059
FXUS65 KLKN 250856
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
156 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH EACH AFTERNOON, ENDING BY SUNDAY
* MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON
* ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EBB AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DRIFTS WEST REORIENTING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND CUTTING OFF THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW OVER NEVADA, AND SHOVING IT EASTWARD OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE THE FINAL
TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY FOR FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF ELKO AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SEE A 25% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE LAST DAY WHERE
STORM CHANCES ARE GREATER THAN 10%, AS WELL AS BEING THE MOST
CONDITIONAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
WILL BE VERY MEAGER. MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY THE RIDGE
CONTINUES IS SLOW DRIFT WEST EVENTUALLY SETTING UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SLOW STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE A DRYING TREND, AS WELL AS SUPPORT THE ONGOING
WARMING TREND AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REACHING A PEAK NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW WITH BREEZY
AFTERNOON WINDS RANGING AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S, WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR SECTIONS OF ELKO COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS HEAT IMPACTS
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH A HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS, WITH
KEKO/KENV/KELY/KTPH IN THE THUNDERSTORM ZONE SATURDAY. AS USUAL,
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE STRONG ERRATIC WINDS AND
POTENTIAL SHORT LIVED VISIBILITY DROPS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. KWMC,
KBAM AND KTPH CAN ALSO EXPECT PREVAILING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25KT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 10KT AND VFR CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
A 15% TO 25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A 10% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. MAIN HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL AFTERNOON WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR NE
NEVADA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, AT AROUND 18-25%.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ031-038.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY NVZ033.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94
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