063
FXUS65 KLKN 311933
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1233 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK
* DRY WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND
* STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE NEXT SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OVER
WASHINGTON IS DRAGGING ITS AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY,
THOUGH A LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA KEEPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING DRY. THE LOW WILL BROADEN ITS AXIS INTO THE EARLY WEEK
KEEPING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
THE GENERAL STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN CONUS HAS LIFTED BACK TO
THE NORTH. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL GRAZE THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE STATE THIS WEEK RIDING THE FLOW OF A PARENT LPC
SLOWLY MIGRATING EASTWARD ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE REGION
IS MOISTURE STARVED THROUGH THE WEEK SO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY
LIMITED CAPE VALUES AND PW VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 0.5 INCHES
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES MAY LEAD
TO SOME BUILD UPS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE LONG HIGH AT THIS TIME. FORCING WILL BE OF A
DIURNAL NATURE THANKS TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THAT HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS THE AREA. THANKS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY,
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL BE ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH NO LOCAL RECORDS LOOK TO BE IN
JEOPARDY AT THIS TIME.
BY LATE WEEK A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE PACIFIC NW. WHILE THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA ITS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FUTURE SCRUTINY
OF MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO CHECK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
PRODUCTS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING
TREND THIS WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER WINDS NEXT SATURDAY. NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT KWMC OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
UP TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS BEFORE SUNRISE WHEN WINDS WILL
DIMINISH.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY SIDE ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 MPH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW TEEN RANGE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WARMING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID-WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...86
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