726
FXCN01 CWHF 122103
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
THURSDAY 12 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- NIL SIG WEATHER FRIDAY
- INCREASING CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY THEN FLURRIES SUNDAY.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 12 FEB TO 0400Z 14 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: NIL SIG WEATHER.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 14 FEB TO 0400Z 17 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT SPILLS INTO THE WESTERN MARITIMES.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE IS ONLY MEDIUM AS MODELS HAVE
IT GOING FROM FAIRLY UNORGANIZED TO QUITE ORGANIZED IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SUNDAY. I HAVE TAKEN
A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND EURO GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT AND LEFT THE
SUNDAY FORECAST PURPOSELY VAGUE AS A REFLECTION OF MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING MONDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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