571
FXCN01 CWHF 242005
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
TUESDAY 24 MAR
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR THURSDAY IN RAIN AND MIST.
- GALES AND RAIN FOR FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 24 MAR TO 0300Z 26 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
WESTELIES IN ITS WAKE. WINDS EASING WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 MAR TO 0300Z 29 MAR.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THURSDAY WILL SEE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ADVANCES EAST TOWARDS THE
MARITIMES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AND
MAY BEGIN AS FLURRIES OR A RAIN SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO PERIODS
OF RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE IN RAIN MIST AND PATCHY FOG AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS.
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF A LEVEL 2 WIND WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL SOUTHWEST
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER THE APPROACHES EARLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS
BEGIN TO EASE FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH IMPROVING
SKY CONDITIONS AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER COLD
AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT RESULTING
IN A CHILLY WEEKEND.
END/METOC-HFX
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