356
FXUS65 KLKN 281956
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1256 PM PDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
* SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
IMPACTING NV IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BESIDES COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS, IMPACTS FROM
THIS PARTICULAR WAVE ARE MINIMAL. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE WAVES MEANDERS EAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO FILL INTO THE WESTERN CONUS PROMPTING A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE NORTH TO SOUTH TO THE EAST OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CREATE SOME FORCING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF NV. BETTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS PW VALUES IN THE 0.3-0.4 INCH RANGE ARE SUFFICIENT
FOR SHOWERS BUT NOT SO MUCH STORM ACTIVITY. CAPE VALUES (100-200
J/KG) AND LI (0 TO -2) ON THURSDAY GIVE EVIDENCE TO SAID
FORCING AND INSTABILITY BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
AT THAT TIME LEADS THIS FORECASTER TO BELIEVE NOTHING MORE THAN
SHOWERS AND SOME CONVECTIVE BUILD UPS ARE POSSIBLE. A 15% OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PROBABLY A BIT GENEROUS WITH THIS CURRENT
MODEL RUN.
BRIEF RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER LPC DEVELOPS AND BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OPEN THE REGION
(PARTICULARLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NV) UP TO STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN OVER
THE AREA. WHILE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE INTO MONDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WIND CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL NV
ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PM, MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF
MOISTURE (SEE DISCUSSION ABOVE). THUNDER WAS LEFT IN GRIDS AS
PROB (>15%) KEEPS STORMS AS ISOLATED BOTH AFTERNOONS. BETTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS FOR CENTRAL NV THIS
WEEKEND DUE TO INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
KEKO AND KELY ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
RESTRICTED FLIGHT RULES AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND STORMS THAT DO FORM.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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