737
FXUS65 KABQ 301129
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
- MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
- DAILY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AT
VARYING COVERAGES OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OR REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE REGION AND
STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 600DAM AT 500MB BY FRIDAY, CENTERING OVER EAST
CENTRAL AZ. CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, BUT WITH HEAT
SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE RGV,
QUAY AND EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND ANOTHER
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
FRIDAY. TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED CONVECTION WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S AND THE SPC HAS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NM
IN MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK, WHERE THE NAM IS ADVERTISING MUCAPE OF UP TO 3,000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR UP TO 30KTS. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NM FRIDAY MORNING, THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY AFTERNOON, RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TREND UP BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT AND THE SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NM IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK. THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IN RUIDOSO WILL
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND/OR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PROVIDES ADDED
FORCING. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE COLD
POOLING ACROSS EASTERN NM FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, RESULTING IN A GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS MODELED TO SPREAD WEST TO THE AZ BORDER LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, REPLENISHING MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NM AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL NM. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SATURDAY'S
CROP OF STORMS MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP, BUT WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TREND UP
MORE. IN ADDITION, THE THREAT FOR BURN SCAR FLOODING WILL TREND UP
SATURDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AND HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES ANTICIPATED FROM ROBUST CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO MIX-OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM SATURDAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MONSOON HIGH OVER EASTERN AZ. THE MONSOON HIGH
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME SUN/MON, WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION AND WORKING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA BRINGING
A DOWNTICK IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS. WITH THE THE DOWNTREND IN
PWATS AND LOWER STORM COVERAGE, HEAT GETS CRANKED BACK UP AND MORE
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED MON/TUE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE MEAN FORECAST CENTERING OF THE MONSOON HIGH IS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A CONTINUED MIX OF
HEAT IMPACTS AND THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, EXCEPT FOR
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISO/SCT
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CONTINUED
HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE
ACROSS EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF
WETTING STORMS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE WEST TO NEAR THE AZ BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WETTING STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HUMIDITY RECOVERY
WILL IMPROVE AND BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
CHANCES FOR WETTING STORMS WILL DECREASE SUN/MON, THEN RAMP BACK
UP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEAKENS SOME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 96 66 99 69 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 93 55 95 56 / 10 5 5 20
CUBA............................ 92 61 93 60 / 10 10 10 10
GALLUP.......................... 92 61 95 61 / 30 5 10 5
EL MORRO........................ 87 60 90 60 / 30 10 20 10
GRANTS.......................... 92 62 94 62 / 40 20 10 10
QUEMADO......................... 89 61 92 62 / 40 20 10 20
MAGDALENA....................... 91 67 92 65 / 30 20 20 40
DATIL........................... 88 61 89 61 / 30 30 30 20
RESERVE......................... 94 62 96 62 / 30 20 50 10
GLENWOOD........................ 99 68 100 67 / 10 20 50 20
CHAMA........................... 86 54 87 53 / 10 10 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 65 89 63 / 20 10 30 30
PECOS........................... 95 62 90 58 / 10 10 70 40
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 88 57 85 55 / 20 20 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 81 49 78 47 / 20 20 70 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 84 44 81 42 / 20 20 80 50
TAOS............................ 92 58 89 57 / 20 20 40 40
MORA............................ 89 58 84 54 / 20 20 80 60
ESPANOLA........................ 97 64 97 63 / 20 10 20 30
SANTA FE........................ 93 65 92 64 / 10 10 40 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 96 64 95 62 / 10 10 30 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 97 71 97 68 / 0 10 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 99 73 98 69 / 0 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 101 66 100 64 / 0 10 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 99 72 99 70 / 5 10 10 20
BELEN........................... 101 72 101 69 / 0 10 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 100 70 99 67 / 0 10 10 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 101 68 100 66 / 0 10 10 20
CORRALES........................ 101 71 100 68 / 0 10 10 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 101 70 100 68 / 0 10 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 96 69 96 67 / 0 10 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 99 71 99 69 / 5 10 10 20
SOCORRO......................... 102 74 102 72 / 10 10 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 93 66 91 62 / 0 10 30 20
TIJERAS......................... 94 67 93 63 / 0 10 30 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 94 64 92 61 / 5 10 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 96 62 94 59 / 10 10 60 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 93 64 90 59 / 10 10 70 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 95 65 94 60 / 5 10 40 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 94 65 93 61 / 10 10 40 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 98 70 98 67 / 20 10 50 40
RUIDOSO......................... 90 62 90 58 / 40 20 70 50
CAPULIN......................... 90 59 84 53 / 50 40 80 60
RATON........................... 95 59 89 54 / 50 40 90 80
SPRINGER........................ 97 60 91 56 / 30 30 80 60
LAS VEGAS....................... 94 61 87 57 / 20 20 80 60
CLAYTON......................... 99 67 92 63 / 50 60 40 40
ROY............................. 97 65 90 60 / 20 30 80 60
CONCHAS......................... 105 70 98 65 / 10 20 80 60
SANTA ROSA...................... 101 68 96 64 / 10 20 60 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 105 72 99 66 / 5 30 40 50
CLOVIS.......................... 101 70 99 67 / 5 10 40 60
PORTALES........................ 102 72 101 68 / 0 5 40 60
FORT SUMNER..................... 103 72 100 68 / 5 10 40 50
ROSWELL......................... 103 75 104 73 / 0 5 5 50
PICACHO......................... 98 69 98 66 / 10 10 40 40
ELK............................. 93 66 94 63 / 20 20 60 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ219-232-234.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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