877
FXUS65 KLKN 131949
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1249 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA
STARTING MONDAY
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE CURRENTLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR
LOOP IS DEPICTING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS WELL AS SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS MOVING NORTH AT ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY IS A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AT THIS TIME THAT IS
BRINGING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT,
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR OVER AN INCH. WITH RESPECT TO
CLIMATOLOGY, THIS AMOUNTS TO NEAR THE MAXIMUM VALUE FOR JULY 14.
FORECAST SURFACE-BASED CAPE WILL BE BETWEEN 200 TO 600J/KG WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY.
THERE IS AN ABOVE AVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH. LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY EVENING
WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOW TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS
INCLUDE MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP, WEATHER, WIND AND WIND GUST
GRIDS TO MORE ACCURATELY DEPICT MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL BE OVER
THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE MOISTURE PUSH, BUT LOW IN
LOCATION OF STORM FORMATION FOR TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH BY TUESDAY,
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA AT
ALL TERMINALS. BEST CHANCES FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL BE IN THE
EAST KEKO-KENV-KELY WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS IN AND AROUND -TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
FIRE WEATHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW. THIS WET AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES. FOR TUESDAY, SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NVZ031-033>041.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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