035
FXCN01 CWHF 051933
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 2030Z ON
MONDAY 05 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- CLEARING TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
- CLOUDY, WINDY AND COOL TO START TUESDAY
- PERIODS OF SUN, PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE SHOWERS THROWN IN
FOR END OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GET MILD.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 1800Z 05 OCT TO 0300Z 07 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED RDPS
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT SLIDES TOWARD LABRADOR TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH INCREASING WINDS INTO HALIFAX THIS EVENING AND INTO
TUESDAY. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A FEW GUSTS NEAR
WARNING LEVEL 35 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT ONLY GUST TO 30 KNOTS. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY IN THE LOW TEENS IN THE
DOCKYARD BUT COOLER INLAND.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 07 OCT TO 0300Z 10 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: A FLATTENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD
MOST OF THE CLOUD AT BAY FOR THE DAY. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AFTER THE RIDGE PASSES.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IS GOING TO LIFT MOSTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUD
WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH MILD CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH REMAINS TO
THE NORTH AND PATCHES OF CLOUD MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
END/METOC-HFX
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