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FXCN01 CWHF 121751
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
SUNDAY 12 JULY
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
-FAIR WEATHER FOR THE SHORT RANGE.
-A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY.
-A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO BE
MONITORED FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
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SHORT-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 12 JULY TO 0300Z 14 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY GIVING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-RANGE FORECAST. A TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY GIVING AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE APPROACHES BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG-RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 14 JULY TO 0300Z 17 JULY.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: TUESDAY WILL SEE PATCHY CLOUD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH PUSHES AGAINST THE DEPARTING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW PUT MORE DEFINITION ON THE
MAIN FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT THIS IS NOT
FULLY REFLECTED IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AS IT MAINLY FALLS OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN THE TWO DAYS AND IS ALSO IN THE LONG RANGE FOR NOW.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE, SO
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM DAYTIME HEATING.
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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