930
FXUS65 KLKN 171731
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1031 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AND TUESDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER NORTH, IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE THAT ROBUST, RESULTING IN LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLOODING, SMALL
HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT
LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY, JULY 17TH, 2026:
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 50%
ELY - 47%
LUND - 47%
JACKPOT - 46%
CURRIE - 42%
EUREKA - 38%
WELLS - 38%
RUBY LAKE - 36%
WEST WENDOVER - 35%
ELKO - 26%
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR
SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON TUESDAY, JULY 21ST, 2026:
CURRIE - 47%
ELY - 46%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 43%
LUND - 43%
RUBY LAKE - 43%
EUREKA - 42%
WELLS - 35%
WEST WENDOVER - 34%
JACKPOT - 33%
ELKO - 32%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KELY AND
KEKO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KENV THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
87
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