873
FXUS65 KLKN 300831
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
131 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THRU SUNDAY
* SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND
* WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 119 AM PDT THU APR 30 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES
ARE REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER
CENTRAL CANADA SLOWLY PUSHES EAST, THE SECOND OF A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPSTREAM FLOW OF THE TROF WILL IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY
UNDERWHELMING. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE HAS JOGGED SLIGHTLY EAST COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS
POSITIONING. THIS HAS LEAD TO LESS FORCING (LESS FAVORABLE LI)
AND INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS HAD INDICATED.
THE WARMING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
INCREASING INCREMENTALLY EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV ARE ANTICIPATED BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN WILL FORM AS AN
UPPER CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST SATURDAY. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
IT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH DOWN THE CA COAST. AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH THIS
OPENS THE REGION UP TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE
STRENGTHENING TROF. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ENOUGH FOR
BRISK WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVEN STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY
FOR CENTRAL NV, SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
MONDAY INCREASING VORTICITY AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ISN'T SPORTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE FOR THE AREA SO PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS DON'T
APPEAR VERY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. STRONGER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE
WARMING TREND OCCURRING NOW THRU THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION ARE VERY UNDERWHELMING AND HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS FOR CENTRAL NV ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
IN A SYSTEM NEXT WEEK IMPACTING THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEKO AND KENV HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS 21-03Z WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY IF ANY SHOWERS MOVE ON TERMINAL, BUT WOULD NOT BE LONG
LIVED.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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