029
FXCN01 CWHF 222111
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
THURSDAY 22 JAN
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
- A FEW FLURRIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- POSSIBLE SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 22 JAN TO 0400Z 24 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THIS EVENING IN BEHIND A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MARITIMES. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH BETWEEN MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A COUPLE OF MORE
WEAK SMALL SCALE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. FINALLY MODERATE NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST LATE ON FRIDAY IN BEHIND A PASSING SHARPER
TROUGH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG COLD NORTHWEST WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD OVER THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BREAK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. THEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE FORECAST AS THESE WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY LATER ON FRIDAY THIS SHARPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND IT FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 24 JAN TO 0400Z 27 JAN.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION.
A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES AND COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES.
CONDITIONS ABATE LATER ON SUNDAY AS THE WINDS DIMINISH. ON MONDAY A
NOREASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA WITH SNOW BEGINNING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS.
END/METOC-HFX
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