345
FXUS65 KLKN 220846
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
146 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
* SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DEBRIS FLOWS ON RECENTLY
BURNED AREAS
* COOLING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE SILVER STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM MODES AT THIS TIME FAVOR WET
STORM MODES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA. HOWEVER, FOR WESTERN
NEVADA FROM ABOUT BATTLE MOUNTAIN AND POINTS WEST, THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS, OR FOR STORMS THAT
HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. COMMON
HAZARD FOR STORMS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH,
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO
WATCH CENTRAL NEVADA BURN SCARS AS RECENT FIRES AN HYDROPHOBIC
SOILS MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS IF CELLS ARE SLOWER
MOVING. AFTER WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY
AND WORK ITS WAY BACK WEST AND SHIFTING THE UPPER FLOW BACK TO A
WSW DIRECTION, THUS CUTTING OFF MOISTURE FLOW BY THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE MAY BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RESIDUE MOISTURE CAN STICK AROUND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE
AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO COOL BACK
INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S, OR COOLER IF YOU SEE A THUNDERSHOWER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
GIVING A NICE BREAK FROM THE RECENT HEAT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WEEK AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A DAILY
20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE MONSOON FLOW AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETURNS TO THE WEST BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5KT TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. VCTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS MONSOONAL
FLOW KEEPS A 20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DAILY
20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. HAZARDS FROM STORMS
WILL INCLUDE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR WESTERN NEVADA THERE WILL
BE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HERE WON’T BE AS DEEP AS LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST
WHICH MAY KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED FOR A TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOONS BEFORE STORM MATURE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURE WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS WELL WITH HIGH IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S. HIGH
PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD BACK WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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