274
FXUS65 KABQ 130732
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
132 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- A RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS WEEKEND.
- A DAMAGING WIND EVENT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LIKELY RESULTING IN RECORD WARMTH
FOR MARCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY, BUT SPEEDS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DECREASING IN NM. THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH FROM
YESTERDAY IS DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD, AND THIS WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN TO EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. HOWEVER, BY
AFTERNOON, A NEW WEAKER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE TAKING SHAPE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO AND NORTHEASTERN NM. THE 700 MB WIND SPEEDS
AGAIN LOOK TO BE A GOOD PROXY FOR THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL TODAY.
ALTHOUGH, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING, WE SHOULD MIX SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN 700 MB THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A SWATH EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ZONES WOULD LIKELY REACH
20 TO 30 KT GUSTS WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS ELSEWHERE. THE DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD TODAY, MOSTLY IN
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60'S, 70'S, AND 80'S
WILL BE COMMON TODAY WITH THE SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN VALLEYS
BEING THE WARMEST. MANY LOCALES WILL CLIMB 15 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID MARCH TODAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE DAY WILL START WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE PUGET SOUND, BUT BY THE END OF THE DAY THIS FEATURE WILL BE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH AND GAINING QUICKLY ON
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WHILE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER NM WILL START
OUT RELATIVELY LIGHT, SPEEDS WILL BE SURGING UP BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH A VAST LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN CO AND
SURROUNDING HIGH PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL BRING A LATE AFTERNOON
SPEED SURGE TO THE SURFACE WITH WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNSET WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH BEING COMMON
(POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO 50 MPH OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS).
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP GAINING A FEW MORE DEGREES SATURDAY WITH MOST
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FORECAST AREA OBSERVING DAYTIME HIGHS
OF 15 TO 22 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
CO, JUST CLIPPING NORTHERN NM. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT, BUT THE CORE (-10 TO -20 C AT 700 MB) OF IT WILL
LARGELY STAY NORTH OF THE NM-CO BORDER WITH SOME OF THIS AIR ONLY
SAGGING INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES OF NM. THE WINDS,
HOWEVER, WILL SURGE UP WITH 700 MB SPEEDS MODELED TO REACH 50 TO 70
KT ON A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BASIS, AND THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING ALL NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH SHELTERED VALLEYS JUST
OBSERVING BREEZINESS WHILE EXPOSED HIGH RIDGES AND PEAKS GET
BUFFETED BY HIGHER GUSTS OF 40 TO POTENTIALLY 70 MPH.
THE BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SPILL INTO EASTERN NM THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY WHERE DENSE PACKING OF THE ISOBARS
WILL KEEP VERY WINDY CONDITIONS GOING WHILE COLD, DRY AIR ADVECTION
ENSUES. A COUPLE OF DETERMINISTIC MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS IS HARD TO BUY INTO, GIVEN THE LARGE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS THAT WILL PERSIST, EVEN AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND
THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO CRATER (MANY AREAS ARE SHOWN
TO DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES F BELOW 0). THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY TO BE STRONGER WITH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NM ACTUALLY DROPPING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WITH BIGGER DEFICITS IN FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
STILL TAKE MORE NOTICE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPARTMENT WITH MANY
ZONES PROJECTED TO REACH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SPEEDS IN SELECT HIGHLAND ZONES SUNDAY. A MYRIAD OF WIND ADVISORIES
AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, AND A HIGH WIND WATCH
COULD BE COMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD.
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE HIGH IS
STILL SHOWN TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND THEN
QUICKLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL BRIEFLY PUSH AN EAST WIND
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHILE SPREADING MORE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (JUST BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES) ACROSS ADDITIONAL EASTERN
PLAINS ZONES ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WOULD GRADUALLY VEER IN THE
PLAINS MONDAY, TURNING MODERATELY BREEZY BY THE AFTERNOON WHILE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLIES PERSIST IN NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL ZONES.
THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH, STILL GETTING
WARM TO RIDICULOUSLY HOT FOR MARCH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE (HEIGHTS OF 590-594
DECAMETERS AT 500 MB) BUILDS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECASTED DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE UNDERCUTTING
THE BLENDED NBM MEAN PROJECTIONS BY A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES, BUT
WOULD STILL SHATTER DAILY AND MONTHLY RECORDS. IT IS UNTHINKABLE TO
HAVE TO CONSIDER HEAT IMPACTS (DUE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90'S) IN
THE MONTH OF MARCH, PRIOR TO THE SPRING EQUINOX WITH LIMITED
SUNLIGHT DURATION AND LOW (HIGH) SOLAR ELEVATION (ZENITH).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT THU MAR 12 2026
BATCHES OF HIGH, CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO CURRENTLY, BUT VISUAL FLIGHT RULES (VFR) CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ALOFT ARE
QUITE STRONG NORTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER, BUT ARE LOWER IN SPEED
IN NEW MEXICO, GENERALLY AT 10 TO 30 KT AT 10,000 FT MSL. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME SURFACE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY, MAINLY STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT ARE NOT MODELED TO BE AS HIGH TODAY, AND THIS
COUPLED WITH A LESS FAVORABLY ORIENTED LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE/20 FT LEVEL TODAY. HOWEVER,
A CORRIDOR OF GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL STILL DEVELOP, MAINLY FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ZONES, AND CONCERNS FOR
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS REMAIN HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS (ZONE
125) WHERE GUSTS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO EXCEED 35 MPH. CONSEQUENTLY,
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS ZONE TODAY.
AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STOUT COLD FRONT ARE
STILL CAUSING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO ESCALATE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS
THAT CRITICAL WINDS COULD EXPAND TO THE ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS AND
EVEN THE HIGHLANDS OF NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHWESTERN, AND WEST CENTRAL
NM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ABYSMALLY
LOW HUMIDITY, AND CURING FINE FUELS ARE ALL PRIMED FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS, SO IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF WIND SPEEDS WHICH ARE A
BIT MORE MARGINAL OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS.
FOR NOW, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL STAND AS IS FOR SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, DESPITE SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH A
NOTABLE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
LOOMING. NORTHEASTERN ZONES WOULD COOL INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S WHICH
WOULD LIKELY MITIGATE FIRE SPREAD, BUT FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO
THE I-40 CORRIDOR, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COOL AND COULD CARRY
FIRE MORE READILY. REGARDLESS, WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH FOR MOST ZONES AND HIGHER
SPEEDS OVER SELECT HIGHLAND ZONES SUNDAY. PLUMMETING DEWPOINTS (-10
TO -20 F IN SEVERAL ZONES) WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RH IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS, EVEN AFTER THE EFFECTS OF COOL AIR ADVECTION.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD LINGER OVER NORTHWESTERN AND PERHAPS SOME
CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES INTO MONDAY, BUT FORTUNATELY THESE WOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS LONG IN DURATION.
WINDS STILL LOOK TO RAPIDLY REDUCE AS THE INCOMING UNSEASONABLY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GROWS OVER SOUTHWESTERN STATES TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STILL, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND EXTREMELY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE OBSERVED
EACH DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CURE MANY FINER FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 71 36 76 39 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 68 26 70 31 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 33 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 72 28 74 34 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 69 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 73 31 75 34 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 70 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 73 43 76 47 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 70 38 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 75 33 75 35 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 61 29 64 29 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 70 38 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 65 35 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 55 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 24 64 25 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 69 26 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 70 36 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 75 34 78 44 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 69 41 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 72 36 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 42 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 39 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 76 41 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 79 35 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 77 41 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 78 35 82 44 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 77 41 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 78 36 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 73 44 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 76 41 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 80 42 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 42 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 70 42 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 72 38 75 44 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 31 76 42 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 69 37 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 71 39 75 43 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 72 40 75 45 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 74 44 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 69 45 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 72 35 74 26 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 76 32 78 34 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 78 33 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 74 37 76 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 77 41 82 35 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 75 38 80 42 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 82 37 87 47 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 80 43 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 38 87 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 82 43 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 82 42 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 83 41 87 52 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 88 43 92 51 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 81 44 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 79 43 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NMZ101-104-105-109-120>125.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NMZ125.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page