833
FXCN01 CWHF 302008
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
SUNDAY 30 NOV
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN RAIN TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.
-THE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IS TRENDING TO GIVE MOSTLY RAIN.
-STRONG WINDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 30 NOV TO 0400Z 02 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
AND GIVE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN RAIN, MIST AND FOG. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE REGION, MAINLY FOR
THE APPROACHES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON
MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO WEST AND REMAINING MODERATE TO
STRONG AS THEY CONTINUE VEERING TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 02 DEC TO 0400Z 05 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO START TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE RESIDES OVER NOVA SCOTIA. A DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO TRACK IN DURING THE DAY AND GIVE A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
OR SHOWERS WITH STEADY RAIN THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN, AT TIMES HEAVY, WITH STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
TRACK JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH WINDS BACKING TO A STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES IN THE WAKE AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN AN
ABNORMAL DAYTIME TREND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND
LIKELY GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES TO THE HALIFAX REGION.
END/METOC-HFX
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