301
FXUS65 KLKN 052044
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
144 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
* ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA MONDAY AFTERNOON
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
* MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS HAS PUSHED IN SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
NEVADA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY
DESPITE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REACHING UP TO 0.9 INCHES, DUE TO
MOISTURE LEVELS AT MUCH HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SURFACE LEVELS
REALLY DRY AND WARM. PROBABILITY FOR ACTIVE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN LOW FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES THIS EVENING OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY AS THE STORMFRONT
MOVES NORTH. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 90S.
TOMORROW, CHANCES FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STILL SITUATED OVER NEVADA WITH AN INCREASE IN
CAPE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. AGAIN,
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE STAYING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
SURFACE LEVELS STAYING WARM AND DRY, MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A MIX OF
WET/DRY BY THE EVENING. THE ONGOING ACTIVITY WITH INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WILL HELP BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BUT
RELATIVELY STAY IN THE LOW 90S. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW GUSTS COULD
REACH UP TO 50 MPH.
TUESDAY, THE WEATHER PATTERN IS STARTING TO STRETCH OUT TO A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH AND FOUR CORNERS HIGH
BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MUCH OF NEVADA IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT WITH
QUIETER WEATHER, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER ELKO COUNTY AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE IN THE
RANGES OF 150-200 J/KG WITH SOME RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERHEAD. BY THE EVENING, STORMS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE, LEAVING
QUIET DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP
INTO THE MID 90S.
REST OF THE WEEK, WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND EACH DAY AS HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 90S WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.
MADE CHANGES TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IMPACTING CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR ACTIVE DRY THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEVADA, AS WELL AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
ELKO COUNTY TUESDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF HEAT RELATED RISKS
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR
PERIOD. INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME MODERATE CAPE
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWING INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FOR VCTS NEAR
KWMC, AND KBAM THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, VCTS
IS ALSO ADDED IN THE TAFS FOR KTPH AS RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW
INCREASE IN PROBABILITY FOR ACTIVE STORMS JUST TO THE NORTH. BY
THE EVENING, CHANCES ALSO INCREASE FOR VCTS OVER KEKO. BY LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, STORMS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT, HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REACHING UP TO 50 KTS.
TOMORROW, CHANCES FOR MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OVER KEKO BY THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS ARE THE MAIN FIRE
WEATHER THREAT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS AFTERNOON, DRY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEVADA AFFECTING ZONE 437 AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF 424 AND 427 THIS AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING
ACTIVE DRY THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED OVER 437 AND EXTENDING
INTO ZONE 438, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS EXPECTED TO NOT REACH CRITERIA
HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS GUSTS UP TO 50
MPH. TOMORROW, CHANCES FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE MORE SPREAD OUT AFFECTING ZONES 424, 427, AND 437 AS WELL AS
EXTENDING INTO 438, 469, 470 AND PARTS OF 425.
LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...97
AVIATION...97
FIRE WEATHER...97
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