306
FXUS65 KLKN 092204
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
304 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
* MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
WHITE PINE, NORTHERN NYE AND PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTIES FOR
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SEE DECENT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A HALF TO OVER
AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
* LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AT THIS
TIME ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS ARE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY AS WELL. LOOK FOR THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING, THOUGH SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR
WINDS REMAIN UP OR INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S.
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS THREE DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF NORTH AMERICA. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ALL
PLAY A ROLE IN AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE SHORT TERM. UPPER LOW NUMBER ONE IS SITUATED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. UPPER LOW TWO IS JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. AND
UPPER LOW THREE IS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. MODELS ARE
DEPICTING UPPER LOW TWO AND RACHEL COALESCING SATURDAY OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WITH UPPER LOW ONE DIVING TO THE SOUTH. FOR
TOMORROW, LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AS WELL. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH EXPECTED. SOUTHERN
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES ARE ON THE CUSP OF THE STRONG WINDS AS
WELL BUT WERE CONSIDERED BORDERLINE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AS COOLER TROUGH ENERGY (UPPER LOW ONE) WILL BE DROPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES AND WILL JOIN WITH UPPER
TROUGHS TWO AND THREE. REMNANTS FROM RACHEL WILL DRIVE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND 0.80 TO 0.90 INCHES, WHICH
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SURPASS THE PREVIOUSLY RECORDED DAILY MAXIMUM
VALUE OF 0.74 INCHES FOR OCTOBER 11. IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA. LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE OF 100 J/KG
WILL EXIST, ALONG WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THESE INGREDIENTS ARE DEPICTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEVADA. AS A
RESULT, HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NYE, WHITE PINE AND
PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTIES. CONCERN EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO
RECENTLY BURNED AREAS AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THERE MAY
NEED TO BE ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS PLACED IN THE WATCH AREA BASED ON
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE SO WILL BE KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
RAIN CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. OVERALL
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH AMOUNTS OF A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE IN SPOTS. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TUESDAY WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 60S TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS
IN THE 70S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT
TERM THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, INCREASING WIND SPEEDS AND WIND
GUSTS, POPS, AND WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM. QPF HAS ALSO
COME UP AS WELL. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EASTERN
NEVADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING
TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING BUT WILL PICK UP TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 11Z-15Z. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE SW-W15-25G30-40KT OVER ALL TERMINALS. BLDU IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND COULD REDUCE VSBY TO ONE MILE
OR LESS IN THE DUSTIER LOCALES.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 437, 438, 469, AND 470
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY FOR ZONES
424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AS WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SW AT 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. SATURDAY WINDS
WILL INCREASE A BIT TO 15-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
RH VALUES TODAY WILL BE NEAR 10% TO 20% AREA WIDE, HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING SATURDAY AS RH VALUES INCREASE TO 20% TO 35% OR
HIGHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
DEEP MOISTURE FROM DECAYING HURRICANE RACHEL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD, CROSSING INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY MONDAY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE WATCH AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND MAY RESULT IN ROCK, MUD, AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN
AND NEAR FORMER FIRE BURNED AREAS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND POORLY
DRAINED URBAN AREAS. SOME OF THE FORMER FIRE LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE FORMER WARD FIRE, KEARNY FIRE, OXLEY FIRE,
SECRET PASS FIRE, STARR VALLEY FIRE, JONES FIRE, AND EGBERTS
FIRE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES
437, 438, 469, AND 470.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM PDT TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE
ZONES 424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
NVZ033-035-040-041.
FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
NVZ033>035-039>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
HYDRO...86
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