439
FXUS65 KLKN 121856
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1156 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS TODAY
* COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
* NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
* WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG GUSTY WINDS TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST MOVES INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON
STATE WHICH IS TIGHTENING WEATHER GRADIENTS, FORMING A JET STREAK
OVER NEVADA. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED OVER
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, AND WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH
GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40-50 MPH, WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE MAY SEE
GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH. WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING AS WELL AS A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 80S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MOVE IN TONIGHT, DROPPING THE LOWS INTO
THE 40S.
SUNDAY, BREEZY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH GUSTS REACHING UP
TO 25-35 MPH (STRONGEST WINDS ALONG EASTERN NEVADA). ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAVE
HUMIDITY BELOW 15%, HOWEVER REMAIN BORDERLINE AS WHEN THE WINDS
INCREASE, HUMIDITY ALSO RISES ABOVE 20% DUE TO THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE 70S WITH CENTRAL NEVADA STAYING IN THE
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDEST IN NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE 30S
WITH SOME AREAS DROPPING TO FREEZING LEVEL, WHILE CENTRAL NEVADA
COOLS INTO THE 40S.
MONDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND FAIR AS THE MAIN
FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE JET STREAK. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL KEEP A NEAR ZONAL
TO ALMOST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NEVADA. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN COOL WITH
NORTHERN NEVADA AGAIN IN THE 30S (SOME AREAS REACHING TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES) AND CENTRAL NEVADA IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK, THERE IS SOME INCONSISTENCIES
WITHIN THE FORECAST AS TO WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING TO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MOVING OVER NEVADA, WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE
TROUGH REMAINING UNCHANGED. THE MAIN CONSISTENCY IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S UNTIL REACHING
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO BE CONSISTENT
STAYING LIGHT TO SOME MILD AFTERNOON BREEZES. NO WEATHER IS
FORECASTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE TO UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS
DUE TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE TO GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES REACHING TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. CHANGES TO THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS IN THE
GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 KTS, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 KTS. THERE MAY
BE POSSIBLE BLDU CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM TODAY DUE TO STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT ACROSS ALL
ZONES. TOMORROW, BREEZY WIND CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TOMORROW AS HUMIDITY DOES DROP TO BELOW 15% DURING THE DAY,
HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RECOVER ABOVE 20% AROUND THE SAME
TIME AS WHEN THE WINDS INCREASE. NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED
FOR SUNDAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS REMAIN BORDERLINE. COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING AS LOW AS FREEZING IN SOME
VALLEYS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ030-031-035.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FWZ424-425-426-427-437-438-469-470.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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