645
FXCN01 CWHF 241931
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 24 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- BUILDING RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
GIVE MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN, WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW/TROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN TAPER TO
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND END EARLY TUESDAY.
- BROAD TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 24 AUG TO 0300Z 26 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH, LESS CONFIDENCE WITH START TIME OF RAIN
MONDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS A TROUGH GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE
EARLY THIS EVENING. A LOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES
OFF THE US EAST COAST AND THIS LOW TRACKS UP TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA
GIVING INCREASING CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY BUT IN
GENERAL, RAIN/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THEN
TAPER TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. THE EXACT START TIME AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION STILL HAS A LOWER CONFIDENCE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 AUG TO 0300Z 29 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED BLEND OF GPDS/GFS/ECMWF/ICON. THREW GDPS
SOLUTION OUT FOR THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
END/IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. EXPECT A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUD BY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY REMAINS SIMILAR
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY.. THE GDPS DRAWS A LOW UP FROM THE SOUTH AND BRINGS
SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DO
SO WHILE THE REST KEEP THE LOW WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SIMPLY
GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD. HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS OVER THE
GDPS SOLUTION.
END/METOC-HFX
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