544
FXUS65 KLKN 271931
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1231 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NV
* SMOKE FROM AREAS FIRES CAUSING VISIBILITY AND RESPIRATORY ISSUES
OVER NORTHERN NV TODAY
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK
* INCREASING HEATRISK BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS REFLECTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN NV BORDER COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE VALUES (150-300
J/KG) IS HELPING KEEP ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE NEW FIRE STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THAT WILL AGGRAVATE
EXISTING FIRE BEHAVIOR.
SPEAKING OF FIRES, SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES IN ELKO COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT VISIBILITY IN THE AREA AND
CREATE RESPIRATORY ISSUES FOR SOME. SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY IS
HELPING PUSH SMOKE FROM ID OUT OF NORTHERN NV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP SMOKE FILTER BACK
INTO NORTHERN NV LEADING TO A SMOKY TUESDAY MORNING SUNRISE.
STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY THE UT BORDER
AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF ELKO COUNTY. MONSOON MOISTURE
IS SLOWLY BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS THE HPC OVER THE PANHANDLES
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE EXISTS A
LOW CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE UT BORDER AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT BEYOND MID WEEK THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE REALLY
BECOMES CUTOFF AS THE HPC EXPANDS WESTWARD. A PROLONGED HEAT EVENT
IS ANTICIPATED WITH PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN
100F CLIMBING ABOVE 75% FOR LOCAL CLIMATE SITES FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HPC AND HOT, DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NV TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
BUILDS IN SMOKE BOTH TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK CAUSING VISIBILITY
AND RESPIRATORY ISSUES AS AREA WILDFIRE ACTIVITY CONTINUES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK
THAT WILL BRING MAJOR HEATRISK TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KWMC, KEKO, KENV, AND KELY
TERMINALS MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM ONGOING AREA
WILDFIRES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WHEN SMOKE IS
NOT LOWERING VIS VALUES. AFTERNOON WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST
AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 20-25KTS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AFTER SUNSET. A LOW PERCENT
CHANCE OF -TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KELY AND KENV MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS IN AND AROUND TS ACTIVITY WILL BRIEFLY BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCE OF STORM ACTIVITY EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER FWZ 425/470 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TAPPING INTO LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE SO STORM NATURE SHOULD BE
MORE WET THAN DRY. STORM MOTION, HOWEVER, IS RELATIVELY QUICK
MITIGATING EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION. IMPACTS WILL BE NEW FIRE
STARTS FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR
EXISTING FIRES FROM GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN AND NEAR STORMS.
OTHERWISE, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15 MPH IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
20-25 MPH. TUESDAY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF FWZ 470.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page