887
FXUS65 KLKN 160822 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1222 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1222 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
* STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND TUESDAY
* A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
* SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOOR TONIGHT
* WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS LIKELY ON ALL ROADS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM PST MON FEB 16 2026
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE IN ELKO COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY. 700 MB WINDS OUT AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 45 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA TO START THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING STRONG WINDS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, WHITE PINE, AND NORTHERN
NYE COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 800 AM PST. THIS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS IN THE ADVISORY WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH,
WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH (THOUGH OTHER LOCALES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY
WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH). PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS, THUS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR
LESS. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER ON TONIGHT,
STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN
ON THE DRY SIDE, BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S, SO
ANTICIPATING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEYS TO BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON. THINGS GET INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR
WORKING EASTWARD WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE VALLEYS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF
THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG IN THE MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT SOME CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA
AT 100 TO 200 J/KG. THERE COULD BE INTENSE SNOW BANDS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THAT WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE SNOWFALL RATES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. SNOW
SHOWERS, COUPLED WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS, REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL ONLY GET INTO THE 30S
AND 40S THROUGH THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE
SHOWING A COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE QUITE STRONG, ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE-SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. SOME
RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL HANG AROUND ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.
AFTER A BREAK ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BE ON THE MENU FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OVERALL COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM. HAVE USED A TWO/THREE TO ONE MIX OF
NBM95PCT AND NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS MORNING ACROSS KELY-KTPH. EXPECT S-SW20-30G35-45KT AFTER 18Z.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL SEE WINDS S-SW15-20G35KT THIS
AFTERNOON. BLDU FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VSBY
TO ONE MILE OR LESS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN TAFS. VCSH
IS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z ACROSS KTPH AND KWMC.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY NVZ030-031-035>041.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
NVZ034.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY NVZ035-037-
040-041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
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