333
FXCN01 CWHF 240812
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
TUESDAY 24 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLEARING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EASING.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR THURSDAY IN RAIN AND MIST.
- GALES AND RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 24 MAR TO 0300Z 26 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO EASE. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THIS ADVANCING TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS EASING AND
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IMPROVING IN THE WAKE OF THE FEATURE.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 MAR TO 0300Z 29 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THURSDAY WILL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND
MAY BEGIN AS FLURRIES OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO PERIODS
OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN RAIN AND MIST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS.
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF A LEVEL 2 WIND WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER THE APPROACHES EARLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT RESULTING
IN A CHILLY WEEKEND.
END/METOC-HFX
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