055
FXUS65 KLKN 301904
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1204 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND ACROSS EASTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* A SHORT WEATHER BREAK POSSIBLE MID-WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MORE ROUNDS
OF ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR A MORE CALM WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST, WHILE
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STAYS NORTH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAKE IT'S
WAY TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, SHIFTING THE PATTERNS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AS PWATS STAY BELOW 0.4 INCHES WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTERNOON BREEZES UP TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
THE 70S TO 80S.
BY THE WEEKEND, AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
MODELS AGREEING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, STRENGTHENS,
AND SITUATES OVER OREGON AND WASHINGTON. AT THE SAME TIME, A
PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG MEXICO'S COASTLINE
AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US, BRINGING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO NEVADA. AS FOR THE TIMING AND POSITION, BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT
WITH LITTLE DEVIATIONS AMONG THEM. BOTH CONSISTENTLY AGREE ON THE
MOISTURE SURGE AND TIMING, BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENTIATE ON THE
POSITION. GFS PUSHES TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHILE ECWMF
EXTENDS A LITTLE FURTHER OUTWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THEN
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
IS ALSO SHOWING SOME DEVIATIONS WITHIN THE MODELS WITH GFS
SHOWING THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PUSHES EAST AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN, WHILE ECMWF PUSHES FURTHER OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND
MERGES WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE CLOSELY
LOOKED AT AS WE APPROACH INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY AND
EASTERN NEVADA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BRIEF
WEATHER BREAK OVER THE MID-WEEK WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES TRENDS
AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A TROPICAL SYSTEM SURGE INTO NEVADA. NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE
MADE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. VCTS AT KELY AND KENV THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ANY TS THAT DOES OCCUR MAY CREATE MOMENTARY MVFR/IFR
CONDTIONS OVER TERMINALS. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST
FOR KELY WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 20KTS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AT KTPH WILL GUST TO NEAR 22KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO FWZ425 AND THE VERY SOUTHERN PORTION OF FWZ470. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS THAT WILL
ENHANCE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY
OVER RECENT BURN SCARS WHERE DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE. ON MONDAY
STORM ACTIVITY OVER EASTERN NV WILL FOCUS ON FWZ 425/438/469/470.
THIS WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF FWZ 426/427.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE THE SAME AS THOSE FOR SUNDAY. ON TUESDAY
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW OVER FWZ437 COMBINED WITH LOWER RH VALUES
WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN NORTHWEST NV.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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