014
FXUS65 KLKN 130801 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1201 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
* WARMING TREND TODAY AND SATURDAY
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY
* A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK
* TURNING COLDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY, DRYING THE REGION OUT AND BUMPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY THROUGH SUNDAY.
QUIET WEATHER IS SHORT-LIVED AS A MUCH STRONGER ULT BEGINS TO
ENCROACH ON THE STATE BY SUNDAY PM. AS THE TROUGH MAKES LANDFALL
OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY ITS SOUTHEASTERN EDGE WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. A RESULTING JET IN THE
DOWNSTREAM FLOW WILL SIGNAL STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
SPEEDS PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV MONDAY.
THE ULT WILL PUSH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK RIDING THE PARENT TROUGHS AXIS PATTERN. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE WAVE PASSAGES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS A FAIRLY HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AS EACH WAVES PASSES THROUGH THE BASIN. EXACT TIMING
OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER THE AREA HAS DANCED BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH RECENT RUNS. A MONDAY
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN INITIAL RAINFALL THAT WOULD CHANGEOVER AND
STAY SNOWFALL BY TUESDAY. A TUESDAY INITIATION WOULD MEAN MORE
SNOW THAN RAIN AS COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST WAVE PASSAGE
ENTRENCHES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
WITH THIS STACCATO OF SHORTWAVES FOR A MULTI INCH SNOWFALL TOTAL
BY SYSTEMS END THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE WILL
HONE IN ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS AS TIME GROWS CLOSER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRIER, WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REASONABLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY, THOUGH WINDS SPEED ARE PROBABLY UNDERDONE BY
NBM MODEL OUTPUT PER USUAL. LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VCFG MAY HAMPER VIS AND CIGS AT KEKO, KELY, AND KBAM EARLY THIS
MORNING, BEFORE BURNING OFF MY MIDDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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