627
FXUS65 KLKN 221914
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1214 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING.
* FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THOUGH BREEZES WILL BE PRESENT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
* GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY
COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: LIGHT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND DISSIPATE TO CLEARER SKIES AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO UTAH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF NEVADA, ANOTHER VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORMS
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL BE CENTRALIZED MORE TOWARDS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING FLOW PATTERN OVER
NEVADA TO A MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL BRING A GRADUAL
WARMING IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK
INTO THE 80S BY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED, STAYING AT
A LIGHT TO MODERATELY BREEZY WINDS UP TO 5-15 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE STRONGER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL EXTEND INTO NEVADA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS
EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN INTO THE 60S TO 70S OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY, CALM, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER EVENT THROUGH THE WEEK AS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH ANY OF THESE ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGHS OVER NEVADA AS THERE
ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE INVOLVED IN THESE SYSTEMS.
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE SHOWING A THIRD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COAST WITH INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER NEVADA. CONFIDENCE AS TO
THE STRENGTH AND TIMING BEGIN TO WANE. AT THE SAME TIME, MODELS
ARE ALSO SHOWING HURRICANE POLO (WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM)
WILL MOVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IN WESTERN MEXICO AND PUSH INTO
THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE TIMING
AND POSITION OF THE STORM DIFFER WITHIN THE MODELS WITH SOME
INDICATING IT APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST IT
COMING LATER NEXT WEEK AND WEAKENING EVEN FURTHER BEFORE CROSSING
INTO THE US.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO CALM, DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS KEEPING WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEVADA WITH A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN REGARDS TO
A THIRD, STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER NEVADA NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONDITION AT ALL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEVADA. VCSH CONDITIONS OVER KEKO, KELY, AND KENV WITH
A PROB30 FOR -TSRA CONDITIONS OVER THE AIRPORT, WHICH MIGHT DROP
CONDITIONS INTO MVFR OR LOWER AS IT MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST BELOW 10 KTS, HOWEVER GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS FROM PASSING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS EVENING,
WEATHER CONDITIONS DISSIPATE TO CLEARER SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
BELOW 10 KTS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH.
FIRE WEATHER
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WILL DISSIPATE
TONIGHT INTO CLEAR, DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES REACHING JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY, BREEZY WINDS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA AS
WIND GUSTS REACH UP TO 40-50 MPH AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVE IN FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS HUMIDITY DROPS TO JUST ABOVE 15%, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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