336
FXUS65 KLKN 062042
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
142 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED (10-15% CHANCE) SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
WHITE PINE COUNTY.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
* POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BRINGING COOLER MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WEAK INSTABILITY OF UP TO 250 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS EASTERN WHITE
PINE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN
BELOW 10%. HI-RES GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TOO QUICK IN EXITING
MOISTURE FROM THE WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL
UTAH. REMNANT MOISTURE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP AND DEVELOPING
CUMULUS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF US 93 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED
POPS IN THESE AREAS FOR MENTIONABLE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED WARMTH WITH RECORD
TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CLIMATE SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY. ELY SEES THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR RECORD HIGHS TODAY
AND THURSDAY AT AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE RECORD.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL CUTOFF AND DIG
SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST, WITH A SECONDARY AND STRONGER
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON ITS HEELS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO SATURDAY WITH
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH MAX 24-HR GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WITH A 35% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN ELKO AND A 75% CHANCE IN ELY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASE POPS IN EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR
LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER, WETTER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS IN
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS INTERACT WITH
THE WETTER CLUSTER SCENARIOS THAT COMBINE THE TROUGHS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN BRINGING GREATER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IF
THE DEEPER TROUGH OUTCOME PANS OUT WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW
10K FT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE.
AVIATION
VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GREATEST
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND 15% AT KELY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A MIX OF ISOLATED WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ZONE 425 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT 15% OR LESS. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING
WEATHER SYSTEM.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...84
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