475
FXUS65 KLKN 130704
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1204 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NV DUE TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS
* MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND
TROUGHING TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA TODAY BEFORE
EXPANDING TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTEST DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS
OF 0.25” AND A BAND OF 0.5” TO 0.75” SHAPING UP JUST SOUTH OF THE
US-50 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT (15%) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TOMORROW AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.
THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, WEAKENING THE
MOISTURE FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOSTLY CUTTING OFF STORMS,
LEAVING ABOUT A 10% TO 20% CHANCE THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT AFTER SUNDAY, WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING THE
FUTURE OF THE CURRENT MONSOON EVENT. THE GENERAL INDICATION IS
STILL FOR THE MONSOON TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL NEVADA, HOWEVER THE
STRENGTH AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE EVENT STILL DEPEND ON HOW THE
UPPER RIDGE BEHAVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS REFLECTING THE MORE CUT OFF SCENARIO, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A
MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY DISAGREE REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. NO CHANGES TO NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINANT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH MOMENTARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO TSRA AND SMOKE FROM AREA WILDFIRES. -TSRA IS
FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUED MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
THIS MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND PREVENT DRY-
WINDY THREATS, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY POSE FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOW
THREATS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NEW PASS AND WARD FIRE AREAS.
LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE A THREAT TO FIRE PERSONNEL, ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY NEW STARTS FROM
LIGHTNING.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING NVZ035-037-040-041.
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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