022
FXUS65 KREV 012035
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
135 PM PDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS BY AIR, LAND AND WATER ESPECIALLY
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
* SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PRODUCING HAZARDOUS WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE MAIN
PASSES AROUND TAHOE AND NORTHEAST CA.
* AFTER WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
RAIN AND SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
NORTHEAST CA, WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY 7000-8000 FEET BUT
DIPPING BELOW 7000 FEET AT TIMES. THIS INITIAL PRECIP AREA WILL
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET, BUT QUICKLY RESUME THIS EVENING THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN STORM AND COLD FRONT DROP IN FROM THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS WILL PLUNGE TO VALLEY FLOORS AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE FEED WILL LOSE
MUCH OF THIS PUNCH AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, WHERE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS RECEIVED UP TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW AS OF THIS MORNING,
WITH SOME OF THESE AREAS ON TRACK TO RECEIVE AT LEAST ANOTHER FOOT
OF SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS STORM, WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA INTO MONO COUNTY. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL AROUND TAHOE AND NORTHEAST
CA FOOTHILLS WEST OF US-395. WESTERN NV HAS LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE
OF SEEING UP TO 1" OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS NEAR/ABOVE 5000 FEET
AS THE MOISTURE BANDS FADE OUT BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE WITH SIERRA CREST RIDGE GUSTS AROUND 80
MPH SO FAR. THE SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NV HAVE
LIMITED THE WIND INCREASE SO FAR INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL RAMP UP AS THESE SHOWERS
DIMINISH. THE PEAK WINDS WILL COME IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IN THE WARNING AREAS BETWEEN
9 PM AND 6 AM. FOR MORE DETAILS ON WIND SPEEDS AND IMPACTS ACROSS
EASTERN CA AND WESTERN NV, SEE OUR LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND
ADVISORY STATEMENTS.
FOR THURSDAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN FAR
NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA TRAVELS
ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON, WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 1
INCH. ELSEWHERE, DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL (HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S) WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY NW-N WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THOSE WHO GOT AN EARLY START
ON GARDENING DURING THE MARCH HEAT EVENT, BE SURE TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S FOR THE SIERRA AND HIGHER VALLEYS, AND 20S-NEAR 30 FOR
LOWER VALLEYS.
BY FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OFF THE CA COAST, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING NE-E BREEZES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
INCREASED RIDGE TOP GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE SIERRA CREST.
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE AREA DUE TO THESE WINDS WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S, WITH LOWS AGAIN DIPPING NEAR
THE FREEZING MARK IN LOWER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THIS EASTER WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
MOVING INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID 70S
FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS AND 60S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS FOR EASTER MORNING ACTIVITIES BEFORE THE QUICK WARMUP DURING
THE DAY.
THE NEXT STORM TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE E SIERRA/WESTERN NV
ARRIVES AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOOKING WEAKER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT STORM, BRINGING 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST CA AND THE SIERRA, AND 10-20% CHANCES FOR WESTERN NV,
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR EARLY APRIL AVERAGES FOR
MID-LATE WEEK. MJD
AVIATION
* STRONG SW WINDS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD TURBULENCE/LLWS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH PEAK SURFACE GUSTS
40-50+ KT AT MAIN TERMINALS AND FL100 GUSTS 80-100 KT. WINDS
SHIFT TO NW WITH GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING THURSDAY
NIGHT. A SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY EAST RIDGE TOP/FL100 WINDS TO 35
KT CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LIGHTER EAST WINDS AT THE MAIN
TERMINALS.
* FOR THE TAHOE AREA TERMINALS (KTRK/KTVL), SHRA WILL TRANSITION
TO SHSN TONIGHT AS SOON AS 03Z BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
IFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE NEAR/AFTER 08Z AS THE COLDER AIR MASS
ARRIVES, THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH 12Z WITH UP TO 2" OF SNOW
ACCUMULATING ON RUNWAYS. FARTHER SOUTH AT KMMH, THE SHOWER
CHANCES ARE LOWER, WITH PERIODS OF -SHRA/-SHSN MAINLY BETWEEN
03Z-09Z AND RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1" OR LESS.
* FOR WESTERN NV TERMINALS, -SHRA WILL MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, AND AGAIN AFTER 08Z THROUGH 12Z, WITH A
10-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN BUT NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ON PAVED SURFACES.
MJD
AVALANCHE
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
* SNOW LEVELS, RATES, AND AMOUNTS: LARGE SPREAD IN SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN TODAY. FOR ESAC, LEVELS RISE TO
7.5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6.5 KFT AFTER
SUNSET. FOR BAC, MOSTLY RANGING BETWEEN 5-6 KFT, DROPPING
STEADILY BELOW 5 KFT THIS EVENING. FOR SAC AND THE TAHOE BASIN,
ANYWHERE FROM 4.5-5.5 KFT TODAY, WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DROPPING BACK OFF. RATES WILL BE THE HIGHEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH UP TO 1.5"/HR FOR SAC TERRAIN, OTHERWISE <1"/HR. NEW SNOW
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 8-14", LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST OF THE TAHOE BASIN. OTHERWISE 4-8" FOR BAC AND 2-6" FOR
ESAC.
* SWE AND SLRS: SWE WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE TAHOE BASIN, WITH
1-1.25" ALONG THE CREST. OTHERWISE, 0.5-1" FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA, LOCALLY LOWER AS YOU PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. ESAC TERRAIN
WILL SEE 0.1-0.3" OF SWE WITH 0.2-0.6" FOR BAC. SLRS WILL
INCREASE AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT, FROM 8-10:1 TO
10-12:1.
* WIND GUSTS: VERY STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED, RANGING
FROM 100-120 MPH, MOST NOTABLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
-GIRALTE
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND
WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS COULD LIMIT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES FOR A FEW HOURS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR WEST CENTRAL
NV SOUTH OF US-50 AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN MONO COUNTY, WHERE LITTLE
OR NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED SO FAR WITH THIS WEEK'S STORMS.
RECENT WARMTH AND ERODING SNOWPACK EXPOSING AREAS OF VEGETATION
MAY HAVE ALLOWED SOME FUELS TO BECOME RECEPTIVE TO SPARKS, AND
HIGH WINDS COULD CARRY SPARKS INTO THOSE RECEPTIVE FUELS.
FOR THE WESTERN NV SIERRA FRONT, MOST AREAS RECEIVED WETTING
RAINFALL SINCE YESTERDAY, WHILE RECENT AND ONGOING RAIN/SNOW IN
THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV SHOULD HELP REDUCE FIRE
CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION, THE STRONG WINDS TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE AN ELEVATED
RISK OF CARRYING SPARKS INTO ISOLATED POCKETS OF DRIER VEGETATION.
MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ001-004-005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY NVZ002.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ070.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ071-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THURSDAY CAZ072.
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