411
FXUS65 KLKN 280855
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
155 AM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
* SHOWERS LIKELY IN EAST CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY
* WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BEGINNING ITS TREK THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
US THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK THE TROUGH
MOVING SW DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE BRINGING IT INLAND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, JUST AS IT EXITS NEVADA, THIS TROUGH WILL TAP INTO
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO A EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR UTAH, ARIZONA, AND POINTS EAST. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS A 20% TO 60% CHANCE FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING TROUGH
PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
THE BEST CHANCES AT SEEING RAIN HAS TRENDED SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF NE NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIGHT
WITH A TRACE TO 0.05” FOR NORTHERN NEVADA, WHILE CENTRAL NEVADA
MAY SEE A TRACE UP TO 0.35” FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF GREAT BASIN
NATIONAL PARK. TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND MODELS RETURN RIDGING
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US, BUT THERE IS STILL A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AS SOLUTIONS VARY
FROM NW TO SW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURE WISE, A COOLING TREND LASTS
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE MID 70S. WEDNESDAY
WILL START A NEW SLOW WARMING TREND, WITH THE RETURN OF UPPER
RIDGING AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
COOLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A 20% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, AND A 30% TO 60% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA MONDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESTORING QUIET AND DRY PATTERN OVER
NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR KWMC, KBAM,
KTPH, AND KEKO WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AT 5KT TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, INCLUDING
KELY, AND KENV WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT AT
5KT TO 15KT WITH GUST TO 25KT POSSIBLE. KWMC, KBAM, AND KEKO WILL
SEE A 20% CHANCE FOR LIGHT ISOLATED VCSH. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
TO 30% TO 60% FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NV TERMINALS WITH VCSH TO -SHRA FOR
KENV, AS WELL AS -TSRA POSSIBLE FOR KENV, AND KTPH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TRANSITS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS FOR WESTERN NEVADA, AND SW WINDS FOR
EASTERN NEVADA. WITH PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, THERE WILL BE A 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA, AND A 30% TO 60% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH A TRACE TO A 0.10” FOR VALLEYS, AND UP TO
0.35” OF RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES. AFTER
TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW US, BRINGING QUIET
CONDITIONS TO NV.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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