759
FXUS65 KREV 100853
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
153 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS LAKE CONDITIONS TODAY DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES, RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THAT
MAY LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
* MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WILL BOOST SHOWER
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
EVIDENCE OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SHOWING UP ACROSS
CENTRAL OREGON ON THE SATELLITE RETURNS THIS MORNING, SOON TO TAKE
AIM AT THE NORTHERN BORDERS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. WINDS ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK UP ALONG THE RIDGES, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LOWER VALLEYS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS
RANGING 35-45 MPH, WHILE THE SIERRA RIDGES WILL SEE GUSTS 70-80 MPH.
WHEN COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, IT WILL BRING ABOUT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE
CHOPPY LAKES AND TRAVEL TROUBLES, SO KEEP THAT IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL OR RECREATION PLANS FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A
TUMBLE FROM RECENT DAYTIME HIGHS, WESTERN NEVADA COULD SEE LOW 70S
WHILE SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR LOW 60S. THIS WILL
SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF THE COOLDOWN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
FOR SUNDAY, THE CHILL IS ON! WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WHILE SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE LOW 60S TO MID 50S. AS THIS TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD,
ANOTHER FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL WILL HELP TO BOOST SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80.
CHANCES RANGE FROM 50 TO 80%, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SIERRA AND ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE. ONE ISSUE WE
ARE WATCHING IS THE RELATIVE WARMTH FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVERRIDING THE COLDER, DENSER AIR FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
CAUSED SOME FLUCTUATION IN SNOW LEVELS. RECENT NBM RUNS SHOW SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 8500-9500 FEET TO START SUNDAY, FALLING TO AROUND 6500-
7000 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHTS IN THE SIERRA WILL SUPPORT ANY SNOWFALL THAT DOES
ACCUMULATE.
BY TUESDAY, THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, AS WE CLEAR OUT
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS, WE WILL START TO RESUME A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND THAT WILL CARRY US THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. HRICH
AVIATION
* INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BRING GUSTS 25-40 KTS TO
SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT TERMINALS. EXPECT LLWS AND TURBULENCE TO
ACCOMPANY THE WIND GUSTS. TONIGHT, KMMH HAS A 20% CHANCE TO
SEE SHOWERS.
* FOR SUNDAY, SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ALL
TERMINALS SEEING CHANCES. HRICH
FIRE WEATHER
THE SEASON’S FIRST POTENT COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NE CALIFORNIA AND W.NEVADA. WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY: WINDS PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80. HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS NE CALIFORNIA AND FAR NW NEVADA, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-80
MAY SEE CONTINUED ELEVATED CONCERNS WITH A MORE MARGINAL MINIMUM RH
OF 15-20% ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
TODAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH FOR PORTIONS OF W.NEVADA
INCLUDING THE SIERRA FRONT AND THE E.SIERRA FROM E.ALPINE COUNTY
INTO MONO COUNTY.
SUNDAY ONWARD: BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL DROP 20-25 DEGREES FROM
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, REACHING THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ACROSS W.NEVADA AND
LOW 50S IN E.SIERRA COMMUNITIES. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL INCREASES
SUNDAY-MONDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80, AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL MOVES NORTHWARD. THE MOISTURE’S TRACK AND
PRECIPITATION TOTALS STILL SHOW HIGHER UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND HAS BEEN WETTER.
-MCKELLAR/JUSTIN/HRICH
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ420-421-423-429.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING NVZ002>004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ001.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ274.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING CAZ072.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ073.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page