981
FXUS65 KLKN 131937
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1137 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM PST SAT DEC 13 2025
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO THREATEN RECORDS
ACROSS THE AREA
* FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
* STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AROUND MID WEEK AND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CENTERED AROUND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO KEEP DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY WEEK COULD REACH OR
BREAK TEMPERATURE RECORDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE.
UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH GRADIENTS TIGHTENING MORE DIRECTLY
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA. THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING THE
JET STREAM OVERHEAD, GIVING STRONGER WINDS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN JET EXIT WILL GIVE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEVADA WHICH WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INFILTRATE BEYOND I-80, STAYING TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA DESPITE WINDS REACHING AS FAR
AS THE US-50 CORRIDOR.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM
THE JET EXIT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ON WETTING RAINS FOR NORTHERN
NEVADA IN THE MID-WEEK ARE LOW, AS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE
PUSHING SOUTH WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFTING MECHANISM. BY LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND MODELS ARE SHOWING
GREATER AGREEMENT THAT THE ZONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT WITH INCREASING
CHANCE OF GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA. CENTRAL NEVADA HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY AS THE
MOISTURE STAYS NORTH OF US-50.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONGER WINDS
MOVING INTO NEVADA BY MID-WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MID-WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A STRONGER WEATHER IMPACT
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD AS THE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING, SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE UP
TO 10 KTS AT KTPH AND KELY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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