609
FXUS65 KLKN 242000
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1200 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1200 PM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
* PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN IN NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING
* UNSEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
* NEXT ROUND OF ATMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITH
VERY LOW CHANCE OF MORE PRECIPITATION
* POSSIBLE CHANCE OF A REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TODAY INTO THE NEXT MORNING AS MOISTURE IS PUSHED NORTH
OF NEVADA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.
CHANCES FOR VALLEY PRECIPITATION REMAIN BELOW 50% OF SEEING UP TO
0.05 TO 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR HIGH
MOUNTAIN TOPS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGS IN MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S. BY TOMORROW AND INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOOK FOR MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY WITH DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WEST.
OVER THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER THE
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS TO THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENING INTO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE
SYSTEM STAYING PUT AND A REX BLOCK PATTERN FORMS OVER THE WEST AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S, AND LOWS IN
THE 30S. GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ALL OTHER ASPECTS
TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TOMORROW MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
BRINGING BACK UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEK. NO
CHANGES TO NBM GRIDS WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BE DOMINANT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. VCSH CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND KELY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MORNING AS SOME
MOISTURE PUSHES SOUTH FROM THE MOISTURE TO THE NORTH.
-SHRA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER ALL NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIG LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW VFR
HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE FROM PASSING STORMS. SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS UP TO 10-15 KTS, GUSTS 20-25 KTS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS,
10-12 KTS AT CENTRAL TERMINALS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
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