463
FXCN01 CWHF 120815
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 12 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER FOR THE SHORT RANGE.
-A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
-A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO BE
MONITORED FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 14 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY GIVING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. A TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY GIVING AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE APPROACHES BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 14 JULY TO 0300Z 17 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: TUESDAY WILL SEE PATCHY CLOUD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH PUSHES AGAINST THE DEPARTING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW PUT MORE DEFINITION ON THE MAIN FRONT/TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS IS NOT FULLY REFLECTED IN THE
LOCAL FORECAST AS IT MAINLY FALLS OVERNIGHT BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE, SO
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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