988
FXUS65 KABQ 221903
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
103 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME MAIN
STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME STANDING UP OVER THE REGION WITH A PACIFIC LOW ON SLOW
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER HIGH POSITIONED ALONG THE TX
COAST. PWATS ARE RAMPING UP RAPIDLY, REACHING 1.20" ON THE 18Z
KEPZ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND 0.97" ON KABQ. THESE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRENDING UP TO NEAR CALENDAR DAY RECORD
VALUES THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO, CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MX, GETS
PULLED INTO THIS MONSOONAL PATTERN. THE OVERALL VERY WET FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, BUT THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS MODELED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NM THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR CONTINUED HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
PIVOTING NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA PER THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME OF THE WESTERN FORECAST ZONES
WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE WATCH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING GIVEN
THE FORECAST PROGRESSION OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND A RAIN-COOLED LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER. FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON/NEAR THE RUIDOSO BURN SCARS. THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO IS HIGH TODAY AS INSTABILITY
GETS USED UP AND STORMS PRODUCE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. ONCE THE
LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER GETS COOLED OVERNIGHT, RAINFALL RATES WILL
COME DOWN AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO BE MORE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY LONGER DURATION ACCUMULATION VS SHORT
DURATION RAINFALL INTENSITY/RATES. EXPECT A DECREASE IN LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY WEDNESDAY AS
SHOWERS BECOME PREDOMINANT. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL RAMP BACK UP,
ALONG WITH RAINFALL RATES, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WESTERN NM AND
PROVIDES ADDED FORCING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT NORTH INTO COLORADO EARLY
THURSDAY AND LEAVE BEHIND A WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE SAME TIME,
PWATS WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM AS THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME LEANS EAST. POPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN THURSDAY AS A
RESULT AND A MORE LIMITED ROUND OF CONVECTION IS NOW EXPECTED.
THAT SAID, GROUNDS WILL BE SATURATED, SO LESS RAINFALL WILL BE
NEEDED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY. WHAT REMAINS OF THE
PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE
ACROSS NM AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY, INTERACTING WITH LEFT-
OVER MOISTURE AND PRODUCING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FROM RUIDOSO EAST TO
THE TX BORDER. THE PWAT DOWNTREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
WITH THE WESTERLIES BRINGING SOME WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PACIFIC TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE FROM
MAJOR HURRICANE POLO AND BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH SOAKING RAINFALL TO MUCH OF NM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, BUT AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR
CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. DETERIORATION
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SCT/NUM SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH ISO/SCT THUNDER. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SLOW IF ANY IMPROVEMENT. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS AN ACTIVE LATE MONSOON SEASON PATTERN
PERSISTS. HIGH HUMIDITY AND SOAKING RAINS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY SOME WARMING AND DRYING OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN TURNS WET AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE MORE SOAKING RAINS AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 56 68 54 72 / 70 70 70 50
DULCE........................... 46 62 46 70 / 90 80 80 70
CUBA............................ 50 61 49 67 / 80 100 80 50
GALLUP.......................... 51 63 47 70 / 70 90 70 30
EL MORRO........................ 49 61 46 69 / 80 100 80 40
GRANTS.......................... 52 63 50 71 / 90 100 80 40
QUEMADO......................... 52 63 50 70 / 90 100 60 40
MAGDALENA....................... 54 62 53 68 / 100 100 90 50
DATIL........................... 51 60 49 68 / 100 100 90 40
RESERVE......................... 53 66 51 75 / 90 90 70 30
GLENWOOD........................ 58 71 55 80 / 90 80 60 30
CHAMA........................... 46 58 46 63 / 80 90 80 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 61 52 67 / 90 100 90 60
PECOS........................... 50 62 51 68 / 90 100 100 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 49 62 49 66 / 60 80 90 70
RED RIVER....................... 43 55 43 57 / 70 90 90 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 59 39 63 / 70 80 90 70
TAOS............................ 49 64 49 68 / 70 90 90 60
MORA............................ 49 61 50 67 / 90 90 90 60
ESPANOLA........................ 54 66 54 73 / 80 90 80 50
SANTA FE........................ 53 63 53 68 / 80 90 100 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 65 53 70 / 80 100 90 60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 67 57 73 / 90 100 100 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 68 57 73 / 90 90 90 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 70 57 75 / 90 90 90 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 68 57 73 / 90 100 90 40
BELEN........................... 58 69 57 75 / 100 90 80 30
BERNALILLO...................... 57 68 57 74 / 80 100 100 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 69 55 75 / 90 90 80 40
CORRALES........................ 58 68 57 74 / 80 100 100 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 69 56 75 / 90 90 80 30
PLACITAS........................ 56 67 56 72 / 90 100 100 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 58 68 57 73 / 80 100 100 50
SOCORRO......................... 59 68 58 75 / 100 90 80 40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 63 52 68 / 90 100 100 50
TIJERAS......................... 55 64 54 69 / 90 100 100 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 54 65 53 70 / 90 90 100 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 67 51 72 / 80 90 100 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 63 52 67 / 80 90 90 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 54 65 53 69 / 90 90 90 50
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 66 53 69 / 80 90 90 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 69 57 71 / 80 90 80 60
RUIDOSO......................... 54 62 53 66 / 90 90 80 80
CAPULIN......................... 51 65 52 67 / 50 70 90 70
RATON........................... 52 68 52 71 / 50 70 90 60
SPRINGER........................ 53 69 53 73 / 50 80 90 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 52 63 52 67 / 80 90 90 60
CLAYTON......................... 58 71 58 74 / 50 70 80 80
ROY............................. 55 67 56 70 / 70 80 90 60
CONCHAS......................... 60 75 61 77 / 70 80 100 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 71 60 73 / 80 80 90 60
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 76 62 78 / 60 80 80 60
CLOVIS.......................... 60 76 61 77 / 60 70 70 70
PORTALES........................ 61 78 62 79 / 60 60 60 70
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 76 62 77 / 80 70 80 60
ROSWELL......................... 63 78 63 79 / 70 60 80 60
PICACHO......................... 59 69 58 73 / 80 80 80 70
ELK............................. 57 67 56 71 / 90 80 90 70
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ201>234-237>241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page