652
FXUS65 KABQ 210831
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
231 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
- GREATER STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, AS WELL AS A RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-MAJOR HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
A 598 DAM HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER WESTERN CO TODAY WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NM ON SATURDAY.
THIS POSITION WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WHILE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE HELP SPARK SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. STORM'S TODAY WILL
GENERALLY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST, BUT THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS SO
WEEK A LOT OF STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND IN VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.
ON SATURDAY, STORMS SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL VARY
AROUND 5-11 DEGREES ABOVE 1991-2020 AVERAGES WITH NEAR-RECORD
READINGS IN NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105
DEGREES IS FORECAST FOR TUCUMCARI ON SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD BEAT
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 103 F SET IN 2024.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MODELS DEPICT THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT VARYING ITS
POSITION OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, THEN SHIFT IT WESTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST NM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD, THE NUMBER OF
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
AFTER DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BACKDOOR
FRONTS WILL INCREASE GULF MOISTURE, CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND
DOWNWARD AND STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE (MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DISTURBANCES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NM MONDAY, THEN MORE-SO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING BY 09Z. ON FRIDAY, SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND VARIABLE. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS WITH
LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SUB-15 PERCENT MINIMUM HUMIDITY IS FORECAST OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST CORNERS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY
LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH EACH
DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE HUMIDITY IMPROVEMENT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE MANY WESTERN READINGS REMAIN CRITICALLY
LOW. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, WHICH WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD TODAY
AND SATURDAY NORTH AND WEST, AND AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 98 64 94 64 / 0 30 5 10
DULCE........................... 93 50 90 51 / 40 40 50 40
CUBA............................ 89 58 88 59 / 10 20 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 91 57 90 57 / 40 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 87 57 86 57 / 40 10 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 90 59 89 59 / 40 10 50 20
QUEMADO......................... 88 59 87 58 / 40 10 50 20
MAGDALENA....................... 88 64 89 64 / 40 10 20 5
DATIL........................... 85 59 86 59 / 40 10 30 10
RESERVE......................... 94 59 92 59 / 20 10 30 20
GLENWOOD........................ 98 64 97 63 / 10 10 20 20
CHAMA........................... 86 52 84 52 / 40 20 50 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 89 63 88 63 / 10 20 30 20
PECOS........................... 88 58 88 58 / 20 10 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 87 57 86 58 / 40 10 40 20
RED RIVER....................... 78 49 77 49 / 50 10 60 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 83 41 81 42 / 50 10 60 20
TAOS............................ 91 55 90 56 / 40 10 30 20
MORA............................ 86 54 86 54 / 30 10 50 20
ESPANOLA........................ 96 62 94 63 / 20 10 10 20
SANTA FE........................ 90 63 90 64 / 20 20 5 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 93 61 92 61 / 10 20 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 96 69 95 70 / 10 20 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 96 67 96 68 / 10 20 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 98 66 98 67 / 10 20 0 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 97 68 96 69 / 10 20 5 10
BELEN........................... 98 65 98 66 / 10 10 0 5
BERNALILLO...................... 98 67 97 68 / 10 20 5 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 98 64 97 65 / 10 10 0 5
CORRALES........................ 98 68 97 69 / 10 20 0 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 97 66 97 67 / 10 10 0 5
PLACITAS........................ 94 66 94 67 / 10 20 5 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 97 68 96 68 / 10 20 5 10
SOCORRO......................... 99 69 99 70 / 10 10 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 89 62 89 62 / 20 20 5 10
TIJERAS......................... 90 63 91 64 / 20 20 5 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 92 58 92 59 / 20 10 10 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 93 56 93 57 / 20 10 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 60 89 61 / 20 10 10 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 91 59 91 60 / 20 10 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 90 60 91 61 / 20 10 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 93 66 93 66 / 20 5 10 0
RUIDOSO......................... 85 60 85 59 / 40 10 30 0
CAPULIN......................... 89 59 89 59 / 10 10 20 20
RATON........................... 93 57 92 57 / 10 10 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 95 56 95 57 / 10 10 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 90 57 90 58 / 10 10 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 97 67 98 67 / 10 10 5 10
ROY............................. 93 62 94 63 / 10 10 5 20
CONCHAS......................... 101 67 101 69 / 20 20 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 96 64 98 66 / 20 20 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 101 68 101 69 / 20 20 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 99 68 100 69 / 20 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 100 69 101 70 / 20 20 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 99 68 101 69 / 20 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 102 70 102 70 / 10 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 95 65 96 65 / 10 10 5 0
ELK............................. 92 61 92 62 / 10 10 5 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page