104
FXCN01 CWHF 052005
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
TUESDAY 05 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GIVING EXTENSIVE STRATUS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND PATCHY MIST AND FOG WITH DIURNAL TRENDS UNTIL
THURSDAY.
- SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY, THURSDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM THEN A
NEW TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH FRIDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 05 MAY TO 0300Z 07 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH TO MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: EXTENSIVE STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH SATELLITE SUPPORTING MODEL DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE STRATUS TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING GIVING A CHANCE OF
DRIZZLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. PATCHY MIST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE HARBOUR AND BASIN BECOMING EXTENSIVE OVER THE APPROACHES WITH
PATCHY FOG AS WELL. LOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HEATING FROM THE SUN LIFTING VISIBILITIES AND BURNING
OFF SOME STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON TO GIVE A FEW SUNNY BREAKS.
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER STRATUS WITH LOCAL DRIZZLE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING BECOMING PATCHY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKENED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. AS
WELL, EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING WEDNESDAY AS NOTED. AT THIS TIME, WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 30 KNOT RANGE AS THE LOW
LEVELS BECOME MORE STABLE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT RANGE IS
DUE TO EXACT WIND STRENGTH, SPECIFICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
TIMING/EXTENSIVENESS OF STRATUS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 07 MAY TO 0300Z 10 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH. LOCAL
DRIZZLE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EXTENSIVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY
DAWN BEFORE SHOWERS, LIKELY AT TIMES HEAVY, MOVE INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY
EVENING AS DRIER WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM.
ON FRIDAY.. UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH AND DAYTIME
HEATING TO GIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MARITIMES. CONVECTION
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY.. RIDGING WILL
GIVE SOME SUN TO START BEFORE PATCHY CLOUD MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH. GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOUD COVER ON
SATURDAY BUT BOTH GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE DEVELOPING TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
END/METOC-HFX
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