753
FXUS65 KABQ 182344
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
- A WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY, AND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TONIGHT, WITH
BLOWING DUST, DANGEROUS CROSSWINDS, AND SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH EXPECTED.
- SNOW SQUALLS AND A FLASH FREEZE COULD MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN THERE WILL
BE A GREATER RISK OF SNOW SQUALLS IN THE SAME AREA FRIDAY
MORNING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF RAPID
FIRE SPREAD ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS TODAY, THEN
AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
STRONG WINDS ONGOING ACROSS NEW MEXICO LATE THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SO FAR, THE STRONGEST OBSERVED
GUST WAS 60 MPH OVER GALLUP, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MOST LOCATIONS GOING
INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND STEERS A 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET RIGHT OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WIDESPREAD 700 MB WINDS IN THE 55 TO 65 KT RANGE
WILL MAKE FOR SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN, WITH SOME
STRONG GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE ONLY LOCATION
IN THE STATE THAT IS CURRENTLY NOT UNDER SOME SORT OF WIND HIGHLIGHT
IS THE CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS AND ROOSEVELT COUNTY. DESPITE BEING
SPARED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WILL STILL BE ABLE TO STIR UP SOME DUST IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
WITH BLOWING DUST LOWERING VISIBILITY AND CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF
RAPID FIRE SPREAD. MOST OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO IS CURRENTLY UNDER A
RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO STRONG 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES OF 10 TO 15%. DESPITE, CONDITIONS NOT BEING AS DRY
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, HAVE OPTED TO ADD THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO STRONG PERSISTENT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A HIGH RISK OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A
FIRE DETECTION WAS ALREADY OBSERVED IN NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY,
FURTHER INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT FUELS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE
PRIMED THAN PREVIOUSLY SURMISED.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE EARLY TONIGHT AFTER A COLD FRONT FINISHES SWINGING THROUGH
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT, CREATING
BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS AND LOW VISIBILITY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
SOUTHWARD TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR GALLUP. HREF ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY SHOWS ABOUT A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY LOWER THAT HALF A MILE FOR
PARTS OF MCKINLEY AND CIBOLA COUNTIES, INCLUDING GALLUP. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF 50 TO 60% EXIST OVER LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN, INCLUDING MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS, ZUNI
MOUNTAINS, SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, AND ESPECIALLY THE TUSAS
MOUNTAINS. THE CHUSKAS, TUSAS, AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ARE
CURRENTLY UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM, WHERE 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 9
INCHES OVER THE PEAKS.
STRONG WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND
PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING AT
KEEPING STRONGER WINDS LATER ON INTO THE NIGHT EVEN AS FAR WEST AS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS, SO WIND ADVISORIES
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THOSE ZONES. WINDS
LIGHTEN UP THROUGHOUT THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. MID LEVEL 700 MB WINDS DIMINISH
INTO THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR AT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THOSE ZONES WHERE GUSTS MAY BE AS STRONG AS 45 MPH, WHILE THE REST
OF THE STATE WILL BE BREEZY AT MOST. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE BORDERLINE AS WELL FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BUT GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE THERE ARE ALREADY ARE
A COUPLE OF ONGOING VEGETATION FIRES.
THINGS RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN GOING INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST WINDS WILL OVERTAKE THE
STATE, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, WHERE DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. LASTLY, AS THE PACIFIC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY MORNING, ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF
THE STATE. CURRENT MODEL SHOW A LITTLE BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH
THESE SHOWERS, INDICATING GREATER CONFIDENCE OF SNOW SQUALLS AND
MAYBE EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. OVERALL, MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FURTHER ENTRENCHES ITSELF INTO WESTERN CONUS,
GIVING WAY TO RISING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS
NEW MEXICO SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY SUNDAY, GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE AVERAGE
STATEWIDE GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. THIS EQUATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE BY MONDAY. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW SHIFTS INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING BACK BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, THOUGH LIKELY NOWHERE NEAR THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS BEING OBSERVED CURRENTLY. THESE WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LIKELY SKYROCKET TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE MID TO HIGH 70S,
WHICH IS ROUGHLY 15F ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE FEBRUARY. MODELS ARE
LATCHING ONTO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOMETIME
LATER NEXT WEEK AS WESTERLY WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS,
THOUGH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT REMAIN IN QUESTION THIS
FAR OUT. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR THIS
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS WELL WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING FUNNELED INTO
WESTERN CONUS, THOUGH THE ORIENTATION OF THE JET STREAK/MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL DICTATE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY
GENERATES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 KTS FOCUSING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. A
POTENT PACIFIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KFMN AND KGUP AND WILL
QUICKLY TREK EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, REACHING
THE RGV AROUND 04Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE CONT. DIVIDE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, WHERE WIDESPREAD LLWS IS LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 PM MST WED FEB 18 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SUB-15% HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND AS FAR WEST AS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ERCS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO VARY FROM THE
50TH TO 95TH PERCENTILE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS, WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING IS AGAIN IN EFFECT. DESPITE ERCS BELOW THE 50TH PERCENTILE
FOR PARTS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
RAD FLAG WARNING FOR THE ZONE, GIVEN THAT LOW HUMIDITIES OF ABOUT
15% AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL PROMOTE RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST THURSDAY ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL
WIND SPEEDS IN MOST PLACES. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR THURSDAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY SEEN A
COUPLE OF NEW FIRES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG AGAIN ON FRIDAY, SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
WILL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE, THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
OTHER PLAINS ZONES OR EVEN PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 17 38 27 37 / 50 10 80 60
DULCE........................... 5 35 14 34 / 80 20 90 100
CUBA............................ 14 36 20 37 / 90 20 60 80
GALLUP.......................... 8 38 19 36 / 70 20 60 60
EL MORRO........................ 17 38 20 36 / 70 30 30 50
GRANTS.......................... 10 42 18 40 / 60 10 30 40
QUEMADO......................... 21 43 23 42 / 40 20 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 29 49 29 48 / 10 10 0 20
DATIL........................... 25 43 25 42 / 30 5 0 20
RESERVE......................... 22 48 23 46 / 50 20 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 26 51 23 50 / 60 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 4 27 11 28 / 90 20 80 90
LOS ALAMOS...................... 21 36 23 36 / 80 20 40 70
PECOS........................... 18 38 19 38 / 60 10 20 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 13 32 18 32 / 80 10 30 80
RED RIVER....................... 8 23 12 24 / 80 10 40 80
ANGEL FIRE...................... -3 30 7 29 / 80 10 30 80
TAOS............................ 8 36 17 34 / 80 10 30 70
MORA............................ 14 38 16 36 / 60 10 20 40
ESPANOLA........................ 17 43 20 44 / 80 10 40 70
SANTA FE........................ 22 38 24 40 / 70 20 30 70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 21 41 23 42 / 70 10 30 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 30 47 31 48 / 30 20 20 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 28 50 29 49 / 30 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 26 53 27 52 / 20 10 10 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 28 50 28 49 / 30 10 10 30
BELEN........................... 25 54 25 53 / 20 10 0 20
BERNALILLO...................... 27 50 28 50 / 40 10 20 40
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 24 53 25 52 / 20 10 5 20
CORRALES........................ 27 50 28 51 / 30 10 10 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 25 53 26 52 / 20 10 5 20
PLACITAS........................ 28 44 29 46 / 50 20 20 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 27 50 28 49 / 40 10 10 40
SOCORRO......................... 29 58 28 58 / 10 5 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 24 41 26 42 / 50 20 20 50
TIJERAS......................... 27 43 28 44 / 50 20 20 50
EDGEWOOD........................ 24 44 23 45 / 40 10 10 30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 45 18 46 / 30 5 10 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 21 40 23 41 / 20 0 5 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 25 47 24 47 / 10 10 0 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 26 49 25 49 / 10 10 0 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 32 53 33 54 / 10 5 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 47 31 48 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 18 43 15 43 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 18 44 13 42 / 5 0 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 20 47 14 45 / 20 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 20 43 20 41 / 20 0 5 20
CLAYTON......................... 28 53 20 51 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 24 50 20 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 30 56 23 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 29 51 24 52 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 32 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 59 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 34 61 27 63 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 58 24 59 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 36 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 33 59 32 58 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ201-203-204-206-
207-209-211-216>222-224-225-241.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-123-
125-126.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ230>232-234-235-237.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ104.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ205-208.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR NMZ202-
210-213-214.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR NMZ212>215-223-
226>229-233-239-240.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NMZ126.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...16
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