039
FXUS65 KABQ 102322 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO,
ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS AREA. RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO.
- LIMITED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY SLOWLY INCREASES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RISK OF FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING
THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
AIR QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A 500MB HEIGHT OF 596DAM,
DOWN FROM 599DAM A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. HOWEVER, THE MONSOON HIGH
IS STILL ANOMALOUSLY STRONG OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HOT CONDITIONS AND A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR
MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCALES THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE JUST BELOW OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
SO AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION WILL FOCUS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH STORMS MOVING
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN A RELATIVE HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT AND MORE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAN ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BE REPOSITIONED TO OVER THE
GULF COAST AND WINDS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH, TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS NM
AND BRINGING PWATS BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS TROUGHING
ALONG THE WEST COAST ALLOWS FOR A CONTINUOUS MOISTURE FEED INTO
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TREND UP DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PERIOD, BRINGING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT THAT WILL BE
ELEVATED ON/NEAR AREA BURN SCARS. AT THIS TIME, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE TWO MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THE NEXT
SEVEN, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER HIGH
IS MODELED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST OVER NM LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT UPTREND IN
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 03Z, WITH STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SW AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH 03Z, WITH A FEW OUTFLOWS
LINGERING THROUGH AS LATE AS 06Z. FU FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE MAY
BRIEFLY IMPACT KSAF AND KLAM THIS EVENING, BUT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF.
STORM COVERAGE TRENDS HIGHER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FAVORING WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
STORM INTENSITY WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GUSTIER WINDS AND MORE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MONSOON HIGH OVER THE
REGION CONTINUES TO BRING UNUSUALLY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS,
ALLOWING FOR SOME FIRE GROWTH. HOWEVER, THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK,
BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
CLIMB TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST. THESE TRENDS WILL
BRING INCREASED HUMIDITY AND IMPROVED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 65 98 65 93 / 0 0 20 10
DULCE........................... 54 95 53 90 / 10 20 40 40
CUBA............................ 60 92 59 88 / 30 10 50 30
GALLUP.......................... 59 90 57 86 / 40 30 40 40
EL MORRO........................ 56 86 55 82 / 40 50 60 60
GRANTS.......................... 60 91 58 88 / 40 30 50 50
QUEMADO......................... 59 86 57 82 / 40 60 50 70
MAGDALENA....................... 64 90 63 88 / 10 30 30 40
DATIL........................... 59 86 57 82 / 20 60 30 60
RESERVE......................... 57 92 56 88 / 20 60 20 70
GLENWOOD........................ 62 96 60 93 / 20 60 20 50
CHAMA........................... 53 87 52 84 / 20 40 40 60
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 91 62 88 / 40 30 30 40
PECOS........................... 59 91 58 89 / 20 30 40 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 89 56 86 / 20 30 40 50
RED RIVER....................... 49 79 49 76 / 20 50 40 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 44 84 43 82 / 30 50 40 60
TAOS............................ 57 93 56 90 / 30 30 30 40
MORA............................ 55 88 55 86 / 20 50 40 50
ESPANOLA........................ 64 99 63 95 / 30 20 30 20
SANTA FE........................ 63 92 62 90 / 20 20 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 95 61 92 / 20 20 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 98 67 96 / 30 10 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 99 67 96 / 30 5 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 101 67 99 / 30 5 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 99 68 97 / 30 10 40 20
BELEN........................... 67 102 66 97 / 20 0 40 10
BERNALILLO...................... 68 101 67 98 / 30 10 40 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 101 64 97 / 20 5 40 10
CORRALES........................ 69 101 67 98 / 30 5 40 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 101 65 97 / 20 0 40 10
PLACITAS........................ 67 96 66 94 / 30 10 40 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 100 67 97 / 30 10 40 20
SOCORRO......................... 71 102 69 99 / 5 10 20 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 92 61 90 / 30 20 50 30
TIJERAS......................... 64 93 62 90 / 30 10 40 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 95 59 92 / 30 20 40 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 96 56 94 / 30 20 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 91 59 89 / 30 30 40 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 94 59 92 / 30 20 40 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 93 60 91 / 20 10 40 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 68 96 67 93 / 10 10 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 61 88 62 86 / 0 30 20 40
CAPULIN......................... 60 89 59 89 / 20 30 30 20
RATON........................... 57 93 57 92 / 20 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 58 96 57 95 / 20 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 92 57 91 / 20 20 30 20
CLAYTON......................... 67 97 66 98 / 10 0 5 5
ROY............................. 63 93 62 94 / 10 0 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 68 101 68 101 / 10 0 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 97 66 97 / 10 0 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 100 69 100 / 0 0 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 98 67 97 / 0 5 5 20
ELK............................. 62 95 64 94 / 0 10 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-217-219.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...16
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