808
FXUS65 KLKN 030701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
* POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MONSOON STORMS MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TREND WARMER IN THE 90S. OVER THE WEEKEND, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED EACH DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY, UPPER RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH STILL SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
SET UP TO A MORE SOUTHERLY MONSOONAL FLOW OVER NEVADA. INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
INCREASES, RANGING FROM 0.55-0.65 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. PROBABILITIES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE UP TO 20
TO 25 PERCENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO TREND WARMER IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AGAIN.
TUESDAY, POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION REMAINS, WITH RESIDUAL
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TRENDING MORE ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS LOWER
TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AT 20 TO 25 PERCENT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
REST OF THE WEEK, CONVECTION CHANCES DWINDLE TO QUIET WEATHER AND
WARMING TEMPERATURE TRENDS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 90S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING
TEMPERATURE TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN FORMING MONDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE
NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT OR BELOW 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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