990
FXUS65 KABQ 270604 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1204 AM MDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
FOCUS MORE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BUT STILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST. LOCALIZED DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE GUSTS WILL REACH
AROUND 60 MPH.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WITH SOAKING RAINS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH SNOW HIGHER UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL CREATE
WET ROADS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, SLICK ROADS DUE TO SNOW OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES, AND PERIODS OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
A HIGH WIND EVENT IS UNFOLDING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE HIGHEST GUST REPORTED
SO FAR WAS 63MPH AT SIERRA BLANCA REGIONAL AIRPORT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NM HAVE PRODUCED SOME MEASURABLE RAIN AND
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES, BUT VERY LITTLE WETTING (>0.10"). THE
UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OPENING UP AND
PULLING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL CO PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS
CO AND NORTHERN NM TONIGHT, PROVIDING CONTINUED UPSLOPE FORCING
TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PEAKS OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS COULD PICK UP SEVERAL
INCHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH IMPACTS LIMITED TO
ACCUMULATION ON HWY64 ABOVE 9KFT. THE JET STREAM WILL HOLD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WEAKEN RELATIVE TO TODAY
WITH 300MB SPEEDS DECREASING TO AROUND 90KTS. CONTINUED
MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN TODAY'S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
WILL PLAY A ROLE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
A WEAKENED JET STREAM WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS, STEERING STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NM AND RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE SEVERAL DEGREES OF RELATIVE
COOLING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW WILL BE THE STORY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE TO NEW CALENDAR DAY RECORDS
ON THU/FRI AS THE PACIFIC LOW IMPACTS THE REGION. A KEY INGREDIENT
WITH THIS UPCOMING AND POTENTIALLY SOAKING RAIN EVENT WILL BE A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA
VALLEYS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NM ON FRIDAY AND THEN BE SLOW TO EJECT OUT
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 8-9KFT
DURING THIS EVENT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
ACROSS THE PEAKS. MODEL QPF IS GREATEST ACROSS EASTERN NM, WHERE
THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE ADVERTISING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING
RAINFALL EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SPUR RAPID GREENUP
THEREAFTER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO IS MODERATE TO
HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN GOOD MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND
SUPPORTIVE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AT TAF SITES DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, WHILE CONTINUING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND ALSO ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WEST
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER DURING EARLY-TO-MID MONDAY MORNING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THEN BACK OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE GUSTS FROM 25-40 KT
PERSIST. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWEST GUSTS WILL PEAK FROM 20-35 KT ARE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, THERE IS A
15-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
MORNING, AND AS FAR WEST AS CUBA AND DULCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2026
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
HAVE MATERIALIZED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WINDS
TREND DOWN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. A WEAKENED JET STREAM WILL
HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING TWO MORE ROUNDS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT WILL FAVOR EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NM. THAT SAID, THE WATCH FOR MONDAY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A WARNING AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR TUESDAY OVER
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PACIFIC LOW AND COINCIDING WITH THE SLOW SOUTHWEST PROGRESSION OF
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING HUMIDITY AND
GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOAKING RAINS ACROSS EASTERN NM THAT COULD SPUR RAPID GREENUP
THEREAFTER. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY
ABOVE 9KFT. MUCH COOLER AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST OUT OF NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 39 67 37 67 / 40 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 61 25 63 / 60 30 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 64 31 64 / 20 10 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 30 64 26 66 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 31 67 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 30 67 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 38 70 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 33 65 34 69 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 30 70 30 76 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 35 75 34 80 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 29 53 23 56 / 60 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 38 64 39 65 / 20 10 0 0
PECOS........................... 34 64 34 65 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 59 32 61 / 40 10 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 29 53 27 58 / 30 10 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 55 22 57 / 30 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 33 64 26 65 / 30 10 0 0
MORA............................ 34 64 33 65 / 10 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 38 70 35 72 / 20 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 37 64 38 66 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 37 67 36 69 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 42 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 42 77 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 43 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 40 78 37 80 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 75 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 40 77 36 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 76 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 41 77 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 42 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 43 75 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 81 41 84 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 38 66 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 39 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 36 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 34 70 31 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 36 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 37 70 36 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 38 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 66 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 35 66 31 67 / 0 10 0 0
RATON........................... 36 70 31 70 / 0 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 38 73 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 74 38 77 / 0 5 5 0
ROY............................. 41 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 46 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 50 82 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 50 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 50 82 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 47 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 87 49 90 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 48 79 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 47 77 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page