908
FXCN01 CWHF 050811
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
MONDAY 05 OCT
===================================================================
KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- 5 TO 10 MM OF SHOWERS AND RAIN TODAY.
- CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
- CLOUDY, WINDY AND COOL TO START TUESDAY
- PERIODS OF SUN, PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE SHOWERS THROWN IN
FOR END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET MILD.
===================================================================
SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 05 OCT TO 0300Z 07 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA IS FORECAST TO PUSH SHOWERS OR RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
OF THE PROVINCE TODAY. HOWEVER, A MUCH STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ST
LAWRENCE TONIGHT AND WILL TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN FEATURE. A TROUGH
FROM THIS LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PROVINCE THIS EVENING BRINGING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SKIES
INITIALLY CLEAR. HOWEVER, IT BECOMES COOL AND UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT
AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER AND TO THE LEE OF THE BAY OF
FUNDY AND IT SHOULD BECOME QUITE CLOUDY BEFORE MORNING. DURING
TUESDAY THOUGH, THE AIRMASS DOES START TO DRY OUT, AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD START TO DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
LOW WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT AS THIS LOW DISSIPATES. STRONG AND
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE STRONG GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW
STRONG WEST WINDS BECOME TUESDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE AFTER SUNRISE, AND THE LOW LEVELS WINDS SUPPORT WINDS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS. I HAVE A BIT OF A CONFLICT IN THE
DECISION OF A LEVEL ONE WIND WARNING AND A GUST WARNING FOR THE
AREA. THE DIRECTION IS NOT THE BEST FOR STRONGER WIND FUNNELLING IN
THE AREA AND THE 35 KNOT WINDS ARE MARGINAL. THE DECISION WILL
LIKELY GET LEFT TO THE DAY SHIFT.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 07 OCT TO 0300Z 10 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF THE CLOUD AT BAY FOR THE DAY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER THE RIDGE PASSES.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IS GOING TO LIFT MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE MARITIMES. ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE QUITE CLOUDY BY
TIMES, THERE SHOULD ALSO BE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AT TIMES AS WELL. A
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST ALONG WITH MILD
CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND PATCHES OF CLOUD MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT I AM NOT EVEN
GOING TO TRY TO GUESS AT AN EXACT TIME AT THIS LONG OF RANGE.
END/METOC-HFX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page