504
FXUS65 KLKN 311856
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1156 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR HEAT-SENSITIVE
GROUPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
* SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES TO LEAD TO REDUCED AIR QUALITY AND MAY
LEAD TO RESPIRATORY ISSUES OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
WHICH KEEPS MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE GREAT
BASIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO STRONGER
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO
30 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ELEVATED TO
LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED HEAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK VALUES FOR MAX
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE THE HOTTEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY LEAD TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CONCERNS FOR THE
ELDERLY AND THOSE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT, BUT TO ANYONE WHO
SPENDS TIME OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SUN. CONSIDER POSTPONING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES UNTIL THE MORNING OR LATE EVENING. DRINK PLENTY
OF FLUIDS, WEAR LOOSE-FITTING CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS A WEAK
"COLD" FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND IDAHO WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THIS SO NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
HERE ARE THE PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS TO TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON
SATURDAY:
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 90%
CARLIN - 85%
ELKO - 85%
WINNEMUCCA - 85%
WEST WENDOVER - 85%
WELLS - 90%
SPRING CREEK - 75%
TONOPAH - 65%
EUREKA - 70%
ELY - 35%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR
HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH TIMING
OF STRONGEST WIND GUSTS COINCIDING WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
REMAINING MORE UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS TODAY FROM 5 TO 10 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 18 KT. HAZY SKIES WITH AREA WILDFIRE
SMOKE LINGERING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
MOSTLY SUNNY AND STORM-FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S ACROSS ALL FIRE ZONES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ZONE 437 AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ZONES 438, 469, AND 470 WITH LOW RH BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR ELEVATED
TO NEAR- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
FROM IDAHO. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH,
WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST FOR 30 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONE 470 (90% CHANCE). THIS COMBINED WITH LOW RH BELOW 10 PERCENT
WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST ACROSS ZONES 438, 469, AND 470 WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH
RECOVERIES MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND 30S ACROSS
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN NEVADA FIRE ZONES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ031-033-035>039.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84
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