854
FXUS65 KREV 040819
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
119 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TYPICAL JULY HEAT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS POSING MINOR FIRE AND RECREATION IMPACTS.
* MOSTLY DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH LOW CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HEAT RISK POSSIBLE LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WESTERN US RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN TYPICAL JULY HEAT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK WITH MODERATE HEATRISK SPREADING INTO
LOWER W NV VALLEYS--PARTLY DUE TO NIGHTTIME LOWS NEAR THE MID
60S. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON, POSING
MINOR FIRE AND RECREATION IMPACTS.
THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A LOW PROBABILITY (10-15%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT A MORE SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA AND NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE LOW
(I.E., FROM TAHOE-RENO NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER) HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RESIDES ACROSS THE SURPRISE VALLEY
AND N WASHOE COUNTY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
DEEPENING OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL REINTRODUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEK, EXTENDING VERY WARM, DRY, AND
BREEZY WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND PRECLUDES SHOWER/STORM
FORMATION FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES, AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMER AS DAYTIME HIGHS ARE SLATED TO FLIRT WITH
90F NEAR THE SIERRA AND 100F FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD. THE LATTER IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE,
BUT WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON AS WE HEAD TO MID-JULY.
-SALAS
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH ONLY A 10-15% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KTRK-KTVL-KMMH. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT MORNING WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TYPICAL WEST GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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