003
FXUS65 KABQ 131140 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH DRY AIR
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH AND MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND IT. SOME OF THIS DRY
AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY, DECREASING THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS A RESULT, COVERAGE TODAY
WILL FOCUS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND IN THE NORTHWEST HIGH
TERRAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
MODEST INSTABILITY, BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS ALWAYS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED GOING INTO TUESDAY,
BUT THE DRY SLOT WILL MIGRATE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IN CENTRAL NM, INCLUDING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS AS A SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S IN MOST
AREAS. PLUS, DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HELP TO COOL
THINGS OFF IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS AN EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE WILL SUPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
DURING THIS PERIOD, DESPITE THE 1"+ PWATS. THE EASTERLY WAVE IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS BEYOND THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND,
RECYCLING MOISTURE EACH DAY. ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE THE HIGH
DRIFTING SOUTH AND CENTERING ITSELF OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE HIGH WILL LIKELY BRING TEMPS
BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU THIS
MORNING AND THOSE SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
BEFORE DISSIPATING MID-MORNING. ISOLATED STORMS TODAY WILL FAVOR
THE NW AND SE PORTIONS OF THE STATE, MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING,
GIVING WAY TO DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO
A LOW CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1247 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS TODAY. OVERALL INTENSITY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW, WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. STORM COVERAGE TRENDS UP SLIGHTLY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUING TO TREND HIGHER AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ADVECTS
IN MORE MOISTURE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 97 66 96 66 / 20 20 20 30
DULCE........................... 93 51 92 50 / 40 30 30 50
CUBA............................ 87 58 86 56 / 20 20 50 30
GALLUP.......................... 91 57 90 55 / 20 10 20 50
EL MORRO........................ 87 57 85 57 / 5 5 30 40
GRANTS.......................... 90 58 89 57 / 10 5 20 40
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 86 58 / 10 10 20 40
MAGDALENA....................... 86 62 86 63 / 20 5 10 30
DATIL........................... 83 59 83 59 / 10 0 20 30
RESERVE......................... 91 55 90 56 / 30 20 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 93 57 92 57 / 40 20 50 40
CHAMA........................... 85 49 84 48 / 40 30 30 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 86 63 85 62 / 10 10 30 20
PECOS........................... 84 54 83 54 / 30 10 50 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 85 55 84 54 / 50 20 50 10
RED RIVER....................... 76 46 74 45 / 50 20 40 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 79 41 78 40 / 40 20 40 10
TAOS............................ 87 51 86 51 / 30 20 40 20
MORA............................ 81 52 80 51 / 30 20 40 20
ESPANOLA........................ 93 61 92 59 / 20 10 20 20
SANTA FE........................ 86 61 84 60 / 40 5 50 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 89 59 88 58 / 20 5 40 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 93 67 92 66 / 5 5 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 94 64 93 64 / 5 5 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 96 64 95 63 / 5 5 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 94 67 94 66 / 5 5 20 30
BELEN........................... 95 63 95 63 / 5 5 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 95 66 95 65 / 5 5 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 61 94 61 / 5 5 20 30
CORRALES........................ 96 66 95 65 / 5 5 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 95 63 94 63 / 5 5 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 91 66 90 65 / 10 5 30 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 95 66 94 65 / 5 5 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 97 68 96 69 / 10 5 10 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 87 60 86 59 / 5 5 30 30
TIJERAS......................... 88 60 88 60 / 5 5 30 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 56 87 56 / 10 5 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 52 88 52 / 5 5 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 54 82 55 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 56 87 56 / 5 0 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 85 57 85 57 / 5 0 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 87 61 88 61 / 10 10 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 78 54 79 55 / 20 20 30 5
CAPULIN......................... 82 54 81 53 / 5 5 10 5
RATON........................... 87 54 86 53 / 0 20 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 88 55 86 55 / 0 10 20 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 83 55 82 55 / 10 10 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 88 61 88 60 / 0 5 5 5
ROY............................. 84 59 83 58 / 0 20 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 92 64 91 63 / 10 20 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 86 61 87 61 / 10 10 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 91 64 91 63 / 10 10 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 89 63 90 62 / 20 20 20 10
PORTALES........................ 90 63 90 62 / 20 20 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 64 90 63 / 20 5 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 90 66 91 66 / 20 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 85 60 86 60 / 20 20 30 20
ELK............................. 82 56 83 56 / 30 20 40 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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