183
FXUS65 KLKN 282334
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
334 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
101 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH SUNDAY
* PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
* COLDER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MID-WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 332 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2026
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING AN UPTICK IN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. AS A RESULT, THE WEATHER GRIDS
FOR THE NEAR TERM HAS BEEN UPDATED TO EXPAND COVERAGE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF HUMBOLDT AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTIES. ALL TEXT PRODUCTS AND GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP THIS AFTERNOON IS
SHOWING AN UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO.
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BEING OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
AT THIS TIME. VIRGA IS NOTED THOUGH ISOLATED AND VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RECORDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY
AT THIS TIME. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE SCENE FROM THE
WEST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH DURING
THE MORNING BUT WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BUT GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED TO
20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH
READINGS IN THE 60S. A FEW AFTERNOON BREEZES TO 20 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOOK FOR AN EXPANSION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S.
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN WHILE
CONTINUING ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION EASTWARD, MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR A LOWERING OF
HEIGHTS WITH CORRESPONDING COOLING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN HIGH DURING THE DAY SO VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE MAINLY
RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE UPPER LOW IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIME. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S, THOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER LOCALES COULD SEE THE TEENS IF
SKIES CLEAR FASTER THAN FORECAST.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A TRANSITORY
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS, THEN HEADS EAST, OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. LOOK FOR QUIET WEATHER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN
THE 50S AND 60S BUT COOLING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S BOTH NIGHTS. NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO PERIODS
OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING MUCH COOLER WEATHER
MONDAY. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE HOLDS WITH A COLDER STORM SYSTEM
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NO DEVIATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NBM AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VCSH AND/OR A SPRINKLE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
KWMC-KBAM-KEKO-KENV BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LIMIT VSBY/CIGS
TO BELOW VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH A FEW BREEZES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
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