580
FXUS65 KLKN 150905
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
205 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
* HEAT RISK INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A POSSIBLE LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP
PATTERN QUIET WITH WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC NW MOVES IN NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN NV. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE WNW. THE RIDGE
AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF SHORE, KEEPING THE MAIN WESTERLY FLOW
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES, AS WIND SPEED RISE FROM 10 MPH TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH MONDAY, TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. ANOTHER FACTOR TO
WATCH WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO RANGE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S, WHICH WILL RAISE HEAT RISK CONCERNS
ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE WEAKENS
ENOUGH TO BE PUSHED EAST ACROSS NV INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S, BUT MAY BE
A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO
TRANSIT NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW FRIDAY
EVENING THE SHIFT TO THE NW SUNDAY AT 10 MPH TO 20 MPH. THE MAIN
CHANGE THE TROUGH WILL BRING WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
NEVADA. AS FOR OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACTS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH AS
THE MOST RECENT RUNS HOWEVER SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE A 20% TO 30%
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MIX OF WET OR DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA. AFTER SUNDAY MODEL AGREEMENT DISSIPATES AS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER PATTERN LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE OUTLOOK
AS EITHER A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OR A BUILDING SUMMERTIME
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN US.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ISSUES FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TROUGH BRINGING A LOW 20% TO 30%
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO WNW AT 10KT TO 20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S,
BREEZY NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH, AND LOW
DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT WINDS
BRIEFLY TO THE SW SATURDAY BEFORE A COOL FRONT SHIFTS WINDS BACK
TO THE NW SUNDAY. THIS FROM WILL BRING IN COOLER AIR, BUT
INTRODUCE A LOW 20% TO 30 CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD BE
A MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page