973
FXUS65 KLKN 270702 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1202 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS IN EASTERN NEVADA TODAY
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
* MUCH COOLER TODAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PASSING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA TODAY, WITH RECENT MODELS SHOWING THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM STAYING MORE TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION, WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH DRIER AIR.
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL STAY MORE TOWARDS
WESTERN NEVADA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S TO 60S WHILE EASTERN
NEVADA WILL BE IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO COME
DOWN, WITH ACCUMULATED VALUES BETWEEN 0.2-0.35 INCHES ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT, LANDER, AND NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY. SNOW
VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE TOIYABE RANGE IN NORTHWESTERN NYE AND LANDER COUNTIES, WITH
MOUNTAINS SEEING UP TO 6-8 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
BELOW 7000 FEET THIS MORNING, ALLOWING LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO
REACH ALONG HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS NEAR AUSTIN WITH UP TO 0.5
INCHES OF SNOW. EUREKA COUNTY AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTY ARE SEEING A
20% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 0.05 INCHES. EAST OF THAT, PRECIPITATION
VALUES DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM STALLS FROM GOING EAST DUE TO A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATING OVER CENTRAL CONUS. THIS LEAVES OUR
EASTERN ZONES WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP TO 15-20% THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA BETWEEN US-50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHIFT MORE ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY AND INTO ELKO COUNTY
TODAY, WITH A 45% PROBABILITY OF SEEING GREATER THAN 40-50 MPH
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN
NEVADA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S, WHILE EASTERN NEVADA BE IN THE
60S TO 70S.
THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY NORTHWESTERN
NYE COUNTY SEEING A 40-50% CHANCE OF UP TO 0.05-0.1 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AND UP TO 1 INCH OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINDS WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTS 30-40 MPH.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH 60S ACROSS THE REGION EXCEPT FOR
50S IN NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY, AND 70S IN ELKO COUNTY.
FRIDAY, MODELS HAVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING
NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
HIGHER WITH MUCH OF PROBABILITIES MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
SEEING CHANCES OF UP TO 50-70% OF UP TO 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN (HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.1-0.2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN
STATE BORDER). SNOW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH UP TO LESS THAN
AN INCH OVER TOIYABE RANGE AND SNOW LEVELS INCREASING AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S WITH 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEVADA.
SATURDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DOES REACH INTO
NEVADA. ACCUMULATIONS FOR RAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH UP TO 50-
60% OF SEEING UP TO 0.03 INCHES (0.2 INCHES ALONG JARBIDGE
WILDERNESS AREA). MOUNTAIN SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS RISE
BACK OVER 10,000 FEET AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHED NORTH OUT OF NEVADA AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG, GUSTY
WINDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM STALLING MORE OVER WESTERN NEVADA LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NEVADA,
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN NEVADA. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF NEVADA BY SATURDAY.
HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BY SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO NBM GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-25 KTS, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-
40 KTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE EASTERN TERMINALS.
MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER POSSIBLE FROM BLOWING DUST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES POSSIBLE OVER KWMC AND KBAM TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, GIVING VCSH AND -SHRA CONDITIONS OVER THE
TERMINALS. 10-20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE STRONG GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 45-50 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL ZONES TODAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER WESTERN NEVADA, LEAVING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY OVER WESTERN FIRE ZONES 424, 427, 437 AND PARTS OF 438.
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER ZONES 425, 426, EASTERN PARTS OF 427,
AND 470. ALL OTHER ZONES WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH, GUSTS 25-35
MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES AS
RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE 30 MPH, HOWEVER
NO RFW ISSUED AS FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN GREEN.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ031-033>035-039.
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