556  
FXUS65 KLKN 202141  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
241 PM PDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING  
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD FROST AND NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AREAS OF FOG WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINFALL ON  
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WILL FEATURE  
PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE  
60S AND 70S. A WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF  
LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH WILL  
KEEP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/HIGHER- ELEVATION MOUNTAIN  
SNOW SHOWERS GOING MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY THROUGH  
EARLY EVENING (EVEN HAD A FEW CG STRIKES AROUND LAMOILLE CANYON  
IN THE RUBY MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM). OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER  
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK UP THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY  
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH  
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FROST WITH NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF  
HUMBOLDT, NORTHERN LANDER/EUREKA AND ELKO COUNTIES WHERE HEAVIER  
RAIN FELL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. FROST AND PATCHY FOG COULD  
REDEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
WEAK RIDGING WILL PROVIDE PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR SATURDAY  
AND SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S  
AND 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAKER WEATHER SYSTEM  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN  
HUMBOLDT COUNTY BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE REGION LATER  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM  
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL  
DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH A BRIEF SPAT OF  
RAIN/SNOW MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A FLAT RIDGE TUESDAY THEN QUASI-  
ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY. EVEN  
MONDAY'S SYSTEM HAS WIDESPREAD POPS IN THE 25-50% RANGE BUT LOW  
QPF TOTALS. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,  
BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW TO BELOW AVERAGE WITH SERIOUS  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS' TIMING, ORIENTATION, AND MOISTURE  
PROFILES. BEST THING TO DO IS LOWER THE POPS FOR FRIDAY A FEW  
POINTS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS BY ABOUT 4 DEGREES FRIDAY  
AS MODELS TO DEPICT TRAJECTORIES CONDUCIVE TO COLDER INFLOW. ALSO,  
THE MEX GUIDANCE WAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST  
HIGHS FOR FRIDAY. DID NOT LOWER THAT FAR, BUT CAME TO A  
COMPROMISE. OVERALL, MOSTLY WARM BUT NOT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. LOWS  
CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER SO CHILLY AT BEST, COLD AT WORST: 30S  
INTO 20S, WITH SOME 40S OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.  
 

 
 
AVIATION...  
EXITING UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST  
NEVADA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY LIKELY OVER KEKO, THEN KBAM, THEN  
PERHAPS VICINITY KELY. LEAST LIKELY AT KWMC, AND FINALLY KTPH.  
THE ATMOSPHERE IS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IS STILL SATURATED FROM  
YESTERDAY'S RECORD RAINS. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KEKO, LESS  
DENSE AT KBAM, AND VCFG AT KWMC. NOT LIKELY AT KELY AND KTPH.  
 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
SATURDAY AT KEKO, KBAM, KWMC AND POSSIBLE AT KELY. NOT AS LIKELY  
AT KTPH. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY EN ROUTE OVER THE  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.  
 
FOR AIRFIELD OPERATORS, TEMPERATURES AT MANY SITES COULD DROP BELOW  
FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WITH WET FIELDS AND  
SURROUNDINGS SOME ICE COULD POSSIBLY FORM ON GROUNDS AND OUTSIDE  
EQUIPMENT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED OVER  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RECENT WET WEATHER FOLLOWED  
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS POSE NO SIGNIFICANT  
THREATS FOR NEW FIRE STARTS OR IMPACTS TO EXISTING BURN SCARS.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
95/98/98/95  
 
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