885
FXUS65 KLKN 082137
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
237 PM PDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON
* MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY DUE TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS CONTINUE TO BRING NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY WITH MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S. VARIOUS
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT FOR THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR EASTERN
ELKO COUNTY ENDING AT 11 PM PDT MONDAY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES.
THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS BRINGING IN MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA AND
THE BAJA THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA. ACTIVE MONSOON
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE UP TO 0.8
TO 1 INCH, ALONG WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING ABOVE 200 J/KG.
TODAY, MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, HOWEVER
THE SLOW MOTION OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTRIBUTE WITH SOME WETTING
RAINS REACHING THE VALLEYS. TOMORROW, A MORE MIX OF WET/DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEVADA WITH DRY
THUNDERSTORM REACHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FAST EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT BY THE
AFTERNOON, THE MOTION WILL SLOW DOWN, ALLOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE RAIN REACHING THE VALLEYS. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK, THE
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. AS FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY, PWAT VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1 INCH,
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IS LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO CHANCE
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ALONG THE STATE BORDER AS WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST
UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH LOW HUMIDITY AROUND 10% AND VERY HIGH
TEMPERATURES. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE
WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AS THE MONSOONAL
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE, CAUSING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO BE 20% OR ABOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND
TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS. MADE
CHANGES TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. VCTS CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER KELY AND
KTPH AS MONSOONAL FLOW PUSHES INTO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT BELOW 10 KTS WITH SOME BREEZY GUSTS UP TO 10-17 KTS OVER
THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER STRONG GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH
FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT AT KELY AND KTPH. CIG
LEVELS AROUND FL100-120 WITH SOME AS LOW AS FL050 AS CLOUD
DEVELOPS FROM INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE. ACTIVE MONSOON WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TERMINALS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS TOMORROW AND THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
FIRE ZONES 425, 426, AND PARTS OF 427 AS MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES
INTO CENTRAL NEVADA WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. RED FLAG WARNING
IS STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM MOTION IS MOVING SLOW WHICH MAY ALLOW
SOME WETTING RAINS TO REACH THE VALLEYS, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES FOR
AMPLE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES DUE TO
DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TOMORROW WITH A MIX OF WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOK FOR ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE IN THE
AFTERNOONS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ031-034-035
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ030-036-037-038-039-040-041
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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