363
FXCN01 CWHF 100748
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
THURSDAY 10 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-LIGHT WINDS AND NO SIG WEATHER TODAY APART FROM PATCHY FOG AND MIST
OVER THE APPROACHES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
-CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
-SHOWERS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
MORNING.
-IMPROVING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 10 JULY TO 0300Z 12 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS AND RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM. MEDIUM FOR FRIDAY MORNING SHOWERS..COULD
BE A NEAR MISS.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: CIRRUS AND AC CLOUDS THICKENING TODAY BUT STILL
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE APPROACHES
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. HIGHER CLOUD OBSCURING LOW CLOUD ON SAT
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. OBS ALONG THE COAST WEST OF HALIFAX SHOWING
PATCHY STRATUS. LIGHT WINDS TODAY.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TONIGHT TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG AND MIST. MOST MODELS GIVING A FEW SHOWERS
FOR HALIFAX AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND DONE BEFORE NOON WITH
EASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP TO GUSTS TO 20KT OVER THE APPROACHES TO
THE HALIFAX HARBOUR. LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ENDS, WINDS EASE FROM THE NORTH AND PATCHY
FOG AND MIST DISSIPATE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 15 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH FOR SAT AND SUN. MEDIUM FOR MONDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SAT AND SUN. ON
MONDAY MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. I
INTRODUCED A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD THAT DAY..CONFID MEDIUM IN MONDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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