354
FXUS65 KABQ 011808
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1208 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1149 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
- DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LIGHTNING,
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SOME STORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREAS WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, LITTLE OR NO RAIN AT THE SURFACE, AND A
RISK OF NEW FIRE STARTS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHTER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER NM TODAY WITH A
WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH SLOWLY TAKING SHAPE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CA.
THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WAS MODELED TO USHER IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM, AND THIS GOT A
PREMATURE JUMP THANKS TO DEEP OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS IN WEST TX.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO THE 40S AND 50S OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, AND THESE WILL HOLD, IF NOT GAIN A FEW MORE
DEGREES THROUGH DAWN AS SURFACE WINDS TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY IN
THAT SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL
MIX OUT SLIGHTLY INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT A SOFT DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY HOLD INTO AFTERNOON, STRETCHING FROM THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TOWARD UNION AND QUAY COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD
KEEP SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 30'S TO LOW 40'S
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS THAT WILL GROW INTO WEAK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION CAM'S ALL INITIATE STORMS IN
LINCOLN COUNTY NEAR THE WILDFIRE BURN SCARS, BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS PAINT A LARGER THREAT OF DOWNBURST WINDS RATHER THAN
PROBLEMATIC RAINFALL DUE TO SUCH HIGH DOWNDRAFT CAPE (600 TO 1800
J/KG). WHILE A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE MORE IMPACT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY STIRRING UP MORE DUST AND
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A FEW SOUTHERN GAPS. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT RISE MUCH ELSEWHERE TODAY, BUT GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS WILL KEEP RISING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP ANOTHER
COUPLE DEGREES, AND THIS WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE RIO GRANDE WHERE SOME WEAK
VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
A MORE ROBUST LOW LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION SCENARIO SHAPES UP
TONIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW PUSHES HIGHER DEWPOINTS FARTHER INTO
NM. WIDESPREAD 40'S TO 50'S DEWPOINTS WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NM AND ALSO INTO CENTRAL AREAS VIA THE LOWER TO MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE MOISTURE IS NOT MODELED TO MIX OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND DEWPOINTS MAY EVEN KEEP RISING WITH PWATS
ALSO SURGING, GENERALLY AT 0.8 OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND UPWARDS OF
1.0 INCH IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THE NEW-FOUND MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE CELLS PROPAGATE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A POTENTIAL MCV BEING
MODELED OVER NORTHEASTERN NM BY A FEW MODEL MEMBERS. OUR WEAK
UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL GIVE A LIGHT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WIND ALOFT OVER NM ON TUESDAY, JUST ENOUGH TO PRESENT
MARGINAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE CONVECTION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL CAM'S PAINTING A QPF BULLS EYE
OVER THE LINCOLN COUNTY WILDFIRE BURN SCARS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR TUESDAY IS LOOKING ALMOST INEVITABLE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
TUESDAY'S STORMS WILL SEND OUT MOIST OUTFLOWS WEST TOWARD THE AZ
BORDER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT'S NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AND POTENTIAL MCV, THE EASTERN
PLAINS MAY STAY RATHER STABLE AND BLANKETED IN DEBRIS CLOUDS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD PUT THE HIGH TERRAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS THE FIRST TO
DESTABILIZE WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION SEEMING TO FAVOR
THIS AREA FIRST. HOWEVER, MODEL QPF IS QUITE NOISY WITH JUST
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SHIFTING TOWARD EASTERN
ZONES AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN CA TROUGH SLIDES
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AS A VERY WEAK CLOSED LOW. AT ANY RATE,
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CROP OF STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE OF A
DRIER VARIETY WITH LESS EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF NM.
THERE ARE STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF
THE GULF OF CA LOW. IT IS STILL PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD,
BEGINNING THURSDAY, THEN PASSING OVER NM FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE QUICKER SOLUTIONS. LOW LAYER
MOISTURE WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND READY TO RECYCLE FOR DAILY
ROUNDS OF STORMS WHILE THE LOW IS CROSSING, BUT AS IT PASSES TO
THE EAST A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT FLOW WOULD FOLLOW WITH A QUICK
REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. CONSEQUENTLY, MINIMAL POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TX
BORDER. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE MIX WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST IN DUST-PRONE LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS. GULF MOISTURE WILL THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
ENABLING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE, AND ALSO ON THE ADJACENT EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN POTENTIALLY AS FAR EAST AS CONCHAS LAKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL RETAIN THEIR SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY
WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS WHILE YET ANOTHER WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT TO MODERATELY BREEZY SURFACE/20FT WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED BY
THE AFTERNOON, AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ANOTHER COUPLE TO A FEW
DEGREES. VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH OF 5 TO 15% WILL BE COMMON WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER READINGS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE A FEW
WEAK SHOWERS OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP.
A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS STILL SLATED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY VIA RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WETTING STORMS AND HUMIDITY WHILE TEMPERATURES REDUCE
A FEW DEGREES. THE FAVORED AREA FOR WETTING STORMS STILL APPEARS
TO COVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. IN CONTRAST, MOST
STORMS WILL BE LESS EFFICIENT AT RAINFALL PRODUCTION FROM THE RIO
GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WHILE LOW LAYER MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO SURGE TOWARD THE AZ BORDER INTO WEDNESDAY, MANY AREAS
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL UNFORTUNATELY HAVE LOW CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL DUE TO FEWER, DRIER STORMS WITH HIGHER
LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS AND MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB-CLOUD
EVAPORATION. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF NEW FIRE IGNITIONS FROM
LIGHTNING ACROSS WESTERN NM ZONES. A SIMILAR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH THE COVERAGE
DECREASING SOME FRIDAY, AND MORE-SO INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER,
BUT STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT, WESTERLY FLOW SETS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 90 52 90 55 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 86 44 86 43 / 0 0 10 10
CUBA............................ 84 54 83 49 / 0 0 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 84 47 85 48 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 83 51 83 50 / 0 0 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 87 53 86 50 / 0 0 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 86 52 83 50 / 0 0 20 10
MAGDALENA....................... 86 60 82 53 / 0 0 60 40
DATIL........................... 84 54 80 51 / 0 0 50 20
RESERVE......................... 91 49 90 48 / 0 0 20 10
GLENWOOD........................ 95 52 95 51 / 0 0 10 5
CHAMA........................... 79 45 78 42 / 0 0 20 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 84 61 79 55 / 0 0 40 20
PECOS........................... 85 53 79 48 / 0 10 70 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 82 52 78 49 / 0 0 50 20
RED RIVER....................... 73 43 69 40 / 0 0 70 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 47 72 41 / 0 5 70 30
TAOS............................ 85 51 80 48 / 0 0 50 30
MORA............................ 84 52 75 48 / 0 5 70 50
ESPANOLA........................ 91 57 87 54 / 0 0 50 20
SANTA FE........................ 84 60 80 54 / 0 10 60 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 58 83 52 / 0 10 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 91 67 87 60 / 0 0 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 92 63 88 57 / 0 0 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 94 62 91 56 / 0 0 50 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 64 89 58 / 0 0 40 20
BELEN........................... 94 60 90 54 / 0 0 50 20
BERNALILLO...................... 93 63 89 58 / 0 0 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 93 60 90 53 / 0 0 50 20
CORRALES........................ 93 64 90 58 / 0 0 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 93 61 90 55 / 0 0 50 20
PLACITAS........................ 89 64 85 58 / 0 5 50 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 63 89 58 / 0 0 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 97 66 93 59 / 0 5 60 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 60 81 53 / 0 0 60 20
TIJERAS......................... 87 59 82 53 / 0 0 60 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 88 58 82 51 / 0 5 70 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 89 54 83 48 / 0 5 80 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 85 55 77 49 / 0 5 70 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 56 83 49 / 0 5 60 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 87 56 81 50 / 0 5 70 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 90 63 84 57 / 5 5 70 40
RUIDOSO......................... 84 58 77 52 / 30 10 80 50
CAPULIN......................... 82 50 75 46 / 0 5 60 50
RATON........................... 88 51 79 48 / 0 0 60 50
SPRINGER........................ 89 53 79 50 / 0 5 60 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 86 54 76 50 / 0 10 70 50
CLAYTON......................... 90 57 84 53 / 0 10 50 60
ROY............................. 88 56 79 50 / 0 5 60 70
CONCHAS......................... 95 60 86 54 / 0 5 50 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 92 58 82 52 / 10 5 60 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 97 63 90 56 / 0 10 40 80
CLOVIS.......................... 95 62 89 56 / 20 20 30 80
PORTALES........................ 96 61 90 56 / 20 20 30 80
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 61 87 54 / 0 10 60 80
ROSWELL......................... 98 65 90 59 / 0 20 60 80
PICACHO......................... 91 59 84 54 / 30 20 70 60
ELK............................. 91 57 84 53 / 30 20 70 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44
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