442
FXUS65 KABQ 120020 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
620 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S RESULT IN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT,
AND WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR HYDRATION. MODERATE HEAT RISK
RETURNS SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LINCOLN COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM
MDT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL SLIDE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT TOWARD
THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN
ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS WITH ALL STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS, IT WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN, HOWEVER, THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE GAP
WIND WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE
ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AGAIN THIS EVENING. GUSTS
GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND THIS WILL AGAIN REPLENISH
MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN NM. MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR.
THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER WY ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB
AREAWIDE WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES BY AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST PWAT VALUES NOTED ACROSS EASTERN NM. THIS
INCREASE IN PWAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, BUT
MODELS FINALLY SEEM TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE THAT DRIER AIR ABOVE
500 MB WILL MOVE OVER NM SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM
DEPTH AND LIKELY RESULT IN AIRMASS OR POPCORN CONVECTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AND CAM QPF OUTPUT APPEARS TO CORROBORATE THIS.
HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN NM. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR DOES NOT QUITE REACH AND SOME HIGHER INSTABILITY EXISTS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM EAST TO WEST OR NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 10-15 MPH. THOUGH THERE WILL BE EASTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER INCREASE IN GAP
WINDS ACROSS ABQ AND SAF WILL BE FELT SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE DRIER AIR ABOVE H5 OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE, AND A LITTLE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE CWA. THOUGH THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST, EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER NM, THUS A SIMILAR SETUP
IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. ONE SMALL CHANGE MAY BE THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK DISTURBANCE SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND CO.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HELP INCREASE STORM COVERAGE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS.
DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE, BUT THERE ARE SOME CAVEATS. TUESDAY COULD BE A LITTLE
QUIETER ACROSS EASTERN NM AS MODELS ARE INDICATING DEEPER DRY AIR
ACROSS MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MEANWHILE, WE'VE BEEN WATCHING A
PRONOUNCED DISTURBANCE TAKE THE SCENIC ROUTE AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH, FROM NE/KS, NOW OVER IL, AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT WILL
SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND WEST. BY WEDNESDAY, IT SHOULD BE
OVER AR, BUT ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT IN
SOUTHWEST TX. BY THURSDAY, THESE TWO FEATURES LOOK TO MERGE INTO
AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH NOW LOOKS TO SHIFT OVER NM ON FRIDAY.
THERE'S OFTEN SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THESE EASTERLY WAVES/INVERTED
TROUGHS WHICH WOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON WED/THU, BUT COVERAGE COULD RAMP UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS
TREND DOWNWARD WED/THU IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A BROAD CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING MID-TO-LATE EVENING. THESE WILL MOST
LIKELY IMPACT KROW, AND THEY MAY EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS KSRR.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE AND UPPER
TULAROSA VALLEYS, AS WELL AS THE FAR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A GUSTY EAST WIND WILL ALSO CONTINUE BELOW
CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS EVENING, THEN MODELS
DEPICT IT WEAKENING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST NM
TODAY WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH. MOISTURE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LAST NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR VIRGA AND A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND
JUST EAST OF THE CONTDVD THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROLL OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS, AND THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM
STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AIRMASS OR POPCORN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THOUGH NEARLY ANY
LOCATION COULD RECEIVE A STORM, MOST STORMS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED.
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, HOWEVER. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. STORM MOTION BOTH SUN AND MON
WILL BE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ON TAP THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL VARY DAY-TO-DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD BY A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH
MID WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 99 66 95 / 0 5 20 30
DULCE........................... 54 93 53 90 / 5 10 30 50
CUBA............................ 59 89 57 86 / 0 20 10 40
GALLUP.......................... 60 93 59 90 / 5 30 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 59 88 58 85 / 10 10 30 10
GRANTS.......................... 61 91 59 88 / 5 10 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 61 88 59 86 / 10 30 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 64 86 62 84 / 10 10 20 10
DATIL........................... 60 84 58 82 / 10 20 20 20
RESERVE......................... 56 90 55 88 / 10 50 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 59 92 59 91 / 30 70 40 70
CHAMA........................... 50 85 50 82 / 5 20 20 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 86 62 83 / 5 10 10 30
PECOS........................... 55 86 54 83 / 5 40 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 85 54 83 / 10 30 10 60
RED RIVER....................... 48 75 46 74 / 5 30 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 79 42 78 / 0 30 20 40
TAOS............................ 54 88 53 86 / 0 30 10 50
MORA............................ 52 81 52 79 / 5 40 30 30
ESPANOLA........................ 62 93 62 91 / 0 20 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 61 86 60 84 / 5 40 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 89 59 88 / 5 30 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 92 66 90 / 5 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 93 68 91 / 5 20 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 94 65 92 / 5 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 67 93 66 91 / 5 10 10 10
BELEN........................... 64 95 64 92 / 10 10 10 10
BERNALILLO...................... 66 95 65 93 / 5 20 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 93 62 91 / 10 10 10 10
CORRALES........................ 66 94 65 92 / 5 20 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 94 62 91 / 10 10 10 10
PLACITAS........................ 68 90 68 88 / 5 20 10 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 94 66 92 / 5 10 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 69 96 69 93 / 10 20 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 87 60 85 / 5 20 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 61 88 60 86 / 5 20 10 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 88 59 86 / 10 20 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 54 89 55 87 / 10 20 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 84 55 82 / 30 20 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 58 88 58 86 / 20 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 58 86 58 84 / 20 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 65 89 64 86 / 30 20 20 40
RUIDOSO......................... 58 79 57 75 / 20 30 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 54 84 54 83 / 10 20 10 5
RATON........................... 53 87 55 87 / 10 30 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 53 88 55 87 / 10 30 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 84 54 82 / 20 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 62 89 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
ROY............................. 59 85 59 84 / 50 20 20 5
CONCHAS......................... 63 93 64 91 / 60 20 20 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 63 89 63 86 / 60 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 93 64 91 / 30 20 20 20
CLOVIS.......................... 66 89 63 87 / 20 50 30 30
PORTALES........................ 67 91 64 89 / 20 50 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 66 92 65 89 / 50 40 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 70 94 68 89 / 40 30 50 30
PICACHO......................... 63 88 62 84 / 30 30 40 40
ELK............................. 59 84 58 80 / 10 30 60 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...44
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