068
FXUS65 KLKN 160946
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND
THURSDAY
* LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON AND
IDAHO BORDERS, AS WELL AS THE UTAH BORDER
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CUT OFF LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER NORCAL
THIS MORNING BEFORE EJECTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEVADA STATE
LINE FRIDAY MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE LOW OVER NORCAL TODAY
AND TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTELRY WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WHITE PINE
COUNTY AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH, REACHING 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE PRESENT.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NOT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING THE
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER, THAT BEING SAID, LOCATIONS ALONG THE
IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS MAY EXPERIENCE A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
OR TWO. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THOUGH
STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 15%. CONCURRENTLY,
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS UTAH, THANKS TO A NORTHERLY PUSH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL SPILL INTO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA AND PROVIDE A 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH STATE LINE. THE
EASTERN HALF OF WHITE PINE COUNTY, PRIMARILY OVER THE SNAKE RANGE,
WILL AGAIN BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS ATMOSPHERIC CONDTIONS LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE HERE.
AS THE CUT OFF LOW EJECTS EAST ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING, MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA, PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOLER
AIR MASS MOVE EAST.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THRU THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE VALLEYS BY
SUNDAY. A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
WILL BE PRESENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
NV BORDER AND IN EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. SIGNIFICANT GRID EDITS WERE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME
THOUGH DID MASSAGE POP GRIDS WITHIN WHITE PINE COUNTY TO BETTER
REPRESENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS THRU
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA TERMINALS INCLUDING KTPH AND KELY WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 25KT TO 30KT. PATCHY BLOWING DUST MAY CAUSE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS, PRIMARILY AT KTPH AND KELY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BLDU IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY
AND TOMORROW ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NV. THIS INCLUDES
FWZ 425/426/427/469/470. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH TODAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES OF 10-15% COMBINED WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW HAVE PROMPTED RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR FWZ 426/427
TODAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ACROSS EASTERN NV ARE
HIGHER (18-28%) PROMPTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FWZ
425/469/470 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE RH FORECAST WILL BE
REEVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE WATCHES
WILL BE UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNINGS.
A CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
LOW CHANCE (10% TO 15%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNDER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (10% TO 20%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER AND PARTICULARLY
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE 425, PRIMARILY THE SNAKE RANGE.
THAT SAID, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
TO THE EAST WITHIN UTAH WHERE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PROFILES AND
INSTABILITY ARE MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. BUT LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS USHERED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST INTO NEVADA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPRESSED WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF WHITE PINE
COUNTY THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM
11AM TO 8PM PDT FOR NV-FWZ426, NV-FWX427.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN ON THURSDAY FROM 11AM TO 8PM PDT FOR
NV-FWZ425, NV-FWZ469, & NV-FWZ470.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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