636  
FXUS65 KVEF 221018  
AFDVEF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV  
215 AM PST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, A BUILDING AREA OF  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,  
EXPECT PERIODS OF NORTH WINDS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.  

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES SO  
WILL LET THAT ADVISORY EXPIRE WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PACKAGE.  
 
GREAT BASIN UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW SANDWICHED BETWEEN A TROUGH OFF  
TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. COMBINATION  
OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND  
30-40 KT NORTH WINDS UP TO H7 WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY  
WINDS, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BACK OFF  
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY  
WHERE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE  
AFTERNOON. WIND AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY DAY.  
 
REGION WILL LIE UNDER A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY. RISING  
HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE  
WILL TRANSLATE INTO QUITE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES AT HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. VALLEY INVERSIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL MODERATE THE  
WARMING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT  
WEEK, WITH NUMEROUS WAVES RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW.  
OVERALL, A QUIET AND DRY FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED, WITH A FEW PERIODS  
OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA.  
 
TIMING BETWEEN MODELS WITH THESE SYSTEM IS DECENT BUT NOT GREAT,  
WITH GENERALLY A WAVE MOVING THROUGH EVERY OTHER DAY OR TWO. THE  
FIRST SYSTEM THURSDAY SHOULD BE WEAK, AND THEREFORE NORTH WINDS WITH  
THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. DID NOT MAKE  
CHANGES TO WINDS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, A  
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS  
DIFFER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE, THOUGH THEY ARE  
TRENDING TOWARDS STRONGER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE  
TO MODEL TRENDS, INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY. THIS MATCHED UP WELL  
WITH MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS. BY SUNDAY, MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT  
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE  
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY SWING THROUGH  
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SET UP  
OF THE WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS, MAINLY  
THE WIND FORECAST.  
 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN A FEW DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  

 
   
AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN
 
NORTHWEST WIND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS  
25-30 KTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL TAKE  
ON MORE A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-15  
KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER IN THE  
EARLY EVENING WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST  
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND AROUND 25 KTS AT KIFP, KEED AND KHII TODAY,  
ELSEWHERE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
TONIGHT WITH TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE  
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS.  

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO  
REPORT ANY WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING  
PROCEDURES.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE  
LONG TERM...WOLF  
 
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:  
 
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  
 
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