865
FXUS65 KLKN 031954
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1254 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY AND BREEZY THRU FRIDAY
* STRONGER WINDS SATURDAY COMBINE WITH LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.
* ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A SHORTWAVE GRAZING THE NORTHERN NV
BORDER WEDNESDAY EVENING IS STRENGTHENING A WESTERLY WIND FIELD
PUSHING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE WAVE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD BY THURSDAY
AM ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERHEAD TO RELAX.
THE STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW HOWEVER WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AGAIN
OVER THE STATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY A MUCH STRONGER HOT, DRY,
WINDY EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV. CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH. PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 44 MPH ARE CURRENTLY VERY
ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 55-60%. WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCTS MAY BE ISSUED IF WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS. A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDER EXISTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY EASTERN WHITE PINE
COUNTY THOUGH INSTABILITY VALUES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH RECENT MODEL
RUNS.
BEYOND SATURDAY THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
NEXT WEEKS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DRAG SHORTWAVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE AXES' OF THESE WAVES WILL HELP TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STATE
BEGINNING MONDAY. THE FIRST WAVE IS NOT INSPIRING IN TERMS OF
MOISTURE SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FAIRLY
LOW. ANOTHER WAVE RIDING THE PARENT LOW'S SOUTHERN FLANK SETS UP
TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN BY LATE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
FOR HOT, DRY, WINDY SETUP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A STRONGER WIND
EVENT ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND/WIND GUST
GRIDS WERE BOLSTERED FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS USING HRRR/NBM90
COMBO.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY PM WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT KWMC, KEKO, AND KBAM GUSTING
TO NEAR 30KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AT KTPH AND KELY ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE 20-22KTS BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS THURSDAY
WILL BE LIGHTER IN GENERAL ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH KTPH AND KELY
ARE FORECAST TO SEE GUSTS RANGING 20-22KTS AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THURSDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO ENHANCED ON
FRIDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR FIRE ZONE 437.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR SATURDAY, WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES. SUNDAY WILL SEE A DECREASE IN WIND RISK
BUT AN INCREASE IN RISK FROM A LOW PROBABILITY DRY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO IN FIRE ZONE 425.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...94
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