758
FXUS65 KLKN 111037
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 334 AM PDT SAT APR 11 2026
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY AS RADAR
RETURNS ARE SHOWING MINOR RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ACTIVE WEATHER FROM AN ONCOMING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TODAY,
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY AND WHITE PINE COUNTY UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING BUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY STILL PUSH INTO THE COUNTIES. CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FOR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH
LINGERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NYE AND LANDER COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TODAY, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET. OVERNIGHT, SNOW LEVELS
BEGIN TO DROP AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN, BUT REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET
KEEPING SNOW CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-30 MPH, GUSTS 45
TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR N. NYE, SOUTHERN
EUREKA AND LANDER, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING.
TOMORROW, THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS BRINGING IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD AS AN UPPER RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES
SITUATES OVER THE MIDWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BRING IN PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BEING MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
LANDER, EUREKA, AND ELKO COUNTIES. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SPEEDS OF UP TO 15-25 MPH,
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-40 MPH. COOLER AIR WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
REACH TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THIS WILL
KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN AS SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET, ALLOWING MORE MUCH NEEDED MOUNTAIN SNOW.
TONIGHT, COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN TO BELOW 6000 FEET, BRINGING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE
HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS SEEING UP TO 0.5 INCHES WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF REACHING THE VALLEYS.
SUNDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH POSSIBLE CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL KEEP SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET, MAKING PRECIPITATION FALL AS VALLEY RAIN
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20
MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S, DROPPING SNOW LEVELS
TO AROUND 5000 FEET ACROSS THE REGION, GIVING CHANCES OF SNOW
REACHING THE VALLEYS UP TO 0.5 INCHES WITH HIGHER PASSES AND
SUMMITS SEEING UP TO 1-2 INCHES. BY MONDAY MORNING, SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE VALLEYS, THEN BECOMING RAIN/SNOW MIX
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING BACK TO 6000
FEET. BY THE AFTERNOON, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF NEVADA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN OVER THE
STATE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW MOVES
OVER NEVADA. THIS CALMING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AS MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CLIP NORTHERN NEVADA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL AS
WELL AS INCREASING CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN
NEVADA. BY FRIDAY, MODELS SHOWING THE POSITION OF THE LOW TROUGH
PUSHING EAST BUT KEEPING COOLER AIR ALOFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ACTIVE ONGOING WEATHER LASTING THROUGH MONDAY WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VALLEY SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER
THURSDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR SOME ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. VCSH CONDITIONS AT ALL NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH CHANCES OF -RA AND POSSIBLE -TSRA ACROSS ALL
NORTHERN TERMINALS TODAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINANT ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM PASSING STORMS. THIS EVENING, WEATHER
PATTERNS SHIFT WITH POSSIBLE -RA AND -TSRA CONDITIONS REACHING
TOWARDS KTPH BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW SO WILL BE OUT OF THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10
KTS, HOWEVER PASSING THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE VRB WINDS AT 10-20
KTS, GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS. FOR KTPH AND KELY, ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF VCSH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
STRONG SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTS AS HIGHS AS
30-35 KTS. A WIND ADVISORY IS OUT OVER THE CENTRAL TERMINALS UNTIL
9 PM TONIGHT. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER
THERE MAY STILL BE SOME LINGER VCSH OR -RA CONDITIONS OVER THE
TERMINALS. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...97
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