975
FXUS65 KLKN 270832
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
132 AM PDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
NV
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING TREND THIS WEEK
* INCREASING HEATRISK BY FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION
WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINER FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND AND
HALF, BUT MODELS HINT AT A PARTING SHOT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION STAYING DRY AND
VERY WARM, FOR UT/NV BORDER AREA, CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN NV AND EVEN A LOW 20% TO 20% CHANCE FOR A
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE UT/NV BORDER AND COULD REACH ELY AND WEST
WENDOVER. HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES THE GROUND WILL
BE BRIEF AND VERY LIGHT AS STORM MOTION LIMITS ACCUMULATIONS.
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY MID/LONG RANGE MODELS ARE RESOLUTE IN
THE RETURN OF QUIET SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON W
TO SW WINDS, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. FIRE WEATHER, AND HEAT
RISK CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THE DRYING OUT
OF BOTH THE LAND AND ATMOSPHERE COMMENCES, AND HEAT BUILDS,
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL BE BRIEF IF ANY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST TO SW WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS RANGING AT 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE
MID 90S TO MID 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF
ELKO COUNTY FOR SUNDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS HEAT
IMPACTS BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR FIRE WEATHER, RH PERCENT
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
AFTERNOONS, WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ONLY MAKING IT BACK TO THE
UPPER 20S, COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON WINDS MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FAR EASTERN NV.
THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF QUIET SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS UP TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KENV MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR OR AT KELY AND KENV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NV MONDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NW NEVADA. A LOW PERCENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALONG THE EASTERN NV BORDER IN FWZ
425/470 THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS INCLUDING DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS. FASTER STORM MOTIONS TODAY WILL INHIBIT
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR FROM EXTINGUISHING ANY NEW STARTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...99
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