746
FXUS65 KLKN 012047
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
147 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE ZONE 470
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE ELEVATED CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
* RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
* AT LEAST MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR HEAT-
SENSITIVE GROUPS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
* SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL CAUSE REDUCED AIR QUALITY TO
PERSIST AND MAY LEAD TO RESPIRATORY ISSUES OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA TO BE REACHED
TOMORROW OVER PORTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY AND HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHER LOCALES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE QUIET OR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THOUGH IT MAY NOT FEEL LIKE IT,
A DRY COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE CIRCULATION MOVING
WEST ON TUESDAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING, THOUGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
UNDER THIS FEATURE AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BROUGHT US
THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THIS
TIME FRAME WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGIT ANTICIPATED. HEATRISK WILL BE AT
LEAST MODERATE WITH LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NEEDING HEAT HEADLINE
PRODUCT DURING THE MID TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP WATCH. OTHERWISE, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH MANY LOCATIONS EITHER SURPASSING THE CENTURY
MARK OR FLIRTING WITH IT BY A A DEGREE OR TWO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZES TO 20 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. LONG TERM PROGS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNING SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN ALL THIS HEAT, THIS WILL
LEAD TO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS WELL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINDS
WERE MADE TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHER WINDS IN NORTHEAST NEVADA.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE. CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHT COOLING IS
HIGH FOR TOMORROW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH IN
THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TOMORROW FOR FIRE ZONE 470. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE WARMUP ONCE AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
HAZY SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL NEVADA. KELY MAY SEE THE VIS TEMPORARILY DROP TO 6SM DUE
TO SMOKE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS, AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING FOR
THE AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AT CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS FIRE ZONE 470, SO HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS LOCATION FROM 2-11PM SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND
BEYOND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK WEST.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNS MID-WEEK WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON
BREEZES.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR NVZ470.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NVZ031-033>041.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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