735
FXCN01 CWHF 192110
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
FRIDAY 19 DEC
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT
- RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY THIS EVENING
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 19 DEC TO 0400Z 21 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CENTRE OVER QUEBEC
WILL TRACK TOWARDS LABRADOR TONIGHT WHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
47 KNOTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING OVER PROPERTIES EXPOSED TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND EASE SOMEWHAT NEAR MIDNIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED GALES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AND GUSTS TO GALES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS WILL EASE BELOW 25 KNOTS OVER 12 WING SHEARWATER BY SATURDAY
EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY WILL TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS THEN
END NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 30 TO 45 MM ARE FORECAST WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS EVENING.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 21 DEC TO 0400Z 24 DEC.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AND A FEW SHOWERS. ON
MONDAY A NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
GIVING A FEW FLURRIES. ON TUESDAY A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
MARITIMES. THE DIMINISHING NORTHWEST FLOW MAY YIELD A FEW FLURRIES
EARLY BUT THEN THE WINDS LIGHTEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE RIDGE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK AND THUS TIMINGS.
END/METOC-HFX
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