886
FXCN01 CWHF 010911
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
MONDAY 01 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS END THIS MORNING.
- CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
- MORE RAIN ON ITS WAY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- BIG BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR ON FRIDAY WITH MINUS 20 WIND CHILLS
POSSIBLE.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 01 DEC TO 0400Z 03 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS HALIFAX NEAR
NOON TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15 MM ARE FORECAST WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS REACHING 25 KNOTS INSIDE THE HARBOUR AND A
LITTLE STRONGER IN THE APPROACHES. THIS ALL TAPERS OFF NEAR MID-DAY
TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE PROVINCE. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION CAPS THE WINDS OFF.
A RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. THIS ALLOWS WINDS TO DIMINISH TO
LIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.
ON TUESDAY, THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEVELOPING STORM FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT MOVES INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY REGION. PRECIPITATION SPREADS
NORTHWARD INTO HALIFAX BY EVENING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT HAVE
MODERATED ENOUGH BY THE TIME PRECIP FALLS, AND THE FIRST FEW HOURS
COULD BE SNOW ACCORDING TO THE HIGH-RES MODELS, OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
FOR THE REGIONAL MODELS. MORE DISCUSSION ON WHAT HAPPENS OVERNIGHT
IS CONTAINED IN THE OUTLOOK PORTION BELOW.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 03 DEC TO 0400Z 06 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: REASONABLE HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE EAST COAST STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING RAIN FOR THE LOCAL OPS AREA
FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, AND CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN TO BELIEVE ALL BUT
THE END OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE RAIN, AND LOTS OF IT, FOR THE AREA.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER A COLD BLAST LAST IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY WILL CHANGE QUICKLY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY IN
THE DAY WILL GIVE SOME SUN, BUT A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT DIGS INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK IN THE MORNING AND PUSHES THROUGH HALIFAX LATE IN
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB QUICKLY DURING THE DAY AND THEN DROP
QUICKLY THAT NIGHT. A ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO A BLAST OF
FLURRIES AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.
ON FRIDAY.. HELLO WINTER! STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN THE
FIRST SIGNIFICANT BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. MODELS ARE SHOWING MORNING
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING MINUS 10C WITH A 25 KNOTS WIND WHICH
EQUATES TO WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 OR SO. EVEN WITH 8C WATER, THIS
WILL GIVE THE FIRST RISK OF FREEZING SPRAY TO THE AREA. LUCKILY THE
COLD AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY, SO JUST A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS
EXPECTED.
END/METOC-HFX
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