260
FXUS65 KLKN 110625
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1125 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH PATCHY BLOWING DUST CAUSING MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.
* MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
WHITE PINE, NORTHERN NYE, SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, AND ELKO
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* MOST AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL SEE DECENT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING A HALF TO OVER
AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.
* LINGERING SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
EVENING UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT
THROUGH 11PM SATURDAY, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
DETAILS. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR OTHER DISCUSSIONS AT THIS
TIME.
SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY AT THIS TIME CROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE HAVE ALLOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ONE OR TWO RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO AND
NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER ON TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
THE RAMP UP OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE RACHEL JOINING FORCES WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE STATES OF
OREGON AND WASHINGTON. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE FIRST TWENTY-FOUR
HOURS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS GREATER THAN AN INCH. WITH
RESPECT TO THE PROBABILITY, THERE ARE SIXTY TO EIGHTY PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA. AS A RESULT, HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA COUNTIES AND ELKO COUNTY
BEGINNING TONIGHT AT 11PM AND LASTING UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE SEVEN TO EIGHT TENTHS, WHICH WOULD MAKE
THIS NEAR A DAILY RECORD AMOUNT FOR OCTOBER 11. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 60S AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY AND STRONG. ONE
CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY,
WHICH SITS AT ABOUT TWENTY PERCENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
CONTAINED IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE CAPE
AND INSTABILITY FOR TOMORROW WHERE CELLS COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE BURN SCAR LOCATIONS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
LIGHTER RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
DRY BUT NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TWEAK
THE NBM FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO POP, WEATHER, WIND SPEEDS, AND
WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT
TO THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS EVENING, WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS SUNDAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEVADA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS S-SW15-25G35KT THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLDU REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE
MILE IN THE THICKEST DUST. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE KEKO,
KENV AND KELY TERMINALS. RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND 06Z TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS EXPANDING UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND MOST OF
NORTHERN NEVADA ALL DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN CIGS OF MVFR/IFR LEVELS AT TIMES
BETWEEN SUNDAY 06Z AND MONDAY 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE RED FLAG WARNINGS THAT WERE IN EFFECT THROUGH
11 PM SATURDAY. MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING HAS
PUSHED SURFACE RHS MUCH HIGHER, WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY SEEING
HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE 40-60% RANGE. HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. ZONE 437
CAN EXPECT NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. AND THE SOUTHERN HALVES OF ZONES
469 AND 470 CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ENTIRE REGION, ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING 469, 470 AND 425. MINIMUM
RHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 20% TO 35% WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTING 25 TO 45 MPH. DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND
ONGOING WILDFIRE CONCERNS, RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 11
PM TODAY FOR ZONES 424, 437, 438, 469 AND 470. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INTENSIFY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM DECAYING HURRICANE RACHEL CONTINUES ITS
TREK NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL INTERACT
WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATCH AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF AND MAY RESULT IN ROCK, MUD, AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN AND NEAR
FORMER FIRE BURNED AREAS, STEEP TERRAIN, AND POORLY DRAINED URBAN
AREAS. SOME OF THE FORMER FIRE LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO THE FORMER WARD FIRE, KEARNY FIRE, OXLEY FIRE, SECRET
PASS FIRE, STARR VALLEY FIRE, JONES FIRE, EGBERTS FIRE. OXLEY
FIRE, ANTELOPE FIRE, CALIFORNIA CREEK FIRE, AND MASTER FIRE.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF ONE AND A HALF
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 50, NORTHEAST
TO PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NVZ031-033>035-037>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR NVZ033-035-040-041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86/96
HYDRO...86
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