708
FXCN01 CWHF 060731
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
WEDNESDAY 06 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE APPROACHES TODAY.
-GALE-FORCE SOUTH WINDS ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY.
-RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 06 MAY TO 0300Z 08 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY THEN WEAKEN
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. SUSTAINED
GALES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY ON THE LEADING
SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, THEN WINDS WEAKEN
TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES IN THE WAKE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY AND IT IS NOW LOOKING QUITE LIKELY
THAT A RAINFALL ADVISORY WILL END UP BEING REQUIRED, MAYBE EVEN A
WARNING. MORE DATA WILL BE CONSULTED TODAY BEFORE ANY FINAL
DECISIONS ARE MADE REGARDING EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 08 MAY TO 0300Z 11 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING GIVES A CHANCE OF POP-UP
SHOWERS, MORE SO ON FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
AS WESTERLIES FRIDAY THEN HOLD AT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY,
IT IS LOOKING LIKE A PIPELINE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN SEABOARD AND GIVE
STRONG WINDS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, ALONG WITH
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE.
END/METOC-HFX
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