508
FXUS65 KLKN 170939
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
239 AM PDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH FRIDAY
* HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO
WARM TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY INCREASES CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH ITS CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEVADA
BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
IN THE 90S. THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
BY THURSDAY, ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION
SOMEWHERE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND ALLOW SOME
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SEEP INTO THE THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A HALF-INCH WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH READINGS OF
100-200J/KG. WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR CENTRAL NEVADA. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH,
THOUGH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORM. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S. LOOK FOR STORMS TO EVENTUALLY
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION WHILE A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH POSITIONS ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 300 TO 500J/KG WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
IN NORTHERN NEVADA WITH MODEST INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE NORTH BUT WILL BE STRONGER IN THE
CENTRAL WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40 MPH. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S AND 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WEST, THEN A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE BUT REMAIN RELEGATED TO LOCALES NORTH OF I-80. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT SEVEN TO ELEVEN DEGREES BELOW RECENT
HIGHS AS READINGS TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH. LOOK FOR GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE UPPER RIDGE
RETURNING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S BY MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO
INCLUDE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL NEVADA ON THURSDAY,
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, AND
INCREASE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA ALSO ON FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE NEAR TERM
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
REMAIN LOW ON THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AND THE DRY CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE PICKING UP AFTER 18Z
NW10-20G30KT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 02Z THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEVADA ZONES WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CREATE A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEVADA, BRINGING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425, 426, AND 427. OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH HAVE KEPT THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY, THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND BRING MOISTURE NORTH. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, WINDS AND
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS ARE APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL NEVADA FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
BEAR WATCHING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ON SATURDAY, EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRIES TO REASSERT DOMINANCE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
CONDITIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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