620
FXUS65 KLKN 191030
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
330 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TODAY, COOLING INTO THE 80S SATURDAY
* HEAT RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE SENSITIVE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES
* INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TODAY AND SATURDAY
* WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 90S FOR ALL LOCATIONS
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A FEW WEAK ECHOS ARE NOTED ON THIS
MORNING'S RADAR LOOP. SKIES ARE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
MORNING WEARS ON. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA SITS
UNDER A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT WEATHER SITUATION SHOWS AN
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE BRINGING A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT ACTIVITY IN SEEN IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWESTERN NEVADA RIGHT NOW AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATER TODAY. CURRENT
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW. FOR TODAY, LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA.
GIVEN HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN, SOME LIGHT, THOUGH MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED BUT WILL BE ISOLATED TO HIGHER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. EXPECTING MANY OF THE VALLEY LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
SEEING VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IN GENERAL. OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 90S. IN CENTRAL NEVADA, MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED IN THE MID- LEVELS WITH STRONGER SURFACE WINDS TO 35 MPH.
HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S. LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S.
BY SATURDAY, THE UPPER FLOW WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTH.
EXPENDED COVERAGE SOUTHWARD WITH THE I-80 CORRIDOR SERVING AS THE
SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOOK FOR THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: CHANGES WERE AGAIN MADE TO THE
NBM FORECAST TO INCLUDE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA WAS INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TODAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW ON THE COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT
OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WARMING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
NEXT 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. INCOMING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 19Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES KWMC-
KBAM-KEKO. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO
45KT AND BLDU THAT COULD QUICKLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBY TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL TERMINALS KTPH AND KELY, WINDS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
S-SW10-20G30-35KT.
FIRE WEATHER
LOOK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA IN ZONES 424, 437, 438, 469, 470, AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF 427, TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY,
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425, 426, AND 427.
THESE WILL COMBINE WITH SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES TO BRING CRITICAL WIND/RH CONDITIONS. CURRENT COMPLEMENT OF
RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK GOOD. THE MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA FOR
TOMORROW, THOUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY HELP TO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. DRY AND
WARMING CONDITIONS RETURNS ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM FRIDAY NVZ425-426-427.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM FRIDAY
NVZ424-437-438-469-470.
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...86
FIRE WEATHER...86
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