693
FXUS65 KLKN 270942
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING ISOLATED DRY STORM CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
* VEGETATION REMAINS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
* TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN COOLING TOMORROW AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS NEAR NORMAL
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSIVE RIDGE ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES. FOR TODAY,
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, ALLOWING
LIMITED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING FOR STORMS TO BE MORE ON THE
DRY SIDE. ANTECEDENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND DRIED OUT FUELS ARE
MITIGATING THE EFFECTS OF ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION THIS WEEK. AS A RESULT, LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
SUCCESSFUL IN IGNITING NUMEROUS FIRES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND, LEADING TO POSSIBLE
NEW FIRE STARTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE
50S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE AREA RECEIVES A DOUBLE SHOT OF MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE CA
COAST WILL FILTER INTO WESTERN NEVADA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH (1+ TO 1.2 INCHES) ON FRIDAY.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE 0.25-0.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SAID RAINFALL AND RESULTING CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND THAT WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH READINGS
IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY IS A BIT CONCERNING WITH RESPECT TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND
STRONG STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER MOIST
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE 0.75 INCHES. LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO STEEPEN WITH LIFTED INDICES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND -2C TO -4C OR SO, AND WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS. DCAPE VALUES IN CENTRAL NEVADA WILL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1000K/KG, WHICH COULD LEAD TO OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 58 MPH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE ONGOING SITUATION.
COOLING CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND 80S. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND THE 4C/ULT HYBRID SETUP LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR QUIETER WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO
SEPTEMBER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA TODAY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE REGARDING INCREASED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED COOLING TREND. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
WX, POP GRIDS IN THE SHORT TERM TO HIGHLIGHT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS TODAY. VCTS IS ANTICIPATED AT KENV AND KELY THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND TS
WITH SPEEDS UP TO 40KT. EXPECT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AT ALL
TERMINALS TO BE IN THE 20-25KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE MAIN
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH. LOOK FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. THOUGH STORMS ARE
INITIALLY GOING TO BE DRY IN THE BEGINNING, THE MOISTURE SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WETTER STORMS MORE QUICKLY DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, LASTING INTO SATURDAY.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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