374
FXUS65 KABQ 221912
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
112 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WILL PLAGUE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THURSDAY, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY.
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE DIFFICULT
CROSSWINDS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON NORTH-SOUTH ROADS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, THURSDAY, SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY,
AND TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
A LARGE AND WOBBLY UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY, STEERING STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SW
AND NM. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THE RESULT, AIDED BY A DEEPENING LEE
SIDE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH A
WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH ON THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND BRINGING 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING
RELATIVE TO TODAY'S TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NM THURSDAY,
RESULTING IN ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO NEARBY FORECAST ZONES GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST
TRENDS. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS AT ROSWELL WILL NEGATE ANY WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SPIKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 90
DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING TROUGH, WITH WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING AND BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW, BRINGING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. WARMER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS EASTERN NM THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPE WARMING, WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH A LITTLE OVER 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO ORIENT
DIRECTLY OVER NM ON SUNDAY AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH EJECTS AND
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS, BRINGING VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. 300MB WIND SPEEDS ARE
MODELED TO REACH 115-120KTS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ON
SUNDAY, WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE (30-50%) FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 58MPH OR GREATER ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND FORCING FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY, FAVORING THE WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR A BREAK FROM THE WINDS ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, FOLLOWED BY A RAMP-UP ON
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF VFR CIGS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25-30KTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, THURSDAY, THIS WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL BRING WINDY AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FAVORING
EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUED VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL BRING BACK THE THREAT
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO EASTERN NM ON SATURDAY,
WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. A
CLASSIC SPRING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR
SUNDAY, WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME CONDITIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST. WINDS
TREND DOWN MONDAY AND THEN BOUNCE BACK UP ON TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING BACK THE POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL TREND UP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND TAPS
PACIFIC MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 66 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 63 22 66 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 37 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 66 28 68 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 63 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 67 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 38 67 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 39 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 35 73 32 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 38 76 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 57 25 60 / 0 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 65 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 39 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 33 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 56 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 36 65 24 67 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 39 64 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 42 71 34 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 42 66 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 40 69 35 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 50 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 46 76 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 43 78 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 46 74 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 42 77 37 78 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 46 75 41 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 42 77 39 78 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 48 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 48 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 82 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 45 67 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 46 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 43 69 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 36 71 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 41 67 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 43 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 37 68 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 37 71 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 39 73 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 68 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 48 78 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 43 74 35 72 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 82 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 78 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 84 41 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 51 83 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 51 84 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 50 83 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 89 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-121>123-
125-126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-106-
109-121>126.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ223.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page