421
FXUS65 KLKN 140720
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1220 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
* QUIETER, COOLER WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND
* STORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHERN NV EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: STORMS ARE DYING DOWN OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL RETURN FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SPREAD OUT.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS A MARGINAL THREAT, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THESE STORMS LIFTS
OUT OF NEVADA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKING ITS
PLACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY CUT OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW AND
RESULT IN A DRY WEEKEND. MODELS STILL CAN’T AGREE ON THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK, WITH THE STICKING POINT BEING THE PATH OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THE FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WOULD SEE IT
CLIP NORTHERN NEVADA AND WOULD BE A MUCH COOLER AND POTENTIALLY
WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE ONE KEEPING IT NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER,
HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A DRY
WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
START NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES FROM THE NBM.
AVIATION
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BUT SHORT DURATION VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 2SM HAVE BEEN REPORTED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT AT ALL SITES.
STRONG ERRATIC WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
WIND DRIVEN ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR PORTIONS
OF ZONE 437 WHILE ALL OTHER ZONES ARE FOCUSED ON HEAVY RAINFALL
AND ASSOCIATED RUNOFF AND DEBRIS FLOW POTENTIAL. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL CONTINUES FRIDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE IS MORE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, BEFORE MOSTLY DRYING OUT FOR
SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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