704
FXUS65 KLKN 110713
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1213 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
* GRADUAL COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FOR THE
WESTERN US AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RELAXES ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
SILVER STATE. THE SUMMERTIME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT WHICH
IS ALLOWING SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA. THIS WILL HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES
AND WITH THE MOISTURE RAIN CHANCES DUE TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT THIS WEEK.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ALONG THE US 50 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING, ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND
GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE LAYER AS WET STORMS MAY PRODUCE UP TO 0.10”
OF RAIN. STILL THERE WILL BE A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM,
WITH AN ELEVATED RISK FOR LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS.
WEDNESDAY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO
CALIFORNIA, MODELS SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP NEVADA OUT IN
MULTIPLE WAYS, FIRST DROPPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S TO LOW
90S. SECOND, IT WILL HELP CHANNEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTER STORM MODES. FINALLY, THE ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING AND DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THE ONLY
QUESTION THAT IS UNRESOLVED IS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE BEST
MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED OVER NV. CURRENT THINKING HAS ALL BUT FAR
NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY SEEING A CHANCE AT WETTING RAINS (≥0.10”) THIS
WEEK. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE SPLIT ON THIS SCENARIO
AS SOME SHOW ALL OF HUMBOLDT GETTING IN ON RAIN, WHEREAS SOME SHOW
MOST OF N NV MISSING OUT.
AFTER SATURDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO CANADA WHICH MAY
LOWER STORM CHANCES A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
THE UPPER PATTERN AFTER SUNDAY AS THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING THE
WESTERN US UNDER SOME FORM OF TROUGHING ALOFT, WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN SHIFT BACK WEST AFTER A FEW
DAYS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX
OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED MIX OF WET OR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NW NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF FU WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR N NV TERMINALS
DUE TO REGIONAL WILDFIRES WITH LOCAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY. FOR
KELY, KTPH, AND KENV INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON VCTS. HAZARDS INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45KT,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR DIRECT
TERMINAL IMPACTS FROM -TS ARE NEAR 10%. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT
OF THE WEST AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30KT
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN NEVADA
TUESDAY AS BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUST UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE, WILL COMBINE WITH LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES. FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA, TUESDAY WILL SEE A 20% TO 30% CHANCE FOR A MIX OF
WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY A UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL HELP BRING BETTER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, RAISING STORM CHANCES TO BETWEEN 50% AND 80% FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT 437 WHERE A 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS RESIDE.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
STORM EXITS TO THE NE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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