035
FXUS65 KABQ 091150 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
450 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 434 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
- NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WILL PRODUCE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES IN THE
AREA AROUND CLINES CORNERS, VAUGHN, CORONA, AND MOUNTAINAIR
TODAY.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AROUND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS
OF EASTERN NM TODAY GIVEN DISAGREEMENTS AMONGST DETERMINISTIC AND
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. AN UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED BY SUNRISE IF
MODELS TREND WINDIER OR BETTER AGREEMENT OCCURS. THE LATEST NBM
AND REFS HAVE PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS >45 MPH AT LESS THAN 20% WHILE
THE HREF FAVORS MUCH HIGHER PROBS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MOS SUITE
(EXCEPT THE LAV WHICH IS STILL BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 50
MPH FOR CLINES CORNERS). A 700MB WIND MAX NEAR 40KT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH TODAY WITH THE CORE FOCUSED FROM NEAR FARMINGTON TO
ABQ AND RUIDOSO. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY NOT ALIGN WITH
THE TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. A MORE CERTAIN IMPACT
TODAY WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WARMING TEMPS 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EASTERN NM.
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS FRONT WILL
HELP TO TREND HIGH TEMPS COOLER WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM.
SURFACE WINDS ARE SHOWN VEERING AROUND QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN NM AND MAY DAMPEN THE EFFECT OF THE
COOLING. THERE IS A LARGE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IN THE NBM
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM AS A RESULT OF THESE
VEERING WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
EASTERN NM WITH LOWS REMAINING 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. CHILLY TEMPS
ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WITH INVERSION
PATTERNS IN PLACE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN NM THURSDAY ALLOWS
TEMPS TO WARM UP TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW LOCALES WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS. ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS POISED TO ENTER
EASTERN NM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT COOLING FRIDAY, MAINLY FOR
NORTHEAST NM. SURFACE WINDS THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN
SATURDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WARMING SATURDAY. YET
ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY ENTER EASTERN NM LATE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN
QUESTION BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE A STRONGER PUSH WEST
TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS ARE HIGH ONCE
AGAIN DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE EAST. ALL THE WHILE, CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR MID DECEMBER WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
40KT RANGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND NEARBY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING. LLWS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AS SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE BUT WINDS ALOFT
REMAIN STRONG. A WEAK NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MST TUE DEC 9 2025
A PERTURBATION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM NEAR CLINES CORNERS
TO VAUGHN AND CORONA. MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITY IN THE 15 TO 20%
RANGE MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ERCS ARE NEAR TO BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE
WITH LITTLE RISK FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH. THE MAIN IMPACTS TO BURNING
OPERATIONS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE POOR VENTILATION AREAWIDE WITH
ONLY POCKETS OF FAIR AT TIMES. MIN RH WILL STAY ABOVE 20% FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST DAYS WITH DAILY FLUCTUATIONS OVER
EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 49 27 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 17 52 20 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 25 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 56 23 59 23 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 28 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 59 26 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 55 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 56 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 66 28 69 28 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 69 29 74 29 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 45 22 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 50 32 51 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 56 32 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 48 28 52 29 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 41 24 45 26 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 47 18 51 19 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 50 22 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 56 31 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 56 27 59 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 33 54 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 29 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 37 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 29 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 23 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 58 23 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 60 32 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 24 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 54 34 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 33 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 61 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 32 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 30 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 28 57 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 32 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 35 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 57 38 56 39 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 59 28 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 61 27 54 29 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 64 28 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 32 54 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 67 33 54 37 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 64 32 52 31 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 31 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 34 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 37 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 67 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 35 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 68 42 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 40 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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