702  
FXUS65 KREV 100932  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
232 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
* BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH POTENTIAL RECREATION,  
AVIATION, AND LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.  
 
* A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
* ANOTHER STORM ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE COLD  
TEMPERATURES, BUT WITH BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN  
SNOW.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS THAT  
WILL BE AFFECTING US FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS ARRIVES TODAY. ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW,  
SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH  
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH IN VALLEYS, WIND PRONE LOCATIONS TO 35-45  
MPH, AND SIERRA CREST 65-85 MPH TO PERSIST TODAY. LOCALIZED FIRE  
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF MONO AND MINERAL COUNTY AS  
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES 5-10% COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,  
BUT REMAINS BELOW 15%. OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED TO THE WINDS WILL  
BE TO RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN THE LAKES, MAINLY TAHOE AND  
PYRAMID AS CHOPPY WATERS LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.  
ALSO IF YOU ARE DRIVING IN THE NV BASIN AND RANGE, PATCHY BLOWING  
DUST FROM PLAYAS AND DRY LAKE BEDS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  
 
RAIN ARRIVES TO OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS  
THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OVER PORTIONS OF  
NE CA. IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY AS IT REACHES WESTERN NV EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY BELOW 0.05 INCHES IN THE SIERRA, AND VERY  
SPOTTY IN WESTERN NV. MANY PLACES MAY NOT SEE MUCH, IF ANY RAIN.  
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7-7.5 KFT BEHIND THE FRONT. SO,  
SNOW WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF MOUNTAINS  
WITH AMOUNTS BELOW 0.5 INCHES. THERE IS ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF  
EXCEEDING ONE INCH OF SNOW AT THE SIERRA CREST PEAKS. PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES DROP QUICKLY ON SATURDAY EVENING, AND AS THE SKIES CLEAR  
THE COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND.  
 
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BELOW SEASONAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND  
THE FRONT, BUT OF GREATER IMPACT WILL BE THE MORNING LOW  
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW  
FREEZING ACROSS SIERRA AND NE CA. MEANWHILE, TEMPS IN WESTERN NV  
WILL BE GENERALLY FLIRTING WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE RENO-  
SPARKS METRO AREAS HAS ONLY A 5% CHANCE OF SEEING FREEZING  
TEMPERATURES, WHILE CARSON CITY, LOVELOCK, FALLON AND YERINGTON  
HAVE A 30-45%, AND SUSANVILLE, PORTOLA AND MINDEN HAVE A 80-100%  
CHANCE OF FREEZING ON SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN BECOMES UNCERTAIN WITH THE DESCEND OF  
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DESCENDING ALONG THE MAIN STORM TRACK FROM THE  
PACNW. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS VERY DRASTIC SCENARIOS RESULTING IN  
EITHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA, OR  
LOW AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW. LATEST ECMWF EFI IS NOT SHOWING AN  
ANOMALOUS EVENT THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT THE SHIFT OF TAILS INDICATES  
SOME OUTLIER MEMBERS IN THE ENSEMBLE ARE NOT FOLLOWING THAT  
TREND. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE FORECAST NEXT  
WEEK. ANYWAY, WATCH OUT FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON MONDAY-TUESDAY  
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW. WHILE RAIN/SNOW MAY START LATE ON  
MONDAY, BUT THE DETAILS LIKE AMOUNTS AND MORE PRECISE TIMING ARE  
UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MORE DETAILS AS WE  
START RECEIVING MORE HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA.  
 
-HC  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
 
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING  
S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS  
ARE LIKELY NEAR -RA DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS, MAINLY IN THE SIERRA.  
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN TOO AFTER 03Z. EXPECT  
AREAS OF LLWS AND TURBULENCE FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY, AND  
CONTINUING OVER SIERRA TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG  
THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT ON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS  
10-30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR TAHOE AND  
W.NEVADA TERMINALS.  
 
-FUENTES/HC  
 
 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY NVZ002-004.  
 
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM PDT FRIDAY CAZ072.  
 
 
 
 
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