282
FXUS65 KLKN 061937
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1237 PM PDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VARIOUS HEAT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS
BETWEEN NOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SITUATE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 100S HAVE PROMPTED
SEVERAL HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA. EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN ELKO COUNTY FROM WELLS TO WEST WENDOVER.
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR RUBY MOUNTAINS, NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY AND WHITE PINE COUNTY UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REST OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA ARE UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY AND
WILL BE UNDER EXTREME HEAT WARNING STARTING 6 AM FRIDAY. FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL LAST UNTIL 11 PM
FRIDAY, FOR SOUTHWESTERN ELKO, LANDER, EUREKA, AND N. NYE COUNTY,
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL LAST UNTIL 11 PM SATURDAY.
A TIGHTER WEATHER GRADIENT JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEVADA WILL
INCREASE WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ALONG THE
STATE BORDER. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THOSE ZONES DUE
TO AFTERNOON BREEZES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND EXTREME HEAT.
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS AIDING IN PRODUCING A MONSOONAL
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ARIZONA AND THE BAJA BEING THE MAIN
AREAS FOR MOISTURE. THE RIDGE WILL PUSH SOME OF THAT MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND REACHING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING UP TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES ACROSS
N. NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MID-HIGH LEVELS IN
THE ATMOSPHERE, PROMPTING THE STORMS TO BE MORE DRY THAN WET,
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS LOW FOR FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, PROBABILITIES INCREASE
FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW WHICH MAY PROMPT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
COLLAPSE ON THEMESELVES AS STORM DOWNDRAFTS WILL SUBDUE THE
UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT, THE STORMS MAY BE SHORT LIVED AND ANY
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 50 MPH.
ACTIVE MONSOONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA BY MONDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUE FOR
NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS FOR FRIDAY TO BETTER REFLECT DRY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. SMOKE FROM ACTIVE WILDFIRES WILL STILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLIGHT
LEVEL CATEGORY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIAL FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FROM A MONSOONAL PATTERN INTO CENTRAL NEVADA
YET REMAIN FAR SOUTH FROM THE CENTRAL TERMINALS. HIGH CHANCES FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
EXTREME HEAT RETURNS TO ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES BEGINNING THURSDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONES
438/469/470 AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ZONE 437. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
17-20MPH WITH GUSTS RANGING 20-25 MPH COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES LESS THAN 15% WILL CREATE CONDITIONS
FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH STARTING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS IN FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON INTO
NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY NVZ030-036>038-040-041.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING 6 AM PDT FRIDAY UNTIL 11 PM PDT FRIDAY
NVZ030.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING 6 AM PDT FRIDAY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
NVZ036-037-038-040-041.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ031-034-035.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ033-039.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...99
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