838
FXUS65 KREV 300859
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
159 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* EXCESSIVE HEAT PEAKS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK IN WESTERN
NEVADA.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, WITH BROADER
STORM POTENTIAL AND INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, REINFORCING AN EARLY-SEASON HEATWAVE. TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS.
RENO IS FORECAST TO REACH 99 DEGREES SATURDAY, WITH A 75%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE DAILY RECORD OF 98 DEGREES. THERE IS
OVER A 40% CHANCE RENO EXCEEDS 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY, WHICH
WOULD MARK THE EARLIEST 100-DEGREE DAY ON RECORD DATING BACK TO
1893; IF WE SURPASS 98 DEGREES, IT WOULD BECOME THE HOTTEST MAY
DAY IN RENO SINCE RECORDS WERE KEPT. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS (60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES IN WESTERN NEVADA) WILL LIMIT RELIEF AND SUPPORT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND
THOSE RECREATING OR WORKING OUTDOORS. IN ADDITION, RIVERS AND
STREAMS REMAIN COLD AND FAST DUE TO SNOWMELT, POSING A DROWNING
HAZARD DESPITE THE INTENSE HEAT. USE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR WATER
AND AVOID USING THEM TO COOL OFF.
BY SUNDAY, A TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND ENHANCE SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH REGION-WIDE AND LOCALLY UP TO 50 MPH IN PRONE LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS, PAIRED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 10-15% RANGE,
ALONG WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS EARLY NEXT WEEK, STORM COVERAGE INCREASES MONDAY-TUESDAY
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SHARPLY TO NEAR-NORMAL BY MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH DAILY BREEZES AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN STORM
CHANCES.
-JOHNSTON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE, ESPECIALLY AT KRNO/KCXP AND SIERRA
TERMINALS (KTVL/KTRK). EXPECT AFTERNOON TURBULENCE OVER THE RIDGE
LINES.
WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY, WITH KRNO, KCXP, AND KMEV SEEING GUSTS
25-30 KTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY, GUSTS 30-35+ KTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA TERMINALS,
WITH CROSSWIND IMPACTS AND TURBULENCE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY OVER THE SIERRA CREST MAY IMPACT
KTRK/KTVL/KMHH WITH BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY DROPS, ERRATIC GUSTS,
AND OUTFLOWS. MONDAY-TUESDAY STORM COVERAGE INCREASES.
-JOHNSTON
FIRE WEATHER
***FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 274 (SOUTHERN MONO), 420 (NORTHERN SIERRA
FRONT), 421 (SOUTHERN SIERRA FRONT), AND 429 (LAHONTAN BASIN)***
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
REALIZED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND THE
EASTERN SIERRA. LATEST NBM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHT GUST
POTENTIAL OF 30-40 MPH ACROSS A BROAD AREA, WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
FALLING TO 10-15%. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR, RANGING ONLY
20-35%. FUELS IN THESE ZONES ARE CLASSIFIED AS MARGINAL; HOWEVER,
RECENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IN WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA
SUGGEST FUELS MAY BE DRYING SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT IGNITION AND
SPREAD.
SATURDAY'S ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS BRING 10-15% PROBABILITIES
OF IGNITION-CAUSING LIGHTNING, MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND
WESTERN SLOPES. GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND INCREASING
WINDS, ANY HOLDOVERS MAY REMAIN HIDDEN UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN ENHANCED
WINDS COULD FAN ANY SMOLDERING STARTS INTO WIND-DRIVEN WILDFIRES.
AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES MONDAY-TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPANDS AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES IMPROVE. UNTIL THEN, FIRE
ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP QUICKLY IN AREAS WHERE WINDS, SLOPES, AND
DRY FUELS LINE UP, WHICH COULD MAKE INITIAL RESPONSE EFFORTS
CHALLENGING.
-JOHNSTON
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
NVZ420-421-429.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
CAZ274.
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