395
FXCN01 CWHF 101849
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
FRIDAY 10 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH RISK OF LOW CLOUD / MIST.
===================================================================
SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 10 JULY TO 0300Z 12 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY HRDPS/RDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EXTENSIVE FOG AND
MIST FROM FORMING OR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION, BUT THE FLOW IS
ALSO NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE RISK OF SOME PATCHY
STUFF FORMING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE APPROACHES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE REGION
AND WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST, ENOUGH LIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED TO CAUSE CLOUD BUILD-UP ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST AND GIVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 15 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSULTED CHIEFLY RDPS/GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. SOME INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA AND MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE BUILD-UP NEAR THE
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES. HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO SHOW THE BULK
OF THIS BEING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH SHORE, SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT
TO EXCLUDE THIS FROM THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND AWAIT
FOR A DAY 1 OR 2 FORECAST TO PUT THOSE DETAILS IN.
ON MONDAY, THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK AND THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE. THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS FROM THIS FEATURE MOVING INTO
THE FORECAST ZONE, BUT DAY 4 DETAILS DO NOT SEEM NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME AS TIMING MAY CHANGE. A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH THIS TROUGH.
ON TUESDAY, THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY
SHOWER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH DRYING THEN EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRY TO
SHIFT TO THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY.
END/METOC-HFX
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