112
FXUS65 KLKN 091925
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1225 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2022
SYNOPSIS
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SILVER STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS PRESENT ACROSS HUMBOLDT, NORTHERN NYE,
LANDER, AND EUREKA COUNTIES TODAY AND ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTIVE MONSOON WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS
PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS
AIDED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE OREGON COAST. FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA. SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH FLASH FLOODING THREAT
CONTINUING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN NYE COUNTY TO HUMBOLDT
COUNTY. THIS CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE AS THE PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES CLOSER TO
THE COAST AND FURTHER NORTHWARD. SIMILARLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE VALUES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT IN EASTERN NV
WEDNESDAY. THIS ONCE AGAINST IS A CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING AND
FOR STRONGER STORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE WINDS AND HAIL. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV FOR THURSDAY. THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
BUT STILL ABNORMALLY HIGH. SO THE FLOODING THREAT ON THURSDAY IS
NOT AS HIGH AS TODAY OR WEDNESDAY BUT STILL PRESENT. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY TO THURSDAY AND
WEAKLY GUSTY. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY GET OVERSHADOWED BY THE
EXPECTED STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ALONG WITH ELEVATED SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY RISE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS A GIVEN WITH THE EXCEPTIONAL AMOUNT OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 IN MANY VALLEYS TODAY
AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER OVERALL WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE
COOLEST DAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
THE SUMMER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE POSITIONED IN SUCH A WAY
AS TO KEEP STREAMING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEVADA. PWATS DO
CALM DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE VERY HIGH ANOMALOUS VALUES OF THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS THOUGH. STILL, THEY LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO
INITIATE MAINLY WET STORMS, WITH PERHAPS SOME WET/DRY MIXES ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE MAIN STORM CLUSTERS. HUMBOLDT COUNTY LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY DRY, HOWEVER, AND OVERALL STORMS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD
AS RECENTLY; MORE OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VARIETY. HIGHS
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 80'S, EXCEPT FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY WHICH WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S EACH DAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. WINDS WILL STAY SEASONALLY
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION. ALL TAF SITES COULD SEE RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO AROUND 40KTS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BRINGING POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP IS AT KWMC.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ACROSS NEVADA AS AN STRONG MONSOON IMPACTS THE REGION.
WET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SILVER STATE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH FLOODING REMAINING A CONCERN FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN VALLEY AREAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. RECENT AND EXPECTED WETTING RAINFALL WILL FURTHER
MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MONSOON PUSH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE STATE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS VERY HIGH TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1" TO 1.25" OR GREATER. THIS WOULD
PLACE THIS MOISTURE IN THE TOP 10 TO 1% FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS HIGH WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL FORCING
PROVIDED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING WILL BE LOWER IN AREAS OF HIGH RUNOFF SUCH AS
CANYONS, ROCKY AREAS, BURN SCARS, AND AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING IN CREEK BEDS OR NORMALLY
DRY ARROYOS CAN OCCUR FAR FROM THE SOURCE AS WATER FLOWS
DOWNSTREAM. IF FLOODING IS ENCOUNTERED TURN AROUND AND DON'T
DROWN. FLOOD WATERS CAN EASILY DESTROY ROADS AND SWEEP AWAY BOTH
PEOPLE AND VEHICLES. FLOOD WATERS CAN HIDE DANGEROUS DEBRIS SUCH A
LOGS AND BOULDERS. REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL POLICE OR FIRE WHEN
IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NYE,
HUMBOLDT, LANDER, AND EUREKA COUNTIES TO THIS EVENING. ANOTHER FLOOD
WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EVENING FOR NE NYE, LANDER,
EUREKA, ELKO, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST
HUMBOLDT RANGE-SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO
COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY-SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY.
99/90/90/99
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