759
FXUS65 KLKN 260919
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
219 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LINGERING STORM CHANCES IN EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH TOMORROW
* VEGETATION REMAINS DRY ENOUGH THAT ANY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
ON THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
READINGS NEAR NORMAL
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. THE UPPER PATTERN HAS REMAINED
FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SITS ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR TODAY, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND STABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUCH THAT THERE IS A TEN TO TWENTY PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND OUTFLOW
WINDS TO 45 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 50S. LOOK FOR THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST. BEGINNING FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW THAT WILL CROSS CALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA,
BRINGING A RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW DEEP THIS MOISTURE IS CONTINUES TO BE LOW TO MODERATE BUT THE
CURRENT FORECAST WOULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
WEAKER AND MORE ISOLATED STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNWARD SHIFT TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON
FRIDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES WERE MADE TO POPS AND
WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM, INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE IN STORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
IMPACTS THROUGH TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO IN
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE LEVELS AND EXTENT OF
IMPACTS.
AVIATION
VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE KELY AND KENV
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS TO 40KT. OTHERWISE, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES
TO 20KT WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT, DRY, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF FWZ 437 THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THAT FIRE WEATHER ZONE WILL RANGE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN FIRE ZONES OF 425, 469,
AND 470. STORMS WILL INITIATE IN EARLY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT. THE IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL ENHANCE
AGGRESSIVE FIRE BEHAVIOR. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WITH A
RAMPING UP OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page