046
FXUS65 KLKN 140934
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
234 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDER IN CENTRAL NV SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A TRIO OF FEATURES LOOK TO INFLUENCE NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WILL RESULT IN A FEW MINOR IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. THE
FIRST AND SECOND FEATURES WILL BE A PAIR QUICK MOVING TROUGHS WILL
PASS THROUGH THE WNW FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODELS WHICH HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THESE FEATURES AS WHAT WAS ONE TROUGH WILL SPLIT
INTO TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES. PART ONE WILL KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
WITH IT, STAYING WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND CLIPPING NE NV. THE
SECOND WILL FORM A WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THESE
FEATURES WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH, AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ALSO ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A SMALL WEAK
SHORTWAVE, THE THIRD FEATURE, THAT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH
ARIZONA. FOR THE MOST PART SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT SINCE THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED SE FLOW
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA, ENOUGH
MOISTURE MAY MAKE IT INTO FAR SW WHITE PINE COUNTY TO TRIGGER A
10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS AREAS NEAR GREAT
BASIN NP. AFTER TUESDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WNW THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MAIN HEADLINE FEATURE REMAINS THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND TROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
RISE, AND ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO WARM, RISING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. THIS TREND WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR THE
POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES FOR ELKO COUNTY FOR NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ISSUES FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SW WHITE PINE COUNTY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO N AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 30KT POSSIBLE, FOR KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, AND KENV. THERE IS A LOW
10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR VCTS PRODUCING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FOR KELY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WITH SE WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE FOR KELY AND KTPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SPLITS OVER NE NEVADA, CREATING A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SIERRA, THAT WILL PUSH A WIND SHIFT LINE THROUGH NORTHERN
NEVADA SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. ALSO ON SUNDAY A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING ARIZONA ALONG WITH THE CUTOFF LOW MAY DRAW
ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A 10% TO 20 % CHANCE OF
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SW WHITE PINE COUNTY.
UNFORTUNATELY, NONE OF THESE FEATURES WILL INTERFERE WITH THE
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY, AS DAYTIME HIGHS PEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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