421
FXCN01 CWHF 032105
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2130Z ON
TUESDAY 03 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EASING THIS EVENING.
- SNOW BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND ENDING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW ARE FORECAST BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OCCURING LATE OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP AMOUNTS TO THE
LOWER END.
- CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 03 MAR TO 0400Z 05 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT MOVED OVER THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWED STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EASE THIS EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTRE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTRE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD PASSING BY
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN NEAR MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RDPS MODEL KEEPS PRECIPITATION AS ALL SNOW EXCEPT FOR
THE VERY OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS OF THE HALIFAX AREA WHERE THE
SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN. HOWEVER FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS IN A ROW NOW
THE HRDPS HAS MOVED RAIN FURTHER INLAND OVER THE CITY, THE HARBOUR,
AND BEDFORD BASIN LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THAT
MODEL ALSO SHOWS A RISK OF FREEZING RAIN OR ICE PELLETS BEING MIXED
IN AS WELL LATE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 5 CM IF IT BECOMES MIXED
PRECIPITATION OR RAIN AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE 10 CM... IF NOT A
COUPLE MORE... IF PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW.
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AS
WELL.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 05 MAR TO 0400Z 08 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON THURSDAY A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
MARITIMES AND PUTS A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE
HALIFAX REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANT CLOUD FROM A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH GIVES A MAINLY CLOUDY DAY WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NOT
BEING RULED OUT AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CAP
CODE REGION AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACT OF THIS LOW TO THE HALIFAX AREA.
PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BROUGHT SOME SNOW TO THE REGION. HOWEVER THE
GDPS RUN THIS MORNING KEEPS THE SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE
INTERMITTENT JUST BRUSHING HALIFAX. GFS KEEPS THE SNOW EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH MISSING THE CITY.
THAT LOW WEAKENS AS IT EXITS EASTWARD BUT TROUGHING MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY. CLOUD AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW.
END/METOC-HFX
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