614
FXUS65 KLKN 061924
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1224 PM PDT TUE JUN 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
LOOK FOR THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY
50 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS BY THE
MID-EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL. HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. IT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND AMOUNTS
WERE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES.
LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME OF THE CELLS TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
FAVORABLE SHEAR, ENERGY, AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE BREEZY WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH IN CENTRAL NEVADA, CONVECTIVE
WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 40S AND 50S.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING DEWPOINTS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH
OF A EUREKA-LAGES JUNCTION LINE. STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LOOK FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AS MULTIPLE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE,
THE LONG TERM IS STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ENCOURAGE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS CURRENTLY
SHOW DAILY QPF TOTALS OF UP TO 0.20 INCHES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE AND UP TO 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WHILE THESE
NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES, ENSEMBLES
ARE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE.
THERE ARE TWO NOTABLE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS IN TOTAL QPF BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. ONE IS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS RELATIVELY
SIMILAR TO THE RANGES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
SEEING UP TO AN INCH AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS SEEING 0.2 TO
0.5 INCHES. THE SECOND CLUSTER, THOUGH IT IS MADE UP OF FEWER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, IS SHOWING HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
NORTHERN NEVADA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SHOWING UP
TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF BY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE
DETERMINISTIC VALUE FOR THESE MULTI-DAY QPF TOTALS, THE COMMON
DENOMINATOR IS A WET PATTERN REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN ALSO LEADS TO RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AFTERNOON HIGHS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE 60S
AND 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SITES KWMC, KBAM, AND
KEKO. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL, BUT
POCKETS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSITE WOULD RESULT IN
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SUCH AS LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG
WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. ACTIVE WEATHER DIMINISHES BY 03Z TO
06Z, BUT SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN HIGH AND SWIFT AS
SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO MELT FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA
MOUNTAINS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS, WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW THAT ANY GIVEN THUNDERSTORM WILL CAUSE INCREASED HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS. SMALLER CREEKS LIKE LAMOILLE WILL SEE DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS, BUT LARGER RIVERS THAT ARE SLOWER RESPONDING WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. THE SWOLLEN STREAM FROM SNOWMELT WATER CAN
BE DANGEROUS AS MULTIPLE PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN THEM OUT WEST SO USE
CAUTION WHEN ON STREAMS FRESH FROM THE MOUNTAINS.
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS:
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT COMUS (MODERATE FLOODING)
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT BATTLE MOUNTAIN (MINOR FLOODING)
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING:
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT PALISADE
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT CARLIN
* LAMOILLE CREEK
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
86/84/84
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