423
FXUS65 KLKN 041934
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1234 PM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY, AND AGAIN
FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY.
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
* LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN NEVADA.
* POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING COOLER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. MONDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH NEVADA. THIS TROUGH PRIMARILY WILL HELP SERVE AS A PUSH TO
UPPER RIDGE. THERE WILL BE A VERY CONDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT PASSES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM, MOST MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO INTERIOR OF NEVADA. OBSERVED PWAT VALUES
FROM OAK AND MFR SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOW 0.86” AND 0.60”
RESPECTIVELY. WHICH IF TRANSLATED EAST WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF
BORDERLINE FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCING STORM POTENTIAL GIVEN HOW
DRY CURRENT LOW LEVELS ARE. SHOULD PWAT VALUES COME IN HIGHER THAN
FORECAST, HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY
TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL BE EAST INTO UTAH, AND INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, BY WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER THE WESTERN US, AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. BY NEXT SATURDAY MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE THAT MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE, WETTER WEATHER BACK TO NEVADA
IN THE FORM OF A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS THERE ARE STILL LARGE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH IN RECENT MODEL RUNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL NEAR TO RECORD, OR
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR FAR NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AS
A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH TAKES AIM AT NEVADA FOR NEXT
WEEKEND
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH W TO SW WINDS OF 5KT TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED VCTS
FOR KBAM, AND KEKO, AND KENV MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NEVADA.
FIRE WEATHER
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 469/470 ON MONDAY EXISTS. ANY
STORMS THAT DO INITIATE WILL BE MORE WET THAN DRY. GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF STORM ACTIVITY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...99
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