956
FXUS65 KABQ 181119 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- PLEASANT FALL WEATHER REMAINS THIS WEEKEND, WITH SOME SHOWERS
ENTERING WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- FAST MOVING STORMS WILL THREATEN STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WHICH HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM MAINLY THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
ADDED POPS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. RAIN CHANCES MAY
STILL BE UNDERDONE AND NEED INCREASING FOR THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT
PERIOD DEPENDING ON TRENDS TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE COAST OF SOCAL, BUT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE TODAY AS IT OPENS UP AND EJECTS INLAND INTO ARIZONA.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DCAPE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
(200-500 J/KG), BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AS THE AFORMENTIONED LOW SHIFTS OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. LIS AS LOW AS -3C SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS, ALTHOUGH INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO LACK OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. DESPITE THE INCREASE
OF CLOUD COVER, THE AIRMASS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA WILL BE
WARMER, RESULTING IN HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPS AND MUCH HIGHER NIGHTTIME
LOWS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE
ON TUESDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA DIGS
SOUTHWARD AND RIDGING RAPIDLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL DRAG A MORE FOCUSED PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. WHILE THERE ARE
NO TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL GET CAUGHT WITHIN THIS PLUME, THE
MOISTURE ITSELF WILL BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MID TO LATE WEEK. STRONG ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
ARE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH, RESULTING IN
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT VALUES. INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER WESTERN AZ WEDNESDAY, WITH VALUES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 600 UNITS (KG/MS). THIS IS VERY HIGH FOR THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTING THIS WOULD BE
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
THE PREDOMINANT SOURCE OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE DEPTH OF
THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND THE SPEED AT WHICH IT EJECTS INLAND. ENS
MEMBERS REMAIN ON THE DEEPER SIDE, WITH GEFS MEMBERS FAVORING A
SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING EL NINO
AND THE MJO BEING IN PHASE 1 (WESTERN HEMISPHERE), PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD BE
FAVORED, ALTHOUGH ONLY TIME WILL TELL. 50TH PERCENTILE QPF AMOUNTS
FOR THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME STILL SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 0.5-
1.5", WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOCUSING OVER NORTHWEST NM. AMOUNTS
HAVE TRENDED DOWN SLIGHTLY IN MOST AREAS, BUT ARE HIGHER IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL SET UP.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT (OR LACK THEREOF) WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON INSTABILITY. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST OVERLAPPING OF BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN SOUTHERN NM THURSDAY THEN IN SOUTHEAST NM
ON FRIDAY. WHILE DISAGREEMENT REMAINS HIGH, MODELS ARE TRENDING
WETTER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO NEW MEXICO.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE THEY EXTEND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NM AS WELL LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO
COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 124 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION TODAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY TREND
BETTER ON TUESDAY WHEN THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION IN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS LIKELY IN MOST AREAS MID TO LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE POCKETS WHERE IT IS BETTER.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM SUNDAY,
BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM. RAIN CHANCES TREND
LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE WET
PATTERN COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 62 44 67 49 / 10 10 20 10
DULCE........................... 64 37 65 40 / 10 10 20 60
CUBA............................ 63 42 65 46 / 10 30 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 65 41 66 44 / 20 20 20 20
EL MORRO........................ 64 39 64 41 / 30 30 30 30
GRANTS.......................... 68 41 67 44 / 30 30 30 30
QUEMADO......................... 68 42 67 45 / 30 10 20 20
MAGDALENA....................... 66 45 65 49 / 20 5 40 30
DATIL........................... 66 42 64 44 / 20 20 40 30
RESERVE......................... 71 41 70 46 / 20 5 30 50
GLENWOOD........................ 74 44 74 52 / 10 20 50 70
CHAMA........................... 60 39 59 41 / 10 5 20 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 43 64 46 / 10 10 20 40
PECOS........................... 66 40 68 43 / 30 0 5 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 64 41 64 43 / 10 0 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 59 34 56 36 / 10 0 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 63 24 61 27 / 20 0 5 10
TAOS............................ 64 37 66 41 / 10 0 5 20
MORA............................ 69 39 66 40 / 20 0 5 20
ESPANOLA........................ 68 40 71 46 / 10 5 10 30
SANTA FE........................ 63 45 66 48 / 10 0 10 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 64 43 68 47 / 20 5 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 49 72 54 / 10 10 10 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 47 72 52 / 10 10 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 71 43 74 51 / 10 10 10 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 48 72 52 / 10 10 10 50
BELEN........................... 70 43 73 50 / 10 10 20 40
BERNALILLO...................... 70 45 74 51 / 10 5 10 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 70 41 74 49 / 10 10 10 40
CORRALES........................ 70 46 74 51 / 10 5 10 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 70 42 73 50 / 10 10 10 40
PLACITAS........................ 67 47 71 51 / 10 5 10 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 69 47 73 51 / 10 5 10 50
SOCORRO......................... 71 49 74 53 / 20 5 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 42 66 47 / 10 10 10 50
TIJERAS......................... 65 44 68 49 / 10 10 10 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 67 41 69 44 / 20 5 10 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 39 71 43 / 20 0 10 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 65 43 67 45 / 10 0 5 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 65 42 67 47 / 20 5 10 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 64 42 66 46 / 10 5 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 66 49 70 51 / 10 5 30 30
RUIDOSO......................... 66 45 66 46 / 10 0 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 69 42 67 43 / 10 20 0 0
RATON........................... 72 38 71 39 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 73 37 72 39 / 20 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 69 39 68 41 / 20 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 67 48 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 68 39 70 45 / 10 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 74 46 77 50 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 73 46 75 48 / 0 0 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 71 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 71 45 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 71 46 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 68 44 75 49 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 70 45 76 51 / 0 0 5 5
PICACHO......................... 70 47 73 49 / 5 0 20 10
ELK............................. 72 45 74 47 / 5 0 30 10
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
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