060
FXUS65 KLKN 101653
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
953 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY
* NEAR RECORD HEAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BUILD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
UTAH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
TEN DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY. RECORD HEAT IS
EXPECTED IN ELKO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD HEAT IS
ANTICIPATED IN ELY AND EUREKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY, JULY 11TH, 2026:
ELKO - 100%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 100%
WEST WENDOVER - 100%
CARLIN - 99%
WINNEMUCCA - 98%
WELLS - 98%
EUREKA - 80%
SPRING CREEK - 75%
ELY - 70%
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER STATE. THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
TRANSITION TO WET CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR A DAILY
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE ARE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY, JULY 14TH, 2026:
EUREKA - 48%
ELY - 46%
AUSTIN - 43%
RUBY LAKE - 42%
DUCKWATER - 41%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 41%
WELLS - 35%
ELKO - 34%
CARLIN - 32%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN NEAR
RECORD HEAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA NEXT WEEK. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE
TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS 6 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST IN PARTS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ031-034-035-038-039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
NVZ036-037-040-041.
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