439
FXUS65 KABQ 282320 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 511 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- DRY LIGHTNING FROM VIRGA, OR EVAPORATING RAINFALL, AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO MAY CAUSE NEW
FIRE STARTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CREATE
ERRATIC DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL LIGHT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDENESDAY.
- WEST WINDS TREND STRONGER NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MODERATE
(40-60%) CHANCE OF AN INCREASED THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS QUITE STRONG TO OUR SOUTH TODAY, AND
DESPITE THE FRONT THAT MOVED IN YESTERDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND TODAY, AIDED BY VEERING SURFACE WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO TURN FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A
LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH EASILY TAKES SHAPE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE,
AND THIS DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL OFFER COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL COMING OUR WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR DEVELOPING VIRGA SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL
TO SOUTHWESTERN ZONES. THESE HIGH-BASED BUILDUPS WILL ONLY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SPRINKLES/VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO SUCH A
DEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY OF
THIS WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD FALL APART THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, BUT LINGERING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRAP IN SOME
WARMTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS STILL OVERLAYING NM. A SUBTLE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL ALSO BE FOUND NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH A
CONTINUED FETCH OF MODEST MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPING INTO NM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RECYCLE AND REDEVELOP WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
IN MOST ZONES, EVEN THOSE FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE FEATURE.
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP CLIMBING, EXCEEDING NORMAL BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES IN ALL
ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OTHER NOTABLE ASPECT OF SUNDAY'S WEATHER
WILL BE THE LOW, BUT PRESENT, POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIRGA SHOWERS AND
EVEN DRY THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN SOUTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL
ZONES. LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1 C WILL OFFER MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
AND A FEW CAMS (RRFS, FV3) ARE STARTING TO LATCH ON TO VERY
SPARSE/ISOLATED CELLS. THESE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FIZZLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THE WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED BAJA TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE
MEXICAN MAINLAND ON MONDAY WITH THE FLOW ALOFT VEERING A BIT MORE
WESTERLY AND USHERING IN SUBTLE MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS OVER NM.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WESTERN NM WILL CONSEQUENTLY
SPREAD A BIT FARTHER INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE WHERE ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH LI'S OF -1
TO
-3 C OVER A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS WITH LOWEST VALUES IN FAR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS WILL ALL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM.
HOWEVER, VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND HIGH LCL'S WILL LEND
TO VERY LOW QPF AND A TENDENCY TOWARD MORE VIRGA AND DRIER STORMS.
NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HEALTHY SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS,
BUT THIS WAS REDUCED TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS LIKELIHOOD OF ACTUAL
MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO START COOLING A FEW
DEGREES IN WESTERN ZONES MONDAY, AS HEIGHTS BEGIN DECLINING.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON TUESDAY, WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
PERTURBATIONS STILL PROPAGATING ALONG OR NEAR THE NM-CO BORDER, BUT
THESE ARE LOOKING MORE SUBTLE AND FAINT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
CONTINUED MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FEEDING INTO NM, SO
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP, PERHAPS WITH A
BIT MORE SUBSTANCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF PRODUCING MEASURABLE PRECIP
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGH VARIANCE DUE TO DISCREPANCIES ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY (ECMWF AND NAM MUCH COLDER AND INVASIVE
THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN).
WHATEVER GROUND THE FRONT DOES MAKE, IT SHOULD RETREAT AND WASH OUT
INTO WEDNESDAY. INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPSTREAM
INTERESTS WILL BE CONCENTRATING ON AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL CROSS NORTHERN NM, BRINGING OUR BEST PRECIP CHANCES OF THE LAST
FEW WEEKS. THE QPF IS STILL LOW WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TRACK/TIMING, BUT A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DO APPEAR TO ACTUALLY BREACH
0.1 TO 0.25" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT (INCLUDING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
ABOVE 9,000 KFT. A DRY SLOT WOULD QUICKLY WORK IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH BREEZY TO WINDY, DRY, AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ENSUING. THIS REGIME COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY, DEPENDING
ON THE FATE OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
FROM THE ENS AND GEPS ARE A BIT SHARPER AND SLOWER WITH THE NEXT
TROUGH COMPARED TO THE GEFS. FOR NOW, A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR FRIDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR ARRIVES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 519 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER NM OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF VIRGA ACROSS WESTERN NM THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY RESULT IN GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL GENERALLY WANE AROUND SUNSET,
THOUGH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST NM, SOUTHWEST TO WEST
BREEZES MAY LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 25 OR 30KT
WILL BE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM. BETTER CHANCES
EXIST FOR VIRGA WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE ALSO EXISTS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE TRYING TO WARM BACK UP TO NORMAL, IF NOT SURPASS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSISTING. WINDY
CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERN NM WILL THREATEN WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. IN WESTERN NM, A FEW SPOTTY AND
MEAGER VIRGA SHOWERS WILL POTENTIALLY TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING, OFFERING A FEW BRIEF AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH REDEVELOPS WITH WINDS
TURNING A BIT MORE WESTERLY AND GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS OF NM (LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS).
THIS WILL REPRESENT THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO OBSERVE A COUPLE HOURS
OF MARGINAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
TEMPERATURES SOAR 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL ZONES. WE
STILL ANTICIPATE A LOW (10 TO 20%) THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN (AND PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN) ZONES AS
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE JUXTAPOSITION OF LIGHTNING OVER
PARCHED FUELS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THESE DRY STORMS SUNDAY, AND
LIKELY INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TOO.
THE MODEST, BUT SUFFICIENT, TAP OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER
WESTERN NM MONDAY AND SPREADS A BIT FARTHER EAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THE LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING MONDAY, STRONGER WINDS
WILL ENSUE OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALIGNING. THE WINDY CONDITIONS COULD EXPAND OVER MORE
OF NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NM ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MARGINAL OR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A
WATCH FOR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY, AND SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL
BE WATCHING TUESDAY'S POTENTIAL WITH HUMIDITY BEING THE CURRENT
LIMITER.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE CRITICAL THREAT. THE NEXT WINDOW FOR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS QUICKLY RETURNS THOUGH ON THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NM DUE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT ALOFT AND WARMER AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LINGER INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 41 78 46 79 / 5 0 5 20
DULCE........................... 31 74 35 73 / 5 0 0 20
CUBA............................ 36 74 41 73 / 10 0 5 20
GALLUP.......................... 33 76 36 75 / 5 10 10 30
EL MORRO........................ 38 72 40 70 / 10 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 35 77 38 74 / 10 10 10 30
QUEMADO......................... 40 74 42 71 / 10 10 10 40
MAGDALENA....................... 45 77 48 74 / 5 10 10 40
DATIL........................... 41 74 44 71 / 10 10 10 40
RESERVE......................... 35 79 38 77 / 5 10 10 40
GLENWOOD........................ 38 84 42 81 / 0 10 10 40
CHAMA........................... 34 67 36 66 / 5 0 0 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 73 49 72 / 5 0 0 20
PECOS........................... 38 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 64 38 62 / 0 0 0 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 67 32 66 / 0 0 0 20
TAOS............................ 31 75 34 74 / 0 0 0 20
MORA............................ 40 73 42 72 / 0 0 0 20
ESPANOLA........................ 38 80 42 79 / 5 0 0 20
SANTA FE........................ 42 75 46 74 / 5 0 0 20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 39 78 43 78 / 5 0 0 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 47 78 51 78 / 5 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 48 81 52 81 / 5 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 40 83 45 83 / 5 0 5 20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 45 82 50 81 / 5 0 5 20
BELEN........................... 39 84 45 83 / 5 5 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 44 82 48 81 / 5 0 5 20
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 38 82 43 82 / 5 0 5 20
CORRALES........................ 44 82 48 82 / 5 0 5 20
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 82 44 82 / 5 0 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 46 78 51 77 / 5 0 0 20
RIO RANCHO...................... 46 81 51 80 / 5 0 5 20
SOCORRO......................... 46 84 51 82 / 5 5 10 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 74 49 74 / 5 0 5 20
TIJERAS......................... 44 75 50 75 / 5 0 5 20
EDGEWOOD........................ 40 75 47 75 / 5 0 0 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 31 78 37 78 / 5 0 0 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 20
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 42 77 46 76 / 0 0 5 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 39 76 46 76 / 0 0 0 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 44 80 50 80 / 0 0 5 20
RUIDOSO......................... 38 75 44 75 / 0 10 5 20
CAPULIN......................... 40 77 41 76 / 0 5 0 20
RATON........................... 36 80 37 80 / 0 5 0 20
SPRINGER........................ 36 82 38 82 / 0 0 0 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 41 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 49 85 52 87 / 0 5 0 10
ROY............................. 41 82 45 82 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 43 89 44 89 / 0 0 0 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 43 85 46 85 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 45 90 48 91 / 0 0 0 10
CLOVIS.......................... 43 89 50 91 / 0 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 40 89 47 91 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 38 88 44 89 / 0 0 0 10
ROSWELL......................... 42 87 49 91 / 0 0 0 10
PICACHO......................... 44 84 50 84 / 0 10 0 20
ELK............................. 41 80 47 81 / 0 10 0 20
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NMZ104-123.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...34
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