658  
FXUS65 KREV 142206  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
306 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH  
OF HIGHWAY 50; THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING.  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED  
EACH AFTERNOON AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOT  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. HEAT  
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS AND THOSE WITH LIMITED  
COOLING OPTIONS FOR THEIR HOMES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CENTRAL MESSAGES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE CLIMBING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER THE REGION AND DAILY  
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT AT LEAST  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH  
MODEL FORECASTS SHOWING CLOSE TO 600 DECAMETERS AT THE 500 MB  
LEVEL. THIS CORRELATES TO HOTTER CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND UPPER 80S TO  
AROUND 90 IN SIERRA VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO EFFICIENTLY COOL EACH NIGHT; LOWS ARE GENERALLY  
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND  
MID/UPPER 50S IN THE SIERRA. THESE CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE ISSUES  
FOR THOSE WORKING LONG HOURS OUTDOORS OR FOR SENSITIVE  
POPULATIONS. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT ILLNESS.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE OTHER PERVASIVE FEATURE FOR THE  
FORECAST. MOISTURE STREAMING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE  
HIGH WILL SUPPORT DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY FOR THE  
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT. HOWEVER, SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING PERIODS  
OF ENHANCEMENT FOR DAYS WHERE TROUGHS PASS CLOSE TO THE REGION.  
SUNDAY/MONDAY IS ONE PERIOD WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY  
COULD BE HIGHER. WITH PWATS INCREASING, STORMS WILL BECOME WETTER  
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL,  
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF STORMS CORES WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING NEW FIRE STARTS. PLEASE REMEMBER TO REPORT ANY SMOKE YOU  
SEE.  
 
WITH THE TROUGH PASSING CLOSE TO THE REGION SUNDAY/MONDAY, WINDS  
WILL KICK UP A LITTLE AND COULD CAUSE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAINLY  
FOR WIND PRONE LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER. OTHERWISE,  
EXPECT TYPICAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 MPH EACH AFTERNOON AS  
THE ZEPHYR FORMS.  
 
AS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE, MODELS HAVE SLIPPED 24 HRS LATER THAN  
YESTERDAY FOR THE APPROACH OF A LARGER TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN/PAC  
NW COAST. THIS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL WHEN STRONG WEATHER FEATURES ARE  
PRESENT; MODELS TEND TO PUSH CHANGE TOO QUICKLY. A LIKELY  
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST INTO THE END  
OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE STRONG GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH SHIFTS INTO  
THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND PAC NW. WHENEVER THE TROUGH DOES  
BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND, WE'LL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON WIND  
ENHANCEMENTS AND INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BOYD  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA FROM AS FAR NORTH AS  
PORTOLA SOUTH INTO MONO COUNTY AND EXTENDING OUT INTO THE SIERRA FRONT  
REGION.  
 
CHANCES/TIMING FOR TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE  
AS FOLLOWS:  
 
KRNO: 20-25%/23-03Z  
KCXP/KMEV: 25-30%/22-03Z  
KTVL: 20-25%/23-03Z  
KTRK: 20-25%/22-03Z  
KMMH: 25-30%/22-03Z  
 
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION, LOWERING CIGS/VIS, AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS  
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS WITH THE THREAT OF SMALL  
HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT  
FORM DURING THIS TIME.  
 
THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK  
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS.  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, DAILY  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM REGION-WIDE LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
AS A RESULT, THERMAL TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR WESTERN NEVADA  
SITES WITH TURBULENCE AND DENSITY ALTITUDE ISSUES FOR SIERRA  
TERMINALS. -LAGUARDIA  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO  
 
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