993
FXUS65 KABQ 150722
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
122 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY,
INCLUDING TAOS, IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, CREATING STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND STRONG
EAST CANYON OR GAP WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA
VALLEYS BY THIS EVENING.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR AREAS FROM RATON, TO LAS VEGAS, AND
MORIARTY. EVEN COLDER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW PULLING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST CO WHILE LEAVING WEAK
TROUGHING IN IT'S WAKE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO CENTRAL
AZ. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
RESULTING IN THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON AND THE FREEZE
WARNING FOR THE UPPER RGV IS ON TRACK. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND INVOLVES A 2ND LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER AZ AND THEN RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA AS A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT RACES SOUTHWEST ACROSS
NM. WINDY AND NOTABLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THE EXISTING WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST NM IS SUPPORTED WELL BE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE, BUT HAVE ADDED CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE AND WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME BASED ON THE
FORECAST TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP
WIND IS STILL FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER RGV,
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY. THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A DOWNTREND IN FORECAST SPEEDS AT KABQ, WITH
ONLY THE GFS LAMP SHOWING HIGH WIND WARNING-TYPE SPEEDS. THAT
SAID, HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH TO A WARNING AS THERE ARE MODERATE
TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS TO 50KTS OR GREATER, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER THE THE MOUTH OF THE CANYONS. A FREEZE WATCH IS STILL IN
EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
NM. THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO WINDS BEING SLOW TO
DECOUPLE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT POSSIBLY HOLDING ON LONGER.
FRIDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE FALL, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THE EAST CANYON/GAP
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS WILL BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH FRIDAY, BUT WILL DIP BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY MID
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST ACROSS NM GOING
INTO SATURDAY, WITH RIDGING ALOFT AS THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW
PULLS UP STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WRAPS
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM SIMON INTO IT'S CIRCULATION. NEAR-
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING AN EVEN COLDER
NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
FREEZE WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND PERHAPS THE MIDDLE RGV FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS THOSE
FORECAST ZONES EXPERIENCE THEIR 1ST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. THE BAJA
LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL AND OPEN UP WHILE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS TO NM BUT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DUE TO VERY
WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ALL EYES TURN TO THE WEST
COAST TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTH AND BRINGS A STRONGER
UPPER LOW INTO SOCAL BY WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS NM GOING INTO MID WEEK, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
REGARD TO THE UPPER LOW PASSAGE OVER THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT AS DISPARATE AS PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE WETTEST DAY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NM, WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
LIFR CIGS PREVAIL BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NM, BUT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AND ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS AT TAF SITES. A
STRONG EAST CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AT KABQ
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS. AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED FOR KABQ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, BRINGING WINDY
CONDITIONS AND NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET. HUMIDITY WILL BE BACK ON THE UPSWING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION, BUT WITH LOW CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM MID THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 39 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 62 28 65 26 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 61 34 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 59 34 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 35 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 36 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 63 37 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 61 38 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 60 35 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 69 39 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 45 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 33 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 29 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 48 23 48 22 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 20 51 12 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 61 28 59 22 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 57 28 55 26 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 67 37 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 62 35 59 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 34 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 43 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 70 45 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 44 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 71 44 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 70 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 71 43 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 71 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 71 45 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 67 41 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 70 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 70 45 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 62 36 56 30 / 0 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 65 38 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 35 58 28 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 35 59 19 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 33 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 35 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 36 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 70 42 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 35 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 52 29 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 58 31 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 32 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 32 57 25 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 36 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 60 35 57 24 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 69 42 62 30 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 67 41 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 43 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 68 42 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 70 45 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 45 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 77 50 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 70 41 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 69 39 53 30 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ227-
228-230-231.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR NMZ222-
223-228>230.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
NMZ219-220-224-225.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ216.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR NMZ235-236.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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