982
FXUS65 KABQ 082323
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS, VERY LOW HUMIDITIES, AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH MONDAY THEN AGAIN THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A WARM STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-40 MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING RESULTING IN LITTLE
TO NO RAINFALL WITH A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, WARMING TEMPS, AND MORE WIND TODAY AND MONDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THRU LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A MOIST 553DM H5 UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S MONDAY NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 AFTER SUNSET (30-60% CHANCE).
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE H5 LOW WILL FILL TO NEAR 566DM TUESDAY WHILE MOVING EAST OVER
SOUTHERN NM. PWATS IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW RISE TO BTWN 0.50
AND 0.65" ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM. DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL ASSIST WITH INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS (50-80% CHANCE). HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
FORCING ALOFT WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE LOW FILLS AND SHIFTS EAST.
THE LATEST NBM PROBS OF WETTING RAINFALL (>0.10") IS 90-100% IN THE
GILA REGION AND WITHIN A SWATH OF EASTERN NM FROM NEAR RUIDOSO TO FT
SUMNER AND TUCUMCARI ENDING TUESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE
OF WETTING RAINFALL IS SPOTTY AND MAINLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WITH AN EVEN DEEPER
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE. A SHARP
NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES EAST AND 700MB WINDS NEAR 35KT SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SWIFT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION WEDNESDAY THRU
SATURDAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, A STRONG WARMING TREND, BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, AND LOW HUMIDITY. MORE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER
HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY IN EAST CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MONDAY EVENING, PRODUCING A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL RETURN MONDAY WITH
MORE STRONG WEST WINDS, SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY, DEEP MIXING, AND DRY
FUELS. A MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NM LATE MONDAY
THRU TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PARTS OF EASTERN NM
WILL BE FAVORED FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 0.10". A BRIEF BREAK IS IN
STORE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FIRE GROWING PATTERN FOR EASTERN
NM THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 26 67 37 64 / 0 0 5 10
DULCE........................... 17 64 26 62 / 0 0 10 20
CUBA............................ 27 65 35 59 / 0 0 30 50
GALLUP.......................... 20 67 31 61 / 0 0 30 30
EL MORRO........................ 29 65 34 54 / 0 5 50 60
GRANTS.......................... 22 70 32 59 / 0 0 40 70
QUEMADO......................... 29 68 35 54 / 0 0 60 70
MAGDALENA....................... 37 69 40 56 / 0 5 60 90
DATIL........................... 32 66 35 52 / 0 5 70 90
RESERVE......................... 28 72 34 55 / 0 5 80 90
GLENWOOD........................ 32 77 37 57 / 0 10 80 90
CHAMA........................... 21 57 28 55 / 0 0 10 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 64 40 58 / 0 0 30 50
PECOS........................... 33 65 36 60 / 0 0 30 70
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 30 62 34 59 / 0 0 10 40
RED RIVER....................... 21 55 28 52 / 0 0 10 50
ANGEL FIRE...................... 18 58 25 55 / 0 0 20 60
TAOS............................ 20 66 29 62 / 0 0 10 50
MORA............................ 34 65 34 60 / 0 0 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 24 72 35 66 / 0 0 20 50
SANTA FE........................ 34 66 40 60 / 0 0 30 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 29 68 38 62 / 0 0 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 71 45 64 / 0 0 40 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 73 44 65 / 0 0 40 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 76 43 68 / 0 0 40 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 73 44 66 / 0 0 30 50
BELEN........................... 28 75 41 66 / 0 0 50 60
BERNALILLO...................... 33 74 43 67 / 0 0 30 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 27 75 40 67 / 0 0 50 60
CORRALES........................ 33 75 43 67 / 0 0 30 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 75 41 67 / 0 0 50 60
PLACITAS........................ 36 69 43 63 / 0 0 40 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 34 74 44 66 / 0 0 30 50
SOCORRO......................... 36 77 45 65 / 0 0 50 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 35 66 40 59 / 0 0 50 70
TIJERAS......................... 32 69 39 62 / 0 0 50 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 27 70 36 63 / 0 0 40 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 22 71 33 63 / 0 0 40 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 31 67 37 59 / 0 0 40 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 31 70 38 60 / 0 0 50 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 70 40 59 / 0 0 50 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 40 72 44 58 / 0 0 60 80
RUIDOSO......................... 40 67 42 53 / 0 10 60 80
CAPULIN......................... 29 70 36 64 / 0 0 10 30
RATON........................... 25 72 32 66 / 0 0 10 30
SPRINGER........................ 24 73 32 68 / 0 0 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 33 70 36 63 / 0 0 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 37 77 45 73 / 0 0 10 30
ROY............................. 33 74 39 67 / 0 0 20 30
CONCHAS......................... 36 82 41 74 / 0 0 30 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 36 77 41 70 / 0 0 40 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 39 83 44 76 / 0 0 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 41 82 48 75 / 0 0 30 30
PORTALES........................ 40 83 48 76 / 0 0 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 34 82 43 73 / 0 0 40 40
ROSWELL......................... 40 83 48 72 / 0 5 40 50
PICACHO......................... 39 80 44 65 / 0 10 40 50
ELK............................. 37 77 42 62 / 0 10 30 60
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123-125-
126.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NMZ104-123-
125-126.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...52
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