054
FXUS65 KLKN 290829
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1229 AM PST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1227 AM PST MON DEC 29 2025
* WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE.
* WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN FOR NEW YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AND
AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 AM PST MON DEC 29 2025
NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST AS QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
2025 ON TRACK TO DEPART WITH QUIET WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL
MORNING LOWS, HOWEVER 2026 LOOKS TO START ON THE WET SIDE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN BUILDING ACROSS THE SILVER STATE FROM THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH NEW YEARS
EVE. HOWEVER THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BREAK DOWN NEW YEARS DAY
THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MAKE THERE WAY TO
NEVADA. THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, AND AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A MILD PACIFIC SYSTEM WITH SOME
MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THAT MEANS ANOTHER MIX OF LOWER TO MID ELEVATION RAIN, AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW, THAT BEGINS EARLY NEW YEARS DAY ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA SHIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DEPARTING FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO BE
DECENT, RAIN WISE AS VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATION PASSES LOOK TO
GET BETWEEN 0.10” AND 0.75”. HUMBOLDT COUNTY LOOKS TO BE DRIER AS
THIS SYSTEMS TRACK WILL BE MORE OF A GRAZE, BUT WILL STILL GET
BETWEEN 0.05” AND 0.35” OF WATER. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH AT
AROUND 7500 FEET, WITH MOUNTAINS LIKE THE RUBIES SEEING BETWEEN 4”
AND 8” OF NEW SNOW. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE FIRST, BUT SIMILAR TO THE FIRST, WILL
ALSO HAVE A TROPICAL MOISTURE COMPONENT BUT IT WON’T BE AS STRONG.
MODELS SHOW SNOW LEVELS STARTING AT AROUND 7000 FEET DROPPING TO
5500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH TIMING OF THE COOLER AIR
STILL LOOKS TO BE UNCERTAIN GIVEN HIGH VARIATION IN MODEL
ENSEMBLES. OVERALL FOR VALLEYS AND LOWER ELEVATION PASSES THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE RAIN WITH MOST AREAS SEEING BETWEEN 0.05”
AND 0.40” OF RAIN. FOR ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5500 FEET AND 6500 FEET
THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO SNOW WITH UP TO 1” OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL BE THE SNOW WINNER WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
BETWEEN 2” TO 10” OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500 FEET.
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE WARMING THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE WILL
PLATEAU NEW YEARS DAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE COOLING WITH THE SECOND
SYSTEM TO BE CLOSER TOO, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEW YEARS EVE.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV NEW YEARS DAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT MOISTURE THERE WILL BE
A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR VCFG AND VICINITY FREEZING FOG AT
AREA TERMINALS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FOG LOOK TO BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE AND AFTER SUNRISE.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86/98
AVIATION...98
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