889
FXUS65 KLKN 300755
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1255 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON
* RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* PERIODS OF RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 0100AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FURTHER BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH
PEAK INTENSITY SATURDAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT EXPECTED IN
ELKO, WINNEMUCCA, ELY, EUREKA, AND TONOPAH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
FACT, WINNEMUCCA IS FORECAST TO TIE THE MONTHLY RECORD MAX
TEMPERATURE OF 100 SET ON MAY 29, 2020 (80% PROBABILITY). HERE ARE
PROBABILITIES OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR
SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY, MAY
31ST, 2025:
WINNEMUCCA - 100%
TONOPAH - 35%
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 96%
ELKO - 75%
CARLIN - 75%
EUREKA - 20%
WEST WENDOVER - 15%
MCDERMITT - 65%
ELY - 5%
SPRING CREEK - 5%
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY FOR HUMBOLDT, NORTHERN
LANDER, NORTHERN EUREKA, AND SOUTHWEST ELKO COUNTIES FROM NOON
UNTIL 8:00 PM PST.
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH INTRODUCES CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVOLUTION FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION
IN THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT EJECTS OUT OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MONDAY. AFTER THIS, ALL CLUSTER SCENARIOS MAINTAIN SOME
FORM OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S.,
THOUGH WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS SETS UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE TREND
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MAIN LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
CLOSER TOWARDS THE ROCKIES WITH RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC, BUT THE GEFS MEMBERS APPEAR TO BE THE
OUTLIER IN LINGERING THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WELL INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE UNSETTLED AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN THE GEFS AND ENS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED CLOSER TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS
RATHER THAN DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S RATHER THAN UPPER 60S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. NO DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BUILD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEVADA INCLUDING THE KELY AND KTPH TERMINALS, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND STORM FREE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KWMC, KBAM, KEKO AND KENV.
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KTPH DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
THE FOCUS SHIFTS FROM DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO HOT TEMPERATURES
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. NEAR RECORD HEAT IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD
HEAT IS EXPECTED IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE WELL BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COOLING TREND IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF RAIN.
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES…
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY
NVZ030-036-038.
DISCUSSION...84
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...99
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