823  
FXUS65 KREV 262242  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
242 PM PST WED FEB 26 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK  
OVER WESTERN NEVADA AND THE SIERRA WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT  
WINDS, AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL  
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND  
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW. DRIER WEATHER WITH AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS THIS PERSISTENT  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES,  
LIGHT WINDS, AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR  
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE  
EAST MAKING WAY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DROP FROM THE NORTH IMPACTING  
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSES  
SOUTHWARD. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE  
UPPER 60S, CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO  
MID 60S FOR THE SIERRA.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE  
REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE IN  
INTENSITY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE REGION-WIDE. WIND  
PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE HWY 395 CORRIDOR NEAR THE HONEY LAKE  
BASIN, WASHOE VALLEY, AND THROUGH MONO COUNTY AS WELL AS US-95  
NEAR WALKER LAKE CAN EXPERIENCE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THIS TIME  
PERIOD. THE SIERRA RIDGES COULD SEE GUSTS OF 50-70 MPH. ROUGH  
CONDITIONS ON LAKE TAHOE AND PYRAMID LAKE ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES  
ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SUFFICIENT  
MIXING FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, BUT NOT AS WARM AS FRIDAY.  
 
RECENT DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW PRESSURE  
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY,  
FOLLOWING ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE TROUGH WHERE THE  
MOST LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE  
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THIS FORECAST CYCLE DUE TO HIGHER  
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA  
AND WESTERN NEVADA, PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY WILL START OUT AS  
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TURNING OVER TO ALL SNOW POST-  
FRONTAL AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS BY EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY  
BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION ENTIRELY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
AS FOR POTENTIAL SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION, 6-10 INCHES ALONG  
THE SIERRA CREST AND 2-5 INCHES AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO  
COUNTY IS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING. FOR WESTERN NEVADA, AROUND A  
HALF AN INCH IS FORECAST AS OF NOW, BUT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE  
OF HIGHER TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF  
ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH MOST GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTING MORE OF A 'SLIDER' TYPE SYSTEM. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY,  
MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON SUNDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS DRIVING  
CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA PASSES AS WELL AS AREA ROADWAYS AROUND  
THE RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN METRO AREAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE  
INTO EARLY MONDAY. TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTION DRIVING SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
AS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN OUR  
REGION FOR AT LEAST A FEW WEEKS NOW.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S, LOW 40S ON  
SUNDAY WITH BLUSTERY POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS. -LAGUARDIA  
 
   
LONG TERM...NEXT WEEK
 
 
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT IT WILL REMAIN COOL NEXT WEEK UNDER  
NORTHWEST FLOW. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND  
SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DROPPING  
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS AND THEY LOOK GUSTY ON THE BACKSIDE  
SUNDAY NIGHT. SIERRA CREST RIDGE GUSTS COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 100  
MPH FROM NEAR SOUTH LAKE TAHOE THROUGH MAMMOTH. IT IS A GOOD SETUP  
FOR THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT IT LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE ONE AT  
THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY, NOT THE BIG ONE ON THE 9TH-10TH.  
 
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER  
SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
RIGHT NOW, THE PROBABILITIES ARE QUITE LOW FOR ANY PRECIP IN WESTERN  
NEVADA. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK TO REINFORCE THE COLD AIR A BIT. FOR  
NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE HELD STEADY AS IT COULD BE MORE OF A GLANCING  
BLOW, BUT THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE IT WILL BE A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES  
COLDER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED FOR WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT, IT DOES  
LOOK LIKE A WARMUP IS IN STORE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. X  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. RIDGE WINDS INCREASE  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AREAWIDE SATURDAY. LOCAL  
LLWS AND MTN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL OCCUR WITH THESE WINDS. THE COLD  
FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A  
2-3 HR PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN -SN FOCUSED  
FROM I-80 SOUTHWARD. X  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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