463
FXUS65 KLKN 250848
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
148 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 5-10% THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
* HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S, TRENDING COOLER MID-WEEK
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY
* GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY; STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL NV
* UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES NV FROM THE PACIFIC NW.
WINDS GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST
AREAS, THOUGH FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WEAK
INSTABILITY IN COMBINATION WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES NEVADA FOR TUESDAY AND WINDS ONLY
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT, WITH CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA BEING
WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS AS IT MEANDERS ITS WAY AROUND NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOVERING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN AS RAIN AT LOW
ELEVATIONS, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW, HOWEVER LOW ELEVATION SNOW CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY
EVENT. THE LOW FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
STRONGER WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NV TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SLIGHT DEVIATION TO CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY TO GET SOME MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH FL100-150. THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES TODAY WILL BE 10% FOR KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, KENV AND KELY, AND
AROUND 5% FOR KTPH. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP TODAY COULD REACH 45 MPH. OTHERWISE, S-SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE, THOUGH
KWMC MAY SEE GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN
BLOWING DUST AND VIS AT KWMC AND KBAM TO 6SM.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH OVER MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A LITTLE STRONGER ACROSS NW NEVADA
INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONE 437 WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR
ZONE 437 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY BETWEEN 12 NOON AND 11PM PDT.
WEAK INSTABILITY SETS UP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
TODAY, WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS TUESDAY
SHIFT TO CENTRAL NV, ESPECIALLY ZONE 425 WHERE GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED. TRENDING COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12PM PDT MONDAY THROUGH 11PM PDT MONDAY FOR
NVZ437.
DISCUSSION...96/94
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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