007
FXUS65 KABQ 070542 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
- DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ON
AREA BURN SCARS EACH DAY. A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
- HOTTER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RESULT
IN A MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING OR HYDRATION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN ONTO LOWER ELEVATIONS BY WAY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. TYPICAL MONSOON HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM
WILL GENERALLY BE DRIER SINCE PWATS REMAIN AROUND 0.5-0.7" VS. THE
0.8 TO 1.0" FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A PERIOD OF STRONGER EASTERLY GAP WINDS MAY IMPACT THE ABQ
METRO AREA. THIS WOULD ALSO HELP PUSH MOISTURE WESTWARD ONCE
AGAIN. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH MOST PRECIPITATION DONE BY MIDNIGHT.
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE LITTLE FROM TODAY,
REMAINING CENTERED NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY, IF NOT A TOUCH HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN AREAS AS PWATS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB IN THIS AREA.
STORMS WILL AGAIN ERUPT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY. DRIER
AIR PUSHING INTO EASTERN NM WILL FOCUS THE MOISTURE PLUME AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. ONCE
AGAIN, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORM. ALSO LIKE TODAY, STORMS SHOULD END
BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND ELONGATE OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO
NORTHWEST NM, AND LEAN THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER, FAVORING AREAS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NM. THIS WILL MEAN LESS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST NM, AND IF STORMS FORM, THEY WILL BE DRIER
IN NATURE. ALSO THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF
SOCAL BUT REMAINS ELONGATED OVER NM. THE DRY AIR WILL DISRUPT THE
MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND DOWNWARD AND
FAVOR AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE LACK OF STORMS
AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR, WITH MANY LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO NUDGE BACK EASTWARD ON FRIDAY, BUT DRIER
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PRESS INTO NE NM AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS THANKS TO MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER AND EVENTUALLY OVER WY. WHILE
MODELS YESTERDAY WERE SHOWING DRYING CONDITIONS OVER NM, NOW
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A DISTURBANCE WILL EITHER ROUND THE
UPPER HIGH INTO NM, OR THE STORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN
AN MCV THAT WILL SLOWLY TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS NM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE SCENARIOS WOULD LIKE RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION, RATHER THAN A DOWNTICK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT
NOW, BUT STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
REMNANT SPRINKLES AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL GIVE
TO WAY GRADUAL CLEARING THRU SUNRISE TUESDAY. SHRA/TS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BTWN 11AM AND 1PM THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND
WEST INTO NEARBY HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DIRECT HITS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS,
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, PATCHY BLDU, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
AREAS WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES TUESDAY WILL FOCUS BTWN THE CONT DVD
AND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH DRIER STORMS FAVORING NORTHWEST NM. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE SHIFTING OVER NEARBY
LOWLANDS. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
TOWARD THE SOUTH, BUT SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EACH DAY. DRIER AIR NUDGES
INTO NORTHWEST NM ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKES A BETTER PUSH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LIMITING STORM
COVERAGE. A BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
STORMS ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER. MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS NM OVER THE WEEKEND FROM EAST TO WEST, WHICH MAY
PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE, RATHER THAN A DOWNTICK THAT
WE WERE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTING. STAY TUNED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 97 65 98 / 0 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 51 92 50 94 / 10 20 20 10
CUBA............................ 57 91 57 92 / 10 20 30 5
GALLUP.......................... 56 92 56 93 / 5 20 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 56 86 57 87 / 5 40 10 40
GRANTS.......................... 56 90 56 92 / 10 40 10 40
QUEMADO......................... 59 88 59 89 / 20 50 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 63 87 64 89 / 10 30 30 40
DATIL........................... 58 85 59 86 / 10 60 20 60
RESERVE......................... 54 92 54 94 / 30 60 30 40
GLENWOOD........................ 57 96 58 98 / 20 60 20 50
CHAMA........................... 49 84 48 86 / 5 40 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 85 62 87 / 20 40 30 40
PECOS........................... 55 88 55 91 / 10 40 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 85 55 87 / 10 40 30 20
RED RIVER....................... 48 75 47 77 / 10 50 40 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 81 43 82 / 10 60 30 60
TAOS............................ 54 88 53 89 / 10 30 20 20
MORA............................ 53 83 53 86 / 10 50 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 61 94 60 96 / 10 30 20 10
SANTA FE........................ 61 88 61 90 / 10 30 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 91 58 93 / 10 20 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 96 66 98 / 10 20 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 96 65 97 / 10 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 97 63 99 / 10 10 30 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 97 66 98 / 10 10 30 10
BELEN........................... 63 98 63 99 / 10 5 30 5
BERNALILLO...................... 65 97 65 99 / 10 10 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 96 61 98 / 10 10 20 5
CORRALES........................ 65 97 65 99 / 10 10 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 62 96 62 98 / 5 10 20 5
PLACITAS........................ 66 92 66 94 / 10 20 30 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 96 66 98 / 10 10 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 69 99 70 101 / 10 5 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 88 61 91 / 20 30 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 61 90 61 92 / 20 30 30 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 89 58 92 / 20 30 30 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 91 54 94 / 20 30 30 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 86 57 89 / 20 30 30 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 90 59 92 / 40 20 30 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 88 60 90 / 60 10 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 91 65 93 / 40 20 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 85 59 86 / 20 20 5 30
CAPULIN......................... 55 86 56 88 / 10 20 10 40
RATON........................... 53 91 53 93 / 10 20 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 55 92 55 93 / 10 20 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 87 56 89 / 10 40 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 62 94 64 97 / 0 0 10 20
ROY............................. 60 89 61 92 / 10 5 10 40
CONCHAS......................... 64 97 66 100 / 20 0 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 93 64 96 / 20 0 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 65 94 67 96 / 0 0 5 0
PORTALES........................ 66 97 68 98 / 0 0 5 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 96 68 98 / 5 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 68 98 70 100 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 62 93 64 94 / 5 0 0 10
ELK............................. 58 88 60 90 / 5 0 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...42
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