803
FXUS65 KABQ 142338 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 514 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THIS EVENING AND MONDAY. LIGHTNING, HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND
BLOWING GUSTY WILL ACCOMPANY ANY OF THESE STORMS.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE RUIDOSO
AREA BURN SCARS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
INCREASING THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO, AND HEAT RISK ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA,
FUELED BY RICHER LOW LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE BACKDOOR FRONT THAT
MOVED WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z
KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.95", WHICH IS OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THIS
EVENING AND APPROACH DAILY RECORD VALUES. SO, PLENTY OF JUICE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE
SPC EXPANDED THE DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS NORTH UP
THE RGV TO NORTH OF LOS ALAMOS BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS SHOWING
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1,300J/KG. THE LATEST CAMS SHOW THE ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE
METROS GETTING HIT BETWEEN 3-7PM, WITH A POTPOURRI OF IMPACTS
INCLUDING STRONG/ERRATIC AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST, HAIL, CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MEANWHILE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
HOLDING WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS IN THE FRONTAL LAYER. KSSR IS
CURRENTLY 57 DEGREES AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE
NOTABLE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE LOWER
RGV ARE MODELED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD RUIDOSO LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BRING A QUICK ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
BURN SCARS, BUT IMPACTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.
MONDAY WILL BE WARMER OVERALL, HELPING TO GENERATE GREATER
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP BULK SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE
STORMS AND THE SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM. THE LATEST NAM IS
PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
GETTING HIT LATE MONDAY, WITH MUCAPE OF 2,500J/KG, LIS OF -7C AND
0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45KTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS TUE/WED, DUE PARTIALLY TO GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THAT
SAID, WE CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
LONGER. WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING HOTTER AND THE LATEST GFS MOS
VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE, SHOWING HIGHS OF 101 IN ALBUQUERQUE, 108 IN
TUCUMCARI AND 112 IN ROSWELL! NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE'RE LOOKING TO
CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
HEAT ADVISORIES AND PERHAPS AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS INCLUDING ROSWELL. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS EASTERN NM ON THURSDAY,
WHILE AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN REMAIN HOT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FRIDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
ALTHOUGH STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAN MORE
WET THAN DRY GIVEN INCREASING PWATS. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AND GIVE WAY TO DRIER WESTERLIES NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS
ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BY LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HOT CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU THE WESTERN HALF OF NM, WITH
LOW CEILINGS HOLDING ON TO MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
NM. TEMPOS AND PROB30S FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS REMAIN FOR KSAF-
KABQ-KAEG THRU 01Z WITH ACTIVITY THERE TURNING MORE TO A LOWER
INTENSITY SHOWERY ACTIVITY THRU THE REST OF THE EVENING. THE LOWER
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AND LOWER FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS AT
KROW AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER
NORTHWESTERLIES PUSH INTO WESTERN NM MONDAY AFTERNOON, MOVING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM MONDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SUN JUN 14 2026
GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
STORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL FAVOR STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL PERSIST
MONDAY AND FOCUS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AN END TO DAILY ROUNDS OF
WETTING STORMS AND CREATING GOOD CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHWEST NM. HOT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH. A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY TO EASTERN NM THURSDAY AND RENEW
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS ACROSS THE AREA GOING INTO FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 60 92 55 95 / 10 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 47 85 44 90 / 30 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 52 84 53 88 / 40 20 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 54 89 51 92 / 10 10 5 0
EL MORRO........................ 54 85 52 89 / 20 10 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 88 51 92 / 30 20 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 56 87 55 90 / 10 10 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 84 60 89 / 30 50 20 0
DATIL........................... 57 84 57 88 / 10 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 52 89 50 94 / 10 20 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 55 93 54 97 / 10 30 10 5
CHAMA........................... 44 78 43 84 / 50 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 80 59 87 / 50 40 10 0
PECOS........................... 49 81 51 88 / 50 40 10 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 74 48 84 / 70 70 20 0
RED RIVER....................... 43 66 41 75 / 70 60 10 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 41 72 37 80 / 70 50 10 0
TAOS............................ 50 78 49 87 / 60 50 10 0
MORA............................ 48 76 48 85 / 70 40 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 55 86 56 93 / 50 30 10 0
SANTA FE........................ 54 81 55 89 / 50 40 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 85 54 92 / 50 30 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 62 88 64 94 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 61 89 63 96 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0
BELEN........................... 59 91 60 98 / 40 20 10 0
BERNALILLO...................... 59 91 60 96 / 50 20 10 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0
CORRALES........................ 59 91 61 97 / 40 20 10 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 91 58 98 / 40 20 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 60 88 61 93 / 50 20 10 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 90 62 96 / 40 20 10 0
SOCORRO......................... 64 91 65 98 / 30 30 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 84 57 89 / 50 20 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 56 85 58 91 / 50 20 10 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 86 55 91 / 40 20 10 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 87 50 92 / 40 20 10 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 81 53 88 / 40 20 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 53 85 56 91 / 40 30 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 84 55 90 / 40 20 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 84 61 93 / 40 20 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 76 55 84 / 60 50 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 46 74 49 85 / 70 70 30 10
RATON........................... 47 79 48 90 / 60 50 20 5
SPRINGER........................ 49 80 49 91 / 70 70 20 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 50 77 50 88 / 60 50 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 53 78 56 90 / 50 40 30 20
ROY............................. 51 76 53 89 / 70 50 40 10
CONCHAS......................... 56 84 58 97 / 40 30 30 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 83 57 95 / 40 30 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 84 60 97 / 30 20 40 10
CLOVIS.......................... 57 81 60 93 / 30 10 30 10
PORTALES........................ 58 82 60 94 / 30 10 30 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 84 60 96 / 30 20 20 5
ROSWELL......................... 63 86 64 97 / 30 10 20 0
PICACHO......................... 57 82 58 93 / 40 40 30 5
ELK............................. 54 80 56 89 / 50 60 30 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...24
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