345
FXUS65 KLKN 070708
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1208 AM PDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEK
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWER TO ABOUT
A HALF INCH OR SO. FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST, THE AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN MORE MOIST WITH VALUES OF TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OR
HIGHER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OVER ELKO COUNTY. THIS IS
COINCIDENT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 400 TO 700 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OF A MIXED VARIETY AS STORM
MOTIONS OF 15 KNOTS OR SO WILL KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE
CORE OF STORMS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BY WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DRIER MASS CONTINUING ITS
EASTWARD PUSH INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
DROP TO A HALF-INCH OR LESS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, EAST TO THE BORDER WITH
UTAH (GREATER THAN A HALF INCH). CONSEQUENTLY, THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADING TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST
AND BUILDING DURING THE EARLY WEEKEND PERIOD. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS. ON
THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, BUT WARMING TO THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S ON FRIDAY, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL
WARMING ON SATURDAY. THIS IS LEADING TO MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK
IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH THE INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED OF PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING SUNDAY. THOUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE A
DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING, THE MAIN HEAT IMPACTS REMAIN. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTERNOON BREEZES TO 20 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THE POP, WEATHER, SKY AND WIND
GRIDS REQUIRED ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF HYBRID ISOLATED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR POP COVERAGE TODAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON UPPER RIDGE BUILD
LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON HEATRISK FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
ISOLD -TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO AND KENV. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY LIGHT, HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REACHING UP TO 45 KTS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR -TSRA WILL BE AT THE
KENV TERMINAL WITH OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED, MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
EASTWARD EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WARM WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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