063
FXUS65 KABQ 160028 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
628 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, CREATING STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND STRONG
EAST CANYON OR GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA
VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM RATON, TO LAS VEGAS, AND
MORIARTY. EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE
TRAVERSING BACK TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE RESULTING
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY
WIND EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY STARTED INCREASING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES, RIO GRANDE VALLEY, AND EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE USUAL CANYON AND GAP WIND
CORRIDORS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, AS WELL AS NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY, BRINGING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY TONIGHT, AND A FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS FROM RATON, TO LAS VEGAS, AND MORIARTY.
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S, ROUGHLY 5-20
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE! ADDITIONAL FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS WINDS BEGIN TO EASE UP AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR, KEY CONDITIONS FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW PROPAGATES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA AND RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MAY BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN. OVERALL
FORCING IS MINIMAL, SO PRECIPITATION CHANGES ARE ON THE LOWER
SIDE. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER WESTERN
NEW MEXICO WHERE THE LOW'S EVENTUAL TRACK AND THE GREATEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY SET UP.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEFORE TRAVERSING INLAND. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. FORECAST TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THURSDAY/FRIDAY COULD BE
THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DETAILS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE EVENT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST, AND SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS IF TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL
SYSTEM TRACK REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL STRONG EAST
AND NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH EASTERN, CENTRAL, WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST AREAS TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL TREND WEAKER ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GAP WIND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHIAN WILL PRODUCE EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KT BELOW
CANYONS OPENING INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS
FROM ALBUQUERQUE SOUTHWARD FROM MID EVENING WELL INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS; LINGERING LONGEST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60. WILL EXTEND
THE AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KT AT KABQ
UNTIL 16Z FRIDAY, BUT THE 50 KT GUSTS SHOULD END THERE AROUND 06Z.
HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR AND
SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY. GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING FLIGHT
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IS AT KSRR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL RANGE ROUGHLY
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH. AS A RESULT OF
YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT TODAY,
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR IS IN THE CARDS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
MINIMUM RH RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO 20S. HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON
THE UPSWING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION,
BUT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 39 64 31 64 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 65 26 66 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 34 64 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 60 26 60 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 62 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 37 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 5
MAGDALENA....................... 38 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 35 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 39 64 32 64 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 45 69 37 66 / 0 0 0 10
CHAMA........................... 29 60 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 33 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 29 56 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 23 48 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 20 51 12 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 28 59 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 28 55 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 37 63 29 66 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 32 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 43 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 45 63 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 44 65 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 42 63 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 44 66 30 65 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 43 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 42 64 33 66 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 45 65 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 41 62 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 42 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 45 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 36 56 30 59 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 38 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 35 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 35 59 19 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 33 53 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 35 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 36 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 42 57 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 35 50 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 29 50 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 31 55 22 66 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 32 58 20 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 32 57 25 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 32 55 27 65 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 35 57 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 42 62 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 41 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 43 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 42 56 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 45 58 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 50 63 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 41 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 39 53 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ227-228-230-231-
235-236.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ222-223-
228>230.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR NMZ219-220-224-225.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...44
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