570
FXUS65 KVEF 151404
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
700 AM PDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* IMPACTFUL WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
TODAY'S WEATHER FEATURES HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AND MODEST WINDS ASIDE FROM GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN WESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES AS A SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SATURDAY'S WINDS WILL TAKE A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MOJAVE DESERT AS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, WHILE
WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EASTERN SIERRA WILL TAKE A
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY IN WESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY GIVEN AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO CHANGES
APPEAR NECESSARY IN THE HEADLINE FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. HOWEVER,
MODELS ARE COMING TO A CONSENSUS THAT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STRONGER LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH. THE NBM SHOWS A 60
PERCENT PROBABILITY OR GREATER OF REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO SHOWING STRONG
INDICATIONS OF REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (GUSTS 58+ MPH)
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. BETWEEN THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE SHARP, FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT,
DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
BESIDES WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AS HIGHS DECREASE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BETWEEN TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-MAY, WHICH MEANS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN LAS VEGAS. THERE IS ALSO A 20 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES IN, BUT GIVEN A LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE, ANY TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT FOLLOWING TYPICAL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU
THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, EAST WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME SOUTH AND
BREEZY AROUND 21Z WHEN GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT DEVELOP. WINDS WILL STOP
GUSTING AROUND 03Z BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT- THERE
IS A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND SPEEDS OVER 10KT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 DEGREES TODAY 22Z-00Z. LOOKING
AHEAD- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER 25KT ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY,
THEN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CHANCES FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS
SUNDAY, CURRENTLY THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40KT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT KDAG, GUSTING 20-30KT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE GUSTS ENDS BUT
ELEVATED 10-15KT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-25KT EXPECTED.
THE EXCEPTION IS KBIH WHERE NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20KT WILL PUSH
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET EXCEPT AT KDAG WHERE GUSTS TO 30KT WILL DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON/CO
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