720
FXUS65 KREV 101908
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1208 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY WINDS OVERLAP WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR TODAY, BRINGING
ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND RECREATION CONCERNS.
* HOTTER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING AREAS OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK FOR SATURDAY.
* MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE STARTING SUNDAY WILL BRING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
JULY CONTINUES TO BE 'SO HOT RIGHT NOW' WITH A TREND FOR EVEN HOTTER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
TODAY WITH ENHANCED BREEZES RESULTING IN LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF NE CA AND W NV, FOR MORE DETAILS ON
FIRE WEATHER, CHECK OUT THE DISCUSSION BELOW. BASIN AND RANGE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND EVEN RENO HAS AN 80%
CHANCE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. THIS WON'T BE RECORD-
BREAKING HEAT, BUT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS. CHECK OUT THE HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE, LYON AND MINERAL COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED WITH WATER
AND ELECTROLYTES, BECAUSE WE KNOW THAT MILK WOULD BE A BAD
CHOICE. FOR MORE HEAT SAFETY TIPS AND PRECAUTIONS GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/HEAT
FOLLOWING THE HOT WEEKEND, WE RESET OUR FOCUS ONTO THE PATTERN
SHIFT FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH PROMOTES MOIST,
SUBTROPICAL SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SW. WE DON'T KNOW HOW
TO PUT THIS, BUT MONSOON MOISTURE IS KIND OF A BIG DEAL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STARTING AROUND
0.20" SATURDAY THEN CLIMBING INTO THE 0.50-0.60" RANGE SUNDAY AND
NEARING 0.80" BY MONDAY. THIS INUNDATION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
(MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE) COMBINED WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITIES, INCLUDING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY START OUT ON THE DRIER END ON SUNDAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING STARTS OUTSIDE OF WETTER RAIN CORES, BUT
THEN AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CRAWLS INTO THE REGION WE WILL
TRANSITION TO FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS ALONG WITH THE OTHER
THUNDERSTORM RISKS. HAVE OUTDOOR WORK OR RECREATION SCHEDULED
NEXT WEEK? IF YOU'RE NOT FIRST, YOU'RE LAST DOWN THE MOUNTAIN AND
IN DANGER OF DEADLY LIGHTNING. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE ALERTS IF
YOU'RE IN A REMOTE AREA, AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKIES AS STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ESCALATE QUICKLY!
-EDAN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST GUSTS 20-30KT THROUGH 3Z
SATURDAY. FL100 WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT OVER THE SIERRA BETWEEN
SAT 0Z-9Z TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN, GIVING WAY TO SOME
POCKETS OF LLWS AND LIGHT TURBULENCE OVER THE SIERRA. THE TYPICAL
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS RESUME SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PREVIEW FOR NEXT WEEK: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA, KMMH, AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE.
-EDAN
FIRE WEATHER
* DRY AND HOT AFTERNOONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV (NEAR 5% AT
TIMES ALONG & EAST OF US-95) AND EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY, WITH 10-
15% FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA/TAHOE BASIN AND NEAR THE OR BORDER.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERY REMAIN POOR FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND
SOME MIDSLOPE/THERMAL BELT REGIONS, WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES ONLY
AROUND 20-30%.
* INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SW-W FLOW OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BOOST SURFACE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS INTO THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.
PLAN ON SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LASSEN/NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTIES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN NV SIERRA FRONT. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
TODAY FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH ONLY 1-3 HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
* MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL USHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK INTO THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA, ALONG WITH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FIRST ROUND OF STORMS SUNDAY MAY BE ON THE DRY SIDE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STARTS OUTSIDE OF WETTER RAIN CORES, BUT STORMS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME QUITE WET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A HIGHER
HEAVY RAIN RISK.
-EDAN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ420-458.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PDT SUNDAY NVZ001-004.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ270-278.
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