453
FXUS65 KLKN 172051
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1251 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1237 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
* STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NV CONTINUE TODAY.
* A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THRU THE WEEK.
* WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ACTIVE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV CONTINUES TODAY THANKS TO A LARGE ULT TO THE NORTH DRAGGING ITS
AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
TROUGH AXIS IS KEEPING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRISK OVER CENTRAL
NV. A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN CWA LOCATIONS IN NYE,
LANDER, EUREKA, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THE FIRST OF MANY
SHORTWAVES RIDING THE AXIS' FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND THE REGION
ARE AS SUCH:
ELKO: 1"
SPRING CREEK: 1"
WINNEMUCCA: 1"
ELY: 5"
EUREKA: 3"
TONOPAH: 2"
WENDOVER: T"
CENTRAL NV WILL ENJOY BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS OF A LIMITING FACTOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO
MONDAY EVENING. BETTER FRONTOGENESIS AND ENOUGH CAPE TO MENTION
THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV. AS THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY A SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
A MORE TRADITIONAL STORM TRACK WILL PUSH PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AM. SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF VALLEY
SNOW WILL HIGHER PEAKS AND ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL ON TOP OF WHAT THE FIRST WAVE HAS DEPOSITED.
AS THE SECOND WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA IT WILL TAKE ADEQUATE MOISTURE
WITH IT AS BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THOUGH, ANOTHER LARGE ULT SETS UP OFF THE
PNW COAST. A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE ULTS AXIS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
CA SUNDAY PM AND BEGIN TO INITIATE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN
NV BY MONDAY AM AS IT CARRIES SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH IT INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS NEXT SET OF WAVES WILL HAVE A COLDER ATMOSPHERE
TO INTERACT WITH SETTING UP POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNOWY WEEK NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE
AREA THOUGH AMOUNTS AND TOTALS HAVE FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST FEW
MODEL RUNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WINTER WX DRIVING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WERE INCREASED USING 90% NBM FOR FIRST
18 HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.
AVIATION
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
DUE TO LOW CIGS, LOW VIS, AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST AS ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHSN AND
-SN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS OF
30-35KTS IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NV TERMINALS WHILE KTPH AND
KELY WILL SEE GUSTS CLOSER TO 40KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLSN THAT WILL HELP
REDUCE VIS. -SHSN AND -SN WILL IMPACT VIS AT ALL TERMINALS THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL. A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL OCCUR BEFORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
RAMPS BACK UP TO 30-35KTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
NVZ030-031-035>041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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