037
FXCN01 CWHF 110815
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 11 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY.
-FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 11 JULY TO 0300Z 13 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: PATCHY FOG AND MIST WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING WILL GIVE LOCAL CONVECTION TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GIVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 13 JULY TO 0300Z 16 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MONDAY WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER WITH AN INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
TROUGHS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT.
END/METOC-HFX
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