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FXCN01 CWHF 060813
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR OPS AREA ALPHA AND THE ECHOES, CFB HALIFAX
PROPERTIES AND 12 WING SHEARWATER ISSUED BY AVIATION AND DEFENCE
SERVICES OF ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA AT 0830Z ON
TUESDAY 06 OCT
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KEY FORECAST POINTS:
- GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY.
- DIMINISHING WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS TONIGHT
- SUNNY AND LITTLE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF SUN, PERIODS OF CLOUD, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WARMER FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
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SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0600Z 06 OCT TO 0300Z 08 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: RDPS AND HRDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN QUEBEC
IS FORECAST TO GIVE STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA
TODAY. BROKEN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COOL FLOW OFF THE BAY OF
FUNDY THIS MORNING BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MAINLY SUNNY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS WARMS SLIGHTLY. THE RDPS IS QUITE A BIT
MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR SUNSHINE OVER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL,
WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD BE BETTER IN THIS SITUATION.
TONIGHT, ANY LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT. A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER LAND, AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE
WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. OVER THE WATER, IT WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO GET THE WINDS TO DIMINISH, BUT THE INTENSE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE LABRADOR SEA AND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES, BUT IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT FROM MORE
NORTHWEST TO MORE SOUTHWEST. BITS OF CLOUD ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION FOR 0300Z 08 OCT TO 0300Z 11 OCT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: USED GDPS
CONFIDENCE: HIGH
COMMENTS/IMPACTS: ON THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIES NEAR
JAMES BAY AND IS PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE IN
THE DAY. CLOUD FROM THAT FEATURE PUSHES INTO THE MARITIMES LATER IN
THE DAY, AND THIS MODEL RUN IS SHOWING POSITIVE SIGNS OF SHOWERS
LATE IN THE DAY AND MORE PROBABLE FOR OVERNIGHT.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE TROUGH IS JUST CLEARING THE MARITIMES, AND
LINGERING CLOUDS IN HALIFAX LOOK TO BREAK UP DURING THE EARLY
PARTS OF THE DAY. MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING HIGH CHANCES AT
GETTING TO 20C IN THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
ON SATURDAY ANOTHER TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DIG ACROSS THE MARITIMES.
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE MUCH HIGHER THIS DAY WITH A LOT MORE
CLOUD. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A STRONGER NW WIND DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE MOVING IN.
END/METOC-HFX
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