852
FXUS65 KLKN 242128
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2020
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
BACK UP INTO THE 70S. EXPECT A COUPLE MORE CRISP, COLD NIGHTS TO
START THE WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH IS GOING
ON AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE LOOP IS DEPICTING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER
ELKO COUNTY, WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IT'S EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN
THE 30S, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S.
IT WILL BE A NICE MEMORIAL DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE
70S AND 80S. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES BUT NOTHING OUT
OF THE ORDINARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO
SOME CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THEIR
UPWARD TRAJECTORY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S IN
SOME SPOTS. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US GOING NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PROJECTED
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 95-99 PERCENTILE RANGE IN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD
SETTING HEAT OVER THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS A RESULT HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 90S
OR EVEN THE LOW 100S BY FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND EVEN
LOW 60S OVER THE SAME PERIOD WHICH IS ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT GENERALLY AGREES WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE MID 90S BY WEEK'S END. SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TEMPERATURES RAMP UP INTO RECORD
TERRITORY. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIDES UNDER THE RIDGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TS ACTIVITY.
PREPARE FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND RECEDES AND A LONG WAVE
UPPER TROUGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INCREASES A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, THOUGH A NORTH BREEZE AT KTPH
COULD STILL GUST OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEK. BIG STORY WILL BE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS HEADING INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH POSSIBLE HIGH RECORDS SET. FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF
THE WEEKEND, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED BUT DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE MOISTURE FOR THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF
THIS WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
86/97/97/86
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