819
FXUS65 KLKN 041954
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1254 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY AND BREEZY INTO SATURDAY.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT.
* ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO RECORD HIGHS ARE
FORECAST BUT ELY WILL COME CLOSE TO A DAILY RECORD HIGH ON FRIDAY
(50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST TYING THE RECORD OF 91). BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER WINDS
BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OREGON INTO
THE SILVER STATE BRINGING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD ZONE OF AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40 MPH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US 50 AND ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF US 6 IN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE IN WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH A 50%
CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FROM 10 TO 15% SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
COMBINE WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
MOISTURE LIMITED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
A SECONDARY TROUGH QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FIRST SUNDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WHITE PINE COUNTY (20% OR
LESS) ALONG THE REMNANT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE REMAINS
THE LIMITING FACTOR ONCE AGAIN.
LONG WAVE TROUGHING LOOKS TO REMAIN THE MAIN FEATURE AT PLAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FEATURING HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL THEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA NORTH OF I-80 WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE ANOMALIES FINALLY INCREASE ABOVE NORMAL.
NEARLY A 25% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES EACH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON CUMULUS
BUILDUPS ARE EXPECTED WITH CAPE VALUES OF 50 TO 100 J/KG ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND
HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
80-90% CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF FIRE ZONE 425 AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FIRE ZONES 424, 438, 469,
AND 470. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LONG WAVE TROUGHING PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS VARY IN AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE HOW FAR SOUTH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, HOWEVER KEKO/KELY/KTPH CAN ALL
EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS UP TO 20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
MILD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH
A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON BREEZES CREEPING INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY FOR TOMORROW. NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA, WITH FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES OUT FOR SIX OF EIGHT FIRE ZONES. THE WIND/RH
THREAT DIES OFF FOR SUNDAY BUT THE DRY THUNDER RISK STILL SHOWS
SIGNS OF TAKING ITS PLACE, ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT HAS WEAKENED
EVEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY’S MARGINAL SETUP. WINDS LOOK TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NEVADA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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