762
FXUS65 KREV 230837
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
112 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
AREA WATERWAYS CONTINUE TO RUN DANGEROUSLY COLD AND SWIFT.
* SHOWER CHANCES SHIFT MAINLY SOUTH OF US-50 THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
MONO COUNTY.
* GUSTY WINDS WILL POSE AVIATION, RECREATION, AND FIRE IMPACTS
MONDAY WITH COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
.DISCUSSION…
WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S ACROSS WESTERN
NEVADA AND THE MID-70S IN SIERRA VALLEYS. A GRADUAL INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND SOUTHWARD INTO MONO COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
ZEPHYR WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH. BY SUNDAY, SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS MONO COUNTY TO 40-50%, ALONG WITH A 15-20%
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATTENTION TURNS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
A POTENT, MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION,
WHICH MAY FOCUS THE STRONGEST WINDS ON MONDAY, NORTHWARD OF I-80,
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, THESE
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, MAINLY
WHERE FINE FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
AND ELEVATED WINDS MAY PROLONG FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS INCLUDE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, CROSSWINDS AFFECTING HIGH-
PROFILE VEHICLES, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST DOWNWIND OF DESERT SINKS,
AND INCREASED AVIATION TURBULENCE.
THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL, REACHING THE 60S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND THE 50S IN THE
SIERRA VALLEYS. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND PATH OF THE SYSTEM ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN, IT IS LIKELY TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST E.SIERRA AND W.NEVADA TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. KMMH AND KHTH COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z WITH BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND
GUSTY OUTFLOWS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-20%) WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AT KMMH WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR CONDITIONS FROM BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL, SUDDEN/STRONG WIND SHIFTS, AND LIGHTNING.
FUENTES
.FIRE WEATHER…
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SWEEP THROUGH NE CALIFORNIA AND W.NEVADA.
THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS INCLUDE EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY, SURPRISE
VALLEY, NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, AND THE WESTERN HUMBOLDT BASIN IN
PERSHING COUNTY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND GUSTS OF 30–35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, WITH UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY.
FUEL CONDITIONS REMAIN THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY. WHILE FUEL
CONTINUITY IS VARIABLE, REPORTS FROM DISPATCH CENTERS/GACC
INDICATE THAT CURED GRASSES AND SAGEBRUSH IN FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA
VALLEYS AND MID-SLOPES CAN SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. FARTHER SOUTH,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER DUE TO LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES,COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
SALAS/FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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