249
FXCN01 CWHF 212112
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
WEDNESDAY 21 JAN
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES RISE.
- COLD AIR COMING FOR THE WEEKEND.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 21 JAN TO 0400Z 23 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL GIVE A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MARITIMES ON FRIDAY WILL BRING STRONG SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF IT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY IN BEHIND THE
TROUGH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT REDUCING VISIBILITY
AT TIMES AND POSSIBLY GIVING ONE TO 2 CM TO THE HALIFAX AREA. AS
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AIR TEMPERATURES RISE
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN AND MIST BY NOON. RAIN TAPERS TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 23 JAN TO 0400Z 26 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON FRIDAY ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE LOW SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES TOWARD THE MARITIMES STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT THE BECOME WESTERLY IN BEHIND IT LATER IN THE DAY. CLOUD AND A
FEW FLURRIES ARE LIKELY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR
MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY WITH
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES FORECAST. CLOUD AND A FEW FLURRIES
CONTINUES.
WINDS WILL EASE ON SUNDAY AS A HIGH MOVES OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
MEANWHILE A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. AND POSSIBLY WILL BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AS IT MOVES BY THE MARITIMES.
END/METOC-HFX
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