326
FXUS65 KLKN 270834
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
134 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RECORD BREAKING HEAT RETURNS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THIS
WEEKEND
* CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN MEANS THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 125 AM PDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
REQUIRED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER AND DEAMPLIFY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IN
ITS BROAD NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SAID FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON
TODAY AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 20 MPH OR LESS.
LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RETREATING HPC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL AGAIN
DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV THREATENING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
MULTIPLE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SW CONUS WILL SHIFT
AS THE HPC TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST RELEASES ITS FIRM GRIP ON THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW A PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN TO SET UP WITH
THE FIRST OF 2 ULTS PUSHING INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MONDAY PM.
NOTICEABLE CLOUD COVER BEGINS MONDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SYSTEM ENCROACHES. CURRENT LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY FOR THE AREA IN THE
FORM OF VALLEY RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE
7000 FEET WITH THE FIRST WAVE MAKING IT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. AFTER
THE FIRST WAVE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY THE
SECOND WAVE WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS BETTER MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN NV THAN
CENTRAL NV WITH THIS SYSTEM AND SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY MUCH
LOWER BEHIND THE THURSDAY SYSTEM BOUNDARY. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM AND WILL REQUIRE FUTURE
MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER CLARITY ON TIMING AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
RECORD BREAKING HEAT THIS WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE WAVE PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THRU
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...92
AVIATION...92
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