904
FXUS65 KLKN 112006 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
106 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1257 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
* A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NW BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE SILVER STATE BEYOND THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 106 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. NO UPDATES ARE
NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE LPC OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MEANDER OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN POSITION OVER THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SLOW MIGRATION OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE OVER NV. STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER WHITE
PINE COUNTY THOUGH INCREASED RH OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CRITERIA FROM BEING MET. SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL INITIATE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY UP
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY ON THURSDAY. WHILE CAPE VALUES OF
50-300 J/KG EXIST OVER A REGION ENHANCED BY GOOD FRONTOGENESIS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON PW VALUES THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH 0.65 WILL KEEP
ACTIVITY MAINLY DRY. IF PW NUMBERS CAN INCREASE CLOSER TO 0.7 A
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF MORE DRY THAN WET CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY THE SETUP IS SIMILAR THOUGH THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MIGRATE OUT OF THE STATE. PFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE BY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A RIDGE THAT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED LPC EJECT TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT RUN, HOWEVER, KEEPS
THE STORM TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND EXPAND TUESDAY PUSHING PERHAPS
SOME VORTICITY AND INCREASED FORCING CLOSER TO THE SILVER STATE.
THIS MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
THOUGH MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH
BUILDING RIDGING OVER THE SW CONUS TAKE POSITION BY LATE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: SOME DRY THUNDER WAS ADDED TO
GRIDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS NBM FAILED TO MATCH
AREAL COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WHERE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
HELD SUFFICIENT INGREDIENTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MIGRATION OF DRY
STORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT RULE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEATHER SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE REGION WILL
CREATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL AFFECT KBAM,
KEKO, AND KENV TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FALLING PRECIPITATION
IN AND NEAR THIS ACTIVITY MAY CAUSE MOMENTARY MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS AT THE KELY TERMINAL WILL GUST
NEAR 20KTS BEFORE SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES WILL INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY AND START OUT AS MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER SYSTEM CARRIES
WITH IT INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE. A CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OF MORE DRY
THAN WET WILL OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF STORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DRY. EASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE
425 WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT RH
VALUES STAY ABOVE FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
FRIDAY A SIMILAR SETUP EXISTS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MEANDERS TO THE
EAST THOUGH THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT TO
MORE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV OMITTING FOR THE MOST PART FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 424 AND 437 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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