694
FXCN01 CWHF 172004
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS LINGER THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
TO THE NORTH THEN RIDGING GIVING FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
- INCREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
- STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLY SUNDAY, THOUGH STRONG SOUTHWEST
VEERING TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND WARNINGS
LIKELY.
- RIDGING GIVING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH EASING WINDS.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1800Z 17 APR TO 0300Z 19 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY SUNNY FRIDAY BEFORE CLOUD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS FRIDAY THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, EXPECT A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0300Z 19 APR TO 0300Z 22 APR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS GENERALLY THOUGH EDGED MORE TO
GFS/ECMWF/ICON FOR SUNDAY FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A WARM FRONTAL BAND LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION
GIVING PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY WILL TAPER TO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH
REMAINS UNORGANIZED AFTER IT TRACKS OVER THE APPALACHIANS. MOST
MODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY SUNDAY WHILE THE RDPS/GDPS CONTINUE TO GIVE
SOME, THOUGH LESS THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS. ADDITIONALLY, IF SHOWERS
OCCUR, THEY ARE MOSTLY BEFORE SUNRISE OR RIGHT NEAR SUNRISE.
EXPECT A FEW SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS A DRYER
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS WELL,
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AND
VEER TO STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHILE A WIND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW, IT IS MORE LIKELY IN THE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
FLOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY, CLOUD CLEARS OFF IN THE
MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND WINDS EASE. HIGH CLOUD BEGINS TO
SPILL OVER THE RIDGE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
END/METOC-HFX
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