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FXUS65 KLKN 020701 AAA
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1201 AM PDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND
EASTERN NYE COUNTIES TODAY
* WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
* POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A 4-CORNERS MONSOON SETUP EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL DRAG A SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WAVE WILL
CARRY ENOUGH FORCING, DESPITE WEAK ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES, TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TODAY. THIS WAVE IS
WORKING WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, SO STORM ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE OF
THE DRY VARIETY ELEVATING FIRE RISK CONCERNS TODAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 90S. WHILE HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOSE SENSITIVE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTION TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESS.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPICTS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC COINCIDING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SET UP IS IN PLACE FOR A
POTENTIAL 4-CORNERS MONSOON EVENT FOR EAST-CENTRAL NV MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE HIGH IS A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH, BUT
IF THE HIGH MIGRATES FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
LIKELIHOOD OF MONSOON IN THE AREA SHOULD INCREASE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CONTINUED
WARMING TREND. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A POSSIBLE MONSOON SETUP
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE 20-22KTS AT
KWMC, KEKO, KELY, KTPH, AND KBAM BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
425/469/470 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY
BETTER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHEN A CHANGEOVER FROM DRY TO WET
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS CONCERNS ABOUT A
HOT/DRY/WINDY SETUP OVER CENTRAL NV TODAY HAVE BEEN RELAXED AS WIND
SPEED VALUES HAVE DECREASED WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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