010
FXUS65 KREV 132050
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1250 PM PST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THIS WEEK WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLOWLY TO ABOVE AVERAGE FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD.
* LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL KEEP HAZY SKIES AND AIR
QUALITY REDUCTIONS THIS WEEK, WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN SOME
SIERRA VALLEYS.
* SIERRA RIDGES CAN EXPECT PERIODIC BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS
WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND AGAIN BY
LATE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
IN THE LATEST FORECAST RUNS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUING TO RESIDE OVER THE CWA TODAY AND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT MOVES BACK OVER THE PACNW LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE PROGRESSES MORE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN BEHIND
IT AND OVER THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US BELOW IS THAT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THOUGH IT IS
LOOKING TO TAKE A BRIEF PAUSE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS FORECAST
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
WARMING TREND THEN RESUMES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS ARE IN THE FORECAST WITH
SOME AREAS EVEN REACHING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. ONE AREA THAT MIGHT
SEE SOME LESSER DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
AROUND MONO LAKE DUE TO FOGGY CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP THE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR KEEP
HAZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY ESPECIALLY
AROUND URBAN AREAS. ASIDE FROM THE MONO LAKE AREA, PATCHY
FREEZING FOG IS TO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING AROUND
TRUCKEE AND THE MARTIS VALLEY. OTHER VALLEY AREAS MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG, BUT THERE IS LESSER
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
WHILE LESSER WINDS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, A STEADY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-35 MPH RANGE IN THE SIERRA
RIDGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST GUIDANCE PROJECTS A POSSIBLE
SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE 700 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MAY ALLOW
FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF RIDGE GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40+ MPH TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING INTO THE EXTENDED TERM, SOME OF THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE POSSIBLY BY THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME FOR THIS
CHANGE AS OTHER MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT YET, SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS GOING FORWARD AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD
RETURN WITH THIS FOLLOWING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. -078
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED AT MOST AREA TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
STATEMENT LOOKS TO BE AT KTRK WHERE FREEZING FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING DROPPING CONDITIONS TO
IFR/LIFR. HAZE DUE TO INVERSIONS IN THE AREA CONTINUES THROUGH
TODAY WHICH MAY LOWER SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES.
E/NE FL100 WIND GUSTS WILL EASE BACK TO BELOW 30 KT FOR MUCH OF
TODAY, BUT THEN INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AGAIN OVER THE SIERRA CREST
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEADING TO AREAS OF TURBULENCE
FOR FLIGHTS CROSSING THE SIERRA. -078/MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page