563
FXUS65 KREV 161929
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1229 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
* AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TODAY AND FRIDAY,
LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND MINOR IMPACTS TO
AVIATION AND RECREATION.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK,
RENEWING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
THE BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN DRIER SW FLOW OVER THE SIERRA AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US IS TILTING TO THE DRIER SCENARIO
FOR EASTERN CA-WESTERN NV THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE A COUPLE OF PASSING SHOWERS (5-10% CHANCE) ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE BASIN & RANGE (MINERAL, CHURCHILL,
PERSHING COUNTIES) LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL
EDGE UPWARD WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR FAR NORTHEAST CA-
NORTHWEST NV SOUTHWARD TO THE RENO-CARSON VICINITY. AS MINIMUM
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TRENDS LOWER TO THE 8-12% RANGE, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-80 TO THE OREGON BORDER, ISOLATED AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. BY SATURDAY, THE
WINDS EASE BACK TO A MORE TYPICAL ZEPHYR BREEZE WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH WHILE HUMIDITY WON'T BE QUITE AS LOW. SEASONAL MID-JULY
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER
90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER-MID 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
FOR SUNDAY, A RETURN OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF US-95.
MEANWHILE, A LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER FROM US-95 EASTWARD
COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE WARMING FOR THIS PART OF WEST CENTRAL
NV, WITH ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE FOR HIGHS REACHING 100 DEGREES.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING LESS FAVORABLE FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
SUNDAY EVENING-NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA, NORTHEAST CA AND FAR
WESTERN NV, ALTHOUGH WITH LIMITED FORCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THIS TIME FRAME ARE LOOKING SPARSE.
NEXT WEEK FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, A SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DIRECT A DEEPER PUSH OF MONSOON-TYPE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE CURRENTLY FAVORING THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV SOUTH OF US-50 (20-35% CHANCE), WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY (10-20% CHANCE) SPREADING NORTH OF US-50 THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO FAVOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/CENTRAL US COULD INCREASE UPPER
LEVEL FORCING OVER OUR REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH
THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS PRECIP DUE TO VARIED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE KEY WEATHER FEATURES. TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEK WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S
FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S NEAR THE SIERRA, ALTHOUGH HIGHS
COULD BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN SOME AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK IF A
CLOUDY/SHOWERY SETUP PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. NIGHTS
LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK (LOWS IN THE
60S-NEAR 70 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS/LOWER-MID 50S NEAR THE SIERRA)
FROM THIS SAME INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES INTO SATURDAY,
AND A MORE WIDESPREAD SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVING BY
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SW-W WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AT MOST MAIN
TERMINALS TODAY AND FRIDAY (EXCEPT A LITTLE LIGHTER AT KTVL),
RAMPING UP BETWEEN 20-22Z AND WINDING DOWN BETWEEN 03-05Z. WIND
GUSTS DECREASE A BIT ACROSS THE MAIN TERMINALS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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