547
FXUS65 KLKN 220843
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
143 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 5-15% ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON
* UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING 10 TO 20
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
NV, GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR WHERE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WEAK CELL
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A 5 TO 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
NOON AND 5PM PDT OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NYE, SOUTHERN
LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN MOUNTAINS AND PROBABLY
VIRGA OVER ANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 5 TO 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. NBM
HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON LIMITED
TO NW HUMBOLDT AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN LANDER, SOUTHERN EUREKA AND
FAR NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES. EXPECTING INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF
LOW END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN UPCOMING MODEL
RUNS AS SOME MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN 5-15% CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MULTIPLE RUNS. SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON, ANY
STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WOULD BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
LESS THAN FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WEAK INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WITH A 10 TO 20%
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. WARMER THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AT AROUND 8,000
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING TO ABOUT 7,000 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
WEDNESDAY.
STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, MAINLY IN
CENTRAL NEVADA, FROM 10 AM PDT TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT
TUESDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TENDING WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH RESPECT TO GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NBM POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO GET THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV, WHICH NOW MATCHES UP WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ALSO NUDGED CLOUD
COVER UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 5-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT OR IN THE VICINITY
OF KTPH OR KELY HOWEVER.
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEVADA BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 5
TO 15% RANGE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WHERE CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 10
TO 20% RANGE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY. STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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