431  
FXUS65 KREV 200956  
AFDREV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
256 AM PDT MON MAY 20 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS DRIVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL  
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON BREEZES, AND A 10-20% CHANCE  
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA. THE RUN  
UP TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THIS WEEK'S HEADLINES:  
 
* THE WEEK STARTS OFF COOLER WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,  
REBOUNDS BY MID-WEEK, DROPS TEMPORARILY, THEN ONCE AGAIN TRENDS  
WARMER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  
 
* TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH  
WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY LOOKING TO REGISTER THE HIGHER, MORE  
ENHANCED BREEZES.  
 
* MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY SUMMER WEATHER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF  
SIERRA THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY REPEAT ITSELF LATE WEEK.  
 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
THE WEEK STARTS OFF WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SOME 5-10 DEGREES  
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TODAY. COLDER MORE EXPOSED AREAS UNDER  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S FOR  
SIERRA VALLEYS WITH LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS THE BASIN AND RANGE AND  
EVEN SOME TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS NEAR RENO-CARSON CITY DIPPING  
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDING QUICKLY  
OVER THE REGION WILL AT LEAST BRING A QUICK REBOUND IN DAYTIME  
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY THAT ARE EITHER SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR NEAR SEASONAL  
VALUES. LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO 60S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS, AND 70S TO  
LOW 80S FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS.  
 
ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL  
BE A 10-15% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO  
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA SOUTH OF THE LAKE TAHOE BASIN TO  
MONO COUNTY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER  
SUNDOWN.  
 
AS THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE HASTENS ITS EXIT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SWING INTO  
NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THAT INCREASES SHOWER CHANCES (15-30%)  
MOSTLY ALONG THE OR/NV BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO  
BRING THAT ADDED BOOST OF FORCING TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON WESTERLY  
BREEZES WITH GUSTS THAT MIXES 30-40 MPH GUSTS INTO WESTERN NV  
VALLEYS. LOOK FOR LOCALLY CHOPPY SURFACE CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES  
AND IMPACTS TO ACTIVITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT ARE SENSITIVE  
TO THESE ENHANCE BREEZES.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY:  
 
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWINGS BACK-DOOR LIKE ACROSS NORTHERN CA  
AND NV, COOLER AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE  
REGION. LOOK FOR A QUICK DIP IN AREA TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL  
OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY. SIERRA LOCATIONS  
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH MOST VALLEY  
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN NV IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT  
A SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE SIERRA.  
 
GOING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND  
UPWARDS. BLENDED GUIDANCE SO FAR IS PROJECTING DAYTIME HIGHS TO  
STAY NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS IN UPPER 60S FOR  
THE SIERRA AND UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NV. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF  
THE REGION WILL STAY DRY AND WARMER, SOME ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS  
AND BLENDED GUIDANCE STILL DESIRE TO KEEP SOME SHOWER AND STORM  
CHANCES GOING. -AMANDA  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
* VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KTS THIS MORNING FOR  
MAIN TERMINALS, THEN INCREASE FROM THE N-NE 15-20 KTS THIS  
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING. FL100 WINDS WILL  
BE NORTHERLY 15-25KTS, TURNING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS AFTER 06Z.  
 
* SEVERAL TROUGHS WILL BRING PERIODS OF COOLER CONDITIONS AND A  
10-15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SIERRA  
MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE  
EASTERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL. -AMANDA  
 

 
   
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NV...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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