593
FXUS65 KLKN 180822
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
122 AM PDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS AT ALL
LOCATIONS TODAY
* OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING THIS
MORNING
* A SLOW WARMUP WILL START TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 112 AM PDT MON MAY 18 2026
ADDED PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO THE VALLEYS IN NORTHERN NEVADA DUE TO
THE PRECIPITATION RECEIVED OVER THE AREA YESTERDAY. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER THIS MORNING. THE FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO BURN OFF QUICKLY DUE TO THE EARLY SUNRISE. NO OTHER
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
NEVADA HAS OVER-PERFORMED SO FAR WITH RESPECT TO PRIOR FORECASTS
ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AS SNOWFALL WITH THE FRONT HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED AND WITH PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN FORECAST. ELKO SO FAR HAD SEEN ABOUT 0.21” OF
WATER WHICH FELL AS 1.6 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR THIS MORNING.
WINNEMUCCA HAS SEEN 0.17” OF WATER INCLUDING 0.2” OF SNOW SO FAR.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PERFORMANCE SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STILL THINK
THE SNOW RAIN TRANSITION WILL BE AT 4500 FEET, BUT COULD DROP TO
VALLEY FLOORS IF CLOUDS CAN KEEP THE SUN AT BAY. WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH AS MODEL
TRENDS OUTSIDE OF THE NBM SUPPORT CURRENT WIND HEADLINES ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE NBM IS THE LOW OUTLIER WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS SO WENT AHEAD AND UPPED THE WINDS TO BETTER
CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS AFTERNOON THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, AND BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD BRINGING
STRONGER DYNAMICAL LIFT. SO IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV
AS BETTER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. OVERALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE BETTER
WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 0.10” OF WATER FOR THE VALLEYS AND 1” TO
3” OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NV. AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL
NV HAVE RISEN TOO, WITH PRECIPITATION APPROACHING EUREKA AND SNOW
STARTING IN ELY. CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR 0.05” TO 0.5” OF WATER FOR
THE VALLEYS, AND UP TO 2” TO 7” FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FAVORING EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY. UPPER TROUGH LOOK TO
MAKE ITS EXIT ACROSS UTAH AND INTO CO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WILL BE COOL, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S TODAY, RECOVERING INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY WEAK WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NV ALONG
WITH WEAK AND SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT. THIS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR QUIET CONDITIONS TO RETURN, ALONG WITH
A WARMING TREND THAT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70 TO LOW 80S BY NEXT SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT
MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S, HOWEVER AS THE
WARMING TREND GETS UNDER WAY LOWS TO WILL WARM BACK ABOVE
FREEZING, REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AFTER MONDAY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEPARTURE: WENT AHEAD AND HAD TO BUMP UP THE WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY AREAS ACROSS HUMBOLDT, N
ELKO, S LANDER, S EUREKA, N NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS THE
NBM WINDS WERE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT TRENDS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH EASTERN
NEVADA.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS FOR ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR WESTERN NV THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A RETURN TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS WNW FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBTLE
RIDGING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
80S BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
PATCHY FZFG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS WITH VCFG NEAR KEKO. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON NW10-20G30KT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/98
AVIATION...98
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