378
FXUS65 KREV 110723
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1223 AM PDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LATE SPRING TO EARLY SUMMER WARMTH WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL ABOVE MID-MARCH NORMALS.
* LONGER RANGE OUTLOOKS STRONGLY FAVOR DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
GOING THROUGH AT LEAST THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH.
DISCUSSION
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME TODAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THEN MORE NOTABLE GAINS WILL SHOW
UP STARTING THURSDAY AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD. THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NW WILL KEEP THIS RIDGE CENTER IN A SIMILAR LOCATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY (MID-UPPER 70S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 60S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES) WITH LIGHT PM BREEZES. ONE SMALL EXCEPTION IS
SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH BRUSHES BY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PM
BREEZES AND A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING NORTH OF I-80 TO THE OREGON
BORDER.
THIS WARMUP THEN CLIMBS TO ANOTHER LEVEL FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER MUCH OF CA/NV. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE BLENDED GUIDANCE DATA LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
UPPER 80S FOR WARMER VALLEYS OF WESTERN NV TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THAT RENO'S CURRENT RECORD HIGH FOR ANY DATE IN MARCH IS 83
DEGREES (3/31/1966), THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE UNCHARTED TERRITORY
FOR THE CLIMATE HISTORY OF WESTERN NV CITIES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OTHER GUIDANCE SOURCES INCLUDING TRADITIONAL MODEL STATISTICS AND
ESTIMATES OF AFTERNOON HIGHS BASED ON MIXING 700 MB TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ARE NOT QUITE AS EXTREME, BUT EVEN THOSE
PROJECTIONS OF LOWER 80S WOULD STILL SET DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR AT
LEAST MARCH 16-18. FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES, HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO
PUSH ABOVE 70 DEGREES FROM MONDAY ONWARD. THE EVENTUAL LOCATION
AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER WILL LIKELY BRING
FLUCTUATIONS IN HOW WARM WE COULD GET, BUT IT WON'T CHANGE THE BIG
PICTURE OF VERY WARM AND PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE 3RD WEEK OF MARCH. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY, THEN AFTERNOON WEST BREEZES WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
RETURN THURS-FRI. WINDS MAY THEN EDGE UPWARD A BIT FOR SATURDAY
WITH W-NW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
FOR NEXT WEEK, PREPARE FOR RISING DENSITY ALTITUDES AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS SURPASS 80 DEGREES AT WESTERN NV TERMINALS STARTING
MONDAY. MJD
HYDROLOGY
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING EARLY
SNOWMELT LEADING TO DIURNAL INCREASES IN STREAMFLOWS. MELT WILL
ACCELERATE NEXT WEEK WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WHILE
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL BE RUNNING FAST AND COLD, FLOWS WILL
REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD IMPACT LEVELS. THIS LEVEL OF SNOW MELT
WILL GREATLY REDUCE LATE SPRING TO EARLY SUMMER WATER SUPPLY
CONDITIONS.
-BARDSLEY/MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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