563
FXUS65 KREV 011847
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1147 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN
AFTERNOON WINDS SUNDAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
* WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST CA
AND NORTHWEST NV WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ISN'T AS WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING
AROUND 2-3 PM NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF RENO AND PUSHING TO THE
NORTHEAST. IF THESE STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE A SOLID
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, IT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF STRONG 50-60 MPH
WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST FOR THE BASIN AND RANGE, IN A SIMILAR
FASHION AS THE DUST STORMS THAT OCCURRED TWO DAYS AGO. DOWNDRAFT
CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-1400 J/KG ACROSS
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THIS OUTFLOW/BLOWING DUST SCENARIO, MAINLY BETWEEN 6-9 PM
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, OTHER SOURCES OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
ONLY GENERATE WEAKER AND SHORTER-LIVED PULSE CELLS IN WESTERN NV
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD REDUCE THIS BLOWING DUST THREAT. SOME
SHOWERS COULD LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY, UNTIL THE DISTURBANCE FINALLY CLEARS THE
AREA.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR 10-15%
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDER SATURDAY AND UP TO 20% CHANCE
SUNDAY FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY. WHILE
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BRING INCREASING WINDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THE LATEST BLENDED
GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND A 30-60% CHANCE FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV. THIS WOULD BRING MORE
WIND-RELATED IMPACTS FOR RECREATION AND TRAVEL, AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WHICH ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY
AUGUST AVERAGES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES.
FOR NEXT WEEK, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AS THE PARADE
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGES AND DISTURBANCES ACROSS CA/NV
FINALLY ENDS. THE WEEK WILL START A BIT COOLER MONDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 70S
NEAR THE SIERRA, THEN A WARMING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US EXPANDS A BIT TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. BY LATE NEXT WEEK, HIGHS ARE PROJECTED TO REACH THE MID-
UPPER 90S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 80S FOR SIERRA COMMUNITIES. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL MAIN TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES PRODUCING GUSTS 20-25 KT TODAY AND
SATURDAY MAINLY BETWEEN 21-04Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PASS NEAR KRNO
BETWEEN 21-00Z TODAY, OTHERWISE THE MAIN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A TROUGH PASSAGE,
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AT THE MAIN TERMINALS. MJD
FIRE WEATHER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR AREAS MAINLY FROM I-80 NORTHWARD. CELL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE FASTER THAN YESTERDAY, MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 20 MPH, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE
THE RAIN CORES, LOWER CHANCES OF WETTING RAINFALL, AND STRONGER
OUTFLOW GUSTS ESPECIALLY FOR PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE SPARSE AND
MAINLY LIMITED TO THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST NV NEAR
THE OR BORDER. A FEW DRY STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THESE AREAS, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LIGHTNING THREAT TO NORTH OF THE OR
BORDER.
INCREASED WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN TO AROUND 10-15% ALLOWING
POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE PEAK
WINDS MIGHT NOT LINE UP IDEALLY WITH THE LOWEST RH, WITH THE MAIN
TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NV COULD SEE 1-2 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF ANY HOLDOVER LIGHTNING IGNITIONS FROM
RECENT THUNDERSTORM DAYS ARE PRESENT, THESE INCREASED WINDS COULD
LEAD TO SOME FIRE SPREAD IN AREAS WHERE VEGETATION HAS EITHER
DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY AFTER RECENT RAINFALL, OR IN AREAS WHERE
LESS RAIN OCCURRED. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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