406  
FXUS65 KLKN 170740  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
* AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED IN MOST  
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING  
 
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN EASTERN  
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
 
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1240 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2025  
 
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS  
WILL PULL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER STATE.  
AS A RESULT, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING SHOULD BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS. THE CYCLONE ALOFT  
WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED, PRIMARILY WET, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN  
NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HERE ARE  
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON FRIDAY, JULY 18TH, 2025:  
 
LUND - 42%  
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 39%  
ELY - 37%  
DUCKWATER - 36%  
EUREKA - 27%  
JACKPOT - 26%  
MANHATTAN - 26%  
CURRIE - 25%  
TONOPAH - 23%  
WELLS - 20%  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH  
OF LOW PRESSURE SATURDAY. IT LOOKS AS IF SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST  
DAY FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM FORMATION IN THE SERVICE AREA.  
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD,  
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE  
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING  
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LIFT  
NORTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH  
AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET  
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPANDED THE AREA OF DRY  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO  
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24  
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE S-SW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25  
KTS.  
 
INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BRING A  
15-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INCLUDING KEKO AND KENV. CIGS  
WILL RANGE FROM FL100 TO FL150. VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35  
KTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNDRAFTS AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM  
NEARBY STORMS.  
 
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE MID-EVENING HOURS, WITH  
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED IN  
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG. THE PRIMARY  
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH AND  
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING STRIKES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
ARE ANTICIPATED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY AND MONDAY DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST  
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW  
AS SIX PERCENT.  
 
 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...87  
AVIATION...90  
FIRE WEATHER...87  
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