969
FXUS65 KLKN 190805
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
105 AM PDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
* INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WITH A 10%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UP NEAR JACKPOT.
* MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S.
* PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ARE TRENDING HIGHER WITH
SOME MODELS SUGGESTING A 20% CHANCE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1254 AM PDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEK AS NW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP NV
DRY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN
WEST WILL KEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
LIGHT TO BREEZY NW WINDS. THURSDAY A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH
WILL RIDE THE NW FLOW, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT LINE THROUGH NEVADA,
BUT MODELS KEEP THIS SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE THAT ONLY THE FAR
NE ELKO COUNTY COULD SEE A 10% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL NV AND THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF N NYE
COUNTY FRIDAY. AFTER FRIDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
LASTING THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE
THE TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS
STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MODIFY AND WARM. HIGHS WILL START COOL IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WARM THROUGH THE
WEEK BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS
WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS WELL STARTING IN THE LOW 20S TO LOW 30S
TUESDAY MORNING THE RISING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S BY THE
SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR QUIET, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES LASTING THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (5-10% CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NE ELKO COUNTY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (10-15% CHANCE) OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF TERMINALS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON.
KEKO REMAINS AMD NOT SKED DUE TO COMMUNICATION DISRUPTION.
FIRE WEATHER
LIGHT WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH GUSTING TO 15 MPH IN VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS OVER FW ZONES 469 AND 470
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS THOSE TWO ZONES (THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
LOW ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FWF ZONE FORECASTS).
LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY ARE
TRENDING HIGHER IN SOME MODELS, WITH A 20-25% CHANCE ACROSS ELKO
COUNTY IN ONE MODEL. THE LIGHTEST WINDS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY WHERE AFTERNOON
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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