629
FXUS65 KLKN 060701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEK
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CHANCES FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL SITUATED OVER NEVADA, WITH AN
INCREASE IN CAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC STAYING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SURFACE
LEVELS REMAINING WARM AND DRY, MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A MIX OF
WET/DRY BY THE EVENING. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, BUT RELATIVELY STAY
IN THE LOW 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT, HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 50 MPH.
TUESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS STARTING TO STRETCH OUT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FOUR CORNERS HIGH
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MUCH OF NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT WITH QUIETER
WEATHER, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE IN THE RANGES OF 150-200 J/KG,
WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD. BY THE EVENING,
STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE, LEAVING QUIET DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE MID 90S.
REST OF THE WEEK, WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EACH DAY AS HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS IN
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS OF NOW, THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS EACH
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF HEAT RELATED RISKS BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY LIGHT, HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REACHING UP TO 50 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
IS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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