283
FXUS65 KLKN 120754
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1254 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WHITE PINE, NORTHERN NYE,
SOUTHERN LANDER/EUREKA, AND ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 5 AM THIS
MORNING DUE TO A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
* MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ARE
PROJECTED TO RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAINFALL BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO AROUND 5500
FEET ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY SUMMITS AND VALLEYS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A HALF INCH OF SNOW.
* DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE UPPER LOW THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE RACHEL AND ITS MOISTURE WILL SIT ATOP THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS IN PLACE AND PRODUCING YET
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH MAY FALL AS SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES DROP. MOST SNOW WILL BE FOUND AT HIGH ELEVATIONS,
HOWEVER VALLEYS IN EASTERN NEVADA COULD WAKE UP TO ABOUT A QUARTER
INCH OF SNOW ON TUESDAY. ANY VALLEY SNOW WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST TUESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE FROM THE LOW 50S TO THE UPPER 60S BY THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL
ALSO BE THE FINAL DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH DRY WEATHER AND
CONTINUED WARMING EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUING
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATION
TOTALS AND SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BEYOND TUESDAY. THE ONLY CHANGES
MADE TO THE NBM OUTPUT WAS TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THE REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KWMC, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS TODAY, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ADDITIONALLY, THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KEKO, KENV, KELY
AND KTPH. SHOWERS LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AT
KELY AROUND 04Z TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ZONE 437. FOR MOST OF THE REST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE
TODAY, ALONG WITH A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. COLDER TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THESE AREAS. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOW, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN,
POOR DRAINAGE, OR RECENT FIRE SCARS. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 5 AM THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
NVZ031-033>035-037>041.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
NVZ033-035-040-041.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
HYDRO...96
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