288
FXUS65 KLKN 192057
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
157 PM PDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER
* SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
ACROSS NORTHERN NV AND 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL NV
* A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NEVADA AS VERY STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
* A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
* COLDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CONTINUING ITS
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THE NORTH
THOUGH BREEZY IN THE CENTRAL WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 MPH. LOOK FOR
THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S AND
40S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
A LARGE, CLOSED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE WOBBLING EASTWARD FOR
MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN CALIFORNIA. FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 70S,
WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS FELT ON SUNDAY. EVEN
WITH THIS WARMING, ONLY ONE CLIMATE SITE WILL BE NEAR ITS RECORD.
ELKO AIRPORT'S CURRENT RECORD WAS SET BACK IN 1994 WHEN THE HIGH
REACHED 82 DEGREES. THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGH WILL BE 78 DEGREES
TOMORROW. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES FOR HIGHS. WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LOWER DUE TO THE SLOW
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE INCOMING CUTOFF TROUGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.
FOR TUESDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LOW'S CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
PROJECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION IS BARELY ABLE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA BY EARLY MORNING. LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE
DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. STRONG
TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL BE DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN CENTRAL
NEVADA WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE WIND PROBABILITIES FOR SPEEDS AT
OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH HAVE TRENDED UPWARD: EUREKA AIRPORT IS
SHOWING ROUGHLY EIGHTY-FIVE PERCENT PROBABILITY, ELY AIRPORT IS
ABOUT SIXTY PERCENT PROBABILITY, AND TONOPAH AIRPORT IS SITTING
AROUND EIGHTY PERCENT PROBABILITY. BASED ON THESE VALUES, AS WELL
AS MODEL TRENDS, HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY FOR
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, WHITE PINE, AND NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST
NYE COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME POSSIBLE REVISION TO THE
HEADLINE PRODUCTS. WITH ALL OF THE WIND, BLOWING DUST WILL BE A
CONCERN AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF DUST RESTRICTED VISIBILITY
TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. FINALLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. ALL
LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN DURING THE DAY DUE TO THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN WEST-
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH CAPE
WILL BE RATHER PATHETIC. BY THE OVERNIGHT, SOME COOLING INTO THE
40S WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS TO ABOUT 5500 TO
6000 FEET OR SO DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
LIKELY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATION IN THE VALLEYS.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FILL AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY
BUT SPEEDS AS OF NOW LOOK TO BE MUCH LESS THAN ON TUESDAY. LOOK
FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
WEDNESDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS WELL WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S. THE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT AGAIN, ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED GIVEN THE INSOLATION FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BUT ANOTHER LOBE IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND
30S FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND
30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
NBM WIND FORECAST FOR TUESDAY TO BRING THE SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH RESPECT TO
THE WARMING AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VERY STRONG
WINDS ON TUESDAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA. CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO
MODERATE TO HIGH WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOUR PERIOD. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE THE KTPH AND KELY TERMINALS
WILL SEE GUSTS TO 30-35KT IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED BLDU IS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST WINDS BUT PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
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