426
FXUS65 KLKN 081813
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1113 AM PDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* STRONG WIND GUSTS IN CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY
* COOLING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE TWELVE TO FOURTEEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WESTERN CANADA CYCLONE
ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY. AS
A RESULT, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
DRAW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RACHEL
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA, RESULTING IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A FLOOD
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. THE MAJORITY OF THIS RAIN WILL FALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. HERE ARE PROBABILITIES OF THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FROM 5 AM PDT SUNDAY, OCTOBER 11TH,
2026 UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY, OCTOBER 12TH, 2026:
ELY - 70%
ELKO - 60%
SPRING CREEK - 55%
WEST WENDOVER - 55%
WELLS - 55%
CARLIN - 50%
EUREKA - 50%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 25%
TONOPAH - 25%
WINNEMUCCA - 15%
A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
WILL BE SIX TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUB-FREEZING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEYS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL VALUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN CENTRAL NEVADA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A COOLING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO BREEZY FOR ALL TERMINALS
WITH VARIABLE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-SW AT 5KT TO 15 KT WITH A
FEW GUST UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR TO, TO
CRITICAL FOR ZONES 437, 438, 469, AND 470 FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM FORMER HURRICANE RACHEL WHICH WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SATURDAY. FRIDAY WINDS WILL PICK
UP ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES OUT OF THE WEST/SW AT 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 10% TO 20% AND A VERY DRY SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER
WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAVE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 437, 438, 469, AND 470 SATURDAY WILL BE A
CONDITIONAL DAY EVEN AS WINDS LOOK TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS
ABOVE NOTED ZONES. AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE DICTATED BY
TIMING BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH HIGHER RH VALUES FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH AND POST TC RACHEL, VS THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW THE HIGHER RH WILL OUT PACE THE WINDS
KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE AS TIMING CAN STILL CHANGE. SUNDAY
THOUGH WEDNESDAY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LOW AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
NEVADA THAT WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION, AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS LOOK TO
RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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