786
FXUS65 KABQ 130745
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
145 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 133 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
- MINOR TO MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM DUE TO NEAR-RECORD HEAT.
- LOCALIZED ERRATIC WIND GUST TO 50 MPH OR GREATER FROM ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL, LATE WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THEN IN FAR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
- MODERATE CHANCE (50-60%) OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY, WITH A HIGH CHANCE
(60-80%) ON SUNDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AGAIN TONIGHT UNDERNEATH A RIDGE THAT HAS
AMPLIFIED ALL THE WAY INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A LONG PLUME OF SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS THOUSANDS OF KILOMETERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN AZ TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR MAY, THIS
MOISTURE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE, WITH PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED TO EVEN
WIDESPREAD VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE QUITE A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE,
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY AND DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER. EVAPORATIVE COOLING INDUCED BY RAIN FALLING INTO
THIS LAYER WILL LIKELY GENERATE A FEW DRY MICROBURSTS WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH. INSTABILITY IS
MODEST, LIMITED BY THE EXITING RIDGE SO STORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW
BETWEEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS IS ACTUALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WHERE A FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING POCKETS OF ENHANCE INSTABILITY (CAPE ~300 J/KG). WITH SUNSET
NOT UNTIL AROUND 8PM THIS TIME OF YEAR, SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, EVENTUALLY DECAYING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.
THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER WESTERN NM WILL GET TILTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN RESPONSE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET. THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DRY WESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER LATER IN
THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN, DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE A CONCERN AND THE
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE GUSTS AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AROUND THE REGION, WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS (25 TO 35 MPH) IN EASTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL AND
POLAR JET STREAMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH DAYS,
WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL IN THE EAST, WHERE IT WILL
BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS
INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE DEPTH OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL PUT DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AND
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED STRONGER. IT WILL ALSO BE
VERY DRY AND WARM, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A DAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
FIRE DANGER. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
COOLER AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.
MOST MODELS (~70%) SHOW THE JET STREAM PULLING OFF TO THE NORTH
AFTER THIS TROUGH EXITS INTO THE PLAINS, BUT A MINORITY OF MODELS
(~30%) ARE KEEPING THE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AROUND, WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WESTWARD TONIGHT,
CREATING A FEW BREEZES (10 TO 15 KTS) THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND 18Z TOMORROW IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM,
TREKKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN AT MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH
ANY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE VERY BRIEF IN NATURE. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, WITH A LIGHT BREEZE IN
MOST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 AM MDT WED MAY 13 2026
A S-N ORIENTED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SET UP OVER WESTERN
NM TODAY, SPARKING SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. GIVEN
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE VERY
LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND THEREFORE POSE A THREAT TO START NEW FIRES
IN RECEPTIVE FUELS. DRY MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS, WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH A
POSSIBILITY IN THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.
A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS, BUT DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON, CREATING LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
EASTERN NM. THE LIKELIHOOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH (STILL AROUND 50-60%) SO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
NOT YET UPGRADED.
WINDS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS NEW MEXICO GETS
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUB-TROPICAL JETS. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL PLACE NEW MEXICO UNDER DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY ON WHAT COULD BE ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER DAY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY (~70% CHANCE) WEAKEN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE (~30%) THAT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, KEEPING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 50 83 46 / 20 20 0 0
DULCE........................... 86 41 79 35 / 5 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 83 47 79 43 / 20 20 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 84 42 79 41 / 20 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 81 46 77 44 / 20 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 84 46 81 44 / 20 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 81 45 80 43 / 10 10 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 83 54 82 52 / 10 10 5 0
DATIL........................... 80 50 80 47 / 10 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 88 44 85 40 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 92 44 88 41 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 81 39 75 37 / 10 20 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 58 79 53 / 10 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 83 50 80 47 / 20 10 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 50 76 44 / 10 20 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 72 44 67 39 / 10 20 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 77 34 73 31 / 20 20 0 0
TAOS............................ 85 45 80 39 / 10 20 0 0
MORA............................ 82 50 79 47 / 20 10 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 90 54 86 47 / 10 20 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 84 54 80 50 / 10 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 52 83 46 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 60 87 55 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 56 89 52 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 95 52 92 48 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 57 90 53 / 10 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 93 49 91 45 / 10 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 93 56 90 51 / 10 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 48 91 43 / 10 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 94 57 91 52 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 49 90 45 / 10 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 88 60 85 54 / 10 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 57 90 52 / 10 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 95 59 93 56 / 10 10 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 57 82 51 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 86 55 83 51 / 10 10 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 87 55 84 49 / 10 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 88 49 85 45 / 10 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 83 54 81 50 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 87 52 85 48 / 10 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 54 84 50 / 10 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 88 61 87 56 / 10 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 82 60 81 56 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 82 51 81 45 / 10 20 5 0
RATON........................... 85 49 85 44 / 20 20 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 87 50 87 45 / 20 20 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 54 82 49 / 20 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 88 61 90 55 / 5 10 10 5
ROY............................. 85 55 86 50 / 10 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 94 60 94 52 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 90 56 90 53 / 10 10 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 64 97 54 / 0 5 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 97 60 96 57 / 0 0 10 0
PORTALES........................ 98 59 97 57 / 0 0 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 95 59 94 54 / 5 0 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 97 62 97 61 / 5 0 5 0
PICACHO......................... 92 57 91 59 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 91 58 90 57 / 10 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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