149
FXUS65 KLKN 010929
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
129 AM PST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM PST THU JAN 1 2026
* POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
* WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
TRENDING HIGHER INTO THE WEEKEND
* VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
* DRY ON FRIDAY, WITH MORE SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 115 AM PST THU JAN 1 2026
RAIN SHOWERS REACHED TONOPAH, ELY AND WINNEMUCCA EARLIER IN THE
EVENING, AND JUST BEGAN IN ELKO AT AROUND 1 AM. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SNOWFALL IN
SOME VALLEY AND SUMMIT LOCATIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SO TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE
FOR THE SILVER STATE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND
WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPACT THE REGION. A VERY MERIDIONAL PATTERN
PUSHES THE RIDGE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
IMMEDIATELY REPLACING THE RIDGE IS A SHORTWAVE RIDING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IN A LARGER ULT. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE
SOUTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE WAVE TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS A WRINKLE OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY, AS WELL AS ISOLATED SPOTS IN HUMBOLDT
COUNTY ARE SPORTING SOUNDING PROFILES THAT CONTAIN WARM NOSES NEAR
THE SURFACE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE NEW YEAR. BASED ON THE
EARLY MORNING TIMING AND LACK OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS SO FAR
THIS SEASON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FREEZING
RAIN IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ALONG I-80, US-93 AND LOCAL ROADS
THAT WILL IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
FORCING AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY (PW'S OF
0.55-0.65 INCHES) WILL MAKE THIS NEW YEARS SYSTEM A WET ONE FOR
THE REGION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 INCHES WILL BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. CENTRAL NV RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
0.10-0.25 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NORTHERN NV SEEING
POTENTIALLY MORE AS AMOUNTS WILL RANGE 0.2-0.5 INCHES.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM ACTIVE WEATHER THOUGH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY EVENING. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
AS A LARGER TROUGH BEGINS TO ENCROACH ON THE GREAT BASIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY THOUGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ISN'T QUITE AS ROBUST WITH THIS TROUGH
THANKS TO SOME SIERRA SCOURING. QPF PROBS AND STORM TOTALS BEAR
THIS OUT THOUGH LATEST MODEL RUNS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SNOW AND
AREAL COVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PARENT TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY WITH BRISK ZONAL FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
AREA BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN LIGHT
WINDS, VALLEY RAIN, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ICE WAS
ADDED TO THE WX GRIDS AS UP TO 40% PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NV, SPECIFICALLY HUMBOLDT, AND EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTIES.
AVIATION
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA THE REST OF TONIGHT AND THROUGH THIS THURSDAY EVENING.
MOST PRECIPITATION AT TAF SITES IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN, HOWEVER
SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE PERIODS OF MIXED RAIN AND OR SNOW.
FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES AT KENV. CIGS AND VIZ WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED TO
MVFR LEVELS IN PRECIPITATION, AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ANY MODERATE OR
HEAVY SHOWERS. LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
TAPER OFF, THOUGH FOG MAY BE A CONCERN IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THIS MORNING
NVZ033-038-039.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
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