660
FXUS65 KABQ 232346 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
546 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON TUESDAY
ACROSS EASTERN NM.
- THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE (30-40%) RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH
FLOODING IN AND NEAR RUIDOSO MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AN UPPER HIGH IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL PEAK SUNDAY
NEAR 586DAM AT 500MB DIRECTLY OVER CENTRAL NM, BRINGING WARMER
CONDTIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. IN
THE MEANTIME, A BACKDOOR FRONT TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST
TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALREADY PRODUCING A ROUND OF GARDEN-VARIETY CONVECTION
BETWEEN SPRINGER, SANTA FE, LOS ALAMOS AND GRANTS. CONVECTION WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND FAVOR
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OVER WETTING (>0.10") RAINFALL. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL
CLOSER TO THE TX/OK BORDERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT BULK SHEAR
HAS TRENDED DOWN FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS AND IS FORECAST TO REACH
ONLY 25KTS. THE LATEST CAMS ARE PARTICULARLY EXCITED ON CLAYTON
TAKING A HIT BETWEEN 4-7PM. SUNDAY'S ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED CONVECTION WILL BE EVEN MORE LIMITED, WITH LESS SHEAR
AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S CROP, WHICH
WILL FOLLOW A NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC LOW ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM OVER SOCAL. PWATS ARE FORECAST
TO SURGE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND
THE 00Z TUESDAY KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND MAY CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORDS. HIGH POPS ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
PEAKING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NM. WIDESPREAD SOAKING
(>0.25") RAINS ARE LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF THE RGV, WITH LOWER
COVERAGE OF SOAKING RAINS WEST OF THE RGV. IN TERMS OF THREATS,
STRONG/ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THREATS
INITIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT TRANSITIONING
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
RISK FOR BURN SCAR FLASH FLOODING IS ON THE UPTREND FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW AND MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
FEEDING GULF MOISTURE UP THE SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM IS PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH THE QPF IN THE SACRAMENTOS
AND THE NBM SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR 0.50-0.75" BETWEEN
RUIDOSO AND CAPITAN, WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON/NEAR THE SEVEN
CABINS FIRE/BURN SCAR AS WELL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1" OR
GREATER CAN NOT BE RULED-OUT WITH THIS EVENT. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT
TO EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY AS THE PACIFIC LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SEVERE STORMS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN NM ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY GIVEN ONGOING RAIN
FROM OVERNIGHT AND DEBRIS CLOUDS.
A POTENT UPPER LOW OVER NV/CA WILL STEER DRIER WESTERLIES INTO
WESTERN NM WEDNESDAY, SHARPENING UP A MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM WHERE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL PERSIST. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
HELP TO SPREAD DRIER AIR EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
BRING A PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MORE
MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL GOING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING GARDEN VARIETY WITH ISOLATED
COVERAGE. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY DOWNBURSTS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY. FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE,
ACTIVITY IS MUCH WEAKER, GENERALLY CONSISTING OF STRUGGLING
SHOWERS PRODUCING MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND THAN RAIN. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIE OFF THROUGH SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
(LESS THAN 30% CHANCE) THAT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS WILL PUSH WESTWARD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT, BRIEFLY ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
EAST WIND, BUT GIVEN RECENT STORM AND WIND TRENDS, THIS SCENARIO
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY. LESS SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
BREEZES FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN NM,
WHILE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SIMILAR
SETUP ON SUNDAY, BUT EVEN WARMER OVERALL WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVERHEAD. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW, FORECAST TO BRING HIGH HUMIDITY AND
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRYING WED/THU, WITH STRONGER
WINDS ON THURSDAY THAT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, FUELS MAY NOT BE RECEPTIVE TO
THE RAPID SPREAD OF FIRE ON THURSDAY GIVEN WETTING RAINFALL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON ANOTHER PACIFIC
LOW BRINGING HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 47 86 52 82 / 0 0 0 20
DULCE........................... 39 82 43 80 / 0 0 0 40
CUBA............................ 44 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 30
GALLUP.......................... 40 83 45 73 / 0 0 0 60
EL MORRO........................ 42 80 47 71 / 0 0 5 70
GRANTS.......................... 42 83 46 76 / 0 5 5 60
QUEMADO......................... 46 81 49 71 / 0 5 10 80
MAGDALENA....................... 52 82 55 75 / 0 0 0 80
DATIL........................... 47 79 49 71 / 0 0 0 80
RESERVE......................... 42 85 45 76 / 0 5 10 70
GLENWOOD........................ 45 89 47 81 / 0 0 10 60
CHAMA........................... 37 76 40 74 / 0 0 0 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 79 56 77 / 0 5 0 40
PECOS........................... 45 80 48 76 / 0 10 10 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 76 46 75 / 0 0 0 40
RED RIVER....................... 36 67 39 66 / 0 5 10 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 72 35 70 / 0 10 10 60
TAOS............................ 42 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 40
MORA............................ 43 76 47 74 / 0 20 10 60
ESPANOLA........................ 49 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 50 81 53 78 / 0 5 0 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 48 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 86 61 81 / 0 0 0 60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 87 59 82 / 0 0 0 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 55 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 55 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 40
BELEN........................... 51 90 54 84 / 0 0 0 40
BERNALILLO...................... 55 88 58 83 / 0 0 0 50
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 50 89 53 84 / 0 0 0 50
CORRALES........................ 54 89 57 84 / 0 0 0 40
LOS LUNAS....................... 50 89 53 84 / 0 0 0 40
PLACITAS........................ 56 85 60 80 / 0 0 0 60
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 88 59 83 / 0 0 0 40
SOCORRO......................... 58 91 60 84 / 0 0 0 60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 81 57 75 / 0 0 0 70
TIJERAS......................... 52 83 56 78 / 0 0 0 70
EDGEWOOD........................ 49 84 53 78 / 0 0 0 60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 85 45 80 / 0 0 0 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 47 80 50 76 / 0 10 10 50
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 48 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 70
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 47 83 51 77 / 0 0 0 70
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 85 57 79 / 0 0 0 60
RUIDOSO......................... 51 77 53 72 / 0 10 10 60
CAPULIN......................... 42 76 46 77 / 20 20 10 40
RATON........................... 43 80 46 81 / 10 10 10 40
SPRINGER........................ 43 82 47 82 / 10 10 10 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 44 79 48 76 / 10 10 10 40
CLAYTON......................... 49 83 53 83 / 30 20 20 20
ROY............................. 47 81 51 80 / 10 10 10 30
CONCHAS......................... 52 90 56 88 / 10 5 10 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 87 54 84 / 10 5 10 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 53 91 57 89 / 20 5 10 40
CLOVIS.......................... 53 88 55 87 / 20 10 10 20
PORTALES........................ 53 89 56 88 / 20 20 10 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 52 90 55 88 / 10 5 10 30
ROSWELL......................... 57 93 60 91 / 0 5 10 10
PICACHO......................... 52 86 54 83 / 0 5 10 30
ELK............................. 49 83 52 80 / 0 5 10 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...52
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page