037
FXUS65 KLKN 181714
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1014 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AND SUNDAY
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA
THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FARTHER NORTH, IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE THAT ROBUST, RESULTING IN LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF COVERAGE, A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON SATURDAY,
JULY 18TH, 2026:
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 44%
LUND - 41%
ELY - 40%
CURRIE - 36%
JACKPOT - 32%
EUREKA - 28%
WELLS - 28%
RUBY LAKE - 27%
WEST WENDOVER - 26%
ELKO - 18%
THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO ALL OF EASTERN NEVADA, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR
SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA ON MONDAY, JULY 20TH, 2026:
ELY - 47%
EUREKA - 45%
LUND - 44%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 43%
CURRIE - 42%
RUBY LAKE - 41%
AUSTIN - 28%
ELKO - 27%
WELLS - 25%
WEST WENDOVER - 23%
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR KELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR KENV, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITY WAS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT ABOUT 15%.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ERRATIC STRONG WINDS 30-40KT.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...87
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