669
FXUS65 KREV 111855
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1155 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS EXPECTED TODAY.
* MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY, DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS BACK TO MANY AREAS
SUNDAY.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH FREEZES AND
POSSIBLE MORNING FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS. GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THERE ARE LOTS OF CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS MORNING
FROM LAST NIGHT'S SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RECENT SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SPINS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SOME SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALONG THE
OREGON BORDER (CHANCES 30-80%). ELSEWHERE, THE TAHOE BASIN WILL SEE
CHANCES RANGING 20-40%, WITH HIGHER VALUES SOUTH OF US-50 (40-50%).
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING, BRINGING NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SIERRA, SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS PEAKS ABOVE 10,500 FT.,
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE LOW WILL BEGIN IT'S EASTWARD TREK ON
FRIDAY, LOWERING OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AS IT EXITS. FRIDAY'S
CHANCES (15-40%) WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE SIERRA IN ALPINE AND MONO
COUNTIES, WITH SOME EASTWARD EXPANSION INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE
WHERE CHANCES WILL BE AROUND 15-20%.
SMOKY AND HAZY SKIES WILL BE LESSER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY VALLEYS. SINCE
THE SMOKE PRODUCTION IS DICTATED BY FIRE BEHAVIOR, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CHECK IN
ON YOUR LOCAL AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS BY LOGGING ONTO
FIRE.AIRNOW.GOV.
SATURDAY BRINGS A DRYING AND SUBTLE WARMING TREND AS A RELATIVELY
MINOR RIDGE MOVES ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC. THE LACK OF WET WEATHER
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS WE SEE SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING ALONG THE
OREGON BORDER FOR SUNDAY. FOR POINTS SOUTH OF THE OREGON BORDER, AN
UPTICK IN BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM A TRANSIENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE GONE NEARLY AS FAST AS IT ARRIVED. THE
VARIABILITY IN THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS LETS US KNOW THAT THE FALL,
OR SHOULDER SEASON IS UPON US.
WE DRY OUT AND WARM SLIGHTLY ONCE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
IS A SMALL DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES THAT DEPICTED
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY. THIS MAY OSCILLATE AS THE MODELING
WORKS OUT THE SIGNALS OF FALL, WHICH CAN BRING BRUSH-BY SLIDERS MUCH
LIKE THE STYLE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. DETAILS MAY
CHANGE, STAY TUNED AS WE WORK THINGS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
HRICH
AVIATION
* KMMH WILL SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING FOR ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. THERE MAY BE
TERRAIN OBSCURATION NEAR THICK CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY. CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE 21Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME (35-40% FOR KMMH), BUT SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
NIGHTTIME. KTRK MAY SEE FG BUILD IN TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.
* ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY, EXCEPT WHERE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, WHEN MVFR MAY ARRIVE.
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY INCLUDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION IN THICK CLOUD COVER. SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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