866
FXUS65 KABQ 182346
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
- A LATE SPRING FREEZE IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EXPOSED
PLUMBING AND EARLY BLOOMING PLANTS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- EVAPORATING SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, PATCHY BLOWING DUST,
AND POTENTIAL FIRE STARTS FROM DRY LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL AROUND THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS,
WITH THE BIGGEST DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NM TONIGHT TO GENERATE A BRISK
SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WIND, BUT GUSTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 35
MPH. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN GUADALUPE COUNTY. AS A
RESULT, A FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS, INCLUDING SANTA ROSA, CLOVIS, AND PORTALES. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY IN MAY OTHER AREAS AS WELL (MORIARTY, LAS
VEGAS, AND TAOS), BUT THESE AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND
ARE STILL WEEKS AWAY FROM THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE. WINDS WILL
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WHERE A FEW GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45 MPH MAY OCCUR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SNEAK NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO. PWATS OF 150-250% OF NORMAL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL FOCUS OVER
WESTERN NM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF WET STORMS, DRY STORMS,
AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS, WITH THE DRY STORM THREAT GREATEST OVER
NORTHERN NM WHERE 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE UPWARDS OF 20C.
WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, BUT
EVEN HERE AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.1" WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST. PER
USUAL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, BUT WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
OVER AND DRY OUT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY,
TRANSLATING TO AN UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. IT
WILL LIKELY BE A GUSTY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER AND TEMPS
TICK UPWARDS IN EASTERN NM IN RESPONSE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS. WINDS
TURN AROUND TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT DROPS
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY. THERE ARE EVEN LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER
FAR NORTHERN NM EACH DAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE THAT THESE PRECIP.
CHANCES EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
A GUSTY EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY GAP WIND IS FORECAST BELOW
CANYONS OPENING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EVENING AND AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY, TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND CREATING SOME LOCALIZED WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT,
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
TOMORROW, PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. UP TO 9 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR IN UNION COUNTY WHERE GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WEAKEN ON MONDAY AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE
FUEL FOR SOME GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN NM. A FEW DRY STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
BUT 700MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 10C AND MIN RH VALUES
BETWEEN 25 AND 35%, SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINFALL. GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TREK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DECAY DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIRGA
SHOWER OR TWO IN NORTHERN NM ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST WILL LIMIT BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER MID-WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE NORHWEST AND
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WINDS WEAKEN SOMEWHAT ON
THURSDAY BEHIND A PACIFIC FRONT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE DRY AND WINDY
ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEEK AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER. LOW PRECIP. CHANCES WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WETTING RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 33 74 45 76 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 27 70 28 73 / 0 0 0 10
CUBA............................ 30 67 37 69 / 0 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 24 73 36 72 / 0 0 10 20
EL MORRO........................ 32 69 39 67 / 0 5 10 40
GRANTS.......................... 28 71 36 71 / 0 0 5 30
QUEMADO......................... 36 70 39 69 / 0 5 10 40
MAGDALENA....................... 37 66 43 68 / 0 0 10 30
DATIL........................... 34 64 40 66 / 0 5 10 40
RESERVE......................... 31 74 38 75 / 0 10 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 36 77 40 80 / 0 10 10 20
CHAMA........................... 30 63 31 66 / 0 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 39 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 29 67 36 69 / 0 0 5 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 64 37 68 / 0 0 0 10
RED RIVER....................... 24 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 16 61 23 63 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 27 68 30 72 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 26 67 34 68 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 35 73 38 76 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 35 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 33 70 40 72 / 0 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 42 73 49 74 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 40 74 47 76 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 77 46 78 / 0 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 74 49 76 / 0 0 5 20
BELEN........................... 35 74 44 77 / 0 0 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 37 75 46 77 / 0 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 36 76 44 78 / 0 0 5 20
CORRALES........................ 37 76 47 77 / 0 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 35 75 44 77 / 0 0 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 40 71 47 72 / 0 0 5 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 39 74 48 76 / 0 0 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 41 75 47 78 / 0 0 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 68 44 69 / 0 0 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 36 69 44 70 / 0 0 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 29 71 39 71 / 0 0 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 23 72 34 72 / 0 0 5 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 30 66 38 66 / 0 0 5 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 30 69 40 71 / 0 0 10 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 32 68 41 70 / 0 0 20 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 39 69 43 73 / 0 0 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 33 62 41 67 / 0 0 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 30 64 33 69 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 25 70 31 73 / 0 0 0 5
SPRINGER........................ 28 71 31 75 / 0 0 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 28 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 34 69 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 31 66 37 71 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 31 73 41 78 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 68 38 73 / 0 0 5 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 33 74 42 76 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 31 72 43 71 / 0 0 10 30
PORTALES........................ 30 72 43 72 / 0 0 10 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 70 40 74 / 0 0 5 20
ROSWELL......................... 39 71 45 73 / 0 0 30 30
PICACHO......................... 35 67 41 72 / 0 0 20 30
ELK............................. 31 66 37 72 / 0 5 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ104-123.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR NMZ233-235>237.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44
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