385  
FXUS65 KVEF 252214  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
214 PM PST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE REGION ON  
SUNDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND  
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE SAME SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS  
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. ANOTHER, MORE POTENT SYSTEM, IS EXPECTED TO  
COME THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO  
DELIVER A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS. TRANQUIL AND WARM  
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES IN.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
ANOTHER MILD AFTERNOON HAS UNFOLDED UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW  
ALOFT. ON THIS FLOW, BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM  
OVER THE REGION. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACK THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA.  
 
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS  
PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT  
BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO, PREFRONTAL AND  
POSTFRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP. A CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWESTERLY  
PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ROUGHLY PARALLELING  
I-15. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS;  
HOWEVER, A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS -- UP TO 40 MPH --  
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT (BARSTOW/RIDGECREST  
AREA). THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAKER, NORTHERLY POST-  
FRONTAL WINDS SUNDAY EVENING AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DRAGGED  
INTO AND ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT BY SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
IN ADDITION TO WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LIGHT SHOWERS  
ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SUNDAY MORNING AND  
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A QUICK-SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP IN  
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY  
OF PRECIP FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY EITHER, WITH MOSTLY VIRGA  
EXPECTED.  
 
ENHANCED WINDS WILL INCREASE THE MIXED LAYER DEPTH AND PUSH TEMPS  
CLOSE TO THE HIGHEST READINGS OF THE YEAR, WITH LOWER VALLEYS ACROSS  
THE MOJAVE DESERT REACHING THE 70+ DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME  
SINCE 2019.  
   
LONG TERM
 
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.  
 
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY DOWN THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER DISTURBANCE  
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE MONDAY AND  
STAY QUITE CALM THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING. TEMPS WILL  
DROP 4-6 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO PASSING COLD FRONT;  
HOWEVER, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
AFTER THE SOMEWHAT CALM START TO THE WEEK, A MORE POSITIVE-TILT,  
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DIG ITS WAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND  
INTO THE SONORAN DESERT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS UNFOLDS, THE  
FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHERLY AND ENHANCE AS THE SHORTWAVE  
DEEPENS. ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS  
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY; HOWEVER, DETAILS REGARDING DEPTH OF THE WAVE  
ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AND ARE ESPECIALLY EVIDENT VIA CLUSTER  
ANALYSIS. THE DEPTH AND WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE LOW-  
LEVEL MASS RESPONSE AND THE POWER OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS  
WILL BE THE ONLY DISCERNIBLE IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ALL THE  
PRECIP WILL BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER EAST. BARRING A DRAMATIC SHIFT  
IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, HEADLINES REGARDING STRONG WINDS ON  
WEDNESDAY WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS  
WELL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT FAVOR NORTHERLY WINDS. BY NEXT  
WEEKEND, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE WILL NOSE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND  
SHIELD THE REGION FROM ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS THROUGH AT LEAST  
THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LONGER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGING  
INFLUENCE.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
TYPICAL LIGHT, DIURNAL WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE THIS EVENING; SWITCHING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE BETWEEN  
03-04Z. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT  
WINDS TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BETWEEN 03-05Z SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT  
WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, POSSIBLE 25  
KNOTS WITH THE COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO 6-9 KFT SUNDAY  
NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH; AREAS ARE VIRGA ARE ALSO EXPECTED.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG  
THE COLORADO RIVER BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT  
WINDS FOLLOWING DIURNAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF,  
ALONG, AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL SLIDE  
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. EXPECT SPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS; DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. LIGHT PRECIP WILL SPREAD FROM  
THE SIERRA EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND AT  
MOST AIRPORTS; HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY LOWERED CEILINGS DUE TO VIRGA  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF VIRGA INFLUENCE, CEILINGS ARE  
EXPECTED AT OR ABOVE 5000 FEET.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT  
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...BOOTHE  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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