021
FXUS65 KREV 310828
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
128 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES PREVAILING.
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY ON
TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
NORTHEAST CA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NV.
* COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY IN NORTHEAST CA
AND NORTHWEST NV THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THE WEEK BEGINS WITH TYPICAL LATE-AUGUST WEATHER, INCLUDING NEAR-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZES. CONDITIONS THEN SHIFT BY TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AND DRY COLD FRONT BRING STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEE THE FIRE DISCUSSION BELOW.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG N. SIERRA RIDGETOPS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO NEAR 70 MPH BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
THE STRONGEST LOWER VALLEY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY NORTHWARD OF US-50, WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH
30-40 MPH. THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND
WIND SHEAR FOR AVIATION, HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ON AREA
LAKES, CROSSWIND HAZARDS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, AND LOCALLY
REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING DUST ON THE DESERT PLAYAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE WEEK’S COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY,
WITH HIGHS FALLING 10-15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY. EXPECT MID-70S FOR
W.NEVADA VALLEYS AND LOW TO MID-60S IN SIERRA VALLEYS. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS MAY DIP BELOW FREEZING EACH
MORNING FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES
AND HELPS EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. LIGHT SHOWERS BECOME
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH GENERALLY
20-50% CHANCES ACROSS W.LASSEN AND FAR N.WASHOE COUNTIES. SHOWER
CHANCES OF 10-20% COULD EXTEND INTO THE TAHOE BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH
DECREASED POTENTIAL OVERALL ON SATURDAY.
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FAVORS SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A POSSIBILITY
THAT MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND INTERACTS WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW. FUENTES
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED FOR SIERRA AND W.NEVADA TERMINALS.
* A DRY COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WITH N.SIERRA RIDGETOPS WINDS (FL100)
GUSTING NEAR 40-45 KTS AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING.
* FOR TUESDAY, RIDGETOP GUSTS INCREASE NEAR 70 KTS LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH SIERRA AND W.NEVADA TERMINAL GUSTS AROUND 30-35
KTS. EXPECT INCREASED MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF
LLWS.
* AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING DUST MAY IMPACT KLOL,
KNFL, KHTH AND AVIATION OPERATIONS ON THE BLACK ROCK DESERT ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FUENTES
FIRE WEATHER
* ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH TUESDAY BEING THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
* MONDAY BRINGS VERY LOW HUMIDITY, NEAR 10% IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH.
* TUESDAY POSES THE GREATEST CONCERN. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES COVER
PARTS OF NE CALIFORNIA, NW NEVADA, AND THE N.SIERRA FRONT,
INCLUDING RENO AND CARSON CITY. SOUTHWEST GUSTS MAY REACH 30 TO
40 MPH FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING.
* WINDS REMAIN GUSTY WEDNESDAY, AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH, THOUGH HUMIDITY
IMPROVES. BRIEF NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
EAST OF US-95. BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES, HIGHER HUMIDITY, AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH SHOULD REDUCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
NVZ420-458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
CAZ270-278.
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