606
FXUS65 KREV 142119
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
119 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ONE MORE MILD AND BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A MAJOR WINTER
STORM ARRIVES IN THE SIERRA. COMPLETE ANY TRAVEL ACROSS THE
SIERRA BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
* SNOW REACHES THE SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
RATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
EVENING. MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SIERRA.
* SNOW IMPACTS MOST LIKELY FOR W.NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD WEATHER AND LINGERING SNOW IMPACTS
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SIERRA SNOWFALL FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THURSDAY. THE STORM WILL COME IN TWO WAVES: THE FIRST FROM
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER,
COLDER SECOND WAVE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MAIN FORECAST UPDATES:
* SIERRA WINTER STORM WATCHES UPGRADED TO WARNINGS; TIMING AND
SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN UNCHANGED.
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* GROWING CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IMPACTS FOR VALLEY FLOORS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
1ST WAVE: SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY EVENING:
* IF YOU PLAN TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE SIERRA, IT WOULD BE BEST TO BE
WHERE YOU NEED TO BE BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO GIVE YOURSELF
SOME BUFFER. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST RATES (1-2”/HR) FROM MID-MORNING
TO EARLY EVENING MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS START NEAR 6,000 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DROP BELOW 5,000 FEET BY MONDAY EVENING.
* EXPECT MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR SIERRA PASSES, INCLUDING CHAIN
CONTROLS AND POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES. THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO
COUNTY CREST COULD SEE 1-2 FEET OF SNOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
LAKE-LEVEL AREAS 5-10 INCHES, AND WESTERN MONO COUNTY
COMMUNITIES UP TO 12 INCHES. W.NEVADA FOOTHILL AREAS ABOVE 5,000
FEET MAY SEE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY
FLOORS WILL MAINLY SEE SPILLOVER RAINFALL.
2ND WAVE: TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY MORNING:
* SNOWFALL RATES WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE STRONGER, COLDER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
COLDER AIR ARRIVES, THE SNOWFALL CHARACTER WILL BECOME LIGHTER
AND MORE POWDERY, RAISING THE RISK OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH IN SIERRA
COMMUNITIES AND OVER 100 MPH ALONG THE RIDGETOPS.
* IN THE SIERRA, SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 2-3+ INCHES PER HOUR
DURING THE HEAVIER BANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RATES WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT BY THE END OF THE
STORM, EVENT TOTALS COULD REACH 3-5 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE
SIERRA, AND 2-3 FEET FOR THE TAHOE BASIN AND MONO COUNTY
COMMUNITIES WEST OF US-395. AREAS WEST OF US-395 IN LASSEN
COUNTY COULD SEE AROUND 6-12 INCHES FOR THE FULL EVENT.
* FOR THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEY FLOORS, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
MORE UNCERTAIN TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SINCE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OF 35-45 MPH MAY TEMPORARILY RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE
VALLEY FLOORS UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS IS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING COMMUTE, WHEN THERE IS ROUGHLY A 30% CHANCE OF UP TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ON VALLEY FLOORS. WESTERN NEVADA FOOTHILLS ABOVE
ABOUT 5000 FEET, INCLUDING VIRGINIA CITY/HIGHLANDS COULD SEE
6-12 INCHES OF SNOW, AND WASHOE VALLEY HAS ABOUT A 60% CHANCE OF
RECEIVING UP TO 8 INCHES. FUENTES
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
THICKER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THEN BRIEF CLEARING SUNDAY
AHEAD OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM.
* S-SW WINDS INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FL100 WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 KT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AFTERNOON SURFACE GUSTS
UP TO 20-25 KT EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
TURBULENCE AND PERIODS OF LLWS EVEN BEFORE THE MAIN STORM
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT.
* A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVES INTO THE SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH
FEET OF SNOWFALL FOR SIERRA TERMINALS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FROM BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY.
* WESTERN NEVADA TERMINALS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS (30-40KTS) AND
LLWS ON TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW AND RUNWAY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR UP TO 4 INCHES. FUENTES
AVALANCHE
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO ALL AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST SNOW
PROJECTED FROM MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
* NO CHANGES WITH EXPECTED TIMING AND SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THIS
STORM. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS.
* TIMING/SNOWFALL RATES: SNOW PUSHES INTO SACS TERRAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN REACHING BAC/ESAC AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SNOW BECOMES MAINLY CONTINUOUS FOR ALL AREAS, WITH RATES OF
1-2"/HOUR AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO
POTENTIALLY 2-3"/HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT.
* SWE/SNOWFALL TOTALS: SWE OF 2-4", LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 5"
CURRENTLY FAVORING SAC TERRAIN. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING PROJECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET,
WITH POCKETS OF 5 OR MORE FEET FOR HIGHER PEAKS.
* SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR): SLRS AT THE STORM'S ONSET A HIGHER
DENSITY 8-11:1 THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, THEN TO A MORE POWDERY
14-16:1 AS THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM TUESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
* RIDGE TOP WINDS: BEFORE THE STORM, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE FOR
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 50-65 MPH. THE MAIN PUSH OF WINDS ARRIVES
MONDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF PEAK
GUSTS 100+ MPH MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MJD/FUENTES
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
NVZ002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY
NVZ005.
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
CAZ071>073.
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