309  
FXUS65 KVEF 080959  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
159 AM PST SAT FEB 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE REGION  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD  
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND  
NORTHWEST ARIZONA INCREASE AROUND MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS AN ATMOSPHERIC  
RIVER TAKES AIM AT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
BROAD TROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE  
WESTERN US FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ON  
TAP FOR THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE WEEKEND THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED DURING THE WEEK. HOWEVER,  
DESPITE THIS SLIGHT COOL DOWN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AT OR  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED  
IN WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT  
UPTICK IN NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ON  
SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTH BREEZES LINGERING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER  
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL PASS BY FAIRLY  
INCONSPICUOUSLY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCREASING MID-TO-HIGH CLOUD COVER AS THE SYSTEM  
CONTINUES IT'S EASTWARD TREK ACROSS THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN US.  
   
LONG TERM  
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL  
AVERAGES. SHORTWAVES WILL GLIDE ALONG THIS LONGWAVE TROUGH, WHICH  
WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOONS TO THE REGION - NOTABLY ON TUESDAY AND  
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS THEIR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXES PASS THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST  
IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEK, THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE PLUME REMAINS SITUATED SOUTH OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA OVER SONORA.  
 
MID-TO-LATE WEEK, A DEEP CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE WEAKENING INTO  
AN OPEN WAVE AND DIVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL  
GUIDE THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE SIERRA  
NEVADA, ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PERMEATE THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT.  
ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE PWATS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 0.50" ACROSS  
DESERT LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND  
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA LATE-WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS  
DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF THIS MOISTURE, BUT  
BOTH CONTINUE TO TREND LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH A FAVOR TOWARD  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NBMV4.2 IS THE WETTER OF THE SOLUTIONS, AS  
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF BIAS CORRECTING DUE TO THE DRY STREAK, WITH  
A 50TH PERCENTILE 72-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR LAS VEGAS AROUND 0.50".  
THE NBMV5.0, ON THE OTHERHAND, IS QUITE A BIT DRIER DUE TO A  
SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED BIAS CORRECTION, AND IS SHOWING AROUND 0.10"  
OF RAIN FOR LAS VEGAS. MEANWHILE, ONLY 3 MEMBERS OF THE 50 ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ONLY 3 MEMBERS OF THE 30 GEFS MEMBERS ARE DRY  
FOR LAS VEGAS LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE REMAINING MEMBERS CALLING FOR  
MEASURABLE RAINFALL.  
 
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS SO FAR THIS YEAR, NEXT WEEK'S  
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROMISING TO END THE LAS VEGAS DRY STREAK.  
HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH MENTIONING THAT AS THIS SYSTEM TRENDS LATER,  
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A FORECAST NEARLY A WEEK OUT FROM TODAY. AS  
SUCH, DETAILS ARE GUARANTEED TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, SO  
DON'T BREAK OUT THE UMBRELLAS JUST YET.  
 
 
   
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID  
GUSTS EXPERIENCED FRIDAY EVENING HAVE  
DIMINISHED, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY/VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING. THEREAFTER, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF  
PERIOD FROM AROUND 17Z-20Z THAT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE  
NORTH-NORTHWEST, INCREASING TO AROUND 8KT. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 10-  
20% PROBABILITY FOR WINDS TO REACH/EXCEED 10KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING  
BEFORE WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AROUND 09/09Z,  
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTERLY  
WIND SHIFT, CONCURRENT WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WIND  
SPEEDS OVER 10KT INCREASING TO 30-40%, THOUGH GUSTS WILL BE LIMITED.  
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE FAR LESS IMPACTFUL TODAY THAN RECENT  
DAYS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PASSING  
HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 20KFT WILL LEAD TO NO OPERATIONAL  
IMPACTS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE IN EARNEST AT KVGT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10KT AND  
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 15-20KT THROUGH LATE MORNING. THEREAFTER, A  
LULL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IS EXPECTED, BEFORE WINDS RETURN  
TO THE NORTHWEST LATE EVENING, BECOMING ELEVATED AND INTERMITTENTLY  
GUSTY ONCE AGAIN. KHND, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS FINALLY SEEN GUSTS  
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING  
VARIABLE THEREAFTER. KBIH WILL GENERALLY SEE NORTHERLY TO  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SOME VARIABILITY DURING  
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS THERE REMAIN LIGHT  
UNTIL AROUND 09/00Z, WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT IS EXPECTED, BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING  
AND REMAINING LIGHT THEREAFTER. AT KDAG,WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY  
TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH ELEVATED WINDS  
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KT THIS MORNING AND INTERMITTENT  
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP  
UNDER 10KT BY LATE MORNING, THEN PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON AND  
TONIGHT. LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS, KIFP AND KEED, WILL  
SEE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTH BY  
AROUND 17Z, QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED AND GUSTY. GUSTS UP TO 20KT  
ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. A SECOND PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS IS LIKELY AT KIFP  
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, AROUND 09/08Z ONWARD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE  
IS LOW FOR THESE WINDS TO PROGRESS DOWNVALLEY TO KEED BY 09/12Z. VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS  
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 20KFT.  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...STESSMAN  
LONG TERM...SOULAT  
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON  
 
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