673
FXUS65 KVEF 041137
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
437 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED.
* MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRST RETURNING TO NORTHWEST ARIZONA
BEFORE SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
500MB HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN TO AROUND 596DM TODAY, BUT THE RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BECOMING A 600DM HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA
AND WESTERN UTAH BY THE WEEKEND. MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY BEGINNING THURSDAY.
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY SLIGHTLY TEMPER HIGH TEMPERATURES,
BUT IT WILL ALSO HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ELEVATED. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT HEADLINES THAT ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES,
REDUCING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD MAJOR OR EXTREME HEATRISK.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS IS
EXPECTED AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
INCREASE WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.25" IN KINGMAN AND NEAR
1.5" IN LAKE HAVASU CITY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVELS WILL REMAIN WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE HIGH WILL COMBINE TO
INITIALLY SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MOST AREAS, EXCEPT
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT DEEPER
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING STORM
CHANCES TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR
EASTERN CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE MORNING, WITH
INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 15-18KT. THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET, WHEN
WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. OVERNIGHT, WINDS DROP TO
AROUND 10KT, BECOMING VARIABLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL, WITH TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100F
BETWEEN 17Z-04Z, REACHING A HIGH OF 112F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EARLY THIS MORNING,
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ARE RESULTING IN INTERMITTENT GUSTS
TO 20-25KT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED. ELSEWHERE, WINDS THIS
MORNING ARE AROUND 5-10KT, AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT COMMON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. IN THE NORTHERN OWENS
VALLEY/KBIH, WINDS FOLLOW DAILY PATTERNS AND REMAIN AROUND 5-10KT
FOR THE DURATION, AND ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT INCLUDING
KDAG, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX TUE, AUG 4 WED, AUG 5 THU, AUG 6
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 114(1979)* 113(2024)* 114(2024)*
BISHOP 105(2020)* 105(2024)* 106(2024)*
NEEDLES 121(2021) 119(2019) 118(2018)
DAGGETT 114(2021)* 114(1998)* 114(1997)
KINGMAN 107(2021) 107(2019) 109(1920)
DESERT ROCK 109(2021)* 108(2024)* 109(2024)*
DEATH VALLEY 126(2021) 125(1936)* 127(2017)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN TUE, AUG 4 WED, AUG 5 THU, AUG 6
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 89(2024)* 89(2024)* 91(2024)*
BISHOP 75(1961) 68(1971) 69(1979)
NEEDLES 94(1908) 94(2024) 94(2021)
DAGGETT 82(1974)* 83(1998)* 84(1983)*
KINGMAN 78(2024)* 78(2024)* 79(2019)*
DESERT ROCK 79(2018)* 81(2015)* 82(1994)*
DEATH VALLEY 100(1925) 100(1915)* 99(2024)*
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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