004
FXCN01 CWHF 111847
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SATURDAY 11 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TODAY.
-FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY.
-MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS IN LONG RANGE.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 11 JULY TO 0300Z 13 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: SKIES CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING WITH FAIR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT IN A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AS A
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 13 JULY TO 0300Z 16 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: MONDAY WILL SEE FAIR WEATHER WITH AN INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION GIVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
RESIDE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SO THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGHS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
END/METOC-HFX
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