434
FXUS65 KABQ 020516
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1116 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD AND LARGE FIRE GROWTH THURSDAY.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AGAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AND THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, BUT LARGE
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH 1500-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25-30KTS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL
SHIFT INTO WEST TEXAS BY 03Z, THEN A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW. SMOKE FROM THE SACATON FIRE IN THE GILA WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. SMOKE/HAZE MAY BE
NOTED THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ABQ METRO.
ON THURSDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH FARTHER INTO NM, LIMITING
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TO AREAS FROM THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN TODAY, HOWEVER,
DCAPE VALUES SOARING OVER 2500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON SUGGESTS
THAT VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DIMINISH BY 03Z. ELSEWHERE,
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS IT SEEPS
UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, STORMS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER AND ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHICH
INCREASES THE RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING.
ON SUNDAY, A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
NUDGE INTO NORTHEAST NM WITH MOIST, LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BEHIND IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON BOTH ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE IT STALLS - LIKELY NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL THEN EXPAND AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. MOST MODELS ARE PROJECTING A DISTURBANCE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA ON SATURDAY AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AZ AND INTO NM. WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE AND MOISTURE MAY ARRIVE TOO LATE FOR STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NM ON SUNDAY, HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD
AND IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NM
ON MONDAY. ANY OUTFLOWS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM THE STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL ALSO HELP
RAISE MOISTURE FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN INITIALLY THEN MOVING
OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE THE MONSOON!
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KROW IN SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT KABQ/KAEG AND KFMN, ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR EVEN WITH SMOKE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NM WHERE VERY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. UP TO 12 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY
IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THURSDAY, THE DRIER AIR THAT IS PUSHING INTO
WESTERN NM TODAY WILL PUSH A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD. BETWEEN 12 AND
18 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NM ON
THURSDAY, WHILE UP TO 8 HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
AND THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
JUST ENOUGH ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, OWING MAINLY TO A BETTER
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, TO ALLOW FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, THE ABYSMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A FEW BREEZES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER NM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT STORM COVERAGE WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 52 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 40 87 40 89 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 51 87 52 88 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 43 86 44 88 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 48 85 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 47 90 49 91 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 50 88 51 88 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 89 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 53 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 45 91 46 94 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 52 95 53 98 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 42 81 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 59 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 53 86 53 88 / 10 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 84 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 39 81 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 33 79 34 81 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 48 86 48 88 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 51 85 51 88 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 93 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 97 60 98 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 62 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 58 97 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 62 95 62 97 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 56 96 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 62 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 96 59 97 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 62 91 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 61 95 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 99 65 100 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 57 91 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 53 91 54 93 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 91 51 93 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 54 86 54 88 / 5 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 57 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 62 92 62 93 / 0 5 5 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 85 57 86 / 0 20 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 88 53 90 / 5 0 0 0
RATON........................... 52 91 51 93 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 54 93 52 95 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 95 63 98 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 58 91 58 93 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 63 99 64 101 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 61 94 61 96 / 5 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 66 98 67 100 / 10 10 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 65 93 66 96 / 40 20 20 0
PORTALES........................ 65 94 66 97 / 50 20 20 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 95 65 98 / 10 10 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 67 96 68 99 / 30 20 10 0
PICACHO......................... 61 92 60 94 / 10 20 10 10
ELK............................. 59 90 58 91 / 10 30 10 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11
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