215
FXCN01 CWHF 192113
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DAY.
- SNOW BEGINING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 CM CURRENTLY EXPECTED
BEFORE SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- ICE PELLETS LIKELY LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1800Z 19 DEC TO 0400Z 21 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TIMINGS AND AMOUNTS. SLIGHT STORM TRACK DEVIATIONS GIVE SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TIMINGS AND INTENSITY MAINLY FOR ICE PELLETS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD TRACKS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK LOW LEVEL
CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDY MOVING IN.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY
GIVING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID TO LATE EVENING WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW, AT TIMES HEAVY,
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 CM EXPECTED GIVEN THE
LATEST DATA. WINDS WILL INTENSIFY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO
GALES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 21 DEC TO 0400Z 24 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: SEE BELOW.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
BELOW...
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES BY TO THE EAST OF
HALIFAX STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS BACK THROUGH STRONG
NORTHERLIES TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES. BOTH THE GDPS AND GFS SHOW A
NARROW BAND OF ICE PELLETS NEAR THE HALIFAX AREA EARLY IN THE
MORNING SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILL MIX IN WITH SNOW AT TIMES.
PERIODS OF SNOW LOOK TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW MORE
CMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE DAY. LESS IF ICE PELLETS MIX IN.
IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW FLURRIES
ARE EXPECTED. A RIDGE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY FLOW ARE FORECAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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