480
FXUS65 KLKN 212229
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
229 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE WESTERN U.S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATON FORECAST PRIMARILY OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. STRONGER PUSH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW FORECAST. PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS THRU THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MODEST COLD FRONT EJECTING FROM A BROAD
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA SKIRTS NORTHWEST NEVADA THIS
EVENING BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS
RESIDE BETWEEN 7000 AND 7500 FEET TONIGHT AND LITTLE ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH WILL BE
PRESENT UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
RESIDE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED SUNDAY WITH THE BROAD LOW REMAINING IN
PLACE NEAR ALASKA AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION. UPPER FORCING MECHANISMS KEEP GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SKIRTING NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL
FORCING WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO VALLEY LOCATIONS AS WELL.
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS THOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, ABOVE
7000 OR 7500 FEET, ON SUNDAY. VALLEY RAIN TOTALS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WILL MOSTLY BE AROUND 0.10” WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OBSERVING BETWEEN 0.10” TO 0.25+”. ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA WILL BE MORE MODEST. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AGAIN GUST
AROUND 15 MPH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RESIDE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO
LOW 50S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
MONDAY MORNING WILL SEE A CONTINUED WIND DOWN OF WHAT WILL BE A
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MIX OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON GOING ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN WHITE PINE,
LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END
BY MONDAY EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE RANGE PEAKS OF THE RUBIES AND
JARBIDGE WHERE AN 1” TO 2” OF SNOW COULD FALL. A BRIEF BREAK WILL
TAKE PLACE BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING TO MID MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIKE MONDAY’S WITH A MIX OF VALLEY
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY, COLD AIR
WILL BE LACKING, LIMITING ANY VALLEY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LIMITED TO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CHRISTMAS EVE. SO SANTA MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH
FAVORABLE ICING CONDITIONS AS HE VISITS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
HUMBOLDT VALLEY BUT IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR ELY AND EUREKA AND
WELLS. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RUN UP TO 0.10” OF RAIN FOR THE
VALLEYS, UP TO 0.20” OF WATER WHICH INCLUDES UP TO 1’ OF SNOW FOR
THE PASSES AND ROADWAY SUMMITS, AND UP TO 2” TO 5” OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. FROM MID MORNING CHRISTMAS DAY TO MID MORNING ON
BOXING DAY (26TH) THERE WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK BREAK IN THE ACTION
BEFORE THE MAIN EVENT FINALLY BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AS A
STRONG PACIFIC UPPER LOW EJECTS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND THE SECOND FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE. THAT BAD NEWS IS THAT
CONSIDERING HOW THE MODELS TRACK WITH THESE SHORTWAVES, CENTRAL
NV MAY MISS OUT WITH NEEDED PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER ISSUE WILL BE
TEMPERATURE WISE WITH THE PACIFIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR AREA BELOW 6500 FEET. WITH THESE ISSUES IN MIND TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE SYSTEMS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA TOTAL RAIN AND
SNOW AMOUNTS RUN FROM A TRACE TO 0.05” OF WATER WITH 1” TO 2” OF
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF NV LOOK A
LOT BETTER OVERALL, FOR THE VALLEYS CURRENT TREND INDICATE 0.05”
TO 0.40” OF LIQUID WHICH WILL INCLUDE UP TO 1” OF SNOW. THE PASSES
AND ROADWAY SUMMITS WILL SEE SEVERAL CHANGEOVERS TO PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND BACK AGAIN, END OF SUNDAY TOTALS LOOK
TO RUN BETWEEN 0.25” TO 0.65” OF LIQUID, WHICH WILL INCLUDE ABOUT
1” TO 4” OF SNOWFALL. THE MOUNTAINS (ABOVE 7000 FEET) LOOK TO SEE
MOSTLY SNOW, BUT CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE ABOUT 0.50” TO 1.50” OF
LIQUID, WHICH INCLUDES A 4 DAY SNOWFALL OF 6” TO 18”. TEMPERATURES
WILL START ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TEMPERATURES TUMBLE A BIT IN THE THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
UPPER 20S. NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW
30S. WINDS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS PEAKING AT 10 MPH TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH TUESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SATURDAY. BETWEEN THOSE DAYS WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AT 5 MPH TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CEILINGS FOR KWMC, KBAM, AND KEKO WILL BE DROPPING THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
WITH CEILINGS STARTING AT 25KFT FALLING BELOW 10KFT BY 08Z
SUNDAY, KELY WILL REACH 10KFT CEILINGS BY 18Z SUNDAY. VCSH AND
-SHRA LOOK TO START ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY 12 Z SUNDAY WITH
-SHRASN SHOWERS STARTING FOR KELY BY 21Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THIS EVENING TO BREEZY OUT OF THE SW AT 5KT TO 15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
92/98/98
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