263
FXUS65 KREV 100856
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1256 AM PST WED DEC 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
* HAZY SKIES AND MINOR REDUCTIONS IN AIR QUALITY POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING ACROSS LOWER URBAN VALLEYS.
* INCREASED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
DISCUSSION
YESTERDAY'S ATTEMPT AT RECORD HIGHS CAME UP SHORT BY 3 DEGREES FOR
BOTH RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE. TODAY WILL BRING SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES BUT MORE CHALLENGING RECORDS OF 67 AND 63 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY FOR RENO AND SOUTH LAKE TAHOE. THURSDAY WILL HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE WITH MORE REACHABLE RECORDS OF 64 FOR KRNO AND 59
FOR KTVL. HOWEVER, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PLACEMENT CHANGING LITTLE
AND REMAINING WEST OF THE SIERRA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE LACK
OF SUFFICIENT MIXING TO FULLY ERODE THE VALLEY INVERSIONS STANDS
IN THE WAY OF ACHIEVING THESE RECORD HIGH LEVELS. EVEN IF WE DON'T
ESTABLISH ANY RECORDS IN THIS CURRENT BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN,
HIGHS EACH DAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BRING SIGNALS OF THE RIDGE FINALLY LOSING
SOME OF ITS GRIP ON CA-NV, WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES
MOVING INLAND. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING WETTER
THAN PRIOR DATA WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVING NEXT TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH MOST SCENARIOS KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.25" OF LIQUID
FROM THE EASTERN SIERRA/TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD TO THE OR BORDER,
DROPPING OFF TO 10-20% CHANCE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NV. SNOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE 8000-9000 FOOT RANGE SO UNFORTUNATELY
THIS FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN A FEW WEEKS DOESN'T LOOK TO BRING
MUCH BOOST TO THE BELOW AVERAGE SIERRA SNOWPACK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAY ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF INCREASED BREEZES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS AND GUSTY RIDGE
TOP WINDS. WHILE THIS CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RUN SHOWS SOME
PROMISE OF INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO KNOW IF THIS IS A DEFINITE TREND, OR JUST ANOTHER
FLUCTUATION IN THE DATA THAT DOESN'T REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
UPCOMING RUNS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. MJD
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT BREEZES. URBAN VALLEY HAZE MAY PRODUCE MINOR REDUCTIONS IN
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES FOR KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. PATCHY FZFG AT KTRK IS
EXPECTED EACH MORNING THIS WEEK, MAINLY BETWEEN 10-16Z. MJD
REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
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