732
FXUS65 KREV 140828
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1228 AM PST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER, LIGHT WINDS, AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
* HAZY SKIES AND MINOR REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING ACROSS LOWER URBAN VALLEYS ALONG WITH PATCHY FREEZING
FOG IN SIERRA BASINS.
* A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED WINDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY
TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
DISCUSSION
* OUR STAGNANT, UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND MONDAY. WITH STABLE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT,
INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SETUP EACH MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SMOG AND HAZE TO PERSIST IN THE WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS AS
WELL AS AREAS OF FREEZING FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN THE TAHOE
BASIN. SOME ROADS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN MAY HAVE POCKETS OF
ICING, SO DRIVE CAREFULLY IN AND AROUND FOGGY VALLEYS. THE
INVERSIONS WILL BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
MID-DECEMBER.
* THE PATTERN FINALLY STARTS TO CHANGE ON TUESDAY. THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US ADVANCES EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A TROUGH THEN MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY (60-70%) IN
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES STRETCHING FROM
NORTHERN MONO COUNTY NORTHWARD. SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY HAS AROUND
A 10% IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND A 30-40% IN THE REMAINING
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 9,500-10,000 FT, SO ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN ABOVE PASS LEVELS. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO RAMP UP ALONG THE SIERRA RIDGETOPS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 80-100 MPH ARE CONCEIVABLE, WITH THE NBM BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWING A 50-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 55 MPH ON THE
RIDGETOPS. DURING THIS PERIOD, WESTERN NV HAS AROUND 40-50%
CHANCE FOR RAIN, WHILE THE INNER BASINS LOOK TO STAY DRY, WITH
AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR RAIN.
* THE STORM DOOR REMAINS OPEN AFTER WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BLENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CA. IN
FACT, THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
THAT THIS PATTERN IS ACTIVE INTO THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER.
-MCKELLAR
AVIATION
* LIFR/IFR IN FZFG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KTRK AND KTVL THROUGH
AROUND 18Z THIS MORNING, WITH CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FOR ALL SIERRA TERMINALS.
* KRNO, KCXP AND KMEV ALL HAVE SLANTWISE VISIBILITY CONCERNS
THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO INVERSIONS. -MCKELLAR
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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