519
FXUS65 KLKN 181114
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
414 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH FRIDAY
* HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THOSE
SENSITIVE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY INCREASES CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH COOLER
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS MORNING. BY LATER THIS EVENING, ALL
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.
THIS WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS ABOUT A
HALF-INCH OR SO AND CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN LIMITED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH ABOUT 100-200J/KG FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN NYE AND SOUTHERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD BRING
SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS IN THE CENTRAL. THOUGH THE PROBABILITIES
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SMALL, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
KEEP THIS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
OCCASIONAL BREEZINESS TO 20 TO 25 MPH OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE 90S. LOOK
FOR QUIET CONDITIONS DURING THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE
50S.
ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ON FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FRAME
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD,
INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO A HALF-INCH TO
TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. SURFACE BASED CAPE REMAINS LIMITED AT
150-400J/KG BUT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE CENTRAL PORTIONS CONTINUE
TO LOOK DRY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
NORTH BUT WILL BE STRONGER IN THE CENTRAL WITH GUSTS TO 35 TO 40
MPH. IN ADDITION, ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 55
MPH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S AND 90S. EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO COOLING AND RISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. AMOUNTS REMAIN RATHER MODEST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT AND WESTERN ELKO
COUNTIES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WEST, THEN A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE BUT REMAIN RELEGATED TO LOCALES NORTH OF I-80. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT SEVEN TO ELEVEN DEGREES BELOW RECENT
HIGHS AS READINGS TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25
MPH. LOOK FOR GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE UPPER RIDGE
RETURNING TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODIFICATION TO THE NBM
FORECAST WAS REQUIRED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR
CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, INCREASED SLIGHTLY THE WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, AND
INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 90S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW ON THE COVERAGE AND
PLACEMENT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE DRY CONVECTION IN THE NORTH ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES KWMC-KBAM-
KEKO-KENV WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS OVER KTPH AND KELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FIRE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION, AND IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WITH GUSTS TO
35 MPH ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. HEADLINE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES HAVE
BEEN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AND ARE ON TRACK THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THESE WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE AS-IS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO MOISTEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH. A MIX
OF WET AND DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAILING.
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ425>427.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
NVZ424-437-438-469-470.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page