123
FXUS65 KABQ 111127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 422 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
NEARBY HIGHLANDS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, SATURDAY, MONDAY,
AND TUESDAY WILL CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES FOR LARGE AND
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE CA COAST. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO NEAR
1000MB OVER NORTHEAST NM. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA WHILE THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SUGGESTS GUSTS OF 45 MPH AS
A REASONABLE HIGH-END SCENARIO. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO WARM MAX
TEMPS UP TO 25F ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN NM WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS
LIKELY. CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE NEAR-RECORDS.
THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE GREAT PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER BACKDOOR "COLD" FRONT AND COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST NM. READINGS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 15F ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE WITH A FEW MORE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NM.
A 45-55KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING OVER CENTRAL NM SATURDAY
WILL HELP TO TREND NORTHWEST WINDS EVEN STRONGER ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. EXPECTED WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES HINTING AT 40 TO 50 MPH
GUSTS. THIS MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE
VEHICLES TRAVELING ACROSS THE PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN
NM WILL WARM HIGH TEMPS 15 TO 20F ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH
MORE NEAR-RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
A MORE NOTEWORTHY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHEAST NM
SATURDAY EVENING AS A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH DOWN THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS FRONT MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH WEST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE RGV SUNDAY MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE IS
STILL SHOWING LIGHT GAP WINDS FOR THE ABQ METRO BUT THE NBM HIGH-
END SCENARIO ALREADY SHOWS GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS FRONT
WILL HELP TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO EASTERN NM SUNDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT MODEL SPREAD IS STILL RATHER HIGH. THESE
AIRMASSES WITH SUCH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH TEND TO PRODUCE STRONGER
WINDS AND COLDER TEMPS THAN MODELS EXPECT, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
NM. DESPITE TEMPS TRENDING 15 TO 20F COOLER SUNDAY THESE READINGS
ARE STILL JUST NEAR NORMAL FOR EASTERN NM. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PENETRATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE
CA COASTLINE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THESE WAVES ARE SHOWN
SLIDING OVER NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS MORE WIND. SURFACE WINDS MAY STAY
BREEZY ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MONDAY THEN TREND EVEN STRONGER
TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW PASSAGE. ALL IN ALL,
TEMPS WILL LIKELY JUST REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS IN STORE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AIRSPACE. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 35KT WILL FOCUS ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND NEARBY HIGHLANDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1242 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER TODAY ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF
EASTERN NM WHERE MIN RH FALLS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20%. FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND HIGHER RH OVER EASTERN NM. STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY WITH MIN RH BETWEEN 15 AND 20%
AGAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NM. A STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND HIGHER RH THRU SUNDAY. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN POOR THRU THE
WEEKEND WITH POCKETS OF FAIR RATES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 27 52 26 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 56 20 57 20 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 56 26 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 61 18 60 20 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 60 29 60 29 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 63 21 63 20 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 60 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 63 35 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 62 32 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 71 27 71 26 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 75 26 75 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 26 54 23 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 36 55 33 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 65 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 56 31 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 27 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 56 18 55 19 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 59 20 58 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 66 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 29 62 28 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 36 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 38 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 35 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 29 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 64 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 62 23 63 21 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 64 33 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 23 63 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 65 33 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 63 24 63 22 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 59 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 34 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 36 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 35 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 58 34 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 32 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 62 26 62 23 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 31 57 31 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 62 31 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 63 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 63 39 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 69 32 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 70 25 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 71 23 61 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 33 60 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 74 38 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 72 32 58 27 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 76 33 63 29 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 34 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 78 33 63 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 73 39 65 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 75 38 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 36 66 30 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 75 39 70 32 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 74 42 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 74 40 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...42
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