232
FXUS65 KLKN 230910
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 5-15% THIS AFTERNOON
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 MPH. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH STORMS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
MONDAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S AND 80S ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S. BY TUESDAY, AN EAST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEVADA. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. SOME LOCALES MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. HIGHS WILL BE
SEVEN TO TWELVE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LOOK FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WPC POP FORECAST WAS USED IN PLACE OF
NBM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 10-15%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KWMC KEKO KBAM AND KELY TODAY. KENV AND
KTPH HAVE AROUND A 5% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN ANY STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP. OUTFLOW
WINDS HOWEVER MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING, CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
LATER IN THE MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A 5 TO 10% CHANCE
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO MOUNTAINS, WITH LIKELY ONLY VIRGA IN VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96/86
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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