841
FXUS65 KLKN 251848
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1148 AM PDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 5-10% THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING;
10-15% CHANCE TOMORROW
* HIGHS TODAY IN THE 80S, TRENDING COOLER MID-WEEK
* GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY
* GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY; STRONGEST ACROSS CENTRAL NV
* UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN NEVADA TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
PUSHES INTO NEVADA. WINDS OF UP TO 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
30-45 MPH OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE REST OF
NEVADA WILL HAVE GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS. INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS PWAT VALUES REACH UP TO 0.4-0.5 INCHES ARE RESULTING
IN SEEING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, YET CAPE
VALUES ARE COMING IN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN ONLY A
5-10% CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION (15-20% OVER JARBIDGE WILDERNESS
AREA ALONG THE STATE BORDER). PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE
LOWER LEVELS ARE DRY WITH LITTLE MIXING, SEEING MAINLY VIRGA
TODAY.
TOMORROW, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OVER NEVADA WITH
THE CENTRAL PORTION OVER THE STATE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON,
BRINGING IN COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS, INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH SPEEDS REACHING UP
TO 20-30 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45-50 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE 70S
HOWEVER BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S TO
60S. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES DROP TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO JUST AROUND 7500 FEET,
HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PASSES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS
TIME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING SLIGHT
INCREASE TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH PASSES AND SUMMITS ALONG
US-50 SEEING UP TO A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER RIDGING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL STALL THE LOW PRESSURE'S MOVEMENT, KEEPING IT CENTERED OVER
NEVADA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA BY
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY COOL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 60S, YET MOUNTAIN
SNOW EXPECTED TO BE TRENDING DOWN EACH DAY AS SNOW LEVELS STAY
ABOVE 7500 FEET. WINDS WILL ALSO BE TRENDING DOWN WITH BREEZY
WINDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY, BECOMING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER
THE STATE.
SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTH MERGING INTO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER CANADA. CHANCES FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW
BELOW 20% FOR ANY WETTING RAIN. BY THE AFTERNOON, QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS RETURN. WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REACH BACK INTO THE 80S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR
BUILDING DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OF ACTIVE WEATHER TUESDAY WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER NEVADA THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. CIG LEVELS WILL START TO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON AS MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT CAPE WILL DEVELOP CLOUD BUILDUP AROUND
FL100-FL120. 5-10% OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE
STATE. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
REACH UP TO 45 MPH. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED
OVER KWMC TODAY WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 30-35 KTS. GUSTY WINDS
MAY RESULT IN BLOWING DUST WHICH COULD LOWER VIS BELOW 6SM.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 20-30 ACROSS
MOST ZONES TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW NEVADA SEEING GUSTS UP
TO 35-45 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER ZONE 437 AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER NEVADA. RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG
WINDS AND LOW RH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 437 TODAY UNTIL 11 PM.
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
NEVADA GIVING A 5-10% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TOMORROW, STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS
CENTRAL NEVADA AS THE STORM FRONT MOVES OVER NEVADA RESULTING IN
STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH OVER ZONES 425 AND 426.
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THOSE ZONES AS RH VALUES DROP BELOW
15%, HOWEVER FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12PM PDT MONDAY THROUGH 11PM PDT MONDAY FOR
NVZ437.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY NVZ035-041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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