614  
FXUS65 KLKN 061924  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
1224 PM PDT TUE JUN 6 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
LOOK FOR THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY  
50 CORRIDOR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF IN MOST AREAS BY THE  
MID-EVENING HOURS, HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS  
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO  
SEVERE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL. HIGHS  
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM LOW 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WITH  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING  
HOURS. IT BROUGHT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND AMOUNTS  
WERE LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES.  
 
LOOK FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.  
RADAR HAS SHOWN SOME OF THE CELLS TO BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.  
FAVORABLE SHEAR, ENERGY, AND INSTABILITY ARE STILL EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE BREEZY WINDS DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH IN CENTRAL NEVADA, CONVECTIVE  
WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 40S AND 50S.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED  
TO BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODEL  
SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING LOWERING DEWPOINTS PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES THAT WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH  
OF A EUREKA-LAGES JUNCTION LINE. STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA IS  
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES  
FOR BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. LOOK FOR SOME SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
   
LONG TERM  
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY  
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE AS MULTIPLE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND SHORTWAVES IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE,  
THE LONG TERM IS STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN WITH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE END OF THE  
WEEK WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ENCOURAGE  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS CURRENTLY  
SHOW DAILY QPF TOTALS OF UP TO 0.20 INCHES IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE STATE AND UP TO 0.10 TO 0.15 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WHILE THESE  
NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES, ENSEMBLES  
ARE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE.  
 
THERE ARE TWO NOTABLE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS IN TOTAL QPF BETWEEN  
THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. ONE IS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS RELATIVELY  
SIMILAR TO THE RANGES MENTIONED ABOVE WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA  
SEEING UP TO AN INCH AND CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS SEEING 0.2 TO  
0.5 INCHES. THE SECOND CLUSTER, THOUGH IT IS MADE UP OF FEWER  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, IS SHOWING HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY  
NORTHERN NEVADA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS SHOWING UP  
TO 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF QPF BY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE  
DETERMINISTIC VALUE FOR THESE MULTI-DAY QPF TOTALS, THE COMMON  
DENOMINATOR IS A WET PATTERN REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
THE ACTIVE PATTERN ALSO LEADS TO RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AFTERNOON HIGHS FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE 60S  
AND 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD  
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE  
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN SITES KWMC, KBAM, AND  
KEKO. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL, BUT  
POCKETS OF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSITE WOULD RESULT IN  
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SUCH AS LOW CIGS AND VIS ALONG  
WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. ACTIVE WEATHER DIMINISHES BY 03Z TO  
06Z, BUT SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
RIVER AND STREAM FLOWS REMAIN HIGH AND SWIFT AS  
SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO MELT FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA  
MOUNTAINS. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS, WITH AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PROBABILITIES REMAIN  
LOW THAT ANY GIVEN THUNDERSTORM WILL CAUSE INCREASED HYDROLOGIC  
IMPACTS. SMALLER CREEKS LIKE LAMOILLE WILL SEE DIURNAL  
FLUCTUATIONS, BUT LARGER RIVERS THAT ARE SLOWER RESPONDING WILL  
CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. THE SWOLLEN STREAM FROM SNOWMELT WATER CAN  
BE DANGEROUS AS MULTIPLE PEOPLE HAVE DIED IN THEM OUT WEST SO USE  
CAUTION WHEN ON STREAMS FRESH FROM THE MOUNTAINS.  
 
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS:  
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT COMUS (MODERATE FLOODING)  
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT BATTLE MOUNTAIN (MINOR FLOODING)  
 
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING:  
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT PALISADE  
* HUMBOLDT RIVER AT CARLIN  
* LAMOILLE CREEK  
 
 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
86/84/84  
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