524
FXCN01 CWHF 240809
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 24 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- BUILDING RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
GIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AND INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN, WITH THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER TO
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND END EARLY TUESDAY.
- BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 24 AUG TO 0300Z 26 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RPDS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH, LESS CONFIDENCE WITH START TIME OF RAIN
MONDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND A
TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, EXPECT AN INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY. PATCHY STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THEN EXPECT FAIR WEATHER. A LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OFF THE US EAST COAST AND THIS LOW TRACKS UP TOWARDS
NOVA SCOTIA GIVING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
MONDAY BUT IN GENERAL, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
THEN TAPER TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. THE EXACT START TIME AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION STILL HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 AUG TO 0300Z 29 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED BLEND OF GPDS/GFS/ECMWF/ICON. THREW GDPS
SOLUTION OUT FOR THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
END/IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUD BY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING IS MOVING INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY REMAINS
SIMILAR WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY.. THE GDPS DRAWS A LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH AND
BRINGS SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO
SO WHILE THE REST KEEP THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SIMPLY
GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD. HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OVER THE
GDPS SOLUTION.
END/METOC-HFX
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