945
FXUS65 KLKN 111754
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1054 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA EARLY
NEXT WEEK
* MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. RECORD HEAT IS
EXPECTED IN ELKO THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD-TYING HEAT IS ANTICIPATED
IN ELY THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR RECORD HEAT IS EXPECTED IN EUREKA THIS
AFTERNOON. HERE ARE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS
IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY, JULY 11TH, 2026:
BATTLE MOUNTAIN - 97%
WEST WENDOVER - 97%
ELKO - 96%
WINNEMUCCA - 96%
CARLIN - 96%
WELLS - 95%
SPRING CREEK - 85%
ELY - 80%
EUREKA - 80%
HOT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SILVER STATE. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES
SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTI-DAY IMPACTS COULD SPUR TARGETED
OPPORTUNITIES FOR REPETITION OF AREAS GETTING IMPACTED BY
CONVECTION IN CONSECUTIVE, RESULTING IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HERE ARE THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA ON TUESDAY, JULY 14TH, 2026:
EUREKA - 46%
ELY - 45%
LUND - 44%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 43%
CURRIE - 42%
RUBY LAKE - 42%
DUCKWATER - 39%
JACKPOT - 35%
WELLS - 34%
ELKO - 32%
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE AS
DEEP AS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING NEAR RECORD HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES BOTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING MONSOONAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KENV.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD HEAT. HOT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEVADA MONDAY. DEEP, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ031-034-035-038-039.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ036-037-040-041.
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