676
FXUS65 KVEF 251117
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
417 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
* THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK,
THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF CALIFORNIA, AND ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN CONUS TROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY, DEEPENING INTO A
CUTOFF LOW BEFORE MIGRATING INLAND AS AN OPEN WAVE. THE PRIMARY
VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON, PROGRESSING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, AND GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN, WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 60 TO
90 PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, ESMERALDA COUNTY, AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NYE COUNTY WHERE AROUND 100 TO 200 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, AND WHERE ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STEADILY
DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, DROPPING TO AROUND 20 TO 40
PERCENT SOUTH OF I-15. ADDITIONALLY, AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH, A LIGHT DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT, GENERALLY AT ELEVATIONS OVER 7000
FEET. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 TO 55 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
AND MORONGO BASIN, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, POSSIBLY STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
ELEVATED SHOWERS OR STORMS. AS TO BE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSING
SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY, DROPPING TO
AROUND 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
LINGER SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, THOUGH
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 0.75
INCH FOR THE DURATION.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED AS
PERIODIC DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE REMAINS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FINE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, GIVEN SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
DEPTH OF THE SHORTWAVES BETWEEN DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
REGARDLESS, THESE DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK,
WITH BRIEF WARM-UPS BETWEEN SYSTEMS, FOLLOWED BY SUBTLE COOL-
DOWNS. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH, A MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT OF THE AREA, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY
TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 12Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AT
10KT THIS MORNING WILL BE THE LIGHTEST IN THE TAF PERIOD AS WIND
SPEEDS OVER 10KT AND WIND GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE LIKELY (80%) THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS 20-30KT STARTING AFTER 18Z
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR RAIN CHANCES IN AND AROUND
THE VALLEY TONIGHT AFTER 00Z, WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE TERRAIN TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. KEPT MENTION OF RAIN IN THE VICINITY, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CIGS DROPPING TO 10KFT. LIGHT
RAIN, CIGS TO 6000-8000FT, AND SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IF
SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 12Z
WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20-
30KT ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF THE WEST TO 35KT AROUND
KDAG SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS TO 3000FT, MODERATE
RAIN, AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS AREA
OF RAIN, INCLUDE AT KBIH. FURTHER SOUTH, THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS LOWER AND WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN CIGS DROPPING TO 8000FT AND LIGHTER RAIN
TONIGHT. ISOLATE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF INYO,
ESMERALDA, AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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