835
FXUS65 KLKN 061930
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1230 PM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
* FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY
* CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING THRU TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS PUSHING THROUGH NEVADA WITH WINDS
STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON AN ALREADY DRY SURFACE WHICH
HAS PROMTPET RED FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL 11 PM
TODAY. SUSTAINED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 10%. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A
WEST/SOUTHWEST TO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER
AS WELL AS DISSIPATING TO LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS STILL A
LOW CHANCE (BELOW 10%) FOR SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH BEST POTENTIAL OVER WHITE PINE
COUNTY AND ELKO COUNTY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES STARTING TO ENTER OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO 50S WITH PARTS OF NORTHERN NEVADA
ALONG THE STATE BORDER DROPPING INTO THE 30S.
TOMORROW, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
THE FRONT HAS PASSED OVER NEVADA, WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE DAY
PRIOR BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS UP TO 15-20 MPH. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION, 60S NORTH OF I-80.
MONDAY, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEVADA IN THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH SUSTAINED WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH, AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-40 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL NEVADA AND EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WINDS WITH
DRY SURFACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 10% WILL PROMPT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM.
CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN IN THE EVENING HAS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE
TO WELL ABOVE THRESHOLDS AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
STATE WITH THE PASSING FRONT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
WITH NORTHERN NEVADA (MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR) SEEING A
40-50% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN UP TO 0.01 WITH A 20% PROBABILITY OF
SEEING UP TO 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN. SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRDIOR,
EUREKA HAS A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER THE REST
OF US-50 CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL NEVADA SEE LESS THAN 10% CHANCE
WHICH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVE
ACROSS THE STATE AS HUMIDITY LEVELS RISE ABOVE 15% WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN JUST BEFORE THE COLD FRONT IN THE 70S TO
80S.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD OVER
NEVADA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S.
REST OF THE WEEK, FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT EACH
DAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SECOND COLD FRONT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. NO CHANGES TO THE
GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES OVER WITH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10-20 KTS, GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS. STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE BLDU CONDITIONS AT
TERMINALS. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT FROM WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND DISSIPATE TO LIGHTER SPEEDS
BELOW 10 KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KENV STAYING ABOVE 10-15 KTS.
BUILD UP IN CLOUDS WITH CIG LEVELS BETWEEN FL100-150 OVER THE
EASTERN TERMINALS AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH A 10%
CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
NEAR KELY, KEKO AND KENV, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME AND WILL KEEP DRY THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONG GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 30-40
MPH WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 10% AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER
NEVADA. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING FOR
ALL FIRE ZONES. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY (10% OR LESS) FOR A
DRY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE BEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE WITHIN ZONES 425, 469 AND 470. AT THIS TIME, THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OMITED FROM THE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE
REMAIN LOW FOR THE SCENARIO TO OCCUR. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY TO
A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER. FAIR WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT BREEZES. A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA MONDAY AND BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES,
WHILE CENTRAL ZONES REMAIN DRY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WIND INCREASE WITH DRY CONDITIONS OF MIN RH
BELOW 10% THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ZONES 425, 426, 427, AND 470 FOR MONDAY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM.
BY THE EVENING, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS RH VALUES
INCREASE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH WINDS DISSIPATING ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES OVER.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM PDT TODAY FOR
NVZ424-425-426-427-437-438-469-470.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THROUGH 11 PM PDT MONDAY
FOR NVZ425-426-427-470.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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