129  
FXUS65 KLKN 252117  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
217 PM PDT MON MAR 25 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD VALLEY RAIN INTO  
HUMBOLDT COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE  
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, DROPPING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO  
MOST VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL THEN  
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN  
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY DUE TO THE FLOW UNDER  
AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL  
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN OR. THIS LOW WILL MOVE VERY  
SLOWLY IN THE COMING DAYS, TO REMAIN OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST  
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER,  
WITH QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CA AND  
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EVEN AS  
THE LOW ITSELF REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST.  
 
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, THOUGH THEY  
DID CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT VALLEY RAIN TO MOVE  
INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING, WITH A SLOW EASTERLY  
PUSH ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN ELKO  
COUNTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH INTO  
LANDER COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY SLOW EASTERLY PROGRESSION  
CONTINUES.  
 
STRONG JET ENERGY SPINNING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD  
THROUGH CENTRAL NV AND UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NV ON  
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY,  
BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO BE HELD JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR  
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE  
CWA WILL BE UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER  
MUCH OF CENTRAL NV BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE  
TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ON  
WEDNESDAY, ADDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG  
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY TO THE ALREADY  
HIGHLIGHTED LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.  
 
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NV RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.  
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO ALL VALLEY AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS  
SEEING BETWEEN A DUSTING AND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY  
MORNING. COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A DROP IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY OF AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS  
GENERALLY LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY. LIGHT  
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE RUBY  
MOUNTAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER  
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SO FOR NOW NO  
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.  
 
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ARE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL  
NV WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LITTLE LIGHTING ACROSS WEST-  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, AND  
THEN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  
 
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A COOL/MOIST  
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SHEAR AXIS  
PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT  
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY NORTHEASTERN  
NEVADA FROM EASTERN HUMBOLDT THROUGHOUT ELKO INTO NORTHERN  
LANDER/EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK  
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND DIMINISH FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MAINLY IN THE  
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF THE  
RUBIES AND EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY IN THE SNAKE RANGE AND GREAT  
BASIN NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW BRIEFLY  
DRIER AND WARMER TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOWER  
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL BLENDS ARE  
QUICK TO FLATTEN RIDGE AND BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEVADA  
TODAY ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL  
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THIN BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME  
INTERVALS OF SCT TO BKN MID DECKS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO  
RISE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KWMC, KELY AND KTPH. BREEZIER  
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30  
KTS AT KELY AND KTPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VCSH  
WAS INCLUDED AT KWMC TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE  
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
96/95/95  
 
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