094
FXUS65 KLKN 242037
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
137 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY
* GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REPORTED
WITH THESE CELLS AND LITTLE TO NONE IS EXPECTED. THESE CELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
HEATING CUTS OFF THEIR ENERGY SOURCE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 40S. TOMORROW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOWER
48, WITH THE CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ITS OUTER
BANDS APPROACHING NEVADA. BACK HOME, THUNDERSTORMS AND ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR NORTHERN
NEVADA, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY. THE LOW CENTER
APPROACHES NEVADA FOR TUESDAY AND WINDS ONLY INCREASE AHEAD OF IT,
WITH CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA BEING WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS AS IT MEANDERS
ITS WAY AROUND NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
HOVERING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
LARGELY REMAIN AS RAIN AT LOW ELEVATIONS, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW,
HOWEVER LOW ELEVATION SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY AT THIS
TIME AND REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO
THE EAST BY SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR
THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION
POTENTIAL BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT FOR MONDAY. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS IMPACTS. DRY
CONVECTION WAS ADDED TO THE SHORT TERM WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS KEKO AND KENV
TERMINALS WITH CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45KT POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM. ISOLATED -TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 18Z MONDAY OVER
THE KBAM, KEKO, AND KENV LOCATIONS. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS ABOUT FIVE PERCENT AT KBAM, AND FIFTEEN PERCENT AT KEKO WITH
TEN PERCENT AT KENV. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 45KT ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SUNSET THIS
EVENING. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TOMORROW, WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DAYLIGHT
DRIVEN CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR ZONE 437 TOMORROW DUE TO WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AND MINIMUM RH
VALUES HOVERING AROUND 12%. THE STRONG WINDS SHIFT TO CENTRAL
NEVADA FOR TUESDAY, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE THE STORY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES RISING TO THE 30S
OR HIGHER. CONDITIONS WARM UP AND DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12PM PDT MONDAY THROUGH 11PM PDT MONDAY FOR
NVZ437.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...94
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