074
FXUS65 KLKN 231944
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1244 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES IN THE VALLEYS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY OVER
MAINLY WHITE PINE COUNTY
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY, STRONGEST WINDS ON SATURDAY
* MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TODAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR TOMORROW AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES NORTHERN
NEVADA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH THE TROUGH MAY
ALSO SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN WHITE PINE
COUNTY. THIS TROUGH EXITS FOR THURSDAY BUT CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF A SECOND, MUCH STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S. IMPACTS FROM THE SECOND TROUGH BEGIN ON FRIDAY, WITH STRONG
WINDS TRIGGERING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FURTHEST
NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE COVERAGE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING
TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE 50S IN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA BY SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO A WETTER ONE, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FOR NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CENTRAL NEVADA
HAS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF SEEING ANY STORMS, BUT WILL STILL
BENEFIT FROM THE COOLDOWN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S BY SUNDAY. MODEL VARIANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNDAY, BUT THE CURRENT FAVORED SOLUTION FEATURES ZONAL FLOW,
WHICH WOULD DRY THINGS OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
AROUND SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
DAYTIME GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KT WILL AFFECT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KENV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A COOLING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO LOW
RH VALUES AND SOME AFTERNOON GUSTY WINDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND WINDS GUSTING 35-40
MPH, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ALSO APPEAR LIKELY IN CENTRAL NEVADA FOR SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, AND 470
DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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