525
FXUS65 KLKN 031944
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1244 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CAUSE REDUCED AIR QUALITY AND MAY
LEAD TO RESPIRATORY ISSUES.
* UNSEASONABLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAT RELATED HEADLINE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED BY MID-
TO-LATE WEEK.
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NV
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HOT, DRY, WINDY WEATHER
* LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
NV THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE FIRE SEASON IN THE GREAT BASIN
CONTINUES AS SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES BOTH IN NV AND SURROUNDING
STATES IS IMPACTING VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY OVER THE REGION
TODAY. HRRR SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS SMOKE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVER
NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND LESS SMOKE OVER THE AREA TOMORROW.
THAT BEING SAID, SMOKE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE FORECAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM.
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRIP THE SW CONUS AND
CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
PLACEMENT OF THE HPC TO THE SOUTH KEEPS NORTHERN NV IN ITS
NORTHERN FLANK MEANING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS
THE PLACEMENT OF THE HPC MEANDERS BETWEEN DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
MEAN A SOUTHERLY SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW BY WEDNESDAY PM/THURSDAY.
THIS COINCIDES WITH A MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WILL SOAR TO TRIPLE
DIGITS. HEAT PRODUCTS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE LATE WEEK AS HEATRISK
INCREASES TO MAJOR AND EVEN EXTREME CATEGORIES FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NV FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND,
COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL
BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR HUMBOLDT AND
ELKO COUNTIES. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW RFW CRITERIA
AT THIS TIME, FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL NEED TO BE SCRUTINIZED FOR
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE HAS AN INCREASE IN PW VALUES OVER NYE AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. DIURNAL FORCING WITH THE EXTREME HEAT
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR CONVECTION. CURRENTLY LOW
PROBABILITIES EXIST IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR A POTENTIAL RETURN TO
CONVECTIVE WEATHER BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
CONTINUED SMOKY CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PROMPT HEAT
PRODUCTS BY MID WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NV LATE THIS WEEK. LOW
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN DRY T PROBABILITIES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
GRID EDITS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR NBM OUTPUT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
AREAS OF SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CREATE MOMENTARY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AT KPTH
AND KELY TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE 15-17KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL FIRE
WEATHER ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ELEVATED WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 437/424/438/469/470 FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND ARE
CLOSELY BEING WATCHED. CURRENTLY WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW RFW
CRITERIA BUT SHOULD THOSE INCREASE, THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
SPEEDS WITH ANTECEDENT DRY, HOT CONDITIONS WILL WARRANT RFW
PRODUCTS FOR THOSE ZONES. SUNDAY A LOW PROBABILITY CHANCE EXISTS
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ZONES 425/426/427.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...86
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