033
FXCN01 CWHF 182110
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
THURSDAY 18 DEC
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD TONIGHT
WITH RISING AIR TEMPERATURES.
- GALE TO STORM FORCE SOUTH WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY.
- RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY FRIDAY EVENING.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 18 DEC TO 0400Z 20 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER A LARGE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC ON FRIDAY PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTAL TROUGH TOWARD THE MARITIMES. STRONG SOUTHWEST THEN
SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WITH INCREASING CLOUD ALSO FORECAST.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER INCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES
ON FRIDAY WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS REACHING GALE TO STORM FORCE OVER THE APPROACHES IN THE
EVENING. PATCHY DRIZZLE THEN SHOWERS WITH MIST AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE TROUGH LINE NEARS. THE RDPS RUN FROM THIS
MORNING SHOWS 25 TO 30 MM FOR THE HALIFAX AREA AND IT IS POSSIBLE A
RAINFALL ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED. ALONG WITH THE WIND WARNINGS. A
THUNDERSHOWER ALONG THE TROUGH LINE CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT
IN THE EVENING AS WELL.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. SUSTAINED GALES
WILL COME TO AN END BUT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH
35 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 20 DEC TO 0400Z 23 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SYSTEM ON SATURDAY,
STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BLOW THROUGH THE HALIFAX REGION
AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
IN THE MORNING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR UP LATER IN THE DAY AS A RIDGE
PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
THEN ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY GIVING INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AT 20 OR 25 KNOTS. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
HALIFAX. ON MONDAY MODERATE TO STRONG WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS YET ANOTHER RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page