837
FXCN01 CWHF 262006
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
TUESDAY 26 MAY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
- BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SINKING INTO THE REGION GIVING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA THURSDAY GIVING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.
- MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD FRIDAY/SATURDAY BETWEEN LOW MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NEXT SYSTEM SINKING PAST TO THE WEST.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 26 MAY TO 0300Z 28 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING IN DRYING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THAT AFFECTED THE REGION MONDAY. BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKING INTO NOVA SCOTIA
TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS
NEAR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HRDPS
TRACKS A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND OUT OF THE REGION
NEAR DAWN WHILE RDPS IS MUCH SPOTTIER WITH THE BAND MOVING THROUGH.
HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THOUGH AMOUNTS WOULD BE LESS THAN 2
MM IF THEY FALL OVER THE REGION. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, THE
BULK OF THE RAIN REMAINS OFF TO THE EAST WITH THE DISSIPATING
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE A BROAD AREA SINKS SOUTHWARDS TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH
DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING ORGANIZED. ADDITIONALLY.. JUST TO THE WEST,
MODELS INDICATE LOWER CLOUD WILL SCATTER GIVING SUNNIER SKIES. IF
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER EAST, COULD SEE SOME SUNNY
AFTERNOON BREAKS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 28 MAY TO 0300Z 31 MAY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH BECOMING MEDIUM FOR SATURDAY.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: LOW THAT SINKS TO THE WEST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL
THEN ORGANIZE AND PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY SPREADING
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NOVA SCOTIA FOR THE DAY. EXPECT STRONG EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LOW WILL
CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ENDING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE BEFORE
DAWN FRIDAY. EXPECT WEAK RIDGING TO SIT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW AND AN ORGANIZING LOW TO THE WEST GIVING A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUD TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE LOW
ORGANIZING TO THE WEST WILL PASS THROUGH/NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE
SPREADING CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. IF
THE TRACK SHIFTS MORE EASTWARDS, MORE CLOUD CLOUD SPREAD INTO THE
HALIFAX REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. GDPS
CONTINUES WITH A FURTHER WEST TRACK, ALONG THE US COAST NEAR CAPE
COD BY LATE SATURDAY, GFS AND ECMWF TRACK THE LOW SOUTHWARDS
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE BUT THE ECMWF HAS A MORE EXTENSIVE
PRECIPITATION AREA THAT EDGES INTO WESTERN HALIFAX REGION LATE IN
THE DAY. CONFIDENCE LOWER FOR SATURDAY FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
PENDING TRACK AND EXPANSE OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD.
END/METOC-HFX
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