926
FXCN01 CWHF 040906
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0930Z ON
WEDNESDAY 04 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN INLAND, WILL END
EARLY THIS MORNING THEN CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM.
- PASSING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH GIVING A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THURSDAY.
- LARGE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING SATURDAY GIVING OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE DURING THE DAY AND A MORE DEFINED AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
- UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMINGS SUNDAY THOUGH FOREIGN GUIDANCE SEEMS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE GDPS.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 04 MAR TO 0400Z 06 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM EARLY WITH PRECIPITATION TYPING BECOMING HIGH
WITH CLEARING TREND LATER TODAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION NOW GIVING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WARMER AIR
MADE IT FURTHER INLAND CHANGING MOST AREAS TO RAIN ACROSS HALIFAX
REGION THOUGH PATCHY FREEZING RAIN STILL INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL
PULL OUT TO THE EAST EARLY WITH THE LOW THEN A CLEARING TRENDING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. SPRING LIKE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE SQUEEZED SOUTHWARDS INTO
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BY A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT PATCHY MID TO HIGH CLOUD BEFORE LOWER CLOUD
MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW GIVING A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES AND A FALLING TEMPERATURE TREND DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0400Z 06 MAR TO 0400Z 09 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS INTO SATURDAY THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR
SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: RIDGE SQUEEZES REMNANTS OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE REGION GIVING A SUNNIER START TO THE DAY FRIDAY THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM THAT THE GDPS HAS HAD APPROACHING
THE HALIFAX REGION WITH LIGHT SNOW NOW REMAINS WELL TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFFECTING SOUTHWEST AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA ONLY. THAT SAID,
SOME CLOUD MOVES IN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE EASTERLY
FLOW DRAWING LOW CLOUD OFF THE WATER ON FRIDAY GIVING INCREASED
CLOUDINESS. AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, A LARGE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC AND BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. INCREASING LOW CLOUD WILL
GIVE A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT BECOMING OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE
COLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH GIVING AN AREA OF MORE
DEFINED SHOWERS/RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GDPS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A NEW LOW TO COLD UP THE FRONT OVER NOVA SCOTIA
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE ALL OTHER GUIDANCE ALLOWS THE FRONT TO
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HAVE LEANED INTO FOREIGN GUIDANCE FOR
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS ENDING BUT REMAINING MAINLY CLOUD AND A STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
END/METOC-HFX
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