653
FXUS65 KVEF 290934
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
234 AM PDT FRI SEP 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THIS
WEEKEND AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, DECREASING TEMPERATURES,
VALLEY RAINS, AND EVEN SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE SIERRA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR THE START OF THE WEEK, BUT
READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
A TRANSITION TO MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE OREGON COAST MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. INITIALLY, AN INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE STRENGTHENING ON SATURDAY, INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR MOHAVE
COUNTY, WHICH STILL LOOKS GOOD. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT WILL ALSO APPROACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY LEVELS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. FINALLY, A WIND ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED LATE
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR LINCOLN COUNTY, WHERE
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE COUNTY AFFECTING THE US-93 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
READINGS FALLING 10-20 DEGREES BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW, IT STILL APPEARS
THAT MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE
SIERRA, BUT SOME SPILLOVER IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN OWENS
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES, WHERE .25 TO .75 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 8500 FEET BY
SATURDAY EVENING, SO A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ASPENDELL, AND SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL ALONG THE EASTERN
SIERRA CREST.
LONG TERM
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING DEEP, COLD
TROUGH OVER NEVADA SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THAT COLD POOL ALOFT FOR INYO,
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. LIKELY SEE SNOW FLURRIES
DOWN TO 8000 FEET ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES, BUT WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO GO ABOVE 10,000 FEET TO FIND ACCUMULATION. BY THE TIME THIS
SYSTEM WRAPS UP SUNDAY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF
NEW AROUND SOUTH LAKE WITH UP TO 6 INCHES ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. FOR
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS WILL NEED TO GO NEAR THE PEAK OF MT. CHARLESTON
TO FIND ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LAS VEGAS FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 73 SUNDAY. THAT'S NOT FAR OFF FROM THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET IN 1971.
LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS LINGERING IN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY. HAVE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR
LINCOLN COUNTY EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD MONDAY, BUT STILL SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DRY, WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY
WILL FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS ABOVE 15 KFT MSL SATURDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TAF SITES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AND OWENS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING
BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND CLOUD BASES DOWN TO NEAR 5 KFT
AGL AT KBIH.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
SHORT TERM...PLANZ
LONG TERM...PIERCE
AVIATION...ADAIR
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