616
FXUS65 KABQ 121133 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 527 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH COVERAGE PEAKING ON SUNDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF OFF
SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
- DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK WESTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE ARIZONA BORDER
AROUND SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND THIS SURFACE MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY DELAY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION, ALTHOUGH MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING SFC WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING, WHICH SHOULD THE
CLOUDS BREAK UP. HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING RIGHT
OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS BETWEEN NOON AND 1PM TODAY, THEN
QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-AFTERNOON.
SINCE RAINFALL RATES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY (1-1.5"/HR),
THERE IS A THREAT OF BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING, BUT MOST HI-RES
MODELS ARE TAKING THESE STORMS OFF THE SCAR QUITE QUICKLY AFTER
INITIATION. BOTH THE HREF AND RRFS LPMM ARE SHOWING A BULLSEYE OF 1-
2.5" JUST SOUTH OF THE BURN SCAR, INDICATING THE REALISTIC MAX
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE SCARS. SINCE PROBS OF >0.5"
OVER THE SCARS THEMSELVES ARE LOW (<15%), OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH.
THE SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY WILL FOCUS OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE
OPTIMAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP THE MOST. THAT BEING
SAID, DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE A CONCERN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL INHIBIT ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS FROM DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS, BUT
THAT MAY NOT MATTER GIVEN THE STRONG DCAPE (UP TO 1000J/KG).
THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY STRONG INSTABILITY (LIS < -7C AND SFC BASED CAPE
OVER 2500 J/KG). IF STORMS MOVING WEST OFF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS TAP
INTO THE STOUT INSTABILITY HERE, THEY COULD INTENSIFY, BUT THEY MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH THIS AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SURGING PWATS ANOTHER 0.1-0.2" IN MOST
AREAS. A WEAK WESTERLY SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO ONCE AGAIN GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN MTNS COMPARED
TO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL INTRUDE FROM THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT, REPLENISHING MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE
DAY ON SUNDAY. WHILE STORM CHANCES STILL FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BE
THE DAY WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS
MONDAY, WITH DECREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY IS
LOOKING LIKE A PRIME DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN EASTERN NM, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE SUMMER THUS FAR. PER
NBM GUIDANCE, THERE IS A 14% CHANCE THAT ALBUQUERQUE REACHES 100F ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN EASTERN NM. THE MONSOON HIGH
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD
START TO BRING IN SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE IN THE LATE MORNING AS SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH.
GUSTY EAST WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN HAVE
PEAKED AND WILL TREND WEAKER THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, FAVORING
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN, WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION AS FAR WEST AS THE CONT. DIVIDE. A FEW STORMS MAY
PERSIST PAST 06Z IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT FRI JUN 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EASTWARD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GENERALLY BE OF A DRIER NATURE,
WITH WETTER STORMS IN EASTERN NM WHERE PWATS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.
SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY ONCE AGAIN FAVOR EASTERN NM, BUT THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT INTRUDES FROM THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, REPLENISHING MOISTURE AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
MORE ACTIVE DAY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE.
DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY (MODERATE
CONFIDENCE) AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE INTO CENTRAL NM ON WEDNESDAY. ANY
RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MAJOR FUEL IMPROVEMENTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BE RISING MID-WEEK, SOARING TO THE HIGHEST VALUES OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 95 61 94 61 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 91 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 89 57 89 56 / 10 5 0 10
GALLUP.......................... 92 54 89 52 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 89 57 86 55 / 5 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 91 57 90 56 / 10 5 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 90 58 86 55 / 5 0 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 89 62 / 20 5 20 10
DATIL........................... 87 60 85 58 / 10 0 20 10
RESERVE......................... 96 53 93 52 / 0 0 30 10
GLENWOOD........................ 99 52 98 55 / 0 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 84 48 84 47 / 0 0 0 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 62 86 61 / 20 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 87 54 89 54 / 10 20 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 55 85 53 / 20 0 20 20
RED RIVER....................... 77 46 76 43 / 20 0 20 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 39 80 43 / 10 10 20 30
TAOS............................ 88 53 88 52 / 10 10 10 10
MORA............................ 83 53 86 51 / 30 10 20 30
ESPANOLA........................ 94 59 93 59 / 20 10 10 10
SANTA FE........................ 88 61 89 61 / 10 20 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 91 59 92 59 / 10 20 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 95 69 96 68 / 20 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 66 97 65 / 10 10 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 63 99 65 / 10 10 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 67 97 66 / 10 10 0 10
BELEN........................... 98 62 99 63 / 10 10 0 10
BERNALILLO...................... 97 66 98 66 / 20 20 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 97 60 98 61 / 10 10 0 10
CORRALES........................ 98 66 99 66 / 10 10 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 61 98 63 / 10 10 0 10
PLACITAS........................ 93 66 94 66 / 20 20 0 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 67 97 66 / 20 10 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 100 70 99 68 / 5 5 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 62 91 61 / 20 20 0 10
TIJERAS......................... 91 62 92 60 / 20 10 0 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 91 59 93 57 / 10 10 5 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 92 55 94 54 / 10 10 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 86 57 89 54 / 20 10 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 59 93 56 / 20 10 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 59 92 57 / 20 10 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 94 64 94 65 / 30 10 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 84 59 87 59 / 60 10 40 20
CAPULIN......................... 81 53 86 45 / 30 10 10 50
RATON........................... 86 52 90 50 / 30 5 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 87 54 91 51 / 30 20 10 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 85 56 90 54 / 30 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 86 62 94 52 / 10 30 20 40
ROY............................. 84 58 90 52 / 30 30 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 92 62 98 57 / 20 40 40 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 60 95 56 / 30 20 40 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 65 99 57 / 20 40 40 40
CLOVIS.......................... 93 66 98 61 / 10 20 10 50
PORTALES........................ 94 65 99 61 / 10 20 10 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 63 97 59 / 20 20 30 40
ROSWELL......................... 96 67 100 66 / 40 30 20 30
PICACHO......................... 90 61 95 60 / 60 10 70 20
ELK............................. 90 59 94 59 / 70 30 70 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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