266
FXUS65 KLKN 190924
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
224 AM PDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
* MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK FOR THURSDAY
* CHANCES FOR MONSOON STORMS RETURN STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES EXPANDING ITS
FOOTPRINT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN AS THE
FIRST PART OF THE SHORT TERM TREND DRIER, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW
AT 10% TO 20% THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE A ISOLATED STORM WILL BE FAR EASTERN NV ALONG THE UT
BORDER WEDNESDAY, AND FAR NE ELKO COUNTY ALONG THE ID BORDER
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY A UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH OVER
THE NORTHERN WEST COAST, THIS TROUGH WHILE HAVING NO IMPACT ON
NEVADA, WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE, AND PUSH THE
RIDGE ITSELF EAST OVER NEW MEXICO AS IT LIFTS INTO THE PNW AND
WESTERN CANADA. AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER BATCH OF MONSOON
MOISTURE TO BE PULLED NORTH INTO NEVADA. MODELS SHOW THIS FLOW
PATTERN PERSISTING WELL INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK GIVING NEVADA A
DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS STARTING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR DRY
THUNDER, EVEN AS FORECASTS SHOW A HIGH PREFERENCE FOR WET STORM
MODES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THIS WILL RETURN DAYTIME HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW 90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MANY WITH HEAT
HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF ELKO, N EUREKA, AND N LANDER
COUNTIES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ELSEWHERE. FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK, THE SURGE OF MOISTURE AND THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO COOL BACK INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOONS WITH W TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW
WEEK WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW BUT SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS LOOK TO BE SIMILAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR CHANCES OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT HEADLINES POSSIBLE FOR SE
ELKO COUNTY.
THERE LOW CONFIDENCE FOR A 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A DAILY
20% TO 50% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NEVADA.
AVIATION
FR CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
5KT TO 15KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
VICINITY OF KELY AND KENV WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT DIRECT TERMINAL
IMPACTS OF LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS UP TO 45KT ARE NOT EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARMING TEMPERATURES,
LOW RH, AND A VERY LOW 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR FAR EASTERN NV WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, GROUND LIGHTING STRIKES, AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AS WELL. FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND DAILY 20% TO 50% CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...98
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...98
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