020
FXUS65 KABQ 231119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
419 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 417 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEK, THREATENING RECORD
HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THIS
UNUSUAL WARMTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN EASTERN
NM IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, WITH LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE.
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN TUESDAY,
PUSHING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO. 700 MB WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SIDE LOW IN THE TX PANHANDLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, BUT THE
HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE OF GREATER CONCERN. THE DOWNSLOPING WIND
WILL ALSO SOAR TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS, WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 80S. THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE THAT THE HIGH
REACHES 80F IN TUCUMCARI ON TUESDAY AND A 50% CHANCE THE THE 80S
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS CLAYTON. DAILY RECORDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST AT A FEW SITES SUCH AS CLOVIS AND PORTALES AMONG OTHERS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
THE JET STREAM WILL DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL ONLY TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS AT THE SFC COMPARED TO TUESDAY, WITH BREEZES
SPREADING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL TICK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH THE COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. THERE
IS EVEN A 17% CHANCE THAT WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST 90F DAY OF
THE YEAR FOR ROSWELL. A SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A BACKDOOR FRONT
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COOLING TEMPS
10 TO 15 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS AS WELL. TEMPS TREND BACK UP LATE WEEK
AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS DRAPED OVER NEW MEXICO. RECORD HIGHS
WILL BE THREATENED EACH DAY IN AT LEAST EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND
POTENTIALLY CENTRAL AREAS TOO BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE MELTING OF THE ALREADY POOR
SNOWPACK AND THERE IS NO SNOW IN SITE TO HELP REPLENISH THESE
LOSSES.
ABOVE NORMAL 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE THAT EASTERN NM EXPERIENCES SOME SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWNS WITH BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. THIS IS ILLUSTRATED BY
THE WIDE MODEL SPREAD IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
SITES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. THE DIFFERENCE IS LESS STARK IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SINCE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVENT THESE FRONTAL INTRUSIONS FROM MAKING IT PAST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 417 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE STATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AGAIN
TODAY, WITH WINDS TURNING AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DRAPES ITSELF ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE DOWNSLOPING
BREEZE WILL INCREASE TEMPS AND THEREFORE DECREASE HUMIDITIES, WITH
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
COMBINED WITH 20FT WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY CREATE SEVERAL
HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE LONGEST DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WHERE THERE COULD
BE UP TO 10 HOURS WHERE RED FLAG CRITERIA IS MET. AT LEAST LOCALIZED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SAME AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL LIMIT THE
DURATION. DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NM
EACH DAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY
DURING THIS LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD, WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 57 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 55 17 56 22 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 28 60 32 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 62 21 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 62 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 63 25 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 65 30 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 62 36 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 32 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 70 28 72 33 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 31 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 21 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 32 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 54 30 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 47 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 52 19 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 57 23 61 29 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 62 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 63 26 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 33 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 29 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 38 68 45 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 34 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 31 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 33 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 64 27 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 65 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 27 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 65 33 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 28 73 37 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 33 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 67 33 77 45 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 34 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 61 30 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 23 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 59 31 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 60 32 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 32 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 35 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 60 38 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 62 31 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 63 26 72 30 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 65 25 73 31 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 64 33 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 36 78 38 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 60 31 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 68 31 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 38 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 35 84 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 62 36 81 46 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 35 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 30 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 62 31 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 37 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 66 36 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ104-123-125-126.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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