721
FXUS65 KREV 102117
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
117 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SIERRA SNOW INCREASES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND ALSO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* A BREAK IN STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP AND LIGHTER WINDS.
* INCREASED RISK OF WINTER STORMS RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS
FOR THE SIERRA, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING THE LOWER VALLEYS.
DISCUSSION
LAST NIGHT'S SNOW WAS LIMITED TO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY
WHERE ABOUT 6 INCHES FELL AT MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN, WHILE A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER TO THE SURFACE KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION DRY.
THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SF BAY AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
WILL COME IN THE FORM OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY PRODUCING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CA,
TRANSITIONING TO HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER BANDS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE EXTENDS THE LIGHTNING RISK INTO FAR WESTERN NV THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE PREVAILING SNOW LEVELS RANGE FROM 6500-7500
FEET THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 5500-6000 FEET OVERNIGHT,
THESE LEVELS COULD DIP BY 500-1000 FEET WITHIN THE HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE BANDS, AND LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE BRIEF
PELLETS/GRAUPEL IF A STRONGER SHOWER/T-STORM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE
OVERALL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR FOR THE SIERRA AND
NORTHEAST CA WITHIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ALTHOUGH PARTS
OF MONO COUNTY AND WESTERN LASSEN/CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTIES COULD
RECEIVE A FEW EXTRA INCHES WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER
BANDS. IN WESTERN NV, HIGHER FOOTHILLS SUCH AS VIRGINIA CITY COULD
SEE A DUSTING UP TO ABOUT 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT, BUT
ELSEWHERE THE RISK OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS THROUGH THE
WEDNESDAY AM COMMUTE IS LOW (LESS THAN 10%).
FOR WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
CA AND WESTERN NV ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS LOOKING MORE SPOTTY
COMPARED TO TONIGHT, AS THE MAIN LOW IS NOW PROJECTED TO STALL
NEAR THE SF BAY RATHER THAN PUSH INLAND. THE INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND RISK FOR AFTERNOON THUNDER (NEAR 15% CHANCE) SHIFTS TO WEST
CENTRAL NV, ALTHOUGH A 5-10% CHANCE EXTENDS INTO FAR WESTERN
NV/NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN WINDS DOWN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW THEN DRIFTS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST
AND WEAKENS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND NOW A LARGER PORTION OF THIS
WEEKEND, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
UP TO THE MID-UPPER 50S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY SATURDAY. THE
OVERALL TREND IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE
COLDER STORMY PATTERN TO EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR EVEN MONDAY. WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE SIERRA/NORTHEAST CA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LESS
LIKELY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO FOLLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE SIERRA, AND INCREASED RISK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND SLICK TRAVEL FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS. THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST CHALLENGING FACTOR FOR THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. MJD
AVIATION
* PERIODS OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THRU WED AM, WITH CONDITIONS
DEGRADING TO IFR/LIFR FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
03-18Z AND MVFR AT TIMES WITH TERRAIN OBSCURATION FOR THE
WESTERN NV TERMINALS.
* ALL MAIN TERMINALS ALSO HAVE UP TO A 15% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING, PRODUCING ENHANCED SNOW INTENSITY FOR
THE SIERRA TERMINALS OR BRIEF GRAUPEL FOR WESTERN NV SITES.
* FL100 WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 KT THROUGH EARLY WED AM WILL KEEP THE
RISK OF TURBULENCE WITH PERIODS OF LLWS AT THE MAIN TERMINALS.
* THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER BANDS LINGERS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA TERMINALS, WITH RENEWED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING CHANCES INTO WESTERN
NV (5-10% FOR KRNO-KCXP-KMEV AND UP TO 15% IN WEST CENTRAL NV).
* ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE START OF THIS
WEEKEND, EXCEPT FOR PATCHY FZFG EACH MORNING AROUND KTRK.
MJD
AVALANCHE
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY RIDGE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
AVALANCHE CENTER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* SNOW TOTALS, LEVELS, AND RATES: UP TO 1 FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN FOR ALL AVALANCHE CENTERS, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 20"
OR HIGHER FOR ISOLATED PARTS OF BAC AND ESAC TERRAIN (SOUTH OF
SONORA PASS AND AROUND JUNE LAKE, RESPECTIVELY). SNOWFALL RATES UP
TO 1"/HR, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD AROUND MIDNIGHT (RATES UP
TO 2"/HR IN SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY). SNOW LEVELS START ABOVE 7 KFT
THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE STEADILY DROPPING BELOW 6 KFT JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
* SLRS AND SWE: 10-12:1 SLRS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
SYSTEM, LOCALLY LOWER FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. SWE MAINLY AROUND 1",
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 1.5" IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF
BAC AND ESAC TERRAIN. SWE NEAR JUNE LAKE MAY REACH UPWARDS OF
1.75".
* RIDGETOP GUSTS: SSW GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY NVZ002.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY CAZ071>073.
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