766
FXUS65 KABQ 301116 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
516 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATING IN
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE
HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BELOW CANYONS OPENING INTO THE
RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF INTEREST ARE A CLOSED LOW WEST OF THE
UPPER BAJA PENINSULA AND A BROAD TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WITH THE
AXIS BISECTING WY AND THE BASE MOVING INTO UT. THE FORMER FEATURE IS
BEING DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH LOTS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY STREAMING INTO NM WHILE THE LATTER HAS BEEN STEERED
BY THE POLAR JET. AT THE SURFACE, LAST NIGHT'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
MEANDERING OVER EASTERN NM WITH MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS (30'S TO LOW
40'S DEG F) TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS ALSO IN EASTERN CO, AND THIS WILL SAG INTO NORTHEASTERN NM
WITH THE TWO FRONTAL AIRMASSES BLENDING AND THE BOUNDARIES BECOMING
MORE AMBIGUOUS THROUGH THE DAY. THE APPROACHING BAJA LOW WILL MOVE
OVER THE UPPER GULF OF CA, AND THIS WILL CAUSE THE NORTH-SOUTH
SURFACE MOISTURE BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY CREEP TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
MOIST UPSLOPE HITS THE RATON RIDGE AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS, BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF STRATIFORM RAIN WILL
TRANSPIRE TONIGHT AS THE LOW CROSSES THE BOOTHEEL OF NM, SPREADING
MORE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE STATE. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9,000 FT, AND PARTICULARLY ABOVE
10,000 FT, IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL START TO STACK UP SOME
HEAVY, WET LATE SEASON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING LIGHTER AND LESS
COVERAGE OF STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM. THERE WILL
TEND TO BE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY WHERE UPSLOPE WILL HAVE THE MOST
INFLUENCE. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CLOSE INTO A
LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM REMAINS RATHER STABLE, SOME INSTABILITY IN WESTERN ZONES
WILL HELP SPARK A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY IN WESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE, SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION, AND OVERALL QPF HAS
TRENDED DOWN AS MORE HIGH RESOLUTION CAMS ARE NOW COVERING THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY THROUGH FRIDAY. STILL, MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM LOOKS TO HAVE HIGH 70-90% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 0.5 INCH
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WET, SNOW IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS ABOVE 9,000 FT. PRECIPITATION WOULD LARGELY WANE AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. QUITE A FEW PLACES WILL BE FACING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT MOST OF THESE
AREAS ARE STILL A FEW DAYS TO A COUPLE OF WEEKS AWAY FROM THEIR
MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATES WITH SEVERAL SITES HAVING JUST FROZE WITHIN
THE LAST 10 TO 14 DAYS. ALL THAT TO SAY THAT FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
INTO SATURDAY, IT WILL BE TRICKY TO PINPOINT THE LOCATION OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A RIDGE ALOFT WILL START TO SWELL OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW WILL GET LOST IN IT, LOSING DEFINITION AND ORGANIZATION OVER NM.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE BEST JUXTAPOSED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN, BUT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BREACH NORTHWARD.
THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL START TO FLATTEN INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CA COAST.
SIMILAR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LINGER FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES LOOK TO BEGIN
INCREASING WITH THE GFS/MEX BEING A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THIS TREND
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TRACK, ORIENTATION, AND
TIMING WITH THE NEXT UPPER LOW. THE GFS DRAWS IN AN INITIAL,
PRECEDING PERTURBATION OVER CO WITH ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
BYPASSING NM TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MERGE CLOSER TO SIMILAR SOLUTIONS,
DRAGGING THE REMNANTS OF THE PRIMARY CA LOW AS A TROUGH OVER NM,
OFFERING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
NM ZONES. WINDS WOULD ALSO BE FAVORED TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, SOMETHING THAT THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF LOOKS TO
NOW BE LATCHING ONTO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WOULD START TO GAIN MORE OF
A NORTHERLY COMPONENT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH OVERTAKES NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
LOTS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IN EASTERN AREAS OF THE STATE, CLOUDS ARE
LOWERING AS A MOIST, COLD FRONT IS MOVING BACK IN, AND A FEW
AIRPORTS ARE ALREADY REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS (BELOW 3,000 FT).
MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, SLOWLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO SURGE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS AND CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN THIS EVENING, PRODUCING VERY GUSTY WINDS AT KABQ WHERE GUSTS
OF 35 AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT WILL DEVELOP. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR KABQ TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
GUST WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MDT THU APR 30 2026
LAST NIGHT'S FRONT HAS ESTABLISHED A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED MOISTURE
BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NM WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS ON THE EAST AND
ABYSMALLY DRY READINGS TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREEP TOWARD
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY, GETTING ASSISTANCE FROM A
SECONDARY MOIST FRONT COMING OUT OF EASTERN CO. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN EASTERN ZONES WHILE THE WESTERN
HALF OF NM CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY LOW RH (8-15%). FORTUNATELY,
WINDS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TODAY (GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH)
WITH ONLY ISOLATED EXCEPTIONS. THE COOL, MOIST BOUNDARY WILL THEN
BREACH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NM
TONIGHT, EFFECTIVELY BOOSTING HUMIDITY WHILE WIDESPREAD, SOAKING
RAIN BREAKS OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AND WET SNOW STACKS UP
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND CONCERNS TONIGHT
NEAR ABQ, AS AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND EVENT UNFOLDS (EASTERLY
GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH), BUT THE RISING HUMIDITY SHOULD OFFSET ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE SOME IN EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY, BUT WESTERN ZONES WILL GET A
TURN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL OFFER A
FEW POCKETS AND FOOTPRINTS OF WETTING RAIN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BEFORE DWINDLING TO JUST THE NORTHERN ZONES ON MONDAY.
LIGHTER WINDS AND CONSIDERABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LINGER THROUGH
SUNDAY, MITIGATING THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
BREEZES COULD START TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY
DUE TO AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE MORE INTO TUESDAY. FOR NOW, THE MINIMUM
HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE HOVERING JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS (15-20%), AND THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE PACIFIC LOW,
SO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED SHIFT-BY-SHIFT. LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHERN ZONES BEING THE MOST LIKELY RECIPIENTS OF LIGHT AMOUNTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 39 68 40 / 0 0 20 20
DULCE........................... 66 28 61 29 / 10 20 80 50
CUBA............................ 67 35 58 31 / 5 30 70 50
GALLUP.......................... 70 31 65 30 / 0 0 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 66 37 60 33 / 0 10 60 40
GRANTS.......................... 71 35 61 32 / 0 20 60 40
QUEMADO......................... 68 37 65 36 / 0 10 30 30
MAGDALENA....................... 71 43 57 37 / 5 40 40 40
DATIL........................... 67 40 58 36 / 0 20 50 50
RESERVE......................... 74 36 71 36 / 0 20 30 30
GLENWOOD........................ 78 40 78 38 / 5 30 30 20
CHAMA........................... 58 29 53 27 / 30 40 90 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 41 51 36 / 20 60 90 50
PECOS........................... 62 34 49 30 / 60 90 80 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 59 34 50 28 / 60 80 90 60
RED RIVER....................... 49 27 39 23 / 80 90 90 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 23 44 19 / 80 90 90 70
TAOS............................ 64 31 54 28 / 50 70 80 60
MORA............................ 56 29 44 27 / 80 90 90 70
ESPANOLA........................ 71 42 59 37 / 30 70 80 50
SANTA FE........................ 65 41 52 34 / 50 80 80 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 41 55 33 / 40 70 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 46 58 41 / 10 70 50 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 75 45 60 40 / 5 60 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 77 44 63 39 / 5 50 30 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 47 61 40 / 5 50 30 30
BELEN........................... 78 44 62 38 / 5 60 30 30
BERNALILLO...................... 75 45 62 40 / 5 60 40 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 77 42 62 37 / 5 50 30 30
CORRALES........................ 76 45 62 39 / 5 50 30 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 77 44 62 38 / 5 50 30 30
PLACITAS........................ 71 45 56 39 / 10 60 60 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 74 46 62 41 / 5 50 30 30
SOCORRO......................... 80 49 65 41 / 5 50 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 39 52 35 / 20 70 60 40
TIJERAS......................... 69 40 52 37 / 20 60 60 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 37 52 33 / 20 70 70 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 34 52 28 / 30 80 70 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 34 44 32 / 30 90 80 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 70 36 50 34 / 20 80 60 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 37 49 33 / 20 80 70 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 72 45 54 38 / 20 90 70 20
RUIDOSO......................... 64 39 47 33 / 20 90 90 30
CAPULIN......................... 49 28 42 27 / 90 90 100 30
RATON........................... 53 30 47 27 / 90 90 100 30
SPRINGER........................ 57 33 47 29 / 90 90 90 40
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 32 44 30 / 70 90 100 50
CLAYTON......................... 53 35 49 34 / 60 90 90 20
ROY............................. 54 33 45 32 / 80 90 100 30
CONCHAS......................... 62 37 51 35 / 60 100 100 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 62 37 46 35 / 40 100 90 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 39 52 36 / 40 100 100 20
CLOVIS.......................... 62 41 52 37 / 20 100 100 20
PORTALES........................ 65 41 52 37 / 20 100 100 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 39 52 37 / 20 100 100 20
ROSWELL......................... 72 47 55 43 / 20 90 100 20
PICACHO......................... 70 41 51 37 / 20 90 90 20
ELK............................. 71 39 53 33 / 20 90 90 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
NMZ219.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ213>215-227.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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