823
FXUS65 KLKN 280951
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
251 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VEGETATION REMAINS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE TODAY, LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A CURRENT REVIEW OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RECEIVED AT
REMOTE OBSERVATION LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW LIGHT AMOUNTS AT
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOR TODAY, STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO RESIDE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC STATES. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RUN BETWEEN 200-600J/KG OR SO WITH STEEPER
LAPSE RATES SEEN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. IN
ADDITION, 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE COMING IN FAIRLY STRONG AT
35 TO 45 KNOTS. SUFFICE TO SAY SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, BASICALLY
COVERING THE US HIGH50 CORRIDOR, NORTHEAST TO ROUGHLY MONTELLO.
THESE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED, PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAVE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD BE
VERY PROBLEMATIC IF IT FALLS ON A RECENTLY BURNED LOCATION,
LEADING TO DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY IS TRENDING MORE CONCERNING AS WELL AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES WITH RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND STRONG STORMS.
CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WITH MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND TWO-THIRDS
OF AN INCH, SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA AT OR
ABOVE 0.75 INCHES. IN THIS AREA WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER,
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND -2C TO -4C OR SO, AND
WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-45 KNOTS.
DCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
1000K/KG, WHICH COULD LEAD TO OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60
MPH. AGAIN, THERE IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT
IMPACTS IF IT FALLS ON RECENTLY BURNED LOCATIONS, THUS LEADING TO
DEBRIS FLOWS AND FLASH FLOODING. COOLING CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. LOWS WILL DIP INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE REGARDING INCREASED PRECIPITATION TODAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WX,
POP GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO HIGHLIGHT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A MAJORITY OF TERMINALS TODAY,
CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS
GUSTING TO 50KT. NO SUSTAINED VISIBILITY OR CEILING IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED IMPACTS DUE TO DIMINISHED VISIBILITY
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BLDU.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY, THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ENHANCE, INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS, ESPECIALLY OVER
NEWLY CREATED BURN SCARS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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