007
FXUS65 KABQ 252350 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
450 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
- WARMING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE AVERAGE.
- THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS AFTER THANKSGIVING, MAINLY FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK, SHOULD STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST
WEATHER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER TRAVEL
ROUTES OR PLANS, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO BRING
WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING NEW
MEXICO.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NM, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 25-35MPH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LOSE IT'S WESTWARD MOMENTUM THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN ONLY A
LIGHT EAST CANYON/GAP WIND INTO THE RGV OVERNIGHT. PATCHES OF FOG
AND FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NM, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PICK-UP LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO A DEEPENING LEE SIDE
TROUGH. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY WILL PLEASANT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE EAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY FRIDAY, WITH
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO GRAZE
NORTHERN NM ON SATURDAY, BRINGING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DOWN THE
EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EJECTS EAST
OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY, CHILLING THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW. THERE HAS BEEN POOR MODEL RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH INTO AN UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TRACK, BUT THE 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE COMPARABLE
WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PASSAGE THROUGH NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, BUT THERE IS A NOTEWORTHY RISK FOR WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION FOR TRAVEL LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT,
INCLUDING KFMN. LIKE TODAY, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FLIGHT
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN
TO THE GALLUP AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT UNTIL MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, TRUSTED FORECAST MODELS DEPICT PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND AS FAR
NORTH AS THE CAPROCK, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ROSWELL, MELROSE,
PORTALES, CLOVIS, AND FORT SUMNER. THE PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AN MVFR CEILING IN THE ROSWELL TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1053 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A SLOW WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK
THAT WILL TAKE TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, IMPROVING VENT RATES FROM
WHAT WILL BE POOR/FAIR MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY TO MOSTLY
FAIR/GOOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY, CHANCES FOR
WETTING PRECIPITATION AND COLDER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 27 52 27 54 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 17 51 18 57 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 22 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 20 55 20 57 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 27 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 21 58 21 60 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 24 59 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 30 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 27 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 24 64 26 67 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 28 66 29 70 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 17 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 49 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 22 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 24 48 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 41 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 11 46 11 52 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 19 51 20 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 19 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 22 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 28 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 54 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 27 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 24 57 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 23 57 23 60 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 27 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 25 56 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 31 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 30 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 27 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 28 51 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 23 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 55 21 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 23 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 25 54 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 30 56 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 54 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 19 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 20 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 21 56 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 54 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 27 63 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 26 60 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 26 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 29 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 27 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 29 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 35 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 30 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 27 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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