477
FXUS65 KLKN 171004
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
304 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA
* LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE OREGON AND
IDAHO BORDERS, AS WELL AS THE UTAH BORDER, TODAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CUT OFF LOW REMAINS POISED OVER NORCAL
THIS MORNING BEFORE EJECTING EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN NEVADA BORDER
FRIDAY. THE POSITION OF THE LOW OVER NORCAL TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WHITE PINE COUNTY AND GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH, REACHING 45 MPH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THIS HAS PROMPTED
A RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. BREEZES
WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
MODEST THAN TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE BEING THE LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER, THAT BEING SAID,
LOCATIONS ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS WILL OBSERVE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR ALONG WITH ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONCURRENTLY, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ACROSS UTAH, THANKS TO A NORTHERLY PUSH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WILL SPILL INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEVADA AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH STATE LINE.
AS THE CUT OFF LOW EJECTS EAST ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER FRIDAY
MORNING, MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHED EAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA, PRODUCING DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS FOR THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOLER
AIR MASS MOVE EAST. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THRU THE WEEKEND
WITH A RETURN TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE VALLEYS BY SUNDAY. A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE PRESENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK PACIFIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NV BORDERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SIGNIFICANT GRID EDITS
REQUIRED WITHIN POP GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TODAY AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.
ELEVATED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTELRY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 30KT TO 35KT LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TERMINALS INCLUDING KTPH AND KELY. PATCHY
BLOWING DUST MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VIS, PRIMARILY AT KTPH
AND KELY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE BLDU IN
THE TAF. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF VCTS FOR KELY
AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY FOR FWZS 426 AND 427. ELEVATED SOUTH-SOPUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES OF 10-20%. ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS FWZ 425 WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH, THOUGH MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE ABOVE 15%, MITIGATING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE (10% TO 20%) FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNDER ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROFILES AND INSTABILITY ARE JUST ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHILE THE MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE
EAST WITHIN UTAH. CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE UTAH BORDER AS WELL.
CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EJECT TO THE
EAST FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 11AM TO 8PM PDT FOR NV-
FWZ426, NV-FWZ427.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page