793
FXCN01 CWHF 081010
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SATURDAY 08 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHOWERS FOR MOST OF TODAY WITH MILD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS PEAKING NEAR 35 KNOTS NEAR NOONTIME.
- PRETTY DECENT SUNDAY IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS.
- MOIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 08 NOV TO 0400Z 10 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE LATER TODAY, THEN CROSS NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE PROVINCE ON SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REACH LEVEL ONE
OUTSIDE OF THE HARBOUR. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. 4-8
MM OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE SHOWERS END THIS EVENING AND THE
MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING CLEARING SKIES. HOWEVER, THE LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS MAY GENERATE SOME
STRATUS TONIGHT, BUT MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF THE NORTHWEST
WIND DIRECTION. SUNDAY MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUD, BUT
IT SHOULD TURN MAINLY SUNNY IN THE RIDGE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 10 NOV TO 0400Z 13 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STILL SEEING CONSISTENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
WEATHER ON MONDAY, THEN SOME DISCREPANCY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A GOOD COMPROMISE TO USE FOR THE FORECASTS
THOUGH.
ON MONDAY, THERE IS A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND, WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY PUSH DEVELOPING OVER NOVA SCOTIA.
THIS PUSH IS ALSO MOIST WITH SOME EMBEDDED TROPICAL MOISTURE
LEADING TO POCKETS OF HIGH QPF TOTALS OVER COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA.
ON TUESDAY THE SHARP TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA. NOTICED
ON THIS RUN THE GPDS IS FASTER AT BRINGING THE COOLER WESTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION, BUT STILL NOT NEARLY AS FAST THE GFS. BECAUSE
THE FRONTAL BAND IS SO WIDE, SHOWERS STILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY,
BUT THE GFS IS TURNING IT OVER TO YUCKY WHITE STUFF BY THE END OF
THE DAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE BLAST OF COLD AIR IS ENTRENCHED IN THE MORNING,
BUT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING IT BREAK PRETTY QUICKLY AS A NEW WEAK
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SHIFTS THE WINDS BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THIS TIME IT IS THE GDPS SHOWING
THE YUCKY WHITE STUFF OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN THE MORNING, BUT BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
PROVINCE.
END/METOC-HFX
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