955
FXUS65 KLKN 290958
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
258 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP
TODAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE EVENING
* ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE COOLING WITH READINGS BELOW TO NEAR
NORMAL
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE NOTED ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING. RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING. THE CELLS ARE
MOVING QUICKLY AT ABOUT 35 TO 45 MPH. REMOTE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
ARE SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION WITH READINGS AT OR BELOW A TENTH
OF AN INCH AT SITES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY.
FOR TODAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT
THIS TIME. MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST NYE,
THROUGH WHITE PINE AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTIES WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.80 UP TO ABOUT AN INCH. FURTHER WEST AT OTHER
LOCATIONS, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT TWO-THIRDS TO THREE-
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 350-800J/KG. LIFTED INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2C TO -4C SEEN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. IN ADDITION, 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
COMING IN FAIRLY STRONG AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 1000K/KG, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. AGAIN, THERE IS
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS IF IT FALLS
ON RECENTLY BURNED LOCATIONS, THUS LEADING TO DEBRIS FLOWS AND
FLASH FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND STORMS LATER
TODAY COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS REACHING HALF AN
INCH OR MORE FOR A TWO-DAY TOTAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PUSH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY EAST TOMORROW KEEPING RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STATE OVER THE
NEVADA AND UTAH BORDERS. DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH TO THE
EAST, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE STORM TRACK
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SEASONALLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA TODAY AS WELL.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WX, POP GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO
HIGHLIGHT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
LEFTOVER -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE KENV
TERMINAL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE RE-
DEVELOPING LATER ON TODAY WITH VCTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KWMC AND KBAM. MAIN THREATS WILL BE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. GENERAL BREEZINESS WILL
AFFECT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON SW-W10-15G25-30KT.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS, ESPECIALLY OVER RECENTLY BURNED AREAS,
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM PASSING
STORMS UP TO 50-70 MPH. BY THE EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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