406
FXUS65 KLKN 170740
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025
* AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED IN MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS
WILL PULL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER STATE.
AS A RESULT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS. THE CYCLONE ALOFT
WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED, PRIMARILY WET, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HERE ARE
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY, JULY 18TH, 2025:
LUND - 42%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 39%
ELY - 37%
DUCKWATER - 36%
EUREKA - 27%
JACKPOT - 26%
MANHATTAN - 26%
CURRIE - 25%
TONOPAH - 23%
WELLS - 20%
THE UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST
DAY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE SERVICE AREA.
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD,
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPANDED THE AREA OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S-SW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS.
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING A
15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING KEKO AND KENV. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM FL100 TO FL150. VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
NEARBY STORMS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS, WITH
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING STRIKES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW
AS SIX PERCENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...90
FIRE WEATHER...87
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