478
FXUS65 KVEF 090735
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1235 AM PDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB TODAY AND PEAK ON
SATURDAY. AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE EARLY STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
TODAY AND SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON SATURDAY, THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH OF HEAT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITY OF HITTING 100 DEGREES IN LAS VEGAS
ON SATURDAY HAS GONE DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE,
CURRENTLY SITTING AT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. MEANWHILE,
DEATH VALLEY HAS A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF REACHING 110 DEGREES AT
FURNACE CREEK, WHICH WOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
MODERATE (LEVEL 2) HEATRISK BEGINS TO APPEAR IN THE DESERT VALLEYS
TODAY, EXPANDING IN AREA ON SATURDAY WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3)
IN DEATH VALLEY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MAJOR HEATRISK
INDICATES THAT THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. PLAN AHEAD IF SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS, INCLUDING WHERE TO FIND WATER AND COOL SPACES.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES START TO PICK UP ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER
HIGH TERRAIN IN INYO, ESMERALDA, AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES BUT REMAIN
SUB-ADVISORY. WAVES UP TO 1.5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN LAKE MEAD AND
LAKE MOHAVE.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY, WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE.
MODEL CLUSTERS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUNDAY SHOWING THE RIDGE
AXIS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE NEARING
THE WEST COAST. THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL
CLUSTERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AS THEY DEPICT THE INCOMING LOW
REACHING THE COAST MONDAY AND THEN NEARING OR REACHING OUR AREA
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE MAIN LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, BUT GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK, BAGGY TROUGH GETS LEFT
BEHIND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TURNING TO SENSIBLE WEATHER, FOR
SUNDAY, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN ZONES AND SIMILAR TO SATURDAY
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. WINDS COULD PEAK IN THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN SUNDAY, WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT MORE LIKELY ON MONDAY.
WIND HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP 15
TO 25 DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A
SLOW RECOVERY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, THE MOST LIKELY EFFECTS WILL BE THE WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (90%+) THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 8
KNOTS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
12KFT AGL OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS SURROUNDING THE VALLEY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A LIGHT, DIURNAL WIND
PATTERN WILL PERSIST AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. KBIH WILL BE
THE EXCEPTION WHERE BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KNOTS. DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUDS 12KFT TO 15KFT AGL NEAR AND OVER
THE SIERRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...MELTZER
LONG TERM...MORGAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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