232
FXUS65 KVEF 150855
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1255 AM PST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED DOWN
THE COLORADO RIVER BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND THE
URBAN CORE OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE PAC NW AND GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A WEAK
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOCAL. THIS LOW WILL CREEP
BACK INLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH VERY SLIGHT CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY NEAR
LAUGHLIN AND LAKE MOHAVE TODAY, BEFORE EASING FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN SEVERAL DAYS BY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS STILL THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 OVER THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT OUR AREA
WILL BE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH, WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING BY AND BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY GET MORE INTERESTING. THERE IS ALMOST EXACTLY A 50:50 MODEL
SPLIT ON WHETHER A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING DOWN AMPLIFIES ENOUGH
TO PULL SOME OF THE COLD AIR WEST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAS AN
OUTLIER SOLUTION A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOW
ESSENTIALLY A COIN FLIP IS CONCERNING. MOS GUIDANCE IS ALSO
SHOWING A COOLING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE USUAL
DIFFERENCES IN MAGNITUDE. THE NBM IS A GOOD COMPROMISE, SHOWING
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF COOLING AREAWIDE FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY.
THE NBM SUGGESTS THAT MOST STATIONS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY
MORNING, WHEN THE FEW ZONES THAT HAVEN'T YET HAD A FREEZE THIS
SEASON MAY GET THEIR CHANCE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY LOOK CLOSE TO ZERO AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PICK UP
AND SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. 15 TO 20 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHEN WIND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF AND WINDS
WILL SWING AROUND TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THESE LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...HND AND VGT WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING OFF AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHWEST RESPECTIVELY. WINDS AT BIH WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT, 10 KNOTS OR LESS, AND WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. DAG WILL SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICK UP
AND SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE 15 TO 20
KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. EED WILL
FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH 15 TO 25 KNOT WIND
GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DROPPING
OFF. IFP WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH 20
TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. BOTH EED
AND IFP WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...STESSMAN
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