852  
FXUS65 KLKN 242128  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
228 PM PDT SUN MAY 24 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.  
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM  
BACK UP INTO THE 70S. EXPECT A COUPLE MORE CRISP, COLD NIGHTS TO  
START THE WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
REACH THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO MUCH IS GOING  
ON AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE LOOP IS DEPICTING SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER  
ELKO COUNTY, WITH SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.  
IT'S EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN  
THE 30S, THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE LOWS FALL INTO THE 20S.  
 
IT WILL BE A NICE MEMORIAL DAY TOMORROW AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE  
70S AND 80S. THERE MAY BE A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES BUT NOTHING OUT  
OF THE ORDINARY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO  
SOME CLOUD COVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE IN THE  
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE KEPT GHOST POPS IN  
FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE THEIR  
UPWARD TRAJECTORY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S IN  
SOME SPOTS. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWS  
IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE  
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US GOING NEXT WEEK BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PROJECTED  
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 95-99 PERCENTILE RANGE IN ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RECORD  
SETTING HEAT OVER THE REGION BY WEEKS END. AS A RESULT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP INTO THE  
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 90S  
OR EVEN THE LOW 100S BY FRIDAY OVER NORTHERN LANDER AND EUREKA  
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND EVEN  
LOW 60S OVER THE SAME PERIOD WHICH IS ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION  
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK BUT GENERALLY AGREES WITH DAYTIME  
HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE MID 90S BY WEEK'S END. SO SOME  
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TEMPERATURES RAMP UP INTO RECORD  
TERRITORY. ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY  
UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION THAT COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF  
ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A FEW LIGHTNING  
STRIKES AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLIDES UNDER THE RIDGE DURING  
THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATER IN THE WEEK. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE  
CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TS ACTIVITY.  
PREPARE FOR A PATTERN SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO  
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND RECEDES AND A LONG WAVE  
UPPER TROUGH EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND  
INCREASES A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER NEVADA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, THOUGH A NORTH BREEZE AT KTPH  
COULD STILL GUST OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND BRING QUIET  
WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEK. BIG STORY WILL BE INCREASING  
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS HEADING INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY, WITH POSSIBLE HIGH RECORDS SET. FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF  
THE WEEKEND, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME  
ISOLATED BUT DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBLE MOISTURE FOR THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF  
THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
86/97/97/86  
 
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