573
FXUS65 KLKN 150815
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
115 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CLIPS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
* TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER SUNDAY BUT WARMING WILL RE-COMMENCE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
* NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION INTO
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 108 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2026
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL. NO UPDATES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN ADDITION, MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW THIS
FEATURE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUITE
RAPID WARM UP FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON TO RANGE IN THE
50S AND 60S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEVADA. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
THE RAPID WARMING COMMENCES ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CIRCULATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA BUT OTHER
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS AND BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. QUIET, CALM CONDITIONS
WILL REIGN DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
ON TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HEIGHTS
WILL RISE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AS A RESULT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
AREA ARE ALREADY EXCEEDING THE RECORDS FOR THE DAY FOR THE FIVE
CLIMATE SITES. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 75 DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA FOR TUESDAY:
AUSTIN – 35%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN – 100%
ELKO – 70%
ELY – 50%
EUREKA – 20%
JACKPOT – 60%
JARBIDGE – 0%
OWYHEE – 60%
RUTH – 0%
SPRING CREEK – 35%
TONOPAH – 95%
WELLS – 50%
WEST WENDOVER – 75%
WILDHORSE RES – 0%
WINNEMUCCA – 100%
IT WILL BE ANOTHER CLEAR AND QUIET NIGHT TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
AND 40S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODELS SHOW THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES TO 25 MPH. AGAIN,
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE SEVERAL DEGREES GREATER THAN
PREVIOUS SET DAILY RECORDS. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY:
AUSTIN – 25%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN – 100%
ELKO – 65%
ELY – 50%
EUREKA – 25%
JACKPOT – 45%
JARBIDGE – 2%
OWYHEE – 45%
RUTH – 1%
SPRING CREEK – 45%
TONOPAH – 80%
WELLS – 65%
WEST WENDOVER – 65%
WILDHORSE RES – 0%
WINNEMUCCA – 100%
IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ALMOST SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURE-WISE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS ONLY COOL TO THE 40S AND 50S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER.
A REPEAT IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS
TO 20 MPH. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR MORE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH READINGS IN THE 70S AND 80S. HERE ARE SOME PROBABILITIES FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 80 DEGREES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THURSDAY:
AUSTIN – 45%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN – 100%
ELKO – 75%
ELY – 80%
EUREKA – 50%
JACKPOT – 60%
JARBIDGE – 15%
OWYHEE – 65%
RUTH – 15%
SPRING CREEK – 70%
TONOPAH – 97%
WELLS – 75%
WEST WENDOVER – 80%
WILDHORSE RES – 0%
WINNEMUCCA – 90%
AT THIS TIME, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING UNDER THE
CONTROL OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH MEANS ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE. READINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. AFTERNOON BREEZES TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 18KTS GUSTING 30KTS PERSIST AT KENV
SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE REMAINING TAF TERMINALS, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS MOST OF THE TIME, THOUGH
CAN NOT RULE OUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS AS THIS SYSTEMS
EXITS THE REGION. SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASE AT
KELY AND KTPH, WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT AROUND 25KTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...96
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