468
FXUS65 KLKN 201921
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1221 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
* COOLER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
LARGE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY, BEFORE MAKING IS TURN
INLAND TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO
LIFT INTO NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE LOW OPENING UP
INTO A BROAD TROUGH. BY FRIDAY MORNING MOST OF THE MAIN ENERGY
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO UTAH AS THE TROUGH SPLITS INTO TWO PIECES,
WITH THE NORTHERN HALF LIFTING INTO MONTANA AND ALBERTA AND A
SOUTHERN PIECE RE-ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW THAT WILL
DRIFT FROM ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. THIS LOW
TO TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA, EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES NORTH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE THE BEST COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE MAIN ENERGY OF THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NEVADA, WITH A FEW
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WHITE PINE, AND ELKO COUNTIES
AS THE BEST CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE CO-LOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT. THE SPC HAS THIS REGION HIGH LIGHTED FOR A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BY FRIDAY MORNING COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL TRY
AND FILTER IN, AND SNOW LEVELS WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR 9000 FEET FOR
MAJORITY OF TIME WILL DROP TO ABOUT 6000 FEET JUST AS THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. TIMING MAY
ALLOW FOR SNOWFALL WHICH HAD BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO REACH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION PASSES ON NV225
FRIDAY MORNING, AS TOTAL LOOK TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 0.2”.
HOWEVER THE RANGE PEAKS LOOK TO SEE THE BEST SNOW CHANCES WITH UP
TO A 18” POSSIBLE ABOVE 9000 FEET ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOST LOCATION
LOOK TO PICK UP FROM 0.25” TO 0.75” IN THE VALLEYS WITH UP TO
2.00” OF LIQUID FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN ON THE HEELS OF THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, WITH THE RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL BY SUNDAY, WITH
CONTINUED RIDGING LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON, AND
PERSISTING ON AND OFF THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT OR AROUND ALL SITES
EXCEPT KENV. SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES
AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THEY WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY TOMORROW.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH TODAY, WHILE ALL OTHER
SITES REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH ACTIVITY PEAKING DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WHERE THUNDERSTORMS AREN’T, AND WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED FIRE
CONCERNS WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE RAINS AND MOIST AIR.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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