758  
FXUS65 KLKN 090942  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
242 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 115 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
* RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEVADA  
 
* NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY  
 
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY  
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY  
 

 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 115 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
 
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:  
 
WEDNESDAY BRINGS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND  
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
FORECASTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG  
WARNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY A  
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH  
PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE  
DOME CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER AZ/NM. COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON  
HUMIDITY VALUES, THE RESULTING STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT SYSTEM  
REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE  
FORECAST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE 80S  
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
BEYOND WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE EVER  
PRESENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  
THIS WILL BE THE CASE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS  
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SW CONUS AND WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. RISING  
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA SIGNAL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS  
AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S AND EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS BY  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES HEATRISK AT A  
MODERATE LEVEL EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.  
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HOT TEMPERATURE WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS  
TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR DAYS 8  
AND 9 ARE DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN  
OVER THE SW CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME POTENTIAL  
REPRIEVE FROM HOT, DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THE LATE WEEK FORECAST IS  
FAIRLY BENIGN AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE  
SW CONUS SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HOT, DRY CONDITIONS  
INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. NBM OUTPUT CONTINUES TO  
UNDER SELL WHEN FORECASTING AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS (AS HAS BEEN THE  
CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS). TO CORRECT THIS A MODEL BLEND OF NBM AND  
NBM90 WAS USED TO NUDGE WIND VELOCITIES TO MORE ACCURATE VALUES  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS OF 20  
TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING  
HOURS.  
 

 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY  
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR  
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS  
ZONES 424 425 427 438 469 AND 470. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN  
EFFECT TODAY FROM 11 AM AND 8 PM PDT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY. WARMER SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MID  
90S TO LOW 100S.  
 
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY  
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 469 AND 470 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 10% ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
NEVADA. FOR NOW HOWEVER NO MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST AS  
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW.  
 

 
 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...99  
AVIATION...96  
FIRE WEATHER...96  
 
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