995
FXUS65 KLKN 251858
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1158 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES. MUCH STRONGER WINDS ARE IN STORE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL EACH AFTERNOON BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS ON FRIDAY WILL DRAG A SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE, INCREASED WESTERLY WIND
FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL INFLUENCE SURFACE
FLOW OVER NORTHERN NV FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NV WILL PUSH WIND
SPEEDS TO AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PARENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO
DRAG A SHORTWAVE CLOSER TO THE THE WESTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY AND STRENGTHEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BY
MONDAY MORNING A CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS CA INTO SOUTHERN NV.
MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CREATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EASTERN NV ON
MONDAY AS PW VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 0.5-0.6 INCH RANGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN NYE, WHITE PINE, AND ELKO COUNTIES. FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AVAILABLE MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WHERE
LI'S OF 0 TO -2 WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 350
J/KG. STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH ONLY HIGHEST
PEAKS AND RIDGES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY SEEING ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ON MONDAY. NO MAJOR GRID
EDITS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WILL GUST 30-35KTS AT KWMC,
KBAM, AND KEKO. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 22-25KTS AT
KELY AND KTPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT
KTPH AND KELY WILL RANGE 25-30KTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS ACROSS NORTHERN NV FIRE ZONES
437/438/469/470 FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE 22-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE. MINIMUM FRIDAY AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THESE
LOCATIONS ARE ABOVE CRITERIA SO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425/426/427 WILL RANGE 20-22 MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH. NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECASTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
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