068
FXUS65 KABQ 100713
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
113 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 THROUGH THIS EVENING RESULTING IN LITTLE RAINFALL WITH A
FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NM.
- A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING NOTABLY COLDER AND
BRISK CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND
ACCELERATING EAST PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE UPPER AIR FEATURE
OVER NORTHERN MX, SOUTHEAST AZ AND SOUTHWEST NM. MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FAVORING AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. THE FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE AND THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A LOW QPF EVENT
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE QUICK-HITTING NATURE OF THE FILLING UPPER LOW
AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM TODAY. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ARE STILL THE TWO AREAS MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
0.10" OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
RELEGATE ANY NOTABLE SNOWFALL TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ENHANCE GRADIENT WINDS AND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40-50MPH
ARE LIKELY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NM WHERE A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BRING BRISK CONDITIONS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-20 DEGREES COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
AND WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR A CHANGE. WARM, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM UNDER MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL BE THE
STORY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ON A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM AND THE 00Z MOS
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUN/MON, SIGNALING A POSSIBLE
FORECAST TREND GOING FORWARD. BRISK CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT ADVERTISED BY THE
00Z MODELS AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30KTS ALREADY SHOWING
IN THE MOS GUIDANCE. BY MONDAY, AN IMPRESSIVE WEST COAST RIDGE
IS FORECAST, WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. LOOKING OUT
FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEK WHILE STRENGTHENING,
BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED MOSTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35KTS, ALTHOUGH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE OUT OF
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A QUICK-HITTING PACIFIC LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDY AND NOTABLY COLDER
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO EASTERN AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET DURING THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY FORECAST IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL IMPACT EASTERN NM SUN/MON WITH NOTABLY COLDER AND BRISK
CONDITIONS, WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN WARM, DRY AND BREEZY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 36 65 31 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 65 27 63 24 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 64 34 62 29 / 20 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 65 29 64 23 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 32 62 27 / 40 5 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 65 31 65 25 / 30 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 34 62 29 / 50 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 40 66 37 / 60 20 0 0
DATIL........................... 57 35 63 30 / 70 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 60 32 67 29 / 70 20 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 61 33 73 32 / 70 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 59 26 58 24 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 40 63 36 / 30 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 65 35 63 29 / 40 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 62 32 60 29 / 20 5 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 56 28 53 24 / 30 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 59 21 56 15 / 40 10 0 0
TAOS............................ 66 29 65 24 / 20 5 0 0
MORA............................ 64 33 61 28 / 40 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 71 37 70 30 / 30 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 65 38 65 34 / 40 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 36 68 31 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 45 69 42 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 44 71 41 / 30 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 37 74 32 / 20 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 71 43 72 38 / 20 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 71 40 74 33 / 30 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 72 41 73 36 / 20 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 36 74 31 / 30 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 41 73 36 / 20 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 38 73 32 / 30 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 43 68 39 / 20 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 71 43 71 38 / 20 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 46 75 39 / 40 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 41 64 36 / 30 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 64 41 65 37 / 30 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 65 40 66 34 / 30 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 35 67 27 / 30 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 63 35 62 29 / 30 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 64 39 66 34 / 40 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 39 66 33 / 50 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 41 69 38 / 70 20 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 56 40 62 31 / 70 20 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 68 29 54 24 / 20 10 0 0
RATON........................... 70 30 60 22 / 30 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 72 32 63 25 / 30 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 33 60 26 / 40 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 76 36 55 30 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 72 36 59 28 / 20 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 78 40 65 31 / 20 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 41 64 32 / 40 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 39 64 31 / 30 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 78 41 64 32 / 30 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 79 41 66 31 / 30 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 42 67 32 / 30 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 75 45 72 38 / 40 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 69 45 68 34 / 60 10 0 0
ELK............................. 64 41 67 31 / 70 10 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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