163
FXUS65 KLKN 211955
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1255 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES THRU FRIDAY.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW MAY BE SEVERE ON THURSDAY.
* MUCH COOLER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND THRU MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
EVEN AS IT MEANDERS EAST. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN UTAH AND ARIZONA, HOWEVER
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO HOME IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND A FEW MAY
EVEN BECOME SEVERE, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COVERING WHITE PINE, SOUTHEASTERN ELKO AND NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NEVADA, AND SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW MIXES IN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP FROM
AROUND 10,000 FEET TO AROUND 7,000 FEET. VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS NOT EXPECTED. ROAD ACCUMULATION IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAIN CITY HIGHWAY NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER, WHICH
COULD SEE ABOUT HALF AN INCH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TOTAL
LIQUID EQUIVALENT ACCUMULATION THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IS BETWEEN A
THIRD AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN TOPS
REACHING ONE INCH.
THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, PUTTING NORTHEASTERN NEVADA UNDER A COLD AND DRY
NORTHEAST FLOW. FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST,
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW EXITS THE SOUTHWEST BUT THEY REMAIN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BEYOND FRIDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED TO BETTER REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION EVENT.
AVIATION
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AT KELY AND KTPH THIS AFTERNOON, AND
SHORT LIVED ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRING PERIODS OF
WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS NEVADA. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL RISE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HEART OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO ABOUT
7000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RE-
BUILD OVER THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR NEVADA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...98
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