961
WOCN31 CWHX 181216
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
FOR EASTERN CANADA
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:16 A.M. ADT SUNDAY 18 AUGUST 2024.
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TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
ST. JOHN'S AND VICINITY
AVALON PENINSULA NORTH
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHEAST
AVALON PENINSULA SOUTHWEST
CLARENVILLE AND VICINITY
BONAVISTA PENINSULA
BURIN PENINSULA
GEORGES BANK
WEST SCOTIAN SLOPE
SABLE
EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE
BANQUEREAU
LAURENTIAN FAN
SOUTHWEST COAST
SOUTH COAST
EAST COAST
NORTHERN GRAND BANKS
SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS
SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS.
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==DISCUSSION==
THE NEXT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 P.M. ADT.
ERNESTO SLOWLY HEADING TOWARD CANADIAN OFFSHORE WATERS, AND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. ONLY
CANADIAN IMPACTS EXPECTED ARE MODERATE TO HEAVY SURF ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA, AND SOME RAIN AND MODERATE WINDS TO
SOUTHEASTERNMOST NEWFOUNDLAND. LARGE WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED THERE
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 A.M. ADT.
LOCATION: NEAR 35.2 NORTH 62.7 WEST.
ABOUT 1000 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 110 KM/H.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 13 KILOMETRES PER HOUR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 MILLIBARS.
2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACTS FOR NOVA SCOTIA WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SURF CONDITIONS WITH A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
OF THE PROVINCE TODAY AND MONDAY. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS FROM A VERY
TROPICAL AIRMASS - BUT NOT DIRECTLY FROM ERNESTO - ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE PROVINCE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
ERNESTO WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM AS IT
PASSES SOUTH OF THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND LATER MONDAY.
IT MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH, HOWEVER, TO BRING SOME RAIN AND WIND TO
PORTIONS OF THE AVALON PENINSULA, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
BONAVISTA AND BURIN PENINSULAS. THERE WILL BE LARGE BREAKING WAVES
GIVING A RISK OF SOME COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE SOUTHERN AVALON AND
PLACENTIA BAY. THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND COASTAL
STRUCTURES.
DETAILS:
A. WIND.
LATER ON MONDAY ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING MODERATE WINDS WITH IT. HIGHEST WINDS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE A CONCERN
FOR THE ISLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH FORECAST
UPDATES IN CASE THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTH. THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME ESTIMATES OF WIND SPEEDS TO BE EXPECTED AND
WHEN.
B. RAINFALL.
AS ERNESTO PASSES SOUTH OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA, A SHORT PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER A 3 TO 6-HOUR WINDOW. THIS AFTERNOON
WE WILL LIKELY HAVE ESTIMATES OF HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHEN.
C. SURGE/WAVES.
GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM, LONG-PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST-FACING COASTLINES OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THESE SWELLS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS SURF AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS,
AND BEACHGOERS AND SIGHT-SEERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.
FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LARGE WAVES WILL ARRIVE AND BUILD FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.
THESE BREAKING WAVES COULD BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME COASTAL
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY ALONG SOUTHWEST-FACING SHORELINES FROM BURIN
EAST TO AVALON REGIONS. REPEAT: THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR DAMAGE TO
DOCKS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES.
3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CANADIAN
OFFSHORE WATERS OF LAURENTIAN FAN AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS
FOR LATER ON MONDAY. THESE AREAS COULD ALSO SEE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 14 METRES JUST SOUTH OF ERNESTO'S TRACK. PLEASE
REFER TO OUR LOCAL MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILS ON WINDS AND
EXPECTED WAVE CONDITIONS FOR OFFSHORE WATERS.
FORECASTERS: BORGEL/TIRONE/FOGARTY
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALERTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE
CENTRE AND FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA.
HTTP://WEATHER.GC.CA
END/ASPC
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