856
FXUS65 KLKN 101916
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1216 PM PDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCES WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY, BEGINNING SUNDAY AND
PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY EVENING
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN US THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE RESULT OF A
BLOCKING PATTERN. AS A RESULT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR TO, OR EXCEED
RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS REACH THE
LOWER 90S, WITH A 75% TO 100% CHANCE OF HIGHS ABOVE 85 DEGREES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY
WESTERLY AT 10 MPH TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE
PASSAGE OF A UPPER TROUGH THAT WOULD KICK THE RIDGE EAST, AND MAY
BRING A 10%-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AS WELL AS, PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY.
EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIVERGE AS THE EC FAVORS A
WEAKER TROUGH THAT IS FARTHER NORTH, AND MUCH FASTER, SHOWING THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. THE GFS SOLUTIONS
HAVE CONTINUED TO FAVOR A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IS FARTHER
SOUTH WITH ITS TRACK, WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
THURSDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER PATTERN HAS
DEGRADED AFTER WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONGER TERM, BUT AVE WENT AHEAD AND
ENHANCED THE COOLING TREND FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
BY A FEW DEGREES, AS WELL AS RAISED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TO
ABOUT 15% TO 25%. WHICH MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AND DRAWN FURTHER
SOUTH IF TRENDS CONSOLIDATE IN A WETTER SOLUTION. AS FOR NOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL BACK INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 70S, WITH A
FEW 80S ACROSS N NYE COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT LIGHTER TOO OUT OF THE WEST TO NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUST
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
HEAT STARTING SATURDAY, AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES. WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GENERALLY LIGHT TO BREEZY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE WEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WARMING TEMPERATURE ARE FORECAST TO RUN 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, REACHING NEAR TO, OR EXCEEDING RECORD HIGHS, SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, WILL COMBINE WITH THE
TEMPERATURES TO DROP HUMIDITY LEVELS TO THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE EVEN
STRONGER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A UPPER TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NORTH. WEST TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN A COOLING TREND THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NW AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...92
FIRE WEATHER...98
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