967
FXUS65 KLKN 220911
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
211 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR HISTORICALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TODAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ALLOWING A UPPER
TROUGH TO MOVE NORTH INTO UTAH TO EVENTUALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THIS TROUGH WILL
ACT TO SET UP ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION FOR NEVADA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IN NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
GREAT AS TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A 20% TO 60% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE SEEING HIGHER COVERAGE. ONCE AGAIN STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO
55 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. BY THURSDAY THE
TROUGH GETS SENT EAST, AND IN CONCERT WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING BACK
WEST, WILL ALLOW FOR THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE SW US
THE SOUTHERN FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTTING OF OUR
MONSOON MOISTURE SUPPLY AS THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SEE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DROP EACH DAY, EVENTUALLY ENDING BY
MONDAY. THE OTHER SIDE EFFECT OF THE DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL BE THE INCREASE OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE CUTS OF MOIST
MONSOONAL FLOW.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, AND KWMC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH, AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF
470 AND 425). THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE
WILL REDUCE EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SW US CUTS
OF MOISTURE FLOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87
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