314
FXUS65 KABQ 060557 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL CREATE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND DIFFICULT
TRAVEL.
- VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BRING MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- LATE SEASON HARD FREEZE WILL POSE A RISK TO NEWLY BUDDING PLANTS
AND SENSITIVE VEGETATION OVER NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING EAST OVER LAS VEGAS, NV PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHILE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS
PULLED UP STATIONARY NEAR A LAS VEGAS (NM) TO SANTA ROSA TO CLOVIS
LINE. AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO SHOWERS
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST FROM AZ INTO WEST CENTRAL NM SOUTH OF
GALLUP. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW A CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON, THEN FOCUSING MORE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM LATER THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW FILLS AND
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THE LATEST HRRR AND HREF
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING E-NE INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO BETWEEN
3-5PM, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE LATE AFTERNOON COMMUTE WITH A FEW
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE MATERIALIZED ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS TO BETWEEN
50-58MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SW CHAVES COUNTY IS ON TRACK AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING. SNOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE ABOVE 9KFT TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, THOUGH
WITH LITTLE-TO-NO IMPACT TO POPULATION CENTERS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL FURTHER EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NORTHERN NM, BRINGING SNOW
ACCUMULATION DOWN TO AROUND 8KFT. ADDED FORCING FROM THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND MAY BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO RATON PASS (7.8KFT), WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WARM ROAD
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LIMIT IMPACTS SIMILAR TO THE LAST EVENT.
OUR STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD FAVOR AN ADVISORY, BUT THOSE
AMOUNTS ARE RELEGATED TO THE PEAKS AND THE LAST EVENT UNDERPERFORMED.
ALL OF THAT SAID, WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A FRONT DOOR SEGMENT AS WELL, WHICH WILL
BRING BRISK CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AREAS AND HIT THE SANTA FE AND
ALBUQUERQUE METROS AROUND 4-5PM. PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SOUTHWARD SINKING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. COOLER ARE FORECAST
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE, EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
20-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUAL CLEARING IS FORECAST. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCALES THAT ARE NEAR OR
PAST THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES. A HARD FREEZE IS FORECAST
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND WEST CENTRAL NM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
APPROPRIATE FORECAST ZONES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
AFTER A COLD START TO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW FREEZE WARNINGS
LIKELY TO BE IN EFFECT, A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY. A BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH OF NM ON FRIDAY INTO FAR WEST TX AND WON'T BE A PLAYER IN
OUR FORECAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY WILL STEER STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT OVER NM AND RESULT IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
AFTER SOME DAYTIME MIXING. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING COOLER CONDITIONS
GOING INTO SUNDAY, WHILE WESTERN NM REMAINS TOASTY WITH HIGHS 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL A ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD MOVE OFF OVER
THE ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER AZ AND MOVE OVER
NM FROM EARLY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PATCHY MID LEVEL CIGS AND ISOLATED SHRA WILL LINGER NEAR THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST NM WILL ALSO CREATE AN
AREA OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW MVFR CIGS FROM NEAR KCAO TO KTCC. THE
FOCUS SHIFTS TO A POTENT COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH THRU THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHRA/TS MAY FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN NORTHWEST NM THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST TOWARD KABQ,
KAEG, AND KSAF THRU 5PM. A BRIEF PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FROPA. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY WITH MT OBSCURATIONS AND IFR THRU WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE BACKDOOR PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SURGE
SOUTH THRU EASTERN NM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF GUSTS
UP TO 45KT POSSIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF IFR OR LOW MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1222 PM MDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
LOW AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALL IMPACT THE AREA. A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU MAY BE
THE LONE EXCEPTION, WITH LOW A PROBABILITY (20-30%) FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT, HIGHER HUMIDITY AND LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 42 63 30 71 / 50 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 58 24 69 / 70 70 10 5
CUBA............................ 34 59 28 67 / 70 50 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 63 26 70 / 50 30 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 60 29 68 / 20 10 20 0
GRANTS.......................... 32 65 27 71 / 20 30 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 31 62 32 68 / 10 5 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 37 66 38 69 / 10 5 5 5
DATIL........................... 33 61 33 67 / 0 0 5 5
RESERVE......................... 29 69 34 75 / 10 5 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 33 72 40 79 / 10 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 29 50 22 63 / 90 90 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 59 34 66 / 60 50 20 5
PECOS........................... 33 61 28 67 / 50 40 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 52 24 63 / 70 80 60 5
RED RIVER....................... 29 42 20 53 / 80 90 70 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 25 49 20 60 / 70 90 60 10
TAOS............................ 32 57 24 67 / 70 70 30 5
MORA............................ 32 57 26 67 / 40 80 60 10
ESPANOLA........................ 38 64 33 72 / 60 60 20 5
SANTA FE........................ 37 61 32 66 / 60 40 30 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 64 30 69 / 50 30 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 67 40 71 / 50 20 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 41 69 40 72 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 72 38 75 / 30 10 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 70 39 74 / 40 20 20 0
BELEN........................... 38 73 38 74 / 10 5 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 70 37 75 / 50 20 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 37 72 36 74 / 20 10 10 0
CORRALES........................ 42 71 37 75 / 40 20 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 72 37 74 / 20 10 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 65 38 70 / 50 20 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 70 38 74 / 40 20 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 42 76 43 77 / 5 5 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 37 62 34 66 / 50 20 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 64 34 68 / 50 20 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 65 32 69 / 40 10 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 32 67 28 71 / 30 5 20 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 35 62 29 66 / 20 5 40 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 66 32 69 / 20 5 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 65 33 68 / 10 0 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 68 42 71 / 5 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 41 61 36 66 / 20 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 30 39 22 62 / 70 80 60 5
RATON........................... 32 45 24 66 / 50 80 60 5
SPRINGER........................ 36 54 25 68 / 30 80 60 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 35 61 26 68 / 10 50 60 10
CLAYTON......................... 35 45 28 69 / 50 80 70 0
ROY............................. 35 55 28 66 / 20 70 70 10
CONCHAS......................... 42 69 33 75 / 20 30 70 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 42 70 34 72 / 5 10 50 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 42 69 34 74 / 20 20 60 0
CLOVIS.......................... 46 73 34 73 / 0 0 30 0
PORTALES........................ 47 75 35 74 / 0 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 75 36 73 / 0 0 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 50 80 43 73 / 0 0 10 5
PICACHO......................... 45 72 38 71 / 0 0 10 10
ELK............................. 42 70 36 72 / 0 0 5 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NMZ201-218.
FREEZE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ228>231.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page