072
FXUS65 KLKN 120711
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1211 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
* GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS FINALLY STARTED IT
EASTWARD SLIDE AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NW INTO CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE
SILVER STATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH NEVADA. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP NEVADA OUT
IN MULTIPLE WAYS, FIRST DROPPING TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW 80S TO
LOW 90S. SECOND, IT WILL HELP CHANNEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTER STORM MODES. FINALLY, THE ADDED
DYNAMIC COOLING AND DYNAMIC LIFT WILL ALSO HELP TO INCREASE
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE RESULT WILL BE A 30% TO 80%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, BUT CHANCES HAVE RISEN TO 40% TO 60% OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING BETTER
CHANCES FOR ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA TO SEE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK.
THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT NW HUMBOLDT COUNTY GETS MISSED,
BUT MODEL CONSENSUS QPF NOW SHOWS UP TO 0.25” OF RAINFALL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ARES OF CENTRAL NV COULD RECEIVE UP TO
0.75” OR MORE.
AFTER SATURDAY THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE INTO CANADA WHICH
MAY LOWER STORM CHANCES A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT STORM CHANCES
WILL AVERAGE 20% TO 40%. NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MODELS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN, AND
TODAY’S SOLUTIONS ARE NO DIFFERENT. GFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN TRADING SOLUTIONS OF EITHER ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN US, OR THE RETURN OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE FOUR CORNERS OR GREAT BASIN. THE ONE NEW AGREEMENT
FOR THE MOST RECENT RUNS IS KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PARTICULAR PLACEMENT OF EITHER RIDGE OR TROUGH
WILL DICTATE HOW HIGH OR LOW STORM AND SHOWER CHANCES BECOME FOR
THE LONGER TERM. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OVER A LOW 20% TO 30% CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FIR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET
WITH A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIX OF WET
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING TO COVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FU WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR N NV TERMINALS IN THE
MORNINGS DUE TO REGIONAL WILDFIRES WITH LOCAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
FOR KELY, KTPH, AND KENV INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AFTERNOON VCTS.
FIRE WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL HELP BRING BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE, RAISING STORM
CHANCES TO BETWEEN 40% AND 80% FOR ALL ZONES. STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL STORM
EXITS TO THE NE. BIGGEST IMPACTS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOWS ESPECIALLY FOR THE WARD FIRE SCAR IN FWZ
425 AND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NEW PASS FIRE IN FWZ 424.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...84
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