637
FXUS65 KLKN 210828
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
128 AM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HISTORICALLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT TUESDAY
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OF WYOMING AND COLORADO. MEANWHILE AN INVERTED
TROUGH IS UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE, THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST INTO ARIZONA
TUESDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER NEVADA WITH NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LEADING TO A HIGH CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE HEAVY
RAINFALL, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS STORM MOTION
ALLOWS FOR SLOW MOVING AND TRAINING OF CELLS OVER ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ELKO, EUREKA,
LANDER, N NYE, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY, THE TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH INTO UTAH, SETTING UP ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH NOT AS ACTIVE AS TUESDAY. BY
THURSDAY THE TROUGH GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE US. THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING TO THE SW
AS WELL, BAD NEWS IS THIS WILL CUT OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW FOR A
WHILE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP WHILE STORM CHANCE DWINDLE
OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ENDING MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
THERE MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES FOR NORTHEASTERN NEVADA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY
OF KEKO, KELY, KTPH, KBAM, AND KWMC THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS NEAR 45
KNOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...84
FIRE WEATHER...84
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