817
FXUS65 KLKN 190701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY
* COOLING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE IN THE SHORT TERM AS A DRY PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
ALL MODELS ARE DEPICTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING
TO THE SOUTH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES TO JUST OFF THE COAST
OF WESTERN CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY. LIGHT VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
A SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION IS IN STORE FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM AS IT
TRIES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. THE ESTIMATED THREE DAY FORECAST AMOUNTS FOR
PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL ARE COMING IN AROUND ONE-HALF TO TWO-
THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE VALLEYS WITH ONE TO FOUR INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH OF THESE DAYS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE SYSTEM MAY BE EXITING EAST BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
SHORT TERM GRIDS AS NBM IS HANDLING THE FORECAST WELL. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH TODAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE MODERATE
WITH RESPECT TO THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE CHANCES OF A COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
RESULTING IN PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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