075
FXUS65 KLKN 022021
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
121 PM PDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY THRU FRIDAY
* AFTERNOON BREEZES PRESENT EACH DAY THRU THE WEEK
* STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY COMBINE WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COVERAGE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS TIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD
OF AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROUGH, WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH AND SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH, WITH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA BEING SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN THOSE IN NORTHERN NEVADA. FULL TROUGH PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF COOLING IN FAR NORTHERN NEVADA FOR THURSDAY.
WINDS ALSO DROP BACK TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW 20 MPH. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF IT REACHES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH FORECAST AGAIN.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND A
BORDERLINE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM/CONVECTIVE BUILDUP IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SLIGHTLY FAVORED AT THIS TIME. HIGH MODEL VARIABILITY TAKES OVER
THE FORECAST TO START NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG DISAGREEMENT IN THE
PATH OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE CURRENT FAVORED SOLUTION IS FOR
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED
WINDS TOMORROW, AND IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
IMPACTS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR WHERE THE LOW WILL TRACK,
WHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED TO MODERATE FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND, BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO BASE NBM OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SUSTAINED WINDS AT KWMC/KBAM/KEKO WILL RANGE 15-20KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 23-25KTS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL FIRE WEATHER
ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXISTS ACROSS
FIRE ZONES 438 AND 469. HOWEVER, FUEL STATUS IS NOT QUITE YET AT
CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. THAT BEING SAID FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED FOR THOSE ZONES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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