098
FXCN01 CWHF 240810
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
MONDAY 24 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- A FEW SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS WITH PATCHY FOG
AND MIST FORECAST FOR TODAY.
- CLOUD WITH PATCHY FOG AND MIST TONIGHT.
- A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 24 AUG TO 0300Z 26 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A BROAD OPEN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF ONSHORE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. THE HALIFAX AREA
LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE REGION AT GREATEST RISK FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS. SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. PATCHY STRATUS MIST AND FOG IS
ALSO LIKELY IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY MIST AND FOG. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
THIS EVENING BUT THE RISK EASES OVERNIGHT AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
BY TUESDAY MORNING THE QUEBEC LOW HAS WEAKENED TO A BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST MARITIMES. LIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY. LOW CLOUD IS FORECAST
TO BURN OFF IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER THIS LEADS TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 AUG TO 0300Z 29 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE: MODERATE TO HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE PATTERN LIES SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE MORE SUN
THAN CLOUD IN THE MORNING GENERALLY A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD IS
FORECAST FOR THE DAY WITH THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN
ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD FORECAST.
ON FRIDAY BOTH THE GDPS AND GFS SHOW A TROUGH LINE MOVING INTO
EASTERN QUEBEC WHICH SUPPORTS A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW OF MOISTURE
OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS WITH CLOUD
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
END/METOC-HFX
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