843
FXUS65 KLKN 092151
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 PM PDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THIS EVENING
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
* SLOW COOLING TREND EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS SHOWING A FAIRLY
ACTIVE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGAN LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF US HIGHWAY 50 AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY
AND NORTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTY. STORM MOTION WITH THE CELLS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE CLOCKING IN AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS. THE CELLS IN CENTRAL NEVADA ARE OF THE MIX WET/DRY
VARIETY BUT WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WET BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE CELLS FURTHER NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ON
THE DRY SIDE DUE TO A WARMER AIR MASS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS ARE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLY CREATING NEW
FIRE STARTS, BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL, AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH. IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE THREATS, THE HEAT HEADLINES WILL ALSO
CONTINUE FOR ALL THE AREA THROUGH 11PM TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS
ZONE 033, WHERE THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
11PM MONDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN ITS LOCATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
WILL KEEP A FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. A
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THAT WILL SHUNT SOME OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EAST, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS
WILL BRING A DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH,
THOUGH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL NEVADA AS
EVIDENT BY THE DECREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE NORTH.
HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL BE A DEGREE OR THREE COOLER WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WITH SOME ACTIVITY
REACHING SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE THE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. LOOK FOR
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.
BY TUESDAY, ALL MODELS SHOW THE SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS POSITION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL AGAIN BE
CONFINED TO THOSE LOCALES ALONG THE US HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN COOL BY SEVERAL
DEGREES WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.
ON WEDNESDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FIFTY TO SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WPC IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS
TIME WITH AN AREA EXPANSION NORTHWARD OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE LOOKING AT THIS EVENT AS IT UNFOLDS
FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTIONS AT
THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND SEVEN TO 14 KNOTS. HIGHS IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER COOL WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DAILY PATTERN
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO COOL. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 80S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NEAR TERM FORECAST MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED TO THE POP,
WEATHER, WIND SPEED, AND WIND GUST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR FIRE
WEATHER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE BUMPING UP POP CHANCES IN CENTRAL NEVADA. IN
THE SHORT TERM, SIMILAR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
ELEMENTS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A COOLING TREND AS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL NEVADA WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR IN THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY MODERATE FOR
WEDNESDAY'S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. VCTS CHANCES REMAIN THIS EVENING AT KELY,
KEKO, AND KENV. STRONG GUSTY CONVECTIVE WIND GUST OF 45KT CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AT THE ABOVE LISTED
TERMINALS. CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW WITH VCTS AT KELY
WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS KWMC-KBAM-
KEKO-KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW DUE
TO WEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AS LOW AS SEVEN PERCENT. CURRENT RADAR IS DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL NEVADA (STORMS APPEARING MORE ON THE WET SIDE), MAINLY
ACROSS FIRE ZONES 425 AND 427, WITH STORMS MORE ISOLATED AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER IN NATURE ACROSS 469 AND 470. STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED IN THE CENTRAL ZONES TOMORROW, INCLUDING
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 470) AND TUESDAY, WITH A DISTINCT RAMPING
UP OF CONVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH MOISTURE NORTH.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ031-034-035
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ030-036>041
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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