006
FXUS65 KLKN 190907
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
207 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN NORTHEAST
ELKO COUNTY TODAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY
AND TOMORROW
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF ELKO COUNTY. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED UNDER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY AND
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.10 INCHES OR LESS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY
SPEAKING, WEATHER WILL BE FAIR THRU THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM EACH DAY INTO MONDAY, RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S.
A MODEST PACIFIC LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THRU SOUTHERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE
PROSPECT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE AROUND 0.10
INCHES BUT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SPREAD NORTH INTO ELKO COUNTY BY
TUESDAY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BECOME FAIR MID WEEK UNDER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A DEEP PACIFIC TROF
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. AN INCREASE
IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE ENCROACHING TROF. INCREASING PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROF. THIS IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN THE PROSPECT OF RAINFALL BECOMES
HIGHER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE FOR
THE UPPER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK. OPTED FOR A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODEL
GUIDANCE AND NBM TO PRODUCE A MORE REALISTIC POP AND WEATHER
FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COLDER IN THE TYPICAL COLDER VALLEYS THRU THE WEEKEND
GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ENHANCED RADIATIVE COOLING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THRU SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF ZONE 470 AND WITHIN THE
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS IN ZONE 469. OTHERWISE WEATHER WILL BE
GENERALLY FAIR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO WARM EACH DAY INTO MONDAY.
A MODEST PACIFIC LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THRU SOUTHERN
NEVADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN THE
PROSPECT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SPREAD NORTH INTO ZONES 469 AND 470 BY
TUESDAY, THOUGH EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
WEATHER WILL AGAIN BECOME FAIR MID WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...92
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