238
FXUS65 KLKN 042013
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
113 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK
* POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
* EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HEATRISK FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE TOMORROW, DRIVEN BY LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS. WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN
INSTABILITY, THE RESULT IS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED CELL
OR TWO ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT INSTABILITY IS
MUCH LESS FAVORABLE. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVEN AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA STRENGTHENS RIDGING OVER NEVADA AND KEEPS
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DISAPPEARS BY WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH AND
RIDGE STRENGTHEN FURTHER, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS EVEN REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND
LOW 60S. THERE IS ALREADY A MODERATE LEVEL OF HEATRISK FOR FRIDAY
AND THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT
IMPACTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN AN ADDITIONAL WARMUP LATE WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. POP AND THUNDER PROBABILITIES WERE
INCREASED TO BETTER SHOW TOMORROW’S DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KTPH, WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KT ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH RISK AREAS IN
ZONE 437 TOMORROW, 425/437/470 MONDAY, AND NORTHERN 469/470 ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTERNOON
BREEZES IN CENTRAL NEVADA MAY BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH. CRITICAL
WIND THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET DURING THIS FORECAST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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