274
FXUS65 KLKN 122116
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
116 PM PST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM PST FRI DEC 12 2025
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO THREATEN RECORDS
ACROSS THE AREA
* FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
* NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CENTERED AROUND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MANY BROKEN HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH AND EASTWARD BY EARLY
SUNDAY AM. THE REGION STAYS DRY INTO MONDAY, HOWEVER, EVEN WITH A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NV SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE VALUES OVER
THE REGION DO NOT INCREASE UNTIL LATE MONDAY EVENING.
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY MONDAY THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS MODEL RUN FEATURES A MORE PRONOUNCED AND
DEVELOPED WAVE WITH MORE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL CARRY SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO PROMOTE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80.
THE RECENT OUTBREAK OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MORE OF
A RAIN MAKER THAN A SNOW PRODUCER FOR NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
ARE ONLY BEGINNING TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION THAT FEATURES ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MID NEXT WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERLY
RIDGE HAVING MORE INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA THAN ITS TROUGH
COUNTERPART. THAT BEING SAID A LOWER AMOUNT RAINFALL SOLUTION MAY
ULTIMATELY PAN OUT. LOWER ELEVATION RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
CURRENTLY TRACKING AT 0.1-0.15 ALONG AND NORTH FOR BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE REGULATED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN NORTHERN NV, SPECIFICALLY JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA.
A MORE SUBTLE WAVE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. LONG TERM OUTLOOKS DRY THE AREA OUT
BY SUNDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN WARM UNSEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW HOWEVER ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
WEEKS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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