704
FXUS65 KLKN 082131
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
231 PM PDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON. COVERAGE THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE UTAH BORDER
* TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THIS WEEK
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: RADAR HAS SHOWN SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ELKO COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHEST IN THIS AREA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF TWO-THIRDS TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. CAPE VALUES OF 400 TO 700J/KG
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT 0-3KM BULK SHEAR (30-40KT) AND 0-3KM
HELICITY OF 100-200M2/SEC2 ARE PROMOTING SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AREA. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. OTHER LOCALES ARE SEEING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
BY TOMORROW, DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR EASTERN
NEVADA. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HEIGHTS. THE
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF ADDITIONAL WARMING ON
SATURDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ELKO, EUREKA, AND ELY MAY
BE MET DURING THIS TIME. THIS IS LEADING TO MINOR TO MODERATE
HEATRISK IMPACTS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH THE
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING SUNDAY. THOUGH SUNDAY
COULD SEE A DEGREE OR TWO OF COOLING, THE MAIN HEAT IMPACTS
REMAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LARGE AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE, WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THE POP, WEATHER, SKY AND WIND
GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST DUE TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING
LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON HEATRISK FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
EXPECT STORMS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH
KEKO AND KENV TERMINALS WITH VCTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT
ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 22KT
POSSIBLE
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KEKO DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 438/469/470 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
INCREASING HEATRISK BY THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS ALL
FIRE WEATHER ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO TRIPLE DIGITS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 4 AND 8%. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEADLINE FIRE PRODUCTS. LASTLY, MODELS
ARE SHOWING A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE, WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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