695
FXUS65 KLKN 230846
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
146 AM PDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT SET TO DECLINE
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH EACH AFTERNOON, ENDING SUNDAY
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS HELPED BRING NEED RAIN AND THUNDERSHOWERS
TO THE SILVER STATE IS ON ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT BACK WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, CUTTING OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE FEED ALLOWING FOR
STORM CHANCES TO WIND DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THURSDAY THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD WEST, AS IT RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE SW US THE SOUTHERN
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CUTTING OF OUR MONSOON
MOISTURE SUPPLY. FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND INTO THE WEEKEND SEE
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DROP EACH DAY, AS WELL AS COVERAGE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND SPARSE AS DRY AIR SHIFTS WEST TO EAST,
CULMINATING WITH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEING THE LAST CHANCE FOR STORMS
UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH. WITH THE DRYING TREND, TEMPERATURES
ARE SET TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THAT IS
EXACT RIDGE LOCATION, CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE KEEPING THE
MONSOONAL FLOW TO OUR EAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY, BUT IF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TO FAR EASTERN NV
AS EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DECREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SW FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS NEXT TUESDAY FOR FAR EASTERN NV.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF KEKO, KELY, KBAM, AND KENV THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...87
FIRE WEATHER...87
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page