758
FXUS65 KLKN 090942
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 115 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
* RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA
* NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WEDNESDAY BRINGS THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECASTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
PASSING TO THE NORTH AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOME CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER AZ/NM. COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES, THE RESULTING STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT SYSTEM
REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE EVER
PRESENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE CASE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SW CONUS AND WEST COAST ON SUNDAY. RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA SIGNAL A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS SOAR BACK INTO THE 90S AND EVEN TRIPLE DIGITS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES HEATRISK AT A
MODERATE LEVEL EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
THOSE SENSITIVE TO HOT TEMPERATURE WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO AVOID HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS FOR DAYS 8
AND 9 ARE DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN
OVER THE SW CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME POTENTIAL
REPRIEVE FROM HOT, DRY CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: THE LATE WEEK FORECAST IS
FAIRLY BENIGN AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE
SW CONUS SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HOT, DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. NBM OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
UNDER SELL WHEN FORECASTING AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS). TO CORRECT THIS A MODEL BLEND OF NBM AND
NBM90 WAS USED TO NUDGE WIND VELOCITIES TO MORE ACCURATE VALUES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING GUSTY WINDS OF 20
TO 35 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
ZONES 424 425 427 438 469 AND 470. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT TODAY FROM 11 AM AND 8 PM PDT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WARMER SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH MID
90S TO LOW 100S.
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 469 AND 470 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS TO AROUND 10% ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA. FOR NOW HOWEVER NO MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST AS
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ424-425-427-438-469-470.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...96
FIRE WEATHER...96
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