001
FXUS65 KABQ 222334 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH
A RISK OF CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.
- SMOKE FROM THE FRIJOLES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AIR QUALITY
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE THIS WEEK.
- MODERATE-TO-HIGH HEAT RISK WILL IMPACT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH RECORD AND NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
STORMS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH SPATIALLY SMALL CELLS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY AS THE STOUT 598 DECAMETER HIGH SETTLES OVER
NM. GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SHOWING LOWEST VALUES
OF 0.6 TO 0.8 INCH OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WHICH WAS MODELED
QUITE WELL YESTERDAY. ELSEWHERE READINGS RISE TO 0.8 TO 1.1 INCH
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES FOUND IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXPECTED
EASTERN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THESE PWATS, THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40'S AND LOW 50'S AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 80'S, 90'S, AND
LOW 100'S ARE CREATING SOME LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THAT ARE
IMPEDING RAINFALL EFFICIENCY. THE HIGH IS ALSO PRODUCING SLUGGISH
STEERING FLOW THAT IS MAKING IT HARD FOR CELLS TO MOVE OFF OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN. THE CATCH-22 FOR MANY NEARBY LOWER ELEVATIONS IS
THAT THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON STRONGER NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN STORMS
THAT CAN CREATE SUFFICIENT MESOSCALE COLD POOLS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MOVING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE NEW LOWER ELEVATION
STORMS CAN BE REGENERATED THROUGH THE EVENING. HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO UNDERWAY, AND THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR CHAVES
AND QUAY COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM MDT. STORMS ARE MODELED TO LARGELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LESS VIGOROUS SHOWERS
SURVIVING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY, THIS
UPDATED FORECAST ONLY HAS ROSWELL MEETING CRITERIA (105 F), BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE ENCROACHING UPON RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH
MIGHT BE JUSTIFICATION FOR EXPANSION. A SUBTLE PERTURBATION STILL
LOOKS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IN CO WITH
SUBSEQUENT STORMS SENDING OUTFLOW AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL STORMS
INTO NORTHERN NM LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE UPPER HIGH IS ADVERTISED TO SETTLE MORE CONCENTRICALLY OVER NM
INTO MONDAY WITH HEIGHTS REDUCING A DECAMETER OR TWO, DOWN TO
596-597 AT 500 MB. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL
MEET UP WITH A WEAK, MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ALIGNING OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE
STORMS WOULD BE FOCUSED. THE EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS COUPLED
WITH WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COULD YIELD SUFFICIENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MORE SPARSE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MONDAY, AND A
NEAR-PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL KEEP HEAT IMPACTS
FRONT AND CENTER FOR MANY NM ZONES.
A REINFORCING BACKDOOR BOUNDARY COULD SLIDE BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CO, SOUTHWESTERN KS, AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NM WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER
PERTURBATION ALOFT ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE ON TUESDAY. THE NAM
IS EVEN MORE INVASIVE WITH THIS BACKDOOR BOUNDARY, CARRYING IT
MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE NM PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF EXACT
LOCATION, THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP IGNITE STORM
DEVELOPMENT WHILE PROVIDING ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A FEW
MORE STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS TUESDAY. BY THIS TIME, RECYCLING OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR WESTERN ZONES, AND
LESS COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE THERE.
TUESDAY'S CONVECTION WILL HELP GOVERN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOIST,
UNSTABLE PLAINS AIRMASS GOING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, IT
IS MODELED TO BE DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL NM AND
POSSIBLY TOWARD THE HIGH TERRAIN OF LINCOLN COUNTY WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO FARTHER SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER HIGH WILL BE SETTLING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NM OR EASTERN AZ. SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
APPEARING TO BE THE BEST POISED FOR SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WOULD BE THEN BE
TEMPERED SOME INTO FRIDAY WITH STORMS TENDING TO STAY MORE FOCUSED
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTS UP TO 30-
35KTS. WITH THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT, IN AND AROUND KABQ/AEG THIS
EVENING, HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAF THROUGH 03Z.
CONTINUED ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD THROUGH 06Z. ANY DIRECT THUNDERSTORM
HITS TO AIRFIELDS MAY YIELD BRIEF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NM
NEAR KFMN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, ONCE AGAIN, IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z, FOCUSING MAINLY ON WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THE MONSOON HIGH WILL BE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE HIGH
WILL ALSO LIMIT STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, GENERALLY
KEEPING CELLS CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THIS REGIME
WILL KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY (12-20%) IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL THEN TREND UP IN
NORTHEASTERN NM MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE EXPANDING INTO MORE OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK, BUT MOIST
BACKDOOR FRONTS MOVE IN. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING
REDUCED A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES IN EASTERN ZONES, READINGS WILL
STILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
WILL RECOVER BETTER IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE BACKDOOR FRONTS
(MORNING RECOVERIES OF 60-80%), BUT ELSEWHERE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY
REBOUND TO 40-60% IN THE MORNINGS. STORMS COULD THEN REDUCE IN
NUMBER AND COVERAGE AGAIN BY LATE IN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 94 64 95 / 20 10 5 5
DULCE........................... 52 90 51 91 / 30 30 20 10
CUBA............................ 59 88 60 91 / 20 20 20 10
GALLUP.......................... 57 90 57 90 / 30 30 30 20
EL MORRO........................ 56 85 55 86 / 40 40 30 20
GRANTS.......................... 58 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 20
QUEMADO......................... 58 86 58 87 / 20 40 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 63 88 63 89 / 20 20 10 20
DATIL........................... 58 85 58 86 / 20 30 20 20
RESERVE......................... 58 93 57 93 / 20 30 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 63 98 64 98 / 20 20 10 20
CHAMA........................... 53 83 52 85 / 30 40 20 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 86 63 87 / 20 40 40 20
PECOS........................... 59 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 57 84 56 85 / 30 60 30 30
RED RIVER....................... 45 77 46 79 / 30 50 30 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 42 81 38 82 / 20 30 30 50
TAOS............................ 57 88 56 89 / 20 40 20 20
MORA............................ 55 86 55 86 / 30 30 30 50
ESPANOLA........................ 60 93 61 94 / 20 30 30 10
SANTA FE........................ 63 89 63 91 / 20 20 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 92 62 94 / 20 10 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 68 94 69 96 / 20 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 95 70 97 / 20 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 66 97 64 98 / 20 5 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 68 96 68 97 / 20 10 20 5
BELEN........................... 67 98 67 99 / 10 5 5 0
BERNALILLO...................... 68 96 67 98 / 20 5 20 5
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 65 97 64 98 / 20 5 10 0
CORRALES........................ 68 97 67 98 / 20 5 20 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 97 66 98 / 10 5 10 0
PLACITAS........................ 66 93 67 94 / 20 5 20 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 68 95 68 97 / 20 5 20 5
SOCORRO......................... 70 99 70 99 / 10 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 89 64 90 / 20 5 20 5
TIJERAS......................... 64 90 64 92 / 20 5 20 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 60 90 61 92 / 20 5 20 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 57 92 57 94 / 20 5 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 89 61 91 / 20 5 10 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 91 61 92 / 20 5 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 62 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 94 68 96 / 10 5 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 58 87 60 89 / 10 10 0 10
CAPULIN......................... 58 88 56 88 / 20 50 40 50
RATON........................... 58 91 55 92 / 20 50 30 60
SPRINGER........................ 58 94 56 94 / 30 40 40 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 58 90 58 90 / 20 20 20 30
CLAYTON......................... 67 97 66 97 / 10 30 40 30
ROY............................. 63 95 61 94 / 20 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 70 102 69 101 / 10 5 20 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 99 67 98 / 10 5 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 103 71 103 / 5 0 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 70 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 71 102 72 102 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 70 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 105 71 105 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 66 98 67 99 / 0 5 0 5
ELK............................. 62 93 63 95 / 5 5 0 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ234-238.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...77
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