737
FXUS65 KLKN 160701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
* COOLING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
* A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
NEVADA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A WEAK TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL STILL REMAIN DRY FROM THE OVERLYING RIDGE, RESULTING IN MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE LOW 30S TONIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AS WE
GET TO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS.
AFTER MONDAY, WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A POLAR JET TO PUSH THROUGH,
BRINGING A VERY DEEP LOW, COLDER TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DEEP LOW MOVING OFF THE
PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ, CA, AND SOUTHERN NV, WHICH WILL
EXTEND A VORTICITY MAXIMA LINE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THE DIFFERENT MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH TIMING, BUT THERE
IS AN OVERALL TREND OF MOVING IT LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS CURRENTLY HAS THE PRIMARY PASSAGE OCCURRING FOR THE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WHILE THE ECMWF IS LOOKING MORE
MID-DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE STILL A
QUESTION, WITH THE BIGGEST CONCERNS BEING AROUND THE SURFACE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, THE LESS WHIMSICAL OPTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY, IN THE
SURFACE LOWS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL AFTER THE FROPA AND THE
PRECIPITATION HAS PASSED. THIS MEANS WIDESPREAD RAIN IS IN THE
FORECAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE WON’T SEE ANY SNOW IN THE VALLEYS, BUT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF JUST RAIN IS STILL SEEMING HIGHER. AS WE PUSH INTO
THIS EVENT, THE HIGHS ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S/ LOW 60S
PRE-FRONTAL, AND IN THE MID 40S/ LOW 50S POST-FRONTAL. THE LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PATTERN OF UPPER 30S/ LOW 40S PRE-FRONTAL,
AND IN THE MID 30S POST-FRONTAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A RELATIVELY
CLEAR AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POLAR JET
BRINGING PRECIPITATION AND COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TIMING OF THE
POLAR JET.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE AROUND
FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL VALUES. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE SILVER STATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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