759
FXUS65 KABQ 081132 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON
AREA BURN SCARS EACH DAY. A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
00Z RAOBS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHOWED THE CENTER OF A 596DM H5
HIGH BETWEEN FLAGSTAFF AND ABQ WHILE A 60-80KT JET STREAM ENTERS
NORTHERN CA AND NV. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS DRAPED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NM WHERE PWATS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMO FOR EARLY JULY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL ONLY IN THE 40S
IN MOST AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE TODAY AND
BECOME COMPRESSED INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL JET APPROACHES THE GREAT BASIN. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AROUND NOON THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO
NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS THRU SUNSET. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL FOOTPRINTS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
>0.50". SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.
BY THURSDAY, DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL FILTER INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM AS THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES INTO SOUTHERN UT.
MAX TEMPS WILL APPROACH 100F AROUND FARMINGTON AND WITHIN PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE RGV. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAJORITY OF
STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH PLAINS
OF EASTERN NM. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF ABQ WILL
BE DRIER WITH STRONG OUTFLOWS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. A FEW
CELLS FARTHER SOUTH WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS >0.50" WITH MORE ERRATIC STEERING FLOW EXPECTED. THERE IS
A MODERATE CHANCE FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ON THE RATON RIDGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS A SMALL 'SLIGHT RISK' AREA GIVEN THE
STRONGER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACHING JET MAX. THERE IS A GREATER
CHANCE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF STORMS OVER EASTERN CO AND
WESTERN KS THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH HELPS FORCE A MOIST BOUNDARY
SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST NM FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY BUT WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM AND SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS IN
THE RGV. THE SETUP APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE RATON RIDGE THEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WHILE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. MOS GUIDANCE PEAKS ON FRIDAY WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS SO FAR THIS SEASON AT ABQ, SO CONFIDENCE ON A
HEAT ADVISORY IS HIGHER.
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST NM IS SHOWN FORCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EVEN FARTHER WEST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE,
THE H5 HIGH CENTER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AGAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE RGV AND WESTERN NM. MODERATE PRECIP
CHANCES FOCUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH SLOW
NORTH TO SOUTH STEERING FLOW. THESE STORMS FORCE EVEN GREATER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEST ACROSS THE RGV AND INTO WESTERN NM SUNDAY.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL THEN EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND OPEN THE DOOR TO A RICH TAP OF MONSOON
MOISTURE OVER NM THRU WEDNESDAY. NBM QPF PROBS ARE SHOWING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR HIGHER DAILY PRECIP IN SEVERAL AREAS,
PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NM. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER HIGH AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AREA OF DRY AIR NEAR AND ABOVE 500MB TO ADVECT WESTWARD BENEATH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE OVER NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
BETWEEN 12PM AND 3PM THEN MOVE ERRATICALLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO
NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS THRU SUNSET. DIRECT HITS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 40KT, BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN, PATCHY BLDU, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHRA WILL LINGER OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THRU THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
STORMS WITH SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TODAY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN, THE NEARBY HIGHLANDS OF CENTRAL NM,
AND MORE OF NORTHEAST NM. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. ANY STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL BE DRIER IN
NATURE WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
EVEN DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NM THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND NORTHWEST
BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE THE LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE ERC
VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. MEANWHILE, MORE STORMS WITH
WETTING RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NM AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WILL SURGE WEST TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS WITH WETTING RAINFALL. OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL FORCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE
AZ BORDER SUNDAY. STORM CHANCES ARE TRENDING HIGHER FOR SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN NM SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 98 64 98 61 / 0 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 93 50 93 48 / 10 20 5 0
CUBA............................ 92 58 92 58 / 20 10 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 92 56 93 57 / 30 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 87 56 89 58 / 50 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 91 56 93 58 / 40 20 20 0
QUEMADO......................... 88 58 90 60 / 70 50 10 10
MAGDALENA....................... 89 64 92 66 / 40 20 40 20
DATIL........................... 85 59 88 61 / 60 20 20 10
RESERVE......................... 93 54 96 54 / 60 50 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 97 58 100 58 / 40 20 40 20
CHAMA........................... 84 49 85 49 / 30 20 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 63 89 64 / 40 10 30 0
PECOS........................... 90 56 92 57 / 40 20 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 87 54 / 20 20 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 76 48 77 47 / 30 20 20 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 81 42 82 41 / 50 20 20 0
TAOS............................ 88 53 90 53 / 20 10 20 0
MORA............................ 85 54 86 54 / 40 20 40 5
ESPANOLA........................ 96 61 97 61 / 10 10 20 0
SANTA FE........................ 90 61 91 62 / 10 20 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 59 94 59 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 98 66 99 66 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 97 66 99 67 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 99 65 101 66 / 10 20 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 99 64 101 65 / 10 20 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 99 65 100 66 / 10 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 62 100 63 / 10 20 10 5
CORRALES........................ 99 66 101 66 / 10 20 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 98 63 100 64 / 10 20 10 5
PLACITAS........................ 94 67 96 67 / 10 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 98 67 100 67 / 10 20 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 101 71 102 72 / 20 20 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 91 62 92 62 / 10 20 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 92 62 94 62 / 10 20 10 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 59 94 60 / 20 20 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 94 54 95 55 / 20 30 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 57 90 57 / 30 20 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 92 60 94 61 / 20 40 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 61 92 62 / 20 60 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 67 95 69 / 10 40 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 86 61 87 63 / 30 30 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 88 54 86 53 / 40 20 70 20
RATON........................... 92 53 91 52 / 50 20 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 93 55 92 55 / 30 10 50 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 89 56 90 56 / 30 10 40 10
CLAYTON......................... 96 63 94 61 / 20 20 40 40
ROY............................. 92 60 90 59 / 40 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 100 65 99 64 / 20 30 20 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 64 96 64 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 100 69 100 67 / 0 20 10 30
CLOVIS.......................... 97 67 98 67 / 0 5 10 10
PORTALES........................ 98 69 100 69 / 0 5 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 98 68 99 68 / 0 10 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 99 71 101 72 / 0 10 10 10
PICACHO......................... 94 65 96 66 / 0 20 30 20
ELK............................. 91 62 92 64 / 5 10 50 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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