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FXUS65 KLKN 171931
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1231 PM PDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING VERY GUSTY WINDS, AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR
VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AT ALL
LOCATIONS
* OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING MONDAY
MORNING
* A SLOW WARMUP WILL START MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA HAS OVER-PERFORMED SO FAR WITH RESPECT TO PRIOR FORECASTS
ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AS SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AND WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ELKO SO FAR HAD SEEN ABOUT 0.21” OF
WATER WHICH FELL AS 1.6 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THIS MORNING.
WINNEMUCCA HAS SEEN 0.17” OF WATER INCLUDING 0.2” OF SNOW SO FAR.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PERFORMANCE SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL THINK
THE SNOW RAIN TRANSITION WILL BE AT 4500 FEET, BUT COULD DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS IF CLOUDS CAN KEEP THE SUN AT BAY. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AS MODEL
TRENDS OUTSIDE OF THE NBM SUPPORT CURRENT WIND HEADLINES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE NBM IS THE LOW OUTLIER WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS SO WENT AHEAD AND UPPED THE WINDS TO BETTER
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AFTERNOON THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AND BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING
STRONGER DYNAMICAL LIFT. SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV
AS BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE BETTER
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 0.10” OF WATER FOR THE VALLEYS AND 1” TO
3” OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NV. AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL
NV HAVE RISEN TOO, WITH PRECIPITATION APPROACHING EUREKA AND SNOW
STARTING IN ELY. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR 0.05” TO 0.5” OF WATER FOR
THE VALLEYS, AND UP TO 2” TO 7” FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FAVORING EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY. UPPER TROUGH LOOK TO
MAKE ITS EXIT ACROSS UTAH AND INTO CO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WILL BE COOL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S TODAY, RECOVERING INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY WEAK WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NV ALONG
WITH WEAK AND SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO RETURN, ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70 TO LOW 80S BY NEXT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S, HOWEVER AS THE
WARMING TREND GETS UNDER WAY LOWS TO WILL WARM BACK ABOVE
FREEZING, REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AFTER MONDAY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEPARTURE: WENT AHEAD AND HAD TO BUMP UP THE WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY AREAS ACROSS HUMBOLDT, N
ELKO, S LANDER, S EUREKA, N NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS THE
NBM WINDS WERE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT TRENDS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH EASTERN
NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NV THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBTLE
RIDGING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
80S BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY, DROPS TO MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DROP CEILINGS TO 1000 FT OR
LESS.. BY THIS AFTERNOON, VALLEY TERMINAL LOCATIONS WILL SEE
-SHRASN FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
VCTSACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING PROHIBITS MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE
VERY STRONG OUT OF THE N20-30G40KT, THOUGH KTPH WILL SEE MUCH
STRONGER WINDS N25-35G50KT. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AND COULD RESTRICT
VSBY TO ONE MILE OR LESS BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO PLACE
IN FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH RAIN AND
SNOWFALL EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY EASE THRU TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROF EXITS
EAST. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THRU THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS RESIDING IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ030-031-035-037-041.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ040.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...92
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