300  
FXCN31 CWHX 231200  
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE  
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8.44 AM ADT  
FRIDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2022.  
 
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT  
 
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION  
 
AT 9.00 AM ADT, HURRICANE FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 N AND  
LONGITUDE 64.9 W, ABOUT 632 NAUTICAL MILES OR 1171 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  
OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS  
(204 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 934 MB. FIONA IS MOVING NORTHEAST  
AT 27 KNOTS (50 KM/H).  
 
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH  
 
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND  
ADT MB KTS KMH  
SEP 23 9.00 AM 34.1N 64.9W 934 110 204  
SEP 23 3.00 PM 38.0N 63.3W 934 110 204  
SEP 23 9.00 PM 40.8N 62.2W 935 105 194  
SEP 24 3.00 AM 43.3N 61.5W 936 95 176  
SEP 24 9.00 AM 45.8N 61.1W 937 85 157  
SEP 24 3.00 PM 47.3N 61.0W 938 80 148 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 24 9.00 PM 48.8N 59.9W 941 70 130 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 25 3.00 AM 50.1N 59.1W 944 60 111 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 25 9.00 AM 51.8N 58.4W 947 55 102 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 25 3.00 PM 53.6N 57.8W 950 45 83 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 25 9.00 PM 55.7N 57.5W 951 45 83 POST-TROPICAL  
SEP 26 3.00 AM 57.8N 57.3W 952 40 74 POST-TROPICAL  
 
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION  
 
A. ANALYSIS  
 
FIONA, NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE, IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE  
NORTHEASTWARD AT 27 KTS. IT STILL SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW, BUT THE CLOUD  
PATTERN IS LESS SYMMETRIC. ALSO, WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND IS  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE MOST RECENT RECON  
FLIGHT SHOWED SFMR WIND BELOW 100 KTS, BUT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE  
NEAR 110 KTS. BASED ON THIS THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF FIONA IS 110  
KNOTS. ASCAT MOSTLY MISSED THE STORM THIS MORNING, BUT WHAT IT DID  
CATCH SHOWS THAT THE INTENSE WIND FIELD AROUND FIONA IS STILL QUITE  
EXTENSIVE.  
 
B. PROGNOSTIC  
 
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE  
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE TRAVELS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, OVER  
VERY WARM WATERS, AND UNDER LITTLE SHEAR. LATER TODAY, THE HURRICANE  
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING THE HURRICANE NEAR SABLE  
ISLAND TONIGHT AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THEN  
POST-TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN  
MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA OR WESTERN CAPE BRETON EARLY SATURDAY MORNING  
WHILE DECELERATING SLIGHTLY AND MAINTAINING SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE  
WINDS. NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FIONA IS PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD  
FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AND THE NEW TRACK REFLECTS THIS.  
ALSO, AFTER MOVING NEAR ILES DEL LA MADELEINCE, THE STORM WILL TURN A  
BIT MORE EASTERLY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BEFORE HEADING INTO  
SOUTHEASTERN LABRADOR AND THEN OUT TO SEA. THE CUMULATIVE QPF FIELD  
FROM THE RDPS/GDPS SUITE IS INDICATING A PRE-CURSOR RAINFALL EVENT  
WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTRE BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING OR  
AFTERNOON.  
 
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)  
 
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE  
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW  
23/12Z 215 225 185 185 110 115 95 90 80 85 75 70  
23/18Z 230 240 210 200 115 120 105 95 80 90 80 70  
24/00Z 255 260 250 225 120 130 115 105 85 95 75 65  
24/06Z 275 275 285 245 125 135 120 110 90 95 65 60  
24/12Z 295 280 300 245 120 130 105 100 75 80 50 45  
24/18Z 315 285 310 240 115 125 90 85 60 60 30 25  
25/00Z 300 260 275 195 110 120 70 70 60 60 30 25  
25/06Z 280 235 240 145 100 110 50 50 0 0 0 0  
25/12Z 245 200 195 100 100 110 50 50 0 0 0 0  
25/18Z 210 160 150 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
26/00Z 195 145 135 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
26/06Z 175 130 120 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
 
END/TIRONE/MARCH/MERCER/HATT  
 
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