699
FXUS65 KLKN 080250 CCA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
224 PM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH FRIDAY.
* GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH STRONGEST GUSTS (OF
35-45 MPH) ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
* CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (OF 40-60%) WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
* CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT
THE HIGH PEAKS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING
NEAR RECORDS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE, WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AS LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT OVER NEVADA. CONCURRENTLY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SOUTHEAST, REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE RACHEL WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA, GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW,
AND BRING A BIG INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (40-60%) EXPECTED ON BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THOUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A BIG DIP AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES OVER NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY, AND DROPPING INTO THE 70S SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER DIP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, 60S IN CENTRAL NEVADA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO SEE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE 40S ON
FRIDAY, AND REACHING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S BY
SUNDAY LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN IN THE
FORECAST EACH NIGHT HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE VERY LOW AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AS SNOW LEVELS DROP SLOWLY
EACH DAY STAYING ABOVE 8000 FEET. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY IN CENTRAL NEVADA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO NEVADA LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS INCREASING FRIDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS ON SATURDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO
MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MOVING INTO NEVADA OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. CHANGES TO WIND GUSTS IN THE GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT
THE INCREASING WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOUR PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BELOW 10 MPH. BY FRIDAY, THE WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN IN
THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO NEVADA, INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. MINIMUM RH
RESIDE AROUND 10-15%. MINIMUM RH INCREASES ABOVE 15% SATURDAY THOUGH
AT THE SAME TIME THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGER THAN FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS 35-
40 MPH. RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS WILL BE BORDERLINE BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL NORTHERN
ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE ARE STILL ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN THE
AREA AND BORDERLINE RFW CONDTIONS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH FOR A NOTABLE
INCREASE IN FIRE ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
HALF OF FWZ 437. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH 1 PM PST TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
NV424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH 9 AM PST TO 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
NV424, 437, 438, 469, AND 470.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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