574
FXUS65 KLKN 301043
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
343 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA
THIS WEEK.
* WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING TO A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* UNSEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH
NOTHING ON RADAR AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ON THE DRY AND
QUIET SIDE.
ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING SLOWLY INCREASING HEIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN EAST PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE RIDGE AXIS APPEARS TO BE AT ITS MAXIMUM ON FRIDAY, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA. IN FACT SOME LOCALES
MAY SEE NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AROUND 5-10
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS SHOW SLIGHT COOLING AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL
HELP WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER, LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND, BECOMING UNSEASONABLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO
CHANGES TO NBM GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OCCASIONAL
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE OVER THE KELY
AND KTPH TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
THERE ARE NO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS AT THIS TIME ACROSS ALL ZONES.
WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND SEEING UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES REACHING
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TREND WILL LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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