837
FXUS65 KLKN 160912
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
212 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2025
* MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
* CLOUDS PUSH UP INTO CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY WITH A 25% CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NYE COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT
* MOSTLY CLOUDY FRIDAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NV AND A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NV
* DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY, WITH A 10
TO 25% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS, HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN NV
* MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXITING NORTHEASTERN NV
INTO UT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LEAVE A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER NV. COLDEST TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS
ELKO COUNTY WHERE MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S.
AREAS SUCH CLOVER VALLEY AND RUBY VALLEY JUST EAST OF THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATION VALLEYS ACROSS
ELKO COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH LOW 30S JUST BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATER TODAY AND
ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP INTO
SOUTHERN CA ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO
CENTRAL NV. THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL NV THURSDAY NIGHT WHERE
THERE WILL BE A 25% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NV AND A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NV. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY ON SATURDAY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO NV FROM THE WEST.
NBM SEEMS A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ALSO THUNDERSTORMS INTO HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORE REALISTIC WOULD BE A 10-20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAYBE A 15% CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UP INTO
NORTHERN WHITE PINE AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY. EXPECT THE LOW
OVER SOUTHERN CA TO CENTER ITSELF SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE OF THE CA
COAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: ALTERED THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WIND FORECASTS USING A 2 TO 1 BLEND OF NBM AND NBM90PCT.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER SATURDAY POPS
AND PROBTS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NV.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH NO WINDS FORECAST ABOVE
11KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN KEEPS A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA AND A FORECAST VOID OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEFORE FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES
WHILE AFTERNOON RH VALUES DRY OUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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