313
FXUS65 KABQ 252008
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
208 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE
STRONG AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- DRY AND WINDY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING THE
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.
- THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-INDUCED ILLNESS IN EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK WESTERLY SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN EASTERN AZ WILL TREK EASTWARD
INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE FOCUSING ALONG THIS WAVE. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT KABQ SHOWS A
PWAT OF 0.92", WHICH IS THE HIGHEST TO DATE THUS FAR IN 2026. AS A
RESULT OF THIS INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD BASES WILL BE LOWER AND
RAINFALL WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THAT DOES NOT GET US OUT OF THE CLEAR IN TERMS OF STRONG OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC WITH OVER 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE FORECAST IN
WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRONGER STORMS, BUT HI-
RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG COLD POOLS,
WHICH WILL CLUSTER TOGETHER AND PRODUCE STRONG AND LONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 55 MPH RANGE. THERE IS
AROUND A 10% OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WITHIN 30 MILES OF ANY
GIVEN LOCATION PER THE HREF. DESPITE THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE, THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL RATES SO FLASH FLOODING IS
UNLIKELY TODAY. FURTHERMORE, WEST TO EAST STORM MOTIONS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM BECOMING TERRAIN TIED, WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 0.75" A REASONABLE HIGH-END RAINFALL TOTAL FOR MOST AREAS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN MCS OVER KANSAS WILL SEND A BOUNDARY
INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY INITIATING ADDITIONAL,
STRONGER STORMS. THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD ONLY FOCUS OVER THE NE
CORNER OF THE STATE AND SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS COULD PERSIST IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG THE AFORMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE DECOUPLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECREASE THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG WINDS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
THE ELONGATED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING OF A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. PWATS WILL DECREASE AROUND 0.2" FROM TODAY, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SAME
AREAS AS TODAY. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE
THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE. MOST
STORMS WILL STILL BE OF THE WETTER VARIETY, BUT THE DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MAKE IT HARDER FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER COMPARED TO TODAY BECAUSE OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN FAR WESTERN NM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
NEW MEXICO WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GREAT BASIN TROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
CORRIDOR OF THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS (40 TO 50 KNOTS) PUNCHES IN
FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
HOT TEMPERATURES, STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL ENSUE, BRINGING THESE
GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NM. WINDS SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSING OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
HOT, BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY HOT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW HIGH-BASED GUSTY SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS
ALONG THE DRYLINE SEPARATING THE MOIST AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE DRY, SPRING-LIKE AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
GRADIENT WILL HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH IT
GRADUALLY PUSHING NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO RETREAT. A SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SET UP OVER NEW MEXICO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WETTING
RAINFALL WILL FOCUS OVER EASTERN NM, WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER
WEST WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN HIGH. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME A CONCERN OVER THE RUIDOSO AREA BURN SCARS WITH THIS
FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION AFTER
18Z, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO. STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 30 TO 50 KTS WILL BE
COMMONPLACE AROUND THE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS LOW. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY GET KICKED UP
WHERE STRONGER WIND GUSTS MOVE OVER DRY SOILS IN WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WILL LIKELY
LINGER IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THROUGH AROUND 09Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VERY BRIEF MVFR VIS WITH STRONGER STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AROUND
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 0.1 TO 0.3" RANGE, BUT THERE COULD
BE LOCALIZED FOOTPRINTS UPWARDS OF 0.75". STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CONVECTION, WITH NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 30
TO 55 MPH EXPECTED AROUND THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF
DAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-40.
A FIRE GROWING PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE, WITH A FEW GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 50 MPH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN NORTHEASTERN NM AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. ANY FIRE STARTS FROM LIGHTNING THIS WEEK COULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS FOCUSING OVER NORTHEAST NM. WINDS TREND LOWER ON
MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE LOCALIZED CRITICAL IN THE
NORTHEAST. MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNS TO THE REGION AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 61 86 58 92 / 30 40 30 0
DULCE........................... 54 80 45 88 / 30 40 70 0
CUBA............................ 56 82 54 86 / 50 60 30 0
GALLUP.......................... 55 85 53 86 / 50 20 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 55 82 54 84 / 50 20 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 85 54 89 / 40 30 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 83 55 86 / 30 30 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 60 86 61 89 / 40 30 20 0
DATIL........................... 57 83 58 85 / 40 20 10 0
RESERVE......................... 59 89 53 91 / 30 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 63 92 57 96 / 30 10 10 0
CHAMA........................... 51 75 44 81 / 30 40 60 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 83 59 86 / 30 50 30 0
PECOS........................... 55 84 55 87 / 30 30 20 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 79 53 83 / 30 40 50 5
RED RIVER....................... 48 69 46 74 / 30 40 40 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 76 42 79 / 20 20 40 0
TAOS............................ 54 84 50 86 / 20 30 40 5
MORA............................ 54 82 53 85 / 20 30 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 88 56 93 / 30 50 30 5
SANTA FE........................ 56 84 59 88 / 30 30 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 57 87 56 91 / 20 30 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 88 65 94 / 30 30 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 64 91 61 95 / 30 30 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 93 61 97 / 30 30 20 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0
BELEN........................... 63 94 58 97 / 30 30 20 5
BERNALILLO...................... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 63 93 58 97 / 30 30 20 10
CORRALES........................ 63 92 62 97 / 30 40 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 93 59 97 / 30 30 20 10
PLACITAS........................ 62 88 63 93 / 30 40 20 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 63 91 62 96 / 30 40 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 65 94 65 101 / 30 50 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 85 59 89 / 30 40 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 59 86 59 90 / 30 30 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 87 56 91 / 30 30 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 88 53 93 / 20 30 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 85 56 88 / 20 30 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 59 87 57 92 / 20 20 10 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 89 58 91 / 20 10 10 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 92 65 95 / 20 10 5 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 84 61 87 / 20 10 10 0
CAPULIN......................... 56 84 53 88 / 20 30 20 0
RATON........................... 57 88 52 91 / 20 20 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 59 91 54 92 / 20 30 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 86 57 88 / 20 20 10 0
CLAYTON......................... 62 89 61 96 / 20 40 50 0
ROY............................. 60 89 57 92 / 10 20 10 0
CONCHAS......................... 67 98 64 100 / 10 10 10 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 66 96 63 96 / 20 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 98 66 100 / 10 10 20 0
CLOVIS.......................... 67 96 67 100 / 20 10 10 10
PORTALES........................ 68 97 68 102 / 20 10 10 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 98 64 100 / 20 10 10 5
ROSWELL......................... 73 100 69 104 / 20 20 10 10
PICACHO......................... 69 93 65 98 / 20 20 10 10
ELK............................. 66 90 62 95 / 20 20 10 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-120-121-123-125.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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