636
FXUS65 KLKN 272014
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
114 PM PDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
* WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM INTO NV NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
CANADA CONTINUES TO DICTATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS IN THE EARLY WEEK. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE
STATE TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR DEPICTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME BUILD-UPS OVER CENTRAL NV. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS DISAPPOINTING IN TERMS OF AVAILABLE CAPE OVER THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. THAT BEING SAID CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV COULD SEE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN
0.10-0.25 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND WAVE PUSHING THROUGH NV ON TUESDAY WILL SPORT BETTER
CAPE VALUES (ESPECIALLY OVER NE NV) BUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
ISN'T AS STRONG. A WARMING TREND BEGINS TUESDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A
WARMER ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD MAY INFLUENCE ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY PM.
THE ULT OVER CANADA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE NE FLANK OF AN HPC TO THE SOUTHWEST TO INFLUENCE A
BRIEF QUIET PERIOD IN THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH LATE WEEK. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE
REGION WITH ITS LPC CENTERED OVER PUGET SOUND BY SATURDAY. TIMING
AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH NEXT WEEKENDS SYSTEM CURRENTLY
SUFFER FROM MODEL DISAGREEMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY, THOUGH LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THUNDER
ACROSS CENTRAL NV DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN MODELED DATA AND
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THAT LOCATION. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE NO CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VCTS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR KTPH AND KELY MONDAY
EVENING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST IN AND AROUND TS ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR AROUND TS ACTIVITY WHERE GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS WILL EXIST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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