208
FXUS65 KLKN 051928
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1228 PM PDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING TREND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEK
* POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK RETURNS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A RIDGE PUSHING TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT
BASIN WILL OPEN ITS WESTERN FLANK UP TO THE AREA MEANING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THOUGH NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN DANGER AT ANY CLIMATE SITE
THROUGH MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL
BY MID WEEK WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE INTO THE PROFILE OVER
THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD ULT TO THE NORTH OVER
CANADA. TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD MOISTURE FROM THE
LPC INTERACTING WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE UPSTREAM FLOW OF THE ULT
TO THE NORTH. CURRENT MODEL RUNS, HOWEVER, HAVE RE-POSITIONED THE
SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ROBBING THE MOISTURE STILL
ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH OF ANY NEEDED FORCING. THIS HAS
DIMINISHED QPF AND SNOW TOTALS FOR THE AREA AT LEAST FOR MID WEEK
EXPECTATIONS.
BY THURSDAY THE LPC IS CLOSER TO THE SW CONUS AND
WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE ITS OWN FORCING TO THE AREA. A FAIRLY WARM
SYSTEM, SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAINFALL FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NV. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY WILL RENDER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED AS 0.1-0.15 NORTH OF US-50 ON THURSDAY, AND
0.1-0.2 FOR CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NV ON FRIDAY. CAPE VALUES AT
THAT TIME ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH ENOUGH FORCING IN THE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LPC TO THE WEST ISOLATED CONVECTION ISN'T
IMPOSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARMING
TREND CONTINUES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEATHER
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. MOISTURE VALUES CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW HAS MOVED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO SHORT TERM GRIDS IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN
NATURE WITH NO PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
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