399
FXUS65 KREV 060853
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
153 AM PDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY BRING
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* TEMPERATURES COOL OFF TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY JUNE
AVERAGES SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
* GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWER CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN
DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP LATE-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING WINDS
OUT AHEAD OF IT. TIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN FAR
WESTERN NV ARE DRIVING PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, THOUGH
NORTHEAST CA AND WESTERN NV ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE 30-40 MPH.
CHOPPY LAKES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, SO PLEASE CHECK THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IF PLANNING ON RECREATING TODAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS, AS WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE UP TO 9-10 HOURS OF
RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THE SPC ALSO PUT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA (CHURCHILL AND PERSHING COUNTIES) IN A CRITICAL RISK LEVEL
TODAY IN THEIR FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. SINCE IT'S A WEEKEND, USE
CAUTION TODAY AND DON'T DO ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CAUSE A
SPARK!
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF TODAY, THEN CONTINUE TO COOL MORE
THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A DEEPER LOW DIGS FARTHER SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IF NOT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
ACROSS WESTERN NV VALLEYS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S, AND LOW 60S IN
THE SIERRA. SOME VARIATION IN THE MODELS EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR
SOUTH THE LOW WILL MOVE, LEADING TO CONFLICTING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT STANDS THIS MORNING, PRECIP CHANCES OF
20-40% BEGIN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN DECREASE TO
10-15% BY WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS IN THE MODELS OF SOME
PRECIP SHADOWING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND INTO WESTERN NV WITH
THIS SYSTEM, WHICH MEANS WIND WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THOSE
AREAS. WINDS ON MONDAY ARE TRENDING STRONGER THAN TODAY'S WINDS,
AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND RIDGETOP LEVEL, SO THAT'LL BE SOMETHING WE KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A RATHER ROBUST RIDGE
MOVING IN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK UP
TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
-JUSTIN
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KT. FL100 WINDS OUT OF THE WEST AT 30-35 KT MAY CAUSE
TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF LLWS OVER THE SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT
TODAY. OTHERWISE, WINDS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE STAY
DRY WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
-JUSTIN
FIRE WEATHER
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AND IS VALID FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NV AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
CA. THERE'S A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH IN WESTERN
NV ALONG THE US-50 CORRIDOR, OTHERWISE 50-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 30 MPH OVER WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA. MINIMUM RH
GENERALLY 9-13% IN NV VALLEYS AND 10-18% IN NORTHEAST CA. LONGER
CRITICAL WIND/RH OVERLAP SUPPORTS 9-10 HOURS OF RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN NV AND INTO EASTERN LASSEN COUNTY. OTHER
AREAS SUCH AS LOWER MONO COUNTY VALLEYS, INCLUDING THE CHALFANT
VALLEY, WILL ALSO SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
-JUSTIN
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ420-423-429-458.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ001-004.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING NVZ003.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ278.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING CAZ073.
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