436
FXUS65 KLKN 052009
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
109 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK STORM SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN NEVADA.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA RETURNS TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
* POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING COOLER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AS THE RIDGING AND HPC PATTERN OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BREAKS DOWN THIS WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL RIDE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT. BOUNDARY FORCING AND PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME LOW PROBABILITY
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
BUT THE MOISTURE PROFILE OVER THE AREA DOESN'T OFFER MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SUPPORT. PW VALUES HOVERING AROUND HALF AN INCH COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED BASES WILL LEAD TO DRY CONVECTION IF STORMS DO
INITIATE. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SHORT-LIVED POST FRONTAL REGIME ON
TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY RANGING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
BEYOND FRIDAY THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION GETS SQUEEZED EASTWARD
AS A LARGE LONGWAVE ULT PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION BY THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: VERY LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY EVENING. THAT
BEING SAID NBM REPRESENTED EVEN LOW CHANCES VERY POORLY SO A
COMBINATION OF SST AND SERPISC WAS USED TO INCREASE POPS ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LOW CHANCE ISOT ACROSS NORTHERN NV FROM 22Z TO 04Z
TONIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEK. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. LOW CHANCES FOR VCTS EXISTS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AT KEKO, KELY, AND KWMC. MAIN THREAT WITH TS WILL BE
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE WESTERLY
FLOW MONDAY EVENING WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MAKING PROGRESS ON ITS
TRANSIT THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. THIS TROUGH THOUGH WEAK, AND
HAVING MEAGER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, WILL GENERATE A LOW 10% TO
20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR ZONES 438, 469, AND 470. HAZARDS FROM STORMS
SHOULD THEY FORM WILL BE STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40KT,
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS TROUGH
WILL SHIFT WAST TUESDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...99
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