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FXCN01 CWHF 241946
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
MONDAY 24 AUG
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
- FOGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- MIGHT BE SOME SUNSHINE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- MORE WET WEATHER LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 24 AUG TO 0300Z 26 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS / HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE THE MOIST CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TODAY'S THUNDERSHOWERS
HELPED TO BREAK UP THE STRATUS AND FOG A LITTLE BETTER THAN
EXPECTED SO FLYING CONDITIONS WERE BETTER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS QUIET DOWN AGAIN.
TOMORROW MORNING, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT
OVER TOP OF THE AREA, SO THE AUGUST SUN SHOULD HELP TO BURN THE
STRATUS BACK TO APPROACHES, AND POSSIBLY EVEN REMOVE MOST OF IT
FROM THERE BY AFTERNOON. MODELS DO KEEP UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA, AND THE HRDPS IS SHOWING THUNDERSHOWERS FIRING UP ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 26 AUG TO 0300Z 29 AUG.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: REASONABLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RULED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THERE SHOULD EB SOME STRATUS AROUND IN THE
MORNINGS AND NIGHTS, AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE PROVINCE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT
MORE THAN LIKELY MORE INLAND. BY FRIDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
IS ADVANCING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS AFTERNOON MODEL RUN IS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, SO ANY PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE LATER,
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING.
END/METOC-HFX
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