837
FXCN01 CWHF 110716
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
-SLOW CLOUD IMPROVEMENT TODAY BUT LIKELY TO TAKE MOST OF DAY TO GET
SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.
-COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG IN A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0600Z 11 MAY TO 0300Z 13 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A MODERATE TO STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRIER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY
INTO THE MARITIMES FROM THE WEST, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT
WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CLOUDS WIDE OPEN UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY AT BEST AND MAY EVEN TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR
SLIGHTLY LONGER. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT DUE
TO SOME SURFACE STABILITY AND A BROADER PRESSURE GRADIENT. ON
MONDAY, THE MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST
AS A WEAKENING TROUGH FROM WESTERN LABRADOR DROPS INTO THE
MARITIMES. HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO STREAM THROUGH
THE REGION.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER
PERIOD OF COVERAGE: 0300Z 13 MAY TO 0300Z 16 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MARITIMES
AND JOINS ITSELF TO A HIGH CELL ALREADY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS DEFLECT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A SEA
BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. LATER IN THE DAY, PATCHY HIGH TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUD FROM A WARM FRONT OVER JAMES BAY WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH CELL STAYS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, THE WARM
FRONTAL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE
AND A NEW RIDGE EXTENDS ITSELF INTO NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED, THIS
GIVES A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE MARITIMES, WITH
COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING VERY
WARM INLAND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEDNESDAY, PERHAPS EXCEEDING 25C,
BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOCAL OPS AREA MORE SUBDUED.
A WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A
BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SLOWLY APPROACHES THE MARITIMES
FROM THE WEST. MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH COASTAL STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUING IS THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD.
END/METOC-HFX
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