581
FXUS65 KLKN 291957
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1257 PM PDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THRU SUNDAY
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
* PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AS THE PARENT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA
SLOWLY PUSHES EAST, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPSTREAM
FLOW OF THE ULT IMPACT NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CURRENTLY AS THE
FIRST WAVE IS PUSHING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SHOWERS AND
BUILD UPS ARE DEPICTED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. A LOW CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
UNDERWHELMING. THURSDAY'S CHANCES OF CONVECTION HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS. THE SECOND WAVE HAS JOGGED
SLIGHTLY EAST FROM YESTERDAYS POSITIONING LEADING TO LESS FORCING
(LESS FAVORABLE LI) AND INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE WARMING TREND IS STILL TRACKING AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
INCREASING INCREMENTALLY EVERY AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ARE ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORM AS AN
LPC OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS IT WILL TRAVEL
SOUTH DOWN THE CA COAST. AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH THIS OPENS THE
REGION UP TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STRENGTHENING TROUGH. PGF TIGHTENS ENOUGH FOR BRISK WINDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL
NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST MONDAY
INCREASING VORTICITY AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ISN'T SPORTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE FOR THE AREA SO PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS AREN'T VERY
ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM SO FAR. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. STRONGER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
WARMING TREND OCCURRING NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TODAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION ARE VERY UNDERWHELMING
AND HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN
STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR CENTRAL NV ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IMPACTING THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEKO AND KENV HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS 21-03Z WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY BUT WOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...94
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