560
FXUS65 KLKN 171003
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
203 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1237 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
* STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY.
* A SERIES OF WINTER STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THRU THE WEEK.
* WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1251 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WERE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROFS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS, AND
SNOW ACROSS THE STATE THRU FRIDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE PRESENT TODAY WITH GUSTS 35 MPH TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THRU
THIS EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THRU
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ASIDE FOR
SOUTHEAST ELKO COUNTY, INCLUDING WEST WENDOVER. A WINTER STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE. A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CURRENT ROUND OF SNOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF NEVADA. THAT SAID, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST, EXITING
TO THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
BE THE STRONGEST WAVE, AND COLDER THAN THE FIRST. HOWEVER, SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN AND/OR RAIN SNOW MIX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS WITH SNOW LEVELS FORECAST
TO RESIDE BETWEEN 4000 FEET AND 4500 FEET. PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL RETURN TO ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THRU THE WEEK
AS THE COLDER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS SECOND WAVE HAS TRENDED A BIT
SOUTH OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH CENTRAL NEVADA LOOKING TO
PICK UP THE MOST ACCUMULATION. ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT
STRENGTHENS ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AS IT
PROGRESSES THRU NEVADA. WHITE PINE COUNTY CAN EXPECT THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST. NORTHERN NEVADA VALLEYS
ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.10” AND 0.50” OF WATER, OF THAT
1” TO 5” OF SNOWFALL. NORTHERN NEVADA PASSES ARE FORECAST TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 2” TO 6” OF SNOW, WHILE MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT UP TO
12” TO 24” OF SNOW. CENTRAL NEVADA VALLEYS ARE FORECAST TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.20” TO 0.60” OF WATER OF WHICH 2” TO 6” OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO FALL, US-50 PASSES ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE BETWEEN
3” AND 8” OF SNOW WITH CENTRAL NEVADA MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO SEE
UP TO 12” TO 24” OF NEW SNOW.
AFTER ANOTHER BRIEF LULL A THIRD UPPER TROF LOOKS TO PASS THRU
NEVADA THURSDAY EVENING THRU FRIDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST SHOW
THIS SYSTEM TO BE DRIER, WITH OVERALL QPF RANGING BETWEEN 0.05”
AND 0.35”. GOOD NEWS IS THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1” TO 3” FOR THE VALLEYS AND 2” TO 6” FOR THE PASSES
AND RANGE SUMMITS. FOR NEXT WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SERVE
TO QUIET THINGS DOWN, BUT MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A FOURTH
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN NEXT MONDAY, BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES TREND MUCH COLDER OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. BOTH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARMING
TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR LOW ELEVATION RAIN, BELOW 4000 TO
4500 FEET THIS AFTERNOON, AND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW WILL BE
THE PREVAILING PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
VALLEYS OF 1” TO 5”, PASSES 2” TO 8”, AND MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A THIRD SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA THRU THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RESIDE AROUND 25KT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM
KTPH AND KELY WHERE GUSTS AROUND 35KT ARE FORECAST. A BRIEF LULL
IN SNOW SHOWERS PRESENT THIS MORNING, THOUGH -SHSN WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOW (25%) PROBABILITY OF A
SHOWER IMPACTING ANY TERMINALS. NEXT PUSH OF SNOW AND LOW
ELEVATION (SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 4000 AND 4500 FEET) RAIN MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST- NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITAION TYPE
TRENDING TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. IMPACTS BEGIN AT KWMC
AROUND 21Z, REACHING KELY AROUND 07Z. COMBINATIONS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOW CEILINGS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR AND MVFR.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
NVZ030-031-035>041.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page