605
FXUS65 KVEF 221141
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
441 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY.
* DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT PRECIPITATION
REGIMES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTION EXISTS
IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP A
MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY HAIL) AND FLASH FLOODING
PRESENT THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE SECOND REGIME IS MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION AND COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE LOW.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MUCH WEAKER, BUT PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN WITH A
FEW STORMS MIXED IN MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
AREAS OF DEATH VALLEY THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW PUSHES INLAND TODAY,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-15 AND AZ STRIP (POPS 50-90%), WITH
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN I-15 AND I-40 (POPS 20-50%). THE
LOWER INSTABILITY TODAY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT COLD
AIR ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL KEEP A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL IN OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. BY MIDNIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO BE LARGELY OUT OF OUR CWA, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES (10-25%) RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD, BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
DRY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE WEEKEND, WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ON
SATURDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL BE CENTERED
OVER NORTHWESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL AZ. THIS KEEPS LOW SHOWER CHANCES
(10-25%) OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS OCCUR TO THE WEST. DRY AND CALM WEATHER FINALLY RETURNS
TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND STICKS AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 18 KTS LAST UNTIL 04Z THEN
WINDS REDUCE AND GUSTS CUT OFF. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 100
DEGREES UNTIL 06Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER INTO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LATE
MORNING THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
AROUND 18 KTS AND EASE AGAIN THAT EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20 KTS THAT WILL
LAST INTO THE MID EVENING TO EARLY NIGHT BEFORE REDUCING. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG WHICH WILL IS BEGINNING TO SEE GUSTS ARRIVE,
PEAKING CLOSER TO 25 KTS, AND NOT REDUCING UNTIL THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS DON'T LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN UNTIL THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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