701
FXUS65 KLKN 160717
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1217 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY
* WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NEVADA TODAY, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS
WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (5-15%) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND EASTERN NYE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN
FLOODING OF RECENT BURN SCARS. THE SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR ON MONDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPE VALUES (250-300 J/KG) OVER CENTRAL NV.
THE MOISTURE PROFILE (0.60-0.80 INCHES) INDICATES A MIX OF MORE
WET THAN DRY STORM ACTIVITY. BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL PROGRESSIVE RETROGRADE
WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THE FLOW SHOULD SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
EASTWARD. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRES IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS
12 PERCENT. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES
FRIDAY. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 90
DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA ON THURSDAY, AUGUST 20TH, 2026:
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 96%
ELKO - 95%
WINNEMUCCA - 95%
WEST WENDOVER - 95%
CARLIN - 95%
TONOPAH - 90%
WELLS - 90%
SPRING CREEK - 85%
EUREKA - 85%
ELY - 70%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A WARMING TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY
MONDAY. POPS WERE INCREASED AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ADDED
TO WX GRIDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY AS SATELLITE & RADAR IMAGERY
DEPICTED STORMS INITIATING AND STRENGTHENING OVER ELKO COUNTY. NBM
GRIDS HAD NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO,
KELY, AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DIRECT
THUNDERSTORM IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MONDAY DUE TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87
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