558
FXUS65 KLKN 210814
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
114 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THROUGH SUNDAY
* HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ABOUT TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
* NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH, BRINGING RETURNING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES
* STRONG WINDS RETURN OVER NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM A PASSING
COLD FRONT
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2026
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
BUILDUP OF MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA DUE TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE STATE. THIS WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO FORM TO GIVE PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT BUILDUP
OF MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THAT MAY LEAD TO INCREASING
CLOUDS WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA. PROBABILITIES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME AS
THE BUILDUP IN MOISTURE HAPPENS FOR A SHORT PERIOD IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A 30% CHANCE OF SEEING UP TO 0.04 INCHES OF RAIN.
BY TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER EXPECTED
TO IMPACT NEVADA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL
PUSH INTO THE SILVER STATE, BRINGING RETURNING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO DROP BY TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWESTERN NEVADA, MAKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 60S IN AREAS SUCH AS DENIO, WHILE
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
70S. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME WITH
CHANCES BETWEEN 15-25% ACROSS THE REGION, MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVING SOUTHEAST,
PRODUCING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF VALLEY RAIN UP TO 0.05-0.1 INCHES
OF RAIN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 8000 FEET, AND REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET
DURING THE EVENT. HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM THE PASSING FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS REACHING
UP TO 30-45 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LASTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE LEAVING CALMER
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEHIND, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
IMPACTING NEVADA ON TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW
CONFIDENCE OF PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.
AVIATION
DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NV INCLUDING KTPH AND KELY WHERE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND FL100. OTHERWISE PERIODS OF SCT-BKN
FL200 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV TODAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY 10-15G15-30KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH IDAHO TODAY WILL CLIP EASTERN NV,
THE RESULT OF WHICH WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
AND GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST OF FWZS 425 426 AND 427 INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WHILE NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THERE IS A 5%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND A 10-15% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THESE THREE CENTRAL NV ZONES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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