299
FXUS65 KABQ 172316 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
516 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
- WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS TODAY WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL FOR LARGE AND HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO, INCREASING THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD
FROM ANY NEW SPARK. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MAY OCCUR SUNDAY OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH RAPID
FIRE SPREAD POSSIBLE.
- A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, WESTERN, AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT EXPOSED PLUMBING AND EARLY BLOOMING
PLANTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH IN MANY
AREAS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IT IS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AS WELL WITH HUMIDITY FALLING
BELOW 10% EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. PEAK WINDS WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 2PM AND 6PM AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM DURING PEAK MIXING. THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER EASTERN NM IN THE WAKE OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. THE LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE
AROUND CURRY COUNTY, WHILE THE REFS, NBM, AND HREF STRUGGLE TO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF THAT MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW, A HIGH-END WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR FAR EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS HAVE TRENDED
A TAD COOLER SO A COUPLE LOCATIONS WERE ADDED TO THE FREEZE
WARNING.
SATURDAY WILL BE GORGEOUS AS A DRY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE
CRESTS EAST OVER NM. EXPECT MILD TEMPS, VERY LOW HUMIDITY, LIGHTER
WINDS, AND SUNNY SKIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.
FREEZE ZONES THAT MAY NEED ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING INCLUDE THE AREA
FROM RATON TO LAS VEGAS AND MORIARTY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
BY SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW DEEPENING TO NEAR
1004MB OVER SOUTHEAST CO WILL ALLOW STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER
ALL OF EASTERN NM. GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER THE
NORTHEAST. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO TREND MUCH WARMER WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
MONDAY IS LIKELY TO START OUT PLEASANT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED AND GUSTY SHOWERS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING PWATS TO NEAR 0.50" OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NM ALONG WITH SBCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG, LIFTED
INDICES OF -1 TO -3, DCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG, AND AN APPROACHING
40-60KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY STORMS IS
INCREASING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ABQ METRO (NBM POPS 20-40%). THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR A "WETTER" STORM WILL BE IN THE GILA REGION
WHERE PWATS MAY RISE CLOSER TO 0.75". OTHERWISE, ANY DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FIRE STARTS WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES RATHER QUICKLY BEYOND MONDAY GIVEN THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY BUT
EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE TROUGH EJECTING THRU THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STRENGTH AND TIMING
OF EACH WAVE IS LIKELY TO CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. FOR NOW, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH
WARMER TEMPS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
WIND SPEEDS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH EARLY AND MID EVENING. MEANWHILE, A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS REACHING ROSWELL DURING LATE EVENING. NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PEAK AROUND 45 KT ALONG
THE TX BORDER THIS EVENING FROM CLOVIS NORTHWARD. NEAR AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT, GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH 35 KT FROM CLOVIS SOUTHWARD
AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO ROSWELL. EAST CANYON WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT
ARE LIKELY IN CARRIZOZO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL BANK UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT PRODUCING AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
MID MORNING ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS ONGOING OVER EASTERN NM WITH
LOCALLY CRITICAL AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT OVER EASTERN NM WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS TO THE PLAINS
THIS EVENING. HUMIDITY WILL RISE QUICKLY OVER EASTERN NM WITH GOOD
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. POOR TO FAIR RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NM WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER SATURDAY BUT WITH RH BELOW 10% IN MOST AREAS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST NM. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE FORTHCOMING
OVER THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ADVANCING NORTHWARD MONDAY
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR GUSTY SHOWERS AND DRY STORMS, MAINLY
SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBUQUERQUE. ANY DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WINDS MAY TREND MUCH STRONGER WITH MORE CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITY TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 22 61 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 14 60 19 70 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 21 59 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 16 60 23 73 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 22 61 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 20 63 26 71 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 26 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
MAGDALENA....................... 32 62 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
DATIL........................... 29 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
RESERVE......................... 29 73 31 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 33 78 35 77 / 0 0 0 5
CHAMA........................... 14 55 22 63 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 28 60 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 22 59 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 20 55 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 14 51 19 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 12 52 15 61 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 17 58 21 68 / 0 0 0 0
MORA............................ 20 57 25 67 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 24 64 29 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 27 59 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 61 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 34 66 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 36 68 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 70 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 34 67 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
BELEN........................... 30 68 32 76 / 0 0 0 0
BERNALILLO...................... 30 68 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 29 69 31 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORRALES........................ 32 69 37 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 30 69 33 76 / 0 0 0 0
PLACITAS........................ 30 63 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 32 67 38 75 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 36 72 38 76 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 61 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 26 64 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
EDGEWOOD........................ 23 64 27 72 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 21 64 25 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 24 58 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 26 64 30 70 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 29 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 32 59 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 19 52 26 64 / 10 0 0 0
RATON........................... 20 57 23 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 22 59 25 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 22 56 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 28 59 33 69 / 5 0 0 0
ROY............................. 25 57 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 31 63 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 30 61 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 64 32 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 35 65 33 72 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 36 67 32 73 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 32 65 32 71 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 43 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 63 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 33 63 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
NMZ201-217>219-222>224-228>234-241.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ104-106-
123>126.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ231-232.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ213>215-223-226-
228-229-240.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR NMZ230-234-235.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...44
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