662
FXUS65 KABQ 132350 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
450 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 450 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A PACIFIC SYSTEM IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST ABOVE 8,500FT WITH MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- THE JET STREAM WILL BRING STRONG TO DAMAGING WESTERLY WINDS
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE
ACROSS EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NM FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE PACIFIC LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST MX INTO AZ,
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE REGION PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS UNDERWAY AND FORCING IS ON THE UPTREND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS. THIS TREND IS MODELED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE 562DAM
500MB LOW TURNS EAST OVER NM AND PROVIDES CONTINUED FORCING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. RAIN IS A LOCK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.10-0.30". THE
SNOWFALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS
CYCLES AND IF ANYTHING HAS TRENDED DOWN FOR MID-SLOPE AREAS, WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS STILL FORECAST AT SKI-RESORT LEVEL IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHTNING AND GRAUPEL
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
PRECIPITATION WILL WIND-DOWN QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LOW EJECTS EAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A NEAR-IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE GET
AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF NM ON SUNDAY AND GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH
GOING INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT, WARMING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. THE POLAR JET STREAM IS STILL FORECAST TO TURN
INLAND OVER SOCAL ON MONDAY THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THAT WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
THE 12Z GFS 300MB WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND AN
IMPRESSIVE 170KTS ON TUESDAY OVER NORTHERN NM, BUT WILL OTHERWISE
HOVER IN THE 150-160KT RANGE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (70-80%) OF
WIND HIGHLIGHT ISSUANCE FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD. THE POLAR JET
WILL ALSO BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM
TUE-THU, FAVORING THE WEST-FACING SLOPES AND PEAKS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY
FRIDAY AS THE JET STREAM WEAKENS AND PULLS NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSETTLED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 450 PM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NM DUE TO RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS AND
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO
SNOW. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NM THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. RAIN ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM TAPERS OFF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LINGERING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND MIST. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
THROUGH MID SATURDAY MORNING TAPERING OFF THEREAFTER. LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS. POTENTIAL FOR
THESE MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC. LOW CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BUT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP EARLY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, IMPACTING MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INCLUDING THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING MUCH HIGHER
HUMIDITY AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION. A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH BRINGING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF EASTERN NM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE JET STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, BRINGING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. THE JET STREAM WILL ALSO BRING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 34 56 29 60 / 70 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 28 54 19 59 / 90 20 0 0
CUBA............................ 31 50 24 57 / 100 30 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 23 55 18 61 / 90 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 51 25 60 / 90 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 27 56 20 64 / 80 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 32 49 24 63 / 70 20 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 36 55 32 62 / 80 5 0 0
DATIL........................... 32 49 27 61 / 60 10 0 0
RESERVE......................... 27 59 23 65 / 60 10 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 30 64 27 68 / 70 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 25 48 21 53 / 100 30 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 34 52 32 56 / 100 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 30 54 26 60 / 90 30 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 32 49 27 55 / 90 30 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 26 37 21 43 / 90 50 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 20 42 12 51 / 100 50 0 0
TAOS............................ 30 54 21 59 / 100 30 0 0
MORA............................ 29 52 24 64 / 90 30 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 33 59 26 63 / 100 10 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 34 53 31 58 / 100 20 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 34 56 28 59 / 100 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 40 57 36 63 / 90 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 39 59 33 64 / 90 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 37 62 30 66 / 90 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 39 60 32 64 / 90 10 0 0
BELEN........................... 36 62 27 66 / 90 10 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 38 61 32 65 / 90 10 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 34 62 27 66 / 90 10 0 0
CORRALES........................ 38 62 32 66 / 90 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 36 62 29 66 / 90 10 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 38 56 34 61 / 90 10 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 38 60 32 64 / 90 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 40 65 32 68 / 70 5 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 34 52 32 58 / 90 20 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 36 53 32 59 / 90 20 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 34 55 28 62 / 90 20 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 57 22 64 / 90 10 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 53 29 60 / 80 10 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 34 56 29 62 / 80 10 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 34 56 29 62 / 80 10 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 59 33 64 / 70 10 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 34 52 32 61 / 60 10 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 31 47 24 61 / 70 40 0 0
RATON........................... 32 52 22 63 / 80 40 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 33 56 20 68 / 70 20 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 55 26 64 / 80 10 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 39 54 31 65 / 60 30 0 0
ROY............................. 34 56 27 64 / 70 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 35 64 29 72 / 60 20 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 37 60 29 68 / 60 20 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 37 62 29 71 / 50 20 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 62 34 70 / 50 20 0 0
PORTALES........................ 40 62 32 71 / 50 20 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 37 63 29 68 / 50 20 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 41 66 34 68 / 30 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 37 63 33 71 / 20 5 0 0
ELK............................. 33 62 29 70 / 40 5 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR NMZ210-213-
214.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...71
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