297
FXUS65 KLKN 160821
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
121 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A SLOW COOL DOWN THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
* STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NE NEVADA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
* OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 119 AM PDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SILVER STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, FALLING TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG LATE SEASON UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH
FROM CANADA THROUGH MT/ID SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THIS TROUGH WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN NV AND EXIT CENTRAL NV MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING STRONGER WINDS SUNDAY MORNING LASTING INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS WEST WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N WITH SPEEDS OF 20
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 60S POSSIBLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 0.3 INCHES. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
TROUGH, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF NEVADA IN ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS, BUT
STILL SEE UPWARDS OF 50-70% OF UP TO 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN, WHILE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL START SEEING
SNOW AS SNOW LEVELS DROP BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING
AROUND 4000 FEET. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VALLEYS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH WITH VALUES RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.1 INCHES, WHILE
PASSES AND SUMMITS ALONG EASTERN I-80 AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE,
UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW. JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA, RUBY MOUNTAINS,
AND MOUNTAIN RANGES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY COULD SEE UP TO 1-3
INCHES OF FRESH SNOW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
NV AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN NEVADA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR MOUNTAIN AND PASS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS NW10-15G25KT.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ030-031-035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...86/98
AVIATION...98
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