721
FXUS65 KABQ 090735 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
135 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
- A FEW HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM MAY PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH CHANCES EXIST FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
ACROSS EASTERN NM, MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER.
- STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND PEAK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. STRONG CROSSWINDS MAY CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
BACKING FLOW ALOFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA OPENS UP
AND MOVES INLAND WHILE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH TAKES SHAPE
OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, WITH HIGHS
REACHING 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL.
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL, FAVORING THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. A MORE ROBUST ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN NM WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE UPTREND. STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM NEAR
THE TX BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY NEAR CLAYTON WHERE A
BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PULL UP STATIONARY AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH UP TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS. THE SPC DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK IS SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN QUAY AND UNION COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THE WANE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY.
THAT SAID, MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, FAVORING AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WHERE PWATS WILL RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID APRIL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50" WILL BE COMMON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH HIGH-END AMOUNTS AROUND 1.00".
PROBABILITIES FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE LOW DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD BUT ARE NON-ZERO, ESPECIALLY IN THE
RUIDOSO AREA GIVEN BURN SCAR CONSIDERATIONS. ANOTHER, MORE POTENT
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN CA DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD, BRINGING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH EASTERN NM MAY BE TOO WORKED-OVER FROM
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO PAIR
WITH INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE AREA FOR ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN NM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED AND SHEAR WILL BE LOWER THAN EASTERN NM. THAT SAID, THE
BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS, WHERE SEVERE STORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DRYING IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS THE BROAD
CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CA STEERS STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA, BRINGING WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
DESERT SW ON MONDAY, STEERING EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
THE AREA AND BRINGING A DEEPER LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE
WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE/HIGH CHANCE THAT
WE'LL NEED WIND HIGHLIGHTS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL TREND
BACK UP LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
SWINGS EAST OVER THE STATE, THIS TIME FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL CENTRAL NM. TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDIEST DAY FOR
EASTERN NM, WITH WINDS MODELED TO REACH 130KTS AT 300MB AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE/WED. THE TROUGH WILL BE
SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR A ROUND OF MUCH NEEDED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS, POSSIBLY REACHING DOWN TO NEAR
7KFT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW STRATUS/FOG NEAR KROW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
INSTORE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS
PROVIDING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-35KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 AM MDT THU APR 9 2026
A ROUND OF MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LITTLE-TO-NO
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL. DRY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY, BUT MORE LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN NM. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE STORY TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEST COAST TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS, BRINGING
ROUNDS OF WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. EASTERN NM
WILL BENEFIT FROM SOAKING RAINS DURING THE FRI/SAT PERIOD, WITH
LOWER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS WESTERN NM. A DRY SLOT
AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY, BRINGING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER, SOAKING RAINS FROM FRI/SAT WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT
LARGE FIRE GROWTH ACROSS EASTERN NM, BUT WESTERN AREAS COULD BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN, THIS TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY, LIMITING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION LATE MON/TUE, MAINLY TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 78 45 77 49 / 0 0 5 30
DULCE........................... 74 32 73 35 / 5 0 20 50
CUBA............................ 73 41 72 42 / 10 10 30 70
GALLUP.......................... 73 35 73 35 / 0 0 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 70 42 70 40 / 10 10 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 75 38 74 38 / 10 10 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 72 40 72 40 / 10 10 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 74 48 74 47 / 20 20 30 30
DATIL........................... 71 43 70 43 / 20 20 30 30
RESERVE......................... 78 38 76 37 / 5 5 10 10
GLENWOOD........................ 83 43 81 40 / 5 0 5 10
CHAMA........................... 67 35 66 35 / 10 5 30 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 48 71 48 / 10 10 40 70
PECOS........................... 73 41 73 42 / 20 10 60 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 69 40 69 42 / 10 5 50 60
RED RIVER....................... 59 35 59 36 / 20 10 50 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 66 26 64 30 / 20 10 60 70
TAOS............................ 73 35 72 38 / 10 5 40 70
MORA............................ 72 38 70 39 / 20 10 60 80
ESPANOLA........................ 79 41 78 46 / 10 5 30 70
SANTA FE........................ 73 47 73 47 / 10 10 50 80
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 44 75 46 / 10 10 40 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 80 54 80 53 / 10 10 30 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 81 51 81 51 / 20 10 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 83 49 84 51 / 20 10 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 52 82 53 / 20 10 20 40
BELEN........................... 82 45 82 48 / 20 10 20 40
BERNALILLO...................... 82 50 82 51 / 10 5 20 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 83 45 83 47 / 20 10 20 40
CORRALES........................ 82 50 83 52 / 20 10 20 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 46 82 48 / 20 10 20 40
PLACITAS........................ 77 52 78 52 / 10 5 30 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 82 51 82 52 / 20 10 20 50
SOCORRO......................... 85 51 84 52 / 20 10 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 74 48 74 48 / 10 10 40 70
TIJERAS......................... 75 49 75 48 / 10 10 40 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 77 43 76 45 / 10 10 40 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 78 38 77 40 / 10 10 40 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 44 72 45 / 20 10 50 80
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 77 45 76 45 / 10 10 40 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 76 45 75 46 / 10 10 40 60
CARRIZOZO....................... 78 50 77 48 / 20 10 40 70
RUIDOSO......................... 71 48 71 45 / 20 20 50 70
CAPULIN......................... 73 37 68 41 / 20 20 60 70
RATON........................... 76 36 72 41 / 20 10 60 70
SPRINGER........................ 77 38 76 43 / 20 10 60 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 75 40 72 43 / 20 10 60 80
CLAYTON......................... 81 45 72 49 / 30 30 60 70
ROY............................. 77 42 75 46 / 20 20 70 70
CONCHAS......................... 86 45 83 50 / 20 20 70 70
SANTA ROSA...................... 81 44 78 49 / 20 20 60 80
TUCUMCARI....................... 86 51 83 51 / 30 20 50 70
CLOVIS.......................... 84 51 82 53 / 20 30 40 70
PORTALES........................ 85 50 84 52 / 20 30 40 70
FORT SUMNER..................... 85 48 83 50 / 30 20 50 70
ROSWELL......................... 85 52 85 56 / 10 10 30 70
PICACHO......................... 81 45 80 48 / 20 20 40 70
ELK............................. 79 44 80 44 / 20 10 40 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page