224  
FXUS65 KLKN 180745  
AFDLKN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV  
1245 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 1248 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
* LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN  
HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  
MONDAY MORNING  
 
* STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
 
* COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
 

 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1248 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
SKIES ARE CLEAR TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.  
GRIDDED FORECAST IS ON TRACK, NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.  
 

 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
 
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: WEATHER REMAINS BENIGN TONIGHT UNDER  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES RESIDING AROUND  
FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS PUTS LOWS IN THE MID  
20S TO MID 30S. SATURDAY, SYNOPTIC SET UP DEFINED BY A CUT OFF  
UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE  
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO  
THE PACNW FROM THE NORTHWEST. TROF AND COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS  
SOUTHEAST AND CLIP NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THIS COLD  
FRONT, PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS. THOUGH  
GIVEN AROUND A 10% PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME, WILL  
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED  
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA, TURNING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. POST FRONTAL, COOLER  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ELKO  
COUNTY, AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL  
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES COOLER MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE  
WESTERN U.S. TUESDAY. THOUGH THE AFORE MENTIONED CUT OFF UPPER  
LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO  
PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY.  
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD  
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SERVICE AREA, THOUGH NUMERICAL MODEL  
SOLUTIONS ARE NOT RULING OUT ENTIRELY THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT  
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY RESIDE LESS  
THAN 10% HOWEVER. FAIR WEATHER INDICATED THE LATTER PORTION OF  
THE WEEK, THOUGH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS  
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN  
NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MODERATE FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE IN COOLER WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WEDNESDAY REGARDING  
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. OTHERWISE MINIMAL  
DEVIATION FROM THE NBM FORECAST.  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS  
IN THE FORECAST AND AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT ALL  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT  
WEEK, AND NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AS WE MOVE CLOSER  
TO THE WINTER SEASON. THAT SAID, SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE GUSTY  
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN NV BORDER, INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES  
437, 438, 469, AND 470 AS A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE SILVER STATE FROM  
THE NORTHWEST. GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH  
WINDS SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS  
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION RESIDES AROUND 10%. MINIMUM AFTERNOON  
RH RESIDES BETWEEN 25% AND 45% SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN  
NEVADA. WEATHER WILL BE COOL AND FAIR TUESDAY, THOUGH A  
DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE  
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES 424, 427, 425, AND 426.  
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS LESS THAN 10% FOR THIS EVENT  
HOWEVER.  
 

 
 
   
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...92/86  
AVIATION...99  
FIRE WEATHER...92  
 
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