893
FXUS65 KLKN 240844
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
144 AM PDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 10-20% THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* GUSTY SW WINDS MONDAY ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY
* GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH 70S AND 80S FELT BY ALL. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY
50 AND SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARDS ELKO COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH LIMITED RAINFALL OF 0.05 INCHES OR LESS IN THE
VALLEYS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. SKIES
WILL SCATTER OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.
BY MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES, WHILE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SLIDES TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT SIGNS POINT TO A LIMITED AREA OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS IN THE 80S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THOUGH SOME STRONGER GUSTS OF 30 MPH WILL BE FELT ACROSS
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE PACIFIC COAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME, THE STRONGEST
WINDS APPEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH WILL SEE
GUSTS TO 35 MPH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF FIVE HUNDREDTHS OR LESS EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST TREK DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 6500 AND 7500 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NIGHT, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST WITH COLDER AIR
FUNNELING IN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE
ON AND OFF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE IN THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH ROUGHLY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NBM POP
AND WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DRY CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH FL100-150. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TODAY WILL
BE 5% FOR KWMC AND KTPH, 10% FOR KBAM AND KENV, WITH AROUND 15%
FOR KEKO. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY
COULD REACH 40 TO 50 MPH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AT KBAM KEKO AND KENV
MAY PRODUCE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 NOON MONDAY THROUGH
11PM MONDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 437.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FIRE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS (PROBABILITY OF TEN TO
TWENTY PERCENT). MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BY MONDAY, AN
INCOMING EAST PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST STATES, AIMING TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, ON MONDAY, ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 437 AS WIND SPEEDS GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HOVERING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST TUESDAY, WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS US HIGHWAY 50 IN CENTRAL NEVADA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL COOL, THOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL FIRE ZONES. LOOK
FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID-WEEK WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
NVZ437.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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