506
FXUS65 KREV 151913
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1213 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTERNOON WINDS PEAK WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR
FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION, AND RECREATION.
* 10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR NORTHERN WASHOE AND LASSEN COUNTIES.
* WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CYCLING OFF
THE COAST OF WASHINGTON. THAT LOW IS PROJECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE PUSHING NORTHEAST BY LATE
THURSDAY. WE CAN EXPECT THIS LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES PRIMARILY SOUTH
OF I-80. DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW, WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY,
WHICH DIFFERS FROM OUR TYPICAL WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH, WITH 50-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE
RIDGETOPS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
STRONGER WINDS, COUPLED WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING ISOLATED SHOWER
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10-15%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG FAR NORTHERN LASSEN COUNTY. PWAT VALUES
FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGE FROM 0.3-0.6" SO THERE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. STORM CHANCES INCREASE
THURSDAY (20-35%) FOR MUCH OF LASSEN COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY NORTH OF PYRAMID LAKE. THERE'S ALSO A LOW
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN THE SAME AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING REMAINS LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 70S FOR VALLEYS AND UPPER 60S
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN ENSUE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
MID 80S FOR LOWER VALLEYS AND UPPER 70S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES
AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE TODAY, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS. WINDS
PEAK WEDNESDAY, GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS, AND WILL INTRODUCE PERIODS
OF LLWS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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