551
FXCN31 CWHX 181800
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2.31 PM ADT
SUNDAY 18 AUGUST 2024.
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT
1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION
AT 3.00 PM ADT, TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3
N AND LONGITUDE 62.8 W, ABOUT 475 NAUTICAL MILES OR 880 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS (111 KM/H) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 978 MB. ERNESTO IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS (19 KM/H).
2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH
DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 18 3.00 PM 36.3N 62.8W 978 60 111
AUG 19 3.00 AM 39.9N 60.6W 978 65 120
AUG 19 3.00 PM 43.2N 56.7W 979 65 120
AUG 20 3.00 AM 46.4N 50.8W 982 55 102
AUG 20 3.00 PM 48.9N 42.6W 985 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 21 3.00 AM 50.1N 33.7W 985 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
A. ANALYSIS
DAYTIME SATELLITE PRODUCTS ARE SHOWING WILDFIRE SMOKE PARTICULATE
BEING DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION.
WIND AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED
AROUND THE CENTRE OF ERNESTO. BANDED PRECIPITATION IS ALSO QUITE
ORGANIZED EXTENDING WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM BY ALMOST 500 KM.
INTENSITY IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. FORWARD MOTION IS HOLDING
STEADY AT NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.
B. PROGNOSTIC
A VERY SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE LATEST STORM TRACK GIVEN THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST JOG OBSERVED NEAR NOON TODAY. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES CELCIUS
FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS LEADS TO THE CHANCE THAT ERNESTO
COULD BRIEFLY REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS CANADIAN OFFSHORE
WATERS. AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL THEN START
ACCELERATING ERNESTO TO THE NORTHEAST, TOWARD LESS FAVOURABLE SST AND
SHEAR CONDITIONS. A QUICK EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT
THIS POINT IN THE STORM’S EVOLUTION, BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE OF CAPE
RACE, NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
18/18Z 185 185 105 140 80 90 65 80 0 0 0 0
19/06Z 175 185 115 115 75 90 70 60 30 35 20 0
19/18Z 155 190 145 90 80 95 65 45 20 40 15 0
20/06Z 145 205 170 75 85 95 50 35 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 140 215 180 65 85 95 45 30 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 140 215 180 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
END/TIRONE/FOGARTY
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