136
FXUS65 KABQ 300631
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS.
- LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. LOW-LYING
FARMLAND, FIELDS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, AND PROPERTY NEAR RIVERS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
POLO'S REMNANT MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT NORTHEAST OF
THE STATE COME MID TO LATE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
MOVES INTO WESTERN NM. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE (PWATS
0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES) ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 60. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM
WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESIDE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND
FAR NORTHEAST NM COULD RESULT IN MORE FLOODING. A MODERATE RISK (40%
CHANCE WITHIN 25 MILES) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM. EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
DRY DUE TO A DRYSLOT MOVING OVER THESE AREAS AHEAD AND SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH THE CONTINUED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO MID 60S WITH 70S ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THIS PART OF THE STATE
SEEING MORE SUNSHINE.
SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS THIS PART OF THE STATE.
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT
IN SOME FOG ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM EARLY
TO MID THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS THURSDAY WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL NM BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REBOUND CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM BUT COOL
DOWN SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A LIGHT EAST CANYON
WIND ACROSS EASTERN SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE AND CARRIZOZO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND LINGERING TROUGHING ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
A 590 TO 592 DAM HIGH AT 500 MB OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY
MOVES EAST TO OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS FRIDAY AND THIS
WEEKEND RESULTING IN A SPLENDID 1ST WEEKEND OF OCTOBER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN PEAKS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. FOG WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEY LOCATIONS, EARLY TO MID FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS EARLY TO MID SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SATURATED
GROUNDS IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF NORTHWEST, CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
NEAR KROW, BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW. PRECIPITATION
WILL DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NM. IN FACT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THIS AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSES
NM TODAY, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL DEVELOP AREAWIDE, BUT AGAIN, STORM
COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE LAST 24 HOURS. IFR TO MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT, EITHER WITHIN
SHOWERS THEMSELVES, OR AFTER SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND LOW CLOUDS
FILL IN. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT'S DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHERE THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 66 49 73 50 / 100 30 0 0
DULCE........................... 60 37 72 37 / 100 70 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 41 68 43 / 90 50 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 60 41 72 42 / 70 20 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 56 39 69 40 / 70 30 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 43 69 44 / 50 20 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 57 45 69 44 / 80 40 5 0
MAGDALENA....................... 59 46 66 47 / 60 10 0 5
DATIL........................... 56 43 66 44 / 60 20 0 0
RESERVE......................... 63 45 73 45 / 60 20 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 68 47 77 49 / 70 20 0 0
CHAMA........................... 55 38 64 37 / 100 80 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 58 45 66 45 / 90 70 0 0
PECOS........................... 61 42 65 41 / 80 30 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 41 62 39 / 100 90 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 50 34 51 32 / 100 100 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 30 56 28 / 100 90 5 0
TAOS............................ 60 39 65 37 / 100 90 0 0
MORA............................ 59 42 61 40 / 90 60 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 65 46 72 45 / 90 80 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 59 45 66 44 / 90 40 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 61 44 69 44 / 80 40 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 65 50 71 50 / 80 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 65 49 73 49 / 70 30 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 67 50 75 50 / 60 20 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 51 73 51 / 70 30 0 0
BELEN........................... 67 49 74 50 / 60 20 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 66 50 74 50 / 80 30 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 67 48 74 48 / 60 20 0 0
CORRALES........................ 67 50 74 50 / 70 30 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 67 50 74 50 / 60 20 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 49 71 49 / 80 30 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 50 73 50 / 70 30 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 69 51 74 53 / 70 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 44 66 44 / 80 30 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 60 46 68 46 / 80 30 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 62 44 66 43 / 70 30 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 64 43 67 42 / 60 20 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 43 63 43 / 60 20 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 61 43 65 43 / 80 30 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 44 65 45 / 70 30 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 64 49 67 50 / 50 20 0 10
RUIDOSO......................... 60 44 59 45 / 30 10 10 30
CAPULIN......................... 59 42 57 40 / 100 90 60 30
RATON........................... 63 43 63 39 / 100 100 40 10
SPRINGER........................ 65 46 67 41 / 90 90 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 44 64 42 / 80 40 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 71 50 64 48 / 90 70 30 30
ROY............................. 67 48 66 45 / 60 60 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 75 54 72 53 / 30 30 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 71 52 70 51 / 20 20 0 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 77 53 71 52 / 10 10 10 20
CLOVIS.......................... 78 53 70 54 / 5 5 5 10
PORTALES........................ 79 54 72 56 / 5 0 0 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 76 54 72 55 / 10 10 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 78 53 74 57 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 73 50 68 51 / 0 0 5 30
ELK............................. 71 47 66 49 / 5 5 5 30
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NMZ203-210-211-213>217-227-
228-230.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NMZ212-218>226-
229-231>240.
SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...34
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