667
FXUS65 KLKN 020854
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
154 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY
* CHANGEOVER FOR NORTHERN NV LOCATIONS FROM RAIN TO SNOW EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING
* STRONG WINDS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON
* FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 151 AM PDT THU APR 2 2026
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING NEVADA, CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH JUST SOME
TIMING UPDATES AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES RESIDES TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TODAY AFTER BRINGING BADLY NEEDED RAINFALL TO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND
STRONGER WAVE WHILE RESIDING STILL TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS
ALREADY DRAGGING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN NV WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHERN NV WILL ALSO TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ASSOCIATED 540 LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST ENCROACHES ON THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG
CRITERIA LEVEL WINDS FORCING A WIND ADVISORY ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN NV LOCATIONS.
THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING SENDING SNOW LEVELS WELL BELOW VALLEY
FLOORS. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA WILL CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
BY THURSDAY MID-MORNING. WHILE SNOW TOTALS FOR ELEVATED PEAKS AND
RIDGES REMAIN ROBUST (6-12 INCHES ON THURSDAY), VALLEY
ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN NV HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT WITH THE
LATEST MODEL RUN. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS A DUSTING TO
APPROXIMATELY HALF AN INCH OVER THE I-80 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN NV.
BETTER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1-2 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SR-225
BETWEEN WILDHORSE AND OWYHEE WHERE CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN ON
THURSDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SW CONUS ON FRIDAY AND WILL RESIDE
OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY THE NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER FOR NV SETS UP
AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE CA COAST. TIMING OF
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY RESIDE BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM WX GRIDS THROUGH THURSDAY AM AS NO
APPRECIABLE MODEL WAS INDICATING INSTABILITY PRESENT, NOT EVEN
NAM. THAT COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER TODAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SOMEWHAT SUBDUED LED TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LACK OF CONVECTION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. NBM90 WAS ALSO UTILIZED IN WIND AND WIND GUST
GRIDS THROUGH 06Z THU.
AVIATION
A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WITH VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. BY TOMORROW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40 TO 45 KT.
-SHRA AND/OR A MIX OF -SHRA/-SHSN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...86
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