056
FXUS65 KLKN 011844
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1144 AM PDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
CENTRAL NEVADA
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NEVADA TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND SET TO BRING HIGHS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING IN A SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER NEVADA WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH
GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA,
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING UP TO 50%. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BELOW 0.05 INCHES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON MONDAY AS CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR AUSTIN. CHANCES
FOR AREAS TO SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER
DURING THE DAY ARE AS FOLLOWS:
AUSTIN: 45%
ELKO: 30%
ELY: 40%
EUREKA: 60%
OWYHEE: 45%
TONOPAH: 25%
WEST WENDOVER: 10%
WINNEMUCCA: 30%
CHANCES UP TO 30% FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS CAPE
VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 200 J/KG ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH GREATEST
CHANCES ALONG US-93 FROM WELLS TO JACKPOT AS CAPE VALUES REACH UP
TO 300+ J/KG. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH ACROSS
THE US-50 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO A 20-25% CHANCE AS CAPE VALUES ARE A
LITTLE BIT LOWER BETWEEN 150-200 J/KG.
TUESDAY, PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MAJORITY
OF RAIN IN CENTRAL NEVADA ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN UP TO 30% BUT IS NOW MORE CENTRALIZED ALONG US-50.
BY THE AFTERNOON, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES BACK
OVER THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT
PATTERN OVER NEVADA, LEAVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A
WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND THAT WILL REACH ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARM AND FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEVADA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGING BUILDING AGAIN NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES TO THE NBM GRIDS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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