566
FXUS65 KREV 292124
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
124 PM PST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RIDGE WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES BRUSHING ACROSS NORTHWEST NV SUNDAY MORNING.
* ADDITIONAL WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS
AND LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH COLDER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
VALLEY INVERSIONS WERE MORE ROBUST THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS RETREATED TO THE CA COAST. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
REACH THE WARM LEVELS REACHED ON FRIDAY, WITH TODAY'S HIGHS ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES COOLER. AS THIS LOW DROPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY, EVEN MORE COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE DROPPING HIGHS TO THE MID 40S-NEAR 50.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH, ALTHOUGH LOWER ELEVATIONS WON'T SEE MUCH INCREASE IN
WINDS OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IN LOWER ELEVATIONS ADDING TO THE
CHILLY CONDITIONS. RIDGE WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG AFTER THE WIND
SHIFT ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME NE-E GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE ON TAP
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN THE BLENDED GUIDANCE HANG ON TO VERY
LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATIONG SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SCRAPING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERSHING COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECEMBER WILL START OUT CHILLY WITH STRONGER VALLEY INVERSIONS
MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO LIMITED WARMUP DURING THE DAY, PEAKING
OUT ONLY IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SIERRA
COMMUNITIES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING FARTHER OFFSHORE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE PREVAILING STORM
TRACK WILL CONTINUE FAVORING INLAND TRAJECTORIES WITH SHORTWAVES
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. A WEAK PRELIMINARY WAVE ON TUESDAY
BRINGS VERY LOW CHANCES (AROUND 10%) FOR PASSING SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST CA/NORTHWEST NV. OTHERWISE, THE
MAIN EFFECTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE INCREASING WEST
RIDGE WINDS AND A WEAKER INVERSION ALLOWING A BRIEF WARMUP INTO
THE 50S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN LOW IS PROJECTED TO DROP
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NV. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE FAST
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
(MAINLY AS SNOW DUE TO SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 4000-4500 FEET
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT). BLENDED GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR 1" SNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN SIERRA/TAHOE BASIN,
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF DOUGLAS-MINERAL COUNTIES, EXCEPT FOR A
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN MONO AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES WHERE THIS
PROBABILITY EDGES UP TO NEAR 30%. FOR WESTERN NV VALLEYS, BRIEF
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT COULD LEAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW
(10-20% CHANCE) BUT THAT'S ABOUT ALL IN TERMS OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT.
WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN WITH STRONGER RIDGE GUSTS
OVER THE SIERRA CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES PREVAIL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR SIERRA
COMMUNITIES AND 40S FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY, AND 40S
ACROSS MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS VALLEY INVERSIONS RETURN.
A MODEST WARMUP MAY RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGES LEAVE OPEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY NEAR THE OR BORDER. MJD
AVIATION
FAST-MOVING WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE AND ISOLATED LLWS, DUE TO INCREASING AND
SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
WESTERLY FL100/RIDGE TOP WINDS INCREASE WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 50 KT
AT TIMES BETWEEN 06Z-18Z LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY AM. THESE FL100 WINDS
THEN SHIFT TO NE-E WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AT TIMES SUNDAY EVENING-
MONDAY AM BETWEEN 03-18Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KT FOR SIERRA/TAHOE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. FOR SUNDAY, MOST TERMINALS CAN EXPECT A SHIFT
TO N-NE WINDS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT, EXCEPT STRONGER WNW GUSTS NEAR
25 KT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KMMH.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL REGIONWIDE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
AREAS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ESPECIALLY TONIGHT-SUNDAY AM
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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