513
FXUS65 KLKN 022043
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
143 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY.
* NEAR-RECORD HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MODERATE RISK
OF HEAT- RELATED ILLNESSES FOR HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS.
* UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HEAT RELATED HEADLINE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED BY MID-
WEEK.
* SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CAUSE REDUCED AIR QUALITY AND MAY
LEAD TO RESPIRATORY ISSUES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
PLENTIFUL SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
SMOKE IS PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SPOTS ALONG WITH REDUCED
AIR QUALITY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE AND WE WILL
BE EXPECTING ANOTHER NIGHT OF QUIET WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS WE START THE NEW
WORK WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS ARIZONA
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. IT WILL BE A LITTLE BIT
COOLER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SMOKE WILL BE
PREVALENT IN A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS DUE TO THE ONGOING WILDFIRES.
IT WILL BE A CALM AND COOL OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS WILL BRING A SLOW WARMUP TO THE AREA. THOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED AS HEATRISK
INDICES CLIMB TO MODERATE TO MAJOR. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THURSDAY:
AUSTIN – 0%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN – 85%
ELKO – 80%
ELY – 0%
EUREKA – 0%
JACKPOT – 25%
JARBIDGE – 0%
OWYHEE – 55%
RUTH – 0%
SPRING CREEK – 60%
TONOPAH – 0%
WELLS – 70%
WEST WENDOVER – 75%
WILDHORSE RES – 5%
WINNEMUCCA – 80%
THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES EACH DAY, BUT NOTHING TOO
STRONG IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S
TO EVEN THE 60S IN THE WARMER LOCALES.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH. AT THIS TIME, BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST WITH
FRIDAY'S READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S. A WEAK PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BRING SOME VERY HIGH-BASED CUMULUS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL NEVADA. AFTERNOON BREEZES CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 100 DEGREES FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR FRIDAY:
AUSTIN – 2%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN – 99%
ELKO – 95%
ELY – 0%
EUREKA – 0%
JACKPOT – 35%
JARBIDGE – 0%
OWYHEE – 65%
RUTH – 0%
SPRING CREEK – 80%
TONOPAH – 0%
WELLS – 90%
WEST WENDOVER – 95%
WILDHORSE RES – 5%
WINNEMUCCA – 90%
LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S. THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EAST FOR SATURDAY WITH
A CONTINUATION OF THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CREEP, LEADING TO A FEW
MORE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, BUT WILL STILL BE HOT WITH READINGS IN THE
90S AND 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO THE TRIPLE
DIGITS BY THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FIELDS
WERE MADE IN THE NEAR TERM NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF HAZY SKIES.
KELY MAY SEE THE VIS DROP TO 6SM OR LOWER THROUGH THIS EVENING
DUE TO SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BREEZES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE KWMC TERMINAL. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON BREEZES TOMORROW.
FIRE WEATHER
A COMBINATION OF RH VALUES NEAR 10% AND SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-33 MPH HAS PROMPTED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FWZ 470 UNTIL 11PM SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHTER
OVER ALL FIRE ZONES THIS WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. EXTREME HEAT
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THIS
WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WEST,
SETTING UP SHOP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO CREEP SLOWLY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL FIRE ZONES OF 425, 426, AND 427. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE
IS VERY LOW BUT THE SCENARIO BEARS WATCHING GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS CONSIDERING THE VERY HOT WEATHER THE AREA
HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ470.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page