485
WOCN31 CWHX 061823
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR EASTERN CANADA
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:23 P.M. ADT FRIDAY 6 OCTOBER 2023.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
HALIFAX METRO AND HALIFAX COUNTY WEST
LUNENBURG COUNTY
QUEENS COUNTY
SHELBURNE COUNTY
YARMOUTH COUNTY
DIGBY COUNTY
ANNAPOLIS COUNTY
KINGS COUNTY
HANTS COUNTY
FUNDY
GRAND MANAN
LURCHER
BROWNS BANK
GEORGES BANK
SOUTHWESTERN SHORE
LAHAVE BANK
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE
HALIFAX HARBOUR AND APPROACHES.
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==DISCUSSION==
THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:00 P.M. ADT.
FOR POST-TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE.
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 3:00 P.M. ADT.
LOCATION: 31.9 NORTH 64.9 WEST.
ABOUT 50 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH AT 25 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MILLIBARS.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
REMINDER: THIS BULLETIN IS IN EFFECT ONLY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING HALIFAX AND ADJACENT WATERS.
PHILIPPE IS NOW DESIGNATED AS POST-TROPICAL BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST
RATIONALE IS UNCHANGED. METEOROLOGICALLY THE SITUATION IS SOMEWHAT
COMPLEX DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A SECOND LOW BETWEEN PHILIPPE AND
THE U.S. COAST. THE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT AND IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE
THAT TWO CENTRES WILL TRAVERSE THE CANADIAN FORECAST DISTRICTS.
FROM A BULLETIN MESSAGING STANDPOINT, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IN FLORIDA HAS CEASED MESSAGING FROM THEIR END BUT THE CANADIAN
CENTRE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE ON PHILIPPE AND THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE SECOND SYSTEM WHICH MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECASTS GOING FORWARD. WE PLAN TO ISSUE PRODUCTS INCLUDING OUR OWN
TRACK UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS IS THE SAME - BY SUNDAY MORNING
EVERYTHING WILL BE MERGED WITH A MUCH LARGER THIRD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER QUEBEC. THE CHC WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE AND MONITOR THE
SITUATION UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. ALL OFFICIAL WEATHER ALERTS WILL
BE ISSUED BY THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.
A. WIND.
IMPACTS:
WE DON'T EXPECT WINDS TO BE AS STRONG AS HURRICANE LEE SO IMPACTS
MAY BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE BREAKING OF SOME TREE BRANCHES WITH THE
OCCASIONAL POWER/UTILITY INTERRUPTION.
DETAILS:
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 70 TO 80 KILOMETRES PER HOUR ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS OVER EXPOSED AREAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWESTERNMOST AREAS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF
NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING YARMOUTH AND SHELBURNE BY MID-EVENING
SATURDAY. THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE HALIFAX AREA AND THE
ANNAPOLIS VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY.
B. RAINFALL.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20-30 MM RANGE BUT
THIS COULD FALL OVER A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND OVER 50 MM IS
POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL RISK OF FLOODING AND WATER DRAINAGE ISSUES.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
IMPACTS:
AS WITH THE WINDS, WE DON'T EXPECT WAVES AND STORM SURGE TO BE AS
BAD AS LEE, BUT THE SAME STRETCH OF COAST IMPACTED BY LEE WILL BE
AFFECTED BY EX-PHILIPPE. THERE COULD BE SOME WAVE OVERWASH AND MINOR
TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TIDE DURING THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
DETAILS:
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OVER MARINE AREAS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 5 METRES - POSSIBLY UP TO 8 METRES. THE
LARGEST WAVES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SURF AND STORM SURGE WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF NOVA SCOTIA EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST TO THE HALIFAX REGION. THESE CONDITIONS COULD BE IMPACTFUL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IF TIMED WITH THE HIGH TIDES. HIGH TIDE
NEAR HALIFAX IS AT 4:13 A.M. SUNDAY. HIGH TIDE NEAR SHELBURNE IS AT
4:50 A.M.
WAVES AND WATER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC IN AND
AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY DUE TO REDUCED AMPLITUDE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE
THERE THIS WEEKEND.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LURCHER, BROWNS BANK, GEORGES
BANK, SOUTHWESTERN SHORE, LAHAVE BANK, WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND EAST
SCOTIAN SLOPE - SOUTHWESTERN HALF. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
HALIFAX HARBOUR AND APPROACHES, FUNDY, GRAND MANAN, EASTERN SHORE -
WESTERN HALF AND SABLE - WESTERN HALF.
FORECASTER: FOGARTY/HATT
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA
END/ASPC
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