025
FXCN01 CWHF 120910
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
THURSDAY 12 FEB
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FLURRIES COME TO AN END THIS MORNING.
- GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY.
- CLEARING SKIES ON LUCKY FRIDAY THE 13TH.
- A POSSIBLE WEAK SNOW EVENT ON THE WEEKEND.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 12 FEB TO 0400Z 14 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE BRETON THIS
MORNING WILL TRACK OFF TO NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE PROVINCE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE SNOW
FIELD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BREAK APART EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THE AREA SHOULD BE LEFT WITH JUST THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR
THE DAY. A GUSTY NORTH THEN NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH
25 KNOTS BEING HIGHLY PROBABLE FOR ALL SITES.
TONIGHT, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO CHANGE, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO CHANGE. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF BY 5-10 KNOTS, AND SKIES
SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, DESPITE THE CONTINUED MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW, THE
MODELS INSIST THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 14 FEB TO 0400Z 17 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: UNLIKE PREVIOUS SHIFTS, I AM INCLINED NOT TO
REJECT THE GDPS SOLUTION TONIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER EVENT. THE
GDPS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND I AM SENSING SIGNS
THAT THE FOREIGN MODELS, GFS, ARE HEADED TOWARD A GDPS-LIKE
SOLUTION. I DON'T BELIEVE THAT THE SOLUTION WILL WORK OUT QUITE
LIKE THE GDPS HAS DEPICTED AS THE FORECAST WOULD BE QUITE
COMPLICATED AT THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THE GDPS GENERAL TREND IS NOW
GOING TO BE FOLLOWED. OF COURSE, I HAVE PROBABLY JINXED THAT
SOLUTION NOW, AND THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A COMPLETE REVERSAL.
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE COMES DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF JAMES BAY AND MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES ON
SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTRE WILL ORGANIZE ITSELF OVER NOVA
SCOTIA SUNDAY AND PULL OFFSHORE. IT MAINLY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE
SWATHS OF FLURRIES IN THE PROVINCE, OF WHICH SOME COULD BE HEAVY,
BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT WHERE THESE FLURRIES WILL BE
AT THIS ADVANCE TIME FRAME. FOR NOW, A GENERAL AREA OF 2 CM OF SNOW
SHOULD COVER THE AREA, BUT SOME AREAS COULD SNEAK IN 10 CM,
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page