179
FXUS65 KLKN 231928
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1228 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES.
* TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
COOLING COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: QUIET AND RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY PLEASANT FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 30S
AND 40S. WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
THESE WILL COME INTO PLAY CONCERNING AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE WILL BE HANDLED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RUN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS AND GUSTS SOME 5 TO 10 MPH HIGHER.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE
WESTERN PACIFIC FOR THE WEEKEND. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW END
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
COOL SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE WEEKEND. READINGS WILL BE IN THE
LOW 70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA.
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED COOL CONDITIONS WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: ADJUSTED WIND AND WIND GUST
GRIDS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH
COMES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WAS THE ONLY
CHANGE MADE TO THE NBM FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW IN THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM FOR
THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK PORTION. THERE IS A FIFTEEN TO TWENTY-FIVE
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON BREEZY WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS DRY
AND QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS TO 20 MPH AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME, EXPECTING MAINLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ACROSS FIRE ZONES
424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE FIFTEEN PERCENT WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 MPH. SOME OF THE DRIER AND WINDIER LOCALES COULD BRIEFLY
TOUCH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE
AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. LOOK FOR A SLOW
COOL DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SLOWLY INCREASING MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA DURING
THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED IN CENTRAL
NEVADA DURING THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH NEVADA MAY BRING A LOW FIFTEEN TO TWENTY FIVE
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA.
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH ONLY A TRACE TO
0.05” OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SELECT LOCATIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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