363
FXUS65 KABQ 212309 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES IN NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE
SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THURSDAY, THEN
INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL CREATE RISES
ON TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN
AND ANIMAS. NO RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
A SLOW MOVING AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF CA IS
STEERING AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONTAINING RECORD MOISTURE LEVELS
(PWATS) INTO THE DESERT SW AND NM, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 18Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF
0.96", WHICH IS A NEW CALENDAR DAY RECORD AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE CLIMBING THROUGH THURSDAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR AZ AND WESTERN NM, MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, FOR ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS AND
MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY AND MORESO THURSDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE SPC HAS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NM INCLUDED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
BOTH THE DAY1 AND DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS. A FLOOD WATCH IS STILL
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM. RIVER,
STREAM AND URBAN-TYPE FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE, BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL TAKE TRAINING STORMS GIVEN FAST
STORM MOTION OF 35-50MPH. THE INITIAL UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
PULL NORTHEAST OVER NV THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE A SECONDARY JET
MAXIMA DIVES SOUTH DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
EVOLUTION AND FORECAST JET DYNAMICS BRINGS LESS FORCING TO CENTRAL
NM, INCLUDING THE RGV, THURSDAY NIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY MODELED.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LESS QPF. AT THIS TIME, THERE ISN'T MUCH SUPPORT FOR
EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH EAST TO THE RGV.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE 2ND JET MAXIMA OFFSHORE OF CA IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF A 2ND
UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL ON FRIDAY. AMPLE SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION,
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
NM. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ
TOWARD NM ON SATURDAY, BRINING A MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
W/EMBEDDED STORMS SCENARIO THAT WILL FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN NM
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, FOCUSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM ON SAT/SUN. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A SLOW WARMING/DRYING TREND. WET CONDITIONS
MAY RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE TROUGHING PATTERN
PERSISTS WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 457 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
A RICH STREAM OF MOISTURE SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SHRA/TS TO CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NM
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
HEAVIER STORMS WITH LCL MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY THRU SUNRISE
THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS MAY ALSO SLIDE INTO THE RGV IN THE
10PM TO 4AM TIMEFRAME DEPENDING ON WHETHER STORMS NEAR THE CONT
DIVIDE CAN HOLD TOGETHER TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND TS IS
LIKELY TO SURGE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN
INTO THE RGV AFTER 5PM. LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE WITH MT
TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY NEAR THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO BRING
HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, FAVORING WESTERN NM INITIALLY. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 68 50 65 / 80 80 80 40
DULCE........................... 47 63 46 61 / 80 80 90 80
CUBA............................ 50 65 48 62 / 40 70 80 50
GALLUP.......................... 51 67 47 64 / 80 80 90 20
EL MORRO........................ 49 64 45 64 / 50 80 90 20
GRANTS.......................... 50 65 48 67 / 40 80 90 20
QUEMADO......................... 52 68 48 66 / 30 80 80 10
MAGDALENA....................... 54 68 51 66 / 5 40 60 30
DATIL........................... 50 65 47 64 / 10 70 80 20
RESERVE......................... 52 70 50 68 / 40 90 100 20
GLENWOOD........................ 57 74 53 72 / 60 90 100 30
CHAMA........................... 46 60 44 56 / 80 80 90 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 66 50 63 / 30 40 70 50
PECOS........................... 48 68 47 64 / 20 30 70 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 46 66 47 61 / 20 40 60 40
RED RIVER....................... 41 59 41 54 / 20 40 60 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 39 65 41 60 / 10 40 50 40
TAOS............................ 46 69 47 64 / 20 30 60 40
MORA............................ 46 67 46 62 / 10 30 50 60
ESPANOLA........................ 51 73 52 69 / 30 30 60 40
SANTA FE........................ 52 68 50 64 / 20 30 70 60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 70 50 66 / 20 30 70 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 57 73 55 71 / 10 30 60 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 73 54 72 / 10 30 60 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 74 55 74 / 20 30 60 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 72 55 72 / 20 30 60 30
BELEN........................... 55 75 55 74 / 10 30 50 20
BERNALILLO...................... 55 74 54 72 / 20 30 60 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 55 75 55 73 / 10 30 50 20
CORRALES........................ 55 74 55 72 / 20 30 60 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 74 55 73 / 10 30 50 20
PLACITAS........................ 55 72 54 70 / 20 30 60 40
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 73 55 71 / 20 40 60 40
SOCORRO......................... 58 76 56 73 / 5 20 50 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 68 50 66 / 10 30 60 30
TIJERAS......................... 53 70 51 68 / 10 20 60 30
EDGEWOOD........................ 50 70 49 68 / 10 20 60 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 49 73 49 70 / 10 10 50 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 69 49 65 / 10 10 50 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 71 50 67 / 0 10 50 30
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 51 72 50 67 / 0 5 40 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 75 54 70 / 0 5 30 50
RUIDOSO......................... 51 70 50 65 / 0 0 30 70
CAPULIN......................... 50 70 49 64 / 0 0 20 20
RATON........................... 48 74 48 68 / 5 10 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 48 75 50 69 / 10 10 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 68 47 62 / 10 20 40 60
CLAYTON......................... 54 78 54 70 / 0 0 5 20
ROY............................. 51 72 51 65 / 0 5 10 40
CONCHAS......................... 56 80 56 73 / 0 0 10 50
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 76 55 70 / 0 0 10 40
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 82 57 75 / 0 0 10 40
CLOVIS.......................... 56 79 55 74 / 0 0 5 20
PORTALES........................ 56 80 56 75 / 0 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 55 79 56 73 / 0 0 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 56 81 58 77 / 0 0 10 40
PICACHO......................... 54 76 53 72 / 0 0 20 60
ELK............................. 53 74 52 71 / 0 0 20 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ201>210-241.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...42
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