435
FXUS65 KLKN 150707
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1207 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
* QUIETER WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE
WEEKEND
* WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS STORM ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH
EXIT ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE,
BUT WEAK STORM POTENTIAL DOES PERSIST IN FAR EASTERN NEVADA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH A SLOW WARMING
TREND DUE TO DEVELOPING RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEEK REMAINS VARIABLE, WITH DISAGREEMENT FOCUSING ON THE
TIMING OF A WEST COAST TROUGH IMPACT. THE SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD
MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
FASTER SOLUTION WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STORM
POTENTIAL AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WEAKENING
STORMS BY SATURDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE PAST
WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE 18-25 KTS AT KELY, KTPH, KWMC, AND KBAM.
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL WIND
DOWN THIS WEEKEND WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427. LINGERING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP STORM ACTIVITY MORE WET THAN DRY. QUIETER
WEATHER SETS UP OVER THE AREA BEYOND SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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