151
FXUS65 KLKN 201153
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
453 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 80S TODAY
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
* WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES HAVE BEEN SCATTERING OUT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL STRIKES IN PORTIONS OF
ELKO COUNTY THIS MORNING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP
CONSIDERABLY VERSUS TWENTY-FOUR HOURS AGO.
A DISTURBANCE WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY. CAPE VALUES REMAIN ROBUST AT 300-700J/KG WITH
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. STORM MOTIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN
RATHER FAST AT 20 TO 25KT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE RESIDENCE TIME
STORMS WILL HAVE OVERHEAD. UPGRADED TO RED FLAG WARNING AS A
RESULT; PLEASE SEE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
80S. LOOK FOR THE WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS COMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
40S AND 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MANY CHANGES WERE AGAIN MADE TO
THE NBM FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THESE INCLUDE MODIFYING THE POP/WX/SKY GRIDS SO THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEPICTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON PERIOD.
MODIFICATIONS WERE ALSO MADE TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS IN
THE NEAR TERM AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV-KELY AFTER 17Z
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS TO 45KT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ALONG WITH BRIEF +TSRA. BREEZY W-NW10-15G20-30KT
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
KWMC ASOS OBSERVATION CURRENTLY UNRELIABLE AT THIS TIME. KWMC TAF
IS AMD NOT SKED.
FIRE WEATHER
UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG THIS MORNING AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD. EVEN WITH LOW CLOUD BASES, THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THESE STORMS WILL MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH. THE
THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DISSIPATING LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, LEAVING DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 900 AM PDT TODAY THROUGH 500 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NVZ438-469-470
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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