856
FXUS65 KLKN 210923
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
223 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR MONSOON STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
* COOLING TREND STARTS TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER MOVES NORTH.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
A RETURN OF MONSOON FLOW OVER NEVADA. THIS TROUGH WHILE HAVING NO
IMPACT ON NEVADA, WILL SERVE TO PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST WHILE
REDIRECTING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTH BRINGING CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTING AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, GIVING NEVADA
A DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDER EACH DAY, EVEN AS
FORECASTS SHOW A HIGH PREFERENCE FOR WET STORM MODES OVERALL.
MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY AND WORK ITS WAY BACK
WEST WEDNESDAY EVENING, SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW BACK TO A WSW
DIRECTION, AND CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FLOW BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL A BEGIN A COOLING TREND FRIDAY AS THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
COOL BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE NEW WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A DAILY
20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION AFTER
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW EITHER CONTINUED MONSOON FLOW OR A RETURN
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5KT
TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. VCTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MONSOON FLOW WILL
BRING A 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
FRIDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO THE REGION, THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
HELP WITH COOLING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, AND BRING A DAILY 20% TO
50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAZARD FROM STORMS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH,
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. AS IT MAY
TAKE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FULLY UP NORTH, THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS THERE WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES,
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND SOME DRY THUNDER INITIALLY. IF TIMING
IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST FOR THE MOISTURE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 437 AND POSSIBLY 424. HOWEVER WHEN MOISTURE
FULL ARRIVES DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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