129
FXUS65 KLKN 252117
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 PM PDT MON MAR 25 2019
SYNOPSIS
A MOIST STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD VALLEY RAIN INTO
HUMBOLDT COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY THE
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD, DROPPING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
MOST VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY DUE TO THE FLOW UNDER
AND AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN OR. THIS LOW WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY IN THE COMING DAYS, TO REMAIN OFF THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER,
WITH QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY STILL MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CA AND
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD EVEN AS
THE LOW ITSELF REMAINS OFF THE OREGON COAST.
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE YESTERDAY, THOUGH THEY
DID CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT VALLEY RAIN TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING, WITH A SLOW EASTERLY
PUSH ACROSS HUMBOLDT COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY REACH INTO
LANDER COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY SLOW EASTERLY PROGRESSION
CONTINUES.
STRONG JET ENERGY SPINNING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD
THROUGH CENTRAL NV AND UP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NV ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS CENTRAL NV ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT FOR NOW LOOK TO BE HELD JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNSTABLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NV BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MADE A SLIGHT INCREASE
TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY, ADDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY ALONG
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF ELKO COUNTY TO THE ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTED LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO ALL VALLEY AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER WITH MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
SEEING BETWEEN A DUSTING AND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW BY LATER THURSDAY
MORNING. COLDER ON THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING A DROP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY OF AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL BE OVER THE RUBY
MOUNTAINS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, SO FOR NOW NO
HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD ARE WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
NV WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A LITTLE LIGHTING ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY, AND
THEN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A COOL/MOIST
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND WITH A SHEAR AXIS
PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA INTO SATURDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA FROM EASTERN HUMBOLDT THROUGHOUT ELKO INTO NORTHERN
LANDER/EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF THE
RUBIES AND EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY IN THE SNAKE RANGE AND GREAT
BASIN NATIONAL PARK. OTHERWISE, WEAK RIDGING WILL ALLOW BRIEFLY
DRIER AND WARMER TO RETURN ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL BLENDS ARE
QUICK TO FLATTEN RIDGE AND BRING SHOWERS INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEVADA
TODAY ALLOWING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THIN BKN TO OVC HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
INTERVALS OF SCT TO BKN MID DECKS. A BIT OF A BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO
RISE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KWMC, KELY AND KTPH. BREEZIER
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
KTS AT KELY AND KTPH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VCSH
WAS INCLUDED AT KWMC TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
96/95/95
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