618
FXUS65 KABQ 221214 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
614 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
- FLASH FLOOD RISK CONTINUES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY,
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY, THEN OVER CENTRAL
AREAS FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL CREATE RISES
ON TRIBUTARIES AS WELL AS MAIN STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE SAN JUAN
AND ANIMAS. NO RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN STORMS
WILL SPREAD TO EASTERN AREAS AS WELL ON FRIDAY WHILE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE CA COAST, DRAWING
EXTREMELY RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NM TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 0.95-1.10" OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE PLACES THESE PWATS OVER 300% OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RECORD VALUES LIKELY. FORTUNATELY,
STORMS WILL MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 35-50 MPH,
WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK SOME. HOWEVER, MANY
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS, INCREASING THE
FLOOD RISK. THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNT FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY VARIES AROUND 0.25 - 1.75" OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE NBM'S 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF (HIGH-END SCENARIO) INDICATES A 10 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL
RECEIVE 2" TO POTENTIALLY OVER 4" OF RAIN. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO
0.25" TO OVER 1" OF RAIN THAT ALREADY FELL IN SOME AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RUNOFF
AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY.
BULK SHEAR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY WILL BEGIN AROUND 25-40 KT,
EXCEPT AROUND 50 KT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. BULK SHEAR WILL THEN
CLIMB OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TONIGHT, AND REMAIN STRONG
INTO FRIDAY, REACHING AROUND 30-65 KT WITH THE GREATEST VALUES
AGAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL BE LESS
IMPRESSIVE, VARYING AROUND 1000-1400 J/KG OVER WESTERN AREAS, THEN
TRENDING WEAKER WHILE REMAINING ELEVATED AND SHIFTING EASTWARD
OVER CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT. FRIDAY'S CAPE LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND
600-1400 J/KG OVER CENTRAL AREAS, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES SOUTH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SPC'S TORNADO OUTLOOK INDICATES A 2%
TORNADO THREAT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT
TAYLOR ON FRIDAY, WHICH SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND COOLER TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH READINGS REACHING NEAR TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON; AND AS MUCH AS 3 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
FARTHER EAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING AFORMENTIONED UPPER LOW, A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN CA FRIDAY, THEN
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS IT EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND CO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL AGAIN
DRAW EXTREMELY RICH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS REACHING AROUND 0.80" ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN, AND AS MUCH AS 1.20" FARTHER EAST. THE GEFS
ENSEMBLE SHOWS PWATS PEAKING AROUND 160-260% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST SATURDAY MORNING. THUS, AFTER A PERIOD OF LESS RAIN IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, RAIN COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. RAINFALL THEN LOOKS TO
PERSIST OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REACH
AROUND 1-3" ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WHERE
700 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND +2 TO +4 C. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WHEN READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO AROUND 8
DEGREES BELOW 30-YEAR AVERAGES.
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE COMING WORK WEEK
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. STORMS
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 30-45 KT. A FEW STORMS MAY
TURN SEVERE OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE GUSTY
AND ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW DUE TO WET MICROBURSTS. SOUTH
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 67 51 66 47 / 100 90 30 50
DULCE........................... 63 46 62 40 / 90 90 70 70
CUBA............................ 64 48 63 45 / 70 80 50 70
GALLUP.......................... 66 46 64 41 / 100 100 20 30
EL MORRO........................ 65 45 64 41 / 80 90 20 20
GRANTS.......................... 65 48 67 43 / 90 80 20 30
QUEMADO......................... 67 47 66 42 / 90 90 10 5
MAGDALENA....................... 67 51 66 48 / 40 70 30 50
DATIL........................... 63 47 64 44 / 70 80 10 30
RESERVE......................... 68 50 68 43 / 100 100 20 20
GLENWOOD........................ 72 53 72 48 / 100 100 30 20
CHAMA........................... 58 44 57 39 / 80 90 70 80
LOS ALAMOS...................... 65 50 63 46 / 60 80 50 80
PECOS........................... 70 47 66 45 / 50 60 60 80
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 66 47 63 43 / 40 80 50 70
RED RIVER....................... 64 40 60 36 / 40 70 50 70
ANGEL FIRE...................... 64 40 61 36 / 40 60 40 70
TAOS............................ 69 47 66 42 / 50 70 50 70
MORA............................ 67 45 64 43 / 40 50 60 80
ESPANOLA........................ 74 52 72 48 / 50 70 40 80
SANTA FE........................ 69 49 66 47 / 50 60 60 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 71 51 69 49 / 50 60 50 70
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 73 53 72 51 / 50 70 40 70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 54 73 52 / 40 70 30 70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 75 54 75 51 / 40 60 20 70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 73 55 73 51 / 50 70 30 70
BELEN........................... 75 55 75 51 / 30 60 20 60
BERNALILLO...................... 74 54 74 51 / 50 70 40 80
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 75 54 75 50 / 40 60 20 60
CORRALES........................ 75 54 74 51 / 50 70 30 80
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 55 75 51 / 40 60 20 60
PLACITAS........................ 71 52 70 51 / 50 70 40 80
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 54 73 51 / 50 70 40 70
SOCORRO......................... 78 56 76 53 / 30 60 30 70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 67 50 66 46 / 50 70 40 70
TIJERAS......................... 71 51 70 48 / 40 70 40 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 72 49 71 46 / 30 60 40 70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 48 72 46 / 30 50 40 70
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 48 67 47 / 20 40 50 70
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 72 50 69 46 / 20 40 30 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 71 50 68 47 / 10 40 40 80
CARRIZOZO....................... 75 54 72 51 / 5 30 50 80
RUIDOSO......................... 72 50 69 47 / 5 20 70 80
CAPULIN......................... 70 48 65 47 / 10 5 20 70
RATON........................... 73 48 70 47 / 10 20 30 70
SPRINGER........................ 75 49 71 48 / 10 10 30 70
LAS VEGAS....................... 68 46 63 46 / 30 40 60 80
CLAYTON......................... 77 54 71 52 / 0 0 20 50
ROY............................. 72 50 66 49 / 5 5 40 80
CONCHAS......................... 80 56 75 54 / 0 5 50 80
SANTA ROSA...................... 75 54 71 53 / 0 10 40 70
TUCUMCARI....................... 81 56 77 55 / 0 0 40 70
CLOVIS.......................... 80 55 77 55 / 0 0 20 40
PORTALES........................ 81 55 78 55 / 0 0 20 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 79 56 76 55 / 0 5 30 70
ROSWELL......................... 81 57 80 58 / 0 0 40 50
PICACHO......................... 77 52 76 52 / 0 10 60 70
ELK............................. 78 52 76 50 / 0 10 50 80
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ201>210-241.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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