785
FXUS65 KLKN 072129
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
229 PM PDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* NEAR RECORD HEAT IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
* MAJOR RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES FOR MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BOTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
* ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA TOMORROW DUE
TO ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
* ISOLATED, DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL NEVADA THIS
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS CONTINUES TO SITUATE NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. VARIOUS HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AND HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11 PM SUNDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100S WITH MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEAT RISK INDICES ACROSS THE AREA.
TIGHTER WEATHER GRADIENTS TO THE NORTH OF NEVADA WILL INCREASE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 MPH,
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 MPH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE PRESENT TOMORROW DUE TO BREEZY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
TOWARDS CENTRAL NEVADA, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS
PUSHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES,
INCREASE IN CAPE, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEVADA, IN PARTICULAR OVER WHITE PINE
COUNTY, WILL SEE DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS STORM
MOTION IS SLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT WITH THUNDERSTORM COLLAPSING ON
THEMSELVES AS DOWNDRAFTS WILL CUT OFF THE STORM UPDRAFTS. DESPITE
THE SHORT LIVED STORMS, THE GREATEST THREAT IS STILL THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING UP TO 40-50 MPH.
TOMORROW, CHANCES FOR MORE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA AS PWAT VALUES AND CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER THAN THE DAY PRIOR. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
WIDER AREA OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY IN
THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR THOSE AREAS DUE TO THE DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NV FIRE ZONES 425 AND 426 FROM 12 PM
TO 9 PM SATURDAY.
SUNDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO NEVADA
FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WITH CHANCES FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA AND REACH INTO PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA EXPECTED TO BE A MIX OF WET/DRY WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT INTO THE VALLEYS.
INTO THE NEXT WEEK, CHANCES FOR MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PUSH MOISTURE INTO NEVADA. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY OVER CENTRAL NEVADA AND INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK DOWN INTO THE
50S. EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL STILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN ELKO
COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE UPPER
90S, HOWEVER LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUE FOR
NEAR RECORD HEAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WINDS
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA TOMORROW. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL NEVADA DUE TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. CHANGES TO THE POP, WEATHER, WIND SPEEDS, AND WIND GUSTS
GRIDS WERE MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONCOMING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW, VCTS CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR
KELY AND KTPH AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE ENTERS INTO NEVADA PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BETWEEN 5-10 KTS,
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS UP
TO 40-50 MPH.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
ALONG THE STATE BORDER AS WINDS REACH UP TO 10-15 MPH, GUSTS 20-25
MPH WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 10% AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS ALSO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA IN ZONES 425 AND 426 AS MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA, PRODUCING DRY THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA. DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS FROM
THUNDERSTORM DOWNDRAFTS UP TO 40-50 MPH WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. TOMORROW, MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO NEVADA AND WILL BE MORE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
EXTENDING INTO ZONE 427. POTENTIAL FOR MORE DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ZONES 425 AND 426. RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM SATURDAY FOR 425 AND 426. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY NVZ031-034-035.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT SUNDAY
NVZ030-036-037-038-039-040-041
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM PDT TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR FIRE
ZONES NV425-426
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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