630
FXUS65 KLKN 240838
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
138 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH EACH AFTERNOON, ENDING BY SUNDAY
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE BACK WEST AND SOUTH OVER THE
DESERT SW, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE FEED,
MEANING STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
CHANGE FROM BEING SOUTHERLY TO MORE DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW, BRINGING
STORM CHANCES TO AN END AFTER SUNDAY. WITH THE DRYING TREND,
TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL, AND CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEVADA, AS HIGH TEMPERATURE
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 95 TO 103 DEGREES EACH DAY. MODELS HAVE HAD A
CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY FOR THE LONG TERM, MODELS RUNS PRIOR HAVE
HINTED AT A RETURN TO MONSOONAL FLOW OVER NEVADA BY THE END OF THE
MONTH. SOLUTIONS TODAY NOW SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING FARTHER
WEST SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT
REACHING 600 DAM, WHICH IS VERY STRONG. IF THIS SOLUTIONS SET
HOLDS, THE MONSOON WILL STAY EAST OF NV AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
AFTER WEDNESDAY EARLY AS MODEL CONSISTENCY IN POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
IS LOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KTPH AND KWMC.
PROB30S ARE IN EFFECT FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE A
CHANCE OF IMPACTING KEKO, KENV, KTPH, AND KELY, ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS UP TO 50KT AND POTENTIAL DECREASED
VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ALL SITES EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REACH ELEVATED LEVELS,
BUT DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ030-031-033-036-038.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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