150
FXUS65 KLKN 200710
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1210 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON
* THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA, RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HERE ARE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SELECT LOCATIONS IN EASTERN NEVADA
ON TUESDAY, JULY 21ST, 2026:
ELY - 50%
LUND - 50%
GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK - 50%
EUREKA - 48%
CURRIE - 45%
RUBY LAKE - 43%
AUSTIN - 41%
ELKO - 36%
WELLS - 36%
WEST WENDOVER - 31%
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (SLIGHT) WILL REMAIN IN THE SERVICE
AREA FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REGARDING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN NORTHERN
NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NO
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM MODEL OUTPUT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE AREA OF KEKO/KENV/KELY/KTPH AGAIN TODAY, AND DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACT CAN’T BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 40KT AND DECREASED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH, AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. ENHANCED RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
STORMS THAT FORM OVER AREAS WITH ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM EARLIER
THIS WEEK (ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF 470 AND 425).
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ030-031-033-036-038.
DISCUSSION...87
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...87
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