851
FXUS65 KLKN 142139
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY
* LOCALIZED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM,
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THIS MORNING'S 18 UTC SOUNDING CAME IN
QUITE MOIST AT 1.06 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER, WHICH CLOCKS IN
AT THE HIGHEST FOR THIS DAY. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN ELKO COUNTY WITH CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN HUMBOLDT AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES. THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IS A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS CENTER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES AT THIS TIME. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA IS STREAMING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
IS CONDUCIVE TO LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIOD TODAY. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS ON
TRACK AND WILL ALLOW IT TO CONTINUE THROUGH ITS EXPIRATION TIME
TONIGHT. INGREDIENTS CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 300-800J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 50. STORM MOTIONS ARE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS GIVEN THE LOW CORFIDI VECTOR
MAGNITUDES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE RADAR FOR HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE WEST AND POSITION
ITSELF ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. MODEL OUTPUT IS TRYING TO
KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE BEST CAPE VALUES ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA (ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES). 700-500MB STORM MOTIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AGAIN, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
MODERATE RAIN WITH SOME OF THE CELLS THAT FORM TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH.
IN ADDITION, FORECAST SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 300-700J/KG ARE
SEEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS CONCERN REGARDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY RAIN EVENT IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
MODEL SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
ACROSS UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A
RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A
VIGILANT WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THE SAME AREA AND DROP RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE 90S, THOUGH NO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE YET IN
THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE
TO THE POP, WEATHER, WIND AND WIND GUST GRIDS IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH REGARDS TO
THE SHORT TERM WET FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH
DURING THE EVENING, VCSH/VCTS REMAINS A THIRTY PERCENT PROBABILITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS KEKO-KENV-KELY DUE TO A
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE, THOUGH
ANY CELL WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
THROUGH 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES TODAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND MORE WET THAN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY FOR MOST
FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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