826
FXUS65 KLKN 271958
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1258 PM PDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEMS.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES REACHING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST KEEPS A NEAR
ZONAL FLOW OVER NEVADA WITH QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEMS STAYING TO
THE NORTH. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS FROM THE WEST EXPECTED TO REACH
UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE WINDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 10-15
MPH, GUSTS 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS AT NEAR NORMAL IN THE 20S.
BY LATE THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE, SHIFTING THE ZONAL FLOW INTO A NORTHEAST FLOW. THIS
FLOW WILL HAVE WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA WHICH
WILL CAUSE SATURATION TO OCCUR AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS
THE NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO GIVE WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING WITH
INCREASE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND REACHING INTO THE
VALLEYS AS PWAT AMOUNTS INCREASES UP TO 0.5 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS STAYING JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 50S.
SATURDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO
BRING A NORTHEAST FLOW OVER NEVADA AND BEGIN TO PUSH EAST, WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH IN THE
PACIFIC WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. CURRENT MODELS HAS THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SECOND UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND CONVERGE
INTO THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING SOME OF THAT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEVADA THAT WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT
FROM BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD OUT OF NEVADA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S, THEN DROP TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA REACHING ONLY IN THE 40S. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY RISE BACK UP BUT STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE LOW 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO THE NORTHWESTERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING SOUTH INTO NEVADA WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS
TO A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONVERGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
REGARDS TO DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY CONDITIONS AT ALL CENTRAL TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS UP TO
10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR ALL
ZONES. BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH,
GUSTS 25-30 MPH AS ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ABOVE NEVADA FROM A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS MIN RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH DUE WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
PUSH SOUTH INTO NEVADA THAT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND CONVERGE WITH THE OTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES HIGHER.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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