138
FXUS65 KABQ 161959
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1259 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL YO-YO UP AND DOWN ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PRESS THROUGH
THE AREA. WARMEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND AGAIN MID
WEEK, WHILE THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
AFTER LAST NIGHT'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, IT REMAINS COOL ACROSS
EASTERN NM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S AS OF 12PM. VERY
LITTLE WARMING IS FORECAST AS THE COOL AIRMASS SITS OVER EASTERN NM
TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCH OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A ROGUE GUST OF 40MPH IS POSSIBLE
NEAR FARMINGTON, BUT OTHERWISE GUSTS UP TO 30MPH ARE LIKELY. RATHER
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE BREEZY
WINDS, THAT IS UNTIL OUR NEXT BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN NM TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER SUNDOWN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
REINFORCING COLD AIR TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS
STRONG AS LAST NIGHT'S FRONT, SO APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
FLIRT WITH 0 BUT NOT GO MUCH BELOW IF THEY DO. ALONG WITH COLDER
AIR, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN FAR
NORTHEAST NM AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER DRY, BUT THERE IS NEAR SATURATION FORECAST
IN THE DGZ, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, NO APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE
COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND ENHANCE THE DRAINAGE WINDS, SO IT WILL LIKELY BE A CHILLY
MORNING FOR RESIDENTS IN SANTA FE AND OTHER TOWNS CLOSE TO STEEP
SLOPES.
THE REINFORCED COLD AIR REMAINS SETTLED IN EASTERN NM SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. MANY LOCALES ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 40-45F
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW, WITH NORTHEAST AND MOUNTAINOUS
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO BREAK THE FREEZING MARK. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE UP TO 15F BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID TO LATE JANUARY, TO PUT IT IN
PERSPECTIVE. TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM REMAIN RATHER
UNAFFECTED BY THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO 50S EXPECTED.
STIFF NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NM,
WITH THESE GUSTS LIKELY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOST GUSTS ARE
LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 30MPH, WITH A WIDER COVERAGE AREA THAN TODAY
(FRIDAY). THIS MAY CAUSE NUISANCE CROSSWINDS ON EAST-WEST ROADWAYS
SUCH AS I-40 WEST OF ABQ.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWEST IN NATURE, CONTRIBUTING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WITH THAT, WESTERLY WINDS
ARE FAVORED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE COMMON WINDY AREAS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NM (CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES).
AS A RESULT, THESE DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL SKYROCKET
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO THE HIGH 50S AND 60S, WHICH
COULD BE AS MUCH AS A 25F INCREASE FROM SATURDAY. THIS WARM UP WILL
BE RATHER SHORT LIVED FOR THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS
TO ENTER THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOVING THE SURFACE HIGH CLOSER TO THE EASTERN PLAINS,
WHICH FAVORS THIS FRONT REACHING THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND PRODUCING A CANYON WIND, BUT WITH MOS GUIDANCE NOT TOO
FOND OF THE POTENTIAL WIND SPEED, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON ANY IMPACTFUL
CANYON WIND EVENT.
HOPEFULLY WE DON'T SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT MODELS ARE
DEPICTING ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING NM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
(WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME). WHILE THE DETAILS BECOME FUZZY GIVEN
MODEL DIVERGENCE, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING FAVORS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. WHY IS THERE A
REPEATED BARRAGE OF BACKDOOR FRONTS? THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN HAS
PLACED A SPINNING UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AREA IN
CANADA, AND AS THIS LOW SPINS MOSTLY IN PLACE, SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
ROUND ITS PERIPHERY, MOVING USUALLY DUE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE POLAR JET. THESE SHORTWAVES GENERATE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WHICH SENDS THESE COLD FRONTS SURGING DOWN
THE PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS FAVOR THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN MODELS HAVE BEEN POOR, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIP.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AT MANY CENTRAL AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
GUSTS UP TO 35KTS ARE LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. ACROSS EASTERN NM, LAST
NIGHT'S FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT,
SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTH MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AS WELL AS
DECREASING SPEEDS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES AFTER 06Z NEAR
KCAO TO KTCC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. LLWS IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING
MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, MAINLY BETWEEN 09-15Z. THERE IS ALSO THE LOW
CHANCE OF LLWS BEING OBSERVED AT KABQ AND KAEG FROM 02-07Z. WINDS AT
THE SURFACE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE
LLWS (MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE), BUT ANY DECREASE IN SURFACE WIND
MAY CAUSE INSTANCES OF LLWS THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST FRI JAN 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS WELL, OUTSIDE OF THE
LOW CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FLURRIES IN NORTHEAST NM TONIGHT. BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH GUSTS UP TO
30MPH. MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES SPARSELY DROP INTO THE TEENS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED AREAS AND LIKELY NOT
COLLOCATING WITH ANY STRONGER WINDS. VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT BECOME POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 23 48 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 11 45 12 49 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 18 44 17 49 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 11 46 9 54 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 45 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 12 46 10 56 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 46 19 55 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 27 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 23 46 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 19 55 18 64 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 23 62 21 65 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 11 40 14 44 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 21 41 23 48 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 15 42 20 52 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 15 36 18 47 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 11 27 15 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 0 31 -2 46 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 9 41 9 49 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 12 40 18 56 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 16 48 16 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 21 42 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 19 44 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 29 49 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 51 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 24 54 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 27 51 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 20 54 17 53 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 26 51 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 21 53 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 26 52 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 22 53 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 27 47 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 26 56 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 43 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 26 44 25 48 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 20 45 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 46 13 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 16 38 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 21 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 26 51 24 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 25 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 10 29 12 54 / 10 5 0 0
RATON........................... 8 33 11 57 / 5 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 12 36 11 58 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 12 37 16 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 18 35 19 60 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 15 34 15 57 / 5 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 18 42 16 61 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 39 20 61 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 17 43 17 60 / 5 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 19 40 19 60 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 19 41 19 62 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 18 42 16 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 22 46 17 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 20 46 22 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 20 50 19 65 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77
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