251
FXCN01 CWHF 202105
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT EASING
TUESDAY MORNING.
- COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GIVING WIND CHILL AND FREEZING SPRAY
CONDITIONS
- WEAK LOW POSSIBLY GIVING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1800Z 20 JAN TO 0400Z 22 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. FALLING AIR TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH
THESE WINDS TO GIVE WIND CHILL AND FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL EASE AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY OVER THE
LABRADOR SEA AND FREEZING SPRAY AND WIND CHILL CONDITIONS WILL
MODERATE. HOWEVER ANOTHER WEAK LOW CENTRE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND THEN MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS IN ITS WAKE LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS SMALL WEAK FEATURE MAY
BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW IN THE EVENING.
HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE SMALL SIZE OF THE LOW THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE HRDPS DOES HAVE THE SMALL AREA OF
ASSOCIATED SNOW A TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN DOES THE RDPS AND IT MAY
MOSTLY MISS HALIFAX TO THE SOUTH.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0400Z 22 JAN TO 0400Z 25 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: IN THE WAKE OF THE LITTLE LOW LATE ON TUESDAY A
NORTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AGAIN. A MUCH LARGER DEEP LOW
DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND MOVES TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND
LEADING TO A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE HALIFAX AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BUT A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD IS FORECAST.
A WEAK RIDGE MOVES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY. THIS LEADS TO
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND SOME CLOUD AND FLURRIES. ON FRIDAY THE GDPS
SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BRUSHING THE HALIFAX AREA WITH SNOW EARLY IN
THE MORNING. THEN FLURRIES ARE FORECAST LATER IN THE MORNING ONCE
THE AXIS OF THE SYSTEM PASSES BY. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER LOW
ALMOST JUST A TROUGH THAT MOVES BY FURTHER SOUTH AND WOULD ONLY
LEAD TO THE FLURRIES. SO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DAY 5 FORECAST.
REGARDLESS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.
END/METOC-HFX
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