933
FXUS65 KREV 132027
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
127 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARM WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD EACH AFTERNOON.
* A HEATWAVE WILL INDUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* A PATTERN CHANGE MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS, AND INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A VERY WARM WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO 80S TO LOW-90S IN THE AFTERNOONS TODAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A LOW 10-
30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTHWARD INTO MONO, MINERAL, AND FAR
S. LYON COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A STRAY T-STORM MAY SNEAK
INTO THE GREATER RENO-CARSON-MINDEN AREA AS SHOWN IN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE CAMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS IN
THIS AREA, BUT SURE YOU HAVE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER ALERTS.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK, CULMINATING IN DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 90F AND 100F
FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES AND LOWER NE CA/W NV VALLEYS, RESPECTIVELY,
BETWEEN MONDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH HEAT WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK WITH MAJOR HEATRISK SPREADING INTO W NEVADA
VALLEYS -- PARTLY DUE TO MINIMAL NIGHTTIME RELIEF AS LOWS ONLY FALL
TO THE MID/UPPER 60S. BE SURE TO MAKE YOUR PLANS ACCORDINGLY, AND
PRACTICE YOUR HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS IF YOUR PLANS DO TAKE YOU
OUTDOORS. LOW CHANCES (10-20%) OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
MAINTAINED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE EXTENT OF WARMING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SUBSIDENT
FLOW.
A COOLING TREND BEGINS AFTER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WEAKENS, RETURNING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TRENDS UPWARDS DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STILL A
BIT TOO FAR OUT TO GIVE DETAILS WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE, BUT CERTAINLY
WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEK.
WINDS MAY ALSO GET A BOOST FROM THIS PATTERN CHANGE, BUT SHOUDN'T BE
MUCH STRONGER THAN OUR TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZE. HOWEVER, THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY WINDS WILL
HEIGHTEN FIRE CONCERNS LATE NEXT WEEK (MORE IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION).
-SALAS
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY FOR KMMH WHERE ODDS OF A T-STORM WITHIN 10
MILES ARE 20-30%. EXPECT GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF DOWNPOURS, AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WITH ANY STORM. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PREVAIL.
DENSITY ALTITUDE CONCERNS ARISE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN
TEMPERATURES BECOME 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. GREATEST CONCERN
WILL BE FOR WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS WHERE TEMPERATURES FLIRT WITH
THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
-SALAS
FIRE WEATHER
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM/HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FEATURES THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES (10-20F ABOVE NORMAL) WITH RH REDUCTIONS TO THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS. FURTHERMORE, NIGHTTIME RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN
POOR AWAY FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TAHOE SOUTHWARD EACH AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEK, RAISING LOCALIZED CONCERNS FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS
AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.
WHILE WINDS AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO DEVIATE MUCH STRONGER THAN OUR
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES DURING THIS HOT/DRY PERIOD, TUESDAY STANDS
OUT AS HAVING THE STRONGEST BREEZES FROM E LASSEN COUNTY INTO FAR
WESTERN NEVADA. A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR OVERLAP OF CRITICAL WIND/RH MAY
UNFOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
A CRITICAL RIDGE BREAKDOWN TAKES PLACE AFTER WEDNESDAY, INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND NEW LIGHTNING IGNITIONS/STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS, AND INCREASED AFTERNOON BREEZES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT VEGETATION WILL HAVE
HAD SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT UNDER ANTECEDENT HOT AND VERY DRY
WEATHER, COMPOUNDING THE POTENTIAL FIRE THREAT LATE NEXT WEEK.
-SALAS
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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