228
FXUS65 KABQ 022314 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FAVORING AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
- LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND LIMIT VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE
OR LESS, CREATING DIFFICULT TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS, STORMS AND HIGH
MOUNTAIN SNOW FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NM, WHILE
THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM AN FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND 0.25". THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING SHOWS A 700MB TEMPERATURE OF 0C AND A PROFILE THAT IS
SUPPORTIVE OF GRAUPEL. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN DIMINISHING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SOME CLEARING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT
RECEIVED DECENT (>0.50") RAINFALL ON THU/FRI LIKE ROSWELL. GIVEN
LIGHT WINDS AND THE OVERALL SETUP, WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH WE AREN'T GETTING
A STRONG SIGNAL FROM THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE. THE AREAS MORE LIKELY
TO SEE FOG SUNDAY MORNING ARE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS, INCLUDING ROSWELL, CLOVIS AND PORTALES. DESPITE WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING AND GUSTINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NM. SUNDAY'S ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FAIRLY ANEMIC IN TERMS OF WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL AND WILL
FAVOR GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY'S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND GIVE WAY TO STRONGER WESTERLIES, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AFTER SOME DAYTIME MIXING. WARMING WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN NM, THANKS IN PART TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW, FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PWATS WON'T BE VERY
HIGH AND FORCING WITH THIS WEAKENING UPPER AIR FEATURE WON'T BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG, SO DON'T EXPECT MUCH WETTING (>0.10")
RAINFALL WITH THIS EVENT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST NM, THANKS TO ADDED FORCING FROM
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY AND
THEN PROGRESS SLOWLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOWERING SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS LIKELY IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WHILE A WEAK PACIFIC LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY
AND THEN WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<30%) FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NM,
INCLUDING KROW, TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
THESE SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL IMPACT ANY TAF LOCATION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1219 PM MDT SAT MAY 2 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, FAVORING AREAS WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DRYING AND WARMING ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY AS STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RECENT RAINFALL
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RAMP-UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT PACIFIC LOW, WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL NM GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION. A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST THEREAFTER WITH
FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK PACIFIC LOW HANGING
OUT OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 75 46 74 / 0 5 20 0
DULCE........................... 32 70 38 70 / 0 10 30 10
CUBA............................ 34 69 41 69 / 0 10 30 10
GALLUP.......................... 34 73 39 70 / 0 10 20 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 69 40 67 / 5 20 20 5
GRANTS.......................... 33 72 39 72 / 5 20 20 5
QUEMADO......................... 37 69 42 69 / 10 20 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 41 68 48 72 / 10 20 20 5
DATIL........................... 36 66 43 68 / 10 20 20 10
RESERVE......................... 35 72 40 73 / 20 20 20 5
GLENWOOD........................ 38 76 41 77 / 20 10 10 0
CHAMA........................... 31 64 35 64 / 0 10 30 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 67 46 70 / 0 10 20 10
PECOS........................... 35 68 41 70 / 5 10 20 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 65 40 65 / 0 10 20 10
RED RIVER....................... 28 56 34 56 / 0 10 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 61 32 63 / 0 10 20 10
TAOS............................ 31 69 38 70 / 0 10 10 5
MORA............................ 31 66 41 68 / 0 10 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 40 73 44 76 / 0 10 10 5
SANTA FE........................ 39 68 45 71 / 5 5 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 71 43 74 / 5 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 72 53 76 / 5 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 74 51 77 / 5 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 76 49 79 / 5 10 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 44 75 50 78 / 5 10 20 0
BELEN........................... 40 76 47 80 / 10 10 20 0
BERNALILLO...................... 43 75 50 79 / 5 5 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 76 45 80 / 5 10 20 0
CORRALES........................ 43 75 49 79 / 5 10 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 40 76 46 80 / 5 10 20 0
PLACITAS........................ 44 72 51 75 / 5 5 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 45 75 50 78 / 5 10 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 75 52 81 / 10 20 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 67 48 71 / 10 5 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 41 69 48 73 / 10 10 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 38 70 44 74 / 10 5 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 29 72 37 75 / 10 5 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 68 44 72 / 5 5 10 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 68 46 73 / 10 10 20 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 37 67 45 73 / 20 10 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 68 52 74 / 30 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 38 62 50 67 / 20 10 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 34 69 40 72 / 0 5 10 10
RATON........................... 32 73 39 75 / 0 10 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 33 75 40 77 / 0 5 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 34 69 43 73 / 0 5 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 42 77 48 80 / 0 0 10 5
ROY............................. 38 73 46 77 / 0 5 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 43 80 51 85 / 0 0 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 76 50 81 / 0 0 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 81 53 87 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 43 77 51 85 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 42 77 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 42 76 50 85 / 0 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 44 77 52 88 / 5 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 40 73 50 80 / 10 5 5 0
ELK............................. 37 70 47 76 / 20 5 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...34
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