187
FXCN01 CWHF 041956
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
SUNDAY 04 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- INCREASING CLOUD THIS EVENING WITH RAIN LATE OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WITH MIST AND FOG ON
MONDAY THEN SUNNY BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 04 OCT TO 0300Z 06 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS/HRDPS.
CONFIDENCE: GENERALLY HIGH.
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTRE IS FORECAST TO MOVE UP FROM
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH NOVA
SCOTIA ON MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST THEN EAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW THEN DROP OFF TO A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION NEAR MIDDAY.
SKIES CLOUD OVER THIS EVENING WITH RAIN BEGINNING IN THE HALIFAX
AREA LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW NEARS. IN BEHIND THE CENTRE MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY AND RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF NEAR NOON. 10
TO 15 MM OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WIDESPREAD
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN AND SHOWERS DRIZZLE MIST AND FOG ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MIST AND FOG SHOULD BEGIN
DISSIPATE AND SOME SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS
A BIT MORE INLAND.
MEANWHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL TROUGH TRAILING FROM A LOW
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE MARITIMES IN THE EVENING. PATCHY CLOUDY AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS
FORECAST IN BEHIND IT. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR IN THE EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 06 OCT TO 0300Z 09 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS.
CONFIDENCE:
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY NEARING
GALE FORCE GUSTS...AND COOLER AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL TROUGH.. SOME SC THAT
SPREADS OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD CLEAR UP
DURING THE DAY. WEDNESDAY SEES A NARROW FLATTENING RIDGE CROSS THE
MARITIMES GIVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLIES BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLIES BEHIND THE RIDGE. ON
THURSDAY A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
TROUGHING WELL TO THE WEST ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
END/METOC-HFX
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