998
FXUS65 KLKN 081203
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
403 AM PST THU DEC 8 2022
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. DRY AND MILD THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW EXPANDING
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NV TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS MORNING,
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3
MILES, HOWEVER POCKET OF MORE DENSE FOG MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, HOWEVER CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK SYSTEM
THAT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING.
SNOW SHOWERS EXPAND SOUTH TO AROUND HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST TO THE
UTAH STATE LINE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MOST SNOWFALL LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO
COUNTIES, WHERE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE
AND 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. SUMMITS AND MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4
INCHES. CENTRAL NV COUNTIES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MOST OF THIS AREA WILL
BE SNOW-FREE.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS
MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING OFF
THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PUSH INLAND AND
BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE SOUTH TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME WITH A BAND POSSIBLY SETTING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, OVER PORTIONS OF THE US HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONSIST OF ALL SNOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND 20S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 30S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
PERHAPS SEEING ONLY THE 20S. THE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL IN THE
VALLEYS FOR THE NORTHERN SECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ONE TO
FOUR INCH RANGE, WHILE IN CENTRAL NEVADA IT WILL BE TWO TO SIX
INCHES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY
AT ANY LOCATION. HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS COULD SEE FOUR TO
EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW. THESE NUMBERS WILRL GET REFINED AS THE
EVENT DRAWS NEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE
COLD UPPER LOW TREKS EAST OVER THE AREA. IT WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COLD HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION CONTINUES TO
BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS FREEZING FOG ONLY PRESENT
OVER THE KEKO TERMINAL, BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SEEN
POCKET FORMING IN VALLEYS AROUND THE REGION. ALONGSIDE THIS
ALREADY DEVELOPED FREEZING FOG, LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DECENT CHANCES OF DEVELOPED AT OR WITHIN THE VICINITY OF
ALL THE OTHER TERMINALS, WITH KTPH HAVING THE LOWEST CHANCE RIGHT
NOW. SHOULD FOG FORM, EXPECTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT KEKO WITH IFR TO OCCASIONAL LIFR LEVELS OF VIS AND
CIGS. DISSIPATION OF ANY FOG IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS LOOKING TO BUILD
BACK INTO TO ALL TERMINALS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER, A NEW SYSTEM WILL LOOK TO MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
CLEAR INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/86/94
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