983
FXUS65 KLKN 052117
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING
* AT OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
NEVADA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER COASTAL OREGON TRIED TO PUSH AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND INTO THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
TROUGH WILL BE FROM THE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HELPS DRIVE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AS SW WINDS
RISE DURING THE AFTERNOONS TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS FATHER WEST WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT 10 TO 20
MPH WITH GUST UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURE ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BEFORE A QUICK WARM-UP TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY GET TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR LATE
WEEK INTO THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEPARTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO SHIFT BACK WEST. MODELS WHICH
WERE ONCE HOPEFUL FOR PRECIPITATION THANKS TO MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE WHICH WILL BE WELL OF SHORE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA,
BUT IN LINE WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. HAVE KEPT TRENDING DRIER AS
ANY MOISTURE FROM MARIE LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS
WEEK. AS FOR THE TROUGH, THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY NORTH
INTO OREGON AND IDAHO. OVERALL THAT LEAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA. WHILE
ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SE WHITE PINE COUNTY WITH A FEW STORMS REACHING AS
FAR NORTH AS THE RUBY MOUNTAINS. CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS
LOOKS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 10% AND 30% MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS
LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS MORE MOISTURE FROM MARIE
RIDES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. AFTER FRIDAY
MODEL DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN
TO A TYPICAL SUMMER TYPE UPPER RIDGING, OR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SECOND UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A QUICK WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NE AWAY FROM NEVADA.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A 10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR EASTERN
ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A 10% TO 30% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF DIVERGENCE FOR THE UPPER PATTERN
AFTER FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR KTPH,
KELY, KENV, AND KEKO WILL BE BREEZY AT 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUST UP TO
35 KT POSSIBLE. KWMC, AND KBAM WILL SIGHT SLIGHTLY LIGHTER W TO SW
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KT WITH A FEW GUST UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LOW TO ELEVATE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS COOL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES OFFSET
BREEZY W TO SW WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING STRONGER SW
WINDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
WILL KEEP COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEVADA. AFTER WEDNESDAY THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NE ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY REACH
BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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