909
FXUS65 KREV 222049
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.
* HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
STORM CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BASIN AND RANGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
* A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY:
* EARLY-AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE FORECAST AREA
LARGELY DRY, WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA,
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN
AND RANGE. THE 12Z REV SOUNDING MEASURED 1.03 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER, NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE REGION CONTAIN 600-1600 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, DCAPE OF 1200-1600 J/KG, AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8
C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS HIGH-BASED, POORLY ORGANIZED STORMS
CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 15-25% WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, AS WELL AS MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES,
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE THIS
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEST TO NORTHWEST STORM
MOTIONS (265-300 DEGREES) AT 15-25 KT, SUPPORTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT AROUND 20-25 MPH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT
FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE BENEATH STRONGER CELLS. SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EAST THURSDAY, LEAVING 10-20% STORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS
MONO, MINERAL, AND EASTERN CHURCHILL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOT, DRY AND WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND:
* AN APPROACHING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS RIDGE AND STRENGTHEN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RISE THURSDAY AND PEAK FRIDAY,
WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AND 80S
IN SIERRA COMMUNITIES. MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND
RANGE.
* AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH WILL OVERLAP
MINIMUM RH OF 5-10% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST OVERLAP
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA,
WHERE 3-8 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY ACTIVATE HOLDOVER FIRES FROM THIS WEEK'S
LIGHTNING. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGER SUNDAY BEFORE WINDS
EASE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TYPICAL LATE-JULY WARMTH AND MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
* VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH HAZE POSSIBLE AT
KRNO THROUGH 22/21Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE
THE MAIN TERMINAL AREAS, BUT MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING, BRIEF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION, AND OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 35-45 KT. AFTERNOON WEST WINDS
WILL GUST 15-22 KT BEFORE EASING BETWEEN 23/03-07Z. KTRK IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LIFR FOG AND LOW STRATUS AFTER 23/04Z, WITH
1/2SM VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS NEAR 200 FEET POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
* RNO: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 14 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 22 KT
BETWEEN 23/01-05Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE DENSITY-
ALTITUDE CONCERNS.
-JOHNSTON
FIRE WEATHER
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA, NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, THE EASTERN SIERRA,
AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIALLY CAUSING NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY, AS STORM MOTIONS ARE FAIRLY FAST AROUND 20-25 MPH. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 45-55 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND THESE STORMS.
* A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH A 15-20%
CHANCE OF STORMS IN MINERAL AND MONO COUNTIES CONTINUES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE THE TWO MAIN DAYS OF
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS RANGING FROM 5-10% WILL OVERLAP EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA,
YIELDING 3-8 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THIS
REASON, AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THESE CONDITIONS TO THE BISCAR
FIRE, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM FRIDAY THROUGH
9 PM SATURDAY.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING NVZ458.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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