114  
FXUS65 KLKN 112013  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
1213 PM PST TUE FEB 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. LOW  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN  
PERIODS OF SNOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEVADA  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT WILL BE  
AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. MINIMUM APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.  
THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT THE HOMELESS AND PEOPLE  
WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING. FROSTBITE MAY OCCUR IF UNPROTECTED SKIN  
IS EXPOSED TO THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR A  
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR  
MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 12 AM PST TONIGHT UNTIL  
9 AM PST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF MINIMUM  
TEMPERATURES OF 3 DEGREES OR LOWER FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 12TH, 2025:  
 
EUREKA - 96%  
ELY - 95%  
JACKPOT - 90%  
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 80%  
WINNEMUCCA - 75%  
WELLS - 70%  
SPRING CREEK - 60%  
OWYHEE - 60%  
ELKO - 55%  
CARLIN - 50%  
 
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SILVER STATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NEVADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A STORM  
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE SERVICE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM  
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY  
THURSDAY ALL EYES ARE ON THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST AS  
IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING  
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN, AND ARE STILL  
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES, SNOW  
LEVELS, FORECAST HEIGHTS, AND FRONTAL DEFORMATION AND LIFT HAVE  
BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE RUN TO RUN, WITH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RUNS  
COLDER/MORE SNOWY THAN THE DAYTIME RUNS. THE ONLY CONSISTENT  
ELEMENT THAT HAS SHOWN HIGH CONFIDENCE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE  
THIS SYSTEM WILL DELIVER FOR BOTH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV AS  
FORECAST QPF HAS BEEN AVERAGING 0.15” TO 0.40” FOR THE VALLEYS,  
0.30” TO 0.60” FOR THE PASSES AND SUMMITS, OF WHICH THE HIGHER  
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE US-50 CORRIDOR. MOUNTAINS COULD  
SEE FROM 0.8” TO UP 1.60” WITH THE RUBY/E HUMBOLDT RANGE SEEING  
THE HIGHEST TOTALS. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6500 FEET HAVE BEEN MORE  
CONSISTENT WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING 6” TO 20” OF NEW SNOW AND  
HIGHER ELEVATION PASSES ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA COULD SEE UP TO 3”  
TO 8” OF SNOW, NORTHERN NEVADA PASSES AND SUMMITS WILL BE SLIGHTLY  
LESS AT 2” TO 6” OF SNOWFALL. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BE IF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN FALL BELOW 6500 FEET. THIS  
WINTER HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO GET QPF AND COLD AIR INTO THE  
VALLEYS AT THE SAME TIME, AND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND  
GIVEN ALL THE MIXED MESSAGES IN THE MODELS. THE OVERALL SYSTEM  
TRACK ALSO DOES NOT FAVOR COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO NEVADA, MEANING  
ANY COLD AIR AND THUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE  
DYNAMICALLY CREATED FRONTOGENETICALLY THROUGH CONVECTION, HOWEVER  
TIMING WILL BE KEY, AS WHILE MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS OCCURRING BUT  
EVERY RUN HAS A DIFFERENT AREA IMPACTED. ALL OF THIS IS LEADING  
TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK FOR THE  
VALLEYS AS CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE A TRACE TO 2” WILL BE POSSIBLE  
FOR THE VALLEYS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM RIDGING WILL  
MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY BRINGING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES,  
BUT AS THIS RIDGE QUICK SLIDES EAST MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS BEEN  
WEEK AT BEST FALLS APART MONDAY AS THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER QUICK  
HITTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NV, WHILE THE GFS FAVORS  
CONTINUED RIDGING AND QUIET CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY  
WILL BE BRISK WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR ZERO TO THE TEENS, WITH HIGHS  
ONLY WARMING TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS WITH  
MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT  
ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES WITH  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM PST  
WEDNESDAY HUMBOLDT...NORTHERN ELKO...RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST  
HUMBOLDT RANGE IN ELKO...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO...SOUTHEASTERN  
ELKO...SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA...SOUTHWEST ELKO...  
WHITE PINE.  
 
 
 
 
 
87/98/98  
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