743
FXCN01 CWHF 091952
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
WEDNESDAY 09 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-LIGHT WINDS AND NIL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
-SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
-LIGHT WINDS AND SUNSHINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 09 JULY TO 0300Z 11 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TO THURSDAY EVENING, MAINTAINING LIGHT
WINDS. CLOUDIER SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE IS
INFILTRATED BY UPPER TROUGHING THAT SPINS UP A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT
SHOWERY DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE HALIFAX REGION UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY, BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. PATCHY FOG
AND MIST IS LIKELY TO FORM OFF PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT,
INCLUDING THE APPROACHES TO HALIFAX HARBOUR, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
INFILTRATE THE HARBOUR AND BASIN.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 11 JULY TO 0300Z 14 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON FRIDAY, A LOW-PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES AND INTO
NEWFOUNDLAND, BRUSHING OR MAYBE EVEN SLAPPING HALIFAX WITH SHOWERS
AS IT PASSES. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FOR
SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTING
ITSELF OVER THE MARITIMES. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS SEEM
MOST LIKELY FOR FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHT NORTHERLIES ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND
THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELLING
COMMUNITY. REGARDLESS, WINDS SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT FOR HALIFAX.
MAINLY SUNNY AND CALM CONDITIONS ARE THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE MARITIMES.
END/METOC-HFX
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