329
FXCN01 CWHF 082109
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
SATURDAY 08 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ENDING THIS EVENING THEN PARTIAL CLEARING.
- NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY EVENING AND AFFECTS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- WEDNESDAY FORECAST A BIT LESS CONFIDENT WITH THE TIMING OF SHOWERS.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 08 NOV TO 0400Z 10 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG WITH PATCHY MIST
AND FOG WILL END/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING
BEGINNING NEAR MIDNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE PROVINCE THOUGH PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE INLAND
WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHTER. CLOUD WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MOVING BACK IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA, A FEW SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL
MOVE INTO HALIFAX LATE SUNDAY EVENING/MIDNIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 10 NOV TO 0400Z 13 NOV.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AS NOTED, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT GIVING SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
SECOND IMPULSE DEVELOPS ON THE COLD FRONT AND PUSHES ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS NORTHWARDS INTO NOVA SCOTIA. AGAIN.. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER
THAN THE GDPS SO THE EXACT TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IS NOT EXACT BUT
THE GENERAL FORECAST FOLLOWS. FLURRIES DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GDPS/GFS NOW HAVE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS.. ACTUALLY GIVING A POTENTIALLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A NEW DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST DEVELOPS AND
BRINGS SHOWERS. BOTH MODELS KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE ICON AND ECMWF MOVE SHOWERS IN QUICKLY
AND STILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.. AS THESE ARE
BECOMING STRONGER SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA, AS WITH
THIS PAST SYSTEM, STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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