689
FXUS65 KABQ 281910
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1210 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1203 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A WINTER STORM BRINGS MOUNTAIN SNOW,
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE STATE. WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL TREND STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY, DEEPENING A WEAK LEE-SIDE
SFC LOW IN SOUTHEAST CO. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE
IN EASTERN NM, WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MTN WAVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, BUT MOST
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A STABLE ENOUGH LAYER FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES TO
CRASH DOWN TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT
AS A DRY PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZE IN MOST AREAS, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS
IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGER.
THE AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ONLY A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY IN MOST AREAS AND
ACTUALLY WARMER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THANKS TO THE CONTINUED SNOW
MELT. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
FRIDAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH PLUNGING DOWN FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
US FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EASTERN NM WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SUGGESTS ONLY A 5 TO 15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP, ALTHOUGH
MODELS HAVE NOTABLY BEEN TRENDING COOLER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BUT IT WILL
SIMPLY BE TOO DRY FOR MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE BY SUNDAY AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE EVEN FURTHER (ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE). THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE. EXACTLY HOW THIS
HAPPENS REMAINS A MYSTERY, GIVEN THAT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. AROUND 30% OF MODELS
KEEP THE AREA DRY, WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING. A MINORITY OF
MODELS (ABOUT 15%), SHOW A DECENT WINTER STORM WITH MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
USHERED IN BY A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST INTRODUCES
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION (55% OF MODELS) AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN MOST AREAS TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO A LEE SIDE LOW IN EASTERN CO. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT
IN AND AROUND THE NORTHERN MTNS AS A SHORTWAVE SKIRTS NORTHERN NM.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME MTN WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
WELL, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SEND A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN EASTERN NM WHERE LLWS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
BETWEEN 03Z AND 15Z IN MOST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NM
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW IN SE COLORADO. MOUNTAINTOP WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE
NORTH BEHIND A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW, WITH A LIGHT BREEZE IN
MOST AREAS, EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE THERE MAY BE A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION TODAY IMPROVES THURSDAY, WITH THE MOST
NOTABLE IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE EAST. VENTILATION BECOMES POOR TO
FAIR AGAIN ON FRIDAY, REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN CHANCES
MAY RETURN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 18 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 8 46 11 47 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 17 44 17 45 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 12 49 13 50 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 20 47 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 15 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 19 47 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 50 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 25 48 23 49 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 21 58 20 58 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 25 64 23 64 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 11 40 12 43 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 22 42 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 21 47 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 41 17 42 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 16 32 13 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 8 39 5 40 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 10 44 11 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 20 47 17 48 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 13 49 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 22 44 22 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 18 44 19 46 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 28 49 28 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 22 54 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 25 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 17 54 18 53 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 24 50 25 51 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 18 54 19 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 24 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 19 54 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 26 46 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 51 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 25 55 24 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 25 43 23 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 25 44 25 45 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 22 44 20 45 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 46 13 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 20 42 19 42 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 23 46 21 46 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 23 46 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 25 49 24 49 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 29 46 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 20 41 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 17 47 14 47 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 18 50 14 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 49 17 47 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 29 49 22 50 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 23 49 19 49 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 23 57 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 25 53 21 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 25 56 20 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 26 53 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 24 54 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 22 54 18 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 19 51 20 47 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 29 52 23 52 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 55 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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