016
FXUS65 KABQ 062332 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 455 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
- AFTER A QUIET AND WARMER WEDNESDAY, MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
ROUND OUT THE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING PAST LAS VEGAS, NV THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE
IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 1PM, AND AS THIS RACES
ACROSS AZ FROM WEST TO EAST, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO ARISE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING IN WESTERN NM IS AROUND AND
AFTER 4-6PM. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE ENTERS NM (LIKELY BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT), THERE IS HIGHER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY
BECOMES A WEAK CLOSED LOW. IN TURN, THAT INCREASES THE LIFT ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE AS PVA INCREASES, AND THUS PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS LOOK TO INCREASE. THE SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW ALSO LOOKS TO BE
TAKING A PATH DIRECTLY ALONG I-40, WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THERE IS
STILL GOOD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH THEY
WILL LACK THE SUFFICIENT LIFT AND ARE MOSTLY GOING TO RELY ON
OROGRAPHIC FORCING. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO BE IN THE
0.25-0.5" RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25"
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE (LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS).
ALONGSIDE OF RAIN, LOCALES ABOVE 9,500-10,000FT IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
SHOULD OCCUR FROM SNOWFALL.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN NM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE CHARGES THROUGH THE STATE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SHORTWAVE, NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION IS STILL LIKELY TO BE GOING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ACROSS EASTERN NM AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AROUND AND THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING LOOKS TO CONTINUE SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. LOWER ELEVATION AREAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST) BUT
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING. LIGHTNING
CHANCES REMAIN THE HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AS SURFACE
HEATING WILL YIELD MORE INSTABILITY, THOUGH IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES RECEIVING ADEQUATE
PRECIPITATION (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S). ALL IN ALL,
THIS IS LOOKING TO BE A BENEFICIAL STRETCH OF RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURE TO RISE BACK UP TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTER OUR BRIEF SPELL
BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES DROP BACK DOWN IN THE MID TEENS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, A RATHER SHARP DROP FROM THE MOISTURE-
FILLED AIR OF TUESDAY. SURFACE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY
IN EASTERN NM, BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH A WEAK DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, POTENTIALLY EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN NM. ALONG
WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK FAVORED TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THAT
HUMIDITY VALUES LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20%, MOST SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BE VIRGA IN NATURE, FAVOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS RATHER
THAN WETTING PRECIPITATION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER, BUT CHANCES AND
CONFIDENCE ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BEGIN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES STRONGER IN EASTERN NM, PUSHING A PSEUDO DRYLINE FURTHER
WESTWARD THAN THURSDAY. ALONGSIDE THIS, A POTENT PACIFIC SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CA SHOULD BE BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BY THIS POINT (INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW).
THIS STARTS TO SHOW SIGNS FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT,
HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WOULD NEED
TO BE SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING TO OVERCOME THE CLOUD COVER.
ADDITIONALLY, DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE 40S WITH A
DEW POINT DEPRESSION >= 25F IN MANY LOCATIONS. SUCH DEPRESSIONS
WOULD HINDER SUFFICIENT SEVERE STORMS FROM FORMING, THOUGH WOULD NOT
COMPLETELY ELIMINATE IT. SUFFICE TO SAY, THERE IS STILL LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR REPEATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
QUASI-UNIDIRECTIONAL. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS LOW GIVEN THE
DRY CONDITIONS OUT EAST, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE IT COULD BE "TOO MUCH
OF A GOOD THING."
SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SETUP, THOUGH THE
PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES CLOSER TO NM. THUS, WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW AND AN APPROACHING LOW WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
AGREEABLE ON THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE SUNDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS
FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
DETERIORATION IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN NM, THEN GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR CONDITONS EXIST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ON
TUESDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL ALL DAY TUESDAY AT KROW, BUT
THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST INDICATES IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AND
GENERALLY BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON APR 6 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST NM, CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AFTER WINDS TAPER OFF IN EASTERN NM THIS EVENING, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ENTER WESTERN NM AND EXPAND TO A MAJORITY OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25" AND
0.5" ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 0.25" NORTH OF I-
40. MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
ISOLATED VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THIS. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN EASTERN NM THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE STATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS EACH DAY SEES MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY, THOUGH WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IF
THERE WILL BE SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN NM ON FRIDAY. OVERALL, MUCH
NEEDED AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LOOKS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 45 70 39 76 / 30 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 32 66 25 71 / 20 80 10 5
CUBA............................ 37 63 34 71 / 40 70 30 5
GALLUP.......................... 33 66 29 73 / 70 30 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 39 61 35 69 / 80 50 5 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 65 32 74 / 70 60 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 63 36 71 / 90 40 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 43 62 42 72 / 90 70 20 5
DATIL........................... 40 60 38 69 / 90 70 10 5
RESERVE......................... 36 69 33 76 / 90 30 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 39 75 37 81 / 80 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 58 28 64 / 20 90 30 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 59 40 68 / 20 90 50 10
PECOS........................... 37 59 34 70 / 30 90 70 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 37 60 34 66 / 20 90 60 10
RED RIVER....................... 32 50 30 56 / 20 90 70 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 24 55 22 62 / 20 90 70 20
TAOS............................ 32 63 28 70 / 20 90 60 10
MORA............................ 34 58 34 69 / 20 90 70 10
ESPANOLA........................ 39 67 36 76 / 20 80 50 5
SANTA FE........................ 42 60 39 70 / 30 80 70 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 63 37 74 / 30 70 60 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 66 46 76 / 40 70 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 68 43 79 / 50 60 40 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 45 70 41 81 / 50 50 30 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 69 43 79 / 40 60 30 0
BELEN........................... 44 70 38 81 / 70 60 30 0
BERNALILLO...................... 47 69 42 80 / 40 70 40 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 43 70 37 81 / 60 50 30 0
CORRALES........................ 46 70 42 81 / 40 60 40 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 45 69 39 81 / 60 50 30 0
PLACITAS........................ 47 63 44 75 / 40 80 40 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 69 43 79 / 40 60 40 0
SOCORRO......................... 48 70 44 81 / 80 70 20 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 60 41 71 / 40 80 50 5
TIJERAS......................... 44 62 42 72 / 40 80 50 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 41 63 37 73 / 40 80 50 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 37 64 31 75 / 40 80 50 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 39 58 35 71 / 40 80 50 5
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 40 63 38 73 / 60 80 40 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 62 38 73 / 70 70 40 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 45 64 42 75 / 80 80 40 5
RUIDOSO......................... 40 57 40 68 / 80 80 40 5
CAPULIN......................... 33 61 33 69 / 5 60 50 10
RATON........................... 32 65 30 73 / 5 70 50 10
SPRINGER........................ 34 66 31 75 / 5 70 50 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 60 34 73 / 10 80 60 10
CLAYTON......................... 41 66 40 77 / 0 40 40 10
ROY............................. 39 63 35 75 / 5 60 60 10
CONCHAS......................... 45 67 38 83 / 10 50 50 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 61 37 79 / 20 70 50 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 69 39 83 / 5 40 40 5
CLOVIS.......................... 44 63 40 81 / 10 50 30 0
PORTALES........................ 44 62 37 82 / 10 60 30 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 43 63 36 81 / 20 60 40 5
ROSWELL......................... 46 67 42 81 / 50 80 30 5
PICACHO......................... 43 62 39 78 / 70 80 30 5
ELK............................. 39 64 36 77 / 80 80 20 5
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...11
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