185
FXUS65 KLKN 101956
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1256 PM PDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TEMPERATURES AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
* NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK.
* A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM CLIPS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS HAS DISSIPATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW NOW PUSHED EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO, WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE GOT
PUSHED WEST AND ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL AID IN KEEPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA KEEPING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ENHANCED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT
15-20 MPH, GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH. BY TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE INFLUENCE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC MOVES EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS APPROACHING
NEAR RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE 60S TO 70S. LIGHT TO
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO 5-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH.
RECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IS SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY, WHICH WILL TRY TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND PUSH JUST ENOUGH INTO THE OR/ID/NV
BORDER. RECENT MODEL RUNS IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION UP TO 30-45%, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALONG THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN NORTHWESTERN HUMBOLDT AND NORTHERN
ELKO COUNTY WITH VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS ONLY UP TO 0.01 INCHES.
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH, UP TO 15-25 MPH, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER ELKO COUNTY. AFTER THE TROUGH QUICKLY PASSES,
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHEN BACK UP OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH A 90% CONFIDENCE OF REACHING TOWARDS THE WARMEST
RECORD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN MARCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEVADA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HIGH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A WEEKEND SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN NEVADA.
NO CHANGES TO THE GRIDS WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. BREEZY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTH TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL KEEP CIG LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN TERMINALS RANGING FROM
FL100 TO FL150, CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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