084
FXUS65 KABQ 292357 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 547 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
- DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE WHOLE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TODAY.
- A FEW DRY STORMS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO START NEW FIRES.
- THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
A MOIST BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH WEST
TEXAS AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO, BRINGING IN A STREAM OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, STORMS ARE
FIRING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND MOVING EAST INTO THE PLAINS WHERE THERE ARE
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
LOOKS TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH
CAPE VALUES IN THE 2000 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 35 KTS.
SINCE THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL NM,
THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER FAR EASTERN CHAVES AND
SOUTHER ROOSEVELT COUNTIES, JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE STRONGEST CELLS LOOK TO
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR WARNING AREA. MEANWHILE. SOME STORMS
ARE FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
MORE STABLE OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO SUPPORT STRONGER
CONVECTION, WITH UNION COUNTY ALREADY BEING POST FRONTAL. HOWEVER,
SHORTWAVE FORCING MAY SUPPORT SOME STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE CO-NM BORDER, WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTHEAST AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT LOOKS TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY LATE TONIGHT AND PUSHING THROUGH A ROBUST EAST
CANYON GAP WIND FOR THE ABQ AND SANTA FE METRO AREAS. WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KTS LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CALMING DOWN AROUND SUNRISE. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOSH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ALLOW FOR
A DECK OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN VALLEY AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MIX OUT FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL MIMIC TODAY'S ACTIVITY, WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING
OFF OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE IN THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN COULD SUPPORT SOME VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR
WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
IT SEEMS THAT GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING ON A SOLUTION FOR
SATURDAY'S SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PUSH SOME GREATER SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE FARTHER
WEST OVER NEW MEXICO, SCALED BACK ON POPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
AS STORMS LOOK TO BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO USHER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME
HIGH BASE THUNDERSTORMS. VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CREATE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND POSSIBLE LEAD TO NEW FIRE STARTS
IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE FUEL MOISTURE IS QUITE LOW.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA THAT WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
THIS WEEK. THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ENTER OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, USHERING SOME GREATER MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT YET ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE, BUT WITH MODEL PWATS NEARING CLOSE TO 1 INCH
(NEAR RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO LOCAL SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY), WESTERN NEW MEXICO COULD BE IN FOR A WET BEGGING OF
NEXT WEEK. THE STORM TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH
THE RECENT GFS SHOWING A MORE NORTHERN AND WESTWARD TRACK AND
KEEPING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION OVER ARIZONA AND FAR NORTHWEST
NM. THIS STORM ALSO LOOKS TO BRING IN STRONGER WEST WINDS ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT WITH CONDITIONS LOOKING MORE MOIST, FIRE THREAT IS
LOW. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON TUESDAY EVENING. THEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO EJECT INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ONCE
AGAIN BRING IN GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDUCE AND MAINLY STAY
IN THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND THEN
DWINDLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL GET A SECOND PUSH THIS EVENING, MOVING FARTHER WEST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WILL CREATE MVFR (LESS THAN
3000 FT) CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR (LESS THAN 1000 FT)
CEILINGS, MOSTLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH GAPS AND CANYONS THIS EVENING,
ACCELERATING WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT AT KABQ, AND AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH THE USUAL THREATS OF SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGER
HAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
VIRGA SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO. GREATER
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY COULD POSE
INCREASED THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS FOR WEST NEW MEXICO WHERE ERC'S
ARE IN THE 97TH PERCENTILES AND CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL STILL
BE QUITE DRY AS MIN RH WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS. MEANWHILE,
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NM,
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, BETTER MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL RETURN TO WESTERN NM. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
NORTHWEST NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUES AND WED, SO IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE IT WILL BE TRENDING DRIER AND WINDIER AS QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
FARMINGTON...................... 53 89 56 91 / 0 5 5 20
DULCE........................... 40 85 43 85 / 0 30 10 30
CUBA............................ 47 84 49 83 / 5 20 20 30
GALLUP.......................... 42 87 46 88 / 0 10 5 20
EL MORRO........................ 48 82 51 82 / 0 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 45 86 48 87 / 0 10 5 30
QUEMADO......................... 49 85 51 84 / 0 10 10 30
MAGDALENA....................... 52 84 56 82 / 5 10 20 40
DATIL........................... 49 83 52 81 / 0 20 20 40
RESERVE......................... 45 91 48 89 / 0 10 10 30
GLENWOOD........................ 50 95 52 93 / 0 10 20 30
CHAMA........................... 40 77 42 78 / 5 30 20 40
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 78 55 79 / 10 30 20 50
PECOS........................... 49 79 51 77 / 20 40 20 50
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 78 47 78 / 20 30 10 40
RED RIVER....................... 39 68 41 67 / 20 40 20 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 36 72 38 71 / 20 40 20 50
TAOS............................ 42 80 45 81 / 10 30 10 40
MORA............................ 43 76 46 75 / 30 40 20 50
ESPANOLA........................ 50 87 54 87 / 10 30 20 40
SANTA FE........................ 52 81 55 80 / 10 30 20 40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 84 54 84 / 10 30 20 40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 59 89 61 88 / 10 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 90 59 90 / 10 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 56 92 59 92 / 5 10 20 30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 90 61 90 / 5 10 20 20
BELEN........................... 53 91 56 91 / 5 10 10 20
BERNALILLO...................... 56 91 59 91 / 10 10 20 30
BOSQUE FARMS.................... 53 91 55 91 / 5 10 20 30
CORRALES........................ 57 91 59 91 / 10 10 20 30
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 91 56 91 / 5 10 10 20
PLACITAS........................ 57 86 59 86 / 10 10 20 30
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 91 60 90 / 5 10 20 30
SOCORRO......................... 58 94 59 93 / 5 10 20 30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 51 82 53 82 / 10 10 20 40
TIJERAS......................... 53 85 54 84 / 10 10 20 40
EDGEWOOD........................ 51 84 51 83 / 10 20 20 40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 85 48 84 / 10 20 20 40
CLINES CORNERS.................. 48 78 51 76 / 20 30 20 40
MOUNTAINAIR..................... 50 84 51 82 / 10 20 20 40
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 50 83 50 82 / 10 20 20 40
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 87 57 84 / 10 30 30 50
RUIDOSO......................... 50 78 53 77 / 10 50 30 50
CAPULIN......................... 45 74 48 75 / 70 20 10 10
RATON........................... 46 79 47 80 / 50 20 10 20
SPRINGER........................ 47 79 49 80 / 50 30 10 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 77 49 77 / 30 40 20 40
CLAYTON......................... 49 78 54 81 / 50 10 5 5
ROY............................. 49 76 51 79 / 50 30 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 55 82 56 86 / 30 20 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 79 55 83 / 30 30 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 55 80 57 85 / 30 10 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 56 78 59 86 / 40 10 20 10
PORTALES........................ 56 78 56 87 / 30 10 20 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 81 56 86 / 30 20 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 62 81 64 90 / 30 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 57 80 56 85 / 20 40 30 40
ELK............................. 54 81 53 84 / 20 40 30 50
ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...52
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