737
FXUS65 KVEF 012159
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
255 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
* POTENTIAL FOR A MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE MIDWEEK, WITH ABOVE-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
ON A SURPRISING NOTE- THERE HAS BEEN A SURGE IN MOISTURE IN WESTERN
ARIZONA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ROSE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F AND PWATS HAVE
GONE FROM 0.30IN YESTERDAY TO 0.50-0.75IN TODAY. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY. VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IF AND WHERE THEY COULD DEVELOP AS MODELS SEEM TO BE LAGGING
BEHIND CURRENT CONDITIONS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY
CONTAIN BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS, IT WILL END QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
AFTER THAT, IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM OUR SOUTH INTO ARIZONA.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STARTING TUESDAY, A WARM UP IS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA BUILD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN MAX TEMPERATURES ON ENSEMBLES
AS THERE IS ALSO HINTS OF INCREASING MOISTURE THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY, HEATRISK IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY INCREASES
TO MAJOR STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND THEN SHOWS MAJOR TO EXTREME
HEATRISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO SEEING MAJOR HEAT RISK NOW IN THE
MORONGO BASIN AND A FEW SPOTS OF CLARK COUNTY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE
MIDWEEK AND TEMPERATURE/HEATRISK TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WHICH WILL DRIVE THE NEED FOR HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES LATE-WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TYPICAL OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 8KT OR LESS WILL RETURN AFTER
SUNSET. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY MORNING, BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR
OR SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F
BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z, WITH A HIGH AROUND 105F TODAY AND TOMORROW
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 15-25KT LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. WINDS
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET EXCEPT IN THE KDAG AREA WHERE THEY'LL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS/GUSTS SIMILAR
TO OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...NICKERSON
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