242
FXUS65 KABQ 181148 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 540 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD EACH DAY WITH A RISK
OF LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TODAY AND SUNDAY, THEN MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING BELOW THE RUIDOSO AREA
BURN SCARS TODAY, AND A MODERATE RISK SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
MONSOON MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY MOIST PWATS AROUND 1-1.3" WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS PERSIST OVER THE CO/WY BORDER AND ALSO ON THE
TX/LA COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX TODAY, THEN BEGIN TO
MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD EL PASO ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY, THEN MORE TOWARD THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER HIGH OVER CO
WILL BEGIN STEERING DRIER AIR OVER NORTHEAST NM ON SUNDAY CUTTING
OFF CONVECTION EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. SOME CELLS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT RATES OVER 1"/HR WITH A RISK
OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE NBM'S 90TH PERCENTILE QPF
INDICATES THE MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT EACH DAY WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACCUMULATION. THE
REFS LPMM SUGGESTS THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EXTREMELY VULNERABLE BURN SCARS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE HIGH RES MODELS DEPICT
NUMEROUS STORMS REDEVELOPING AGAIN TODAY.
WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION, HIGH TEMPS WILL VARY
FROM NEAR TO AROUND 9 DEGREES BELOW 1991-2020 AVERAGES TODAY AND
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGHS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A STRONGER
(595 DAM) HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, INITIALLY OVER CO ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD RECENTERING OVER NE NM AND THE OK AND TX
PANHANDLES, WHERE IT SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND 597 DAM. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL THEN RECENTER MORE OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, BUT PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO FALL ABOUT 20 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD RELEGATE THE
RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO
PLACES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, AND ALSO TO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL THEN BE A NOTABLE DOWNTICK IN
STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY, AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND RAINFALL INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED AS DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER AND A MOIST BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET MICROBURSTS
WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY OVER 45
KT. STORM MOTION WILL MOSTLY BE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST AT
SPEEDS FROM 5-20 KT. SOME CELLS OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS WILL MOVE
MORE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1256 AM MDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WITH SEASONABLY RICH MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE, THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE STRONG AND
ERRATIC THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW, AS WELL AS LIGHTNING. WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH DAY, EXCEPT FOR TODAY WHEN MUCH OF THE PLAINS
WILL ALSO HAVE A SHOT AT SOME WETTING PRECIP AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 89 62 92 64 / 30 20 5 5
DULCE........................... 86 48 89 50 / 70 20 20 5
CUBA............................ 82 55 84 56 / 60 40 40 20
GALLUP.......................... 83 53 83 53 / 60 60 60 30
EL MORRO........................ 79 54 80 54 / 70 60 80 30
GRANTS.......................... 83 56 84 56 / 60 50 60 20
QUEMADO......................... 80 55 81 55 / 80 60 90 50
MAGDALENA....................... 83 61 83 61 / 70 50 60 40
DATIL........................... 79 57 79 57 / 70 40 80 40
RESERVE......................... 86 53 87 54 / 60 30 90 40
GLENWOOD........................ 89 55 90 56 / 50 30 90 50
CHAMA........................... 79 48 83 50 / 70 20 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 83 62 84 63 / 50 20 20 5
PECOS........................... 83 54 84 55 / 60 20 50 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 81 54 83 56 / 70 10 30 0
RED RIVER....................... 73 47 75 48 / 50 10 30 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 42 79 43 / 50 30 30 0
TAOS............................ 84 51 86 53 / 50 20 20 0
MORA............................ 81 52 81 53 / 50 30 40 5
ESPANOLA........................ 90 60 91 62 / 50 20 20 5
SANTA FE........................ 83 60 84 61 / 70 20 60 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 87 58 87 59 / 60 20 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 90 66 90 67 / 60 40 40 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 91 63 90 64 / 50 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 93 62 93 63 / 40 40 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 92 66 92 66 / 40 40 20 10
BELEN........................... 92 62 92 62 / 30 30 30 20
BERNALILLO...................... 93 64 93 66 / 40 40 30 10
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 92 60 91 61 / 40 30 30 10
CORRALES........................ 93 65 93 66 / 40 40 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 62 92 63 / 40 30 30 10
PLACITAS........................ 88 65 89 66 / 50 40 40 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 92 65 92 66 / 40 40 20 10
SOCORRO......................... 94 67 94 67 / 50 50 30 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 84 59 84 60 / 60 40 50 10
TIJERAS......................... 85 59 86 60 / 60 40 50 10
EDGEWOOD........................ 86 55 86 56 / 50 40 50 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 87 52 88 52 / 50 40 50 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 82 55 82 55 / 50 30 30 10
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 86 56 86 56 / 60 40 60 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 57 84 57 / 60 40 60 30
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 63 85 62 / 40 40 80 40
RUIDOSO......................... 79 57 79 57 / 80 40 80 40
CAPULIN......................... 83 54 84 55 / 20 20 10 0
RATON........................... 88 54 88 55 / 20 20 5 0
SPRINGER........................ 89 56 88 56 / 20 20 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 84 55 84 56 / 30 20 20 10
CLAYTON......................... 91 62 91 64 / 10 10 0 0
ROY............................. 86 59 86 60 / 20 20 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 94 63 93 64 / 5 40 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 61 88 62 / 5 30 10 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 94 64 93 65 / 10 20 10 5
CLOVIS.......................... 91 63 91 64 / 30 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 92 63 91 64 / 30 30 40 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 63 91 64 / 30 30 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 93 67 93 67 / 30 30 20 30
PICACHO......................... 88 62 87 61 / 70 30 60 40
ELK............................. 85 58 84 57 / 70 50 80 40
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NMZ226.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44
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