230  
FXUS65 KREV 160904  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
204 AM PDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM  
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL LATE DAY WINDS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
FORECAST THIS WEEK WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING. THAT  
COULD CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  
BUILDS, ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PAC NW WILL MAINTAIN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT  
OVER W NEVADA AND THE SIERRA THIS WEEK. SO FOR THE MOST PART WEATHER  
WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AND REASONABLY DECENT CONSIDERING IT'S MID-JULY AND  
OUR CLIMO FOR PEAK TEMPS. TYPICAL GUSTY AFTERNOON-EVENING WINDS CAN BE  
EXPECTED WITH SOME SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT NOT  
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
SOME CLIMATE NOTES: WITH WESTERN TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATING WE HAVE YET  
TO OFFICIALLY HIT 100 AT RNO THIS SUMMER. BUT WE'RE NOW INTO THE  
TYPICAL TIMEFRAME WHERE THAT IS MOST LIKELY. SINCE 1995 OUR AVERAGE  
FIRST/LAST 100+ DATES ARE JULY 6 AND AUGUST 4 RESPECTIVELY WITH THE  
LATEST SEPTEMBER 4, 2017. SO PLENTY OF TIME LEFT TO SEE SOME 100+  
DAYS.  
 
-CHRIS  
   
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
 
 
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS CYCLE WAS TO ADD A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY LATE  
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY STARTS TO GIVE  
WAY TO A BUILDING RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE MODEL  
SIMULATIONS PERSIST IN DROPPING A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS  
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY  
LIFTING IT OUT LATE SATURDAY. THIS WOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL  
WINDS...BUT HAVE NO FURTHER IMPACT ON THE WEATHER.  
 
THE ECMWF AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE NOW JOINED HE GFS IN  
BUILDING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  
THIS WOULD HAVE TWO MAIN EFFECTS AND ONE RESIDUAL ONE: NAMELY...A  
BUILDING RIDGE WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AND  
AND INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT COULD FLOW  
BACK NORTH INTO OUR REGION. WE HAVE ALLOWED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO  
DRIFT UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FIRST EFFECT. THE  
SECOND EFFECT WOULD ALSO MEAN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR HIGH BASED  
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY  
INCREASES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY. COVERAGE WAS INCREASED A BIT FOR MONDAY WHEN COMPARED TO  
SUNDAY. SUNDAY ACTIVITY WOULD ALSO BE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE  
IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE SO DRY  
LIGHTNING BECOMES A CONCERN AS IT RELATES TO FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. XX  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH TYPICAL DAYTIME WINDS  
OF 20-25 KTS MOST DAYS. THE TYPICAL HEATING DRIVEN TURBULENCE IS  
LIKELY EACH DAY FROM ROUGHLY 20 UTC THROUGH 04 UTC. WE DO NOT  
FORESEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WORK WEEK...BUT WE ARE SEEING  
BETTER INDICATIONS THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY  
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. REV  
 

 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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