482
FXUS65 KABQ 182159 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
359 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 356 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THEN ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON RECENT
BURN SCARS FRIDAY NEAR RUIDOSO.
- A MODERATE HEAT RISK REMAINS FOR LOWER ELEVATION AREAS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EACH DAY WHERE HIGHS WILL REGULARLY FLIRT
WITH 100F. THIS RISK RETURNS TO EASTERN NM THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 356 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE FORECAST POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STORM COVERAGE IS HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON
UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CONUS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
BEGUN TO REST UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND WE SHOULD
BEGIN TO SEE CUMULUS, AND SOON THEREAFTER, STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY GIVEN CURRENT RH OBSERVATIONS AND
MODEL/OBSERVED SOUNDINGS, SO NOT EXPECTING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES FROM ANY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS LEAVES A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING NEAR BURN SCARS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE GILA MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST NM, WITH ROUGHLY
THE SAME ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LIMITING EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO LOOK MORE PROMISING FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ECLIPSING 40MPH IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GOING ALONG WITH OUTFLOWS, LIGHT SHOWERS LOOK TO FORM ACROSS THE
EASTERN SANDIA MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE A BREEZY, CONSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGHOUT THE ABQ
METRO AREA. WIND SPEEDS DON'T SEEM LIKELY TO GET ABOVE 35MPH, BUT
THESE OUTFLOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT 10PM.
IT WILL ALSO REMAIN A HOT ONE TODAY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS,
WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE HIGH 90S TO NEAR 100
AGAIN. MOST AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO ALMOST 10F ABOVE AVERAGE, EXCEPT
FOR AREAS THAT GOT HIT WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS TRANSLATES TO A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO FOLKS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IF OUTSIDE FOR A LONG TIME.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A SIMILAR DAY, OUTSIDE OF NO BACKDOOR FRONT. THE
MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S FRONT REMAINS IN EASTERN NM, PROVIDING EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC
THUNDERSTORMS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW PROVIDES THE TRIGGER
MECHANISM FOR THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, AND WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, STORMS SHOULD DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OFF OF
THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A FEW STORMS COULD CONGEAL
INTO A BROKEN LINE AS THEY MOVE OFF OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR, BUT THERE IS NOT
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN BURN
SCARS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY DUE TO
THE INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
IN RAINFALL RATES EFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING TO
HOIST A FLOOD WATCH. TEMPERATURES REBOUND EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN
EASTERN NM WHILE REMAINING MUCH OF THE SAME WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUS, ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR
HEAT RISK EXIST FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST AREAS AGAIN,
INCLUDING ABQ AND FARMINGTON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY,
CONTINUING TO DECREASE THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE ALREADY DRY WEST
PARTS OF NM. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE, ALONG WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. IN TURN, TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN NM WHILE REMAINING STAGNANT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. ONE PART OF THIS FORECAST THAT IS UNCERTAIN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRYLINE THUNDERSTORM SETUP ACROSS EASTERN NM
SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS MOST BULLISH ON THIS SETUP, THOUGH
ALSO BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES ACROSS
EASTERN NM AND DOES NOT DEVELOP THE SURFACE LOW AS FAR SOUTH.
NONETHELESS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
OFF THE DRYLINE AS MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER SHARP DEWPOINT
GRADIENT.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE DRY AND HOT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
100S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE STATE. A FEW BREEZES HERE
AND THERE WILL INTERRUPT AN OTHERWISE HOT DAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT
LOOKS TO ENTER INTO NORTHEAST NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
ALONGSIDE THE LOW CHANCES AT STORMS CLIPPING UNION COUNTY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO REPLENISH THE MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN NM
FOR MONDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE STATE AS
WELL, SETTING UP ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TO ROLL OFF OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE PROGRESS FURTHER INTO
THE WEEK, THERE'S A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE FIRST TRUE MONSOON HIGH
TO BUILD OVER WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ. THE MOST RECENT MODEL
SUITE HAS INCREASED THE DAILY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN NM ALONGSIDE THE BUILDING HIGH, SO THIS WILL BE A TREND
THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
A BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS EASTERN
NM AS OF 18Z. GUSTS MAY PEAK UP TO 40KTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT REMAIN NORTH
TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IN THE GILA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AFTER 20Z. A FEW OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 40KTS MAY OCCUR NEAR
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
SANDIA MOUNTAINS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, CLOSE TO 23-00Z. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTHEAST OUTFLOWS TO KAEG AND KABQ
AFTER 00Z. WINDS AND OUTFLOWS SHOULD SUBSIDE FOR ALL SITES IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST
NM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR KCVN AND KROW.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
KROW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN THE LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS (OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NM BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY) WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SAME IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, THOUGH WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF STORMS FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. MOVING INTO
THE WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS ENTER WESTERN NM, AND A SURFACE LOW
LOOKS TO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM. ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 MAINLY FOR VERY LOW RH (WEST OF I-25) AND BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS (EAST OF I-25). THE BEST OVERLAP AND HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE IN
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEAR TAOS. SINGLE DIGIT RH LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, BUT OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO EASTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH THE
FIRST RENDITION OF THE MONSOON HIGH FORMING OVER THE AREA IN THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 96 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 93 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 91 59 89 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 91 52 89 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 88 55 86 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 92 57 91 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 89 64 92 / 20 5 5 0
DATIL........................... 58 86 58 88 / 20 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 49 93 49 92 / 20 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 96 54 96 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 48 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 88 65 89 / 5 30 5 0
PECOS........................... 53 89 56 89 / 20 20 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 86 57 86 / 10 10 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 46 78 47 77 / 10 20 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 81 45 81 / 10 30 10 0
TAOS............................ 53 89 54 89 / 5 10 5 0
MORA............................ 52 85 53 87 / 10 40 10 10
ESPANOLA........................ 59 95 62 96 / 5 20 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 60 90 64 89 / 10 5 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 93 61 93 / 10 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 96 72 96 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 98 68 97 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 64 100 68 100 / 10 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 97 70 97 / 10 0 5 0
BELEN........................... 62 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 61 98 65 99 / 10 0 5 0
CORRALES........................ 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 98 66 99 / 10 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 65 95 69 95 / 10 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 65 98 69 97 / 10 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 100 71 102 / 20 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 91 64 91 / 20 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 92 64 92 / 20 0 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 56 93 61 93 / 20 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 53 94 58 94 / 20 10 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 89 57 89 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 92 60 93 / 20 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 56 91 61 92 / 20 10 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 93 66 95 / 20 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 84 60 87 / 20 50 5 5
CAPULIN......................... 49 83 52 88 / 20 30 10 10
RATON........................... 51 87 53 92 / 30 30 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 53 87 55 93 / 30 30 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 86 56 90 / 10 40 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 85 60 93 / 5 10 10 5
ROY............................. 54 83 58 92 / 10 20 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 58 92 62 100 / 0 10 20 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 89 61 96 / 5 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 91 64 99 / 5 5 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 89 63 96 / 10 5 30 5
PORTALES........................ 59 90 63 97 / 10 5 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 92 64 98 / 5 5 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 64 94 67 101 / 10 10 5 5
PICACHO......................... 60 90 62 96 / 10 40 5 20
ELK............................. 57 88 59 94 / 10 60 5 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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