375
FXUS65 KLKN 262019
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
119 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN WHITE PINE,
NORTHEASTERN NYE, AND SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH
11 PM
* STRONG, GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR WHITE PINE AND ELKO
COUNTIES TOMORROW
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* A FEW INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: PASSING COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEVADA WITH RECENT MODELS SHOWING THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM STAYING MORE TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST REGION,
WHILE THE EASTERN HALF WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL STAY MORE TOWARDS WESTERN
NEVADA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 50S TO 60S WHILE EASTERN
NEVADA WILL BE IN THE 70S. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO COME
DOWN WITH ACCUMULATED VALUES BETWEEN 0.2-0.35 INCHES ACROSS THE
VALLEYS FOR HUMBOLDT, LANDER, AND NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY. SNOW
VALUES REMAIN ELEVATED BUT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
THE TOIYABE RANGE IN NORTHWESTERN NYE AND LANDER COUNTIES, WITH
MOUNTAINS SEEING UP TO 6-8 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
BELOW 7000 FEET OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO REACH ALONG HIGHER PASSES AND SUMMITS
NEAR AUSTIN WITH UP TO 0.5 INCHES OF SNOW. EUREKA COUNTY AND
WESTERN ELKO COUNTY ARE SEEING A 20% PROBABILITY OF UP TO 0.05
INCHES. EAST OF THAT, PRECIPITATION VALUES DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM
STALLS FROM GOING EAST DUE TO A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATING
OVER CENTRAL CONUS. THIS LEAVES OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP TO 10-15% TODAY WITH TOMORROW SEEING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES UP TO 15-20% MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
BETWEEN US-50 AND I-80 CORRIDORS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN
ELEVATED AT 15-20 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
NYE, SOUTHERN ELKO, AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. BY THE EVENING, WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHTER ACROSS THE WEST, HOWEVER EASTERN NEVADA STILL
HAS AN 80% PROBABILITY OF SEEING GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT MORE ACROSS
WHITE PINE COUNTY AND INTO ELKO COUNTY WITH A 45% PROBABILITY OF
SEEING GREATER THAN 40-50 MPH GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL IN WESTERN NEVADA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S,
WHILE EASTERN NEVADA BE IN THE 60S TO 70S.
THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION VALUES ARE MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY SEEING A 40-50% CHANCE OF UP TO 0.05-0.1
INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND UP TO 1 INCH OF MOUNTAIN SNOW. WINDS
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 15-20 MPH, GUSTS 30-40
MPH. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH 60S ACROSS THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR 50S IN NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY, AND 70S IN ELKO COUNTY.
FRIDAY, MODELS HAVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND MOVING
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH TOWARDS THE
NORTH LATER IN THE DAY. PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
HIGHER WITH MUCH OF PROBABILITIES MOVING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
SEEING CHANCES OF UP TO 50-70% OF UP TO 0.05 INCHES OF RAIN
(HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.1-0.2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE
NORTHERN STATE BORDER). SNOW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE LOWER WITH UP
TO LESS THAN AN INCH OVER TOIYABE RANGE AND SNOW LEVELS
INCREASING AS WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA.
SATURDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DOES REACH INTO
NEVADA. ACCUMULATIONS FOR RAIN EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH UP TO
50-60% OF SEEING UP TO 0.03 INCHES (0.2 INCHES ALONG JARBIDGE
WILDERNESS AREA). MOUNTAIN SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS
RISE BACK OVER 10,000 FEET AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
PUSHED NORTH OUT OF NEVADA AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S BY TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING MORE OVER WESTERN
NEVADA LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN NEVADA, LOW CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN
NEVADA. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF
NEVADA BY SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY SUNDAY. NO CHANGES TO NBM GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN NEVADA WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-25 KTS, GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 20-40 KTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. MVFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER POSSIBLE FROM BLOWING DUST. THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS DISSIPATE OVER KWMC, KBAM, KTPH, AND
KEKO UP TO 10 KTS, HOWEVER KELY AND KENV ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20-30 KTS, GUSTS
40 KTS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE OVER KWMC AND KBAM TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, GIVING VCSH AND
-SHRA CONDITIONS OVER THE TERMINALS. 10-20% CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
STRONG GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 45-50 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL ZONES TODAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL STALL OVER WESTERN NEVADA, LEAVING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
TODAY OVER WESTERN FIRE ZONES 424, 427, 437 AND PARTS OF 438.
EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20-30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER ZONES 425, 426, EASTERN PARTS OF 427,
AND 470. ALL OTHER ZONES WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 15-25 MPH, GUSTS
25-35 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN FIRE
ZONES AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 15% WITH STRONG WINDS ABOVE 30
MPH, HOWEVER NO RFW ISSUED AS FUEL MOISTURES REMAIN GREEN.
TOMORROW, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20-30 MPH, GUSTS 50 MPH CONTINUE
ACROSS ZONES 425, 470, AND INTO 469 AND 438.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY NVZ031-033>035-039.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ033>035-039-041.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...
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