247
FXCN01 CWHF 231908
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 23 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY.
- RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH/LOW THOUGH STILL WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNTS.
- SYSTEM CLEARS OUT NEAR DAWN TUESDAY THOUGH UNSTABLE AIR MASS
REMAINS OVER REGION UNDER BROAD TROUGHING GIVING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 23 AUG TO 0300Z 25 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A FEW PASSING CLOUDS TODAY, TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH
OF SUNDAY AS RIDGING MOVES INTO THEN SLIPS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE SUNDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH. AS RIDGE SLIPS TO THE
SOUTH LATE TODAY, EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
DEVELOP. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SUNDAY.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 25 AUG TO 0300Z 28 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY GDPS WITH SOME GUIDANCE FROM
EUROPEANS MODELS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN US
SEABOARD, A NEW LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF NOVA SCOTIA AND STREAMS UP TOWARDS THE REGION. CLOUD AHEAD OF
THE LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING. RAIN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RDPS/GDPS HAVE MOVED INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH FOREIGN
GUIDANCE THOUGH STILL A BIT LATER. AS WELL RDPS/GDPS HAVE SHIFTED
THE LOW FARTHER WEST, GIVING POSSIBLY HEAVIER RAIN TO THE HALIFAX
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEPART WITH THE
LOW NEAR DAWN TUESDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES BECOMING A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD. HOWEVER, BROAD TROUGHING OVERHEAD LEAVES THE REGION UNDER AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS GIVING SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS NOVA
SCOTIA. ON WEDNESDAY.. GFS GIVES A LOT MORE HIGHER CLOUD STREAMING
UP FROM THE SOUTH THAN OTHER MODELS. HAVE LEFT A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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