431
FXCN01 CWHF 190909
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A QUICK MOVING LOW BRINGS LOW VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN RAIN
THIS MORNING.
- MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
- IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0600Z 19 DEC TO 0400Z 21 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY WILL BRING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
AS IT PASSES BY THE REGION. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MIST
AND FOG THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN DEVELOPS. HOWEVER
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT INTO THE REGION.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES IT IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKE IT WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. THE
RDPS SHOWS SNOW BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN
NEAR THE OUTER HARBOUR AND APPROACHES AT ONSET. BUT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SNOW AND HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MIDNIGHT
ONWARD WITH THE RDPS GIVING ON THE ORDER OF 25 CM BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
SYSTEM POSSIBLY NEARING GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. GFS NOW HAS SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 21 DEC TO 0400Z 24 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS. GFS SOLUTION SIMILAR.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST OF
HALIFAX STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS BACK THROUGH STRONG
NORTHERLIES TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES. BOTH THE GDPS AND GFS SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF ICE PELLETS NEAR THE HALIFAX AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILL MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES.
PERIODS OF SNOW LOOK TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW MORE
CMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY. LESS IF ICE PELLETS MIX IN.
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED. A RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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