265
FXUS65 KLKN 200848
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
148 AM PDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND PEAKS THURSDAY
* MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LOW DESERT
OF EASTERN ELKO COUNTY TO INCLUDE THE WENDOVER AREA.
* HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SE ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
* CHANCES FOR MONSOON STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REACH ITS PEAK EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGINS ITS SLOW DRIFT EAST. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A LOW 10% TO
20% CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET OR DRY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR NE ELKO COUNTY. BY FRIDAY A UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN WEST COAST, THIS TROUGH WHILE HAVING NO
IMPACT ON NEVADA, WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE, AND
PUSH THE RIDGE ITSELF EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND WESTERN CANADA. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER BATCH OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO NEVADA.
MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW PATTERN PERSISTING WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK GIVING NEVADA A DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE
A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDER, EVEN AS FORECASTS SHOW A HIGH
PREFERENCE FOR WET STORM MODES. TEMPERATURES PEAK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 90S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SE ELKO COUNTY WHERE
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MID 70S. FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK, THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO COOL BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH W TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S SW BUT SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
LOOK TO BE SIMILAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SE ELKO
COUNTY.
THERE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NE ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A DAILY
20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEVADA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
5KT TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARMING TEMPERATURES,
LOW RH, AND A VERY LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR A MIX OF WET OR DRY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR NORTH EASTERN ELKO COUNTY WILL
KEEP ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND
LIGHTING STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FULLY UP NORTH, THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY, AS THERE WILL STILL BE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS. IF TIMING IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST FOR THE
MOISTURE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR ZONE 437 AND
POSSIBLY 424.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING
NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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