233
FXCN01 CWHF 110910
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
WEDNESDAY 11 FEB
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- PERIODS OF SNOW BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORE GIVING NEAR 5 CM THROUGH
THE DAY.
- SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT TAPERING TO FLURRIES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING GIVING A FURTHER 10 CM.
- STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE
GUSTS BRIEFLY OVER THE APPROACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF FLURRIES.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 11 FEB TO 0400Z 13 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK EASTWARD PASSING JUST SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT IMPACTING THE HALIFAX REGION UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW NEARS STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF HALIFAX STRONG GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS
POSSIBLE FOR THOSE PROPERTIES AROUND THE OUTER HARBOUR AND
APPROACHES. WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST AND EASE
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT.
PERIODS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN IN THE HALIFAX AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE IN VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH TODAY
GIVING NEAR 5 CM. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING WITH A FURTHER 10 CM FORECAST BEFORE THE SNOW
TAPERS TO FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT NEAR 15 CM
OF SNOW ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT HRPDS MODEL RUNS HAVE OCCASIONALLY REACHED 20 CM IN
THEIR GUIDANCE AND THAT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
MODERATE TO STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES ARE ALSO
FORECAST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 13 FEB TO 0400Z 16 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FRIDAY SEES THE REGION IN A MODERATE GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID WEEK LOW. THE GDPS CONTINUES
TO SHOW NEARLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NOVA SCOTIA BUT A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD IS PUT IN THE FORECAST AS SC AND CU SEEMS LIKELY IN THE
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN QUEBEC AND
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. ASSOCIATED SNOW ON THE GDPS
MISSES THE HALIFAX REGION BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE FEATURE LEADS
TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD FORECAST. THE LOW ALSO OPENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR THE HALIFAX AREA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GFS TRACKS
THIS FEATURE SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST AND WOULD BRING LIGHT SNOW
INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE THE GDPS HAS THE LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY AND
A RIDGE DROPPING TOWARD THE MARITIMES. THIS GIVES A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUD AGAIN AND A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND.
END/METOC-HFX
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