321
FXUS65 KLKN 222117
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
217 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES 5-15% ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS
* UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
* STRONG, GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK TUESDAY
* CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. BUILD-UPS ARE NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA THOUGH NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SEEN IN NORTHWEST NYE
COUNTY. LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL
NEVADA SKIES TONIGHT, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TOMORROW PER THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS. IN ADDITION, LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES
AT AROUND -1C WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY SITTING AROUND TWENTY PERCENT IN CENTRAL
NEVADA AND TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT IN NORTHERN NEVADA. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE THE BIGGEST THREATS
AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. LOOK
FOR SKIES TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA. HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY BUT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S.
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
MONDAY, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS
IN THE 70S AND 80S ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S AND 40S. BY TUESDAY, AN EAST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS NEVADA. LOOK FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40
MPH. SOME LOCALES MAY REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY. HIGHS WILL BE
SEVEN TO TWELVE DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A COLD
FRONT MARCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE
20S AND 30S.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LOOK FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WPC POP FORECAST WAS USED IN PLACE OF
NBM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
CUMULUS BUILD-UPS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT
NEAR KTPH WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TS POSSIBLE ACROSS KTPH, KELY, KENV, AND KEKO
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS TO 35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE US HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT
FIVE TO TEN PERCENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW, LIMITED
AND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO BRING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES, ABOUT
A TWENTY PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST, WHILE IN THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS, ABOUT TEN TO FIFTEEN PERCENT. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ON THE DRY SIDE. IN ADDITION, OUTFLOW
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. BY SUNDAY,
ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN ELKO COUNTY, THOUGH
SOME BUILD-UPS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA. STRONG, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. VALLEY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR COOLING TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE MID- WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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