF
>0.05" IS NOW 20-40% SOUTHWEST OF ABQ SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY AND WARM WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WAVE MAY DRAW EVEN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WITH IMPROVING CHANCES FOR QPF >0.05" ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. THE LATEST NBM MEDIAN 72-HR QPF
ENDING TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWS 0.10-0.25" OVER MOST HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
WITH 0.05 TO 0.15" IN THE LOWER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM.
TEMPS MAY ALSO TREND CLOSER TO EARLY APRIL NORMALS THRU THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM MDT WED APR 1 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NM IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, INCLUDING AREAS OF TURBULENCE
AND LLWS. THE STRONGEST WINDS THRU SUNRISE WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS WITH GUSTS OF 35-45KT
EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD TO MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 BY 11AM WITH GUSTS OF 30-40KT THRU SUNSET THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BE SLOW TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 114 AM MDT THU APR 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO EASTERN NM TODAY WITH STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS, MIN HUMIDITY <15%, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, ERC
PERCENTILES NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE, AND RFTI VALUES IN THE 3 TO
6 RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE THRU NM LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, AND
VERY LOW HUMIDITY. ERCS WILL LIKELY HOVER BETWEEN THE 75TH AND
90TH PERCENTILE OVER EASTERN NM WITH RFTI VALUES OF 3 TO 5 ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF EDGEWOOD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD LESS WIND, HIGHER MIN HUMIDITY, CLOSER TO
NORMAL TEMPS, AND MORE FREQUENT PRECIP CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 68 37 58 23 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 62 27 57 17 / 10 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 65 31 54 22 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 67 29 56 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 65 33 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 69 32 58 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 70 35 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 72 41 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 68 37 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 71 31 70 29 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 74 38 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 27 51 18 / 10 5 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 40 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 65 37 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 34 54 25 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 54 29 48 12 / 0 0 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 28 50 8 / 0 0 5 5
TAOS............................ 63 31 58 17 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 64 36 59 24 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 72 38 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 39 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 38 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 44 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 45 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 76 42 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 75 43 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 77 40 71 31 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 75 43 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 76 39 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 76 43 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 76 41 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 71 44 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 43 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 80 45 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 40 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 69 40 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 69 40 62 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 72 38 64 22 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 38 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 41 64 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 41 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 46 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 68 45 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 67 35 61 23 / 0 0 5 5
RATON........................... 71 36 64 22 / 0 0 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 72 37 66 24 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 39 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 76 46 67 32 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 73 41 69 30 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 80 47 78 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 47 72 35 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 49 79 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 80 48 78 40 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 82 48 79 39 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 81 45 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 85 50 84 45 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 80 47 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 45 79 38 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ213>215.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ125-126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page