656
FXUS65 KABQ 311845
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
- PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER VALLEY AROUND ROSWELL.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
- FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE EASTERN NM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT ERODE COMPLETELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AREAS, WHICH WOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS QUITE COOL TODAY. EVEN IF
CLOUDS DO ERODE COMPLETELY, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THEY WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER PECOS RIVER
VALLEY, FROM FORT SUMNER TO ROSWELL. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, THE LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING, AND IT SHOULD ERODE
MUCH FASTER ON SUNDAY MORNING. BETWEEN THIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ALL AREAS, EXCEPT ROSWELL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT. A WEAK
WAVE WILL CROSS NM ON MONDAY, BRINGING INCREASED HIGH CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALTER LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NM,
BUT WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN NEAR KLVS, THUS THE
STRONGEST WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OR
JUST SOUTH. AT H7, WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO NEAR 35KT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NM. THOUGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WON'T BE PARTICULARLY HIGH, SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM SHOULD
TRANSFER DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND GUSTS NEAR 30 OR 35 MPH AROUND
KCQC, WITH LESSER WIND GUSTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NM. AS THE
WAVE EXITS THE STATE AND THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD, A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BE WEAK OVERALL, ONLY DROPPING TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IN
NORTHWEST FLOW CROSSING THE AREA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT AND
THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHING OVER THE AREA MAY BE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR A FEW FLURRIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
NM, BUT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN
THE MODEST MOISTURE. MEANWHILE, A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE WEST COAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY RESULTING
IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THEN, THE LOW
PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK SHOULD GET KICKED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY BY
AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM, BUT SO FAR, IT LOOKS LIKE JUST MORE CLOUDS FOR
NM FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE
THIS MORNING. LOWEST VISIBILITY (LIFR) REMAINS AROUND KCVN AND
KCVS, BUT THESE VISIBILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THESE AREAS
SHORTLY. ELSEWHERE, MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS PERSIST, BUT SHOULD
ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
NOTED FIRST ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, WHILE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
AREAS WILL TAKE LONGER. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AREAS AROUND
KROW WILL NOT BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS TODAY, THUS TAF AMENDMENTS
MAY BE NEEDED. IF KROW DOES BREAK OUT OF THE CLOUDS, THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN FZFG AS WELL. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NM AS THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WESTWARD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. ONE OF THE MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE DRY
CONDITIONS (NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK AND RH
FALLING BELOW 20% ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM MOST DAYS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK). WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST ON MONDAY. THE
HIGHEST SPEEDS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL
NM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH, BEFORE
A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THAT EVENING WITH A FEW LIGHT NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ANOTHER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE PERIODS OF
POOR VENTILATION. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS, BUT POOR VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF AN HOUR OR TWO AT VARYING LOCATIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 55 24 57 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 16 57 20 56 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 21 55 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 14 60 17 60 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 23 59 25 56 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 15 59 18 61 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 22 60 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 29 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 26 56 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 24 65 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 26 68 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 18 50 19 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 26 56 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 22 52 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 14 44 19 44 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 6 48 8 50 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 15 54 17 55 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 23 59 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 21 59 23 62 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 27 54 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 24 57 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 32 58 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 30 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 21 59 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 28 59 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 21 60 25 63 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 28 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 22 59 26 63 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 28 59 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 27 61 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 29 53 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 30 54 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 25 56 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 17 59 20 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 25 54 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 57 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 58 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 30 52 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 21 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 19 59 21 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 19 62 20 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 23 59 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 27 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 59 26 64 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 22 67 26 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 23 64 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 21 65 28 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 24 63 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 64 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 19 61 24 68 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 22 56 26 62 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 29 63 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 28 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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