202
FXUS65 KREV 152155
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
155 PM PST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURN THIS AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
* A COLDER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND BREEZY WINDS.
* COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS QUEUE UP IN THE PACIFIC.
DISCUSSION
A LOW OFF THE S CA COAST WILL DRIVE MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH
TODAY AS IT TRACKS INLAND, ALLOWING FOR HIGH SNOW LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON (ABOVE 9000 FT). THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP FOR W NV MAY
START AS EARLY AS 2 PM TODAY BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AS
SOME HIGH RES MODELS HINT AT A LOCALIZED POCKET OF DRY AIR AHEAD
OF THE MAIN MOISTURE SURGE. THIS MAY DELAY THE MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS FOR W NV UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
NORTH, THE PRECIP WILL ACQUIRE A MORE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS SWITCH WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT, AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SPEAKING OF MIDNIGHT, THIS IS AROUND WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLUMMET SIGNIFICANTLY, DROPPING NEARLY 3000 FT FROM
~10 PM TO ~4 AM.
OUR FRIENDS IN MAMMOTH AND ALONG THE E SIERRA WILL SEE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES, EXPECTED TO OCCUR MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, COINCIDING WITH THAT SNOW LEVEL DROP. SNOW
TOTALS ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF MONO COUNTY TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM 6-12 INCHES. AS FOR THE TAHOE BASIN, THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD
SEE 10-16 INCHES. THE CORRESPONDING LIQUID TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM
1-1.3" ALONG THE SIERRA WITH 0.2-0.5" ACROSS W NV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
A SECOND, COLDER SYSTEM IS COMING IN ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAINFALL FOR W NV LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO HUG THE SIERRA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM IS DROPPING IN
FROM OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, BRINGING COLDER AIR, WHICH
WILL HELP TO KEEP SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FT. THIS WILL
BRING SNOWFALL OF 8-12" IN THE TAHOE BASIN AND 10-16" ALONG THE E
SIERRA. THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING (AS EARLY AS 2 AM); IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LINGERING SNOW ON THE ROADS OR,
IF THE ROADS ARE WET, COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO MAKE ROADS
SLICK. WHAT COULD THROW A WRENCH IN THIS FORECAST, THOUGH, IS IF
THE LOW SWINGS FURTHER SOUTH (LIKE THIS SYSTEM WE HAVE TODAY).
THAT COULD BRING SNOW LEVELS HIGHER, NEARLY NEGATING EVERYTHING I
JUST STATED. IT'S NOT WINTER YET; WE'RE DEFINITELY STILL IN
"SHOULDER SEASON."
COOL TEMPERATURES WITH DRIER CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH A THIRD SYSTEM MAY BRING IMPACTS AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THOSE IMPACTS AND DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING. AS
OF THIS WRITING, THE RENO INTL AIRPORT HAS YET TO HIT A LOW OF 32F
THIS SEASON. WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH COULD VERY WELL BE THE DATE
WE REACH 32F, WITH A 70% CHANCE OF HITTING 32F OR LOWER.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
SHRA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO IMPACT KMMH THIS AFTERNOON. KTVL/KTRK
CAN EXPECT SHRA TO PICK UP MAINLY AFTER 16/00Z, BECOMING
PERSISTENT AFTER 16/07Z. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR,
WITH LOCALIZED LIFR, CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY FOR ALL
SIERRA TERMINALS. SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS CAN EXPECT CIGS/VIS DOWN
TO MVFR TODAY WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND -SHRA.
SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT (~6500 FEET), WITH A SWITCHOVER
TO SNOW AROUND 16/08-16/10Z SUNDAY FOR KMMH AND 16/14Z FOR KTVL.
FOR KTRK, THERE'S A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO SWITCHOVER TO
SNOW (30% CHANCE OF SNOW). UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF HEAVY, WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR KMMH/KTVL THROUGH SUNDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH GUSTS BELOW 20 KT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST BREEZES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FL100 WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT THE REST OF THE DAY. PERIODS OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE MAY DEVELOP WITH THE INCREASING FL100
WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY.
-GIRALTE/EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
MONDAY CAZ072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST
SUNDAY CAZ073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page