348
FXUS65 KABQ 221719 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1004 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES AREAWIDE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGED IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
VALLEY RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 120 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
WARMER WEATHER CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
HIGHLANDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON, PLEASANT
WARM AND DRY WEATHER REIGNS SUPREME. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL COOL OFF
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
AN ELONGATED TROUGH/WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE
STATE TODAY. THIS MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LITTLE
FANFARE OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS PASSING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UP TO 5 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. ACROSS EASTERN NM, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 10 TO 18 DEGREES WARMER AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN
ALLOWING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS TO FINALLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA.
QUIET AND GENERALLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK, BUT DRY,
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE STATE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ACROSS MOST
AREAS, THOUGH CHAVES COUNTY WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY ALL AREAS WILL BE BACK ABOVE LATE
FEBRUARY NORMALS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY ON MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NM. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, RAISING THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED
WARMTH. A TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE BRINGS STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY, TRANSLATING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TYPICAL WINDY HIGHLANDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF A
FEW BREEZES, PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ARE VERY LIKELY TO BE
10-20F ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET SQUARELY
OVER NM, TRIGGERING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. CONCURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO EASTERN NM WEDNESDAY,
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AROUND 10F ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH
SUBTLE TEMPERATURE DROPS ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STILL REMAIN UP TO 5F ABOVE AVERAGE IN
EASTERN NM AND UP TO 10F ABOVE AVERAGE WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE IN THE WEEK, WARMING UP EASTERN NM BACK TO 10-
15F ABOVE AVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST VALUES OF THE 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE AROUND 580MB, WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
FEBRUARY. MODELS THEN CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A CLOSED LOW TRAVERSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CA INTO AZ/NM THIS WEEKEND, BUT TIMING AND
STRENGTH CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z SUITE
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ALIGN AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO AZ BY SATURDAY
EVENING AND DEVELOPING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM. THESE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALIGN WITH ~35% OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE. ANOTHER ~30% OF MEMBERS DRIVE THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA MUCH QUICKER (EAST OF NM BY SATURDAY
EVENING), AND THUS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION. THE OTHER ~35% OF
MEMBERS SHOW OTHER VARIOUS SOLUTIONS NOT ALIGNING WITH THE FIRST
TWO. OVERALL, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE ALIGNMENT GIVES LOW TO
MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR NM THIS WEEKEND, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE, AT WORST, MINOR IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR PREVAILS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS. BROKEN CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF NM CLEAR
OUT THRU THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 AM MST SAT FEB 22 2025
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH/WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL CROSS THE STATE TODAY, WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING ON SUNDAY BEFORE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
MORE ZONAL EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. BY LATE WEEK, THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE AMPLIFIED, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WON'T COME
UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN AN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA. THUS,
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO PLUMMET. STARTING SUNDAY, RH WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MANY
AREAS, AND SINGLE DIGIT RH IS ALREADY FORECAST FOR WED AND THURS
AFTERNOONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM. FORTUNATELY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS,
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. NONETHELESS, ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY, MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 55 22 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 51 15 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 53 19 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 56 13 63 20 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 53 22 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 15 64 21 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 21 60 27 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 56 30 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 54 24 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 62 15 67 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 24 72 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 47 16 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 30 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 53 27 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 23 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 15 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 11 51 23 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 52 17 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 53 23 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 23 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 27 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 24 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 32 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 61 27 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 29 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 62 22 68 26 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 61 28 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 23 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 61 28 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 61 23 67 27 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 57 29 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 60 30 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 63 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 30 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 54 31 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 55 28 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 20 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 24 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 56 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 25 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 57 30 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 51 33 59 38 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 55 23 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 57 19 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 18 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 24 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 58 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 54 25 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 24 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 28 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 23 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 27 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 55 25 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 54 22 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 54 26 74 33 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 29 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 55 30 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...24
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