413
FXUS65 KLKN 202150
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
150 PM PST WED NOV 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
PROLONGED STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IMPACTS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY ALONG
WITH FALLING SNOW LEVELS AND SOME VALLEY SNOW, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
CONTINUED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FROM PERSISTENT MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE IN WATER EQUIVALENT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
REMAIN IN WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND FAR NORTHERN NEVADA,
GENERALLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE. SO MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WILL BE JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN/SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH (I.E. US-50 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN
DRY). SNOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE REACHING AROUND 8500 FEET
IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RANGING FROM 6000-7000
FEET IN FOR EASTERN NEVADA. SOUTH WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS THURSDAY REACHING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER DENSE CLOUD COVER IN SOME PLACES FALLING ONLY INTO
THE 20S AND LOWER 30S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
REACHING INTO THE MID 50S I-80 AND POINTS SOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE SERVICE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START AT AROUND 7,500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE DROPPING TO
THE VALLEY FLOOR SATURDAY EVENING. THE MOST PROBLEMATIC TRAVEL
AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR FROM OASIS TO DEETH
AND ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF AUSTIN DUE TO
THE EXPECTATION OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW OVER PEQUOP PASS
AND AUSTIN PASS. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON:
AUSTIN - 89%
EUREKA - 81%
WELLS - 45%
OWYHEE - 45%
SPRING CREEK - 30%
JACKPOT - 30%
ELY - 25%
ELKO - 20%
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY SWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY, RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION. YET
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY
OF MORE PRECIPITATION. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION
DENSE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY AS A POTENT
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. A 20%
CHANCE OR LESS OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AT KWMC. MOST
PRECIPITAION OBSERVED ON WEATHER RADAR IS NOT REACHING VALLEY
FLOORS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE CIG OR VIS TO MVFR LEVELS.
LESSER CHANCES EXIST AT KBAM AND KEKO WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS WELL ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING AT KTPH AND
KELY. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS REACHING
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KELY AND KTPH. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
93/87/93
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