160
FXUS65 KABQ 291113 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER FAR EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
A TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
KEEPING SUSTAINED MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION.
THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND HOT
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES MAY BEGIN
TO IMPACT WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NM WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE
BEEHIVE FIRE. THE LATEST HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FORECAST SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE IMPACTS TOWARD QUESTA, RED RIVER AND RATON
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT STAYING NORTH OF TAOS. GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL COME TO THE EASTERN NM THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE NAM IS
MODELING MUCAPE OF AROUND 3,000 J/KG, LIS OF -7C AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30KTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGHING
PATTERN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO DIMINISH. GULF
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM AND RESULT IN
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ISN'T
CHECKING THE SEVERE BOX. THE JET STREAM IS STILL FORECAST TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING THE
MONSOON HIGH A SHOT AT GETTING ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL
HAPPEN BY THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BUT
IS LOWER ON PWATS INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY FOR PRODUCTIVE RAINFALL.
THIS IS ALL FAIRLY NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY, WHEN THE HEAT CAN HELP
TO DRAW MOISTURE IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER INTO NM. IN TERMS OF
HAZARDS, THE THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN/NEAR RUIDOSO
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, BUT IT LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AT TAF SITES,
ALTHOUGH SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING AND MORESO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP BY MID DAY, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE 5KTS OR MORE LESS THAN
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY MOVE IN THE
VICINITY OF KROW THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
...A LARGE FIRE GROWTH PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM...
A TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUED DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AND MORE NEAR-CRITICAL AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER TODAY RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH ONLY
NORTHEAST NM FORECAST TO HIT CRITICAL THRESHOLD DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE SOME TUESDAY,
BRINGING BACK A LARGER AREA OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL
INCLUDE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, GULF MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS, BRINGING
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS TUE/WED. EXTREMELY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY WITH MANY
HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY, BUT WINDS MAY NOT REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLD. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM RETREATS NORTHWARD AND THE
MONSOON HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 88 54 90 51 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 83 48 85 44 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 85 55 86 52 / 0 0 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 85 49 85 45 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 82 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 86 51 88 48 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 84 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 87 60 87 58 / 0 0 5 0
DATIL........................... 83 54 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 87 50 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 91 54 91 51 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 76 45 78 43 / 0 0 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 10
PECOS........................... 86 54 87 52 / 0 0 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 80 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 73 42 75 42 / 0 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 76 39 78 38 / 0 0 10 10
TAOS............................ 83 52 84 50 / 0 0 0 10
MORA............................ 82 51 82 50 / 0 0 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 91 57 91 55 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE........................ 85 59 86 57 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 57 90 55 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 65 93 63 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 59 95 57 / 0 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 93 64 94 62 / 0 0 0 5
BELEN........................... 96 62 96 61 / 0 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 93 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 94 60 94 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 94 63 94 60 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 94 60 94 58 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 89 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 64 92 62 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 97 68 97 66 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 59 86 57 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 87 60 87 58 / 0 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 58 87 57 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 54 89 52 / 0 0 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 56 84 54 / 0 5 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 59 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 66 89 64 / 0 0 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 84 58 83 56 / 5 0 20 10
CAPULIN......................... 86 52 86 51 / 0 0 10 10
RATON........................... 90 52 89 51 / 0 0 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 92 54 91 53 / 0 0 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 55 86 53 / 0 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 95 64 93 63 / 0 0 20 20
ROY............................. 90 60 88 57 / 0 0 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 98 66 95 63 / 0 5 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 94 64 91 62 / 0 0 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 69 95 66 / 10 5 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 94 66 91 65 / 20 10 40 30
PORTALES........................ 97 68 94 65 / 20 20 40 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 96 68 94 65 / 10 0 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 97 70 94 68 / 20 0 40 20
PICACHO......................... 92 64 90 62 / 10 0 40 10
ELK............................. 88 62 86 60 / 10 0 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ104-123.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-105-109-123.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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