991
FXUS65 KABQ 192335
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY. BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- FLASH FLOOD RISK INCREASES THRU NORTHWESTERN NM WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
FOCUSED ON FAST STORMS PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND
GUSTY WINDS INCREASES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THRU WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS REACHING PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM THIS HOUR
WILL GIVE WAY TO STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND SOUTHWESTERN NM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE HIGHLIGHTED BY TD'S IN THE 40S/50S
COMBINED WITH ENOUGH REMNANT VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING AND DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE SUPPLYING A MARGINAL
RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THIS AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN INTO WEST-CENTRAL NM. HIRES CAMS BRING THIS ACTIVITY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM SOCORRO TO ABQ TO
SANTA FE AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO'S THIS EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND MODERATE RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SCATTERED HIT-AND-MISS ACTIVITY.
AFTER CLEARING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, TUESDAY
DAY SEES A FAIRLY SIMILAR FORECAST REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. LESS SHEAR WILL YIELD LOWER STORM STRENGTHS
HOWEVER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER
FOCUS REGARDING AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND ITS
INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE UPPER
LEVEL JET PATTERN OVER THE REGION BECOMES SHARPLY AMPLIFIED
WEDNESDAY AS A 557-559DM H5 CLOSED LOW DIGS DOWN THE CA COASTLINE
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ITS GROUND OVER THE TX BIG
BEND AREA AND NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN NM AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.
THE FIRST PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD
FROM THE EPAC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA HELPS YIELD THE FIRST ROUND OF
ROBUST SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AZ AND INTO NORTHWESTERN NM
AND THE FOUR CORNERS AND NAVAJO NATION AREA. WHILE AMPLE SHEAR AND
MOISTURE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY OF ~400-600 J/KG OF SBCAPE WILL
ALLOW FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF FAST MOVING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
OVER WESTERN NM, THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR STORMS
PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO SHIFT STEADILY BACK WESTWARD INTO EASTERN AZ WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS SW-NE FLOW B/W THE H5 LOW AND H5 RIDGE BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL.
THURSDAY SEES THE PEAK POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. A
STEADY STREAM OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A COMBINATION OF A MODEST
AR OVER THE EPAC AND A CHUNK OF POST-TRUDY MOISTURE GETS PULLED OVER
AZ AND WESTERN NM, SPIKING PWAT'S TO THE 0.90" TO 1.10" RANGE. THESE
WOULD BE DAILY RECORD PWAT VALUES FOR MID-TO-LATE OCTOBER. AS THE H5
LOW COMES ASHORE THRU THE DAY THURSDAY, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF A VORTMAX FEATURE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ALSO
REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE MAY BE, LIMITING DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY THRU THE DAY THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED AR AND
REMNANTS OF TRUDY WILL BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A
STREAM OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO FLOW SW-NE OVER WESTERN NM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHIFTING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FAVORING
THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, AND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON STORM TRAINING AND
HOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE LEVELS PLAY OUT, MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF NM WILL FAVOR 0.50" TO 1.00" FOR EVENT TOTAL
RAINFALL WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 0.75" TO 2.00" OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM WHERE OROGRAPHICS WILL ENHANCE
LIFT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2+" WILL FAVOR THOSE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS OF THE GILA NF AND TUSAS MTS NORTHWARD INTO THE CO SAN JUANS.
FRIDAY FAVORS STORMS SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH A SHEARING
WIND PROFILE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THIS AREA THRU THE DAY FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN. WHETHER IT'S AN AI DETERMINISTIC RUN,
NUMERICAL MODEL RUN, OR AN ENSEMBLE SUITE OF GUIDANCE, SOLUTIONS
RANGE FROM A PROGRESSIVE EXIT OF THE UPPER LOW OUT OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS TO A SEGMENT LAGGING BEHIND OVER NM/AZ SPINNING UP FURTHER
MOISTURE THAT CONTINUES PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS UNTIL AROUND 04Z, OR SO. THERE ARE
PROB30S INCLUDED AT TAF SITES IN THOSE ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE MOVING QUITE FAST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT
20 TO 30 KNOTS SO ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
WILL BE BRIEF. A FEW OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 KNOTS, WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF SOME STORMS IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO CLEAR JUST
PAST MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SIMILAR AREAS IS
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LESS SHEAR WILL YIELD LOWER STORM STRENGTHS COMPARED TO
TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PREVAILING LIGHT
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY TUESDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
HELPING TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE VENTILATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LITTLE CHANCE TUESDAY. S/SW WINDS
AND MOISTURE INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC. STORMS WILL FAVOR WESTERN
NM FIRST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, SHIFTING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM FRIDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
FROM FAST MOVING STORMS BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
PASSING OVER THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY MORNING.
DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH IN WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH
LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 48 70 50 68 / 20 10 5 80
DULCE........................... 40 66 38 68 / 40 30 5 80
CUBA............................ 43 66 46 69 / 30 20 10 50
GALLUP.......................... 43 69 46 69 / 30 5 20 70
EL MORRO........................ 41 67 45 69 / 30 10 10 80
GRANTS.......................... 44 70 47 69 / 30 20 5 80
QUEMADO......................... 43 70 47 72 / 40 10 10 40
MAGDALENA....................... 47 68 51 70 / 40 40 10 20
DATIL........................... 44 67 47 68 / 60 20 10 40
RESERVE......................... 46 72 47 75 / 60 30 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 49 77 52 80 / 80 30 40 70
CHAMA........................... 39 60 40 63 / 30 30 5 70
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 65 47 68 / 40 20 10 30
PECOS........................... 42 67 43 72 / 50 30 10 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 43 63 44 68 / 20 30 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 36 55 37 60 / 20 30 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 31 60 31 66 / 20 20 5 10
TAOS............................ 41 66 41 71 / 20 30 5 10
MORA............................ 40 66 41 70 / 30 10 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 45 72 45 76 / 30 20 5 20
SANTA FE........................ 46 66 48 71 / 40 30 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 46 68 46 73 / 40 20 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 52 73 56 78 / 50 30 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 73 52 77 / 40 20 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 47 75 49 79 / 40 20 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 73 53 77 / 40 20 10 10
BELEN........................... 46 75 48 78 / 40 30 5 10
BERNALILLO...................... 50 75 51 79 / 50 20 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 44 75 47 79 / 40 20 5 10
CORRALES........................ 50 75 51 79 / 50 20 10 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 45 75 47 78 / 40 20 5 10
PLACITAS........................ 50 71 54 75 / 50 20 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 74 52 78 / 50 20 10 10
SOCORRO......................... 53 77 56 80 / 50 30 10 10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 67 50 71 / 50 30 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 47 68 51 73 / 50 30 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 44 70 46 74 / 50 30 5 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 72 43 76 / 50 30 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 68 48 72 / 50 30 20 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 45 69 47 74 / 50 30 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 46 69 48 74 / 60 20 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 73 55 77 / 50 20 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 46 69 48 73 / 50 30 0 20
CAPULIN......................... 44 67 44 71 / 10 20 0 0
RATON........................... 39 72 39 74 / 10 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 39 74 39 76 / 20 10 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 67 42 72 / 30 10 0 20
CLAYTON......................... 50 74 51 77 / 5 10 0 0
ROY............................. 46 72 44 75 / 20 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 50 78 51 82 / 20 20 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 49 74 50 78 / 30 30 10 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 51 79 54 83 / 10 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 49 77 54 82 / 5 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 49 77 54 82 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 49 76 53 81 / 10 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 49 79 54 82 / 5 10 5 0
PICACHO......................... 48 75 50 79 / 30 30 5 0
ELK............................. 48 76 50 79 / 20 30 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...23
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