300
FXUS65 KLKN 092025
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
125 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE UTAH BORDER TODAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
* INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING IN WHITE PINE COUNTY AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND SUNDOWN.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TOMORROW TO KICK OFF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST FEW DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
INTO TRIPLE DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S, BUT HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS ARE ALSO AT RISK, WITH ELKO, EUREKA AND ELY ALL
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR TIE THEIR CURRENT RECORD ON SATURDAY. THE
HEAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH ON
SATURDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BREAK FOR
MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ALSO STARTING MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL FACILITATE A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PUSH THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES. AT
THIS TIME MONSOONAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST, BUT THE HIGH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE WHEN
IT BREAKS DOWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME HEAT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND BEYOND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON MONSOON
MOISTURE AND STORM POTENTIAL BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF SAID STORMS. WINDS WERE INCREASED BY ABOUT 5
MPH FOR SATURDAY TO BETTER REFLECT POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER
REFLECT THE FUTURE OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KENV BUT
DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED. SHORT LIVED STRONG WINDS
UP TO 40KT MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL DUE TO NEARBY THUNDERSTORM
PASSAGE.
AMD NOT SKED CONTINUES FOR KEKO DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES.
FIRE WEATHER
EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS WILL BE REACHED IN CENTRAL NEVADA ON SATURDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE TO GUST 30-35 MPH. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW IS INDICATED
TO BEGIN ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR INITIAL
DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS GENERAL THUNDER AND
POTENTIAL WETTING RAIN IMPACTS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ031-034-035-038-039.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
NVZ036-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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