401
FXUS65 KLKN 152318
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
418 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN AND
EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY.
* A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH WARMING BY THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY WAS HAD BY MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MOIST AIR MASS PROVIDED AN EFFECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR WET STORMS. STORMS THAT WENT STRAIGHT OVER REMOTE
OBSERVATION PLATFORMS WERE ABLE TO DROP A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF
INCH OF RAIN IN AN HOUR, WITH POSSIBLY MORE HAD BY STORMS IN
LANDER AND ELKO COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN UTAH AND WYOMING. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO KEEP A
FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF THREE-QUARTERS TO NINE-TENTHS OF
AN INCH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.
IN ADDITION, SURFACE BASED CAPE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ROBUST
WITH VALUES OF 350 TO 800 J/KG. 700-500MB STORM MOTIONS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN SO, THERE COULD BE
LOCALIZED MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. HI- RES GUIDANCE BEGINS FIRING STORMS BY 11 AM TO THE
NOON TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR HIGHLY
LOCALIZED BREEZES AND GUSTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WANE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
MODEL SIMULATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW NOT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS
ACROSS UTAH, WYOMING, AND COLORADO. THE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A
RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN A
VIGILANT WATCH FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING DUE TO STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THE SAME AREA AND DROP RAIN. HIGHS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE IN THE 90S, THOUGH NO TRIPLE DIGITS ARE YET IN
THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXPAND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES ESPECIALLY UP TO THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS START TO BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
DISAGREEMENT EXISTS IN HOW AMPLIFIED IT REMAINS IN REGARDS TO WIND
IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. SHOULD IT REMAIN MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE
LESS LIKELY SCENARIO, STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE FAVORED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KTPH AND KWMC
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS. FOR TOMORROW, BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP AND
IMPACTS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS KEKO-ELY-KENV AFTER 19Z.
FIRE WEATHER
A FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THESE FEATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PUTTING DOWN WETTING RAINS AS STORM MOTIONS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH LOCALIZED, BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DRIER
AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FIRE ZONE 437 THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 MPH, BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THIS AREA.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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