216
FXUS65 KREV 030804
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
104 AM PDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
UP TO 30-40 MPH AND WIND PONES GUSTING 50-60 MPH.
* RAIN CHANCES TODAY FOR NE CA AND THE TAHOE BASIN, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY OF TS MARIE,
BUT AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO PLUMAS
COUNTY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CREEP INTO THE REST OF NE CA AND THE
SIERRA AS DAY BREAKS. THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES, HOWEVER, WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH 60-90% CHANCES ACROSS THE
TAHOE BASIN AND NE CA. THE SIERRA FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN
SHADOWED OUT, WITH CHANCES BETWEEN 10-25%. PRECIP TOTALS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.01-0.25" THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS (GREATER THAN 0.5") IN FAR WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY AND
ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SIERRA IN THE TAHOE BASIN.
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY, THOUGH THE STRONGEST WIND
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AREAS NOT RECEIVING PRECIPITATION TODAY.
GUSTS ALONG THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF US-395 MAY REACH OVER 50 MPH.
BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY, BLOWING DUST
WILL BE LIKELY ON DESERT PLAYAS AND SINKS, INCLUDING THE BLACK
ROCK DESERT. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE PLAYA WILL BE LESS THAN 0.05"
BUT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY MUDDY AREAS.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN NE CA AND THE TAHOE BASIN FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AREAWIDE
WITH WINDS DECREASING TO OUR TYPICAL ZEPHYR GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH.
SUNDAY, LIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE IN NE
CA AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
CYCLING OVER THE PACNW DROPS FURTHER SOUTH. LATEST LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY AS
HURRICANE MARIE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
DEPENDING HOW SOUTH THAT AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SAGS EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WE COULD SEE TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP,
REGARDLESS. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM SAID TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULDN'T
BE UNTIL TUESDAY AT THE EARLIEST; STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS
TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER 60S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR COLDER SIERRA COMMUNITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH NEAR FREEZING. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND LOOKS
TO RENEW EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS BACK UP IN THE LOW 80S FOR
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY.
-GIRALTE
AVIATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR KTRK/KTVL TODAY
(BY 19Z) WITH LOWER CIGS/VIS. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
KRNO/KCXP/KMEV BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
FOR ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT SITES TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KMMH.
FL100 WINDS WILL RANGE UP TO 50-60 KTS AGAIN TODAY, CREATING LLWS
FOR ALL SIERRA AND SIERRA FRONT SITES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35-40 KTS.
-GIRALTE
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ002>004.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY CAZ071>073.
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