994
FXUS65 KABQ 290718
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1218 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
- MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHEAST
LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO STAY
TUNED TO FORECAST UPDATES IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL IN THIS AREA
TODAY.
- COLD TODAY BEFORE BECOMING WARMER FOR THE END OF 2025 AND
BEGINNING OF 2026.
- RAIN AND MOUNTAIN PEAK SNOW CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEW YEAR'S DAY THROUGH MID FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
A POTENT COLD FRONT HAS BASICALLY MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS
OF MIDNIGHT MONDAY. THE MAIN PARENT TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE FRONT IS
NOW WELL NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER, LINGERING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO A WEAK UPPER LOW IS STILL PRESENT OVER
SOUTHERN CA SOUTHEAST OF A UPPER HIGH OFF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS RESULTING IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND FAR SOUTHERN NM AND RESULTANT PWATS AT AROUND 0.5 TO
0.7 INCHES. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE FRONT AND
SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND AND EAST OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MID TO LATE THIS EVENING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH GRADUALLY EXPANDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA IN EL PASO'S AND MIDLAND'S CWA. HOWEVER, THE AREA
TO WATCH FOR OUR CWA WILL BE SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY, INCLUDING
RUIDOSO, AND SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY,
INCLUDING DUNKEN, WITH ROSWELL BEING THE NORTHERN BORDER.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW DUE TO A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S BEHIND THE FRONT.
GIVEN HOW NARROW THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THERE IS STILL
A MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN
COUNTY. THE FURTHER NORTH THE BAND SETS UP, THE HIGHER THE SNOWFALL,
AND THE FURTHER SOUTH THE LOWER THE SNOWFALL. THE LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY SHOWS MEAN 24 HOUR AMOUNTS OF 5 TO
7 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY, 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS U.S. 70
BETWEEN HONDO AND RUIDOSO WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES ON SIERRA
BLANCA PEAK, 1 INCH ACROSS U.S. 380 BETWEEN CAPITAN AND ROSWELL AND
2 TO 4 INCHES FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY, INCLUDING HAGERMAN
AND LAKE ARTHUR. 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS SHOWS 7 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY, 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF
SIERRA BLANCA PEAK, INCLUDING RUIDOSO AND RUIDOSO DOWNS, AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
HIGHLANDS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTY, AND PLAINS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE PECOS RIVER BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND LAKE ARTHUR. THE CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN
EFFECT REMAIN ON TRACK, HOWEVER, IF THESE 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS
COME TO FRUITION WITH THE SNOW BAND SETTING UP FURTHER NORTH, THE
ADVISORY IN THE RUIDOSO ZONE AND CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS ZONE WILL NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE A COLD AND DRY
MONDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS SOCORRO AND CATRON COUNTY. HIGHS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE DECEMBER. AFTER A SEASONABLY COLD MONDAY NIGHT/ TUESDAY MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTY DUE TO
THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER ACROSS THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THESE AREAS COULD BE COLDER THAN ADVERTISED IF THE SNOW COVER IS
DEEPER.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
THE GRADUAL WARMUP CONTINUES AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025 AND RING IN 2026
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGHS ON NEW YEAR'S EVE WILL
BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY DUE TO EXPECTED LINGERING SNOW COVER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF 2026 INTO MID FRIDAY DUE TO
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA COAST
OPENING UP AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY
HIGH AT AROUND 9,500 TO 10,000 FEET. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, INCLUDING CLINES CORNERS, MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED TO MOVE OVER THE STATE ON SATURDAY
BEFORE FLATTENING ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JANUARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM MST SUN DEC 28 2025
A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL INTERACT
WITH MOIST, EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, IFR CONDITIONS, AND ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
RUIDOSO AND DUNKEN EASTWARD TO ROSWELL LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIP, AS WELL AS MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS,
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THERE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN THOSE LOCATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MST MON DEC 29 2025
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025
AND RING IN 2026. COLDER AND MORE TYPICAL DECEMBER TEMPERATURES
TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY'S POTENT FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CHAVES AND LINCOLN COUNTY MONDAY.
MILDER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN AS WE CLOSE OUT 2025
AND RING IN 2026 DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THE FIRST DAY AND HALF OF 2026 AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND FOUR CORNERS AREA.
SOME PATCHES OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY DUE TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. VENTILATION WILL BE
POOR OUTSIDE OF GOOD TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL, EAST CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 44 20 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 46 13 51 16 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 41 16 49 18 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 11 50 12 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 43 19 53 24 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 45 12 53 15 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 22 55 25 / 10 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 36 25 49 28 / 20 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 24 51 27 / 30 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 50 22 60 25 / 40 10 5 5
GLENWOOD........................ 53 25 62 28 / 50 10 5 0
CHAMA........................... 40 15 48 19 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 24 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 40 19 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 20 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 16 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 7 50 12 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 43 11 52 13 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 42 19 58 24 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 46 16 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 40 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 42 20 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 45 29 50 31 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 24 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 23 52 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 46 26 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 45 19 50 18 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 48 24 52 25 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 47 19 51 18 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 48 24 52 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 20 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 43 26 48 28 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 25 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 26 53 26 / 20 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 39 22 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 40 24 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 19 50 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 40 14 52 15 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 20 48 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 38 21 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 21 50 22 / 10 0 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 38 27 52 28 / 50 30 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 26 45 30 / 70 40 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 16 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 14 56 20 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 43 14 56 17 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 40 19 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 43 22 58 25 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 40 16 54 20 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 46 18 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 40 18 58 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 47 20 59 21 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 22 55 23 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 42 21 55 20 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 41 18 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 23 48 23 / 60 30 0 0
PICACHO......................... 32 23 49 28 / 60 20 0 0
ELK............................. 30 20 47 24 / 80 30 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ226-
238-239.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ240.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page