538
FXUS65 KABQ 221734 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL IN/NEAR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND ARE IMPACTING KROW. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MODERATE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A
BACKDOOR FRONT. A FAIRLY ROBUST ROUND OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM, FOCUSED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE KGUP, KSAF AND
KLVS. AN AREA OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND
PROGRESS W-SW OVERNIGHT ACROSS CHAVES AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, IMPACTING
KROW WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
IMPACT KLVS, KTCC AND POSSIBLY KSAF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST.
11
PREV DISCUSSION...313 AM MDT MON JUL 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
NOTABLY COOLER AND WETTER TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AS WELL AS AFTERNOON STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE SLOW-MOVERS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE ROLLING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO SURROUNDING
VALLEY AREAS, WITH EASTERN NEW MEXICO SEEING A DROPOFF IN STORM
POTENTIAL. STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST PICKS BACK UP THURSDAY WITH
STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES, AFTER BEING MUCH COOLER TODAY, WILL GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, RECORD BREAKING HEAT IS
NOT IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY...THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS SURGED THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND TO CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING, PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
AZ BORDER LATER THIS MORNING. MOISTURE HAS BEEN RECHARGED BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WITH HEAVY RAIN SOAKING MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE NAM HAS HELD ONTO A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE REIGNITING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND STEADY EAST-
SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE UPPER HIGH SETTING UP
NEARER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOWER NEAR THE
DIVIDE WITH MOTIONS MORE TO THE S/SE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
NM. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
NEAR I-40 AND THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS DUE TO THE SLOWER STORM MOTIONS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST, ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WHERE MAJOR RAIN
SOAKING HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER COUPLED WITH THE BACKDOOR PUSH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TODAY 10-25F ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
TONIGHT...STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER PEAK HEATING TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH, KEEPING SHOWER/STORMS GOING WELL
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NM STRETCHING INTO
LINCOLN, SOCORRO, AND CATRON COUNTIES.
REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER SLIDES FURTHER N INTO UT BY TUE WITH
STEADY N-S FLOW SETTING UP ALOFT OVER NM. THE EAST SEES A DROP OFF OF
STORM COVERAGE WITH THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN BECOMING
THE MAIN FOCAL AREA FOR STORM GENERATION. THIS CONTINUES WED WITH THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SUBTLY EASTWARD NEAR THE NM/CO BORDER, AS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. STORMS
AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THU CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG NW
FLOW SPARKING MORE CONVECTION OFF THE SANGRE'S HEADING SE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS AS THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE STATE. LONG RANGE, MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
FURTHER WEST WITH A REVERSE MONSOON PATTERN SETTING UP FOR NEW MEXICO
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
24/RJH
FIRE WEATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NNE AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
REGENERATIVE STORMS WHILE PUSHING GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. BY THIS AFTERNOON, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ADVANCED INTO MUCH OF WESTERN NM, LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SPREAD WEST WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE, AND
READINGS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ZONES TODAY. THIS WILL ELEVATE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY THE FAR WESTERN ZONES DROPPING AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR GAPS AND CANYONS IN CENTRAL NM.
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STAY OVER MOST ZONES TUESDAY,
RISING BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE ORBITS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NM IN THE COMING DAYS,
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF NM WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE
AND THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL OBSERVE THE FEWEST STORMS THIS WEEK.
A TYPICAL MONSOON REGIME CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LIGHTNING, BURN SCAR
FLOODING AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS REMAINING THE BIGGEST
CONCERNS.
52
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ526-538>540.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507.
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