112  
FXUS65 KLKN 091925  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
1225 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SILVER STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS PRESENT ACROSS HUMBOLDT, NORTHERN NYE,  
LANDER, AND EUREKA COUNTIES TODAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA  
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVE MONSOON WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS  
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS  
AIDED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST. FAVORABLE  
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD  
ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. SOME  
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MODEL  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL  
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH FLASH FLOODING THREAT  
CONTINUING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN NYE COUNTY TO HUMBOLDT  
COUNTY. THIS CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF  
OF THE STATE AS THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO  
THE COAST AND FURTHER NORTHWARD. SIMILARLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC  
MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN EASTERN NV  
WEDNESDAY. THIS ONCE AGAINST IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING AND  
FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE WINDS AND HAIL. MONSOON  
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV FOR THURSDAY. THE  
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS  
BUT STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH. SO THE FLOODING THREAT ON THURSDAY IS  
NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT STILL PRESENT. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY TO THURSDAY AND  
WEAKLY GUSTY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY GET OVERSHADOWED BY THE  
EXPECTED STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF  
DAYS ALONG WITH ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY RISE.  
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS A GIVEN WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF  
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 IN MANY VALLEYS TODAY  
AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVERALL WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE  
COOLEST DAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY  
 
THE SUMMER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED IN SUCH A WAY  
AS TO KEEP STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEVADA. PWATS DO  
CALM DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE VERY HIGH ANOMALOUS VALUES OF THE  
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THOUGH. STILL, THEY LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INITIATE MAINLY WET STORMS, WITH PERHAPS SOME WET/DRY MIXES ON THE  
OUTSKIRTS OF THE MAIN STORM CLUSTERS. HUMBOLDT COUNTY LOOKS TO BE  
MAINLY DRY, HOWEVER, AND OVERALL STORMS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD  
AS RECENTLY; MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VARIETY. HIGHS  
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80'S, EXCEPT FOR HUMBOLDT  
COUNTY WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S EACH DAY.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. WINDS WILL STAY SEASONALLY  
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS  
THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES COULD SEE RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY  
OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED  
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BRINGING POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR  
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP IS AT KWMC.  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS NEVADA AS AN STRONG MONSOON IMPACTS THE REGION.  
WET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
SILVER STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE  
WITH FLOODING REMAINING A CONCERN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH  
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN VALLEY AREAS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. RECENT AND EXPECTED WETTING RAINFALL WILL FURTHER  
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MONSOON PUSH CONTINUES ACROSS  
THE STATE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH TODAY WITH  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1" TO 1.25" OR GREATER. THIS WOULD  
PLACE THIS MOISTURE IN THE TOP 10 TO 1% FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGH WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING  
PROVIDED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL  
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL  
LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN NEEDED TO  
CAUSE FLOODING WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS OF HIGH RUNOFF SUCH AS  
CANYONS, ROCKY AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED  
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IN CREEK BEDS OR NORMALLY  
DRY ARROYOS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE SOURCE AS WATER FLOWS  
DOWNSTREAM. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED TURN AROUND AND DON'T  
DROWN. FLOOD WATERS CAN EASILY DESTROY ROADS AND SWEEP AWAY BOTH  
PEOPLE AND VEHICLES. FLOOD WATERS CAN HIDE DANGEROUS DEBRIS SUCH A  
LOGS AND BOULDERS. REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL POLICE OR FIRE WHEN  
IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NYE,  
HUMBOLDT, LANDER, AND EUREKA COUNTIES TO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FLOOD  
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EVENING FOR NE NYE, LANDER,  
EUREKA, ELKO, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR  
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER  
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST  
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO  
COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-  
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.  
 
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-  
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN  
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND  
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.  
 

 
 

 
 
99/90/90/99  
 
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