704
FXUS65 KABQ 120002 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 544 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO MID TO LATE WEEK, INCLUDING THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE KABQ 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A 500MB HEIGHT OF 596DAM,
WHICH IS THE SAME HEIGHT AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
OPENING UP THE DOOR TO MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH. THE PWAT
HAS ALREADY INCREASED TO 1.01" AT KABQ, BUT IS FORECAST TO TREND
UP TO OVER 1.10" BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING. TODAY'S CROP OF DAYTIME HEATING INITIATED
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR SMALLER WETTING RAIN (>0.10") FOOTPRINTS AND
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS THAT MAY POKE UP INTO THE 50-60MPH RANGE
GIVEN DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1600-2000J/KG. SAME WITH WEDNESDAY'S
CROP, ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD LARGER WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINTS GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS. STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER HIGH TO THE EAST, BUT WON'T BE IN A HURRY
GIVEN MEAN 700-500MB SPEEDS AROUND 10-15MPH. THE SLIGHT UPWARD
BUMP IN PWATS AND RELATIVE SLOW STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2" ON WEDNESDAY.
PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL BE THE AREA MORE LIKELY TO SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
PWATS CONTINUE TO CLIMB ACROSS THE REGION FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, RISING UP ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID AUGUST AND
POTENTIALLY APPROACHING CALENDAR DAY RECORDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR THU/FRI IS THE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE UPPER GULF COAST STATES AND TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST,
ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUED FEED OF MOISTURE INTO NM FROM THE SOUTH.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP THU/FRI FROM SW TO NE GIVEN
700-500MB LAYER MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT SOMEWHAT, BUT WITH THE HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS THE THREAT WON'T BE TOTALLY
CONFINED TO AREA BURN SCARS. SIMILAR OVERALL SETUP GOING INTO
SATURDAY AND WITH INCREASINGLY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE EASIER TO PRODUCE. THIS IS A "MONSOON BURST"-TYPE
PATTERN THAT SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO NOTABLE/SIGNIFICANT AND MUCH-
NEEDED RAINFALL IN BUCKETS OVER SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND DOWN DURING THE THU-SAT PERIOD AND BE NEAR/BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NM FOR A WELCOMED CHANGE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A GRADUAL
DOWNTREND IN DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES
BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE MOST AREAS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, THEN
SPOTTIER CELLS WILL PROBABLY LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS. STORM MOTION THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST
AROUND 5-10 MPH, BUT SOME CELLS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD. STORM
MOTION WEDNESDAY WILL MOSTLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20
MPH. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY, WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE
REPLACED WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND IMPROVING CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE MONSOON HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO NM. HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL IMPROVE AND BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MONSOON
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY AND DAILY ROUNDS OF
WETTING STORMS AND AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 93 63 86 / 20 20 50 30
DULCE........................... 53 89 52 83 / 30 40 50 60
CUBA............................ 58 87 57 81 / 40 30 70 40
GALLUP.......................... 57 86 56 81 / 40 50 60 60
EL MORRO........................ 55 82 54 76 / 50 60 60 70
GRANTS.......................... 57 87 56 81 / 40 60 50 70
QUEMADO......................... 57 82 57 76 / 40 70 60 70
MAGDALENA....................... 63 87 61 81 / 30 40 20 80
DATIL........................... 57 81 56 77 / 30 60 30 70
RESERVE......................... 56 87 56 80 / 20 60 40 80
GLENWOOD........................ 60 92 60 84 / 20 30 40 80
CHAMA........................... 52 83 50 76 / 30 60 50 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 87 61 82 / 30 40 40 50
PECOS........................... 58 89 57 84 / 10 20 20 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 86 55 81 / 30 40 50 40
RED RIVER....................... 48 77 47 72 / 40 60 40 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 43 82 41 77 / 20 50 40 70
TAOS............................ 56 89 55 84 / 20 30 40 30
MORA............................ 55 86 54 82 / 10 40 20 60
ESPANOLA........................ 63 95 61 89 / 30 20 50 30
SANTA FE........................ 62 89 60 84 / 20 20 30 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 92 59 87 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 67 96 66 89 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 68 95 66 89 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 98 65 91 / 20 20 20 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 96 67 90 / 20 20 20 30
BELEN........................... 66 97 65 91 / 20 20 20 20
BERNALILLO...................... 66 97 66 91 / 20 20 20 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 64 96 63 90 / 20 20 20 20
CORRALES........................ 67 97 66 91 / 20 20 20 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 65 96 64 90 / 20 20 20 20
PLACITAS........................ 66 93 65 88 / 20 20 20 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 67 96 66 90 / 20 20 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 69 98 67 91 / 20 20 20 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 61 89 59 83 / 30 20 20 30
TIJERAS......................... 62 90 61 85 / 30 20 20 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 59 91 58 86 / 30 30 20 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 93 56 88 / 20 20 20 30
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 89 58 84 / 20 20 30 30
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 91 58 85 / 30 30 20 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 90 59 84 / 30 20 20 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 93 66 87 / 5 10 20 20
RUIDOSO......................... 62 85 60 81 / 10 30 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 89 57 86 / 10 5 20 40
RATON........................... 57 93 56 89 / 10 10 20 40
SPRINGER........................ 57 95 57 91 / 10 10 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 57 90 57 86 / 10 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 66 98 65 95 / 0 0 0 20
ROY............................. 62 93 61 91 / 5 5 10 20
CONCHAS......................... 68 101 68 99 / 5 0 10 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 96 67 94 / 5 0 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 70 102 70 100 / 0 0 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 68 100 69 97 / 0 0 10 5
PORTALES........................ 69 101 70 98 / 0 0 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 69 100 69 97 / 0 5 10 10
ROSWELL......................... 72 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 5
PICACHO......................... 67 96 67 92 / 0 30 20 30
ELK............................. 64 93 63 87 / 10 30 20 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...44
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