857
FXUS65 KLKN 160909
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
209 AM PDT SAT OCT 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS RETURN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV
ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION TODAY RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 20S
EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 60S OR LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON. TROUGH ENERGY APPROACHING THE WEST COAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL PUSH THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN FARTHER EAST, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASING OVER NV. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD IN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, GENERALLY MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL BE
THE ONLY PRECIPITATION DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONGSIDE ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE SEEING THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR FOR MONDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL
HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH RECENT MODELS SHOWING THE BEST SNOW-LEVEL
RESTING AROUND 4,000 TO 4,500 FEET IN ELEVATION, WHICH COULD BRING
SNOW TO SOME VALLEYS. HOWEVER, TIMING WILL BE EVERYTHING AS DAY
TIME HEATING WILL MAKE A MIX OR RAIN THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
THE LOWER LOCATIONS. FOR NOW, LOOK FOR MOST SNOW ACCUMULATION TO
OCCUR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN TOPS LOOKING TO
ADD A FEW INCHES. WINDS WILL ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MAKES IT QUICK ENTRANCE AND
EXIT OVER THE DAY.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, MODEL AGREEMENT SEES THE TROUGH QUICKLY MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTH LEAVING A RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
BEHIND IT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOOK TO BE SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR THE DAY AND POTENTIALLY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE EASTERN
SECTION OF NEVADA. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN PORTION OF NEVADA
BECOMES A BIT MORE COMPLICATED AS MODEL AGREEMENT STRUGGLES WITH
AN OFF SHORE TROUGH MOVING IN. AS IT STANDS, LATEST RUNS SEE THE
TROUGH RISE NORTH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BARLEY CLIP THE
REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS THE
TROUGH CLIPS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SEE MORE THAN THAT. FROM HERE, AGREEMENT ONLY GETS MESSIER WITH
THE ONLY GENERAL CONSENSUS BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH
BRING ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES STAY A BIT MORE CONSISTENT AS WE SEE THE REGION
SLOWLY WARM UP OVER NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL STILL LOOK TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S,
BUT A RETURN TO THE 60S COULD HAPPEN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHERN NEVADA. OVERNIGHTS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS SLOWLY WARMING INTO THE
30S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
SUNNY TODAY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE ON SUNDAY, HOWEVER HIGH CLOUDS
RETURN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER MOST
OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV ON MONDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/94/94/96
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