422
FXUS65 KLKN 161013
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
313 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 90S
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND INCREASES CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVERHEAD MOVING
SOUTH. OVERALL, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE FLOW IS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, RESULTING
IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RETREAT SLIGHTLY ON THE HEATRISK WITH
RESPECT TO AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND
FROM PREVIOUS SHIFTS BY MESSAGING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND BRING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA AS A RESULT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL BE AROUND A HALF-INCH OR SO WITH ABOUT 100-150J/KG OF CAPE
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION GIVEN
HOW HIGH THE BASES WILL BE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
DURING THE DAY, BUT ANY STORM IN CENTRAL NEVADA COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH SOME
AFTERNOON BREEZES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
ON FRIDAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP TO
PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MORE WET STORMS IN THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
THE WEAK EAST PACIFIC TROUGH ON SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO
A MORE EAST TO WEST FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS OVER NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY AS THE REST OF THE MOISTURE GETS
SCOURED OUT. COVERAGE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED ON SUNDAY WITH NOT MUCH EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SATURDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODIFICATIONS TO THE NBM
FORECAST WERE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE
COVERAGE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ON FRIDAY WERE ALSO
BUMPED SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AS WELL. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERNOON
NORTHWEST BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA AS WIND GUSTS 25
TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN ZONES 469 AND 470. THERE COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH BUT COVERAGE AND TIME
REQUIREMENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO PUSH
NORTH AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR-CORNERS HIGH ON
THURSDAY, LEADING TO THE DEVELOP OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD FRIDAY
WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TRANSITIONING TO WET
AND DRY STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY IN EAST- CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
ZONES 425, 426, AND 427. THIS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST ELEVATED
WIND/LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS IN THESE ZONES THOUGH IF
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKER, THIS COULD LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLING CONDITIONS INTO THE 80S WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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