397
FXCN01 CWHF 102010
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RAIN COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING, BUT OVERCAST OVERNIGHT PERIOD
EXPECTED.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO
STRONG NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
- SLOW IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY, BUT LIKELY TO TAKE MOST OF DAY TO GET
SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.
- DECENT START OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS.
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 1800Z 10 MAY TO 0300Z 12 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF
FUNDY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK INTO GULF OF ST LAWRENCE OVERNIGHT
AND IS FORECAST TO LIE ON THE GREAT NORTHERN PENINSULA OF
NEWFOUNDLAND LATER SUNDAY. A TROUGH HANGING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH HALIFAX OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE WIND TO SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST. RAIN WILL COME TO
END THIS EVENING AS THE LOW DEPARTS, BUT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST UNTIL OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOG AND
MIST WILL COME TO END WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. CURRENT ASSESSMENTS
SHOW SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL POSSIBLY REACH 30 KNOTS IN THE
APPROACHES, BUT THOSE GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 25 KNOTS WITHIN THE
CONFINES OF THE HARBOUR. THE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 25
KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN BOTH THE HARBOUR AND APPROACHES.
ON SUNDAY, THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRIER
DURING SUNDAY, BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CLOUDS WIDE OPEN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AT
BEST AND MAY EVEN TAKE TO MIDNIGHT OR SLIGHTLY LONGER.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0300Z 12 MAY TO 0300Z 15 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON MONDAY, THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS A HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. A SMALL AND WEAKENING TROUGH IN WESTERN LABRADOR DROPS
INTO THE MARITIMES. THE FLOW BECOMES MODERATE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH AND EXTENSIVE HIGH AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS INVADE.
ON TUESDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC EXTENDS ITSELF
INTO THE MARITIMES AND JOINS ITSELF TO THE HIGH CELL ALREADY SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
QUEBEC HIGH DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SEABREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. LATER IN THE DAY, PATCHY HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
WARM FRONT OVER JAMES BAY WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH CELL STAYS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, THE WARM
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
AND A NEW RIDGE EXTENDS ITSELF INTO NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED THIS
GIVES A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE MARITIMES, BUT WITH
SUNNY SKIES. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEVELOPING STRATUS DECK OVER
SOUTHWEST NOVA SCOTIA WHICH ADVECTS INTO HALIFAX LATE IN THE DAY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS DAY, PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25C, BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
OUR OPS AREA MORE SUBDUED.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page