099
FXUS65 KLKN 170713
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1213 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST OF EASTERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY
* WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO MOST
OF EASTERN NEVADA AGAIN TODAY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE
WESTWARD MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW SHOULD
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
EASTWARD. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS
11 PERCENT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES OF 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON THURSDAY, AUGUST 20TH, 2026:
TONOPAH - 97%
WEST WENDOVER - 97%
ELKO - 96%
WINNEMUCCA - 96%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 96%
CARLIN - 96%
EUREKA - 96%
WELLS - 96%
SPRING CREEK - 95%
ELY - 95%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF
EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. NBM GRIDS HAD NO
ACCOUNTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEASTERN NV MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN EITHER THE POPS OR WX GRIDS SO SST AND SERPISC WERE USED TO ADD
THUNDER TO GRIDS BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 06Z TUESDAY. MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM
MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO
AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DIRECT THUNDERSTORM
IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 11 PERCENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87
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