401
FXUS65 KABQ 240739
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
139 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A DANGEROUS SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS TODAY THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, AS
WELL AS SOME MAIN STEM RIVER AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING.
- THE MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE AT A LESS INTENSE PACE
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, EVEN
AS RAIN AMOUNTS BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD.
- AFTER DRIER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, MONSOON MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND BRING MORE SOAKING
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
SQUEEZED BETWEEN A LAGGING 583DM H5 LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST AND A
~593DM H5 HIGH OVER THE TX/LA GULF COAST, ABUNDANT MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD THROUGH NM. A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX 1.12" PWAT WAS OBSERVED IN THE 00Z ABQ UA
SOUNDING, ALONGSIDE WIDESPREAD SURFACE TD'S IN THE 50S OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM AND 60S THRU EASTERN NM. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY SHOWING LOWERING CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING THIS HOUR, EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER MORE OF THE AREA
TONIGHT.
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW TWO DISTINCT VORTICITY
SIGNATURES MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OLD MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN NM AND
SOUTHEASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN MOST FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO TREK NORTHWARD BRINGING SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
(CURRENTLY OVER EL PASO) TO AREAS FROM CATRON, SOCORRO, AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN
VORTICITY FEATURE WILL BE MORE OF A PLAYER FOR NM BY FRIDAY,
ROTATING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO FUSE
WITH THE LARGER 583DM H5 LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST, HELPING GENERATE
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY BATCH HEADING TOWARD ROSWELL TONIGHT
LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER INTO EAST-CENTRAL NM BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. AREAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM WILL SEE A
NOTABLE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION (ASIDE FROM SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE)
BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTION BREAKS OUT. NORTHWESTERN NM LOOKS TO SEE
A MORE PROLONGED DOWNTICK ON RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY BEFORE FRIDAY'S
NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR CAPROCK AREAS BEFORE INDIVIDUAL
CELLS TRACK MORE WEST TO EAST OVER THE STATE.
GIVEN THESE BREAKS AND CONTINUED ACTIVITY FAVORING EAST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NM, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE DROPPED FOR AREAS ALONG
EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FORECAST ZONE AND NORTH OF I-40. THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS IN COUNTIES ENTIRELY SOUTH OF I-40
AS WELL AS QUAY COUNTY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
SATURDAY BEGINS THE WEEKEND AND LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DOWN TICK IN RAIN CHANCES WITH DRYING CONDITIONS. SUNDAY SEES AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS FEATURE, ALONGSIDE HURRICANE POLO WILL ACT TO ADVECT
MORE MONSOONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AZ/NM, ALLOWING FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO FAVOR EASTERN AZ
INTO WESTERN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, THE TROUGH AXIS IS
FAVORED TO TRACK ACROSS NM EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BEING RESOLVED B/W VARIOUS NUMERICAL MODEL SUITES. THE
DEPTH OF THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PLAY A
MAJOR ROLE FOR JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT AND AND HOW
FAST STORMS MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. ANY RESULTING FLASH
FLOODING RISK WILL BE THE RESULT OF A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HOW FAST THEY MOVE. DRIER CONDITIONS
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE EITHER MID OR LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS NM
TONIGHT WITH A BATCH OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLEARING CLOUD COVER.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
IMPACTS TO DEVELOP AT SOME TERMINALS. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST WILL BODE WELL FOR KFMN AND KGUP, BUT DO HAVE
PREVAILING IFR AT KABQ AND AND KROW AT VARIOUS TIMES OF THE NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD THRU
NORTHEASTERN NM WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL NM, LOOKING TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OF KLAM AND KSKX THRU THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS TREKKING NORTHWARD FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO
SOUTHERN NM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE SECTION OF THIS HAS ALREADY
REACHING SOUTHEASTERN NM, AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH KROW IN THE
NEXT HOUR TO TWO HOURS. OTHERWISE, AMDS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT
TIMES TONIGHT TO ADDRESS CHANGING CEILING HEIGHTS OR CLEARING.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MUCH OF EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TRYING
TO FILL IN SOME OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS
WELL BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2026
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES MOST AREAS TODAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY LONGER INTO THE
MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 73 50 77 / 30 50 10 0
DULCE........................... 44 69 40 75 / 40 70 30 0
CUBA............................ 47 67 47 72 / 30 50 20 0
GALLUP.......................... 47 72 43 74 / 40 40 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 46 69 42 72 / 60 50 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 49 71 44 75 / 50 50 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 71 48 73 / 50 50 20 0
MAGDALENA....................... 52 70 51 73 / 60 50 30 5
DATIL........................... 49 69 47 72 / 70 40 20 0
RESERVE......................... 50 75 50 79 / 70 20 10 0
GLENWOOD........................ 54 80 55 84 / 70 20 10 0
CHAMA........................... 43 62 40 68 / 50 70 30 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 67 49 70 / 40 60 30 5
PECOS........................... 49 68 47 74 / 50 60 30 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 66 44 71 / 50 60 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 58 38 63 / 50 60 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 37 63 34 68 / 60 60 20 0
TAOS............................ 46 68 43 72 / 40 60 30 0
MORA............................ 46 68 44 73 / 50 50 20 0
ESPANOLA........................ 51 73 49 77 / 40 60 30 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 68 50 72 / 50 50 30 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 70 49 74 / 40 40 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 73 54 76 / 50 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 74 55 78 / 50 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 75 56 79 / 50 40 20 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 74 55 77 / 50 30 20 0
BELEN........................... 55 75 54 78 / 50 40 30 0
BERNALILLO...................... 55 74 55 79 / 50 30 30 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 54 75 54 78 / 50 40 30 0
CORRALES........................ 55 74 55 79 / 50 30 20 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 75 54 78 / 50 40 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 55 72 53 75 / 50 40 30 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 73 55 78 / 50 30 20 0
SOCORRO......................... 57 77 57 80 / 60 40 20 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 68 50 71 / 50 50 20 0
TIJERAS......................... 53 69 52 73 / 50 40 20 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 70 49 74 / 50 50 20 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 72 47 77 / 50 50 20 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 51 69 50 72 / 50 50 20 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 51 70 51 73 / 50 50 40 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 69 52 73 / 60 50 40 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 72 56 77 / 70 50 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 69 52 73 / 70 60 20 5
CAPULIN......................... 49 68 47 74 / 60 50 20 0
RATON........................... 50 72 46 79 / 60 50 20 0
SPRINGER........................ 51 74 47 80 / 60 50 20 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 49 69 46 75 / 60 50 20 0
CLAYTON......................... 57 74 55 83 / 40 40 30 0
ROY............................. 54 71 50 79 / 50 60 30 0
CONCHAS......................... 59 79 58 85 / 60 60 40 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 76 57 83 / 70 60 30 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 77 59 85 / 70 60 30 0
CLOVIS.......................... 61 76 60 84 / 70 70 40 5
PORTALES........................ 62 77 60 85 / 70 70 40 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 77 60 86 / 70 70 40 0
ROSWELL......................... 61 79 61 86 / 70 60 20 5
PICACHO......................... 57 76 56 82 / 70 70 20 5
ELK............................. 55 75 53 81 / 80 60 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ212>215-218-
223-227>233.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ226-234>240.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24
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