929
FXUS65 KREV 132204
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
204 PM PST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT
IN SIERRA VALLEYS. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER STORM.
* WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS SIERRA RIDGELINES SATURDAY, FURTHER
STRENGTHENING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
* SNOW MOVES INTO THE SIERRA SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOWER ELEVATION SNOW IS ON THE TABLE BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
* GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS AND THE ONLY ITEM OF CONCERN AREAS OF FREEZING FOG
OVERNIGHT IN SIERRA VALLEYS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS TIME, BECAUSE
WE'RE GEARING UP FOR WHAT LOOKS LIKE THE BIGGEST STORM WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE AROUND CHRISTMAS, AND UNLIKE THE OTHER STORMS WE HAVE
DEALT WITH SO FAR THIS YEAR, IT WILL BE COLD!
* WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SIERRA SATURDAY, FURTHER
STRENGTHENING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHILE A FEW LOWER ELEVATION
SITES WILL SEE WIND INCREASES BY LATE MONDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY. THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
TO EXCEED 40 MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS, HIGHEST FOR THE WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS, AND EXPOSED SIERRA RIDGES WILL GUST OVER 100 MPH AT
TIMES. THIS WILL BRING ROUGH AIR FOR AVIATION INTERESTS, AND
DIFFICULTIES FOR THOSE RECREATING IN THE SIERRA.
* GETTING TO THE SIERRA FOR THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE EASY
(WELL, AT LEAST AS FAR AS THE WEATHER GOES...), BUT THE QUESTION
IS CAN YOU MAKE IT HOME AS CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE? THERE
WILL BE A MULTI-DAY PERIOD WITH SNOW IMPACTS STARTING SUNDAY
EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE SHORT-LIVED BREAKS HERE AND THEN BETWEEN WAVES
OF THE STORM ACTIVITY, BUT THOSE TIMING DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE
IRONED OUT AS WE NEAR THE EVENT.
* FOR NOW, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL PUSH INTO THE SIERRA
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. BETWEEN THE RATES OF
SNOWFALL AND WIND, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS
IN THE SIERRA. ANTICIPATE LONG TRAVEL DELAYS AND/OR POTENTIAL ROAD
CLOSURES. CHECK WITH OUR PARTNERS AT NDOT AND/OR CALTRANS FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.
* PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED 3 FEET IN THE SIERRA FROM THIS STORM ARE
AROUND 90%, WITH 50TH PERCENTILE TOTALS PUSHING 2 TO 5 FEET IN
MOST SIERRA LOCATIONS. WE'RE ALSO SEEING EC EFI FOR SNOWFALL
LIGHTING UP MORE AND MORE WITH EACH MODEL RUN FOR A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD. ALL TRAVEL ROUTES IN THE SIERRA WILL BE IMPACTED BY SNOW
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS A COLDER STORM, WITH
ORIGINS FROM ALASKA, SO SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP BELOW 3000 FEET BY
TUESDAY, LEADING TO LARGE AREAS OF SNOW-COVERED ROADS IN THE
SIERRA AND NOT JUST THE TYPICAL PASS-LEVEL IMPACTS.
* AS FAR AS "DOWN HERE", WE WILL START WITH RAIN, BUT NBM P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES HEAVILY FAVOR SNOW BY MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING
MONDAY. WE'RE SEEING A SOLID 80-90% PROBABILITY OF 2+" OF SNOW
FOR FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AND AROUND VIRGINIA CITY, WITH 25-60% FOR
THE GREATER RENO/CARSON METRO AREAS. FURTHER EAST, THERE WILL BE
LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND SNOW, BUT CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE
SNOW (0.1"+) STILL EXCEED 60%. THE COMMUTES WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK (90% FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE).
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DROP OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO
AROUND 20-40%, BUT METEOGRAMS STILL SHOW CHANCES FOR SNOW AT
TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.
-DAWN
AVIATION
* WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING OVER THE MOUNTAIN TOPS. OVERNIGHT, FREEZING
FOG WILL FORM IN SIERRA VALLEYS, INCLUDING KTRK, WHICH IS LIKELY
TO BE LIFR 07Z-17Z.
* SSW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FL100
WINDS AROUND 30 KTS SATURDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 50 KTS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ROUGH AIR DOWNWIND OF THE SIERRA.
* MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SEE MAIN DISCUSSION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
- DAWN
AVALANCHE
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN
LATE THIS WEEKEND, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. DETAILS
ON ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE SHARED AS HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. HERE'S WHAT WE CAN KNOW FOR NOW...
* SNOW LOOKS TO PUSH INTO SACS TERRAIN SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
INTENSITIES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
ESAC/BAC, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LATER SUNDAY EVENING TO BEGIN,
WITH THE HIGHEST RATES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. KEEP
IN MIND THAT THE TIMING OF THIS STORM HAS BEEN SLOWING, BUT HAS
AT LEAST BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT THE PAST 24 OR SO HOURS.
* SNOW TOTALS AT THE 50TH PERCENTILE ARE 2 TO 5 FEET IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY FOR SAC, WITH 18 TO 30 INCHES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR
ESAC 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE HIGH SIERRA, WITH 15 TO 30 INCHES CLOSER
TO US-395.
* SNOW LEVELS WILL CRASH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, STARTING NEAR 5500-
6000 FEET AND RAPIDLY FALLING BELOW 4000 FEET. SLRS AT THE STORMS
ONSET WILL BE 8-10:1, TRANSITIONING TO A MORE POWDERY 12-14:1 AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES.
* SWE ESTIMATES PER 50TH PERCENTILE GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN THE 2-4"
RANGE IN THE SIERRA, WITH 1-3" FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE ON WESTERN SLOPES TO THE CREST WHICH HAVE A 60%
CHANCE TO EXCEED 4".
* WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE RIDGELINES THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PEAKING MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH PEAK SIERRA GUSTS 100+ MPH. LOWER
AREAS OF THE TERRAIN TO SEE WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE SSW.
-DAWN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
NVZ002.
CA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
CAZ071>073.
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