355
FXCN01 CWHF 130751
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
FRIDAY 13 FEB
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-CLEAR AND GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
-FLURRIES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
-STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER PART OF SUNDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 13 FEB TO 0400Z 15 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE CLEAR AND
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY, TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 15 FEB TO 0400Z 18 FEB.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS/GFS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH EXCEPT LOW FOR TUESDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RELATIVELY SMALL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND GIVE OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AS THE
DISTURBANCE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND MOVES OFFSHORE IN A
DEEPENING TREND LATER ON SUNDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE MARITIMES AND GIVE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IN LIGHT WINDS ON
MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS A
BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CURRENTLY THERE IS A LOT OF
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELLING COMMUNITY REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PRESSURE FIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR TUESDAY FOR
THE TIME BEING. FOR NOW, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE
MAINLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR SHOWERS IN MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
END/METOC-HFX
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