430
FXUS65 KABQ 010721
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
121 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
- ARROYOS, RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH TODAY
AFTER RECENT RAINFALL. STAY AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
- PATCHY FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES EACH MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL CAUSE STRONG
CROSSWINDS ON EAST TO WEST ORIENTED ROADS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE UPPER LOW IS EXITING NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST NM BUT NO ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
IS PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES, BUT IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE HAS THE BEST CHANCES SINCE ALL
AREAS ARE SATURATED AFTER THE RECENT RAINFALL.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 30-35 KT HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. THE H7 LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE OK PANHANDLE BY MID MORNING AND MODELS INDICATE 50KT
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER NE NM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. WHILE IT'S
NOT LIKELY THAT ALL OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE,
IT IS LIKELY THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL PLAGUE NORTHEAST NM MUCH OF THE
DAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON, THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE BARTLETT AND JOHNSON MESAS (RATON PASS) AS WELL
AS UNION COUNTY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF THE WIND
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO HARDING COUNTY AND THE I-25
CORRIDOR SOUTH OF RATON.
THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ONTO THE RATON RIDGE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
GOING IN THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN, WHILE THE MAIN UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, SOME ENERGY WILL PEEL
OFF AND DEVELOP A NEW WEAKER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THAT MAY
RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, SURFACE
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, ALLOWING MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT (<0.10" IN MOST LOCATIONS AND NO MORE THAN
0.25"). IN FACT, IT MAY BE DRIZZLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
RATHER THAN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK TO MODERATE GAP WIND IS
EXPECTED IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY (GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH) THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, QUIET
CONDITIONS ON TAP WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHILE THE NEW UPPER LOW CENTER REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST NM ON FRIDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER HIGH WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE
DOMINANT OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB, AND KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NIL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY, BUT EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT ON SUNDAY. A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND TO GET OUTSIDE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENS.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS NM
ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS, BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN STORE. THE GFS
AND GEFS ARE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION THAN OTHER MODELS
THOUGH. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY, BUT ANOTHER
UPPER HIGH SHOULD BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE, LOW CLOUDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
FAVORED AREAS FOR LOW CLOUDS OR FOG WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NM AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE CENTRAL NM VALLEYS. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 18Z THURSDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND
30KT HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM TONIGHT, BUT
THESE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45KT THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS.
ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NM THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT, HOWEVER, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NM TODAY. GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. QUIET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES NM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 72 49 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 71 41 73 42 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 67 44 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 69 42 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 67 42 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 67 41 67 40 / 0 5 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 67 44 66 42 / 0 5 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 64 47 63 45 / 0 10 5 0
DATIL........................... 63 43 61 42 / 0 5 0 0
RESERVE......................... 72 47 71 45 / 0 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 77 51 76 49 / 0 5 0 0
CHAMA........................... 61 40 68 41 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 64 46 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 63 41 67 42 / 0 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 58 38 67 40 / 5 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 49 34 60 37 / 20 5 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 31 63 27 / 20 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 62 38 69 38 / 0 5 0 0
MORA............................ 59 40 64 41 / 5 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 69 44 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 63 42 66 42 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 66 43 67 43 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 49 71 51 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 71 50 72 53 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 73 52 73 54 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 72 49 72 52 / 0 5 0 0
BELEN........................... 73 52 72 50 / 5 5 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 72 48 73 50 / 0 5 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 73 50 73 50 / 5 5 0 0
CORRALES........................ 72 49 73 51 / 0 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 73 50 72 50 / 5 5 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 69 47 70 48 / 0 5 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 72 49 72 49 / 0 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 71 51 71 49 / 10 10 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 63 45 64 45 / 5 5 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 66 46 67 46 / 5 5 5 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 64 45 66 43 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 66 41 67 39 / 5 5 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 61 43 61 44 / 0 5 5 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 63 46 63 43 / 10 5 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 63 46 62 43 / 10 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 67 52 64 48 / 0 30 20 0
RUIDOSO......................... 61 47 56 46 / 5 60 50 20
CAPULIN......................... 53 44 64 43 / 80 30 0 0
RATON........................... 58 42 68 41 / 70 10 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 62 42 69 42 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 60 41 64 42 / 0 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 61 50 66 48 / 80 40 0 0
ROY............................. 62 46 66 45 / 5 10 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 70 54 70 51 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 68 53 67 50 / 5 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 69 52 67 50 / 10 20 10 0
CLOVIS.......................... 69 51 65 48 / 10 30 10 0
PORTALES........................ 71 55 66 51 / 10 20 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 71 56 69 52 / 0 10 5 0
ROSWELL......................... 76 56 69 53 / 0 10 20 5
PICACHO......................... 70 53 62 51 / 0 60 70 30
ELK............................. 67 51 60 49 / 5 70 70 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NMZ227-230.
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34
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