596
FXUS65 KABQ 121138 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE
RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND COOL TO NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE UPPER-HIGH HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND AMPLIFIED OVER THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT, PLACING EASTERLY FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. WHILE
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE PUSHED SFC
MOISTURE WESTWARD, DRY AIR IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS CURRENTLY
ROTATING INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WON'T HAVE A HUGE
IMPACT ON THE OVERALL PWATS, BUT THIS DRY LAYER WILL SQUASH
CONVECTION AND KEEP RAINFALL INTENSITY RATHER LOW TODAY. ISOLATED
POPCORN TYPE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALMOST ANYWHERE TODAY, BUT WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL AS STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS, WITH ONLY VERY LOCALIZED ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS.
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-HIGH
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO SUNDAY, BUT MOISTURE WILL TREND UP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THERE. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE 60S AND PWATS UP
OVER 1.5". THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FAVORING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST SLOPES. THAT BEING SAID, DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OVER WEST TEXAS COULD HELP TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION AND THEREFORE RAINFALL RATES. FURTHERMORE, STORM
MOTION WILL BE FAVORABLE TO PREVENT STORMS FROM ANCHORING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING AREA BURN SCARS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A BROAD RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MOISTURE ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND IT. THE MAIN
PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
ARIZONA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MOST OF THE WEEK SO EACH DAY WILL BE TYPICAL FOR
JULY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THE WEEK, FROM NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LATE WEEK.
AN EASTERLY WAVE HAS BEEN PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO
TEXAS ON THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
ON FRIDAY. ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
FEATURE, TRANSLATING TO HIGHER CHANCES OF DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING
NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, BUT GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING PWATS 100-150% OF NORMAL OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NM AS WELL. THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS FALLING SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
MID-WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE MONSOON HIGH WILL SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY
FAVOR EASTERN NM, BUT COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE AROUND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY BETWEEN ROUGHLY 18Z AND 02Z. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT THE INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED BY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.
A STRONG SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS LIKELY ALONG THE RGV AGAIN THIS
EVENING DUE TO OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS IN EASTERN NM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THAT AN AWW WILL BE NEEDED AT KABQ.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HUMIDITY TRENDS UP 5 TO 15 PERCENT TODAY AROUND THE REGION AS
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINFALL,
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAINING THE MAIN HAZARD. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER
EACH DAY AS WELL, DROPPING DOWN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES MID-WEEK AND
EVENTUALLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES LATE WEEK. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL
BRING MORE MOISTURE LATE WEEK, INCREASING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 99 69 96 65 / 5 20 30 30
DULCE........................... 95 52 92 50 / 10 20 50 30
CUBA............................ 89 58 86 57 / 20 5 40 10
GALLUP.......................... 93 56 90 56 / 30 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 89 58 86 57 / 10 20 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 92 59 89 57 / 20 20 10 20
QUEMADO......................... 89 59 87 58 / 30 30 20 30
MAGDALENA....................... 87 63 85 62 / 20 20 10 20
DATIL........................... 84 60 83 59 / 20 20 20 20
RESERVE......................... 91 55 90 55 / 50 20 50 20
GLENWOOD........................ 94 57 93 57 / 70 40 50 40
CHAMA........................... 87 49 84 48 / 20 10 60 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 87 64 84 63 / 10 10 30 5
PECOS........................... 85 55 83 54 / 40 20 30 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 86 55 84 54 / 30 5 60 10
RED RIVER....................... 76 46 75 46 / 30 10 60 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 80 42 78 41 / 30 10 40 5
TAOS............................ 88 52 86 51 / 30 5 50 10
MORA............................ 82 52 80 52 / 40 30 30 10
ESPANOLA........................ 94 61 92 60 / 20 10 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 86 61 84 60 / 40 10 40 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 90 59 88 58 / 30 10 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 67 92 66 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 64 93 64 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 64 95 63 / 20 30 10 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 67 93 66 / 20 20 10 20
BELEN........................... 96 63 94 62 / 20 30 10 30
BERNALILLO...................... 97 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 95 61 94 61 / 20 30 10 30
CORRALES........................ 97 65 95 65 / 20 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 96 63 94 63 / 20 30 10 30
PLACITAS........................ 92 66 90 66 / 20 20 10 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 96 66 94 65 / 20 20 20 20
SOCORRO......................... 98 69 96 68 / 20 10 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 88 60 86 60 / 20 20 10 20
TIJERAS......................... 89 60 87 60 / 20 20 10 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 89 57 87 56 / 20 20 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 53 88 53 / 20 20 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 55 82 55 / 20 20 10 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 88 56 87 56 / 20 20 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 57 85 57 / 20 20 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 63 88 61 / 20 10 40 5
RUIDOSO......................... 81 56 78 55 / 30 20 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 81 53 81 54 / 20 10 5 0
RATON........................... 86 53 86 54 / 30 20 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 88 55 87 56 / 30 30 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 56 82 55 / 20 30 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 89 61 87 61 / 20 10 5 0
ROY............................. 85 59 84 59 / 20 30 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 93 63 91 63 / 20 30 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 88 61 86 61 / 20 20 10 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 93 64 90 64 / 20 20 10 10
CLOVIS.......................... 92 64 88 63 / 50 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 93 64 89 63 / 50 20 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 64 89 63 / 40 10 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 94 67 89 66 / 30 30 30 50
PICACHO......................... 89 61 85 60 / 30 30 30 40
ELK............................. 86 57 82 57 / 30 40 40 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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