093
FXUS65 KLKN 161921
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1221 PM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
* COOLING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
* STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NE NEVADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
* OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PUSHING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PUSH MUCH COOLER AIR INTO NEVADA WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW EXPECTED TO BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AND EXPECTED
TO REACH BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MID-WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN
THE WEATHER GRADIENTS THAT WILL AID IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS OVER
THE WEEKEND. NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH. BY TOMORROW, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGER WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-35 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-55 MPH.
RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOWING AN INCREASING TREND FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODELS
ARE STILL SPLIT ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AS SOME MODELS SHOW ONLY 0.3 INCHES. THE TRACK OF THE
STORM NOW HAS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH HIGHER VALUES EXPECTED OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY, WITH
PROBABILITIES OF UP TO 75-95% OF SEEING MORE THAN 0.05-0.1 INCHES
OF RAIN (MORE THAN 0.2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR WHITE PINE COUNTY).
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE ALSO TRENDED UPWARDS WITH A 20% CHANCE
ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NORTHERN NEVADA,
PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS SNOW REACHING THE VALLEYS AS SNOW
LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT, YET SEE SLIGHT WARMING SUNDAY
WITH SNOW LEVELS INCREASING BACK UP AROUND 5500 FEET, THEN
DROPPING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AROUND 4000 FEET. CENTRAL NEVADA WILL
HAVE SNOW LEVELS HIGHER, STARTING AROUND 8000 FEET, DROPPING TO
AROUND 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT THEN BACK TO AROUND 7000 FEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW LEVELS DROP BELOW 5000 FEET AS
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE VALLEYS (UP TO AN
INCH IN NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY ALONG SR-225 AND US-93), WITH PASSES
AND SUMMITS UP TO 1-2 INCHES. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE UP TO 4-8 INCHES
OF SNOW WITH RUBY MOUNTAINS AND SNAKE RANGE SEEING UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOW.
MONDAY, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD OUT OF NEVADA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE 60S AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYS
OVER THE STATE BUT IS EXPECTED TO SEE A WARMING TREND. BY
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S WITH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REACHING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70S TO
80S. NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE
PATTERN THAT WILL ENTER INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, HOWEVER
DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL BE
WHICH MAY CHANGE THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE LOW AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF COOLING
TEMPERATURES TRENDS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT FREEZING
THIS WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS PWAT
VALUES REMAIN LOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
LATE-WEEK. ADJUSTED WINDS IN NBM GRIDS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE
TIGHTNING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
AVIATION
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-30KTS WITH THE STRONGEST OF WINDS
MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. CLOUD LEVELS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOWEST CIG LEVELS MAINTAINING AROUND
FL080-FL100. OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNINGS, CIG LEVELS DROP
DOWN TO FL030-FL050 AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. VCSH CONDITIONS STARTING OVER THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING, AND REACHING THE CENTRAL TERMINALS BY
THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINANT, HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE CHANCE OF -SHSN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
WARM WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS UNTIL -SHSN
CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT DUE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
FIRE WEATHER
LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG TO
GUSTY SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA WITH A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST INITIALLY, BUT A
STRONG FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AT 20
TO 35 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE DECLINE AS HIGH SUNDAY HOVER
IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL BE A 50% TO 70% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR EASTERN NEVADA, WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND NW FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH LIGHT TO BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO REACH BACK INTO
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S BY NEXT SUNDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ030-031-035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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