814
FXUS65 KABQ 161127 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- BRISK CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TODAY, BUT WITH SPEEDS WELL BELOW YESTERDAY'S.
- THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST NM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NM, THEN
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WIND SPEEDS ARE TRENDING DOWN MORE RAPIDLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT, SO HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RGV AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, WE'LL LIKELY CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE
WARNING BY SUNRISE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS
RESULTING IN BRISK CONDITIONS AND THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
AREAS TODAY. THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NM WILL NEED WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
WORK OUT, WHICH IS STILL LIKELY AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SIGNIFICANT
DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS AS THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PULLS UP
STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WITH A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE AND DECOUPLING WINDS THIS EVENING, AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP WILL BRING THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON AND
A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INCLUDING THE SANTA FE AND ALBUQUERQUE METROS. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE BAJA LOW FILLS AND EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION,
BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THIS WILL BE A TOP-DOWN MOISTENING PROCESS FAVORING WESTERN NM
THROUGH MONDAY. ALL EYES TURN TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVING
SOUTH OFFSHORE OF CA TUESDAY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO TURN INLAND
OVER SOCAL ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FURTHER
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION, STEERING REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM.
THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY NEXT WEEK AND OUR
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO TREND UP. THIS WILL BE A WARMER SYSTEM,
SO RAIN IS LIKELY FROM THE MID-SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW ACROSS THE PEAKS. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY AGREEABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR A RETURN TO WETTER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH WITH
VFR CIGS TODAY AT KROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH
WITH LOWER SPEEDS THAN YESTERDAY'S. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING
WILL CONTINUE AT KABQ UNTIL 16Z THIS MORNING FOR GUSTS UP TO
35KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TODAY, BUT WELL BELOW YESTERDAY'S SPEEDS. DRIER AND
COLDER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH VENT RATES TRENDING DOWN. A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN NM SUNDAY, THEN SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL NM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC LOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION
FROM MID THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 64 36 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 26 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 58 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 62 30 64 36 / 0 0 0 10
EL MORRO........................ 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 58 30 59 36 / 0 0 0 10
QUEMADO......................... 59 33 62 36 / 0 0 5 20
MAGDALENA....................... 55 30 56 37 / 0 0 0 5
DATIL........................... 54 28 57 35 / 0 0 0 10
RESERVE......................... 64 33 66 37 / 0 0 5 20
GLENWOOD........................ 71 39 68 41 / 0 0 10 20
CHAMA........................... 59 30 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 57 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 59 28 63 35 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 33 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 51 27 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 54 20 61 23 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 60 27 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 55 29 62 33 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 64 32 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 58 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 60 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 64 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 34 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 68 34 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 35 65 41 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 65 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 67 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 66 32 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 68 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 66 33 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 63 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 66 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 66 37 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 57 29 59 37 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 59 30 62 38 / 5 0 0 5
EDGEWOOD........................ 58 27 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 59 25 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 53 26 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 55 26 59 35 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 26 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 59 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 27 56 36 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 48 25 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 55 24 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 57 24 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 54 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 54 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 55 26 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 33 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 30 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 31 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 58 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 59 30 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 60 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 34 60 39 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 30 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 28 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NMZ201-217>220-222>225-228>237-239-241.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ222-223-
228>230.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NMZ220-225.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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