466
FXUS65 KLKN 031935
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1235 PM PDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
AGAIN FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING COOLER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
BEGINNING NEXT SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THAT MODELS WANT TO BRING A
VERY WEAK PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
TROUGH LOOKS ONLY TO SERVE TO HELP PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AS IT
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE JARBIDGE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
HOWEVER CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10% AT MOST. BY
WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
WESTERN US, AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. BY NEXT SATURDAY
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PATTERN CHANGE THAT MAY BRING MORE ACTIVE,
WETTER WEATHER BACK TO NEVADA IN THE FORM OF A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER TROUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL NEAR TO RECORD, OR
RECORD HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR FAR NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE RETURN OF UPPER RIDGING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH W TO SW WINDS OF 5KT TO 15 KT WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 20 KT
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL
FIRE ZONES AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA, REACHING RECORD TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...97
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