653  
FXUS65 KVEF 290934  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
234 AM PDT FRI SEP 29 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THIS  
WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES,  
VALLEY RAINS, AND EVEN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT  
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
 
A TRANSITION TO MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY AS A  
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST MOVES  
TOWARDS THE REGION. INITIALLY, AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE SEEN  
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GRADIENT WILL  
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY, INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR WIND  
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE  
COUNTY, WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE  
DESERT WILL ALSO APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS  
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED  
FOR THIS AREA. FINALLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED LATE  
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY, WHERE  
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF  
THE COUNTY AFFECTING THE US-93 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE  
ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH  
READINGS FALLING 10-20 DEGREES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN MANY  
LOCATIONS.  
 
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, IT STILL APPEARS  
THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE  
SIERRA, BUT SOME SPILLOVER IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OWENS  
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN  
OVER NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES, WHERE .25 TO .75 INCHES  
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE COLDER  
TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500 FEET BY  
SATURDAY EVENING, SO A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
NEAR ASPENDELL, AND SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL ALONG THE EASTERN  
SIERRA CREST.  
   
LONG TERM  
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY  
 
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING DEEP, COLD  
TROUGH OVER NEVADA SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THAT COLD POOL ALOFT FOR INYO,  
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. LIKELY SEE SNOW FLURRIES  
DOWN TO 8000 FEET ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, BUT WILL PROBABLY  
NEED TO GO ABOVE 10,000 FEET TO FIND ACCUMULATION. BY THE TIME THIS  
SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF  
NEW AROUND SOUTH LAKE WITH UP TO 6 INCHES ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. FOR  
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WILL NEED TO GO NEAR THE PEAK OF MT. CHARLESTON  
TO FIND ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
RUNNING SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LAS VEGAS FORECAST TO  
BE AROUND 73 SUNDAY. THAT'S NOT FAR OFF FROM THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM  
RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET IN 1971.  
 
LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT  
SHOWERS LINGERING IN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH  
MONDAY. HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR  
LINCOLN COUNTY EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
NOT AS COLD MONDAY, BUT STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
DRY, WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO  
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.  
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING  
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPEEDS  
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY  
WILL FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 15 KFT MSL SATURDAY.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO  
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATE THIS  
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES. A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE  
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING  
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND CLOUD BASES DOWN TO NEAR 5 KFT  
AGL AT KBIH.  
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...PLANZ  
LONG TERM...PIERCE  
AVIATION...ADAIR  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NV Page
The Nexlab AZ Page
The Nexlab CA Page
Main Text Page