057
FXCN01 CWHF 191943
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
FRIDAY 19 JUNE
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE RISK OF A THUNDERSHOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
- A SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING RAIN ON TUESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 19 JUNE TO 0300Z 21 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN A MODERATE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE INNER HARBOUR WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE
APPROACHES. A TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON GIVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THE RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 21 JUNE TO 0300Z 24 JUNE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
ALONG WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ON
TUESDAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRIZZLE AND PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING AND TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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