018
FXUS65 KABQ 072331 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
431 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.
- OTHERWISE, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER, WINDY, AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS
IN STORE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD JUST
OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE INFLUX OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL BE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE FAVORED ABOVE 9000-9500FT. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE RAINFALL OR LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH. AS OF THIS WRITING, SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. AS PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED
FARTHER SOUTH AT KDMN.
WHILE AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL SHY
OF RECORDS THOUGH. TONIGHT, THE CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT.
SUNDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY. ALL AREAS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE
PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALREADY BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN NM A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA THEN WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST-NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO
THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEFORE CROSSING THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO BRING NM MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY MOVE UP INTO SOUTHEAST NM
FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PRESS DOWN THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. WHERE THE FRONT REACHES THE MOISTURE WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE, MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE UP TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY.
MONDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
NM AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS.
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE ANOTHER LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK TO MODERATE
DOWNSLOPING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM RIGHT BACK UP ACROSS
EASTERN NM. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMS
OVER THE AREA, BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NM LATE IN
THE WEEK, WITH FRIDAY THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST THE SYSTEM TRACKS AND HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH THE SYSTEM WILL BE. THERE'S ALSO LARGE DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT COULD ARRIVE
BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF I-40, WITH VERY LITTLE
OF THIS RAIN REACHING THE SFC. THE BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
A RELATIVELY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW, CREATING AREAS OF LLWS
IN EASTERN NM AROUND SUNRISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STORM
SYSTEM. A FEW BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY, A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM. GUSTS NEAR 30 OR 35 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY WHILE RH VALUES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY, AND THOUGH SOME BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ALONG AND BEHIND
IT, RH VALUES WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT
MIXING AND THEREFORE KEEP WINDS BELOW CRITERIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 61 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 23 60 22 60 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 25 58 24 60 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 17 61 16 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 25 59 25 60 / 5 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 20 61 17 65 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 25 59 25 62 / 10 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 33 59 34 63 / 20 0 0 10
DATIL........................... 28 57 28 60 / 10 0 0 5
RESERVE......................... 24 66 25 66 / 20 0 0 10
GLENWOOD........................ 28 69 28 71 / 10 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 25 54 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 35 57 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 31 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 28 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 22 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 13 52 10 54 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 24 59 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 29 59 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 27 64 24 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 31 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 28 61 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 35 64 36 64 / 5 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 34 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 30 67 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 31 65 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 27 66 27 67 / 5 0 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 31 66 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 25 67 26 67 / 5 0 0 5
CORRALES........................ 30 67 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 24 66 25 67 / 5 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 33 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 33 66 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 35 67 34 69 / 10 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 58 35 60 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 35 59 36 60 / 5 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 61 32 62 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 63 20 65 / 10 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 58 30 60 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 62 32 63 / 10 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 62 30 63 / 10 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 36 65 37 65 / 20 0 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 36 59 35 60 / 20 0 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 32 59 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 28 63 22 67 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 29 64 21 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 29 61 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 40 66 37 72 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 63 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 34 70 29 76 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 66 31 71 / 10 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 71 32 76 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 70 37 74 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 40 71 33 75 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 39 70 32 73 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 73 36 73 / 10 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 40 68 35 72 / 10 0 0 5
ELK............................. 36 68 34 69 / 10 0 0 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...16
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